Dealing with Uncertainties and Unknowns of Tehran’s Growth Boundary Planning by Participative Foresighting
Abstract
Background and Objectives
Low robustness and the appropriateness loss of spatial development plans facing chaotic and unpredictable conditions emerging from unrecognized uncertainties and unknowns in positivism approaches, has necessitated rethinking about epistemological concepts and fuzzy alternative methods. In the existing legal regulations, the 1200 square kilometers Tehran’s growth boundary, with all the complexities and similarities that it has to a multi-nodal urban area, is considered the same as other cities whose social, economic and political relations are much simpler. To meet this challenge, a broader concept of capital growth area of 6000 square kilometers has been introduced in the planning discourse of this metropolitan area, which has not been realized so far for various reasons, but the preparation of its’ plan is on the local authority’s agenda. Accordingly, the present article has tried in a new way and with the intention of imaging the plausible futures ahead to present multiple future narratives and scenarios regarding geopolitical condition, technological progress, divisiveness and managerial and institutional conflict as different types of uncertainties.
Methods
In identifying the driving forces affecting the future of the capital's growth boundary, in-depth interview of 13 institutional actors and the main expert of Tehran has been used. In this regard, using the method of structural analysis or Cross Impact balanced analysis, the drivers identified by the main actors were classified based on the two factors; importance and uncertainty. MicMAC software is used to determine the degree of influence and importance, or in other words to determine the most effective variables. In this method, it is possible to explain the internal relationships between the elements using the matrix and the opinions of the participants and the experiences of different specialists and finally determine the key variables or, in other words, the key uncertainties. Then, the alternative scenarios of each were determined in the future workshop and entered into the scenario wizard software. Several compatible scenarios were then selected. Finally, among them, three optimistic, middle and disaster scenarios were narrated.
Findings
One of the most important uncertainties facing the capital's growth boundaries’ planning is institutional-legal one. The identified cases include: the effectiveness of existing laws in dealing with the issue of boundary, accountability and transparency of trustee institutions, political determination and will to form the management of the metropolitan area in boundary, determining the legal obligation regarding the share of regional settlements from financial resources, legal and official definition of growth boundary, inter-organizational relations cooperation and coordination,
the role and scope of duties and mission of the General Department of growth boundary in the management of developments, provision of the financial resources needed, territorial-functional harmony and alignment of decision-making and taking procedures.
As a result, three scenarios was imaged; Optimistic scenario, pessimistic scenario and probable scenario. Paying attention to these scenarios in the process of Tehran’s growth boundary decision-making and decision-taking will lead to more resilient and robust plans and strategies.
Conclusion
Finally, to increase the robustness of the Tehran’s growth boundary plan against the selected compatible scenario, the following strategic suggestions were presented;
- Creating legal support by redefining the law on definitions of limit zone and growth boundaries and excluding the metropolitan area of Tehran from the inclusion of Notes 1 and 4 of Article 3 of the Law on Definitions of Boundaries and Privacy in accordance with the executive regulations on definitions of boundaries and growth boundary (removing the legal discrepancy from the definition of the capital's growth boundary);
- Creating an integrated organization for the management of the capital urban growth boundary; coordination and cooperation and participation of all organizations and institutions in the form of integrated management with maximum adherence to the principles of the plan;
- Improving the role and position of the mayor of Tehran as the executive director of the metropolitan area of Tehran with the supervision of the integrated organization on the realization of the integrated space development plan of growth boundary;
- The definition of common growth boundary region based on the criteria of functional connectedness and the need to manage the growth boundaries of the cities located in the region based on the plan and requirements of the upstream documents.
- Defining a sustainable revenue model by considering and guaranteeing the proportional share and rights of all the cities located in region.
- Agreement on prDealing with Uncertainties and Unknowns of Tehran’s Growth Boundary Planning by Participative Foresighting
Abstract
Background and Objectives
Low robustness and the appropriateness loss of spatial development plans facing chaotic and unpredictable conditions emerging from unrecognized uncertainties and unknowns in positivism approaches, has necessitated rethinking about epistemological concepts and fuzzy alternative methods. In the existing legal regulations, the 1200 square kilometers Tehran’s growth boundary, with all the complexities and similarities that it has to a multi-nodal urban area, is considered the same as other cities whose social, economic and political relations are much simpler. To meet this challenge, a broader concept of capital growth area of 6000 square kilometers has been introduced in the planning discourse of this metropolitan area, which has not been realized so far for various reasons, but the preparation of its’ plan is on the local authority’s agenda. Accordingly, the present article has tried in a new way and with the intention of imaging the plausible futures ahead to present multiple future narratives and scenarios regarding geopolitical condition, technological progress, divisiveness and managerial and institutional conflict as different types of uncertainties.
Methods
In identifying the driving forces affecting the future of the capital's growth boundary, in-depth interview of 13 institutional actors and the main expert of Tehran has been used. In this regard, using the method of structural analysis or Cross Impact balanced analysis, the drivers identified by the main actors were classified based on the two factors; importance and uncertainty. MicMAC software is used to determine the degree of influence and importance, or in other words to determine the most effective variables. In this method, it is possible to explain the internal relationships between the elements using the matrix and the opinions of the participants and the experiences of different specialists and finally determine the key variables or, in other words, the key uncertainties. Then, the alternative scenarios of each were determined in the future workshop and entered into the scenario wizard software. Several compatible scenarios were then selected. Finally, among them, three optimistic, middle and disaster scenarios were narrated.
Findings
One of the most important uncertainties facing the capital's growth boundaries’ planning is institutional-legal one. The identified cases include: the effectiveness of existing laws in dealing with the issue of boundary, accountability and transparency of trustee institutions, political determination and will to form the management of the metropolitan area in boundary, determining the legal obligation regarding the share of regional settlements from financial resources, legal and official definition of growth boundary, inter-organizational relations cooperation and coordination,
the role and scope of duties and mission of the General Department of growth boundary in the management of developments, provision of the financial resources needed, territorial-functional harmony and alignment of decision-making and taking procedures.
As a result, three scenarios was imaged; Optimistic scenario, pessimistic scenario and probable scenario. Paying attention to these scenarios in the process of Tehran’s growth boundary decision-making and decision-taking will lead to more resilient and robust plans and strategies.
Conclusion
Finally, to increase the robustness of the Tehran’s growth boundary plan against the selected compatible scenario, the following strategic suggestions were presented;
- Creating legal support by redefining the law on definitions of limit zone and growth boundaries and excluding the metropolitan area of Tehran from the inclusion of Notes 1 and 4 of Article 3 of the Law on Definitions of Boundaries and Privacy in accordance with the executive regulations on definitions of boundaries and growth boundary (removing the legal discrepancy from the definition of the capital's growth boundary);
- Creating an integrated organization for the management of the capital urban growth boundary; coordination and cooperation and participation of all organizations and institutions in the form of integrated management with maximum adherence to the principles of the plan;
- Improving the role and position of the mayor of Tehran as the executive director of the metropolitan area of Tehran with the supervision of the integrated organization on the realization of the integrated space development plan of growth boundary;
- The definition of common growth boundary region based on the criteria of functional connectedness and the need to manage the growth boundaries of the cities located in the region based on the plan and requirements of the upstream documents.
- Defining a sustainable revenue model by considering and guaranteeing the proportional share and rights of all the cities located in region.
- Agreement on prioritizing issues in the form of a joint document.
Keywords:
Uncertainties, Foresighting, Scenario writing, Actor Mind Mining, 6000 Km2 Urban Growth Boundary of the Capital.
ioritizing issues in the form of a joint document.
Keywords:
Uncertainties, Foresighting, Scenario writing, Actor Mind Mining, 6000 Km2 Urban Growth Boundary of the Capital.