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The problem of SETI: development tendencies of a terrestrial civilization and a possible solution to the Fermi paradox

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Abstract

The discovery of several thousand extrasolar planets shows that the emergence of life on some of them is predictable and expected event. It follows that with a certain probability can (and should) exist civilization, outpacing terrestrial one in its development. This further aggravates the paradox formulated by Enrico Fermi: why there are no observable manifestations of activity of supercivilizations if life is not a unique phenomenon in the Galaxy and in the Universe? It is often assumed that the absence of such manifestations caused by that supercivilization quickly cease to exist ("die by suicide"). However, this view is ungrounded. On the contrary, consideration of demographic, energy, heat, radiation and mutational genetic (adaptation) barriers to extensive development and distribution of Earth-like civilization can solve the Fermi paradox otherwise, in a constructive way. Earth-like civilization rather quickly moves on to another - intensive - development strategy, in which it displays hardly noticeable for the remote external observers.
The problem of SETI: development tendencies of a terrestrial civilization and a possible
solution to the Fermi paradox
Aleksandr V. Bukalov
The Centre of Physical and Space Researches, IIS, Melnikova str., 12, Kiev-050, 04050, Ukraine
e-mail: boukalov@gmail.com
The discovery of several thousand extrasolar planets shows that the emergence of life on some of
them is predictable and expected event. It follows that with a certain probability can (and should) exist
civilization, outpacing terrestrial one in its development. This further aggravates the paradox formulated
by Enrico Fermi: why there are no observable manifestations of activity of supercivilizations if life is not
a unique phenomenon in the Galaxy and in the Universe? It is often assumed that the absence of such
manifestations caused by that supercivilization quickly cease to exist ("die by suicide"). However, this
view is ungrounded. On the contrary, consideration of demographic, energy, heat, radiation and
mutational genetic (adaptation) barriers to extensive development and distribution of Earth-like
civilization can solve the Fermi paradox otherwise, in a constructive way. Earth-like civilization rather
quickly moves on to another - intensive - development strategy, in which it displays hardly noticeable for
the remote external observers.
1. Bukalov A.V. Civilization Development Strategies from the Viewpoint of Socionics and Life in the
Universe // Socionics, mentology and personality psychology. — 2004. — № 1. — P. 68–75.
2. Bukalov A.V. SETI and extraterrestrial life // 9th Ukrainian Conference on Space Research,
Yevpatoria, 2009. Abstracts. — Kyiv, 2009.

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Basing on the new physical approach in description of the characteristics of alive matter, the author obtained a numerical values for mass of living matter in the Universe, quantity of biospheres in the Universe (Nbio~3.3•1018), quantity of biospheres in the Galaxy (N~5•107). The calculated average distance between biospheres in the Galaxy is l≤50 light years. However, the probability of disclosure of an extra-terrestrial civilization, analogous to Earth one, is too small, P~10-5. It is shown, that a paradigm of the expansive and extensive development of the modern technological civilization in the bounds of SETI is useless principally. The developing civilization under the presence of the energetic, thermal, destruction barriers begins to develop intensively by the reducing of the energy consumption per the produced and used products. This civilization will become less and less power-extensive and thus it will be less and less detectable. Taking into account the very probable transition to the other communication means usage including the one, based on other fields and interactions, the developed civilization will not be detectable within the electromagnetic range. The technological civilizations are rather seldom. Their existence term is near 200 years and then they disappear, but not quite, as I. S. Shklovsky supposed, but transform into something other. Such transformations are similar to the transition of a caterpillar into chrysalis and then into butterfly or any other insect. Besides the usage of the modern genetics energetic technologies and cloning will lead to the inevitable prolongation of human life as well as to the population growth stabilization due to the life condition improvement and the elimination of the civilization expansive development. A strategy of intensive growth of civilization using the low-energy quantum technologies is more realistic. In that case, the radiation of civilization becomes low and it is very difficult to detect such civilization in the electromagnetic diapason.