Article

Regional Economic Impacts of the Shale Gas and Tight Oil Boom: A Synthetic Control Analysis

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Abstract

Regional economic impacts of shale oil and gas activities are estimated for shale plays in Arkansas, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.•The Synthetic Control Method is used to estimate the economic impacts in each state. The Synthetic Control Method has a number of advantages over other approaches in this setting.•The overall finding is that the estimated impacts are much smaller than those predicted by regional input-output models, where for some areas no significant impacts are detected.•State and local policy makers should consider both the potential positive and negative effects so as to maximize the social welfare of area residents.

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... The size of the near-term stimulus effect is not clear. Several studies found a negligible positive (0.46-0.48% of GDP) stimulus effect on the U.S. economy or a negligible to substantial positive effect on regional economies [36][37][38][39][40]. Most economic reports employ IMPLAN input-output models that do not account for the fact that a growth in shale gas may cause a reduction in the production of coal, nuclear, and renewables. ...
... Several reports estimated large positive employment effects of fracking in impacted states, as reviewed by Kinnaman [35]. Peer reviewed studies using statistical approaches generally find negligible to moderate effects in local economies [38,53]. Overall, the weight of the evidence supports this claimed advantage of fracking. ...
... Fracking may generate more income by a combination of greater demand for labor and an increase in the number of jobs or rent or royalty payments to private and public resource owners [55]. Although the long run effects of fracking on income and distribution of income are not clear [55,56], positive short-term effects on income levels have been reported in case studies [38,53,57]. ...
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This paper examines whether public perceptions of the claimed advantages and disadvantages of fracking are consistent with an evidence-based assessment of the claimed advantages and disadvantages. Public assessments are obtained from an internet-based opinion survey in 2014 in six states: California, Illinois, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The survey presented eleven advantages and eleven disadvantages of fracking derived from local media stories, from advocacy claims made by pro- or anti-fracking groups, and from think tank pieces. Then the respondents were asked to indicate their feelings about how important each claimed advantage and disadvantage was to their support of/opposition to fracking. Scientific assessments regarding the same claims are compiled from available peer-reviewed literature and evidence-based reviews. We classify each claim as either (a) supported by the weight of the available evidence, (b) not supported by the weight of the available evidence, or (c) there is inadequate evidence to assess it. We find less consistency with respect to the disadvantages than advantages. Respondents perceive four disadvantages out of eleven as extremely important while there is inadequate evidence to assess them or the available evidence does not support them. Our comparison has interesting implications for understanding the controversy about fracking.
... Despite their favorable region of location, counties classified as mining-dependent in the West as a whole lost population during the 1990s (McGranahan and Beale 2002). After bottoming out at the end of 2003, national employment in the oil and gas sector dramatically increased over the next decade with the advent of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (Munasib and Rickman 2015). California, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming comprised six of the top twelve oil producing states in the nation in 2014 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (Hackbarth 2015). ...
... Oil and gas extraction affects regional economies directly through the demand for labor, which can be reflected in changes in employment, earnings and population (Marchand and Weber 2018). Activity associated with oil and gas extraction can positively spill over to the rest of the economy through spending multiplier effects, or alternatively possibly crowd out other economic activity through higher input prices or harm to the natural environment (Munasib and Rickman 2015). The volatility of the mining sector has led many areas in the West to turn to outdoor recreation for economic growth (Traywick and Recht 2019). ...
... Therefore, we compare economic growth across recent periods for the nonmetropolitan counties of eleven states in the contiguous West. We focus solely on the West because of its general natural amenity attractiveness (McGranahan 1999), the presence of oil, gas and other mineral resources and the geographic heterogeneity of labor market effects from the presence of natural amenities (Partridge et al. 2008) and oil and gas resources (Munasib and Rickman 2015). We compare growth in the 1990s to that during 2000-2010and 2010. ...
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Although the American West has long experienced strong economic growth, variation in natural amenities and mineral resources across the West has produced a diversity of economic outcomes and trends. In this paper, we assess whether there have been recent significant shifts in economic growth across the nonmetropolitan counties of the region. We find significant relative downward growth shifts in areas most abundant in natural amenities. Further analysis suggests the downward growth shifts in high-amenity counties resulted from the capitalization of the amenities into housing costs, not from diminished quality of life in the counties from growth or climate change. Both the shocks and multipliers associated with mineral resource extraction shifted across the periods. The uncertainty surrounding future climate change adjustments and volatility of mineral resource extraction suggests the need for place-based policy to maintain economic vitality in the rural West.
... The first strand of literature argues that the resource boom increases wage and employment opportunities, which increases the opportunity cost of apprehension; thus, it should reduce criminal activities, (e.g., Allcott and Keniston, 2018;Gould et al., 2002;Grinols and Mustard, 2006;Grogger, 1998;Komarek, 2016;Solarin, 2020;Weinstein et al., 2018;Winters et al., 2020). In contrast, the second strand of literature focuses on the darker side of the shale boom like reductions in educational attainment (Rickman et al., 2017), adverse effects on the local area quality of life (Munasib and Rickman, 2015), public health (Sangaramoorthy, 2019), rising housing price (Chambers, 2020), sexually transmitted infections (Cunningham et al., 2020), excess alcohol consumption (Mayer and Olson Hazboun, 2019), and crime (James and Smith, 2017;Komarek, 2018). ...
... PDSL incorporates machine learning's innovation and strengths to properly select observable confounders to partially out the causal effect of treatment (fracking boom) on the outcome variable (crime). Rickman and Wang (2020), Munasib and Rickman (2015), Rickman et al. (2017) who implement synthetic control methods that allow one treatment unit (state) at a time, GSC also allows multiple treatment units with the occurrence of treatment in a different period. Hence, this method contributes to the application side of causal inference in the regional policy setting when treatment occurs in several states at different periods. ...
... In addition, Rickman et al. (2017) find reductions in educational attainment in Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, which experienced recent significant shale-energy booms. Munasib and Rickman (2015) find negative spillover through rising local factor and goods prices and adverse effects on the local area quality of life effect among Arkansas, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. A recent study by Cunningham et al. (2020) find a causal relation between Notes: In the regression, we do not include all of these variables. ...
Article
Based on seminal and anecdotal evidence, we postulate a proposition that shale oil and gas extraction induce crime through different channels. We scrutinize the causal linkage between the fracking boom and crime rates by applying the Generalized Synthetic Control (GSC) approach in the context of Arkansas, North Dakota, and West Virginia states while considering several other states as the comparison group. We observe the prevalence of the crime rates are somewhat homogeneous before the fracking boom among treatment and comparison states or the pre-fracking boom parallel trend. And our empirical findings confirm our proposition that states with the fracking boom encountered more crimes than comparison states with an estimated 15.68 million (2008 dollar) worth of the annual victimization cost.
... Munasib and Rickman [11] study the impacts of oil and gas production in the Bakken, Fayetteville, and Marcellus shales using a synthetic control group approach and find employment gains in state economies. Agerton et al. [12] confirm that increased drilling for oil and gas creates jobs. ...
... However, Paredes et al. [4] argue that the income spillover effects in the Marcellus region appear to be minimal, and like Paredes et al. [4], some studies suggest that the positive effects of a shale boom decrease over time [23,27], and even that resource boom-bust cycles can leave communities worse off in aggregate [28]. Other studies have provided evidence that the effects vary across regions [11]. ...
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This paper is designed to determine whether producing oil and gas via shale has an economically significant effect on population migration dynamics and on the labor market in terms of the number of employed individuals, the number of establishments, total wages, and average annual pay per person in twenty-six counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania, USA. The analysis incorporates migration inflow and outflow between producing and nonproducing counties. The results of the analysis show that the counties that engage in shale gas extraction saw a negative impact on net migration but a much larger positive impact on labor market outcomes. Specifically, the number of jobs is higher by 2.4%, the number of establishments is higher by 1.1%, total wages are 3% more and the average annual pay is 1.5% more in producing counties after shale. The analysis reveals a small but statistically significant negative impact on migration, as shale regions experienced some migration outflows.
... Technological advancements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing transformed the United States oil and gas industry beginning in the mid-2000s (Brown, 2014(Brown, , 2015Feyrer, Mansur, & Sacerdote, 2017;Munasib & Rickman, 2015;Upton & Yu, 2017). A rise in global oil prices during this period allowed for the use of higher cost fracking technology and caused U.S. oil and gas production to soar. ...
... The effects of oil and gas development on state and local economies is an important issue, but there is uncertainty in the net benefits and how they are distributed (Cai, Maguire, & Winters, 2019;Marchand & Weber, 2018;Munasib & Rickman, 2015;Paredes, Komarek, & Loveridge, 2015;Weber, 2012;Weinstein, 2014;White, 2012). On the one hand, increased oil and gas development in an area may create positive multiplier effects for other industries as oil and gas workers, firms, and royalty recipients spend money on locally produced goods and services (Brown, 2018;Feyrer et al., 2017;Marchand, 2012;Whitacre, Johnston, Shideler, & Lansford, 2020). ...
Article
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Horizontal drilling innovations revolutionized the United States oil and gas industry and facilitated a boom in production in the mid‐2000s in regions with shale and tight sands reservoirs. This paper examines the effects of the boom on individual employment and earnings within boom states. We account for endogenous migration decisions by using a novel instrument for oil and gas production in workers’ state of residence. We find statistically significant and economically meaningful positive effects of the oil and gas boom for long‐term resident workers, those who were born in and reside in their home state. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... In turn, Sarawak was ranked as the second highest in Malaysia to have poverty incidence rates of 0.6% in 2016 (see Economic Planning Unit, 2016). These observations are consistent with the literature that shows the natural resources industry does not contribute significantly to the socio-economic development in a region where the industry is located but rather widen up income inequality (see for example, Weber, 2012;Munasib and Rickman, 2015;Gerelmaa and Kotani, 2016). ...
... For other countries, empirical evidences for the impacts of petroleum industry on its own industry and other industries at the regional level is abundant. These include the works by Papyrakis and Gerlagh (2007), James and Aadland (2011), Weber (2012), Brasier et al. (2014, Haggerty et al. (2014), Maniloff and Mastromonaco (2014), Munasib and Rickman (2015) and Paredes et al. (2015). Among these studies, Papyrakis and Gerlagh (2007) and James and Aadland (2011) reveal a negative link between economic growth and natural resources across regions in the United States. ...
Article
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Extraction of natural resources has created significant contribution to the Malaysian economy as a whole. However, the growth and development of the industry do not necessarily bring considerable economic linkages to the local economy where the industry is located, thus fail to contribute to the welfare of local households. This paper validates this claim by examining the economic impacts of Crude Oil and Natural Gas; Petroleum Refinery; and Forestry and Logging industries on the state of Sarawak. For an empirical analysis, a regional input-output model that developed by using a so-called Simple Location Quotient technique, is used as the main methodology in this study. Results are consistent with our claim that the three industries show significant impacts on growth that measured by value added. However, socio-economic impacts that measured by employment are considerably low. The lower employment impacts can be supported by the two stylized facts. First, the extraction of natural resources is capital-intensive production. The activity requires skilled workers, which might be one of the factors contributing to lower income and job opportunities. Second, the industries are highly dependent on inputs from other states and from abroad, which eventually creates lower economic spill over effects within the state economy.
... In addition, there is extensive research examining the labour market effects of oil price on oil-producing regions (Hvinden & Nordbø, 2016;Munasib & Rickman, 2015;Paredes et al., 2015;Weinstein, 2014). Munasib and Rickman (2015) found that earnings and employment in North Dakota's oil and gas and non-oil and gas counties were higher than expected during the state's Bakken boom, a period of high oil extraction from the Bakken oil formation from approximately 2006 to 2014. ...
... In addition, there is extensive research examining the labour market effects of oil price on oil-producing regions (Hvinden & Nordbø, 2016;Munasib & Rickman, 2015;Paredes et al., 2015;Weinstein, 2014). Munasib and Rickman (2015) found that earnings and employment in North Dakota's oil and gas and non-oil and gas counties were higher than expected during the state's Bakken boom, a period of high oil extraction from the Bakken oil formation from approximately 2006 to 2014. Paredes et al. (2015) estimated small direct income impacts, but larger employment impacts from the development of the Marcellus Formation in Pennsylvania. ...
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Labour markets of oil-exporting regions will be impacted by a global transition to low-carbon energy as oil demand reduces to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement. Together with direct job losses in the oil and gas industry, indirect employment effects on other sectors should also be considered to ensure a just transition. We explore these direct and indirect employment impacts that could result from the low-carbon transition by analysing the effect of oil price fluctuations on the labour market of Alberta, a Canadian province economically reliant on oil sands extraction. We employ a mixed methods approach, contextualizing our quantitative analysis with first-hand experiences of career transitions using interviews with oil sands workers. We estimate a vector autoregression for province-wide insights and explore sector-specific dynamics using time series regressions. We find that the price discount on Canadian oil sands, which is determined by local factors like crude oil quality and pipeline capacity, does not significantly affect employment, while the global oil price does. This finding puts in doubt claims of long-term employment benefits from new pipelines. We find that at a provincial scale, oil price fluctuations lead to employment levels also fluctuating. Our analysis at the sectoral level shows that these job fluctuations extend beyond oil and gas to other sectors, such as construction and some service sectors. These findings suggest that the province’s current economic dependence on oil creates job precarity because employment in various sectors is sensitive to a volatile oil market. Furthermore, due to this sectoral sensitivity to oil price changes, workers in these sectors may be especially at risk in a low-carbon transition and warrant special attention in the development of provincial and national just transition policies. Transitional assistance can support workers directly, while economic diversification in Alberta can reduce reliance on international oil markets and thereby ensure stable opportunities in existing and new sectors. Key policy insights • Decreased global oil demand is likely to create employment risks for workers in Alberta and other fossil fuel producing regions of the world. • Current economic dependence on oil sands extraction in Alberta leads to job precarity across sectors, including in those seemingly unrelated to extraction. Proactive economic diversification in anticipation of the low-carbon transition could reduce precarity by mitigating the effects of oil price fluctuations on employment levels in the long term. • Workers in sectors with higher oil price sensitivity (i.e. oil and gas, construction, professional services, manufacturing, accommodations, and food services sectors) could be prioritized in coordinated just transition policies at the local, provincial, and national scales. • The details of career transitions gleaned from our interviews suggest that tripartite social dialogue would contribute meaningfully to just transition policy development.
... Diff-in-Diff after synthetic control To assess the treatment effect, Bohn et al. (2014) and Munasib and Rickman (2015) construct a difference-in-difference-type estimator after applying the synthetic control method. Let Δ TR represent the treatment effect as a difference between the treatment unit and the synthetic unit, also differenced over the pretreatment and post-treatment periods as expressed as follows: ...
... "DID-rank test" is a second test based on the difference-in-difference estimator after synthetic control (Abadie et al. 2010;Munasib and Rickman 2015). ...
Article
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We examine the export impact of the Indian government’s surprise move to invalidate 86% of existing currencies overnight. This ‘demonetization' was undertaken in an attempt to eliminate illegal and untaxed transactions, and to make the financial system more reliant on electronic transactions. This policy was implemented within a production structure that significantly depended on cash and informal credit sources, and a banking infrastructure that did not reach all corners of the economy. Due to the unexpectedness of this policy, the impact is predicted to have been stronger in the short run than the long run as the economy adjusted to the new system. The synthetic control method (SCM) achieves this, and with its ability to accommodate scenarios where the policy impact may vary across post-treatment periods, provides a suitable tool for our analysis. Additionally the unexpectedness of the policy circumvents anticipation issues making the scenario an ideal candidate for SCM analysis. No long-term improvements though significant short-term losses in exports values due to this policy are uncovered that are robust across alternate specifications and estimation methods.
... The discovery and exploration of unconventional hydrocarbon resources since the late 20th century is one of the greatest advances in the history of hydrocarbon exploration (Schmoker, 1999;Aguilera and Ripple, 2012;Tang et al., 2012;Schelly, 2016;Montgomery and Sullivan, 2017;Thomas et al., 2017;Zhong et al., 2017;Afşar and Luijendijk, 2019). It not only increases the global hydrocarbon resource potentials (Gautier et al., 2009;Littlefield, 2013;McCollum et al., 2016;Tan and Barton, 2017;Wang et al., 2019a), but also changes the world energy structure (Holditch, 2003;Munasib and Rickman, 2015;Ansari and Kaufmann, 2019) and gives hope to solving the energy shortage problem (Deffeyes, 2004;Sovacool, 2007). In 2016, unconventional oil production in the USA accounted for 41% of its total oil production. ...
Article
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The discovery of unconventional hydrocarbon resources since the late 20th century changed geologists’ understanding of hydrocarbon migration and accumulations and provides a solution to energy shortage. In 2016, unconventional oil production in the USA accounted for 41% of the total oil production; and unconventional natural gas production in China accounted for 35% of total gas production, showing strong growth momentum of unconventional hydrocarbons explorations. Unconventional hydrocarbons generally coexist with conventional petroleum resources; they sometimes distribute in a separate system, not coexisting with a conventional system. Identification and prediction of unconventional resources and their potentials are prominent challenges for geologists. This study analyzed the results of 12,237 drilling wells in six representative petroliferous basins in China and studied the correlations and differences between conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons by comparing their geological features. Migration and accumulation of conventional hydrocarbon are caused dominantly by buoyance. We propose a concept of buoyance-driven hydrocarbon accumulation depth to describe the deepest hydrocarbon accumulation depth driven dominantly by buoyance; beyond this depth the buoyance becomes unimportant for hydrocarbon accumulation. We found that the buoyance-driven hydrocarbon accumulation depth in petroliferous basins controls the different oil/gas reservoirs distribution and resource potentials. Hydrocarbon migration and accumulations above this depth is dominated by buoyancy, forming conventional reservoirs in traps with high porosity and permeability, while hydrocarbon migration and accumulation below this depth is dominated by non-buoyancy forces (mainly refers to capillary force, hydrocarbon volume expansion force, etc.), forming unconventional reservoirs in tight layers. The buoyance-driven hydrocarbon accumulation depths in six basins in China range from 1200 m to 4200 m, which become shallower with increasing geothermal gradient, decreasing particle size of sandstone reservoir layers, or an uplift in the whole petroliferous basin. The predicted unconventional resource potential below the buoyance-driven hydrocarbon accumulation depth in six basins in China is more than 15.71 × 10⁹ t oil equivalent, among them 4.71× 10⁹ t reserves have been proved. Worldwide, 94% of 52,926 oil and gas reservoirs in 1186 basins are conventional reservoirs and only 6% of them are unconventional reservoirs. These 94% conventional reservoirs show promising exploration prospects in the deep area below buoyance-driven hydrocarbon accumulation depth.
... The income impacts of UOGD initially focused on employment, wage, and salary income, given that job creation was promoted as an ancillary benefit of development by industry proponents (Matz & Renfrew 2015). Early work suggested positive, albeit modest, effects on employment, labor income (Weber 2012, Brown 2014, Munasib & Rickman 2015, Hastings et al. 2017, Maniloff & Mastromonaco 2017, and higher natural gas consumer welfare (Hausman & Kellogg 2015). More recent work finds potentially larger effects: Bartik et al. (2019) estimate that counties with the most substantial shale resources experience increases in labor income of 5-11%, similar to the estimate of 7-11% found by Komarek (2016) in Pennsylvania. ...
... The income impacts of UOGD initially focused on employment, wage, and salary income, given that job creation was promoted as an ancillary benefit of development by industry proponents (Matz & Renfrew 2015). Early work suggested positive, albeit modest, effects on employment, labor income (Weber 2012, Brown 2014, Munasib & Rickman 2015, Hastings et al. 2017, Maniloff & Mastromonaco 2017, and higher natural gas consumer welfare (Hausman & Kellogg 2015). More recent work finds potentially larger effects: Bartik et al. (2019) estimate that counties with the most substantial shale resources experience increases in labor income of 5-11%, similar to the estimate of 7-11% found by Komarek (2016) in Pennsylvania. ...
Article
The shale gas boom revolutionized the energy sector through hydraulic fracturing (fracking). High levels of energy production force communities, states, and nations to consider the externalities and potential risks associated with this unconventional oil and natural gas development (UOGD). In this review, we systematically outline the environmental, economic, and anthropogenic impacts of UOGD, while also considering the diverse methodological approaches to these topics. We summarize the current status and conclusions of the academic literature, in both economic and related fields, while also providing suggested avenues for future research. Causal inference will continue to be important for the evaluation of UOGD costs and benefits. We conclude that current economic, global, and health forces may require researchers to revisit outcomes in the face of a potential shale bust. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Resource Economics, Volume 13 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
... Similarly, Munasib & Rickman (2015) used a synthetic control method to assess the impact of oil revenues in US counties. They note that oil-rich counties tend to have higher education levels and lower birth rates compared to other counties in North Dakota. ...
Thesis
In recent years, the number of households relying on external assistance to meet their daily needs has steadily increasedin Sub-Saharan Africa. However, how this income is perceived and used by recipients in this region remains unknown.This thesis aims to fill this gap by examining how recipients in Sub-Saharan Africa use external income.The first two chapters of the thesis focus on migrant remittances, while the final chapter examines the impact of natural resource rents. Specifically, the first chapter explores the effect of international remittances on entrepreneurship and business activities in SSA countries. The second chapter analyzes the redistributive nature of international remittancesin Senegal. In particular, I examine whether recipients are more likely to share these remittances at the domestic level. Inthe final chapter, I assess how the oil boom favours schooling decisions in Chad.
... Therefore, the ridership of transit routes in the control group can be used to estimate the usage of transit in the treatment group if the Tugo system was not launched. Then, we follow Bohn et al. (2013) and Munasib and Rickman (2015) to calculate a DID change for the treatment group, as shown in Eq. (4). ...
Article
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The bike-sharing system (BSS) is an emerging travel mode that has attracted increased attention in recent years. One of the most critical reasons for this increased attention is that the BSS claims to solve the first-mile and last-mile problems, and can be used to connect with existing transit. However, some studies suggest that BSSs could compete with transit rather than collaborating. Previous studies only focused on large-sized BSSs, ignoring an analysis of the impact of small-sized BSSs. To fill this gap, this paper conducted a case study to investigate the impacts of introducing a small-sized BSS on transit (including regular bus, express, and streetcar) usage in Tucson, Arizona. All transit routes are categorized into two groups: treated routes with the defined buffer of BSS and control routes without BSS. Then, the synthetic control method (SCM) is employed to provide an unbiased comparison on the average ridership per stop of the treated transit routes. The ridership data and point-of-interest data are collected and used to synthesize virtual treatment transit routes. The results show that a small-sized BSS generally has a slight impact on the ridership of most transit routes because of the limited coverage. However, the streetcar experiences an increase in ridership and increases by 0.55 passengers as a result of 1 BSS trip. Furthermore, the relationship between a small-sized BSS and transit may be also dependent on whether a transit route can access areas having the densest BSS network. These findings suggest that the role of BSSs in an urban transportation system can be controlled by relocating the locations of BSS stations considering the characteristics of transit routes.
... At the same time, a rising share in the economy of less-unionized services sector would also reflect in the declining union density (Jaumotte and Buitron 2015). 15 Munasib and Rickman (2015) use a similar treatment. ...
Article
In this paper, we use the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to examine the impact of a state’s adoption of a Right-To-Work (RTW) law on income inequality. We explore possible pathways through which RTW laws may impact inequality, namely, unionization, investment, and wages. Our finding of a lack of impact of RTW laws on inequality is further supported by findings of a lack of impact of the law on these variables. Our results follow Farber (1984), who suggests that RTW laws may simply mirror pre-existing preferences against union representation. Hence RTW laws are not the primary driver of changes in inequality.
... By 2018, their production increased to about 70% and 60%, respectively [3]. These huge reserves of economically producible fossil fuel resources received attention as new drivers of economic development [4,5]. ...
Article
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This study analyzed the technological progress of the United States’ shale and tight petroleum (natural gas and crude oil) industry based on the association rules of its patents. According to the findings, although the production of shale oil and gas began in 2007, evidence of increasing technological developments in this industry assessed by patent applications began to appear only in 2010. In addition, the results showed that two distinct technological domains developed in 2010. Moreover, frequently developed technology classification networks are likely to contribute to the growth of this industry.
... Previous empirical literature has examined the effects of the state's political environment on oil and gas development and found that price rather than politics determined oil and gas development (Maguire 2012). Although, on federal lands, the regulatory environment was a key factor in the amount of oil and gas leasing (Maguire 2016). 2 Other work has examined the effects of oil and gas development on regional economic outcomes such as unemployment with mixed results (Lee 2015;Munasib & Rickman 2015;Weinstein 2014;Weber, 2014;Weber 2012;Michaels, 2010). ...
Article
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Oklahoma assesses a production tax of seven percent on the extraction of oil,natural gas, and other minerals. However, since July 2002, it has taxed productionfrom horizontal wells at one percent for the first 48 months of production. This isa significant tax incentive relative to the neighboring state of Texas, particularlyconsidering the limited evidence of the effectiveness of severance tax incentivesfor increasing in-state development of immobile resources. This paper examineswhether the tax incentive encouraged horizontal development in Oklahoma relativeto Texas. Our findings indicate that the incentive is not associated with an increasein development.
... The works of Munasib and Rickman (2015) and Rickman and Wang (2020) studies the territorial economic impacts of development of oil and gas production with this methodology. Recently, the methodology has been used to assess the effect of infrastructure on local development, as in the case of the effect on tourism of a new airport in a region of Germany in Doerr et al. (2020), and the effect of price fixing on fuel prices (Becker et al., 2021). ...
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The current awareness of climate change and its consequences has motivated international institutions and states to make sustainable development a central goal, promoting a process of energy transition towards low-carbon economies. This process entails an increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix, with wind power currently being the renewable source that produces the most energy, and whose growth is accelerating, both nationally and globally. The development of the associated infrastructures, many often in rural areas, has been seen either as a blessing or a curse, sometimes conceived as a historic opportunity to boost economic growth and employment, and sometimes as a threat that prevents future alternative developments. In this context, this work evaluates the socio-economic and demographic effects of wind power installations, in the short and long term, on the rural territory of the Campo de Belchite county (Aragon, Spain). We analyze the compatibility of rural development and environmental goals retrospectively, using a novel approach in this field, the Synthetic Control Method. Our results highlight that the compatibility of socio-economic, demographic, and environmental objectives can be difficult to achieve in rural territories, with negative effects in terms of rural population and only temporary job creation. Positive economic outcomes are found but they are not immediate. Our work brings insights and guidelines for the management of wind farms that must be linked to the territory and to its population to reach a just energy transition.
... Brown y Krupnick (2010) y Burtraw et al. (2012) coinciden en estimar menores precios de electricidad derivados de la abundancia de gas natural. 23 Desde una perspectiva regional varios estudios estiman efectos derrame positivos sobre localidades cercanas a los reservorios de hidrocarburos no convencionales (Weber, 2012;Tunstall et al., 2013;Munasib y Rickman, 2015;Tunstall, 2015;Feyrer et al., 2017). ...
Chapter
La oferta y la demanda mundial de energía están enfrentando profundos cambios. Mientras que las fuentes tradicionales, principalmente fósiles, observan una caída relativa en el balance energético, se desarrolla el uso de fuentes alternativas, al mismo tiempo que crece la inversión en tecnologías para mejorar la eficiencia energética en general. En este contexto, la apa-rición de reservas de gas no convencional y de tecnologías que permiten su recuperación ha dado lugar a la denominada revolución (o boom) del gas (Wang y Krupnick, 2013). Según la Energy International Agency, 2 las reservas probadas de gas en el mundo han crecido 40% entre 1998 y 2018.
... Oil and gas companies have argued that the expansion of oil and gas development during the boom period had a significant positive impact on local economies, including increased income and job growth (API 2017). The academic literature, however, has found mixed results in terms of the local economic benefits of the post-2000 oil and gas boom (Weinstein, Partridge, and Tsvetkova 2018;Agerton et al. 2017;Feyrer, Mansur, Sacerdot 2017;Maniloff and Mastromonaco 2017;Tsvetkova and Partridge 2016;Lee 2015;Michieka and Richard 2015;Munasib and Rickman 2015;Paredes et al. 2015;Weinstein 2014;Weber 2012). Overall, the research points to local economic benefits from oil and gas development, but there is some variation by region and in terms of the magnitude of the effects. ...
... From a regional economics perspective, this creates additional employment opportunities and likely generates positive externalities across specific industries (for example, retail and construction). A significant amount of research has documented the regional economic impacts associated with the rise in drilling, including those for employment and income [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Alternatively, several studies have examined negative externalities associated with the drilling increase, such as exacerbated educational attainment or declines in well-being in regions with high levels of drilling activity [8,9]. ...
Article
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Shale energy development activity may benefit some aspects of a regional economy (such as increased jobs or tax revenue); however, there may also be negative impacts to the local environment , such as noise and underground water contamination. We study the impact of unconventional drilling activity on housing price in an area of the country with a long history of crude oil production. A prospective home buyer may want to avoid a place near sites that have been drilled using unconventional drill technologies such as horizontal fracturing. Adopting a hedonic price model, we estimate the impact of distance to and density of unconventional drilling on housing prices in two central counties in Oklahoma during the period 2001-2016. We also apply a semiparametric approach to deal with the possibility that the relationship between an environmental pollutant source and housing price is nonlinear. The empirical results are consistent in terms of physical housing characteristics and locational aspects in all cases, with drilling activity having only a minimal effect in benchmark models. Further, the semiparametric estimation results support the findings that drilling activity has only limited impacts on local housing prices.
... These weighted averages, named synthetic controls, are constructed minimizing some distance between pre-treatment outcomes and covariates for the treated units. In the last two decades, SCG methods have gained widespread popularity, and there has been a growing number of studies applying them -under SUTVA -to the investigation of the economic effects on particular locations of a wide range of events or interventions including natural disasters (e.g., Coffman andNoy 2012, Cavallo et al. 2013, Barone and Mocetti 2014); terrorism or organized crime (Abadie and Gardeazabal 2003, Montalvo 2011, Pinotti 2015, Becker and Klößner 2017; major political events (Sanso-Navarro 2011, Abadie et al. 2015, Grier and Maynard 2016, Campos et al. 2018); economic, fiscal or labor-regulation reforms (Billmeier and Nannicini 2013, Kleven et al. 2013, Bohn et al. 2014, Eren and Ozbeklik 2016; health or social policies (Abadie et al. 2010, Hinrichs 2012, Bassok et al. 2014, Bauhoff 2014, Kreif et al. 2016; hydrocarbon extraction (Mideksa 2013, Munasib andRickman 2015); local and regional development policies (Ando 2015, Liu 2015, Barone et al. 2016, Gobillon and Magnac 2016, Di Cataldo 2017. ...
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In recent years, Synthetic Control Group (SCG) methods have received great attention from scholars and have been subject to extensions and comparisons with alternative approaches for program evaluation. However, the existing methodological literature mainly relies on the assumption of non-interference. We propose to generalize the SCG method to studies where interference between the treated and the untreated units is plausible. We frame our discussion in the potential outcomes approach. Under a partial interference assumption, we formally define relevant direct and spillover effects. We also consider the "unrealized" spillover effect on the treated unit in the hypothetical scenario that another unit in the treated unit's neighborhood had been assigned to the intervention. Then we investigate the assumptions under which we can identify and estimate the causal effects of interest, and show how they can be estimated using the SCG method. We apply our approach to the analysis of an observational study, where the focus is on assessing direct and spillover causal effects of a new light rail line recently built in Florence (Italy) on the commercial vitality of the street where it was built and of the streets in the treated street's neighborhood.
... First, Swedish municipalities are quite heterogeneous with respect to the economic, geographic and demographic variables (e.g., retail sales and employment, transportation costs, education level of the population, logistics organization of retail firms in the region and management competence in local retail firms), variables that could affect productivity but are not always readily available for researchers. In such a setting, neither a set of non-treated regions nor a single non-treated region will likely provide valid counterfactuals to the treated regions under study (Munasib and Rickman 2015). Second, differencein-difference models are based on the rather strong assumption that the intervention and control units would have displayed parallel trends in the outcome variables if the intervention had never occurred, meaning that potential confounding factors must be constant over time and possible to control for by taking account of time differences (Abadie et al. 2010). ...
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Using data from 2001–2012, the effects of IKEA entry in four Swedish municipalities, 2004–2007, on labor productivity in durable goods retailing is investigated using synthetic control methods. We contribute to the literature on synthetic control methods by considering parametric specifications of the intervention effect, which improves the likelihood of identifying the effect of IKEA entry on labor productivity. Our results indicate that in three out of four entry municipalities, labor productivity increased more than in their synthetic counterparts after IKEA entry, and that larger positive effects are found in rural municipalities where the new IKEA was large relative to the existing durable goods retail market.
... Tight oil refers to the oil retained in the in situ source rocks or in the reservoir rocks with air permeability less than 1mD, which are interbedded with source rocks such as tight sandstone or tight carbonate rock, including tight oil (other tight rock oil except shale oil) in a narrow sense and shale oil [1][2][3]. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the production of tight oil in the United States has soared and become a hot spot for the exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources in the world [4][5][6]. Tight oil is the main driving force for the continuous growth of crude oil production in the United States, with production expected to reach 70% of total crude oil production by 2050 [7]. Tight oil is also widely distributed in major petroliferous basins in China, with resources of 308.47 × 10 8 t, and accounts for 28% of total oil resources, a key field in China's current and future oil and gas exploration and development [8,9]. ...
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Through optical microscopic examination, scanning electron microscope analysis, whole rock X-ray diffraction analysis, X-ray fluorescence spectrum analysis, carbon and oxygen isotope analysis, and temperature measurement of fluid inclusions, the characteristics and formation mechanism of the alkaline lacustrine tight oil reservoirs of the Permian Fengcheng Formation in the Mahu Sag of the Junggar Basin have been systematically studied, and a genetic model has been proposed. Porosity of tight oil reservoirs of the Fengcheng Formation in the Mahu Sag is mostly less than 4%, with permeability mostly less than 0.1 mD. The lithology of the Fengcheng Formation in the Mahu Sag is mainly tuff, and the authigenic minerals mainly consist of feldspar, quartz, dolomite, and salt minerals (e.g., shortite, trona). The authigenic feldspar and quartz of the Fengcheng Formation in the Mahu Sag mainly originate from devitrification of volcanic glass in pyroclastic rocks. Reservoir space is dominated by dissolution pores of feldspar and salt minerals, followed by intercrystalline pores among feldspar, quartz, and other minerals formed by devitrification. Fractures are mainly comprised of shrinkage fractures, structural fractures, and bedding seans. The Permian Fengcheng Formation was mainly formed in an alkaline lake in the Mahu Sag, and the alkaline lacustrine sedimentary setting plays a decisive role in the formation of the tight oil reservoirs of the Fengcheng Formation. Volcanic glass in the tight oil reservoirs was generally devitrified within the alkaline lacustrine diagenetic fluid in the early diagenetic stage, and the devitrified micropores become an important reservoir space. Feldspars and salt minerals were mainly dissolved by acidic fluids generated by burial thermal evolution of the alkaline lacustrine source rocks of the Fengcheng Formation in the Mahu Sag, which produces the most developed dissolution pores in the tight oil reservoir. The abnormal high pressure formed by the early hydrocarbon generation and expulsion of the alkaline lacustrine source rocks in the Fengcheng Formation is one of the main reasons for porosity preservation. In the alkaline lake sedimentary environment of the Fengcheng Formation, widespread dolomitization and precipitation of a large number of salt minerals in the early diagenetic stage resisted partial compaction, which not only effectively protected early porosity, but also provided material conditions for dissolution porosity enhancement.
... Emsi® provides estimates for economic variables of interest (other than the business listings) from 2001 to present and projects an additional ten years. While historical estimates do not replicate federal data, this data source has been validated by several studies (Munasib and Rickman 2015;Kumar et al. 2017;Pede 2013). While the Emsi® data does provide current year industry jobs estimates, the data only provide industry job estimates at the 6-digit NAICS code level and thus cannot provide information on the individual components of a grouped 6-digit NAICS code such as 115310, "Support Activities for Forestry" sector. ...
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We used three comprehensive datasets to assess economic activities at as granular a level as possible for Support Activities for Forestry industry in Mississippi in 2019. The labor market company Emsi® provided the most current employment estimates by 6-digit North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes along with a geographic listing of businesses by NAICS codes that contained employment, earnings, and sales data. Esri® further categorized the 6-digit codes into 8-digits, thus providing a more detailed view of this sub-sector’s businesses. However, since business listings do not comprehensively tabulate all businesses of each classification within a region, we developed a weighting method to estimate output, jobs, and earnings for the following industries using Emsi® data- Foresters Consulting, Government – Forestry Services, and Forest Restoration. A statewide input–output model, along with sub-regional models, were estimated using the IMPLAN® software to identify economic contributions to the state and regional economies. Total annual sales across Mississippi were $84.5 million; sales were greatest in the Central subregion, with the South, North close behind. Consulting Foresters was the largest industry by sales, jobs, and earnings. Total economic contributions were 1,140 jobs and $59.79 million in value added on total sales of $121.99 million. South Mississippi received the greatest regional contributions from Foresters Consulting, while Central Mississippi received the greatest benefits from Government – Forestry Services and Forest Restoration.
... To the best of our knowledge, our work adds to this literature by being the first to study differential labor market impacts by race. Munasib and Rickman (2015) study the economic impacts of fracking in Arkansas, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. They find that North Dakota witnessed an increase in employment for nearly all sectors following the boom, but that was not the case in Arkansas or Pennsylvania. ...
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The Indian Removal Act forced many native groups in the USA into what is now the state of Oklahoma. This new land was soon contested, in part, for the mineral wealth that lay beneath. In this research, we document how the recent surge in oil and gas production brought on by hydraulic fracturing has differentially affected native and non-native communities in this region and surrounding states. We make use of the sudden and unexpected increase in oil production to determine how “fracking” has changed labor market outcomes for native and non-native groups in the resource extracting sector as well as other spillover sectors. To study this, we make use of data from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) and exploit the natural experiment setting that the advent of hydraulic fracturing provides. We find that earnings in the oil and gas extraction sector have increased for white workers by about 10%, but that earnings for Native workers are un-changed. Regarding spillovers into other sectors, we do find evidence that fracking increased employment and earnings for Native workers, but that these gains are not at the same scale as white workers.
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We examine the role of shale oil production in national economic growth in the United States for the period 2002Q1 to 2019Q4. Within a Cobb-Douglas production framework, we estimate the impact of increasing shale oil production on GDP and total employment. Adopting a maximum likelihood approach with a breakpoint, we observe the positive impact of shale oil production on economic growth is bigger in the post-recession period than in the pre-recession and during recession period. The results further show that shale oil production has a positive impact on the employment level but the impact of shale oil production on gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the impact of shale oil production on employment level. The implication of the results is that shale oil development is yet to indicate tendency of resource curse in the United States.
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For decades, the governance regimes of the United States and many other nations have increasingly devolved authority from central federal governments to substantially weaker state and local governments and even private industry. This trend produces uneven results for affected spaces and modes of governance. At the same time, industries have been re‐regulated under neoliberalization to maximize corporate profitability. Conterminous to the trend of neoliberal deregulation is the global energy transition. The U.S. energy system has shifted away from coal toward natural gas and has become the world’s top producer of hydrocarbons due to the widespread deployment of drilling techniques that allow access to unconventional resources. We evaluate the ways that neoliberal governance structures can create uneven socio‐economic impacts from oil and gas development across U.S. states using a multi‐level modeling framework with random slopes and cross‐level interactions. We utilize a multi‐level state and county data set that covers 2000–2016 to examine different outcomes across scales and places. We find evidence that state political economies—reflected in the ideological composition of state legislatures as well as the political spending of the energy sector—condition the effects of oil and gas development on well‐being. These findings are discussed in reference to theories of neoliberalism, growth machine politics, energy boomtowns, and natural resource‐dependent communities.
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Domestic, onshore oil and gas production has increased substantially in the United States in the last ∼20 years, creating a range of positive and negative impacts on communities. In this paper, we add to the growing literature on unconventional oil and gas production (a.k.a., “fracking”) and well-being by evaluating the association between self-reported stress induced by local oil and gas development and subjective well-being in the form of self-rated health. We also ask how the intensity of local drilling and trust in regulators influences self-rated health. Using novel survey data, we compare three Colorado communities with differential amounts of oil and gas development. Results from ordinal logistic regression models suggest that living in a community that hosts extraction is associated with lower self-rated health and that stress from local oil and gas operations is associated with lower self-rated health. To some degree, trust in regulators seems to improve self-rated health. We discuss implications for research and policy.
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The paper investigates the existence of a natural resource curse, from a within-country perspective. This perspective tends to be overlooked in the existing literature, which provides extensive country-level analyses of the issue. In particular, the paper examines the relationship between agriculture and mining and quarrying resources endowments and regional economic growth, over the period 2007–16, for 260 European Union regions. The results, which are robust to controlling for spatial dependence, show there is what can be called a natural resources curse, particularly related to agriculture. Importantly, they show that this curse is not related to the economic crisis and, in fact, has held back regional economic recovery.
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Feyrer, Mansur, and Sacerdote (2017) estimates the spatial dispersion of the effects of the recent shale-energy boom by unconditionally regressing income and employment on energy production at various levels of geographic aggregation. However, producing counties tend to be located near each other and receive inward spillovers from neighboring production. This inflates the estimated effect of own-county production and spatial aggregation does not address this. We propose an alternative estimation strategy that accounts for these spillovers and identify reduced propagation effects. The proposed estimation strategy can be applied more generally to estimate the dispersion of multiple, simultaneously occurring economic shocks. (JEL E24, E32, J31, Q35, Q43, R11, R23)
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Technological advances in oil and gas drilling have enabled the productive extraction of natural gas in new regions. The benefits from employment and income opportunities can help stimulate economies and may be valued by local residents. At the same time, however, shale gas activity can alter natural landscapes and is associated with negative externalities, including potential groundwater contamination. While some previous research has examined the impact of shale development, our paper focuses on the local impacts in West Virginia, a state with a long history of resource-extraction and one whose economy has lagged the nation. Because of its history of resource extraction, communities in West Virginia who may have limited other economic prospects may value the activity differently. Additionally, most of the previous research used data during the initial boom, ignoring the slowdown that followed. Using the coarsened exact matching (CEM) technique, we match houses near producing wells with other similar houses, in order to examine how property values in West Virginia are affected by proximity to horizontal producing wells. This technique helps compensate for the relatively small number of housing transactions in West Virginia, ensuring we have a good counterfactual. After matching, we estimate the average capitalization effect of houses near producing shale wells. We find that the price of all houses (regardless of water source) decreases as the number of surrounding wells increases. However, we also find some evidence that this effect varies over time and that the negative capitalization effect attenuates over space.
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Oil booms have been shown to increase local employment and wages. But these effects reflect the aggregated experience of residents, commuters, and recent migrants alike. This paper takes advantage of a unique data set that identifies a rich set of labor market outcomes by place of residence, rather than by place of work. Exploiting this feature of the data, we examine the effect of a major oil boom on employment and wage outcomes in the North Slope Borough of Alaska. This analysis is juxtaposed with a more conventional one that uses place-of-work data collected from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we find that the oil boom of the late 2000s significantly increased non-residential employment. While the boom caused residential employment to shift from the public to the private sector, total residential employment was unaffected. There is weak evidence that residential wages increased in response to the boom. These results are important as drilling decisions are often negotiated locally by interest groups that might be less concerned with general equilibrium effects.
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This article first reviews key developments in the Quebec natural gas fracking timeline from initial exploratory well fracking in 2007 to the 2011 moratorium and the 2018 fracking prohibition. Next, the article estimates potential jobs and wealth losses from the prohibition in Quebec via a comparison between intensive fracking in northeastern Pennsylvania (which is similar in size to Quebec’s core potential fracking region) and adjacent counties in New York state where fracking is prohibited. Quebec’s job loss from fracking prohibition is estimated to be quite modest. Moreover, the estimated wealth effect range shows that allowing development of Quebec’s shale gas reserves may well have led to net wealth losses rather than gains for its citizens because of large declines in natural gas prices. While future shale gas development in Quebec is a possibility, given the preferences of Quebec’s citizens, the weak profitability prospects of the shale gas sector, and the ongoing cost reductions for solar and wind power, it seems most likely that Quebec’s Utica Shale gas reserves will remain undeveloped and that this will be a sound policy decision.
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Consumer debt is an important vehicle for smoothing through income shocks. I study localized income shocks from oil and gas development to investigate consumer response. Using quarterly information on consumer debt and oil and gas activity between 2000 and 2016, I find that consumer debt increased at a peak of $660 per capita, equivalent to 1.3% of median household income in counties with shale endowment and increased drilling. Shocks to local wages via drilling revealed a marginal propensity to borrow of 0.45. Relative to areas with oil and gas development experience, the marginal propensity to borrow was two times larger in previously undeveloped areas.
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Commercial fisheries are often presumed to contribute meaningfully to local economies, despite a lack of supporting empirical evidence. We address this gap by estimating local economic effects from commercial fishing activity in Alaska. Using exogenous variation in fish stocks and prices, we find that a 10% increase in a community's annual resident fishery earnings leads to a corresponding 0.7% increase in resident income. This translates to an increase of 1.54 dollars in total income for each dollar increase in fisheries earnings. Our results demonstrate the potential for local benefits from commercial fishing through direct, indirect, and induced effects into other sectors. Moreover, our findings demonstrate the importance of local resource ownership for generating benefits for local economies.
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In this paper, we study the impact of the oil and gas industry on county-level employment and wage earnings across not only the boom, but also the bust cycle. Our paper is among the first to estimate wage and employment impacts of the bust cycle for the U.S. oil and gas industry and directly compare these employment and wage impacts for the boom. We then evaluate spillovers into other sectors in the economy, comparing impacts on tradable and non-tradable industries for three distinct geographic regions and estimate separate models for rural and urban areas. We find variation across geographic context, but in general the oil and gas bust was associated with a significant decrease in overall employment, with the effect most notable in non-tradable industries in rural counties. Finally, we investigate the differential impact of the 2008 financial crisis on labor in producing and non-producing counties. We find that, employment and wages in oil and gas producing counties were impacted by the financial crisis less than non-oil and gas counties and recovery in oil and gas counties started earlier.
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We use the synthetic control method to determine the economic impact of the shale boom to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Estimation results are mixed. The shale development decreased the poverty rate and increased the employment growth rate in Pennsylvania and West Virginia in the short run. Top oil and gas producing counties in West Virginia also experienced short‐term personal income growth due to fracking. However, most of the positive impacts disappeared a few years after the initial boom periods. The shale development did not bring significant economic benefits to Ohio. Further, shale drilling activities exert a potential long‐term negative effect on population growth in all three states.
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With the maturity of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies, countries rich in shale gas have begun to promote the development of the shale gas industry. The impact of the booming shale gas industry on the regional economy has also become a main focus. Shale gas’ exploration and extraction may have positive spillover effects on other sectors, resulting in population growth and job creation. However, negative spillover effects can occur through rising local goods prices and its adverse effects on the local quality of life, which in turn could harm population growth and employment. By using the synthetic control method, we investigates the shale gas fields in Chongqing to reveal the relationship between population growth, employment and shale gas development in Fuling, Nanchuan and Wulong districts. Our results indicate that due to the development of the shale gas industry, the number of urban non-private sector employees in three districts and counties has decreased. From 2017 to 2018, this decline had gradually weakened and the population growth had been negatively affected.
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Carbon trading scheme is an instrument adopted in many countries of the world to reduce CO2 emissions. As an important way of environmental regulation, whether it can reduce the emissions and promote the economic development at the same time needs further investigation. This paper tests whether the Porter Hypothesis is true in China's carbon emissions trading scheme for energy intensive industries. Using provincial-level, industrial-level and firm-level data, we construct a DEA model that can incorporate the emissions trading behavior among different decision making units to show that the carbon emissions trading scheme can only reduce the CO2 emissions but cannot increase the output significantly. That is, the carbon intensity is decreased. The reason is that the carbon trading scheme is conducive to the improvement of the production efficiency, and firm-level research and development input increases after carbon trading scheme. These findings are robust to several robustness checks. Our paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the carbon emissions trading scheme in reducing emissions. An external technological breakthrough is needed if the win-win situation of reducing CO2 emissions and promoting economic development simultaneously is wanted to be achieved.
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Substantial endowments of extractive resources often pave the way to resource dependence for countries, making them vulnerable to price shocks and stymying economic growth. However, resource-endowed regions within countries may be immune to the adverse effects of resource booms. In fact, resource endowments may even prove to be blessings for such regions. Using Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression, we examine these possibilities by studying the intra-federal effects of oil price shocks on ten Canadian provinces' outputs and labour markets. We show that the manufacturing sectors of Alberta and Saskatchewan, two resource-rich provinces, expand (contract) during oil booms (busts); also, their responses are persistent. The services sectors of these provinces also expand, albeit to a lesser extent. Contrastingly, in Newfoundland and Labrador, another resource-rich province, resource booms do not affect the manufacturing sector. In general, the provincial services sectors are insensitive to oil price shocks. Considering the characteristic volatility of oil markets and the services sectors' insensitivity to oil price shocks, curating a diversified services-centric economy that is not tethered to the oil and gas industry would serve these provinces well.
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Climate change, the imbalance between China’s domestic energy supply and demand, and the success of the shale gas revolution in the United States have been the main motivators for China to actively issue shale gas development policies and explore its own path on this industry. This paper estimates three indicators of economic development: regional GDP, employment level, and the housing price index by using data from China’s largest shale gas region, the Fuling District in Chongqing (a municipality in China). The analysis uses a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) model based on data from Fuling itself and other 34 counties of the Chongqing municipality over the period from 2005 to 2018. The results demonstrate that shale gas development has a significant positive effect on both regional GDP and employment level, with average impact growth rates respectively of 9.8% and 12.0%. By contrast, we find an insignificant effect of shale gas development on housing prices. These results support the case for further development of shale gas in China. Note that in some areas our results differ from existing literature, providing a reference for further research in this area.
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This article examines the impact of the 2008 Legal Arizona Workers Act on farm wage, production mix, farm capital use, and agricultural innovation using the synthetic control method. The findings indicate that the law significantly reduced farm worker population in Arizona. Farm wage is not affected by the decreased supply of farm labor because farms in Arizona reduced labor‐intensive crop production. The agricultural sector does not increase the use of farm capital and experiences a decrease in profits. Moreover, this study finds no impact on agricultural patents and research funding in Arizona.
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Community currencies are a popular way localities around the world pursue a sustainable economy. However, no studies look at the economic impact of community currencies using modern causal inference methods. We use the synthetic control method to examine the short and long-term effects of the popular community currency BerkShares on the number of businesses, unemployment rate, and per capita income in the county in which it circulates. The results suggest that BerkShares has not had a discernible impact either directly on businesses or indirectly on local economic conditions. Additionally, BerkShares has not impacted business dynamics in a measurable way. Results from the synthetic control method suggest that establishment births, deaths, expansions, and contractions figures following BerkShares are no different than what they would have been without the currency. Given its lack of discernible impact, the results serve as a caution for localities considering community currencies as an economic development strategy.
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This paper examines the effects of electricity generation from both types of energy sources on sustainable state economic growth. For the analysis, this paper uses the panel data set for 47 U.S. states from 1999 to 2017 by employing the two-step Generalized Methods of Moments model. The results show that renewable energy generation has a positive impact on state economic growth whereas non-renewable energy generation may hampers economic growth. This supports that development of renewable energy resources helps not only reducing average costs to generate electricity but improving environmental quality as zero emission resources, which enhances productivity. Even though non-renewable energy can create economic benefits as a main factor of production, burning fossil fuels generates air pollution, which directly threatened labor and capital productivities. In other words, non-renewable energy generation does not help sustainable economic development, unless the economic gains exceed the productivity losses arose from the negative environmental externalities. Furthermore, this paper finds that the effects of renewable energy generation on economic growth are different at a level of development stage: at an early stage, electricity generation from renewable energy resources hurts economic growth while at an advanced-stage, renewable energy helps to grow the economy. The results imply that the very low operating costs for renewable energy could offset the huge financial burden of high initial investment costs in the long run.
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Child food security is a longstanding concern to policymakers, exacerbated by economic slack and instability. We use the fracking era oil and gas boom of the early 2000s as a natural experiment to examine the importance of state economic conditions for child food security. The fracking boom was a large and unexpected economic shock that substantially improved labor market conditions in states with oil and gas resources but not elsewhere. We find that increases in oil and gas labor income improve child food security, especially for children with less educated parents and those residing in single‐mother households.
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Unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) has become the most widespread form of energy production in the United States. The booms and busts associated with UOGD are not unique to the industry, but the impacts to local communities are. As the industry continues to dominate the nation's energy landscape, and marginalized communities are disproportionately exposed to the extraction processes, it is important to understand the full scope of the environmental and social impacts experienced by communities during booms and busts. We review the literature on both the ecological and social boom-bust impacts of UOGD, noting the dearth of research on bust-time impacts. We conclude by calling for greater research on the long-term impacts of busts, in particular, and on understudied aspects of social impacts like those to public services, infrastructure, and social capital.
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In recent decades, labor force participation across the United States has declined but the reasons remain unclear. While some point to structural changes in the labor market composition as the driving factor, others argue that increases in the take-up of welfare and disability payments are to blame. Most existing studies document trends driven by labor market performance in major metropolitan areas. In this chapter, we analyze recent trends in the employment-to-population ratio and real wages, focusing instead on nonmetropolitan areas—the places left behind. Nonmetro areas have not recovered as quickly as metro areas have from the Great Recession. Less-educated workers in nonmetro areas employed in the manufacturing sector have fared the worst in terms of real wages. Overall, our results suggest that the decline in labor force participation rates in rural areas can be explained by a relative reduction in productivity rather than changes in welfare take-up.
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This paper offers insights into the role for regional science and regional scientists in analyzing shaleenergy development. The stories described are drawn from popular press accounts of the Bakken Basin in North Dakota and the dry-gas-producing counties of the Marcellus Shale in Northern and Central Pennsylvania. The comparison of the two shale plays highlights housing, labor market, and fiscal issues for these two locations.
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We investigate the popular theory that high-technology workers are drawn to high amenity locations and then the jobs follow the workers. Using a novel data set that tracks high-technology job growth by US county, we estimate spatial parameters of the response of high-tech job growth to the level of local natural amenities. For estimation we utilize a reasonably new class of models, smooth coefficient models, taking advantage of their flexibility to allow the response of high-tech job growth to be nonlinear with respect to the level of natural amenities. Our results show that amenities are not an important driver for high-technology employment growth. Natural amenities matter most within the subset of US counties that are micropolitan, where they can influence location decisions.
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This article provides an overview of the real estate valuation issues related to unconventional shale gas activities, particularly those related to hydraulic fracturing or “fracking.” With the research on this topic in its infancy, we focus more on the valuation issues that can arise as opposed to those that have arisen. Central to this discussion are the factors associated with fracking activities that could alter the existing risk context of real estate valuation in communities and the role that information plays in developing risk perceptions. As current examples of these issues, we discuss some specific legal and regulatory changes that have arisen in Pennsylvania.
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This paper investigates the role of geography in high-tech employment growth across U.S. counties. The geographic dimensions examined include industry cluster effects, urbanization effects, proximity to a research university, and proximity in the urban hierarchy. Growth is assessed for overall high-tech employment and for employment in various high-tech sub-sectors. Econometric analyses are conducted separately for samples of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Among our primary findings, we do not find evidence of positive localization or within-industry cluster growth effects, generally finding negative growth effects. We instead find evidence of positive urbanization effects and growth penalties for greater distances from larger urban areas. Universities also appear to play their primary role in creating human capital rather than knowledge spillovers for nearby firms. Quantile regression analysis confirms the absence of within-industry cluster effects and importance of human capital for counties with fast growth in high-tech industries.
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Consumer demand for organic products has widened over the last decade. While new producers have emerged to help meet demand, market participants report that a supply squeeze is constraining growth for both individual fi rms and the organic sector overall. Partly in response to shortages in organic supply, Congress in 2008 included provisions in the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act (2008 Farm Act) that, for the fi rst time, provide fi nancial support to farmers to convert to organic production. This report examines recent economic research on the adoption of organic farming systems, organic production costs and returns, and market conditions to gain a better understanding of the organic supply squeeze and other emerging issues in this rapidly changing industry.
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Considerable ambiguity exists regarding the assessment of regional economic development. Alternative measures often produce conflicting conclusions. Even if economic development progress is defined as improvement in economic welfare, it is not directly measurable. Therefore, this paper develops a theoretical framework that explores the potential linkages between regional utility and commonly used economic measures. State trends in these measures are then examined for the 1990s and related to the theoretical framework. The exercise reveals that no single measure should be preferred in assessing economic development, although it is possible to separate strong performers from weak performers.
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We test for an effect of Arizona's 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA) on the proportion of the state population characterized as foreign-born, as non-citizen, and as non-citizen Hispanic. We use the synthetic control method to select a group of states against which the population trends of Arizona can be compared. We document a notable and statistically significant reduction in the proportion of the Arizona population that is foreign-born and in particular, that is Hispanic noncitizen. The decline observed for Arizona matches the timing of LAWA's implementation, deviates from the time series for the chosen synthetic control group, and stands out relative to the distribution of placebo estimates for the remainder of states in the nation. Furthermore, we do not observe similar declines for Hispanic naturalized citizens, a group not targeted by the legislation. Our results on LAWA's impact on the housing market provide further support for our findings.
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The sources of urban agglomeration and the development of the urban system have been studied extensively. Despite the pivotal role of the hinterlands in theories of the development of the urban system, little attention has been paid to the effect of urban agglomeration in a developed, mature economy on growth in the hinterlands. Therefore, this study examines how proximity to urban agglomeration affects contemporary population growth (PopGr) in hinterland U.S. counties. Proximity to urban agglomeration is measured in terms of both distances to higher tiered areas in the urban hierarchy and proximity to market potential (MP). Particular attention is paid to whether periodic changes and trends in underlying conditions (e.g. technology or transport costs) have altered PopGr patterns in the hinterlands and small urban centers. Over the period 1950–2000, we find strong negative growth effects of distances to higher tiered urban areas, with significant, but lesser effects of distance to MP. Further, the costs of distance, if anything, appear to be increasing over time, consistent with a number of recent theories stressing the effect of new technology on the spatial distribution of activity in a mature urban system.
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Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate. The methods proposed in this article produce informative inference regardless of the number of available comparison units, the number of available time periods, and whether the data are individual (micro) or aggregate (macro). Software to compute the estimators proposed in this article is available at the authors' web-pages.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
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A structural model of regional economic growth is estimated using data for 2243 rural U.S. counties. Five indices designed to capture specific amenity and quality of life characteristics are constructed using fifty-four separate indicators. Results suggest that amenity characteristics can be organized into consistent and meaningful empirical measures that move beyond ad hoc descriptions of amenities. In addition to insights into the influence of local characteristics ranging from tax burdens to income distribution on regional economic growth, results suggest that predictable relationships between amenities, quality of life, and local economic performance exist. Copyright 2001, Oxford University Press.
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Profitable extraction of previously inaccessible shale gas reserves has recently led to rapid expansion of shale exploration across the United States. While there is much enthusiasm surrounding the benefits from this source of energy as a potential path to energy independence, very little is known about the environmental risks associated with this exploration activity. In this paper, we present one of the first empirical studies to measure the impact of early shale exploration as capitalized into surrounding property values. Our dataset combines real estate data, shale well data and land use data in Washington County, Pennsylvania from 2008 to mid-2010 and we estimate the impact of shale activity using a hedonic pricing framework. We find that households are adversely impacted by shale gas exploration activity, but this impact largely depends on the proximity and intensity of shale activity and diminishes over time as risk perceptions adjust following the cessation of exploration activity. While the magnitude of the overall effect of an additional shale well is modest (-1.5%) this impact is heterogeneous. The effect is larger for households sourced with private well water (-3.8%) and is larger and more persistent for properties surrounded by agricultural lands (-7.2%), likely reflecting expectations about the potential for continued shale exploration in these areas.
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ABSTRACT Regional economic models typically either ignore prices altogether or simply treat them as exogenously determined. An unfortunate consequence of the neglect of prices is that model builders have been very much limited in the range of macroeconomic perspectives they have been able to bring to bear on regional economic issues. In this paper, we first explain how prices can be modeled endogenously at a regional level despite the paucity of data on regional prices. Using an illustrative interregional computable general equilibrium model for Malaysia, we then demonstrate how alternative macroeconomic visions of regional systems may be captured.
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The ability to economically produce natural gas from unconventional shale gas reservoirs has been made possible recently through the application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. This new technique has radically changed the energy future of the United States. The U.S. has shifted from a waning producer of natural gas to a growing producer. The Energy Information Administration forecasts that by 2035 nearly half of U.S. natural gas will come from shale gas. Texas is a major player in these developments. Of the eight states and coastal areas that account for the bulk of U.S. gas, Texas has the largest proved reserves. Texas' Barnett Shale already produces six percent of the continental U.S.' gas and exploration of Texas' other shale gas regions is just beginning. Shale gas production is highly controversial, in part because of environmental concerns. Some U.S. states have put hydraulic fracturing moratoriums in place because of fear of drinking water contamination. The federal government has gotten involved and some states, like Texas, have accused it of overreaching. The contention over shale gas drilling in the U.S. may be a bellwether for other parts of the world that are now moving forward with their own shale gas production.
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Multipliers derived from regional Keynesian models are often used to justify regional business assistance programs. Econometric evidence on the efficacy of such programs is inconclusive. A regional, computable, general equilibrium model of key agricultural and energy-producing states was implemented to study the sensitivity of predicted impacts of regional business assistance programs to alternative model closures. The closures fall into two broad categories: Keynesian and neoclassical. The model also improves upon current methods used to evaluate regional business assistance programs.
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Propensity score methodology can be used to help design observational studies in a way analogous to the way randomized experiments are designed: without seeing any answers involving outcome variables. The typical models used to analyze observational data (e.g., least squares regressions, difference of difference methods) involve outcomes, and so cannot be used for design in this sense. Because the propensity score is a function only of covariates, not outcomes, repeated analyses attempting to balance covariate distributions across treatment groups do not bias estimates of the treatment effect on outcome variables. This theme will the primary focus of this article: how to use the techniques of matching, subclassification and/or weighting to help design observational studies. The article also proposes a new diagnostic table to aid in this endeavor, which is especially useful when there are many covariates under consideration. The conclusion of the initial design phase may be that the treatment and control groups are too far apart to produce reliable effect estimates without heroic modeling assumptions. In such cases, it may be wisest to abandon the intended observational study, and search for a more acceptable data set where such heroic modeling assumptions are not necessary. The ideas and techniques will be illustrated using the initial design of an observational study for use in the tobacco litigation based on the NMES data set.
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The tyranny of distance in terms of its effect on median earnings and housing costs is examined for rural and urban U.S. counties. First, we develop a series of distance metrics for an area's remoteness from multiple tiers of the urban hierarchy. Second, we consider geographical access of buyers and sellers through market potential measures typical of those used in empirical studies of the New Economic Geography. We estimate penalties of about 5 to 9% for median earnings and 12 to 17% for housing costs for area remoteness from the combined tiers of the urban hierarchy. Differences in market potential also influence factor prices, but these effects generally are smaller than those produced by urban hierarchy distances. Thus, it appears that empirical tests of New Economic Geography models need to consider sources of agglomeration spillovers beyond aggregate market potential.
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Research consistently shows that natural resource dependence tends to be associated with lower economic growth. However, the studies typically focus on differences across nations or states. We fill a gap in the literature by testing the so-called resource curse at a more disaggregated county level. Our results show clear evidence that resource-dependent counties exhibit more anemic economic growth, even after controlling for state-specific effects, socio-demographic differences, initial income, and spatial correlation. A case study analysis of Maine and Wyoming, and the counties within, highlight the growth effects of specializing in natural resource extraction.
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Most papers that employ Differences-in-Differences estimation (DD) use many years of data and focus on serially correlated outcomes but ignore that the resulting standard errors are inconsistent. To illustrate the severity of this issue, we randomly generate placebo laws in state-level data on female wages from the Current Population Survey. For each law, we use OLS to compute the DD estimate of its "effect" as well as the standard error of this estimate. These conventional DD standard errors severely understate the standard deviation of the estimators: we find an "effect" significant at the 5 percent level for up to 45 percent of the placebo interventions. We use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well existing methods help solve this problem. Econometric corrections that place a specific parametric form on the time-series process do not perform well. Bootstrap (taking into account the autocorrelation of the data) works well when the number of states is large enough. Two corrections based on asymptotic approximation of the variance-covariance matrix work well for moderate numbers of states and one correction that collapses the time series information into a "pre"-and "post"-period and explicitly takes into account the effective sample size works well even for small numbers of states.
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Using geological variation in oil abundance in the Southern US, I examine the long term effects of resource-based specialisation through economic channels. In 1890 oil abundant counties were similar to other nearby counties but after oil was discovered they began to specialise in its production. From 1940-90 oil abundance increased local employment per square kilometre especially in mining but also in manufacturing. Oil abundant counties had higher population growth, higher per capita income and better infrastructure. © 2010 The Author(s). The Economic Journal © 2010 Royal Economic Society.
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Recent advances in drilling technology have allowed for the profitable extraction of natural gas from deep underground shale rock formations. Several reports sponsored by the gas industry have estimated the economic effects of the shale gas extraction on incomes, employment, and tax revenues. None of these reports has been published in an economics journal and therefore have not been subjected to the peer review process. Yet these reports may be influential to the formation of public policy. This commentary provides written reviews of several studies purporting to estimate the economic impact of gas extraction from shale beds. Due to questionable assumptions, the economic impacts estimated in these reports are very likely overstated.
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We examine inference in panel data when the number of groups is small, as is typically the case for difference-in-differences estimation and when some variables are fixed within groups. In this case, standard asymptotics based on the number of groups going to infinity provide a poor approximation to the finite sample distribution. We show that in some cases the t-statistic is distributed as t and propose simple two-step estimators for these cases. We apply our analysis to two well-known papers. We confirm our theoretical analysis with Monte Carlo simulations. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Climate, topography, and water area are highly related to rural county population change over the past 25 years. A natural amenities index, derived and discussed here, captures much of this relationship. Average 1970-96 population change in nonmetropolitan counties was I percent among counties low on the natural amenities index and 120 percent among counties high on the index. Most retirement counties and recreation counties score in the top quarter of the amenities index. Employment change is also highly related to natural amenities, although more so over the past 25 years than in the current decade. The importance of particular amentities varies by region. In the Midwest, for example, people are drawn to lakes for recreation and retirement, while people are attracted to the West for its varied topography.
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This paper investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. Our analysis rests on two different strategies. First, we use a combination of other regions to construct a ``synthetic'' control region which resembles many relevant economic characteristics of the Basque Country before the outset of political terrorism in the 1970's. The subsequent economic evolution of this ``counterfactual'' Basque Country without terrorism is compared to the actual experience of the Basque Country. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percent points relative to the synthetic control region. Moreover, this gap seemed to widen in response to spikes in terrorist activity. The second part of this study uses the truce declared in September 1998 as a natural experiment to estimate the effects of the conflict. If the terrorist conflict was perceived to have a negative impact on the Basque economy, stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country should have shown a positive relative performance as the truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire. We find evidence that is consistent with this conjecture using event study methods.
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In this paper, we examine the impact of the coal boom in the 1970s and the subsequent coal bust in the 1980s on local labour markets in Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. We address two main questions in our analysis. How were non-mining sectors affected by the shocks to the mining sector? How did these effects differ between sectors producing local goods and those producing traded goods? We find evidence of modest employment spillovers into sectors with locally traded goods but not into sectors with nationally traded goods. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.
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This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
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This paper argues that the net economic impact of new firm locations or expansions is determined by a multitude of opposing forces. Using a unique database, I set out to evaluate the net effects of these opposing forces by looking at the net change in local employment and population arising from large (greater than 300 new jobs) firm locations or expansions in the State of Georgia. The analysis suggests that the employment multipliers associated with new firm locations are much less than one; that is, the net employment effect of a large firm opening is smaller than the gross employment impact. This result is consistent with other empirical economic impact studies, which find multipliers much smaller than those of typical input–output models, often less than unity, and a previous study showing little net effect of large plant openings. Expansions of existing establishments are shown to have substantial multiplicative effects, however, with an average employment multiplier of 2.0. I discuss possible reasons for differential impacts across new and expanding firms, focusing on the nature of the firms. Differences in net impact across industries and high-tech versus low-tech firms also is evaluated. I find that the impact of large firm locations or expansions on population in the resident county generally is negative, but positive for the broader region encompassing the county of location and its contiguous neighbors.
Article
This article investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism in the late 1960's, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percentage points relative to a synthetic control region without terrorism. In addition, we use the 1998-1999 truce as a natural experiment. We find that stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country showed a positive relative performance when truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire.
2,500 Oklahoma Earthquakes Linked to Fracking, Scientists Say
  • Emily Atkin
Atkin, Emily, 2014. "2,500 Oklahoma Earthquakes Linked to Fracking, Scientists Say," Climateprogress, July 7. Accessed on July 20, 2014 at http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/07/07/3456931/oklahoma-frackquakes/
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Projecting the Economic Impact of the Fayetteville Shale Play for
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Economic Impacts of Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania: Employment and Income in 2009
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Kelsey, Timothy J., Martin Shields, James Ladlee, Melissa Ward, 2009. "Economic Impacts of Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania: Employment and Income in 2009," Penn State Extension and Penn College.
Chamber's Fracking Boom: Behind the Numbers
  • Kari Lydersen
Lydersen, Kari, 2013. "U.S. Chamber's Fracking Boom: Behind the Numbers," Midwest Energy News (January 10), last accessed at http://www.midwestenergynews.com/2013/01/10/us-chambers-fracking-job-boom-behind-the-numbers/ June 14, 2014.
The Impact of the Marcellus Shale in Northeastern Pennsylvania
  • Sherry Murray
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Murray, Sherry and Teri Ooms, 2008. "The Impact of the Marcellus Shale in Northeastern Pennsylvania," Joint Urban Studies Center. Last accessed On June 15, 2014 at http://www.institutepa.org/PDF/Marcellus/mtwhitepaper.pdf.
Impact of Shale Gas and Tight Oil Boom in Pennsylvania -Actual vs Synthetic Pennsylvania Oil-gas Counties Pennsylvania Top 5 Oil-gas Counties
Figure 3: Impact of Shale Gas and Tight Oil Boom in Pennsylvania -Actual vs Synthetic Pennsylvania Oil-gas Counties Pennsylvania Top 5 Oil-gas Counties 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
America's New Energy Future: The Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution and the US Economy
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