Uncertainty perceptions in export marketing

Abstract

In recent years, the volume of international trade has increased enormously due to the effects of globalization and liberalization of trade. However, political and economic changes, changes in consumer demand, market structures, product and market life cycles, domestic and foreign competition and the degree of effects caused by these changes became more and more significant. Such changes also cause uncertainty for the firms and thus, the firms making or intending to make business globally are obliged to implement dynamic strategies and action plans due to this volatile environment. Considering above mentioned points, this study aims to explore the uncertainties facing the exporting firms located in Izmir. The topics to be explored in this study will include uncertainties related with external and internal environment of the firms.

Full text

6
th
International Scientific Conference
May 13–14, 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania
BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT 2010
Selected papers. Vilnius, 2010
ISSN 2029-4441 print / ISSN 2029-428X CD
doi:10.3846/bm.2010.048
http://www.vgtu.lt/en/editions/proceedings
© Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2010
355
UNCERTAINTY PERCEPTIONS IN EXPORT MARKETING
Aykan Candemir
1
, Ali Erhan Zalluhoglu
2
, Erdal Demiralay
3
1,2
Ege University, Faculty of Business and Administrative Sciences, 35040, Bornova, Izmir, Turkey,
E-mail:
1
aykan.candemir@ege.edu.tr;
2
erhan.zalluhoglu@ege.edu.tr
3
HRM (Human Resources Management), Cumhuriyet Meydani Mayis Is Merkezi No:123/1
Kat:5 D:503 Alsancak, Izmir, Turkey
E-mail: erdal@hrm.com.tr
Abstract. In recent years, the volume of international trade has increased enormously due to the effects of
globalization and liberalization of trade. However, political and economic changes, changes in consumer
demand, market structures, product and market life cycles, domestic and foreign competition and the
degree of effects caused by these changes became more and more significant. Such changes also cause
uncertainty for the firms and thus, the firms making or intending to make business globally are obliged to
implement dynamic strategies and action plans due to this volatile environment. Considering above
mentioned points, this study aims to explore the uncertainties facing the exporting firms located in Izmir.
The topics to be explored in this study will include uncertainties related with external and internal
environment of the firms.
Keywords: Uncertainty, export marketing, international trade, exporting firms.
1. Introduction
In the last 25 years, globalization increasingly be-
came a topic of interest in politics, the business
world, and the scientific world. Within the context
of globalization, lifting of quotas, establishment of
free zones, new institutions, introduction of stan-
dards, regulations and deregulations, liberalization
of financial flows, changing banking system, in-
creasing foreign direct investments and the in-
crease in the volume of global trade created oppor-
tunities and threats; increase in revenues, new
choices for consumers, price benefits and rising
quality.
When a company evaluates whether to
operate in international market or not, it must de-
termine the best mode of entry. Basic choices are
exporting, licencing, franchising, joint ventures
and foreign direct investment.
Exporting has been identified as one of the
important entry strategies into international busi-
ness (Terpstra 1988). Exporting is also the sim-
plest way to enter foreign market. The company
may passively export its surpluses from time to
time or it may make an active commitment to ex-
pand exports to a particular market. In either case,
the company produces all its goods in its home
country. It may or may not modify them for the
export market. Exporting involves the least change
in the company’s product lines, organizations, in-
vestments or missions (Kotler, Armstrong 2004).
However, exporting, in comparison to domestic
business, is considered inherently risky because it
involves potential loss of profits or assets as a re-
sult of potential changes in political, legal, eco-
nomic and socio-cultural factors in foreignmarkets
(Roth 1992). Thus, when decision-makers decid-
ing to go or not to export, they evaluate the oppor-
tunities and threats comes form exporting. The
decision maker’s perception on “more likely to
perceive as threat” or “more likely to perceive as
opportunity” is very important to decide to go
global market or not (Burpitt, Rondinelli 1998).
2. Literature review
When a firm is operating outside the domestic
market, dealing with external and internal envi-
ronment constitutes a more complex reality for a
manager. The following general external aspects
can be distinguished:
– The export market.
– The home market.
– The influence of the domestic government.
Next to the external environment, the internal
environment plays a crucial role in shaping the
context in which the exporting activities are con-
ducted and/or the export performance is achieved.
firm concept can be divided into (1) background
characteristics (or demographics) and (2) firm
competencies. The background characteristics
found in this review are (related to) firm size,
company age, industry specifics (and the technol-
ogical complexity of the product), firm structure,
and firm culture. Although not exactly the same
by definition, competencies are also referred to
using related terms, such as capabilities (Evange-
lista 1994), competitive advantages (Moini 1995),
or expertise (Moini 1995). These incorporate

A. Candemir, A. E. Zalluhoglu, E. Demiralay
356
some or all aspects of overall (international) ex-
perience, managing, marketing, and exporting
competencies.
In international activities, uncertainty is gen-
erally greater than in domestic operations and the
difficulties of getting information are normally
huge. It is the lack of market knowledge that is
the greatest obstacle to the first foreign venture,
and it is the access to such knowledge which
makes it possible for the internationally expe-
rienced firm to extend its activities to new mar-
kets (Johanson 1977). According to Petersen et
al. (2002), one of the main barriers to interna-
tional expansion is the uncertainty of foreign
markets, and the Internet can be a tool for reduc-
ing asymmetric information (facilitating the crea-
tion, retention and transfer of tacit knowledge).
Uncertainty has had a long history in the econom-
ics literature, but is of somewhat more recent
concern in the marketing channels literature. Ka-
tona (1980) suggests that uncertainty in the econ-
omy may be identified with insufficient informa-
tion or conflicting signals about forthcoming
trends. Technological uncertainty, for example,
may reduce incentives for integration, while other
types of uncertainty tend to increase incentives
for integration (Balakrishnan, Wemerfelt 1986).
Lorenzi’s (1980) description of uncertainty seems
cogent: Uncertainty refers to events that cannot
be forecasted. It is not merely change or the rate
of change, but the unpredictable change, in va-
riables that affect critical dependent relationships.
Lorenzi (1980) further defines perceived envi-
ronmental uncertainty as the perceptual process
mediating a transaction between the individual and
the external environment. It has been envisioned
and operationalized differently by various re-
searchers (Koberg 1987; Lawrence, Lorsch 1967;
Swamidass, Newell 1987), but certain dimensions,
such as diversity, dynamism, and capacity seem
common to most conceptualizations. Achrol and
Stern (1988) appear to have described this con-
struct comprehensively, including diversity, dy-
namism, concentration, capacity, interconnected-
ness, interdependence, and conflict in their
discussion. Perceived environmental uncertainty is
seen as a dynamic process capable of influencing
the behavior of the individual and subsequently the
organization.
Principal sources of perceived environmental
uncertainty include variability or instability of re-
sources (Achrol, Reve, Stern 1983), demand, vola-
tility, and interchannel competition (Etgar 1977),
dynamism (Achrol, Stern 1988; Jaworski 1988),
environmental capacity and diversity (Klein,
Frazier, Roth 1990).
Miller divided the internationalization uncer-
tainty into three big classes from the perspective of
executives’ perception in 1992: General environ-
mental uncertainty, industrial uncertainty and cor-
porate uncertainty. His research formatted the un-
certainties into an integrated risk management
framework finally. Miller’s research did an overall
and systematic classification of uncertainties en-
terprises faced when entering the international
market for the first time, the integrated framework
proposed “Perceived Environmental Uncertainty”,
is abbreviated as “PEU” model. In 1996, Keith D.
Brouthers, Lance Eliot Brouther and Steve Werner
continued to modify Miller’s PEU, and offered (1)
the uncertainty of government policy, (2) macroe-
conomic uncertainty (3) the uncertainty of corpo-
rate resources and services (4) the uncertainty of
demand for products, (5) competitive uncertain-
ties, (6) industry technical uncertainty. The author
named the refined evaluation method PEU2 (Hui,
2008).
The theoretical explanation for the relation-
ship between exporting experience and export per-
formance lies in the issue of uncertainty and the
way firms cope with it (Erramilli 1991). Less ex-
perienced exporters are likely to perceive consi-
derable uncertainty, which in turn might adversely
affect their perceptions of potential risks and re-
turns about overseas markets and operations
(Agarwal, Ramaswami 1992; Davidson 1982).
Nonetheless, with increasing exporting experience,
firms are likely to perceive less uncertainty in their
exporting activities; have a better understanding of
foreign market mechanisms; develop a network of
personal contacts and customer relationships
abroad; and, consequently, design and implement
effective export marketing programmes (Madsen
1989).
3. Methodology and findings
An e-mail survey was conducted in Izmir and used
to generate data in order to test the hypotheses. As
Turkey’s third largest city, İzmir is an important
center for manufacturing and trade. With its
organized industrial zones and free zones, Izmir is
one of the life lines of the Turkish economy. A
random sample of 456 exporter firms located in
Izmir was selected from the Izmir Exporter’s Un-
ion and other governmental institutions database
system. The sample included businesses from a
wide range of industrial sectors. The question-
naires were e-mailed to the firms and expected to
be answered by the top managers, export managers
and export specialists. Two weeks after sending
the e-mails, a follow-up e-mail was sent for non-

UNCERTAINTY IN EXPORT MARKETING: THE EXAMPLE OF EXPORTING FIRMS IN IZMIR, TURKEY
357
responses. In total, out of 156 firms 9 were
deemed ineligible (e.g. not properly filled). Thus
147 firms were taken for analysis. Company poli-
cies restricting the giving of information to exter-
nal parties; and time constraints forms the main
reasons for non-participation and non-response
.
Table 1. Frequency Table I
Sector
Frequency
Valid Percent (%)
Agriculture 47 32
Industry 75 51
Mining 25 17
Total 147 100
Producer and Exporter 124 84,4
Only Exporter (No
production)
21 14,3
Sectoral Foreign Trade
Company
2 1,4
Total 147 100
1987 and before
57 38,8
1988 – 1994
24 16,3
1995 – 2001
31 21,1
2002 and later
35 23,8
Total 147 100
%100 Turkish
126 85,7
Percentege of foreign
capital (%1- %50)
5 3,4
Percentege of foreign
capital (%51- %99)
8 5,4
Foreign Owned (%100)
8 5,4
Total 147 100
Capital Structure
Year of Establishment
Type of Activity
From the frequency tables (Table 1 and 2) it
can be seen that majority of the firms are dealing
with industrial production and also majority of
firms are both producer and exporter. The
foundation dates of the firms are classified
according to turning points in Turkish Economy.
1987 is the year when Turkey applied for the full
membership to the European Union, 1994 and
2001 are the years when Turkey passed through
economic crisis. 1995 is the year when the
Customs Union with the EU came into force. Also
from the table it can be seen that majority of the
firms are 100 % Turkish.
According to the new Small and Medium
Sized Enterprises definition issued by the
government in accordance with the EU, the great
number of the firms examined in the study can be
defined as medium sized. Although majority of the
firms are founded before 1987, nearly half of the
them (49,7 %) can be stated as less experienced in
export marketing (1–9 years of export experience).
Despite the fact that almost half of the firms are
less experienced, nearly half of the firms (43.5 %)
have high export rates (76 %–100 %), this may
show the export orientation of the firms.
Table 2. Frequency Table II
Number of Employees
Frequency
Valid Percent (%)
1-49 52 35,4
50-249 61 41,5
250 and over 34 23,1
Total 147 100
Founded pr imarily for
domestic market
66 44,9
Founded primarily for export
markets
48 32,7
Founded both for domestic
and foreign markets
33 22,4
Total 1 47 100
Export Experience Between
1-
9 Years
73 49,7
Export Experience Between
10-19 Years
37 25,2
Export Experience Between
20-29 Years
20 13,6
Export Experience 30 Years
and More
17 11,6
Total 1 47 100
0%-25% 40 27,2
26%-50% 27 18,4
51%-75% 16 10,9
76% - 100%
64 43,5
Total 147 100
Export Sales /Total sales
Market orientation (Foundation of the Firm)
Export Experience
The questionnaire consisted questions to find
out the characterstics of the exporters and likert
scale of 5 items (1= not important at all… 5= very
important) were developed to determine the uncer-
tainty perceptions of the firms. Then the 5 item
likert scale was transformed into 3 item scale (not
important to important) in order to more meaning-
ful results and better interpretation. Following this
transformation, analyses were made.
After the application of reliability test for
external factors, cronbach’s alpha value for N = 9
was found as 0.736 > 0.60. This gives the
consistency of the external factors between each
other.
To find out the tendency about external
factors causing uncertainty for perception of the
exporter firms located in Izmir, one sample t-test
was applied. The indifference point (mean) was
chosen as “2” and Ho hypothesis was set up as
follows:
Ho = The effects of external uncertainties are not
different from the indifference point (mean)
among the exporters located in Izmir.
The external uncertainties were different than
the mean except for “uncertainties due to teror”.
The uncertainty that may be caused by teror was
stated as “neither unimportant nor important” with

A. Candemir, A. E. Zalluhoglu, E. Demiralay
358
a mean of 1.91 (t = -1.214, df = 142 ve P = 0.227).
However, uncertainties caused by other external
factors were stated as important and thus Ho
hypothesis was not rejected.
After the application of reliability test for
internal factors, cronbach’s alpha value for N = 9
was found as 0.821 > 0.60. This gives the
consistency of the external factors between each
other.
Majority of the firms (80.3 %) have export
departments and according to independent sample t-
test, differences were found between the firms
having an export department and the degree of their
export sales/total sales (t = 0.02, df = 145,
sig = 0.002). From the analysis, it can be seen that
when the export sales/total sales increases, the num-
ber of firms having export department increases.
To find out the tendency about internal factors
causing uncertainty for perception of the exporter
firms located in Izmir, one sample t-test was
applied. The indifference point (mean) was chosen
as “2” and Ho hypothesis was set up as follows:
Ho = The effects of internal uncertainties are not
different from the indifference point (mean)
among the exporters located in Izmir.
The internal uncertainties were different than
the mean and thus Ho hypothesis was rejected.
Sub sectors consisting the exporters were gathered
into three main sectors i.e. agriculture, industry
and mining in accordance with the classification of
Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade of The Republic
of Turkey.
To test the differences between groups for the
external and internal uncertainties one-way
ANOVA test was applied. Null Hypothesis for
external factors was:
Ho= The degree of importance related to external
factors are not different among sectors
Within 95 % confidence interval, one way
ANOVA test was applied to the groups for the
values F = 3.558, df = 2 ve p = 0.31. For the
external factors the differences between the groups
were found for uncertainties for technological
conditions and teror from the descriptives. Thus
null hypothesis was rejected.
Considering the terror, the mean for
agriculture sector was 2.15 and for the mining
sector the mean was 1.64 which means the
exporters of agricultural products tend to give
higher importance for the uncertainties in
conditions related with technology. This may be
due to the worries for several factors (i.e. changes
in price levels, demand etc.) in case of a terror
event or threat. Although the prices and demand
may change for the agricultural products, mining
sector may not be affected because of the nature of
the products.
Considering the technology, the mean for
agriculture sector was 1.95 and for the industry
sector the mean was 2.24 which means the
exporters of industrial products tend to give higher
importance for the uncertainties in conditions
related with technology.
However, considering the uncertainties caused
by the changing conditions in competition, the
degree of importance varies between agriculture
and mining. The mean for agriculture sector was
2.82 and for the mining sector the mean was 2.54
which means the exporters of agricultural products
tend to give higher importance for the
uncertainties in conditions related with
competition.
Null Hypothesis for internal factors was
Ho = The degree of importance related to internal
factors are not different among sectors.
Within 95 % confidence interval, one way
ANOVA test was applied. For the internal factors
the differences within the groups were not found.
Thus null hypothesis was not rejected.
To test the relations between the uncertainties
caused by the external and internal factors and the
age of the firms as well as the years of experience
in exports, correlation analysis was made. The
Null hypotheses were:
H1a = The degree of importance stated for the
uncertainties caused by the external factors is not
related with the age of the firm.
H1b = The degree of importance stated for the
uncertainties caused by the external factors is not
related with the experience in exports.
H2a = The degree of importance stated for the
uncertainties caused by the internal factors is not
related with the age of the firm.
H2b = The degree of importance stated for the
uncertainties caused by the internal factors is not
related with the experience in exports.
Within the 95 % confidence interval the
degree of importance stated for the uncertainties
caused by the external and internal factors was
found as not being related with the age of the firm
as well as the export experience. According to this,
regardless of their ages and export experiences
firms perceive the uncertainties indifferently.
To test the differences between groups for the
importance given to external uncertainties related
to the internationalization processes, one-way
ANOVA test was applied. Null Hypothesis was:
Ho = The degree of importance given to external
uncertainties is not different depending on the
internationalization process of the firm.

UNCERTAINTY IN EXPORT MARKETING: THE EXAMPLE OF EXPORTING FIRMS IN IZMIR, TURKEY
359
Within 95 % confidence interval, when one
way ANOVA test was applied to the groups for
the values F = 3.713, df = 2 ve p = 0.27, since
differences were found between groups for the
internationlization process, Ho was rejected.
Differences were found between the firms that
were founded primarily for domestic market and
the firms that were founded primarily for exports
about their statements for the uncertainties caused
by terror.
The firms that were founded primarily for
domestic market gives less importance to the
uncertainties caused by terror (mean: 1.71), where
the firms that were founded primarily for exports
gives more importance to the uncertainties caused
by terror (mean: 2.12). The main reason for this
may be the fear to lose export markets due to the
terror events.
Within 95 % confidence interval, when one
way ANOVA test was applied to the groups for
the values F = 3.416, df = 2 ve p = 0.36, since
differences were found between groups for the
internationlization process, Ho was rejected.
Differences were found between the firms that
were founded primarily for domestic market and
the firms that were founded primarily for exports
about their statements for the uncertainties caused
by the changes in customer expectations.
The firms that were founded primarily for
domestic market and the firms founded primarily
for foreign markets give more importance to the
uncertainties caused by the changes in customer
expectations (mean: 2.74), where the firms that
were founded both for domestic and foreign
markets give less importance to the uncertainties
caused by the changes in customer expectations
(mean: 2.43). The main reason for this may be that
the firms operating both for domestic and foreign
markets feel themselves secure for being able to
balance the sales in case of any change in the shift
of customer expectations and demand.
To test the differences between groups (Ex-
port Sales/Total sales) for the external
uncertainties one-way ANOVA test was applied.
Null Hypothesis for external factors was:
Ho = The degree of importance related to external
factors are not different among the firms with var-
ious Export sales/Total sales.
According to the results of One-way Anova
test, the degree of importance related to external
factors were different among the firms with vari-
ous export sales/total sales. So, Ho hypothesis was
rejected.
To test the differences between groups (Ex-
port Sales/Total sales) for the internal uncertainties
one-way ANOVA test was applied. Null
Hypothesis for external factors was:
Ho = The degree of importance related to internal
factors are not different among the firms with var-
ious Export sales/Total sales.
According to the results of One-way Anova
test, the degree of importance related to human
resources management was found different among
the firms with various export sales/total sales for
F = 2.905, df = 3 ve p = 0.37 value between
groups. So Ho hypothesis is rejected. The firms
having 51-75 % export sales/total sales
(mean = 2.85) give higher importance to human
resources management compared to other firms
with different export sales/total sales percentages.
These firms may try to increase their export sales
and for this objective they may need qualified em-
ployees to gain stability and improvement in their
export sales.
4. Conclusions
Firms appear to experience greater impact, greater
perceived internal and external uncertainty, in their
export activities, compared to their domestic
activities.
The possibility of a successful internatio-
nalisation depends on the characteristics of the
firm explained by its different resources and
capabilities for creating a competitive advantage.
Some key factors that affect the foreign trade of
firms, and how they determine different behaviour
patterns in their export behaviour may be the
country and the sector to which the exporting firm
belongs, the characteristics of the firm, its export
level, size, organisational structure, human
resources, international experience, export
sales/total sales rate and nature of the products to
be traded. Some factors e.g. terror may also appear
as important external for the firms as presented in
the study. Some factors such may be considered
more important than commonly known factors
such as export experience, age of the firms.
Besides these, effective exporting requires de-
velopment of comprehensive and flexible export
strategies that take into consideration the changing
external and internal environment.
Firms should more intensively manage their export
activities, compared to their domestic channels, for
improving performance. And thus the managers of
exporting firms should be educated and trained to
anticipate the dynamics of the internal and external
uncertainties in which they will be operating
before being faced with decisions to be affected by
uncertainty.

A. Candemir, A. E. Zalluhoglu, E. Demiralay
360
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