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Abstract

Global food production is identified as a great threat to the environment. In combination with technical advances in agriculture, dietary change is suggested to be necessary to reduce the environmental impact of the food system. In this article a systematic review assessing the environmental impact of dietary change is performed. The aims are to i) evaluate the scientific basis of dietary scenario analysis, ii) estimate the potential environmental effects of dietary change, iii) identify methodological aspects of importance for outcome and iv) identify current gaps in knowledge. The review includes 14 peer-reviewed journal articles assessing the GHG emissions and land use demand of in total 49 dietary scenarios. The results suggest that dietary change, in areas with affluent diet, could play an important role in reaching environmental goals, with up to 50% potential to reduce GHG emissions and land use demand associated with the current diet. The choice of functional unit, system boundaries and methods for scenario development and accounting for uncertainties are methodological aspects identified to have major influence on the quality and results of dietary scenario analysis. Further understanding of dietary change as a measure for more sustainable food systems requires improved knowledge of uncertainty in dietary scenario studies, environmental impact from substitutes and complements to meat and the effect of dietary change in different groups of populations and geographical locations.

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... Previous and ongoing research leaves little doubt that dietary patterns are inherently related to greenhouse (GHG) emissions, and thus a driver of climate change, via agricultural practices and food production systems (Biesbroek et al., 2018;Hallstrom et al., 2015;Mertens et al., 2020;Springmann et al., 2018). In 2019, global anthropogenic emissions equated to 54 billion metric tonnes of CO 2 equivalents, of which 31% (16.5 billion metric tonnes) derived from agri-food systems (Tubiello et al., 2021). ...
... Over the same period (i.e.,2020-2050), global dietary patterns are expected to increasingly shift towards animal-derived produce, with meat and milk consumption predicted to increase by 73% and 58%, respectively (FAO, 2011). Increased atmospheric GHGs are increasing the average global temperature and exacerbating climate change (Aydinalp and Cresser, 2008;Fresan et al., 2019;Gonzalez-Garcia et al., 2020;Hallstrom et al., 2015;Mertens et al., 2020;Springmann et al., 2018). These excessive GHG emissions from agricultural systems need to curtailed in order to meet the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals target of limiting global warming to less than 2 • C (UN, 2015). ...
... Lifecycle assessment (LCA) based approaches are frequently utilised to evaluate the environmental impact of individual food product lifecycle stages, including production, processing, packaging, transportation (to and from retail), cooking, and disposal (Aleksandrowicz et al., 2016;Hallstrom et al., 2015). LCA system boundaries (i.e., conceptual delineations dividing the target system being studied from items not included in the study) must be specified as each step in the product lifecycle produces varying emissions (Aleksandrowicz et al., 2016;Hallstrom et al., 2015). ...
Article
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Dietary patterns are inherently related to greenhouse (GHG) emissions via agricultural practices and foodproduction systems. As the global population is predicted to increase from 8 billion (current) to 9.6 billion by2050 added pressure will be placed on existing agricultural systems, resulting in increased GHG emissions thusexacerbating climate change. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand present-day dietary patterns toshift to sustainable and healthy diets to mitigate GHG emissions and meet future climate targets. However, noreview or pooled analyses of dietary pattern emissions from a farm-to-fork perspective has been undertaken todate. The current study sought to i) identify the current dietary habits within high-income regions from 2009to 2020 and ii) quantify the GHG emissions associated with these dietary patterns via a global systematisedreview and pooled analysis. Twenty-three peer-reviewed studies were identified through online bibliographicdatabases. Dietary patterns are being examined based on fixed inclusion/exclusion criteria. Five dietarypatterns were identified in the review with their mean GHG emissions: high-protein diets (5.71 CO2eq kgperson−1 day−1), omnivorous diet (4.83 CO2eq kg person−1 day−1), lacto-ovo-vegetarian/pescatarian diet (3.86CO2eq kg person−1 day−1), recommended diet (3.68 CO2eq kg person−1 day−1), and the vegan diet (2.34CO2eq kg person−1 day−1). The lacto-ovo-vegetarian/pescatarian diet was associated with significantly loweremissions than both the omnivorous and high-protein dietary patterns, with -22% and -41% GHG emissions,respectively. The high-protein dietary pattern exhibited significantly higher GHG emissions than other dietarypatterns. Geographically, significant statistical differences (p = 0.001) were only reported for the omnivorousdiet between North America and Europe. Findings reveal that GHG emissions vary based on dietary patternsand have the potential to be reduced by shifting dietary patterns, which benefits the environment by lesseningone of the drivers of climate change.
... While the food system already contributes to emissions substantially, by 2050, absolute agriculture-related GHGEs are projected to more than double due to population rise and dietary shifts [3]. Scientific consensus exists that dietary changes can offer substantial reduction potentials [4][5][6]. Likewise, the EU's Farm to Fork Strategy explicitly includes the promotion of sustainable diets, in addition to the objective of promoting sustainable practices in production and food processing [7]. ...
... Uncertainty assessment methods (probabilistic simulation [27], Bayesian statistics, fuzzy methods, non-parametric and robust statistics, neural networks [28], pedigree matrix [29], and Gaussian error propagation [30]) allow the quantification of the climate impact of dietary habits and the corresponding potential of reduction strategies. To enhance the reliability of results, diet CFs should be indicated and discussed with uncertainty outcomes rather than displaying them as discrete values [5]. One way of doing so is to create probabilistic simulations for diet CFs by feeding the probability distributions of parameters into the calculation [27]. ...
... So, when precise advice results from outcomes disregarding uncertainty a misleading feeling of certainty is caused [46]. Thus, rather than displaying results in the form of single, absolute numbers, diet CFs should be indicated and discussed with uncertainty outcomes to assess their reliability and enhance information on diet CFs [5]. Such procedures increase the outcome's likelihood of containing the true value. ...
Article
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The food system plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change. Even if fossil fuel emissions are halted immediately, current trends in global food systems may prevent the achievement of the Paris Agreement's climate targets. The high degree of variability and uncertainty involved in calculating diet-related greenhouse gas emissions limits the ability to evaluate reduction potentials to remain below a global warming of 1.5 or 2 degrees. This study assessed Western European dietary patterns while accounting for uncertainty and variability. An extensive literature review provided value ranges for climate impacts of animal-based foods to conduct an uncertainty analysis via Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting carbon footprints were assessed against food system-specific greenhouse gas emission thresholds. The range and absolute value of a diet carbon footprint become larger the higher the amount of products with highly varying emission values in the diet. All dietary pattern carbon footprints overshoot the 1.5 degrees threshold. The vegan, vegetarian, and diet with low animal-based food intake were predominantly below the 2 degrees threshold. Omnivorous diets with more animal-based product content trespassed them. Reducing animal-based foods is a powerful strategy to decrease emissions. However, further mitigation strategies are required to achieve climate goals.
... For example, a recent modeling study of 85 countries revealed that the adoption of dietary guidelines recommending the limited consumption of red meat and dairy in favor of plant-based foods, was associated with significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and progress in attaining global environmental targets [107]. Similarly, a systematic review of environmental impacts of dietary change in 49 dietary scenarios highlighted the potential to reduce total per capita GHG emissions through a transition to plant-based diets and healthy diets with limited intake of ruminant meat [108]. It is also estimated that the future per capita land demand would be reduced very substantially with plant-based diets and healthy diets with restricted intake of ruminant meat [108,109]. ...
... Similarly, a systematic review of environmental impacts of dietary change in 49 dietary scenarios highlighted the potential to reduce total per capita GHG emissions through a transition to plant-based diets and healthy diets with limited intake of ruminant meat [108]. It is also estimated that the future per capita land demand would be reduced very substantially with plant-based diets and healthy diets with restricted intake of ruminant meat [108,109]. Recently, a comparative life-cycle assessment of plant and beef-based patties has shown that plant-based options have a much lower impact on climate change than their animal-sourced counterparts [110]. These overall findings are particularly relevant in the context of 'food away from home' catering services. ...
Article
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Current food systems face immediate and complex challenges in feeding a growing global population. It is necessary to mitigate the environmental impact of food systems while ensuring food security across the globe. Drawing on the example of recent multi-sectoral approaches which focus on the interconnections between public health and the environment, this work offers a narrative review and broader conceptual framework advancing two propositions. The first is that school meals systems have the potential to help enable sustainable food transitions. The second is that favoring well-planned plant-based meals in schools may strengthen this potential. The review and resulting framework highlight the relevance of seeking transdisciplinary dialogue and considering diverse sectors of society, such as public health, the environment, social protection, economic development, and community welfare. We review possible health benefits as well as possible economic and environmental outcomes, especially if school meals are sourced mainly from local communities and eco-friendly agricultural practices. Cross-sectoral implications related to social protection and community welfare are also identified and discussed, as well as potential pathways for materializing sustainable food transitions in schools.
... A move towards healthier diets could have substantial co-benefits on food supply. For example, the processes involved in the production of vegetable proteins are much less land-intensive than those of animal proteins and therefore put less pressure on food systems (Hallström, Carlsson-Kanyama and Börjesson, 2015). Concerns about pollution, health and nutritional quality could lead to a reduction in mineral fertiliser use, an increase in nutrient recycling, a decrease in pesticide use and more diversified plant production. ...
... Thanks to its lifecycle and multicriteria perspective, Life Cycle 66 Assessment (LCA) is a well-established and recognized methodology for quantifying the 67 environmental impacts of a product or a service (Finnveden et al., 2009). LCA has been applied to 68 many food and agricultural products (Notarnicola, et al. 2017a; Roy et al. 2009), and more recently 69 used to compare the impacts of different diets (Hallström et al., 2015). LCA could also be considered 70 as the most comprehensive methodology for assessing environmental performances of human 71 activities at urban scales (Loiseau et In the end, the recommendations converge on using specific data to quantify the environmental 109 impacts of urban food supply, based on bottom-up approaches for collecting data on food 110 consumption, LCIs, and integrating socio-demographic characteristics. ...
Article
The environmental challenges raised by urban food supply requirements must be addressed and sustainable local food policies need to be designed. For these reasons, the major areas of improvement should be identified in terms of both consumption and production. This paper aims at implementing Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to achieve a comprehensive diagnosis of the environmental impacts of food supply at a city level, and to provide adequate recommendations on how to perform data collection. Initially designed to quantify the environmental performance of a product or service, proposals have been made to adapt LCA to city and territory scales. However, applications are still scarce, as data collection can be very resource-intensive. Most existing studies apply a top-down approach that presents a number of limitations. For example, an overly aggregated representation of the studied sectors is proposed, while mainly greenhouse gas impacts are quantified without addressing a broad coverage of environmental issues. In this paper, a bottom-up approach is adopted, where the collected data concerns a comparison between two data sources involving individual food consumption (i.e. a national and a local survey). AGRIBALYSE 3.0 database is used for life cycle inventories of food products and different methods are employed to scale up the analysis to city level. Results indicate that the main impacts arise from animal product consumption and agricultural production stages, with certain variations according to the impact category and considered food product. A comparison between national and local data on food consumption confirms that average national data are sufficient for an initial diagnosis. One of the next challenges will be to improve the LCA databases. Although they now include several hundred foodstuffs, they do not distinguish between alternative practices (e.g., for agricultural or retailing step) and product sources.
... Reducing meat consumption and enjoying a healthier diet that includes more vegetables and fruit can save 20-50% of greenhouse gases (measured against various reference scenarios) (Faber et al., 2012;Hallström et al., 2015). Beef consumption is the largest dietary source of greenhouse gases in most countries (except Asia) (Chaudhary et al., 2018). ...
Technical Report
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What is sufficiency and what are promising approaches to advancing sufficiency? The project "Sufficiency as added value in everyday life", funded by the Mercator Switzerland Foundation, has been looking into these questions for three years. As part of this research, the study "Sufficiency in everyday life, promising steps towards achieving a low-carbon society" was published in 2019. On the one hand, it investigated how consumption habits and everyday routines have an effect at the individual level and contribute to sufficiency, and on the other hand, which barriers stand in the way of implementation and how these can be overcome in the sense of governance for sustainable development. The English version of this publication has now also recently become available. This report was translated by Dr. Adam X. Hearn.
... Die Forschung zeigt, dass sich die Beteiligung von Konsument*innen und die Bildungsangebote positiv auswirken und nachhaltige-Der 2000m 2 Weltacker -ein Bildungsprojekt in den Nuglar Gärten. Fotos: Ann-Kathrin Hess Durch eine Reduktion des Fleischkonsums und eine gesündere Ernährung, die mehr Gemüse und Obst beinhaltet, können 20-50 % an Treibhausgasen eingespart werden (gemessen an verschiedenen Referenzszenarien)(Faber et al., 2012;Hallström et al., 2015). Rindfleischkonsum ist in den meisten Ländern (ausser Asien) die größte ernährungsbedingte Quelle von Treibhausgasen(Chaudhary et al., 2018). ...
Technical Report
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Was ist Suffizienz und was sind vielversprechende Ansätze, um Suffizienz voranzubringen? Mit diesen Fragen hat sich das Projekt «Suffizienz als Mehrwert im Alltag», gefördert von der Stiftung Mercator Schweiz, während drei Jahren auseinandergesetzt. Im Rahmen dieser Forschung ist 2019 die Studie «Suffizienz im Alltag, Vielversprechende Schritte auf dem Weg zur Erreichung einer CO2-armen Gesellschaft» veröffentlicht worden. Zum einen wurde untersucht, wie Konsumgewohnheiten und Alltagsroutinen auf individueller Ebene wirken und zu Suffizienz beitragen, zum anderen, welche Barrieren einer Umsetzung entgegenstehen und wie diese im Sinne einer Governance für nachhaltige Entwicklung überwunden werden können. Nun ist seit kurzem auch die englische Version dieser Publikation verfügbar.
... A demanda por dietas sustentáveis, que têm baixo impacto ambiental e que contribuem para a segurança alimentar e nutricional, protegendo a biodiversidade e o ecossistema, resulta na demanda por alimentos alternativos. Alternativas PB são consideradas ambientalmente sustentáveis, pois esses alimentos podem ter um impacto negativo reduzido no meio ambiente (Pandey et al., 2021;Hallström et al., 2015;Auestad & Fulgoni, 2015). A mudança para uma dieta PB pode melhorar significativamente a sustentabilidade alimentar, o impacto ambiental e ter implicações benéficas para a saúde (Leiserowitz et al., 2020). ...
Article
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Atualmente, as bebidas plant-based tornaram-se de alguma forma, um instrumento de estilo de vida, consumido por muitos não apenas por causa de questões dietéticas, mas também por crenças individuais. O Brasil, devido a sua ampla biodiversidade, apresenta um alto potencial para atuar de forma ativa no cenário global na produção destas bebidas. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi identificar os principais estudos científicos sobre as bebidas vegetais elaboradas a partir de oleaginosas brasileiras, a fim de se destacar quais as plantas utilizadas, como essas bebidas estão sendo elaboradas e qual o seu potencial nutricional, bioquímico, antioxidante e sensorial. O estudo trata de uma revisão sistemática, sendo utilizado dados disponíveis em diferentes bases dos periódicos da CAPES (Scopus, Web of Science, Pubmed, Embase e Scielo), seguindo as seguintes etapas: formulação da pergunta, coleta de dados (identificação), seleção (exclusão), definição das características de elegibilidade e análise das evidências selecionadas. Foram identificados 3.598 artigos, onde através do processo de seleção foram aprovados 12 documentos. Estas bebidas apresentam uma aceitação sensorial intermediária e um alto potencial nutricional. Atualmente, no Brasil encontra-se uma gama de opções de oleaginosas que ainda podem ser exploradas. Existem poucos estudos científicos relacionados ao tema, entretanto, nota-se através da pesquisa em diferentes bases de dados um aumento gradual a cada ano. Esses experimentos científicos são importantes para comprovar e/ou verificar o potencial dessas amêndoas/castanhas originárias do Brasil na elaboração de bebidas plant-based, uma vez que a demanda por produtos saudáveis alternativos aos de origem animal também cresce a cada dia.
... Amid concern about the environmental impacts of foods, there is focus on the role of livestock in a sustainable global food system [1][2][3]. Among livestock systems, milk is of special interest for developing and testing spatialized approaches for assessing environmental impacts: a variety of feed inputs, possibly from disparate geographic areas, are transformed into raw milk, which is then processed and distributed for direct consumption or for use in a variety of products. ...
Article
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Purpose: Understanding the main factors affecting the environmental impacts of milk production and consumption along the value chain is key towards reducing these impacts. This paper aims to present detailed spatialized distributions of impacts associated with milk production and consumption across the United States (U.S.), accounting for locations of both feed and on-farm activities, as well as variations in impact intensity. Using a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) approach, focus is given to impacts related to (a) water consumption, (b) eutrophication of marine and freshwater, (c) land use, (d) human toxicity and ecotoxicity, and (e) greenhouse gases. Methods: Drawing on data representing regional agricultural practices, feed production is modelled for 50 states and 18 main watersheds and linked to regions of milk production in a spatialized matrix-based approach to yield milk produced at farm gate. Milk processing, distribution, retail, and consumption are then modelled at a national level, accounting for retail and consumer losses. Custom characterization factors are developed for freshwater and marine eutrophication in the U.S. context. Results and discussion: In the overall life cycle, up to 30% of the impact per kg milk consumed is due to milk losses that occur during the retail and consumption phases (i.e., after production), emphasizing the importance of differentiating between farm gate and consumer estimates. Water scarcity is the impact category with the highest spatial variability. Watersheds in the western part of the U.S. are the dominant contributors to the total water consumed, with 80% of water scarcity impacts driven by only 40% of the total milk production. Freshwater eutrophication also has strong spatial variation, with high persistence of emitted phosphorus in Midwest and Great Lakes area, but high freshwater eutrophication impacts associated with extant phosphorus concentration above 100 µg/L in the California, Missouri, and Upper Mississippi water basins. Overall, normalized impacts of fluid milk consumption represent 0.25% to 0.8% of the annual average impact of a person living in the U.S. As milk at farm gate is used for fluid milk and other dairy products, the production of milk at farm gate represents 0.5% to 3% of this annual impact. Dominant contributions to human health impacts are from fine particulate matter and from climate change, whereas ecosystem impacts of milk are mostly due to land use and water consumption. Conclusion: This study provides a systematic, national perspective on the environmental impacts of milk production and consumption in the United States, showing high spatial variation in inputs, farm practices, and impacts.
... The two vegetarian diets have the lowest impact on the environmental indicators studied, with the Vegan dietary pattern scoring the lowest for all three indicators. These findings correspond with previous studies conducted in the U.S. and internationally regarding the impact of diets on the environment [52,53]. However, these findings are important, given that they are using 2020 U.S. dietary guidelines as well as recent NHANES data, while previous studies are primarily using 2010 and 2015 U.S. dietary guidelines [20,24]. ...
Article
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The U.S. agri-food system is a driver of climate change and other impacts. In order to achieve environmental targets that limit global mean temperature rise ≤2 °C, a shift in American dietary patterns is critical. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) to determine the environmental impact (i.e., land use, water use, and GHG emissions) related to consumption of five U.S. dietary patterns (i.e., Current U.S., the Healthy U.S., Mediterranean, Healthy Vegetarian, and Vegan), and (2) to determine the specific impact of each food group in each dietary pattern on the three environmental indicators. This study utilized existing datasets to synthesize information related to the study’s environmental indicators and food production and connected these data to the current U.S. diet and the USDA-defined diets. Results indicate that the three omnivore diets contributed the greatest to GHG emissions, land use and water use. The Vegan diet scored the lowest across all indicators, although the water required for plant-based protein nearly offset other water gains. For the omnivore diets, red meat and dairy milk contributed the most to each environmental indicator. By considering sustainability as well as health outcomes in their recommendations in the Dietary Guidelines, the USDA can have a critical role in shifting diets necessary to alter climate change trends.
... In general, healthy plant-rich diets, including flexitarian, or vegetarian options, have lower climate and land impact than those high in ASF; their water and nutrient impacts depend on the practices used (Hallström et al. 2015;Aleksandrowicz et al. 2016;Frehner et al. 2021). Reduction in ASF, notably red meat consumption has been shown to reduce environmental impacts (e.g., on climate, land, and biodiversity), with some studies suggesting that global climate and biodiversity targets are only achievable through reduced consumption (Tilman and Clark 2014;Leclère et al. 2018;Springmann et al. 2018;Clark et al. 2020). ...
Chapter
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Livestock are a critically important component of the food system, although the sector needs a profound transformation to ensure that it contributes to a rapid transition towards sustainable food systems. This chapter reviews and synthesises the evidence available on changes in demand for livestock products in the last few decades, and the multiple socio-economic roles that livestock have around the world. We also describe the nutrition, health, and environmental impacts for which the sector is responsible. We propose eight critical actions for transitioning towards a more sustainable operating space for livestock. (1) Facilitate shifts in the consumption of animal source foods (ASF), recognising that global reductions will be required, especially in communities with high consumption levels, while promoting increased levels in vulnerable groups, including the undernourished, pregnant women and the elderly. (2) Continue work towards the sustainable intensification of livestock systems, paying particular attention to animal welfare, food-feed competition, blue water use, disease transmission and perverse economic incentives. (3) Embrace the potential of circularity in livestock systems as a way of partially decoupling livestock from land. (4) Adopt practices that lead to the direct or indirect mitigation of greenhouse gases. (5) Adopt some of the vast array of novel technologies at scale and design incentive mechanisms for their rapid deployment. (6) Diversify the protein sources available for human consumption and feed, focusing on the high-quality alternative protein sources that have lower environmental impacts. (7) Tackle antimicrobial resistance effectively through a combination of technology and new regulations, particularly for the fast-growing poultry and pork sectors and for feedlot operations. (8) Implement true cost of food and true-pricing approaches to ASF consumption.
... The 12th goal of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the 2030 agenda established by the United Nations (12,13) regarding sustainable production and consumption patterns includes target 12.3 which focuses on halving per capita food waste at the retail and household level by 2030 (14). Adopting a sustainable diet could be a strategy to limit the environmental impact of the food system and to make consumers more sensitive to the FLW problem (15,16). Several studies have stated that the Mediterranean diet, which has been largely recommended for many years for its health-protective aspects, is also sustainable (17). ...
Article
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IntroductionFood loss and waste are urgent problems to address. Recent estimates highlighted that the highest quantities of waste are generated at the household level and for this reason, the interest in this sector has increased over years.Methods To investigate if there is a connection between consumers’ behaviors aiming at reducing food waste and consumers’ choices in adopting healthy eating habits, a survey among a sample (n = 2,869) representative of the Italian population was carried out with the use of validated questionnaires.ResultsResults demonstrated that the higher the adherence to the Italian dietary guidelines indicator (AIDGI) the higher the score measuring household food waste behaviors (HFWB). In particular, the highest AIDGI corresponds to a preponderance of respondents that was more able to plan the shopping and the use of food (38.9%, p < 0.001), to better evaluate the quantities to cook (40.4%, p < 0.001), to avoid impulsive buying (35.2%, p < 0.01), to have a high knowledge of the food stored (38.4%, p < 0.001), to reuse leftovers (35.4%, p < 0.001), to assess food safety (34.7%, p < 0.001), to plan accurately (34.9%, p < 0.01), to know how to prolong the shelf life of a product (34%, p < 0.05), and to cook creatively (32%, p < 0.01). In addition to that, half of the respondents with the lowest AIDGI score did not receive any education regarding food waste (51.1%, p < 0.001). HFWB indicators globally resulted in scores ranging from 40 to 80% revealing the attention of Italians to food waste issues. Regarding eating habits, in half of the sample (50.4%) a consumption pattern with low adherence to nutritional recommendations was found, in particular among men (34.4%), younger age groups (40%), and people living in large families (42.3%).DiscussionThe overall results provided interesting information that could give input for planning nutrition education actions and identifying targets and topics to be addressed.
... The food industries (e.g., Coca-Cola Company and Nestle) have applied the LCA approach to assess and develop food products and packaging [17,18]. Some studies [19,20] have discussed that dietary shifts could powerfully contribute to increasing the sustainability of food systems, along with reducing meat consumption. ...
Article
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The meat industry has a substantial negative impact on the environment. As a result, this industry is in a period of change to alternative meat to mitigate the environmental issues caused by conventional meat production. Cultivated meat is highlighted as an alternative to conventional meat-based diets. SCiFi Foods has developed such a novel cultivated meat burger as a potential successor to the currently available burgers. Based on the process information provided by SCiFi Foods, this work performed a life cycle analysis on the novel cultivated meat burger and compared it with alternatives. The life cycle impacts of the novel burger were evaluated using four indicators: greenhouse gas emissions (CML-IA); energy use (cumulative energy demand); land use (ReCiPe midpoint); and water use (ReCiPe midpoint). The study found that the cultivated meat burger generated 87% less greenhouse gas emissions, required 39% less energy, had 90% less influence on land use, and 96% less water use than the comparable beef patty. The effects of uncertainty in the data, sensitivity to major assumptions, and the effect of the manufacturing plant location were analyzed. The studied burger was also found to have a life cycle environmental impact that is comparable with plant-based commercialized burgers that are currently available.
... Essa estabilidade apenas será alcançada com restrições ao uso dos combustíveis fósseis e modificações no padrão de consumo das populações, incluindo a alimentação 2 . Os estudos de impacto climático concluem que a estratégia de maior poder de mitigação das mudanças climáticas, por meio da alimentação é promovendo dietas com menor participação de alimentos de origem animal, sobretudo de carne bovina [3][4] . ...
Article
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OBJETIVO: Estimar o consumo de carne bovina e a sua influência nas pegadas de carbono e na pegada hídrica, bem como mesurar a qualidade nutricional da dieta no Brasil. MÉTODOS: A quantidade consumida de carne bovina e dos demais alimentos foi avaliada por dois registros alimentares de 24 horas em amostra representativa da população brasileira ≥ 10 anos de idade (n = 32.853) entre 2008 e 2009. O impacto ambiental da dieta considerou os coeficientes da pegada de carbono (gCO2e/kg) e da pegada hídrica (litros/kg) dos alimentos, bem como sua qualidade nutricional considerando a composição de cada alimento em nutrientes associados à prevenção de deficiências nutricionais ou ao aumento/diminuição do risco de doenças crônicas. Modelos de regressão linear e logística, brutos e ajustados para sexo, idade, escolaridade, renda, região e área, foram utilizados para estudar, respectivamente, a associação de quintos da contribuição calórica de carne bovina com os impactos ambientais da dieta e com a ingestão inadequada de nutrientes. RESULTADOS: As pegadas de carbono e hídrica e os teores de proteína, ferro, zinco, vitamina B12, gordura saturada e sódio foram maiores na fração da dieta composta por carnes bovinas, enquanto o teor de fibra e de açúcar de adição foram maiores na fração composta pelos demais alimentos. A contribuição dietética de carne bovina mostrou-se associada diretamente com as pegadas de carbono e hídrica da dieta e com o risco de ingestão excessiva de gordura saturada e de sódio, além de ingestão insuficiente de fibra, associando-se inversamente com o risco de ingestão insuficiente de proteína, ferro, zinco e vitamina B12. CONCLUSÃO: A redução no consumo de carne bovina no Brasil diminuiria as pegadas de carbono e hídrica da dieta, assim como o risco de doenças crônicas relacionadas à alimentação. Portanto, para não aumentar o risco de deficiências nutricionais, é sugerido o acompanhamento do aumento da ingestão de outros alimentos fontes de proteína, ferro, zinco e vitamina B12.
... nuts, legumes) and polluting (Poore and Nemecek, 2018;Shepon et al., 2018), especially compared to red and ruminant meats (10-100 fold impact; Clark et al., 2019Clark et al., , 2022. Likewise, diets with less animal products (e.g., healthy meat-reduced, no ruminant meat, veg*n) offer substantial environmental benefits, with vegan diets being the most eco-friendly (Hallström et al., 2015;Chai et al., 2019). Although modern plant-based diets increasingly include highly processed animal-product alternatives (e.g., sausages, burgers), which are usually more impactful than minimally processed plant foods (MacDiarmid, 2021), actual animal products are overall still less environmentally sustainable than these alternatives (Bryant, 2022;Clark et al., 2022). ...
Article
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Animal-based diets in Western countries are increasingly regarded as unsustainable because of their impact on human health, environmental and animal welfare. Promoting shifts toward more plant-based diets seems an effective way to avoid these harms in practice. Nevertheless, claims against the consumption of animal products contradict the ideology of the omnivorous majority known as carnism. Carnism supports animal-product consumption as a cherished social habit that is harmless and unavoidable and invalidates minorities with plant-based diets: vegetarians and vegans (veg*ns). In this theoretical review, we integrate socio-psychological and empirical literature to provide an identity-based motivational account of ideological resistance to veg*n advocacy. Advocates who argue against the consumption of animal products often make claims that it is harmful, and avoidable by making dietary changes toward veg*n diets. In response, omnivores are likely to experience a simultaneous threat to their moral identity and their identity as consumer of animal products, which may arouse motivations to rationalize animal-product consumption and to obscure harms. If omnivores engage in such motivated reasoning and motivated ignorance, this may also inform negative stereotyping and stigmatization of veg*n advocates. These “pro-carnist” and “counter-veg*n” defenses can be linked with various personal and social motivations to eat animal products (e.g., meat attachment, gender, speciesism) and reinforce commitment to and ambivalence about eating animal products. This does not mean, however, that veg*n advocates cannot exert any influence. An apparent resistance may mask indirect and private acceptance of advocates’ claims, priming commitment to change behavior toward veg*n diets often at a later point in time. Based on our theoretical account, we provide directions for future research.
... Studies have shown that agricultural production accounts for 14% of global anthropocentric GHGs emissions [1]. According to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in the UK, the emission rate of agricultural GHGs is accelerating day by day [2], and it was estimated that direct GHGs emissions from agriculture will rise by up to 30% if additional, related emissions such as fuel utilization by farm machinery, fertilizer production, and land use change are included in the estimates [3]. Therefore, how to reduce agricultural GHGs emissions has become a global concern. ...
Article
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The development of the greenhouse gas (GHGs) voluntary emission reduction market has created a new way for all agricultural GHGs emission reduction projects. Figuring out how to drive farmers to participate in the market is the key to the development of the agricultural voluntary emission reduction project mechanism. Current research on farmers’ participation in voluntary emission reduction projects has mostly been conducted from the perspective of the economic, social, and ecological benefits of the project and lacks research on analyzing farmers’ willingness to participate in combination with specific GHGs operational mechanisms. To find out how the operational mechanism of the field water management voluntary emission reduction (FWMVER) projects influences farmers’ willingness to participate in the project, this study constructed the attitude–context–behavior theoretical framework to consider the FWMVER operational mechanism. Based on the survey data of 789 rice farmers in GuangXi, China, the structural equation model (SEM) was adopted to analyze the impact of social networks, social trust, social norms, profit expectations, cost expectations, and satisfaction with the government in relation to the farmers’ willingness to participate in FWMVER projects. Results showed that social networks, social trust, social norms, profit expectations, cost expectations, and satisfaction with the government had significant impacts on the willingness of farmers to participate in FWMVER projects. Satisfaction with the government can effectively regulate the profit expectations and cost expectations for farmers to participate in the FWMVER projects. Policy implications were proposed based on analytical results to advise local governments to develop agricultural carbon finance, to improve public services in agricultural production, and to encourage establishing non-governmental organizations in rural areas involved in voluntary agricultural GHGs emission reduction projects.
... These methodological developments have helped deepen and broaden the field of agriculture and food LCAs, and harmonization efforts have led to convergence between results, so that some generalizations can be made regarding environmental impacts of food. Such generalizations include trends that meat is highly impactful, especially beef, and making dietary changes to reduce meat consumption is typically the most effective way of reducing food impacts (Hallström et al., 2015;Poore and Nemecek, 2018). Heated greenhouse production is often more impactful than open-field production, even though it has higher yields (Bartzas et al., 2015;Clune et al., 2017). ...
Thesis
The global food system causes massive environmental impacts, and faces the challenge of feeding an even larger, more urbanized population in the coming decades. Urban agriculture (UA) is a type of alternative agriculture, which may have environmental and social benefits, and comes in a large diversity of forms. These environmental benefits and impacts can be modeled with life cycle assessment (LCA). Application of LCA to UA is relatively recent, and has not undergone the same methodological reflections and adaptations that LCA of other sectors has. In this thesis project, I investigated 1) what LCA tells us about the environmental performance of UA, and 2) how best to apply LCA to UA. I performed a review and meta-analysis of UA LCAs, and reviewed literature on the development of LCA for agriculture in general. I did LCAs of nine urban farms and gardens in Paris, France and the Bay Area, California, USA, and (with the FEW-meter project) analyzed resource use and food production at 72 UA case studies. I summarized and generated knowledge on the environmental performance of UA, and created a methodological framework to improve consistency and completeness in UA LCAs.
... On a worldwide scale, alterations in dietary choices and a stronger tendency to meat and processed products consumption are likely to maximize the greenhouse gas emissions linked to the food supply by more than 80% in the year 2050 [12]. On the other side of the spectrum, a shift from the current common patterns to a more plant-based friendly diet could likely minimize the related greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 50% [13]. Given this, studying the global warming potential is of great importance. ...
Article
These days, one of the major threats in the world is climate change. It is already proven by a large number of strong evidence that human activities are responsible for these sudden changes. It is expected that in the future mankind will witness more severe consequences of climate change on the amount of precipitation and temperature levels in different regions of the world, and as a result of that, more both physical and economic water scarcity is anticipated to be seen. Each year food production industry produces a considerable amount of greenhouse gases which are the number one factor for global warming. By fluctuations in the groundwater, surface water, CO2 fertilization, and extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts, a drastic impact on agricultural practices is expected to occur in Iran if the current trends are not slowed down or reversed. Any disturbance in food security and quality could lead to malnutrition, food-borne illnesses, or even death. Crop cultivation and livestock have their own unique impact on the total emitted GHGs. Given this, in this study, we analyzed the food production (both animal-based and plant-based), consumption, and global warming potential (CO₂e) of 11 main dietary categories in the Iranian food industry from 2010 to 2019. Moreover, the population growth in the decade was included in the study. The results of this article revealed that vegetable consumption faced a downward trend in the decade while animal protein sources remained almost intact and animal-based food items produce a considerably higher amount of greenhouse gases than plant-based dietary options.
... Demand-side changes, such as adopting a flexitarian or plant-based diet, defined as "..fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, nuts, seeds, herbs, and spices and excludes all animal products" (Ostfeld, 2017), represent impactful strategies for mitigating GHGEs and other environmental footprints (Hallström et al., 2015;Springmann et al., 2018b) [We define plant based as Ostfeld, 2017 does: a diet that consists of ". . . fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, nuts, seeds hers, and spices and excludes all animal products."; ...
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Background Literature suggests limiting consumption of animal products is key to reducing emissions and adverse planetary impacts. However, influencing dietary behavior to achieve planetary health targets remains a formidable problem. Objective We investigated the effect of changing the default meal option at catered events–from meat to plant-based–on participants' meal choices using three parallel-group, balanced, randomized controlled trials (RCT), and use these experimental results to project differences in plant-based default vs. meat default events on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) (kg CO 2 − eq ), land use (m ² ), nitrogen (g N), and phosphorus (g P) footprint. Methods Data collection was performed at three catered events ( n = 280) across two college campuses. The selected experimental sites used convenience sampling. Events consisted of a graduate orientation, sorority dinner, and academic conference. Eligibility of individual participants included being 18 years or older and an invitation to RSVP for an enrolled event. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups: the control group received a RSVP form that presented a meat meal as the default catering option; whereas the intervention group received a form that presented a plant-based meal as the default. The primary outcome of interest in each group was the proportion of participants who selected plant-based meals. To explore environmental impacts, we modeled the footprints of four hypothetical meals. Using these meals and RCT results, the impact (GHGE, land use, nitrogen, phosphorus) of two hypothetical 100-person events was calculated and compared. Results In all, participants assigned to the plant-based default were 3.52 (95% CI: [2.44, 5.09]) times more likely to select plant-based meals than those assigned to the meat default. Using these results, a comparison of hypothetical events serving modeled meat-based and plant-based meals showed a reduction of up to 42.3% in GHGEs as well as similar reductions in land use (41.8%), nitrogen (38.9%), and phosphorus (42.7%). Conclusion Results demonstrated plant-based default menu options are effective, providing a low-effort, high-impact way to decrease consumption of animal products in catered events. These interventions can reduce planetary impact while maintaining participant choice.
... Changing consumption patterns towards lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for achieving the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement (UN General Assembly 2015). The most common suggestion for dietary intake is to lower meat consumption, especially from ruminants, and increase plant-based foods (Hallstrom et al. 2015;R€ o€ os et al. 2015). Previous research suggests diets based on theoretical calculations of how more climate-friendly diets can be achieved (Dooren 2018;R€ o€ os et al. 2015;Willett et al. 2019). ...
Article
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Abstract A high food intake can contribute to increased greenhouse-gas emissions, and therefore consumers with a high energy intake are important to include when exploring sustainable foodways. In this paper, semi-structured interviews and a seven-day food record were used to understand the climate impact of food, analyse mundane food practices, and identify sustainable routines among high-energy consumers represented by a group of recreational athletes. Social practice theory and the interdependent relationship between competence, material, and meaning unfold an Athletic performance-related food practice with a focus on performance, time-saving strategies, structured eating, and a possible Climate-conscious athletic performance-related food practice where the food practice also includes important sustainability aspects. The results indicate a high carbon footprint from high energy and dairy and whey protein intake. Some recreational athletes demonstrate an awareness of the climate impact of food, but they need to be convinced that more sustainable ways are possible without jeopardising athletic performance.
... Consuming animals "from nose to tail" improved environmental indicators but, depending on the scenario chosen, could impact the nutritional dimension (e.g., the consumption of milk and cheese, supplying calcium in particular, induced the consumption of butter supplying SFAs) [41]. Thus, when considering the food system, a near-vegetarian diet, including the consumption of dairy, eggs, and a small amount of meat, would be more sustainable than a vegetarian diet [41], which is often promoted as having the lowest environmental impact [41,42]. Similarly, in a population-based diet optimization, decreasing the amount of meat consumed was required to achieve more sustainable diets among individuals in France, but to a lower extent when considering co-produced animal food links between milk and beef and between blood sausage and pork [43]. ...
Article
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Diet optimization is a powerful approach for identifying more sustainable diets that simultaneously consider nutritional, economic, cultural, and environmental dimensions. This study aimed to develop an innovative multilevel approach called Individual Diet Including Global Objectives Optimization (INDIGOO) for designing diets that fulfill nutritional requirements and minimize dietary habit shifts at the individual level while attaining environmental impact reduction targets at the population level. For each individual in a representative sample from the French adult population (INCA2 survey 2006–2007; n = 1918), isocaloric and nutritionally adequate optimized diets with minimal shifts from the observed diet were designed. Environmental targets (including a 30% greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) reduction) were applied either similarly for each individual (original approach) or at the population level (INDIGOO). Compared with the original approach, INDIGOO enabled smaller dietary changes while distributing the contribution to the overall 30% GHGEs reduction more fairly among individuals (contributions ranging from −69.5% to +64%). For 6.4% of individuals, INDIGOO allowed an increase in GHGEs (+11% on average). Conversely, individuals with the greatest decrease in GHGEs (−45% on average) were characterized by high energy intake and high animal-based products, water, and other beverage consumption. INDIGOO is a promising multilevel approach to support food policy development.
... In addition, another complication is the lack of consensus on the meaning and wider uptake of SAI (Pywell et al., 2015;Musumba et al., 2017;Xie et al., 2019). This is coupled with insufficient attention to the drivers influencing water use in agricultural systems and practices in the landscape along the food chain (including producers, manufacturers, distributors and consumers) (Godfray and Garnett, 2014;Hallstrom et al., 2015;Macfadyen et al., 2015). Trade-offs must be addressed when implementing different interventions, as the process of intensification does not improve the efficiency of all inputs at a time or aligns different actors in input, such as water use (Struik and Kuyper, 2017). ...
Article
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The sustainable agricultural intensification (SAI) debate, partly rooted in discussions over the Green Revolution, was developed in the 1990s in the context of smallholder agriculture in Africa. In many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, production is still largely rainfed, with the prevalence of significant yield gaps and rapid environmental degradation. Projections indicate that climate and demographic changes will further intensify the competition for freshwater resources. Currently, SAI is centered around predominantly rain-fed agricultural systems, often at a farm and plot scales. There has been increased attention to the improved role of agricultural water management (AWM) to address the daunting challenges of climate change, land degradation and food and nutritional insecurity in SSA. Nonetheless, the supporting frameworks and tools remain limited and do not connect the sustainability assessment and the development of intensification pathways (SIP) along multiple scales of the rainfed irrigation continuum. This paper reviews the gaps in concepts and practices of SAI and suggests a methodological framework to design context-specific and water-centered SIP for the SSA region. Accordingly, the proposed methodological framework demonstrates: (a) how to couple sustainability assessment methods to participatory SIPs design and adaptive management approach; (b) how contextualized sustainability domains and indicators can help in AWM centered SIP development; (c) the approaches to handle multiple scales and water-related indicators, the heterogeneity of biophysical and social settings when tailoring technology options to local contexts; and (d) the principles which enable the SIP designs to enable synergies and complementarities of SAI measures to reinforce the rainfed-irrigation continuum. This methodological framework allows researchers to integrate the sustainability assessment and SIP design, and guides policymakers and practitioners in planning, implementing and monitoring SAI initiatives (e.g., Framework for Irrigation Development and Agricultural Water Management in Africa) across multiple scales.
... The extent to which different diets affect environmental sustainability is relatively well-researched and has been shown to be substantial (Aleksandrowicz et al., 2016;Hallström et al., 2015). Despite the robust scientific evidence suggesting that whole-food, plant-based diets centred around the consumptions of whole-foods (e.g., vegetables, legumes, fruits, whole grains, nuts and seeds) have both environmental and public health benefits (Dinu et al., 2017;Sabaté and Soret, 2014;Springmann et al., 2016;Tilman and Clark, 2014), only 8 percent of the global population follows a meat-free (i.e., vegetarian) or plant-based (i.e., vegan) diet (Ipsos, 2018). ...
Article
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More than one third of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) can be attributed to our food system. Limiting global warming to 1.5° or 2 °C will not be possible without reducing GHG emissions from the food system. Dietary change at the meal level is of great importance as day-to-day consumption patterns drive the global food production system. The aim of this paper was to assess the life cycle environmental impact of a sample of meals from different cuisines (chilli, lasagne, curry and teriyaki meals) and their meat-based, vegetarian, vegan, and whole-food vegan recipe variations. The environmental impacts (global warming, freshwater eutrophication, terrestrial acidification and water depletion potential) of 13 meals, made with 33 different ingredients, were estimated from cradle to plate using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Results showed that irrespective of the type of cuisine, the plant-based version of meals (vegan and whole-food vegan) had substantially lower environmental impacts across all impact categories than their vegetarian and meat-based versions. On average, meat-based meals had 14 times higher environmental impact, while vegetarian meals had 3 times higher environmental impact than vegan meals. Substantial reductions in the environmental impacts of meals can be achieved when animal-based ingredients (e.g., beef, cheese, pork, chicken) are replaced with whole or minimally processed plant-based ingredients (i.e., vegetables, legumes) in recipes. Swapping animal-based meals for plant-based versions, and preferably transitioning to plant-based diets, present important opportunities for mitigating climate change and safeguarding environmental sustainability.
... One of the major contributors to GHG emissions is the global food system, which accounts for around 30% of total emissions [2]. Although there are several ways to reduce GHG emissions from the food system, such as reducing food waste [3], reducing the use of fossil fuel in agriculture, and reducing emissions from the transportation of food [4], one important possibility is to change what we actually choose to eat, and to substitute a high-GHG emission diet and high-GHG emission products with a low-GHG emission diet and low-GHG emission products [5][6][7][8]. The emissions reduced 1. ...
Article
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Public knowledge about the differences in greenhouse gas emissions caused by the production and transportation of different kinds of food are generally low. People with an interest in choosing food with low greenhouse gas emissions must therefore either increase this “food carbon literacy” or be provided with such information when they decide what food to buy. Research about this specific kind of food literacy is, however, scarce, lacking both well-defined terminology and interventions attempting to increase food carbon literacy. In this paper we provide a framework for future research in the area by defining “food carbon literacy”, serving as a starting point for categorizing, comparing, and generalizing future research findings. Drawing on previous work on other kinds of literacies, we distinguish between (1) food carbon literacy, (2) food product carbon literacy, (3) food handling carbon literacy, and (4) financial food carbon literacy. We have furthermore developed and tested a digital behavior change intervention in the form of a digital grocery list used on mobile phones. The list works as other digital grocery shopping lists, but also displays the CO2e footprint of the food added to the list, thereby enabling the user to change products at the planning stage and increase their food carbon literacy. It was tested on a group of 38 people for a duration of 2 weeks. The goals of the pilot study were to investigate quantitatively whether such a tool would increase food carbon literacy, and to investigate qualitatively how such a tool could be used and designed. The results show a strong increase in food carbon literacy for food the respondents had added to their grocery lists, but also for food that had not been added to their lists, indicating a generalization of the knowledge. Finally, we provide implications for the design of such systems, based on the qualitative evaluation.
... Over the last decades, it has become clear that worldwide food consumption and food production systems have a substantial impact on the environment. The livestock sector seems the most resource-intensive and polluting sector of the food industry since it has a big impact on greenhouse-gas emissions, use of freshwater, and land (Global Agriculture, 2020.; Godfray, 2019;Hallström, Carlsson-Kanyama, & Börjesson, 2015;Vinnari & Tapio, 2009). To specify, the production of beef in the livestock sector is the most burdensome practice as it uses about 70 % of the world's agricultural land (van Zanten, et al, 2018). ...
Thesis
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The environmental pressure caused by meat production together with the growth of global meat consumption necessitates a shift in our dietary behavior from an animal-based diet to a more plant-based diet. An alternative for meat could be plant-based meat substitutes since meat substitutes can have a lower environmental impact than meat. Despite the growth of the market of meat substitutes, the adoption of these products by consumers is a slow process. Not only the properties of the product itself but also contextual factors (e.g., the usage situation or the meal) could influence consumer acceptance of meat substitutes. The overall aim of this thesis was to identify the roles of the product, the context and consumer characteristics in the acceptance of meat substitutes. The experiences and perceptions that consumers had of meat substitutes were explored in consumer focus group discussions. These revealed that health aspects and easy preparation were regarded as positive aspects of meat substitutes, whereas lack of information on the package, and high price were reported as negative. Positive and negative sensory attributes were mentioned and when photographs of examples of meals with meat substitutes were presented, then most consumers found the use of meat substitutes appropriate in those dishes. A web-based survey was developed to let consumers (N=251) assess the use of meat substitutes in different dishes. Six different dishes (spaghetti, rice, wrap, pizza, pasta salad, and soup) were rated for their appropriateness for the use of meat substitutes. Subsequently, appropriateness, attractiveness, and use-intention were rated based on photographs of the six dishes prepared with meat substitutes that differed in shape and appearance. Respondents also had to indicate (un)desirable sensory properties of meat substitutes for every dish. Spaghetti, rice, and wrap were found more appropriate for the use of meat substitutes than the other dishes. The most appropriate meat substitute–meal combinations were those that are similar to common Dutch meal combinations (e.g., spaghetti with mince and rice with pieces). Attractiveness and intention scores were in line with the appropriateness scores. Furthermore, we found that users of meat substitutes and younger respondents gave higher appropriateness ratings. The role of meal context on the acceptance of meat substitutes was studied further in a central location test. A total of 93 participants tasted and rated meals with meat substitutes on overall liking, product liking (liking of the meat substitute in the meal), appropriateness and intention-to-use, and individual meat substitutes were rated on overall liking. Meat substitutes with similar flavor and texture, but with different shapes (pieces and mince), were rated differently in four meals (rice, spaghetti, soup, and salad) on product liking, appropriateness and intention-to-use, but not differently on overall liking of the meals. Meat substitutes with similar shapes, but different flavors and textures rated differently on overall liking when tasted separately, but did not always differ in product liking when tasted in a rice meal. Appropriateness seemed to be influenced by the appearance of the meat substitute-meal combination, and less by the experienced flavor and texture. Perceived situational appropriateness of meat, meat substitutes and other meat alternatives in different usage situations using an item-by-use appropriateness survey. Products were presented via photographs and for each combination of product and situation, the appropriateness was rated on a 7-point scale. Personal information included the consumption of meat and meat substitutes and Food Neophobia. An exploratory survey was conducted in 2004 and an online survey in 2019. Overall, meat products were perceived as more appropriate than their vegetarian equivalents (e.g., hamburger vs. vegetarian hamburger) in almost all situations. Meat alternatives (chickpeas, nuts) scored generally higher than meat substitutes on situational appropriateness. Age and gender affected appropriateness ratings: women and younger respondents gave higher ratings to meat substitutes and meat alternatives. Food Neophobia showed a small effect. Meat substitute consumption frequency was a predictor of overall appropriateness in 2019, whereas it was not in 2004. Finally, twenty in-depth interviews were performed to discover associations of Dutch current users of meat substitutes with the terms ‘eating vegetarian’ and ‘meat substitutes’. Furthermore, their motives for the appropriateness of the use of four meat substitutes in six different usage situations were investigated. The meat substitutes (vegetarian minced meat, vegetarian hamburger, vegetarian steak, and vegetarian stir-fry pieces) were presented as photographs and the usage situations (e.g., eating with family, having little time to cook) were described and the participants were asked to express why the meat substitutes were (in)appropriate in the usage situations. The term ‘Eating vegetarian’ was mostly associated with not eating meat or with specific meat alternatives, and the most mentioned motive for eating vegetarian was ‘environmental impact’, followed by ‘health’ and ‘animal welfare’. The thematic content analysis yielded seven categories for the motives given for the (in)appropriateness of the four meat substitutes in six usage situations: ‘functionality’, ‘convenience’, ‘properties’, ‘preferences’, ‘association with meat’, ‘association with meals’, and ‘nutrition’. Mainly motives in the categories convenience and functionality (function of the meat substitute in a meal) were mentioned for all situations and other motives were situation-specific. Concluding, meat substitutes could become successful alternatives to meat, as they are perceived as convenient and versatile products. Meal context should play a central role in the design of new meat substitutes, as the combination of the meat substitute and the meal, and not so much the meat substitute itself, determines the acceptance of these products. Situational context plays a role as well; e.g, meat substitutes are perceived as appropriate for a dinner at home with the family, but not for special occasions. Challenges that need to be faced are the dual image of meat substitutes of being plant-based, healthy and low fat on the one hand, and unnatural, fake and processed on the other hand. Consumer acceptance and appropriateness of meat substitutes is still lower than that of meat, but increasing their familiarity could help overcome this issue and pave the way for a successful societal shift toward a more plant-based diet.
... In Western countries, a reduction of meat consumption is a current trend in some subgroups of the population (13) and a strong prospect for the years to come (14). This trend can be explained by concerns regarding human health, animal welfare and the environment, amongst others (15)(16)(17)(18)(19). Meat, and especially processed meat, contributes to intakes of SFA and sodium (20,21), and its reduction could help to reduce excessive intakes of these nutrients (22). ...
Article
Background & Aims Reducing meat consumption is a current trend and a strong prospect for the future in Western countries, but its dietary modalities and nutrient challenges remain poorly documented. Using diet optimization under a broad set of constraints, we tried to identify a sequential meat reduction transition and analyze its nutrient issues and dietary levers. Methods Based on the consumption of French adults (INCA3, n=1 125, 18-64 years old), we modeled a transition towards a nutritionally adequate healthy dietary pattern under the constraint of a gradual reduction in meat consumption in successive 10% steps. Using a multi-criteria optimization procedure, the diet modeled at each meat reduction step was to be healthier but close to the previous diet. Results The most significant changes occurred early in the modeled transition process, with drastic reductions in processed and red meats in favor of poultry, which rapidly became the predominant meat before gradually decreasing from 50% to 100% meat reduction. At the same time, whole grain products, fruits and vegetables consumption increased rapidly to reach a plateau from 50% meat reduction onwards. Some nutrients were limiting, in particular bioavailable iron and zinc, and vitamin A, but sufficient intakes were achieved by restructuring diets based on food groups other than meat. Other nutrients mainly supplied by meat such as vitamin B6 and B12, protein and indispensable amino acids, were never limiting. Conclusion Healthy and nutritionally adequate food patterns can be identified throughout a transition to complete meat reduction. After a 50% reduction in meat consumption, poultry is almost the only meat remaining and its further reduction makes the diet only marginally healthier.
... While emerging meat replacements are improved and scaled up, conventional meat replacements, such as tofu and pulses, can already now greatly increase the sustainability of our food systems. Switching from a typical European diet to a diet without meat and other animal products can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and land use by up to 50% (Hallström et al., 2015). Reduced meat consumption also plays a key role in tackling biodiversity loss (Machovina et al., 2015) and other major environmental challenges. ...
Chapter
Agriculture, especially the livestock sector, hugely stresses the environment through its climate change, land use, and water use impacts, among others. Hence, reducing meat consumption can greatly reduce agriculture’s heavy environmental burden. Meat replacements can deliver similar nutrients, and some even mimic meat to facilitate substitution. However, replacements come with their own environmental impacts, which can be highly uncertain, particularly for emerging replacements. This chapter synthesizes the environmental impacts of meat (poultry, pork, and beef) compared to conventional (seafood, eggs, tofu and tempeh, pulses, and nuts) and emerging (plant-based meat analogs, algae, mycoprotein, insects, and cultured meat) meat replacements. We compare their environmental impacts based on life cycle assessment and highlight impact hotspots, opportunities for improvement, and key research gaps. Overall, while conventional replacements already offer more sustainable alternatives to meat, emerging replacements often result in trade-offs that we can proactively tackle today to reduce environmental impacts in the future.
... Food production and consumption are major drivers of climate change [2,3]. The EAT Lancet Commission concluded that there is a strong need to reduce the consumption of animal-based foods and increase the consumption of plant-based foods globally for both environmental and health reasons [4]. ...
Article
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This study investigated whether Finnish working-aged omnivores (n = 163) could be nudged into replacing red meat with a fava-bean-based protein source via “Dish of the Day” (DoD) and main dish sequence alteration (SA) strategies in a controlled real-world Finnish self-service buffet restaurant with smart scales (Flavoria® Multidisciplinary Research Platform). A further aim was to study whether the effectiveness of the strategies differed by gender, age, and body mass index. The participants were assigned one of four experimental treatments: standard menu (T1), DoD (T2), standard menu + SA (T3), or DoD + SA (T4). The participants could choose any amount or combination of salad components and casseroles with minced meat or fava bean protein. Being subjected to a DoD menu and/or SA had no effect on main dish choice or the share of the meat-based dish in the meal weight. Men were more likely to choose a meat-based main dish and had a higher share of the meat dish in the meal weight compared to women, but no differences were observed between those aged 18–29, 30–44, or 45–65 years or those who were normal weight, overweight, or obese. Future studies should have a larger sample size and investigate food choice motives such as price or environmental awareness.
... Consumers may not be well aware of the environmental and economic impacts of their daily food choices [29,30]. However, the habitual food consumption that constitutes the DPs cumulatively imposes an enormous impact on the environment and the economy in different ways, including through food waste generation [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Some researchers acknowledged diet as a factor linked with HFW [12,[38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46]. ...
Article
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Current household food waste (HFW) reduction plans usually focus on raising consumer awareness, which is essential but insufficient because HFW is predominantly attributed to unconscious behavioral factors that vary across consumer groups. Therefore, identifying such factors is crucial for predicting HFW levels and establishing effective plans. This study explored the role of dietary patterns (DP) and socioeconomic status (SES) as predictors of HBW using linear and non-linear regression models. Questionnaire interviews were performed in 419 households in Shiraz during 2019. A multilayer sampling procedure including stratification, clustering, and systematic sampling was used. Three main DPs, i.e., unhealthy, Mediterranean, and traditional, were identified using a food frequency questionnaire. Results indicated that a one-unit rise in the household’s unhealthy DP score was associated with an average increase in HBW of 0.40%. Similarly, a one-unit increase in the unhealthy DP score and the SES score increased the relative likelihood of bread waste occurrence by 25.6% and 14.5%, respectively. The comparison of findings revealed inconsistencies in HFW data, and therefore the necessity of studying HFW links to factors such as diet and SES. Further investigations that explore HFW associations with household characteristics and behavioral factors will help establish contextual and effective consumer-focused plans.
... In addition, a review comparing the results of several studies relating different dietary patterns to the produced GHGe and the land use required for the production of the diets revealed that the least GHGe and land use requirements were observed in vegetarian and other "healthy" diets. Nevertheless, the substitution of red meat with poultry may induce a lower impact on global warming [38]. However, there is the risk that reducing animal foods will lead to a subsequent reduction in protein intake, so ideally, they should be replaced by alternative protein sources. ...
Article
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Climate change can have economic consequences, affecting the nutritional intake of populations and increasing food insecurity, as it negatively affects diet quality parameters. One way to mitigate these consequences is to change the way we produce and consume our food. A healthy and sustainable diet aims to promote and achieve the physical, mental, and social well-being of the populations at all life stages, while protecting and safeguarding the resources of the planet and preserving biodiversity. Over the past few years, several indexes have been developed to evaluate dietary sustainability, most of them based on the EAT-Lancet reference diet. The present review explains the problems that arise in human nutrition as a result of climate change and presents currently available diet sustainability indexes and their applications and limitations, in an effort to aid researchers and policy actors in identifying aspects that need improvement in the development of relevant indexes. Overall, great heterogeneity exists among the indicators included in the available indexes and their methodology. Furthermore, many indexes do not adequately account for the diets’ environmental impact, whereas others fall short in the economic impact domain, or the ethical aspects of sustainability. The present review reveals that the design of one environmentally friendly diet that is appropriate for all cultures, populations, patients, and geographic locations is a difficult task. For this, the development of sustainable and healthy diet recommendations that are region-specific and culturally specific, and simultaneously encompass all aspects of sustainability, is required.
... This study will investigate the impact of social influence on the consumption of meat and non-meat diets. We will focus on meat consumption partly because interest in nonmeat diets has been growing rapidly across the world in recent years, and also because there is a wide consensus now that increased meat consumption is linked to higher health risks [2,[6][7][8][9] and substantial environmental damage [44][45][46]. Using data from the 2014 British Social Attitude (BSA) Survey [47] and through the construction of an agent-based model, this study will enhance our understanding of the impact of social interactions and peer influence on the dynamics of the spread of various meat-eating behaviours. ...
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The livelihoods of the people in Europe and globally are at risk because of the still increasing deterioration of our environment. As the recent Global Sustainable Development Report (GSDR) 1 outlines, most of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their detailed targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development2 are in danger of being missed, including the targets of the Paris Agreement on climate change3. Some of them even show negative long-term trends including some closely connected to environmental themes, eg the goals on water (SDG 6), sustainable consumption and production (SDG 12), climate (SDG 13) and life on land (SDG 14) and below water (SDG 15). Also, many SDGs addressing the social dimension of sustainability show no significant positive trends. The GSDR thus stresses the need to jointly address these challenges across the SDGs, and not handle them separately in sectoral approaches. The European Union (EU), although in an excellent position to become a front-runner with respect to SDG implementation, also lacks behind in the implementation of many SDGs to reach the 2030 targets4. The report of Eurostat on the SDGs in Europe5, a report by the European Court of Auditors6, the comment of the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) 7 and the State of the Environment Report 2019 of the European Environment Agency8 showcase the needs for further actions–in implementing activities to reach the SDGs in general, but also in the ways this implementation is mainstreamed across policy sectors and the financing of the EU.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has not only affected healthcare systems and global economies but also directly impacted food security and purchasing behaviors. The aim of this study is to investigate if COVID-19 has induced changes in public interest regarding Food Sustainability and healthy-sustainable dietary patterns across Europe and in European regions. A Google Trends search was performed using the search terms “Food Sustainability + Sustainable Diet + Sustainable Food” (grouped as “Food Sustainability”) and the topics “Sustainability”, “Healthy Diet”, “Mediterranean Diet”, and “Flexitarianism” for the years 2010 to 2022. Data were obtained for 12 countries in Europe. The trends in interest after the COVID-19 outbreak were forecast based on previous data. After the COVID-19 outbreak, an increase in Food Sustainability interest was observed and was higher than forecast based on the previous data. A significant interest increase in Sustainability was observed; nevertheless, this increase was smaller than the forecast increase. Mixed results were obtained for dietary patterns across European regions, yet, considering the mean interest for Europe, it seems that the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak dampened the interest in dietary patterns such as the Healthy Diet and Flexitarianism and promoted an interest in the Mediterranean Diet. Understanding consumers’ beliefs and behaviors toward food choices is crucial for the transition towards sustainable diets, and definitions of educational and behavioral interventions are essential to this transition.
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Cultured meat is still under development but could possibly serve as a meat alternative. As a result, the acceptance and perception of cultured meat have received considerable attention in consumer research. However, only few comparisons to meat or meat alternatives have been made, which makes it unclear how cultured meat compares to these products. This is the first study to directly compare cultured meat to plant‐based meat alternatives (PBMA), fish, insects, and conventional meat. Dutch consumers (n = 288) evaluated their perception and willingness to consume (WTC) patties made from the five sources listed above. Consumer segmentation based on the WTC ratings was performed, and the resulting clusters were compared in terms of their preferences, perception of cultured meat, and demographic and psychographic variables. To see if naming affected consumers’ cultured meat perception, respondents were assigned to one of five naming conditions for cultured meat. The clusters analysis yielded three clusters, two of which showed moderate WTC cultured meat. The first cluster could be characterized as “meat lovers.” Their WTC was strongest for conventional meat, followed by cultured meat, and tastiness was their main driver of WTC. The second cluster's preference was fish, followed by PBMA, with naturalness, safety, and tastiness being their drivers of WTC. The third cluster's highest WTC was for PBMA, followed by cultured meat. Among their drivers of WTC were healthiness, sustainability, and animal friendliness. Psychographic variables were highly valuable in explaining the clusters. Finally, no effects of naming for cultured meat were observed. The results contribute to the design of guidelines to promote different meat alternatives considering specific target populations.
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Aims: This study aimed to compare the environmental impacts and diet qualities of popular diet models with the recommendations of the Turkish national dietary guidelines. Methods: Seven-day isocaloric (8368 kJ) diet models were created taking into account the Mediterranean, Atkins (20/40/100), Ornish, Zone diets, and Turkey Dietary Guidelines-2015 recommendations with different food and nutrient contents. Water footprints were evaluated using the global water footprint standards. Greenhouse gas emissions were evaluated using carbon footprint factors compiled as a result of meta-analyses of life cycle analysis studies in the literature. In addition, the quality of diets was evaluated with the Diet Quality Index-International. Results: Atkins20 diet model had the most harmful environmental impact (greenhouse gas emissions 8.74 kg CO2 -eq/per/day and total water footprint 7731 L/per/day), whereas Ornish and Mediterranean diet models (greenhouse gas emissions 2.2/3.07 kg CO2 -eq/per/day and total water footprints 3184/3675 L/per/day, respectively) had less harmful environmental impact. The highest Diet Quality Index-International score was in the Ornish diet model while the lowest Diet Quality Index-International was in the Atkins20 diet model. Conclusion: Ornish and Mediterranean diet models had less harmful environmental impacts, which contributed to sustainable nutrition. The importance of diet quality and environmental impacts should be kept in mind when evaluating diet models to ensure sustainable nutrition.
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Citation: Maffia, A.; Palese, A.M.; Pergola, M.; Altieri, G.; Celano, G. The Olive-Oil Chain of Salerno Province (Southern Italy): A Life Cycle Sustainability Framework.
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This study explores whether the widespread dissemination of Western-type culture and the globalization of food production and consumption that have characterized Italy for decades may have influenced red and processed meat consumption across generations. For the purpose of our study, we constructed a pseudo-panel derived from repeated cross-sections of the annual household survey, "Aspects of Daily Life," that was part of the Multipurpose Survey carried out by the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT) from 1997 to 2012. We adopted an APC (Age, Period, Cohort) approach that involves age, period, and cohort effects. We followed the experiences of four cohorts: the Silent Generation (born 1926-1945), the Baby Boomer 1 Generation (1946-1955), the Baby Boomer 2 Generation (1956-1965), and Generation X (1966-1980). Our results revealed that increases in disposable income, changes in women's role in society, and urbanization and globalization have had significant effects on consumption patterns. The analysis shows that the older generations have changed their diets more in favor of meat consumption than later generations, with more change in the relatively affluent north of the country compared with the south, while the youngest generations are more likely to adopt more healthful and environmentally sustainable eating patterns.
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Objective Eating a variety of nutritious foods is fundamental to good nutrition. However, this principle is challenged when recommendations seeking to improve the environmental sustainability of diets call for avoidance of foods considered to have a higher environmental footprint, such as animal-sourced foods. Our objective was to assess the implications for nutritional adequacy of protein choice across Australian adult diets preselected as having higher quality and lower environmental impact scores. Design Each individual diet was assessed for variety of food choice within the “Fresh meat and alternatives” food group defined in the Australian Dietary Guidelines, which includes protein-rich foods such as eggs, nuts, tofu, and legumes in addition to animal meats. Diets were grouped according to variety score and whether they included only animal meats, only alternatives, or a variety of meat and alternatives. Nutrient content was assessed relative to Estimated Average Requirements. Setting Australia Participants 1,700 adults participating in the Australian Health Survey Results For diets with higher diet quality and lower environmental impact, the likelihood of achieving nutrient EARs significantly increased as variety of food choice in the “Fresh meat and alternatives” food group increased (P<0.001). Variety score and number of serves were also correlated (r=0.52, P<0.001) which is relevant since most diets did not meet the recommended minimum number of serves for this food group. Conclusions Greater variety within the “Fresh meat and alternatives” food group is beneficial to meeting EARs and lower environmental impact diets can include 3 or more selections including foods of animal origin.
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Purpose The purpose of this research is to (1) identify factors affecting food choices of young adults in Canada based on environmental perceptions, personal and behavioral factors as determinants of eating behaviors; (2) segment Canadian young adults based on the importance of the identified factors in their food choices. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was administered to Canadians aged between 18 and 24 to collect data on socio-demographic factors and eating behaviors ( N = 297). An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to identify the main factors affecting eating behaviors in young adults, followed by K-means clustering to categorize the respondents into consumer segments based on their propensity to agree with the factors. Findings Six factors were extracted: beliefs (ethical, environmental and personal); familiarity and convenience; joy and experience; food influencers and sociability; cultural identity; and body image. Using these factors, six consumer segments were identified, whereby members of each segment have more similar scores on each factor than members of other segments. The six consumer segments were: “conventional”; “concerned”; “indifferent”; “non-trend follower”; “tradition-follower”; and “eat what you love”. Originality/value Identifying major factors influencing eating behaviors and consumer segmentation provides insights on how eating behaviors might be shaped. Furthermore, the outcomes of this study are important for designing effective interventions for shaping eating behaviors particularly improving sustainable eating habits.
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Lock-in and path-dependency are well-known concepts in economics dealing with unbalanced development of alternative options. Lock-in was studied in various sectors, considering production or consumption sides. Lock-in in academic research went little addressed. Yet, science develops through knowledge accumulation and cross-fertilisation of research topics, that could lead to similar phenomena when some topics do not sufficiently benefit from accumulation mechanisms, reducing innovation opportunities from the concerned field consequently. We introduce an original method to explore these phenomena by comparing topic trajectories in research fields according to strong or weak accumulative processes over time. We combine the concepts of ‘niche’ and ‘mainstream’ from transition studies with scientometric tools to revisit Callon’s strategic diagram with a diachronic perspective of topic clusters over time. Considering the trajectories of semantic clusters, derived from titles and authors’ keywords extracted from scholarly publications in the Web of Science, we applied our method to two competing research fields in food sciences and technology related to pulses and soya over the last 60 years worldwide. These highly interesting species for the sustainability of agrifood systems experienced unbalanced development and thus is under-debated. Our analysis confirms that food research for soya was more dynamic than for pulses: soya topic clusters revealed a stronger accumulative research path by cumulating mainstream positions while pulses research did not meet the same success. This attempt to unpack research lock-in for evaluating the competition dynamics of scientific fields over time calls for future works, by strengthening the method and testing it on other research fields.
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Many studies have analysed the environmental impact of vegan, vegetarian, or reduced meat diets. To date, literature has not evaluated how diet shifts affect environmental impacts by utilising portfolios which reflect personal nutrition preferences. Further, changing diets could alter the available land for non-food uses. This paper defines novel diet portfolios to outline alternative diet transitions and choices within the population and finds their effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primary energy use, and land use in Germany. The aim of this study is to capture how these diet shifts affect land availability and increase the options for land-based climate change mitigation strategies. To do so, a contextualisation is made to compare the use of freed-up land for afforestation or biomethane production (with and without carbon capture and storage). The investigated diet portfolios lead to a reduction of the investigated impacts (GHG emissions: 7–67%; energy use: 5–46%; land use: 6–64%). Additionally, afforestation of freed-up land from each diet portfolio leads to further emission removals of 4–37%. In comparison, using the land to produce energy crops for biomethane production could lead to 2–23% further CO²-eq emission reductions when replacing fossil methane. If biomethane production is paired with carbon capture and storage, emission abatement is increased to 3–34%. This research indicates various short-term pathways to reduce GHG emissions with portfolio diet shifts. Utilising freed-up land for climate change mitigation strategies could prove essential to meet climate targets, but trade-offs with, e.g. biodiversity and ecosystem services exist and should be considered.
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Rapid economic growth and urbanization are driving a growing and changing demand for food in China. However, food production has contributed significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) and human-induced nitrogen emissions. Specifically, beef and pork are two major contributors to China's direct GHG footprint from livestock. The shift from conventional meat to meat protein alternatives is reportedly one of the promising strategies to reduce resource use and emissions. The paper narratively reviews the literature on whether novel meat alternatives can contribute to the attainment of sustainable development goal 2 (SDG 2), whether meat alternatives have a lower ecological footprint, and whether its supply is sustainable – a step toward achieving SDG 12. We observed that most studies portrayed the environmental footprint of meat alternatives in favourable terms, with few dissenting opinions. In addition, meat alternatives have been shown to expand the supply of protein, possess attributes that are important for food stability and can increase the availability of protein-rich foods to meet the nutritional needs of people. However, there are safety concerns and negative perceptions among the public. The insights from this study will be useful in assessing the prospects and informing decisions in moving towards responsible production, consumption and food security in China.
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This chapter is a case study of the vision that people form São Rafael comunity have of the animals. How they treat theam, how the comunity interpret cases of diferent violence directed to diferent animals, for example. And speacially, the specism intricated in those multiespecies relations.
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Interest in meat consumption and its impact on the environment and health has grown markedly over the last few decades and this upsurge has led to greater demand for reliable data. This article aims to describe methods for producing meat-consumption statistics and discuss their limitations and strengths; to identify uncertainties in statistics and to estimate their individual impact; to outline how relevant data are produced and presented at the national (Swedish), regional (Eurostat), and international (FAOSTAT) levels; to analyze the consequences of identified discrepancies and uncertainties for estimating the environmental and health effects of meat consumption; and to suggest recommendations for improved production, presentation, and use of meat-consumption statistics. We demonstrate many inconsistencies in how meat-consumption data are produced and presented. Of special importance are assumptions on bone weight, food losses and waste, weight losses during cooking, and nonmeat ingredients. Depending on the methods employed to handle these ambiguous factors, per capita meat-consumption levels may differ by a factor of two or more. This finding illustrates that knowledge concerning limitations, uncertainties, and discrepancies in data is essential for a correct understanding, interpretation, and use of meat-consumption statistics in, for instance, dietary recommendations related to health and environmental issues.
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We assess the quantitative potential for future land management to help rebalance the global carbon cycle by actively removing carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere with simultaneous bio-energy offsets of CO 2 emissions, whilst meeting global food demand, preserving natural ecosystems and minimising CO 2 emissions from land use change. Four alternative future scenarios are considered out to 2050 with different combinations of high or low technology food production and high or low meat diets. Natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the dietary demands of the global population. Dedicated bio-energy crops can only be grown on land that is already under management but is no longer needed for food production. We find that there is only room for dedicated bio-energy crops if there is a marked increase in the efficiency of food production (sustained annual yield growth of 1%, shifts towards more efficient animals like pigs and poultry, and increased recycling of wastes and residues). If there is also a return to lower meat diets, biomass energy with carbon storage (BECS) as CO 2 and biochar could remove up to 5.2 Pg C per year in 2050 and lower atmospheric CO 2 in 2050 by 25 ppm. With the current trend to higher meat diets there is only room for limited expansion of bio-energy crops after 2035 and instead BECS must be based largely on biomass residues, removing up to 3.6 Pg C per year in 2050 and lowering atmospheric CO 2 in 2050 by 13 ppm. A high-meat, low-efficiency future would be a catastrophe for natural ecosystems (and thus for the humans that depend on their services) with around 9.3 Gha under cultivation in 2050 and a net increase in atmospheric CO 2 in 2050 by 55 ppm due to land use changes. We conclude that future improvements in agricultural efficiency, especially in the livestock sector, could make a decisive contribution to tackling climate change, but this would be maximised if the global trend towards more meat intensive diets can be reversed.
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Background Recent scientific investigations have revealed a correlation between nutrition habits and the environmental impacts of agriculture. So, it is obviously worthwhile to study what effects a change in diet has on land use patterns, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production. This study calculates the amount of energy and emission savings as well as changes in land use that would result from different scenarios underlying a change in diet. Methods Based on the healthy eating recommendations of the German Nutrition Society, meat consumption in Austria should decrease by about 60%, and consumption of fruits and vegetables has to increase strongly. Results This investigation showed that compliance with healthy eating guidelines leads to lower energy demand and a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, largely due to a decrease in livestock numbers. Furthermore, arable land and grassland no longer needed for animal feed production becomes redundant and can possibly be used for the production of raw materials for renewable energy. The scenario examination shows that in the self-sufficiency scenario and in the import/export scenario, up to 443,100 ha and about 208,800 ha, respectively, of arable land and grassland are released for non-food uses. The cumulative energy demand of agriculture is lower by up to 38%, and the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture decrease by up to 37% in these scenarios as against the reference situation. Conclusion The land use patterns for the scenario demonstrate that animal feed production still takes up the largest share of agricultural land even though the extent of animal husbandry decreased considerably in the scenarios.
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1. Key findings This study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It also reduces emissions of greenhouse gases from primary production by 19%. A switch from beef or sheepmeat (red meat) to pork or poultry (white meat) reduces food consumption related greenhouse gas emissions and theland area required but increases overseas arable land use. With this exception, the release of arable land now used to grow animal feed exceeds the additional arable land required for increased plant based foods in both the UK and overseas. Reducing livestock product consumption also has the potential to enable delivery of other significant environmental benefits, for example, reductions in ammonia and nitrate emissions. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces UK grassland needs for UK food production by several million hectares. This land could be used tosupply livestock products for export markets although our scenarios assume that the proportions of imports,domestic production and exports remain constant. In these circumstances, some of the grassland released could be used to produce arable crops, including crops for biofuel production. Almost all of it could be converted to woodland or managed in other ways for biodiversity and/or amenity purposes. Conversion of this land resource to woodland has significant potential to increase soil carbon storage while supplying biomass for energy. Cropped area required, kha Grassland area required, kha Greenhouse gas emissions, kt CO2e/year * Scenario UK OS Total UK OS Total Total area, kha UK OS Total Baseline 3,388 4,458 7,846 11,228 1,944 13,172 21,018 51,693 29,001 80,694 50% reduction in livestock with land release priority: Uniform 3,123 4,131 7,254 4,161 700 4,861 12,115 36,282 29,456 65,738 Maximise non-tillable land release 3,123 4,131 7,254 2,905 700 3,605 10,859 36,246 29,451 65,697 Maximise release of tillable land 3,123 4,131 7,254 7,102 700 7,802 15,056 36,282 29,457 65,739 Red to white meat with land release priority: Uniform 3,443 4,908 8,351 3,879 486 4,365 12,716 45,812 27,575 73,387 Maximise release of non-tillable land 3,443 4,909 8,352 2,909 486 3,395 11,747 45,867 27,572 73,439 Maximise release of tillable land 3,443 4,908 8,351 6,947 486 7,433 15,784 45,878 27,575 73,453 50% reduction in white meat consumption: Uniform 3,201 3,735 6,936 11,228 1,944 13,172 20,108 49,525 28,500 78,025 ∗ The greenhouse gas emissions do not include possible effects of land use change Summary table. The area of land needed to supply UK food and the greenhouse gas emissions from food production under current circumstances and under the seven scenarios studied. In a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining livestock production on different land types (e.g. concentrating on intensive production on lowland farmsversus extensive production on lower quality land) has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. This indicates that there is relatively little scope to reduce emissions by restructuring production (at least restructuring in relation to land use). It is further noted that concentrating livestock production onhigher quality land would cause an almost complete closure of production for UK markets on land not suited to intensive grass or arable production, with biodiversity and economic impacts (discussed further below). The risks of unintended consequences with respect to greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low given the assumptions in the scenarios, but the actuality of such change will depend on future economic,social and political drivers. The report includes Food, land and greenhouse gases Page 3 of 158 detailed analyses of land use and emissions data together with extensive discussion of a wide range of effects based on literature analysis. 2. Study objectives This study was conducted for the UK Government’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to examine if UK agriculture can support consumption change away from carbon-intensive food products. For the purposes of the consumption scenarios, it is assumed the relationships between imports, exports and domestic consumption remain constant for each of the commodities used by the UK food system. The following questions were addressed: 1. Land needs:Given land quality considerations (e.g. land capability and constraints), to what extent is it possible to support a change in the UK consumption of meat and dairy products with a corresponding increase in substitute goods from UK agricultural land? Can a reduction in meat and dairy product consumption release land for other purposes? To what use would this freed-up land be suitable (e.g. food production, biomass production, carbon sequestration, other ecosystem service provision, forestry, etc.)? 2. Greenhouse gas emissions:What are the implications of the transition in production for GHGs both in the UK and abroad (including soil carbon releases, sequestration, reduced production of feed, etc, as well as reductions in direct N2O and CH4emissions? 3. Other effects: What are the other implications, including for water, other pollutants, farm incomes, availability of manure as a fertiliser input, public health, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and animal welfare? 4. International implications:If UK agricultural land cannot support consumption changes, what are the international implications in terms of agricultural production and land-use displacement (e.g. deforestation, land for biofuels, land for food), and GHGs? 3. Methods We developed and used a combination of consumption and production scenarios to examine potential consequences of change. Life-cycle assessment (mainly life cycle inventory analysis) was applied to these scenarios to examine the overall effects of the consumption change on GHG and other emissions from primary production, in the UK and overseas. The production under the various scenarios was allocated to agricultural land resources by a combination of survey-based data analysis and model-derived calculations. Land use change (LUC) emissions (from changing soil Cand biomass stocks) were calculated from data in the UK national inventory as well as from the UK Renewable Fuel Agency for overseas land types. Commodity flows as affected by consumption were calculated from FAOSTAT and Defra data. The resulting emissions were allocated to the various inventories in which they are registered, e.g. theUK’s GHG inventories for agriculture, LUC, energy use and industry, together with those from overseas that are made up by components from our UK consumption of foodand drink. Scientific literature relevant to the wider assessment of these scenarios was analysed (and an ecosystems services method was applied) to enable a qualitativeassessment to complement the quantitative analysis. Scenarios We designed a range of consumption and production scenarios to examine options on both the demand and supply sides. These comprise three consumption and three production scenarios. The consumption scenarios are as follows: Consumption Scenario 1. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. Consumption Scenario 2. A shift from red meat (beefand lamb) to white meat (pork and poultry). Red meat consumption is reduced by 75%. Consumption Scenario 3. A 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. It must be stressed that the nature of scenarios is suchthat they contain a variety of assumptions about possible future demands and supplies of agricultural commodities. The scenarios are not forecasts. The Food, land and greenhouse gases Page 4 of 158 focus has been on the technical capacity of land and agricultural production, not on the market changes needed to enable change. It should be noted that the balance of supply from the UK and overseas is assumed to remain as it is now. The 50% reduction in livestock products was not applieduniformly across these commodities. Under the reduction scenario (Consumption scenario 1), consumption of milk and eggs is 60% of current consumption, and meat consumption is 36% of current consumption. Sugar consumption is also reduced to align with healthy eating guidelines. Reduction in consumption of livestock products is balanced by increasing plant consumption on the basis of constant food energy supplied. Fruit and vegetable consumption was increased by 50% and basic carbohydrate (e.g. cereals, potatoes) and oil rich commodities (except palm oil) by 33%. Substitution was estimated on the basis of food energy use at the commodity level using FAOSTAT data. Expert opinion was obtained in relation to the viability of consumption change under Scenario 1. This indicated that diets at the consumer level under thisscenario are viable from a nutritional viewpoint. It was also noted that Consumption Scenario 1 aligns with healthy eating guidelines in other countries. The production scenarios are focused on the intensity of use of different types of land. The result is a difference in the quantity and type of land ‘released’ from prod uction from change that reduces land needs. The production scenarios are: Production Scenario 1. Uniform land release - ‘pro-rata’ changes in land requirements across land types. Production Scenario 2. Maximise release of tillable land - ruminant meat production concentrated on lower quality land. Production Scenario 3. Maximise release of low quality land - ruminant meat production concentrated on high quality land. The combination of consumption scenarios 1 and 2 and three production scenarios gives a total of 6 system scenarios. These are complemented by Consumption Scenario 3 giving a total of 7. 4. Results Land needs All consumption change scenarios reduce the total amount of land estimated as required to support the UK food system. A switch from red to white meat increases the need for overseas arable land, although a larger area of UK land that can be tilled is released. Under a reduction scenario, the amount of extra land required for the direct consumption of plant productsis less than the amount of arable land released from livestock feed production. The net effect on total overseas arable land needs is a reduction of about 311,000 haand a net release of about 265,000 ha arable land in the UK. The need for grassland is greatly reduced. The release of grassland with some arable potential ranges between 1.6 to 3.7 million ha depending on where remaining production is concentrated. The release of grassland with no arable potential ranges from 0.7 to 6.9 million ha. Under a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining production on better quality land would almost entirely eliminate sheep and beef production for the UK from the hills, most uplands and less productive lowland areas. Under Consumption Scenario 2 (a shift from beef and sheepmeat to white meat from pigs and poultry), the diet needs of pigs and poultry result in a net increase in demand for overseas grown crops, although considerably more potentially arable land is released in the UK. More arable cropping is needed both in the UK (an additional 55,000 ha) and to a much greater extent overseas (about an additional 466,000 ha), driven largely by soy. However, the release of arable quality grassland in the UK exceeds the increase in overseas arable landed needed for producing this feed. The result is a net release of between 1.6 and 2.9 million ha potentially arable land in the UK plus the release of 1.3 to 6.6 million ha of land suitable only for grassland. Under Consumption Scenario 3 (a 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by an increase in plant products) the changes are much less complex with no changes in grassland needs. Increases in demand for arable land for direct human consumption amounted to about 154,000 and 172,000 ha (domestic and overseas respectively), but these are more than compensated for by the release of arable land from feed production (341,000 and 668,000 ha domestic and overseas respectively). Focusing a reduced cattle and sheep industry on non-arable land would result in the release of substantially more tillable land (currently grassland). In a 50% livestock production consumption reduction scenario, maximising the use of lower grade land (semi-naturalgrassland, hill land etc.) releases 3.7 million of tillable Food, land and greenhouse gases Page 5 of 158 grassland (including 1.3 million ha of good arable land). The opposite approach of withdrawing production from less capable land releases just 1.7 million ha of potentially arable land, with almost no release of the grassland well suited for to arable production. The land-use trade-off is therefore clear. Under a 50% livestock consumption reduction scenario, 2 million ha of tillable grassland is required to compensate for the withdrawal of cattle and sheep production from 6.9 million ha of non-tillable grassland. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption opens up the opportunity to release about half of UK land currently used for UK food supplies if remaining production is concentrated on the more capable land. If land is released uniformly, almost two-thirds of this release takes place on grassland not suited to arable production and the remaining third is grassland with some arable potential. There would be with higher levels of land release in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than in England. Depending on where the remaining production takes place, a large proportion of land released may be very unproductive, but it can be assumed that about 5 million ha with potential for other agricultural uses would be available, for example for the production of livestock for export (if they didnot reduce their livestock consumption), for producing arable biofuel crops, planted woodland and re-wilding (to natural woodland in many cases). Greenhouse gas emissions All consumption scenarios reduce greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. The largest reduction is from a livestock reduction scenario (Consumption Scenario 1): from 81 to 66 Mt CO 2e (19% reduction). The switch from red to white meat reduces emissions by 9% and a 50% reduction in white meat consumption by only 3%. The net effect on emissions depends greatly on the alternative use of the grassland released from food production. The study indicates the range of possibleconsequences on soil and biomass fluxes. If all tillable grassland released from food production was converted to arable use, 8 to 17 Mt CO2e per year would be released over 20 years through the effects of land use change. Converting all released land with the potential to support good tree growth to woodland would cause a net carbon uptake equivalent to about 7.5 to 9.5 Mt CO 2e per year in soil and wood per year over 20 years. Land use preference (e.g. focusing remaining production on high quality land) has little effect on emissions. This is an important result indicating that supply chain emissions are unresponsive to changes in industry structure with respect to the land used. The location of emissions reductions (UK or overseas) was identified. Currently, we estimate that 36% of primary production emissions are overseas. All scenarios reduce UK emissions while Consumption Scenario 1 has little effect on overseas emissions andConsumption Scenario 2 reduces overseas emissions by 5%. None of the scenarios involve a net export of emissions and the GHG reduction benefits in the UK are proportionally greater than those overseas becauseof the tight link between UK livestock consumption and production. OTHER EFFECTS Other emissions All consumption scenarios are expected to reduce other emissions. Consumption Scenario 1 halves ammonia emissions. Reductions in nitrate emissions,eutrophication emissions generally, and acidification are almost as large (ca45%). Biodiversity and carbon sequestration It is widely asserted that grassland, especially semi-natural grassland, has a higher biodiversity value compared with other types of vegetation, natural climax vegetation for example. It is often claimed thatthe retention of these grasslands is important for the continued delivery of some ecosystem services, for example, carbon sequestration. In many other European countries, the uplands and hills are usually wooded. For example, 32% and 29% of the land area in Germany and France respectively are wooded compared with 12% in the UK. Thus conversion to climax woodland or other forms of forestry is one obvious alternative use for released grassland. Our study has identified benefits for carbon sequestration in soil when grassland is converted to woodland (there shouldalso be potential benefits in the use of harvested wood). Our analysis of land use statistics reveals the largeproportion of UK land currently occupied by cattle and sheep. Without these livestock, this grassland (much of which is semi-natural grassland) would revert to the natural vegetation - deciduous woodland in many cases.Our results show that the use of livestock to retain Food, land and greenhouse gases Page 6 of 158 semi-natural grasslands is not dependent on the current high level of livestock product consumption. A 50% reduction in demand still leaves a market which is large enough to support this activity. However, given how a declining market affects all suppliers, a livestock reduction scenario presents special challenges to the maintenance of semi-natural grasslands. Livestock systems provide a wide range of services that are currently used by society. In a reduction scenario, ruralareas lose skills and employment in the livestock sector and there would be ramifications for linked industries such as the meat processing or veterinary sectors. Culturally important features, for example, hedgerows and stone walls, and much of the fauna and flora associated with grassland would be no longer needed. In the UK as a whole, land that is most likely to be taken out of production is associated with difficult production conditions. In England, upland moorland and common land now in a semi-natural state could change to fully natural vegetation cover. In upland areas, where the majority of re-wilding under Consumption Scenario 1 and 2 would be located, evidence suggests that various natural communities including scrub, bracken, bramble, and woodland with their own assemblage of flora and fauna are likely to develop, with potential increases in wild herbivores such as deer, hares, and rabbits. The majority of SSSIs currently under-grazed occur in lowland areas, for example in southern and eastern parts of England, and a lack oflivestock results in difficulty in applying the grazing pressure required to maintain the semi-natural faunal and floral diversity. Recreational access to the uplands, which is now facilitated by open grassland landscapes, may be impaired and evidence suggests that visitors view the loss of traditional semi-natural landscapes, with associated meadows, hedges, and stone walls, negatively. Whilst a reduction in the current ecosystem service provision associated with livestock production from cattle and sheep can be expected under Consumption Scenarios 1and 2, the net change is also dependent on the alternative use to which land is put. In upland SSSIs, overgrazing is often problematic and reducing grazing pressure may allow semi-natural habitats to recover, in particular dwarf shrub heaths, bogs, acid grassland and upland habitats. The release of large areas ofland could also be used to diversify upland areas. For example, semi-natural upland woodlands have declined by 30-40% since the 1950s and the UK Habitat Action Plan has therefore included a target to increase the area of upland oak woodland through planting or natural regeneration of current open ground. In the lowlands, approximately 10% of the current arable land could be released for other activities, suchas bioenergy crops, woodlands, recreational land, wetlandcreation, nature reserves, flood protection, carbon sequestration, and urban development. Each of theseland uses will have its own specific range and flow of ecosystem services associated with it. While in general, the release of agricultural land with high environmental value from food production is not viewed as positive, Defra has concluded that there are likely to be situations where positive outcomes can occur. Economic considerations The reduction in the amount of land needed to supply the UK goes hand-in-hand with a reduction in the value added by agriculture supplying UK consumed food. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption (Consumption Scenario 1) reduces the UK farm-gate value of livestock products from £7.6 to 3.5 billion. The farm-level economic impact of a change along these lines will depend crucially on what replacement output is found for the land released and on market effectsthat are beyond the scope of this study. One economic response scenario is that the land resource released remains in agriculture serving export markets. Another strategy is to use the land for non-food purposes. Using biomass energy cropping as a benchmark and assuming a price of £40/tonne dry matter biomass wood,we estimate that replacing the value of the food output of higher quality land released will be challenging, although it is reported that biomass energy is an economically viable alternative to sheep production onuplands. 1 POTENTIAL UNEXPECTED OR UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Changes to UK crop production The general conclusion that a reduction in livestock production consumption will have little effect in total arable land requirements masks some important regional effects. This scenario will reduce arable crop production for livestock feed and increase arable production for direct human consumption, including a 50% increase in fruit and vegetables. The increase of 0.6 million ha of UK crops for human consumption includes an increase of about 0.2 million ha in potatoes, field vegetables and fruit. Research indicates that agricultural change driven by healthy eating recommendations will result in expansion of production of these 1 Heaton, R.J., Randerson, P.F., Slater, F.M. 1999. The economics of growing short rotation coppice in the uplands of mid-Wales and an economic comparison with sheep production. Biomass and Bioenergy 17: 59-71. Food, land and greenhouse gases Page 7 of 158 crops particularly in the south and east of England. 2 Many of these crops are irrigated and some are protected using for example poly-tunnels. Whilst thechange in land use is small in absolute terms, thelocal effects on water resources and landscape could be significant. It should be noted however that the increase in fresh fruit and vegetable consumption in these scenarios arise from the full implementation of currentUK healthy eating guidelines (‘five-a-day’) and are not just a consequence reduced livestock product consumption. Potential unexpected or unintended consequences Uneven distribution of economic effects The effect of a contraction in the value of farm output for UK markets will be unevenly distributed. There will be many losers, but also some winners. Given regional land quality characteristics, almost all Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish farmers would be affected by output contraction counterbalanced by output growth in the south and east of England. Effects on overseas land use The reduction in livestock product consumption will have little effect overall on net overseas land needs. Release of land in South America and the USA used for animal feed, especially soy, will be counterbalanced by increases in a wide range of crops elsewhere. The consumption changes also reduce the need for overseas grassland. This affects three countriesin particular: Ireland (dairy products, beef), New Zealand (butter and lamb), and South America (beef). The effect on Brazil is now small as imports have dwindled in recent years but the change would close off the UK as agrowth market for Brazilian beef in the longer term. The effects on Ireland are particularly significant. 5. Conclusion This study has clearly shown that UK land can support consumption change that reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the food system. The reduction in land needed to supply the UK that comes with a reduction in livestock product consumption brings potential environmental benefits and significant opportunities to deliver other products, including other ecosystem services, from UK agricultural land. The study has shown that some risks currently argued as arising from consumption change are small. In particular the study shows that arable land needs will not increase if the consumption of livestock products is decreased. The risk that emissions will be exported is also shown to be small. The identification of the significant potential benefits of consumption change combined with the low risks of unintended consequences has far-reaching implications for guidance to consumers and the development of agricultural policy. The results are broadly applicable to other European countries which means they are relevant to international policy development, for example the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.
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