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Fear of Novelty: A Model of Scientific Discovery with Strategic Uncertainty

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the production of fundamental research as a coordination game played by scholars. In the model, scholars decide to adopt a new idea only if they believe that a critical mass of peers is following a similar research strategy. If researchers observe only a noisy idiosyncratic signal of the true scientific potential of a new idea, we show that the game presents a single threshold equilibrium. In this environment, fundamental research proceeds with large structural breaks followed by long periods of time in which new ideas are unsuccessful. The likelihood of a new idea emerging depends on various parameters, including the rewards of working in the old paradigm, the critical mass of researchers required to create a new school of thought and scholars' ability to properly assess the scientific value of new ideas. (JEL O31, C72, A14)

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... This pursuit adheres to the principle of "no free lunch". Owing to the inherent tension between accumulating academic accomplishments and fostering innovation, scientists grapple with the delicate task of balancing conventional and pioneering research fields [3]. Diverse strategies employed in the process of topic selection yield markedly distinct outcomes, impacting both personal development [4][5][6]and scientific progress [7]. ...
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... This pursuit adheres to the principle of "no free lunch". Owing to the inherent tension between accumulating academic accomplishments and fostering innovation, scientists grapple with the delicate task of balancing conventional and pioneering research fields [3]. Diverse strategies employed in the process of topic selection yield markedly distinct outcomes, impacting both personal development [4][5][6]and scientific progress [7]. ...
Preprint
The selection of research topics by scientists can be viewed as an exploration process conducted by individuals with cognitive limitations traversing a complex cognitive landscape influenced by both individual and social factors. While existing theoretical investigations have provided valuable insights, the intricate and multifaceted nature of modern science hinders the implementation of empirical experiments. This study leverages advancements in deep learning techniques to investigate the patterns and dynamic mechanisms of topic-transition among scientists. By constructing the knowledge space across 6 large-scale disciplines, we depict the trajectories of scientists' topic transitions within this space, measuring the flow and distance of research regions across different sub-spaces. Our findings reveal a predominantly conservative pattern of topic transition at the individual level, with scientists primarily exploring local knowledge spaces. Furthermore, simulation modeling analysis identifies research intensity, driven by the concentration of scientists within a specific region, as the key facilitator of topic transition. Conversely, the knowledge distance between fields serves as a significant barrier to exploration. Notably, despite potential opportunities for breakthrough discoveries at the intersection of subfields, empirical evidence suggests that these opportunities do not exert a strong pull on scientists, leading them to favor familiar research areas. Our study provides valuable insights into the exploration dynamics of scientific knowledge production, highlighting the influence of individual cognition, social factors, and the intrinsic structure of the knowledge landscape itself. These findings offer a framework for understanding and potentially shaping the course of scientific progress.
... Perhaps it will. In academic works, people usually fear novelty for a while, as discussed by (Besancenot and Vranceanu (2015). These authors point out that progress in the advancement of knowledge typically proceeds in stages. ...
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... Perhaps it will. In academic works, people usually fear novelty for a while, as discussed by (Besancenot and Vranceanu (2015). These authors point out that progress in the advancement of knowledge typically proceeds in stages. ...
Article
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Released less than fve months ago, ChatGPT became the center of attention of scholars worldwide. This artifcial intelligence (AI) language model has over 100 million subscribers worldwide, generating many discussions concerning its accuracy, advantages, and threats to science and education. Its accuracy in law, linguistics, mathematics, and medicine has already been evaluated. Most results suggest that ChatGPT could generate a passing grade in these domains. However, its performance in sports science and psychology has yet to be tested. The large amount of information in this general area may yield more accurate performance. Still, specifc subjects in the feld, with controversial research fndings, can lead to signifcant errors, which teachers and researchers could quickly spot. In this study, ChatGPT was tested on its accuracy on exercise addiction, a sports science and psychology subject associated with more than 1,000 publications. ChatGPT gave several correct answers to 20 questions but failed the test with 45%. Its performance was like in other already tested subjects. However, when prompted to write a general introductory editorial on AI’s role in sports, ChatGPT performed well. Plagiarism detectors could not identify the AI-originated text, but AI detectors did. Therefore, it can be concluded that the system does a relatively good job on general issues but needs further development in more specifc areas. Students and scholars cannot rely on ChatGPT to do their job. Still, future versions could yield dilemmas of originality since the system does not provide information for its source(s) of information. Keywords: artifcial intelligence; computers, information; language model; plagiarism.
... Perhaps it will. In academic works, people usually fear novelty for a while, as discussed by (Besancenot and Vranceanu (2015). These authors point out that progress in the advancement of knowledge typically proceeds in stages. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
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... This focus on impact in science policy has recently been decried by many, including Alberts (2013) and Osterloh and Frey (2015). For the theory of knowledge production implies that science policy decisions should be guided by not just the influence of scientific work but also what kind of science is being pursued -novel or conventional (Kuhn 1962;Besancenot and Vranceanu 2015). ...
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... Scientific progress depends on the openness of a scientific community to try out new ideas systematically and continuously (5)(6)(7)(8)(34)(35)(36). When new ideas are first born, they are often raw and poorly understood and only develop into transformative ideas (if at all) through revision and debate on their merits. ...
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... The breakthrough Economist J.M. Keynes said that worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally (Keynes, 1937). Novel research methodologies are challenging and often ignored because of fear of rejection by accepted conventions for publication of research which Besancenot and Vranceanu (2015) argue is conventional and a conservative or risk-averse approach to research. Novel research methods do challenge the status quo. ...
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Since the classic work of Feyerabend and Kuhn, the role of social factors in the scientific enterprise has been a major concern in the philosophy and history of science. In particular, the presence of social factors such as the desire for prestige or pressures to conform to accepted ideas, have been regarded as reasons to question whether science naturally progresses towards more and more accurate approximations of reality. In this paper, we propose a formal model of theory choice which incorporates private and social influences. We provide a characterization of the interaction of social factors with theory choice. Our results demonstrate that the influence of social factors on scientific progress is far more complex than is typically assumed. In particular, we provide conditions under which social influences actually enhance the rate at which a superior theory replaces its inferior predecessor.
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L'int�r�t de l'approche par les jeux globaux ("global games'') est pr�cis�ment d'ancrer les anticipations sur des variables exog�nes r�elles. On peut ainsi garder l'aspect auto-r�alisateur des anticipations mais en restaurant l'unicit� de l'�quilibre et donc un meilleur pouvoir pr�dictif du mod�le. Nous illustrons ces m�canismes sur deux exemples. Le premier a trait au choix r�sidentiel d'agents qui ont une pr�f�rence "identitaire''. Le second a trait � la contagion de paniques bancaires d'un pays � un autre. De mani�re plus g�n�rale, tous les jeux qui pr�sentent des compl�mentarit�s strat�giques sont susceptibles d'�tre analys�s au moyen des techniques des "global games''. Il convient toutefois de rappeler que les techniques utilis�es demeurent assez sp�cifiques: l'incertitude strat�gique porte essentiellement sur les croyances de premier degr� des autres acteurs. Or, si de mani�re plus g�n�rale on suppose que cette incertitude peut porter sur des ordres plus �lev�s, les conclusions des mod�les peuvent changer. Ainsi, Weinstein et Yildiz (2004) montrent que dans un oligopole de Cournot, il y a une tr�s grande multiplicit� d'�quilibres si on suppose que l'incertitude porte sur les croyances de niveaux suffisamment �lev�s.
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Crises are volatile times when endogenous sources of information are closely monitored. We study the role of information in crises by introducing a financial market in a coordination game with imperfect information. The asset price aggregates dispersed private information acting as a public noisy signal. In contrast to the case with exogenous information, our main result is that uniqueness may not obtain as a perturbation from perfect information: multiplicity is ensured with small noise. In addition, we show that: (a) multiplicity may emerge in the financial price itself; (b) less noise may contribute toward nonfundamental volatility even when the equilibrium is unique; and (c) similar results obtain for a model where individuals observe one another?s actions, highlighting the importance of endogenous information more generally. (JEL D53, D82, D83)
Article
The authors asked the world's leading economists to describe instances in which journals rejected their articles. More than sixty essays, by a broadly diverse group that includes fifteen Nobel Prize winners, indicate that most have suffered publication rejection, often frequently. Indeed, journals have rejected many papers that later became classics. The authors discuss the prize-winners' experiences, other notable cases, and rejections by John Maynard Keynes when he edited the Economic Journal. Finally, they search in economists' almost universal experience of rejection for patterns and lessons about the publication process. Copyright 1994 by American Economic Association.
Conspicuous Scholarship: Competitive Unraveling in the Choice of Research Topics
  • T R Barraquer
  • Tan
Barraquer, T. R., and Tan, X., 2011. Conspicuous scholarship: Competitive unraveling in the choice of research topics, mimeo, Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Stanford University.
Researcher's dilemma
  • C Bobtche¤
  • J Bolte
  • T Mariotti
Bobtche¤, C., J. Bolte, and Mariotti, T., 2013. Researcher's dilemma. Institut d'Économie Industrielle Toulouse, IDEI Working Paper 763.
  • Y Bramoullé
  • G Saint-Paul
Bramoullé, Y., and Saint-Paul, G., 2010. Research cycles, Journal of Economic Theory, 145 (5), pp. 1890-1920.
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, ” in The Collected Writings ofGo here for SFX
  • J M Keynes
Comment on Morris and Shin: Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modeling
  • Atkeson A. A.
Researcher's Dilemma.” Institut d'Économie Industrielle Toulouse IDEI Working Paper No
  • C J Bobtcheff
  • Bolte
  • Mariotti