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Donner Party Deaths: A Demographic Assessment
Author(s): Donald K. Grayson
Source:
Journal of Anthropological Research,
Vol. 46, No. 3 (Autumn, 1990), pp. 223-242
Published by: University of New Mexico
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3630425
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JOURNAL OF
ANTHROPOLOGICAL RESEARCH
(Formerly Southwestern
Journal of Anthropology)
VOLUME 46 * NUMBER
3 * FALL * 1990
DONNER
PARTY
DEATHS:
A DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT
Donald
K. Grayson
Department
of
Anthropology
and
Quaternary
Research
Center,
University
of
Washington,
Seattle,
WA
98195
During
the summer
of 1846, the 87 members
of the
Donner
Party
travelled an untested
route
between
Fort
Bridger,
Wyoming,
and the Humboldt
River,
Nevada.
As a result
of
delays
caused
by
this
choice,
they
became
stranded
by
heavy
snows
on the east
flank
of the
Sierra Nevada.
By the
time
the
last member
of
the
party
was
rescued,
40 had died.
Analysis
of the
pattern
of deaths
among
the
Donners
shows
that
survivorship
within the
party
was
mediated almost
entirely
by
three
factors:
age,
sex,
and
the
size
of the kin
group
with
which
each member travelled. The
differential fate of the members
of the Donner
Party
lends
strong
support
to the argument
that
females
are better
able than males
to withstand
conditions
marked
by
famine
and extreme
cold.
THE HISTORY
OF THE
Donner Party is so deeply embedded in American lore
that
there can
be few Americans who do not know
something
about it. At its
most lurid
level,
the fate
of
the Donner
Party provides
popular
American
history
with a tale of cannibalism,
of fellow travellers
eating
one another
to survive
the snows of the Sierra
Nevada
during
the winter
of 1846-1847. At a deeper
level, the Donner
history
juxtaposes
an attempt
to fulfill a common mid-nine-
teenth-century
American
dream--a
better life to be found
by going
west-
with
one of the worst
tragedies
to befall overland
emigrants
in their
attempts
to pursue
that dream.
The Donner
Party,
however,
can be viewed
in a more
dispassionate way,
as a human
group
that
was almost
fully
exposed
to the
vagaries
of an
exceedingly
harsh and
demanding
environment
and
that
lost nearly
half its members as a
result. The differential
fates of the members
of the Donner
Party
may thus
provide
a case study
of demographically
mediated natural
selection
in action.
In so doing,
the Donner
tragedy
can
confirm
and
expand
our
understanding
of
the roles that sex, age, and social factors
play
in determining
survival and
death
during
a natural
disaster.
This is the aspect
of the Donner
Party
story
that
I examine
here.'
223
224 JOURNAL
OF
ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
A BRIEF HISTORY
OF THE DONNER PARTY
The story
of the Donner
Party
has been told
many
times
in many
different
ways (e.g., McGlashan
1880; Reed in Korns
1951; Stewart
1960; Murphy
1980;
Hardesty
1987;
Hawkins
and
Madsen
1990;
Topping
1990). Here,
I draw
on these sources to provide
a brief
descriptive
account of the final
stages of
the journey
as background
for
my discussion of Donner
Party
demographics.
Although
the final
composition
of the Donner
Party
was
not
established
until
August
1846,
the heart of that
group,
the 22 members
of the Donner and
Reed
families,
left Springfield,
Illinois,
for California in
mid-April
1846.
By that
year,
the wagon
routes west were well
established,
if not, in California's
case, well
travelled
(Curran
1982;
Morgan
1985;
Unruh
1979).
With the exception
of the
death
of Margaret
Reed's
elderly
mother,
Sarah
Keyes, shortly
after the
jour-
ney had
begun,
the Donners and their
travelling
companions
had a relatively
uneventful
trip as far as Fort Bridger
on western
Wyoming's
Green River.
After
reaching
Fort
Bridger
on
July
27, however,
the Donner
Party
made its
decision to take a new and untested route to the Sacramento
Valley (Figure
1).
This new route had recently
been touted
by Lansford
W. Hastings
in a
popular
and influential
guidebook (Hastings
1845).
Had the Donner
Party
de-
cided
to stay on established
trails,
they would
have headed north
from Fort
Bridger
to southern
Idaho's Fort
Hall,
the junction
of the standard routes to
both
Oregon
and
California.
Hastings suggested
that
emigrants
should
instead
make their
way south and west through
the rugged
Wasatch
Range.
Once
in
the valley
of the Great Salt
Lake,
they
were to pass south of the lake and
then
forge directly
across the Great Salt Lake Desert to the headwaters
of the
Humboldt
River.
Here, on the Humboldt,
they
would
rejoin
established
paths.
This
more direct
route, he asserted,
would save both time and effort. It was
this route, the Hastings
Cutoff,
that the Donner
Party
decided to follow.
Hastings
himself
had come to Fort Bridger
to guide emigrants
along
his
route, but
by the time the Donner
Party
arrived,
he had
already
left to guide
the Harlan-Young
group,
some members of which
had
travelled with the Don-
ners earlier
in the summer.
Following
in the Harlan-Young
trail,
the Donner
Party
reached its full
size of 87 people
and
twenty wagons
while it was in the
Wasatch
Range
(Table 1). Although
a small
advance detachment of the Donner
Party
located
Hastings
south of the Great Salt
Lake,
he was
by
then
committed
to the Harlan-Young group.
As a result,
Hastings
could do
little more
than ride
back far
enough
to point
out what he thought
would be the best way through
the Wasatch and
into the Great
Salt Lake
Valley.
The Wasatch route
that
Hastings suggested
proved
to be extremely
chal-
lenging,
both because of the nature of the physical
environment
it offered and
because members of the party
had
begun to bicker
among
themselves. Hacking
its way through
aspen, willows, and
dense shrubs and
cutting
a road
as it went,
the exhausted group emerged from Emigration Canyon into the Great Salt
Lake Valley
on August 22. They had taken twenty-six days to accomplish
what
DONNER PARTY
DEATHS 225
Fort
Hall
Snake
River
_z
IDAHOS- LE
NEVADA UTAH
I J
c
..
.G
ea
S"'Great".. Salt Fort
.•
•"" :"SaaltX,
Bridger
Lake
~~3.
Lake
f
)~
"c- Desert N
~I cI
".C
OUtah 20 KM
cc
Lake
i.
Figure
1. The
Hastings
Cutoff Section
of the
Donner
Party
Route
Modified
from
Hawkins
and
Madsen
(1990:fig.
1).
the Harlan-Young
Party
had
accomplished
in eighteen
(Reed
in Korns
1951;
Topping
1990).
The great trial
after negotiating
the Wasatch
Range
was the vast desert
west of the Great
Salt
Lake,
some eighty
waterless
miles
lying
between
the
Cedar Mountains and the Pilot
Range.
How
long
this traverse took the Donner
Party
depends
on how you count.
According
to party
member
James
Frazer
Reed (in Korns
1951), the quickest
travellers made it in three days, leaving
the Cedar Mountains on August
31 and
reaching
Pilot Springs,
in the Pilot
Range,
on
September
3. The rest of the
party
made
it the next
day.
But
getting
yourself
across the desert was not the same as getting your livestock and
wagons
across, and the Donner
Party
had to abandon
some of both
as they
approached Floating
Island on the western
edge
of the Great
Salt
Lake Desert.
How many
animals were lost is not clear;
one member
of the party put
it at
thirty-six.
Reed himself lost eighteen
of his twenty
cattle
here, and the Reeds
reached
Pilot
Springs
with all three
of their
wagons
stuck
in
the salt flats west
of Floating
Island.
Another
week was to pass before
the tasks
of rounding up
strays and retrieving wagons
were completed
and before the animals had
regained
their
strength.
Only
then
did
the group get under
way again,
but even
then, four
wagons
had to be left behind
(Hawkins
and Madsen
1990).
From the Pilot Range,
the Donner
Party
followed
Hastings's
route down
Ruby Valley,
across the Ruby
Mountains,
and then north to the
upper
Humboldt
River.
Once at the Humboldt,
they were back on what was to become the
226 JOURNAL
OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
TABLE
1
Donner Party Statistics
Name Sex Survived? Age Family Group
Size
Antoine Male No 23 1
Breen, Edward Male Yes 13 9
Breen, Isabella Female Yes 1 9
Breen,
James Male Yes 4 9
Breen,
John Male Yes 14 9
Breen, Mary Female Yes 40 9
Breen, Patrick Male Yes 40 9
Breen, Patrick, Jr. Male Yes 11 9
Breen, Peter Male Yes 7 9
Breen, Simon Male Yes 9 9
Burger,
Charles Male No 30 1
Denton, John Male No 28 1
Dolan,
Patrick Male No 40 1
Donner,
Elitha Female Yes 14 16
Donner,
Elizabeth Female No 45 16
Donner,
Eliza Female Yes 3 16
Donner,
Frances Female Yes 6 16
Donner,
George Male No 62 16
Donner,
George Male Yes 9 16
Donner,
Georgia Female Yes 4 16
Donner,
Isaac Male No 5 16
Donner, Jacob Male No 65 16
Donner,
Leanna Female Yes 12 16
Donner,
Lewis Male No 3 16
Donner,
Mary Female Yes 7 16
Donner,
Samuel Male No 4 16
Donner,
Tamsen Female No 45 16
Eddy,
Eleanor Female No 25 4
Eddy,
James Male No 3 4
Eddy,
Margaret Female No 1 4
Eddy,
William Male Yes 28 4
Elliot,
Milton Male No 28 1
Fosdick,
Jay Male No 23 12
Fosdick,
Sarah Female Yes 22 12
Foster,
George Male No 4 13
Foster,
Sarah Female Yes 23 13
Foster,
William Male Yes 28 13
Graves,
Eleanor Female Yes 15 12
Graves,
Elizabeth Female No 47 12
Graves,
Elizabeth Female No 1 12
Graves, Franklin, Jr. Male No 5 12
Graves,
Franklin Male No 57 12
Graves, Jonathan Male Yes 7 12
Graves,
Lavina Female Yes 13 12
Continued on next
page
DONNER
PARTY DEATHS 227
Table 1-Continued
Name Sex Survived? Age Family
Group
Size
Graves,
Mary Female Yes 20 12
Graves,
Nancy Female Yes 9 12
Graves,
William Male Yes 18 12
Halloran,
Luke Male No 25 1
Hardkoop,
Mr. Male No 60 1
Herron,
William Male Yes 25 1
Hook,
Solomon Male Yes 14 16
Hook,
William Male No 12 16
James,
Noah Male Yes 20 1
Keseberg,
Ada Female No 3 4
Keseberg,
Lewis Male Yes 32 4
Keseberg,
Lewis,
Jr. Male No 1 4
Keseberg,
Phillipine Female Yes 32 4
McCutcheon,
Amanda Female Yes 24 3
McCutcheon,
Harriet Female No 1 3
McCutcheon,
William Male Yes 30 3
Murphy,
John Male No 15 13
Murphy,
Lavina Female No 50 13
Murphy,
Lemuel Male No 12 13
Murphy,
Mary Female Yes 13 13
Murphy,
Simon Male Yes 10 13
Murphy,
William Male Yes 11 13
Pike, Catherine Female No 1 13
Pike, Harriet Female Yes 21 13
Pike, Naomi Female Yes 3 13
Pike, William Male No 25 13
Reed,
James Male Yes 46 6
Reed, James,
Jr. Male Yes 5 6
Reed, Margaret Female Yes 32 6
Reed, Patty Female Yes 8 6
Reed, Thomas Male Yes 3 6
Reed, Virginia Female Yes 12 6
Reinhardt,
Joseph Male No 30 1
Shoemaker,
Samuel Male No 25 1
Smith,
James Male No 25 1
Snyder,
John Male No 25 1
Spitzer,
Augustus Male No 30 1
Stanton,
Charles Male No 35 1
Trubode, J. B. Male Yes 23 1
Williams,
Baylis Male No 24 2
Williams,
Eliza Female Yes 25 2
Wolfinger,
Mr. Male No ? 2
Wolfinger,
Mrs. Female Yes ? 2
Source:
Stewart
(1960)
228 JOURNAL
OF
ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
standard Central
Overland Trail--down the Humboldt to the Humboldt
Sink,
then west to the Sierra
Nevada,
whose
crossing
provided
the last great
chal-
lenge to California-bound
immigrants.
These twin
delays--one in the Wasatch
Range
and
one as a result of the
Great Salt Lake
Desert-had a fatal
significance.
The wagon
trains that
im-
mediately
preceded
the Donner
group
on Hastings's
route-both the Harlan-
Young Party
and
a smaller
group
that had left Fort
Bridger only
five
days
before
the departure
of the Donner
Party
(Leinhard
in Korns
1951)-made it safely.
Following very much
in the tracks
of these earlier
groups,
the Donner
Party
hit
heavy
late October snows in the eastern
flanks of the Sierra
Nevada. Unable
to cross, they established
camps
near
what is today
called Donner Lake.
By
the time
the last survivor was
rescued,
on
April
21, 1847,
40 of the 87 members
of the Donner
Party
had died. Of these 40, 35 died
directly
as a result
of the
forced
winter
encampment.
DONNER PARTY
DEMOGRAPHICS
With
two exceptions,
Stewart
(1960)
provides
ages or estimated
ages for
the members of the Donner
Party.
The two exceptions
are the Wolfingers,
whose ages apparently
remain
unknown.
I have followed Stewart's
age as-
signments
in my analysis.
Even though
Stewart estimated
ages in a number
of cases, most of my analyses
are
based
on age classes, not on specific ages.
As a result, the effects of any
incorrect estimates should be minimal.
How does the age and sex composition
of the Donner
Party
compare
with
the population
from which it came?
Of
the 87 people
in the Donner
Party,
the
majority
(47) were from
Illinois,
while an additional 26 were from
adjacent
Missouri
(16) and Iowa (10). I assume, then, that contemporary
Illinoisans
adequately represent
the population
from which
the Donner
Party
was drawn.
In addition,
I assume that the population
of Illinois
in 1850, the year of the
closest U.S. census, adequately
reflects
that
population.
Table
2 provides summary
data on the distribution
of the "white"
population
of Illinois
across
age classes
in 1850,
taken
from
the Seventh
U.S. Census
(de
Bow 1854).
Assuming
that Stewart's
age estimates are sufficiently
accurate to
place
Donner
Party
members
in the proper
Seventh
Census
age class, then a
fairly
detailed
comparison
between the distribution of those members and the
"white" Illinois
population
can be
made.
Analysis
of single-cell age
class
residuals
shows that
the distribution of
individuals across
age
classes
in
these two
groups
differs
significantly
in
only
two
instances.
When
compared
to the "white"
Illinois
population
as a whole,
individuals
between 15 and 19
years
old
are
significantly
underrepresented (p = .014) in the Donner
Party,
and
those between 20 and
29 are significantly
overrepresented (p = .025). For comparison,
the last
columns in Table
2 ("Donner
Scaled")
indicate
the expected
age structure of
the Donner
Party
had
85 people
been selected from the 1850 Illinois "white"
population.
The general
similarity
between the age structure
of the Donner
Party
and the "white"
Illinois
age structure
in 1850 is clear.
DONNER
PARTY
DEATHS 229
TABLE
2
Ages of Donner Party Members and of People Identified as "White"
in the
Seventh U.S. Census by Seventh Census Age Class
Illinois Donner
Party Donner
Scaled
Age Class Total % Total % Total %
1-4 141,360 16.72 16 18.82 14.2 16.72
5-9 129,905 15.37 11 12.94 13.1 15.37
10-14 112,
860 13.35 13 15.29 11.4 13.35
15-19 92,698 10.97 3 3.53 9.3 10.97
20-29 150,044 17.75 22 25.88 15.1 17.75
30-39 102,426 12.12 8 9.41 10.3 12.12
40-49 62,072 7.34 7 8.24 6.2 7.34
50-59 33,828 4.00 2 2.35 3.4 4.00
60-69 14,410 1.71 3 3.53 1.5 1.71
70-79 4,
577 0.54 0 0.00 0.5 0.54
80-89 938 0.11 0 0.00 0.1 0.11
90-99 109 0.01 0 0.00 0.0 0.01
100+ 15 0.00 0 0.00 0.0 0.00
Totals 845,242 99.99 85 99.99 85.1 99.99
Note: The two
members
of the
Donner
Party
whose
ages
are unknown are not included
in
this
table.
To some extent, the same can be said for the ratio of males
to females
in
the Donner
Party.
The Seventh Census
provides
two different
kinds
of data
on
the distribution
of
males and
females
across
age categories
within
the
United
States. Actual counts
of individuals
by sex and
by state are presented
in de
Bow (1855). However,
these statistics
are for the "aggregate"
population
of
the United States and are thus not comparable
to age statistics
presented
for
the "white"
population.
In addition,
by grouping
all
individuals between 20 and
49 years
of age, as well as all
those between 50 and 79 years, the age classes
used in de Bow (1855)
are quite
different
from
those used in de Bow (1854).
Fortunately,
de Bow (1854:
table
33) provides
the number
of males
per 100
females
in the "white"
population
by state, using
the same
age classes as those
employed
to present
the age structure of the American
population.
These sex
ratios allow
the total numbers of "white" males and females
per age class to
be reconstructed for all states.
Table
3 provides
the percentage
of "white" Illinois residents
by sex and
by
Seventh Census
age class, reconstructed
by applying
the sex ratios
in de Bow
(1854) to the total Illinois
population given
in the same source. Comparable
data for the Donner
Party
are presented
in Table
4. Analysis
of single-cell
residuals shows that there are no significant
differences between the Donner
Party
and the "white" Illinois female
population
in terms
of the distribution of
females across age categories.
This is not the case, however,
for males.
230 JOURNAL
OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
TABLE 3
Distribution of "White"
Males
and
Females
in Illinois
in 1850 by Seventh
Census
Age Classes
N of Males
Age Class per 100 Females %
Males %
Females N Males N Females
1-4 96.5 49.11 50.89 69,
422 71,938
5-9 95.6 48.88 51.12 63,498 66,407
10-14 92.7 48.11 51.89 54,297 58,563
15-19 97.4 49.34 50.66 45, 737 46,961
20-29 88.8 47.03 52.97 70,566 79,478
30-39 79.1 44.17 55.83 45,242 57,184
40-49 80.5 44.60 55.40 27,684 34,388
50-59 76.9 43.47 56.53 14,705 19,123
60-69 80.8 44.69 55.31 6,440 7,970
70-79 81.1 44.79 55.21 2,050 2,527
80-89 86.1 46.27 53.73 434 504
90-99 98.1 49.54 50.46 54 55
100+ 50.0 33.33 66.67 5 10
Source: de Bow (1854:
tables 30 and
31)
TABLE
4
Distribution of Males and Females
in the Donner
Party
by Seventh
Census
Age Classes
Age Class %
Males %
Females N Males N Females
1-4 43.75 56.25 7 9
5-9 63.64 36.36 7 4
10-14 61.54 38.46 8 5
15-19 66.66 33.33 2 1
20-29 68.18 31.82 15 7
30-39 75.00 25.00 6 2
40-49 42.86 57.14 3 4
50-59 50.00 50.00 1 1
60-69 100.00 0.00 3 0
Totals 52 33
Note: The two members of the Donner
Party
whose
ages are unknown are not included in this
table.
Analysis of single-cell residuals shows that two age classes of Donner Party
males are significantly
overrepresented:
20-29 and
60-69 (for
both,
p < .02).
On a more
general
level,
comparison
of the
percentages
of males and females
across
age categories
within the Donner
Party
and within the "white"
population
of Illinois shows that males are far better represented among
the Donners
than
they
are
among
contemporary
"white"
Illinoisans
(Tables
3 and
4). Indeed,
DONNER
PARTY DEATHS 231
compared
to the "white"
population
of Illinois,
there are
far more males in the
Donner
Party
as a whole than can be accounted
for
by
chance alone
(chi-square
= 6.51, p = .011). This overrepresentation
reaches
its peak
in the oldest
age class (where
it is caused
by the heads of the two Donner
families),
but it
is also pronounced among
Donner
Party
members between 20 and
39.
It is no great surprise
that the Donner
Party
was heavily
loaded with males
and that individuals between 20 and 39 tended strongly
to be male. Males
contributed a disproportionate
share of the western
emigration
in general
(Un-
ruh 1979). The two prime targets of western emigrants
at this time were
Oregon
and
California,
and
the greatest
sex ratio
imbalances
in the Seventh
Census are for precisely
these areas (Table
5). The greatest
imbalance was
for California,
a result
of the Gold Rush:
here, males between 20 and
29 years
of age outnumbered females of that
age by nearly
30-to-1. But even in more
agrarian Oregon,
males between
20 and 29 outnumbered females
3-to-1. Pre-
ponderantly
male
emigration
characterized
the
early
American movement
west,
and the Donner
Party
was no different
in this regard.
Indeed,
the proportion
of males between 20 and 39 years
of age in the Donner
Party
(70.0 percent)
is almost identical to the proportion
of "white" males
in Oregon
in 1850 (72.9
percent).
While
the male sex ratios
of the Donner
Party
are not typical
of the
population
from which
that
group
was drawn,
they are typical
of the agrarian
population
toward
which
it was heading.
DONNER PARTY DEATHS: AN OVERVIEW
Although
Sarah
Keyes died soon after the Reeds had left Springfield,
the
first death
in the Donner
Party
as it was finally
constituted occurred south
of
TABLE 5
Numbers of "White"
Females per 100 "White" Males in Oregon and
California
in 1850
Age Class Oregon California
1-4 92.5 91.7
5-9 102.9 93.6
10-14 96.5 71.6
15-19 77.5 19.1
20-29 33.7 3.5
30-39 40.6 4.5
40-49 47.0 6.0
50-59 38.7 8.9
60-69 37.0 17.7
70-79 31.2 29.6
80-89 - 53.3
90-99 100.0 33.3
100
+
Source: de Bow (1854:
table
33)
232 JOURNAL
OF
ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
the Great Salt
Lake,
when Luke
Halloran
(25 years
old),
who
had been
ill
from
the onset of the trip,
died
of "consumption."
By the time the party
reached
the foothills
of the Sierra
Nevada,
4 additional
males had
died,
all as a result
of passive
or active violence.
John
Snyder
(25) was killed
along
the Humboldt
River
by
James
Reed, leading
to Reed's
expulsion
from the group. Hardkoop
(60) lacked a wagon
or draft animal
of his own;
when
forcefully
denied access
to transportation,
he also succumbed
along
the Humboldt.
Wolfinger
(age
un-
known)
died in the Humboldt
Sink, apparently
murdered
by Reinhardt
and
Spitzer.
Slightly
further
along
the trail,
in the Truckee
Meadows,
William
Pike
(25) was accidentally
shot
and
killed
while
passing
a weapon
to his brother-in-
law,
William Foster.
The remaining
35 deaths
happened
after the winter
encampment
was es-
tablished near
Donner Lake.
Of these deaths,
22 occurred in the winter
en-
campment
itself, as members
of the group
awaited rescue. The remaining
13
deaths took place
either while members of the party attempted
to escape
on
their own or during
a series of rescue attempts
that were mounted from the
Sacramento
Valley.
Of these 13 deaths,
12 occurred
in the Sierra Nevada or
on its western
flank,
while one infant
(Elizabeth
Graves)
succumbed at Sutter's
Fort (now within
Sacramento,
California)
soon after she had
been rescued.
The exact causes of these deaths
are, of course, unknown,
but the general
cause is quite
clear.
Even though
it is possible
that one member of the party,
Lewis
Keseberg,
hastened
the
demise
of
one
or more
people
at the snowbound
Sierran
encampment
during
the spring
of 1847, and
the young
William
Hook
is said
to have died
after
gorging
himself
when
rescuers made food
available,
all or nearly
all
of the 35 died of some
combination
of starvation
and
exposure.
DONNER
PARTY DEATHS: DEMOGRAPHIC EXPECTATIONS
Modern
analyses
of human
mortality provide
a number
of expectations
con-
cerning
the distribution of deaths
within the Donner
Party.
The expectations
are straightforward:
1. Analyses
of age-specific mortality
rates have
long
shown that
high
death
rates characterize both the youngest
and oldest
members
of human
societies.
As Bogue
(1969)
has
noted,
mortality
is generally very high
between the ages
of 1 and 5, after which it decreases. By the age of 35, mortality begins
to
increase
again, becoming
increasingly
higher
in older
age classes. Under con-
ditions of stress, these patterns
are exacerbated. Rivers
(1988),
for
instance,
reports
that
during
the Ethiopian
famine in 1974,
children
under
5 years
of age
suffered
mortality
rates of between
25 and
30 percent
in three separate pop-
ulations.
Older individuals are likewise more vulnerable to famine,
and both
infants and the old suffer
higher mortality
rates due to hypothermia
(Rivers
1988; see also Harrison et al. 1988; Seaman,
Leivesley,
and Hogg 1984).
These patterns lead to the expectation that mortality in the Donner Party
should have struck particularly
hard at the youngest and oldest members of
the group.
DONNER
PARTY
DEATHS 233
2. Analyses
of the relationship
between sex and
mortality
have routinely
shown that for most (but
not all)
populations,
male
mortality
is greater
than
female
mortality
across
age classes (Bogue
1969;
de
Jong
1972).
The reasons
for these differences,
whether
cultural or biological,
remain unclear
(see, for
instance,
Nathanson
1984;
Stinson
1985;
Verbrugge
1985, 1989;
Waldron
1983).
Heavier male
mortality
across all
age classes and for most societies, however,
is well established.
In
stressed
situations,
the relationships
are somewhat less
clear.
Rivers
(1982,
1988)
has
argued cogently
that on purely biological grounds,
adult women should fare better
than adult men in conditions
marked
by famine
and/or extreme cold. On the average,
women
are smaller than
men, have a
greater proportion
of subcutaneous
fat, and
have a lower basal
metabolic rate
(indeed,
female basal metabolic
rates tend to become lower than
male rates
above the age of 5). Under cold
stress, inactive adult males also suffer
greater
core temperature
reduction
than inactive adult females
(Harrison
et al. 1988).
For these and other reasons
(see Widdowson
1976),
adult
women
and,
to some
extent, subadult females should fare better under conditions
marked
by
famine
and extreme cold than their male
counterparts.
That
they may
or may
not do
so, Rivers
(1982, 1988)
argues,
is due to cultural
factors,
a point
also made
by Stinson
(1985).
Males and females
in
Western
society
also differ
in
mortality
due to violence
(see, e.g., Waldron
1983). In the United
States in 1980, for
instance,
male deaths from both homicides and suicides occurred
at rates over
three times
greater
than those
for
females
(Wingard
1984;
see also Nathanson
1984),
a pattern
that existed
in the United
States in the nineteenth
century
as
well (de Bow 1855).
It is also
possible,
and
perhaps
likely,
that
tasks
requiring
short-term
physical
exertion,
performed primarily by adult male members
of the Donner
Party,
may have made those individuals even more vulnerable
to cold and famine.
Such tasks
ranged
from
clearing
the
way through
the Wasatch
Range
to hunting
forays
made from the Sierran
encampment.
Although impossible
to measure
at this remove, participation
in such activities
may
well have contributed to
increased male
mortality
within
the Donner
group.
This total ensemble
of facts leads to the expectation
that unless females
were
excluded from
important
resources
by
males,
mortality among
the Donner
Party
should
have been higher
for males than it was for females and that this
should have been the case for all
age classes.
3. Analyses
of the relationship
between
mortality
and the degree
to which
individuals
participate
in social networks
have
routinely
shown an inverse
re-
lationship
between these two variables: those individuals
with larger
social
networks have reduced
mortality
rates. For
instance,
in their
analysis
of Ala-
meda
County,
California,
mortality
rates among
individuals 30 years old and
older,
Berkman
and
Syme (1979)
demonstrated
greater
mortality
among
the
unmarried than
among
the married,
and
among
those with reduced contacts
with friends and relatives (see also Berkman 1984; Blazer 1982; House, Rob-
bins, and Metzner 1982; and the discussion in Verbrugge 1985). It is not fully
clear why social network size has such a positive effect on longevity under
234 JOURNAL
OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
normal
living
conditions,
though
sense of belonging,
access
to information,
and
the availability
of timely
assistance
all seem to play
a role (Berkman
1984).
Importantly,
these factors
appear
to operate
not only under normal
living
conditions but also in stressful situations
produced
by natural
hazards,
where
the availability
of assistance
and
information is clearly
of importance
(see, e.g.,
Neal et al. 1988).
Accordingly,
mortality
in
the Donner
Party
should have
been
inversely
scaled to the number
of social
contacts,
and in
particular
to the degree
of social
connectivity
as measured
by the size of the available
kin
group.
THE PATTERN
OF DONNER
PARTY DEATHS
Death and
survivorship
statistics for the Donner
Party by Seventh Census
age class and sex are presented
in Table 6. While these data are informative
by themselves,
they would be even more useful
if information were available
on age-specific
death
rates in Illinois
or in the United States as a whole for
the same time
period.
Unfortunately,
the data included
in the Seventh Census
are not to be trusted.
The Seventh Census
does not
present
information on
mortality
rates
by age
class, though
it does provide
information
on the total
number of deaths
by age
class for the interval between
June 1, 1849, and
June 1, 1850
(de Bow 1854,
1855).
Assuming
that
people reported
as dead
were not included
among
those
reported
as alive
during
the same
interval,
"white" death
rates
can be estimated
by summing
the reported
"white"
population
and "white" deaths
by age class.
The results are
provided
in
Table
7. That deaths have been severely
underre-
ported
should be clear: a 6.25 percent mortality
rate
for individuals over 100
TABLE 6
Donner Party Members: Sex and Survivorship by
Seventh Census Age Class
Male Female
Survived? Survived?
Age
Class Yes No %
No Yes No %
No Totals %
No
1-4 2 5 71.4 4 5 55.6 16 62.5
5-9 5 2 28.6 4 0 0.0 11 18.2
10-14 6 2 25.0 5 0 0.0 13 15.4
15-19 1 1 50.0 1 0 0.0 3 33.3
20-29 5 10 66.6 6 1 14.3 22 50.0
30-39 2 4 66.6 2 0 0.0 8 50.0
40-49 2 1 33.3 1 3 75.0 7 57.1
50-59 0 1 100.0 0 1 100.0 2 100.0
60-69 0 3 100.0 3 100.0
Age unknown 0 1 100.0 1 0 0.0 2 50.0
Totals 23 30 56.6 24 10 29.4 87 45.0
DONNER PARTY DEATHS 235
years of age seems highly
unlikely,
as does a 3.28 percent mortality
rate for
individuals under 5 years of age. Indeed,
the crude
death rate for individuals
80 years of age and older
implied
by these numbers,
8,132 per 100,000,
is far
less than
the death rate for individuals 75 years
and
older
in the United
States
in 1980, 11,753 per 100,000 (Wingard
1984). This underreporting
was rec-
ognized by J.D. de Bow, Superintendent
of the U.S. Census,
who
noted that
were the mortality
statistics
compiled by the Seventh Census correct, the
United States would be the healthiest nation ever known to have
existed on
earth
(de Bow 1854, 1855).
These numbers,
he concluded,
"have
very little
value"
(de Bow 1954:57).
The best contemporary mortality
statistics
available
are likely
those from Massachusetts
(U.S. Bureau of the Census
1853),
gen-
erated not by the U.S. Census,
but by the state itself. These are presented
in Table
8; I will use them
only
to provide
a broad basis for comparison
with
the Donner
Party
data.
I have
noted that
modem
demographic
studies lead to the expectation
that
male
mortality among
the Donner
Party
should have been much
higher
than
female
mortality.
That is, in fact, the case: males succumbed
at a rate ap-
proximately
twice that
of females
(56.6 percent
for
males versus 29.4 percent
for females;
see Table
6). Of the male
deaths,
5 occurred
prior
to the Sierran
encampment,
and 4 of these were due either directly
or indirectly
to male
aggression
(Hardkoop,
Pike, Snyder, Wolfinger).
Thus, of the 30 males who
died, 13.3 percent
died
as a result of violence;
there is no convincing
evidence
that
any of the Donner
Party
females died
violently. Eliminating
those deaths
known to have been due to violence,
the
male death rate
(53.1
percent)
remains
far
higher
than that
for females.
TABLE
7
Death Rates (in Percent)
by Seventh
Census
Age Classes for Illinois
"Whites"
in 1850
Age Class Population
Sizea Reported Deaths % Mortality
0-4 146, 151 4, 791 3.28
5-9 130,658 753 0.58
10-14 113,352 492 0.43
15-19 93,315 617 0.66
20-29 151,460 1,416 0.93
30-39 103,564 1,
138 1.10
40-49 63,003 931 1.48
50-59 34,458 630 1.83
60-69 14,
840 430 2.90
70-79 4,816 239 4.96
80-89 1,016 78 7.68
90-99 124 15 12.10
100+ 16 1 6.25
Source:
Calculated from de Bow (1854:
table 30 and
Appendix
table
4).
a. Includes
reported
deaths;
see text.
236 JOURNAL
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ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
TABLE
8
Distribution
of Mortality by Sex across
Seventh Census
Age Classes:
Massachusetts,
1850
Age Class %
Males % Females
0-4 7.11 6.05
5-9 1.17 0.98
10-14 0.45 0.57
15-19 0.57 0.83
20-29 1.00 1.17
30-39 1.25 1.35
40-49 1.51 1.33
50-59 2.07 1.65
60-69 3.48 2.96
70-79 6.77 5.76
80-89 15.00 13.47
90-99 35.24 27.54
Source:
U.S. Bureau
of the Census
(1853)
Not only did males succumb
at a higher
rate than
females,
but they also
died sooner.
Table 9 presents
the number of deaths
by grouped
months that
occurred
among
those who reached the Sierran
encampment
(and
thus
excludes
the 5 males who had
already
died). Of the 25 males
who died after
reaching
the Sierras,
14
had died
by the end
of
January,
the
remaining
11
dying
between
February
and
April.
Of the 10 female
deaths,
all occurred
during
these latter
months. This difference is highly
significant
(chi-square
= 9.33, p < .01) and
cannot
be accounted for by between-sex differences
in age, as will
become
clear.
Although
the exact causes of the deaths that occurred
in the Sierras cannot
be known,
there
is, as I have
noted,
little reason to doubt that some
combination
of famine and
exposure
was to blame.
Given that males and females within
family
groups
do not appear
to have had differential
access to resources,
it
would
appear
that the higher mortality
of males than females in the Sierras
is
in part
a result of greater
female endurance of cold stress and
famine
(Rivers
1982, 1988).
Modem
demographic
studies lead as well to the
expectation
that the
greatest
losses should have occurred
in the oldest and youngest age classes. This
expectation
is also met among
the members
of the Donner
Party.
Children
beneath the age of 5 (62.5 percent
mortality)
and adults above
the age of 49
(100 percent
mortality)
suffered the heaviest
losses. In
general,
it was better
to be a younger
member
of the Donner
Party
than an older one. For
females,
males, and the group
as a whole, those who survived were younger
on the
average
than those who did not. The males
who
survived
were an average
of
7.3 years younger
than those who
died,
while
surviving
females
averaged
6.3
DONNER
PARTY
DEATHS 237
TABLE 9
Chronology of Deaths by Sex after Establishment of the Sierran
Encampment
Months N of Males N of Females
December-Januarya 14 0
February-Aprilb 11 10
a. Names and
ages of individuals involved: Antoine
(23),
C. Burger
(30),
P. Dolan
(40),
J. Donner
(65), J. Fosdick
(23), F. Graves
(57), L. Keseberg
(1), L. Murphy
(12), J. Murphy
(15), J.
Reinhardt
(30), S. Shoemaker
(25),
J. Smith
(25), C. Stanton
(35), B. Williams
(24).
b. Names and
ages of individuals involved:
(1) male-J. Denton
(28), G. Donner
(62), I. Donner
(5), L. Donner
(3), S. Donner
(4), J. Eddy
(3), M. Elliot
(28), G. Foster
(4), F. Graves
(5),
W. Hook
(12),
A. Spitzer
(30);
(2) female-E. Donner
(45),
T. Donner
(45), M. Eddy
(1), E.
Eddy
(25), E. Graves
(1), E. Graves
(47),
A. Keseberg
(3), H. McCutcheon
(1), L. Murphy
(50), C. Pike
(1).
years younger
than
those who succumbed.
For the entire
group,
survivors
were on the average
7.5 years
younger
than
nonsurvivors
(Table 10).
There are, however,
some apparent
oddities
in the death rates for males.
In particular,
the death
rates for males
between 20 and 39 years of age are
extremely high:
66.6 percent
of the males of this age failed
to survive
(see
Table
6). Indeed,
most had
died well
before
mortality
had
begun
to strike
any
female
members of the party
(see Table
9). Whereas
higher
male
than
female
mortality
across all
age categories
is to be expected,
male
mortality
in these
particular
age classes, at rates
higher
than those for
immediately
younger
and
older
males,
needs to be explained
(compare,
for
instance,
the rank
orders of
death
rates for
Massachusetts
[see Table
8] with
those for
the Donner
Party
males).
Table 11 presents the fate, sex, and
family
group
size for Donner
Party
members
between 20 and
39 years
of
age
who
were
in
the Sierran
encampment
(excluded
are William
Herron
[25]
and William
McCutcheon
[30],
both of
whom
crossed the Sierra
Nevada well in advance of the main
party).
Those who
are
TABLE 10
Average Ages, in Years, of Donner Party Members: Males and Females,
Survivors and Nonsurvivors
Total
Group Survivors Nonsurvivors
Females 17.5 (33) 15.6 (23) 21.9 (10)
Males 21.8 (52) 17.7 (23) 25.0 (29)
All
members
combined 20.1 (85) 16.7 (46) 24.2 (39)
Note: The total
number of people
involved is given
in parentheses.
The two members
of the
Donner
Party
whose
ages are unknown
are not included
in this
table.
238 JOURNAL
OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
TABLE
11
Sex, Family Group Size, and Fate of Donner Party Members between 20
and 39 Years Old Who Reached the Sierran Encampment
Name Sex Family
Group
Size Fate
Antoine Male 1 Died
walking
out (snowshoe)
C. Burger Male 1 Died
in Sierra
camp
J. Denton Male 1 Died
walking
out (rescue)
E. Eddy Female 4 Died
in Sierra
camp
M. Elliot Male 1 Died
in Sierra
camp
J. Fosdick Male 12 Died
walking
out (snowshoe)
J. Reinhardt Male 1 Died
in Sierra
camp
S. Shoemaker Male 1 Died
in Sierra
camp
J. Smith Male 1 Died
in Sierra
camp
A. Spitzer Male 1 Died
in Sierra
camp
C. Stanton Male 1 Died
walking
out (snowshoe)
B. Williams Male 2 Died
in Sierra
camp
W. Eddy Male 4 Walked out (showshoe)
S. Fosdick Female 12 Walked out (showshoe)
S. Foster Female 13 Walked out (showshoe)
W. Foster Male 13 Walked out (showshoe)
M. Graves Female 12 Walked
out (showshoe)
N. James Male 1 Walked
out (rescue)
L. Keseberg Male 4 Walked
out (rescue)
P. Keseberg Female 4 Walked
out (rescue)
A. McCutcheon Female 3 Walked
out (showshoe)
H. Pike Female 13 Walked
out (showshoe)
M. Reed Female 6 Walked
out (rescue)
J. B. Trubode Male 1 Walked
out (rescue)
E. Williams Female 2 Walked
out (rescue)
listed as "rescue"
in Table 11 left the Sierran
encampment
with rescue parties
sent from the Sacramento
Valley.
Of all those leaving
with rescue groups, 84.4
percent (38 of 45) survived, 5 of the 7 nonsurvivors
being children 12 years
old or younger.
Those listed as "snowshoe"in
Table
11 were among
15 people who attempted
to walk from the Sierran encampment to the Sacramento Valley in late De-
cember. This torturous trip up and over the crest of the Sierra Nevada in full
winter conditions, using snowshoes made from materials
that happened
to be
at hand, took the survivors thirty-three days. But of the 15 who made the
attempt, 8 died. As in the Donner Party as a whole, losses among the snow-
shoers were differentially
distributed
across the sexes: 8 of 10 males died, but
all 5 females survived. The 8 males who died included 2 Indians from the
Sacramento
Valley
who had
joined the party
as part of a relief attempt and
who
were murdered
by William
Foster (indeed, if these Sacramento
Valley
natives
are counted as full
members of the Donner Party, then 18.8 percent of all male
DONNER
PARTY
DEATHS 239
deaths
in that
party
were due to violence).
The remaining
8 "white" males
in
the snowshoe
party ranged
from
12 to 57 years in age: the 2 of these males
who survived
averaged
28 years of age, whereas the 6 who died averaged
31.7 years.
The females
averaged
22 years.
Once
again,
it paid
to be younger,
and it paid
to be female.
Why,
then, was there such
high
mortality
among
males
between 20 and
39
years of age? Age-related
differences
in male basal
metabolic
rates cannot
account for
this
pattern.
While males
between 20 and
39 years
old have
slightly
higher
basal
metabolic
rates than
those between the ages of 40 and
64, the
differences
are not
significant
(Durnin
and Passmore
1967:
table
3.5). However,
as I have
noted, studies
of modern
mortality
have shown
that
the greater
the
kin group
size, the lower
the mortality
rate. In addition,
studies of behavior
during
natural
disasters
have shown
that kin groups-individuals
related
by
descent or by marriage-provide
key support
in those situations.
Perhaps
the
extremely high
mortality among
Donner
males
between 20 and 39 years old
is to be accounted for
by the relatively
small
number
of related
individuals
with
whom
they travelled.
Of the 25 individuals in the Sierran
encampment
between 20 and
39 years
old, the average
kin
group
size of the survivors was 6.8 individuals,
whereas
the average
kin
group
size of the nonsurvivors was only
2.3 individuals;
that
is, individuals of this age who survived had kin groups
approximately
three
times larger
than those who did not. Importantly,
and as Table
12A
shows,
this difference
characterizes losses within sexes as well. Surviving
females
between 20 and 39 years old had
kin
groups averaging
12.3 members,
while
the single
female of this age who died had
a kin
group
of only 4 members.
Among
males of this
age, the survivors had kin
groups
averaging
4.6 members,
whereas
nonsurviving
males had kin
groups averaging
2.1 individuals,
less than
half
the size of the kin
groups
of the survivors.
If males between
20 and
39
who did not reach the Sierran
encampment
are included,
the values
change,
but the conclusion does not. Average
kin
group
size of all
males between
20
and 39 who died was 2.7 individuals;
for male
survivors,
average
kin
group
size was 4.6 individuals.
TABLE
12
Kin Group Sizes for Selected Categories of Survivors and Nonsurvivors
among Donner Party Members Who Reached the Sierran Encampment
Age Class Survived? Males Females Total
A. 20-39 Yes 4.6 (N= 5) 12.3 (N= 8) 6.8 (N= 13)
No 2.1 (N= 11) 4.0 (N= 1) 2.3 (N
= 12)
B. 5-40 Yes 8.5 (N= 20) 10.5 (N= 19) 9.4 (N= 39)
No 5.5 (N
= 20) 4.0 (N= 1) 5.4 (N=21)
C. 5-49 Yes 8.3 (N=21) 10.5 (N= 19) 9.4 (N= 40)
No 5.5 (N= 20) 12.0 (N=4) 6.5 (N= 24)
240 JOURNAL
OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL
RESEARCH
It seems likely,
then, that
kin
group
size played
a major
role in mediating
deaths
among
Donner
Party
members between
20 and 39 years of age, just
as it does in modem
populations.
If so, the extremely
high
mortality
of Donner
Party
males of this age relates to the fact that their
support groups
were, on
the average,
so small.
On the other
hand,
only
a weak
case can be made that
support group
size
played
a significant
role
in
the
survivorship
of
Donner
Party
members
in
general.
Since
age was the overwhelming
factor
causing
mortality
in
individuals
younger
than
5 and older than
49, people
of these ages should
clearly
be excluded
from
any such general analysis.
In addition,
the only
person
in the Donner
Party
above the age of 40 who
survived
was 46-year-old
James
Reed
(see Table
1).
Banished from
the
party
after he killed
Snyder,
Reed
crossed
the Sierra Nevada
well
before the main
group
reached those mountains.
Although deeply
involved
in subsequent
rescue
efforts,
he was not among
those
in the Sierran
encamp-
ment
and
thus was not subject
to the greatest
trial the Donner
Party
endured.
This
being
the case, then
perhaps any analysis
of the relationship
between
kin
group
size and
mortality
that
attempts
to control
for the effects of age should
look
only
at individuals
between the ages of 5 and 40. If that is done,
then
kin
group
size appears
to have been of importance
for both
males and
females
across those years (Table 12B). Within
this age category,
the average
kin
group
size for surviving
males is 8.5, while the average
kin group
size of
nonsurviving
males is 5.5; the comparable figures
for females are 10.5 and
4.0.
However,
with samples
as small as these, single
individuals can have sig-
nificant
impacts,
and
an
equally
sound
case can be made
that individuals
between
40 and 49 should
be included
in the analysis
of kin group
effects. Tamsen
Donner,
who was 45, rejected
several
opportunities
to leave the Sierran
en-
campment
in order to stay with her husband,
62-year-old
George
Donner.
Since she was apparently
in very good
health
in mid-March,
when she refused
her last opportunity
to leave with a rescue
party
(Stewart
1960),
the case can
be made that kin
group
ties caused
her death and that it is special
pleading
to
exclude
those between 40 and
49 from the kin
group analysis.
If
people
of that
age are included,
then the benefit to males remains
(8.3 individuals
in kin
groups
of surviving
males
versus
5.5 for
nonsurviving
males),
but
there is no
benefit to be seen for females
(10.5
individuals in kin
groups
of
surviving
females
but 12.0 in those of nonsurviving
females;
see Table
12C).
For
those
between the ages of 20 and
39, however,
it appears
that kin
group
size played
a major
role in survivorship
and that males suffered
heavily
for
having
travelled on their own or with support
groups
that were simply
too
small.
CONCLUSIONS
When read as sheer historical narrative, the story of the Donner Party
provides a powerful, and as yet insufficiently
studied, look at the dynamics
of
DONNER
PARTY
DEATHS 241
a small and
diverse human
group
under conditions
that were at best tremen-
dously
stressful and at worst catastrophic.
When read
as biology,
the story
becomes
one of natural selection
in
action.
Analysis
of the fate of the individual
members of the Donner
Party
shows that
survivorship
within this group
was
mediated almost
entirely by age, sex, and the size of the kin
group
with which
each member travelled.
Given that
most deaths that occurred within
the party
resulted
from a combination
of famine
and
exposure
to cold, Donner
Party
mortality
statistics also
provide
a chance
to examine
the suggestion
of Rivers
(1982, 1988)
and
others
(e.g., Widdowson
1976)
that females are better able
than males to withstand
such conditions. These predictions,
derived
solely
from
considerations of male
and female
physiology,
are fully supported by the
Donner
Party statistics. The pattern
of death and survivorship
within
the
Donner
Party
thus both
follows
from and
amplifies
our
understanding
of
patterns
of human
mortality
under conditions marked
by famine
and
extreme
cold.
NOTES
1. I thank
Brigham
D. Madsen,
David
B. Madsen,
Philip May, Stanley
Rhine,
Lorna
A. Rhodes,
Eric A.
Smith,
and
Gary
Topping
for
extremely
helpful
comments
on
a draft
of this
paper,
and
R.L.
Bettinger
for a helpful
suggestion
made
early
on.
2. See Everitt
(1977)
for
a discussion
of the
analysis
of residuals within the single
cells
of contingency
tables.
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