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Learning From Toys: Lessons in Managing Supply Chain Risk from the Toy Industry
Abstract
The toy industry faces relentless change and an unpredictable buying public, which creates immense challenges in anticipating best sellers and predicting volume. Like the high-technology industry, toys also suffer from many supply chain ailments including short product life, rapid product turnover, and seasonal demand. Coupled with long supply lines and ongoing political and economic turmoil in Asia, toy makers face an unusually complex set of risks. Managers in many businesses can learn valuable lessons in managing uncertainty from toy makers. This article describes supply chain lessons focused on reducing risk by actively managing both demand and supply variability. These lessons include product variety strategies based on product extensions; rolling mix strategies; leveraged licensing agreements; coordinated outsourcing strategies; and hedging against political and currency risk by producing in many different countries.
... Mainan adalah salah satu produk konsumsi tertua di dunia. Selama empat dekade terakhir, industri mainan terus mengalami perkembangan dari industri rumah tangga menjadi sebuah industri besar dengan omzet penjualan mencapai USD 5 miliar [1]. Ciri khas utama bisnis mainan adalah perubahan dan ketidakpastiannya yang cepat. ...
... Permintaan yang dipengaruhi oleh tren tertentu, dapat berubah mendadak dalam semalam dan kemudian tiba-tiba menguap saat produk viral berikutnya menyapu pasar. Inovasi produk yang konstan, siklus hidup yang pendek, dan tingkat kanibalisasi yang tinggi adalah ciri khas industri mainan [1]. ...
... Dataset yang digunakan adalah data transaksi penjualan dalam bentuk time-series selama 1913 hari untuk memprediksi penjualan 28 hari ke depan. Hasil perhitungan RMSSE, menunjukkan bahwa model berbasis LSTM dan LightGBM memiliki kemampuan prediksi yang lebih baik (0,812) dibanding Linear Regression (1,46) dan SVM (1,12). ...
Ciri khas utama industri mainan adalah perubahan dan ketidakpastiannya yang cepat. Permintaan yang dipengaruhi oleh tren tertentu, dapat berubah secara mendadak dan tiba-tiba menghilang saat produk viral berikutnya menguasai pasar. Inovasi produk yang konstan, siklus hidup yang pendek, dan tingkat kanibalisasi yang tinggi berpotensi mengeluarkan biaya relatif lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan industri lain dalam hal persediaan usang, kehilangan penjualan, dan penurunan harga. Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut maka dilakukan penelitian untuk memprediksi penjualan mainan menggunakan model algoritma LightGBM dalam bentuk time-series dengan dataset penjualan 460 item mainan yang diklasifikasikan menjadi 14 kategori dalam rentang waktu 1.353 hari dengan periode prediksi 1, 3, dan 6 bulan. Penelitian ini menghasilkan 42 model berdasarkan kategori produk dan periode prediksi, dengan nilai RMSE terbaik 0.0042 pada model mainan KARTU, dan 3 model untuk semua kategori berdasarkan periode prediksi dengan nilai RMSE terbaik 0.0380 pada periode prediksi 1 bulan.
... Prior advertising had occurred only around the holiday season. The popular daily kids show made the Mattel brand well known among the viewing audience, translating quickly into steady sales throughout the year [11]. The effects of this event still linger on, as transmedia narratives become more and more common, and marketing techniques cross media platforms almost seamlessly. ...
... "In 1984, the two industry leaders accounted for 21% of U.S. retail toy sales. Fifteen years later, Mattel and Hasbro own over 33% of the market with the next largest player controlling only 3%" [11]. The marketplace within the toy industry is a rapidly evolving one, so is the distribution. ...
... The marketplace within the toy industry is a rapidly evolving one, so is the distribution. Johnson writes that during a fifteen-year period of consistent combination for makers, change was additionally happening in distribution and that in the same way as other businesses, changes in the retail channel have re-imagined the toy inventory network, according to Johnson, in the previous fifteen years, retail chains have lost 16 market share points of the overall industry generally to discounters and national toy chains [11]. Now one of the official manufacturers of Star Wars toys, Hasbro controls a big share of the market, and selling products belonging to a global brand such as Star Wars, has benefits in distribution as well. ...
... Zsidison (2003) proposed a model that focusses only determining risk sources from his research on supply chain managers. On the other hand, Johnson (2001) was only concerned with developing a framework that serves the toy industry. ...
... Other scholars, who have highlighted similar weaknesses in the models discussed above (Zsidison 2003, Johnson 2001, have criticised them as the major reasons managers have found it difficult to implement in operations or reduce the occurrence of avoidable failure and consequently poor performance. Recently, a trend is emerging for scholars, researchers, and industry experts to define new, more detailed and practical methods for risk management for specific industries and operations. ...
The oil industry is considered to be a major industry as it provides energy to all other industries. This industry is exposed to various risks due to extreme circumstances, such as remote area locations, harsh environment, equipment, and functional engineering materials that are exclusively manufactured for this industry. All of these circumstances can disrupt and threaten the existences of the industry.
This is where risk management and supply chain risk management is vitally needed by researchers and practitioners. Therefore, the assessment and prediction of the impact of risks on the procurement operation performance of projects is a very challenging task. As a result of this, many projects in the Libyan oil industry and worldwide are still suffering from the impact of these risks. The aspect of risk in supply chain management is underdeveloped on the body of literature, and very few studies have addressed this issue due to its confidentiality.
The purpose of this research is to investigate the role of supply-chain risk management in the Libyan oil industry and to understand how procurement practitioners assess supply chain risk management to achieve smooth procurement operations. The author derives a set of propositions and preliminary results which contribute to developing strategies to identify and mitigate those risks. Hence, the contribution to knowledge is to investigate these issues within the Libyan oil industry and also to develop a framework that can be used as a risk management supporting tool.
Qualitative and quantitative (triangulation) were adopted for this research. This comprised of the investigation of 65 out of 93 Libyan procurement practitioners, as well as interviews of which 9 Libyan procurement practitioners participated.
This research finds that service providers and contractor companies are the highest percentage within stakeholders, who are practising supply risk management techniques. However, this percentage is still low within its group.
This research also identifies types of risks that majorly affect the performance of procurement operations, such as purchasing clone parts. Thus, providing valuable information for particular stages of response planning. It also explores how the consideration of risk management can reshape supply chain management. Moreover, a Procurement Risk Management Framework (PRMF) that has been developed and empirically validated
... Toys, as well as many other consumer goods, are designed under a planned obsolescence framework ( Satyro et al., 2018 ). This started in the toy industry around 1994 when Mattel began using a "rolling mix" where they would release slightly changed prod-ucts, such as Hot Wheels TM or Barbie, twice over the course of a year ( Johnson, 2001 ). This was done to increase sales: "If customers saw new products every time they went to the store, they were more likely to buy" ( Johnson, 2001 ). ...
... This started in the toy industry around 1994 when Mattel began using a "rolling mix" where they would release slightly changed prod-ucts, such as Hot Wheels TM or Barbie, twice over the course of a year ( Johnson, 2001 ). This was done to increase sales: "If customers saw new products every time they went to the store, they were more likely to buy" ( Johnson, 2001 ). When toys are designed with a short life span, their environmental impact will be higher since impact is apportioned over the toy's lifetime. ...
Quantifying product impact is one way to make the environmental consequences of purchases clear to consumers and retailers. This paper provides a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of the environmental impacts of common children's toys. We compare 3 Lego™ sets, 1 Barbie™, 1 Jenga game, 1 plush dog, 1 plush dog with battery components, and 1 Marble Frenzy™ game, each representing a larger category of toy. After determining the materials in each toy, we built these toys in OpenLCA with existing materials data from LCA databases. Our results showed that a Lego Star Wars set had the highest eutrophication potential with the largest single contribution to impact from injection molding. This Lego set also had the highest GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions due to the use of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plastic. Jenga had the highest acidification impact but the lowest GWP of all the toys despite having the highest mass. Our results indicate low GHG emissions and eutrophication potential of wood as a toy material. Wood's acidification potential, however, was the highest of all studied toy materials since impacts included land management for forestry though final wood processing. While plastic had a higher impact per mass than wood, the type of plastic used was important in determining the GHG emissions: ABS and polyvinylchloride (PVC) composition was lower impact than nylon granulate, and other plastics. Since our functional units determined impact per twenty hours of use over 2 years, increased toy longevity was one option to reduce toy impact, though even increased toy longevity should be combined with design for sustainability coupled with transparent environmental labeling to communicate the environmental value of low impact toys to consumers.
... Las cadenas de suministro enfrentan riesgos de oferta y demanda; por lo tanto, la gestión del riesgo de la cadena de suministro es fundamental. (Johnson, 2001) (Enyinda, 2011). La medición del desempeño de la cadena de suministro es fundamental para evaluar la efectividad y la capacidad de respuesta de la cadena de suministro (Varma, 2008); (Charan, 2012). ...
... Por otro lado, la industria juguetera se caracteriza por el ciclo de vida del producto corto, la demanda volátil y los riesgos de capacidad, por lo que las estrategias de licenciamiento y externalización son opciones de cadena de suministro viables (Johnson, 2001); (Wong, 2005). ...
The transformation that the logistic systems are experiencing because of the digital revolution, requires a complete organizational, cultural, and strategic reinvention, which in the defense and security sector affects both the military and police forces and all the participating companies in the same. Since last decade, the international community has been affected for the generation of a New World Order that in the defense and security sector has conditioned the establishment of new general requirements to concretize the strategic concept of support of weapons systems. Based on these new requirements the Air Forces will have to manage the aerospace opera-tions to respond to the risks and threats, both in current and future terms, of the new international defense and security paradigm. This translates into the need to assume the permanent transformation of the models and pro-cesses of integrated logistic support (ILS) and in-service support (ISS) which guarantees the viability and sus-tainability of aerospace operations. The paper analyzes the most significant conceptual elements of what is the application of the new logistics 4.0 represents in the defense and security sector. It also explores the possible strategic changes that are considered necessary to be introduced into the aeronautical logistics to carry out the transformation of ISS of aerospace weapons systems, in view of the foreseeable exponential digital technological evolution.
... As per my recommendation, the specialized suppliers of critical and long lead materials that are required in oil & gas projects in Saudi Arabia that are located in unstable Economic and Political climate must be invited and assisted to setup their manufacturing units in Saudi Arabia or nearby politically and economically stable countries by adopting operational hedging strategy to mitigate the supply risk. Cudahy et al., (2008) & Johnson, (2001) also advised to use operational hedging to mitigate the political risk ...
The contents of this report discuss the use of proactive strategic procurement approach to maximize the competitive advantage in procurement function and its significance in maximizing profitability by reducing the waste in the value chain. The proactive strategic procurement operation approach is further explained with the help of a case study of an organization for the critical examination of the Procurement function and thereafter investigation of the procurement function by considering the areas of Procurement Strategy and Supply Risk to explore the possibilities of improvement in the procurement functions to compensate external turbulences in the markets. A critical analysis of the current procurement function of ABC Company is performed as the organization seeks to increase its market share.
... Toys are manufactured under a planned obsolescence framework, meaning they are designed with disposal in mind in order to be replaced by new products upon their release, even if the older product is still functional 11 . For example, the brands Hot Wheels and Barbie release slightly altered products twice in a year to maintain this framework 12,13 . Increased production without repair or recovery, especially of durable and complex mixtures like the case of plastic toys, increase their environmental impact and make them contribute to pollution. ...
The presence of harmful legacy additives in plastic toys poses risks to children’s health and limits the possibilities for reuse of second-handy toys and the recycling of the plastics toys. This review article examines the lifecycle of plastic toys and the persistence of hazardous chemicals, including phthalates and brominated flame retardants. Difficulties in recycling practices due to heterogeneous material composition and the perpetuation of a 'risk cycle' of toxic legacy additives are discussed. The review identified significant regulatory gaps, particularly in toys manufactured outside the EU, and revealed the ongoing circulation of toxic substances in both new and second-hand toys. This study highlights the necessity of addressing chemical risks in toys within the context of a circular economy and indicates opportunities for advancing sustainable practices in the toy industry. By evaluating regulatory gaps and recycling practices, the study emphasizes the need for stricter enforcement, enhanced consumer awareness and sustainable waste management strategies to promote a safer circular economy.
... The idea is that it extends and broadens the possibility to innovate, allowing companies to push beyond their internal boundaries in term of expertise in resources or technology! In other words, a capacity for innovation (Johnson, 2001). ...
The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between big data, external knowledge, crowdsourcing, open innovation, digital technology and sustainable environmental performance in manufacturing sector in United States of America (USA). The study collected a sample of 373 responses and data was analyzed using JASP 0.19.0. The study found that the impact of big data is significant on external knowledge, open innovation and crowdsourcing. The study further found that external knowledge and crowdsourcing have a significant impact on open innovation and open innovation has a significant impact on digital technology and sustainable environmental performance. While the study also found that digital technology has a significant impact on sustainable environmental performance. The study is novel as previously there was gaps in literature, and recommendations of this study can foster a culture of sustainable environmental performance in manufacturing sector in USA.
... Modern technology helps mitigate these risks through digitalization and data analytics [54]. Supply chain risks are categorized into demand risks, such as seasonal fluctuations, and supply risks, like manufacturing challenges [55]. Risks include delays, disruptions, forecast inaccuracies, and intellectual property breaches [56]. ...
Background: Ensuring the consistent availability of essential medicines is crucial for effective healthcare systems. However, Ethiopian public health facilities have faced frequent stockouts of crucial medications, highlighting systemic challenges such as inadequate forecasting, prolonged procurement processes, a disjointed distribution system, suboptimal data quality, and a shortage of trained professionals. This study focuses on the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Services (EPSS), known for its highly unstable and volatile supply chain, aiming to identify risks and mitigation strategies. Methods: Using a mixed-method approach involving surveys and interviews, the research investigates successful and less successful strategies, key success factors, and barriers related to pharmaceutical shortages. Results: Proactive measures such as communication, stock assessment, supervision, and streamlined procurement are emphasized as vital in mitigating disruptions, while reactive strategies like safety stock may lack long-term efficacy. The study highlights the importance of aligning supply chain strategies with product uncertainties, fostering collaboration, and employing flexible designs for resilience. Managerial implications stress the need for responsive structures that integrate data quality, technology, and visibility. Conclusions: This study contributes by exploring proactive and reactive strategies, elucidating key success factors for overcoming shortages in countries with unstable supply chains, and offering actionable steps for enhancing supply chain resilience. Embracing uncertainty and implementing proactive measures can help navigate volatile environments, thereby enhancing competitiveness and sustainability.
... First of all, we need to understand the role and status of the application of technology and big data in the cross-border supply chain management of toys. Information technology and big data play a crucial role in supply chain management, especially in cross-border operations [7]. Toy manufacturers can analyze data in real-time through information technology, accurately predict market demand, optimize inventory levels, and reduce the risk of excess or shortage. ...
Over the past few decades, the wave of globalization has dramatically changed the landscape of production and consumption, including the toy industry. This paper delves into the contemporary landscape of cross-border supply chain management within the toy industry, meticulously examining the principal challenges it faces and the lucrative opportunities it presents. Through a rigorous analysis of the toy supply chain amidst the backdrop of globalization, this paper identifies the pivotal factors that influence both efficiency and sustainability. Based on our findings, we formulate countermeasures aimed at addressing these challenges. The discussion is centered on strategies for optimizing supply chain management and bolstering competitiveness, emphasizing technological innovation, fostering greater transparency within the supply chain, strengthening partnerships, and ensuring compliance with international trade regulations. By doing so, it aims to contribute to the advancement of supply chain practices in the toy industry, ensuring its resilience and success in the global market.
... Demand for a fad-sensitive product in these industries can shift from lukewarm to boiling overnight and then suddenly evaporate as the next trendy design hits the market. 1 Thus, these industries require regular insertion of innovative new designs in the market. The financial stakes of these industries in the Indian economy are hardly trivial. ...
India has a specific legislation for the scheme of industrial designs which mandates statutory registration as a pre-requisite to obtain IP rights in designs. Industries characterised by products having short lifecycle, release colossal number of new designs in the market in short intervals of time. Due to the dynamism of these sectors, registering all the industrial designs, is not practically and commercially feasible. As the present design regime in India, governed by the Designs Act, 2000, only protects the registered designs, it leaves the unregistered ones open to rampant copying and piracy. The European Union and the United Kingdom are two jurisdictions which offer advanced protection to the unregistered designs, which has proved to provide a competitive edge to their industries, by incentivising their design innovation. Against this background, the article seeks to critically analyse the Designs Act, 2000 to locate loopholes under it, in extending protection to the unregistered designs, undertake a comparative analysis of the unregistered design protection in European Union and United Kingdom, and propose suggestions for introduction of unregistered design rights in India. Further, rapid design piracy caused by 3-D printing, mass production techniques and advanced technologies, supports the urgent need to extend an argument for protection of unregistered designs under the Indian Design regime.
... Another potential source of risks for a company is its SC, where risks can stem from various areas, such as the suppliers, the customers or demand side, and even competitors. Price fluctuations in the supply markets (Zsidisin, 2003;Cucchiella and Gastaldi, 2006;Melnyk et al., 2009), supplier quality problems ( (Zsidisin, 2003;Cucchiella and Gastaldi, 2006;Tummala and Schoenherr, 2011;Mangla et al., 2015b;Rostamzadeh et al., 2018) among others), capacity fluctuations or shortages of the suppliers, poor logistics performance of suppliers/logistic service providers, and supplier capability ( (Johnson, 2001;Tummala and Schoenherr, 2011;Rostamzadeh et al., 2018;Abdel-Basset and Mohamed, 2020;Aman et al., 2022) among others) are some of the risks that can originate from upstream of the SC and restrict the ability to obtain adequate quantities and qualities of inputs (Miller, 1992). On the other hand, risks related to the downstream are the ones that can occur due to volatile or unanticipated customer demand (Knemeyer et al., 2009;Rao and Goldsby, 2009;Zhao et al., 2013;Rostamzadeh et al., 2018;Aman et al., 2022), insufficient or distorted order information, bad payment behavior, or payment defaults of customers (Chopra and Sodhi, 2004;Sodhi and Lee, 2007), and so on, which can change the demand for an industry's products unexpectedly. ...
... Az ellátási lánc a menedzsment szakirodalomban, mint a menedzsmenttudományok részeként a kockázat, jellemzően a várt teljesítménytől való negatív eltérést jelenti (Szász & Demeter, 2017). Az ellátási lánc kockázat forrásának pontosabb megértésére és kezelésére többféle osztályozás létezik (Zsidisin et al., 2000;Svensson, 2002;Johnson, 2001). Az egyes ellátási láncok kockázatának forrása értelmezhető úgy, hogy a kockázatok a vállalat szintjén (azaz a vállalaton belül), vagy a vállalaton kívül (de még az ellátási láncon belül) jelennek meg, valamint az ellátási láncot kívülről fenyegető kockázatokként (Christopher & Peck, 2004). ...
Az elmúlt időszak eseményeinek következtében megnövekedett az érdeklődés az ellátási láncok működése, a kockázatok kezelése iránt. Jelen tanulmányban az élelmiszeripari ellátási láncokkal és az ezekre ható kockázatok természetével foglalkozunk, valamint hozzákapcsoljuk a dinamikus képességek elméletét is. Vizsgálatunk fókuszában hazai élelmiszeripari ellátási lánc downstream szereplői állnak, és interjúk, illetve egyéb belső vállalati dokumentumok felhasználásával kvalitatív kutatásmódszertant követünk. A tanulmány célja, hogy azonosítsa a vállalatok azon dinamikus adottságait, amelyek az ellenálló képesség támogatásával növelik az ellátási láncok ezen képességét. Feltételezésünk szerint az érzékelési képesség és a rugalmasság, valamint a kommunikációs és menedzsment koordinációs készségek kulcsfontosságúak a különböző típusú és erősségű kockázatok, veszélyek kezelésében. A kutatás eredményeképpen megállapíthatjuk, hogy a vizsgált hazai ellátási láncok esetében az érzékelés, az abszorpció és az integratív dinamikus képesség dimenziók egyes képességei várakozáson felül vannak jelen. Viszont az olyan kapcsolati dinamikus képesség dimenzióba tartozó képességek, mint pl. a megszerzett tudás integrálása egy hálózatba, a kockázatmegosztás, a szövetségek megerősítése vagy a reputációs előnyök használata, további fejlődési lehetőséget jelent az ellátási láncok ellenálló képességének növelésére.
... Why the Erratic behavior arises among customers? The erratic behavior (Childerhouse et al., 2008;Johnson, 2001;So & Zheng, 2003;van der Vorst et al., 1998) arises due to unpredictable demand from customers results demand and supply mismatch in the organization (Table 12.1). ...
... In the field of supply chain management literature as a part of management science, risk typically refers to a negative deviation from the expected performance (Szász and Demeter, 2017). There are several classifications to understand and address more specifically the source of supply chain risk (Zsidisin et al., 2000;Svensson, 2002, Johnson, 2001. The source of each supply chain risk can be interpreted as risks occurring at firm level (i.e. ...
There are many examples of increasing risk exposure in supply chains in recent years. The Covid-19 pandemic proved to be a huge challenge in the last two years, and the war in Ukraine is currently creating uncertainty in the food industry. In our study, we specifically identify and examine risks threatening the food supply chains. In addition to classifying risks, we examine the dynamic capabilities that companies need to have when operating in the downstream supply chain processes in order to mitigate these risks. The research uses a qualitative methodology and explores the range of required corporate capabilities through interviews with manufacturers as focal companies of a food supply chain. We hypothesise that sensing capability and flexibility, as well as communication and coordination skills, will be key to managing threats. As a result of our study, we can ascertain that the security of supply chain operations does not only depend on supply chain capabilities.
... It could be caused by the product's distribution disruptions due to transportation constraints (McKinnon, 2006) and by the volatility and unpredictability of the customer demand (Nagurney et al., 2005). Fluctuating demand can be driven by inbound shocks like economic downturn, customers' high bargaining power, seasonality, fashion volatility, new product introductions, or short product life-cycles (Diabat, et al., 2012;Johnson, 2001). They can also be 'vendor-induced', i.e. some marketing activities like sales promotion and order bundling which will enhance demand fluctuations (Paul & Chowdhury, 2021;Taylor & Fearne, 2006). ...
This paper explores the supply chain (SC) disruption impacts to the performance
outcomes of a semiconductor company during the Covid-19 pandemic and proposes
appropriate risk mitigation strategies to overcome the crisis. The research uses a
single case study methodology and 24 SC employees from Belgium and Germany who
take part in the survey. To measure the effect of SC disruptions to the firm’s financial
performance, some quarterly financial statement data are used from 2018 to 2021. The
regression analysis results show that there is no significant impact of SC disruptions to
the firm’s productivity and non-financial performance. The paired samples t-test
suggests that there is no significant change in the firm’s financial performance before
and during Covid-19 either due to the market’s political and economic stability or the
semiconductor company develops effective SC risk management strategies.
... Many analysts have tried to describe and categorize supply chain risks and the strategies to mitigate them. For instance, Johnson (2001) classified the supply chain risks in two categories. Firstly, demand risks, related with seasonal imbalances and the adoption of new products. ...
Supply chain is an important aspect for all the companies and can affect many aspects of companies. Especially the disruption in supply chain is causing huge impacts and consequences that are difficult to deal with. This chapter presents a review of selected multiple criteria problems used in supply chain optimization. Research analyzed the multiple criteria decision-making methods to tackle the problem of supplier evaluation and selection. It also focuses on the problem of supply chain when a disruption happens and presents strategies to deal with the issue of disruptions in supply chain and how to mitigate the impact of disruptions. Prevention, response, protection, and recovery strategies are explained. Practical part is focused in the risk-averse models to minimize expected worst-case scenario by single sourcing. Computational experiments for practical examples have been solved using CPLEX solver.
... Analyzing this equation, we can calculate: exceeding the assumed logistic costs, conflict of logistic goals, conflict of logistics costs, selecting unreliable suppliers, improper use of the material substance of the warehouses, wrong choice of own or third party storage, incorrect determination of safety stock levels, decrease in the value of goods and semi-finished products during storage, incorrect picking system, non-rhythmic production support, developing incorrect concepts of reception and disposition systems and order control, developing an incorrect product distribution strategy, poor positioning of the company in logistics channels, nonrhythmic freight forwarding and increased transport costs, decrease in the value of goods and semi-finished products during transport, logistic and marketing inconsistencies (incorrect response to demand), lost sales costs, incorrect labeling of products, selecting unreliable recipients, an incorrect recycling strategy, downtime and interruptions when receiving goods, inadequate information and physical logistic flows, changes in exchange rates in operating flows (transactional and operational), political and legal changes (e.g. the amount of customs duties, clearance conditions, etc.) and others. Reconfiguration of supply chains in the direction of costoptimal, regionally matching structures, assessing the impact of selected supply chain management instruments on the probability and effects of disruptions in the supply chain, recognizing the interdependencies between the attributes of the supply chain inherent for the use of selected instruments and the assessment of their impact on the probability and the effects of disturbances, establishing the effect of the nature of the product and the demand on the probability of its occurrence disturbances, assessment of the conditions for the use of selected chain management instruments supply in the context of disruptions, establishing the relationship between the use of selected instruments supply chain management, company size, number of suppliers and recipients, the geographic coverage of the supply and distribution network and the frequency of disturbances [42]. ...
The international COVID-19 outbreak at the beginning of 2019 has had a huge influencing factor on lot of global and local manufacturing transportation chains, and triggered a continuous risks of logistics chains breakage by the way the COVID-18 pandemic has revealed the weakness of intercontinental supply chains arising from initial raw material scarcity, mass production and transportation disruption, and human being isolation. Among them, the short-term and medium-term and long-term impacts include encouraging companies to improve the flexibility of supply chains by constructing supply chains digital platforms, supply chains diversification systems and supply chains early warning system in the short, medium and long term, the global supply chains layout will change from internationalization to regionalization, and some high-end manufacturing industries will have a backflow trends. The risks associated with global supply chains management have created a discourse among practitioners and academics. Supply chains risk management is an integral function of the supply chains networks. Supply chains risks management have increasingly becoming a more popular research area recently, when COVID-18 appeared regionally, internationally and globally. In the article there are presented different calculation equations beginning from risk assessment during transportation and finishing by risk modeling, there are important factors influencing logistics and mainly supply chains when different types of risks appeared during COVID-22 transportation time.
... Some examples of cross-sectional testing methods include think-aloud, post-task interviews, and questionnaires. In the toy industry, designers are on a very tight schedule of getting the product to market (Johnson, 2001). This could be the reason for the skewed focus on tests that can be completed within a day. ...
... This period was the initial stage for the exploration of e-commerce [60], which has obvious disruptive innovation characteristics, and most of the application personnel used e-commerce to promote business and release information, including their communication with customers. From the viewpoint of market demand, small commodities are extremely popular, so consumers' demand for sellers were very clear and order volumes relatively stable [61]. From the strategic positioning point of view, the supply of small goods by retailers, was mainly concentrated in the low-end product market, 'fighting the price war' seen as the main way to compete [62]. ...
The prevalence of disruptive innovation practices, enabled by the advancement of digital technologies, has greatly changed the way SMEs innovate and the competitive landscape of today’s retail industry. This study seeks to understand how disruptive innovation has been adopted for the purpose of internationalization across retailing SMEs in Yiwu’s Commodity Market. To answer the research questions, the approach used in this study utilized a qualitative research approach in combination with semi-structured interviews. In this way, the chronology of several phases of Yiwu’s Commodity Market’s development into a global market center is presented, based on analysis of the data. The findings of this study provide an insight into how to facilitate disruptive paths to achieve the internationalization of SMEs through dynamism of the market, strategy positioning, and capability construction. This study contributes to literature on disruptive innovation by providing and testing a model of internationalization mechanisms that SMEs can use to coordinate digital disruptive innovation-related activities. The study also provides insights for policymakers and SMEs in the retail industry about the importance of digital technologies for motivating potential entrepreneurs to pursue new ventures.
... Fourth is ambiguity in data availability because, in retail operations, the point-of-sale data can enhance the demand forecast, ensure shorter lead time and propose better inventory planning (Ibidunni et al., 2020;Johnson, 2001). Yet, all these activities are highly data driven, accompanied by data inaccuracy, affecting the sale volume and poor decision making in the retail operations. ...
Novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) and resulting lockdowns have contributed to major retail operational disturbances around the globe, forcing retail organizations to manage their operations effectively. The impact can be measured as a black swan event (BSE). Therefore, to understand its impact on retail operations and enhance operational performance, the study attempts to evaluate retail operations and develop a decision‐making model for disruptive events in Morocco. The study develops a three‐phase evaluation approach. The approach involves fuzzy logic (to measure the current performance of retail operations), graph theory (to develop an exit strategy for retail operations based on different scenarios), and ANN and random forest‐based prediction model with K‐cross validation (to predict customer retention for retail operations). This methodology is preferred to develop a unique decision‐making model for BSE. From the analysis, the current retail performance index has been computed as “Average” level and the graph‐theoretic approach highlighted the critical attributes of retail operations. Further, the study identified triggering attributes for customer retention using machine learning‐based prediction models (MLBPM) and develops a contactless payment system for customers' safety and hygiene. The framework can be used on a periodic basis to help retail managers to improve their operational performance level for disruptive events.
... It may be caused by disruptions in the distribution of products to customers due to transportation constraints (McKinnon, 2006) and the volatility and unpredictability of customer demand (Nagurney et al., 2005). Fluctuating demand can be driven by inbound shocks like economic downturn, high bargaining power of customers, seasonality, fashion volatility, new product introductions, or short product life-cycles (Johnson, 2001;Diabat, et al., 2012). They can also be 'vendor-induced', i.e. some marketing activities like sales promotion and order bundling which will enhance demand fluctuations (Taylor and Fearne, 2006). ...
This paper explores the impact of supply chain (SC) disruptions on the performance outcomes of a semiconductor company during the Covid-19 pandemic and propose appropriate risk mitigation strategies to overcome this crisis. This research uses a single case study methodology and 24 SC employees in Belgium and Germany took part in a survey. To measure the effect of SC disruptions on the firm's financial performance, quarterly financial statement data was collected from the years 2018 to 2021. The results of the regression analysis show that there is no significant impact of SC disruptions on the firm's productivity and non-financial performance. The paired samples t-test suggests that there is no significant change in the firm's financial performance before and during Covid-19. This may be due to the political and economic stability of Belgium and Germany or the fact that the semiconductor company has developed effective SC risk management strategies to deal with Covid-19.
... • Demand risk: Kumar et al. (2010) defined demand risk as the potential deviations of the forecasted demand from the actual demand. Hence, demand risk is any risk associated with the outbound logistics flows (Svensson 2002), and product demand, which can be caused either by inbound disruptions or, e.g. by seasonality, volatility of fads, new product adoptions, or short product life cycles (Johnson 2001). ...
... Devido à necessidade de interação com o ambiente para acessar recursos críticos, organizações estabelecem relações interorganizacionais (ALDRICH, 1979) para alcançar seus objetivos (WHETTEN; LEUNG, 1979), e nesses contextos a exposição a riscos diversos é ampliada pela dinamicidade das cadeias de suprimentos e instabilidade do mercado (HUO et al., 2020). Apesar de serem mais evidenciados pela literatura os riscos externos (HANDFIELD; MCCORMACK, 2008;HITTLE;LEONARD, 2011;NORRMAN;JANSSON, 2004) e os internos à organização (CHRISTOPHER, 2000;SVENSSON, 2000;JOHNSON, 2001), também há riscos decorrentes da relação com outras organizações, denominados de riscos relacionais (DAS; TENG, 1996; RING; VAN DE VEN, 1992). ...
The Integrated Report (IR) should provide a view of the quality of the relationships that the organization has with its stakeholders and highlight the risks that affect the ability to generate value in the short, medium and long term. In view of this, this study aims to investigate how relational risks are disclosed by companies participating in the RI pilot project in Brazil. For this, RI content analysis of 11 companies participating in the pilot project was carried out. The results showed that although the relational risks have representativeness in the relationship between organizations, they are disclosed in a non-standardized, implicit and dispersed manner throughout the document. When classifying the risks evidenced in the categories of relational risks, the predominance of the disclosure of risks of potential conflict and non-learning was observed. On the other hand, the risk of invasion was not disclosed by any company. To serve the purpose of RI, organizations must make it more understandable about relational risks and ways to mitigate them. Guidance from the International Integrated Reporting Council regarding the disclosure of relational risks by companies can improve the standardization of the information disclosed and the informative power of RI to external users.
Keywords:
Relational Risks; Integrated Reporting; Interorganizational Relations
... Chopra & Sodhi (2004) risk kaynaklarını kesintiler, gecikmeler, sistem, entelektüel katkı, envanter, kapasite, tedarik ve tahmin ana başlıklarıyla ele almışlardır ve her bir risk grubunda yer alabilecek risklerden bahsetmişlerdir. Manuj & Mentzer (2008) riskleri; tedarik, operasyonel, talep, güvenlik, makro, politik, rekabet ve kaynak riskleri olarak sınıflandırmışlardır. Johnson (2001) tedarik zinciri risklerini tedarik ve talep riskleri olmak üzere ikiye ayırmaktadır. Zsidisin vd., (2000) riskleri; tasarım, kalite, maliyet, üretilebilirlik, tedarikçi, yasal, çevre, sağlık ve emniyet, bulunma başlıklarında incelemişlerdir. ...
... Even the supply chain oriented the level of firm, cooperation to produce value during the steps of delivery to customer have to be accepted as a whole process. Johnson, [34] focused to the toy industry and its characteristics about time and supply related issues. Because of the distance between manufacturing and main markets, paper stressed out long transit times and information lags were caused. ...
This study examines the scientific studies on Air Cargo via bibliometric analysis for two decades. The aim of study is determining the intellectual structure of the air cargo focused studies, reveal its evolutionary development in the area and identify the research gaps or topics for further studies may be needed. Dimensions database was used to obtain bibliometric data. “Air Cargo” OR “Air Freight” AND “Supply Chain Management” keyword combination was selected to define the primary focused area. “Commerce, Management and Tourism” or “Transportation and Freight Services” or “Business and Management” sub-categories defined as research content. 492 journal articles were analysed with bibliometric techniques and WosViewer software used for visualization. Analysis indicates that most of citied and majority of published articles had found place on interdisciplinary researches. Studies which are linked to production, management and international supply chain operations got more attention compared to focused solely on air cargo ones. Besides, USA, UK and China were determined as most productive countries and Cranfield University was ranked first among institutions. According to another result, two main clusters were also observed in collaborations between universities/institutions as Eastern and Western settled. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management was determined the leader of journals. Only journal which focused solely aviation research is Journal of Air Transport Management. With rising trend and new developments in both aviation and supply chain management are foreseen that researches in the area will sustain its rising trend in the future. Especially environmental, e-trade, labour and other interdisciplinary issues will need to be examined deeply.
... They determined that supply chain interaction, the training programme of business management, and risk managers' planning are the most influential factors. Johnson (2001) evaluated supply chain risks in the toy manufacturing industry. The outcomes revealed that shipment, warehouses, political risk, the shelf life of products, and the demand risks managers face are the most dominant. ...
As modern healthcare technologies are becoming more and more common, even in rural areas, the usage of various medical equipment is also increasing. The manufacturers of this equipment play a large role in providing timely healthcare by meeting healthcare providers' requirements by fulfilling their demands. As a manufacturer, establishing a strong collaborative supply chain (CSC) is crucial to ensure both the timely receipt of raw materials and the delivery of finished goods. The risks associated with CSCs and their interactions need to be investigated for decision-making in the CSCs. This paper presents a framework, integrated decision-making methodology based on the Delphi method and the grey-based Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique. The Delphi method was applied for identifying the risk based on opinions of the industrial managers in the medical equipment manufacturing industry of India, and then the DEMATEL method was applied to evaluate the interaction among the recognised key risks in CSCs. The findings of the study reveal that disruption risk was the most influential one in CSC. This study will provide more valuable guidelines to policymakers and relevant practitioners about the risks prevailing in the rising nations towards the implementation of CSC practices, which, in turn, can lead to taking necessary steps for mitigating those risks. The proposed framework can address CSC risk and optimise, plan, monitor, and control supply chains in real-time. A sensitivity analysis was performed to analyse the robustness of the obtained results.
... On the demand side, even more cases of referring demand risk to uncertainties, for example, the trend of rapid changes of customer demand and the short life cycle of product resulting in fluctuated demand can be noticed. (Johnson, 2001), defines risk in terms of operational deviations, such as "unpredictable demand, short product life cycle, rapid product turnover and seasonal changes". In the author"s opinion , these should be considered to be the drivers for demand fluctuation. ...
The thesis explores about risk and uncertainty in supply chain network citing in textile industry. Modeling and network validation by considering these risk and uncertainty in supply chain area will improve customer satisfaction, quality of goods, global share and manufacturing capabilities.
... Chopra & Sodhi (2004) risk kaynaklarını kesintiler, gecikmeler, sistem, entelektüel katkı, envanter, kapasite, tedarik ve tahmin ana başlıklarıyla ele almışlardır ve her bir risk grubunda yer alabilecek risklerden bahsetmişlerdir. Manuj & Mentzer (2008) riskleri; tedarik, operasyonel, talep, güvenlik, makro, politik, rekabet ve kaynak riskleri olarak sınıflandırmışlardır. Johnson (2001) tedarik zinciri risklerini tedarik ve talep riskleri olmak üzere ikiye ayırmaktadır. Zsidisin vd., (2000) riskleri; tasarım, kalite, maliyet, üretilebilirlik, tedarikçi, yasal, çevre, sağlık ve emniyet, bulunma başlıklarında incelemişlerdir. ...
Hastaların hastane tercihi uzun yıllardır çalışılan bir konudur. Uzun
yıllardır çalışılsa dahi konuya ilişkin akademisyenlerin bir uzlaşısının
olmadığı görülmektedir. Bunun sebepleri arasında çalışılan olgunun
hastanın özelliklerine, hastanenin özelliklerine, içerisinde yer aldığı
sağlık sisteminin özelliklerine ve zamana göre değişebilmesidir.
Hastane tercihinde önemli görülen hasta özellikleri, hastanın yaşı,
gelir durumu, deneyimi, duyumları, hastalığın türü ve şiddeti olarak
sınıflandırılmaktadır. Hastane özellikleri ise hizmet sunum kalitesi ile
hastanenin konumu, büyüklüğü ve sunduğu hizmet türlerinden
oluşmaktadır. Covid 19 pandemi süresince hastaların hastane
tercihinin değiştiği görülmektedir. Bu değişim hem hastaların ve
hastalık özelliklerinden oluşmakta hem de hastaneye ilişkin bir takım
özelliklerden meydana gelmektedir. Son olarak pandemi koşullarında
zaman zaman şehirlerarası ulaşımın kapatılması veya hastanelerin
pandemi hastanelerin dönüştürülmesi ile hastaların tercihini
etkilemektedir. Bu bölümde genel olarak hastane tercihi kavramını ve
tercih ilişkili değişkenler ele alınacaktır. Son olarak hastaların Covid
19 pandemi sürecinde hastane tercihine olan etkilerinden
bahsedilecektir.
... Identifying and understanding the sources of risk in the supply chain reviewed by Zsidisin et al. (1999), Johnson (2001), and Mason-Jones and Towill (1998). Further more, demand, supply, environment, and process control are important factors in risk sources. ...
... The concept of SC was originated by a bunch of consultants in early 90's (Johnson, 2001). A SC has to manage the flow of a large amount of information and variety of products across all its stages (Prakash, Soni, & Rathore, 2017). ...
Supply Chain (SC) is a process, which passes variety of materials and large amount of information among its several stages. In viewing of modern business environment, SC risks have a noteworthy impact on the continued operations of any business. Despite the risks and uncertainties, the existence of a business seeks to achieve profits and therefore managing those risks has become a key requirement for that. Even though giving prior attention to the risks associated with SC is very important for an apparel manufacturing organisation, the research regarding this concept has received less attention in global context as well as in the Sri Lankan context. Therefore, this paper aims to conduct a Risk Assessment (RA) and investigate the most critical SC risks in Sri Lankan Apparel manufacturing organisations. This study was approached through a multiple case study research method by carrying out five case studies within the apparel industry. The required data was collected through semi- structured interviews and the data analysis was carried out using content analysis together with risk matrix. A comprehensive literature review identified forty SC risk factors of which the level of criticality was measured through case studies. As the findings revealed, the most critical risk factors faced by Sri Lankan Apparel manufacturing organisations are quality issues, maintenance failures, forecasting errors, technological issues, inadequate labour force, performance issues in labour and machinery, health and safety issues of employees, system breakdowns, communication issues, information mismatch, oil crisis, spread of diseases and delivery delays. These supply chain risks should be identified and handled properly in order to enhance supply chain risk management and thus, to improve the business processes in apparel manufacturing organisation without any interruption.
Keywords: Apparel Manufacturing Organisations, Supply Chain Risks, Risk Assessment, Sri Lanka
... Introduction. Consider a make-to-order supply chain involving one supplier producing time-sensitive products, e.g., fashion apparel, or drugs (see, e.g., Johnson [11]), and two customers, e.g., a group of closely located retailers or consumers. ...
We consider integrated scheduling of production and distribution operations associated with two customers (agents). Each customer has a set of orders to be processed on the single production line at a supplier on a competitive basis. The finished orders of the same customer are then packed and delivered to the customer by a third-party logistics (3PL) provider with a limited number of delivery transporters. The number of orders carried in a delivery transporter cannot exceed its delivery capacity. Each transporter incurs a fixed delivery cost regardless of the number of orders it carries, and departs from the 3PL provider to a customer at fixed times. Each customer desires to minimise a certain optimality criterion involving simultaneously the customer service level and the total delivery cost for its orders only. The customer service level for a customer is related to the times when its orders are delivered to it. The problem is to determine a joint schedule of production and distribution to minimise the objective of one customer, while keeping the objective of the other customer at or below a predefined level. Using several optimality criteria to measure the customer service level, we obtain different scenarios that depend on optimality criterion of each customer. For each scenario, we either devise an efficient solution procedure to solve it or demonstrate that such a solution procedure is impossible to exist.
In this third chapter, the most important focus will be on building resilient chains and mitigating risks associated with 3BL implementation. One whole chapter is devoted to this phenomenon, due to the fact that this type of chain strategy is to be part of modeling of sustainable supply chain 2.0. Risk is an extremely important element in the chain and ways to manage it. We have indicated the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine in terms of considering and managing risk. This element is now determining the creation of new strategies and has led to a redefinition not only of supply chain thinking but also of the possibility of implementing defensive tools and mechanisms. A novelty that has not yet been described in the literature will be the description of the new Sustainable Supply Chain Resilience concept that is, the inclusion in a sustainable supply chain strategy of the necessary elements that support, but also cause, a lack of resilience.
Purpose
Inefficiency dilemmas in project governance are caused by various risks arising from the characteristic of construction supply chain projects, such as poor project performance, conflicts between stakeholders and cost overrun. This research aims to establish a fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) model to analyze construction supply chain risk factors. Corresponding risk mitigation strategies are provided to facilitate the improvement performance of ongoing construction supply chain projects.
Design/methodology/approach
A literature review is utilized to reveal the deficiencies of construction supply chain risk management. Thus, a total of five hundred (500) questionnaires are distributed to construction professionals, and four hundred and thirty-five (435) questionnaires are recovered to obtain the evaluation data of construction professionals on critical risk factors. Additionally, the FSE is used to analyze and rank the significance of critical risk factors. Finally, this research discusses nine critical risk factors with high weight in the model, and explains the reason for the significance of critical risk factors in the construction supply chain.
Findings
The questionnaire results show that the thirty-one (31) identified critical risk factors are verified by related practitioners (government departments, universities and research institutions, owners, construction units, financial institutions, design units, consulting firms). Thirty-one (31) identified critical risk factors are divided into common risks, risks from contractors and risks from owners. The most significant factors in the three categories, respectively, are “political risks,” “owner's unprofessional” approach and “cash flow.” Managing these risks can facilitate the development of the construction supply chain.
Originality/value
This paper expands the research perspective of construction supply chain risk management and complements the risks in the construction supply chain. For practitioners, the research result provides some corresponding measures to deal with these risks. For researchers, the research result provides the direction of construction supply chain risk treatment.
This chapter aims to look at the evolution of toys over the years. It looks at different historical periods and the changes that took place in the design and material of toys. This research helps to determine the factors that influence the consumer behaviour of buying toys. The research aims to understand the role of the global pandemic conditions as one of the major factors affecting the purchase and playtime of physical toys. The purpose of the study is to help in bringing back the essence of the actual toys/board games that had lost their charm due to the advent of technology resulting in the invention of games/virtual games for children. Also, the suggested recommendations would aim at bringing improvement in the behaviour of people shifting towards mobile games, as compared to the actual toys. This way, toys will keep playing the role of an educational tool. As education is now moving to a progressive and participatory format, toys play a vital role in the lives of students. This will help us understand how toys become a vital pedagogy tool.
It is never an easy task to govern contemporary food systems and prevent contaminated foods from reaching further down the chains. This study aims to investigate how UK managers in food supply chains have perceived food fraud risk in their supply chain and to identify what their actions could be in response to the threat of food fraud. The study adopts the psychometric paradigm approach to measure risk perception and uses the data collected from 113 UK food practitioners to identify the determinants of their responsive actions. The results highlight that most managers have perceived high uncertainty in the food supply chain and considered the disruption of information flow as a major concern in dealing with food fraud. Therefore, this study suggests that putting effort into practices to improve supply chain visibility and facilitate the flow of information are weighted as important in the food fraud mitigation journey. Policy makers should also make better use of the current quality assurance schemes for proactive food quality control and fraud prevention; government agencies should improve the risk communication systems for trustworthy information dissemination.
O elo de Pós-Venda envolve além dos processos de fluxo físico e lógico dos bens e de scrviços, os dcscartcs c discrcpâncias no ponto dc consumo. Estcs itens podcm ter dcstinos de reciclagem, recondicionamento, reparos ou refugo, podendo retornar ao estoque diretamente ou ser direcionado para algum outro processo intermediário ou definitivo. O presente estudo busca identificar os processos da logística reversa como fator diferencial na melhoria do produto e/ou processo, através do estudo de caso de um “rcc’n//” de grande proporção de “nn ôog.s ” com o propósito de realizar o relato de experiência mediante estudo de caso único. O resultado conduz a importantes reflexões em que o fator custo possui implicações nos resultados da empresa no curto prazo. No entanto, ao longo dos tempos a questão qualitativa constitui-se no elemento que assegura a imagem e a continuidade institucional fundamental que pode diferenciar no longo prazo.
The current literature on resilience planning, especially related to supply chains, rarely considers the difference between intended and actualized behaviors toward mitigation and adaptation actions. However, a potential contributor to taking on supply chain pre-disaster planning tends to be individual and institutional risk perceptions encountered in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) (Ajzen I Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 50:179–211, 1991). The theory suggests that an agent’s intentions to implement mitigation and/or adaptation actions inform their resilience capacity toward a given disaster event that is comparable to data on interruption and recovery post-event.The gist of this chapter hinges on the idea that supply chain management (SCM) has been largely successful in providing a normative framework supporting decisions involved in the design (e.g., plant location, sourcing and procurement, transportation), planning (e.g., demand forecasting, aggregate planning), coordination (e.g., organizational talent, collaboration, and integration), and risk management (e.g., excess capacity, inventory buffers, suppliers diversification); however, the field has largely not addressed the underlying behavioral mechanism that drives an agent’s decision-making process in the specific context of pre-disaster planning (i.e., mitigation) and adaptation decisions. Failing to understand why intention and actualized behavior toward mitigation and adaptation differ is an obstacle to effectively coping with disruption risks and may pose a threat to the resilience of the supply chain given that some mitigation actions aim at building or increasing a firm’s inherent resilience capacity and at improving its ability to adapt to disruptions potentially affecting business continuity. This topic is particularly relevant for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that play a critical role within their communities and do not have resources to incorporate sophisticated business continuity plans or emergency management plans within their risk management frameworks.
At present supply chains are dynamic and interactive in nature which integrates suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and consumers. An important objective of supply chain management is to ensure that each supply chain partner is in the coordination with others so that supply chain potential and enhanced surplus can be realized in sales. In general, this coordination breaks due to distrust, misinformation, poor logistics and transportation infrastructure; however, in specific cases like Covid-19, it arises due to uncertainties caused by various types of risks such as delays and disruptions. During pandemic Covid-19 global supply chains have been distorted badly due to multiple lockdowns and country specific decisions to contain the spread of coronavirus. For dealing with such pandemic situation in future, we have learned and proposed some of the strategies from literature and practice that a supply chain manager can think of to minimize supply chain disruptions during a pandemic. These supply chain strategies include Resilience, Outsourcing/Offshoring, Agility, and Digitalization. For helping in decision making to the practitioners, we have applied Best Worst Method (BWM) to evaluate these strategies during pandemic times and found that Digitalization strategy (0.574) has been most differentiating among the proposed four strategies in a pandemic scenario; whereas, Outsourcing/Offshoring strategy is most hampered/ineffective during such times.
En dépit de leur caractère distribué, les chaînes logistiques peuvent se révéler très performantes dans les conditions idéales de production et d’échange. Toutefois, leur complexité les rend de plus en plus fragiles. Cette thèse propose des modèles et des méthodes pour l’analyse des risques, de façon à renforcer la robustesse et la résilience des chaînes logistiques. Pour nous aider à mieux positionner nos travaux et à tirer les caractéristiques essentielles des chaînes logistiques, nous avons analysé ce domaine suivant une démarche ontologique à l’aide de la méthode KOD. En nous appuyant sur un état de l’art du domaine des risques dans les chaînes logistiques, et sur les bases de cas réels, nous avons identifié les indicateurs des vulnérabilités les plus significatifs. A partir des connaissances extraites, et des modèles mathématiques proposés dans la littérature, nous avons construit un modèle de chaîne logistique multi-étages à l’aide de modèles ARIMA intégrant l’aspect aléatoire de la demande. Pour adapter ce modèle aux situations de vulnérabilité et de risques, nous avons ajouté des contraintes de capacité et de positivité sur les commandes et sur les stocks. Sous l’effet d’événements dangereux, certaines contraintes du système peuvent être atteintes et par conséquence, son évolution peut s’écarter fortement de la dynamique nominale. Nous avons proposé des indicateurs de vulnérabilités comme des indicateurs de fréquence des retards de livraison, ou de surcoût d’immobilisation de produits. Enfin, l’occurrence d’événements dangereux a été représentée par des scénarios. Nous avons alors obtenu des résultats de simulation sous MATLAB, qui nous ont permis d’évaluer leurs conséquences pour différentes configurations du système, en particulier sous perturbation des flux d’informations (demande) et des flux physique (qualité de produits approvisionnés).
This book studies the impact of uncertainty and competition on a firm’s decision-making in the field of operations management. First, I investigate the dynamics of a firm’s decision. Second, I investigate how competition between supply chain players changes the dynamics of a firm’s decisions. I focus on three specific decision areas: (1) capacity planning at the strategic and tactic levels (2) anti-counterfeiting strategies at the tactic level; and (3) risk management for long field-life systems at the operational level. Our main generic research questions are as follows: (a) how should a firm make its capacity investment decisions in a competitive market, considering the changing demand? (b) how can a firm compete against counterfeiters in a global supply chain? (c) how should a firm that purchases parts manage end-of-supply risk of these parts, considering the changing supply and demand?
An interesting study of risk identification related to the recent recession which hit UK in the third quarter of 2008.Recession not only accentuated certain risks already existing in freight transport in the past but also led to the emergence of new ones during and post-recession. This research is thus an attempt to identify and assess the risks faced by freight companies during recession and suggest mitigation strategies to deal with such risks in future. The study reveals that risks related to recession will become more intense in future, however preparedness and tested mitigation strategies can help to lessen or nullify their impact on freight companies.
In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming formulation for the valuation of global manufacturing strategy options with switching costs. Overall, we adopt a hierarchical approach. First, exchange rates are modeled as stochastic diffusion processes that exhibit intercountry correlation. Second, the firm's global manufacturing strategy determines options for alternative product designs as well as supply chain network designs. Product options introduce international supply flexibility. Supply chain network options determine the firm's manufacturing flexibility through production capacity and supply chain network linkages. Third, switching costs determine the cost of operational hedging, i.e., the costs associated with reducing downside risks. Overall, the firm maximizes its expected, discounted, global, after-tax value through the exercise of product and supply chain network options and/or through exploitation of operational flexibility contingent on exchange rate realizations. In this environment, the firm must trade off fixed operating costs, switching costs, and the economic benefits derived from exploiting differentials in factor costs and corporate tax rates. A multinomial approximation of correlated exchange rate processes is proposed that leads to a consistent and tractable lattice model for this compound option valuation problem. We then demonstrate how the global manufacturing strategy planning model framework can be utilized to analyze financial and operational hedging strategies.