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International Journal of Sport Policy
and Politics
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Scrutinizing the sport pyramid
metaphor: an examination of the
relationship between elite success and
mass participation in Flanders
Veerle De Bosscher a b , Popi Sotiriadou c & Maarten van
Bottenburg b
a Department of Sport Policy and Management , Vrije Universiteit
Brussel , Brussels , Belgium
b Utrecht University School of Governance , Utrecht , The
Netherlands
c Department of Tourism, Leisure, Hotel and Sport Management ,
Griffith University , Griffith , Australia
Published online: 14 Jun 2013.
To cite this article: Veerle De Bosscher , Popi Sotiriadou & Maarten van Bottenburg (2013)
Scrutinizing the sport pyramid metaphor: an examination of the relationship between elite success
and mass participation in Flanders, International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics, 5:3, 319-339,
DOI: 10.1080/19406940.2013.806340
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19406940.2013.806340
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Scrutinizing the sport pyramid metaphor: an examination of the
relationship between elite success and mass participation in Flanders
Veerle De Bosscher
a,b
*, Popi Sotiriadou
c
and Maarten van Bottenburg
b
a
Department of Sport Policy and Management, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium;
b
Utrecht
University School of Governance, Utrecht, The Netherlands;
c
Department of Tourism, Leisure, Hotel
and Sport Management, Griffith University, Griffith, Australia
Many governments use the trickle-down or demonstration effect to justify their high
investments in an elite sport. The assumption is that elite success increases mass
participation. Evidence of a relationship between elite success and mass participation is
fragmented, and previous studies have mostly failed to demonstrate a connection.
Nevertheless, many authors assert the need for more research on this relationship. This
study examines the effect of elite sport on mass participation. The study uses Pearson’s
correlations to analyse the relationship between membership data and athlete success
(using the elite sport index) in Flanders over the past 15 years. The membership figures
from Flanders were compared with figures from the Netherlands to identify the common
trends. Analysis across 20 sports revealed no consistent relationship between member-
ship levels and success. Positive correlations were notable in Flanders in four of the eight
sports in which elite Flemish competitors achieved significant international successes
during the study period (athletics, gymnastics, judo and tennis). The analysis suggests
that a trickle-down effect is not likely to occur automatically but might be found under
specific conditions. This leads us to call for new studies that bypass the question of
whether there is such a relationship and concentrate on why, how and when this relation-
ship occurs.
Keywords: sport pyramid; elite sport; mass participation; demonstration effect; trickle-
down
Introduction
Governments tend to justify large investments in the elite sport using the argument that the
elite athlete success and hosting international sporting events generate numerous positive
outcomes. These benefits include improved national identity, pride, international prestige
and diplomatic recognition, individual development of talented athletes and the capacity to
inspire increased mass participation in sport (Houlihan and Green 2008, van Bottenburg
et al. 2011, De Croock et al. 2012). However, there is inadequate evidence to support these
claims that are described as storylines by Fischer (2003 cited in Houlihan et al. 2009, p. 5):
Sport, as is clear from even a cursory review of the contemporary policy, is replete with deeply
entrenched ‘storylines’, that elite success has a powerful demonstration effect on the mass of the
public . . . storylines are not necessarily false, but their persistence and impact is not related to the
quality or quantity of evidence available.
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics, 2013
Vol. 5, No. 3, 319–339, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19406940.2013.806340
*Corresponding author. Email: Veerle.de.bosscher@vub.ac.be
#2013 Taylor & Francis
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Because such outcomes of elite sport are assumed to be self-evident, no further evidence
appears to be required for governments to justify their significant investments in the pursuit
of medal winning capability (Grix and Carmichael 2012). According to Green (2004) ‘sport
is understood as an intrinsically “good”thing . . . and elite sport policy is framed in a positive,
discursive nature allowing few possibilities for thinking otherwise’(p. 367). These policy
concerns have led to an increased discussion on the legacy of elite sport investments within
the sport policy literature (e.g. Girginov and Hills 2008, Houlihan et al. 2009, Houlihan and
Green 2011, Department for Culture, Media and Sport 2012, Grix and Carmichael 2012,
Leopkey and Parent 2012).
The question of why nations should care about winning medals, and therefore why they
should invest in elite sport, remains unanswered, and the elevated status of elite sport
remains uncritically accepted (Coalter 2007). The unproven relationship between elite
success and mass participation leads increasingly to tensions between opposing the political
priorities of investing in an elite sport for a small group of athletes, and developing a wide
range of organizations and facilities for the mass participation users (van Bottenburg 2003,
Houlihan and Green 2008). The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the
elite sport and mass participation in Flanders, the Dutch-speaking region of Belgium. In
particular, this paper investigates one facet of the trickle-down effect by analysing the
statistical relationship between international sporting success and membership figures in
20 sports. Accordingly, the research question is: ‘What is the association between the
international sporting success and mass participation membership figures?’Related ques-
tions, concerned with understanding how, why and under what circumstances there is a
relationship, lie beyond the scope of this paper.
The sport pyramid metaphor
The relationship between the elite sport and mass participation is often referred to by using
the sport pyramid analogy but the literature justifying its use remains fragmented and
anecdotal (van Bottenburg 2003, Green 2005, Sotiriadou and Shilbury 2009).
Traditionally, the elite and mass participation sports have been seen as interrelated and
mutually dependent. In many sports, a large base of mass participation numbers is believed
to provide a positive breeding ground for elite sport. In turn, elite sport is regarded as
attracting young children to sports because of the inspiration provided by the elite athletes
and the attention given to international sporting success. This is the origin of the often used
but rarely questioned sport-pyramid metaphor (Heinilä 1982, Renson 2002, van Bottenburg
2003, Green 2005, Sotiriadou et al. 2008, Grix and Carmichael 2012). This pyramid
metaphor has been criticized because many people practise a sport without any desire to
ascend to a higher level (Eichberg et al. 1998). In addition, the elite sport cannot be regarded
as a simple extension of mass participation because it is possible to build high-level
competition systems without relying on a broad participation base (van Bottenburg 2003,
Green 2005, De Bosscher and van Bottenburg 2011). Furthermore, athletes are obliged, at
increasingly younger ages, to choose between a development in a mass participation
structure and an elite sport approach (Eichberg et al. 1998). Elite and mass participation
sports continue to grow apart, and the connection between them is being placed under an
increasing strain. This divergence puts pressure on public policies that use this pyramid
metaphor to legitimize their investments in either one of these areas (De Bosscher et al.
2008b).
320 V. De Bosscher et al.
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The search for evidence: the trickle-down effect
The argument that elite athletes have the power to inspire young people rests on the assumed
existence of the demonstration effect (Weed 2009), sometimes called the trickle-down effect
(Hogan and Norton 2000, Sotiriadou et al. 2008), or the Boris Becker effect (van Bottenburg
2001). The demonstration effect is defined by Weed (2009) as ‘a process by which people are
inspired by elite sport, sports people or sports events to participate themselves’(p. 4). This
definition indicates that the inspiration of elite sport can be due to:
(a) The inspirational function of elite performances;
(b) The inspirational function of elite athletes (sport stars as personalities); and
(c) The inspirational function and legacy of elite events.
These independent factors may affect mass participation (the dependent factor). The broad
effects of the independent factors can be further examined in relation to four areas:
(a) The effects on participation in sport. These effects can be examined at the following
four stages of involvement: the attraction (or recruitment of new participants); the
retention (or the motivation and engagement to continue with the sport); the
advancement to higher levels of competition; and the nurturing stage, associated
with increased commitment and a move to the elite level (see Green 2005, Sotiriadou
et al. 2008 for more details
1
);
(b) The effects on the choice of sport;
(c) The effects on behaviour within the sport (e.g. the choice of a certain position in a
team; the inspiration to copy techniques, tactics or possibly malpractices); and
(d) The effects on behaviour outside the sport (e.g. clothing, hairstyle, music prefer-
ences, general values on issues such as drugs, gender and racism).
Following this division, Appendix provides an overview of a number of these studies. It
shows research is often limited to the so-called ‘grey’literature (e.g. conference papers, in-
house papers) (Grix and Carmichael 2012). The examination of the relationship between the
elite and mass participation is not straightforward as the trickle-down effect is difficult to
isolate in empirical studies. For example, changes in participation can be explained by other
short-term determinants, such as changes in the availability of sport infrastructure and living
in an activity-friendly neighbourhood (Wicker et al. 2012), the effect of peers, the status of a
sport in a school, activities organized by sport organizations to attract young people or even
increases in income or the Gross Domestic Product. Because of the complicated nature of
these influences, the available research has not succeeded in finding a clear evidence that
elite success has a trickle-down effect on the mass participation. The next section will
discuss the evidence for the impacts of the three independent factors.
The inspirational function of elite performances
Most studies that explore the relationship between elite athletes’performances and mass
participation belong to the grey literature in the policy and management fields (see
Appendix). Most of these studies use correlation or regression analyses to explore the
relationship between the membership figures and elite success, mostly within one sport.
These studies provide mixed results. For example, various researchers identify counter-
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 321
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effects in some sports. These are sports that have been successful over time or have had
outstanding athletes but mass participation rates have decreased (e.g. Stokvis and Minnee
1986, van Bottenburg 2003, Steward and Nicholson 2004, Green 2005, Feddersen et al.
2009). This was, for instance, the case with tennis in Germany following Boris Becker’s and
Steffi Graff’s period of success, and with volleyball in the Netherlands following a gold
medal win in the Atlanta 1996 Olympic Games. Steward and Nicholson (2004) did not find
any significant positive correlation between elite success and participation numbers in six
sports in Australia over a 14-year period.
Other studies have found positive relationships between performances and participation
numbers. For example, Hanstad and Skille (2010) found positive correlations between the
mass participation (measured as the number of registered athletes) and Olympic Games/
world championship medals (r¼0.597; p<0.05) and top 15 places (r¼0.690; p<0.05) in
cross-country skiing and shooting in Norway. A study by De Bosscher and De Knop (2003)
reveals that success in tennis in 43 European nations was highly correlated with the number
of registered tennis players (r¼0.724; p<0.001) and the number of tennis courts (r¼
0.858; p<0.001). Finally, van Bottenburg (2002, 2003) found a significant correlation
between the percentage of the population participating only in an organized sports and the
number of medals per million inhabitants in the 20 European nations (r¼0.535; p<0.01).
Interestingly, this correlation increased when the intensity and competitiveness increased.
When considered collectively, the above studies suggest that there is no clear evidence of
that there is an effect, or that there is not. The results suggest and that if a relationship does
exist, it may be sport-, country- and context-specific. Weed (2009), in his study with 1509
rugby and cricket participants in New Zealand, concludes that the demonstration effect as a
consequence of elite success does not have a significant impact on those who have rarely or
never participated and are therefore not already emotionally engaged with the sport. Weed
found that the demonstration effect did, however, impact those already engaged with a sport
in three ways: it encouraged a re-engagement of lapsed participants, it brought about an
increase in participation frequency among current participants and among current partici-
pants it increased the likelihood of individuals switching between activities. Furthermore,
the demonstration effect can be influenced by other variables, such as media coverage,
funding, programmes for mass participation and other influences (van Bottenburg 2003,
Feddersen et al. 2009). Consequently, the nature of the relationship is complicated and these
factors are difficult to analyse. Questions about the mechanisms that affect mass participa-
tion therefore remain unanswered.
The inspirational function of elite athletes (sport stars as personalities)
One of the best-known explanations for rises in the popularity of particular sports is that a
participation is boosted in response to wins by champions who capture the public’s imagina-
tion (van Bottenburg 2001). This research area relates to the effects of role models. The
literature in this area is far more developed and originates primarily from sport psychology
research, either in the context of individuals of outstanding achievement (e.g. Lockwood and
Kunda 1997) or in the context of people who have qualities we would like to possess
(e.g. Guiliano et al. 2007). This literature offers insights into what role models the young
people choose, why they choose them, whether these role models influence young people’s
behaviour and if so, how. Accordingly, parents, siblings, teachers, coaches, pop stars and
sporting heroes have been studied as role models in several contexts: social learning theories
(e.g. Bandura 1977, Jung 1986, Lockwood and Kunda 1997), behavioural studies in and
322 V. De Bosscher et al.
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outside the sport (e.g. Biskup and Pfister 1999, Carr and Weigand 2001, Vescio et al. 2005,
Guiliano et al. 2007, Lines 2011), sociology (Fleming et al. 2005, Buford May 2009),
pedagogy (Bromnick and Swallow 1999) and education (e.g. Nauta and Kokaly 2001).
An interesting finding from Lockwood and Kunda (1997) is that superstars as role
models provoke inspiration and self-enhancement when their success seems attainable to
the observer, but provoke self-deflation when it seems unattainable. Furthermore, several
authors have found that boys are more likely to choose a sportsperson as a role model than
girls (e.g. Ewens and Lashuk 1989, Biskup and Pfister 1999, Bromnick and Swallow 1999,
Jones and Schumann 2000, Guiliano et al. 2007, Lines 2011). Some authors also stress the
possible negative effects of heroes as role models (e.g. Hindson et al. 1994, Globus 1998,
Payne et al. 2003, Lines 2011) and how media coverage communicates and amplifies the
impact of role models for young people (e.g. French and Pena 1991, Biskup and Pfister
1999, Fleming et al. 2005, Lines 2011).
While this generic literature provides insights on the effects of role models under various
conditions, remarkably little research has examined the effect of elite athletes as role models
on the sports participation or sports development (see Appendix for an overview of studies).
The inspirational function and legacy of elite events
The concept of sustainable mega event effects is a contested one (Girginov and Hills 2008).
It has received increasing attention over the past decade, mainly with regard to the sustain-
ability of the Olympic Games and the growing discourse that reflects Olympic Games
legacies (Girginov and Hills 2009, Bloyce and Lovett 2012, Bloyce and Smith 2012,
Leopkey and Parent 2012, Veal et al. 2012). One of the most important changes in the
governance of event legacy has been a shift from ex post (after the event, reactive) to ex ante
(before the event, proactive) strategic planning (Bloyce and Lovett 2012, Veal et al. 2012).
Legacy has become a taken-for-granted norm that has impacted how organizations plan and
implement the Olympic Games (Leopkey and Parent 2012). The International Olympic
Committee (IOC) developed the Olympic Games Impact (OGI) project, which requires host
cities to undertake a comprehensive longitudinal study designed to measure the economic,
social and environmental impacts of each Olympic Games through a set of indicators over a
period of 12 years and four reports. However, these indicators monitor only broad quanti-
tative developments in the general participation and school sports (Girginov and Hills 2008).
The effects are difficult to assess due to their complexity, and there is not a reliable, widely
accepted method for doing so despite the potentially testable benefits of hosting a mega
event (London East Research Institute 2007, Veal et al. 2012).
Most of the evidence in the literature questions whether major sporting events will
inevitably have a positive impact on levels of mass participation (Coalter 2007, EdComs
2007, Girginov and Hills 2008, Veal et al. 2012). Only a few studies show positive effects,
and these are predominantly on short-term (see Appendix). For example, Hanstad and Skille
(2010) report there was a short-term effect after the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games and the
Lillehammer 1994 Winter Olympics. Also, Frawley and Cush (2011) and Veal et al. (2012)
find there was an accelerated growth of the number of rugby players in Australia two years
after the World Cup of 2003.
Overall, it can be concluded that there is still a limited evidence of the trickle-down
effects of elite success, elite athletes and elite events and that it is especially difficult to claim
cause and effect. Existing studies illustrate the complexity of the possible effects or non-
effects. The current paper focuses on the inspirational function of elite performances, and in
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 323
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particular it examines the relationship between membership figures and success. The paper
adds to the existing knowledge by comparing different sports within one region (Flanders,
the northern, Dutch-speaking part of Belgium), while attempting to determine whether
changes in participation rates are the result of an international trend (using data from the
Netherlands).
Methods
Data collection
Registered membership figures from the governing bodies of 20 sports were used as a
measure of the mass participation rates. These figures were used because reliable non-
registered sports participation data are not available on a sport-by-sport and a year-by-year
basis and because most elite athletes ‘find their roots’in sport through registered sports clubs
(van Bottenburg 2003). According to van Bottenburg et al. (2005), the advantage of using
membership data from sport organizations is that this ‘provides insight into the differences
between the various branches of sport and it identifies long-term trends’(p. 27). Data on
registered membership figures were sought from Bloso, the Flemish sports administration
agency, and from national governing bodies when data were missing from the Bloso
database. Data over a period of approximately 15 years (starting in 1992), or for the longest
period for which data were available, were collected in all 20 Olympic sports that are
recognized as elite sports in Flanders and are therefore funded.
To measure longitudinal elite athlete performances (also since 1992) in each of the 20
sports, the research team developed an elite sport index (ESI). This index calculates
weighted points for each top eight place for athletes performing at European championships
(EC), world championships (WC) and Olympic Games (OG) and some other events for
certain sports (e.g. grand slams were used in tennis). Ten points are awarded for a gold
medal, 8 for silver, 6 for bronze, 5 for fourth place, 4 for fifth, and so on down to 1 point for
eighth.
2
The researchers gave these events weights of 2 (EC), 4 (WC) and 6 (OG) (De
Bosscher et al. 2008a). For example, an athlete winning a gold medal at an EC in swimming
would be given 16 points (eight points for a gold medal multiplied by a weighting of two). In
this way, a total value for each sport is calculated each year. As not all events take place
annually, the points of an event in year X are transferred to the next year until a new event of
the same kind takes place. As a result, scores for ECs and WCs change every two years and
scores for OGs every four years. This is similar to methods used in the UK world-sporting
index, the national sporting index developed by Sport Canada and the ESI developed by the
Dutch National Olympic Committee* National Sports Federation (NOC*NSF) (De
Bosscher et al. 2008a).
Data analysis
Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated for each sport to measure the relationship
between membership and performances in the ESI for each year. It is assumed that if there
is an effect, it does not take place immediately but only in the longer term, and so the study
also examined whether success in year X correlated significantly with membership
numbers in years (X), (X+1),(X+2),(X+3),(X+5),(X+8)and(X+10).Thiswas
only possible when data were available for these years. A significance level of 0.05 was
used.
324 V. De Bosscher et al.
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The increase (or decrease) in mass participation was calculated as a percentage
change between 2010 and 1992 (or the earliest year where data were available). An
increase (or decrease) in mass participation can also be part of an international trend
and therefore not indicative of a relationship with international success in a particular
country or region (van Bottenburg 2001). If, for instance, Flemish and international
membership figures correlate highly, the growth in membership figures after an
increase in the success of Flemish athletes may be due to an international trend rather
than a local trickle-down effect. Therefore, the changes of membership in Flanders
were compared with those in a neighbouring country, the Netherlands. The data for the
Netherlands were obtained from the main Dutch sports administration body,
NOC*NSF. Using the Infostrada sports database, a comprehensive database of sports
statistics and information services, an ESI, similar to the one used in Flanders, was
developed in three sports that will be discussed in the results section.
Results
To give a general overview of the most successful sports in Flanders as a starting
point, Figure 1 shows the average ESI scores of the 20 recognized Olympic sports in
Flanders from 1992 (or the earliest reference year for which data is available) until
2010. As Figure 1 shows, there appears to be no or very limited success in badminton,
basketball, handball, fencing, football and volleyball. Therefore, a relationship between
the index and membership figures is less relevant in these sports, and so this study did
not analyse them in detail. On the other hand, success in judo exceeds the achieve-
mentsinmostothersports,followedbysuccessincycling,athletics,swimming,
equestrian events, tennis, rowing and sailing. If a trickle-down effect exists, these
are the sports where such an effect can be expected.
42
012010
119
8
35
22
0811
23
900
62
21
38
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Athletics
Badminton
Basketball
Gymnastics
Handball
Archery
Judo
Kayak–Canoe
Equestrian
Rowing
Fencing
Taekwondo
Table Tennis
Tennis
Triathlon
Football
Volleybal
Cycling
Sailing
Swimming
Points on the ESI
Avera
g
e score on the elite sport index since 1992, by sport Average across sports
Figure 1. An overview of the total points on the elite sport index (ESI) per sport in Flanders
since 1992.
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 325
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Correlations between membership figures and ESI scores in 20 sports in Flanders
Table 1 provides an overview of the correlation coefficients between success in year X and
membership figures in the years X+1,X+2....X+ 10 (trickle-down) for all 20 sports.
Of the 15 sports that have produced successful ESI scores (>0 points) in Flanders, there
are only four for which membership figures correlate positively with success (in year X):
athletics, gymnastics, judo and tennis. This correlation remains significant two years later
(X+ 2) in athletics and judo, three years later that Xin gymnastics and five years later than X
in tennis.
Interestingly, in swimming, kayaking and table tennis, the correlation between the
membership figures and ESI scores is significant but negative. These correlations decrease
after one year for swimming and and three years in kayaking. In table tennis, the correlations
fluctuate. In equestrian events, a significant relationship appears only after two years, and in
rowing the correlations fluctuate over time. In order to identify common trends in member-
ship figures, the next section compares membership changes over time in Flanders with
those in the Netherlands.
Correlations between membership figures in Flanders and the Netherlands (20 sports)
Table 2 presents an overview of the changes in the membership figures in Flanders and the
Netherlands and shows the correlation coefficients between the two of them for all 20 sports
in this study.
Generally, membership figures increased more in Flanders than in the Netherlands.
There are six sports where changes in the membership figures in Flanders and the
Netherlands are significantly positively correlated with each other. These are athletics,
kayaking, cycling, equestrian events, fencing and triathlon. Among these sports, in
Table 1. Correlation coefficients between success (ESI) in year X and membership in the years X+1,
X+2,X+3,X+5,X+8,X+ 10 in all the sports in Flanders (trickle-down).
XX+1 X+2 X+3 X+5 X+8 X+10
Athletics 0.840** 0.736** 0.697** 0.514 0.097 0.198 0.815*
Badminton no success
Basketball no success
Gymnastics 0.624* 0.467 0.658* 0.821** 0.540 ––
Handball no success
Archery 0.131 0.065 0.096 –0.311 –0.759 0.243 0.537
Judo 0.678** 0.600** 0.529* 0.452 0.386 –0.48 –0.619
Canoe–kayak –0.766** –0.777** –0.743** –0.527* –0.197 –0.512 –0.284
Equestrian –0.097 0.184 0.906** 0.921** 0.892** 0.121 –
Rowing –0.144 –0.642** –0.249 –0.005** –0.084 –0.091 –0.258
Fencing –0.070 0.482 –0.792* –0.410 0.033 0.325 –
Taekwondo –0.089 0.294 0.289 –0.108 –0.683** 0.048 0.623
Table tennis –0.626* –0.454 –0.235 –0.191 –0.681** –0.719* –0.519
Tennis 0.643** 0.738** 0.812** 0.863** 0.613* 0.187 –0.094
Triatlon –0.338 –0.080 0.231 0.256 0.186 –0.019 0.147
Football no success
Volleyball no success
Cycling –0.282 –0.164 0.092 0.297 0.445 0.654* 0.700*
Sailing 0.396 0.147 0.364 0.692* 0.305 –0.589 –
Swimming –0.598** –0.500* –0.382 –0.278 –0.136 –0.386 0.144
Note: *p < 0.05; **p<0.01.
326 V. De Bosscher et al.
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Flanders, it is only in athletics that membership figures correlate significantly and positively
with the ESI scores. Nevertheless, this does not automatically mean that the athletics
membership increase in Flanders is part of an international trend, because the Netherlands
has also been relatively successful in the elite athletics between 2004 and 2006.
Interestingly, membership figures in Flanders and the Netherlands are significantly
negatively correlated in seven sports. These sports are badminton, handball, gymnastics,
swimming, table tennis, tennis and volleyball. In all these sports, the Flemish situation
is marked by a significant increase in membership while membership figures have
stabilized or decreased in the Netherlands. Notably, membership figures decreased in
gymnastics, swimming and volleyball in the Netherlands despite the Dutch successes in
these sports and despite the increases in membership in Flanders during the same
period. Gymnastics membership figures are striking, with a 140% increase in Flanders
compared to a 15% decrease in the Netherlands, despite significant Dutch successes
since 2001. No or limited successes were shown in the two countries in handball and
badminton, although membership patterns differed. What should be noted is that
membership numbers are generally higher in the Netherlands, that has a population
2.6 times higher than Flanders. This is relevant because it is easier to double a small
number of members than a large number. Despite there being nine times more handball
players in the Netherlands, the country has so far been unable to produce notable
international success.
Table 2. Change in membership figures in Flanders and the Netherlands compared to the earliest
reference year and the Pearson correlation between both countries.
a
FLA NED Correlation r
Sport (data available
since . . .)
Change in membership figures since the first
point in time Between FLA and NED
Archery (1996) –7.2% (status quo) +26% –0.065
Athletics (1993) +100% +74% 0.949**
Badminton (1996) +56% –34% –0.851**
Basketball (2001)
b
–4% –11% 0.065
Cycling (1995) +166 +25% 0.710**
Equestrian (2002)
b
+268% +50% 0.979**
Fencing (since 2002)
b
+73% +34% 0.718*
Football (1999) –6.2% (fluctuating) +15% –0.298
Gymnastics (1996) +140% –15% –0.895**
Handball (1992) +12% –35% –0.950**
Judo (1992) –19% +7.6% (fluctuating) 0.044
Canoe–kayak (1996) –5% –26% 0.724**
Rowing (1996) +5.0% (status quo) +26% 0.208
Taekwondo (1996) +0.4% (status quo) –5.0% (status quo) 0.028
Table tennis (1992) +20.6% –20.8% –0.923**
Tennis (1992) +45% +0.4% –0.593**
Triatlon (1995) +115% +24% (fluctuating) 0.571*
Volleyball (1992) +15% –21% –0.785**
Sailing
b
(2002) –1% (status quo) –7% 0.416
Swimming (1992) +48% –13% –0.937**
Average +51% +4.7%
Notes:
a
As membership figures may fluctuate we present the data as a general trend (which could mean that there can
be an exceptional year in the dataset).
b
There is only a limited data set in these sports.
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 327
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The correlations described above do not enable us to draw any conclusions because
they do not provide information about the direction of the correlation or how success
and membership changed over time. There is no indication, for example, whether
significant correlations are associated with increases or decreases in membership and
success figures. To illustrate this point, the evolution of the membership and success
figures will be presented graphically in the next section. For the purpose of this paper,
three sports with significant correlations were selected. One of them has a significant
positive correlation because of increased membership and success figures over time
(athletics); one has a significant negative correlation because of increased membership
figures and decreased success (swimming) and one has a significant positive correlation
because of decreases in both the membership and success figures (judo). These three
sports will be compared with the Netherlands to identify possible common trends in
membership change and changes in success. Finally, a sport with decreased membership
figures and increased success was not available in Flanders but was in the Netherlands
(swimming).
An analysis of membership figures and ESI scores in three top-performing sports
Athletics
Figure 2 and Table 1 show that both membership figures and scores on the ESI increased
over time in Flanders. Successful ESI scores correlate significantly with the membership
figures (r¼0.840, p<0.01) until two years later (X+ 2, see Table 1). Athletics is one of
the sports where Flanders has been most successful since 2001, including a high-jump
gold medal from Tia Hellebaut and a silver medal in the 4 100 relay
3
at the Beijing
2008 Olympics. It should be noted that the athletes concerned received much media
attention and were used for marketing purposes by several commercial enterprises.
Membership figures reached a peak in 2006 and scores on the ESI reached a peak in
2008 (Figure 2).
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Athletics elite sport index FLA
Athletics membership FLA
Athletics membership FLA Athletics elite s
p
orts index FLA
r = 0.840**
Figure 2. Membership figures and points on the elite sport index in ATHLETICS in Flanders.
328 V. De Bosscher et al.
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Membership figures in the Netherlands (Figure 3) show a continuous increase from 1993
to 2009 (by a total of 74%). These figures are highly correlated with the Flemish membership
figures (r¼0.949, p<0.01). It could, therefore, be assumed that increased membership
figures in athletics may be an international trend. However, the Netherlands also have some
successes in athletics, especially between 2004 and 2006, with a gold and silver medal at the
WC in Helsinki (2005) and at the EC in Gothenburg (2006) (Figure 3).
Judo
Judo is characterized by a decrease in total membership figures and in success figures since
1992 (Figure 4). Judo has been Flanders’most successful sport since 1992, with a peak in
1996–1997 after four medals in the 1996 Atlanta Olympics and four in the ECs that followed
(Figure 1). Until 2003, Flemish judo competitors consistently performed well. Meanwhile,
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Judo elite s
p
ort index
p
oints FLA
Judo membership FLA
Judo membership FLA Judo elite s
p
orts index FLA
r = 0.678**
Figure 4. Membership figures and points on the elite sport index in JUDO in Flanders.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Athletics elite s
p
ort index NED
Athletics membership NED
r = 0.371
Athletics membership NED Athletics elite s
p
orts index NED
Figure 3. Membership figures and points on the elite sport index in ATHLETICS in the Netherlands
since 1993.
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 329
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following the peak performances in 1996 and 1997, there has been no notable increase in the
membership figures except for the period 1999–2001. Overall membership decreased by
19% from 1992 to 2009. After 2003, the points on the ESI also decreased. In sum, success
in judo is positively correlated with membership figures over the past 15 years (r¼0.678,
p<0.01).
In the Netherlands, it was found that membership figures fluctuated (Figure 5). Analysis
of results from major international tournaments reveals that several Dutch athletes also won
medals at WCs and OGs with a peak in 2005, when Dutch athletes won five gold medals at
ECs and WCs. The correlation between the membership figures and success is not signifi-
cant. Furthermore, there is no significant correlation between the membership figures in the
Netherlands and in Flanders.
Swimming
The most successful year for Flemish swimming performances was 1996 with gold going to
Fred De Burghgraeve at the Atlanta Olympics. After this period, medal wins decreased
considerably, down to zero in 2007. Despite the lack of success, membership figures have
increased continuously since 1996 (Figure 6). The total increase of membership since 1992
is 48% (Table 2). The correlation between the success and membership figures is significant
but negative (r¼-0.598, p<0.01).
What is most interesting in swimming is that the membership figures in the Netherlands
have continuously decreased (total decrease 13%), as is shown in Figure 7, despite the
repeated successes of the Dutch athletes since 1996. This is confirmed by the negative
correlation (r¼-0.575, p<0.01). The correlation between the Flemish and Dutch member-
ship figures is -0.937 (p<0.01) (Table 2).
0
50
100
150
200
250
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Judo elite sport index ponits NED
Judo membership NED
Judo membershi
p
NED Judo elite sport index NED
r = 0.153
Figure 5. Membership figures and points on the elite sport index in JUDO in the Netherlands
since 1992.
330 V. De Bosscher et al.
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Discussion
This paper explored the relationship between the elite sport and mass participation. This was
achieved by examining the existing literature and analysing a particular aspect of the
relationship between the elite and mass participation sport: the statistical connection
between elite performances and mass participation (expressed as membership figures),
using Flanders as a case. This study represents a one-sided (statistical) contribution to the
literature and explores whether there is a relationship between the two variables. The study
does not provide answers to questions about why and how this relationship occurs or about
what mechanisms are associated with participation changes, nor does the study offer any
evidence about possible indirect influences such as media coverage, sponsorship, sport
facilities, strategies or programmes for mass participation.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Swimming elite sport index points NED
Swimming membership NED
Swimming membership NED Swimming elite sport index NED
r = –0.575*
Figure 7. Membership figures and points on the elite sport index in SWIMMING in the Netherlands
since 1992.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Elite s
p
ort index
p
oints FLA
Swimming membership FLA
Swimming membership FLA Swimming elite sport index points FLA
r = –0.598**
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 6. Membership figures and points on the elite sport index in SWIMMING in Flanders.
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 331
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The basic rationale of the study was if success correlates significantly with membership
figures, one can assume there is a trickle-down effect of success that leads to more registered
members. Accordingly, the study also assumes that if this relationship exists it may not take
place immediately –it could take place one, two, or even eight or ten years after this success.
The analysis of 20 sports in Flanders did not provide clear evidence to support the existence
of a trickle-down effect. The study showed that it is difficult to discern any general trends.
This is an interesting finding because it contradicts the many claims made in policy
documents and proves that the subject needs to be further explored before the trickle-
down effect can be accepted as true. This result is not unexpected given earlier contradictory
research findings in smaller-scale studies (e.g. van Bottenburg 2001, 2002, De Bosscher and
De Knop 2003, Elphinston 2004, Stewart and Nicholson 2004, Feddersen et al. 2009,
Hanstad and Skille 2010, De Bosscher and van Bottenburg 2011). Significant positive
correlations in Flanders were only found in four of the eight sports that have achieved
successful ESI scores over the past 15 years (i.e. athletics, gymnastics, judo and tennis). In
athletics, the significant correlation between the Flemish and Dutch membership figures
suggests that there was an international trend. However, Dutch competitors have also been
successful in some major athletics championships.
Athletics, gymnastics, judo and tennis are all highly internationalized sports, as indicated
by the number of countries at international competitions. They are among the top 10 most
popular organized sports in the world (van Bottenburg 2001). In the other four successful
Flemish sports (equestrian events, sailing, rowing and archery), no significant correlations
were found (note however that the data for equestrian events and sailing were limited). These
sports are characterized by less organized participation structures and worldwide they are
practised in an organized context by less than one million people per sport (van Bottenburg
2001). This finding lends weight to the hypothesis that ‘it is more likely that there will be a
relationship between mass participation and elite performance in a popular sport than in a
less popular sport’. On the other hand, three negative correlations were also striking, in
Flemish table tennis, swimming and kayaking, where memberships decreased despite
international successes. Also, in the Netherlands, the membership decreased in swimming
and gymnastics, despite major wins by the elite Dutch athletes in these sports. In conclusion,
these findings show that caution must be exercised about the sweeping statements that are
often made about the sport pyramid model.
However, some limitations in the Flemish data may have hindered our contribution to
resolving the original research question on the relationship between the elite sport and mass
participation. First, there was only a limited data set available in Flanders (for the past 15
years only). Second, as the analysis used membership figures to identify effects on sports
participation in an organized context only, effects on the broader sports participation
including non-registered memberships (e.g. outside of club systems, such as in schools
and universities, and through commercial providers) have not been identified. This may be
significant in some sports given the popularity of projects like start-to-run or start-to-swim in
Flanders. Therefore, the membership figures reflect participation mainly in a competitive
setting, and according to van Bottenburg et al. (2005), they offer a limited view of reality.
Third, Flanders’success in international sports is generally limited (De Bosscher et al. 2011),
which may reduce the chances of finding any significant relationships. Therefore, an
extension of the analysis is needed at an international level on a sport-by-sport basis. For
example, in their analysis of data from 43 countries, De Bosscher and De Knop (2003) found
that the number of tennis players and the number of courts correlated significantly with
national success at the international level for both males and females. The absence of more
studies of this kind is related to the lack of available comparable data, either across sports to
332 V. De Bosscher et al.
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identify specific clusters, or across countries to identify international trends. This paper
should therefore encourage international cooperation to enable a deeper scrutiny of this
subject. Finally, as the figures in the three sports discussed in this paper showed, a success
can fluctuate much from one year to the next.
In conclusion, the findings for Flanders remain fragmented and do not show clear
evidence of a relationship between the elite sport and mass participation. This is by itself
an interesting finding. It shows that a relationship is far from obvious, despite the general
assumptions made by policy makers and by the public that a demonstration effect exists. It
also shows that even if an effect is present, it may not manifest in an increase in the number of
registered sport members. Hence, this study offers an answer to the question if a relationship
can be found, in one region and for 20 sports. This represents a first step toward further and
deeper analysis.
There are several variables influencing a possible relationship between elite success and
mass participation. These variables need to be taken into account in order to understand how
and why elite success and mass participation are related.
First, media coverage of athletes and sport disciplines is inherently linked to this
relationship (e.g. van Bottenburg 2003, Fleming et al. 2005, Sotiriadou and Shilbury
2009, Hanstad and Skille 2010, Lines 2011). Sports with higher media coverage may be
more likely to be taken up by the community. This is a virtuous cycle because the out-
standing performances attract media attention. This was the case with tennis in Flanders
following the performances of Kim Clijsters at the beginning of the twenty-first century
(Schouteden and De Bosscher 2005). On the other hand, it could also be the case that sports
with high media ratings in Flanders like football and cycling do not need international
success to receive newspaper and television coverage.
Second, if elite achievements generate mass participation, this does not happen auto-
matically. Specific organizations, programmes, competitions and facilities are required (van
Bottenburg 2002, Sotiriadou et al. 2008, Hanstad and Skille 2010) and as indicated by
Girginov and Hills (2008), Olympic legacies need to be constructed, as they do not happen
spontaneously. In this respect, the effects of elite success on participation may be influenced
by actions taken by national governing bodies to use role models in sport promotions, to
design and implement various programmes that aim to foster this effect and to offer
incentives to increase memberships or to increase sport facilities and access to sport venues.
The Flemish tennis federation is a typical example. The federation launched country-wide
projects in schools at a time when major successes in tennis were taking place, and it
increasingly professionalized its service delivery to tennis clubs (Goethals 2004).
Finally, there are many other elements that complicate the quest for more in-depth
insights into the relationship between a success and participation. For example, does elite
sport success inspire sports participation in the same sports, or does it inspire sport participa-
tion in general? Does the inspirational function of elite athlete success stay within a country
or does it have effects abroad? If a young sports person had not been inspired to participate
because of elite athlete success or by an elite athlete role model, would they have participated
in another sport? It is possible that the trickle-down effect does not influence non-sporting
people to take up a sport, but rather causes already active sportspersons to change sports, as
was found in Weed’s (2009) study of rugby and cricket. Similarly, a recent survey of elite
athletes in Flanders revealed that only 10% of the respondents (n¼112) indicated that
former elite athletes motivated them to take up their sport. However, 63% indicated that elite
athletes inspired them to train more intensively (De Croock et al. 2012). It could therefore be
useful to analyse trickle-down effects at different stages of the sport development process in
further research –for example at the athlete entrance, retention, transition and advancement/
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 333
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nurturing stages (Green 2005, Sotiriadou et al. 2008). Accordingly, further analysis of the
Flemish data used in this paper revealed that when taking only competition members into
account in swimming,
4
the correlation between ESI scores and mass participation increased
significantly from to –0.598 to +0.565 (p<0.05). This may also be related to the specific
character of swimming, where many young children take swimming courses (e.g. for safety
reasons) without any intention to continue the sport. Specific membership figures on youth
and competition members would enrich the data analysis.
While the evidence presented here is not adequate to assess the validity of the claims
made by policy makers that the elite sport and mass participation benefit one another, this
paper sheds further light on the complexity of this relationship. As indicated by some
authors, the key questions are not whether success, role models or events stimulate a
short-term participation, but whether engagement is maintained and whether elite athletes
have the power to boost the aspirations of those already involved, or to inspire talented
people to train more frequently (e.g. Green 2005, Sotiriadou and Shilbury 2009, Grix and
Carmichael 2012). Furthermore, there are many other determinants of a mass participation.
As stated by Houlihan and Green (2011), in reality common facilitators for physical activity
are not medals or elite athletes but enjoyment and social interaction. Therefore, the trickle-
down effect is not by itself sufficient to increase the participation.
This research confirms the many policy discourses around the trickle-down effect, and it
shows that what is taken-for-granted by policy makers cannot be verified by sound statistical
evidence on the membership figures. Prudence is therefore required in policy documents and
in the arguments used to underpin political decisions about how to spend the public money.
National sport organizations and policy institutions should be aware that a possible trickle-
down effect is not a self-evident phenomenon that automatically flows from success, elite
athletes or events. Even if a predisposition for the trickle-down effect does exist, it will only
become a reality if it is included in a strategic plan and promoted through active pro-
grammes. So far, researchers have not succeeded in finding convincing evidence of a
relationship between elite success and mass participation sport, or in developing a sound
research method to adequately measure the possible relationship between the two. In the
meantime, policy documents in many countries keep referring to the pyramid metaphor to
justify their spending on elite sport, often to the detriment of funding to support the mass
participation. Remarkably, little interest has been paid to researching the subject by the
policy makers and international organizations. As countries worldwide are compelled, or
feel compelled, to increase their elite sport investments in order to maintain or improve their
performance at the Olympics, a better understanding of the impact of these investments on
mass participation is crucial for answering the question of what it costs to be part of this game
(De Bosscher et al. 2008b).
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge Bloso (Flanders) and NOC*NSF (the Netherlands) for allowing us to access the
membership and performance data. We thank Davy Verberen for his help and support in the data
collection and analysis process, as part of his master’s thesis.
Finally, we acknowledge Infostrada for supplying access to their extremely comprehensive and
useful database of performances in order to calculate an ESI in the Netherlands; this access was
delivered through the SPLISS project, in which the authors are involved. Infostrada delivers one of the
world’s largest sports databases that contains all facts and figures on matches, athletes, teams, results,
competitions, tournaments, stadiums, sponsors and much more.
334 V. De Bosscher et al.
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Notes
1. Green (2005) formulated a normative theory for sport development, divided over three stages of
athletes’careers: athlete recruitment, athlete retention and athlete advancement. Green discusses
the factors that hinder and stimulate athletes during these stages. Sotiriadou et al. (2008) provide
an organizational perspective on the elite sport development at three different stages, referring to
this as the ARTN (attraction, retention/transition and nurturing) model. The authors illustrate the
generic processes and strategies that are described by national governing bodies (NSOs in
Australia). They conclude that the pyramid needs to be scrutinized more. Note that four stages
were distinguished in this paper instead of three because (in a European context) progressing to
higher levels of competition is distinguished from talent development.
2. There are no top eight places in four sports: badminton, taekwondo, table tennis and tennis. In
these sports, the total available points were calculated as 10 points for the winner, 8 points for
being a losing finalist, 5.5 points for reaching a semi-final and 2.5 points for reaching a quarter-
final. This system of calculation was adopted from the Dutch sports administration NOC*NSF
(http://www.sport.nl).
3. Note that the silver medal in Beijing in the 4 100 m relay was won by three Flemish runners
(Kim Gevaert, Elodie Quédraogo, Hanna Mariün) and one Walloon athlete (Olivia Borlée).
4. No such data are available for the other sports in Flanders.
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Appendix. A selective overview of (empirical) studies on the three facets of the relationship between elite and mass participation
Authors Source Methods Conclusion
(a) The inspirational function of elite performances for sports participation
Hanstad and Skille
(2010)
Journal article Document analysis, correlations (Pearson’s r) and 21
interviews with the federation and athletes in biathlon
Positive correlation between registered athletes and (a)
Olympic/world championship medals and (b) top 15
places
Feddersen et al.
(2009)
Working paper DD analysis (divergence-in-difference), effect of German
tennis boom related to membership figures
No positive effects of ‘success interventions’; decline in
tennis membership figures after 1990
Weed (2009) Research
policy
report
Effects of success of the national teams in rugby and cricket
(n¼1509), using SPEAR model and links to motivation
model
Mixed effects: positive only for people (32%) already
engaged in sport, for lapsed participants to re-engage
(35%) and for activity switching
Mori (2004) Research
policy
report
Quantitative questionnaire with managers of ice rinks
(n¼16) & curling clubs, n¼295 (50%) & interviews
Participation increase, related to television coverage of 2002
curling teams and success; greatest influence on those who
were already active in sport
Steward and
Nicholson (2004)
Conference
paper
Correlation membership figures and success (OG, WK,
Commonwealth) six sports over 14-year period
No clear relation between success and organized sport
participation (e.g. swimming, cycling, soccer); varies per
sport
van Bottenburg (2003) Book Trends in participation and success in Dutch sports; a
comparison of German versus Dutch tennis, volleyball.
Inconsistent findings: in German versus Dutch tennis and in
Dutch volleyball after success 1992 & 1996; negative
effects in skating, hockey and football; positive in judo and
darts.
van Bottenburg (2001,
2002)
Conference
papers
Correlations participation-success overall sports in 20
countries; relation with broadcasting time (NED)
Positive correlation at the overall sports level only in an
organize sports context and higher if sport is practised
more frequently and intensive
De Bosscher and De
Knop (2003)
Conference
paper
Correlation and regression analysis with tennis success (ATP
and WTA rankings) and (a) registered tennis members 43
European countries (b) tennis courts
Positive significant correlation with tennis members (r¼
0.749) and courts (0.858); adjusted R Square: 38.2% of the
total registered members explained by tennis success
Hogan and Norton
(2000)
Journal article Elite sport spending Australia 1976–1995 is compared with
medal tally and number of sedentary population
No positive effects; while increasing success and elite sport
spending an increased sedentary adult population, as well
as overweight or obesity
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(b) The inspirational function of elite athletes (sport stars as personalities): role model effects in relation to sport participation
Braeckmans et al.
(2005)
Masters thesis Role models effects, opinion survey with 229 young talents
from the elite sport schools in Flanders
Small effects: only 14% of respondents were inspired by an
elite athlete
Vescio et al. (2005) Journal article Role models effects, quantitative and qualitative data from
two focus group interviews and a survey (n¼357)
Small effects, especially for girls, only 8.4% perceived a
sportsperson as role model; characteristics: female, age <
40, similar sporting background masculine/feminine
qualities (such as being kind, modest, caring and fair)
Payne et al. (2003) Research
report
Literature review (95 articles) and 15 interviews with sport
and recreation organizations that offer role model
programmes
Ample theoretical evidence; only two organizations
evaluated their programmes; role models are not always
positive (e.g. negative social images)
(c) The inspirational function of elite events in relation to sport participation
Veal et al. (2012) Journal article Secondary analysis of national survey data on three events Inconsistent findings: mixed results on Sydney OG (only 4%
had changed their participation; positive on adults);
positive after 2003 Rugby World Cup; no evidenceof 2006
Melbourne Commonwealth Games
Chen and Henry
(2012)
Conference
paper
Realist evaluation approach in a non-hosting region of
London 2012, Leicestershire; survey with inhabitants
Positive effects: the region’s inhabitants were more aware of
the benefits of taking part in sport and physical activity;
and their overall amounts of sport and physical activity had
increased
Frawley and Cush
(2011)
Journal article 2003 Rugby World Cup: membership changes and 7
interviews afterwards with senior managers
Positive trend: increase participation; side/indirect effects
related to programmes, increased resources and staff,
increased exposure, identification
DCMS (2012)
a
Research
policy
report
Meta-evaluation of the outputs, outcomes, impacts, benefits
of investment in the legacy of the 2012 Games
To be continued: the results of the post-games initial
evaluation will take place between June 2012 and March
2013
Virginov and Hills
(2008)
Journal article Process oriented approach on Olympic legacies (five
conceptual elements), in two case studies: the EVA
(English Volleyball Association) and Street Games
Contestable Legacy Discourse –Olympic legacy needs to be
constructed (not given). A national policy and long-term
investment strategy, project management is required to
affect sustainable sports participation
Hindson et al. (1994) Journal article Questionnaire: 1992 Olympics (Albertville & Barcelona)
effects on club membership in New Zealand
Limited effect on club membership in the six sports; related to
the lack of marketing and promotion in sports clubs;
Note:
a
Thornton in collaboration with Ecorys and Loughborough University developed a comprehensive and systematic meta-evaluation of the impacts and legacy of the London 2012
Olympic Games. Results are only expected by the end of 2013.
International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 339
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