An Assessment of the Trend and Projected Future Values of Climatic Variables in Niger Delta Region, Nigeria

Abstract

This study assessed the trend and projected future values of climatic variables in the Niger Delta Region. Annual mean time series data of climatic variables from 1971 to December 2007 were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) for the study. Multistage sampling techniques were used in the random selection of states, local government, communities and rural farming households. Data were analyzed through the use of descriptive statistics to describe the socio-economic characteristics of the rural farming households in the region. Line graph was used to determine the trend of the climatic variables (temperature, and rainfall) and Growth model was used to predict the future values of climatic variables (temperature, and rainfall) in the Niger Delta Region. Most rural farming households were married and headed by male with a mean household size of 10 persons. Primary school level of education dominated rural farming households with a low annual income of N73, 896 ($480) per annum. There was an increasing trend in mean annual temperature but a decreasing and increasing trend in mean annual rainfall values. The statistical projected future values of mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall show an increasing trend in the Region. It is recommended that Meteorological station units should be established in the rural farming area especially in the Niger Delta region where accessibility is extremely difficult. This will make available meteorological data (information) to the reach of the poor rural farming household for their Agricultural production and for the attainment of food security status in the Region.

Full text

Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences 4(2): 165-170, 2012
ISSN: 2041-3890
© Maxwell Scientific Organization, 2012
Submitted: February 02, 2012 Accepted: March 10, 2012 Published: March 26, 2012
Corresponding Author: P.C. Ike, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension Delta State University, Asaba Campus,
Asaba, Nigeria 165
An Assessment of the Trend and Projected Future Values of Climatic
Variables in Niger Delta Region, Nigeria
P.C. Ike and P.O. Emaziye
Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Delta State University, Asaba Campus,
Asaba, Nigeria
Abstract: This study assessed the trend and projected future values of climatic variables in the Niger Delta
Region. Annual mean time series data of climatic variables from 1971 to December 2007 were collected from
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) for the study. Multistage sampling techniques were used in the
random selection of states, local government, communities and rural farming households. Data were analyzed
through the use of descriptive statistics to describe the socio-economic characteristics of the rural farming
households in the region. Line graph was used to determine the trend of the climatic variables (temperature,
and rainfall) and Growth model was used to predict the future values of climatic variables (temperature, and
rainfall) in the Niger Delta Region. Most rural farming households were married and headed by male with a
mean household size of 10 persons. Primary school level of education dominated rural farming households with
a low annual income of N73, 896 ($480) per annum. There was an increasing trend in mean annual temperature
but a decreasing and increasing trend in mean annual rainfall values. The statistical projected future values of
mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall show an increasing trend in the Region. It is recommended
that Meteorological station units should be established in the rural farming area especially in the Niger Delta
region where accessibility is extremely difficult. This will make available meteorological data (information)
to the reach of the poor rural farming household for their Agricultural production and for the attainment of food
security status in the Region.
Key words: Climate change, climatic variables, Niger Delta, trend
INTRODUCTION
Climate change is defined as a change of climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity
that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and
which is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods” (United Nations
Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC,
1992). Climate change according to IPCC (2007) refers to
changes in modern climate which are 90-95% likely to
have been in part caused by human action.
Climate change leads to gradual changes in mean
temperatures and rainfall that will lead to loss of
biodiversity and ecosystem functioning of natural
habitats, loss of arable land due to increased aridity and
associated salinity, ground water depletion and sea level
rise, changes in the suitability of land for different types
of crops and pasture, changes in the incidence and vectors
of different types of pests and diseases, changes in health
and productivity of forests, changes in the distribution,
productivity and community composition of marine
resources, changes in livelihood opportunities and can
also lead to internal and international migration (FAO,
2008).
Climate change has become more threatening to the
sustainable development of agriculture globally. The
“mean global temperatures have been increasing in line
with precipitation increases since 1850, mainly due to the
accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”
(FAO, 2007). This situation is not favourable to
Agricultural production and may lead to food insecurity
situation in Nigeria which mostly depends on climate for
Agricultural production. This is as observed by Adejuwon
(2004), that Nigerian Agriculture depend highly on
climate because temperature, sunlight, water, relative
humidity are the main drivers of crop growth and yield.
Climate shocks can also permanently affect people’s
health and education, leading to low agricultural activities
and hunger. Higher temperatures are likely to increase
cardiovascular illness, especially in the tropical countries
(Confalonieri et al., 2007). Climate change is creating
increased uncertainty about future temperature and
precipitation regimes which makes investments in
agriculture and other weather-dependent livelihoods
inherent more risky (FAO, 2008). Apart from increase in
temperature, the Niger Delta Region in also faced with the
incidence of oil spillage as reported by Civil Liberties
Organization (CLO, 1996) that between 1976 to 1990, the

Asian J. Agric. Sci., 4(2): 165-170, 2012
166
region experienced 2676 cases of oil spills and annual
average spills in Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta States are 300
cases. The devastating impact of this incidence resulting
from the activities of oil industry on the farmlands, crops,
economic trees, creeks, lakes, fishing equipment is such
that the people can no longer engage in productive
farming and fishing. Food insecurity and hunger are
eminent in the region. The risk absorption capacity of
poor people especially in the Niger Delta region is such
that they are unlikely to be able to cope with the added
risk imposed by climate change.
A variety of crops such as maize, yam and cassava
produced in the Niger Delta region depend on rainfall for
their optimum performance. But in line with IPCC (2007)
reported that precipitation levels are on the downward
trend. The decrease and irregular rainfall pattern pose a
problem that need to be addressed to save the Niger Delta
region from low agricultural production. This is in line
with the prediction reported by IPCC (2007) that climate
change would severely compromise agricultural
production and access to food. The following research
questions were addressed:
CWhat is the trend of climatic variables in the Region?
CWhat are the projected future values of climatic
variables in the Region?
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The study area: The Niger Delta area was focused for
this study due do to its vast gas flaring related activities
and climate change events that frequently occurred in the
area. The Niger Delta is a coastal environment that is
located in the Atlantic coast of Southern Nigeria where
River Niger divides into numerous tributaries. It is the
second largest delta in the world with a coastline spanning
about 450 km terminating at the Imo entrance (Awosika,
1995). The region spans over 20,000 km2 and it has been
described as the largest wetland in Africa and among the
three largest in the world. It is richest wetland in the
world (Iyayi, 2004). The region (Niger Delta) is divided
into four ecological zones namely coastal Inland zone,
Mangrove swamp zone, freshwater zone and low forest
zone (ANEE, 2004). The Niger Delta region has the high
biodiversity characteristics of extensive swamp and forest
areas, with many unique species of plants and animals.
The Niger Delta is rich in oil and several decades of oil
companies’ activities in the area had much demand on the
ecosystem of the region, furthermore, gas flaring as a
component of climate change is a huge issue in the region.
Okecha (2000) showed that human activities contributed
to climate change and other related health and socio-
economic problems.
The Niger Delta region is made up of nine states
namely, Cross River, Edo, Delta, Abia, Imo, Bayelsa,
Table 1: States in Niger delta region, land area and population
States Land area (km2) Population
Abia 4,877 2,833,99
Akwa Ibom 6,806 3,920,208
Bayelsa 11,007 1,703,358
Cross River 21,930 2,888,966
Delta 17,163 4,098,391
Edo 19,698 3,218,332
Imo 5,165 3,934,899
Ondo 15,086 3,441,014
Rivers 10,378 5,185,420
Total 112,110 31,224,587
National Population Commission (NPC, 2006)
River, Akwa-Ibom and Ondo States (Table 1). The region
is with 25% of the Nigerian population of total of about
140 million people (2006 Census). The Niger Delta region
land mass represents 12% of Nigeria’s total surface area
(NPC, 2006).
More than 31 million people of more than 40 ethnic
groups including the Annang, Ibibio, Efik, Ijaw and Igbo
people speaking some 250 dialects live in the present day
Niger Delta region (Jike, 2004). The Niger Delta has been
described as heterogeneous, multi-cultural and ethnically
diverse region (Akoroda, 2000). The Niger Delta lie
predominantly in the tropics having two seasons-the wet
and dry seasons. The wet season begins from May to
September, while the dry season begins in October and
ends in April. The Niger Delta is located on latitude
4º15!N and 4º50!N and longitude 5º25!E and 7º37!E
Methodology: Multistage sampling procedure was
employed in random selection of states, local government
areas, communities and rural farming households for the
study. Firstly, four states were randomly selected from the
nine states that make up the Niger Delta. These states are
Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta and Ondo states. Secondly,
two local government areas were selected from each of
these states. Thirdly, two communities from each of the
local government areas were selected, making it up to 16
communities. Finally, the rural farming households in the
sampled communities formed the sample frame. Fifty
rural farming households were randomly selected from
each of the sampled communities making it up to 800
households. Data for this study were obtained using
personal interview and structured questionnaire survey
and out of the 800 respondents 739 was utilized for this
study.
Data collection: Annual mean time series data from
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) that include
the following; temperature, and rainfall from January,
1971 to December, 2009 were collected for the study.
Method of data analysis:
Trend analysis: Line graph was used to determine the
trend of the climatic variables (temperature, and rainfall)
in the Niger Delta Region.

Asian J. Agric. Sci., 4(2): 165-170, 2012
167
Table 2: Socio-economic characteristics of respondents
Bayelsa Cross river Delta Ondo Niger Delta
Variables (n = 186) (%) (n = 172) (n = 198) (n = 183) (n = 739)
Age (Years)
30-39 24(2.2) 24 (2.3) 44 (6.0) 19 (2.6) 111 (15.0)
40-49 76 (10.3) 62 (8.4) 79 (10.7) 61 (8.3) 278 (37.6)
50-59 68 (9.2) 66 (8.9) 64 (8.7) 78 (10.6) 276 (37.4)
60-69 18 (2.4) 19 (2.6) 11 (1.5) 23 (3.1) 771 (9.6)
70-79 0 (0.0) 1 (0.1) 0 (0.0) 2 (0.3) 3 (0.4)
Mean 49 years 49 years 47 years 51 years 49 years
Gender distribution
Female 83 (11.2) 82 (11.1) 94 (12.7) 72 (9.7) 331 (44.8)
Male 103 (13.9) 90 (12.2) 104 (14.1) 111 (15.0) 408 (55.2)
Marital status
Single 11 (1.5) 22 (3.0) 14 (1.9) 6 (0.8) 53 (7.2)
Married 120 (16.2) 90 (12.2) 129 (17.5) 118 (16.0) 457 (61.8)
Widow 33 (4.5) 17 (2.3) 29 (3.9) 29 (3.9) 108 (14.6)
Widower 4 (0.5) 2 (0.3) 3 (0.4) 4 (0.5) 13 (1.8)
Divorced 18 (2.4) 41 (5.6) 23 (3.1) 26 (3.5) 108 (14.6)
Educational status
Informal 55 (7.4) 48 (6.5) 61 (8.2) 29 (3.9) 193 (26.1)
Primary 78 (10.5) 61 (8.3) 76 (10.3) 50 (6.8) 265 (35.9)
Secondary 37 (5.0) 41 (5.6) 42 (5.7) 72 (9.7) 192 (26.0)
Tertiary 16 (2.2) 22 (3.0) 19 (2.6) 32 (4.3) 89 (12.0)
Mode Primary Primary Primary Secondary Primary
Household size
2-4 5 (0.7) 7 (0.9) 8 (1.1) 2 (0.3) 22 (3.0)
5-7 26 (3.5) 45 (6.1) 41 (5.6) 60 (8.1) 172 (23.3)
8-10 71 (9.6) 66 (8.9) 75 910.2) 86 (11.6) 298 (40.3)
11-13 54 (7.3) 38 (5.1) 47 (6.4) 33 (4.5) 172 (23.3)
14-16 30 (3.9) 16 (2.2) 27 (3.7) 2 (0.3) 75 (10.1)
Mean (persons) 10 9 10 9 10
Annual income (N)
21,000-60,000 89 (12.0) 62 (8.4) 148 (20.0) 12 (1.6) 311 (42.1)
61,000-100,000 95 (12.9) 85 (11.5) 49 (6.6) 65 (8.8) 294 (39.8)
101,000-140,000 2 (0.3) 25 (3.4) 0 (0.1067 ) (9.1)95 (12.9)
141,000-180,000 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 28 (3.8) 28 (3.8)
181,000-220,000 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 6 (0.8) 6 (0.8)
221,000-260,000 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 5 (0.7) 5 (0.7)
Mean (N) 61,7907 1,895 50,803 113,068 73,896
Figures in parenthesis ( ) are percentages; Field survey data (2011)
Growth model: Growth model was used to predict the
future values of climatic variables (temperature, and
rainfall). This model was specified as linear, quadratic and
cubic equations.
The equations are as follows:
Chf= a (1+i)t +e (Linear) … ix
Chf= a (1+i)t +b (1+i)2t +e (Quadratic)…x
Chf= a (1+i)t +b (1+i)2t + c(1+i)3t+e (Cubic)…xi
where,
CHf = Climatic variables (Temperature and
Rainfall)
I = Rate of growth
t = Time horizon (integer values starting
from 1 to 38 years)
e = Error term
a, b, c, and d = Coefficients of the model
The cubic functional form that fits the data best was
selected.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Socio-economic characteristics of respondents: The
mean age of respondents (households) in the Niger Delta
region of Nigeria is 49 years. Farming activities are the
major occupations in the area while male headed
households are dominant in the area (Table 2). Most rural
farming households were married confirming that they
were responsible, matured and conscious on the level of
climate change trend in the Region. Primary school level
of educational attainment is dominant in the area while
the household size has a mean size of 10 persons per
household. The mean annual income of the rural farming
households in the Niger Delta region was N73, 896
($480) revealing a low annual income level.
Trend analysis of temperature in the Niger delta
region, Nigeria: Statistical temperature data from 1971-
2009 recorded an increasing trend across the randomly
selected states in the Niger Delta region. The mean
maximum temperature (31.49ºC) was recorded in Delta
State while th e mean minimum temp erature (30. 67ºC) wa s

Asian J. Agric. Sci., 4(2): 165-170, 2012
168
29
30
31
32
33
T
e
m
p degree celsius
75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Yea r
Cross rive
Bayelsa
Delta
Ondo
100
Rainfall (
m
m
)
75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Yea r
Cross rive
Bayelsa
Delta
Ondo
200
300
400
500
600
700
Table 3: Analysis of climatic variables (temperature) record from 1971-2009 (Niger delta region)
Temperature Bayelsa Cross River Delta Ondo Niger delta
Mean (ºC) 31.27 30.66 31.49 31.37 31.18
Standard deviation (ºC) 0.41 0.39 0.53 0.42 0.44
Max. temperature (ºC) 31.93 31.42 32.6 032.24 32.05
Min temperature (ºC) 30.23 29.61 30.09 30.41 30.08
Trend of coefficient (ºC/year) 0.48 0.36 0.57 0.03 0.36
Coefficient of variation (CV) (%) 1.32 1.27 1.68 1.34 1.40
NIMET and Author computed result (2011)
Fig. 1: Trend of temperature data for Niger delta region (1971-
2009)
Fig. 2: Trend of rainfall data for Niger delta region (1971-2009)
recorded in Cross River. The Trend in coefficients shows
a significant increase in temperature in Delta, Bayelsa and
Cross River while in Ondo State there was no significant
increase in temperature. The maximum and minimum
temperature values of 32.05 and 30.08ºC were recorded
respectively in the Region (Table 3). The graph of
temperature over time as presented in Fig. 1 shows an
increasing trend. The increase in trend of temperature
confirms the report by Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that an increase in
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) will
force a rise in global surface temperature. Also as
observed by FAO (2008) Climate change will lead to
gradual changes in mean temperatures and rainfall. The
mean temperature of 30.67 to 31.49ºC recorded in Cross
River and Delta State respectively was confirmed by the
report of Adejuwon (2004) that “in the far South, mean
maximum temperature is between 30.0 and 32.0ºC while
in the North it is between 36.0 and 38.0ºC.
Trend analysis of rainfall in the Niger delta region,
Nigeria: The rainfall data from 1971-2009 recorded a
decreasing and increasing trend across the randomly
selected states in the Niger Delta region, Nigeria. The
maximum and minimum rainfall volume of 321.84 and
153.38 mm respectively recorded over the period (1971-
2009) in the Niger Delta region (Table 4). The maximum
rainfall volume of 240.60 mm was recorded in Cross
River State while the minimum rainfall volume recorded
over the period (1971-2009) is 176.11 mm in Ondo State.
This reveals that the volume of rainfall in Cross River
State was higher than that in Ondo State during the period
under study. The graph of rainfall over time as presented
in Fig. 2. The trend coefficient of rainfall in the entire
studied area was not significant in Bayelsa, Cross River
and Ondo State while in Delta State it was significant
with a negative trend coefficient. This shows that there
was a decreasing trend of rainfall in Delta state. The entire
Niger Delta region witnessed low coefficient of variation
of 13.11%. This decrease of rainfall and increase in
temperature is as a result of climate change.
Predicted future values of climatic variables in the
Niger delta region: Projected future values of climatic
variables (temperature and rainfall) in the Niger Delta
region, Nigeria shows an increasing trend in temperature
and rainfall values. Cross River State will witness a
higher rainfall volume than other States randomly selected
for the study. The Cross River value of rainfall projected
has a minimum value of 259.07 mm and maximum value
of 290.08 mm in the year 2015 and 2050, respectively, as
compared to Ondo State with the projected minimum
value of rainfall 194.93 mm and maximum value 229.92
mm in the year 2015 and 2050, respectively (Table 5).
The future value of temperature projection was higher in
Delta State that has 32.25ºC minimum and 33.34ºC
maximum in the year 2015 and 2050, respectively as
compared to Cross River State with a projected value of
temperature of 31.12ºC minimum and 31.71ºC maximum
in the year 2015 and 2050, respectively. The entire
studied area will witness a maximum and minimum
rainfall of 248.78 and 223.81 mm in the year 2050 and
2015, respectively. Also the entire Niger Delta Region

Asian J. Agric. Sci., 4(2): 165-170, 2012
169
Table 4: Analysis of rainfall data from 1971-2009 (Niger delta region)
Rainfall Bayelsa Cross river Delta Ondo Niger delta
Mean (mm) 190.53 240.60 231.41 176.11 209.66
Standard deviation (mm) 20.49 30.39 27.31 30.38 27.14
Max. rainfall (mm) 239.05 321.84 283.05 222.37 266.58
Min rainfall (mm) 151.37 170.79 189.02 102.35 153.38
Trend of coefficient (mm /year) 0.01 0.08 -0.32 0.26 0.01
Coefficient of variation (CV) (%) 10.75 12.63 11.80 17.25 13.11
NIMET and Author computed result (2011)
Table 5: Predicted future values of climate variable (temperature and rainfall)
Temperature(oC) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Beyelsa 31.71 31.81 31.91 32.01 32.11 32.21 32.31 32.41
Cross River 31.12 31.21 31.30 31.40 31.49 31.58 31.68 81.77
Delta 32.25 32.40 32.56 32.71 32.87 33.03 33.18 33.34
Ondo 31.75 31.83 31.91 31.99 32.07 32.15 32.23 32.31
Niger delta region 31.71 31.81 31.92 3 2.03 32.13 32.24 32.35 32.46
Rainfall (mm)
Beyelsa 197.88 199.76 201.66 203.58 205.52 207.48 209.45 211.44
Cross river 259.07 263.29 267.57 271.93 276.36 280.86 285.43 290.08
Delta 243.38 246.19 249.02 257.89 254.79 257.72 260.69 263.69
Ondo 194.93 199.59 204.35 209.22 214.22 219.33 224.56 229.92
Niger delta region 223.81 227.21 230.65 235.65 237.72 241.35 245.03 248.78
Author computed projected values (2011)
will witness a minimum and maximum temperature value
of 31.71 and 32.46ºC in the year 2015 and 2050,
respectively (Table 5). But generally there will be an
increase in both rainfall and temperature in the studied
area (Niger Delta region, Nigeria) in accordance with
IPCC (2007) Projection report that rainfall in the very
humid regions of Southern Nigeria in expected to
increase. This may be accompanied by increase in
cloudiness and rainfall intensity, particularly during
severe storm. IPCC (2007) also confirmed that
precipitation decrease in the humid regions of West
Africa, including Southern Nigeria, since the beginning of
the century is about 10-25% or about 2-5% per decade. If
this trend persists, rainfall in the humid region of Southern
Nigeria may be about 50 to 80% of the 1900 values by
2100 with increase in ocean temperature. Evidence from
Sub-Saharan Africa indicates that rainfall variability,
projected to increase substantially, also reduces GDP and
increase poverty (Brown et al., 2009). The increase in
projected future values of temperature was in accordance
to the findings of Stern (2006) that if emissions continue
at today’s rate, the global average temperature is likely to
rise by 2-3ºC over the next 50 years, with implications for
rainfall and the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The study findings revealed the Niger Delta region;
Nigeria had 49 years of mean age of respondents
(households) engaging in farming activities and
dominated by male headed households. Most rural
farming households were married confirming that they
were responsible, matured and conscious on the level of
food production and climate change factors that affect
food security in the Region. Primary school level of
education dominated the Region while the household size
was with a mean size of 10 persons showing a large
household size. The mean annual income of the rural
farming households in the Niger Delta region was N73,
896 ($480) revealing a low annual income level due to
effect of climate events in the Region. The trend analysis
shows an increasing trend in mean temperature values and
a decreasing trend in the mean rainfall values in the Delta
state, but increasing trend in Bayelsa, Cross River and
Ondo state. The statistical projected future values of mean
temperature and rainfall shows an increasing trend in the
values. Meteorological station units should be established
in the rural farming areas especially in the Niger Delta
region where accessibility is extremely difficult. This will
make available meteorological data (information) to the
reach of the poor rural farming households for the
attainment of food security status.
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