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Maria Trojanek1, Radoslaw Trojanek2
PROFITABILITY OF INVESTING IN RESIDENTIAL UNITS: THE CASE OF
REAL ESTATE MARKET IN POLAND IN THE PERIOD
FROM 1997 TO 2011
The aim of this paper is to estimate the profitability of investing in residential units using the
example of the local real estate market in the biggest cities in Poland in the years 19972011. The
capital gains were estimated for Cracow, Lodz, Gdansk, Poznan, Warsaw and Wroclaw. In case of
total return it was possible to estimate it only for Poznan (since only for Poznan the gather infor
mation on rental fees in years 19962011 was available). The paper is divided into three parts. In
the first part the determinants of real estate investment are analyzed. Then the house price changes
in the biggest cities in Poland in years 19962011 are presented. The third part of the paper con
tains estimations of the rate of return on investment in apartments in selected cities.
Keywords: apartment prices, rate of return, housing market.
Introduction. With the growth of market economy in Poland, some markets which
played a marginal role in the pretransition economic system have grown in impor
tance. The housing market is undoubtedly one of them. The significant role this seg
ment of the real estate market plays in economy may be attributed to the fact that real
estate is perceived as capital, which makes it possible to create added value for the
owner as well as for the local and national economy. A number of studies conducted in
various countries indicate that this market has considerable influence upon the macro
economic situation of regions and national economies. The following factors are
responsible for such a state of affairs. Firstly, the price level of apartments affects the
construction companies' decisions concerning new investment projects. Secondly,
apartment prices may influence the household demand. Higher prices mean that prop
erty owners grow richer, which translates into the growth of consumption. Thirdly,
changes in the real estate market may affect the level of inflation, for example, the
more expensive apartments become, the costlier it is to maintain them. Assuming that
price fluctuations in the real estate market affect both private consumption and invest
ment, changes in the aggregate demand may contribute to the increase in the prices of
other goods and services. Price changes also seem to have an effect on consumers'
expectations. The abovementioned interactions and implications depend both on the
price level itself and its fluctuations in time.
Each market, same as the whole economy, is subject to business cycles. This rule
can be applied also to the real estate market, too. The course of economic fluctua
tions on real estate market can vary depending on specific segments of this market.
These fluctuations are often of national range conditioned by changing economic sit
uation in the country. Taking into account a specific character of property – immo
bility – economic changes on real estate market are, first of all, of regional and local
range. It means that even in case of the overall economic growth, one region or town
can go through stagnation and vice versa. Local real estate market can develop even
if the whole economy decreases. All these factors influence the profitability of invest
ing in residential units.
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(c) Maria Trojanek, Radoslaw Trojanek
(c) Maria Trojanek, Radoslaw Trojanek, 2012
, 2012
1Prof., Poznan University of Economics, Poland
2Ph.D., Poznan University of Economics, Poland
The determinants of real estate investment
The main determinants of investment, regardless of the area of investment,
include profitability and risk (Nawrot, 2008). What also seems to be important is
the ease of exit from such an investment, i.e. liquidity and marketability. Other
important factors which are worth considering include: capitalintensiveness, uni
formity and perfection of markets, and costs of market operations.
Profitability
Most investment decisions are stimulated by the pursuit of profit. There is a
number of measures to estimate the profitability of an investment. One of them is
the return rate which is the relation between the annual rate of return on invest
ment and its cost (Mayo, 2008).
The literature provides a number of definitions of a return rate, which differ
in construction and in content. Therefore, when comparing rates of return on dif
ferent investments, we must pay particular attention to the calculation methods
applied. An investor's profit may take the form of:
– income (dividends, interest),
– capital gains.
In the real estate market, such profit takes the form of a ground rent. While
the property owner charges a lease fee, he or she also has to bear the costs of its
maintenance and of using it as a source of income. These costs include: taxes and
charges, renovation costs, management costs, etc. When analyzing profit in the
real estate market, we may notice that by analogically with the capital market it is
basically estimated beforehand, and in some cases it is relatively stable and easily
assessable.
The basic method of investing in real estate is a house or an apartment own
ership. It generally comes down to the fact that a person rents the necessary living
space and invests at the same time. Renting an apartment, however, only refers to
using its space. Moreover, decisions concerning owning an apartment are not
determined by financial factors only. It is the psychological benefit of owning an
apartmentwhich can be called one's home that plays an enormous role here.
It is widely believed that purchasing a house is the best investment. It can be
regarded as a rent for "letting" it to oneself. On the other hand, the increase of the
value of a house is a kind of protection against inflation.
Risk
Risk is an inseparable part of each type of investment, irrespective of the kind
of assets one invests in. Risk refers to the situation in which at least one of its com
ponents remains unknown, but the probability of its occurrence may be identified
(Dobbins, Frackowiak, Witt, 1992). It should be interpreted as the degree of
uncertainty as to the expected profit from an investment.
From the economic perspective, risk is typically defined as the probability of
losses due to lost income, unexpected losses and other unfavorable occurrences.
Generally speaking, investment risk may be divided into:
– systematic risk (external, market),
– specific risk (internal).
In case of the real estate market, special attention must be paid to the market
risk, the liquidity risk, the risk of failing to comply with the terms of contract, and,
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in some specific situation, the exchange and financial risk. It is the liquidity risk
that has the biggest influence on the general level of risk in the area of real estate.
One of the problems related to with investing in property is the difficulty in exit
ing. Some specialists dealing with the real estate market indicate additional
sources of risk. We may distinguish the following types:
– management risk – connected with the need for the permanent, compe
tent servicing of a property,
– tax risk – connected with changes in the taxation systems in the countries
in which the property is located. They refer to taxes on capital gains and property
tax, as well as to income tax,
– environmental risk – connected with the fact that the value of a property
may be subject to changes in its environment,
– legislative risk – resulting from changes in the legal environment.
It is commonly believed that due to its physical attributes (permanence in
time and space) and the possibility of being insured against unforeseen emergen
cies, real estate investments are among the safest ones.
Liquidity and marketability
Apart from risk and amount of profit, investments also vary in liquidity or
marketability, or in both these attributes at the same time. Marketability refers to
the ease with which assets may be bought and sold. Liquidity is defined as the ease
with which assets may be exchanged into cash without suffering a significant loss.
When choosing assets to serve specific investment purposes, it is extremely
important to know the difference between liquidity and marketability. Liquidity
guarantees the security of capital and refers to assets which may be easily turned
into cash with little risk of losing the invested funds. For many investors, it is the
security and easy access to funds rather than the marketability of assets that is of
the key importance when making investment decisions. Treasury bonds are a good
example of an instrument characterized by both liquidity and marketability.
Real estate investment is characterized by low liquidity and marketability.
This is because the sale of a property, depending on its type, requires time, and
sometimes lowering of the asking price. Moreover, costs related to transferring
rights to the property are high. They include such charges as a stamp duty, a notar
ial fee, the agent's fee etc.
Some researchers (Benke, Fowler 1995) consider apartments to be the most
liquid investments in the area of real estate. They indicate that there is a large base
of potential buyers, which makes it possible to conduct transactions in a short
time. Luxury apartments, in turn, are thought to be difficult to sell due to the spe
cific character of this housing segment. They are usually sold to investors rather
than to people seeking accommodation. Land is perceived to be the least liquid –
it is believed to be subject to speculation and each buyer is thought to be definite.
It is often said that because of their higher liquidity investments in shares or
bonds are more attractive than real estate investments. There are people, however,
who believe lower liquidity is an advantage as such assets cannot be quickly sold.
Thus, an investor cannot sell a property to solve his or her sudden financial prob
lems, because it is not easy to do. Some say this is a big plus as it makes people
rethink the problem and try to find other solutions (Mclean, Eldrer, 2001).
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The diversity of the market
The diversity of the market refers to its internal diversity in terms of spatial range,
the character of acquired rights, the variety of potential market investment objects, etc.
The real estate market is highly diverse, which means that, depending on the
adopted criteria, various market segments are distinguished.
The reason for such distinction of markets is "the stratification of demand",
which in turn is associated with the pursuit of a specific goal, e.g. people use and seek
property to satisfy their accommodation needs or gain profit. The characteristic fea
ture of the real estate market is the fact that its individual components overlap each
other and their functions interpenetrate – e.g. the housing function may be turned
into the office one and vice versa.
The imperfection of the market
The category of a perfect market is strictly connected with the conditions of per
fect competition. It is a theoretical category, which reflects the ideal market, where:
– there is a large number of buyers and sellers, thus no single transaction
affects the circumstances in which transactions are completed,
– there is perfect information about market prices, so the market is transparent,
– goods are homogeneous,
– participants of a transaction make their decisions exclusively on the price
basis, they are not bound by any limitations.
When compared to other markets, the real estate market seems to be inefficient and
difficult to analyze. The stock market, in which transactions are carried out by qualified
brokers, may serve as a good example of a perfect market. Transactions are transparent,
their participants have equal access to information, personal preferences and informal
arrangements between buyers and sellers are eliminated. Standardized goods or documents
are the subject of exchange, which reduces the randomness of prices caused by variable
tastes, fashion or effective advertising. Transactions are made at a single place and time,
which eliminates any accidental disturbances resulting from the distance between them.
Capital intensiveness
Each investment involves the need for accumulating specific funds. The amount
of expenditure varies depending on the type and scale of investment, thus an investor
should carefully consider each decision concerning capital deployment beforehand.
High capital intensiveness of the real estate market is attributed to the features of a real
property as the subject of investment. This fact is first of all connected with the physi
cal indivisibility of a property. High prices of buildings, especially commercial and
industrial ones, make them hardly available to individual buyers unlike institutions or
organisations. Although it is theoretically possible to purchase a small plot of land or a
part of a residential unit, but it is not usually practiced due to functional and econom
ic reasons. This situation has the following implications:
– the need for borrowing,
– long payback period,
– relatively long economic viability,
– the need for expenditure on depreciation (Ibidem, p. 121.)
It should also be emphasized that property ownership itself means that we have
to bear a lot of costs, such as: property tax, maintenance costs to keep the property
economically viable, management and insurance costs.
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Costs of market operations
Active investment requires bearing specific costs. When estimating rates of
return, we need to take into account the necessity of additional expenditures, since
the profitability of planned operations is determined not only by gross income gen
erated by investment, but also by the overall turnover adjustment in a given market
and by tax issues.
Operational costs in the real estate market are high. Whether we purchase or buy
property, we need to pay fees and taxes stipulated by law. The purchase of property
must be conducted in the form of a notarial deed, which requires paying a notarial fee.
The amount of this fee depends on the property value and the type of acquired rights.
The seller is also obliged to pay income tax, which could be a serious burden.
Incomes from rent or lease are also subject to income tax.
If we are property owners, we become subject to taxation. Polish real estate taxa
tion system is composed of three types of taxes: property tax, agricultural tax and for
est tax. Therefore, there are plans to introduce a tax based on the socalled cadastral
value. It is not a new solution as in most countries it has been in use for a long time.
There is no doubt that investing in real estate entails a lot of costs, which makes
this kind of investment less profitable. Governments of many countries are encourag
ing their citizens to invest in housing property by introducing a number of tax reliefs.
Data sources and research methodology
This paper determines the scope of the subject, which includes price and rental fee
changes in the secondary housing market, relating both to full and limited ownership
rights to private accommodation. This research refers only to dwellings located in multi
family buildings. Such choice was determined by the two factors. Firstly, the majority of
dwellings are located in multifamily residentials (apartment blocks – up to 90% in big
Polish cities). Secondly, houses are characterized by great differentiation regarding both
quantitative and qualitative features, which requires the database to include the appro
priate information about each property in order to construct house price indices. On the
other hand, Polish secondary housing market is greater than the primary one (approxi
mately up to three times) taking into consideration the number of transactions.
In order to estimate the rates of return in the real estate market, the authors col
lected the information about the prices for apartments in the biggest cities in Poland
(Cracow, Gdansk, Lodz, Poznan, Warsaw, Wroclaw) in the years 19962011. The ask
ing rental fees for residential floor area over 19962011 were gathered only for Poznan
city. The use of asking prices is determined by the fact that in Polish conditions, the
access to information about transaction prices is particularly limited1.
The data regarding the apartment prices covered over 1 500 000 offers of
apartments for sale (in six biggest cities in Poland), while the data concerning the
rental fees included over 70,000 items (only Poznan) over the period 19962011.
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1For a few years experts have been developing a system of recording prices and value – at present, such data are available
in most big cities. However, they only concern property (full ownership), while there is no information about apartments
with a limited right of ownership in multifamily residentials (such information is only available in housing cooperatives
– in big cities there are several dozen of such institutions) . There are different ways of providing these data – in some
cities, e.g. in Wroclaw, they may be accessed online; in others, e.g. in Poznan, they are provided in the form of pdf print
outs (overall information about transactions); whereas in Warsaw it is possible to browse and rewrite data only from the
cards with the most important information included in notarial deeds. Moreover, the access to such data is paid and they
are used mainly by property valuers (in Poland, there are over 5,000 certified property valuers).
Empty and recurring records were removed as well as those in which a specific
offer was not fully described. The recurrence of data was the result of announcing
one offer by a few estate agents, thus they were repeatedly placed in a database.
The next stage of the analysis involved checking the reliability of data obtained.
The aim was to eliminate those offers which were, for no clearly specified reasons,
far from the average. Moreover, it was assumed that the analysis will cover apart
ments with the floor space of up to 150 m2and having no more than five rooms.
Both fully owned apartments and the ones with a limited right of ownership were
examined. As a result of such selection the size of the database was reduced to
about 900 000 apartments for sale (170 000 offers in Cracow, 110 000 offers in
Lodz, 130 000 offers in Gdansk, 120 000 offers in Poznan, 250 000 offers in
Warsaw and 115 000 offers in Wroclaw) and 50,000 offers of apartments for rent
(only Poznan). The number of offers gathered meets the requirements of the rep
resentativeness of a sample.
The authors of the paper established the total, capitalbased and incomebased
rates of return. The total rate of return is a measure of potential financial gain to be
obtained from a given asset expressed as a percentage. In the case under study, the
total rate of return is the sum of the capitalbased and incomebased rate of return,
which may be represented by the following formula (1):
TRR = IRR + CRR; (1)
where:
TRR – total rate of return,
IRR – incomebased rate of return,
CRR – capitalbased rate of return.
In the modern market economy, investments are often aimed at capital gains,
defined as the growth in the value of an asset. The method of estimating the capital
based gross rate of return (without taking into consideration the costs of market oper
ations) consists in the specification of a percentage change in the value of an asset,
which may be represented by the following formula (2):
CRR = ( P1– P0)/ P0; (2)
where:
P1– average price of 1m2 of an apartment in period t,
P0– average price of 1m2 of an apartment in period t1.
The obtained rates of return do not allow for the costs related to the purchase
and sale of apartments.
Income from rent is another source of gains from investing in residential prop
erty. These gains are measured by the incomebased rate of return. It is expressed
by the following formula (3):
IRR = (I)/ P0; (3)
where:
P0– average price of 1m2of an apartment in period t,
I – average annual rent for 1m2of an apartment in period t.
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In order to calculate the level of the incomebased rate of return, the average
rental fees for 1m2of the usable floor space of these residential units were established.
The incomebased rate of return on the investment in residential property was estab
lished given the following assumptions:
– the apartment has been rented out for the period of one year,
– the rental fee has remained at the level established at the beginning of a given
period for the whole year,
– the tenant covers the maintenance costs (water, heating etc.).
All of calculations in this paper where made in real terms (from all variables the
inflation was excluded).
The very first step in the process of determination of the return rates was to make
real (for the first quarter of 1996) flat prices and rental fees in the years 19962011.
Then the seasonal and irregular fluctuations were eliminated using X12 ARIMA.
Dwelling price changes in selected cities in Poland over the period 19962011
Methods of the designing of real estate price indices may be divided, using the
criterion of allowing for changes in the quantitative and qualitative attributes of prop
erty, into two groups: simple methods (those which do not take account on changes)
and the complex ones (those which do allow for such changes, at least partly). Simple
methods include methods based on the average and the ones based on the median.
Complex methods encompass: the hedonic regression method, the resale method,
the weighted average method and the hybrid one.
Source: own research
Graph 1. Real dwelling price indices in the selected cities in Poland for the
period from 1996 to 2001
In this paper the dwelling prices indices per square metre were constructed
with a median method. The choice of this method was determined by the data
gathered – in most cases in Polish magazines there were no data on specific fea
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tures of offers from 1996 to 2004 (such as construction material, standards, type of
ownership, time of construction). Because of this fact it was impossible to use one
of the complex method to construct the dwelling price indices. Graph 1 presents
the real dwelling prices indices in the selected cities in Poland or the period from
1996 to 2001.
The analysis of graph 1 shows that the real dwelling price indices in case of
Cracow increased by 206%, Gdansk – by 140%, Lodz – by 120%, Poznan – by
138%, Wroclaw – by 168% during the years 19962011 (in case of nominal terms the
increase figures were much higher). Particularly, rapid growth took place in 2006,
which resulted from many factors. Firstly, the market was informed about the possi
bility of increasing V.A.T. (value added tax) by 22%. Thus, only those flats that were
built just at that moment were burdened with 7% V.A.T. Secondly, the other impor
tant information was that 2007 was the last year to use the tax relief. Taking into con
sideration the above mentioned facts it seems that rapid growth of demand met fixed
supply and resulted in huge flat price growth in the year of 2006. Thirdly, there was
a big mortgage affordability at that time in Poland. Fourthly, Polish economy was in
good condition. Moreover, there was speculative capital doing business on the mar
ket and behavior of many buyers was irrational.
Rates of return in the residential market in the selected cities in Poland in the peri
od from 1997 to 2011
The capital gains were estimated for Cracow, Lodz, Gdansk, Poznan, Warsaw
and Wroclaw. In case of total return it was possible to estimate it only for Poznan
(since for Poznan the information on rental fees in years 19962011 was available). In
Graph 2 real capitalbased rates of return on the investment in residential units in 6
biggest cities in Poland in period from 1997 to 2011 are presented.
Source: own research
Graph 2. Real capitalbased rates of return on the investment in residential
units in 6 biggest cities in Poland in the period from 1997 to 2011
The highest real capitalbased rates of return were recorded in 2007. They
ranged from 60% (Cracow) to 100% (Lodz). The biggest real capital losses from
investments in residential units in the selected cities in Poland were recorded in
years of 20002002 and 20082011 respectively. The method used in this research2
to estimate the capital gains on dwelling investment (it shows percentage changes
year to year) may show cyclical behavior of the dwelling prices. It is worth notic
ing that fluctuations of the dwelling prices over 19972011 had a very similar
course but were not identical. These differences show the local character of the
residential markets. In case of Poland simple regression equation implies that over
60% of dwellings price fluctuations on the local housing markets may be explained
by a business cycle. It demonstrates the persistent forces that link residential local
market to a business cycle, plus mechanisms inside the residential market, that
make the dwelling price cycle more than a simple reflection of that in the econo
my (Trojanek, 2007, 2009, 2010). In the next section the residential market in
Poznan was the subject of further analysis. In Graph 3 real incomebased rates of
return on the investment in residential units in Poznan in the period from 1997 to
2011 are presented.
Source: own research
Graph 3. Incomebased rates of return on the investment in residential units
in Poznan
The incomebased rate of return on the investment in residential units in Poznan
over the period 19972011 ranged from 5% to 14%. Since 1997 we have been observ
ing a downward trend in the obtained rates of return. The average real rate of return
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2Basic methods of isolation cyclical component in time series are as follows: cycle of levels, cycle of deviations from trend,
cycle of growth, and cycle of deviations of growth rate from trend (Kasperowicz, 2010, Gazda, 2010).
for all types of apartments in 19972011 was about 10%. In Graph 4 real total rates of
return on the investment in residential units in Poznan in the period from 1997 to
2011 are presented.
Source: own research
Graph 4. Total real rates of return on the investment in residential units in Poznan
The analysis of the above graph shows that the investment in residential units
in Poznan in the years 19972011 showed positive rates of return, except for 2001,
2008, 2009 and 2011. It must also be pointed out that the level of the total rate of
return is mainly determined by the capitalbased rate of return. In the period
under study, the incomebased rate of return takes positive values in the range
between 4.5% to 14%. 2007 was the best year for investing in residential units in
Poznan in the last fifteen years.
Conclusion
The aim of this paper is to estimate the profitability of investing in residential
units using the example of the local real estate market in the biggest cities in Poland
in the years of 19972011. The capital gains were estimated for Cracow, Lodz,
Gdansk, Poznan, Warsaw and Wroclaw. In case of total return it was possible to esti
mate it only for Poznan (since only for Poznan the information on rental fees was
available). Fluctuations of the dwelling prices over the period from 1997 to 2011 had
a very similar course but were not identical. These differences show the local char
acter of the residential markets. The biggest real capital losses from investments in
residential units in the selected cities in Poland were recorded in 20002002 and in
20082011 respectively. The highest real capitalbased rates of return were record
ed in 2007. The incomebased rate of return on the investment in residential units
in Poznan over 19972011 ranged from 5% to 14%. Since 1997 we have been
observing a downward trend in the obtained rates of return. The average real rate of
return for all types of apartments in 19972011 was about 10%.
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