Article

The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.

... Изучением сценариев как образов возможного будущего занимались Kahn & Wiener (1967); Schwartz (1996) Разнообразные подходы к пониманию сущности термина «сценарий» обеспечили всестороннее рассмотрение этого термина как представления информации о возможном будущем. Сценарии позволяют «предвидеть» развитие событий и управлять проактивно, что обеспечивает скорость реакции на изменения среды бизнеса при принятии решений. ...
... Для понимания термина «сценарий» в рамках данного исследования были проанализированы определения авторитетных авторов И. Никитинс, В. А. Чернова, А. В. Чернов в области сценарного планирования, таких как Kahn & Wiener (1967); Schwartz (1996) Ringland (1998). ...
... Приведем лишь некоторые определения. Так, Kahn & Wiener (1967) первыми использовали понятие «сценарий» и понимали под ним потенциальные последовательности событий, подготовленные для выявления случайных процессов и связанных с ними проблем принятия решений. ...
Article
Full-text available
Предмет. Многообразие подходов к определению понятия «сценарное планирование» и методов его осуществления привело к так называемому «методологическому хаосу сценарного планирования», что создает сложности для его понимания и применения в практике стратегического управления.Цель. Упорядочение накопленных знаний и снижение уровня методологического хаоса в области сценарного планирования для повышения его применимости в практике стратегического управления.Методы. Исследование основано на применении общенаучных методов анализа, синтеза, обобщения при изучении и систематизации накопленного массива знаний в области сценарного планирования.Результаты. Сценарное планирование представляет собой инструмент стратегического планирования, который целесообразно применять для изучения возможного будущего в условиях неопределенности среды. Авторами представлена систематизация понятий сценарное планирование и сценарий как его результат, определено оптимальное количество сценариев, необходимое для принятия стратегических решений с учетом ресурсозатратности разработки сценариев с одной стороны и необходимости избежания ловушки изучения различных аспектов одного и того же сценария с другой.Выводы. В условиях нарастания неопределенности среды сценарное планирование, направленное на выявление альтернативных сценариев развития будущего, представляется предпочтительным методом исследования, поскольку способно обеспечить информационную поддержку принятия стратегических решений. В силу сказанного упорядочение накопленных знаний в данной области необходимо для науки и практики управления.
... From all analyzed articles, 33 documents -scientific articles and book chapters -were identified and constituted this research population. As the basis for the present research, we took into consideration the works of the following authors: Kahn & Wiener (1967); Porter (1985); Schnaars (1987); Schoemaker (1991); Schwartz (1991); Simpson (1992); Fontela & Hingel (1993); Bloom & Menefee (1994); Collyns (1994); Thomas (1994); Schoemaker (1995); Godet & Roubelat (1996); Geus (1997); Van der Heijden (1997); Alexander & Serfass (1998) ;Fahey & Randall (1998); Ringland (1998); Kahane (1999); Kloss (1999); Tucker (1999); Coates (2000); Godet (2000Godet ( , 2001; Jouvenel (2000); Wilson (2000); Martelli (2001) It is noteworthy that 46% of the authors have institutional links with universities, mainly in the United States (68%), where the term "scenario" was appropriated by the field in the 1950s by Herman Kahn, according to Van der Heijden (1997) and Fahey & Randall (1998). However, there are also articles from France, England, Australia, Germany, Spain, Finland, the Netherlands, and Italy. ...
... This category is a purpose identified in all documents. The authors cited it as a purpose, either on scenario building or on scenario planning process (Kahn & Wiener, 1967;Porter, 1985;Schnaars, 1987;Schoemaker, 1991;Schwartz, 1991;Simpson, 1992;Fontela & Hingel, 1993;Bloom & Menefee, 1994;Collyns, 1994;Thomas, 1994;Schoemaker, 1995;Godet & Roubelat, 1996;Geus, 1997;Van der Heijden, 1997;Alexander & Serfass, 1998;Fahey & Randall, 1998;Ringland, 1998;Kahane, 1999;Kloss, 1999;Tucker, 1999;Coates, 2000;Godet, 2000Godet, , 2001Jouvenel, 2000;Wilson, 2000;Martelli, 2001;Chermack & Lynham, 2002;Bishop et al., 2007;Pillkahn, 2008;Barber, 2009;Hiltunen, 2009;Saliba, 2009;Wilkinson, 2009). It is perceived as having great importance, often seen as the primary objective of the process. ...
Article
Full-text available
Os métodos de planejamento por cenários têm sido usados desde a década de 1950. No entanto, não há uma definição que seja amplamente utilizada neste campo de estudo. Para que este campo evolua adequadamente, é essencial uma compreensão abrangente quanto ao propósito de uma organização ao utilizá-lo. O objetivo deste artigo foi apresentar os propósitos do planejamento por cenário, que foram identificados em revisão da literatura sobre cenários e planejamento por cenários. Assim, 33 documentos técnico-científicos foram analisados, cujos autores definiram cenários e planejamento por cenários. Os resultados mostram 15 finalidades diferentes para o planejamento de cenários, que consolidamos em seis categorias que representam diferentes usos desse processo. Em seguida, geramos insights tanto para pesquisadores como para profissionais que buscam uma compreensão aprofundada quanto ao uso desses métodos.
... Scenario analysis usually provides a more qualitative and contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future rather than a description that seeks numerical precision. Scenario analysis is also generally used to identify a set of possible futures where the occurrence of each is plausible, but none is assured (Jarke, 1999;Kahn and Wiener, 1967). ...
... Scenarios can be considered hypothetical images of the future, which describe the functioning of a system under different conditions with a certain degree of uncertainty. Kahn and Wiener (1967) originally defined scenarios as "hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points". There is not a single and unique approach to foresight. ...
Article
Full-text available
The study aims to analyse through scenario analysis the future market opportunities for products derived from insects for food and feed (IFF) in Europe. The embryonic state of the IFF industry and the lack of sufficient and detailed quantitative information did not allow the adoption of more quantitative models. Compared to standard statistical forecasting techniques, scenario analysis allows for considering the impact of future exogenous shocks and significant structural changes in the system under investigation. Organisational learning is best performed collectively. Scenario analysis is a very relevant part of this process and can lead to better strategy and action planning. The scenario time horizon was fixed to 2035, while the spatial framework was the European Union. The analysis involved a selected group of experts and stakeholders of the IFF sector to provide a shared knowledge basis that was exploited to define eight different scenarios. Two of the eight resulting scenarios are favourable for the IFF sector, and two outline adverse outcomes for the industry. The remaining four scenarios refer to contrasting situations for the IFF sector. Some implications emerge for the future development of the IFF industry: the embryonic state of the IFF business in the EU makes it very vulnerable to shocks; the crucial role of policy and regulatory framework in the insect sector, together with the different degrees of societal concerns for sustainability may strongly affect the development of IFF. Relevant aspects that emerge in some scenarios are the cooperation and industrial ecosystems with open innovation and collective IPR protection; the importance of dedicated credit; improvement of the knowledge system, and the circular economy potential of IFF for treating waste, especially in the feed sector.
... Initially applied to research weapons technology, Kahn's approach combined detailed analyses with imagination, producing reports written from a future perspective. Kahn 4.1 Framework for the Future: The Role of Scenario Planning … 57 later founded the Hudson Institute, specializing in writing stories about the future to help people consider the "unthinkable," such as the consequences of nuclear war [6,7]. ...
... Over the years, scenario planning has evolved into distinct schools [9]. The Intuitive Logics School (Anglo-Saxon School), rooted in Herman Kahn's work [6,7], involves identifying forces, ranking uncertainties, and constructing scenarios. Royal Dutch/Shell stands as a notable pioneer in this approach. ...
Chapter
The role of scenario planning in architectural and urban decision-making is critical for addressing the complexities and uncertainties inherent in the built environment, particularly in the context of climate change. By providing a structured framework to envision alternative futures, scenario planning facilitates strategic decision-making that is both robust and adaptable. This exploration delves into the theoretical underpinnings of scenario planning, analyzing its conceptual intricacies and applicability within urban planning. Emphasis is placed on integrating scenario planning with Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methodologies to equip professionals with the tools necessary for navigating future uncertainties. These methodologies enhance the capacity of planners to prepare for diverse future conditions, ensuring sustainable and resilient urban environments. This integrated approach is essential for fostering urban resilience and adaptability in the face of climate change. Through detailed analysis and a case study, the benefits and challenges of scenario planning and DMDU are illustrated, providing valuable insights for practitioners. By leveraging these advanced planning tools, urban planners can better navigate the dynamic and uncertain landscape of architectural and urban development, ensuring cities are prepared for future challenges and opportunities.
... Scenario analysis has a long tradition [15] and was first used for military strategies [16] and in the late 1960s in the energy and business context by Royal Dutch Shell [17]. Today, they are central tools in climate change and energy transition research, where uncertainty and complexity are high [18,19,20]. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Europe is warming at the fastest rate of all continents, experiencing a temperature increase of about 1{\deg}C higher than the corresponding global increase. Aiming to be the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 under the European Green Deal, Europe requires an in-depth understanding of the potential energy transition pathways. In this paper, we develop four qualitative long-term scenarios covering the European energy landscape, considering key uncertainty pillars -- categorized under social, technological, economic, political, and geopolitical aspects. First, we place the scenarios in a three-dimensional space defined by Social dynamics, Innovation, and Geopolitical instabilities. These scenarios are brought to life by defining their narratives and focus areas according to their location in this three-dimensional space. The scenarios envision diverse futures and include distinct features. The EU Trinity scenario pictures how internal divisions among EU member states, in the context of global geopolitical instability, affect the EU climate targets. The REPowerEU++ scenario outlines the steps needed for a self-sufficient, independent European energy system by 2050. The Go RES scenario examines the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality earlier than 2050 given favourable uncertain factors. The NECP Essentials scenario extends current national energy and climate plans until 2060 to assess their role in realizing climate neutrality. The scenarios are extended by incorporating policies and economic factors and detailed in a Qualitative to Quantitative (Q2Q) matrix, linking narratives to quantification. Finally, two scenarios are quantified to illustrate the quantification process. All the scenarios are in the process of being quantified and will be openly available and reusable.
... Na década de 1960, Kahn fundou o Hudson Institute, especializado em fomentar o pensamento sobre o "inimaginável". Sob essa orientação, cenários são definidos como "sequências hipotéticas de eventos construídas com o propósito de focar a atenção em processos causais e pontos de decisão" (Kahn;Wiener, 1967, p.6, tradução nossa). Segundo Kahn e Wiener (1967) duas perguntas orientam sua abordagem via cenários e análise do contexto sistêmico: como uma situação futura hipotética se desenvolveu? ...
Book
Full-text available
Conceberos Futuros como um eixo de reflexão rigorosa para a fundamentação das práticas políticas é algo razoavelmente recente, ainda que o pensamento ocidental tenha reservado um espaço importante de reflexão ao tema ao longo de séculos. Os Futuros ora são apresentados de forma misteriosa, por vezes como uma ação destinada a afastar a maioria das decisões. Em outras ocasiões, são propostos em formato rígido e predeterminado, até único, condição oportuna para a supressão de possibilidades alternativas, condicionando os Futuros como uma continuação do passado e de uma ordem social estabelecida. Este livro é um convite em outra direção. Um convite para que os Futuros surjam como possibilidades efetivas, como formas de luta, de resistência, de afrontamentos a quem os concebe como uma cidadela inexpugnável. Contudo, a volição pela transformação dos Futuros é insuficiente, e mesmo inócua, quando ausente o amparo de premissas, metodologias e métodos. Os artigos aqui contidos apresentam reflexões, postulações e, fundamentalmente, uma combinação entre as exigências da ciência e o revigorar da arte, um tributo à dupla face de Janus.
... Thinkable futures are often presented in the form of scenarios (Kahn and Wiener, 1967;Durance and Godet, 2010). A set of scenarios describes elements and boundaries of different futures but not variations of one of them (Schoemaker, 1995). ...
Article
Full-text available
Farmland abandonment and its natural afforestation occur in many countries, although net cropland expansion continues globally. Some strategies focus on recultivating abandoned farmland, while others focus on alternative land uses, including silviculture, carbon sequestration, and rewilding. Russia holds the world's largest areas of abandoned farmland overgrown with forests. However, these forests are informal and unregulated since no legal land category allows landowners to engage in forestry. Environmental NGOs and forest experts advocate for silviculture on abandoned farmland as an alternative to 'wood mining' in primary wild forests. In contrast, pro-agrarian policymakers and state actors resist this idea by discussing recultivation, national food security, and state land control. The future management of Russia's abandoned farmland has potential global environmental and economic impacts, yet it remains understudied. This study aims to understand (1) what future options for forest management on abandoned farmland are plausible in Russia, how they compare to those in other countries , and (2) how experts justify the preferability and likelihood of these future options. The study is based on the Delphi approach: two rounds of anonymous expert evaluation with controlled feedback. We identified seven future management alternatives: business as usual, agricultural recultivation, carbon forest management, and four forest management options. The most preferable options include private forestry: small-scale forestry managed by private landowners and large-scale industrial forestry managed by companies. The least preferable option is the most probable: business as usual-informal and unregulated forests on unused, abandoned farmland. No option was assessed as highly preferable and highly probable. Using the Russian example, we conclude that abandoned farmland use policies may consider forestry a future management option. However, opening abandoned farmlands to forestry may encounter legal and institutional barriers and cause controversy.
... Several authors recognize the work of Herman Kahnm, who worked at Rand in the 1950s, as the introducer of the concept of prospective scenarios, when he founded the Hudson Institute and published the book The Year 2000, in 1967. These same authors warn about the issue The basic aspect of scenario prospecting is not being able to get them right, but rather expanding your horizons [1]. ...
Article
Consumer demands are increasingly greater and dynamic and have provoked increasingly fierce competition, while at the same time arousing great interest in the need for tools for evaluating future alternative possibilities. The complexity of managing organizations and the search for tools that would allow organizations to better guide themselves in the face of the new reality gave rise to the study of prospective scenarios, as a methodology capable of conceiving a range of possibilities. And, in this way, expand the ability of organizations to design and monitor their strategic actions, to implement and preserve their competitive advantages. The present study reviews this important methodology, its main concepts, and related applications. The conclusions indicate the validity of using prospective scenarios, as a tool to help define strategies, while taking ownership of uncertainty and risk, making the positioning a more robust strategy.
... These stories explain the different paths to different futures (40,54,64). These stories include a series of causal events and their interactions that describe spaces of the future (65,66). Finally, scenario writing makes organizations more flexible and creative in the face of the future (67). ...
Article
Full-text available
Context: Our world is characterized by a dynamic landscape of variations, complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities (VUCA). These elements manifest in various domains, including politics, economics, communication, information, science, and research, all of which significantly impact our lives. It is crucial for policymakers and managers to adopt a forward-thinking approach to comprehend these VUCA elements and their implications for the future. The future will undoubtedly differ from the present and the past. However, humans possess an inherent desire to understand and anticipate the future, particularly in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, exploring and understanding the future is not just a curiosity, but a necessity. Futures Studies can serve as a valuable tool in this context, enabling us to efficiently leverage opportunities and resources to navigate the chaotic environment. Review studies play a pivotal role in this process by reviewing existing work and synthesizing knowledge in a specific field. This study aims to collate findings related to the key concepts of Futures Research, thereby contributing to our collective understanding and preparation for the future.
... In [57], the authors categorise scenario methods into three main groups. Intuitive Logics is a qualitative approach, introduced by [80], relies on expert judgment to develop scenarios without using mathematical models. It focuses on generating diverse future environments to explore strategic alternatives and assess potential impacts, making it suitable for exploratory long-term planning. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
In the era of Industry 4.0, system reliability engineering faces both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, the complexity of cyber-physical systems, the integration of novel numerical technologies, and the handling of large amounts of data pose new difficulties for ensuring system reliability. On the other hand, innovations such as AI-driven prognostics, digital twins, and IoT-enabled systems enable the implementation of new methodologies that are transforming reliability engineering. Condition-based monitoring and predictive maintenance are examples of key advancements, leveraging real-time sensor data collection and AI to predict and prevent equipment failures. These approaches reduce failures and downtime, lower costs, and extend equipment lifespan and sustainability. However, it also brings challenges such as data management, integrating complexity, and the need for fast and accurate models and algorithms. Overall, the convergence of advanced technologies in Industry 4.0 requires a rethinking of reliability tasks, emphasising adaptability and real-time data processing. In this chapter, we propose to review recent innovations in the field, related methods and applications, as well as challenges and barriers that remain to be explored. In the red lane, we focus on smart manufacturing and automotive engineering applications with sensor-based monitoring and driver assistance systems.
... In all fields, scenarios are conjectural artifacts widely used to think about the future evolution of some hypothetical situation, the alternatives to it, and the process to get there [19]. They may take different forms of narrative description of a possible state of development over time [20,21], often integrated with visual elements and other supporting information. ...
Article
Full-text available
This article explores how design, as a disciplinary field, can play a role in conceiving and supporting transition strategies within complex food systems where multiple actors are involved and sustainability is a priority. The work builds on the methodology of Design-Orienting Scenarios (DOS), which are future-oriented narratives motivated, illustrated, and visualized through specific solutions. DOS are applied here to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Milano Food System, which is at the intersection of dynamics influencing the activities of its various ‘nodes’—pivotal points in the supply chain. A specific scenario is then co-designed with relevant actors, combining two influencing factors: governance and sustainability strategy. The aim of this scenario is to highlight areas of multi-actor collaboration and spark transformative projects while also defining roles, values, and capabilities. This article further introduces the evolution of DOS into Transitioning Design-Orienting Scenarios (T-DOS), designed to facilitate outcome-oriented transitions. Characterized by a multi-actor and relational perspective, T-DOS engage stakeholders through a structured process, leveraging local challenges, resources, and actors to ensure the relevance and applicability of practical futures. The T-DOS methodology is finally discussed as a tool to guide systemic design-oriented conversations within the food system and, more broadly, within complex systems.
... Scenario-based approaches are useful for strategic planning in that they allow decision-makers to plan and prepare for various scenarios that are plausible but not necessarily likely. Scenario analysis has been in use since at least the 1960s when it was pioneered by leading strategic thinkers such as Herman Kahn at RAND (Kahn and Wiener 1967;Huss 1988), although the first academic paper on a comprehensive method for scenario creation dates to Zentner in 1975. Perhaps the most famous case of scenario analysis was by the Royal Dutch Shell Corporation during the 1973 oil crisis (Cornelius et al. 2005), in which Shell effectively utilised scenario planning to significantly outperform others in the sector in navigating the fallout from this shock event. ...
Preprint
We present insights from "Intelligence Rising", a scenario exploration exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay. Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the destabilising effects of AI races, the crucial role of international cooperation in mitigating catastrophic risks, the challenges of aligning corporate and national interests, and the potential for rapid, transformative change in AI capabilities. We highlight places where we believe the game has been effective in exposing participants to the complexities and uncertainties inherent in AI governance. Key recurring gameplay themes include the emergence of international agreements, challenges to the robustness of such agreements, the critical role of cybersecurity in AI development, and the potential for unexpected crises to dramatically alter AI trajectories. By documenting these insights, we aim to provide valuable foresight for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers navigating the complex landscape of AI development and governance.
... Initially, the scenario was considered as a literary and dramatic work, written as a basis for the production of film or television, and other events in the theater and elsewhere. In the twentieth century, Herman Kahn, a leading analyst at the RAND Corporation [16], adapted this term for use in writing possible stories of future developments. Kahn is often cited as a father of scenario planning. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A software quality assessment (SQA) is a mandatory process in ensuring the required quality of software as part of the overall software development process. The constant development of existing information technologies and the emergence of new information technologies (artificial intelligence, cloud computing, virtual and augmented reality, etc.) and systems increase the requirements for the assessment process and software quality assurance. Existing approaches to a quality assessment have significant problems: a weak formalization in the planning SQA tasks; a high degree of uncertainty in decision making by the responsible participants of the process; insufficient or redundant information; determining the number of participants in the software assessment process. Recent publications in open access, which consider the scenario approach in general and in relation to the tasks of assessing the software quality, were analyzed. More detailed attention was paid to the description of the scenario approach for SQA tasks. Existing approaches to formalizing the scenario approach do not take into account all the features of SQA. The purpose of the article is to develop a model of a software quality assessment scenario. The article proposes a representation and description of the software quality assessment scenario model, which consists of the following 7 elements: initial conditions, input data, actions, transition data, corrective factors, roles, and results. It has been found that a scenario during its life cycle can be in the following states: scenario on paper, pilot scenario, and real scenario. During the transition to each state, sets of scenario elements can change. To formalize such changes, additional operations on the scenario were introduced and formally described: an operation of exclusion and an operation of inclusion. Variants of inequalities of scenario elements sets were considered for the scenario on paper and the pilot scenario. As a result, the extended model of the SQA scenario was developed and presented. It can be used for software quality assessment based on the software fault injection. And can be considered as universal model for SQA also for applied intelligent systems.
... DECLINISTS An important polarization proposed by Barbieri Masini (1993) within Futures Studies is that between "pessimists" and "optimists." The former look mainly at the social dimension and the risk that major global trends will lead toward a catastrophic future (e.g., Meadows et al., 1972;Vacca, 1973), while the latter emphasize the technological dimension and look positively at the possibility that technology will enable a future of abundance (e.g., Kahn, 1967;Naisbitt, 1982). Barbieri Masini's dichotomy can best be understood from a historicizing perspective by identifying at the very origins of Futures Studies a similar polarization between positivists and declinists. ...
Chapter
The chapter presents an overview of the history of Futures Studies and the main problems of periodization and defining the origin of the discipline. The history of Futures Studies is traced back to the early 20th century, when two distinct objects of analysis--prediction of the future and visions of the future--began to converge. Nevertheless, a direct filiation of mid-20th-century futurology from 19th-century positivism can be traced. Modern Futures Studies grew out of a move away from the naive approach of futurology and an understanding that there is no ontological symmetry between past and future. Nonetheless, the empirical-predictive component has never been completely overcome and continues to resurface even after the postmodern turn and the emergence of critical and normative approaches. While the 1960s and 1970s saw the institutionalization of Futures Studies, beginning in the 1980s the professionalization of futurists became the most prominent trend. This now risks bringing back the old polarization between positivists and declinists that lies at the origins of the discipline.
... Scenario techniques and forecasting developed by Herman Kahn at RAND, and later when he started the Hudson Institute in 1961, were used to create systematic conjectures of the future. A 'multi-fold trend' of some of these future scenarios was urbanisation and the growth of megalopolises (Kahn, 1967). A range of scenario techniques were developed by a number of researchers and applied to many areas, but urbanisation was featured throughout (Bradfield et al., 2005). ...
Article
Full-text available
Urban planning has been simulated through various city-building games such as The Sumerian Game (1964), SimCity (1989), and Cities: Skylines (2015), amongst many others. Gaming technology has been utilized in 3D GIS, City Information Models (CIMs), and Urban Digital Twins (UDTs) to enhance public participation and engagement in the planning process. This article studies the overlap and ‘game-like’ qualities of these systems and presents an Urban Game Continuum. This interactive tool works in tandem with a taxonomy of city-building games and existing UDTs in order to assist with the design of future systems. A case study imported GeoData from Lancaster, UK, into a games platform. The continuum tool and case study offer new insights into opportunities for the utilisation of game design and gaming technology in urban planning and digital transformation. The article argues that the current use of gaming technology for real-world applications is one-directional and misses opportunities to include digital game design and research, such as mechanics, dynamics, flow, and public participatory world-building for future scenarios. By incorporating these elements, UDT systems could offer higher levels of citizen engagement.
... Scenario planning (Kahn and Wiener, 1967;Amer et al., 2013), which aims to create long-term strategic plans, necessitates extensive expert brainstorming and discussion. Performing scenario planning for the future of public transportation and shared mobility during COVID-19 recovery, for example, requires up to 18 experts. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Thinking about the future is one of the important activities that people do in daily life. Futurists also pay a lot of effort into figuring out possible scenarios for the future. We argue that the exploration of this direction is still in an early stage in the NLP research. To this end, we propose three argument generation tasks in the financial application scenario. Our experimental results show these tasks are still big challenges for representative generation models. Based on our empirical results, we further point out several unresolved issues and challenges in this research direction.
... The Art of Conjecture (1967) und The Year 2000 von Herman Kahn und Anthony J. Wiener (1967). Seit 1964 leitete Daniel Bell die von der American Academy of Arts and Science eingesetzte Kommission für das Jahr 2000, eine Tätigkeit, die schließlich zur Veröffentlichung von Bells The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1973) ...
... Scenarios, generally, allows decision-makers to anticipate coming changes and plan timely responses to help adapt for the change (Schwartz, 2012). The use of scenarios has the ability to contest orthodox thinking and challenge previously accepted norms for the future (Kahn & Wiener, 1967) with the objective of producing a small number of scenarios with plausible explanations of system factors that can be possibly different in each scenario (Mahmoud et al., 2009). Scenario thinking has variously been studied from qualitative, quantitative, and mixed method perspectives (Chermack et al., 2001). ...
... Scenarios refer to narratives of possible futures (Bishop, Hines, and Collins 2007) wherein a sequence of events can direct attention to causal processes and decision points, aiding the preparation of possible futures (Kahn and Wiener 1967). In the example case, a scenario was iteratively designed in collaboration with domain experts (see also Hammarbäck et al. 2023). ...
... Scenario planning is instrumental in decision-making as it helps organizations to be more flexible and innovative towards possible outcomes (Amer et al., 2013). Herbert Kahn first developed scenario planning while working at RAND Corporation and since then, scenario planning has been promoted as a key technique for strategy forming and still has many challenges to be resolved by effective execution (Kahn & Wiener, 1967;Lehr et al., 2017;Peterson et al., 2003). ...
... The use of scenarios can be traced back to Kahn and Wiener (1967). After its introduction in the defense sector, the scenario technique has been used in many fields of application and adapted to different needs, resulting in a large number of variations and combinations of scenario methods. ...
Book
Full-text available
This new volume of European Academy of Land Use and Development (EALD) contains broad view and interdisciplinary peer reviewed articles that inform the reader of most recent scientific investigations in Land Management. The spectrum of contributions cover: regulations, governance and implementation of land management along with assessment of relevant data. Some of the key highlights include various scientific and practical approaches, applied methods and systems together with a discussion and understanding of the government’s role in various European countries. Committed to sustainability, the articles entailed give evidence to Europe as an experimental ground for land management issues as well as allows for collaboration in pursuit of best practices.
... З іншого боку, його роботи сприяють активізації суспільної дискусії і усвідомленню реальної загрози самознищення людства, а для футурології роблять важливий внесок у розвиток методу побудови сценаріїв. Згодом Г. Кан також стає широковідомим завдяки книзі у співавторстві із Е. Вінером «Рік 2000: основа для розмірковування про перспективи наступних 33 років» (1967 р.) [9], у якій автори на основі власної індустріальної теорії формулюють прогнози на майбутнє. ...
Article
Full-text available
Futures studies is an evolving discipline that becomes more and more needed in today's globalized world. The paper is devoted to the brief overview of the futures studies' history without which it is hardly possible to understand the tasks and peculiarities of this interdisciplinary field of knowledge. For this purpose, the key ideas, concepts, and events on the way of development of futures studies as a separate discipline are revealed and characterized; the thinkers and scholars considered to be outstanding futurists of the past and present are also mentioned. The whole history of futures studies is divided into four stages, including the origins, the emergence of the discipline, the creation of basic concepts and institutions, and the systematization of knowledge in response to the new challenges of the globalized world. The origins of futures studies are related to religion, utopia, science fiction, historicism, and social sciences achievements in the interwar period. The emergence of futures studies is associated with the establishment of centres for research and discussion of future prospects of mankind in the United States and Europe in the early Cold War period. The setting up of the World Futures Studies Federation and the introduction of the first futures-oriented university courses and educational programs are considered the most important events of the following stage of futures studies development. This period is also associated with the emergence of the concepts of post-industrial society, global problems, sustainable development, which became crucial for futures studies and international policy design in the next decades. With regard to the present stage, the emphasis is laid on the emergence of fundamental theoretical works in the field of futures studies, the development of new methods and techniques of futures research, and the launch of government and corporate foresight projects. It is concluded that the problems of technological dominance, dehumanization, globalization appear to be the main challenges for mankind in the present world and the most topical themes for research. In the end, the main tasks of modern futures studies concerning critical assessment of reality, identification of trends for exploiting opportunities and counteracting threats, and creation preferable images of the future are defined.
... A seminal prediction was published by Kahn and Wiener in 1967, From The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. 9 Kahn and Wiener use a combination of macrohistory and an approach similar to FAR to make many forecasts about society in the 2000s. There are some laughably wrong predictions, such as the use of nuclear weapons for mining and an artificial moon to light up areas at night. ...
Article
Full-text available
Computer systems are increasingly interconnected, magnifying benefits and risks, especially with AI integration. Using a Delphi-based method, we interviewed technology futurists about potential trends towards 2040 and their societal impacts. Our findings highlight five key forecasts related to artificial intelligence and system complexity, and suggest six interventions to mitigate negative impacts.
Book
Geodesign, Urban Digital Twins, and Futures explores systems, processes, and novel technologies for planning, mapping, and designing our built environment. In a period of advancing urban infrastructure, technological autonomy in cities, and high-performance geographic systems, new capabilities, novel techniques, and streamlined procedures have emerged concurrently with climatic challenges, pandemics, and increasing global urbanisation. Chapters cover a range of topics such as urban digital twins, GeoBIM, geodesign and collaborative tools, immersive environments, gamification, and future methods. This book features over 100 international projects and workflows, five detailed case studies, and a companion website. In addition, this book examines geodesign as an agent for collaboration alongside futuring methods for imagining and understanding our future world. The companion website for this book can be accessed at http://geodesigndigitaltwins.com.
Chapter
This chapter further interrogates what scenarios are, as well as further parsing the role and value of engaging in scenario planning processes. Alongside detailing strengths and advantages, a number of observed current scenario planning process weaknesses and limitations are charted, notably the frequent adoption of 2×2 matrix approaches, which often generate merely 4 different scenarios overall. A major contention this chapter raises pivots around the key question of: Are detailed scenarios worth the effort, if reduced to just 4? It further asks: Is adopting that approach to scenarios an oversimplification and extended abstraction, which fails to adequately capture the complexities involved at their fullest and dynamically enough? Also a greater role for continuously updating data and intelligence input into overall scenario planning processes is equally advocated throughout, again underscoring the importance of Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) and its conduct for constantly upgrading responses and solutions.
Article
Full-text available
Urbanization has been increasing rapidly world-wide in the past many decades. This paper discusses important factors that affect the successful development of urbanization and urban agglomerations and examines their relationships. Based on Chen (2019)’s findings, this study included sixteen factors. Through surveys of three different groups from China - college faculty, business executives, and government officers on the importance and relevance of these sixteen factors, this paper explores how a city and an urban agglomeration can be successful. It concludes that a city’s ability to influence its adjoining areas is the essential function of its existence and that the innovation and sustainability are commonly agreed factors that will lead to the cities’ success. Then this paper further discusses how China can learn from other countries’ experiences and lessons to better plan its future urban development.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper offers a response to the question: what is futures studies (FS)? What do I consider to be the most coherent and useful definition of FS?
Book
Full-text available
International negotiation is a statecraft that leaders and practitioners must integrate various methods to achieve the ultimate goal, which is national interests. However, to make the most of the negotiation, negotiators must be able to analyse the phenomenon that might happen in the future. This will help create a successful negotiation. Scenario thinking is a tool to help analyse the possibility of the phenomenon. It requires many processes, information, knowledge, collaboration, and actors (human and institution) to help analyse the possibility. This study paper aims to propose the scenario method thinking to help practitioners to think strategically. Scenarios are part of the decision-making process which help support international negotiation.
Article
Full-text available
The onset of the pandemic introduced unprecedented uncertainties, promptingschool leaders to urgently take decisive actions to ensure the resilience of highereducation institutions. The institution under review had no choice but tonavigate unfamiliar challenges brought by uncertainties to ensure the smoothtransition of its instructional responsibilities. Planning in such uncertain timesproved challenging, as the unprecedented nature of the situation made itdifficult to draw insights from the past (Knight, 1921, 2009). In the contextof this framework, scenario planning, an integral aspect of strategic planningemphasizing tools and technologies to navigate future uncertainties, has emergedas a strategically sound approach (Chermack, Lynham, & Ruona, 2001). Thisstudy describes the central role of scenario planning in shaping the strategicdirection of a university in response to the ambiguous challenges presented byCOVID-19. The process involved applying Heidrick & Struggles’ ScenarioModel, as detailed by Barnakova, Snyder, & Skoritowski (2020). Four ‘whatif ’ scenarios were thoughtfully formulated, that were set in the backdrop ofeconomic recovery and social trust. Each scenario was assigned to a team, taskedwith developing a playbook outlining potential future developments. Strategieswere then formulated for each ‘what if ’ scenario, detailing the institution’sresponse. This article presents a thorough overview of the institution’s proactivescenario planning endeavors aimed at navigating the uncertainties introducedby the pandemic within the education sector and society. The narrative unfoldsthe entire process, spanning from scenario generation to the formulation ofstrategies. Building upon the strategies crafted within the four scenarios, thearticle distinguished the identification of goals, strategic priorities, and outcomemeasures. These pivotal components now form the bedrock of the institution’sstrategic plan for the next three years. (PDF) Weathering the Pandemic: The 'What If ' Experience in Scenario Planning. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/381574281_Weathering_the_Pandemic_The_%27What_If_%27_Experience_in_Scenario_Planning [accessed Dec 06 2024].
Chapter
Full-text available
Tasarım sürecinde kısa dönemde bugünün ihtiyacına ce vap aramak kadar, yakın, orta ve uzun dönemde yarının değişen bağlamını bilimsel veriye dayanarak öngörmeye ve farklı gelecek senaryolarına göre çözüm üretmeye duyulan ihtiyaç artmaktadır. Özellikle iklim kriziyle birlikte, çözülmesi güç “geleceğin kötücül problemleri” karşısında tasarım düşüncesini harekete geçirme fikri önem kazanmıştır. Buradan yola çıkarak, günümüzün şartlarını iyileştirmenin yanı sıra, yarının şartlarına göre çok yönlü düşünme pratiğini geliştirebilmek ve farklı senaryolara göre geleceği tartışmaya açmak önemli bir adım olarak değerlendirilebilir. Bu tespit ve ihtiyaçlardan yola çıkarak, makalede geleceğin kentsel mekânlarının kurgulanmasını destekleyecek yöntem ve araçlar tartışılmaktadır. Modern dönemden başlayarak günümüze kadar, kentsel sistem, bağlam ve mekân algısı tartışmaya açılarak, mevcut örnekler üzerinden senaryolaştırma yönteminin tasarım sürecine nasıl eklenebileceği incelenmiştir.
Article
Full-text available
Dealing with Uncertainties and Unknowns of Tehran’s Growth Boundary Planning by Participative Foresighting Abstract Background and Objectives Low robustness and the appropriateness loss of spatial development plans facing chaotic and unpredictable conditions emerging from unrecognized uncertainties and unknowns in positivism approaches, has necessitated rethinking about epistemological concepts and fuzzy alternative methods. In the existing legal regulations, the 1200 square kilometers Tehran’s growth boundary, with all the complexities and similarities that it has to a multi-nodal urban area, is considered the same as other cities whose social, economic and political relations are much simpler. To meet this challenge, a broader concept of capital growth area of 6000 square kilometers has been introduced in the planning discourse of this metropolitan area, which has not been realized so far for various reasons, but the preparation of its’ plan is on the local authority’s agenda. Accordingly, the present article has tried in a new way and with the intention of imaging the plausible futures ahead to present multiple future narratives and scenarios regarding geopolitical condition, technological progress, divisiveness and managerial and institutional conflict as different types of uncertainties. Methods In identifying the driving forces affecting the future of the capital's growth boundary, in-depth interview of 13 institutional actors and the main expert of Tehran has been used. In this regard, using the method of structural analysis or Cross Impact balanced analysis, the drivers identified by the main actors were classified based on the two factors; importance and uncertainty. MicMAC software is used to determine the degree of influence and importance, or in other words to determine the most effective variables. In this method, it is possible to explain the internal relationships between the elements using the matrix and the opinions of the participants and the experiences of different specialists and finally determine the key variables or, in other words, the key uncertainties. Then, the alternative scenarios of each were determined in the future workshop and entered into the scenario wizard software. Several compatible scenarios were then selected. Finally, among them, three optimistic, middle and disaster scenarios were narrated. Findings One of the most important uncertainties facing the capital's growth boundaries’ planning is institutional-legal one. The identified cases include: the effectiveness of existing laws in dealing with the issue of boundary, accountability and transparency of trustee institutions, political determination and will to form the management of the metropolitan area in boundary, determining the legal obligation regarding the share of regional settlements from financial resources, legal and official definition of growth boundary, inter-organizational relations cooperation and coordination, the role and scope of duties and mission of the General Department of growth boundary in the management of developments, provision of the financial resources needed, territorial-functional harmony and alignment of decision-making and taking procedures. As a result, three scenarios was imaged; Optimistic scenario, pessimistic scenario and probable scenario. Paying attention to these scenarios in the process of Tehran’s growth boundary decision-making and decision-taking will lead to more resilient and robust plans and strategies. Conclusion Finally, to increase the robustness of the Tehran’s growth boundary plan against the selected compatible scenario, the following strategic suggestions were presented; - Creating legal support by redefining the law on definitions of limit zone and growth boundaries and excluding the metropolitan area of Tehran from the inclusion of Notes 1 and 4 of Article 3 of the Law on Definitions of Boundaries and Privacy in accordance with the executive regulations on definitions of boundaries and growth boundary (removing the legal discrepancy from the definition of the capital's growth boundary); - Creating an integrated organization for the management of the capital urban growth boundary; coordination and cooperation and participation of all organizations and institutions in the form of integrated management with maximum adherence to the principles of the plan; - Improving the role and position of the mayor of Tehran as the executive director of the metropolitan area of Tehran with the supervision of the integrated organization on the realization of the integrated space development plan of growth boundary; - The definition of common growth boundary region based on the criteria of functional connectedness and the need to manage the growth boundaries of the cities located in the region based on the plan and requirements of the upstream documents. - Defining a sustainable revenue model by considering and guaranteeing the proportional share and rights of all the cities located in region. - Agreement on prDealing with Uncertainties and Unknowns of Tehran’s Growth Boundary Planning by Participative Foresighting Abstract Background and Objectives Low robustness and the appropriateness loss of spatial development plans facing chaotic and unpredictable conditions emerging from unrecognized uncertainties and unknowns in positivism approaches, has necessitated rethinking about epistemological concepts and fuzzy alternative methods. In the existing legal regulations, the 1200 square kilometers Tehran’s growth boundary, with all the complexities and similarities that it has to a multi-nodal urban area, is considered the same as other cities whose social, economic and political relations are much simpler. To meet this challenge, a broader concept of capital growth area of 6000 square kilometers has been introduced in the planning discourse of this metropolitan area, which has not been realized so far for various reasons, but the preparation of its’ plan is on the local authority’s agenda. Accordingly, the present article has tried in a new way and with the intention of imaging the plausible futures ahead to present multiple future narratives and scenarios regarding geopolitical condition, technological progress, divisiveness and managerial and institutional conflict as different types of uncertainties. Methods In identifying the driving forces affecting the future of the capital's growth boundary, in-depth interview of 13 institutional actors and the main expert of Tehran has been used. In this regard, using the method of structural analysis or Cross Impact balanced analysis, the drivers identified by the main actors were classified based on the two factors; importance and uncertainty. MicMAC software is used to determine the degree of influence and importance, or in other words to determine the most effective variables. In this method, it is possible to explain the internal relationships between the elements using the matrix and the opinions of the participants and the experiences of different specialists and finally determine the key variables or, in other words, the key uncertainties. Then, the alternative scenarios of each were determined in the future workshop and entered into the scenario wizard software. Several compatible scenarios were then selected. Finally, among them, three optimistic, middle and disaster scenarios were narrated. Findings One of the most important uncertainties facing the capital's growth boundaries’ planning is institutional-legal one. The identified cases include: the effectiveness of existing laws in dealing with the issue of boundary, accountability and transparency of trustee institutions, political determination and will to form the management of the metropolitan area in boundary, determining the legal obligation regarding the share of regional settlements from financial resources, legal and official definition of growth boundary, inter-organizational relations cooperation and coordination, the role and scope of duties and mission of the General Department of growth boundary in the management of developments, provision of the financial resources needed, territorial-functional harmony and alignment of decision-making and taking procedures. As a result, three scenarios was imaged; Optimistic scenario, pessimistic scenario and probable scenario. Paying attention to these scenarios in the process of Tehran’s growth boundary decision-making and decision-taking will lead to more resilient and robust plans and strategies. Conclusion Finally, to increase the robustness of the Tehran’s growth boundary plan against the selected compatible scenario, the following strategic suggestions were presented; - Creating legal support by redefining the law on definitions of limit zone and growth boundaries and excluding the metropolitan area of Tehran from the inclusion of Notes 1 and 4 of Article 3 of the Law on Definitions of Boundaries and Privacy in accordance with the executive regulations on definitions of boundaries and growth boundary (removing the legal discrepancy from the definition of the capital's growth boundary); - Creating an integrated organization for the management of the capital urban growth boundary; coordination and cooperation and participation of all organizations and institutions in the form of integrated management with maximum adherence to the principles of the plan; - Improving the role and position of the mayor of Tehran as the executive director of the metropolitan area of Tehran with the supervision of the integrated organization on the realization of the integrated space development plan of growth boundary; - The definition of common growth boundary region based on the criteria of functional connectedness and the need to manage the growth boundaries of the cities located in the region based on the plan and requirements of the upstream documents. - Defining a sustainable revenue model by considering and guaranteeing the proportional share and rights of all the cities located in region. - Agreement on prioritizing issues in the form of a joint document. Keywords: Uncertainties, Foresighting, Scenario writing, Actor Mind Mining, 6000 Km2 Urban Growth Boundary of the Capital. ioritizing issues in the form of a joint document. Keywords: Uncertainties, Foresighting, Scenario writing, Actor Mind Mining, 6000 Km2 Urban Growth Boundary of the Capital.
Article
Full-text available
El entorno universitario sufre constantes transformaciones, lo que incrementa enormemente la complejidad e incertidumbre que deben procesar las universidades alrededor del mundo y, en particular, en América Latina. Este ensayo propone un modelo teórico-metodológico para el uso del pensamiento de escenarios como estrategia en el análisis institucional universitario orientado a la generación de evidencia para la toma de decisiones en contextos de alta incertidumbre. Se comienza exponiendo las características de la universidad latinoamericana y su entorno, se continúa con una discusión sobre la naturaleza del entorno organizacional y el aporte de los escenarios a su observación. Finalmente, se presentan lineamientos para su aplicación referentes a tres dimensiones: (1) fuentes de evidencia y gestión del no-conocimiento, (2) características estructurales del entorno universitario y (3) procedimientos metodológicos sobre los que se debe basar la construcción de estos escenarios.
Chapter
Full-text available
Zusammenfassung Landnutzungsentscheidungen werden unter anderem auf Grund der Knappheit der Landfläche bzw. der Knappheit des Bodens und der vom Boden zur Verfügung gestellten Leistungen (z. B. bereitstellende, regulierende und kulturelle Ökosystemleistungen; Box 1.2 Abschn. 3.5) getroffen. Bei vielen Entscheidungen können nicht alle Nutzungsansprüche erfüllt werden. Die Entscheidungen werden individuell (z. B. durch Wahl des Wohnstandorts) und kollektiv (z.B. Ressourcen-, Energie- und Infrastrukturpolitik) getroffen. Auch die Unterlassung flächensparender oder klimafreundlicher Entscheidungen und das Dulden umweltkontraproduktiver Subventionen können die Landnutzung beeinflussen.
Article
Subway station fires frequently result in massive casualties, economic losses and even social panic due to the massive passenger flow, semiconfined space and limited conditions for escape and smoke emissions. The combination of different states of fire hazard factors increases the uncertainty and complexity of the evolution path of subway station fires and causes difficulty in assessing fire risk. Traditional methods cannot describe the development process of subway station fires, and thus, cannot assess fire risk under different fire scenarios. To realise scenario-based fire risk assessment, the elements that correspond to each scenario state during fire development in subway stations are identified in this study to explore the intrinsic driving force of fire evolution. Accordingly, a fire scenario evolution model of subway stations is constructed. Then, a Bayesian network is adopted to construct a scenario evolution probability calculation model for calculating the occurrence probability of each scenario state during subway station fire development and identifying critical scenario elements that promote fire evolution. Xi’an subway station system is used as a case to illustrate the application of Bayesian network-based scenario evolution model, providing a practical management tool for fire safety managers. The method adopted in this study enables managers to predict fire risk in each scenario and understand the evolution path of subway station fire, supporting the establishment of fire response strategies based on “scenario–response” planning.
Article
The article shows the importance of strengthening the socio-economic security of the city, which constitutes the content of a new activity for the city government - security activities. The security activity of the city government is an object of management, and therefore it should be carried out within the limits of a certain approach to management, which should correspond to the greatest extent to its characteristic features. The expediency of using the scenario approach to strengthening the socio-economic security of the city is proved, the advantages and limitations of its use are shown. The scenario approach is a set of methods, techniques, operations and actions that reflect the philosophy of research directions of the process of strengthening the socio-economic security of the city, combined into an instrumental base of the approach based on the understanding of this process and the use of a special conceptual and categorical apparatus. The use of a scenario approach to strengthening the socio-economic security of the city is based on a set of principles, among which the principle of profile orientation is new, according to which the development of scenarios for strengthening the socio-economic security of the city should be based on the profile of the city. The operationalization of the principle of profile orientation in strengthening the socio-economic security of the city led to the definition of city profiles, which are divided into positive and negative. The purpose of the city profile is to develop proposals for strengthening the socio-economic security of the city, with further clarification and specification ("binding") for a specific city. The profile of the city has not only analytical, but also image value, and therefore should be communicated to the target audience of all elements of the socio-economic system "city".
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.