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Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: A social–ecological system approach in the Australian Alps
Abstract
Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social–ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed.
... Sharma and Yang [4] discussed three types of scenario analysis: The prospective approach, the firecracker method, and the shell approach, and proposed the use of a scenario approach in the field of digital media with three policy construction parameters: Ownership, innovation, and distribution. Parallel studies were conducted by Mitchell et al. [29] who employed both social ecological systems and scenario analyses to investigate the interactions between humans and biodiversity outcomes. Ramírez and Selsky [12] also used a social ecology approach in scenario analysis to examine the unpredictability and uncertainty that characterizes turbulent environments. ...
... Finally, Oliver and Parrett [36] evaluated the role of scenario planning and provided empirical evidence on how the scenario planning tool was adopted and selected from the strategist's toolbox. However, all of the above studies [12,[29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36] employed the one-tier scenario planning model. Lacking comprehensive consideration has been the major drawback for the one-tier model, because a single committee has to complete two challenging tasks: Scenario development and policy planning. ...
... The theoretical contribution of this study was the proposal of the two-tier scenario planning method, through the two-stage scenario analysis and policy planning process, which has a more refined current scenario planning procedure. Referring to methodology of the scenario planning model in the last five years, most studies [12,[29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36] employed the one-tier model. However, lacking comprehensive consideration has been the major drawback for the one-tier model, because a single committee has to complete two challenging tasks: Scenario development and policy planning. ...
This study proposes a two-tier scenario planning model, consisting of scenario development and policy portfolio planning, to demonstrate the environmental sustainability policy planning process. Scenario development embodies future scenarios that incorporate the uncertainties regarding the decision values and technological alternatives. Policy portfolio planning is used to assess the selected policy alternatives under each scenario and to develop a robust and responsive plan. We organized first- and second-tier committees of 10–12 experts from diverse professional fields to undertake environmental sustainability policy planning in Taiwan. The first-tier committee generated three scenarios: “live at the mercy of the elements”, “industry convergence”, and “technology pilot”. The second-tier committee ensured that, from cradle-to-cradle (C2C), green supply chain management (GSCM), and industry symbiosis (IS), life-cycle type policies enhance green willingness and capabilities in the businesses. This is the first study to consider the first-tier process with scenario development and the second-tier process with policy portfolio planning for environmental sustainability, and contributes by considering intuitive logics approach-based scenarios and robust policies for extant portfolio plans, providing life-cycle- type policy profiles in environmental sustainability.
... Relying on 'coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions', scenarios portray a range of imaginative futures, which, despite low certainty, provide significant opportunities for strategic decision-making (Nakicenovic et al. 2000;Swart et al. 2004;Van Notten 2006;Alcamo and Henrichs 2008). On the one hand, scenarios contribute an understanding of the tradeoffs in vital ecosystem services; they identify conservation opportunities, analyze policy alternatives, and thereby, enable decision-makers to prepare for likely changes, avoid disasters and cope with sudden surprises (Alcamo and Henrichs 2008;Mitchell et al. 2015;Bryan et al. 2016;Kok et al. 2017); on the other, scenarios also help to explore new paradigms, innovations, regime shifts, and create new knowledge for efficient and prudent management of natural resources (Mitchell et al. 2016). Moreover, distinct types of scenarios 1 contribute to the entire policy cycle, starting from agenda setting and screening of policy-alternatives, to identification of the gaps, challenges and recommending necessary updates to ensure a desirable future (IPBES 2016). ...
... The other three modes of scenario analysis, namely 'participatory approach' (e.g. Mitchell et al. 2015;, 'policy review' approach (e.g. Cotter et al. 2014;Suwarno et al. 2018) and 'trend manipulation' approach (e.g. ...
... Estoque and Murayama 2012;Mozumder and Tripathi 2014), policy reforms (e.g. Mitchell et al. 2015) and favorable institutional changes such as participatory conservation, incentives and regime shifts. Likewise, scenario studies, predominantly from Southeast Asia and Oceania, demonstrated analogous assumptions while describing future occurrence, distribution, production and consumption of marine ecosystems services (e.g. ...
This paper presents a systematic review of biodiversity/ecosystem services scenario exercises from the Asia–Pacific region. From the limited scholarly literature available, 61 scenario exercises were examined to explore their typology and multiple scenario attributes, including geographic distribution, consideration for influential drivers, choices of ecosystem services, number of alternative futures and temporal horizons for scenario deployment. To analyze the nature and tendency of 204 regional scenario narratives, collated from the 61 regional/sub-regional scenario studies, we used the Global Scenario Group (GSG) archetypes to synthesize diverse, contrasting scenario assumptions. A further attempt was made to identify regional focuses in relation to the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) through rigorous, qualitative screening of scenario narratives. Our observation suggests that, so far, spatially explicit, exploratory scenarios dominate regional ecosystem services/biodiversity scenario research, with emphasis on the assessment of likely trades-offs in food-provisioning ecosystem services. The archetype analysis further indicated that the regional/sub-regional scenarios mostly correspond to the market force, policy reform and eco-communalism pathways of the GSG archetypes, while population growth, climate change, agricultural expansion and urbanization remain the dominant regional drivers of change. With respect to integration of SDGs, environmental targets listed under SDGs 11 to 15, in addition to the first three SDGs (i.e. SDGs 1, 2 and 3), remain well-integrated within the regional/sub-regional scenario narratives, albeit with variations across the sub-regions. The review concludes with a number of recommendations for future biodiversity/scenario research in the Asia–Pacific, which should aim to put emphasis on development of short-term, normative, participatory scenarios and incorporation for cultural services, especially those with non-material benefits.
... Our research aim, therefore, was to explore the use of a participatory scenario planning process to test the efficacy of proposed governance reforms for enhancing biodiversity outcomes. The final stage of the research process is presented here, in which stakeholders in two contrasting case study contexts participated in workshops in 2014 to assess the effect of proposed governance reforms on the 2030 scenarios developed at workshops the previous year (Mitchell et al., 2015b(Mitchell et al., , 2016. Because the scenarios had been created assuming relatively constant governance arrangements, participants in the 2014 workshops could then assess the extent they considered the proposed governance arrangements would influence the scenarios and hence change biodiversity outcomes relative to their likely futures under current arrangements. ...
... As this paper reports on the final stage of a research project, it is necessary to provide a brief overview of the project, the two case study contexts, and the scenarios and reforms used as the basis for the 2014 workshop deliberations. More detail is available elsewhere (Mitchell et al., 2015a(Mitchell et al., , 2015b(Mitchell et al., , 2016. The research was framed by SES analysis (Resilience Alliance, 2010), which provided the basis for the case study descriptions and scenario construction. ...
... The scenarios were developed at previous workshops in 2013 drawing on SES modelling (Mitchell et al., 2015b(Mitchell et al., , 2016. Participants first identified the most important drivers and influences of change on the system, before considering which of these drivers had the greatest level of uncertainty concerning their future state by 2030. ...
Governance arrangements frame and direct how land managers respond to the multiple demands and challenges of conserving biodiversity. Biodiversity conservation requires attention to how social-ecological systems (SES) change and can be influenced over time. It is important that governance settings within these systems can support achievement of biodiversity outcomes. Two questions then arise. Will current arrangements lead to desirable biodiversity outcomes, and if not, are there other arrangements that plausibly might do better? However, methods for answering these questions in collaboration with critical stakeholders such as policy makers and land managers are not evident in the literature. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of a participatory scenario planning process to test the efficacy of proposed governance reforms for enhancing biodiversity outcomes in two contrasting landscapes in Australia. A workshop process was used to consider the effect of the reform options on key drivers of change, and thus how these affected drivers would in turn modify future scenarios, and the biodiversity outcomes of these scenarios. In both landscapes, there was a preference for reforms that retained governmental influence or control, in contrast to academic calls for adaptive governance that emphasises the importance of self-organisation and devolution of authority. The workshop process, although complex and cognitively challenging, was regarded by participants as suitable for testing the utility of alternative governance options for biodiversity conservation. Challenges for the future include designing and considering reforms based on what is possible rather than probable or preferable, and engaging participants over time to build knowledge, engagement and trust. The paper concludes with suggestions for addressing these challenges.
... Communities generate revenue from tourism that follows "environmentally friendly" guidelines, mobilizes capacity to preserve local food provisioning and biodiversity, and safeguards against the desecration of cultural heritage sites, thereby contributing to cultural and recreational value (Soliva and Hunziker, 2009;Bizikova et al., 2012;Oteros-Rozas et al., 2015;Capitani et al., 2016). Tourism companies step into the public sphere, playing a strong role in improving infrastructure and services in MtSES, particularly for ecotourism and holiday and retirement homes (Loibl and Walz, 2010;Mitchell et al., 2015). Tourism entrepreneurs pay pastoralists, park managers, and traditional users to comanage areas and enhance the aesthetic quality of the landscape as a tourist destination (Lamarque et al., 2013). ...
... These changes affect species distributions and composition, with certain species adapting and others becoming extinct (Wyborn et al., 2015) or invasive (Jaeger et al., 2017). Climate change introduces additional challenges for tourism markets in both summer (e.g., biking, angling, and hiking) and winter (e.g., skiing), with increased variability in rainfall, declining snow depth, and shorter snow seasons (Mitchell et al., 2015). MtSES actors were concerned that mitigation measures do not fit the aspirations for local self-sufficient economies, with limited government preparedness for compounding risks (Sarkki et al., 2017). ...
Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) are transforming rapidly due to changes in multiple environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, the complexity and diversity of MtSES present challenges for local communities, researchers and decision makers seeking to anticipate change and promote action towards sustainable MtSES. Participatory scenario planning can reveal potential futures and their interacting dynamics, while archetype analysis aggregates insights from site-based scenarios. We combined a systematic review of the global MtSES participatory scenarios literature and archetype analysis to identify emergent MtSES archetypal configurations. An initial sample of 1983 rendered 42 articles that contained 142 scenarios within which were 852 ‘futures states’. From these future states within the scenarios, we identified 59 desirable and undesirable futures that were common across studies. These ‘common futures’ were grouped into four clusters that correlated significantly with three social-ecological factors (GDP per capita, income inequality, and mean annual temperature). Using these clusters and their associated significant factors, we derived four MtSES scenario archetypal configurations characterized by similar key adaptation strategies, assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. We called these archetypes: (1) “revitalization through effective institutions and tourism”; (2) “local innovations in smallholder farming and forestry”; (3) “upland depopulation and increased risk of hazards”; and (4) “regulated economic and ecological prosperity”. Results indicate risks to be mitigated, including biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation, cultural heritage change, loss of connection to the land, weak leadership, market collapse, upland depopulation, increased landslides, avalanches, mudflows and rock falls, as well as climate variability and change. Transformative opportunities lie in adaptive biodiversity conservation, income diversification, adaptation to market fluxes, improving transport and irrigation infrastructure, high quality tourism and preserving traditional knowledge. Despite the uncertainties arising from global environmental changes, these archetypes support better targeting of evidence-informed actions across scales and sectors in MtSES.
... These scenario narratives were developed in consultation with relevant scientific experts from initial dot point prompts provided by stakeholders. The process used mirrors that adopted for a parallel case study involving the Australian Alps (Mitchell, Lockwood, Moore, & Clement, 2015b). ...
... The method used to develop scenarios for the Tasmanian Midlands is the same as that used for a parallel case study involving the Australian Alps (Mitchell et al., 2015b). In both case studies, SES analysis provided the basis for developing the scenario narratives, and we were able to connect with and build on emerging efforts among key stakeholders to develop alternative, more collaborative planning and governance arrangements. ...
Improving biodiversity futures requires a systems-based appreciation of the dynamic human and biophysical interactions shaping landscapes. By combining a structured approach to identifying key drivers of change on biodiversity with a collaborative approach to scenario planning, biodiversity planners and managers can work with stakeholders to identify a range of possible futures and explore their implications. This paper presents an approach to developing scenario narratives constructed against key drivers of change identified through a social–ecological systems analysis. The approach facilitated the integration of stakeholder and expert input to inform system dynamics affecting biodiversity outcomes, helping to direct and discipline the collective imagination, and to challenge assumptions and reveal new opportunities and strategies. Examples are provided to show how conventional notions about preserving biodiversity remnants “as is” were not a good fit for the diverse range of futures imagined, and that restoration ecology would have to expand to incorporate ideas of landscape fluidity and novel ecosystems. Aspects of the scenario narratives highlighted the need for new conservation strategies for the endangered native grassland ecological community within the Tasmanian Midlands case study, and a re-focusing on new locations across that landscape.
... Alpine freshwater streams are an important resource, not only for the natural environment but also for humans, both as a source of drinking water and hydroelectric power production (Brosse et al., 2022). Accounting for 18% of Wetlands of International Importance (Xu et al., 2019), alpine streams, wetlands and bogs are unique ecosystems often containing species specialized and even exclusive to these regions (Mitchell et al., 2015;Xu et al., 2019;Xue et al., 2022). Alpine riparian environments are, however, subject to a changing climate, which is trending towards reduced winter snowfall leading to changes in hydrology, which influences erosion and sedimentation (Capon et al., 2013). ...
Protected areas can be impacted by the presence and proliferation of feral species. Effective management of feral species requires reliable tools to monitor their population size and ecological impacts. Here, we used drone‐based image analysis to assess evidence of feral horses and horse‐specific ecological impacts on alpine riparian habitat. Valleys with low (0), medium (1–16) and high (>16) horse abundances were chosen for drone imagery analysis based on independent aerial counts of horses. Data collection trips were carried out pre‐ and post‐2019/2020 wildfires, which unexpectedly burnt valleys with low horse presence. Drone‐based RGB orthomosaic imagery was sufficient to identify seven indicators of horse presence and determine the severity of feral horse impacts. Despite the impact of fire, drone‐derived classifications were able to accurately detect a gradient of horse impacts, showing a significant difference in indicators from low presence valleys compared with medium and high presence valleys, which did not differ significantly from each other. The significance of differences between valleys reveals that regions routinely inhabited by feral horses will display significant environmental impacts. Our results clearly indicated significant differences between valleys with low horse presence compared with either medium or high horse presence regions (0.01 for differences between both low and medium and low and high horse presence). This was evident both before and after the 2019/2020 fires, suggesting that wildfires did not significantly impact horse populations or distribution in the sampled region. Overall, it was evident that feral horses have a clear and definable impact on alpine riparian vegetation, and drone surveying can be used to routinely monitor potential spread and the outcome of management actions. Protected areas can be impacted by feral species, and effective means of detection are necessary. Here, we find drones to be a useful tool for the detection of feral horse impacts in a vulnerable alpine riparian ecosystem. Horse impacts were significant in regions of medium and high horse presence, both before and after significant bushfires in the region of study.
... The most popular area is the region from the Alpine Way near Thredbo to the Snowy Mountains Highway near Kiandra (NSW Government 2006). It encompasses the treeless alpine zone termed the 'Main Range' with numerous alpine peaks above 2000 m, including Mt Kosciuszko, the highest mountain on mainland Australia (2228 m), as well as the Jagungal Wilderness, comprising Mt Jagungal (2008m) and a range of heritage significant backcountry huts (Mitchell et al. 2015). ...
The dual mandate of conserving natural and/or cultural heritage while facilitating visitor experiences challenges protected area managers to deal with the environmental impacts of human behaviours. The issue of waste disposal is an important aspect of the human-nature interaction, not least in backcountry areas, yet it is a largely understudied aspect of winter recreation management. To address this gap in knowledge, this study examines remote toileting practices of snow-based visitors travelling and camping in Kosciuszko National Park, Australia. Using recreation specialisation as a theoretical framework for understanding and segmenting users, we examined toileting behaviour of snow-based backcountry visitors. The study highlights that toileting behaviour of snow-based backcountry travellers varies with the level of specialisation. Experts were more willing to carry out waste while those with intermediate experience relied more on infrastructure-intensive forms of waste disposal or buried waste in snow. Adoption of carry-out practices, nonetheless, were low in both segments. Length and place of stay were also important factors. A multi-faceted communication approach targeted at multi-day visitors and promoting carry-out strategies supported by targeted entry-point infrastructure is recommended for effective management.
... With regard to soil conservation/retention, Melaku et al. (2018) proposed an integrated assessment method to evaluate the impacts of soil and water conservation/retention structures on runoff and sediment; Meshram et al. (2021) used game theory based approaches to identify the most vulnerable watershed for soil conservation. As for biodiversity conservation, Mitchell et al. (2015) presented a social-ecological system analysis method to identify the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes for biodiversity conservation; Wen et al. (2021) used Bayesian structural equation models to identify the impact of Plant functional diversity on soil water conservation and seasonal drought intensity. For comprehensive ecological conservation, Lin et al. (2020) used high-resolution remote sensing technology to detect freshwater ecosystem changes for accurate ecological conservation and management; Jia et al. (2021) developed an evaluation framework system to estimate agricultural ecosystem service values and analyze nine ecosystem service functions for ecological environment protection. ...
In order to improve water ecological service and ensure water resource protection, it is imperative to develop an effective evaluation method to identify the water-holding capacity of eco-environmental system. In this study, a comprehensive GIS-based data-fusion analysis framework is developed to evaluate the significance of water conservation/retention function (WCF), identify the potential effects of eco-environmental system on water-holding capability, and analyze the dynamic change of Songhua River basin for years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. A general water conservation/retention function evaluation index is constructed associated with climate, geography and human factors to describe water conservation/retention function. Then, an exponential calculation method and regional integrated significance degree coefficient are used to calculate the WCF significance degrees and identify the distribution and change of WCF significance. The developed assessment framework is then applied in Songhua River basin for water ecological protection and environmental management. The results of WCF significance assessment indicate that only 0.56–2.97% of Songhua River basin is very important level of WCF ecological region with high water-holding capacity. The results of WCF significance assessment can help decision makers understand the temporal and spatial changes, identify priority areas for water resource protection, and provide a reasonable policy-guidance for mid- or long-term eco-environmental planning.
... Scenario analysis is a common factor in many case studies documented in the literature (e.g. Machado et al. 2019;Gray et al 2015;Mitchell et al. 2015) and also recommended by the Resilience Alliance (2010) practitioner's handbook. Exploring scenarios early in the modelling process helps practitioner to operationalise their answer to the question "resilience to what?" (Walker et al. 2002) by exploring disturbances that might affect the system in plausible alternatives futures (Mahmoud et al. 2009). ...
Resilience has emerged as a buzzword among researchers and practitioners. However, despite its popularity, there has been little progress in moving it from a metaphor to applied projects. While case study research is rich with examples of systems that have proven to be resilient or are striving to develop resilience, the approaches for operationalising concepts described in the literature are still under development. This paper contributes to this development by incorporating system dynamics (SD) modelling within participatory approaches to resilience assessment. With this aim, we combined concepts and practices from the resilience literature with experiences, those documented in the literature and our own, applying system dynamics to resilience assessment. The proposed approach builds and complement other the literature by outlining a modelling process that is consistent with both the resilience literature and the SD modelling practices and providing a generic structure for designing interventions.
... It can help to address complex systems holistically by considering multiple, interacting variables and emphasizing transdisciplinarity [11]. This has shown advantages in dealing with biodiversity [12,13], water management [14,15], ecological services [16], landscapes [17], and environmental management [11], among other key topics. ...
Human society has increased its capacity to exploit natural resources thanks to new technologies, which are one of the results of information exchange in the knowledge society. Many approaches to understanding the interactions between human society and natural systems have been developed in the last decades, and some have included considerations about information. However, none of them has considered information as an active variable or flowing entity in the human–natural/social-ecological system, or, moreover, even as a driving force of their interactions. This paper explores these interactions in socio-ecological systems by briefly introducing a conceptual frame focused on the exchange of information, matter, and energy. The human population is presented as a convergence variable of these three physical entities, and a population distribution model for Colombia is developed based on the maximum entropy principle to integrate the balances of related variables as macro-state restrictions. The selected variables were electrical consumption, water demand, and higher education rates (energy, matter, and information). The final model includes statistical moments for previous population distributions. It is shown how population distribution can be predicted yearly by combining these variables, allowing future dynamics exploration. The implications of this model can contribute to bridging information sciences and sustainability studies.
... Conservation biology is viewed as a ''crisis discipline'' where rapid decisions are needed before all the facts are known (Soulé 1985). Recently, proactive methods have shifted this paradigm, with approaches including horizon scanning (Sutherland et al. 2010;Brown et al. 2016), scenario planning (Mitchell et al. 2015), identification of priority actions (Souza and Bernard 2019), research questions ) and possibilities presented by new methods or technologies (Arts et al. 2015). This allows some degree of anticipation and planning, that can complement or even pre-empt crisis approaches. ...
A horizon scan was conducted to identify emerging and intensifying issues for biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5–10 years. South African biodiversity experts submitted 63 issues of which ten were identified as priorities using the Delphi method. These priority issues were then plotted along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be “simple” (amenable to solutions from science alone), “complicated” (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), “complex” (scientifically challenging and significant levels of social disagreement) or “chaotic” (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only three of the issues were likely to be resolved by improved science alone, while the remainder require engagement with social, economic and political factors. Fortunately, none of the issues were considered chaotic. Nevertheless, strategic communication, education and engagement with the populace and policy makers were considered vital for addressing emerging issues.
... Early protected area scenario studies at the global scale analysed how protected areas could cope with pressures and suggested different evolution paths for protected areas in the future (Holdgate, 1994;McNeely, 1994;2005). More recent studies have applied PSP in case studies at the local scale that include terrestrial and marine protected areas (MPA) in order to assess how complex social-ecological systems might evolve (Brown et al., 2001;Mitchell et al., 2015;Palomo et al., 2011). However, it still remains largely unexplored how: (1) different drivers of change can influence the future model of protected areas at intermediate scales (i.e. ...
Protected area coverage targets are still far from being achieved and protected area effectiveness shows major deficiencies. Climate and land use changes and pressures from increasing human populations challenge the future of protected areas. In this research we analyse the trends and effects of these drivers of change on protected areas in Spain. This Mediterranean country, a biodiversity hotspot with many different systems of protected areas, is changing from focusing on increasing protected area coverage towards also improving conservation effectiveness. A Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) approach was developed to create four scenarios in which the evolution of the protected area system was assessed and proposals to achieve a desirable future were agreed among participants. Results show that PSP facilitates exploration of complexity and uncertainty associated with the future of protected areas understood as social-ecological systems. We conclude that greater social and institutional support and active and adaptive management are needed for protected areas in Spain to meet the coverage and effectiveness challenges ahead.
... Early protected area scenario studies at the global scale analysed how protected areas could cope with pressures and suggested different evolution paths for protected areas in the future (Holdgate, 1994;McNeely, 1994;2005). More recent studies have applied PSP in case studies at the local scale that include terrestrial and marine protected areas (MPA) in order to assess how complex social-ecological systems might evolve (Brown et al., 2001;Mitchell et al., 2015;Palomo et al., 2011). However, it still remains largely unexplored how: (1) different drivers of change can influence the future model of protected areas at intermediate scales (i.e. ...
Protected area coverage targets are still far from being achieved and protected area effectiveness shows major deficiencies. Climate and land use changes and pressures from increasing human populations challenge the future of protected areas. In this research we analyse the trends and effects of these drivers of change on protected areas in Spain. This Mediterranean country, a biodiversity hotspot with many different systems of protected areas, is changing from focusing on increasing protected area coverage towards also improving conservation effectiveness. A Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) approach was developed to create four scenarios in which the evolution of the protected area system was assessed and proposals to achieve a desirable future were agreed among participants. Results show that PSP facilitates exploration of complexity and uncertainty associated with the future of protected areas understood as social-ecological systems. We conclude that greater social and institutional support and active and adaptive management are needed for protected areas in Spain to meet the coverage and effectiveness challenges ahead.
... Furthermore, many studies show that to enhance knowledge about the status of threatened species and implement successful measures for their protection, one needs to take into account the respective economic, societal and political conditions (e.g. Ban et al. 2013;Jaramillo-Legorreta et al. 2007;Carpenter et al. 2009;Collins et al. 2011;Mitchell et al. 2015). There have been a lot of discussions already on the lack of knowledge on biodiversity, especially in the beginning of IPBES (Loreau et al. 2006). ...
In 2010, there was a bold commitment to take action in halting global biodiversity loss by 2020. Now, half way through the Convention on Biological Diversity strategic plan 2011–2020, the success of the mission is under discussion. With the Twelfth Conference of the Parties attesting a lack of action, attention is now focused on the science–policy interface. This article offers a critical examination of the current debate on the science–policy interface and its implications for biodiversity research. The aim is to demonstrate the need for a social–ecological perspective. First, we argue that there is not only a lack of action but also a lack of knowledge. Second, we present social–ecological systems as a common framework for biodiversity research. Third, we explain the potential of transdisciplinarity in biodiversity research. We finish by calling for a decisive turning point to consider the hybrid notions of biodiversity in science, politics and conservation activities.
Land use, woodland and forestry policy continues to evolve in response to unfolding economic, social and environmental challenges and opportunities. Concerns about integration across the stakeholder landscape impacting delivery and implementation of policy are common. Competing public and private sector stakeholder goals, narratives and actions are problematic. Developing insights from a recent case study, we uncover fragmentation in narratives, tensions in priorities, and misunderstandings at multiple levels between stakeholders. We identify the corrective influence of ‘dissociative jolts’ to trigger stakeholder's self-realisation of the extent of their unintentionally diverse interpretations of policy. These ‘dissociative jolts’ moments triggered open discussion, debate and reflexive questioning by the participants, enabling them to constructively contest their differences. In doing so, the participants were able to challenge and deconstruct their assumptions, reconstruct and develop new, shared understanding without trauma or denial. The structured mechanisms and formalisms of the intuitive-logics scenario planning approach provided a psychologically safe space with openness and equality of input to surface, explore, question and defragment stakeholder assumptions and narratives. The outcome of this defragmentation process was the collective recognition of failure, if the situation did not change, the dissolution of observed tensions conflicts and dilemmas, and the negotiated agreement for future action by the diverse stakeholder group.
This chapter uses the ideas that we are witnessing the end of biodiversity and the death of restoration as a provocation to consider the future of conservation and restoration in the Anthropocene. It revisits the debates about novel ecosystems, transforming landscapes, and changing governance; explores what these debates might mean for each of the domains of change discussed in this book; and suggests potential pathways forward. Frontiers for future research on the topics of novel ecosystems, transformation, and governance are also discussed.
This chapter builds on the previous discussion of expert perceptions to explore how contested knowledge and ideas can influence capacity to adapt to radically changing environmental and social conditions. It uses the idea of ‘framing contests’ to understand some of the new ways of framing both problems and solutions, which can either be leveraged as an opportunity or used to relabel old ideas and reinforce existing orthodoxies. Global examples relating to wildfire management and nature-based solutions are discussed, with a focus on conflicts between biodiversity conservation and other objectives, including specific examples of how these dynamics are playing out in Australia and Europe. Lessons learned from these examples are used to identify potential tools for change that may lead to more productive debates about the future.
Building on the concepts outlined in Chap. 2, this chapter explores how changes to governance could occur in a structured way, focusing intentionally on those areas that offer the most potential for addressing the transformation of ecosystems. There are five ‘Domains of Change’ that are used throughout the book: (1) how we talk about conservation and frame narratives, (2) how we think about conservation, (3) how we decide about conservation in accordance with culture, norms, and assumptions, (4) how we structure conservation policy instruments and governance structures, and (5) how we act in accordance with capacities for conservation. The opportunities for change in each domain as they relate to biodiversity conservation are discussed.
Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of single- and multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems.
Mountains in western China, hosted rich biodiversity and millions of people and inhabitant with vital ecosystem services, had experienced the most serious biodiversity loss with fragile ecological problems. Even though increasing attentions had been paid to this issue, we still lacked efficient methods to assess the change of plant biodiversity at medium/large scale due to the poor data and co-existing multiple habitat types. This study proposed an integrated method combining InVEST-habitat quality model, NPP and landscape pattern indexes to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of plant biodiversity and its spatiotemporal change on raster cell scale. The results indicated that plant biodiversity service was high in Bailongjiang watershed with obvious spatial pattern variations. The land area containing higher plant biodiversity were 3161 km², which mainly distributed in the National Nature Reserve and forestry area. While the areas with lower plant biodiversity accounted for 37.67% and mainly distributed in the valleys between Zhouqu-Wudu-Wenxian County, the valley of Minjiang in Tanchang County and alpine mountain snow-covered regions. During 1990–2010, plant biodiversity level tended to increase and the higher plant biodiversity area increased from 14.13% to 17.15% due to ecological restoration and afforestation, while plant biodiversity decreased in the area with intensive human activities, such as cultivated land, urban and rural land. The results showed that combining InVEST-habitat quality model, NPP and landscape pattern indexes can effective reveal mountain plant biodiversity change. The study was useful for plant biodiversity conservation policy-making and human activity management for the disaster-impacted mountainous areas in China.
Collaborative forms of governance are increasingly favored in conservation and potentially offer a range of practical and outcome-based benefits. However, tools for critically assessing whether and how collaboration enhances the attainment of conservation objectives are lagging behind the enthusiasm. We use a framework that considers effectiveness in relation to capacity of key actors and institutions to achieve outcomes and respond to emergent problems, robustness over time (i.e. adapting to changes while still achieving objectives), context-specific drivers of change, and the structure of networks and institutions to assess common approaches for evaluating effectiveness. Network analysis performs well in terms of structure, while action research and the diagnostic method offer deep insights into capacity and context. Scenario planning performs well in understanding robustness and context but performs better when combined with a diagnostic. The evaluation reveals important insights for approaching and standardizing investigations of collaborative governance regimes and their effectiveness.
The poor performance of biodiversity institutions has prompted calls for reform. Adaptive governance has been promoted as a means of supporting improved biodiversity outcomes. However, incorporating adaptive elements into biodiversity governance has been a challenge. In particular, efforts to make institutions more “adaptive” often fail to account for existing capacity and context-specific factors. Clear guidance on how to move from general, ambitious adaptive governance prescriptions to specific, context-dependent recommendations is needed. This paper demonstrates how insights from pragmatism can inform an approach for designing institutional reforms that address current shortcomings in adaptive governance approaches. This design scaffolds reform options on a platform of existing competency and institutional legacy. Informed by the results of a prior institutional diagnosis, reform development followed a three-stage process: defining plausible reform spaces; identifying reform possibilities within these spaces; and elaborating reform options. Two very different landscapes provided the case studies: (1) a highly modified agricultural landscape, where private landholders are responsible for managing biodiversity as a public good; (2) a group of national parks, where the state holds primary responsibility. The reforms in the agricultural landscape build on successful landholder and organizational efforts to self-organize and pursue innovative solutions, while those for the protected area enable greater managerial discretion and address the challenges of working across multiple government jurisdictions. This context-driven approach draws on insights from pragmatism to provide guidance on the design of institutional reforms that meet the demands of adaptive governance in a way that is both systematic and realistic.
The empirical evidence in the papers in this special issue identifies pervasive and difficult cross-scale and cross-level interactions in managing the environment. The complexity of these interactions and the fact that both scholarship and management have only recently begun to address this complexity have provided the impetus for us to present one synthesis of scale and cross-scale dynamics. In doing so, we draw from multiple cases, multiple disciplines, and multiple perspectives. In this synthesis paper, and in the accompanying cases, we hypothesize that the dynamics of cross-scale and cross-level interactions are affected by the interplay between institutions at multiple levels and scales. We suggest that the advent of co-management structures and conscious boundary management that includes knowledge co-production, mediation, translation, and negotiation across scale-related boundaries may facilitate solutions to complex problems that decision makers have historically been unable to solve.
The alpine region around Australia’s highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko, is part of one of the three most at risk ecosystems in Australia from climate change. With higher temperatures and decreased precipitation, snow cover is already declining with even greater reductions predicted in the short to medium term (2020 to 2050). Consequently the distribution of many native plants and animals may contract, while the distribution of weeds and feral animals may expand. Wildfires in the region are also likely to be more frequent and intense.
To contribute to our understanding of how changes in the environment alter plant composition and ecological process, we conducted a series of functional trait analyses of existing composition datasets. We collected trait data in the field for 220 species including canopy height, leaf area, leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area (SLA). Variation in traits among the alpine flora was not related to species distributional ranges. Traits were strongly associated with growth forms, with shrubs often taller than herbs and graminoids, but often had small, tough, long-lasting leaves.
Species traits were combined with relative cover values to calculate community trait weighted means, a commonly used measure of functional diversity. Functional diversity varied with altitude/duration of snow cover. For example, shrubs which are taller with small tough leaves dominated lower altitude summits, while at higher altitude summits, large, soft leaved herbs and graminoids dominated. Late lying snowpatches areas with short growing seasons were dominated by low growing herbs and graminoids with small leaves while areas with longer growing seasons were dominated by herbs and graminoids that were taller and had larger leaves.
Recovery from fire differed among plant communities. The composition and functional diversity of recovering tall alpine herbfield is trending towards that of equivalent unburnt sites, while burnt windswept feldmark was colonised by graminoids and herbs that are often found in tall alpine herbfield species, with limited shrub recovery in the first nine years post fire.
Grazing by feral hares had no effect on composition or functional diversity, while vegetation recovering from cattle grazing showed clear changes in composition and functional diversity even 43 years later. Prioritising management for this high value conservation region, therefore, involves enhancing resilience by minimising existing threats, particularly those from fire, weeds and hard-hooved grazing animals which will be exacerbate by climate change.
Evaluation of management effectiveness in protected areas is increasingly being recognised as a management imperative. Such evaluations facilitate adaptive management to help improve planning processes, provide greater clarity to managers in determining priorities, and support the decision-making process through continuous learning. However, there are considerable challenges in implementing an evaluation program of an entire protected area system: ownership of the evaluation process must occur at all levels of the management agency; a reliable process needs to be developed; a system for information sharing is required; a culture of learning needs to be encouraged and supported; and an appreciation of the range of useful qualitative and quantitative evidence has to be fostered. In NSW, this evaluation process has been established through a State of the Parks program. This article explores some of the key challenges associated with the development of this program and identifies some of the lessons that have been learned.
The fires of January 2003 burnt much of the treeless high mountain country of Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, and were the first extensive conflagration of this area since 1939. For this reason there are remarkably few studies of the response of alpine plants and vegetation to fire. A flora survey of treeless subalpine vegetation in the Kosciuszko area in late 2002 sampled 215 sites. Of the 119 sites that were burnt, 60 were relocated and re-sampled in late 2003 to assess the mode and extent of regeneration in a range of treeless plant communities. Twenty-four species (including 3 exotics) were recorded only in the pre-fire sampling. Fifty species (including 18 exotics) were recorded only in the post-fire sampling. One species, Chenopodium erosum, had not previously been recorded in Kosciuszko National Park, and is believed to be the first native chenopod recorded in alpine vegetation in Australia. There was no significant difference in mean number of species per quadrat between pre-fire and post-fire quadrats. The average number of weeds per quadrat was, however, significantly greater post-fire. Most of this difference was attributable to the significantly greater number of weeds per quadrat in bog vegetation after the fire. Of the 290 species recorded, 111 species regenerated from seed, 197 species regenerated from resprouting organs (roots, tubers and/or basal stems) and 49 species regenerated from both seed and resprouts. Based on the regeneration observed, most plant communities will return naturally to their pre-fire species composition and cover over a period between a few years and a few decades. Major exceptions will be those communities where the 'keystone' species appear to have been lost at least at a local scale. Principal amongst these are bog communities that incorporated significant biomass of Sphagnum cristatum pre-fire, Podocarpus lawrencei shrublands and Celmisia costiniana closed herbfields. Consideration might be given to augmenting their recovery. It will be important to exclude fire from these communities until their recovery is complete.
Based on 1222 floristic quadrat samples, 56 plant communities were identified in treeless vegetation in the Australian Alps of south-eastern Australia. (c. 35º3038ºS, 146°–149°E). The study encompassed vegetation from above the upper limit of trees on mountain tops (i.e. the truly alpine environment) and below the inverted treeline in subalpine valleys. Generally, grasslands develop on deep humus soils, heathlands occur on shallower or rocky soils, and wetland communities are found in places of permanent or intermittent wetness. Duration of snow cover, lithology, altitude and exposure are also important determinants of the spatial arrangement of communities. Broadly, communities within a geographic region are more closely related to each other than to communities of similar structure or dominants from other geographic areas. Many communities are either very localised or are widespread with a small area of occupancy. Fourteen communities are probably eligible for listing as threatened, either alone or as aggregates with associated communities. A total of 710 native taxa from 82 families has been recorded. There is a high level of endemism – 30% of taxa are ± restricted to treeless vegetation in the Australia Alps and a further 14% are ± restricted to treeless vegetation but occur in mountain areas outside the Australian mainland (e.g. Tasmania and New Zealand). Thirteen taxa are listed in the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 as threatened and a further 18 taxa are identified that may be eligible for listing as threatened nationally. 131 non-native taxa have been recorded in natural vegetation. Treeless vegetation has been intensively utilised since European settlement, initially as summer pastures for cattle and sheep but more recently as water catchments for electricity production and as tourist attractions both in winter and summer. Many communities are slowly recovering from past pressures and from the fires of 2003, which burnt most of the area for the first time since 1939. The treeless vegetation of the Australian Alps faces an uncertain future because of increased pressure from tourism and the unknown impacts of global warming.
The sustainability of regional development can be usefully explored through several different lenses. In situations in which uncertainties and change are key features of the ecological landscape and social organization, critical factors for sustainability are resilience, the capacity to cope and adapt, and the conservation of sources of innovation and renewal. However, interventions in social-ecological systems with the aim of altering resilience immediately confront issues of governance. Who decides what should be made resilient to what? For whom is resilience to be managed, and for what purpose? In this paper we draw on the insights from a diverse set of case studies from around the world in which members of the Resilience Alliance have observed or engaged with sustainability problems at regional scales. Our central question is: How do certain attributes of governance function in society to enhance the capacity to manage resilience? Three specific propositions were explored: (1) participation builds trust, and deliberation leads to the shared understanding needed to mobilize and self-organize; (2) polycentric and multilayered institutions improve the fit between knowledge, action, and social-ecological contexts in ways that allow societies to respond more adaptively at appropriate levels; and (3) accountable authorities that also pursue just distributions of benefits and involuntary risks enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups and society as a whole. Some support was found for parts of all three propositions. In exploring the sustainability of regional social-ecological systems, we are usually faced with a set of ecosystem goods and services that interact with a collection of users with different technologies, interests, and levels of power. In this situation in our roles as analysts, facilitators, change agents, or stakeholders, we not only need to ask: The resilience of what, to what? We must also ask: For whom?
The growing number of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally represents an increasing interest in marine conservation and fisheries management and the potential of planned and managed MPA networks as a way of strengthening local management. This study documents the development of MPA networks in the Philippines and identifies critical success factors and issues. Methods were field observation by participation in MPA and fisheries management projects and focused interviews that gathered opinions and observations of primary MPA network stakeholders in the central Visayas region. Findings show that an MPA network is defined through social and ecological criteria. From a social perspective, a network is comprised of people and organizations that manage component MPAs, benefit from the network, and promote the network's viability through shared administrative responsibility and information. To qualify as part of an ecological network, individual MPAs must interact ecologically (e.g., source or sink of larvae and propagating organisms, protection for habitat, and threatened or endangered species) to enhance fisheries and biodiversity conservation. The study found that while social and ecological criteria are shaping MPA networks through science-based planning, integrated management, and coordination, there exist numerous institutional issues related to scaling up to networks from single MPAs. Issues pertain to: limiting access to resources, boundary delineation, monitoring compliance, finding common goals and identity, and conflict resolution. Factors correlated with management success included common institutional processes and legal support, improved understanding of benefits from a network and improved habitat conditions and fishery yields associated with MPAs.
A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change.
As part of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in Biscay, Basque Country, we described scenarios for Biscay through 2050 in an integrated and participatory way by downscaling the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) global scenarios, analyzed how ecosystem services and human well-being might change in a range of plausible futures, identified management strategies for the territory through a backcasting process, and explored the relevance of scenarios to policy making. Our intention was to strengthen the link to policy making and to achieve a real implementation of our research results in ecosystem management policies. We also aimed to provide more insights on how large-scale scenario developments can be translated to the local level. In doing so, we emphasized specific local characteristics and used highly participatory methods focusing on novel elements, such as organizing back-to-back workshops, creating coherent scenarios across scales, using visual elements
to present exploratory scenarios, and combining exploratory scenarios with normative backcasting using a World Café methodology. The outcome scenarios and management proposals are relevant for decision making and planning processes at local scale and at the same time, they are comparable to other assessment scenarios. This local participatory scenario process and tool for landscape planning is already having a policy impact thanks to the involvement of public administration technicians
and policy makers. In the recently renewed strategic policy plan for sustainability of the county, this assessment is considered a high priority. Therefore, for the next steps of the assessment, detailed guidelines for ecosystem management policies are planned.
"We analyze the emergence of an adaptive co-management system for wetland landscape governance in southern Sweden, a process where unconnected management by several actors in the landscape was mobilized, renewed, and reconfigured into ecosystem management within about a decade. Our analysis highlights the social mechanisms behind the transformation toward ecosystem management. The self-organizing process was triggered by perceived threats among members of various local stewardship associations and local government to the area's cultural and ecological values. These threats challenged the development of ecosystem services in the area. We show how one individual, a key leader, played an instrumental role in directing change and transforming governance. The transformation involved three phases: 1) preparing the system for change, 2) seizing a window of opportunity, and 3) building social-ecological resilience of the new desired state. This local policy entrepreneur initiated trust-building dialogue, mobilized social networks with actors across scales, and started processes for coordinating people, information flows and ongoing activities, and for compiling and generating knowledge, understanding, and management practices of ecosystem dynamics. Understanding, collaborative learning, and creating public awareness were part of the process. A comprehensive framework was developed with a shared vision and goals that presented conservation as development, turned problems into possibilities, and contributed to a shift in perception among key actors regarding the values of the wetland landscape. A window of opportunity at the political level opened, which made it possible to transform the governance system toward a trajectory of ecosystem management. The transformation involved establishing a new municipal organization, the Ecomuseum Kristianstads Vattenrike (EKV). This flexible organization serves as a bridge between local actors and governmental bodies and is essential to the adaptive governance of the wetland landscape. It is also critical in navigating the larger sociopolitical and economic environment for resilience of the new social-ecological system. We conclude that social transformation is essential to move from a less desired trajectory to one where the capacity to manage ecosystems sustainably for human well-being is strengthened. Adaptability among actors is needed to reinforce and sustain the desired social-ecological state and make it resilient to future change and unpredictable events."
This article defines social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. This definition highlights social resilience in relation to the concept of ecological resilience which is a characteristic of ecosystems to maintain themselves in the face of disturbance. There is a clear link between social and ecological resilience, particularly for social groups or communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources for their livelihoods. But it is not clear whether resilient ecosystems enable resilient communities in such situations. This article examines whether resilience is a useful characteristic for describing the social and economic situation of social groups and explores potential links between social resilience and ecological resilience. The origins of this interdisciplinary study in human ecology, ecological economics and rural sociology are reviewed, and a study of the impacts of ecological change on a resourcedependent community in contemporary coastal Vietnam in terms of the resilience of its institutions is outlined.
Many conservation plans remain unimplemented, in part because of insufficient consideration of the social processes that influence conservation decisions. Complementing social considerations with an integrated understanding of the ecology of a region can result in a more complete conservation approach. We suggest that linking conservation planning to a social-ecological systems (SES) framework can lead to a more thorough understanding of human-environment interactions and more effective integration of social considerations. By characterizing SES as a set of subsystems, and their interactions with each other and with external factors, the SES framework can improve our understanding of the linkages between social and ecological influences on the environment. Using this framework can help to identify socially and ecologically focused conservation actions that will benefit ecosystems and human communities, and assist in the development of more consistent evidence for evaluating conservation actions by comparing conservation case studies.
Tourism in ski resorts depends on snow cover which is expected to decline with climate change. This paper explores hypotheses about demand side responses to climatic change by analyzing patterns of visitation in recent years with differing snow cover. Snow cover and visitation patterns to six resorts which differ in altitude and size in Victoria, Australia, were compared between a slightly warm and much drier year (2006, +0.6°C and −50% precipitation to longer-term averages) to a more typical year (2007) and to nine earlier years. Snowmaking partly offset declines in natural snow cover in 2006, although there were still fewer days with snow on the ground. The number of visitor days was much lower in 2006 than the previous nine years for the three lowest-altitude resorts (−69%), while it actually increased (+10%) in the highest altitude resort where there were fewer visitors (−17%), but they stayed longer. Snowmaking is already critical for ski resorts in low snow years. With warmer conditions, lower-altitude resorts may not receive enough income due to reduced visitation to offset snowmaking costs, while higher-altitude resorts may have a short-term gain, but become uneconomical in the longer term. -50% 2007 2006 2006-69% 17%10%
Ecosystem-based management (EBM) in the ocean is a relatively new approach, and existing applications are evolving from more
traditional management of portions of ecosystems. Because comprehensive examples of EBM in the marine environment do not yet
exist, we first summarize EBM principles that emerge from the fisheries and marine social and ecological literature. We then
apply those principles to four cases in which large parts of marine ecosystems are being managed, and ask how including additional
components of an EBM approach might improve the prospects for those ecosystems. The case studies provide examples of how additional
elements of EBM approaches, if applied, could improve ecosystem function. In particular, two promising next steps for applying
EBM are to identify management objectives for the ecosystem, including natural and human goals, and to ensure that the governance
structure matches with the scale over which ecosystem elements are measured and managed.
This paper draws on the findings of a study within the ESRC's Democracy and Participation Programme. It explores the processes of participation within deliberative forums – such as user panels, youth forums, area based committees – developed as a means of encouraging a more active, participating mode of citizenship and of improving welfare services by making them more responsive to users. Our findings open up a number of issues about constraints on the development of ‘collaborative governance’. To understand these constraints, we suggest, there is need to locate participation initiatives in the context of government policy, to explore ways in which such policy is interpreted and enacted by strategic actors in local organisations and to examine the perceptions of members of deliberative forums themselves. Our findings highlight the constraints on the ‘political opportunity structures’ created by the enhanced policy focus on public participation, and the consequent limits to ‘collaborative governance’. We discuss how governance theory and social movement theory can each contribute to the analysis, but also suggest productive points of engagement through which each of these bodies of theory might enrich the other.
Although frequently invoked as a rhetorical tool in political discussions, “political will” remains ambiguous as a concept. Acknowledging the centrality of political will to policy outcomes, the authors propose a pragmatic and systematic approach to definition. This approach facilitates analysis by identifying particular shortcomings in political will. This identification in turn permits the application of appropriate theoretical frameworks from various disciplines and the effective construction and use of ameliorative measures. The authors also address fundamental issues like the specification of contexts. The analytical approach includes a conceptual definition dissected into essential components, along with corresponding means of operationalization and targets for assessment. Among the major definitional components are requirements that a sufficient set of decision makers intends to support a particular initiative and that such support is committed. The latter condition is difficult to ascertain, but various signals, influences, and constraints on action are observable.
We explore the social dimension that enables adaptive ecosystem-based management. The review concentrates on experiences of adaptive governance of social-ecological systems during periods of abrupt change (crisis) and investigates social sources of renewal and reorganization. Such governance connects individuals, organi-zations, agencies, and institutions at multiple organizational levels. Key persons provide leadership, trust, vision, meaning, and they help transform management organizations toward a learning environment. Adaptive governance systems often self-organize as social networks with teams and actor groups that draw on various knowledge systems and experiences for the development of a common understanding and policies. The emergence of "bridging organizations" seem to lower the costs of collaboration and conflict resolution, and enabling legislation and governmental policies can support self-organization while framing creativity for adaptive comanagement efforts. A re-silient social-ecological system may make use of crisis as an opportunity to transform into a more desired state.
Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscaleand macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.
Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations, however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few contrasting scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, scenarios should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision-making process. Often, consideration of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participation of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are ( 1 ) increased understanding of key uncertainties, ( 2 ) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and ( 3 ) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.
An architecture of government adaptation programs is presented. Components include leadership, institutional organization,
stakeholder involvement, climate change information, appropriate use of decision analysis techniques, explicit consideration
of barriers to adaptation, funding for adaptation, technology development and diffusion, and adaptation research. This architecture
is a useful heuristic for identifying, evaluating, and reevaluating the needs of decision makers as they improve management
of climate-sensitive resources in a changing environment.
Changes in governance are needed to deal with rapid directional change, adapt to it, shape it, and create opportunities for
positive transformations of social–ecological systems. Throughout this book we stress that human societies and globally interconnected economies are parts of the dynamics of the
biosphere, embedded in its processes, and ultimately dependent on the capacity of the environment to sustain societal development
with essential ecosystem services (Odum 1989, MEA 2005d). This implies that resource management is not just about harvesting
resources or conserving species but concerns stewardship of the very foundation of a prosperous social and economic development,
particularly under conditions of rapid and directional social–ecological change (Table 5.1). We first discussed the integration
of the ecological (see Chapter 2) and social (see Chapters 3 and 4) aspects of ecosystem stewardship in relation to directional
change and resilience in a globally interconnected world (see Chapter 1), emphasizing processes that reduce the likelihood
of passive degradation that might lead to socially undesirable regime shifts. In this chapter we identify ways to enhance
the likelihood of constructive transformative change toward stewardship of dynamic landscapes and seascapes and the ecosystem
services that they generate. Rapid and directional changes provide major challenges but also opportunities for innovation
and prosperous development. Such development requires systems of governance of social–ecological dynamics that maintain and
enhance adaptive capacity for societal progress, while sustaining ecological life-support systems.
Around Australia’s highest mountain lies a rare ecosystem, an alpine area of outstanding beauty and diversity, strikingly different from other alpine ecosystems of the world but with common features. Kosciuszko Alpine Flora describes and illustrates the area’s 212 flowering plants and ferns, of which 21 are endemic. It discusses the geological and human history of the area, the life-forms and habitats of the plants, and explores the various plant communities and their environmental relationships. The book contains identification keys, detailed descriptions, and distribution and habitat notes for each species. Superb colour photographs show details of flowers, fruit, foliage, and ecology. Finalist Scholarly Reference section - The Australian Awards for Excellence in Educational Publishing 2001
Although climate change models project that communities in southern Europe may be exposed to increasing drought in coming years, relatively little is known about how socioeconomic factors will exacerbate or reduce this problem. We assess how socioeconomic and policy changes have affected drought vulnerability in the Alentejo region of southern Portugal, where EU agricultural policy and the construction of a major dam have resulted in a shift from a land-extensive mixed agricultural system to the intensive production of irrigated grapes and olives. Following a dynamic systems approach, we use both published socioeconomic data and stakeholder interviews to present a narrative account of how this transition has increased the region’s vulnerability to drought. To explore the assumptions made in the narrative, and to present different possible future scenarios, we create a dynamic systems model, the results of which suggest that socioeconomic drivers will play a more important role than projected rainfall changes in increasing vulnerability in the future.
The botanical composition and structure of wetland vegetation from seven sites
in the alpine and subalpine tracts of the Bogong High Plains was sampled in
1995 and 1996. Sites were in the vicinity of Mts Nelse, Cope and Fainter.
Sampling was based on contiguous 1-m2 quadrats along
transects 20−70 m long across each wetland. Samples were ordinated using
non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS). Floristic variation was assessed
both within selected individual wetlands, and between wetlands from different
regions. The relationship between the ordinations and environmental variables
such as soil surface texture, soil depth and the amount of bare ground was
tested by fitting vectors. Three dominant vegetation assemblages were
identified. Closed heath, of hygrophyllous, scleromorphic shrubs such as
Richea continentis and
Baeckea gunniana, the rush
Empodisma minus and the moss
Sphagnum cristatum occurred on the deeper peats. Low
open heath of Epacris glacialis and
Danthonia nivicola occurred on shallow peats. Herbfields
of Caltha introloba and
Oreobolus pumilio occurred on stony pavements in two
different physiographic situations―on relatively steep slopes
(10−20°) at the head of wetlands, and on flat ground (slope <
2°), below the head of wetlands. The pavements on the steeper sites
appeared to be associated with periglacial features such as solifluction lobes
and terraces. Those on the flatter ground appeared to have been derived more
recently. Wetlands in the Mt Cope region consisted of closed heath, low open
heath and pavement herbfield in various proportions. Wetlands on Mt Fainter,
which are subject to heavy trampling by cattle, were in a degraded condition,
with a low cover of major hygrophyllous mosses and shrubs, and a high cover of
introduced species. Long-ungrazed wetlands in a 50-year exclosure at Rocky
Valley had high cover of closed heath, no pavements, numerous ponds and
virtually no entrenched drainage channels or exposed peat. The
Caltha herbfields are significant features nationally,
both floristically and geomorphologically. Alpine and subalpine wetlands have
been listed under the Victorian Flora and
Fauna Guarantee Act 1988, and continued grazing by
cattle is not compatible with the conservation objectives for this alpine
vegetation type.
This paper investigates the implementation of governance for sustainable landscapes, based on a catchment case study in lowland England. A participatory research process, spanning six and a half years, employed formal and informal in-depth interviews, focus group work and workshop techniques with 71 stakeholders representative of a wide range of interests in the catchment. A scenario design process within a GIS framework was used as a focus for capturing the key issues and visions of the stakeholders. Two contrasting but plausible scenarios for 2020 emerged from this process; one scenario was driven by the sustainable intensification of agricultural production and world trade, the other by the enhanced protection of ecosystem services and multi-objective land use. It was clear from discussions with stakeholders that the mechanisms for delivering an integrated approach to landscape management are not currently in place, although there have been some policy successes that could be built upon. There is also a need for new approaches to land tenure which include tax incentives and improved forms of cooperation and leadership in both policy and contiguous landscape stewardship. The methodology itself was appreciated by the stakeholders who found it useful to think more holistically. In addition, the study demonstrates an approach that individual practitioners and researchers can develop the skills to implement.
The floristic composition and structure of peatland vegetation in adjoining subalpine catchments of the Bogong High Plains ( north-eastern Victoria) were monitored between 1979 and 2006. Grazing by cattle had been excluded from one catchment since 1946, when it was fenced. Peatland vegetation in both catchments was partially burnt in a wild. re in 2003. Between 1979 and 1999, in the ungrazed peatland, the cover of Sphagnum cristatum Hampe and Baeckea gunniana Schauer increased and the cover of pools decreased, whereas in the grazed peatland the cover of B. gunniana and Epacris paludosa R. Br. decreased and the cover of Empodisma minus ( Hook. f.) L. A. S. Johnson & D. F. Cutler increased. The cover of all recorded species decreased following a. re in 2003. Between 2004 and 2006, a significant increase in cover was detected in two of eight species measured in burnt areas. In burnt areas, the number of native species per quadrat increased in the grazed peatland and the numbers of exotic species per quadrat increased in both peatlands over that period. By 2006, the peatlands had largely recovered floristically from the 2003. res but it is likely to be decades before the cover of S. cristatum and Richea continentis B. L. Burtt. reaches pre-fire levels. Control of several exotic species that established after the. re ( especially Salix cinerea L. and Juncus spp.) may be required.
Within the high subalpine tract of the Bogong High Plains there has been a gradual increase in the cover
of shrubs over the past 40 years, especially within open heathland and grassland communities. A field
trial, using permanent 1 m2 plots, has confirmed that the establishment of shrub seedlings such as
Asterolasia trymalioides, Grevillea australis, Phebalium squamulosum and Prostanthera cuneata occurs
primarily upon bare ground, and is absent where the cover of vegetation or fixed Poa hiemata litter
remains intact. The survival of Poa hiemata seedlings on bare ground is low, except where local shelter
is afforded. Disturbances which cause bare ground, including domestic cattle activity, can create
microsites suitable for the establishment of shrub seedlings. Shrub establishment and development may
be inhibited by cattle trampling, and some palatable shrubs, e.g. Asterolasia and Grevillea, are especially
affected. If cattle are removed from previously grazed grassland and heathland sites where shrubs such
as Asterolasia and Grevillea have established, the encroachment of such shrubs will be more rapid than
on similar sites subject to continued grazing. However, continued cattle activity is unlikely to inhibit
the development of non-palatable, vegetatively reproducing shrubs such as Prostanthera cuneata and
Phebalium squamulosum within closed heath communities.
The fires of summer 2003 in south-eastern Australia burnt tens of thousands of hectares of treeless alpine landscape. Here, we examine the environmental impact of these fires, using data from the Bogong High Plains area of Victoria, and the Snowy Mountains region of New South Wales. Historical and biophysical evidence suggests that in Australian alpine environments, extensive fires occur only in periods of extended regional drought, and when severe local fire weather coincides with multiple ignitions in the surrounding montane forests. Dendrochronological evidence indicates that large fires have occurred approximately every 50100 years over the past 400 years. Post-fire monitoring of vegetation in grasslands and heathlands indicates that most alpine species regenerate rapidly after fire, with >90% of species present 1 year after fire. Some keystone species in some plant communities, however, had not regenerated after 3 years. The responses of alpine fauna to the 2003 fires were variable. The core habitat (closed heathland) of several vulnerable small mammals was extensively burnt. Some mammals experienced substantial falls in populations, others experienced substantial increases. Unburnt patches of vegetation are critical to faunal recovery from fire. There was, however, no evidence of local extinction. We conclude that infrequent extensive fires are a feature of alpine Australia. For both the flora and fauna, there is no quantitative evidence that the 2003 fires were an ecological disaster, and we conclude that the flora and fauna of alpine Australia are highly resilient to infrequent, large, intense fires.
This paper contributes to the emerging debate on participatory modelling at the core of adaptive action research. We compare and reflect upon lessons learned from two projects in very different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, the UK and Nicaragua, and outline a shared theoretical and methodological framework to assist researchers and local stakeholders to jointly assess, monitor and adapt to climatic and other changes. We discuss opportunities and obstacles, specifically: (1) incorporating uncertainty and surprises; (2) combining epistemologies; (3) dealing with representativeness and power dynamics; (4) creating opportunities for improving stakeholders' agency; and (5) facilitating dialogue and negotiation by using models as heuristics. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of dealing with unavoidable trade-offs when engaging in participatory and interdisciplinary research in complex and uncertain decision-making contexts. The participatory modelling experiences show that stakeholders' involvement throughout the process, epistemological plurality, flexibility and sensitivity to context-dependent socio-cultural processes need to be considered by researchers who wish to enhance the adaptive capacity of the communities they work with. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
Conventional approaches to natural resource management are increasingly challenged by environmental problems that are embedded in highly complex systems with profound uncertainties. These so-called social-ecological systems (SESs) are characterized by strong links between the social and the ecological system and multiple interactions across spatial and temporal scales. New approaches are needed to manage those tightly coupled systems; however, basic understanding of their non-linear behavior is still missing. Modeling is a traditional tool in natural resource management to study complex, dynamic systems. There is a long tradition of SES modeling, but the approach is now being more widely recognized in other fields, such as ecological and economic modeling, where issues such as non-linear ecological dynamics and complex human-decision making are receiving more attention. SES modeling is maturing as a discipline in its own right, incorporating ideas from other interdisciplinary fields such as resilience or complex systems research. In this paper we provide an overview of the emergence and state of the art of this cross-cutting field. Our analysis reveals the substantial potential of SES models to address issues that are of utmost importance for managing complex human-environment relationships, such as: i) the implications of ecological and social structure for resource management; ii) uncertainty in natural and social systems and ways to address it; iii) the role of co-evolutionary processes in the dynamics of SESs; and iv) the implications of micro-scale human decision making for sustainable resource management and conservation. The complexity of SESs and the lack of a common analytical framework, however, also pose significant challenges for this emerging field. There are clear research needs with respect to: i) approaches that go beyond rather simple specifications of human decision making; ii) development of coping strategies to deal with (irreducible) uncertainties; and iii) more explicit modeling of feedbacks between the social and ecological systems and iv) a conceptual and methodological framework for analyzing and modeling SESs. We provide ideas for tackling some of these challenges and indicate potential key focal areas for SES modeling in the future.
Scenario planning was used to identify issues and drivers of change that are relevant to community efforts to improve regional prospects in the Western Australian Wheatbelt. The region, some 20 million hectares in area, is under pressure to respond to a variety of environmental ( salinity, erosion, acidification, biodiversity decline), economic ( declining agricultural terms of trade), and social forces ( rural decline, isolation). Regional strategic plans have been increasingly seen as the means of achieving sustainability in the face of these challenges, but until recently typically had single-activity outlook and timeframes of up to a decade into the future. Systematic futures-based research has been used in various regions to avoid reliance on business-as-usual as the default strategy, and to identify opportunities and challenges not presently apparent. The Avon River Basin, the central region of the Wheatbelt, was selected as the geographic focus of the project, and the time horizon was set at 2050. The project was developed by a group of 50 stakeholders from the basin, with expertise and strategic interests across a wide range of economic, social, and environmental themes. Through a series of workshops the stakeholders identified critical issues and their attendant drivers, then documented relevant past trends. Four regional scenarios, Saline Growth, Grain and Drain, Landcare Bounty, and Harmony with Prosperity, were developed based on positive and negative combinations of 2 clusters of uncertain and important drivers: environmental change and access to new markets. Common opportunities, threats, and critical success factors for the Avon River Basin region out to 2050 were also identified. We also found that the stakeholders have a tendency to strive for positive outcomes despite negative initial conditions. This resulted in 4 scenarios that were superficially similar due to the regional scale of analysis and the continuation of agricultural industries as significant shapers of economy, society, and environment. However, each scenario represents profoundly different outcomes for the residents and communities of the Avon River Basin in 2050. The triple-bottom line outcomes for the Avon River Basin in 2050 were estimated to be in the range 4.9 - 9.7 Mt of wheat ( currently 4.0), 46 000 - 66 000 people ( currently 43 000), and 10 - 30% of farmland salinised ( currently 6). The application of these results to other regions in Australia is discussed.
Conservation practitioners and academics have highlighted leadership as an
important component for conservation programs, but the attributes of effective
leaders are not yet clearly defined. We identify a leadership approach that enables
a conservation organization to be more effective in achieving positive results.
An analysis of successful and unsuccessful species conservation programs
consistently reveals contrasting leadership approaches. Successful approaches
resonate strongly with both the characteristics of species conservation and established
leadership theory in mainstream management literature. We describe
the practices identified in successful species conservation programs to provide
the basis for a new understanding of conservation leadership using established
management theory. The traits of a successful conservation leader include: an
ability to share a clear, long-term vision; orientation toward “hands-on” management;
an ability to switch thinking between the big picture and the detail;
and a willingness to encourage learning, improvement, and receptiveness to
alternative solutions. Activities in the conservation sector are typically influenced
by factors beyond the control of managers. Conversely, a leadership approach
is under managers’ direct control and has an impact on attainment of
results. Effective leadership is one factor that should not be left to chance but
should be considered seriously for its impact on achievement in biodiversity
conservation.
Summary The Southern Corroboree Frog (Pseudophryne corroboree) is one of Australia's most critically endangered frog species. The species occurs entirely within Kosciuszko National Park, which has a history of cattle grazing (up to the 1970s). A consequence of cattle grazing has been a significant reduction in the extent of montane and sub-alpine peat-bog systems that the species uses as breeding habitat. Furthermore, climate change and associated increased wildfire frequency is expected to further reduce the extent and quality of peat bogs throughout the Australian Alps. In this study, we investigated habitat selection for breeding pools and nest sites within peat-bog systems in order to inform the conservation management of the species and guide other management practices being undertaken in peat bogs where this species occurs. Occupancy of breeding males at bog pools was found to be positively associated with increasing pool area, water depth and mid-day temperature, and negatively associated with extent of bare substrate. The majority of breeding pools identified were ephemeral. Nest sites within vegetation where males call and where females deposit their eggs were located at mid-elevations in a range of vegetation types, with the majority of nests being within moss and sedge dominated by Sphagnum cristatum and Empodisma minor. We also found that male nest sites were not randomly distributed within the edges of pools, but were more often located in areas of loose vegetation. These results highlight the potential sensitivity of the Southern Corroboree Frog to predicted changes in peat-bog systems resulting from climate change such as earlier drying and a possible reduction in the size of bog pools. A monitoring programme focused on key features of the breeding habitat should be undertaken to provide a basis for developing and assessing management actions implemented in peat bogs occupied by this species.
This paper describes the dynamic nature of leadership processes that are initiated and driven by emergent leaders known as ‘champions’. The research involved a multiple case study method to examine typical champion-driven leadership processes in six urban water management agencies. The analysis indicated that these leadership processes evolved through three distinct phases characterized by different forms of leadership, involved many leaders, and were strongly affected by context. The research produced a new, three-phase conceptual model of champion-driven leadership. This model is used to explain the way in which the transformational, distributed and complexity models of leadership are relevant to different dimensions of champion-driven leadership processes as they evolve. The model is also used to explain why some champions are more effective than others. The paper concludes by describing ways organizations can enable champion-driven leadership processes to overcome complex challenges, such as delivering more sustainable water services within modern cities.
Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development.
To navigate social-ecological change, individuals and societies must develop the capacity to adapt and transform our interactions
with ecosystems and ecosystem services. Institutions and multi-level governance arrangements are particularly important in
this regard as they can support as well as constrain knowledge building, learning and conflict resolution that may help to
reduce vulnerability, build resilience and increase adaptive capacity. However, building adaptive capacity into governance
is a daunting challenge. Here, we synthesize the insights of this volume and offer lessons for practice and further research.
These lessons include the need to: (1) define and understand social-ecological change; (2) avoid panaceas; (3) recognize relational
spaces and the role of institutions; (4) consider the influence of scale; (5) link actors and networks of actors; (6) rethink
the role of government; (7) benefit from bridging organizations; (8) promote knowledge co-production and learning processes;
(9) highlight the role of ecosystems; and (10) ensure integrative approaches.
Governance and institutions are critical determinants of adaptive capacity and resilience. Yet the make-up and relationships between governance components and mechanisms that may or may not contribute to adaptive capacity remain relatively unexplored empirically. This paper builds on previous research focusing on integrated water resources management in Brazil to ‘unpack’ water governance mechanisms that may shape the adaptive capacity of water systems to climatic change. We construct a river basin index to characterize governance approaches in 18 Brazilian river basins, apply a reliability test to assess the validity of these governance indicators, and use in-depth qualitative data collected in a subsample of the basins to explore the relationship between the governance indicators and adaptive capacity. The analysis suggests a positive relationship between integrated water governance mechanisms and adaptive capacity. In addition, we carry out a cluster analysis to group the basins into types of governance approaches and further unveil potential relationships between the governance variables and overall adaptive capacities. The cluster analysis indicates that tensions and tradeoffs may exist between some of the variables, especially with equality of decision making and knowledge availability; a finding that has implications for decision makers aiming to build adaptive capacity and resilience through governance and institutional means.
The Wet Tropics of North Queensland are characterised by a mixture of natural and agricultural landscapes that exist side-by-side. The need for greater protection of the Great Barrier Reef, a declining sugar industry and increasing pressures to subdivide agricultural land for urban expansion provide great challenges for the people in the Wet Tropics, but also for planners, natural resource managers and policy makers. To create pathways for planning sustainable landscapes in the Wet Tropics, a social–ecological framework has been developed and evaluated using two case studies. The aim of this paper is to describe the rationale for developing this social–ecological framework and its three stages. We also describe a range of participatory tools for engaging local people (including farmers, industry representatives, interest groups, indigenous people, and decision-makers) throughout the planning process. Evidence from the case studies suggests that the inclusion of the social dimension of landscape, and the participatory activities that are an integral part of the framework, provide opportunities for social learning and capacity building. These activities in essence contribute to the development of sustainable future landscapes.
This article uses a systemic perspective to identify and analyze the conceptual relations among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within socio-ecological systems (SES). Since different intellectual traditions use the terms in different, sometimes incompatible, ways, they emerge as strongly related but unclear in the precise nature of their relationships. A set of diagnostic questions is proposed regarding the specification of the terms to develop a shared conceptual framework for the natural and social dimensions of global change. Also, development of a general theory of change in SESs is suggested as an important agenda item for research on global change.