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We use logit and Markov switching models to assess, in (pseudo-)real-time, the ability of 27 indicators to predict systemic financial crises in the European Union. Before the global financial crisis (GFC), some models provided early warning signals, but it is unclear whether a specific model would have been favored over other candidate models providing contradictory evidence. Only after the GFC do debt service ratios, credit-to-GDP gaps as well as house price-to-income and house price-to-rent ratios appear as robust early warning indicators. Our results highlight that the predictive ability of indicators may change due to new risk factors or policy actions.
This paper is intended to provide policymakers with an overview of how technology and knowledge flow at the regional and global levels. After presenting the economic role of knowledge as well as a number of basic concepts related to its dissemination, this paper identifies certain pre-requisites for successful knowledge transfer. It subsequently discusses various channels for transfer and diffusion, including integration by firms in global value chains, participation by public and private actors in knowledge networks, and the movement of skilled individuals among institutions and across geographic regions. Throughout, the paper highlights the gradual nature of knowledge diffusion, as well as the role of collaboration in the generation, dissemination, and adaptation of innovative solutions. Finally, the paper identifies the types of policy environments that may best attract and accelerate knowledge flows, suggesting certain actions that policymakers can take to improve their region’s innovative capacity.
To explain political processes from a path dependence approach has been an increasingly trend within political science (Pierson 2000 and 2004; Tilly 2007). Claims about path dependence processes have been proposed from classic works of comparative politics, such as Lipset and Rokkan´s analysis of European party systems (Lipset and Rokkan 1967), to more recent analysis on topics such as labor incorporation in Latin America (Collier and Collier 1991), the outcome of state-building processes in Europe (Spruyt 2007), and the democratization (Tilly 2007). However, this approach to the study of politics has been relatively absent in the literature on the rule of law. Trying to contribute to solve this shortcoming in this field, I develop in this paper a preliminary theoretical framework aiming to show that the origin and stability of lawlessness can be described as a path dependence process. I conceptualize path dependence process as a causal argument about both production and reproduction of a stable political outcome. Following Ira Katznelson´s caution about the limit of path dependence theory, that is, "without a designation both of outcomes and of the manner in which they are reproduced as constitutive and formative features of social reality, it is impossible either to answer question about the duration of formative moment or distinguish between the production and reproduction of its results" (Katznelson 2003: 289), I present both the initial temporal process (production) and the social mechanism that explain the stability of a outcome (reproduction), in this case, of the lawlessness. Thus, I argue that levels of violence and disputed political order in the past can explain the level of lawlessness in a country at the present. Without and stable and strong establishment of a political authority it is less likely the institutional development necessary to the rule of law. On the order hand, the notion of focal point is the causal mechanism that explains the stability of the lawlessness. As it is well-known in game theory, a focal point is a solution that people will tend to use in the absence of communication, because it seems natural, special or relevant to them. Individuals largely hold on the time their choices for informal behavior because of a "frequency-dependent equilibrium" (Bardhan 1997).
Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) have become increasingly powerful over the last decade. Programs taking advantage of this architecture can achieve large performance gains and almost all new solutions and initiatives in high performance computing are aimed in that direction. To write programs that can offload the computation onto the GPU and utilize its power, new technologies are needed. The recent introduction of Open Computing Language (OpenCL), a standard for cross-platform, parallel programming of modern processors, has made a step in the right direction. Code written with OpenCL can run on a wide variety of platforms, adapting to the underlying architecture. It is versatile yet easy to learn due to similarities with the C programming language. In this paper, we will review the current state of the art in the use of GPUs and OpenCL for parallel computations. We use an implementation of the n-body simulation to illustrate some important considerations in developing OpenCL programs.
Development of modern integrated circuit technologies makes it feasible to
develop cheaper, faster and smaller special purpose signal processing function
circuits. Digital Signal processing functions are generally implemented either
on ASICs with inflexibility, or on FPGAs with bottlenecks of relatively smaller
utilization factor or lower speed compared to ASIC. Field Programmable DSP
Array (FPDA) is the proposed DSP dedicated device, redolent to FPGA, but with
basic fixed common modules (CMs) (like adders, subtractors, multipliers,
scaling units, shifters) instead of CLBs. This paper introduces the development
of reconfigurable system architecture with a focus on FPDA that integrates
different DSP functions like DFT, FFT, DCT, FIR, IIR, and DWT etc. The
switching between DSP functions is occurred by reconfiguring the
interconnection between CMs. Validation of the proposed architecture has been
achieved on Virtex5 FPGA. The architecture provides sufficient amount of
flexibility, parallelism and scalability.
As the leading vendor of enterprise business standard software, SAP has recognized the need to adapt their R/3 system to current trends in software development and to meet market needs for speed of development, flexibility, openness, and interoperability. In this paper, we first present SAP's approach to object-oriented and component-based technology by describing the Business Framework, the concepts of Business Objects, BAPIs, and the Business Object Repository. On this basis, we then analyze current communication architectures and products enabling the interaction of external Java- based software applications with SAP R/3, point out the advantages and disadvantages of different solutions, and finally elaborate on potential strategies and steps for driving the evolution of SAP R/3 in order to further increase interoperability, openness, and flexibility. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Summary pointsDoctors use some two million pieces of information to manage patients, but little research has been done on the information needs that arise while treating patientsTextbooks, journals, and other existing information tools are not adequate for answering the questions that arise: textbooks are out of date, and “the signal to noise” ratio of journals is too low for them to be useful in daily practiceComputer systems that have been developed to help doctors are not widely used—perhaps because they have not been developed to meet doctors' information needsWhen doctors see patients they usually generate at least one question; more questions arise than the doctors seem to recogniseMost of the questions concern treatmentMany of the questions are highly complex, simultaneously asking about individual patients and particular areas of medical knowledgeOften doctors are asking not simply for information but for support, guidance, affirmation, and feedbackMany of the questions go unanswered, but most could be answered; it is, however, time consuming and expensive to answer themDoctors are most likely to seek answers to these questions from other doctorsThe best information sources provide relevant, valid material that can be accessed quickly and with minimal effortNew information tools are needed: they are likely to be electronic, portable, fast, easy to use, connected to both a large valid database of medical knowledge and the patient record, and a servant of patients as well as doctors
This study aimed to analyze affective and cognitive determinants of the professional work of individuals caring for patients with HIV/AIDS, in view of the risk and/or experience of accidental exposure to blood. We drew on the theoretical-methodological references of Fishbein & Ajzen and Maslow's theory. Fifty health care workers were evaluated using an attitudes questionnaire and a needs and motivations instrument. The research verified differences between answers by health care workers who had never suffered accidents and those who had already experienced accidental exposure to blood. Health care workers did their work activities motivated by the need for self-fulfillment and valued their own performance when they were able to meet the patients' emotional needs. Among health professionals who had never experienced accidental exposure to blood, the predominant beliefs was that patients feel remorse over having expose themselves to HIV. Accidental exposure to blood raises difficulties in personal life. Technical aspects are also associated with the possibility of accidental exposure to blood.
We analyze an automatic repeat-request (ARQ) scheme of the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems file-delivery protocol for the single-hop file-transfer operation. With regard to performance measures, this paper is mainly concerned with the time taken to transfer a file (file-delivery time) and throughput efficiency. We discuss the ARQ timer-setting rule that minimizes the expected file-delivery time under the constraint that the throughput efficiency is maximized. Then, for that timer-setting rule, we derive the expected file-delivery time.
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