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The seismology of psephology: 'Earthquake elections' from the Folketing to the Dáil
Abstract
Amid increasingly de-aligned electoral behaviour since the 1970s, several electoral contests in developed democracies have stood out as ‘earthquake elections’. However, since the original manifestations of these in Scandinavia, there has been little systematic analysis as to what exactly constitutes one. The present article re-examines the 1973 Danish ‘Jordskredsvalget’ and measures subsequent ‘earthquakes’ against it. It finds that not all dramatic elections necessarily qualify as ‘earthquakes’ and in particular, that the most recent apparent occurrence, in Ireland in 2011, actually disguised considerable stability within the party system.
... As in Greece, the economic crisis ruptured the party system. The dominant party, the centre-right Fianna Fáil (FF), was relegated to third place for the first time in its history (Hutcheson, 2011). In 2011, it was replaced by a coalition of the centre-right/conservative Fine Gael (FG) and social-democratic/centrist Irish Labour (Labour, 2011). ...
This article addresses an important but understudied aspect of the recent Great Recession in Europe: the institutional strategies political elites deployed to address accountability and learning, more specifically, truth commissions (TCs). We raise two overlapping, puzzles. The first concerns the timing of the decision to adopt an economic TC: whilst Iceland established a TC at early stages of the crisis, Greece and Ireland did so much later. What accounts for ‘early’ versus ‘delayed’ truth seekers? The second concerns variations in learning outcomes. Iceland’s commission paved the way for learning institutional lessons, but TCs in Greece and Ireland became overtly politicised. What accounts for these divergences? The article compares truth commissions in Iceland, Greece and Ireland and identifies two types of political learning – institutional and instrumental – related to the establishment of a TC. It argues political elites in countries with higher pre-crisis levels of trust in institutions and public transparency are more likely to establish economic TCs quickly; this is the ‘institutional logic’ of learning. The ‘instrumental logic’ of learning, in contrast, leads governments interested in apportioning blame to their predecessors to establish commissions.
In: Muro D and Lago I (eds) The Oxford Handbook of Spanish Politics. Oxford Handbooks. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 347–369.
The new democratic system established in Spain in the late 1970s has supposed a breakaway from almost two centuries of discontinuity, instability, and fraud. This rupture has not been accidental: it has been favoured by an appropriate electoral system, the moderation of Spanish voters, and the decision of political elites to play potentially destabilizing cleavages down when the new democracy was still in its infancy and the possibility of new spells of instability could not be foreclosed. Social divides have been gradually incorporated as anchors of voting and, together with ideological self-placement, which has played a key role in Spanish elections, and short-term factors, government alternation has taken place in several occasions. In two cases, the 1982 and 2015 elections, electoral earthquakes or realignments did occur, but they have bolstered the legitimacy of the political system instead of menacing it. While the former opened up a different and long-lasting scenario, the consequences of the second one are yet to be devised.
The victory of the radical-left SYRIZA in the September 2015 election confounded expectations given the failure of the SYRIZA–ANEL government formed in January either to deliver on its central promise of reversing austerity policies or to capitalise on its major victory in the July referendum. The article examines both the election and the referendum that preceded it, offering an explanation for SYRIZA’s victory. It also attempts to trace the trajectory of the current party system in Greece and its ongoing realignment process in light of the 2015 electoral contests and the busy political timeline since the formation of the first SYRIZA–ANEL government.
The September 2011 Danish parliamentary election led to a change of government as the centre-right coalition of the previous ten years was replaced by a centre-left one headed by the leader of the Social Democrats, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. The victory was very narrow, however, and Thorning-Schmidt's own party endured its worst result for more than a century. The new government is moreover reliant on parties with very different policy agendas to pass its legislative programme.
This paper aims to present possible explanations as to why radical right-wing populist parties have been highly successful in Denmark but have largely failed in Sweden. It shows that Denmark and Sweden shared several important opportunity structures, in particular related to anti-immigrant sentiments among the electorates and feelings of disenchantment toward the political institutions, but also that the two countries diverged in some important ways: First, while the socioeconomic cleavage dimension lost much of its importance in Danish politics, it was still highly salient in Swedish politics. Secondly and related, the issue of immigration has been much more politicized in Denmark than in Sweden. While immigration has dominated the political agenda in Danish politics during the last decade, in Sweden the socioeconomic dimension has taken center stage.
A new and wide-ranging empirical overview of party policy in 47 modern democracies, including all of the new democracies of Eastern Europe. It updates and radically extends Policy and Party Competition (1992), which established itself as a key mainstream data source for all political scientists exploring the policy positions of political parties. This essential text is divided into three clear parts: Part I introduces the study, themes and methodology Part II deals in depth with the wide range of issues involved in estimating and analyzing the policy positions of key political actors. Part III is the key data section that identifies key policy dimensions across the 47 countries, detailing their party positions and median legislators, and is complemented by graphical representations of each party system. This book is an invaluable reference for all political scientists, particularly those interested in party policy and comparative politics.
Israel's 1996 elections were among the most critical in its history. They were the first with a two ballot system, one for direct election of the prime minister, a second for Knesset members. The new system was intended to strengthen the premiership by diminishing its dependence on the bargaining required to form government coalitions. The result, however, was a more factionalized parliament. The two major parties, Labor and Likud, were greatly weakened and, surprisingly, the religious bloc and several new parties, representing ethnic or special interests, gained substantial influence.
One particular type of minor candidate outside of the party circle is the independent. Perhaps the most exceptional feature of the Irish political (party) system, the persistence and significance of independents have exceeded that of many minor parties. This presence is pretty unusual in most liberal democracies, where independents are seen as irrelevant at best, and a menace at worst. This article assesses the support bases of these candidates. Beginning with aggregate data, it details where independents have experienced success and the consistency (or lack) of their vote. Using individual-level data, the nature of the independent voter is determined. It is found that there are few social bases to such a vote. Localism, personalism and protest are significant factors, but an independent vote is more of an expression of apathy towards parties rather than a specific antipathy.
The September 2001 parliamentary election represented a political earthquake that may lead to a major restructuring of the party system. The communist successor formation, the Democratic Left Alliance, was returned to office after a four-year gap, and the post-Solidarity groupings that had formed the previous governments were soundly beaten. Very few commentators had foreseen such a result, or certain other surprises. The biggest of all was the success of two radical-populist groupings that emerged at a very late stage in the campaign. The over-arching theme of this election was a backlash against the political establishment in general and incumbents in particular, and it has left the Polish party system unstable and unbalanced. The Democratic Left Alliance appears to have confirmed its hegemony on the left, but it is unclear what alternatives are likely to crystallize on the fractious and unstable centre-right over the next few years.
This article charts the Irish Labour Party’s (ILP) journey from a minor to mainstream political party between 1987 and 1992. This is arguably the most turbulent period in the party’s electoral history, when the ILP performed significantly below its average result, before making unprecedented electoral gains. It identifies the factors which led to this fall and rise during the discussed period and reflects on the ILP’s place in the Irish party system arguing that the term ‘mainstream’ or ‘proximal mainstream’ party with regard to the ILP is perhaps more appropriate than the terms ‘major’ or ‘minor’ party, especially in view of its return to its usual level of support following the gains of 1992.
In Denmark and Norway, major research programmes known as the ‘power and democracy studies’ have evaluated the functioning of the political systems and democracy in general, highlighting numerous changes in both Danish and Norwegian politics over recent decades. However, despite the broad range of studies that characterize both programmes, it is striking how little attention has been paid to changes in party politics and party competition. This article, which focuses on Danish politics, argues that attention to the development of party competition would have been warranted for two reasons. First, party competition has undergone a transformation from class to issue competition. Political parties increasingly focus their efforts on influencing the content of the political agenda rather than positioning themselves with regard to a limited number of issues deriving from their class bases. Second, this transformation arguably explains some of the findings of the power and democracy studies, especially concerning political decision making.
In recent years it has become increasingly difficult to maintain that the European party systems are stable and that they reflect the societal cleavage structures of the past. One developmental aspect of the party systems is singled out for description and analysis in this paper. It is argued that European party systems in terms of electoral volatility, i.e. rates of net change in the electorates, are drifting away from each other. Some of the party systems which have traditionally been considered volatile, apparently are becoming less so, while some other systems are taking on the character of highly volatile party systems. A simple set of hypotheses, based upon the notion of party space, is proposed in order to account for the variation observed. The data lend support to the hypothesis that electoral volatility is a function of the format of the party system and of short-term changes in that format.
The frozen party hypothesis has been rejected in several contemporary studies. However, by conceptualizing the Scandinavian parties in three categories, and by focusing the study on the three pole parties originally emphasized by Stein Rokkan, the bulk of the Scandinavian party system is still frozen. Diminishing class voting and electoral instability are inefficient measures of how well cleavages structures are reflected in the party system. Cleavages must be understood in a broader context where the struggle between the three fronts to incorporate new categories of voters is the very essence of an enduring cleavage structure.
This paper analyses the 1993 Canadian federal election from three perspectives; (1) the significance of the campaign; (2) the contribution of institutional variables, especially the electoral system, to the outcome; (3) and most important, the election as the vehicle for a paradigm shift with respect to, (i) a new relationship of the party system to the constitutional issue, (ii) a repudiation of several basic constitutional assumptions of the last decade, (iii) the retreat of the interventionist expenditure state, (iv) a strong challenge to elitism in the party system and in parliament, and (v) the overt emergence of lifestyle, cultural issues into partisan politics.
The 1992 electoral earthquake and the fall of the ‘second Israeli republic
- Hadar
- T Leon
The earthquake: Israel's ninth Knesset elections
- Peretz
- Don
The Israeli elections in 2006: political earthquake and continuity” In In Institut Europeu de la Mediterrània, Med Available online www.iemed.org/anuari/2007/asumari.php
- Spektorowski
- Alberto
Denmark's protest election of December 1973
- Borre
- Ole