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R E S E A R C H Open Access
Livestock population dynamics and pastoral
communities?adaptation to rainfall variability in
communal lands of Kgalagadi South, Botswana
Olaotswe E Kgosikoma
1*
and Nnyaladzi Batisani
2
Abstract
Rainfall variability is a problem in arid environments, and in this study, drought severity, impact of rainfall variability on
livestock population and adaptation practices were investigated in Kgalagadi, Botswana. Data from the Department of
Meteorological Services, Central Statistics Office and a structured questionnaire were collected and analysed. Kgalagadi
district is highly vulnerable to recurring mild droughts. The livestock population, particularly the goat population, thus
tends to be positively associated with mean annual precipitation. Though cattle also responded positively to
mean annual rainfall, the relationship was not statistically significant and this could be due to the buffering
impact of management practices. Pastoral farmers?adaptation practices included destocking, supplementation
and mobility. The current grazing policy which promotes fencing could therefore increase the pastoral farmers?
vulnerability to droughts, as it limits mobility.
Keywords: Adaptation; Climate variability; Drylands; Pastoral ecosystems
Background
The ecosystems in semi-arid and arid environments are
characterized by high inter-annual rainfall variability and
reoccurring droughts (Ellis and Swift 1988; Mogotsi et al.
2012) which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change
(IPCC 2013). In Africa, the agro-pastoral production sys-
tems are mostly vulnerable to increased climate variability
(Stige et al. 2006; Sithole and Murewi 2009) as they are
principally dependant on natural resources (Stringer et al.
2009). The traditional beef sector in Botswana is highly
vulnerable to drought (Thomas et al. 2000) and climate
change (Masike and Urich 2008). Thus, increased climate
variability is likely to negatively impact the livelihoods of
pastoral communities in semi-arid and arid environments
(McCabe 1987), and there is an urgent need to develop
robust adaptation strategies in such regions (Sulieman
and Elagib 2012). But development of adaptation strat-
egies requires clear understanding of the impact of
rainfall variability on different ecosystems, particularly
those that support already vulnerable societies (Stige
et al. 2006).
In accordance with the non-equilibrium concept, rainfall
variability is considered a principal regulator of plant
productivity in semi-arid regions (Ellis and Swift 1988)
and subsequently has a strong influence on livestock
population dynamics (Begzsuren et al. 2004; Ogutu et al.
2007). The vegetation dynamics of some drylands are
under the control of climate rather than grazing pressure
and exhibit non-equilibrium dynamics (Westoby et al.
1989). Subsequently, the population of livestock such as
cattle are likely to be driven by climate shocks (e.g.
droughts) (Oba 2001) that lead to increased mortality.
Pastoralists and farmers in semi-arid environments have
therefore developed adaptation strategies to reduce the
impact of drought on their livestock. Traditionally, pasto-
ralists used mobility as an adaptive strategy to climatic
shocks such as droughts. But the combined effect of
increased climatic shocks, policies that limit mobility
(e.g. fencing of communal land) and a lack of alternative
viable livelihood options has made pastoral communities
much more vulnerable to poverty (e.g. Sulieman and
Elagib 2012), particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa
(Thornton et al. 2009).
The role of rainfall variability on dryland ecosystems is
still highly debated (Wehrden et al. 2012; Vetter 2005),
* Correspondence: mfana450@yahoo.com
1
Department of Agricultural Research, Private Bag 033, Gaborone, Botswana
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
? 2014 Kgosikoma and Batisani.; licensee springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.
Kgosikoma and Batisani Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice 2014, 4:19
http://www.pastoralismjournal.com/content/4/1/19
and there is still limited understanding of interactions
between livestock systems and climatic variability, espe-
cially how they may evolve in response to climatic
changes in the future (Thornton et al. 2009). Thus, it is
essential to understand how different livestock species
are able to cope with shifts in environmental conditions
(Best et al. 2007), especially extreme weather conditions.
The current study investigates the impact of rainfall vari-
ability on livestock population dynamics and communi-
ties?adaptation practices. Specifically, the objectives of
this study are to (i) characterize drought severity, (ii)
determine association between rainfall variability and
livestock population dynamics and (iii) determine drought
adaptation strategies in Kgalagadi South district, Botswana.
Improved understanding of traditional management sys-
tems to climate variability is a prerequisite to developing
adaptation strategies (McCabe 1987) to climate variability
and future climate change.
Study area
The study was conducted in Kgalagadi South district, spe-
cifically Bokspits, located in the south-west of Botswana
(Figure 1). The site was selected because it is one of the
most arid parts of Botswana, and therefore, pastoral
communities in this region are the most vulnerable to
climatic variability. Hence, their challenges and coping
strategies to rainfall variability could provide insights into
what to expect in response to climate change. Kgalagadi
district covers a total area of 105,200 km
2
and constitutes
a large part of the Kgalagadi (Kalahari) desert ecosystem.
The climatic condition at Bokspits is arid, characterized
by low rainfall of about 181.0 ? 15.4 mm (1975 to 2012),
with high temporal (CV = 53.3%) and spatial fluctuations.
The trend analysis indicates an increasing annual rainfall
(Figure 2). Rainfall falls mostly from November to March,
and therefore, there is an extended dry season which influ-
ences forage production from the rangeland.
The natural ecosystem varies from sandveld with bare
rolling dunes covered by grasslands to low shrubland
and shrub savanna along the Nossop and the Molopo
rivers (Burgess 2003); the soil is dominantly Kalahari
sandy soil. The major land use in this district is domi-
nated by wildlife conservation and pastoral farming such
that about one third of the total area of the district is
part of Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park. However, livestock
production is the main economic activity, partly because
low rainfall and poor soil fertility cannot support arable
farming. The pastoral farming in Kgalagadi district is
dominated by traditional production systems character-
ized by continuous grazing of livestock in communally
Figure 1 Location of study sites in Kgalagadi district, Botswana.
Kgosikoma and Batisani Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice 2014, 4:19 Page 2 of 9
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shared land. Cattle and goats are the main livestock
species reared, but sheep are widely owned in Kgalagadi
South. This region is sparsely inhabited by about 42,000
people (CSO 2001), and Tsabong town is the administra-
tive centre for the district.
Methods
The monthly rainfall data for Bokspits, located in Kgalagadi
South, was obtained from the Department of Meteoro-
logical Services, the national authority on climate data
collection. Bokspits was selected because the data for
this village was available over 30 years (1975 to 2012)
and therefore represents a long-term perspective. Long-
duration records were also desirable for calculating the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), as providing more
reliable statistics. The SPI is used to assess the seriousness
of drought conditions as shown in Table 1. In addition,
Bokspits rainfall was also representative of Kgalagadi
South area, and its low rainfall is likely to be limiting to
livestock population growth.
In terms of livestock population dynamics, only data for
dominant species (cattle and goats) was collected from the
Government Statistics Unit. The time series on livestock
populations and production performance indicators were
based on annual surveys undertaken by the Agricultural
Statistics Unit of the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in
collaboration with the Division of Agricultural Planning
and Statistics (DAPS). The production performance indi-
cators referred to birth rates, death rates and off-take rates
for each livestock species, shown in Table 2. The birth rate
is the ratio of total number of births to total number of
female animals (e.g. cows) during the survey year. The
death rate is the ratio of total number of deaths over total
number of animals during the survey year, while the off-
take rate is the ratio of off-take (Sales −Purchase + Home
slaughter) over total number of animals during the survey
year (CSO 1996). The livestock data under the traditional
production system was available for a period of 20 years
from 1980 to 2003 with data gaps for 1991, 1992, 2000,
2004 and 2005 due to no data collection during those
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Mean annual precipitation
Figure 2 Annual rainfall variability and trend line at Bokspits.
Table 1 SPI values and corresponding drought categories
SPI values Drought category
2.0 and above Extremely wet
1.5 to 1.99 Very wet
1.0 to 1.49 Moderately wet
−.99 to .99 Near normal
−1.00 to −1.49 Moderate drought
−1.50 to −1.99 Severe drought
≤−2.0 Extreme drought
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particular years. The limitation of the current data is lack
of livestock populations at local community scale, and
hence, data presented is at district level.
A structured questionnaire consisting of both open- and
close-ended questions was used to collect data on the
people?s adaptation strategy to drought. Pastoral farmers,
selected from alternating households from a random start-
ing point, were asked about the strategies they practised
to mitigate the impact of drought on livestock. The
sample size in Bokspits (n=40) was small, and there-
fore, the questionnaire was also administered to the
neighbouring village of Vaalhoek (n=31), about 5 km
from Bokspits and therefore shares communal range-
lands. Bokspits and Vaalhoek had about 105 and 51
households, respectively (IVPBOT 03, 2004). Two local
enumerators were used to administer the questionnaire
so that they could explain the questions clearly to
respondents.
Statistical analysis
Monthly rainfall data was used to calculate the SPI. A
software known as SPI_SL_6.exe file downloaded online
(http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/spi/program/spi.program.
htm) was used to calculate the SPI from monthly rainfall
data. Regression analysis in Minitab was used to determine
associations between livestock populations and rainfall vari-
ability. The chi-square test in SPSS was used to compare
adaptation strategies adopted by pastoral communities at
Bokspits and Vaalhoek.
Results
Drought characteristics in Kgalagadi
Precipitation in Bokspits fluctuated highly temporally as
reflected by changes in SPI over the years as shown in
Figure 3 and high rainfall coefficient of variation (53.3%).
Both 12- and 24-month SPI indicated that drought is a
recurring environmental problem as several SPI were
negative; this was further supported by the high rainfall
coefficient of variation. In particular, 1987 depicted an
extremely dry year, followed by a wet year. However,
extreme wet and dry periods based on the 12-month
SPI were rare (2.7% and 1.6%, respectively) during the
observed period (445 months). Most of the time (70%),
the SPI indicated that precipitation was near normal
to mild drought (0 to −.99) and then followed by
Table 2 Livestock performance indicators in Kgalagadi
communal area
Performance indicators Cattle Goats
Birth rate 51.89 ? 3.84 42.66 ? 1.23
Death rate 14.32 ? 2.25 27.86 ? 2.78
Off-take 10.32 ? 0.80 12.15 ? 0.98
Figure 3 Standardized precipitation index of Bokspits in Kgalagadi South.
Kgosikoma and Batisani Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice 2014, 4:19 Page 4 of 9
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moderately dry periods (10%). The SPI also indicated that
drought frequencies had declined since around 2000 at
Bokspits relative to the previous period. The 24-month
SPI showed an increased frequency and severity of
drought in Bokspits.
Association between rainfall variability and livestock
population dynamics
In general, the livestock population increased with in-
creasing mean annual rainfall. This is illustrated by a
positive association observed between the goat popula-
tion and mean annual rainfall. The mean annual rainfall
of Bokspits accounted for 43.4% (r
2
) of goat population
variability (P<0.01) (Figure 4). The goat death rate also
decreased with increasing mean annual rainfall (P<0.05)
(Figure 5). The goat population in the study area was
also positively correlated to the cattle population (r=0.80,
P<0.001).
However, the cattle population was not significantly
associated with Bokspits mean annual rainfall (P>0.05),
and only a small variability of the cattle?s population was
accounted for by Bokspits mean annual rainfall (Figure 6).
The communities?adaptation to rainfall variability
The pastoral community applied different drought cop-
ing strategies to reduce the impact of drought on their
livestock (Table 3). The pastoralists at Bokspits and
Vaalhoek tend to destock during droughts. All pastoral-
ists at Vaalhoek indicated that they supplement their
livestock, compared to 80% of pastoralists at Bokspits
who indicated that they supplement. Mobility was still
practised at both sites, mostly at Bokspits as an alterna-
tive adaptation strategy.
Discussion
Drought characteristics in Kgalagadi
Rainfall in Kgalagadi was characterized by high temporal
variability and high rainfall coefficient of variation. This
indicates that the Kgalagadi ecosystem is likely to exhibit
non-equilibrium dynamics as suggested by Ellis and
Galvin (1994) and thus have implications for rangeland
and livestock management (Oba et al. 2000). Precipitation
largely ranged between normal and mild droughts, which
tends to be consistent with another study conducted in
other parts of Botswana (Batisane 2011). Such recurring
2252001751501251007550
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Mean annual rainfall (Bokspits)
Goat population
Figure 4 Association between goat population and mean annual rainfall.
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droughts, though mild, have the ability to create poverty
traps especially for already vulnerable groups such as
women (Sherwood 2013), particularly in areas like Bokspits
where alternative livelihood options are limited. The SPI
for Bokspits also revealed that drought frequencies had
decreased in the last decade relative to previous decades.
This observation needs to be investigated further because
it is contrary to the thinking that southern Africa is likely
to get drier due to climate change and consequently has
high occurrences of rainfall extreme events (Lioubimtseva
and Henebry 2009; Eriksen and Silva 2009).
Association between rainfall variability and livestock
population dynamics
The livestock population in Kgalagadi followed a ?boom
and bust?pattern such that the population increases for
a couple of years and then crashed, as suggested in other
studies in Botswana (Perkins 1991) and elsewhere (McCabe
1987; Desta and Coppock 2002). This is consistent with a
non-equilibrium ecosystem (Angassa and Oba 2007). In
our study, livestock populations generally increased with
increasing rainfall, which could be explained partially by
the importance of rainfall on vegetation production
(Ward et al. 2004). In this study, the goat population
was moderately associated with mean annual precipitation
and basically decreased during drought years. A possible
explanation could be that higher precipitation facilitates
feed availability during the dry season, which subse-
quently minimizes mortality and increases births, leading
to increased goat populations (Mapiye et al. 2009). How-
ever, goats are known to be resilient to harsh conditions
(Toulmin 1996), which is contrary to the observation of
our study. The reason goats are responsive to rainfall vari-
ability in this study could be that they do not forage far
from the degraded ranges around homesteads (McCabe
1987) as they have to return to the kraal at night and are
thus more vulnerable to fluctuations in forage supply. An
alternative explanation could be that goats, unlike cattle,
are reared by almost every household in the study area
and most goats are not supplemented with feed, unlike
cattle owned by better-off households. In addition, the
market for goats in Botswana is not well-organized, com-
pared to the cattle market, and therefore, opportunities to
destock goats during a drought year are limited.
35030025020015010050
60
50
40
30
20
10
Mean annual rainfall (Boks
p
its)
Goats death rate (%)
Figure 5 Association of goats?death rate to mean annual rainfall.
Kgosikoma and Batisani Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice 2014, 4:19 Page 6 of 9
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The cattle population also decreased with decreasing
rainfall, but failed to show a significant relationship with
mean annual rainfall. The results are consistent with
another study that found that climate variability affects
pasture productivity in Africa, but not cattle performance
(Stige et al. 2006). The lack of a significant relationship
between cattle populations and rainfall levels observed in
our study could be due to management interventions by
the pastoral communities to protect their investments
(Stige et al. 2006).
On the contrary, Angassa and Oba (2007) observed that
rainfall variability influenced cattle population dynamics
under communal as well as ranching management systems
in Ethiopia, and their finding was further confirmed by
others (Alemayehu and Fantahun 2012). The observation
on cattle responses to rainfall variability in eastern Africa
differs from our results. The differences could be attributed
to the fact that the cattle production system in Botswana is
relatively less dependent on natural resources as compared
to that in Ethiopia. Supplementation and new water sources
alter the dynamics of non-equilibrium rangeland ecosys-
tems (Wehrden et al. 2012), and this could have decoupled
the cattle population and rainfall variability.
Communities?adaptation to rainfall variability
The pastoral communities applied different adaptation
strategies to reduce the impact of drought on their live-
stock productivity, but their over-reliance on livestock
makes them more vulnerable to climate shocks (Sherwood
2013). In the Kgalagadi study area, pastoralists used feed
supplementation to sustain their livestock, noted else-
where in Botswana (Mogotsi et al. 2011). This strategy is
partially facilitated by government through subsidization
of animal feeds during drought at the Livestock Advisory
2252001751501251007550
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Mean annual rainfall (Boks
p
its)
Cattle population
S 33806.4
R-Sq 13.0%
R-Sq(adj) 7.9%
Figure 6 Association of cattle population and mean annual rainfall.
Table 3 Pastoral communities?drought adaptation
strategies
Adaptation
strategy
Pastoral community
Bokspits
(n=40)
Vaalhoek
(n=31)
χ
2
P-value
Destocking 82.5 83.9 0.023 >0.05
Supplementary feeding 80.0 100 6.99 <0.05
Mobility 67.5 41.9 4.6 <0.05
Kgosikoma and Batisani Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice 2014, 4:19 Page 7 of 9
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Centre located at Bokspits. The pastoralists also used
locally available feed resources like Acacia pods to sup-
plement their animals. In addition, pastoralists tend to
destock some of their cattle during drought as suggested
in other studies (Mogotsi et al. 2011). This strategy works
sufficiently for cattle because there is a well-organized
market through the Botswana Meat Commission. How-
ever, there is no well-organized market for goats and
sheep and pastoralists are therefore not able to sell these
in time. This could also explain why the goat population
tends to be more responsive to rainfall variability. Pastoral
farmers in Botswana can also rely on drilled boreholes for
water supplies in droughts.
Mobility was another strategy used to cope with drought,
because Bokspits area exhibits spatial vegetation het-
erogeneity between sand dunes, which influences forage
availability for grazing animals (Scoones 1995). Therefore,
livestock mobility is necessary to effectively use the het-
erogeneous vegetation and widely practised in communal
rangelands of Africa to cope with drought (Samuels et al.
2013). But pasture land reforms such as the Tribal Grazing
Land Policy (TGLP) of Botswana, which promotes fencing
and privatization of communal land, limit the ability of
pastoralists and farmers to move their livestock between
grazing areas. This could also explain why this strategy
was least used by pastoralists at Bokspits as there are
fenced ranches around their grazing lands. Though mobil-
ity is widely practised across Africa, it needs to be well-
planned; otherwise, animals could be crowded in one area
especially during droughts, leading to overgrazing, range
degradation and eventually increased livestock mortality
(Nkedianye et al. 2011).
Conclusion
Kgalagadi South is characterized by frequent normal to
mild droughts and infrequent moderate droughts as
indicated by a high rainfall coefficient of variation and
low SPI indexes. The impact of recurring droughts tends
to lead to decline in livestock populations, particularly
goats. The weak association between livestock populations,
especially cattle and rainfall variability, suggests that man-
agement practices are buffering the impacts of climate
shocks. Current pastoral farmers?adaptation strategies
include destocking, feed supplementation and mobility.
The sustainability of mobility as an adaptation practice is
questionable due to continued promotion of the Tribal
Grazing Land Policy, which will result in most communal
grazing land being managed as private ranches. Hence,
there is a need for an improved drought management pol-
icy that would complement pastoral farmers?adaptation
practices and improve resilience to drought.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Authors?contributions
OK developed the concept, collected the data, carried out the data analysis
and drafted the manuscript. NB provided the rainfall data and commented
on the manuscript. Both authors approved the final manuscript.
Authors?information
OK (Ph.D.) is an ecologist at the Department of Agricultural Research and carries
out research on ecosystem management and climate change. NB is a Professor
in Earth and Environmental Systems and Lead Researcher in Climate Change at
Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation.
Acknowledgements
Thanks to Indegeneous Vegetation Project (IVP) for funding and provision of
Map. Professor Gufu Oba advice and guidance during the study is
appreciated. Thanks to Kgalagadi community, A. Moroke, K. Dintwe, and
enumerators for their support during fieldwork. Gratitute to Department of
Meterological Services and Ministry of Agriculture for providing secoondary
data.
Author details
1
Department of Agricultural Research, Private Bag 033, Gaborone, Botswana.
2
Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation, Private Bag
0082, Gaborone, Botswana.
Received: 13 June 2014 Accepted: 21 October 2014
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Cite this article as: Kgosikoma and Batisani: Livestock population
dynamics and pastoral communities?adaptation to rainfall variability in
communal lands of Kgalagadi South, Botswana. Pastoralism: Research,
Policy and Practice 2014 4:19.
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