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Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. (The SREX Report)

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... Climate change has already changed the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events as it is a key causative factor in increased heat waves, flooding, droughts, intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels, and loss of biodiversity. These hazards increase the vulnerability to disasters and result in widespread human, material, economic and environmental losses (IPCC, 2012). ...
... The impacts of climate change on people's livelihoods have been widely documented (IPCC, 2012). It is expected that climate and environmental change will hamper poverty reduction, or even exacerbate poverty in some or all of its dimensions. ...
... Prior to conducting AI education, as part of efforts to improve the educational environment, the Korean government announced the SMART education policy that curriculum, teaching, and learning methodology should become selective, integrative, and custom-made education, which is "self-directed, motivated, adaptive, resource-enriched, and technologyembedded" (Ministry of Education, 2011, 2012, 2015. And, in a similar context, the Korean government also announced the "software education" policy to secure national competitiveness in a software-driven society in which software is central to innovation, growth, and value creation by preparing for a future society through software education (Ministry of Education, 2016). ...
Book
SEAMEO BIOTROP has been assigned by the Ministry of Education and Culture of the Republic of Indonesia to revitalise secondary vocational high school in agriculture for the last three years. There were three main programmes, i.e. fruit tree gardening, food security, and the establishment of a teaching factory. The activities include training, field implementation, and supervision. There were 46 schools that have been selected for the implementation of fruit tree gardening, and 80 schools have been involved in the food security and teaching factory programmes. This has been a successful programme, where the capacity of the headmasters, teachers, and students have improved. SEAMEO BIOTROP has not only transferred innovation developed by the Centre but also involved universities (IPB University) and an agriculture research centre (Orange and Sub-tropical Fruit Research Centre under the Ministry of Agriculture) in implementing the programme. Most of the partner schools have implemented the technology introduced by SEAMEO BIOTROP and partner institutions in their schools and the surrounding farms. The SEAMEO BIOTROP scientists have developed an application to monitor the progress of the schools and also to sustain long-distance consultation. The programmes have shown that secondary vocational high schools in agriculture have the potential to be developed as a transfer technology hub in agriculture for their surrounding communities and farmers. Skill development in industry 4.0 in the area of agriculture could also be introduced to selected schools in the future
... Extreme climatic events are expected to increase globally and adversely affect natural ecosystems (IPCC 2012, Peterson et al. 2012, Seidl et al. 2015, Trenberth et al. 2015. ...
... Borken and Matzner (2008), indicated probable reduction in the mineralization and fluxes of C and N due to increased summer droughts and enhanced C and N losses from soils as a result of increased summer precipitation. As the earth is under constant warming due to global heating, and precipitation regimes are expected to become more erratic (Solomon et al. 2007, IPCC 2012; and more frequent monsoon failures are predicted in the Himalayas due to changes in Indian summer monsoon Levermann 2012, Menon et al. 2013), the soil water content will play an important role for the transient response of ecosystem C balance to climatic changes (Lee et al. 2010). Our results indicate that there is a strong seasonal variation in the responses of soil respiration to reduced precipitation and seasonal variation of volumetric soil water content is an important factor influencing the seasonal soil respiration rates. ...
... Asian region including the Tibetan Plateau(IPCC 2012, Schewe and Levermann 2012, Shrestha et al. 2012, Turner and Annamalai 2012) however, there is still ambiguity about the ways in which global warming will manifest itself in the Himalayas and across the varying localities in the region(Shrestha et al. 2012).Data on precipitation are not consistent; the precipitation has increased in some areas while in some areas has decreasing trend.Model predictions imply frequent Indian summer monsoon failures in the next 200 years (Schewe and Levermann 2012). However, Tsering et al. (2010) predicts a significant increase in the summer precipitation and 20 -30 % reduction in winter rainfall in Bhutan for the 2050's. ...
Thesis
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The Himalayas are predicted to experience more than three times the mean global rise in temperature, as well as erratic rainfall patterns and an increased likelihood for total monsoon failures. While many ecosystem manipulation experiments aiming at understanding the effects of altered precipitation, temperature and CO2 are conducted globally, such experiments are rare in Asia and missing particularly in the Himalayas. Thus, to fill this gap, we simulated late onset of the monsoon precipitation as well as total monsoon failures in a multi-year drought stress experiment in Bhutan. With these experiments, we hope to understand how altered monsoon precipitation alters ecosystem productivity, dynamics and ecosystem C fluxes. Our main objective is to characterize the ecosystem responses to drought in cool-temperate conifer and broadleaved forests along an altitudinal gradient in the Bhutan Himalayas. For this study we applied two treatments, (1) 100 % throughfall exclusion and (2) ambient control plots, were two 725 m2 plots (25m × 29 m), each with two replicates, in a Hemlock (Tsuga dumosa) dominated and Oak (Quercus lanata and Quercus griffithii) dominated ecosystem at 3260 and 2460 m altitude, respectively. Roof application reduced the volumetric soil water content in the upper 0- 20 cm soil layer by ~ 20 % in coniferous and by ~ 31% in broadleaved forest and the deeper soil layers were less affected. Soil CO2 efflux was similar between the two forests (2015: 14.5 ± 1.2 t C yr-1 broadleaved; 12.8 ± 1.0 t C yr-1 coniferous). Annual contribution of autotrophic respiration was ~ 45 % at both forests with a low autotrophic contribution during winter and high contribution during the monsoon season. Further results on plant water potentials and sap flux suggest that Oaks are better adapted to drought as the conifer species. Particularly evergreen Oaks seem to possess more effective drought tolerance mechanisms compared to T. dumosa and R. arboreum. The results provide insights into impacts of climate change on future forest development and suggests management practices for the Bhutan Himalayas, as the drought tolerant and water saving strategies of the oaks may be a selective advantage over the conifer species. Besides, we could also demonstrate that large scale throughfall exclusion experiments can be successfully conducted even in a remote Bhutan Himalayan setting. The experiences gathered could be utilized for future long term ecological monitoring studies in the Himalayan region.
... Similarly Pakistan is facing an increasing number of heatwaves ). Due to climate change the frequency and intensity of heatwaves is projected to further increase over many land areas in the world, including South Asia, (IPCC, 2012). ...
... It is projected that due to climate change, the number of hot days and length of heatwave periods will increase over most land areas like Europe, Africa, Asia, America, etc. (IPCC 2012;Stapleton et al. 2016). As a result, the prevalence of heat stress related illness will also tend to rise (Heal et al. 2003). ...
Technical Report
Final technical report on - Combating heat stress in South Asia - A Cross-CARIAA effort
... La investigación futura debería centrarse en las medidas climáticas participativas y sostenibles, en el papel de los CET y en los factores impulsores de éxito en las respuestas climáticas relacionadas con los bosques, así como en la eficacia potencial a escala mundial de las medidas conjuntas de adaptación y mitigación para los Pueblos Indígenas dependientes de los bosques. the rate of climate change by managing its causal factors (IPCC 2012). Furthermore, responses by forest-dependent peoples can differ in their driving forces; measures can be initiated and supported by external bodies such as NGOs, governmental institutions, and development cooperation or can originate intrinsically from a household or community initiative. ...
... Coping strategies seek to overcome adverse conditions to return to basic functioning with a rather short-term vision (for example, one season). Coping strategies mainly refer to (unplanned) ex-post actions to reduce adverse effects of hazards (IPCC 2012). Adaptation strategies are typically ex-ante and aim to adjust to actual or expected climate changes and their long-term effects. ...
Article
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The global diversity of forest use and management responses of forest-dependent Indigenous peoples to climate change remains poorly understood and lacks synthesis. Yet, such knowledge is essential for informed policy decisions and inclusive mitigation strategies. Through a systematic literature review, forest-dependent Indigenous peoples' responses to climate change and extreme weather events were analysed, including the prevalence of the strategies, their drivers, the role of sensitivity to climate change and the integration of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in forest use and management. Also, an assessment was made of how forest dependence and traditional knowledge are acknowledged in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). The results show knowledge clusters around coping and adaptation, mitigation, and joint strategies in North and South America and Asia. Multiple Correspondence Analysis showed that articles documenting adaptation strategies were associated to a reactive response time, Indigenous peoples as drivers and the integration of TEK and information on their climate sensitivity. The diversity of applied strategies found, mostly related to non-timber forest products (NTFPs), comprised ecologically sustainable and unsustainable practices. Mitigation strategies, mostly REDD+ projects, which were significantly associated with proactive and external initiatives, largely omitted information on the sensitivity of the studied Indigenous group and the involvement of traditional knowledge. Joint strategies seem to be a good compromise of participatory efforts and were largely linked to integrating Indigenous peoples' traditional knowledge. Knowledge gaps include evidence of forest-related resilient livelihood strategies. Future research should focus on participatory and sustainable climate measures, the role of TEK and the drivers for the success of forest-related climate responses, as well as the potential effectiveness of joint adaptation-mitigation measures for forest-dependent Indigenous peoples on a global scale. Ajustements de l'utilisation et de la gestion des forêts par les peuples Indigènes dans le contexte du changement climatique: une étude systématique de la littérature globale T. BAUER La diversité de l'utilisation des forêts et des réponses de gestion au changement climatique par les peuples Indigènes dépendantes de la forêt demeure peu comprise à l'échelle globale et n'a pas connu de synthèse à ce jour. Or, une telle connaissance est nécessaire pour informer les décisions de politique et les stratégies d'atténuation proportionnelle. Les réponses des peuples Indigènes dépendant de la forêt au changement climatique et aux évènements climatiques extrêmes ont été analysées à l'aide d'une étude systématique de la littérature, en incluant la prévalence des stratégies, des agents de celles-ci, le rôle de la sensibilité au changement climatique et à l'intégration de la connaissance écologique traditionnelle (TEK) dans l'utilisation et la gestion de la forêt. Une évaluation du degré auquel la dépendance à la forêt et la connaissance traditionnelle ont été reconnues dans les Contributions déterminées nationalement (NDCs) et les Plans d'adaptation nationaux a été également dressée. Les résultats indiquent des regroupements autour de l'adaptation et de la lutte, de l'atténuation et des stratégies jointes en Amérique du nord et du sud, et en Asie. Une analyse de correspondances multiples montrait que les articles documentant les stratégies d'adaptation étaient 2 T. Bauer associés à un temps de réponse réactive, aux motivations des peuplades Indigènes à l'intégration de la TEK et de l'information sur leur sensibilité de ceux-ci au climat. La diversité des stratégies appliquées relevées, liées pour la plupart aux produits forestier non ligneux (PFNL), comprenaient des pratiques soutenables écologiquement, mais également non-durables. Les stratégies d'atténuation, pour la plupart des projets de la REDD+, étaient associées majoritairement à des initiatives extérieures et proactives, et laissaient majoritairement de côté les informations sur la sensibilité des groupes indigènes étudiés et sur la part faite aux connaissances traditionnelles. Les stratégies jointes semblent former un compromis acceptable des efforts participatifs et sont largement liées à une intégration de la connaissance traditionnelle des peuples Indigènes. Les hiatus dans la connaissance incluent le manque de preuves quant aux stratégies pour obtenir des revenus durables liés à la forêt. La recherche future devrait se concentrer sur des mesures climatiques participatives et durables, le rôle de la TEK et les motivations conduisant au succès des réponses climatiques, ainsi que sur l'efficacité potentielle de mesures jointes d'adaptation/atténuation pour les peuples Indigènes dépendantes de la forêt à l'échelle globale. Ajustes en el uso y la gestión de los bosques por parte de los Pueblos Indígenas en un contexto de cambio climático-una revisión bibliográfica sistemática global T. BAUER La diversidad global del uso de los bosques y las respuestas de gestión de los Pueblos Indígenas dependientes de los bosques al cambio climático sigue siendo poco conocida y carece de síntesis. Sin embargo, este conocimiento es esencial para tomar decisiones políticas informadas y estrategias de mitigación inclusivas. El estudio hizo una revisión bibliográfica sistemática para analizar las respuestas de los Pueblos Indígenas dependientes de los bosques al cambio climático y a los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos, que incluyó la prevalencia de las estrategias, sus impulsores, el papel de la sensibilidad al cambio climático y la integración de los conocimientos ecológicos tradicionales (CET) en el uso y la gestión de los bosques. Asimismo, evaluó cómo se reconocen la dependencia de los bosques y los conocimientos tradicionales en las Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional (CDN) y los Planes Nacionales de Adaptación (PNA). Los resultados muestran grupos de conocimientos similares en torno a las estrategias de respuesta y adaptación, mitigación y conjuntas en América del Norte y del Sur y en Asia. Un Análisis de Correspondencias Múltiples mostró que los artículos que documentaban las estrategias de adaptación estaban asociados a un tiempo de respuesta reactivo, a los Pueblos Indígenas como impulsores y a la integración de los CET y la información sobre su sensibilidad climática. La diversidad de las estrategias aplicadas encontradas, en su mayoría relacionadas con los productos forestales no maderables (PFNM), incluyó prácticas ecológicamente sostenibles y no sostenibles. Las estrategias de mitigación, en su mayoría proyectos REDD+, que se asociaron significativamente con iniciativas proactivas y externas, omitieron en gran medida la información sobre la sensibilidad del grupo Indígena estudiado y la participación del conocimiento tradicional. Las estrategias conjuntas parecen ser un buen compromiso a los esfuerzos participativos y están vinculadas en gran medida a la integración de los conocimientos tradicionales de los Pueblos Indígenas. Entre las lagunas de conocimiento están la evidencia sobre estrategias de medios de vida resilientes relacionadas con los bosques. La investigación futura debería centrarse en las medidas climáticas participativas y sostenibles, en el papel de los CET y en los factores impulsores de éxito en las respuestas climáticas relacionadas con los bosques, así como en la eficacia potencial a escala mundial de las medidas conjuntas de adaptación y mitigación para los Pueblos Indígenas dependientes de los bosques.
... This paper considers hazard and exposure, along with socioeconomic social vulnerability, as sources of risk (35)(36)(37)(38) , and develops a more complete understanding of socioeconomic vulnerability social vulnerability of communities for risk-based flood hazard management and resilience options (39,40) . Socioeconomic vulnerability Social vulnerability is characterized in terms of communities (i.e., census-tract level population subgroups) experiencing a loss in social wellbeing (i.e., lower F o r P e e r R e v i e w 6 index scores) before floods occur (17) . ...
... Physical exposure 1 should be combined with hazard and vulnerability to define and practically understand the extents of flood risk at the local level (6,34) . This paper considers hazard and exposure, along with social vulnerability, as sources of risk (35)(36)(37)(38) , and develops a more complete understanding of social vulnerability of communities for risk-based flood hazard management and resilience options (39,40) . Social vulnerability is characterized in terms of communities (i.e., census-tract level population subgroups) experiencing a loss in social wellbeing (i.e., lower index scores) before floods occur (17) . ...
Article
This study presents the first nationwide spatial assessment of flood risk to identify social vulnerability and flood exposure hotspots that support policies aimed at protecting high-risk populations and geographical regions of Canada. The study used a national-scale flood hazard dataset (pluvial, fluvial, and coastal) to estimate a 1-in-100-year flood exposure of all residential properties across 5721 census tracts. Residential flood exposure data were spatially integrated with a census-based multidimensional social vulnerability index (SoVI) that included demographic, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic indicators influencing vulnerability. Using Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association (BiLISA) cluster maps, the study identified geographic concentration of flood risk hotspots where high vulnerability coincided with high flood exposure. The results revealed considerable spatial variations in tract-level social vulnerability and flood exposure. Flood risk hotspots belonged to 410 census tracts, 21 census metropolitan areas, and eight provinces comprising about 1.7 million of the total population and 51% of half-a-million residential properties in Canada. Results identify populations and the geographic regions near the core and dense urban areas predominantly occupying those hotspots. Recognizing priority locations is critically important for government interventions and risk mitigation initiatives considering socio-physical aspects of vulnerability to flooding. Findings reinforce a better understanding of geographic flood-disadvantaged neighbourhoods across Canada, where interventions are required to target preparedness, response, and recovery resources that foster socially just flood management strategies.
... Among them, drought is considered a common natural disaster worldwide [6], especially in Asia, Africa, and Australia, where extreme drought events occur most frequently [7]. Compared with other common disasters, drought does not happen all of a sudden; it is a slow-onset "creeping" disaster [8] that can have far-reaching effects on a community [9]. Drought risk will continue to rise due to the long-term impacts of climate change and population growth [10,11]. ...
... In the study area, winter drought occurred most frequently, while spring drought events happened least frequently, which was probably because precipitation in the region mainly occurred in the period from April to June [39]. In 2003In , 2007In , 2011In , 2013, droughts occurred throughout the study area. The events of moderate or more severe drought in 2003, 2011, and 2013 were basically consistent with the research results of Gu and Liu [51]. ...
Article
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It is important to reveal the spatial and temporal variations of drought and evaluate the alleviating effects of artificial precipitation on drought severity, as it will contribute immensely to the formulation of drought prevention and mitigation measures and the provision of guidance to artificial precipitation enhancement operation. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 28 meteorological stations in Hengyang-Shaoyang Drought Corridor (HSDC) from 1960 to 2019, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple time scales were calculated to estimate drought frequency, drought station ratio, and drought intensity. Then the spatiotemporal variations of drought in the study area were unveiled, and the effects of artificial precipitation enhancement were evaluated in line with the relevant data from 2005 to 2019. The results show that at the annual scale, drought occurred in 3/4 of past sixty years in the study area, where almost 1/3 of such years experienced area-wide droughts. Drought coverage in HSDC exhibited a decreasing trend, but drought intensity, as well as the number of area-wide droughts and regional droughts showed an increasing one. Mild and moderate droughts occurred in an extensive part of the HSDC, whereas severe and extreme droughts were mainly found in a few stations. At the seasonal scale, winter drought occurred most frequently, followed by summer and autumn droughts, while spring drought events had the lowest frequency. Overall, drought is more serious in spring, autumn, and winter, but less severe in summer; although drought intensity decreased slightly in summer, both its intensity and coverage showed an increasing trend in other seasons. At the monthly scale, the ratio of positive to negative SPI values in HSDC was basically balanced in the past six decades, exhibiting no distinct variation characteristics. In addition, artificial precipitation enhancement effectively eased monthly and even seasonal drought in HSDC. These findings, which fully reflect the characteristics of drought in the study area, can also raise awareness of the contribution that artificial precipitation could make to drought mitigation, which in turn will contribute to the formulation of appropriate strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
... In any case, what was discussed before only applies to the meteorological hazard. In the context of climate change, Fig. 2.2 illustrates a framework that allows for a better description of disaster risk (IPCC, 2012). In this risk framework, hazard is only one aspect of disaster risk, whereas vulnerability and exposure describe the societal aspects of disaster risk. ...
Thesis
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Climate-driven extremes have become more common during the past few years. Even on the small scale of Belgium, it is clear that climate change exacerbates many extremes, such as droughts or floods. Consequently, the question arises how extremes will evolve under further climate change. By coupling different models, scientists can answer this question ever more precisely and with more certainty. Yet, there is much research yet to do, as there are many subquestions currently unanswered or with only an uncertain answer. Mathematical methods help to answer the remaining questions or to refine the answers. Stochastic methods are a very useful type of mathematical methods, as allow for expressing climate and weather in function of probability. This bypasses the complexity that can be found everywhere in Earth’s weather system. In this dissertation, two groups of stochastic methods are discussed which are applied later in the impact modelling chain. On the one hand, bias-adjusting methods allow for adjusting the biases in climate models. However, these methods are themselves affected by climate change. On the other hand, stochastic weather generators allow for extrapolating time series and thus a better extreme value inference. Both groups of methods can be of importance when studying climate impacts, but can simultaneously increase uncertainty. Although there are currently many challenges, such as heatwaves, droughts and floods, only the latter is focused on in this PhD. River floods have been shown to be an important challenge, whether it is on the global, European or Belgian scale. For example, the floods of July 2021 illustrated how our country is currently poorly adapted to such extremes. By focusing on extreme precipitation and floods, the problems discussed in this PhD and the resulting uncertainty on climate change impact, can be situated within a tangible framework.
... The occurrence of undernourishment in Africa has increased from 17.6 to 19.1% of the population from the year 2014 to 2019, which is more than twice the world average and the highest globally (FAO, 2020). At the same time, numerous climate studies and simulation reports have confirmed that climate change is a major constraint, significantly negatively impacting on agriculture productivity livelihoods and food security (IPCC, 2012;Ramirez-Villegas et al., 2017;Girvetz et al., 2019). The CIMP5 project with the GCM model predicted a rise in the environmental temperature of Africa of 1.7 • C, 2.7 • C, and 4.5 • C by the years 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively (Girvetz et al., 2019). ...
Article
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In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), both crop production and the hidden hunger index (HHI, a combination of zinc, iron, and vitamin A deficiency), continue to be worse than the rest of the world. Currently, 31 out of 36 countries of SSA show the highest HHI. At the same time, several studies show climate change as a major constraint to agriculture productivity and a significant threat to SSA food security without significant action regarding adaptation. The food security of SSA is dependent on a few major crops, with many of them providing largely only an energy source in the diet. To address this, crop diversification and climate-resilient crops that have adaptation to climate change can be used and one route toward this is promoting the cultivation of African orphan (neglected or underutilized) crops. These crops, particularly legumes, have the potential to improve food and nutrition security in SSA due to their cultural linkage with the regional food habits of the communities, nutritionally rich food, untapped genetic diversity, and adaptation to harsh climate conditions and poor marginal soils. Despite the wide distribution of orphan legumes across the landscape of SSA, these important crop species are characterized by low yield and decreasing utilization due in part to a lack of improved varieties and a lack of adequate research attention. Genomic-assisted breeding (GAB) can contribute to developing improved varieties that yield more, have improved resilience, and high nutritional value. The availability of large and diverse collections of germplasm is an essential resource for crop improvement. In the Genetic Resources Center of the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, the collections of orphan legumes, particularly the Bambara groundnut, African yambean, and Kersting's groundnut, have been characterized and evaluated for their key traits, and new collections are being undertaken to fill gaps and to widen the genetic diversity available to underpin breeding that can be further utilized with GAB tools to develop faster and cost-effective climate-resilient cultivars with a high nutrition value for SSA farmers. However, a greater investment of resources is required for applying modern breeding to orphan legume crops if their full potential is to be realized.
... In addition, most of the in situ studies have not considered the ability of the forest to deal with droughts, measured by the plant hydraulic traits. Considering that the impact caused by climate changes does not depend exclusively on extreme events, but also on the ability of plants to resist the changes they are exposed and, due to limited knowledge of the vulnerability of tropical forests to droughts (extreme or seasonal) [45,46], we evaluated ecophysiological attributes of drought tolerance. ...
Article
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Long-term meteorological analyzes suggest an increase in air temperature and a decrease in rainfall over the Amazon biome. The effect of these climate changes on the forest remains unresolved, because field observations on functional traits are sparse in time and space, and the results from remote sensing analyses are divergent. Then, we analyzed the drought response in a ‘terra firme’ forest fragment in the southwestern Amazonia, during an extreme drought event influenced by ENSO episode (2015/2017), focusing on stem growth, litter production, functional traits and forest canopy dynamics. We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), corrected by Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) to generate the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and green chromatic coordinate (Gcc) vegetation indices. We monitor stem growth and measure the functional traits of trees in situ, such as the potential at which the plant loses 50% of hydraulic conductivity (P50), turgor loss point (πTLP), hydraulic safety margin (HSM) and isohydricity. Our results suggest that: (a) during the dry season, there is a smooth reduction in EVI values (browning) and an increase in the wet season (greening); (b) in the dry season, leaf flush occurs, when the water table still has a quota at the limit of the root zone; (c) the forest showed moderate resistance to drought, with water as the primary limiting factor, and the thickest trees were the most resistant; and (d) a decline in stem growth post-El-Niño 2015/2016 was observed, suggesting that the persistence of negative rainfall anomalies may be as critical to the forest as the drought episode itself.
... Studies have shown that global warming and the other changes in the climate system triggered by it are unprecedented over decades and even millennia. The changes in the climate system have led to the accentuation of the adverse effects of gradual events and the frequency of extreme weather and climate events (emergencies) [45], which have posed significant risks to natural and human systems on all continents and oceans, severely affecting the dynamics of ecosystems. Southwest China is a key ecologically vulnerable region, and the frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events in recent years [46] has seriously affected the regional ecological security pattern [47]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Global warming and its associated changes in temperature and precipitation have significantly affected the ecosystem in Southwest China, yet studies that integrate temperature and precipitation changes are inadequate for quantitatively assessing the impacts of extreme events on ecosystems. In this study, the return period of concurrent climate extremes characterized by precipitation deficit and extreme temperature and the spatial and temporal dynamic patterns of their impacts on ecosystems were assessed by using high-precision temperature and precipitation data, as well as NDVI and NPP data collected for the 1985–2015 period. The results show that the 2009 concurrent event had a return period of about 200 years. The return periods of individual climate factors are significantly overestimated or underestimated. Concurrent events significantly reduced the spring and annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and net primary productivity (NPP) in Southwest China. The magnitude of the reduction in vegetation greenness and productivity increased with the intensity of concurrent events. Concurrent events beginning in autumn 2009 reduced spring NDVI and NPP by 8.8% and 23%, and annual NDVI and NPP by 2.23% and 7.22%, respectively. Under future climate scenarios, the return period of concurrent events could be significantly shortened, which would have a more severe impact on regional ecosystems.
... These hazards then further result in the degradation of ecosystem functions (ESF) and the loss of biodiversity and affect human health/well-being [1][2][3][4][5]. The experts anticipate that the climate change observed today and in the foreseeable future will be influenced by the variability of anthropogenic forcing [6]. If we cannot limit global climate change, there will be far-reaching repercussions on nature and society [7]. ...
Article
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Rising vulnerability of the urban green infrastructure (UGI) is grabbing global attention, for which inclusive urban landscape and greening policies (ULGP) and frameworks are crucial to support green growth. As such, this research intends to explore the local community’s perspective to assemble sustainable UGI indicators for vital taxonomy of the urban green space (UGS) elements, aiming to develop a multi-functional and sustainable UGI-indicator-based framework that is eco-friendly and supports green-resilient cities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, Pakistan. An in-depth household survey was executed in three KP districts: Charsadda, Peshawar, and Mardan, placing self-administered 192 questionnaires while covering themes around climate change adaptation, urban resilience, and UGI. Relative importance index (RII) and the interquartile range (IQR) methods were set up for data analysis that revealed excellent reliability (α > 0.88) and internal consistency. The results confirmed community-based UGI indicators with a focus on promoting green-energy-saving strategies as e-imp (level 9, RII = 0.915), while other (ten) UGI indicators as important (RII = 0.811–0.894) and (eleven) as moderately important (RII = 0.738–0.792). These UGI indicators were found to be enhanced by UGS elements (RII ≥ 0.70). These findings provide a foundation for urban policy change and the development of a sustainable UGI framework to build an eco-regional paradigm for greener growth.
... Environmental and socioeconomic processes propel nonclimatic drivers like changes in land use that in turn magnify the risk of zoonoses like SARS-CoV-2. Zoonosis transmission is impacted by factors that shape population and individual level vulnerability to infection like structural racism, and access to healthcare, quality food, housing, and sanitation [12,28,29] (Triad adapted from Collins et al. [30]. Image created using Canva.com.). ...
Article
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Land development, pollution, and waste have affected natural environments, contributing to hurricanes, wildfires, and pandemic infectious diseases like COVID-19. Globalized corporate food systems that produce ultra-refined foods with low nutritional value contribute to both environmental conditions and health conditions like obesity and undernutrition. This has the greatest impact on communities already suffering from elevated health risks driven by economic inequities rooted in racism. These interacting environmental, health, and social conditions represent a syndemic. We outline practical suggestions to address this syndemic of environmental degradation, pandemic infectious disease, chronic disease, undernutrition, and inequity through research and practice at many levels, including individual behavior, local communities, and regional, national and global policy. Collaboration with communities is central to simultaneously tackling interconnected human and environmental health threats. For example, community-led groups have increased access to healthy food in response to pandemic conditions. Building on behavioral medicine’s rich foundation of ecological models, communities have partnered with local researchers to address the needs of equitable public transport and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through multilevel research and practice. Policymakers, researchers, practitioners, and community members should collaborate with each other and across disciplines to find lasting, multiduty solutions to improve physical, psychosocial, and planetary health.
... The first rule of thumb in dealing with disasters is to avoid harm, and the perception of risk is a prerequisite. However, disaster risk has not been significantly reduced as a result of socioeconomic development (IPCC, 2012). Without a proper risk perception assessment, individuals may not understand the importance of mitigating these risks (Bier, 2001). ...
Article
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Few studies have examined people’s subjective perceptions of risk after secondary disasters. This study selected 12 towns in the areas where secondary geological hazards (SGH) occurred after the Wenchuan earthquake as the survey research areas and obtained a total of 957 valid samples to assess the risk perceptions of residents and the factors influencing them 10 years after the disaster. Using four indicators (possibility, awareness, apprehension, and impact) to construct the Resident Risk Perception Index (RRPI), the results show that residents in the affected areas have high, moderate, and low-risk perceptions of SGH at 27.59, 48.38, and 24.03% respectively. The study found that people who suffered in the past from geological disasters had a higher risk perception. Perceptions of secondary geological hazard risk varied significantly with age, education, marital status, and experience. It was also found that residents in the 30–40 age group have the highest risk perception, young people in the 20–30 age group have the highest risk awareness, and older people over 60 are more fearful of SGH. The study recommends awareness campaigns and adequate disaster preparedness exercises to improve the risk perception of local people, especially to foster ownership of learning about disasters among residents.
... Il se traduit par une augmentation des températures annuelles moyennes, une réduction et une augmentation de la variabilité des précipitations [1]. Ce qui entraîne une modification de la fréquence, de l'intensité, de l'étendue spatiale, de la durée et du moment des événements météorologiques et climatiques et produit des phénomènes climatiques inattendus [2]. L'augmentation des précipitations extrêmes en terme de fréquence et d'intensité induit des risques et des catastrophes naturelles, qui causent d'énormes dommages sur les écosystèmes naturels et le développement socio-économique [3]. ...
Article
Les évènements climatiques extrêmes affectent de manière significative l'environnement, la société humaine et les moyens de subsistance. L'objectif de cette étude est d'analyser l'évolution passée et future des intensités et fréquences de pluies dans le bassin versant de la Lobo. L'approche méthodologique s'est basée sur le calcul des indices d'intensités et de fréquences de pluies à partir des données CHIRPS (1990 à 2019) et les données issues de 4 MCG (2021 à 2050). Le test de Mann Kendall a été utilisé pour évaluer les tendances et la méthode d'interpolation IDW pour analyser la répartition spatiale de ces indices. Les résultats montrent une augmentation des indices d'intensité (PRCPTOT, Rx1day, Rx3day et Rx5day) et de fréquence de pluies (R95ptot et R99ptot) pour la période de 1990 à 2019. La moyenne des 4 MGC indique que ces tendances augmenteront également avec le scénario RCP 4.5 de 2021 à 2050 à l'exception de Rx1day qui connaitra une tendance à la baisse dans la moitié nord du bassin. Les plus importantes intensités de pluies se localiseront à l'ouest et au sud tandis que les fréquences de pluies intenses et extrêmes augmenteront du sud-est au nord-ouest du bassin. Cette étude peut aider les décideurs politiques à prendre des décisions relatives à la planification et stratégie pour lutter contre les risques d'inondation dans l'avenir. Mots-clés : évolution, extrêmes pluviométriques, RCP4.5, bassin de la Lobo, Côte d'Ivoire. Abstract Past and future evolution of extreme precipitation in central-western of Côte d'Ivoire : case of the lobo river watershed Extreme weather events significantly affect the environment, human society and livelihoods. The objective of this study is to analyze the past and future evolution of rainfall intensity and frequency in the Lobo watershed. The methodological approach was based on the calculation of rainfall intensity and frequency indices from CHIRPS data (1990 to 2019) and data from 4 GCMs (2021 to 2050). The Mann Kendall test was used to assess 94 Afrique SCIENCE 20(1) (2021) 93-111 Fabrice Blanchard ALLECHY et al. trends and the IDW interpolation method to analyze the spatial distribution of these indices. The results show an increase in the intensity (PRCPTOT, Rx1day, Rx3day and Rx5day) and rainfall frequency (R95ptot and R99ptot) indices for the period 1990 to 2019. The average of the 4 CGMs indicates that these trends will also increase with the RCP 4.5 scenario from 2021 to 2050 with the exception of Rx1day which will show a decreasing trend in the northern half of the watershed. The highest rainfall intensities will be located in the west and south while the frequency of intense and extreme rainfall will increase from the southeast to the northwest of the watershed. This study can help policymakers to make decisions on planning and strategy to combat flood risk in the future.
... Overall environmental attitudes seem to be strongly affected by perception of environmental issues, extreme events, and media discourse about them (see e.g., the environmental agency's environmental awareness study [103] which evidences the correlation between environmental attitude and environmental disasters). Given that extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change [104,105], it can be expected that awareness of environmental issues and climate change will further increase. That raises the likelihood of a value shift towards sustainability making sustainable materialism the dominant value orientation in German society (cf. ...
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Active participation of citizens in the sustainable energy transition—particularly in energy communities—is explicitly desired by the European Union and considered vital for a successful transformation of Europe’s energy system. Currently, energy communities, i.e., citizen-led groups generating energy from renewable sources can be found across Europe, though current numbers are small. However, it is expected that the majority of EU households will be active in some form in the generation of energy by 2050. In order to understand how such a development could come about, and if desired, how it could be ensured, we developed and applied a quasi-dynamic model using the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) approach and with it analyzed and assessed such a transition in detail. Data for the CIB model was derived from case studies, interviews, three surveys including two discrete choice experiments, expert workshops, and complementary secondary data. A central consideration of the model is a differentiated representation of the heterogeneity of actors in society and their interactions. Main results obtained from the application of the model are possible transformation pathways of citizen participation in the energy transition of Germany. A key finding was that if current trends continue, a citizen-driven energy transition based on energy communities will unlikely be successful. We conclude that several framework conditions must change simultaneously from the status quo so that different social groups in society can be active in the generation of energy. These include changes such as the abolition of hindering regulations and the expansion of financial support schemes with a focus on lower socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, only in a combination of conducive social factors such as neighborhood cohesion and conducive social influence, as well as favorable economic conditions, can energy communities become an important player in Germany’s future energy system.
... As one of the countries most vulnerable to extreme weather events, Bangladesh is a case of particular interest to the study of disaster governance [9,20,21]. To address the country's vulnerability to natural hazards, the Government of Bangladesh has attempted to decentralize its post-disaster management strategy, delegating greater responsibility and autonomy to local-level institutions [21,22]. ...
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Citation: Barua P, Mitra A and Eslamian S. Disaster management strategies and relation of good gov-ernance for the coastal Bangladesh. Resour Environ Econ, 2021, 3(2): 269-279. Abstract: Although Bangladesh's immense steps in preparing the disaster management policies following the values of good governance issue, the quantity to which these policies have productively been executing at the local level remnants mostly unknown. The objectives of this study was dual: firstly, to inspect the roles and efficiency of the local-level governance and disaster management organization, and lastly, to recognize the obstacles to the execution of national the policies and Disaster-Risk-Reduction guidelines at the local community level. The authors applied qualitative research and case Study approach, using techniques from the Participatory Rural Appraisal toolbox to collect data from local community members as well as government and NGO officials. From the finding of the study, it was revealed that interactive disaster governance, decentralization of disaster management, and compliance by local-level institutions with good governance principles and national policy guidelines can be extremely effective in reducing disaster-loss and damages. This study contributes to these research gaps, with identification of further research agenda in these areas. Thus, it contributes to numerous policy and practice areas relating to good disaster governance. The study identified the specific manifestations of these failures in coastal communities in Bangladesh. These results underscore the vital need to address the wide gap between national DRR goals and the on-the-ground realities of policy implementation to successfully enhance the country's resilience to climate change-induced disasters.
... Anthropogenic emissions have resulted in global climate change, which is linked to global and regional changes in precipitation and temperature patterns (Khan et al., 2020). Changes in precipitation and temperature due to global warming are closely linked to extreme events that threaten the environment and community (IPCC, 2012). More importantly, precipitation has significant effects on the water supply, which is essential for human life (Zhang et al., 2020a;2020b). ...
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This study examines the potential implications of 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 C global warming levels (GWLs) on the austral summer (November-March) extreme precipitation indices over the Zambezi River basin (ZRB) relative to the control period (1971-2000). We computed extreme precipitation based on daily data from observations and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) multi-model ensemble mean (ENSMean). First, we evaluated the performance of the CORDEX-CORE ENSMean in simulating extreme precipitation based on six indices; the number of rainy days (RR1), simple daily intensity index (SDII), maximum consecutive wet days (CWD), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), heavy precipitation days (R10), and very heavy precipitation days (R20). The results indicate that the CORDEX-CORE ENSMean can simulate the spatial distributions of extreme precipitation over the ZRB. However, CORDEX-CORE largely overestimates the magnitudes of RR1 and CWD. The projected changes show a decrease in RR1, CWD, and R10 under all GWLs, with a robust and pronounced decrease under 3.0 C GWL. In contrast, CDD and SDII are projected to increase under all GWLs, with a robust and pronounced increase in CDD under 3.0 C GWL. The regionally averaged changes show that the median values of CWD, RR1, and R10 (SDII and CDD) are projected to decrease (increase) under all GWLs over the ZRB and sub-basins. The probability density function (PDF) shows negative (positive) shifts in the mean of CWD, RR1, and R10 (SDII and CDD) over the ZRB and sub-basins under all GWLs. In contrast, R20 is projected to increase (decrease) over most of the western (eastern) ZRB under all GWLs. Assessing the implications of an additional 0.5 and 1.5 C (1.0 C) warming to 1.5 C (2.0 C) GWL shows that limiting GWL to 1.5 C would restrict the future exposure of the ZRB to extreme precipitation.
... Among the several consequences of climate change, one that has been identified is the increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events and natural disasters (IPCC, 2007). The IPCC (2012) defines natural disasters as "severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery (IPCC, 2012, p.31); such events include, but are not limited to, natural disasters such as droughts, heavy precipitation and heat waves. ...
... Anthropogenic emissions have resulted in global climate change, which is linked to global and regional changes in precipitation and temperature patterns (Khan et al., 2020). Changes in precipitation and temperature due to global warming are closely linked to extreme events that threaten the environment and community (IPCC, 2012). More importantly, precipitation has significant effects on the water supply, which is essential for human life (Zhang et al., 2020a;2020b). ...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines the potential implications of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C global warming levels (GWLs) on the austral summer (November–March) extreme precipitation indices over the Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) relative to the control period (1971–2000). We computed extreme precipitation based on daily data from observations and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)‐Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) multi‐model ensemble mean (ENSMean). First, we evaluated the performance of the CORDEX‐CORE ENSMean in simulating extreme precipitation based on six indices; the number of rainy days (RR1), simple daily intensity index (SDII), maximum consecutive wet days (CWD), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), heavy precipitation days (R10) and very heavy precipitation days (R20). The results indicate that the CORDEX‐CORE ENSMean can simulate the spatial distributions of extreme precipitation over the ZRB. However, CORDEX‐CORE largely overestimates the magnitudes of RR1 and CWD. The projected changes show a decrease in RR1, CWD, and R10 under all GWLs, with a robust and pronounced decrease under 3.0°C GWL. In contrast, CDD and SDII are projected to increase under all GWLs, with a robust and pronounced increase in CDD under 3.0°C GWL. The regionally averaged changes show that the median values of CWD, RR1, and R10 (SDII and CDD) are projected to decrease (increase) under all GWLs over the ZRB and sub‐basins. The probability density function (PDF) shows negative (positive) shifts in the mean of CWD, RR1, and R10 (SDII and CDD) over the ZRB and sub‐basins under all GWLs. In contrast, R20 is projected to increase (decrease) over most of the western (eastern) ZRB under all GWLs. Assessing the implications of an additional 0.5°C and 1.5°C (1.0°C) warming to 1.5°C (2.0°C) GWL shows that limiting GWL to 1.5°C would restrict the future exposure of the ZRB to extreme precipitation.
... Generally, according to Varnes (1984), the risk is defined as functionally related to two independent variables: (i) the vulnerability V of the natural system, that is, the degree of the intrinsic weakness of the considered system, and (ii) the hazard H associated with a specific (natural or human) event (Barca and Passarella 2008), that is, the possibility that a potentially detrimental event of given characteristics occurs in a given area, for a given time period (IPCC 2012). When assessing the hazard associated with an event, it is necessary to evaluate the temporal trend, frequency, and spatial extent of the past events and determine the severity of the effects produced by them (deterministic approach). ...
Chapter
In environmental sciences, the risk assessment methods focus on the most reliable techniques to quantify vulnerability and hazard, being the former defined as functionally related to the latter independent variables. With regard to groundwater systems, this chapter explores the possibility of assessing directly the environmental risk as a probability, avoiding to evaluate each of its components. Environmental risk is intended here as the probability of groundwater (i.e., the vulnerable natural system) quality degradation due to the uncontrolled spreading of nutrients on soils in agriculture (i.e., the hazardous event). Risk is formally defined as the probability of exceeding given thresholds of nitrate concentration, conditioned by values sampled within the considered groundwater system. Then, a probabilistic methodology is proposed, based on geostatistical, non-parametric, stochastic simulation, to estimate and spatialize such a risk. Finally, the methodology has been applied to the shallow aquifer of the “Tavoliere di Puglia” plain, located in Apulia, Southern Italy, and characterized by intense agricultural activities and civil facilities.
... The civil societies, NGOs, academics, activists, communities, industries, and individuals do engage with planning and execution of short term and long term, but planned adaptation strategies become quite common in climate change scenarios. The role of these non-state actors who largely contribute to planning and implementing adaptation strategies are widely recommended in the IPCC assessment reports, 35 and the Paris Agreement has emphasized the same. The third category is that the people and communities who suffer the challenges of climate change may themselves tend to cope and adapt to the situation in more spontaneous ways, which is collectively termed as 'autonomous adaptation'. ...
Research
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This note intends to pave a conceptual and methodological frame for an inaugural multidisciplinary scholarship on the inequality and autonomous adaptation to climate change in the Indian scenario. It begins with providing a brief background on climate change responses and uncovers the disconnect in the existing climate change knowledge in social sciences. It argues that the knowledge on climate change in social sciencesespecially on inequality, vulnerability, and adaptation, lacks the discourses from the ground. This disconnect perhaps take a toll on the existing adaptation policies. Therefore, it argues that the intuitive and spontaneous responses of people and communities towards coping and adapting to climate change known as autonomous adaptation has potential scope for improving the adequate and equitable resilience policies and 'governances of adaptation' in the regime of climate change. It also raises the need for shifting our attention and scholarly engagements towards investigating autonomous adaptation to climate change as potential scope for bridging the existing disconnect in climate change knowledge. It further presents the geographical locations in India which are more exposed towards the effects of climate change as an appropriate site for ethnographic inquiry on the process and other dynamics of autonomous adaptation. Besides, it draws the theoretical and methodological approaches emerging in different disciplines in social sciences such as economics, political science and anthropology to move forward to study both inequality and autonomous adaptation to climate change.
... removal) of the vegetation at the colony is required, as well as readiness and resources to restore the gravel bank ( Figure 3) should another storm, such as the one in 2007, occur. As the incidence and magnitude of extreme weather events are predicted to increase as a consequence of climate change (Wires & Cuthbert 2000, IPCC 2012, IPCC 2021, it becomes increasingly important to restore historical nesting islands nearby in order to prevent reproductive failure should Stenarna be rendered unsuitable. Candidate islands for restoration in the area are Klubbarna and Västerskian (Staav 2007). ...
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We present conservation actions during 2007–2020 as part of the national Caspian Tern Hydroprogne caspia species action plan at Stenarna in the Björn archipelago, Uppland, the largest colony in Sweden. We applied a combination of monitoring, research, and management measures conducted within an adaptive approach framework, using both established and novel techniques. The implementation of conservation measures led to increased breeding success, from 0 fledglings per pair in 2007 to 1.3 in 2020. A surveillance video camera installed in 2009 aided in monitoring efforts and also revealed predation by Herring Gull Larus argentatus and White-tailed Eagle Haliaeetus albicilla, leading to species-specific control strategies. Management of the island and surrounding archipelago, including hunting of invasive American mink Mustela vison, vegetation removal, and habitat restoration after a severe storm, have also been instrumental to the success of the project. Implementation of projects such as this have the potential to improve conditions for continued viability of endangered species in a changing world and are likely to be useful to other conservation practitioners.
... In addition to the impacts of anthropogenic global warming, hydrological processes, fluvial dynamics, and future weather patterns will also be influenced by natural climate variability. With the observed increase in the number and intensity of extreme precipitation events over the Indian region (Goswami et al., 2006;Joshi and Rajeevan, 2006;Khaladkar et al., 2009) and the increase in developmental activities in hazard-prone areas, the exposure and vulnerability to flood disasters are anticipated to increase in the future (IPCC, 2012). A study in the Bangladesh delta region predicted alterations in the hydrological cycles and the flow regime of Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins due to changes in global climate (Islam et al., 2018) leading to more serious floods in Bangladesh. ...
Article
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Intensification of the water cycle mediated by global warming increases the risk of hydrological disasters by modifying precipitation patterns across the globe which leads to adverse socio-economic impacts, especially in developing countries. Socio-hydrological spaces in the vicinity of major river systems are prone to the devastating effects of hydrological disasters yet attract human settlements due to the availability of fertile lands that support agriculture. The Brahmaputra floodplain (BFP) of Assam in Northeast India (NEI) is one such region that supports a high population in spite of being ravaged by annual floods and occasional droughts. The current study attempts to critically review the climate change impacts on socio-hydrological spaces of the BFP exploring climate change-hazard-lives and livelihood linkages of floodplain dwellers. This work utilizes peer reviewed articles along with reports of government and international/national organizations to critically appraise the following-(i) existing climate and fluvial hazard scenario in the BFP, (ii) impacts of climate change on the fluvial hazard and agriculture in the BFP, and (iii) the adaptation and mitigation measures that exist in the BFP. Shifts in the long-term trends of temperature and rainfall have occurred over this region leading to speculations on future scenarios of hydrological hazards and their impacts. Studies project an alteration in the hydrology and flow regime of the Brahmaputra River under climate warming scenarios which will influence the hazard characteristics with implications for agriculture and food security. Integrating disaster risk reduction with agricultural management can provide better climate resilience to the farming communities in the BFP.
... In micro-installations, the amount of electricity introduced to the electricity distribution network for the first half of 2020 was 539,787.858 kWh [21]. The planned installations can produce 4 billion m 3 of biomethane annually within 10 years, which would constitute 20% of the domestic demand. ...
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The article addresses the progressive changes in the climate caused by increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In light of the applicable regulations, Poland should reduce the emissions with significant potential of creating the greenhouse effect. One way to achieve this is to increase the use of renewable energy sources, where biogas energy production is one of the most effective methods. Using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method, the greenhouse gas emissions, expressed as CO2 equivalent generated during the entire logistic process of its production, were calculated.
... The IPCC further state that temperatures have increased by 0.6 • C since the onset of the industrial revolution, which began in the 19th century. It is expected that temperatures will continue to rise through the 21st century given the reluctance of humans to adopt changes in energy use and deforestation practices (IPCC, 2012;IPCC, 2021;Malakar and Mishra, 2016;World Meteorological Organization -WMO, 2020). ...
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The nature of various ecologies partly determines how vulnerable regions and localities are to climate change. In developing countries, the low level of technological innovations required to adapt effectively and high reliance on nature for livelihood make certain areas more vulnerable than others. The study investigates the vulnerabilities of the three major ecological zones (Lowland rainforest, Freshwater Swamp, and Mangrove Swamp) in Delta State of the Niger Delta Region to climate change. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to analyze exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators. Temperature and rainfall data used as the indicators for exposure were downloaded from NASA’s website and UCI CHRS’s data portal respectively and spanned from the year 1981 to 2019 for temperature and 2000 to 2019 for rainfall. PCA for sensitivity and adaptive capacity was carried out using thirty (30) sensitivity indicators and thirteen (13) adaptive capacity indicators, which were derived from the administration of 4,000 copies of questionnaire to rural residents of 10 selected Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Delta State. These were used to generate vulnerability scores (Z-scores), which served as measures of vulnerability, for the components – exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results showed that Warri North Local Government Area and Warri Southwest Local Government Area (both located in the Mangrove Swamp ecology) were the most vulnerable in terms of temperature, with Z-Scores of 3.096 and 2.681 respectively. In terms of rainfall, the results indicated that most LGAs located in the Freshwater Swamp were the most exposed to increased rainfall. In terms of sensitivity, Burutu and Patani LGAs located in the Mangrove Swamp and Ndokwa East LGA located in the Freshwater Swamp were the most sensitive to climate change. Burutu and Patani LGAs (which are both in the Mangrove Swamp) had the highest vulnerability based on low adaptive capacity. Overall, Patani and Burutu LGAs (both in the Mangrove Swamp ecological zone) were the most vulnerable to climate change. The study recommends that climate change interventions be delivered across communities in the Niger-Delta Region based on variations of the indicators of vulnerability.
... Nitrogen deposition and fertilization are important sources of N that alleviate N limitations in terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale (Elrys, Ali, et al., 2021;Elrys et al., 2022;Yu et al., 2019). The rate of atmospheric N deposition has been predicted to increase by 2.5 times worldwide in the next century (IPCC, 2014). Increased N deposition and N fertilization increase N losses to the environment. ...
Article
Soil microbes make up a significant portion of the genetic diversity and play a critical role in belowground carbon (C) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Soil microbial diversity and organic C are often tightly coupled in C cycling processes; however, this coupling can be weakened or broken by rapid global change. A global meta‐analysis was performed with 1148 paired comparisons extracted from 229 articles published between January 1998 and December 2021 to determine how nitrogen (N) fertilization affects the relationship between soil C content and microbial diversity in terrestrial ecosystems. We found that N fertilization decreased soil bacterial (–11%) and fungal diversity (–17%), but increased soil organic C (SOC) (+19%), microbial biomass C (MBC) (+17%), and dissolved organic C (DOC) (+25%) across different ecosystems. Organic N (urea) fertilization had a greater effect on SOC, MBC, DOC, and bacterial and fungal diversity than inorganic N fertilization. Most importantly, soil microbial diversity decreased with increasing SOC, MBC and DOC, and the absolute values of the correlation coefficients decreased with increasing N fertilization rate and duration, suggesting that N fertilization weakened the linkage between soil C and microbial diversity. The weakened linkage might negatively impact essential ecosystem services under high rates of N fertilization; this understanding is important for mitigating the negative impact of global N enrichment on soil C cycling.
... Sustained urbanization remains necessary for sustainable development, wherein green urban planning is perceived as an effective strategy against anticipated climate change/environmental challenges [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Experts anticipate that the variability of anthropogenic forces will further influence climate change [7,8], as they have already transformed the urban outlook by greying the natural landscape. Accordingly, the pressure on green spaces is increasing due to unprecedented urban growth. ...
Article
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Climate-induced pressures spur on the need for urban green infrastructure (UGI) planning. This approach offers a possible way to improve ecosystem functionality and human well-being in adversely affected urban regions, wherein UGI is perceived as a green and nature-based climate change mitigation/adaptation strategy. In Pakistan, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province lacks such urban landscape and greening policies (ULGP) or legislative frameworks for transitioning to green action plans (GAP), to alleviate the risk of multi-climatic hazards. Thus, this study aims to investigate a sustainable UGI-indicator-based framework model, based on the due inclusion of the concerned stakeholders. The relative importance index (RII) and inter-quartile range (IQR) techniques are employed for field data analysis. The findings proclaim excellent reliability (α > 0.7) and internal consistency, wherein sustainable UGI indicators are grouped based on their importance. The results portray the ecological and economic sustainability dimensions as being important (RII = 0.835 and RII = 0.807, respectively), socio-cultural dimensions as being moderately important (RII = 0.795), and a set of UGS elements (RII ≥ 0.77) as vital for bolstering individual UGI indicators. The main UGS elements emerging in each category can be grouped as follows: ecological category—“reducing rainwater runoff” (RII = 0.94); socio-cultural category—“enhancement of mental and physical health” (RII = 0.90); and eco category—“minimizing the risk of flood disasters” (RII = 0.96). The simulation results demonstrate the need for an inclusive perspective when building the urban green space (UGS) infrastructure (and standards) that will be most suitable for ensuring climate-resilient urban regions. This study contributes to putting the scientific research knowledge of the natural green-landscape-based (NBLB) approach into practice. The study calls for the establishment of an effective, pragmatic relationship between the urban landscape and greening policies, alongside a constructive relationship with the native inhabitants to ensure eco-friendly and resilient settlements.
... Climate change is defined by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change as a long-term change in climate that may be recognized by changes in the mean and/or variability of its features [7]. The proportion of land under cultivation of different crops at different times is referred to as the cropping pattern. ...
... RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), which can be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies [43], and which have been incorporated into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5-CMIP5) [44]. By the end of the century, the four RCPs represent radiative forcing levels of 8.5, 6, 4.5, and 2.6 W/m 2 , respectively [44,45]. RCPs provide a unique set of data for extensive climate modeling, global and regional analysis, and impact assessment due to their comprehensiveness in terms of sources addressed as well as geographic scale features [46]. ...
Article
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Terrestrial ecosystems in China are threatened by land use and future climate change. Understanding the effects of these changes on vegetation and the climate-vegetation interactions is critical for vegetation preservation and mitigation. However, land-use impacts on vegetation are neglected in terrestrial ecosystems exploration, and a deep understanding of land-use impacts on vegetation dynamics is lacking. Additionally, few studies have examined the contribution of vegetation succession to changes in vegetation dynamics. To fill the above gaps in the field, the spatiotemporal distribution of terrestrial ecosystems under the current land use and climate baseline (1970–2000) was examined in this study using the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System (CSCS) model. Moreover, the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystems and their succession under future climate scenarios (the 2030s–2080s) were quantitatively projected and compared. The results demonstrated that under the current situation, vegetation without human disturbance was mainly distributed in high elevation regions and less than 10% of the national area. For future vegetation dynamics, more than 58% of tundra and alpine steppe would shrink. Semidesert would respond to climate change with an expansion of 39.49 × 104 km2, including the succession of the steppe to semidesert. Although some advancement of the temperate forest at the expense of substantial dieback of tundra and alpine steppe is expected to occur, this century would witness a considerable shrinkage of them, especially in RCP8.5, at approximately 55.06 × 104 km2. Overall, a warmer and wetter climate would be conducive to the occurrence and development of the CSCS ecosystems. These results offer new insights on the potential ecosystem response to land use and climate change over the Chinese domain, and on creating targeted policies for effective adaptation to these changes and implementation of ecosystem protection measures.
... Dam risk management strategies have traditionally assumed the stationarity of climatic conditions, including the persistence of historical patterns of natural variability and the likelihood of extreme events [2][3][4]. However, evidence shows that climate change is likely to modify dam risks in the mid and long term. ...
Conference Paper
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Climate change is likely to transform dam risks in the mid and long term. Management strategies must be adapted to new climate scenarios in order to define the most efficient implementation sequence of risk reduction measures. A comprehensive process based on the risk analysis framework has been proposed by the authors that encompasses all the phases, from the calculation of the risk up to the definition and prioritization of measures. The global effect of climate change on dam risks must be assessed through the integration of the various projected effects acting on each dam safety aspect. For this, the use of risk models has proved useful to structure and incorporate the impacts on the different dam safety components. The approach proposed has been applied to a study case of the Santa Teresa dam. This is the first documented application of a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on dam risk under a hydrological scenario. It has provided valuable new information with respect to previous dam risk studies. The situation in the current state does not present an urgent need for adaptation measures. However, in general, risks are expected to increase with time and new adaptation measures that were not justifiable for the present situation have been recommended. The study case has highlighted the need of incorporating non-stationarity climate change impacts on dam safety for optimally reducing dam risks throughout a predefined period. Indeed, not considering the risk evolution can lead us to adopt inefficient strategies for risk reduction in the long term.
... When a heatwave event straddles two calendar years, it is counted in the year in which the heatwave began. Expressing "risk" as the product of hazard intensity and hazard exposure [68] population exposure (E) is defined as the product of HD and the total population (Pop) [69] at the grid point, and the unit is person-days, shown as ...
Article
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Extreme heatwaves are among the most important climate-related disasters affecting public health. Assessing heatwave-related population exposures under different warming scenarios is critical for climate change adaptation. Here, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble output results are applied over several warming periods in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report, to estimate China’s future heatwave population exposure under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Our results show a significant increase in projected future annual heatwave days (HD) under both scenarios. With an additional temperature increase of 0.5 °C to 2.0 °C of warming, by mid-century an additional 20.15 percent increase in annual HD would occur, over 1.5 °C warming. If the climate warmed from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C by mid-century, population exposure would increase by an additional 40.6 percent. Among the three influencing elements that cause the changes in population exposure related to heatwaves in China–climate, population, and interaction (e.g., as urbanization affects population redistribution)–climate plays the dominant role in different warming scenarios (relative contribution exceeds 70 percent). Therefore, considering the future heat risks, humanity benefits from a 0.5 °C reduction in warming, particularly in eastern China. This conclusion may provide helpful insights for developing mitigation strategies for climate change.
... In this study, a riverbank erosion hotspot is defined as an area subject to substantial and frequent erosion, with a high exposure level. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [73], the term "exposure" refers to "the presence of people, livelihoods, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected". Despite the high severity of a hazard, it is not considered a hotspot if it does not affect humans or human infrastructure. ...
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[-] La presente tesis doctoral explora las imágenes y la imaginación utópicas y distópicas. Nuestro objetivo principal es acercarnos a nuestro presente a través del análisis de los miedos sobre nuestro porvenir. Así, nuestra investigación se dedicará a explorar las posibles conexiones entre las imágenes, la imaginación y los imaginarios sobre el futuro en el mundo occidental. Para ello, el grueso de nuestro análisis estará centrado en las representaciones distópicas de Hollywood correspondientes a los últimos veinte años (2001-2020). Consideramos que las narrativas distópicas son una herramienta valiosa para analizar los imaginarios hegemónicos en el mundo occidental actual. Esta será nuestra principal hipótesis. Además, pensamos que estos textos sirven también para determinar cómo imaginamos posibles soluciones a las diferentes crisis que nos afectan socialmente y como sujetos. Desde nuestro punto de vista, dichas crisis nos mantienen inmersos en un estado de desorientación, confusión y "parálisis" que hace difícil imaginar un futuro alternativo o potencialmente utópico. Creemos que ese estado de ánimo está vinculado al "triunfo" de las narrativas neoliberales que -especialmente desde los años 80- han dejado claro que "no hay alternativa", como diría la ex primera ministra británica Margaret Thatcher. En este sentido, entendemos que no sólo nos encontramos ante una "parálisis de la imaginación" (Martorell, 2019: 12), sino también ante una especie de "secuestro" de la misma que apunta a la apropiación capitalista de nuestra subjetividad. Comprender las implicaciones de lo anterior requiere abordar la imaginación desde una perspectiva que trascienda cualquier análisis puramente estructural para centrarse en la esfera cultural y, particularmente, en la de la propia subjetividad. De las hipótesis anteriores se derivan algunos de nuestros objetivos generales. En primer lugar, para comprender y aclarar el papel de la distopía en la actualidad, creemos necesario considerar tanto sus características como el papel que esta ha desempeñado históricamente. Por lo tanto, la tradición (e)utópica será considerada como una fuente primaria de este tipo de narrativas. Esto implica una primera consecuencia para nuestra discusión: tanto el análisis de la utopía como el de la distopía deben centrarse en cómo estos textos representan una realidad particular, revelando sus posibles tensiones y contradicciones. En última instancia, esto supone analizar estos textos en términos de hegemonía. Por otra parte, esto plantea también abordar la(s) posible(s) función(es) de la distopía en el actual contexto de crisis. En tal línea, nos proponemos problematizar el potencial de las narrativas distópicas como "promotoras" del análisis crítico de la realidad.
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Coastal rural communities, being intricately associated with their ecological settings, are often highly vulnerable to climate change. Amongst the many approaches of reducing the coastal vulnerabilities and achieving climate change adaptation, a potential solution is to improve risk governance through integrated coastal zone management. The coastal risk governance signifies not only the actions of the state but also of other stakeholders, especially the local communities. Community-based approaches have also for long been advocated for effective adaptation and mitigation against climate adversities. While human-nature interactions can significantly influence disaster risks, this research makes an attempt to understand various decisions and choices that a coastal rural community makes based on such interactions to mitigate and manage the climate-induced adversities. Through structured interviews, this research first identifies the significant domains that reflect on the prevailing human-nature interactions, after which the choice modelling technique is utilized to comprehend the community priorities for better climate risk governance, with a specific focus on coastal rural settlements of Katrenikona (Andhra Pradesh, India). The application of this methodology resulted in the formulation of a baseline for local coastal governance, which can be useful for informing various levels within local governments. The baseline consists of an assessment of the different community resilience domains derived based on the prevailing interactions of local communities with their surrounding ecological elements and measured by indicators of local coastal governance. The concept and method for measuring coastal risk governance based on community preferences are potentially replicable, and it can help to track the progress towards longer-term coastal management and local climate adaptation goals. At the same time, it can be turned into a self-evaluation tool to assist the local governments in reflecting on pertinent pathways involving community actions for effectively managing various climate risks and ecological impacts.
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Global surface temperature is rising at an alarming rate. The combined forces of global warming and drought are threatening ecosystems around the world. In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere has been hit by a combination of drought and heatwave - with devastating environmental and economic consequences. These disasters, which were once considered purely rare events, have increased significantly in frequency, intensity, and duration in recent years. Forests are of great ecological and economic importance for the proper functioning of natural and human systems. Hence, forest observed susceptibility to increasing warming and droughts is of great concern. Given that the future of forests is uncertain, there is an urgent need to assess forest response to these pressing climate change issues. This dissertation aims to expand current understanding and knowledge of forest response to climate warming and drought. To achieve this aim, this dissertation focuses on two major objectives (1) to investigate species dynamics under climate change and (2) to assess the impacts of drought on saplings and mature tree species in Europe. Through empirical research and the application of various methodological approaches, I seek to provide international leaders, forest managers, and practitioners with practical information to support their decision-making, policies, and actions. High temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to lead to shifts in climate zones and thus large-scale shifts in vegetation. As a result, species ranges are expected to shift to higher elevations or higher latitudes as their climatic optimum shifts. Yet trees that cannot cope with these changes risk being affected by climate change-induced stress. Despite extensive research, it is still unclear whether tree species can cope with global warming. An ideal model system to answer these questions is represented by mountain treelines. Mountain treelines are considered sensors of climate change, meaning that they are expected to respond quickly to climatic warming. Therefore, in Manuscripts 1 and 2, I contribute to the current understanding of how tree species cope with climate warming by researching tree populations from remote mountain regions. In Manuscript 1, I investigated treeline dynamics based on in-situ measurements of Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) trees from two different protected areas in the Carpathian Mountains. Using spatial statistics, similarities and differences in the spatial structure were identified between the two Pinus cembra populations. In Manuscript 2, I assessed treeline dynamics in the Samaria National Park, on the semi-arid Mediterranean island of Crete. Using historical and recent high-resolution aerial imagery, I assessed the spatio-temporal tree dynamics over the past 70 years. In contrast to the Carpathians, where results indicated a shift of trees to higher elevations in the area protected since 1935, no shift of trees was observed in the Crete Mountains. Accordingly, the absence of climate-driven migration should raise concerns about the threats associated with future warming, drought stress, and wildfire. Therefore, conservation managers should consider options and needs to support adaptive management. In addition to vegetation shifts, climate warming and drought periods are directly affecting the forest ecosystems of Europe. The current forests were established in the much colder climate of the 18th and 19th centuries, while the current seedlings and saplings are established in warmer conditions. Hence, germination and establishment took place under different climatic conditions. Evidence suggests that the increase in frequency and intensity of droughts will lead to abrupt changes in species composition and forest functioning. To assess species-specific responses to drought, European temperate forests are regarded as an optimal ecosystem due to their high susceptibility to drought compared to other temperate forest ecosystems. Thus, in Manuscripts 3 and 4, I presented a comprehensive quantification of the impact of the 2018 and 2019 summer drought on sapling species in temperate forests. The results suggested that drought damaged trees regardless of size, but saplings recovered faster than mature trees. Moreover, slow sapling recovery led to their mortality. Mortality increased from Quercus spp. to minor broadleaved species (e.g., pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) (0%), sessile oak (Quercus petraea) (4%), sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus) (5%), European beech (Fagus sylvatica) (6%), silver birch (Betula pendula) (6%), European hornbeam (Carpinus betulus) (8%), field maple (Acer campestre) (12%), ash (Fraxinus excelsior) (12%), elder (Sambucus nigra) (16%), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) (17%)). Species-specific responses to drought are key to understanding which species are more capable of coping with climate warming and anticipated drought events. These results are essential for developing and implementing adaptive forest management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This dissertation provides one of the first assessments of tree dynamics in the remote protected areas of the Carpathians and Crete Mountains, along with a comprehensive quantification of species-specific response to drought in Central Europe. Hence, these four studies provide conservationists, forest managers, stakeholders, and private property owners with practical information on tree dynamics and species-species response to climate warming and drought.
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There are thousands of communities and millions of homes in fire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) environments. Although future developments may be sited and designed to be more survivable and resistant to losses, an over-arching strategy is needed for those that are already at high risk. Traditionally, most plans for protecting WUI inhabitants focus on fuel reduction in strategic locations (e.g., defensible space around homes, fuel breaks around communities). While this approach can reduce fire hazard in specific locations and under certain weather conditions, there are a variety of vulnerabilities that are not directly addressed by fuel reduction. A more comprehensive approach is needed – one that facilitates climate change adaptation and future resilience – to mitigate multiple fire-related risks. A Regional Wildfire Mitigation Program (RWMP), expanding on traditional approaches to wildfire protection, is a key step in this direction. The goals of an RWMP include (1) retrofitting of the built environment (i.e., structural ignition vulnerabilities, water supply deficiencies, evacuation constraints); (2) buffering the landscape (i.e., a mosaic of less flammable land uses complementing traditional fuel breaks); and (3) training the community (i.e., education to become fire-adapted). We demonstrate here a consistent methodology for mapping hazards and vulnerabilities, assessing the risks of multiple negative impacts, prioritizing diverse mitigation activities, and implementing solutions that are effective and portable across many WUI environments.
Technical Report
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Informe técnico cuyo objetivo general es elaborar y validar, a nivel nacional, una propuesta técnica de criterios mínimos para la sustentabilidad de humedales urbanos, que permita orientar el diseño de un reglamento para la generación e implementación de ordenanzas municipales en este ámbito (humedales urbanos).
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