The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability
with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered
changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate
change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on
... [Show full abstract] climate
change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and
validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate
change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature
distribution.