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Sea-level Rise and Population Displacement in Bangladesh: Impact on India
Abstract
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to climate change and sea level rise (SLR). This has caused large-scale population displacement, human insecurity and illegal migration to India. This paper first analyses the environmental crisis of Bangladesh taking into considerations the problem of SLR, tropical cyclones, soil salinity and mangrove depletion. The second part of the paper discusses its impact on India with special emphasis on the problem of illegal Bangladeshi migration on three areas – North Bengal, Indian Sunderbans Region and North East India. It discusses the possibilities of retaining back the climate-induced migrants through climate change adaptation techniques, people's participation and the bilateral cooperation between India and Bangladesh.
... According to a study of World Bank (2000), Bangladesh will experience 10, 25 The predicted sea level rise is likely to have severe consequences on human settlement. According to Bose (2013), about 35.1 million people (28% of the total population) live in the coastal zones of Bangladesh which inevitably increases the vulnerability of the country to the predicted sea level rise. The IPCC predicts that Bangladesh will loose 17000 square kilometer of its land if sea level rise by 1 meter which will affect 15 million people living in the coastal areas and in the case of sea level rise by 1.5 meter, 22,000 square kilometers of the country's land will be submerged under water and 18 million people will become climate refugee (Bose 2013). ...
... According to Bose (2013), about 35.1 million people (28% of the total population) live in the coastal zones of Bangladesh which inevitably increases the vulnerability of the country to the predicted sea level rise. The IPCC predicts that Bangladesh will loose 17000 square kilometer of its land if sea level rise by 1 meter which will affect 15 million people living in the coastal areas and in the case of sea level rise by 1.5 meter, 22,000 square kilometers of the country's land will be submerged under water and 18 million people will become climate refugee (Bose 2013). World Bank projected a rise of sea level by 1 meter in the coastal areas of Bangladesh by the end of the 21 st Century which will inundate 15 to 17 percent of the total land areas of the country and displace approximately 20 million people from their place of origin (World Bank 2000). ...
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the face of climate change. The country has a history of extreme climatic events causing enormous sufferings to the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. It has made life unsupportable in different disaster prone areas and resulted into the displacement of an increasing number of people from rural and coastal areas of the country. In this regard, the paper aims to understand the process through which people get displaced in the face of climate change in Bangladesh. To understand this scenario, the paper particularly discusses four types of natural calamities i.e. floods, riverbank erosion, tropical cyclones and sea level rise and their resultant consequences on human movement. It is obvious that such calamities have increased in terms of frequency and intensity in recent times and led to a situation of homelessness, landlessness and destruction of livelihood opportunities and compel the victims to move into new places for the sake of their sustenance.
... Besides estimating the rate change, this study has identified the highly eroding transects, which is essential to plan shoreline stabilization programs to reduce further loss.Eroded coastlines activated by higher SLR pose extreme dangers to coastal regions(Sahin et al., 2019). Our study quantified the Sundarbans mangrove loss would be 59,732 ha at 100 cm SLR.Bangladesh's coastal regions are formed of silty and sandy soils, which make them vulnerable to SLR and coastal erosion(Bose, 2013). Studies indicated that the Bay of Bengal's SLR is the highest globally at10 mm yr À1(Eriscson et al., 2006); ranges from 4 to 7.8 mm/year(Alam & Ahmed, 2010). ...
The world's most extensive mangroves, the Sunderbans ecosystem, is highly biodiverse but severely stressed. Past, present and future potential changes in Sunderbans mangroves have been assessed from multi‐temporal satellite data of 1980, 2000, and 2020, elevation data, and topographical maps using geospatial techniques, digital shoreline analysis system, land change modeling, and ground truth verification. The mangrove loss was 16025 ha between 1980 and 2020 and has been predicted as 22286 ha between 2020 and 2050. Major changes were observed from mangroves to waterbodies, mudflats, agriculture, and aquaculture, and vice versa. The shoreline change by endpoint rate indicated the erosion rate by 5.81 m/yr in 2000‐2020 compared to ‐0.90 m/yr in 1980‐2000. The weighted linear regression indicated the average erosion and accretion rate of ‐5.96 m/yr and 4.92 m/yr, respectively, with erosion in 76% transects and accretion in the remaining 24% between 1980 and 2020. The sea‐level rise by a meter will inundate 17486 ha of mangroves. The finding revealed the dynamic nature of mangroves, past and expected future loss, the severely eroding transects, hotspots and the consequences of mangrove loss on depending population. As fringe mangroves will be at greater risk, speedy measures are needed to stabilize the highly eroding regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... Case in point being, mass movement of Bangladeshi illegal migrants to India especially in North Bengal, Indian Sunderbans Region and North East India. 6 Such migrations owing to environmental problems give rise to environmental refugees who seek asylum in neighbouring countries until the situation back home comes back to normalcy. However, in coming years, it might result in permanent displacements. ...
Worldwide spread of COVID-19 pandemic in around 213 countries has made the leaders realise that non-traditional challenges and threats are no more in dormant stage. Rather, they are actively impacting and have the potential to damage the world ecosystem by messing up with the socio-political order set up by nations. Moreover, even earlier, environmental, social and economic factors have gained traction in the national security discourse. Current crisis reveals that these non-traditional factors will take precedence over the traditional ones in the coming years. Despite several warnings from climatologists and experts especially the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) decades ago on occurrence of many pandemics, nobody listened! 1 Similarly, global warming and climate change theories have had a mixed reaction from world leaders, experts, and the public. Rise of "climate change scepticism" is attributed to this confusion that arises wherein one bloc, the epistemic sceptics doubt the status of climate change as a scientific and physical phenomenon. Response sceptics, the other bloc, on the other hand, doubt the efficacy of action taken to address the issue. 2 The latter accepts climate change threats but are either facing socio-politico-economic constraints or are minority voices. This has led to no substantial progress in the area. Notably, the two complimentary challenges-global warming and climate change-are a looming challenge to the West; they will cause existential threats to many littoral and low lying nations especially in the East. Of all the probable issues pertaining to global warming and climate change such as land degradation, heat waves, desertification, water scarcity etc; sea-level rise (SLR) is the most compelling. SLR has the potential to threaten global peace and security by submerging land
... They affect the supply of water and food, as well as the distribution of vectors that can spread infectious diseases (Kirch et al., 2005, p. 306). Regarding sea level rise, in some areas of the globe like Bangladesh it has already led to the displacement of people from coastal shores who must move to other places, becoming climate refugees (Bose, 2013;Khan, Huq, Risha, & Alam, 2021). ...
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Global surface temperatures are rising and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms, are expected to increase in the upcoming decades. Humans, animals, and the overall environment, will be impacted by climate change. Health can be affected directly through environmental hazards and through changes in the patterns and dynamics of a subset of infectious diseases; indirectly, health can be affected by changes in food sources, disruption of methods of food production, and decreased economic productivity. This chapter intents to review the pathways by which climate change may affect health under the transdisciplinary One Health perspective.
... Bangladesh is a low flat land built upon alluvial soil that has washed down over the ages. The most significant feature of the land is the extensive network rivers that are of primary importance to the socio-economic life of the nation (Bose, 2013;National Institute of Population Research and Training [NIPORT], Mitra and Associates, & ICF International, 2013). Compared to other countries in the region, the landmass that constitutes Bangladesh is fairly new (Chowdhury et al., 2013). ...
Bangladesh is a land of rivers, with the settlements near the river banks, coastal areas, and char island areas typically being zones of great poverty. Providing basic healthcare services to these people is a considerable challenge. In this situation, the Friendship Floating Hospitals emerged, offering a line of floating hospitals—the Lifebuoy Friendship Hospital, Emirates Friendship Hospital, and Rongdhonu Friendship Hospital. Providing full-fledged hospitals inside a ship, these ships sail to the threshold of the riverine people of Bangladesh and dock nearby to help people access their basic right to decent health. This article explores the unique health services provided by the Friendship team, utilizing an approach, “the 4As” (affordability, availability, acceptability, and awareness), to assess health service delivery for the riverine people of Bangladesh.
... It is almost entirely surrounded by India, except for a short southeastern frontier with Myanmar and a southern coastline on the Bay of Bengal (Chowdhury et al. 2013). The most significant feature of the land is the extensive network of large and small rivers that are of primary importance to the socioeconomic life of the nation (Bose 2013). Compared with other countries in the region, the landmass that constitutes Bangladesh is relatively new (Chowdhury et al. 2013). ...
Bangladesh consists of wetlands that pose great threat to the public primary education services. BRAC (Building Resources Across Communities) - a non-governmental organization, therefore, took the opportunity to serve unprivileged children by implementing boat schools model in solving barriers of such uninterrupted education. This case focuses in dealing those threats through the usage of prototype boat schools as a vehicle of social innovation for particular regional development. Thus, BRAC boat schools appear to bring blessings for children in accessing their basic right of education to enlighten the society. The impact of boat schools in education is examined to create positive socio-economic changes. However, this study highlights a brief analysis of the context based on diverse stakeholders and their perspectives to contribute in the theoretical endeavor of social innovation in educational context. It inevitably demands a promising avenue of interests to devise further research on the compatibility of social innovation in education to gear up status of an impoverished society.
... Since years ago, Bangladeshi have risked their life to seek a job or escape religious persecution to the neighboring country. The four uppermost destination cities in India to seek for amenities are Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai (Bose, 2013). Furthermore, there is also a migration of Bangladeshi into the territories of North Bengal and India region of the Sundarbans. ...
A comprehensive report as a deliverable of 'Managing Future Delta' course under 'Water Science and Management' master program. The report contains a thorough analysis of the physical, ecological and socio-economic boundary conditions, based on literature, online resources, and interviews (where possible). The objective is to identify the key challenges and develop an integrated management plan up to 2100 for the studied delta area.
Purpose
The small-scale artisanal fishers in coastal Bangladesh are comparatively more vulnerable to climate risks than any other communities in Bangladesh. Based on practicality, this paper aims to explain the local level climate change perception, its impact and adaptation strategies of the fisher in southeast coastal villages in Bangladesh.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve the above objective, this study used structural, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussion in two coastal communities, namely, at Salimpur in the Sitakund coast and Sarikait Sandwip Island, Bangladesh. It reviews and applies secondary data sources to compare and contrast the findings presented in this study.
Findings
Results show that the fishers perceived an increase in temperature, frequency of tropical cyclones and an increase in sea level. They also perceived a decrease in monsoon rainfall. Such changes impact the decreasing amount of fish in the Bay of Bengal and the fishers’ livelihood options. Analysing seasonal calendar of fishing, findings suggest that fishers’ well-being is highly associated with the amount of fish yield, rather than climatic stress, certain non-climatic factors (such as the governmental rules, less profit, bank erosion and commercial fishing) also affected their livelihood. The major adaptation strategies undertaken include, but are not limited to, installation of tube well or rainwater harvesting plant for safe drinking water, raising plinth of the house to cope with inundation and use of solar panel/biogas for electricity.
Originality/value
Despite experiencing social stress and extreme climatic events and disasters, the majority of the fishing community expressed that they would not change their profession in future. The research suggests implementing risk reduction strategies in the coastal region of Bangladesh that supports the small-scale fishers to sustain their livelihood despite climate change consequences.
The aim of this book is to provide information to scientists and local government to help them better understand the particularities of the local climate. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to society. It can lead to serious impacts on production, life and environment on a global scale. Higher temperatures and sea level rise will cause flooding and water salinity problems which bring about negative effects on agriculture and high risks to industry and socio-economic systems in the future. Climate change leads to many changes in global development and security, especially energy, water, food, society, job, diplomacy, culture, economy and trade. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change as: “Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.” Global climate change has emerged as a key issue in both political and economic arenas. It is an increasingly questioned phenomenon, and progressive national governments around the world have started taking action to respond to these environmental concerns.
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human security and sustainability. This chapter illustrates five key areas of its effects in relation to climate change in Bangladesh. These are (i) changes in temperature; (ii) intensity of tropical cyclones; (iii) storm surge heights; (iv) sea level rise; and (v) social vulnerability. In 2008, the Ministry of Environment and Forests revealed that Bangladesh and its adjoining areas had warmed by 0.5 °C over the preceding 100 years. The rise in temperature is generally observed in the monsoon season (June–August). An analysis of the relationship between tropical cyclones and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period between 1901 and 1998 showed that despite increases in SSTs, the frequency of tropical cyclones had decreased since 1981 in the Bay of Bengal. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario, it is projected that tropical cyclone activity in the future is likely to decrease in the Bay of Bengal. It is predicted that rises in the mean sea level (MSL) and increases in the tropical cyclone wind speed will increase the depth of inundation along the Bangladeshi coast by more than 3 m and increase exposed areas by 69% in size. Increases in SST of up to 2 °C will increase the height of storm surges by 23% and increase areas of inundation by up to 1.26 times the present levels of inundation. Analyzing 22 years of data (1977–1988), the South Asian Meteorological Research Council (2003) showed that the relative sea levels in the Bay of Bengal have risen by 4.0 mm/year and 7.8-mm/year along the western and eastern coasts, respectively. Climate change and its associated impacts may include, but are not limited to, declines in livelihood diversity, migration, and disease. The government of Bangladesh and local residents have adopted various strategies in response to extreme events related to climate change. This review identifies further areas of research in relation to understanding of the distinctive impacts of climate change and developing synergy between institution- and community-led adaptation strategies.
Bangladesh frequently experiences tropical cyclones and storm surges resulting from monsoon tropical depression forming in the Bay of Bengal. Although, Bangladesh has made a significant progress in disaster risk reduction, the country still lacks knowledge about post disaster situation in an offshore island area after the occurrence of a super tropical cyclone. This research has been conducted in Sandwip Island because the Island was the worst sufferer of tropical cyclones in historical record. The research is based on field visits, observations, researcher’s living experiences with tropical cyclones and consultation with 200 affected households who directly experienced the April Cyclone. Followed by field observation and community consultation, the Island was divided into three zones according to storm surge height of the April 1991 Cyclone. These are: (1) badly affected area (BAA), (2) moderately affected area (MAA) and (3) less affected area (LAA). The coastal communities who were living adjacent to the coast in the BAA had experienced more deaths, injuries, property losses and sufferings compare to the people of the MAA and LAA. The majority inhabitants in the BAA lost their food, clothing, housing, agriculture and fishing gears. The inhabitants themselves undertook necessary measures to reduce loss and cope with post disaster period. The local island community extended themselves all sorts of cooperation to cope with the devastation. Food help within in-laws, relatives, and neighbours was the main mechanism to survive through post disaster. The people of the BAA received food help from the people of the rest two areas. The first seven days after the tropical cyclone was a very crucial time for the survivors, but they did not receive help from Governmental Organsiations (GOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in that period. When they arrived with relief-rehabilitation programme, it was inappropriate and poor for those who in needs. Additionally, the people of the BAA got less and late relief-rehabilitation items compare to the remaining two areas. This caused further deaths and sufferings of the residents in the BAA. This is an essential research book for those who would like to develop their career in disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable development. Apart from students, researchers, development practitioners, field workers, NGOs, INGOs, UN agencies, Government Officials and planners would find the book easy read guide in developing effective disaster risk reduction and sustainable development initiatives in developing countries.
Previous studies suggest that the expected global warming from the greenhouse effect could raise sea level 50 to 200 cm (2 to 7 ft) in the next century. This article presents the first nationwide assessment of the primary impacts of such a rise on the United States: (1) the cost of protecting ocean resort communities by pumping sand onto beaches and gradually raising barrier islands in place; (2) the cost of protecting developed areas along sheltered waters through the use of levees (dikes) and bulkheads; and (3) the loss of coastal wetlands and undeveloped lowlands. The total cost for a 1‐m rise would be between 475 billion, ignoring future development.We estimate that if no measures are taken to hold back the sea, a 1‐m rise in sea level would inundate 30,000 sq km (14,000 sq mi), with wet and dry land each accounting for about half the loss. The 1500 sq km (600–700 sq mi) of densely developed coastal lowlands could be protected for approximately 2000 per year for a typical coastal lot. Given high coastal property values, holding back the sea would probably be cost‐effective.The environmental consequences of doing so, however, may not be acceptable. Although the most common engineering solution for protecting the ocean coast, pumping sand, would allow us to keep our beaches, levees and bulkheads along sheltered waters would gradually eliminate most of the nation's wetland shorelines. To ensure the long‐term survival of coastal wetlands, federal and state environmental agencies should begin to lay the groundwork for a gradual abandonment of coastal lowlands as sea level rises.
Bangladesh, favoured by a tropical climate, houses the world’s largest stretch of mangroves forests (Sundarbans Reserved Forest) and plantations. Around half of the forests of the country occur in the coastal zone. People extract various goods and services from the mangroves. Nevertheless the mangrove forests are depleting. Although the extent of the Sundarbans forest has not changed much, its decline is of a qualitative nature. Mangrove plantations are increasing in area but they are losing growing stock. To arrest this, Bangladesh has adopted several strategies.
The ‘Sustainable Ecosystem Management’ strategy has now been adopted instead of the ‘Sustained Yield Principle’. Biodiversity conservation and enhancement has been taken as a key management goal. A zoning system is being developed for both production and protection purposes. The government facilitates alternative income for the local people by generating activities for the communities which are dependent on the forest. Different non-governmental organizations collaborate with the government in reducing the local people’s dependence on the forest. Coastal plantations are erected to protect people from cyclones and to make the land more suitable for habitation. Through this greening of the coastal belt tree plantation is encouraged in coastal villages. Coastal embankments are being planted and leased to poor settlers in exchange for routine maintenance of the embankments. Plantations on newly accreted mud flats help in stabilizing the land, which can later on be settled by victims of erosion elsewhere. These adopted management measures do not only contribute to forestry resource management but also to the social, environmental and economic wellbeing of the coastal communities. These efforts are at present being integrated into an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) project.
The purpose of this research was to identify social, culturaland psychological aspects of riverbank erosion-induced displacement in the flood plainsof Bangladesh. Although considerable research has examined the social and economicimpacts of riverine hazards in Bangladesh, there has been a general neglect of associatedpsychosocial implications. The specific objectives of the study were to: (1) assess hazardawareness in relation to riverbank erosion, (2) determine the magnitude of psychologicaldistress associated with displacement, and (3) identify patterns of psychosocial copingand adaptation common to displaced persons in Bangladesh. Although displacees were foundto have a significantly higher level of distress than non-displacees, this was relatedprimarily to socioeconomic deprivation rather than to displacement per se. The findingsof this study showed that the constant threat of riverbank erosion has contributed to asubstantial disaster subculture in the riverine zones of Bangladesh. The commonly hypothesized factorssuch as loss of land and frequency and duration of displacement were notsignificantly associated with distress levels.The need to integrate into hazard analysis and mitigation studiesa social, cultural and psychological context is recommended. In Bangladesh, the poor copewith hardship and problems by relying on religion, which in turn significantlyinfluences how they perceive and interpret natural calamities. It is argued that the capacityof people to respond to environmental threats is a function of not only the physicalforces which affect them, but of indigenous social and cultural belief systems which influencehow people interpret and organize their activities. Hazard analysis and mitigation wouldbe most effective when it takes into account psychological and socio-cultural aspects ofdisasters, due to the fact that psychological distress impacts the capacity of people toachieve livelihoods, but also important social and psychological processes determine the waypeople perceive and adapt to natural hazards.
The mangrove forest of Bangladesh, the largest continuous mangrove forest of the world, is one of the most important coastal features of the country. The existence of the mangrove has increased the values of other coastal and marine resources such as the coastal and marine fisheries by increasing productivity and supporting a wide biological diversity. The artisanal fishery, which is highly influenced by mangroves, has been contributing 85–95% of the total coastal and marine catch of Bangladesh. The mangrove also supports offshore and deep sea fisheries by playing a significant role as nursery ground for many deep sea fishes and shrimps including the giant tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) which is the major species of the industrial bottom trawl fishery of Bangladesh. The mangrove also contributes significantly in shrimp farming which has been the most significant export-oriented industry since the 1970s. However, the mangrove fisheries have been under intensive pressure from deleterious fishing activities and deliberate aquaculture development by destructing mangrove habitats. The impacts of mangrove have been reflected in the contribution of artisanal fishery catch that has been in a continuous decline since the 1980s. Shrimp farming has been the most destructive contributor to mangrove destruction with a corresponding loss of biological resources particularly the wild shrimp fishery. This paper reviews different aspects of the mangrove fisheries of Bangladesh and discusses the impacts of different fisheries. The paper identifies the importance of reviewing, amending and/or replacing the traditional management approaches by the new management techniques such as habitat restoration and stock enhancement in the natural environment; the paper also identifies the need for research findings in formulating and implementing new management approaches.
En la UE se ha estimado que los costes de la congesti�n representan el 2% de su PIB y que el coste de la poluci�n del aire y ruido supera el 0,6% del PIB, siendo alrededor del 90% de los mismos ocasionados por el transporte terrestre. Ante este hecho y el continuo aumento de la demanda del transporte privado frente al p�blico para los desplazamientos, muchos abogan por una conjunci�n de medidas tanto restrictivas como alternativas al uso del coche. Dentro de las primeras se encuentra el establecimiento de un peaje o una tarifa por el uso de las carreteras, medida que aunque desde el punto de vista de la Teor�a Econ�mica es la manera m�s eficiente para corregir el fallo de mercado que supone la congesti�n, desde la visi�n de pol�ticos y del p�blico no goza de gran aceptaci�n. En este trabajo se pretende hacer una simulaci�n de los efectos que tendr�a sobre el bienestar social de la implantaci�n de una medida de este tipo en la Bah�a de C�diz. In the European Union it has been estimated that the congestion cost are the 2% of the gross domestic product and the cost of pollution and noise is over 0,6%, olso it is known that the 90% of this cost are caused by overland transport. For this reason and for the always increasing demand of private transport, there are professionals who thinks that the solution have to be restrictive measures added to alternatives to the car. road pricing is a restrictive measures that for the economic theory is the most efficient way to solve congestion cost but for politicians and user of transport is not always accepted. In this study we are going to simulate road pricing for commuters in the Bah�a of C�diz and then it will be estimated welfare effects.
The 110 million people who live in the low-lying deltaic country of Bangladesh are highly dependent upon an agricultural system that is finely attuned to a tropical monsoon climate and associated water regime. Any significant change in the climate and water regimes of Bangladesh is likely to have profound effects on biological resources. This in turn could have serious effects on the socio-economic systems of the country (see Chapter 5). Here, the effects of climate and sea-level changes on the hydrological and biological resources of Bangladesh are explored through four main questions: What is the current resource setting of Bangladesh? How might the water resources be affected by climate warming? How might crop agriculture be affected? How might other bio-resources be affected by changing climate and water regimes? The final section of this chapter draws conclusions from this review and identifies follow-up actions that could be taken in response to the question: What needs to be done?
It was expected that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Dhaka in September 2011 would transform India–Bangladesh relations. However, this did not happen as India could not sign the Teesta water sharing agreement, the biggest deliverable of the visit. It also made some people brand West Bengal (Paschimbanga) Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee as a spoiler. But did West Bengal stop central government from achieving a historic diplomatic breakthrough for narrow political objectives, or were its leaders only protecting their state interests, which central government may not have been fully able to understand being far away from the region? This article examines the impact of West Bengal politics on India–Bangladesh relations and argues that the role played by the states can often add value to foreign policy making and might actually prevent the centre from jeopardising local interests, thereby protecting national interests as well. The India–Bangladesh relationship can improve if treaties are negotiated in such a way that they become win-win for both sides. This will happen if the treaties are signed after due diligence, taking into account all stakeholders, and if they are implemented sincerely.
This article presents the status of Bangladesh forestry explaining the needs of forest products and the efficiency of forest policy and management practices, and relates sustainability with scarcity situations. The status of forestland use was explained by compartmentalization of indicators into resource factors and social factors. Three indicator groups were used to present the resource and social factors of Bangladesh forestry. The findings suggest that forest sustainability depends not only on resource criteria but also on social criteria. The study also explores how resource and social factors need to be explored for sustainable practices.
This paper integrates information on climate-change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise (SLR) by 2050. The approach identifies polders, coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the damage from storm surge inundation versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimetre SLR and 10% intensification of wind speed resulting from global warming suggest that the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69% given a +3-metre inundation depth, and by 14% given a +1-metre inundation depth. Estimates indicate investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than 50 million. These estimates can serve as a prototype in climate negotiations of the adaptation costs of extreme weather events.
A new method of power quality synthetic evaluation based on relative intensity entropy and local variable weight is presented in the paper. This method firstly uses the relative intensity entropy theory to extract the weights of the individual power quality indicators, and then does synthetic evaluation to the power quality data combined with the method of local state variable weight to amend the index weights, and gives the assessment point levels of their power quality. This new evaluation method embodies the gradual change of objective evaluation index weights with indicators values, and could do incentives and penalties to some weights of internal indicators. The simulation results show that the method proposed in this paper is more suitable for power quality evaluation, and has more practical significance.
Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. This paper discusses the possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and back water effect. The possible increase in cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal, lying south of Bangladesh, due to climate change is looked at by analyzing the cyclone data for 119 yr. Both qualitative and quantitative discussions are made on cyclone intensity increase for a sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4°C. Different scenarios of storm surges under different climate change conditions are developed by using a numerical model of storm surges for the Bay of Bengal. Possible loss of land through beach erosion due to sea level rise on the eastern coast of Bangladesh is examined. Some discussions are also made on the impacts of back water effect due to sea level rise on flood situations in the country. Finally, a few remarks are made on the adaptation options for Bangladesh in the event of climate change.
The Bangladesh coast is threatened by rising sea level due to various factors. The results based on the analysis of past 22 years of tidal data of the Bangladesh coast reveal that the annual mean tidal level in the eastern Bangladesh coast is rising at an alarmingly high rate of 7.8 mm/year, which is almost twice the observed rate in the western region. This type of sea level trend seems to be the result of changing local conditions like increased precipitation and land subsidence during the recent decades. It seems that the higher rate of land subsidence in the eastern Bangladesh coast is the main causative factor for the steeper sea level trends there. The differential sea level trends show that the subsidence component in the sea level rise may be as high as 4 mm/year in the eastern Bangladesh coast. However, this needs to be verified with actual geological observations.
This article begins with the historical perspective of the Indo-Bangladesh negotiations over common water-related issues in the GBM system. It presents a complete account of the common waters-related issues that exist between India and Bangladesh. It critically examines the genesis and performance of the institutional mechanisms that have evolved over time, particularly the scope and limitations of the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC). The role of JRC is examined in the context of the treaties and MOUs signed between India and Bangladesh for sharing the Ganges at various times. Lessons learned from these and other international negotiations are compiled to make the JRC more effective and efficient. The potential role of third party mediation in the GBM system is discussed along with the role of multi-track diplomacy. Some pertinent theoretical issues are raised regarding the narrow and ambiguous definitions of ``benefit'' and ``equity'' as mentioned in the statues of the JRC. The difficulty of setting a baseline for water sharing is discussed. Finally, it is recommended that the JRC should be expanded into the JWC (Joint Waters Commission) to allow for incorporation of other water-related issues such as watershed management, water quality and coastal ecosystem management. It is emphasized that political willingness has been the single most important factor in determining the success of bilateral negotiations in the GBM system.
Bangladesh consists mainly of riverine and deltaic deposits of three large and extremely dynamic rivers entering the country: the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna rivers. The average flood discharges of these rivers (individually) are within the range of 14,000 to 100,000 m/s. Islands and bars are very common features among them all. In Bangladesh, both islands and bars are known as chars, but in this article only the vegetated islands within the riverbanks are referred to as chars. They are difficult to access and form an extremely dynamic environment for around 600,000 people that try to make a living under extreme and hazardous conditions of frequent and intensive flooding and erosion. People displaced by char erosion have no other alternative than to settle on accreting char land elsewhere, creating a typical social and economic char environment. The economics of the char lands are largely based on agriculture, fishing and livestock‐rearing. Education, health and extension services and support to cope with the calamities of flood and erosion are minimal. This not only results in individual misery, but also in unrealized potential of resources on the chars.Satellite imagery, available from the ‘70s onward, have facilitated several comprehensive studies of the dynamics of the rivers and chars. They have, in combination with social surveys, provided a good understanding of the interaction between the physical environment and the livelihoods of the char dwellers. They have also enabled predictions, e.g. on the total area and mobility of chars in the next decade. This has improved understanding and predictive capability that could lead to a better utilization of the potential resources of the chars to improve the livelihoods of char dwellers.
Although the coastal ecosystem of Bangladesh contains a highly functional and structurally diverse ecology, this ecology is gradually being degraded. As a consequence, the quality of life of a large section of the coastal community is in economic decline. This poses a daunting challenge to the sectoral coastal management programmes, active since the 1960s, aiming at simultaneously ameliorating people's livelihood and supporting the ecosystem. These programmes have been reasonably successful in managing the ecosystem, but in many cases, the situation has become worse. The limitations of these programmes include the tendency to adopt an exclusionist approach, a narrowly departmentalized administration and weak management. Currently, the integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) approach is espoused as the main strategy. With the adoption of Bangladesh's Coastal Zone Policy of 2005, the foundation for integrated management was laid. The next realistic target will be to bring about changes in culture and mandate among coastal institutions in favour of integrated management.
Despite the recent better understanding and awareness of the role of mangroves, these coastal forest communities continue to be destroyed or degraded (or euphemistically reclaimed) at an alarming rate. The figure of 1% per year given by Ong (1982) for Malaysia can be taken as a conservative estimate of destruction of mangroves in the Asia-Pacific region. Whilst the Japanese-based mangrove wood-chips industry continues in its destructive path through the larger mangrove ecosystems of the region, the focus of mangrove destruction has shifted to the conversion of mangrove areas into aquaculture ponds and the consequences of the unprecedented massive addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by post industrial man.
Mangroves are non-homogeneous; characterised by distinct vegetative zones that occupy the interface between and and sea and dynamically interacting with the atmosphere above as well as with the influences of the adjacent land and sea. The conservation of mangroves should thus include not only the various vegetation and tidal inundation zones but also the adjacent marine and terrestrial areas (including the water catchment area).
On the current concern with global climate change, it is pointed out that relative sea level change is very much site dependent. For effective planning and management, it is vital to know if a particular site is stable, rising or sinking so efforts should be directed to find suitable methods for determining this. However, should rapid relative sea level rise take place, there is very little likelihood of saving mangroves whose landward margins have been developed by man, a fact to bear in mind when selecting sites for conservation. The Matang mangroves of Malaysia is a rare case of successful sustainable management of a tropical rain forest. Although the tools of management are available they are not widely applied. We particularly urge the Japanese mangrove wood-chips industry to look to long term sustainable use rather than short term gains. A suggestion is made to appeal to the new Government of Japan to take the lead in environmental friendliness especially to the rain forests of the Asia-Pacific region.
Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that climate change may trigger violent conflict. The paper explains the ways in which climate change is a security issue. It includes in its discussion issues to do with both mitigation and adaptation of climate change.
Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.
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a geochemist developed an accurate method of CO 2 measurement in the atmosphere. From 1958, he started recording the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. The famous " Keeling Curve
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