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A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition: Fig. 1.
Abstract
Prospection-the ability to represent what might happen in the future-is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior.
... In this paper, we propose to address this problem using anticipatory thinking [4][5][6][7]. If the agent is able to foresee that its program will not succeed, it can either stop wasting energy on it and give up or try to find alternative options. ...
... With the environment and agent models, we can predict the future using simulation [5]. The function f models that simulation: Given a state s and a natural number t, f(s, t) is the state of the environment t steps ahead. ...
... The clone decides and executes actions in the same way as the original agent (similar process), of course with their actions being simulated. Simulation is a type of prediction tool proposed in [5]. Another difference in the matrix is that the clone is not able to foresee the future. ...
This paper investigates how predictions about the future behaviour of an agent can be exploited to improve its decision-making in the present. Future states are foreseen by a simulation technique, which is based on models of both the environment and the agent. Although the environment model is usually taken into account for prediction in artificial intelligence (e.g., in automated planning), the agent model receives less attention. We leverage the agent model to speed up the simulation and as a source of alternative decisions. Our proposal bases the agent model on the practical knowledge the developer has given to the agent, especially in the case of BDI agents. This knowledge is thus exploited in the proposed future-concerned reasoning mechanisms. We present a prototype implementation of our approach as well as the results from its evaluation on static and dynamic environments. This allows us to better understand the relation between the improvement in agent decisions and the quality of the knowledge provided by the developer.
... Szpunar et al. [22] proposed a similar continuum of prospective representations that vary in both abstractness and personal relevance (figure 1c). At one end are episodic representations, such as imagining an event involving the self at a specific point in the future. ...
... Moreover, the semantic pole is demarcated from the rest of the continuum by its non-personal or 'general' nature 3 (e.g. [22,23]). Finally, while specific event representations (and to a lesser extent, repeated events) comprise predominantly perceptual and spatiotemporal detail, semantic representations are more abstracted and symbolic. ...
... (b) Self-Memory System[20,21]. (c) Taxonomy of Prospective Thinking[22]. (d) Episodicsemantic continuum including personal semantics[23]. ...
Tulving’s concept of mental time travel (MTT), and the related distinction of episodic and semantic memory, have been highly influential contributions to memory research, resulting in a wealth of findings and a deeper understanding of the neurocognitive correlates of memory and future thinking. Many models have conceptualized episodic and semantic representations as existing on a continuum that can help to account for various hybrid forms. Nevertheless, in most theories, MTT remains distinctly associated with episodic representations. In this article, we review existing models of memory and future thinking, and critically evaluate whether episodic representations are distinct from other types of explicit representations, including whether MTT as a neurocognitive capacity is uniquely episodic. We conclude by proposing a new framework, the Multidimensional Model of Mental Representations (MMMR), which can parsimoniously account for the range of past, present and future representations the human mind is capable of creating.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Elements of episodic memory: lessons from 40 years of research’.
... Episodic future-thinking, in particular, involves mentally projecting the self forward in time to pre-experience personal events [1]. A proposed taxonomy of episodic future-thinking suggests four modes: simulation, prediction, intention and planning [2]. Moving through these modes may bring an individual closer to engaging in behaviour with the future in mind. ...
... In response to this prediction, I intend to pack appropriate clothing for my trip, and, when packing, I plan for the rainy weather by packing my raincoat and rainboots in my suitcase. Planning is often necessary when carrying out intended behaviours because it involves converting a goal into 'actionable' steps [2]. Indeed, contemplating future events is argued to be adaptive precisely because it allows us to take action now to address possible futures [3][4][5][6]. ...
... We derived four themes which we describe below and summarize in table 1. Six instances (five statements and one action) were unclassified because they did not fit any theme. Instances in this theme resemble the 'intention' mode of thinking in adults [2], in which future goals or wants are expressed. Interestingly, 52 of the 98 instances (53%) were requests for the parent to give or do something, which may reflect children's reliance on parental permission or support to fulfil their intentions. ...
Children’s episodic future-thinking is typically assessed using experimental tasks that measure whether children select an item with future utility. Although these tasks—inspired by Tulving’s seminal ‘spoon test’ (Tulving E. 2005 Episodic memory and autonoesis: uniquely human? In The missing link in cognition: origins of self-reflective consciousness [eds HS Terrace, J Metcalfe], pp. 3–56. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. [doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195161564.001.0001])—are passed around age 4, they tell us little about the functional significance of children’s episodic future-thinking in their day-to-day lives. We highlight how a naturalistic approach can shed light on this issue, and present a small study where we recruited mothers to report on their children’s (N = 12, 3- and 4-year-olds and 6- and 7-year-olds) future-thinking over a 7-day period. We used a thematic analysis to understand why children express future thoughts and derived the following themes: (1) expressing future desires and/or intentions, (2) future-oriented information-seeking, (3) connecting present actions with future outcomes, and (4) predicting future mental/physiological states. We compare these themes with recent accounts of the functional significance of future-thinking in adults and conclude that children largely express their future-thinking verbally to request information or support from their parent—likely because they do not yet possess enough control/autonomy to independently act for their own future. Our findings both complement and extend an experimental approach and further elucidate the functional significance of mental time travel in children.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Elements of episodic memory: lessons from 40 years of research’.
... The research linking prospection to emotional disturbance is predominantly concerned with depression, anxiety, and suicidality, and the bulk of the research discussed here relates to those kinds of emotional difficulties. Szpunar et al. (2014) have proposed a helpful taxonomy with four different modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. Simulation is the construction of hypothetical future events, usually in a detailed, episodic way. ...
... Intention refers to what is more commonly called goal setting, and planning is the identification of steps necessary to bring a goal about. The different modes are not mutually exclusive (Szpunar et al., 2014). For example, someone might simulate an outcome to make a prediction about how they would feel about the simulated event if it happened or might think about the steps that they would need to take to make a decision about whether a particular goal was worth adopting. ...
General Audience Summary
When people experience emotional disturbance, such as when they feel anxious or depressed, this is usually accompanied by changes in how they think about the future. For example, people can have difficulty thinking about specific, future events, and this may be especially the case for positive experiences in the case of people who are depressed, whereas people feeling anxious might be preoccupied with future negative experiences. These difficulties in thinking about the future may in turn perpetuate negative feelings. What underlies people’s beliefs about what is going to happen in their future? There is evidence that people tend to think through a sequence of steps leading to events in the future rather than such thoughts just being a matter of imagination. Appreciating how people construct these sequences is therefore an important step in understanding how those who are anxious or depressed think about the future the way they do. Because the future is inherently uncertain, much of future-directed thought is not that specific or detailed and concerns more general aspects, such as wanting to be a better parent, or looking forward to traveling more, or being worried about one’s health declining. Researchers tend to know more about how people think about specific events but less about these broader, but personally important thoughts. It would be useful to devote more attention to understanding the basis of these general thoughts and how important they are for well-being. By understanding more about the psychology underlying future-directed thinking, researchers should be able to suggest ways to help think about the future in helpful rather than harmful ways.
... Cognitive processes enable us to model past actions, imagine possible futures, and enact change to create better futures (Suddendorf & Corballis, 2007;Szpunar et al., 2014;Trope & Liberman, 2010). Thinking about the distant-future has been shown to decrease the attitude-intention gap relative to taking a nearfuture temporal perspective (Rabinovich et al., 2010), showing the importance of world-making beliefs, attitudes, and expectations as antecedents to world-making actions. ...
... We referred to AI as a group, following Smith et al. (2021), given that people already treat AI as an outgroup similar to human outgroups. Further, asking people to forecast about the future likely activates abstract mental representations of AI as a group following research on future thinking (Agerström & Björklund, 2013;D'Argembeau & Van der Linden, 2007;Förster et al., 2004;Szpunar et al., 2014) rather than concrete representations of a specific AI system like Siri or Alexa. We loosely categorized the forecasts as being about the treatment of future sentient AI and AI social issues. ...
The ways people imagine possible futures with artificial intelligence (AI) affects future world‐making—how the future is produced through cultural propagation, design, engineering, policy, and social interaction—yet there has been little empirical study of everyday people's expectations for AI futures. We addressed this by analysing two waves (2021 and 2023) of USA nationally representative data from the Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey on the public's forecasts about an imagined future world with widespread AI sentience (total N = 2401). Average responses to six forecasts (exploiting AI labour, treating AI cruelly, using AI research subjects, AI welfare, AI rights advocacy, AI unhappiness reduction) showed mixed expectations for humanity's future with AI. Regressions of these forecasts on demographics such as age, the year the data was collected, individual psychological differences (the tendency to anthropomorphise, mind perception, techno‐animist beliefs), and attitudes towards current AI (perceived threat and policy support) found significant effects on all forecasts from mind perception, anthropomorphism, and political orientation, and on five forecasts from techno‐animism. The realized future that comes to pass will depend on these dynamic social psychological factors, consequent changes in expectations, and how those expectations shape acts of world‐making.
... Thinking about the future is typical behavior in humans, from ancient times, when people prepared for life-threatening events, to the present day, when we plan our everyday activities. Researchers have proposed a framework of future thinking that includes four modes: simulating a detailed future scenario, predicting the consequences and possible reactions to events, encoding future intentions, and planning steps to achieve future goals (Szpunar, Spreng, and Schacter 2014). Moreover, future thinking is relatively frequent and positivity-biased in our daily lives (Barsics, Van der Linden, and D'Argembeau 2016); for instance, many individuals exhibit an overly optimistic outlook on their personal future. ...
... The findings of this study in Chinese adults are consistent with an earlier study involving Australian participants (Hallford and D'Argembeau 2021), which suggested that future thinking mainly serves directive-type functions, such as goal setting, problem solving, planning, and decision making. Likewise, several studies have shown similar results, suggesting that the primary function of future thinking is to simulate current and potential scenarios, formulate intentions, and make future decisions (Branch and Zickar 2020;Schacter, Benoit, and Szpunar 2017;Szpunar, Spreng, and Schacter 2014). Notably, the study revealed that Chinese adults express different frequencies in the key functions of future thinking than their Australian counterparts. ...
Future thinking, mentally projecting oneself into future events, scenarios, and circumstances, is common in everyday life. However, no scale has been developed to explore the functions of future thinking in China. This study aimed to validate the Chinese version of the functions of future thinking scale (FoFTS). Based on a sample of 578 Chinese residents, confirmatory factor analysis results indicated that the 10‐factor structure of the Chinese version of FoFTS fit well. The reliability indexes across 10 factors were in an acceptable range. Acceptable convergent validity was reported considering its association with time perspective, future self‐continuity, emotion regulation, and intertemporal decision‐making. Additionally, the effect of age and the severity of emotional states on FoFTS were found. Overall, the Chinese FoFTS is a reliable and valid tool for examining the diverse purposes and roles of future thinking among Chinese adults, thereby enhancing the cross‐cultural study of purposes for future thinking.
... It enables us to mentally simulate future events, possibilities, and scenarios, thus playing a critical role in decision-making and motivation by allowing for the anticipation of outcomes, goal setting, and action planning [1][2][3]. This cognitive ability not only allows us to imagine our personal futures but also to contemplate the future society or world state [4], thus providing a way to think about and work towards more desirable collective futures, which is crucial in today's world where we are confronted with significant challenges to planetary health [5,6]. ...
... Although these conceptualisations were introduced separately and under different theoretical frameworks, they all refer to the same form of prospection, which we refer to as 'collective positive prospection', involving the mental simulation of alternative societies deviating positively from the status quo. This form of prospection differs from autobiographical future-oriented thinking, such as episodic future thoughts [15], and leans towards a semantic form of prospection [4], focusing on mental representations of society's or the world's general states, specifically those envisioning positive, sustainable alternatives. Since their introduction, utopian thinking [10], transformative utopian impulse for planetary health [12] and environmental cognitive alternatives [14] have rarely been compared or studied together. ...
In a world facing significant planetary health challenges, the power of prospection—our capacity to envision and shape future possibilities—gains importance. Recently, three conceptualisations have been introduced to measure individuals’ inclination and ability to imagine desirable societal alternatives: utopian, transformative utopian impulse for planetary health, and environmental cognitive alternatives. We propose that these constructs, founded on different theoretical bases, each offer unique perspectives on a common process: the mental simulation of societies that positively deviate from the status quo, which we refer to as collective positive prospection. Data from a correlational survey (N = 485) show that these dimensions, while distinct, are highly interrelated, supporting their potential complementarity for understanding individual differences in collective positive prospection. Results also emphasise the importance of integrating these diverse dimensions to enhance the prediction of intentions, particularly pro-environmental intentions. Furthermore, our results suggest that the precision of prospection content, alongside its compatibility with behaviours, enhances predictive accuracy. Although preliminary, these findings provide valuable insights on both theoretical and practical levels, highlighting the importance of integrating diverse conceptualizations to better understand the functioning of collective positive prospection and suggesting that an integrative scale could be beneficial for future research in this area.
... Broadly speaking, future orientation represents the human capacity and tendency to represent what might happen in the future (Szpunar et al., 2014). Studies have illustrated the relevance of future orientation for understanding individuals' behaviour and attitudes, both for individual issues (such as health or academic achievement) and collective issues. ...
... A growing literature has identified a positive effect of future orientation--that is, the human capacity and tendency to represent what might happen in the future (Szpunar et al., 2014)--on engagement towards the environment (e.g., Bruderer Enzler, 2015;Milfont & Demarque, 2015;Milfont et al., 2012;Strathman et al., 1994). However, some questions remain regarding the scales commonly used to assess future orientation. ...
Futures Consciousness (FC) refers to the capacity to understand, anticipate, and prepare for the future. A form of future orientation, it encompasses five interrelated dimensions of time perspective, agency beliefs, openness to alternatives, systems perception, and concern for others. We present here cross-sectional evidence that FC is related to greater environmental engagement, above and beyond other future orientation constructs. In two preregistered studies (one convenience student sample and one representative sample; N = 1,041), we found that respondents with higher Futures Consciousness reported greater proenvironmental behaviour (consumption behaviour, land stewardship, social environmentalism, and environmental citizenship). FC proved a better predictor of proenvironmental behaviour than the Zimbardo Inventory’s future time perspective and the Consideration for Future Consequences scale (Study 1). FC was also related to stronger biospheric values (Study 2). However, it was not significantly related to personal environmental footprint (derived from a 16-item calculator). Strikingly, the environmental footprint was also unrelated to the proenvironmental behaviour scale, which could point to a lack of correspondence between measures of proenvironmental propensity and impact. We discuss implications for future-thinking research and interventions aiming to improve Futures Consciousness.
... Episodic simulation refers to the capacity to construct detailed mental representations of possible specific events within one's personal future [1]. Episodic simulation is posited to serve an adaptive purpose whereby it forms the foundation for other facets of prospection, such as the expectancies one holds about whether future events are likely to occur and whether one will achieve one's personal goals [2]. Arguably, the usefulness of episodic simulations depends on the ease with which they come to mind and the extent to which they contain vivid episodic details [3,4]; in which case, training to promote effective episodic simulation could serve as a mechanism by which other aspects of prospection, such as future expectancies and intentions, can be modified. ...
... Thus, we provide crucial evidence that the effects of PST are not only evident in the overtly stated, explicit, expectancies that one reports about future events but that they do, to some extent, extend to the automatic beliefs one holds about the future. This further supports the theoretical notion that episodic simulation serves an adaptive purpose whereby it forms the foundation for other facets of prospection, in this case the expectancies one holds about whether future events are likely to occur [2]. ...
Previous research demonstrating that positive episodic simulation enhances future expectancies has relied on explicit expectancy measures. The current study investigated the effects of episodic simulation on implicit expectancies. Using the Future Thinking Implicit Relational Assessment Procedure (FT-IRAP), participants made true/false decisions to indicate whether or not they expected positive/negative outcomes after adopting orientations consistent or inconsistent with an optimistic disposition. The outcome measure, DIRAP, was based on response time differences between consistent and inconsistent blocks. Participants then engaged in either positive simulation training, in which they imagined positive future events, or a neutral visualisation task before repeating the FT-IRAP twice following 10-minute intervals. Positive simulation training increased DIRAP scores for don’t-expect-negative trials–boosting participants’ readiness to affirm that negative events were unlikely to happen to them. Although findings did not generalise across all trial types, they show potential for positive simulation training to enhance implicit future expectancies.
... Leading a fulfilling and secure life requires consistent thinking about the future. The engagement in episodic foresight is a routine mental activity (Barsics et al., 2016;D'Argembeau et al., 2011;Seligman et al., 2013;Szpunar et al., 2014), which serves multiple purposes, such as making plans, setting objectives, and evaluating potential risks, rewards, or anticipated emotions (Barsics et al., 2016;Blackwell, 2020a;D'Argembeau et al., 2011). Prospection is also an integral part of decision making under uncertainty, given that the long-term outcomes, both tangible and emotional, of real-life choices are not immediately evident (Beach, 1993;Johnson et al., 2023;Nanay, 2016;Zaleskiewicz et al., 2023). ...
... Problem solving fundamentally relies on the capacity to mentally simulate different courses of action to assess their likelihood of success (Szpunar, Spreng, & Schacter, 2014). By constructing a mental representation of a situation and virtually experiencing it through sensory, emotional, and cognitive dimensions, mental simulations allow individuals to anticipate outcomes, strategize, and prepare for various possibilities (Galinsky, Ku, & Wang, 2005;Parker, Atkins, & Axtell, 2008). ...
Complex problem-solving requires cognitive flexibility--the capacity to entertain multiple perspectives while preserving their distinctiveness. This flexibility replicates the "wisdom of crowds" within a single individual, allowing them to "think with many minds." While mental simulation enables imagined deliberation, cognitive constraints limit its effectiveness. We propose synthetic deliberation, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based method that simulates discourse between agents embodying diverse perspectives, as a solution. Using a custom GPT-based model, we showcase its benefits: concurrent processing of multiple viewpoints without cognitive degradation, parallel exploration of perspectives, and precise control over viewpoint synthesis. By externalizing the deliberative process and distributing cognitive labor between parallel search and integration, synthetic deliberation transcends mental simulation's limitations. This approach shows promise for strategic planning, policymaking, and conflict resolution.
... One specific facet of this ability-episodic memory-involves the recollection of personally experienced past events [2], whereas the mental representation of future events is referred to as prospection [3]. Prospection serves as an umbrella term encompassing a wide range of futureoriented cognitive phenomena, including affective forecasting, autobiographical planning, episodic simulation, prospective memory, and temporal discounting [4]. The present study investigates one form of prospection-episodic future thinking (EFT)-which refers to the ability to project oneself forward in time to pre-experience a future scenario [5]. ...
Episodic Future Thinking (EFT) refers to the cognitive ability to mentally simulate specific and vivid autobiographical future events. While EFT serves several adaptive functions in healthy populations, a small, but growing body of literature has begun to probe impairments in EFT linked to psychopathology. The present research sought to examine whether these deficits extend from temporary (i.e., state anxiety) to lasting (i.e., trait anxiety, depression) forms of internalizing symptomatology, and how these impairments relate to perceived success and emotional valence when imagining novel future tasks. This relationship was examined across two studies, where participants envisioned detailed episodic scenarios for seven novel future tasks and subsequently rated each scenario on perceived task success and valence. Internalizing symptoms were assessed using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck Depression Inventory. Findings revealed a significant negative relationship between perceived task success, state anxiety, and depression, consistent across both an initial investigation and replication. These results suggest that individuals with higher levels of internalizing symptoms may have a tendency to adopt a more negative outlook when envisioning themselves performing future tasks, potentially contributing to the maintenance and exacerbation of symptoms. These novel findings provide further support for differences in future-oriented cognitive patterns associated with anxiety and depression, as well as demonstrate a need for the development of targeted interventions aimed at modifying negative future thinking in affected populations.
... Individuals become oriented toward future in that duration of life where future aims become highly comprehensive, and adolescents at pre stage begin emphasizing on goals related to academic and occupational aspects, connecting them to the real world (Arnett, 2000). Future-oriented thinking is a broad construct which consider the various cognitive capabilities to generate future thoughts and project oneself into a variety of hypothetical scenarios in the future (Szpunar, 2014). ...
Aim of the Study: The purpose to conduct this present research work was to understand the impact of different styles of parenting on motivation in academics and future orientation among students of university level. Methodology: Current study is quantitative. Sample was consisted of 400 university students of age ranging from 18-27 who’s both parents were alive. Current study consisted of two phases. Pilot study (N=50) was conducted to establish the psychometric properties of instruments. Results of pilot study gave satisfactory results. In main study 350 university students were included. Parenting style scale (PSS), Academic Motivation Scale (AMS) and Future Time Perspective (FTP) was used as research instrument. Findings: Results indicated that authoritative parenting has significant positive relation with academic motivation and future orientation as compare to other styles of parenting. It was found that academic motivation and future orientation has significant positive relationship. Results revealed that women have high academic motivation and were found to be more oriented towards future. Another finding was that students from high family income have high academic motivation and future orientation. Conclusion: It was concluded that authoritative parenting leads to high academic motivation and future orientation.
... As such, they present an "opportunity to think creatively about the space of alternative representations" (Levinthal 2011(Levinthal , p. 1519. Considering how strategists may think creatively about multiple possible representations suggests the need for further theorization of the role of strategists' intentions and imagination as two types of prospective cognition that are central in future-oriented thinking (Szpunar et al. 2014). ...
We theorize why and how strategists develop different types of theories when confronted with different types of problems by combining knowledge and imagination in different ways. We propose that strategists’ epistemic stances affect how they combine knowledge and imagination and whether they develop either analytic theories, or constructive theories of two types: reconfigurative and projective. We theorize how imagination complements knowledge in theory development to generate distinctive strategies and strategic advantages. We argue that analytic theories enable conjectural anticipation, which contributes to early timing of strategic actions; that reconfigurative theories posit novel value dimensions and enable industry shaping; and that projective theories articulate novel possibilities to shape desired and desirable futures. Our ideas advance research on how imagination is leveraged in theory development, future-oriented strategizing, and shaping strategies.
... Additionally, both future orientation and prospection involve future-oriented thinking. However, future orientation focuses more on the degree to which an individual's thoughts and behaviors are directed toward the future (Gjesme, 1979), whereas prospection refers to the cognitive ability to represent possible future events mentally (Szpunar et al., 2014). ...
Search interest in the upcoming year compared with the past has been proposed as the Future Orientation Index (FOI) to assess forward-looking tendencies. Our study aimed to replicate and extend correlations between the FOI and key development indicators, such as GDP and Human Development Index (HDI), across countries with different dominant search engines (from Google to Baidu), time periods (from 2012 to 2021), and measurement levels (inter-country, intra-country, and individual). Our results successfully replicated the correlation between the Baidu-based FOI and province-level GDP (r = .719-.860, ps < .001) and HDI (r = .635-.867, ps < .001) from 2012 to 2021 in China. However, the FOI could not predict patience (β = −.038, p = .402) measured at an individual level. Our findings provide an easily accessible index to investigate intra-cultural differences in future orientation and underscored two prerequisites for the FOI: 1) the selection of a locally dominant search engine and unambiguous keywords and 2) the application of the FOI within a group-level context.
... FC among the MF and VA (left temporal pole), BG (hippocampus), and posterior FPN and CBL (including within this region) was also observed in this study. The temporal pole boosts intentional and unintentional mind wandering, especially distal episodic simulation (regarding autobiographical future events) (Meyer et al., 2019;Szpunar et al., 2014). The hippocampus participates in episodic memory encoding, mental time travel, and fictitious mental scene construction in mind wandering (Faber & Mills, 2018;Karapanagiotidis et al., 2017;McCormick et al., 2018). ...
... Episodic future thinking (EFT), the ability to mentally project oneself into the future and pre-experience events, plays an important role in daily lives (Szpunar et al., 2014). The process of imagining the context, details, thoughts and emotions that may be experienced in future events has adaptive functions. ...
Background
Episodic future thinking (EFT) has important functions in people’s daily life and was found to be impaired in patients with psychiatric diseases. Studies have been carried out to improve EFT, while results were mixed. The present study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to examine the overall effect of intervention on EFT, and potential moderators.
Methods
A literature search was performed in the PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and EBSCO databases to identify relevant studies that were published up to June 18, 2024. Controlled intervention studies, pre-post studies, and case series studies were included. We focused on studies recruiting participants aged 16 or higher.
Results
A total of 30 studies involving 1881 participants were included. Results showed that most of the included studies used cognitive intervention. Intervention improved overall EFT, with a medium to large effect size [SMD = 0.61, 95% CI (0.49, 0.72), I² = 57.16%]. The effect was still significant at follow-up, with a near medium effect size [SMD = 0.46, 95% CI (0.19, 0.72), I² = 58.16%]. Moderator and meta-regression analyses showed that length of training (p = 0.775), type of participants (p = 0.798), and mean age of participants (p = 0.826) were not associated with the intervention effect.
Conclusions
The present meta-analysis indicates that cognitive intervention had a positive effect on EFT, and the improvements could be maintained at follow-up. But no significant moderators were found. Further studies are needed to identify more effective and individualized interventions to improve EFT.
... As a type of negatively-valenced, future-oriented cognition, worry can be viewed as a form of emotional future simulation. Consider how future simulation ranges on various phenomenological scales: from episodic to semantic, positive to negative, and concrete to abstract (D'Argembeau et al. 2011;Szpunar et al. 2014a). We can characterize worry as simulation at the extreme ends of these scales-it is typically semantic, negative, and abstract (Borkovec et al. 1998;Stöber 1998). ...
LeDoux’s work on the emotional brain has had broad impact in neuroscience and psychology. Here, we discuss an aspect of the emotional brain that we have examined in our laboratory during the past two decades: emotional future simulations or constructed mental representations of positive and negative future experiences. Specifically, we consider research concerning (i) neural correlates of emotional future simulations, (ii) how emotional future simulations impact subsequent cognition and memory, (iii) the role of emotional future simulations in worry and anxiety, and (iv) individual differences in emotional future simulation related to narcissistic grandiosity. The intersection of emotion and future simulation is closely linked to some of LeDoux’s primary scientific concerns.
... Recent work on future event simulation (Szpunar et al., 2014) and spontaneous cognition (Berntsen, 2019;Cole & Kvavilashvili, 2019) has shown that these are each highly varied mental phenomena that account for a considerable portion of human cognitive activity. Prior work on spontaneous nonmemory phenomena has hinted at the presence of approximal simulations in the context of healthy and disordered cognition (Brewin et al., 2010;Çili & Stopa, 2022;Krans et al., 2015;Oulton et al., 2018); however, no prior study has made a distinction between simulations of the approximal and distal future. ...
In the course of daily life, various events—such as driving in suboptimal weather conditions, going on a first date, or walking home alone at night—evoke cognitions about what might happen next in the context of ongoing experience. Nonetheless, little is currently known about the phenomenological experience of anticipating events that might occur next—or what we refer to as simulation of the approximal future. We present novel evidence from a retrospective survey, a diary study, and an experimental laboratory study indicating that people commonly experience simulations of the approximal future, and that simulations of the approximal future can be reliably distinguished, in terms of their valence and function, from simulations of future events that are expected to occur in spatiotemporal contexts that are distinct from ongoing experience. Simulation of the approximal future represents an understudied mental experience that carries important implications for understanding the nature of constructive perceptual and memory-based processes as they pertain to event cognition, threat detection, individual differences, and psychopathology.
... Solving problems, imagining solutions and planning through time and outside the immediate sensory context operate across a range of cognitive domains, such as mental representation of a temporally distant event and the ability to buffer current sensorial input in favor of a delayed or imagined goal (Kabadayi & Osvath, 2017). Such mental simulations represent the capacity to envision future desires and organize current action accordingly (Gärdenfors & Osvath, 2010, Spreng & Grady, 2010, Szpunar et al., 2014. The main difference between immediate planning and mental simulation or prospective cognition is that immediate planning depends on current needs and desires, while prospective cognition presumes the capacity to predict future desires and to plan for them . ...
In a series of papers, we have argued that causal cognition has coevolved with the use of various tools. Animals use tools, but only as extensions of their own bodies, while humans use tools that act at a distance in space and time. This means that we must learn new types of causal mappings between causes and effects. The aim of this article is to account for what is required for such learning of causal relations. Following a proposal by Grush and Springle, we argue that learning of inverse mappings from effects to causes is central. Learning such mappings also involves constraints based on monotonicity, continuity and convexity. In order for causal thinking to extend beyond space and time, mental simulations are required that predict the effects of actions. More advanced forms of causal reasoning involve more complicated forms of simulations.
... Episodic future thinking, or episodic simulation, refers to the ability to project oneself into the future within specific scenarios, often recruiting mental imagery (Schacter et al., 2017). Functional accounts propose that this ability is crucial for a range of skills, including planning, problem solving and emotional regulation (Szpunar et al., 2014). While future thinking is thought to emerge early on in childhood (Steinberg et al., 2009), adolescence is arguably a key stage for its development. ...
Background
Future events can spring to mind unbidden in the form of involuntary mental images also known as ‘flashforwards’, which are deemed important for understanding and treating emotional distress. However, there has been little exploration of this form of imagery in youth, and even less so in those with high psychopathology vulnerabilities (e.g. due to developmental differences associated with neurodiversity or maltreatment).
Aims
We aimed to test whether flashforwards are heightened (e.g. more frequent and emotional) in autistic and maltreatment-exposed adolescents relative to typically developing adolescents. We also explored their associations with anxiety/depression symptoms.
Method
A survey including measures of flashforward imagery and mental health was completed by a group of adolescents ( n =87) aged 10–16 (and one of their caregivers) who met one of the following criteria: (i) had a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder; (ii) a history of maltreatment; or (ii) no autism/maltreatment.
Results
Flashforwards (i) were often of positive events and related to career, education and/or learning; with phenomenological properties (e.g. frequency and emotionality) that were (ii) not significantly different between groups; but nevertheless (iii) associated with symptoms of anxiety across groups (particularly for imagery emotionality), even after accounting for general trait (non-future) imagery vividness.
Conclusions
As a modifiable cognitive risk factor, flashforward imagery warrants further consideration for understanding and improving mental health in young people. This implication may extend to range of developmental backgrounds, including autism and maltreatment.
... It has been proposed that episodic memory primarily enhances future planning, as episodic memory lacks immediate adaptive value (Klein and Nichols, 2012;Szpunar et al., 2014). Future imagination and planning harness the same brain regions as episodic memory recall (Mullally and Maguire, 2014), and damage to episodic recall is almost always accompanied by deficits in future planning (Conway et al., 2016). ...
Episodic memory, the ability to recall specific events and experiences, is a cornerstone of human cognition with profound clinical implications. While animal studies have provided valuable insights into the neuronal underpinnings of episodic memory, research has largely relied on a limited subset of tasks that model only some aspects of episodic memory. In this narrative review, we provide an overview of rodent episodic-like memory tasks that expand the methodological repertoire and diversify the approaches used in episodic-like memory research. These tasks assess various aspects of human episodic memory, such as integrated what–where–when or what–where memory , source memory, free recall, temporal binding, and threshold retrieval dynamics. We review each task’s general principle and consider whether alternative non-episodic mechanisms can account for the observed behavior. While our list of tasks is not exhaustive, we hope it will guide researchers in selecting models that align with their specific research objectives, leading to novel advancements and a more comprehensive understanding of mechanisms underlying specific aspects of episodic memory.
... Episodic future thinking (FT) represents a form of "hot" cognition that involves simulating the future often recruiting mental imagery (Schacter et al., 2017), a representational format with privileged links to emotions (Ji et al., 2019). FT has been theorised to be central for planning, problem solving, identity formation, social bonding, and emotional regulation (Akbari et al., 2023;Szpunar et al., 2014), functional domains often affected in autistic and maltreatment-exposed individuals (McKenzie & Dallos, 2017;Moran, 2010). Empirically, simulation of personal future episodes has been associated with improved action planning , modulation in stress and worry (Brown et al., 2002), increased motivation to enact planned behaviours (Ji et al., 2021), better problem-solving (Jing et al., 2019), and accessing of personal knowledge (D'Argembeau & Mathy, 2011). ...
Maltreatment and autism can be associated with overlapping difficulties across functional domains (e.g., social, emotional, and sensory) and high rates of mental health problems. A cognitive approach focussing on affect-laden cognition, here on episodic future thinking (FT), could help inform cognitive assessments and adapt psychological interventions. Three groups of adolescents ( N = 85), (i) maltreatment ( n = 28), (ii) autism ( n = 29), and (iii) typical development without maltreatment/autism (TD; n = 28), matched in age (10–16 years old), sex (assigned at birth), and socioeconomic status, completed a newly adapted online Autobiographical Future Thinking Test. As predicted, the maltreatment group generated significantly fewer specific future events relative to the TD group, however, the number of specific future events did not significantly differ between the autism and the other groups. Exploratory analyses showed that lower FT specificity was significantly associated with more depressive (but not anxiety) symptoms across the three groups. These findings shed light on the cognitive profiles of both maltreatment and autism during adolescence and signal FT as a potential therapeutic target for adolescents with these developmental differences. Our study lays the foundation for additional comparisons of maltreatment-related presentations versus autism with improved designs and a broader set of cognitive and clinical domains.
... It is also important to recognise that task specific conditions can impact on the areas of the brain affected by visualisation processes (Bellana, Liu, Diamond, Grady & Moscovitch, 2017;Schacter, Benoit & Szpunar, 2017;Szpunar, Spreng & Schacter, 2014;) and can involve several areas of the brain (Pearson, 2019). The parts of the brain associated with future thinking can also be associated with remembering past events (Schacter, Addis & Buckner, 2008) which means that the simple identification of a particular area of the brain is not necessarily an indication of the presence of visioning an inspirational future. ...
We provide a critical review of a foundational article in neuroscience (Boyatzis & Jack, 2018) which set out to provide the neuroscientific foundations of Coaching to the PEA, a coaching model. Our critique questions the validity of the underpinning neuroscientific research; the appropriateness of selectively stimulating specified brain networks; the problematic positioning of the coach working with the brain; the rhetorical effects and paradigmatic challenges of integrating neuroscientific findings alongside other sources of knowledge; the risk of reductionism and of generalising findings from limited empirical research. Our critique questions how far neuroscience can be applied in coaching.
... Bardzo istotna jest także zdolność przewidywania swoich przyszłych osiągnięć związana z formułowaniem odległych celów i tworzeniem planów ich realizacji. Tę zdolność przewidywania swoich osiągnięć można by uznać za zdolność do tworzenia wizji własnego dorosłego życia, gdyż tworzenie tej symulacji własnej przyszłości bazuje właśnie na dokonywaniu predykcji (Szpunar, Spreng, Schacter, 2014). Według Eriksona (1997; poszukiwanie odpowiedzi na pytanie: "kim będę?" jest ściśle połączone z drugim z kluczowych pytań tożsamościowych: "kim jestem?". ...
... Bardzo istotna jest także zdolność przewidywania swoich przyszłych osiągnięć związana z formułowaniem odległych celów i tworzeniem planów ich realizacji. Tę zdolność przewidywania swoich osiągnięć można by uznać za zdolność do tworzenia wizji własnego dorosłego życia, gdyż tworzenie tej symulacji własnej przyszłości bazuje właśnie na dokonywaniu predykcji (Szpunar, Spreng, Schacter, 2014). Według Eriksona (1997; poszukiwanie odpowiedzi na pytanie: "kim będę?" jest ściśle połączone z drugim z kluczowych pytań tożsamościowych: "kim jestem?". ...
... 2. predicción, esto es, la estimación de la probabilidad de ocurrencia de un evento futuro. 3. intención, el acto mental de establecer una meta u objetivo, y 4. planificación: identificación y organización de pasos para arribar a un estado, evento o resultado futuro (Szpunar et al., 2014). Nos centraremos en este apartado en los procesos de planificación, por ser una clase de procesos compleja, que en ocasiones presupone que los demás procesos (simulación, predicción e intención) tengan lugar, pero, adicionalmente, por encontrarse importantemente documentado en primates (C. ...
La cognición orientada a futuro, el conjunto de procesos cognitivos que incorporan implícita o explícitamente consideraciones de estados futuros, es un tópico que ha adquirido creciente interés en los estudios de cognición animal. Mediante el análisis de literatura sobre aprendizaje asociativo y estudios en etología, justificaremos la atribución de cognición prospectiva a distintas especies, distinguiendo dos formas no excluyentes de cognición orientada a futuro, por una parte, la planificación, y por otra el timing: la capacidad cognitiva de adaptar el comportamiento frente a las regularidades temporales del entorno. Aplicaremos esta distinción al trabajo llevado a cabo por Frans de Waal en chimpancés.
... The purpose of executive functioning is prospection -to experience the future (Gilbert and Wilson, 2007). Prospection has a four-part taxonomy: prediction, intention, simulation, and planning; it's the process of elaborating scenarios forward in time based on constructive episodic memory and perception (Gallistel, 2017;Schacter et al. 2017;Szpunar et al. 2014). ...
Universities are communities that are rooted in a tradition of passing on knowledge, exploratory thinking, and exchanging ideas through language, based on acceptance of viewpoint diversity. This work climate is protected by principles of academic freedom granted by the EU. Recently, signs that academic freedom is being suppressed are showing across the globe; professors in Australia, Canada, India, Sweden, and the USA have been warned or fired because they exercised their freedom of speech. In Finland, a researcher contacted a local newspaper to reveal suppression of freedom of speech at one faculty. Several questions emerge: (1) Why do academic managers suppress researchers freedom of speech? (2) Is this suppression of academic freedom of speech a new thing? (3) What factors have influenced the work climate in this direction? Modern thinking was shaped by evolution and by the many changes in the environment and the diet: social cognition, executive functions,constructive memory, and prospection - a four-part taxonomy: prediction, intention, simulation, and planning, that allows elaborating scenarios. The Milesian School of thinkers and the University of Bologna were founded as communities. Later, during the renaissance, the Copernicus model of heliocentrism was promoted by Galileo Galiei (1564 – 1642), but was met by resistance. The tractate was banned, and Galileo was sentenced to house arrest. In the early 1990s the university management changed with the advent of New public management. Instead of the traditions that emerged from Aesthetics, philosophy, and science, a more business oriented way of running universities was applied. Between 2016 to the present, university professors have been warned, fired and sent alarm about the deteriorating work climate. The way forward is to apply the principles which saw the emergence of the Milesian School of thinkers and the university of Bologna: assignment of learning goals, and decentralization of decision making to attain that goal to the level of operation.
Keywords: Academic bullying, Leadership, Management, decentralization, university work climate, heterodoxy.
... In the following, we will use the term "affective EFT" for the process of putting oneself in an upcoming situation and preexperiencing an upcoming affect or a concrete emotion. Thus, affective EFT differs from affective forecasting in two respects: with regard to the mode of future thinking (simulation vs. prediction) and in terms of the specificity of its form (episodic vs. semantic), following the taxonomy of Szpunar et al. (2014). First, affective forecasting denotes the prediction of the valence, intensity, and duration of upcoming affects, whereas affective EFT is a mental simulation of an upcoming affective experience that is embedded in several other contextual details of the future event. ...
Envisioning the future and how you may feel (affective episodic future thinking [EFT]) helps adults to act in favor for their future self, according to manifold experiments. The current study tested whether and how affective EFT also helps children to behave more proactively, that is, to self-initially prepare for an upcoming event. Five-year-old (N = 90) children (data collected from 2021 to 2022) were instructed to mentally imagine how they would feel after successfully managing an upcoming test (positive affective EFT), how they would feel after failing to do so (negative affective EFT), or they were reminded of an upcoming test without a prompt to imagine (control condition, random assignment). Proactive behavior was indicated by children’s choice to play one of three games before the actual test (one of the games was announced to be the test game). Mechanisms (e.g., motivation to win, psychological distance, current affect) and moderators (ability of episodically thinking about the future in everyday life, behavioral inhibition, and behavioral approach) for the possible effects of affective EFT were explored. Children in the negative affective EFT condition chose the target game significantly above chance level and more often than children in the control group, whereas children in the positive affective EFT condition did not. This effect was independent of the assumed mediators and moderators. Findings are discussed in the context of the theoretical and empirical literature on affective EFT in adults and suggestions for future studies are given.
This article is a call for joint action between psychologists and futurists. The main aim is to raise awareness about the cognitive correlates of foresight. Knowledge of these, often overlooked in futures studies, can increase control over individual and group dynamics and enable the emergence of alternative future visions. The different emphasis of psychology and futures studies on thinking about the future is described. Details about how and why the creative process, memory, biases and emotions are important and impact foresight performance are discussed, highlighting open research questions. In conclusion, avenues for potential collaboration between these fields are suggested.
Experimental studies of animal episodic memory test the behavioural expression of a what-where-when ‘memory content’. This is to say, autobiographical memory in some species (mainly birds, rodents, and great apes) has been understood on the basis of how the subject’s actions demonstrate their long-term awareness of already enacted and yet-to-be enacted scenarios. However, such behavioural focus has come at the expense of discussing the interdependent role of two equally important episodic hallmarks: ‘memory structure’ (mental representations), and ‘memory flexibility’ (adaptive choice-making). This paper provides a semiotic characterization of those less discussed hallmarks, in terms of the Peircean concept of virtual habit or the mental enactment of non-present episodes. It is argued that the behavioural expression of a ‘memory content’ (as object in a process of semiosis) cannot be accounted for without understanding the phenomenological or experiential support of memory structure (as a representamen), and the teleological or purposeful self-control of memory flexibility (as interpretant). Based on this, a new cognitive model of animal episodic memory is proposed, consisting of interrelated modalities called Virtualiter, Habitualiter, and Actualiter. Capitalizing on multispecies evidence, possible applications and new directions of the model are suggested.
Purpose
This study aims to explore the relationship between experience layoffs and employees’ work engagement. Drawing on the psychological contract theory, we examine the parallel mediating role of cognitive and affective job insecurity, along with the moderating role of perceived organisational support.
Design/methodology/approach
The hypotheses were tested based on data collected from 737 employees of companies in various industries in China in an online survey.
Findings
The results showed the significant effect of experiencing layoffs on employees’ work engagement through cognitive and affective job insecurity, and the effect was stronger when perceived organisational support was lower. The moderated mediation effect mainly occurred through affective job insecurity but not cognitive job insecurity.
Originality/value
This study deepens the understanding of the mechanism of the negative effect of experiencing layoffs and the boundaries of its impact from a psychological contract breach perspective. By analysing the mediating role of cognitive and affective job insecurity, we have enhanced our understanding of the exchange-based mechanism of employees after experiencing layoffs. By examining the moderating role of perceived organisational support, we reveal the important role of supportive behaviours of organisations in mitigating the negative effects of experiencing layoffs.
Preschool children often have problems in remembering to carry out a planned behaviour. This study investigated the impact of napping on episodic foresight (planning for future events) and prospective memory (remembering to perform an action in the future) in 2–3‐year‐old children. In a quasi‐experimental design, we compared children who napped (nap condition, n = 20) after receiving information about an upcoming problem (episodic foresight task) and a delayed intention (prospective memory task) with those who stayed awake (wake condition, n = 43). We hypothesised that napping would improve performance in the episodic foresight and the prospective memory tasks. Contrary to the hypothesis, napping did not significantly affect children's episodic foresight or prospective memory performance, even after controlling for the group difference in age. Task performance was primarily explained by memory effects and age. Further research that incorporates stricter controls and evaluates pre‐nap memory strength is necessary fully to elucidate the complex interplay between napping, age, episodic foresight, and prospective memory performance in young children.
Our longitudinal study aimed to investigate relationships between identity development and the vision of one’s adult life (VOAL) in emerging adults. In the first measurement, 299 emerging adults aged 17 to 27 participated, and 177 participated in the second measurement (9-10 months later). Participants were asked to complete the Dimensions of Identity. Development Scale and write about their envisioned future adult life. Written answers about the VOAL were coded by trained judges to allow for quantitative analyses. The results indicated that both identity exploration and commitment were related to the structure of the emerging adults’ VOAL and their subjective attitudes toward the possessed VOAL but in different ways. We also observed that changes in identity processes over time turned out to be related to changes in the VOAL. Our results suggest the presence of a reciprocal relationship between identity development and thinking about the future in emerging adults.
How is the information-processing architecture of the human brain organised, and how does its organisation support consciousness? Here, we combine network science and a rigorous information-theoretic notion of synergy to delineate a ‘synergistic global workspace’, comprising gateway regions that gather synergistic information from specialised modules across the human brain. This information is then integrated within the workspace and widely distributed via broadcaster regions. Through functional MRI analysis, we show that gateway regions of the synergistic workspace correspond to the human brain’s default mode network, whereas broadcasters coincide with the executive control network. We find that loss of consciousness due to general anaesthesia or disorders of consciousness corresponds to diminished ability of the synergistic workspace to integrate information, which is restored upon recovery. Thus, loss of consciousness coincides with a breakdown of information integration within the synergistic workspace of the human brain. This work contributes to conceptual and empirical reconciliation between two prominent scientific theories of consciousness, the Global Neuronal Workspace and Integrated Information Theory, while also advancing our understanding of how the human brain supports consciousness through the synergistic integration of information.
The global transition toward sustainable energy sources has prompted a surge in the integration of renewable energy systems (RES) into existing power grids. To improve the efficiency, reliability, and economic viability of these systems, the synergistic application of artificial intelligence (AI) methods has emerged as a promising avenue. This study presents a comprehensive review of the current state of research at the intersection of renewable energy and AI, highlighting key methodologies, challenges, and achievements. It covers a spectrum of AI utilizations in optimizing different facets of RES, including resource assessment, energy forecasting, system monitoring, control strategies, and grid integration. Machine learning algorithms, neural networks, and optimization techniques are explored for their role in complex data sets, enhancing predictive capabilities, and dynamically adapting RES. Furthermore, the study discusses the challenges faced in the implementation of AI in RES, such as data variability, model interpretability, and real-time adaptability. The potential benefits of overcoming these challenges include increased energy yield, reduced operational costs, and improved grid stability. The review concludes with an exploration of prospects and emerging trends in the field. Anticipated advancements in AI, such as explainable AI, reinforcement learning, and edge computing, are discussed in the context of their potential impact on optimizing RES. Additionally, the paper envisions the integration of AI-driven solutions into smart grids, decentralized energy systems, and the development of autonomous energy management systems. This investigation provides important insights into the current landscape of AI applications in RES.
A central goal of neuroscience is to understand how the brain orchestrates information from multiple input streams into a unified conscious experience. Here, we address two fundamental questions: how is the human information-processing architecture functionally organised, and how does its organisation support consciousness? We combine network science and a rigorous information-theoretic notion of synergy to delineate a “synergistic global workspace”, comprising gateway regions that gather synergistic information from specialised modules across the brain. This information is then integrated within the workspace and widely distributed via broadcaster regions. Through functional MRI analysis, we show that gateway regions of the synergistic workspace correspond to the brain’s default mode network, whereas broadcasters coincide with the executive control network. Demonstrating the empirical relevance of our proposed architecture for neural information processing, we show that loss of consciousness due to general anaesthesia or disorders of consciousness corresponds to a diminished ability of the synergistic workspace to integrate information, which is restored upon recovery. Thus, loss of consciousness coincides with a breakdown of information integration within the synergistic workspace of the human brain. This work contributes to conceptual and empirical reconciliation between two prominent scientific theories of consciousness, the Global Neuronal Workspace and Integrated Information Theory. Taken together, this work provides a new perspective on the role of prominent resting-state networks within the human information-processing architecture, while also advancing our understanding of how the human brain supports consciousness through the synergistic integration of information.
Introduction
Little research has been done on how people mentally simulate future suicidal thoughts and urges, a process we term suicidal prospection .
Methods
Participants were 94 adults with recent suicidal thoughts. Participants completed a 42‐day real‐time monitoring study and then a follow‐up survey 28 days later. Each night, participants provided predictions for the severity of their suicidal thoughts the next day and ratings of the severity of suicidal thoughts over the past day. We measured three aspects of suicidal prospection: predicted levels of desire to kill self, urge to kill self, and intent to kill self. We generated prediction errors by subtracting participants' predictions of the severity of their suicidal thoughts from their experienced severity.
Results
Participants tended to overestimate (although the average magnitude was small and the modal error was zero) the severity of their future suicidal thoughts. The best fitting models suggested that participants used both their current suicidal thinking and previous predictions of their suicidal thinking to generate predictions of their future suicidal thinking. Finally, the average severity of predicted future suicidal thoughts predicted the number of days participants thought about suicide during the follow‐up period.
Conclusions
This study highlights prospection as a psychological process to better understand suicidal thoughts and behaviors.
A central goal of neuroscience is to understand how the brain orchestrates information from multiple input streams into a unified conscious experience. Here, we address two fundamental questions: how is the human information-processing architecture functionally organised, and how does its organisation support consciousness? We combine network science and a rigorous information-theoretic notion of synergy to delineate a “synergistic global workspace”, comprising gateway regions that gather synergistic information from specialised modules across the brain. This information is then integrated within the workspace and widely distributed via broadcaster regions. Through functional MRI analysis, we show that gateway regions of the synergistic workspace correspond to the brain’s default mode network, whereas broadcasters coincide with the executive control network. Demonstrating the empirical relevance of our proposed architecture for neural information processing, we show that loss of consciousness due to general anaesthesia or disorders of consciousness corresponds to a diminished ability of the synergistic workspace to integrate information, which is restored upon recovery. Thus, loss of consciousness coincides with a breakdown of information integration within the synergistic workspace of the human brain. This work contributes to conceptual and empirical reconciliation between two prominent scientific theories of consciousness, the Global Neuronal Workspace and Integrated Information Theory. Taken together, this work provides a new perspective on the role of prominent resting-state networks within the human information-processing architecture, while also advancing our understanding of how the human brain supports consciousness through the synergistic integration of information.
Future-oriented thinking or prospective thinking is the ability to travel mentally toward the future, to imagine or simulate events that may or may not occur in the future (Bubić & Abraham, Review of Psychology, 21, 3–15, 2014). The creativity connection is related to the original meaning of “Creation” that is “the action of causing to exist” or “a coming into being” (Gare, The Palgrave Encyclopedia of the Possible, Palgrave, 2022). This chapter aims at describing the central role of creativity in the creation of future-oriented scenarios. The first section briefly introduces different sets of futures, describes the processes involved in thinking about the future, addresses the “creativity connection” through the methods that are used in future studies and the cognitive processes involved in creative and future-oriented thinking. The second section discusses some applications of future-oriented thinking in which creativity has been used for the long-term common good that could make the planet a better place. The third section addresses the recent use of emergent technologies to promote creative future-oriented thinking. Finally, we conclude by linking future-oriented thinking to transformational creativity, as it supports this type of creativity.
Two forms of thinking about the future are distinguished: expectations versus fantasies. Positive expectations (judging a desired future as likely) predicted high effort and successful performance, but the reverse was true for positive fantasies (experiencing one's thoughts and mental images about a desired future positively). Participants were graduates looking for a job (Study 1), students with a crush on a peer of the opposite sex (Study 2), undergraduates anticipating an exam (Study 3), and patients undergoing hip-replacement surgery (Study 4). Effort and performance were measured weeks or months (up to 2 years) after expectations and fantasies had been assessed. Implications for the self-regulation of effort and performance are discussed.
Many organizations do strategic planning in order to prepare for the future. The real value of strategic planning is not primarily in the final plan, but more in the intellectual journey that the participants take in exploring the future. This often sensitizes them to future possibilities that they had not been aware of. It also helps them prepare to shape that future. Over the past 10 years, the author has facilitated strategic planning efforts in two large (4,000 to 20,000 people) organizations, three small (25 to 100 people) organizations, and started teaching strategic planning. This paper will draw on the experiences from all of these strategic planning efforts, while focusing on the approach that one non-profit R&D organization used to take this intellectual journey. The research methodology is based on a strategic planning approach that calls for development of a core purpose, values, Big Hairy Audacious Goal (BHAG), and envisioned future. For a particular organization, a key element of the envisioned future was to "make critical contributions to critical challenges". Immediately this raised the question of how one measures this element. The author and a co-worker developed an approach that involved interviewing knowledgeable people inside and outside of the organization. They were asked to rate the organization's technical work on a grid and explain the basis for their grading. The narrative that accompanied the grading was very rich in feedback to the organization. The difference between the internal and external evaluations, in a few cases, served to focus the leadership group on several key strategic questions.
Research dealing with various aspects of* the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1985,
1987) is reviewed, and some unresolved issues are discussed. In broad terms, the theory is
found to be well supported by empirical evidence. Intentions to perform behaviors of different
kinds can be predicted with high accuracy from attitudes toward the behavior, subjective
norms, and perceived behavioral control; and these intentions, together with perceptions of
behavioral control, account for considerable variance in actual behavior. Attitudes, subjective
norms, and perceived behavioral control are shown to be related to appropriate sets of salient
behavioral, normative, and control beliefs about the behavior, but the exact nature of these
relations is still uncertain. Expectancy value formulations are found to be only partly
successful in dealing with these relations. Optimal rescaling of expectancy and value
measures is offered as a means of dealing with measurement limitations. Finally, inclusion of
past behavior in the prediction equation is shown to provide a means of testing the theory*s
sufficiency, another issue that remains unresolved. The limited available evidence concerning
this question shows that the theory is predicting behavior quite well in comparison to the
ceiling imposed by behavioral reliability.
An event memory is a mental construction of a scene recalled as a single occurrence. It therefore requires the hippocampus and ventral visual stream needed for all scene construction. The construction need not come with a sense of reliving or be made by a participant in the event, and it can be a summary of occurrences from more than one encoding. The mental construction, or physical rendering, of any scene must be done from a specific location and time; this introduces a "self" located in space and time, which is a necessary, but need not be a sufficient, condition for a sense of reliving. We base our theory on scene construction rather than reliving because this allows the integration of many literatures and because there is more accumulated knowledge about scene construction's phenomenology, behavior, and neural basis. Event memory differs from episodic memory in that it does not conflate the independent dimensions of whether or not a memory is relived, is about the self, is recalled voluntarily, or is based on a single encoding with whether it is recalled as a single occurrence of a scene. Thus, we argue that event memory provides a clearer contrast to semantic memory, which also can be about the self, be recalled voluntarily, and be from a unique encoding; allows for a more comprehensive dimensional account of the structure of explicit memory; and better accounts for laboratory and real-world behavioral and neural results, including those from neuropsychology and neuroimaging, than does episodic memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).
One of the most contested areas in the field of animal cognition is non-human future-oriented cognition. We critically examine key underlying assumptions in the debate, which is mainly preoccupied with certain dichotomous positions, the most prevalent being whether or not 'real' future orientation is uniquely human. We argue that future orientation is a theoretical construct threatening to lead research astray. Cognitive operations occur in the present moment and can be influenced only by prior causation and the environment, at the same time that most appear directed towards future outcomes. Regarding the current debate, future orientation becomes a question of where on various continua cognition becomes 'truly' future-oriented. We question both the assumption that episodic cognition is the most important process in future-oriented cognition and the assumption that future-oriented cognition is uniquely human. We review the studies on future-oriented cognition in the great apes to find little doubt that our closest relatives possess such ability. We conclude by urging that future-oriented cognition not be viewed as expression of some select set of skills. Instead, research into future-oriented cognition should be approached more like research into social and physical cognition.
Episodic future thinking refers to mentally traveling forward in time to preexperience an event, and emerging research suggests that this is more difficult for older adults. The current study was designed to better understand the effect of aging on separate component processes of age differences in episodic future thinking. Young (n = 24) and older (n = 25) adults were asked to construct a) atemporal scenarios, b) future scenarios, and c) a narrative that involved navigation. Each of these conditions assesses the capacity to construct and describe a scene, but only the future scenario requires a subjective sense of self in time (autonoetic consciousness). The composite measure of performance showed that relative to young adults, older adults have substantially reduced capacity for all three types of construction, suggesting that age-related difficulty imagining future episodic events may reflect a more general cognitive decline with age. In addition, older adults were worse at imagining future experiences than atemporal experiences, indicating limited capacity for autonoetic consciousness. Further, this difference between imagining atemporal and future experiences was not as evident among younger adults. These deficits in episodic future thinking have implications for the daily lives of older adults in terms of anticipating and planning for the future. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved)
Placing the future center stage as a way of understanding cognition is gaining attention in psychology. The general modern label for this is “prospection” which refers to the process of representing and thinking about possible future states of the world. Several theorists have claimed that episodic and prospective memory, as well as hypothetical thinking (mental simulation) and conditional reasoning are necessary cognitive faculties that enable prospection. Given the limitations in current empirical efforts connecting these faculties to prospection, the aim of this mini review is to argue that the findings show that they are sufficient, but not necessary for prospection. As a result, the short concluding section gives an outline of an alternative conceptualization of prospection. The proposal is that the critical characteristics of prospection are the discovery of, and maintenance of goals via causal learning.
Though only a decade has elapsed since the default network (DN) was first defined as a large-scale brain system, recent years have brought great insight into the network's adaptive functions. A growing theme highlights the DN as playing a key role in internally directed or self-generated thought. Here, we synthesize recent findings from cognitive science, neuroscience, and clinical psychology to focus attention on two emerging topics as current and future directions surrounding the DN. First, we present evidence that self-generated thought is a multifaceted construct whose component processes are supported by different subsystems within the network. Second, we highlight the dynamic nature of the DN, emphasizing its interaction with executive control systems when regulating aspects of internal thought. We conclude by discussing clinical implications of disruptions to the integrity of the network, and consider disorders when thought content becomes polarized or network interactions become disrupted or imbalanced.
Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.
Common wisdom, philosophical analysis and psychological research share the view that memory is subjectively positioned toward the past: specifically, memory enables one to become re-acquainted with the objects and events of his or her past. In this paper I call this assumption into question. As I hope to show, memory has been designed by natural selection not to relive the past, but rather to anticipate and plan for future contingencies – a decidedly future-oriented mode of subjective temporality. This is not to say memory makes no reference to the past. But, I argue, past-oriented subjectivity is a by-product of a system designed by natural selection to help us face and respond to the “now and the next”. I discuss the implications of the proposed temporal realignment for research agendas as well as the potential limitations of measures designed to explore memory by focusing on its retentive capabilities.
According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis (Schacter & Addis, 2007), both remembered past and imagined future events rely heavily on episodic memory. An alternative hypothesis is that observed similarities between remembering and imagining reflect the influence of broader factors such as descriptive ability, narrative style, or inhibitory control. We attempted to distinguish between these 2 hypotheses by examining the impact of an episodic specificity induction on memory, imagination, and picture description in young and older adults. In Experiment 1, participants received the specificity induction or a control induction prior to the memory, imagination, and description tasks. Older adults provided fewer internal (i.e., episodic) and more external (i.e., semantic) details than young adults across the 3 tasks irrespective of induction. Critically, however, the specificity induction selectively increased internal but not external details for memory and imagination in both age groups compared with the control induction. By contrast, the induction did not affect internal (or external) details for picture description. Experiment 2 replicated these results in young adults using a different control induction. Our findings point to a dissociation between episodic processes involved in memory and imagination and nonepisodic processes involved in picture description.
The authors summarize 35 years of empirical research on goal-setting theory. They describe the core findings of the theory, the mechanisms by which goals operate, moderators of goal effects, the relation of goals and satisfaction, and the role of goals as mediators of incentives. The external validity and practical significance of goal-setting theory are explained, and new directions in goal-setting research are discussed. The relationships of goal setting to other theories are described as are the theory’s limitations.
On the face of it, memory, imagination, and prediction seem to be distinct cognitive functions. However, metacognitive, cognitive, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging evidence is emerging that they are not, suggesting intimate links in their underlying processes. Here, we explore these empirical findings and the evolving theoretical frameworks that seek to explain how a common neural system supports our recollection of times past, imagination, and our attempts to predict the future.
The ability to mentally simulate hypothetical scenarios is a rapidly growing area of research in both psychology and neuroscience. Episodic future thought, or the ability to simulate specific personal episodes that may potentially occur in the future, represents one facet of this general capacity that continues to garner a considerable amount of interest. The purpose of this article is to elucidate current knowledge and identify a number of unresolved issues regarding this specific mental ability. In particular, this article focuses on recent research findings from neuroimaging, neuropsychology, and clinical psychology that have demonstrated a close relation between episodic future thought and the ability to remember personal episodes from one's past. On the other hand, considerations of the role of abstracted (semantic) representations in episodic future thought have been noticeably absent in the literature. The final section of this article proposes that both episodic and semantic memory play an important role in the construction of episodic future thoughts and that their interaction in this process may be determined by the relative accessibility of information in memory.
© The Author(s) 2010.
Retirement as a research topic has become increasingly prominent in the psychology literature. This article provides a review of both theoretical development and empirical findings in this literature in the past two decades. We first discuss psychological conceptualizations of retirement and empirical operationalizations of retirement status. We then review three psychological models for understanding the retirement process and associated antecedents and outcomes, including the temporal process model of retirement, the multilevel model of retirement, and the resource-based dynamic model for retirement adjustment. We next survey the empirical findings regarding how various individual attributes, job and organizational factors, family factors, and socioeconomic context are related to the retirement process. We also discuss outcomes associated with retirement in terms of retirees' financial well-being, physical well-being, and psychological well-being. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Psychology Volume 65 is January 03, 2014. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/catalog/pubdates.aspx for revised estimates.
Summary
It has long been argued that patients with lesions in the
prefrontal cortex have difficulties in decision making and
problem solving in real-world, ill-structured situations,
particularly problem types involving planning and look ahead
components. Recently, several researchers have
questioned our ability to capture and characterize these
deficits adequately using just the standard neuropsychological
test batteries, and have called for tests that reflect real-world
task requirements more accurately. We present data from 10
patients with focal lesions to the prefrontal cortex and 10
normal control subjects engaged in a real-world financial
planning task. We also introduce a theoretical framework
and methodology developed in the cognitive science literature
for quantifying and analyzing the complex data generated
by problem-solving tasks. Our findings indicate that patient
performance is impoverished at a global level but not at
the local level. Patients have difficulty in organizing and
structuring their problem space. Once they begin problem
solving, they have difficulty in allocating adequate effort to
each problem-solving phase. Patients also have difficulty
dealing with the fact that there are no right or wrong
answers nor official termination points in real-world planning
problems. They also find it problematic to generate their own
feedback. They invariably terminate the session before the
details are fleshed out and all the goals satisfied. Finally,
patients do not take full advantage of the fact that constraints
on real-world problems are negotiable. However, it is not
necessary to postulate a ‘planning’ deficit. It is possible to
understand the patients’ difficulties in real world planning
tasks in terms of the following four accepted deficits:
inadequate access to ‘structured event complexes’, difficulty
in generalizing from particulars, failure to shift between
‘mental sets’, and poor judgment regarding adequacy and
completeness of a plan.
Episodic memory refers to a complex and multifaceted process which enables the retrieval of richly detailed evocative memories from the past. In contrast, semantic memory is conceptualized as the retrieval of general conceptual knowledge divested of a specific spa-tiotemporal context. The neural substrates of the episodic and semantic memory systems have been dissociated in healthy individuals during functional imaging studies, and in clinical cohorts, leading to the prevailing view that episodic and semantic memory represent func-tionally distinct systems subtended by discrete neurobiological substrates. Importantly, however, converging evidence focusing on widespread neural networks now points to sig-nificant overlap between those regions essential for retrieval of autobiographical memories, episodic learning, and semantic processing. Here we review recent advances in episodic memory research focusing on neurodegenerative populations which has proved revelatory for our understanding of the complex interplay between episodic and semantic memory. Whereas episodic memory research has traditionally focused on retrieval of autobiographi-cal events from the past, we also include evidence from the recent paradigm shift in which episodic memory is viewed as an adaptive and constructive process which facilitates the imagining of possible events in the future. We examine the available evidence which con-verges to highlight the pivotal role of semantic memory in providing schemas and meaning whether one is engaged in autobiographical retrieval for the past, or indeed, is endeavoring to construct a plausible scenario of an event in the future. It therefore seems plausible to contend that semantic processing may underlie most, if not all, forms of episodic memory, irrespective of temporal condition.
Memory serves critical functions in everyday life but is also prone to error. This article examines adaptive constructive processes, which play a functional role in memory and cognition but can also produce distortions, errors, and illusions. The article describes several types of memory errors that are produced by adaptive constructive processes and focuses in particular on the process of imagining or simulating events that might occur in one's personal future. Simulating future events relies on many of the same cognitive and neural processes as remembering past events, which may help to explain why imagination and memory can be easily confused. The article considers both pitfalls and adaptive aspects of future event simulation in the context of research on planning, prediction, problem solving, mind-wandering, prospective and retrospective memory, coping and positivity bias, and the interconnected set of brain regions known as the default network. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).
While there is a growing body of research on free thoughts such as fantasies and daydreams, the question of whether and how fantasies lead to effortful action and successful performance has hardly been investigated. The present article will show that, counter to what the popular self-help literature proposes, positive thinking can be detrimental to effort and success if it comes in the form of fantasies (free thoughts and images about the desired future) rather than beliefs (expectations). The article will then discuss fantasy realisation theory (FRT), which specifies how fantasies can be used to wisely self-regulate goal pursuit. The theory argues that the strategy of mental contrasting future and reality will produce both active goal pursuit and active goal disengagement, depending on a person's high versus low expectations of success, respectively. Research supporting these ideas across life domains points to non-conscious cognitive and motivational processes responsible for the effects of mental contrasting, and it depicts context variables (e.g., sad mood) that influence the rise and usage of mental contrasting. Intervention studies attest to mental contrasting as a content-free, time- and cost-effective metacognitive strategy that people can use to regulate their own goal pursuits in an autonomous way, thus helping people to become masters of their everyday life and long-term development.
When people encounter problems in translating their goals into action (e.g., failing to get started, becoming distracted, or falling into bad habits), they may strategically call on automatic processes in an attempt to secure goal attainment. This can be achieved by plans in the form of implementation intentions that link anticipated critical situations to goal-directed responses ("Whenever situation
x arises, I will initiate the goal-directed response
y!"). Implementation intentions delegate the control of goal-directed responses to anticipated situational cues, which (when actually encountered) elicit these responses automatically. A program of research demonstrates that implementation intentions further the attainment of goals, and it reveals the underlying processes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Describes laboratory and clinical attempts to relate different memory systems (procedural, semantic, and episodic) to corresponding varieties of consciousness (anoetic, noetic, and autonoetic). The case of a young adult male amnesic patient is described. The S suffered a closed head injury that left him without autonoetic consciousness. This deficit is manifested in his amnesia for personal events and his impaired awareness of subjective time. Two simple experiments investigated recall and recognition by a total of 89 normal undergraduates to further examine autonoetic consciousness as the necessary correlate of episodic memory. Results show that the distinction between knowing and remembering previous occurrences of events is meaningful to people, that people can make corresponding judgments about their memory performance, and that these judgments vary systematically with the conditions under which retrieved information takes place. (French abstract) (71 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Planning is not only an aspect of our day-to-day lives, it represents a critical aspect of performance on many high-level tasks. Although few of us would dispute the need for planning, the psychology of planning remains relatively undeveloped. With this point in mind, the intent in the present article was to review the available literature on planning. The authors begin by examining alternative models of planning and delineating their implications for performance. Subsequently, the findings obtained in various studies of planning are reviewed with respect to 8 key questions ranging from when planning is useful to how errors in planning should be minimized. The implications of current answers to these questions are discussed in terms of research needs and development of a more comprehensive theoretical understanding of performance in planning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
How people assign mental states to others and how they represent or conceptualize such states in the first place are topics of interest to philosophy of mind, developmental psychology, and cognitive neuroscience. Three competing answers to the question of how people impute mental states to others have been offered: by rationalizing, by theorizing, or by simulating. Simulation theory says that mindreaders produce mental states in their own minds that resemble, or aim to resemble, those of their targets; these states are then imputed to, or projected onto, the targets. In low-level mindreading, such as reading emotions from faces, simulation is mediated by automatic mirror systems. More controlled processes of simulation, here called “enactment imagination”, are used in high-level mindreading. Just as visual and motor imagery are attempts to replicate acts of seeing and doing, mindreading is characteristically an attempt to replicate the mental processes of a target, followed by projection of the imagination-generated state onto the target. Projection errors are symptomatic of simulation, because one’s own genuine states readily intrude into the simulational process. A nuanced form of introspection is introduced to explain self-attribution and also to address the question of how mental concepts are represented. A distinctive cognitive code involving introspective representations figures prominently in our concepts of mental states. The book concludes with an overview of the pervasive effects on social life of simulation, imitation, and empathy, and charts their possible roles in moral experience and the fictive arts.
Episodic memory refers to a complex and multifaceted process which enables the retrieval of richly detailed evocative memories from the past. In contrast, semantic memory is conceptualized as the retrieval of general conceptual knowledge divested of a specific spa-tiotemporal context. The neural substrates of the episodic and semantic memory systems have been dissociated in healthy individuals during functional imaging studies, and in clinical cohorts, leading to the prevailing view that episodic and semantic memory represent functionally distinct systems subtended by discrete neurobiological substrates. Importantly, however, converging evidence focusing on widespread neural networks now points to significant overlap between those regions essential for retrieval of autobiographical memories, episodic learning, and semantic processing. Here we review recent advances in episodic memory research focusing on neurodegenerative populations which has proved revelatory for our understanding of the complex interplay between episodic and semantic memory. Whereas episodic memory research has traditionally focused on retrieval of autobiographical events from the past, we also include evidence from the recent paradigm shift in which episodic memory is viewed as an adaptive and constructive process which facilitates the imagining of possible events in the future. We examine the available evidence which converges to highlight the pivotal role of semantic memory in providing schemas and meaning whether one is engaged in autobiographical retrieval for the past, or indeed, is endeavoring to construct a plausible scenario of an event in the future. It therefore seems plausible to contend that semantic processing may underlie most, if not all, forms of episodic memory, irrespective of temporal condition.
This chapter is organized into two main sections. First, it provides an overview of the concept of "autonoetic consciousness," which is defined as the capacity to be consciously aware of one's continued temporal existence. Second, it outlines various "predictive" mental activities that deal with the extended, or "non-immediate," future of the individual. These include future orientation, episodic future thought, planning, and prospective memory. Furthermore, the chapter considers the nature in which these "predictive" mental activities relate to one another and how, ultimately, each depends on the capacity of autonoetic consciousness.
This article examines the effects of memory loss on a patient's ability to remember the past and imagine the future. We present the case of D.B., who, as a result of hypoxic brain damage, suffered severe amnesia for the personally experienced past. By contrast, his knowledge of the nonpersonal past was relatively preserved. A similar pattern was evidenced in his ability to anticipate future events. Although D.B. had great difficulty imagining what his experiences might be like in the future, his capacity to anticipate issues and events in the public domain was comparable to that of neurologically healthy, age-matched controls. These findings suggest that neuropsychological dissociations between episodic and semantic memory for the past also may extend to the ability to anticipate the future.
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This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions.
Extant findings suggest interesting avenues for the investigation of the potential relationship between EFT and PM. However, as they stand, they are inconclusive as to the causal role that EFT may play in aiding prospective remembering. In one Experiment, we showed that accuracy in a prospective memory (PM) task performed on the second day was significantly higher when participants, on the first day, had mentally simulated the sequence of events expected to occur on the second day, including the PM task, than when they had performed control tasks. These data extend previous findings on the functional benefit of future simulations in different domains by revealing a substantial facilitation effect of future-oriented thoughts on PM performance when the mentally simulated future task matched the actually executed task.
Prospection (Gilbert & Wilson, 2007), the representation of possible futures, is a ubiquitous feature of the human mind. Much psychological theory and practice, in contrast, has understood human action as determined by the past and viewed any such teleology (selection of action in light of goals) as a violation of natural law because the future cannot act on the present. Prospection involves no backward causation; rather, it is guidance not by the future itself but by present, evaluative representations of possible future states. These representations can be understood minimally as "If X, then Y" conditionals, and the process of prospection can be understood as the generation and evaluation of these conditionals. We review the history of the attempt to cast teleology out of science, culminating in the failures of behaviorism and psychoanalysis to account adequately for action without teleology. A wide range of evidence suggests that prospection is a central organizing feature of perception, cognition, affect, memory, motivation, and action. The authors speculate that prospection casts new light on why subjectivity is part of consciousness, what is "free" and "willing" in "free will," and on mental disorders and their treatment. Viewing behavior as driven by the past was a powerful framework that helped create scientific psychology, but accumulating evidence in a wide range of areas of research suggests a shift in framework, in which navigation into the future is seen as a core organizing principle of animal and human behavior.
© The Author(s) 2013.
Simulating future events is dependent on a similar neural circuitry to that which supports retrieving contextual information about past events. The current study examined two novel predictions from recently reported episodic future simulation studies. Prospective memory is broadly defined as the usage of episodic memory processes to encode and retrieve intentions at some appropriate moment in the future. The results from two experiments are consistent with the idea that episodic future simulation is an important component of encoding prospective memories (i.e., forming intentions for the future). Furthermore, the results necessitate further neuroscientific investigations of encoding prospective memories and additionally suggest that current theories of prospective memory need to be updated to fully account for our ability to encode, retrieve, and fulfill intentions for the future.
Four theories of the human conceptual system—semantic memory, exemplar models, feed‐forward connectionist nets, and situated simulation theory—are characterised and contrasted on five dimensions: (1) architecture (modular vs. non‐modular), (2) representation (amodal vs. modal), (3) abstraction (decontextualised vs. situated), (4) stability (stable vs. dynamical), and (5) organisation (taxonomic vs. action–environment interface). Empirical evidence is then reviewed for the situated simulation theory, and the following conclusions are reached. Because the conceptual system shares mechanisms with perception and action, it is non-modular. As a result, conceptual representations are multi-modal simulations distributed across modality‐specific systems. A given simulation for a concept is situated, preparing an agent for situated action with a particular instance, in a particular setting. Because a concept delivers diverse simulations that prepare agents for action in many different situations, it is dynamical. Because the conceptual system’s primary purpose is to support situated action, it becomes organised around the action–environment interface.
Prior research has demonstrated that imagining hypothetical future events may render those events subjectively more likely. The suggestion has been made that this effect is due to the increased availability in memory of the events imagined. To test directly this explanation in a health context, the present study examined the effects of both ease and difficulty of imagining contracting a disease on subjects' beliefs that the event would occur. Subjects were asked to imagine contracting a disease described either as having certain easy-to-imagine symptoms or difficult-to-imagine symptoms. Following this, subjects rated their ease of imagination and estimated the likelihood of contracting the disease. The results revealed that judgments of ease or difficulty of imagination paralleled judgments of the likelihood of contracting the disease. Those subjects who rated the disease as easy-to-imagine judged the disease as more likely to occur, whereas those who experienced difficulty in imagining the disease rated it as less likely to occur. The results are interpreted in terms of the availability heuristic and give direct support for and extend this principle by showing that trying to imagine difficult-to-construct or cognitively inaccessible events reduces likelihood estimates. Implications for preventive health programs are discussed.
A study is reported that examined memory for past experiences and anticipation of future experiences within panic disorder patients (N = 17), depressed patients (N = 16), and controls (N = 17). Anticipation and recall of positive and negative experiences were examined by administering an adapted verbal fluency paradigm. Participants were asked to generate future and past, positive and negative experiences in response to various time-frame cues. Anxiety was associated with generating more negative experiences but not fewer positive experiences; depression was associated with generating fewer positive experiences but not more negative experiences. The patterns for recall of past experiences and anticipation of future experiences were very similar.
People base many decisions on affective forecasts, predictions about their emotional reactions to future events. They often display an impact bias, overestimating the intensity and duration of their emotional reactions to such events. One cause of the impact bias is focalism, the tendency to underestimate the extent to which other events will influence our thoughts and feelings. Another is people's failure to anticipate how quickly they will make sense of things that happen to them in a way that speeds emotional recovery. This is especially true when predicting reactions to negative events: People fail to anticipate how quickly they will cope psychologically with such events in ways that speed their recovery from them. Several implications are discussed, such as the tendency for people to attribute their unexpected resilience to external agents.
The capacity to predict future events permits a creature to detect, model, and manipulate the causal structure of its interactions
with its environment. Behavioral experiments suggest that learning is driven by changes in the expectations about future salient
events such as rewards and punishments. Physiological work has recently complemented these studies by identifying dopaminergic
neurons in the primate whose fluctuating output apparently signals changes or errors in the predictions of future salient
and rewarding events. Taken together, these findings can be understood through quantitative theories of adaptive optimizing
control.
The ability to imagine the future (prospection) relies on many of the same brain regions that support memory for the past. To date, scientific research has primarily focused on the neural substrates of episodic forms of prospection (mental simulation of spatiotemporally specific future events); however, little is known about the neural substrates of semantic prospection (mental simulation of future nonpersonal facts). Of particular interest is the role of the medial temporal lobes (MTLs), and specifically the hippocampus. Although the hippocampus has been proposed to play a key role in episodic prospection, recent evidence suggests that it may not play a similar role in semantic prospection. To examine this possibility, amnesic patients with MTL lesions were asked to imagine future issues occurring in the public domain. The results showed that patients could list general semantic facts about the future, but when probed to elaborate, patients produced impoverished descriptions that lacked semantic detail. This impairment occurred despite intact performance on standard neuropsychological tests of semantic processing and did not simply reflect deficits in narrative construction. The performance of a patient with damage limited to the hippocampus was similar to that of the remaining patients with MTL lesions and amnesic patients' impaired elaboration of the semantic future correlated with their impaired elaboration of the semantic past. Together, these results provide novel evidence from MTL amnesia that memory and prospection are linked in the semantic domain and reveal that the MTLs play a critical role in the construction of detailed, multi-element semantic simulations. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
During the past few years, there has been a dramatic increase in research examining the role of memory in imagination and future thinking. This work has revealed striking similarities between remembering the past and imagining or simulating the future, including the finding that a common brain network underlies both memory and imagination. Here, we discuss a number of key points that have emerged during recent years, focusing in particular on the importance of distinguishing between temporal and nontemporal factors in analyses of memory and imagination, the nature of differences between remembering the past and imagining the future, the identification of component processes that comprise the default network supporting memory-based simulations, and the finding that this network can couple flexibly with other networks to support complex goal-directed simulations. This growing area of research has broadened our conception of memory by highlighting the many ways in which memory supports adaptive functioning.