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An International Research and Applications Project (IRAP) Caribbean Workshop Report: Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience
Abstract
The International Research and Application Project (IRAP) hosted a two-day workshop that followed the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF). The workshop contributed to and advanced discussions about the application and impacts of seasonal climate information. It also focused on developing partnerships for future projects that help develop regional capacity to prepare for and respond to climate risks. Interviews, focus groups, and group discussions during the workshop and preceding CariCOF explored the interrelation between the physical climate and social contexts, producing a wealth of information from which future efforts can draw.
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It has been argued that major, purposeful action often resulting in significant changes in structure or function, known as transformational adaptation, is required in some areas of the agricultural sector to adapt to climate change and other driving factors. Yet there is limited understanding of what factors instigate and facilitate this scale of change. From a social science perspective, one key question remains: to what extent do agribusinesses need social capital to plan and implement large-scale, transformational adaptation options, compared with incremental-scale adaptations? Data drawn from Australian primary industries found that those undertaking transformational change had more far-reaching information and knowledge network connections yet less extensive social links to family, friends and colleagues. These findings demonstrate that strong access to knowledge and weak social ties increases the ability to facilitate action that differs from established social norms, hence empowering transformational adaptors to plan and implement novel strategies and options.
Throughout at least the past several centuries, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has played a significant role in human response to climate. Over time, increased attention on ENSO has led to a better understanding of both the physical mechanisms, and the environmental and societal consequences of the phenomenon. The prospects for seasonal climate forecasting emerged from ENSO studies, and were first pursued in ENSO studies. In this paper, we review ENSO's impact on society, specifically with regard to agriculture, water, and health; we also explore the extent to which ENSO-related forecasts are used to inform decision making in these sectors. We find that there are significant differences in the uptake of forecasts across sectors, with the highest use in agriculture, intermediate use in water resources management, and the lowest in health. Forecast use is low in areas where ENSO linkages to climate are weak, but the strength of this linkage alone does not guarantee use. Moreover, the differential use of ENSO forecasts by sector shows the critical role of institutions that work at the boundary between science and society. In a long-term iterative process requiring continual maintenance, these organizations serve to enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of forecasts and related climate services.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.
The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, we identify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such as limited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) the need for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations. We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.
Climate services involve the generation, provision, and contextualization of information and knowledge derived from climate research for decision making at all levels of society. These services are mainly targeted at informing adaptation to climate variability and change, widely recognized as an important challenge for sustainable development. This paper reviews the development of climate services, beginning with a historical overview, a short summary of improvements in climate information, and a description of the recent surge of interest in climate service development including, for example, the Global Framework for Climate Services, implemented by the World Meteorological Organization in October 2012. It also reviews institutional arrangements of selected emerging climate services across local, national, regional, and international scales. By synthesizing existing literature, the paper proposes four design elements of a climate services evaluation framework. These design elements include: problem identification and the decision-making context; the characteristics, tailoring, and dissemination of the climate information; the governance and structure of the service, including the process by which it is developed; and the socioeconomic value of the service. The design elements are intended to serve as a guide to organize future work regarding the evaluation of when and whether climate services are more or less successful. The paper concludes by identifying future research questions regarding the institutional arrangements that support climate services and nascent efforts to evaluate them.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.
Throughout at least the past several centuries, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has played a significant role in human response to climate. Over time, increased attention on ENSO has led to a better understanding of both the physical mechanisms, and the environmental and societal consequences of the phenomenon. The prospects for seasonal climate forecasting emerged from ENSO studies, and were first pursued in ENSO studies. In this paper, we review ENSO's impact on society, specifically with regard to agriculture, water, and health; we also explore the extent to which ENSO-related forecasts are used to inform decision making in these sectors. We find that there are significant differences in the uptake of forecasts across sectors, with the highest use in agriculture, intermediate use in water resources management, and the lowest in health. Forecast use is low in areas where ENSO linkages to climate are weak, but the strength of this linkage alone does not guarantee use. Moreover, the differential use of ENSO forecasts by sector shows the critical role of institutions that work at the boundary between science and society. In a long-term iterative process requiring continual maintenance, these organizations serve to enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of forecasts and related climate services.
A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in
climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily
observational surface temperature and precipitation data from weather stations for an assessment of quality and homogeneity
and for the calculation of climate indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends
in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961–2010 and
1986–2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. In general, the
indices based on minimum temperature show stronger warming trends than indices calculated from maximum temperature.
The frequency of warm days, warm nights and extreme high temperatures has increased while fewer cool days, cool
nights and extreme low temperatures were found for both periods. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and
the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum
number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986–2010. Correlations between
indices and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index suggest that temperature variability and, to a lesser extent,
precipitation extremes are related to the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures: stronger associations
are found in August and September for the temperature indices and in June and October for some of the precipitation indices.
The authors describe how to use Net-Map,1 a low-tech, low-cost, interview-based mapping tool that can be used by researchers, facilitators, and implementers to (1) visualize implicit knowledge and understand the interplay of complex formal and informal networks, power relations, and actors’ goals; (2) uncover sources of conflicts as well as potentials for cooperation; (3) facilitate knowledge exchange and learning processes; and (4) develop visions and strategies to achieve common goals. The authors show that the tool can produce both qualitative and quantitative data to increase network understanding by going beyond the purely structure-driven approach of social network analysis (SNA) and combine structural measures with measures of attributes of actors, especially concerning their perceived influence and their goals. The authors present experiences from a field study from Ghana to illustrate the procedure and briefly discuss possible applications of the tool.
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration.
Continuing progress in the fields of meteorology, climatology, and fire ecology has enabled more proactive and risk-tolerant wildland fire management practices in the United States. Recent institutional changes have also facilitated the incorporation of more advanced climate and weather research into wildland fire management. One of the most significant changes was the creation of Predictive Services in 1998, a federal interagency group composed, in part, of meteorologists who create climate- and weather-based fire outlooks tailored to fire manager needs. Despite the numerous forecast products now available to fire managers, few studies have examined how these products have affected their practices. In this paper the authors assess how fire managers in the Southwest region of the United States perceive and incorporate different types of information into their management practices. A social network analysis demonstrates that meteorologists have become central figures in disseminating information in the regional interagency fire management network. Interviews and survey data indicate that person-to-person communication during planning phases prior to the primary fire season is key to Predictive Services’ success in supporting fire managers’ decision making. Over several months leading up to the fire season, predictive forecasts based on complex climate, fuels, and fire-risk models are explained to fire managers and updated through frequent communication. The study’s findings suggest that a significant benefit of the information sharing process is the dialogue it fosters among fire managers, locally, regionally, and nationally, which better prepares them to cooperate and strategically plan for the fire season.