Article

Attenuation Relationships for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Based on California Strong Motion Data

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Abstract

Attenuation relationships are presented for peak acceleration and response spectral accelerations from shallow crustal earthquakes. The relationships are based on strong motion data primarily from California earthquakes. Relationships are presented for strike-slip and reverse-faulting earthquakes, rock and deep firm soil deposits, earthquakes of moment magnitude M 4 to 8+, and distances up to 100 km.

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... The new seismic source zones proposed by Charusiri et al. (2005) were used to be the earthquake sources in this study. The models of Sadigh et al. (1997) and Idriss (1993) were applied in the inland earthquakes whereas the Petersen et al. (2004)'s model of the SASZ are considered. For 10% probability of exceedance (POE) in 50 years, the PGA is about 0.25g in northern Thailand, and 0.15g for western Thailand. ...
... Pailoplee et al. (2009) suggested the Kobayashi et al. (2000)'s model. Palasri (in press), then, proposed the model of Sadigh et al. (1997). And finally, Chintanapakdee et al. (2008) proposed the model of Idriss (1993) ...
... The strong ground-motion data are separated into four magnitudes; ranges as the same as for subduction zone earthquakes. Based on the comparison, the strong ground-motion data in all magnitude ranges are compatible with the strong ground-motion attenuation relationship proposed by Idriss (1993) as shown in equation 3 whereas the models proposed by Esteva and Villaverde (1973) and Sadigh et al. (1997) are normally over-estimate (see also Figure 3). Therefore, the model proposed by Idriss (1993) is finally selected to represent the attenuation model of the shallow crustal earthquake in this PSHA. ...
Article
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In this study, the seismic hazards in Thailand are analyzed based on probabilis-tic scenario. Fifty-five possible active fault zones and out of those twenty-one seismic source zones are recognized to be the earthquake sources. The earthquake potential parameters used for SHA are derived from both active fault and earthquake catalogues. The new alternative strong ground-motion attenuation models are selected by comparison of the application of several candidate models with strong ground-motion data recorded in Thailand. For Thailand, there are seismic hazards in areas dominated by active fault zones such as northern, western, and southern Thailand. The PGA values for 50 year in these areas are around 0.5g and 1g for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance, respectively. For Myanmar and Nicobar Islands the PSHA up to 3g in case of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 year according to the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone. Comparing with the previous works this SHA study are higher than those proposed previously. However, this SHA compatible with the past ground shaking reported in the literatures. The SHA presented here is an important step toward an accurate evaluation of seismic hazard in Thailand. Further work is still needed to refine the analysis. More observations of ground motion in the region are needed and further paleo-seismological study should be encouraged.
... In their work, Zhang and Zhao (2005) chose two ground motion attenuation models, viz., Japanese attenuation model and the combination of the Sadigh et al. (1997) and Youngs et al. (1997) models, that are based on a large and reasonably well-balanced dataset. Furthermore, both the models can account for the effects of the earthquake tectonic source type and faulting mechanism. ...
... The value of SD would then be multiplied with a modification factor to account for the effects of the nonlinear soil response. In the present study, the empirical model based on combination of Sadigh et al. (1997) and Youngs et al. (1997) has been implemented in the OpenQuake engine to obtain lateral spread hazard curves for the selected SWCan and SECan sites. Sadigh et al. (1997) and Youngs et al. (1997) models are based on the crustal earthquake events and subduction events, respectively, which is of direct relevance to the tectonic formation SWCan and SECan components of Canada. ...
... In the present study, the empirical model based on combination of Sadigh et al. (1997) and Youngs et al. (1997) has been implemented in the OpenQuake engine to obtain lateral spread hazard curves for the selected SWCan and SECan sites. Sadigh et al. (1997) and Youngs et al. (1997) models are based on the crustal earthquake events and subduction events, respectively, which is of direct relevance to the tectonic formation SWCan and SECan components of Canada. Accordingly, the following expressions proposed by Zhang and Zhao (2005) were embedded in developer version of OpenQuake engine: ...
Article
Significant regions of Canada are seismically active, and areas underlain by loose, saturated sediments in these regions are expected to experience liquefaction-induced lateral spread permanent ground displacements (PGDs) under earthquake shaking. The empirical predictive equations are commonly used for estimating the PGDs especially when detailed numerical analyses are not undertaken. The key input parameters for these equations comprise earthquake magnitude (M) and source distance (R), along with geotechnical and topographic parameters; however, there is ambiguity over choosing appropriate site-specific values of M and R. The current study predicts PGD probabilistic hazard curves that are applicable for locations in South-western and South-eastern regions of Canada using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) framework. This was achieved by embedding two relevant empirical models for predicting lateral spread PGDs (replacing the ground motion prediction equations) within the 2015 National Building Code of Canada framework that is currently available in OpenQuake platform. Moreover, deaggregation analyses have been performed to understand the M and R contributions from different seismic sources on the predicted site-specific hazard. The developed PGD curves can be readily adopted for estimating site-specific lateral spread PGD demand as input to performance-based design of structures in seismically active areas of Canada.
... The 2001 NSHM considered several alternative GMMs all weighted equally. For earthquakes between M5 and 7, the 2001 model considered the following GMMs: for PGA, they applied the Boore et al. (1997), Sadigh et al. (1997), Campbell (1997), and Munson and Thurber (1997); for 0.2-s SA, they used the same suite but excluded the Campbell (1997) equation and applied a factor of 2.2 to the Munson and Thurber (1997) PGA GMM to estimate this high-frequency shaking; and for 1.0-s SA, they used the Boore et al. (1997) and Sadigh et al. (1997) equations. They considered similar models for earthquakes larger than M7: for PGA and 0.2-s SA, they applied the Sadigh et al. (1997) GMM and a modified version of Munson and Thurber (1997) GMM that considered alternative magnitude scaling parameters; for 1.0-s SA, they only used the Sadigh et al. (1997) GMM. ...
... The 2001 NSHM considered several alternative GMMs all weighted equally. For earthquakes between M5 and 7, the 2001 model considered the following GMMs: for PGA, they applied the Boore et al. (1997), Sadigh et al. (1997), Campbell (1997), and Munson and Thurber (1997); for 0.2-s SA, they used the same suite but excluded the Campbell (1997) equation and applied a factor of 2.2 to the Munson and Thurber (1997) PGA GMM to estimate this high-frequency shaking; and for 1.0-s SA, they used the Boore et al. (1997) and Sadigh et al. (1997) equations. They considered similar models for earthquakes larger than M7: for PGA and 0.2-s SA, they applied the Sadigh et al. (1997) GMM and a modified version of Munson and Thurber (1997) GMM that considered alternative magnitude scaling parameters; for 1.0-s SA, they only used the Sadigh et al. (1997) GMM. ...
... For earthquakes between M5 and 7, the 2001 model considered the following GMMs: for PGA, they applied the Boore et al. (1997), Sadigh et al. (1997), Campbell (1997), and Munson and Thurber (1997); for 0.2-s SA, they used the same suite but excluded the Campbell (1997) equation and applied a factor of 2.2 to the Munson and Thurber (1997) PGA GMM to estimate this high-frequency shaking; and for 1.0-s SA, they used the Boore et al. (1997) and Sadigh et al. (1997) equations. They considered similar models for earthquakes larger than M7: for PGA and 0.2-s SA, they applied the Sadigh et al. (1997) GMM and a modified version of Munson and Thurber (1997) GMM that considered alternative magnitude scaling parameters; for 1.0-s SA, they only used the Sadigh et al. (1997) GMM. For deep earthquakes, they applied the subduction zone GMM of Youngs et al. (1997). ...
Article
The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude criteria that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model that accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historical seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are calculated using western US and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for 8 site classes. For most sites the new analysis results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are the highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai’i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.
... C. Sadigh et al. 1997 [14] Attenuation relationship This attenuation relationship includes a large set of earthquakes occurred throughout the world including Tabas, Iran (1978). In this relationship, the scale of magnitude is M, and its range is 4<Ms<8+. ...
... C. Sadigh et al. 1997 [14] Attenuation relationship This attenuation relationship includes a large set of earthquakes occurred throughout the world including Tabas, Iran (1978). In this relationship, the scale of magnitude is M, and its range is 4<Ms<8+. ...
... Where ZT is an indicator variable taking the value 1 for reverse events and 0 for strike slip events. PGA= Peak Ground Acceleration, M=Surface Wave Magnitude, 1 2 3 4 6 , , , , C C C C C = constant coefficients from table [14]. ...
Conference Paper
In this study probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is carried out for Rasht province, a city located in IRAN, and assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for two levels of hazard are presented. Achieving this goal, seismic catalogues of all historical instrumentally recorded earthquakes since 4 th century BC up to 2018, in a radius of 200 km around Rasht city, has been gathered and processed for elimination of the aftershocks and foreshocks from main occurrences list and then the seismicity parameters have been obtained by Kijko [2000] method. In order to determine the PGA over bedrock, tree different attenuation relationships of Sadigh et al. [1997], Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008] and also Boore and Atkinson [2008] relationships have been used. This tree relationships have been combined by logic tree with weighted coefficients of 0.25, 0.35 and 0.4 respectively. Seismic hazard analysis is then carried out for Rasht city by using software R-Crisis V18.4.2 by Ordez (Instituto de Ingenierı ´a, UNAM, Mexico, 2018). R-Crisis offers many advantages at different stages of PSHA. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and horizontal spectral accelerations maps were provided for 2% and 10% levels of exceedance (PE) in 50 years for bedrock.  Keywords-seismic hazard analysis, uniform hazard spectrum, seismicity parameters, R-Crisis, Rasht province.
... However, the DSH does not well cover the whole area of the western Saudi Arabia peninsula. Owing to no ground motion distance attenuation relationships developed specifically for Saudi Arabia, several different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were used in regions where no strong ground motion records were available (e.g., Thenhaus et al. 1989;Fukushima and Tanaka 1990;Sadigh et al. 1997;Skarlatoudis et al. 2004;Pankow and Pechmann 2004;Ambraseys et al. 2005;Atkinson and Boore 2006;Zhao et al. 2006;Akkar et al. 2014). Recently, a regional GMPE was established by Kiuchi et al. (2019) for western Saudi Arabia. ...
... The influence of the focal mechanisms on the predictive attenuation relationships of the ground motion has been mentioned and discussed in many studies (e.g., Campbell 1984Campbell , 1997Sadigh et al. 1997;Boore et al. 1997;Anooshehpoor and Brune 2002;Kiuchi et al. 2019). These studies revealed that PGAs released from trust source mechanisms tend to be higher than other source mechanisms. ...
... There are some Fig. 7 A comparison between several GMPEs from different areas and the GMPE derived in the present study, revealing that the present GMPE is capable of predicting ground motions from future large earthquakes. The GMPE models are abbreviated as THEN for the Eastern United States and the Mississippi Valley (Thenhaus et al. 1989), FT for Japan (Fukushima and Tanaka 1990), SAD for California (Sadigh et al. 1997), SKA for Greece (Skarlatoudis et al. 2004), AM for Europe and the Middle East (Ambraseys et al. 2005), AB for Europe and the Middle East (Akkar and Bommer 2010), and KIK for western Saudi Arabia (Kiuchi et al. 2019) factors that may probably cause the difference between two predictive relations due to the multiple different steps followed in the processing and regression analysis, the different data sets used in the two studies, and the influence of source mechanisms that were not accounted for in this study. However, our predictive relationship shows good agreement with the observed PGA values of the 2014 earthquake, as opposed to that derived by Kiuchi et al. (2019), which means that our relationship is capable of predicting the ground motions of future earthquakes in this region. ...
Article
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In this study, attenuation relationships are proposed to more accurately predict ground motions in the southernmost part of the Arabian Shield in the Jazan Region of Saudi Arabia. A data set composed of 72 earthquakes, with normal to strike-slip focal mechanisms over a local magnitude range of 2.0–5.1 and a distance range of 5–200 km, was used to investigate the predictive attenuation relationship of the peak ground motion as a function of the hypocentral distance and local magnitude. To obtain the space parameters of the empirical relationships, non-linear regression was performed over a hypocentral distance range of 4–200 km. The means of 638 peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) values calculated from the records of the horizontal components were used to derive the predictive relationships of the earthquake ground motions. The relationships accounted for the site-correlation coefficient but not for the earthquake source implications. The derived predictive attenuation relationships for PGV and PGA are $$ {\log}_{10}(PGV)=-1.05+0.65\cdotp {M}_L-0.66\cdotp {\log}_{10}(r)-0.04\cdotp r, $$ log 10 PGV = − 1.05 + 0.65 · M L − 0.66 · log 10 r − 0.04 · r , $$ {\log}_{10}(PGA)=-1.36+0.85\cdotp {M}_L-0.85\cdotp {\log}_{10}(r)-0.005\cdotp r, $$ log 10 PGA = − 1.36 + 0.85 · M L − 0.85 · log 10 r − 0.005 · r , respectively. These new relationships were compared to the grand-motion prediction equation published for western Saudi Arabia and indicate good agreement with the only data set of observed ground motions available for an M L 4.9 earthquake that occurred in 2014 in southwestern Saudi Arabia, implying that the developed relationship can be used to generate earthquake shaking maps within a few minutes of the event based on prior information on magnitudes and hypocentral distances taking into considerations the local site characteristics.
... Neste estudo de caso foram consideradas as seguintes leis de atenuação para sismos de subducção: Youngs et al. (1997), Zhao et al. (2006) e BC Hydro (2016, e para os sismos continentais as leis de atenuação propostas por Sadigh et al. (1997) e Atkinson e Boore. (2003). ...
... Para reduzir as incertezas epistêmicas, foi empregada a metodologia da árvore lógica, considerando fatores de ponderação para as leis de atenuação associadas às fontes sismogênicas de subducção e continentais. Foram atribuídos o peso 0.32 para as GMPE de Youngs et al (1997) e Zhao et al (2006, peso 0.16 para BC Hydro (2016), peso 0.12 para Sadigh et al. (1997) e peso 0.08 para Atkinson e Boore (2003) na árvore lógica apresentada na Fig. 2. Figura 2. Esquema da árvore lógica para as leis de atenuação ...
... For studies focusing on urbanized areas, the traditional resolution is too coarse. GMPE parameter vs. distance curves (e.g., Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990;Sadigh et al., 1997;Chiou and Youngs, 2008) show ground motion values dropping by an order of magnitude within less than 100 km. This steep drop in ground motion underscores the importance of increasing model accuracy at a scale finer than tens of kilometers. ...
... Furthermore, the attenuation curves of this study match those of other PGA equations identified by Allen et al. (2014) to be reliable for use in the Philippines. The other equations (i.e., Boore and Atkinson, 2008;Chiou and Youngs, 2008;Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990;Sadigh et al., 1997) were not used because they require site condition data types that are not available for the study area. The equation used from Kanno et al. (2006) is: ...
Article
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The heavily populated Cebu Island is cut by the Central Cebu Fault System (CCFS). While the CCFS has not produced any MW > 5.0 earthquakes in the past century, recent strong earthquakes in the adjacent islands have brought attention to the seismic hazards in the region. Fault properties such as strike, dip, slip direction, and surface trace length were determined based on literature review, fieldwork, and analysis of geomorphic features. Empirical relations were utilized to estimate down-dip width and magnitude. The gathered data were used to create a three-dimensional model of the four major faults in the CCFS: Balamban Fault, Central Highland Fault, Uling-Masaba Fault, and Lutac-Jaclupan Fault. The 3D model was used to generate peak ground acceleration maps of central Cebu, should an earthquake occur along any of the major faults. Site corrections were made based on the seismic velocity of the upper 30 meters of the subsurface. The major faults are estimated to be capable of generating MW 6.4 to 7.1 earthquakes. Worst-case scenarios in densely populated areas show 0.40 to 0.70 g of PGA, suggesting the potential for severe damage in central Cebu. We explored the advantages of using raster mathematics in a GIS platform for calculating and presenting ground motion. These advantages include rapid calculations for tens of millions of points, reducing the effects of interpolation artifacts in final map products. This study emphasizes the importance of detailed structural, geological, and geomorphological data in modeling seismic hazards. Further investigations on the seismogenesis of the CCFS segments are recommended.
... To analyze the ANN and ANFIS applications, the Karaburun earthquake was used as test data to estimate PGA values for all site types. The GMPEs proposed are from Ambraseys et al. [1996], Sadigh et al. [1997], Lussou et al. [2001], Berge-Thierry et al. [2003], Kalkan and Gülkan [2004], and Akyol and Karagöz [2009]. GMPEs from Ambraseys et al. [1996] were derived from Europe, Middle ...
... East database that lower limit of magnitude is equal to 4.0, last 200 km for distance, and use four site conditions at first but retain three. The second model was proposed by Sadigh et al. [1997]. It is the same as Ambraseys et al. ...
Article
An attenuation relationship model belonging to a region with a high earthquake hazard is important. It is used for engineering studies to know how the peak ground acceleration (PGA) value depends on the distance where there are no stations. This study used earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 4 that IzmirNET recorded between 2009 and 2017 to determine the PGA through an artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which are widely applied in engineering seismology studies. For this purpose, 2925 records from 62 earthquakes were analysed in the ANN and ANFIS applications. Magnitude, focal depth, hypocentral distance (Rhyp), and site conditions comprise the inputs, and PGA values are the outputs. Using the Karaburun earthquake, we compared the ANN and ANFIS models using different ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) and the appropriate criteria. We determined the proximate values to PGA values measured at IzmirNET stations of the Karaburun earthquake, which was M = 6.2 in 2017, were used to test the ANN and ANFIS. The results were examined and indicated that the ANN and ANFIS are good candidates for obtaining PGA values for future earthquakes in the studied area. In addition, the PGA values of subsequent earthquakes can be calculated more quickly without any preliminary evaluation using an ANN and ANFIS.
... A logic tree approach was used to combine their effects with an equal weight given to each of the GMPEs as shown in Fig. 8. In the present work, six GMPEs were chosen as proposed by (1) Abrahamson and Silva (1997), (2) Sadigh et al. (1997), (3) Campbell (2003), (4) Atkinson and Boore (2006), (5) Raghukanth and Iyengar (2007), and (6) Iyengar et al. (2010). ...
... Atkinson and Boore (2006) developed a GMPE for crustal intra-plate earthquakes for eastern North America. Sadigh et al. (1997) proposed a GMPE for the California region for shallow crustal earthquakes. A study conducted by Cramer and Kumar (2003) revealed that the attenuation of ground motion of peninsular India and eastern North America is similar. ...
Article
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The Indian peninsular region has witnessed moderate to large earthquakes in the recent past. The present work demonstrates probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at the bedrock level using six ground-motion prediction equations with a logic tree approach considering Odisha state as a case study. Regional rupture characteristics are established for the tectonic features of the study region. Uniform hazard response spectra are computed for district places. Seismic hazard results are disaggregated for Bhubaneswar, the capital city of Odisha. The results have shown the distribution of seismicity in the state is not in sync with the seismic zone map provided by the Indian code.
... They usually occur on mid-ocean ridges and along transform faults, whereas medium and deep focused earthquakes occur along dissipation zones. For these shallow earthquakes the acceleration values were acquired using the attenuation relations determined by Boore et al. (1997), Campbell 1997, and Sadigh et al. (1997) to calculate horizontal peak acceleration, and then average of these three values was used. The attention relations from Boore et al. (1997) and Sadigh et al. (1997) were used to calculate the Ss and S 1 spectral acceleration parameters, and the average of these two values was taken as the spectral acceleration parameter. ...
... For these shallow earthquakes the acceleration values were acquired using the attenuation relations determined by Boore et al. (1997), Campbell 1997, and Sadigh et al. (1997) to calculate horizontal peak acceleration, and then average of these three values was used. The attention relations from Boore et al. (1997) and Sadigh et al. (1997) were used to calculate the Ss and S 1 spectral acceleration parameters, and the average of these two values was taken as the spectral acceleration parameter. ...
Conference Paper
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In this study, the earthquake hazard of the Old City Districts of Istanbul (Fatih and Eminonu) was probabilistically defined. Then, for a building lifetime of 50 years, the acceleration parameters of earthquake ground motions, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, spectral acceleration values of 0.2 sec and 1 sec were obtained on the bedrock level according to 10% and 40% exceedance. The results of the analysis showed that in the region of 10% probability of exceedance the peak bedrock acceleration values ranged from 0.30g to 0.40g, for the 40% exceedance probability the acceleration values ranged from 0.22g to 0.17g. The S s 10% exceedance probability calculated according to the spectral acceleration parameter ranged from 0.67g to 0.85g, the spectral acceleration parameter S 1 varied between 0.22 g-0.28g. The S s 40% exceedance probability calculated according to the spectral acceleration parameter ranged from 0.46 g to 0.38g and the spectral acceleration parameter S 1 varied from 0.12 g to 0.14 g. For the analysis the study zone was divided into 307 cells of 250 x 250m with the help of geographical information systems, and these cells were used in the mapping of all the data obtained.
... An evaluation of published GMPEs to crustal earthquakes in the Philippines was originally part of the 2014 PHIVOLCS-Geoscience Australia Risk Analysis for the Philippines project, a hazard and risk analysis for the Greater Metro Manila Area (RAP; Allen et al., 2014). The RAP project performed a residual analysis of ground motion data collected by the Philippine seismic network (PSN) to eight GMPEs, deeming Boore and Atkinson (2008), Chiou and Youngs (2008), Fukushima and Tanaka (1990), and Sadigh et al. (1997) the most suitable for source-to-site distances \60 km. This procedure is described in detail in Supplemental Appendix B. ...
... Exclusion criteria based on Bommer et al. (2010) were applied to eliminate GMPEs that do not compute spectral accelerations (SAs), are defined for magnitude types other than M w , do not cover the magnitude range in the source model, or require parameters that are unavailable and difficult to estimate. These eliminated two of RAP project's original recommendations: Fukushima and Tanaka (1990) and Sadigh et al. (1997). ...
Conference Paper
A recently developed probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Metro Manila employing a shear wave velocity model of the upper 30 meters of soil layer (Vs30), utilizing the latest seismic hazard analysis tool and newly improved ground motion prediction models for active shallow crust and subducting slabs will be presented. Considered in the study were the seismic source models characterized using historical earthquakes and instrumental seismic records, latest active faults parameters, paleo-seismic studies and global positioning system ground deformation monitoring results in the 300-km radius encompassing the metropolis. The West Valley Fault, being the closest and dominant seismic source, delimited the most conservative ground shaking intensity measure that may be experienced in this study area at any significant return period. Site response calculation results at 10%, 5% and 2% probability of exceedances in 50 years is compared with the recommended design response spectrum in the latest editions of the National Structural Code of the Philippines (NSCP, 2010, 2015).
... In order to determine the seismic response of the ground in a given place produced by a seismic event in a specific source, the attenuation laws are used. In Peru, several attenuation laws have been used, prepared with seismic records from Peru and other countries; a large number of these were analyzed by [25] who concluded that, among all the attenuation laws analyzed, they are those of Youngs et al. [26] and Sadigh et al. [27] which yielded average results of acceleration values and that these are consistent with tectonics and seismotectonics in Peru. Therefore, in order to determine the seismic response in Ayacucho city, the attenuation laws of Youngs et al. for subduction earthquakes and those of Sadigh et al. for continental earthquakes are used. ...
Article
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El Perú es uno de los países más expuestos a eventos catastróficos a nivel mundial como: inundaciones, flujo de escombros, tsunamis, terremotos. Particularmente, los terremotos son generados por la interacción de las placas de Nazca y Sudamérica conocida como proceso de subducción y de fallas poco profundas. Asimismo, otro gran problema que atraviesa el Perú es la informalidad en la construcción, que sumado a un gran terremoto, podría traer consigo grandes pérdidas económicas y vidas humanas. Por tanto, estos problemas han motivado el desarrollo de esta investigación, que tiene como objetivo evaluar el riesgo sísmico de edificaciones en el distrito de Ayacucho - Perú. En este sentido, la amenaza sísmica probabilística se evalúa mediante el programa R-CRISIS, acompañado de estudios geofísicos como MASW (Análisis Multicanal de Ondas Superficiales) que permiten caracterizar el suelo a partir de velocidades de ondas de corte. Además, la vulnerabilidad sísmica de las edificaciones se evalúa mediante el método del índice de vulnerabilidad, el cual se basa en once parámetros esenciales que caracterizan la susceptibilidad de las edificaciones a sufrir daños tras la ocurrencia de un terremoto. Finalmente, la evaluación del riesgo sísmico se realiza mediante el uso de funciones de vulnerabilidad y los resultados se reflejan en mapas representativos para diferentes escenarios sísmicos, que se elaboran utilizando los Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG). Los resultados muestran grandes pérdidas económicas y vidas humanas que se producirían por diferentes intensidades sísmicas en el distrito de Ayacucho. Además, más del 50% de los edificios podrían sufrir daños fuertes o severos durante la ocurrencia de un terremoto raro cuyo período de retorno es de 475 años.
... In the said study, eight (8) ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were used. The number of GMPEs was later narrowed to [6], [7], [8], and [9] based on the method of residuals. In this study, the GMPE by Boore & Atkinson (BA08) [6] will be used. ...
Article
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Quezon City is traversed by the West Valley Fault System (WVFS) that has the capability of generating a magnitude 7.2 earthquake known as “The Big One”. It has an extensive water distribution network that is very susceptible to damages that will be caused by the ground shaking component of the M 7.2 earthquake. This study focuses on determining the behavior and estimating the damage of underground polyvinyl chloride (PVC) water pipes due to the M 7.2 earthquake by using appropriate empirical repair rates (RR) and developing fragility curves. The appropriate empirical RR equation was determined by comparing the results of selected PVC RR equations and the simulation using line-element modeling. The PGV ranges from 23.10 cm/s to 64.49 cm/s as determined using the Boore and Atkinson (2008) ground motion prediction equation. Using the results from the empirical and simulations methods, the equation by the American Lifelines Alliance (2001) was determined to be the appropriate empirical RR equation for the study area. The expected average repair rate of PVC is 0.05 repairs/km length of pipe or an estimated 84 total PVC pipe repairs in the city. Three fragility curves were generated showing the relationship of PGV and RR which is an important tool in estimating the underground pipe damages with respect to the M 7.2 earthquake and other future earthquakes of similar properties.
... Sampai sekarang, belum tersedia fungsi atenuasi yang diturunkan berdasarkan data -data gempabumi di wilayah Jawa. Fungsi atenuasi yang dipergunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Boore -Atkinson NGA (Boore dan Atkinson, 2006) dan Sadigh (Sadigh et al., 1997) untuk gempabumi yang bersumber pada sesar di darat, serta Geomatrix subduction dan Atkinson -Boore BC (Atkinson dan Boore, 2003) untuk gempabumi yang bersumber pada subduksi, baik sumber gempabumi megathrust maupun benioff. ...
Conference Paper
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Wilayah perairan pesisir diketahui sangat rentan terkena dampak dari pencemaran lingkungan baik darihulu maupun daerah aliran sungai di sekitarnya, melalui aliran sungai yang terakumulasi di wilayahestuaria perairan Pesisir Utara Kecamatan Sekotong dan Gerung, Lombok Barat. Tujuan penelitian iniialah menilai kulaitas air secara umum dan membandingkan kualitas air yang berada di pesisir tertutupdan terbuka di wilayah pesisir Sekotong, Lombok Barat. Penelitian ini dilakukan di pesisir utaraKecamatan Sekotong dan Gerung, khususnya pada Teluk Lembar dengan perairan tertutup dan muaraSungai Dodokan dengan perairan terbuka langsung menuju Selat Lombok yang dipengaruhi aktivitasyang ada dalam satuan daerah aliran sungai/DAS.Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis citra Landsat 8 OLI dengan ekstraksi suhu dan klorofila dilaboratorium dan pengukuran langsung di lapangan serta mengumpulkan berbagai sampel untukpengujian hasil interpretasi pada citra penginderaan jauh yang diintegrasikan dengan Sistem InformasiGeografis. Penilaian kualitas air pada perairan pesisir utara Kecamatan Sekotong dan Gerung inimenggunakan 6 parameter sebagai dasar penentuan terhadap kualitas perairan di pesisir ini yaitu Suhu,Total Suspended Solid (TSS), Klorofila,pH, Salinitas, dan Oksigen Terlarut (DO).Hasil pengolahan citra sebagai model untuk penentuan titik sampel di lapangan dan hasil lapangan akandianalisis menggunakan regresi linear sederhana dengan hasil pengolahan melalui citra penginderaanjauh. Penelitian ini menghasilkan peta kesesuaian perairan untuk biota laut di Muara Sungai Dodokandan Kelep. Kualitas perairan Muara Sungai Dodokan sesuai untuk perikanan laut, sementara Muara Sungai Kelep sesuai untuk biota laut seperti coral, lamun, mangrove, dan perikanan laut. KATA KUNCI: Muara Sungai Kelep dan Dodokan, Kualitas Air, Landsat 8, SIG.
... The SOF parameter is dependent on magnitude for ASK14, whereas the SOF parameter of BSSA14 is magnitude independent. In GK15, the SOF parameter is adapted from Sadigh et al. [26], which is also magnitude independent. ASK14 contains an explicit functional form for hanging-wall sites and a rupture depth term. ...
Article
We systematically evaluate data sets, functional forms, independent parameters of estimation and resulting ground motion predictions (as median and aleatory variability) of the Graizer-Kalkan (2015, 2016; hereafter referred to as GK15) ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) with the next generation of attenuation project (NGA-West2) models of Abrahamson et al. (2014; abbreviated as ASK14) and Boore et al. (2014; abbreviated as BSSA14) for application to earthquakes in California. This evaluation is performed in three stages: (1) by comparing attenuation, magnitude scaling, style-of-faulting (SOF) effects, site response, response-spectral shape and amplitude, and standard deviations, (2) by comparing median predictions, standard deviations and analyses of residuals with respect to near-field (within 20 km of the fault) and intermediate-field (50 to 70 km of the fault) records from major earthquakes in California, and (3) by comparing total, intra- and inter-event residual distributions among the GMPEs with respect to near-source—within 80 km of the fault—subset of the NGA-West2 database covering 975 ground motions from 73 events in California ranging from moment magnitude 5 to 7.36. The results reveal that the scaling features of the GK15 and the ASK14 and BSSA14 GMPEs are, in general, similar in terms of distance attenuation but differ in terms of scaling with magnitude, style of faulting and site effects. The original standard deviations of GMPEs are also different. For the near-source California subset, three GMPEs result in standard deviations close to each other. The mixed-effect residuals analysis shows that the GK15 has no perceptible trend with respect to the independent predictors.
... As equações de previsão do movimento do terreno (Ground Motion Predicion Equations -GMPE), podem ser clasificadas segum o tipo da fonte sismogênica. No estudo de ameaça sísmica probabilística no território do Peru foram consideradas as leis de atenuaçãode Youngs et al. (1997),Zhao et al. (2006) e Abrahamson (2016), que diferenciam os mecanismos focais para terremotos de subducção de interface e de intraplaca, e as leis de atenuação propostas porSadigh et al. (1997), Chiou e Robert Youngs (2014), Campbell e Bozorgnia (2014) e Abrahamson et al. (2014) para terremotos continentais. ...
... The first set of seismic sources comprised four area-type sources of spatially uniform seismicity, whereas the second set considered the total seismicity in each area source to be associated with a selected single fault in the source zone. The three GMPEs used are from Abrahamson and Silva, 30 Sadigh et al., 31 and Boore and Atkinson. 32 The bedrock-level uniform hazard response spectra at 449 sites throughout the NCT area at which detailed geotechnical investigations had been carried out to define the soil columns were used to generate compatible acceleration time-histories, which were then propagated to the surface using 1D shear wave propagation with an equivalent linear method of solution. ...
Article
We present seismic microzonation maps of New Delhi, India, using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method with input seismic activity parameters estimated in Part‐I of this two‐part paper. Our calculations required three different attenuation equations for amplitude scaling of strong ground motion from three principal contributing sources: the National Capital Region (NCR), Northwestern Himalaya (NWH), and the Hindu Kush subduction (HKS). We show that uniform hazard spectral (UHS) amplitudes are dominated only by the local seismicity in the NCR at high frequencies beyond about 2 Hz. For intermediate and long periods, UHS amplitudes are dominated by contributions from the NWH and HKS earthquakes. Our results show that specifying strong motion amplitudes for use in engineering design by means of peak ground acceleration can lead to serious errors for buildings higher than four to five stories and hence should not be used. Our results also show that the shape of design spectra must depend on the nature of contributing earthquake sources, their relative activity, potential to create large magnitudes, and geographical placement relative to the site of interest, and thus a standard design‐spectrum shape cannot satisfy all these requirements. We use local geological site condition parameters directly in all calculations and present hazard maps for three different soil site conditions (“rock,” stiff soil sites, and deep soil sites). Thus, the user can extract the UHS amplitudes of pseudo relative velocity spectra at any site in the National Capital Territory by experimentally determining the local soil site conditions and then applying the corresponding maps shown in this paper. Seismic microzonation map showing the Uniform Hazard Spectra of Pseudo Relative Velocity (PSV) at 13 periods in the New Delhi metropolitan area, in India, at “rock” soil sites, = 0, for 10% probability of being exceeded during exposure of 50 years.
... The three seismic parameters have been subsequently applied to evaluate earthquake potentials for individual seismic zones. In this study the strong ground motion attenuation model of Sadigh et al. [49] have been used as suggested by Chintanapakdee et al. [50]. Using this attenuation model, the seismic hazards were evaluated with regard to peak ground acceleration (PGA) without the possibility of earthquake occurrence. ...
Article
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In both Thailand and Laos seismic hazards have been classified as the low-lying region of mainland Southeast Asia. Nevertheless in recent times few intermediate and large earthquakes have taken place until recently. Therefore our prime objective is to characterize seismic hazards in Thailand and Lao PDR (or Laos) by utilizing geologic fault and most update seismic data. We identified more than 60 active faults using remote sensing, morpho-tectonic, paleoseismic trenching, and quaternary dating information from the current and previous studies. At least six seismic source zones have been utilized based upon the most recent geologic, tectonic, and seismicity data. Earthquake catalogues from various sources have been determined, registered, and filtered. Strong ground motion attenuation model have been selected by comparing several well-accepted published models with strong ground motion recorded in both Thailand and Laos. Seismic hazard analysis (SHA) can be performeded by using 2 methods: deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). DHSA has been adopted for the designs of critical construction and PSHA has been acquired for the noncritical construction. The established SHA maps by this two methods can be carried out by applying past earthquake events and new active fault data.. The DSHA map displays possible ground shaking up to 0.35 g in northern and western Thailand and up to 0.4 g in northwestern Laos, whereas the ground shaking computed from the PSHA approach is <0.3 g in northern Thailand and <0.32 g in Laos for 2 % probability of exceedance in the next 50 yrs and roughly become higher in the northern part of both countries. The DSHA map reveals relatively high hazard level in areas of central and northwestern Laos as well as northern and western Thailand, medium hazard level in northeastern Laos and southern Thailand, and low hazard level in southern Laos as well as central and eastern Thailand. The PSHA map generally displays seismic hazard distribution almost similar to that of the DSHA map but with comparatively lower hazard levels. Paleoseismic investigations are quite essential for defining seismotectonic faults, new seismic source zones, and hazard level. It is also believed that several fault lines may have occurred within the weak and major crustal structures. Effective mitigation plan to reduce impact of seismic hazard is, therefore, formulated urgently and in many major cities located in northern and western Thailand as well as in northwestern and central Laos.
... There has been sufficient research on GMPEs. Due to the limited amount of reliable strong motion data, GMPEs in the early days only considered the magnitude and distance terms and divided the site roughly into rock and soil categories [1][2][3]. Kowsari et al. [4,5] recalibrated the ground motion models (GMMs) to the dataset using Bayesian regression and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations which allow limited strong motion data to be combined with the prior information, and can well overcome sparse data in the research region. With the improvement of regression methods [6,7] and the accumulation of strong motion recordings, GMPEs gradually considered the influence of style-of-faulting, hanging-wall effect, or linear and nonlinear site response [8][9][10][11]. ...
Article
In this paper, we collect and process free-field strong motion recordings from 70 earthquakes for 4.2 ≤ MW ≤ 7.9 at 0 < Rrup < 300 km between 2008 and 2018 in the active tectonic regions of southwest China, and then establish a dataset containing 1324 average horizontal ground motion (ROTD50) and corresponding metadata such as parameters of the earthquake source, distance, and site. A new ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the average horizontal component of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5% damped acceleration response spectra at periods ranging from 0.033 to 8.0 s (SA (T = 0.033–8.0 s)) is introduced. This GMPE considers multiple influencing factors such as magnitude and distance saturation effect, geometric attenuation, style-of-faulting, hanging-wall effect, linear/nonlinear site response, and anelastic attenuation. The residual evaluation and median ground motion are presented. The predicted ground motions using the new GMPE are compared with predictions from the GMPE in western China and five NGA-West2 GMPEs, and the observed ground motions of strong earthquakes which occurred in southwest China. The results show that the proposed GMPE can better reflect the influence of the earthquake source characteristic, propagation media, site effect on the ground motion attenuation characteristic in southwest China, and works well versus independent strong motion data of earthquakes in southwest China, and well reflects the general feature of ground motions for the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes that is rich at short-period and weak at long-period. The new GMPE shows outstanding performance estimating the horizontal ground motion of the earthquakes in southwest China for MW 4.2–7.9 (related to style-of-faulting) and Rrup = 10–200 km, at sites with VS30 = 140–1130 m/s.
... faster) than what is used in California by WC06, because California rocks are known to have low seismic velocities due to weathering. This was discovered in the course of the NGA-West project (Chiou and Youngs, 2008), in which the Sadigh et al. (1997) GMM for rock sites was found to represent an average V S30 of 520 m/ s, much lower than the notional value of 760 m/s. Much of southern Alaska was glaciated (Kaufman et al., 2011) so we expect bedrock to be less weathered due to glacial scour and Quaternary formations to often be gravels rather than sands and soils due to glacial scour, although glacial scour also produces very soft fine-grained sediments including clays. ...
Article
The Alaska Regional Network and Transportable Array provide an invaluable waveform data set for studying ground motions in Alaska. However, the data set is useful only after the site effects at each station are well understood. Considering the large number of stations associated with these networks, it would be onerous to measure the sub-surface velocity structure beneath every station using geophysical exploration techniques involving arrays, such as active-source or passive-source non-invasive array methods. Instead, it is more economical to estimate the site conditions using waveforms recorded at the seismic stations. Most of the methods for estimating site response from recorded waveforms use the frequency-dependent ratio between the horizontal and vertical component of either ambient noise or S waves from earthquakes. We instead use the horizontal and vertical component of P waves to infer the sub-surface velocity structure. It has been demonstrated that the ratio of radial to vertical P waves is mostly sensitive to sub-surface shear velocity. Therefore, the sub-surface velocity structure can be estimated using an approach similar to teleseismic P receiver functions, but at much smaller scale and higher frequency. The results from this method are in good agreement with results from active-source or passive-source non-invasive array methods and have been widely used in the Central Eastern United States. The Alaska Regional Network and Transportable Array have recorded numerous earthquakes in the magnitude range of interest and at shallow depth, which provides an ideal opportunity for this study. V S 30 is used to represent the site amplification of ground motions in all ground motion models that are used in generating the US Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Maps, as well as in the professional practice of seismic hazard analysis. The results of this work provide a basis for improved site-specific hazard estimates in Alaska.
... In addition, with inclusion of a ground's intensity measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA, amax) is employed in the present study to increase data set, making it more competent and effective in accounting for earthquake causes. By considering the causative fault types of all earthquakes, Sadigh et al. [38] employed attenuation equation to predict the PGA. ...
Article
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During severe earthquakes, liquefaction-induced lateral displacement causes significant damage to designed structures. As a result, geotechnical specialists must accurately estimate lateral displacement in liquefaction-prone areas in order to ensure long-term development. This research proposes a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model based on 247 post liquefaction in-situ free face ground conditions case studies for analyzing liquefaction-induced lateral displacement. The performance of the GPR model is assessed using statistical parameters, including the coefficient of determination, coefficient of correlation, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), and ratio of the RMSE to the standard deviation of measured data. The developed GPR model predictive ability is compared to that of three other known models—evolutionary polynomial regression, artificial neural network, and multi-layer regression available in the literature. The results show that the GPR model can accurately learn complicated nonlinear relationships between lateral displacement and its influencing factors. A sensitivity analysis is also presented in this study to assess the effects of input parameters on lateral displacement.
... A large number of worldwide GMPEs have been developed in the past two decades that can be paired with compatible horizontal GMPEs to estimate the V/H ratio. Examples of vertical GMPEs are studies by Abrahamson and Silva (1997), Campbell (1997), Sadigh et al. (1997), Bozorgnia and Campbell (2004), Ambraseys et al. (2005), Chiou and Youngs (2013), Bozorgnia and Campbell (2016a), Stewart et al. (2016), and Gu¨lerce et al. (2017). The second approach is to develop a GMPE directly for the V/H ratios obtained from the empirical data. ...
Article
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We develop a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for estimating the vertical ground motion amplitudes for crustal earthquakes in Taiwan. The data set used for the development includes strong-motion recordings mainly from Taiwan earthquakes (M3.5–7.6) and supplemented with large-magnitude earthquakes (M6.5–7.9) from other regions in the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) next generation attenuation (NGA)-West2 database. The functional form of the GMPE is similar to that of Phung et al. developed for the horizontal component (P20). The GMPE provides median and standard deviations of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped pseudo spectral acceleration response ordinates of the orientation-independent average horizontal component of ground motion (RotD50) for the spectral period of 0.01–10 s. The vertical ground motion developed in this study can be paired with the P20 horizontal component model to estimate a vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) ratio that is unbiased. In the vertical component, we observe significant nonlinear site effects in the period of about 0.2–0.5 s, moderate nonlinear site effects in the period of about 0.01–0.04 s, and small nonlinear site effects in the period of about 0.05–0.075 s. Compared to our horizontal GMPE, anelastic attenuation is faster, V S30 -scaling is reduced, and nonlinear site response is weaker for the vertical component.
... As the local ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) is not well known for this region, we compare our results with seven different GMPEs derived based on strong-motion data. These models were FUKU1990 for Japan (Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990), THEN1998 for the eastern United States and the Mississippi valley (Thenhaus et al., 1989), SAD1997 for California (Sadigh et al., 1997), SKA2004 for Greece (Skarlatoudis et al., 2004), AMB2005 for Europe and the Middle East (Ambraseys et al., 2005), AKK2010 for Europe and the Middle East (Akkar and Bommer, 2010), and KIU2019 for western Saudi Arabia (Kiuchi et al., 2019). These models are previously used in a PGA study in Saudi Arabia (Abdelwahed et al., 2020). ...
Article
In the southernmost part of the Arabian Shield, southeastern onshore of the Red Sea, damage earthquakes were historically reported implying that the region may be susceptible to have a potential seismic hazard in future. To understand the potential seismic hazard in the region, we present an analysis to simulate the peak ground accelerations (PGA) from future large earthquakes of Mw 6.0, and 6.5 in the region using an empirical Green's function (EGF) summation technique. The waveform recordings for a small-sized earthquake of Mw 4.4, that occurred in 23rd of January 2014, were used as an element earthquake. The estimated PGA values are consistent with the corresponding values of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that derived for California, Japan, and Western Saudi Arabia, indicating that these equations are applicable for rock site conditions in the region. The results of response spectra reveal periods vary from 0.2 s to 3.0 s, implying potential hazard impacts for short and tall buildings.
... Attenuation equations tend to be regional specific and may depend upon site conditions. This study lacked well developed attenuation relation for the EARS region due to lack of strong motion data, and thus, it had to adopt those developed for the western United States rock site conditions (Sadigh et al. 1997). The choice for adopting attenuation relation for western United States was based on the relevance for shallow events in extensional regime similar to EARS region. ...
Article
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This work presents the evaluation of earthquake resistance of the Arusha International Conference Centre (AICC) complex, in Tanzania. The evaluation included probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and site response analysis. Seismic sources considered to constitute a seismic hazard in this study were randomly occurring seismicity located within five tectonic provinces around the site. For each province the seismic hazard is based on a cursory analysis of earthquake data from compiled ESARSWG bulletins and temporary deployed networks within the North Tanzania Divergence (NTD). Bedrock response signal together with the information of material characteristics from boreholes around the AICC site were used in analysis of site response. PSHA results indicated uniform hazard spectra values of 0.15, 0.2 and 0.27 g for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years, respectively. The surface ground response results indicated a maximum amplification factor of 3.7 and a spectral response of 4.5 g for a wave period of 0.6 sec that matches the natural frequency of the 6-7 storey buildings of the AICC complex. It is this resonance effect on the buildings that is assumed to have caused intense shaking in the earthquake of December 5 th 2005 from Lake Tanganyika.
... However, in the above-mentioned research on the residual distribution of ground motion, the variation with magnitude of the distribution of ground-motion residuals has not attracted enough attention. Heteroscedasticity may cause a difference in residual distribution, and ground-motion scatter decreases as magnitude increases Silva 1997, 2008;Sadigh et al. 1997;Campbell and Bozorgnia 2004;Bommer et al. 2007). ...
Article
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The lognormal distribution is commonly used to characterize the aleatory variability of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, this approach often leads to results without actual physical meaning at low exceedance probabilities. In this paper, we discuss how to calculate PSHA with a low exceedance probability. Peak ground acceleration records from the NGA-West2 database and 15,493 residuals calculated by Campbell-Bozorgnia using the NGA-West2 GMPE were applied to analyze the tail shape of the residuals. The results showed that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) captured the characteristics of residuals in the tail better than the lognormal distribution. Further study showed that the shapes of the tails of the distributions of residuals with different magnitudes varied significantly due to the heteroscedasticity of the magnitude; the distribution of residuals with larger magnitudes had a smaller upper limit on the right side. Moreover, the residuals of the three magnitude ranges given in this study were more consistent with the GPD of different parameters at the tail than the lognormal distribution and the GPD fitted by all the residuals, leading to a bounded PSHA hazard curve. Therefore, the lognormal distribution is more representative up to a determined threshold, and the GPD fitted to the residuals of three ranges of magnitude better characterizes the tail for PSHA calculation.
... The b-value, maximum magnitude, and source depth are set to be 0.9, M w 6.5, and 5 km, respectively. We implement a ground-motion attenuation equation for California (Sadigh et al., 1997). We calculate the exceedance rates of ground-motion levels at distances of 0, 50, 100, and 125 km from the center of the source area. ...
Article
The Korean Peninsula is located in a stable intraplate region with low-seismicity rates and long recurrence intervals of major earthquakes. Recent moderate-size earthquakes demonstrate possible occurrence of seismic damages in the Korean Peninsula. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on instrumental and historical seismicity is applied for the Korean Peninsula. Three seismotectonic province models are used for area sources. Seven ground-motion prediction equations calibrated for bedrock condition are considered. Fault source models are not applied due to poor identification of active faults. A 500 yr long historical record of earthquakes includes moderate and large earthquakes of long recurrence intervals. The influences of model parameters are reflected through a logic-tree scheme. The process and results are verified by Monte Carlo ground-motion level simulation and benchmark tests. Relatively high-seismic hazards are modeled in the northwestern, south-central, and southeastern Korean Peninsula. The horizontal peak ground accelerations reach ∼0.06, 0.09, 0.13, 0.21, and 0.28g for periods of 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 yr, respectively, with exceedance probability of 10%. Successive moderate-size earthquakes since the 11 March 2011 Tohoku–Oki megathrust earthquake have temporarily increased the seismic hazards in the southeastern peninsula.
... In the present study, global models were used together with local models. The global ground motion prediction models developed by Boore and Atkinson (2008), Campbell andBozorgnia (1997, 2008) and Sadigh et al. (1997) were used, and their average was taken into consideration in the calculations. Although these models were developed for earthquakes in the California region, the USGS confirmed that they could be used also for Europe. ...
Article
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Muğla Province, which has been selected as the study area, is located in the Aegean Extension Region (AER), where seismic motions are widely observed. Moreover, the AER is the most active part of the Eastern Mediterranean Region in terms of seismic activity, and this seismicity has been continuing increasingly. This study aims to determine the seismic hazard of Muğla Province and its surroundings by using the probabilistic seismic hazard method. The earthquake dataset including 19,824 seismic records that were used in the research was obtained from the national and international earthquake catalogs. The data about the active fault zones in the study area were acquired from the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration. The seismic source zones were generated as homogeneous areas as possible taking into account the active fault zones. The earthquakes in seismic source zones were eliminated based on the time and distance frames. The annual recurrence relationships of the source zones were determined using the least-squares method taking into account the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 or above. The peak acceleration values on the bedrock were calculated using the attenuation relationships of the selected local and global ground motion prediction models. The calculations were performed using the SEISRISK III software package utilizing the homogeneous Poisson Process Model according to the exceedance probability of 10% for 50 years (corresponding to the return period of 475 years). The peak acceleration values on bedrock were found to range between 0.11 and 0.42. The study revealed that the Gökova fault zone (Zone 4) was the most active source in terms of the seismic hazard in the region and that the seismic hazard of the southwestern part of the region was greater compared to other parts.
... Recently, a comprehensive and comparative study of the past GMPEs was compiled by Douglas [15]. For shallow crustal earthquakes, four models have been used in current studies including three GMPEs namely Abrahamson and Silva [16], Fukushima and Tanaka [17], Sadigh et al. [18]. In addition, the equation by Zhao et al. [19] was used to analyse PSHA for subduction zone. ...
Article
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Sabah is known for its active earthquake activities, especially in Ranau, Kudat and Lahad Datu areas. The effects of local earthquake can reach M W 6.0. Furthermore, Sabah was also hit by earthquakes from neighbouring countries such as Sulawesi and Philippines. These countries produce highly active earthquakes that can reach as high as M W 8.6. The increase in the frequency of earthquakes is one of the concerns of the Sabah government for the safety of its people because most people live in concentrated areas near the coast. This study shows the effects of major earthquakes from the Philippines and Sulawesi which have been recorded between 1900 to 2020 and analyzed in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). The eastern region of Sabah is adopted in the analysis for the effect of long-distance earthquakes, as these areas are close to both countries. The analysis uses standard seismic hazard assessment procedure with compilation magnitudes greater than M W 5.0. In the final analysis, it is shown that the effects of large earthquakes from both countries are relatively small compared to the effects of local earthquakes.
... (Pitilakis et al., 2007). Επιλέχθηκαν τρεις διαφορετικές σχέσεις εξασθένησης οι οποίες έχουν προταθεί αντίστοιχα από τους Ambraseys (1996), Sadigh et al., (1997) (Aki, 1957), και από 31 μετρήσεις θορύβου σε μεμονωμένες θέσεις (single station noise measurements) χρησιμοποιώντας τη μέθοδο HVSR, (Nakamura, 1989). Με βάση τις επί τόπου μετρήσεις πεδίου καθορίστηκαν οι ταχύτητες των διατμητικών κυμάτων (Vs) σε δεκατέσσερα εδαφικά προφίλ. ...
Conference Paper
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Η παρούσα εργασία αφορά στη Μικροζωνική Μελέτη της πόλης Duzce της Τουρκίας, η οποία υπέστη σοβαρές ζημιές στο σεισμό της 12ης Νοεμβρίου 1999, (Mw 7.2). Αρχικά εκπονήθηκε η μελέτη σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας για την εκτίμηση της μέγιστης εδαφικής επιτάχυνσης σε συνθήκες βράχου. Έπειτα, συγκεντρώθηκαν όλα τα διαθέσιμα γεωφυσικά και γεωλογικά δεδομένα και διενεργήθηκαν στοχευμένες επί τόπου μετρήσεις μικροθορύβου ώστε να προκύψουν οι 2D γεωτεχνικές τομές κατά μήκος της πόλης και η ακριβής γνώση του «σεισμικού υποβάθρου». Αφού προσδιορίστηκε ο σεισμός εισαγωγής, διενεργήθηκαν 1D θεωρητικές αναλύσεις για το σεισμικό σενάριο του σεισμού του 1999, για την εκτίμηση της χωρικής κατανομής της μέγιστης εδαφικής επιτάχυνσης και την πρόταση νέου κανονικοποιημένου φάσματος απόκρισης, για κάθε μία από τις δύο προτεινόμενες σεισμικές ζώνες της πόλης. Τέλος, διενεργήθηκαν επιπρόσθετες θεωρητικές αναλύσεις σε επιλεγμένες θέσεις για τον υπολογισμό φασμάτων απόκρισης επιτάχυνσης, τα οποία συγκρίνονται με τα αντίστοιχα φάσματα σχεδιασμού των αντισεισμικών κανονισμών και των νέων προτάσεων εδαφικής κατηγοριοποίησης, με στόχο την καλύτερη τεκμηρίωση της Μικροζωνικής Μελέτης.
... • China ground motions attenuate more slowly with respect to source-to-site distance than the reference GMMs, possibly due to the higher values of the shear-wave quality factor Q for China than those implied by the reference GMM. • California: Sadigh et al. (1997) • Japan: Fukushima and Tanaka (1990) • China: Wang et al. (2000) • PGA is higher than the predictions of the reference GMMs over the considered distance range; ...
Conference Paper
This dissertation attempts to advance empirical ground-motion modelling methodologies by considering spatial and cross-intensity measure (IM) correlation properties. Despite the recent advancements in empirical ground-motion models (GMMs), there are some limitations in the current state-of-practice for their development, including (1) statistically inefficient approaches for estimating the model parameters; and (2) the ad hoc consideration of spatial correlation properties rather than an integrated procedure within the model development process. This dissertation addresses these two issues through the statistical proof and numerical implementation of a one-stage estimation algorithm to establish GMMs, considering the spatial correlation component in an explicit and integrated fashion. The proposed algorithm is numerically efficient in estimating model parameters and is extendable to address anisotropy and nonstationary spatial correlation properties. Utilising the proposed algorithm, this dissertation proposes new GMMs with spatial correlation for IMs representing the amplitude, cumulative measures, energy content, and inelastic spectral displacement. The focus is on Italian strong-motion records. The cross-IM correlation models between the considered IMs are also established. The developed GMMs and the obtained correlation properties are scrutinised and compared with the available models in the literature. The differences in terms of model development methodologies and the underlying datasets, which collectively affect the results obtained from the developed GMMs, are critically discussed. Different application cases are finally presented demonstrating the values of the developed methodology and the resulting GMMs for providing accurate ground motion estimates for the purpose of seismic hazard analysis.
... Attenuation laws describe ground movement decreasing as a function of m and R. This research considered two attenuation laws for PSHA assessment: Youngs et al. [6] model for subduction earthquakes related to interface and intraplate processes (sources from F1 to F8 and from F20 to F33, respectively), and Sadigh et al. [7] model for cortical earthquakes (sources from F9 to F19). ...
Conference Paper
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University buildings in Perú are considered critical structures which do not present enough information about its seismic vulnerability. This research develops a probabilistic methodology that estimates seismic losses for a Peruvian university building based on fragility functions. These functions represent the overall building behavior through 2D and 3D model frames. These results will permit to know if 2D analyzed results are sufficient to know the real 3D structure behavior. Latin Hypercube technique, an improved Montecarlo-based method, allowed to generate fragility functions through a simulation process. This method creates 100 reliable samples of structural parameters for every level of seismic demand. Three structural parameters were considered in the simulation process as follows: Concrete compressive strength, maximum concrete strain and yield stress of the reinforcing steel. Synthetic records defined seismic demand and these signals were compatible with the elastic Peruvian design spectrum. Acceleration records were scaled based on the peak ground acceleration on rigid soil (PGA) which goes from 0.05g to 1.00g. A total of 2000 structural models were created considering both structural and seismic variability. The university building shows an expected Mean Damage Factor of 18.40% and 20.25% in X direction and 12.65% and 8.80% in Y direction, for 3D and 2D model frames respectively; considering a 0.22g-PGA scenario, which was amplified by the soil type coefficient and resulted in 0.26g-PGA. These ratios were computed considering a seismic demand related to 10% of probability of exceedance in 50 years which is a requirement in the Peruvian seismic code. These results show an acceptable seismic performance.
... However, most GMPEs do not account for spatial variations in path and/or site effects, which are known to significantly affect ground motions (Lastrico et al. 1972;Drake 1980;Bard & Bouchon 1985;Sanchez 1987;Kawase & Aki 1989;Olsen & Schuster 1995;Joyner 2000;LeBrun et al. 2002;Day et al. 2008;Frankel et al. 2009;Taborda & Bielak 2013;Bhattarai et al. 2015;Bowden & Tsai 2017;Rajaure et al. 2017;Rodgers et al. 2018;Wirth et al. 2019). Furthermore, only limited regions have the required density of observations to allow GMPEs to be derived, leading to location bias in the resulting equations (Abrahams & Silva 1997;Sadigh et al. 1997;Campbell & Bozorgnia 2008;Boore & Atkinson 2008;Chiou & Youngs 2008;Idriss 2008;Power et al. 2008;Campbell et al. 2009;Gülerce et al. 2013). Therefore, there is a reason for considering other techniques in parallel, which allow us to investigate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in the crust on the duration and intensity of ground motion. ...
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Rapid urban growth has led to large population densities in foreland basin regions, and therefore a rapid increase in the number of people exposed to hazard from earthquakes in the adjacent mountain ranges. It is well known that earthquake-induced ground shaking is amplified in sedimentary basins. However, questions remain regarding the main controls on this effect. It is, therefore, crucial to identify the main controls on earthquake shaking in foreland basins as a step towards mitigating the earthquake risk posed to these regions. We model seismic-wave propagation from range-front thrust-faulting earthquakes in a foreland-basin setting. The basin geometry (depth and width) and source characteristics (fault dip and source-to-basin distance) were varied, and the resultant ground motion was calculated. We find that the source depth determines the amount of near-source ground shaking and the basin structure controls the propagation of this energy into the foreland basin. Of particular importance is the relative length scales of the basin depth and dominant seismic wavelength (controlled by the source characteristics), as this controls the amount of dispersion of surface-wave energy, and so the amplitude and duration of ground motion. The maximum ground motions occur when the basin depth matches the dominant wavelength set by the source. Basins that are shallow compared with the dominant wavelength result in low-amplitude and long-duration dispersed waveforms. However, the basin structure has a smaller effect on the ground shaking than the source depth and geometry, highlighting the need for understanding the depth distribution and dip angles of earthquakes when assessing earthquake hazard in foreland-basin settings.
... Por otra parte, la determinación de espectros probabilísticos se pudo establecer mediante uso del software Crisis 2015 Ver 4.1. El cual ha permitido evaluar las leyes de atenuación propuestas por (Youngs, Chiou, Silva, & Humphrey, 1997) y (Sadigh, Chang, Egan, Makdisi, & Youngs, 1997) para el cálculo de las aceleraciones espectrales. ...
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Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are open challenge problems that have been developed since 1964. Parametric and nonparametric methods predict ground motion characteristics such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), velocity, displacements, and spectral accelerations. In the present study, the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm was used to obtain a new and developed GMPE for predicting PGA. Data from recorded earthquakes from all over the world were collected, and after filtering of Mw and distance parameters, close to 2000 data were used for modelling. Three parameters of Mw (4–7.9), epicentral distance (0.25–115 km) and geological conditions (soft soil, stiff soil, rock) were used as input parameters for estimating PGA. Many previous studies classified geological conditions based on shear wave velocity at the top 30 m (Vs30), without taking into account the effect of Vs30 at each group. In this study, the effects of Vs30 were considered separately for each geological group too. Results showed that PGA decreased by increasing Vs30 and moving from soft soil toward rock. Finally, the relationship was compared with the other two relations suggested for the local region and global earthquakes, and despite the simplicity of the suggested relation gained by the GWO method, it estimated PGA in terms of accuracy to a good and acceptable level.
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The objective of this study is to ascertain the causes of damage to buildings that occurred due to an earthquake near its source, particularly in the Pleret sub-district in Yogyakarta Special Province Indonesia. This study was conducted because a large percentage of human fatalities and structural collapse occurred during the Yogyakarta earthquake of May 27, 2006. Since the earthquake records on the site are not available, another way to obtain synthetic ground motions can be done in ways suggested by Bulajic and Manic (Motion records as a seismological input for seismic safety evaluation engineering structures, 2005), Rezaeian and Kiureghian (Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 39:1155–1180, 2010). Towards these ends, this research applied the Total Probability Theorem in the Seismic Hazard Probability Analysis (PSHA) with 3-D seismic sources. In this case, the PSHA analysis was carried out based on a 10% probability exceeded for 50 years building life time. The obtained uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) was then transferred to the risk targeted Maximum Credible Earthquake MCEr through the directivity factor Df and risk targeted factor Rf with an average increase of 8.13% to UHS. Three earthquake records were selected, and after spectral matching, the high ranging bedrock accelerations were obtained from 0.254 to 0.289 g. After conducting site response analysis, peak ground accelerations on the ground surface varied from 0.398 to 0.412 g. Furthermore, acceleration site amplifications between 1.401 and 1.426 were obtained, which are higher than the spectral site amplification between 1.215 and 1.385. Since the site amplification is still in the normal category, building damage is mostly caused by relatively high levels of ground acceleration and shaking to relatively old buildings with low material and construction quality. Although the study is still in its early stages, there are indications of fling effects on the site even though the intensity is relatively small.
Chapter
This chapter introduces seismic monitoring of structural systems for buildings and begins with a historical background of this topic in the United States. After providing the historical context, the chapter reviews common seismic instrumentation issues such as utilization of data, code versus extensive instrumentation, free-field instrumentation, record synchronization requirements and more. Recent developments in damage detection is examined including damage detection based on changes in natural frequencies, permanent deformations, and interstory drift. Finally, applications in Europe, the Middle East, and Japan of seismic monitoring of structural systems for buildings are discussed.
Chapter
Earthquake disasters are widespread in Indonesia, and one of the areas that frequently experiences earthquakes is Yogyakarta. Many buildings have experienced minor to severe damage during an earthquake. Given this reason, the building design should consider earthquake loads from spectral responses; however, there is the difficulty of getting time history data. In the latest earthquake map, the return period earthquake changes from the 475 to 2475 years made the old buildings comply with the new code. A research object that was selected in this study is the Alana Yogyakarta Hotel. This study examines the changes in time history's value based on shallow crustal earthquake sources using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Earthquake events around Yogyakarta were collecting from various sources. In hazard analysis requires the distinction between the mainshock, foreshock, and aftershock. This study's attenuation function was selected based on the similarity of Indonesia's geological and tectonic conditions. A reference to select the time history data is the dominant distance and dominant magnitude from hazard deaggregation analysis. The spectral matching process was carried out to equalize the spectral response value in the study area of time history. The resulting time history is artificial. The results showed that the old code's peak acceleration value is smaller than in the new code.KeywordsShallow CrustalHazard deaggregationTime History
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This study aims to quantify seismic hazard assessments in the Jazan region. For this purpose, we determined earthquake recurrence parameters for potential seismic zones that may export risk to the region. A total number of ten seismic zones were identified based on the morphotectonic nature, seismic energy pattern, and previous studies. Estimates of the b-value varied from 0.74-1.42, reflecting different processes of tectonic activities. The maximum possible magnitudes (Mmax) of 5.9±0.3 to 8.3±1.1 are anticipated to be occurred in the region between 48 and 2090 years with annual probabilities of 13%, 23%, and 36% in 25, 50, and 100 years of life, respectively. Finally, the maximum expected magnitudes obtained from this study were used in cooperation with five alternative attenuation relationships to predict peak ground accelerations. The seismic hazard map of 84% was produced at hard rock using logic tree uncertainties, showing a high seismic hazard alongside the coastline shores while a low seismic hazard extended inside the Arabian Shield that is assumed to have a stable continental crust. The response spectra at hard rock in Jizan city showed maximum PGA values corresponding to spectral frequencies of 2 to 5 Hz, implying that high-frequency vibrations may have an impact on building structures.
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The definition of hazard-consistent ground motions for seismic design has been an active area of research in the past few decades. With the advancements in computing power we have taken giant steps in performance based seismic design (PBSD). At the heart of PBSD is performing non-linear response history analysis to verify the performance of a structural design. Among the challenges faced by engineers conducting response history analysis is the selection/generation of a set of ground motions that are compatible with a target spectrum that is representative of the seismic demand of the structure of interest. There are several ways to obtain spectrum compatible records. One can do scaling of the ground motions to closely match the response spectrum of an individual record to the design target spectrum. Another method is based on time or frequency domain modifications of the recorded acceleration time series to make them spectrum compatible. The focus of this study is to use spectral matching techniques to represent bi-directional demands accurately. The code spectrum represents bi-directional demand, which is quantified by either geo-mean spectrum (ASCE 7-05) or the maximum direction spectrum (ASCE 7-10). For 3-D analysis, the structure must be subjected to a pair of ground motions accounting for the bi-directional demand of the code spectrum. Although the present code provisions indicate that the RotD100 (Maximum direction) spectra of the individually matched motions be at least 110% of the design spectra, the values are well over 110% according to the analysis presented herein. The primary objective of this study is to propose a spectral matching method that captures the bi-directional demand of the structure and is compatible with design code requirements, named the “Match and Scale” approach. 398 pairs of ground motion records are considered to compute the mean and standard deviation of the scaling factors across oscillator periods. The proposed scaling factors represent the mean of the ratio of RotD100 spectral value of the individually matched motions to the spectral ordinates of the design target spectrum across all periods. Furthermore, another method to simultaneously match pairs of ground motions RSPmatchBi by Grant (2011), is explored for comparison purposes. The accuracy of the proposed method is assessed by performing non-linear time history analysis for bi-directional input and evaluating the variation in structural response as a result of considering different orientations of the input ground motion. The median structural response results from the proposed method is compared with the median response obtained with RSPmatchBi. The median responses fall in the same range, thus validating the proposed method.
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The seismic hazard analyses for Yemen have attracted the attention of researchers during the last two decades. However, the studies are limited and mainly use deterministic or approximate conventional probabilistic approaches. The conclusions drawn from these studies do not fit with current seismic design codes (International Building Code). This article presented the method and findings of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Yemen in accordance with current seismic design building regulations. All the data sources, available nationally and internationally, were utilized in compiling earthquake database by covering the recent records and the seismic activity maps of the study region. The study area was regionalized to 11 seismotectonic area sources on the basis of the seismicity maps and available tectonic maps. On the analytical side, the earthquake recurrence analysis was evaluated for each source, and logic tree concept was used to model the seismic sources that may have significant effect on seismic hazard evaluation of Yemen as a combination of area and line sources. A probabilistic forecasting model was formulated, appropriate ground motion attenuation relationships were used, and seismic hazard contour maps were developed for the entire Yemen area. The maps present dense contours of peak ground accelerations and short and long period spectral accelerations for different return periods. The highest predicted seismic hazard is found in Dhamar City. This study provides basic and essential requirements that will be valuable in developing advanced seismic design criteria for Yemen.
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The province of Isparta is located in the southwest of Turkey and is in a seismically active belt. Many moderate and large earthquakes that occurred in the historical and instrumental periods in the region caused severe losses of life and property. This study aims to calculate the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Isparta province, which has the potential to produce earthquakes with magnitudes of six or more due to its active tectonics. It also aims to obtain peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps. A comprehensive and homogeneous data set of Mw≥4 for the period between 1900 and March 2021 was used in the analysis. The estimation of the seismic hazard parameters was based on the Poisson method, and the peak ground acceleration values corresponding to the recurrence period of 475 years were obtained by using two different attenuation relationships. The PGA maps of both attenuation relationships were visualized in the GIS environment. The highest PGA was obtained as 0.52 g from Akkar and Çağnan formula and 0.63 g from Kalkan and Gülkan formula in the Yalvaç district, located in the north of Isparta province.
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Quite frequently, catastrophes impact populated areas of the world, and hence the need for proper risk evaluations that support mitigation and management processes. Because of the uncertain nature of extreme natural hazards and lack of data, forecasts of the potential damage and losses before the event happens are needed. Catastrophe (CAT) models build on scenarios that represent all possible realizations of the hazard in terms of recurrence and intensity. Probabilistic risk models require the characterization of the hazards, the exposure model for the infrastructure, and its vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to compare loss exceedance curves, probable maximum loss curves, and average annual losses using four different available seismic hazard models for Chile. To isolate the effect of changing the hazard model in the risk results, the exposure and vulnerability information is fixed to the one available from the Global Assessment Report, GAR 15, and GAR ATLAS 2017. Imprecise probability theory, logic trees, and frequency and severity blends used by CAT modelers are the approaches applied and compared herein to propose either model blending or an interval of possible realizations. Both types of results have pros and cons. Blended results are point estimates which make them useful in a more traditional way, but their computation necessarily implies assigning weights to the models according to the modeler preferences. On the other hand, raw intervals of variability (without any knowledge of how the variable is distributed inside) are more transparent, as they simply state the bound of what is known without any preference, but their use is less understood among practitioners and could be even impractical.
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The most commonly used intensity measure of ground motion in earthquake engineering is the 5% damped spectral ordinate, which varies in different directions. Several different measures have been proposed over the years to combine the intensity of the two horizontal recorded ground motions to derive ground-motion models as well as for design purposes. This study provides the relation to seven previously used measures of horizontal ground motion with respect to a recently proposed orientation-independent measure of horizontal ground-motion intensity referred to as MaxRotD50. This new measure of horizontal intensity is defined as the median value of the maximum spectral ordinate of two orthogonal directions computed for all possible nonredundant orientations. The relations are computed using 5065 pairs of horizontal ground motions taken from the database of ground motions recorded in shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed as part of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center’s Next Generation Attenuation-West2 project. Empirically derived period-dependent relations are presented for three quantities that permit transforming any of the seven other definitions of horizontal ground-motion intensity to MaxRotD50, namely, (1) geometric mean of the ratio of MaxRotD50 to any of the seven other measures of intensities, (2) standard deviation of the natural logarithm of the ratio of MaxRotD50 to any of the seven other measures of intensities, and (3) the correlation between the natural logarithm of the ratio of MaxRotD50 to the other measures of intensities and the natural logarithm of the other measure of intensity. In addition, the influence of site class at the recording station, earthquake magnitude, and distance to the horizontal projection of the rupture is examined on the geometric mean of the ratio of MaxRotD50 to the median intensity of all nonredundant orientations (i.e., RotD50), showing negligible influence of site class and only a relatively small influence of magnitude and distance.
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The presence of seismic threat multiplies the environmental hazard, especially for oil and gas production and transport facilities in water areas. Currently, there are no normative maps of general seismic zoning of the water areas of the inland and marginal seas of Russia, especially since there are practically no maps of detailed seismic zoning and seismic microzoning of even individual parts of the water areas. Taking into account the fact that intensive development of offshore oil and gas fields and the Northern Sea Route has begun, the development of such maps becomes a very urgent scientific and practical task. The seismic hazard assessment for the submerged crossing was carried out in 2008. The initial seismic effects were calculated using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on five models of seismic zones and three types of models of attenuation of peak and spectral accelerations. The results of the performed calculations, including deaggregation, have shown that the initial seismicity of the area of the gas pipeline crossing route through the Nevelskoy Strait for a return period of 1,000 years is lower than indicated on the OSR-2016-B map, where the eastern end of the crossing route through the strait is characterized by the initial seismicity equal to 9 points. The soil conditions (seismic microzoning) have been taken into account by three different methods: the seismic rigidity method, the calculation method, and the method considering the thickness of Quaternary deposits. The present studies show that seismic effects vary along the pipeline route from the mainland to Sakhalin Island from 8.4 to 8.9 on the MSK-64 scale for the recurrence period of seismic shaking T = 1,000 years and from 9.3 to 9.7 points for T = 5,000 years.
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A new version of CRISIS, the program to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), has been released. This new version, called R-CRISIS v20, includes several additions and improvements with respect to previous ones, in the geometric, attenuation and seismicity models, besides having implemented a parallelized computational process that speeds up the computations up to five times, adding flexibility to the users to perform state-of-the-art PSHA and more complex and detailed analyses within reasonable computational times. These additions have been implemented with the objective of having better representations of the different components of a PSHA whilst preserving all the options that were available in previous versions of the program. R-CRISIS remains being a free and open-source program, two characteristics that combined with its flexible programming architecture provide room for future developments of this mature and widely used tool.
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We study the statistical properties of time intervals between successive earthquakes for a given magnitude in the El Salvador volcanic chain, namely hereafter the interoccurrence times employing both the cumulative Poisson and the Weibull probability distributions. The dataset comprises magnitudes between M 4.0 and 6.93 within the years 1528–2018. We suggest that ITs pose the Weibull distribution for all events and that the Poisson distribution co-exists for ITs longer than the Weibull mean. Based on the probabilities distribution fit, we compute for engineering purposes ground motion and elastic response spectra for 5% damping employing time-dependent and independent seismic hazard models at San Salvador city, observing covariance of less than 7% amongst the models. The disaggregation analysis suggests that a magnitude 6.3 contributes most to the hazard and coincides with the magnitude bin of 6.25–6.50, which has the maximum conditional probability in the time-dependent model.
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The ISO requires a two-level seismic qualification, namely Extreme Level Earthquake (ELE) and Accidental Level Earthquake (ALE) where damages that do not lead to leak is acceptable. ISO accepts both the response spectrum method and the time history approach. Since the spool-soil system behaves non-linearly, the time domain analyses must be performed for both levels. ISO requires 7 real earthquakes scaled for the site to be used for each seismic level and the system must pass at least 50% of the cases. Best estimate soil models were developed to represent soil conditions at the manifolds locations in Part I. A set of 10 real earthquake time histories were propagated through the soil column for each location. The resulting ground motion at the surface was computed using a nonlinear model. The frequency-dependent ratio of spectra acceleration at the mudline to the stiff soil outcrop spectral acceleration (Spectral Amplification Ratio or SAR) was computed for each time history. The mean SAR was then used to modify the stiff soil hazard results from the PSHA to obtain design response spectra at the mudline. This is the second part of three interlinked papers summarises the state of art for the benefit of practitioners of subsea engineering.
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Three models were used to produce three probabilistic hazard maps for the Jordan-Dead Sea transform ͑DST͒. No seismic source zones were proposed. Models I and II are based on spatially smoothed historical and instrumentally recorded earthquakes. Model I used the data with magnitudes greater than 3.0 for the time period 1900 to 2003, while Model II used data with the magnitude range between 5.0 and 7.0 for the time period 2100 B.C. to A.D. 2003. Model III is the weighted model that is based on characteristic earthquakes that occurred along each major fault in the last ϳ4,100 years. To assess the peak ground acceleration ͑PGA͒, three different attenuation equations were used. The resulting hazard maps represent 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which corresponds to a return period of 475 years. The maximum PGA value was 350 cm/ sec 2 for the northernmost part of the DST, namely, between latitudes 35.5°and 36.5°N, and the southwestern part of Cyprus. In the regions of maximum expected ground motion, there is general agreement between the results of this study and those of previous studies that used the seismic source zones. However, peak ground accelerations predicted in this study are typically 10-20% less than those of previous studies. We believe this study represents an improvement on prior seismic hazard evaluations for the region. In addition to the updated input data, we believe that, by integrating three models, a more robust estimate of the hazard is provided.
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