Conference Paper

The Role of Solar Energy towards 100% Renewable Power Supply for Israel: Integrating Solar PV, Wind Energy, CSP and Storages

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Abstract

The excellent solar resources of Israel make it possible to reach the target of 100% RE, independent of fossil fuel supply in a rather close future. For now the development of large PV capacities is restrained by battery storage costs: before reaching a cost level of 200 €/kWh, batteries are not competitive and installations of thermal storages and CSP are cost optimal. The role of CSP remains unclear; however, the high competitiveness of PV-battery may limit CSP to a minor role. PV self-consumption plays a significant role in the energy transformation in Israel.

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... To date, several studies have investigated the interaction between PV-BES and CSP-TES by focusing on the technology that minimize the LCOE under different cost scenarios, amount of storage and services provided by each technology. Bogdanov et al. [96] analyze the role of solar energy towards a 100% RE power supply for Israel and found that under current (2020) cost, PV-BES capacities increase linearly till a 30% RE share due to low PV LCOE. After the 30% RE share threshold, PV stagnates due to expensive BES while CSP-TES is integrated due to cheap TES. ...
... Weitemeyer et al. [541] use the same approach for the European power supply. Moreover, the literature cited above (such as [113,96,194,126,401]) is limited to a mere comparison of the Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) or the total cost to assess the economic attractiveness of different generation technologies. ...
... This modeling framework could also be implemented in future warming climate to assess the impact of climate change on optimal mixes compared to cost effect and the role of CSP-TES flexibility in reducing the Moroccan climate sensitivity (Chapter 5). 96 ...
... Optimal mixes under high penetration scenarios are expected to combine different technological options with energy storage systems [1,2] because each technology has Recently, the cost and storage effect that solar technologies PV and CSP with their associated storage (BES and TES) have on an energy mix have been addressed in literature. Bogdanov et al. (2015) [52] analyze the role of these technologies towards 100% RE mix. Feldman et al. (2016) [48] use a range of cost projections to compare the competitivity of PV-BES and CSP-TES through 2030. ...
... Optimal mixes under high penetration scenarios are expected to combine different technological options with energy storage systems [1,2] because each technology has Recently, the cost and storage effect that solar technologies PV and CSP with their associated storage (BES and TES) have on an energy mix have been addressed in literature. Bogdanov et al. (2015) [52] analyze the role of these technologies towards 100% RE mix. Feldman et al. (2016) [48] use a range of cost projections to compare the competitivity of PV-BES and CSP-TES through 2030. ...
... Papadopoulou et al. (2020) [57] assess the techno-economic performance of combination of these technologies with offshore wind with storage. Overall, these publications [48,[52][53][54][55][56][57] tend to analyze the competitiveness of PV-BES with CSP-TES over a range of storage requirements and under several projected cost declines for PV, batteries and CSP, focusing only on generation costs. However, the inherent differences between these technologies cannot be examined using a single metric as both provide different grid services and different economic values. ...
Article
Full-text available
In this study, we examine how Battery Storage (BES) and Thermal Storage (TES) combined with solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies with an increased storage duration and rental cost together with diversification would influence the Moroccan mix and to what extent the variability (i.e., adequacy risk) can be reduced; this is done using recent (2013) cost data and under various penetration scenarios. To do this, we use MERRA-2 climate reanalysis to simulate hourly demand and capacity factors (CFs) of wind, solar PV and CSP without and with increasing storage capabilities—as defined by the CSP Solar Multiple (SM) and PV Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR). We adjust these time series to observations for the four Moroccan electrical zones over the year 2018. Our objective is to maximize the renewable (RE) penetration and minimize the imbalances between RE production and consumption considering three optimization strategies. We analyze mixes along Pareto fronts using the Mean-Variance Portfolio approach—implemented in the E4CLIM model—in which we add a maximum-cost constraint to take into account the different rental costs of wind, PV and CSP. We propose a method to calculate the rental cost of storage and production technologies taking into account the constraints on storage associated with the increase of SM and ILR in the added PV-BES and CSP-TES modules, keeping the mean solar CFs fixed. We perform some load bands-reduction diagnostics to assess the reliability benefits provided by each RE technology. We find that, at low penetrations, the maximum-cost budget is not reached because a small capacity is needed. The higher the ILR for PV, the larger the share of PV in the mix compared to wind and CSP without storage is removed completely. Between PV-BES and CSP-TES, the latter is preferred as it has larger storage capacity and thus stronger impact in reducing the adequacy risk. As additional BES are installed, more than TES, PV-BES is favored. At high penetrations, optimal mixes are impacted by cost, the more so as CSP (resp., PV) with high SM (resp., ILR) are installed. Wind is preferably installed due to its high mean CF compared to cost, followed by either PV-BES or CSP/CSP-TES. Scenarios without or with medium storage capacity favor CSP/CSP-TES, while high storage duration scenarios are dominated by low-cost PV-BES. However, scenarios ignoring the storage cost and constraints provide more weight to PV-BES whatever the penetration level. We also show that significant reduction of RE variability can only be achieved through geographical diversification. Technological complementarity may only help to reduce the variance when PV and CSP are both installed without or with a small amount of storage. However, the diversification effect is slightly smaller when the SM and ILR are increased and the covariances are reduced as well since mixes become less diversified.
... To date, several studies have investigated the interaction between PV-BES and CSP-TES by focusing on the technology that minimize the LCOE under different cost scenarios, amount of storage and services provided by each technology. Bogdanov et al. [96] analyze the role of solar energy towards a 100% RE power supply for Israel and found that under current (2020) cost, PV-BES capacities increase linearly till a 30% RE share due to low PV LCOE. After the 30% RE share threshold, PV stagnates due to expensive BES while CSP-TES is integrated due to cheap TES. ...
... Weitemeyer et al. [541] use the same approach for the European power supply. Moreover, the literature cited above (such as [113,96,194,126,401]) is limited to a mere comparison of the Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) or the total cost to assess the economic attractiveness of different generation technologies. ...
... This modeling framework could also be implemented in future warming climate to assess the impact of climate change on optimal mixes compared to cost effect and the role of CSP-TES flexibility in reducing the Moroccan climate sensitivity (Chapter 5). 96 ...
Thesis
Full-text available
It appears that at the moment, many countries tend to favor Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) combined with its low-cost Thermal Energy Storage (TES) system over Photovoltaic (PV) as it can enhance the resilience of their energy system. However, their interplay in optimal mixes has not yet been addressed deeply enough by any study and particularly to confirm this perception in future warming climate. For instance, if the judging criteria is only money, does PV stand at a leading position? but, it is not fairly to justify those two technologies merely by cost but also by the correlation of production with peak consumption. Here comes another question: PV or its counterpart CSP? as they have distinct sensitivity to temperature and clouds. Moreover, if PV is coupled with expensive Battery Energy Storage (BES), does this mean CSP-TES will be replaced by PV-BES? This thesis discusses a set of scenarios of large-scale solar integration with wind in optimal Moroccan prospective mix under different penetration levels, storage configurations and combinations of renewable (RE) technologies. We take as objective not only to maximize the RE production, but also to reduce its variability. This Mean-Variance approach is implemented in the E4CLIM model, which we have adapted to the four Moroccan electricity zones to fit the demand model and correct biases in the Capacity Factors (CFs) calculated using climate data; ignoring the grid constraints and exchanges of electricity with neighboring countries. We add a maximum-total cost constraint to the optimization problem; and propose a method to define the rental cost of each production technology taking their dependence on the hours of production into account, which is designed in the developed storage model implemented to BES and to the added CSP-TES modules. We present, for each penetration regime, some ratios that contribute to determine what region a given capacity will be assigned to; and propose some production-demand adequacy diagnostics to evaluate which technology displaces more expensive fossil fuel generators during peak, mid and base load hours; and which one increase or reduce the curtailment. The first study addresses the questions associated with wind/PV/CSP/CSP-TES integration while the second study determines the conditions under which CSP-TES can provide an advantage against PV-BES so as to be part of the mix until a more advantageous condition prevents its integration; by examining how the integration of CSP and storage would influence the benefits from time-space complementarity in the actual climate. We conclude that contrary to the integration of CSP/CSP-TES with PV, the addition of BES to PV reveals a higher sensitivity of the mixes to solar technologies not only at low penetrations due to the reduced variability but also at high penetrations due to the differences in the storage capacity and cost. Finally, the third study assesses the impact of climate change on the resources and their implications on CFs and demand by the end-21st century relative to the historical observed forcing. We find that there are some indications of a potential impact in mixes with high penetrations but which are trivial with the eventual cost reduction effect on capacity pathways projected by climate models.However, climate change is unlikely to have a discernible effect on optimal mixes with low proportions of REs, but the key message is that the future impact on each technology is considered to be highly uncertain. We discuss the sources of uncertainty and the main options for climate-resilient RE mixes.
... This system eliminates the reliance of SWRO desalination plants on non-renewable fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, reflecting the Saudi government's vision of high renewable energy capacities, there is recent literature that discusses the 100% renewable energy transition of different countries and regions [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32], as well as detailed visualization of respective electricity systems [33]. ...
... This result documents the outstanding impact of low cost solar PV supported by low cost battery storage that lead to a solar PV electricity generation share of 79%, which is significantly higher than the average of about 40% found in the global average assumptions for the year 2030 [25], but also higher than the 48% solar PV share for the MENA region [66]. However, comparable results had been found already earlier for the case of Israel [30], where the solar PV share had be found for cost optimized systems to about 90% of the total electricity supply. It has to be noted that Israel has less good wind conditions as in Saudi Arabia, and [30] was done for assumptions about the year 2030. ...
... However, comparable results had been found already earlier for the case of Israel [30], where the solar PV share had be found for cost optimized systems to about 90% of the total electricity supply. It has to be noted that Israel has less good wind conditions as in Saudi Arabia, and [30] was done for assumptions about the year 2030. Breyer et al. [41] discuss the significant role of solar photovoltaics, estimated to have an electricity generation share of 69% by 2050, in the global energy transition. ...
Article
Full-text available
This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy-based system by 2050 and investigates the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. Saudi Arabia can achieve 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 while meeting increasing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) and multiple effect distillation (MED) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 243 GW and 83 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 49 €/MWh and decreases to 41 €/MWh by 2050. Corresponding levelised cost of water (LCOW) is found to be 0.8 €/m3 and 0.6 €/m3. PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector. By 2050 solar PV accounts for 79% of total electricity generation. Battery storage accounts for 41% of total electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-to-gas (PtG) plants as well as a reduction in curtailment. Thus, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 1–3% less than the non-integrated scenario.
... This is seen as SOC begins the week at 0% and then quickly shoots up to 100% at midweek. Over the year, stationary batteries spend a vast majority of time either being fully charged or fully discharged, with just 5 full load cycles annually, which merits further investigation as other results clearly show about 200-300 full load cycles annually [31,32]. The daily function of electricity storage appears to be allocated to V2G batteries, with 129 full load cycles annually. ...
... The integration of high shares of renewable energy sources in future energy systems will require a variety of complementary storage solutions. It has been previously determined that electricity storage devices will be needed once 50% of power demand is met with variable RE, and that seasonal storage devices will be needed once more than 80% of electricity demand is met by RE [32,38]. Currently, there is a long list of energy system flexibility measures available to support high levels of intermittent RE [39]. ...
Conference Paper
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE), not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar PV can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV (up to 29 TWhe, or 16% of annual electricity production) and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-toGas (PtG) technology. Approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without faith in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin.
... Results also indicate that PtG provides a longer-term, seasonal storage for the Ukraine power system. This result is in line with several studies that show the importance of a mix of storage strategies [37]- [39]. ...
... In that time, the relevance of storage solutions increases significantly. This is in line with previous studies which suggest that electricity storage devices would be needed after a 50% penetration of renewable energy, and that seasonal storage would be needed after the share exceeded 80% [37], [38]. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Modelling of the power system proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities as well as their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand in order to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 94 €/MWhe to 54 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies. Several solutions are identified which can enable the transition towards the long-term sustainability of the Ukraine energy system.
... Results also indicate that PtG provides a longer-term, seasonal storage for the Ukraine power system. This result is in line with several studies that show the importance of a mix of storage strategies [37]- [39]. ...
... In that time, the relevance of storage solutions increases significantly. This is in line with previous studies which suggest that electricity storage devices would be needed after a 50% penetration of renewable energy, and that seasonal storage would be needed after the share exceeded 80% [37], [38]. ...
Article
Full-text available
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 82 €/MWhe to 60 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050, the cost would be 54 €/MWhe, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies.
... Results also indicate that PtG provides a longer-term, seasonal storage for the Ukraine power system. This result is in line with several studies that show the importance of a mix of storage strategies [37]- [39]. ...
... In that time, the relevance of storage solutions increases significantly. This is in line with previous studies which suggest that electricity storage devices would be needed after a 50% penetration of renewable energy, and that seasonal storage would be needed after the share exceeded 80% [37], [38]. ...
Presentation
Full-text available
Presentation on the occasion of the Sustainable Energy Forum and Exhibition (SEF-2016), Kiev, October 11, 2016.
... However, due to the lower energy consumption and improvement in technology, reverse osmosis is expected to dominate the Saudi market in the future [18]. [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. ...
... This result documents the outstanding impact of low cost solar PV supported by low cost battery storage which leads to a solar PV electricity generation share of 80%, which is significantly higher than the average of about 40% found in the global average for year 2030 assumptions [24], but also as the 48% solar PV share for the MENA region [44]. However, comparable results had been found already earlier for the case of Israel [29], where the solar PV share had be found for cost optimized systems to about 90% of the total electricity supply, however for less good wind conditions as in Saudi Arabia, but for year 2030 assumptions. ...
Conference Paper
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of redefining the vision for the country's future and creating an economy that is not dependent on fossil fuels. This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050 and analyse the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. It is found that Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 whilst meeting the growing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 210 GW and 133 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 48 €/MWh. By 2050, PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector due to the further reduction in the capital costs alongside cost reductions in supporting battery technology. This results in 80% share of solar PV in the total electricity generation. Battery storage is required to meet the total electricity demand and by 2050, accounts for 48% of the total electricity demand. The LCOE is estimated at 38 €/MWh, required capacity of PV single-axis tracking is 369 GW and wind power plants 75 GW. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by the SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-togas (PtG) plants. In addition, the ratio of the energy curtailed to the total energy generated is lower in all time periods from 2020 to 2050, in the integrated scenario. As a result, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 2%-4% less than the non-integrated scenario.
... The Eastern Mediterranean region has plenty of solar energy, which could be incorporated into the Israeli electricity grid. Some scenarios even suggest that with enough storage capacity Israel could supply all its electricity needs from RE, mostly from solar PV [74,75]. However, with less than 10% of its electricity currently produced from renewable resources, Israel is behind many countries with less favorable solar conditions and has not met its own targets. ...
... Decentralized small and medium-size generation could be managed efficiently at the local level, in microgrids [75]. While microgrids are not yet widely deployed, research suggests that they could improve Israel's energy security, reduce costs, and reduce harmful emissions [76]. ...
Article
The middle-out perspective (MOP) is a relatively new analytical perspective that provides a unique lens to examine the impact of middle actors on action, inaction, change, and stagnation. This research explores the middle-out mechanism and is the first to intersect the various components of the MOP: directions of influence (upwards, downward, and sideways), modes of influence (aggregating, mediating, and enabling), and actors' levels of agency (interest and willingness to act) and capacity (ability to act). The study focuses on one middle actor: Meshek Renewables (MR), an entrepreneurial company in the Israeli energy arena. Through a detailed intersectional analysis, the roles that MR fills in overcoming barriers to transition in two domains are examined: (1) decarbonizing the transport system, and (2) increasing the share of PV in the electricity generation mix. The analysis demonstrates how, by using its assets and resources, MR raised other top, bottom, and middle actors' interest in implementing new energy technologies and improved their abilities to integrate low-carbon energy solutions and promote electric vehicles. Understanding the middle-out mechanism contributes to recognizing the qualities and assets middle-actors need to effectively overcome barriers to action associated with other actors' agency and capacity.
... The mission to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has led to the integration of renewable energy (RE) sources into the power grid [1]. Distributed generation units of renewable based are considered worldwide as an alternative solution to deal with the energy crisis faced by the modern world [2]. Various types of renewable energy at consumers side, especially solar photovoltaic (PV), are used in order to raise the efficiency of energy usage and to reduce electric bill by reducing energy consumption from grid [3,4]. ...
... The excess energies are sorted as WD and WE. To compare efficiency, the percentage of energy excess charged into the storage (%Use EnExcess) is calculated via %Use EnExcess = (Total EnExcess-Total Enloss)/ Total EnExcess (2)  ESS operation analysis In the case with ESS, the power rated and the energy rated of battery are limited during the simulation with the state of charge (SOC), The SOC of the battery is controlled within the acceptation limits, where the maximum SOC allowed (SOCmax) is 90% and the minimum (SOCmin) is 10%. To analyze the operation of ESS, the SOC profile, the charge and discharge state, the power to energy ratio of the operated battery are inspected. ...
... In addition, it is assumed that there are no thermal power plants using fossil fuels in the future scenario for Iran, in alignment to the COP21 agreement to achieve a net zero greenhouse gas emission system. This is validated by recent literature that discusses the transition to 100% renewable energy power systems of different countries and regions [19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. Thus, the 2030 total water demand of the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors, excluding that of thermal power plants in Iran, is considered. ...
Conference Paper
Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
... In 2013, the UAE joined the market and it is projected that the UAE will have the world's largest CSP plant with an install capacity of 100 MW. However, the economic value add of CSP for the region remains questionable, since solar PV is lower in LCOE [29] and the thermal energy storage of CSP plants generates no further value until a RE penetration of about 50% [30], which is far in the future for all countries in the region. Even worse, there are indications, that hybrid PV-battery-gas turbine plants are lower in cost [31], [32]. ...
Conference Paper
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
... However, each was rejected for use in this study for various reasons. CSP was deemed an economically uncompetitive alternative to solar PV electricity production combined with energy storage solutions based on previous studies [71,72]. Furthermore, the required high level of direct solar irradiance is not available in Finland [73,74]. ...
... However, CSP plants can follow any required load curve using thermal energy storage (TES) with a respective solar multiple (SM) and using fossil fuel such as natural gas as a backup or for seasonal balancing. This valuable generation flexibility is not yet known from PV power plants, mainly due to a lack of requirement in tenders, but also due to a lack of an energy system requirement up to a substantial share of intermittent renewable electricity generation, since other flexibility options can be used [10]. The requirement in more flexibility for both the tenders and energy system operation may lead to an equivalent technical flexibility of CSP and PV power plants. ...
Article
The main objective of this research is to present a solid foundation of capex projections for the major solar energy technologies until the year 2030 for further analyses. The experience curve approach has been chosen for this capex assessment, which requires a good understanding of the projected total global installed capacities of the major solar energy technologies and the respective learning rates. A literature survey has been conducted for CSP tower, CSP trough, PV and Li-ion battery. Based on the literature survey a base case has been defined for all technologies and low growth and high growth cases for further sensitivity analyses. All results are shown in detail in the paper and a comparison to the expectation of a potentially major investor in all of these technologies confirmed the derived capex projections in this paper.
... The integration of high shares of renewable energy sources in future energy systems will require a variety of complementary storage solutions. It has been previously determined that electricity storage devices will be needed once 50% of power demand is met with variable RE, and that seasonal storage devices will be needed once more than 80% of electricity demand is met by RE [14,15]. Currently, there is a long list of energy system flexibility measures available to support high levels of intermittent RE [16]. ...
Conference Paper
Integrating high shares of renewable energy (RE) sources in future energy systems requires a variety of storage solutions and flexibility measures. In this work, a 100% RE scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 for all energy sectors using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a least-cost system configuration that suited the national context. Hourly data was analysed to determine the roles of various energy storage solutions, including stationary batteries, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections, thermal energy storage and grid gas storage for Power-toGas (PtG) technologies. V2G storage and stationary batteries facilitated use of high shares of variable RE on a daily and weekly basis. Thermal energy storage and synthetic grid gas storage aided in resolving seasonality issues related to variable RE generation plus facilitated efficient use of other forms of RE, such as biomass, and Combined Heat and Power to maintain the reliability and independence of the energy system throughout the year. In this scenario, 30 GWp of installed solar PV, 35 GWe of onshore wind power and 5 GWe of offshore wind power are supported by 20 GWh of stationary Lithium-ion batteries, 150 GWh of V2G storage (Li-ion), 20 GWhth of thermal energy storage, and 3800 GWhth of grid gas storage. Discharge of electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of end-user demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, the majority of this (87%) coming from V2G connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. These observations suggest that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
... The integration of high shares of renewable energy sources in future energy systems will require a variety of complementary storage solutions. It has been previously determined that electricity storage devices will be needed once 50% of power demand is met with variable RE, and that seasonal storage devices will be needed once more than 80% of electricity demand is met by RE [14,15]. Currently, there is a long list of energy system flexibility measures available to support high levels of intermittent RE [16]. ...
Article
Full-text available
A 100% renewable energy scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a suitable, least-cost configuration. Hourly data analysis determined the roles of various energy storage solutions. Electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, with the majority (87%) coming from vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. This suggests that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
... Refs. [34,35] found that electricity storage devices will be needed once 50% of power demand is met with intermittent RE, and that seasonal storage devices will be needed once more than 80% of electricity demand is met by RE. Fortunately, there are many flexibility measures available to support high levels of intermittent RE [36], and these have been used in each future scenario to provide a reliable technical solution. ...
... However, batteries are already utilized from 2025, when the share of renewables exceeds 50%. The above results are in agreement about utilization of storage technologies at different renewable penetration levels [32,33]. For the year 2015 and 2020, the current installed capacity of PHS is sufficient to balance the system that is dominated by power production from coal. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The initiatives taken by India to tap its renewable energy (RE) potential have been extraordinary in recent years. However, large scale deployment of renewables requires various storage solutions to balance intermittency. In this work, a 100% RE transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies used in the model that provide flexibility to the system and balance the demand are batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and power-togas technology. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. The model optimizes the least cost mix of RE power plants and storage technologies installed to achieve a fully RE based power system by 2050 considering the base year's (2015) installed power plant capacities, their lifetimes and total electricity demand. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 57 €/MWhe to 42 €/MWhe in 2050 in a country-wide scenario. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The combination of solar PV and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2 – 4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
... However, it needs to be stated that CSP is significantly more valuable than solar PV from the technical point of view, since the solar energy can be easily and for low cost stored in thermal energy storage and the steam turbine leads to a secured power availability if backed-up by hydrocarbons [38]. Recent results indicate that this functionality of CSP can be by-passed by PV-battery-(power-to-gas)-gas turbine alternatives, as shown for the first time in an energy system analyses of Israel [39]. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Global energy demand has grown steadily since the industrial revolution. During the two decades from 1991 to 2012, total primary energy demand (TPED) grew from 91,200 to 155,400 TWhth, or by 70%, and projections expect this number to increase by a further 40% by 2040. Although greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector have to be reduced to zero by mid-century or earlier to avoid an ecologic disaster, less than 15% of this energy demand is supplied by renewable resources nowadays. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a significant impact on both political and economic decisions of governments and stakeholders regarding energy. The World Energy Outlook (WEO) report published annually by the IEA projects for the decades to come how TPED and electricity generation, amongst others, will evolve for all major technologies. Since the WEO is often used as a basis for policy making on renewable and conventional energy, a comprehensive analysis of past WEO projections is crucial. Such analysis will ensure well-grounded and realistic energy policy making and can contribute to efforts to fight climate change and to achieve energy security. In this article, the deviation between the real figures documented in the latest WEO reports and the projections of earlier ones is analysed, as well as the different projections of all reports from 1994 to 2014. The results obtained so far show that projections for solar technologies and wind energy have been strongly underestimated, whereas projections for nuclear energy are contradictory from one year to the next. A key reason for the high deviations of solar PV and wind capacities in the projections and the historic data is an incorrectly applied growth pattern. The WEO reports assume linear growth, whereas history shows an exponential growth for the new renewable energy (RE) technologies. The current exponential growth is part of long-term logistic growth of new RE technologies. Furthermore, a model proposed regarding RE technologies shows that to satisfy the world's needs with sustainable technologies in the decades to come, the approach of the WEO reports needs to be substantially reworked. Due to continuously falling prices of renewable energy technology, one can expect a fast deployment of renewables and a replacement of conventional energy. In its latest projections the WEOs did not take into account recent developments, including measures on climate protection and divestment of finance from the conventional energy sector. Therefore, policy-makers are advised to consider the expansion of renewables well beyond the WEO projections in their energy policies in order to avoid stranded investments in future.
... The transition towards a sustainable island energy system will require a variety of complementary energy generation and storage solutions. Past research [15] indicates that electricity storage devices will be needed once 50% of electricity generation is derived from variable RE, and that seasonal storage devices will be needed once that level exceeds 80% [16], [17]. Currently, a variety of flexibility measures are available which support high levels of variable RE [18]. ...
Conference Paper
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE) scenario that featured high participation in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services was developed for the Åland islands for 2030 for all energy sectors (power, heat and transport). The EnergyPLAN modelling tool was used to find a least-cost system configuration that suited the regional context. Hourly data was analysed to determine the roles of various energy storage solutions, including V2G connections that extended into electric boat batteries, thermal storage and grid gas storage for Power-toGas (PtG) technologies. Two weeks of interest (max/min RE) generation were studied in detail to determine the roles of energy storage solutions in the energy system. Broad participation in V2G connections facilitated high shares of variable RE on a daily and weekly basis. In the Sustainable Mobility scenario developed, high participation in V2G (2750 MWhe) results in less need for gas storage (1200 MWhth), electrolyser capacity (6.1 MWe), methanation capacity (3.9 MWhgas) and offshore wind power capacity (55 MWe) than other scenarios that featured lower V2G participation. As a result, total annualised costs were lower (225 M€/a). The influence of V2G connections on seasonal storage is an interesting result for a relatively cold, northern geographic area. Analysis revealed several functions of V2G batteries. In total, 139.8 GWhe was charged from the grid. Of this, 78.2 GWhe returned to the grid, 53.2 GWhe satisfied transport demand, and the remainder (8.4 GWhe) constituted losses. A key point is that stored electricity need not only be considered as storage for future use by the grid, and V2G batteries can provide a buffer between generation of intermittent RE and its use by end-users. Direct consumption of intermittent RE further reduces the need for storage and generation capacities. In this study a strong relationship between RE generation and V2G battery charging was observed.
... The main driver in the field of power-to-X (PtX) is the private sector, as the government only supports R&D. Several institutions research the field of fuel cells, such as the Israel Na- The PtX sector in Israel is currently being studied, and one study from Bogdanov and Breyer (2015) that analyses the optimal set of technologies according to the available resources in Israel comes to the conclusion that power-to-gas technologies and gas storages are only feasible above a share of 85% renewables. To sum up, the PtX sector is lately receiving more and more attention. ...
Technical Report
Full-text available
By applying a phase model for the renewables-based energy transition in the MENA countries to Israel, the study provides a guiding vision to support the strategy development and steering of the energy transition process. The transition towards a renewable-based energy system can reduce import dependencies and increase the energy security in Israel. Key issues that need to be tackled in order to advance the energy transition in Israel are the expansion of flexibility options, discussion on the long-term role of natural gas, increasing participation and awareness, and exploring the future role of power-to-X in the energy system.
... This is seen as SOC begins the week at 0% and then quickly shoots up to 100% at midweek. Over the year, stationary batteries spend a vast majority of time either being fully charged or fully discharged, with just 5 full load cycles annually, which merits further investigation as other results clearly show about 200-300 full load cycles annually [41,42]. The daily function of electricity storage appears to be allocated to V2G batteries, with 159 full load cycles annually. ...
Article
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE) in Finland, not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar photovoltaics (PV) can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-toGas technology. In an EnergyPLAN simulation of the Finnish energy system for 2050, approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without confidence in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin. The results of this study provides insights into how higher capacities of solar PV can be effectively promoted and managed at high latitudes, both north and south.
... However, batteries are already utilized from 2025, when the share of renewables exceeds 50%. The above results are in agreement about utilization of storage technologies at different renewable penetration levels [32,33]. For the year 2015 and 2020, the current installed capacity of PHS is sufficient to balance the system that is dominated by power production from coal. ...
Article
The initiatives taken by India to tap its renewable energy (RE) potential have been extraordinary in recent years. However, large scale deployment of renewables requires various storage solutions to balance intermittency. In this work, a 100% RE transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies used in the model that provide flexibility to the system and balance the demand are batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and power-togas technology. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. The model optimizes the least cost mix of RE power plants and storage technologies installed to achieve a fully RE based power system by 2050 considering the base year's (2015) installed power plant capacities, their lifetimes and total electricity demand. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 58 €/MWhe to 52 €/MWhe in 2050 in a country-wide scenario. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050 the cost would be 42 €/MWhe, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The combination of solar PV and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2 – 4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
... This result is in line with several studies which indicate that higher shares of intermittent renewable energy generation will result in increasing need for storage solutions. This is especially witnessed after shares of RE increase above 80% of generation [43]- [45]. Gas storage appears most prominent in absolute terms (see Table 1), and this may indicate that the status of gas-related technology and infrastructure will remain high. ...
Conference Paper
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... At the same time, energy storage solutions are increasingly relevant in both scenarios throughout the transition from 2015 to 2050. This result matches several studies which show that increasing shares of intermittent renewable energy generation will result in greater need for storage solutions, especially after the share of RE goes beyond 80% of generation [20], [40], [41]. In absolute terms, gas storage is most prominent (see Table 1), suggesting that the positions of gas-related technology and infrastructure are rather secure, and there is little risk of stranded investments. ...
Conference Paper
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model which defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from interregional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, interregional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... The overall transition trend observed in this study is similar to what is reported for other places [18,26,86,87,89,90]. Thus, the finding has important policy lessons for other Sun Belt countries because past studies performed using the same model show transition paths highly dependent on solar [18,46,86,87,89,90,91] for other geographic locations having good solar resources. Finally, the options presented here may be true for many Sun Belt countries because of the fast cost reduction of PV and supporting batteries as compared to other technologies. ...
Article
A high temporal and spatial resolution energy transition study was performed using a linear optimization based energy system transition model. The study uses Israel's electricity sector dataset, which has important characteristics typical for several Sun Belt countries. It has 7 scenarios aimed at assessing the impacts of various policy factors, such as carbon cost and coupling to the water sector. Under the present renewable electricity technology cost projections, a carbon cost only speeds up the transitions into renewable electricity. However, a No Carbon Cost scenario also achieves comparable results by 2050 (with only 2% fossil). The levelized cost of electricity in 2050 was shown to be less than that of 2015 in all scenarios except under the Current Policy. The Current Policy scenario will significantly increase the cost of electricity in the post-2020 period even when a carbon cost is ignored. The observed emission reduction comes after 2030 but there are still significant emissions by 2050. This shows that Israel's present energy policy carries multiple risks to the nation. Alternatively, Sun Belt countries, such as Israel, can speed the transition of the electricity sector without the need to implement carbon cost, only by promoting solar photovoltaics and supporting batteries.
... The high efficiency -nanotree‖ photoelectrode research enables practical H2 production or Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) remediation using PEC(photo electro chemical cell) with high efficiency by using earth abundant materials and low-cost fabrication figure no.3. This will have long-term, ongoing, positive impact on the most imminent energy and environmental issues -clean energy and energy sustainability, environmental remediation, and therefore, have great benefits to our humanity today and tomorrow [10][11][12]. ...
Research
Full-text available
Energy resources are exhausting day-by-day. Now it's very difficult to find new energy resources. But if we make effective use of renewable energy resources we can definitely decrease the rate of utilization of non-renewable energy resources [1-4]. Some of these renewable energy resources are sunlight, wind and heat. In this paper a new way of generating electricity from nature is presented [2]. The energy system which is to be explained is solar botanic renewable energy system. The energy harvesting trees are super eco-friendly synthetic trees which make use of renewable energy from the sun along with wind power, are an effective clean and environmentally sound medium of gathering solar radiation and wind energy [4]. The artificial trees are implanted with Nanoleaves, a composite of nano-photovoltaic nano-thermovoltaic and nano-piezo sources transforming light, heat and wind energy into eco-friendly electricity [4-5]. This paper begin with an overview of nano leaves and Bio-mimicry concept.
... The transition towards a sustainable island energy system will require a variety of complementary energy generation and storage solutions. Past research [19] indicates that electricity storage will be required after 50% of electricity is generated from variable RE, and that seasonal storage will be required after that level exceeds 80% [20,21]. Currently, a variety of flexibility measures are available which support high levels of variable RE [22]. ...
Article
A 100% renewable energy (RE) scenario featuring high participation in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services was developed for the Åland islands for 2030 using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool. Hourly data was analysed to determine the roles of various energy storage solutions, notably V2G connections that extended into electric boat batteries. Two weeks of interest (max/min RE) generation were studied in detail to determine the roles of energy storage solutions. Participation in V2G connections facilitated high shares of variable RE on a daily and weekly basis. In a Sustainable Mobility scenario, high participation in V2G (2750 MWh e) resulted in less gas storage (1200 MWh th), electrolyser capacity (6.1 MW e), methanation capacity (3.9 MWh gas), and offshore wind power capacity (55 MW e) than other scenarios that featured lower V2G participation. Consequently, total annualised costs were lower (225 M€/a). The influence of V2G connections on seasonal storage is an interesting result for a relatively cold, northern geographic area. A key point is that stored electricity need not only be considered as storage for future use by the grid, but V2G batteries can provide a buffer between generation of intermittent RE and its end-use. Direct consumption of intermittent RE further reduces the need for storage and generation capacities.
... This result is in line with several studies which indicate that higher shares of intermittent renewable energy generation will result in increasing need for storage solutions. This is especially witnessed after shares of RE increase above 80% of generation [43]- [45]. Gas storage appears most prominent in absolute terms (see Table 1), and this may indicate that the status of gas-related technology and infrastructure will remain high. ...
Article
Full-text available
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... At the same time, energy storage solutions are increasingly relevant in both scenarios throughout the transition from 2015 to 2050. This result matches several studies which show that increasing shares of intermittent renewable energy generation will result in greater need for storage solutions, especially after the share of RE goes beyond 80% of generation [20], [40], [41]. In absolute terms, gas storage is most prominent (see Table 1), suggesting that the positions of gas-related technology and infrastructure are rather secure, and there is little risk of stranded investments. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model that defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from inter-regional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, inter-regional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... It is generally accepted that storage will be necessary after the share of RE reaches 50% of electricity generation, and that long-term, seasonal storage will be necessary once the share of RE is greater than 80%. 72,73 In the 2050, 100% RE scenario, short-term storage is provided by 220 GWh of V2G batteries and 85 GWh of pumped hydro storage (PHS). Longer term storage is handled by 10 GWh of thermal storage for district heating and 6500 GWh of grid gas storage. ...
Article
Full-text available
High shares of renewable energy, particularly wind power, were modelled in several future scenarios for the Scottish energy system. In the first part of this work, it was determined that Scotland could produce the equivalent baseload power for supply to England at a lower overall cost (99 €/MWh) than the proposed subsidized price (112 €/MWh) to be paid for electricity generated from the proposed Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant. This cost includes all extra generation capacity and transmission lines. In the second part of this work, it was determined that a 100% renewable energy system could be achieved at an annualized cost of 10.7 b€/a, approximately 8% less than the 11.7 b€/a expected for an energy system composed of 75% renewable energy. In the 100% renewable energy system, cost savings are achieved through effective energy storage, sector integration, and flexible generation from dispatchable renewable energy resources, such as hydropower (1.7 GWe), bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. Complementary resources to 23.4 GWe of wind power also included solar photovoltaics (10.1 GWe), tidal power (1.5 GWe), and wave power (0.3 GWe). It was also determined that carbon capture and utilization would be a preferable strategy to carbon capture and storage for Scotland. Complete defossilization of the Scottish energy system appears feasible by 2050, given the assumptions used in this study.
... However, batteries are already utilised from 2025, when the share of renewables exceeds 50%. The above results are in agreement with others that show the utilisation of storage technologies at different renewable penetration levels [40,41] . For the year 2015 and 2020, the current installed capacity of PHS is suf cient fi to balance the system, which is dominated by electricity generation from coal in these years. ...
Article
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE) transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage and power-to-gas technology are used in the modelling to provide flexibility to the system and balance demand. The optimisation for each time period (transition is modeled in 5 year steps) is carried out on an assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Results indicate that a 100% renewable based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 58 €/MWhe to 52 €/MWhe in 2050 in the power scenario. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The synchronised discharging of batteries in the night time and charging of power-to-gas in the early summer and summer months reduces curtailment on the following day, and thus is a part of a least cost solution. The combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2–4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. During the monsoon period, complementarity of storage technologies and the transmission grid help to achieve uninterrupted power supply. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and a least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
Article
Full-text available
Two transition pathways towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 are simulated for Europe using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The first is a Regions scenario, whereby regions are modelled independently, and the second is an Area scenario, which has transmission interconnections between regions. Modelling is performed in hourly resolution for 5-year time intervals, from 2015 to 2050, and considers current capacities and ages of power plants, as well as projected increases in future electricity demands. Results of the optimisation suggest that the levelised cost of electricity could fall from the current 69 €/MWh to 56 €/MWh in the Regions scenario and 51 €/MWh in the Area scenario through the adoption of low cost, flexible RE generation and energy storage. Further savings can result from increasing transmission interconnections by a factor of approximately four. This suggests that there is merit in further development of a European Energy Union, one that provides clear governance at a European level, but allows for development that is appropriate for regional contexts. This is the essence of a SuperSmart approach. A 100% RE energy system for Europe is economically competitive, technologically feasible, and consistent with targets of the Paris Agreement.
Article
This paper studies congestion in the Israeli transmission network due to integration of renewable energy sources, and suggests policies to address this problem. We show through an extensive set of simulations that several key lines are overloaded and therefore energy sources cannot be added without risking the system’s reliability. Moreover, additional renewable energy may be added by reducing production in conventional power plants at hours of peak solar power production. We also compare three scenarios of location and size of new solar plants, and show that the optimal distribution of these plants may reduce transmission line loads by several tens of percent. Lastly, this study demonstrates that line loads in areas with a high share of distributed renewable energy sources are not necessarily maximal during peak demand. As a consequence, the N−1 and N−2 contingency planning criteria should be updated accordingly. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for overcoming these problems, in order to promote integration of renewable energy sources in Israel.
Article
As countries worldwide are integrating more energy storage systems and renewable energy sources, it is important to examine how these impact the frequency stability of the grid. In this study we explore this question by focusing on Israel in 2025. Based on the Israeli power grid model in 2025, which includes detailed information on the entire transmission network, generation units, and loads, we examine hundreds of different locations and sizes of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems, focusing on the frequency behavior in each scenario following the loss of a large generator. This is done using the industry-standard PSS/E simulator. The results lead to several design-level recommendations. One main conclusion is that the Israeli power system already has the required resources to maintain frequency stability in case a large generation unit is lost. However, to maintain a reliable system, policy makers should encourage that the existing and additional storage will contribute to frequency regulation when there is a risk of instability. We also find that the location of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems has an impact on the frequency stability, and that it is better to place storage systems in the south, and renewable energy sources in the north. However, at least until 2025 this impact is not yet strong enough to be a leading factor in determining the location of these sources.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
PV and wind power are the major renewable power technologies in most regions on earth. Depending on the interaction of solar and wind resources, PV and wind power industry will become competitors or allies. Time resolved geospatial data of global horizontal irradiation and wind speeds are used to simulate the power feed-in of PV and wind power plants assumed to be installed on an equally rated power basis in every region of a 1°x1° mesh of latitude and longitude between 65°N and 65°S. An overlap of PV and wind power full load hours is defined as measure for the complementarity of both technologies and identified as ranging between 5% and 25% of total PV and wind power feed-in. Critical overlap full load hours are introduced as a measure for energy losses that would appear if the grid was dimensioned only for one power plant of PV or wind. In result, they do not exceed 9% of total feed-in but are mainly around 3% - 4%. Thus the two major renewable power technologies must be characterized by complementing each other.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
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