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Studying the PEV market in california: Comparing the PEV, PHEV and hybrid markets
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Who is buying electric vehicles? Who is buying new cars in general? Is the first group a subset of the second? What are the similarities and differences of the two groups? Can we use hybrid buyers to predict the future plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market? This study explores the characteristics of new car buyer households who purchased a new vehicle in California during 2011-2012 comparing three main populations: internal combustion engine (ICE) buyers, hybrid buyers and PEV buyers. We show that PEV households have different socio-demographic characteristics than ICE buyers with, for example, higher income, higher education, and more new cars while hybrid owners are a middle group with characteristics that fall between those of ICE and PEV owners. We also found differences among PEV buyers. Pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) households have similar socio-demographic characteristics but they are differentiated by driving characteristics and home location. The PEV market today is based on small number of buyers and small number of potential new car buyers. Targeting the potential car buyers can more rapidly increase the market, create a used market and will open PEV options to larger segments of the population.
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... Past studies have shown that early adopters of EVs are environmentally conscious, and technology-oriented (Wang et al., 2020;Wolf & Seebauer, 2014). Early adopters of EVs had a higher level of education (Hidrue et al., 2011;Li et al., 2017), were younger (Hidrue et al., 2011), are more likely to be male (Plötz et al., 2014), more likely to own hybrid vehicles and more likely to own multiple cars (Tal & Nicholas, 2013). One research question is whether these early adopter traits are specific to the countries in which the studies were conducted, or more universally applicable across countries. ...
... For example, the driving range increased from the initial 335 km (in 2014) to 539 km (in 2019) in the Tesla S model, and the number of charging stations in the United States also increased from 1,000 to about 20,000 in 2019. Among previous studies that examined actual users, one study compared the characteristics of ICEV owners and EV owners (Tal & Nicholas, 2013), and another compared the characteristics of high-end and low-end EV owners (Hardman et al., 2016). A study in China surveyed 300 owners of Tesla, Beiqi, Byd, and Jianghuai EVs in Beijing, but the study is limited to usage behavior. ...
This is a viewpoint paper that compares the psychological and behavioral characteristics of electric vehicle (EV) owners in the US and China. EV is viewed as the dominant next wave of automotive technology and this research is a cross‐cultural study of the two most important automotive markets in the world. In particular, this study surveyed actual EV users in US and China, and compared their psychological and behavioral characteristics. The study also shows that motivation for EV usage, reasons for purchase, and satisfaction are different across the two countries. US owners showed higher propensity to innovate and greater knowledge of EVs than Chinese owners. Even though there was no difference between the two groups in terms of environmental concern, Chinese owners cited reputation and signaling social responsibility as being important considerations in their purchase of an EV, while US owners cited technological innovativeness, driving pleasure and lower maintenance cost. Satisfaction with EV ownership was affected by economic benefit and environmental concern in China and innovation in the US. This study shows how culture and stage of motorization are reflected in consumer behavior and satisfaction regarding EVs. EV manufacturers need to be aware of these differences when targeting the two markets.
... This "Pioneers" vs. "Mainstream" framing has been used by several studies assessing pro-environmental technology market segmentation, primarily in the zero-emission vehicle and rooftop solar research fields (Axsen and Kurani, 2013;Tal and Nicholas, 2013;Axsen et al., 2016;Palm, 2020). No study to date has used this framing for assessing how heat pump owner Pioneers differ from households that are willing to purchase a heat pump (Potential Early Mainstream) or households not willing to purchase a heat pump (Late Mainstream). ...
... Our relatively small sample size of Pioneers (n = 73) may have prevented the discovery of other socio-demographic variables that significantly differ with PEM and LM groups. Research comparing Pioneers with Potential Early and Late Mainstream buyers for other pro-environmental technologies has found for example, that Pioneers tend to have the higher incomes and education levels than other groups (Tal and Nicholas, 2013;Plötz et al., 2014). We found no such difference here, but a larger sample size is needed to validate our results. ...
Electric air source heat pumps (ASHPs) appear to be a key technology for decarbonizing space heating in existing residential buildings, yet their current market share in much of North America remains low. To explore how the potential future ASHP market may differ from the present one, we use a subset of data from the Canadian Home Heating Survey ( n = 461) to provide a comprehensive characterization of three market segments of British Columbian homeowners: Pioneers (heat pump owners), Potential Early Mainstream buyers (homeowners currently willing to purchase an ASHP), and Late Mainstream buyers (homeowners currently unwilling to purchase an ASHP). We assess variable associations with market segments according to the Attitude-Behavior-Context theory, which posits that pro-environmental behavior is shaped by attitudinal, contextual, and socio-demographic factors. We also compare how market segmentation changes before and after respondents receive technical information on different home heating systems. Relative to Pioneers and the Potential Early Mainstream (PEM), we find that the Late Mainstream (LM) are generally lower income, lower educated, less environmentally- and technologically-oriented in their lifestyles, less open to change, less familiar with heat pumps and home energy efficiency, more negative in their perceptions about heat pumps, and less aware and supportive of policies aimed at reducing residential emissions. We also find that after respondents read technical information about home heating systems, approximately 10% of heat pump non-owners shift from the LM to the PEM; however, within the PEM, there is little growth in high willingness to adopt.
... However, their availability is significantly limited due to, inter alia, their price [80]. The second class is hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), also known as full hybrids, which are powered by internal combustion engines and batteries [81]. A subclass of HEVs is plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which are also hybrids, but with batteries that can be charged from an external source, i.e., via a charger. ...
The main purpose of this article was to determine the impact on the equilibrium of the local transport system from privileging EVs by permitting them to use bus lanes. The study used two sets of data: information on infrastructure and traffic management; and information on the recorded road network loads and traffic volumes generated by a given shopping centre—the E. Leclerc shopping centre (an important traffic generator within the city of Łódź, Poland). These sets were then used to develop a microsimulation traffic model for the shopping centre and the associated effects on the localised transport system. The model was constructed by means of the PTV Vissim software tool. An initial simulation was conducted that formed a basis for subsequent scenarios (in total, 17 simulations were performed). On the basis of the conducted analyses, it was established that—for the researched part of the transport system—privileging the still rather uncommon battery electric vehicles (BEVs) engendered a marginal deterioration of traffic conditions. At the same time, allowing BEVs to use bus lanes within the chosen research area had no negative impact on bus journey times.
... With the 2012 introduction of the Tesla Model S, the international EV consumer market is believed to have shifted toward higher-income households (Hardman et al., 2016). In fact, most recent studies have concluded that EV owners tend to earn more than non-EV owners as well as the general public (Langbroek et al., 2017;Tal & Nicholas, 2013). By modeling California household survey data with validation data from the Delaware Valley region, Javid and Nejat (2017) found an increase in annual household income significantly predicted the likelihood to adopt an EV rather than a convention ICE vehicle. ...
In Massachusetts and beyond, ambitious long-term initiatives seek to curtail increases in carbon pollution that contribute to climate change and carry detrimental impacts to population health and safety. Widespread electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet is celebrated as a fundamental strategy for achieving substantial long-term transportation-related greenhouse gas reductions. Unfortunately, in spite of this understood need, the number of EVs on our roadways remains relatively insignificant and the evidence base remains limited in its ability to inform decisionmakers as to what set of factors related to an individual, their surrounding context, or the new technology itself will contribute most to increasing passenger EV adoption. This study utilizes a unique data set enumerating passenger vehicle purchases and utilization in Massachusetts from 2008 to 2016 to (i) describe geographic and temporal patterns of EV adoption and (ii) identify the environmental factors that have predicted the purchase and utilization of EVs by these early adopters. Our study finds that early EV adoption in Massachusetts has largely been an urban phenomenon displaying a gradual and incremental increase in the consumer market share. At a neighborhood scale, early EV adoption in Massachusetts has been limited primarily to higher-income households residing in single-family homes. However, if policy actions follow, the significant association of public charging stations with EV adoption and other informative study findings can carry the potential to direct investments and incentives to ensure the Commonwealth's lofty legislatively-mandated targets are met in coming years.
... Perhaps this adds more nuanced/layered ways of thinking about demographics. For example, demographics might be considered both: (1) in a conceptually nested way, as helping to explain "interest"type concepts, which in turn more directly explain purchase consideration, and (2) in an actionable way, as widely available to help target those consumers who might be most ripe for "conversion" among the larger body of mainstream consumers. ...
[Note: open-source download available at DOI link.]
To expand markets for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) beyond enthusiastic early adopters, investments must be strategic. This research characterizes a segment of EV adoption that points the way toward the mainstream: EV consumers with low or no initial interest in EVs, or “EV Converts.” Logistic regression is utilized to profile EV Convert demographic, household, and regional characteristics; vehicle-transaction details; and purchase motivations—based on 2016–2017 survey data characterizing 5447 rebated California EV consumers. Explanatory factors are rank-ordered—separately for battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), to inform targeted outreach and incentive design. EV Converts tend to have relatively “lower” values on factors that might have otherwise “pre-converted” them to EV interest: hours researching EVs online; motivation from environmental impacts and carpool-lane access; and solar ownership. PHEV Converts more closely resemble new-car buyers than other EV adopters, and BEV Converts actually tend to be younger and less-frequently white/Caucasian than new-car buyers. BEV Converts also tend to: lack workplace charging, be moderately motivated by energy independence, and reside in Southern California or the Central Valley. Predictors that not only help target consumers, but also help convert them, include rebates for BEV consumers and, modestly, fuel-cost savings for PHEV consumers.
... Nearly, 47% of the respondents who showed their interest in buying HFCV in the next two years were female compared with 35% of the respondents with no i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 6 ( 2 0 2 1 ) 1 0 5 8 9 e1 0 6 0 7 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 6 ( 2 0 2 1 ) 1 0 5 8 9 e1 0 6 0 7 interest in HFCVs who were female. This can correlate with previous studies on AFVs, concluding that more women are making the switch to cleaner fuel vehicles [94]. This aspect of female respondents is partially supported by previous studies, which have shown that women hold more proenvironmental and pro-sustainability values, can adapt to new technology faster, and prefer fuel-efficient cars [95e99]. ...
With the inauguration of the world's largest green hydrogen facility, the Government of Japan is steadily advancing towards its goal of transforming into a hydrogen-based society, but the lack of interest in adopting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) among consumers is noticeable. This study examines the socioeconomic profiles of 500 potential car buyers with and without interest in HFCVs. The results show that the potential early adopters of HFCVs exhibit similar trends of sex, employment status, number of people in the households, weekly distance traveled, and frequency of using expressways that influence their decision. They have a significant variance in income, previous battery electric vehicle (BEV) experiences, and knowledge of HFCVs. The results suggest that knowledge of HFCVs and related technologies, and previous experience in driving BEVs encourage respondents to purchase HFCVs. The study suggests that the greater awareness of HFCV can assist policymakers in the successful market adoption.
Many rapidly developing countries around the world are at a crossroads when it comes to transportation, air quality, and sustainability. Indeed, the challenges presented by vehicular growth in India have motivated the search for sustainable transportation solutions. One solution constitutes ridehailing services, which are expected to reduce car ownership and provide affordable means of transportation. Another key solution is the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), which are expected to reduce greenhouse gas emission and address the growing demand for sustainable urban mobility. Using a unique survey data set collected in 2018 from a sample of 43,000 respondents spread across 20 cities in India, this paper attempts to shed light on the factors that affect adoption of on-demand transportation services and EVs in India. In particular, not only does this paper consider the socio-economic and demographic variables that affect these behavioral choices, but the modeling framework adopted in this study places a special emphasis on representing the important role played by attitudes, values, and perceptions in determining adoption of on-demand transportation services and EVs. It is observed that attitudes and values significantly affect the use of on-demand transportation services and EV ownership, suggesting that information campaigns and free trials/demonstrations would help advance the adoption of sustainable transportation modes. The model results help in the identification of policy options and infrastructure investments that can advance a sustainable transportation future in India.
The optimal deployment of public charging infrastructure is critical to the popularisation of electric vehicles (EVs) in high-density cities. Existing studies on public EV charging facilities have rarely integrated government policy and spatial constraints into their optimisation algorithms. To address this research gap, we proposed a contextualised EV charger optimisation model that incorporates carefully derived supply-and-demand constraints and tested it in the case of Hong Kong. From the supply side, we studied the latest planning guidelines and conducted a spatial analysis of potential charging sites. From the demand side, we conducted a questionnaire survey with local residents, estimated their EV purchase intention using a generalised ordered probit model, and then projected the usage demand for public chargers. These supply-and-demand constraints were subsequently incorporated into a location-allocation model to minimise both charging demand shortfall and travel time to charging facilities. We also conducted sensitivity analyses with varying budget, charging demand and facility service radius. Based on our results, we made several key recommendations regarding the spatial planning of public EV charging facilities in our high-density context: (1) the existing charging network should be substantially expanded to meet the projected demand; (2) the charging network should be expanded beyond the central business district and the urban core into other urban neighbourhoods and suburbs; and (3) installing more chargers at existing charging stations is more economical than building new stations. Our research provides an important reference for the spatial planning and deployment strategies for public EV charging infrastructure in high-density cities.
There has been a continuous effort to quantify the expected greenhouse gas reductions from plug- in electric vehicles (PEVs). Most existing studies are based on standardized driving cycles to compare the performance of PEVs and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This study is based on assigning the most efficient plug-in hybrid or full electric vehicle to a household based on the household travel behavior as collected by GPS tracking data of thousands of vehicles’ real trips in California, and it found that PEV adoption can reduce greenhouse gas emission by up to 65%. We further explore the market share difference in assigning optimal vehicle models by considering vehicle-based and household-based travel demand, and we found that, given currently available technology, in many cases adoption of Plug-in Hybrid Electric vehicles (PHEVs) will not necessarily result in significantly higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (2.8% higher) compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), while PHEVs have advantages to satisfy household’s long-distance travel demand. However, if PHEV drivers never charge their vehicles, the achievable GHG emission reduction will be decreased by nearly 2/3.
Previous research has shown that electric vehicle (EV) users could behave differently compared to internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) drivers due to their consciousness or practices of eco-driving, but very limited research has fully investigated this assumption. This research explores this topic through investigating EV drivers’ eco-driving behaviors and motivations. We first conducted a questionnaire survey on EV drivers’ driving behavior and some hypothetical decisions of their driving. It indicates various characteristics between EV and ICEV commuters, including self-reported daily driving habits, preferences of route choices, tradeoff between travel time and energy saving, and adoption of in-vehicle display (IVD) technologies. Then, through statistical analysis with Fisher’s exact test and Mann-Whitney U test, this research reveals that, compared to ICEV drivers, EV drivers possess significantly calmer driving maneuvers and more fuel-efficient driving habits such as trip chaining. The survey data also show that EV drivers are much more willing to save energy in compensation of travel time. Furthermore, the survey data indicate that EV drivers are more willing to adopt eco-friendly IVD technologies. All these findings are expected to improve the understanding of some unique behavior found in EV drivers.
We use a survey to compare consumers’ stated interest in conventional gasoline (CV), hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and pure electric vehicles (EV) of varying designs and prices. Data are from 508 households representing new vehicle buyers in San Diego County, California in 2011. The mixed-mode survey collected information about access to residential recharge infrastructure, three days of driving patterns, and desired vehicle designs and motivations via design games. Across the higher and lower price scenarios, a majority of consumers designed and selected some form of PHEV for their next new vehicle, smaller numbers designed an HEV or a conventional vehicle, and only a few percent designed an EV. Of those who did not design an EV, the most frequent concerns with EVs were limited range, charger availability, and higher vehicle purchase prices. Positive interest in HEVs, PHEVs and EVs was associated with vehicle images of intelligence, responsibility, and support of the environment and nation (United States). The distribution of vehicle designs suggests that cheaper, smaller battery PHEVs may achieve more short-term market success than larger battery PHEVs or EV. New car buyers’ present interests align with less expensive first steps in a transition to electric-drive vehicles.
GPS data for a year's worth of travel by 255 Seattle households illuminate how plug-in electric vehicles can match household needs. The results suggest that a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) with 100mi of range should meet the needs of 50% of one-vehicle households and 80% of multiple-vehicle households, when charging once a day and relying on another vehicle or mode just 4 days a year. Moreover, the average one-vehicle Seattle household uses each vehicle 23mi per day and should be able to electrify close to 80% of its miles, while meeting all its travel needs, using a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with 40-mile all-electric range. Households owning two or more vehicles can electrify 50 to 70% of their total household miles using a PHEV40, depending on how they assign the vehicle across drivers each day. Cost comparisons between the average single-vehicle household owning a Chevrolet Cruze versus a Volt PHEV suggest that, when gas prices are $3.50 per gallon and electricity rates are at 11.2ct/kWh, the Volt will save the household $535 per year in operating costs. Similarly, the Toyota Prius PHEV will provide an annual savings of $538 per year over the Corolla.
One way to progress toward greenhouse gas reductions is for people to drive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Households in this study participated in a 4- to 6-week PHEV driving trial. A narrative of each household’s encounter with the PHEV was constructed by the researchers from multiple in-home interviews, questionnaires completed by each household at the start and end of their 4- to 6-week PHEV demonstration period, and quantitative measures of driving and recharging behavior from the data systems onboard the vehicles. Thematic analysis was used to create themes from the narratives. Bridging from the idiosyncratic experience of each household toward a societal narrative, the authors describe the following themes: confusion, recharging habits and etiquette, changing driving behavior, payback analysis, saving money, expectations, and the future. No theme explicitly identified global warming, indicating a gap between lay and expert understandings of both the technology and motivations. The themes lead to suggestions for education, information, marketing, and direct experience.
Electrification of light duty vehicles using plug-in electric vehicles in conjunction with new generation of renewable energy to match the new electrical load addresses global concerns of greenhouse gas emissions and is being considered as a way to reduce environmental damage from the transportation sector. A database was gathered over a year from a fleet of 76 vehicles in Winnipeg, Canada and is used to develop a daily driving profile approximating actual driving power demand and parking times for charging these vehicles. The data are utilized to construct a commuter driving cycle based on the parameters defining functionality of a light duty vehicle. The cycle is then used in an energy-based simulation to optimize battery size for a commuter sedan car. Overnight only versus overnight and day charging scenarios are then compared. It is found that the battery storage size can be decreased by up to 40% without loss of functionality with a 2.4 h daily charge.Research highlights► From a database of 76 car drivers in a Canadian city were monitored over a year using, a 24 h commuter duty cycle including parking times is developed to assesses efficient battery charging cycles. ► Parking times were broken down into 4 groups: home, work, commercial and other when considering charging options ► The driving cycle including parking times is compared assuming two battery chemistries and two types of charging for various battery pack sizes.
Who Is Buying Electric Cars in California? Exploring Household and Vehicle Fleet Characteristics of New Plug-in Vehicle Owners
- Gil Tal
- Michael A Nicholas
- Justin Woodjack
- Daniel Scrivano
Tal, Gil, Michael A Nicholas, Justin Woodjack,
and Daniel Scrivano. 2013. Who Is Buying
Electric Cars in California? Exploring
Household and Vehicle Fleet Characteristics of
New Plug-in Vehicle Owners. Research
Report-UCD-ITS-RR-13-02.
Plug-in Vehicles in the San Diego Region: A Spatial Analysis of the Demand for Plug-in Vehicles
- Gil Tal
- Michael Nicholas
- Justin Woodjack
- Daniel Scrivano
- Thomas Turrentine
Tal, Gil, Michael Nicholas, Justin Woodjack,
Daniel Scrivano, and Thomas Turrentine. 2012,
May 6-9. Plug-in Vehicles in the San Diego
Region: A Spatial Analysis of the Demand for
Plug-in Vehicles. In Electric Vehicle
Symposium 26. Los Angeles Convention
Center.