Book

The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work

Authors:
  • ShadowBox LLC & MacroCognition LLC
... We consider the influence of domain-specific experience because this is considered by various scholars to be a prerequisite for intuition (e.g., Akinci and Sadler-Smith, 2019;Hodgkinson et al., 2009;Klein, 2004;Miller and Ireland, 2005;Sadler-Smith and Shefy, 2004;Simon, 1987), such that only experienced actors would be capable of effectively using intuition. However, this has been debated by other scholars who argue that novices could also be intuitive by means of entrepreneurial intuition (Dutta and Crossan, 2005) or creative intuition (Dane and Pratt, 2007), which are distinct from expert intuition in that they rely on creative capacity rather than experience. ...
... 537). This aligns with Klein's (2004) work which maintains that once a course of action has been intuitively identified, individuals then evaluate its appropriateness by "imagining what would happen when they carried it out" (p. 26). ...
... Indeed, as a sub-class of ideation, new venture ideation represents one end of the continuum that becomes increasingly complex as the individual starts to imagine how others might respond to their initial ideas and the hypothetical actions they might take to progress the idea (Gemmell et al., 2012;Kier and McMullen, 2018). These processes take place at a conscious level and involve analysis and reasoning (Akinci and Sadler-Smith, 2019;Crossan et al., 1999;Klein, 2004) and are therefore classified as rational (analytical) processes according to CEST (Epstein, 2003(Epstein, , 2010. The above implies that new venture ideation involves analysis as well as intuition. ...
Article
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As many high-profile business leaders purport to make decisions based on gut feelings, a growing number of management scholars are seeking to explain how leaders use intuition in organizational settings. In line with dual-process theories, management scholars argue that the most effective decision makers are cognitively versatile, which means that they are able to ‘switch cognitive gears’ between intuition and analysis and, more importantly, that they are able to use both types of processing at high levels. Although this has important implications, the actual use of intuition as well as cognitive versatility have received limited scholarly attention. Motivated by the desire to address this gap, we pose the following research question: To what extent is experience associated with a) intuition and b) cognitive versatility, and with what effects? We consider the influence of domain-specific experience because this is considered to be a prerequisite for intuition, and we explore the effects in the context of new venture ideation which is a precursor to and the lifeblood of entrepreneurial action, not only for founders of new ventures but also for managers of existing organizations who seek to drive innovation and be entrepreneurial. We build on insights from the dual-process Cognitive-Experiential Self-Theory, as well as the literature on managerial and entrepreneurial intuition, to develop a conceptual model, which we test on data collected from 74 technology-entrepreneurs via think-aloud protocol analysis and an online survey. We find that experienced entrepreneurs are able to use both intuition and analysis extensively during new venture ideation, and that the use of intuition is most effective for new venture ideation when used together with analysis – both at high levels – in a cognitively versatile strategy.
... Simulating failure may make decision-makers work harder to avoid it. Klein (2003) notes that when people scrutinize their own plans, they are usually not looking to find any problems and are already biased in favour of the planconfidence biases are rife (i.e. the plan is "ours", so it must be good (Brown, 1986)). Russo and Schoemaker (1992) suggested a number of mechanisms to combat overconfidence: (1) accelerated feedback: using a known outcome to get immediate feedback on the decision; (2) counterargumentation: thinking up reasons why initial beliefs might be wrong; (3) paths to trouble: identification of all paths to a specific fault or problem, including listing additional causes of the problem and (4) paths to the future: explicit scenario analysis setting out how the future might play out in one or other specific direction. ...
... Furthermore, although the primary aim of study 1 was to test the MS intervention against the IPE in the HP condition, analysis of results in the MP condition suggested an unintended consequence of the intervention (Table 3): MP participant confidence in the optimal candidate (A) was significantly reduced and a [non-significant] number of MP participants switched their selection from the optimal to suboptimal candidate following the intervention. Given that the intervention borrows from the pre-mortem (Klein, 2003) which has achieved success as a confidence reduction technique (Veinott et al., 2010), this result is, perhaps unsurprising. We, therefore, wanted to test whether the intervention would have a similar effect in a second study. ...
Article
Purpose The “Individual Preference Effect” (IPE: Faulmüller et al., 2010; Greitemeyer and Schulz-Hardt, 2003; Greitemeyer et al., 2003), a form of confirmation bias, is an important barrier to achieving improved group decision-making outcomes in hidden profile tasks. Group members remain committed to their individual preferences and are unable to disconfirm their initial suboptimal selection decisions, even when presented with full information enabling them to correct them, and even if the accompanying group processes are perfectly conducted. This paper examines whether a mental simulation can overcome the IPE. Design/methodology/approach Two experimental studies examine the effect of a mental simulation intervention in attenuating the IPE and improving decision quality in an online individual hidden profile task. Findings Individuals undertaking a mental simulation achieved higher decision quality than those in a control condition and experienced a greater reduction in confidence in the suboptimal solution. Research limitations/implications Results suggest a role for mental simulation in overcoming the IPE. The test environment is an online individual decision-making task, and broader application to group decision-making is not tested. Practical implications Since mental simulation is something we all do, it should easily generalise to an organisational setting to improve decision outcomes. Originality/value To the authors' knowledge, no study has examined whether mental simulation can attenuate the IPE.
... For Simon, for instance, intuition is all the more effective when individuals have acquired expertise in a specific domain (Simon, 1983(Simon, , 1987Simon and Chase, 1973). In a similar vein, Klein's work shows that intuition is "an expression of experience as people build up patterns that enable them to rapidly size up situations and make rapid decisions without having to compare options" (Klein, 2015: 164;Klein, 2007Klein, , 2011Kahneman and Klein, 2009;Klein et al., 1986;Klein et al., 2007). Klein (2015) also points to the essentially tacit nature of intuition-often unavailable to consciousness and difficult to put into words, echoing Polanyi's aphorism that "we can know more than we can tell" (Polanyi, 1966: 4). ...
... For Simon, for instance, intuition is all the more effective when individuals have acquired expertise in a specific domain (Simon, 1983(Simon, , 1987Simon and Chase, 1973). In a similar vein, Klein's work shows that intuition is "an expression of experience as people build up patterns that enable them to rapidly size up situations and make rapid decisions without having to compare options" (Klein, 2015: 164;Klein, 2007Klein, , 2011Kahneman and Klein, 2009;Klein et al., 1986;Klein et al., 2007). Klein (2015) also points to the essentially tacit nature of intuition-often unavailable to consciousness and difficult to put into words, echoing Polanyi's aphorism that "we can know more than we can tell" (Polanyi, 1966: 4). ...
Article
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This study contributes to a holistic understanding of sensemaking by going beyond the mind–body dualism. To do so, we focus analytically on a phenomenon that operates at the nexus of mind and body: intuition. By observing four film crews, we unpack how people act their intuition into sense—that is, how they transform, through action, an initial sense (intuition) that is tacit, intimate, and complex into one that is publicly displayed, simpler, and ordered (i.e., a developed sense). Our model identifies two sensemaking trajectories, each of which involves several bodily actions (e.g., displaying feelings, working hands‐on, speaking assertively). These actions enable intuition to express a facet of itself and acquire new properties. This study makes three important contributions. First, it develops the holistic‐relational character of sensemaking by locating it in the relations among multiple loci (cognition, language, body, and materiality) rather than in each one disjunctively. Second, it theorizes embodied sensemaking as a transformative process entailing a rich repertoire of bodily actions. Third, it extends sensemaking research by attending to the physicality and materiality of language in embodied sensemaking.
... Cognition, 83(2), B35-B42. Klein, G. A. (2004) ...
... This approach lends itself to research examining the phenomenon of intuition (e.g., Klein, 2004), defined as a System 1 process that rapidly identifies an action to take that is often subjectively described as based on a "gut hunch" or instinct. This type of intuitive decision making (IDM) has been studied for its potential to support rapid, expert, accurate decisions that are of great value in complex and/or stressful environments. ...
Chapter
A recurring mistake is a tendency to repeat one’s mistake if the task includes repetitive actions with the same set of stimuli without feedback given. This phenomenon has been shown in a variety of cognitive tasks (Reber, 1989; Dienes and Scott, 2005; Allakhverdov, 1993). The possible mechanism of recurring errors should include not only a description of conditions when a single error may become recurring without being corrected but also a statement of differences between recurring and non-recurring mistakes. We suggest that recurring mistakes happen because we learn to make them. V. M. Allakhverdov, working in the former Soviet Union in 1974, developed a framework that described recurring errors as a consequence of a purported “negative choice” mechanism. In this chapter, we first describe this approach and the main findings obtained. We then compare studies carried out by V. M. Allakhverdov’s group on similar effects observed in a variety of studies conducted elsewhere.
... Experts commonly make good intuitive decisions, grounded in heuristics acquired through experience [1,2]. They also reveal greater anticipatory thinking skills [3]. ...
... All three types of anticipatory thinking [3] are frequently applied: pattern matching to react to individual cues, trajectory tracking to react to trends, and conditional anticipatory thinking to react to the implications of combinations of events. A plan suits several purposes: solving problems, teams coordination, predicting events and assisting improvisation [2,10]. Team performance and situation awareness are also enhanced by the plan, as it fosters shared cognition and smooth management of priorities and goals. ...
Chapter
Modern technology revolutionised marine navigation, reducing errors and increasing navigation safety. However, the same technology has been associated with critical accidents and navigators’ errors. On the other hand, expert mariners have proved to manage complex situations, adapting to unforeseen events successfully. To better understand the effects of new technologies and how work is currently done, the Portuguese navy promoted a study about navigation team performance. The results suggest that navigation technology appears to have a strong anchoring effect on team activity. While sensemaking and intuitive judgements complement the shortfalls of the decision support system (DSS), it was found that the combination of high automation influence with lack of coordination leads to a collaborative biased perception of the situation.
... The primary goal was to develop a completely different process for learning from events, revise policy, and develop training, educational materials, and a cadre of people skilled in the capture of information that helps both the prescribed burn team members involved and the organization to learn from the prescribed fire escapes. The US Forest Service formally adopted the facilitated learning analysis (FLA) process to review "unintended outcomes" (such as a prescribed fire escape, injury, or fatality) in 2013 [67]. The FLA paradigm seeks understanding and improving future performance, not fixing blame retrospectively. ...
... Increasingly, reviews recognize the inevitability of human error-particularly individuals missing signals that are identifiable in retrospect, but which go unnoticed for any of a variety of reasons. Because of this, there is an 4 The 2018 FLA Implementation Guide cautions against trying to make too much of a single data point (any single event), and falling into the trap of causality, which often leads to creation of "fixes" in the form of system-level changes via recommendations [67]. increasing frequency of recommendation for prescribed burn teams to pre-identify how to build in "slack" and "redundancy" to maximize the opportunity for someone, somewhere to notice and to feel encouraged to share this information in sufficient time for the organization to adapt. ...
Article
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Purpose of Review: Prescribed fire escapes continue to challenge most fire and land management agencies and many communities. This article considers the issue from knowledge management (KM) and organizational learning (OL) perspectives. We review organizational initiatives and the literature that have developed over the last 10 years to support learning from escaped prescribed fires, then use this to evaluate current learning practices and identify potential next frontiers for improving performance. Due to the difficulty obtaining statistics for non-federal entities, this review focuses primarily on developments in the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, but also captures reviews from the US Department of Interior, and the State of Victoria, Australia. Recent Findings: The recurring issue of prescribed fire escapes may in part be explained by the increasing challenges and expectations fire and land management agencies and prescribed fire managers face. Agencies are being asked to burn more area and suitably contain prescribed fires with fewer resources. In many jurisdictions, this challenge is heightened by increasingly tough climate conditions, shifting demographics internal and external to their agencies, changing patterns of land use, and requirements to meet increasing fuel reduction targets. A range of interventions has been developed and implemented by state and federal land and fire management agencies to support improved performance through KM and OL. However, prescribed fires continue to escape, often for the same reasons they always have, leading us to ask: is there a next frontier or level for improving performance though learning? Summary: This paper reviews recent developments in KM and OL to develop a model of organizational learning for prescribed fire. We then use this lens to review learning from prescribed burn escapes in Australia and the USA, highlighting the opportunities and challenges that agencies continue to face. Four areas of concentration to further strengthen OL are proposed, namely (i) strengthening the organizational learning culture, (ii) greater use of communities of practice to enhance lesson sharing, (iii) addressing the slow build time for prescribed burning expertise to replace pending retirements, and (iv) improving non-technical skills and human factors training.
... Contudo, um grande marco nessa direção foi dado no final da década de 1980, ao se iniciar o estudo sobre a tomada de decisão naturalista (RUSSO, FREDERICK e NOGUEIRA, 2008). Gary Klein, um dos pioneiros no estudo da tomada de decisão Intuição e racionalidade: um estudo sobre a tomada de decisão estratégica em empresas de pequeno porte naturalista, afirma que a intuição no processo decisório consiste na capacidade do ser humano em transformar suas experiências em sentenças e decisões, ou, em outras palavras, na capacidade de tomar decisões com utilização de padrões para identificar e compreender o que acontece em dada situação e agir com base em rotinas mentais previamente aprendidas e experimentadas (KLEIN, 2003;2007). Ademais, em situações reais de decisão, modelos racionais e suas abordagens sistemáticas, como por exemplo, análise de decisão e análise de utilidade de múltiplos critérios, não costuma abranger todos os fatores que afetam a tomada de decisão (KLEIN e KLINGER, 1991;ZSAMBOK e KLEIN, 1997;FLIN e MILITELLO, 2010). ...
Article
The literature about the process of decision making reflects the predominance of approaches based on unlimited rationality and bounded rationality, ie, rationality in one side and intuition in another. However, more recently a new perspective has emerged, according to which it is necessary integration between deliberate thinking, conscious, and instinctive, pointing to the existence of a continuum and not a dichotomy between the approaches. This paper aims to investigate which approach, rational or intuitive, the small business uses to make strategic decisions. For this we conducted a survey with 45 small business associated with Commercial and Business Association of Sergipe - ACESE. The results suggest the use of an integrated approach to decision making on the part of the companies surveyed and a slight tendency rational along the continuum between the approaches.
... Although people are usually willing to rely on simple deterministic mechanisms, they are reluctant to trust autonomous agents for complex and unpredictable situations, especially those involving rapid decisions [84]. Ironically, the increase in adaptability and customization will make autonomous agent less predictable, with the consequence that users might be more reluctant to use them because of the confusion that the adaptation might create [85]. ...
Article
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Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADASs) are used for increasing safety in the automotive domain, yet current ADASs notably operate without taking into account drivers’ states, e.g., whether she/he is emotionally apt to drive. In this paper, we first review the state-of-the-art of emotional and cognitive analysis for ADAS: we consider psychological models, the sensors needed for capturing physiological signals, and the typical algorithms used for human emotion classification. Our investigation highlights a lack of advanced Driver Monitoring Systems (DMSs) for ADASs, which could increase driving quality and security for both drivers and passengers. We then provide our view on a novel perception architecture for driver monitoring, built around the concept of Driver Complex State (DCS). DCS relies on multiple non-obtrusive sensors and Artificial Intelligence (AI) for uncovering the driver state and uses it to implement innovative Human–Machine Interface (HMI) functionalities. This concept will be implemented and validated in the recently EU-funded NextPerception project, which is briefly introduced.
... Lo que resulta interesante es que el grupo ajuste emocional resultó ser el menos eficaz de los cuatro grupos. Esto quiere decir que, así sea el estilo o la consigna, el elemento racional favorece una mayor efectividad Klein, 2005). ...
Article
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Se realizó un estudio explicativo y transversal con el objetivo de analizar la efectividad y los tiempos en la toma de decisiones al momento de brindar una primera ayuda psicológica (PAP) en las fases iniciales de un desastre en función del estilo y el proceso decisorio implicados. Se tomó una muestra no probabilística intencional de 165 voluntarios rescatistas de cuatro cuarteles de la zona de AMBA, se los dividió aleatoriamente en dos grupos (capacitados y no capacitados en PAP) y, a su vez, dichos grupos fueron divididos aleatoriamente respecto de la consigna impartida en la evaluación sobre el proceso decisorio a utilizar (decidir en función de lo que se piensa o de que lo que se siente). Asimismo, cada rescatista fue clasificado como “racional” o “afectivo” según el estilo decisorio urgente medido por el instrumento Bases for Urgent Decisions under Extreme Circumstances Inventory (BUDECI). Los resultados mostraron que los menos efectivos y más lentos fueron aquellos rescatistas capacitados con un estilo urgente decisorio afectivo, bajo una consigna que apelaba también a lo emocional. Este último grupo no presentó diferencias respecto de su efectividad cuando se lo comparó con el grupo de los no capacitados. La mayor efectividad la obtuvieron aquellos grupos que tenían un estilo o una consigna de tipo racional. La capacitación en PAP ha posibilitado la adquisición de estrategias de acción sencillas. Se concluye que el estilo decisorio y/o una inducción decisoria racionales favorecen una mayor efectividad de las acciones de PAP en las fases iniciales de un desastre.
... However, it added considerably to working memory demands, which increased OIs cognitive load. All OIs described some kind of recognition, or 'gut-feeling' (OI2), (see Klein, 2004) which informed their JDM, a heuristic developed through experience and reflection (Klein, 2015). OI7 described: 'The feeling that you get. ...
Article
Over the last ten years there has been growing interest in the judgement and decision making (JDM) of outdoor professionals, though research to date has focused on the JDM processes of experts. In contrast, this study examined the JDM of less experienced, competent, but fully qualified outdoor instructors (N = 9) and the development of their JDM skills. Using semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis, we identified two overarching themes: Firstly, managing the cognitive load (relating to instructor JDM), and secondly social experiential learning (relating to instructor JDM development). We found these outdoor instructors needed to manage complex situational demands and high cognitive loads, while balancing the safety of their group with the development of their own JDM. We propose that a combination of challenging formative experiences, community of practice interactions, and explicit development of metacognition are essential to outdoor instructors JDM development. Implications for training, and future research are discussed.
... However, humans' cognitive models are not likely to represent nonlinear phenomena efficiently, as these events progress far quicker than usual decision-making processes. Unfamiliarity with nonlinearity causes two dreadful effects: it hinders learning and distorts mental rehearsal, which is a well-explored and fundamental step to set up robust intuitive decision-making processes (Kahneman, 2011, Klein, 2004. While intuition is necessary when the previous experience is insufficient to deal with current events, when stakes are high it is critical to mentally rehearse the possible https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105106 ...
Article
Governments worldwide are under enormous pressure to effectively and promptly address the increasingly complex crisis presented by the Covid-19 pandemic. To understand the difficulties inherent to policymakers’ sensemaking and learning processes during this unprecedented challenge, this article develops a perspective rooted in complexity theory. We highlight that, just as complex adaptive systems, societies affected by the pandemic and by the subsequent containment policies present non-linear and unpredictable outcomes, which highly depend on the social systems’ initial states and on the behavioral rules governing the actions and interactions of the agents composing the systems. This analysis underlines that any decision-making process in a highly complex crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic is inherently inaccurate and short-sighted. Far, however, from suggesting a policy paralysis, with this perspective we highlight the need to embed complexity thinking in policy decision-making and we present a roadmap for learning based on a flexible and adaptive approach, locally optimal solutions, and the need for international cooperation and transparent dissemination of data.
... Selon la littérature, le modèle RPD proposé par Klein (1993) pourrait s'apparenter à un contexte de résolution intuitive (Klein, 2003 ;Klein, 2004 ;Danial, Smith, Veitch, & Khan, 2019). L'intuition peut être définie comme la capacité des individus à obtenir immédiatement la solution à un problème sans avoir conscience du traitement cognitif responsable de la survenue de cette solution (Rosenblatt & Thickstun, 1994). ...
Thesis
Dans cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés au raisonnement et à la capacité décisionnelle des experts. A l’exception d’une étude qui est composée de deux populations expertes différentes (Joueurs d’échecs et joueurs de Go), nous nous sommes concentrés sur la population d’expert du jeu d’échecs. Notre objectif initial était de montrer l’influence de certains processus émotionnels dans les décisions expertes. Dans ce travail, nous nous sommes intéressés aux liens pouvant être établis entre la théorie des marqueurs somatiques et les théories en psychologie de l’expertise. Notre idée est que les marqueurs somatiques offrent un cadre intéressant afin d’étudier et de comprendre les performances expertes.Nous avons tout d’abord étudié les capacités de prise de décision générales des experts, en dehors de leur champ d’expertise, à l’aide d’un test spécialement créé pour étudier les marqueurs somatiques (Iowa Gambling Task ; IGT) et d’autres épreuves se focalisant sur les aspects de décision ambiguë (Balloon Analog Risk Task ; BART) et en connaissance des risques (Game of Dice Task ; GDT). L’objectif était de voir si les joueurs d’échecs sont meilleurs que les novices dans ces tâches et de mieux comprendre le type de contexte décisionnel pouvant amener les joueurs experts à dépasser les capacités de la population générale. Nous observons que la prise de décision des experts est meilleure principalement dans le cadre de l’IGT. Ainsi, contrairement à ce qui apparait parfois dans la littérature, les performances des joueurs d’échecs ne semblent pas se limiter exclusivement à leur domaine d’expertise.Nous avons ensuite étudié les décisions des experts au sein de leur domaine de compétence. Nous avons ainsi réalisé deux études utilisant des positions d’échecs. Il s’agit d’une tâche d’amorçage et d’une adaptation de l’effet d’Einstellung (ou effet d’attitude). L’objectif de ces études était d’observer l’influence du traitement automatique des positions sur la performance des joueurs d’échecs. Nos résultats semblent indiquer que les experts procèdent à un traitement automatique des positions pouvant amener à l’activation de schémas et procédures de résolution spécifiques à la situation. Cet activation automatique peut entraîner une amélioration des performances pouvant aller jusqu’à la mise en place d’une décision intuitive pour les joueurs experts. Mais celle-ci peut également venir perturber la décision des joueurs en focalisant leur attention sur des aspects moins pertinents de la situation.Pour ce qui concerne les compétences générales des experts, en dehors de leur champ d’expertise, les résultats obtenus semblent indiquer une utilisation efficace de la voie émotionnelle de la décision responsable de l’activation des marqueurs somatiques. Dans les études menées dans le domaine d’expertise, la théorie des marqueurs somatiques permettrait également, selon nous, d’expliquer les différents modes de décision des experts. Nous proposerons donc dans cette thèse un modèle des décisions expertes incluant la modalité somatique.En résumé, nos résultats semblent indiquer que la théorie des marqueurs somatiques est un cadre interprétatif intéressant pour les décisions expertes. Ces marqueurs sont reliés à de précédentes situations ayant provoqué une réaction émotionnelle et pourraient venir assister les décisions experts dans et hors de leur domaine d’expertise. Néanmoins, de plus amples recherches, incluant des mesures physiologiques, doivent être menées afin de confirmer l’intérêt des marqueurs somatiques dans la décision experte.
... The skill knowledge is a procedural kind of knowledge that is action oriented and well-structured by performing a task unconsciously in a repeated manner. It is all about performing an assigned task in accordance with a given procedure that enable individuals to recognize a pattern as well build mental model via experience (Klein, 2003). ...
Article
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Knowledge play key role in giving meaning to the world we live through the conscious activities of individuals as a reflective process to progressive problem solving. However, the paper focused on knowledge gap as a panacea for conducting research that aid in knowledge building especially in the behavioral research setting. Nevertheless, it argued that research is not just about data collection but an interpretation of facts that give credence to theory building through the process of closing identified gaps in literatures therefore, such theory must be capable of dealing with issues of applicability which are emancipatory to identifying key hidden choices surfaced to inform human inquiry. It concluded that closing the identified gaps only becomes relevant when its outcome contribute to the body of knowledgeby making salient epistemic claims. These claims must be subjected to human inquiry and as such add value to knowledge by explicitly expressing views on the very nature of evidence and how it should be investigated with rigorous methodological standard that would be justifiable. Keywords:Contradictory evidence, experiential knowledge, knowledge claim, skill knowledge, theory building.
... A partir da identificação em relatos de gestores que alegavam decisões pautadas por este estilo, próximo a década de 90 surgiu a tomada de decisão naturalista (KLEIN, 2007) a qual apregoa que a experiência do indivíduo determina seus padrões para estabelecer rotinas mentais. Para Isenberg (1984) quando se estabelece o processo decisório a pessoa é tomada pela intuição em cada fase. ...
... For future research, the concept can be developed further by building on the temporal dimensions (proactive and reactive ADM) with the two types of ADM developed for this study. In addition, the flexible nature of the concept can enable it to be combined with other concepts such as naturalistic decision-making (Zsambok and Klein 2014), intuitive decision-making (Klein 2003;Lunenburg 2010), logic of appropriateness (March 1991;March and Olsen 2011) and logic of consequentiality in decision-making (March 1994). Therefore, we suggest that future research on adaptive decision-making should consider repeated analysis with the decision-making table (see Table 1) for multiple years in order to improve insight on farmers' ADM and learning outcomes. ...
Article
Full-text available
Farming in Ghana's Volta delta is increasingly affected by variability in rainfall conditions and changes in land-use patterns. Under such socio-ecological conditions, little is known about farmers' decision-making in response to uncertainties in uncertain rainfall conditions. To fill this gap and add to the literature on adaptive decision-making, we addressed the central question: what are the existing patterns of farming decision-making under uncertain rainfall conditions, and which decision-making strategies are adaptive? We developed an adaptive decision-making framework to investigate the behavior of farmers under variable rainfall conditions in Ghana's Volta delta in the Ada East District. We conducted 5 interviews with agricultural extension agents, 44 in-depth interviews and 4 focus group discussion with farmers. Subsequently, we interviewed a sub-selection of 32 farmers. Findings of the study shows that farmers carry out different decision-making patterns in response to the variable rainfall conditions. We distinguished six strategies: three based on flexibility and three based on robustness. Flexible adaptive decision-making strategies are switching dates for sowing seeds through wait-and-see or delay strategy, muddling through the farming season with the application of various options and alternative irrigation strategies. Robust adaptive decision-making strategies are portfolio strategy of transplanting seedlings in batches, selection of robust (hardy) crops, and intercropping or diversification. Based on how farmers select strategies in response to uncertainty in rainfall conditions, we argue that some decision-making strategies are more adaptive than others. Findings of this study are relevant for the design and implementation of climate related agricultural projects. ARTICLE HISTORY
... For future research, the concept can be developed further by building on the temporal dimensions (proactive and reactive ADM) with the two types of ADM developed for this study. In addition, the flexible nature of the concept can enable it to be combined with other concepts such as naturalistic decision-making (Zsambok and Klein 2014), intuitive decision-making (Klein 2003;Lunenburg 2010), logic of appropriateness (March 1991;March and Olsen 2011) and logic of consequentiality in decision-making (March 1994). Therefore, we suggest that future research on adaptive decision-making should consider repeated analysis with the decision-making table (see Table 1) for multiple years in order to improve insight on farmers' ADM and learning outcomes. ...
Article
Full-text available
Farming in Ghana's Volta delta is increasingly affected by variability in rainfall conditions and changes in land-use patterns. Under such socio-ecological conditions, little is known about farmers' decision-making in response to uncertainties in uncertain rainfall conditions. To fill this gap and add to the literature on adaptive decision-making, we addressed the central question: what are the existing patterns of farming decision-making under uncertain rainfall conditions, and which decision-making strategies are adaptive? We developed an adaptive decision-making framework to investigate the behavior of farmers under variable rainfall conditions in Ghana's Volta delta in the Ada East District. We conducted 5 interviews with agricultural extension agents, 44 in-depth interviews and 4 focus group discussion with farmers. Subsequently, we interviewed a sub-selection of 32 farmers. Findings of the study shows that farmers carry out different decision-making patterns in response to the variable rainfall conditions. We distinguished six strategies: three based on flexibility and three based on robustness. Flexible adaptive decision-making strategies are switching dates for sowing seeds through wait-and-see or delay strategy, muddling through the farming season with the application of various options and alternative irrigation strategies. Robust adaptive decision-making strategies are portfolio strategy of transplanting seedlings in batches, selection of robust (hardy) crops, and intercropping or diversification. Based on how farmers select strategies in response to uncertainty in rainfall conditions, we argue that some decision-making strategies are more adaptive than others. Findings of this study are relevant for the design and implementation of climate related agricultural projects. ARTICLE HISTORY
... For some, they have become distanced from their intuition in that it may sound like no louder than a faint whisper (Cartwright, 2011). That whisper can be difficult to take seriously when external factors can be much louder (Eisenkraft, 2013;Klein, 2004). For others, there is a complete disconnect from the inner knowledge (Ma-inner wisdom. ...
Thesis
Black and endarkened feminist epistemologies are grounded in the understanding that Black women have ways of knowing and knowledge production that have been overlooked and undervalued in patriarchal, white systems (e.g., academia) (Collins, 2000; Dillard, 2008). In this dissertation, I uplift those ways of knowing. Sister Space is a virtual support group in which I aimed to investigate emotional intimacy, notions of strength and online support group work for Black graduate student women. Using my personal experiences and insights facilitating Sister Space, I center the knowledge and experiences of Black graduate student women. I highlight the various roles I have played in my own life as a Black academic woman in the US, including the support group facilitator (i.e., clinician) and Strong Black woman (Abrams et al., 2014). I highlight complicated scenarios that arose for me conducting Sister Space (e.g., addressing latecomers to group) and offer my recommendations for facilitating virtual support group work (e.g., working with a co-facilitator). I present some of the ways in which “strength” was instilled in me through past experiences (e.g., my mother’s passing) and the tensions in conceptualizations of strength for Black graduate student women (e.g., finding comfort in being “strong,” even if it means caring for others in spite of oneself). Despite previous literature suggesting that pressures to be strong may inhibit emotional intimacy (i.e., intimacy) among Black women (Davis, 2015), I observe and present the ways in which Black graduate student women establish, demonstrate, and conceptualize intimacy (e.g., having another Black woman who one can “really talk to”) within Sister Space. Throughout this dissertation, I stress the importance of listening to Black women and valuing their ways of knowing, including intuition, and knowledge production.
... Matzler et al. emphasize the importance of this step, by explaining how lack of independence or peer pressure may force employees to convey incorrect or sugarcoated information to their managers, which may lead to biased decisions [53]. The authors suggest that managers should create an atmosphere of open dialog where all employees can share their honest opinions and ideas; the authors recommend techniques like the PreMortem exercise [38] to create such an independent environment. ...
Article
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Over the last few years, Collective Intelligence (CI) platforms have become a vital resource for learning, problem solving, decision making and predictions. This rising interest in the topic has to lead to the development of several models and frameworks available in published literature. Unfortunately, most of these models are built around domain-specific requirements, i.e., they are often based on the intuitions of their domain experts and developers. This has created a gap in our knowledge in the theoretical foundations of CI systems and models, in general. In this paper, we attempt to fill this gap by conducting a systematic review of CI models and frameworks, identified from a collection of 9,418 scholarly articles published since 2000. Eventually, we contribute by aggregating the available knowledge from 12 CI models into one novel framework and present a generic model that describes CI systems irrespective of their domains. We add to the previously available CI models by providing a more granular view of how different components of CI systems interact. We evaluate the proposed model by examining it with respect to six popular, ongoing CI initiatives available on the web.
... Klein, G. A. (2003). The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work. ...
Presentation
De acordo com a literatura, os experts ou especialistas utilizam estratégias mais eficazes do que outros e fazem-no com menos esforço, compreendem o significado em padrões que outras pessoas não se apercebem. elaboram modelos mentais abrangentes de situações para apoiar a conceção de sentido e pensamento antecipado, possuem conhecimento amplo e altamente organizado do domínio; e são intrinsecamente motivados a trabalhar em problemas difíceis que aumentam suas capacidades. Adotando esta definição, podemos considerar que os oficias de marinha são experts num conjunto de domínios associados a utilização dos navios, seus sensores e armas em operações marítimas. Não obstante o reconhecimento destas evidencias empíricas, várias comunidades científicas têm desafiado a validade do conceito de expert. Alguns sugere que modelos lineares superam as capacidades e experts; investigadores na área das heurísticas e vieses defendem que os experts também são sujeitos a vieses a semelhança de outros; sociólogos sugerem que se trata de um reconhecimento social; outras comunidades sugerem que as decisões dos experts podem ser substituídas por listas de verificação e procedimentos sustentados em bases de dados; enquanto que os tecnólogos acreditam no advento das substituição dos experts pela inteligência artificial. Presentemente decore o trabalho de revisão dos planos curriculares dos cursos tradicionais da Escola Naval. Neste sentido é importante compreender quais os conhecimentos e competências fundamentais para os futuros oficias da marinha. Seguindo a escola de pensamento de tomadas de decisões naturalista, o presente trabalho pretende apresentar uma metodologia para caraterização das competências e conhecimentos exigidos para a tomada de decisão à bordo dos navios. A metodologia baseia-se na análise de cenários e desenvolve-se em três etapas. A primeira recorrendo a elicitação de conhecimento de profissionais, analisando experiências de tomadas de decisão em situações difíceis ou complexas. Neste processo de análise retrospetiva caracterizam-se as necessidades para a tomada de decisão. A segunda fase passa pela revisão dos programas curriculares, ajustando essencialmente as metodologias adotadas nas unidades curriculares nos últimos dois anos do programa de mestrado, focados na aplicação do conhecimento. A Terceira fase passa pela adoção cenários em contexto educativo, na forma de Problem Based Learning, onde os alunos exercem a prática e aplicam a retrospetiva prospetiva – imaginar que um caso já aconteceu. Estudos apontam que as aplicações desta metodologia, na formação de experts, aumentam em 30% a capacidade de reconhecer e resolver problemas em situações futuras.
... These front-end priming tools put context around the risks dealt with on a day to day basis, and may be computer-based. Whist undertaking activities/tasks, these front-end priming tools should allow the cues to be generated that help operators to recognise patterns that allow them to make decisions to take appropriate action to effect the situation (Klein, 2004). These are essentially tools whereby every reasonably conceivable thing that can go wrong is identified and operators are put into simulated situations to practice implementing controls to quickly recover or soften the consequence. ...
... We would also need to account for the difference between common sense and the broader notion of rationality, and explore and build on relationships to bounded and minimal rationality (Simon 1990;Cherniak 1986). The work of Gary Klein on intuitive decision-making is also of potential use (Klein 2007). And prior psychology work on prototypes and exemplars is worthy of incorporation (Rosch and Lloyd 1978;Smith and Medin 1981). ...
Preprint
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Common sense has always been of interest in AI, but has rarely taken center stage. Despite its mention in one of John McCarthy's earliest papers and years of work by dedicated researchers, arguably no AI system with a serious amount of general common sense has ever emerged. Why is that? What's missing? Examples of AI systems' failures of common sense abound, and they point to AI's frequent focus on expertise as the cause. Those attempting to break the brittleness barrier, even in the context of modern deep learning, have tended to invest their energy in large numbers of small bits of commonsense knowledge. But all the commonsense knowledge fragments in the world don't add up to a system that actually demonstrates common sense in a human-like way. We advocate examining common sense from a broader perspective than in the past. Common sense is more complex than it has been taken to be and is worthy of its own scientific exploration.
... Computers are currently making inroads into new worlds and humankind is witnessing a real game of chess, with a man on one side and technology on the other (Levy & Murnane, 2013). One must remain in constant alert vis-à-vis the interference that can cause the machine screw concerning personal intuitions (Klein, 2004). Finally, it is necessary to require programmers to develop information technology for support rather than domination. ...
Article
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Big Data is now poised to mutate decision-making systems. Indeed, the decision is no longer based solely on the structured information that was hitherto collected and stored by the organization, but also on all data not structured outside the corporate straitjacket. The cloud and the information it contains impacts decisions and the industry is witnessing the emergence of business intelligence 3.0. With the growth of the internet, social networks, connected objects and communication information are now more abundant than ever before, along with rapid and substantial growth in their production. In 2012, 2.5 exabytes of data (one exabyte representing a million gigabytes of data) came every day to swell the ranks of big data (McAfee et al., 2012), which should weigh more than 40 zettabytes from 2020 (Valduriez, 2014) for 30 billion connected devices (
... This method comprises group techniques for identifying, in advance, the risks and problems that may arise in a project prior to its inception. This prior evaluation of scenarios and anticipating potential failures allows the DMP to be strengthened and to avoid impulsive decisions (Klein, 2004(Klein, , 2007. ...
Article
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The decision-making process (DMP) is essential in organizations and has changed due to multidisciplinary research, greatly influenced by the progress in information technologies and computational science. This work’s objective is analysing the progressive interaction between DMP and information technologies and the consequent breakthroughs in how business is conducted since 1950 to recent times. Therefore, a chronological review of the information-driven DMP evolvement is presented. The major landmarks that defined how technology influenced how information is generated, stored, managed, and used for making better decisions, minimizing the uncertainty and gaining knowledge, are covered. The findings showed that even if current data-driven trends in managerial decision making have led to competitive advantages and business opportunities, there is still a gap between the technological capabilities and the organizational needs. Nowadays, it has been reported that the adoption of technology solutions in many companies is faster than their capacity to adapt at managerial level. Aware of this reality, the “Circumplex Hierarchical Representation of Organization Maturity Assessment” (CHROMA) model has been developed. This tool makes it possible to evaluate whether the management of organizations is making decisions using the available data correctly and optimizing their information systems.
... Originally developed by Gary Klein (2003), Claire Johnson refined the use of this tool for incident management (Johnson, 2011(Johnson, , 2014. The approach requires teams to consider what factors or events might be 'fatal' to their proposed plan. ...
Book
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A guide to non-technical skills in emergency management by Dr Peter Hayes, A/Prof Chris Bearman and Donald Gyles is the first book of its kind for emergency management. It was developed as observations from the authors indicated the need to better manage non-technical skills during emergency and incident management; non-technical skills continue to be an area highlighted in investigation reports and inquiries; and discussions with agency partners indicated a a resource like this book would help to educate practitioners deepen their understanding of the non-technical skills literature. What is in the book? A guide to non-technical skills in emergency management seeks to: introduce and highlight the importance of non-technical skills; identify some of the issues and pitfalls that can occur; and describe tools that can help people better manage non-technical skills in operational situations. The content of the book necessarily draws heavily on research conducted during by the Improving decision-making in complex multi-team environments project conducted between 2014–2021. By writing this book the authors hope to provide a consistent framework that allows agencies to manage the various aspects of non-technical skills in a more holistic way. This also encourages agencies to adopt a shared language to discuss, promote and manage these important but often neglected sets of skills. Who is the book for? The book is designed for emergency management practitioners and instructors who wish to understand more about non-technical skills. This may be because they want to improve their own knowledge and practice or be better prepared to coach, mentor or instruct others. Learning and development practitioners may find the book a useful reference source for developing non-technical skills training materials or for enhancing these skills within more technically oriented training units (for example, teaching communication skills in the context of relay pumping). The approach Some readers will be familiar with these skills and will have used them working in various teams. For others, it may be the first time they have encountered them. For the group who are encountering non-technical skills for the first time, the authors have provided a simple overview of each skill and how it can be observed in both training and real operations. For the more experienced practitioners of non-technical skills the authors have included a set of information and challenges to help people to think more deeply about that non-technical skill. + Chapter 1 introduces the concept of non-technical skills and demonstrates how non-technical skills can be operationalised. + Chapters 2 through 8 are the central part of the book and use the Emergency Management Non-Technical Skills (EMNoTS) framework as the basis for discussion of the seven key non-technical skills critical to effective emergency and incident management. + These non-technical skills are: communication, coordination, cooperation, situation awareness, decision making, leadership and managing stress and fatigue. + Each of these non-technical skills is discussed in a separate chapter, with each chapter introducing the non-technical skill and identifying behavioural markers that can be used to observe the skill in action. For readers wanting more detail this is followed by a ‘More information’ section and a section that discusses some of the challenges that may be encountered. + Each chapter also offers suggested readings and links to relevant online resources, in addition to the many references. + Chapter 9 highlights how to use a non-technical skills framework to manage performance. + The final chapter (Chapter 10) identifies implications and opportunities for the management of the non-technical skills.
... 7 Тако је формирана школа која креирање стратегија заснива на формализованом аналитичком систему стратегијског планирања, односно детаљном, логички систематизованом процесу, који је најчешће креирао обимна документа планирања и средњорочне финансијске пројекције, која су често врло брзо постајала ирелевентна јер нису могла да пруже одговоре на динамично окружење. 8 С друге стране, теоретичари као што је Хенри Минзберг (Henry Mintzberg) сматрају да је стратегијско мишљење процес који је заснован на креативности и интуицији, а мање на анализи. По његовом мишљењу, процес стратегијског мишљења треба да створи интегрисану перспективу о компанији/организацији и то није прецизно артикулисана визија правца у којем се треба кретати. ...
Article
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the influences of different types of knowledge and their inherent dynamics on the effectiveness of the decision-making (DM) process. Knowledge dynamics (KD) is envisioned through the lens of the knowledge fields theory while effective DM process is objectivised via organisational appreciation and reward, higher business performance, sustainable partnerships and managerial satisfaction with previous achievements. Design/methodology/approach A questionnaire-based survey was conducted with 275 middle managers from companies operating in the business consulting field. The conceptual and structural model was tested using the partial least squares structural equation modelling technique. Findings The study advances novel insights into the significant positive influences of various knowledge fields on KD on the DM process within real-life business environments. Even though rational knowledge exerts a noteworthy effect on DM, its influence is exceeded by the KD, which proves that integrating emotional and spiritual knowledge in the decisional equation may become a pivotal input to making good managerial decisions regardless of the level of regulation and standardisation in the field. Research limitations/implications The research relied on threefold knowledge fields as predictors for the DM process, thus providing a starting point for the development of more complex models. Originality/value The study emerges as a groundbreaking approach via the integration and application of the knowledge fields theory within a more comprehensive and empirical outlook on the DM process. Simultaneously, it places DM beyond the unidimensional outcomes of rationality and intuition by urging its intricate and interactional nature.
Article
Expert intuition is increasingly considered to be a valid form of knowledge, and research has proven its effectiveness in judgment and decision making in various fields. Theorists seem to recognize the contributions of intuition within evaluative practice, but it has never been well-documented. This article presents a study on expert intuition, addressing the manner in which intuition is developed, as well as how it contributes to producing judgments in the specific context of program evaluation. In-depth, in-person interviews were conducted with eight novice evaluators and eight experienced evaluators in order to assess the contributions of experience and expertise. Two key observations emerged from interview analyses. The first was that intuition is developed through a long, complex, and demanding process in which reflective analysis of experiments, successes, and failures play an essential role; the second was that the development of intuition is fostered by expertise and experience.
Preprint
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In der deutschen Literatur wird das Thema Intuition noch nicht differenziert in seinen wichtigen Facetten betrachtet. Bislang wird Intuition vornehmlich auf Basis der Arbeiten von Prof. Gigerenzer, als Erfahrungsintuition bzw. heuristische Entscheidungen auf Basis sog. Daumenregeln beschrieben. Amerikanische Forschungsarbeiten werden bislang weniger berücksichtigt. Häufig wird unter Intuition das sog., unbegründete Bauchgefühl untersucht (Prof. Klein). Diese Arbeiten gehen sogar soweit, dass antitipatorische Entscheidungen einbezogen werden (Dr. Radin). Daher soll in dieser Studie die Intuition dreigeteilt untersucht werden, um auch die wirklich unbewussten, intuitiven Entscheidungen einzubeziehen. Dieser Ansatz ist besonders innovativ, weil zum Thema Intuition bisher nur Studien auf Basis von Einzeltheorien im Vergleich zur Rationalität vorliegen. In diesem Forschungsprojekt sollen vier wichtige, unterschiedliche Entscheidungsgrundlagen (RHIBA) erstmals zusammenhängend im Vergleich erforscht werden: (R) Rationale, kognitive Entscheidungsfindung, (H) Heuristische Entscheidungen („Faustregeln“), (I) Intuitive Entscheidungen bzw. das sog. Bauchgefühl oder (P) die unbegründete Entscheidung (A) Antizipation) RHIA. Das Fehlen einer solchen zusammenhängenden Untersuchung mag in der Komplexität des Versuchsaufbaus liegen. Für die Forschung und insbesondere die Entwicklung von Anwendungsfeldern wäre das Gelingen eines solchen Prototypens von entscheidender Bedeutung.
Chapter
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Les travaux de Gary Klein offrent un cadre solide et opérationnel pour analyser le processus de décision individuelle en situation réelle. Ses contributions sont utiles tant aux recherches menées en systèmes d’information (Conrado et al., 2016; Godé & Lebraty, 2013; Godé et al., 2019) qu’à celles orientées vers le comportement des individus dans des organisations. Ses travaux ont également été discutés par les plus grands théoriciens de la décision, suscitant des débats parfois passionnés (Kahneman & Klein, 2009). Ce chapitre se concentre sur une des contributions conceptuelles et pratiques majeure de Gary Klein : le processus de reconnaissance immédiate, au cœur de son approche naturaliste.
Article
Psychotherapy research shows that-in individual therapy as in family therapy-some therapists are more effective than others. This highlights the crucial role the therapist plays in a client's improvement. Furthermore, it seems that training may make a difference, as deliberate practice can improve the therapist's effectiveness. In the context of the current renewed awareness of the importance of the person of the therapist in the psychotherapy field, this paper's focus is specifically on the therapist in family therapy practice. There is a long tradition of reflecting on the person of the therapist in the family therapy field, often inspired by the metaphor of the wounded healer. In contrast, focusing on the person op the therapist in the present moment of the therapy session is fairly new. In this paper, we use of the dual process models from cognitive psychology as a frame to reflect on the person of the therapist. We review these dual process models and propose that the intuitive responsivity of the therapist relies on the fast, implicit cognitive system (system 1) and the therapist's self-reflection on the slow, deliberate system (system 2). The therapist's actions in therapy practice then emerge moment-by-moment as an echo of the way these two cognitive systems balance each other. It is optimal if the therapist, attuned to the family's rhythm, can flexibly oscillate between the two systems. In the concluding comments of this paper, reflective questions are posed about what this perspective may mean for family therapy practice, training, and supervision.
Conference Paper
Philosophy is not the first to come to mind when we hear the notion of data. However, in this paper, we philosophise data, meaning, that we dig deep into philosophy in order to figure out how and why humankind elevated data to such a prestigious position that we do not believe it deserves. Our departure point is Russell Ackoff's hierarchy of mental content types, which we supplement with a historical overview of the human (particularly scientific) thinking since the first industrial revolution. In a sense, we explore the origins of positivism. We synthesise the works of Michael Polányi, Theodore Roszak and Gregory Bateson to find a more meaningful position, in which data and knowledge are different but can (and should) coexist. With Jerome Bruner, we argue that data can be used to support and elaborate ideas or to serve as sources of ideas-but ideas do not come from data.
Thesis
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The way that children and families social workers make judgements and take decisions in their day-today practice has been an area of significant interest in the early part of the twenty-first century. However, the sensemaking process that underpins decision-making and judgement has received comparatively little scholarly attention. Social work supervision should offer a space where sensemaking can take place individually and collaboratively, yet little is known about what actually happens in supervision. This study contributes to addressing these gaps; using an ethnographic approach it explores how one-to-one supervision, informal supervision and peer discussion, and group case discussion support social workers' sensemaking. Data are derived from semi-structured interviews (n=22), recordings of formal one-to-one supervision sessions (n=17), and from participant observation of office case-talk (n=19) and group supervision (n=2) across two local authorities. The analysis highlights that social work sensemaking involves the process of constructing a case narrative through three stages: initial formulations, developing the narrative, and adopted accounts. Five key themes, situated within the first two sensemaking stages, are explored in presenting the analysis: case framing, case history, testing and weighing information, generating hypotheses, and feelings and relationships. In exploring key themes from the interview, supervision, and observation data, a key finding of the study is the context-dependence of how case narratives are presented and the role identity plays in these differing presentations. The way in which functions of supervision are dispersed across teams in day-today practice will also be highlighted as a key finding. Recommendations for practice are made, including the need for organisations to provide social workers and supervisors with spaces where they can engage with the emotional and relational aspects of their practice and explore their identity as social workers.
Chapter
In this chapter, I revisit key tenets of Routine Dynamics (RD) research to take stock of its progress and note areas for further development, and then show how strong process-cum-practice perspective, which I have called performative phenomenology, may be drawn upon to advance RD research. I argue that RD research will need to: explore how tacit knowledge affects routine enactment; better understand exogenously originated deliberate change in routines; and take explicitly on board the moral dimension of routine enactment.
Chapter
Decision support systems (DSS) began as a radical movement in opposition to the total management information systems (MIS) orthodoxy of the 1970s. MIS aimed to support all decisions for all managers in an organization while DSS were small-scale systems developed in an evolutionary, exploratory way to support a manager making an important decision. DSS has remained a significant part of managerial and executive work to this day. By 2020, large-scale business intelligence and analytics (BI&A) systems emerged as the major information technology (IT) expenditure in organizations—large-scale decision support had become mainstream. Using the dual process theory of decision cognition from behavioral economics as a theory lens, we analyze decision support history and identify which decisions in organizations can effectively be supported by different decision support approaches. Our analysis is at odds with IT vendors’ and consultants’ marketing narratives. We find that BI&A and data science are mainly appropriate for well-understood operational decisions, while DSS is the only approach that effectively supports strategic decision-making. We suggest that large-scale BI&A and small-scale DSS will continue to coexist into the future; the first controlled by IT departments, the second by business managers and executives.
Chapter
In diesem Kapitel wird erläutert, warum die Leistungsfähigkeit von Emotionen überschätzt wird. Ein Blick auf die Ratgeberliteratur lässt einen staunend zurück: Da wird mit dem Bauch gedacht, entschieden und die Welt wäre besser, wenn wir immer auf unsere Emotionen hören würden. Wenn es nur so wäre. Emotionen haben ihren zentralen Platz im menschlichen Verhalten und Erleben, aber sie können Denken nicht ersetzen. Emotionen sind alte Standardprogramme, die zu vielen schwierigen Situationen nicht passen, denen wir heutzutage ausgesetzt sind.
Chapter
In diesem Kapitel zeigen wir: Man kann Situationen nur dann in ihrem Kern verstehen und klug entscheiden, wenn man Unsicherheit aushält und seiner Denkfaulheit ein Schnippchen schlägt. Nicht jeden Fehler muss man selbst begehen, sondern man kann von anderen lernen, gerade auch aus deren Fehlern. Überheblichkeit ist dabei fehl am Platz. Was im bequemen Sessel ganz leicht aussieht, ist es unter starkem Stress nicht. In diesem Kapitel werden die Situationen unmittelbar vor bekannten Fehlentscheidungen analysiert.
Chapter
In diesem Ausblick nennen wir Aspekte von Entscheidungen, die wichtig sind und die wir in diesem Buch nur gestreift haben. Menschen unterscheiden sich in ihren Werten, Einstellungen und in ihrer Persönlichkeit. Deshalb entscheiden Menschen unterschiedlich. Wenn mehrere Menschen entscheiden, kommt eine weitere Facette hinzu: Gruppeneffekte. Und schließlich spielt die emotionale Stabilität und die kognitive Leistungsfähigkeit von Führungskräften eine zentrale Rolle für deren Mitarbeiter.
Chapter
In diesem Kapitel möchten wir Sie überzeugen, dass sich die Anstrengung selbst zu denken lohnt. (Grams, 2016, 13) spricht von einer Denkfalle, wenn ein eigentlich bewährter Denkmechanismus einsetzt, der mit einer konkreten Situation nicht zurechtkommt. Tappen Sie nicht in die Falle automatischen Denkens. Denken Sie kontrolliert. Denken hilft! Warum tun wir es dann so selten? Weil es anstrengend ist. Wir müssen dafür die emotional gebahnten bequemen Routinen verlassen.
Article
Theories of decision-making have long been important foundations for information systems (IS) research and much of IS is concerned with information processing for decision making. The discipline of behavioral economics (BE) provides the dominant contemporary approach for understanding human decision-making. Therefore, it is logical that IS research that involves decision making should consider BE as foundation or reference theory. Surprisingly, and despite calls for greater use of BE in IS research, it seems that IS has been slow to adopt contemporary BE as reference theory. This paper reports a critical analysis of BE in all fields of IS based on an intensive investigation of quality IS research using bibliometric content analysis. The analysis shows that IS researchers have a general understanding of BE, but their use of the theories has an ad hoc feel where only a narrow range of BE concepts and theories tend to form the foundation of IS research. The factors constraining the adoption of BE theories in IS are discussed and strategies for the use of this influential foundation theory are proposed. Guidance is provided on how BE could be used in various aspects of IS. The paper concludes with the view that BE reference theory has the potential to transform significant areas of IS research.
Chapter
One of the difficulties in research of insight problem solving is that insight solutions are hard to control consciously. Moreover, participants cannot verbally report about problem solving [14] or evaluate their progress to the answer [11]. In this study we assumed that metacognitive hints could enhance an insight solution effectiveness. The hints may be helpful to participants’ progress monitoring, understanding of contradictions and conflicts in insight problems. To test this hypothesis, we conducted the experiment where participants had to solve the Five-Square problem under one of two conditions: a) control – experimenter periodically gave supportive statements to participants (for example, “You will succeed”, “You can do it”); b) experimental – experimenter periodically gave metacognitive hints to participants (for example, “What prevents you from solving the problem?”, “What else can you use?”). We compared the number of solvers who successfully solved the problem within 15 min in each group. As a result, we found that the insight problem is more likely to be solved in the condition with metacognitive hints than in the condition with supportive statements. The result indicates that an incentive to conflict analysis plays a greater role in insight problem solving compared to the motivation to solve.
Article
Research demonstrates that people utilize both reasoning and feeling in decision making and that both strategies can be advantageous. However, little is known about how people perceive their decision making relative to others. Despite research findings and popular appeals supporting the use of affective decision processes, across a series of studies, we find that individuals believe they rely more on reasoning, and less on feelings, than others. These effects are driven by the motivation to self‐enhance where, in most contexts, individuals believe the use of reasoning is superior, and self‐enhancing, compared to the use of feelings. Consistent with this mechanism, beliefs that one’s decisions are more rational than others’ are: (a) stronger for those who exhibit greater beliefs in the superiority of reasoning (vs. feeling), (b) attenuated when the decision context precludes motivational thinking about the self or the self is affirmed, and (c) reversed when the use of feelings is perceived as more self‐enhancing. We demonstrate downstream consequences (e.g., decision delegation), rule out alternative explanations, and discuss practical implications of these lay beliefs.
Thesis
The gut feelings criteria have been formulated from the GPs’ descriptions of their own practices. The ‘sense of reassurance’ and the ‘sense of alarm’ constitute a dynamic element in a GP’s diagnostic process, helping to commute between nonanalytical and analytical diagnostic reasoning. The Gut Feelings Questionnaire was translated into French, German and Polish languages following astandardized procedure of linguistic validation. The GFQ was then tested in real practice settings during office hours to check its feasibility in Belgium, France and The Netherlands. The internal consistency was high (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.88).The sense of alarm was identified as one major factor conducting to the positive diagnosis of pulmonary embolism after analyzing qualitative interviews of GPs. The GFQ was also used in a prospective study aiming at calculating the accuracy of the sense of alarm when facing a thoracic pain and a dyspnea at GP’s office. Feeling a sense of alarm in this situation drove the GPs to the diagnosis of a serious disease two times more than without. The sense of alarm can be seen as a complementary tool for learning how to prevent error in primary care. It is the first model where error prevention is associated with decision making at a very early stage in general practice. Further research concerning cancer suspicion and teaching the gut feelings should be promoted.
Article
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This article contributes to the debate about rigor and relevance in management and organization research. The contribution derives from an empirical inquiry into the view of the research process of acknowledged experts in scientific research: Nobel Laureates. The research was conducted through loosely structured in-depth interviews with, and background information about, 19 of these expert researchers. The analysis of the interviews suggests emergent themes of the process of successful research that are likely to be relevant to the conduct of management and organization research. We focus on three themes from our interviews: the role of the "big leap" and its relationship to intuition; the significance of seeing both the "big picture" and the detail; and the ways of building and developing successful research teams. We set out our findings from the interviews in the context of the literature from history and philosophy of science and examine the implications for management and organization research.
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