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An empirical test of the assumptions of case linkage and offender profiling with serial business robberies

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Jessica Woodhams at University of Birmingham
Jessica Woodhams
Kirsty Toye
Kirsty Toye
Kirsty Toye
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Abstract

Case linkage, the identification of crimes suspected of being committed by the same perpetrator on the basis of behavioral similarity, and offender profiling, the inference of offender characteristics from offense behaviors, are used to advise police investigations and, in relation to case linkage, have been admitted in legal proceedings. Criteria for expert evidence, such as the Daubert criteria (Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 1993), place stringent conditions on the admissibility of expert evidence. The future contribution of these practices to legal proceedings depends, in part, on whether they are underpinned by hypotheses that are testable and supported. The 3 hypotheses of offender behavioral consistency, of offender behavioral distinctiveness, and of a homology (direct relationship) between offender characteristics and behavior were empirically examined using a sample of serial commercial robberies. Support was found for the former 2 hypotheses but not for the last. The findings of the 2 studies have implications for the future development of these practices, for legal practitioners evaluating expert evidence, and for the implementation of public policy.
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AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ASSUMPTIONS OF
CASE LINKAGE AND OFFENDER PROFILING WITH
SERIAL COMMERCIAL ROBBERIES
Jessica Woodhams
University of Leicester
Kirsty Toye
Surrey Police
Case linkage, the identification of crimes suspected of being committed by the same
perpetrator on the basis of behavioral similarity, and offender profiling, the infer-
ence of offender characteristics from offense behaviors, are used to advise police
investigations and, in relation to case linkage, have been admitted in legal proceed-
ings. Criteria for expert evidence, such as the Daubert criteria (Daubert v. Merrell
Dow Pharmaceuticals, 1993), place stringent conditions on the admissibility of
expert evidence. The future contribution of these practices to legal proceedings
depends, in part, on whether they are underpinned by hypotheses that are testable
and supported. The 3 hypotheses of offender behavioral consistency, of offender
behavioral distinctiveness, and of a homology (direct relationship) between offender
characteristics and behavior were empirically examined using a sample of serial
commercial robberies. Support was found for the former 2 hypotheses but not for the
last. The findings of the 2 studies have implications for the future development of
these practices, for legal practitioners evaluating expert evidence, and for the
implementation of public policy.
Keywords: crime, link, case, offense, typology
In many countries, government policy has required police forces to focus their
investigative efforts on the minority of offenders who commit the majority of the
crimes (Innes, Fielding, & Cope, 2005). This has motivated the police and
professionals working with them to develop effective means of identifying crimes
committed by the same offender (called serial crime or crime series). Behavioral
and forensic scientists have developed methods for identifying serial crime. In the
absence of suitable physical evidence, such as DNA evidence, to link different
crime scenes, case linkage (also referred to as comparative case analysis and
linkage analysis) can be used to examine the likelihood of a series of offenses
being committed by the same unidentified offender (Grubin, Kelly, & Brunsdon,
2001; Hazelwood & Warren, 2003). Case linkage is typically conducted by crime
analysts and involves the analyst engaging in a detailed behavioral analysis of
criminals’ crime scene actions (modus operandi [MO]) to determine whether there
is a sufficient degree of similarity in behavior for the crimes to be attributed to a
common offender.
Similarly, science has played an important role in developing means of
identifying offenders from the physical evidence left at the crime scene (Innes et
Jessica Woodhams, School of Psychology, University of Leicester, Leicester, England; Kirsty
Toye, West Surrey Divisional Intelligence Unit, Surrey Police, Surrey, England.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Jessica Woodhams, School of
Psychology, University of Leicester, 106 New Walk, Leicester LE1 7EA, England. E-mail:
jaw38@le.ac.uk
Psychology, Public Policy, and Law
2007, Vol. 13, No. 1, 59 – 85
Copyright 2007 by the American Psychological Association
1076-8971/07/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/1076-8971.13.1.59
59
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.
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