Content uploaded by Thanh Nguyen
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Thanh Nguyen on Nov 27, 2015
Content may be subject to copyright.
Omonrice 14 111-123 (2006)
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
TREND IN RICE PRODUCTION AND EXPORT IN VIETNAM
Nguyen Cong Thanh
1
and Baldeo Singh
2
1
Cuu Long Delta Rice Research Institute
2
Division of Agricultural Extension, IARI, New Delhi, India
ABSTRACT
It is necessary to know the trend in rice production and export of the country to
learn about the reasons why rice production and export of the country is increased
or decreased at specific period. With this meaning, a study on rice production
trend and export in Vietnam last 40 years (from 1965 to 2004) has conducted.
Compound Growth Rates (CGRs) for overall period (1965-2004), of rice area,
yield and production in Vietnam were positive and significant growth at the rate of
1.34; 2.60 and 3.97 per cent per annum, respectively. These were all positive and
significant growth at 1 per cent level of probability. The instability analysis for
overall period (1965-04), showed that overall area, yield, and production were
high instability as compared to each sub-period in which most high instability was
found in rice production (CV= 48.13 %); followed rice yield (CV = 31.81 %) and
rice area (CV = 16.28 %). The contribution in rice production was reduced by both
area effect and yield effect in overall period as compared to each sub-period, and
the interaction effect had increased (28.18 %). Therefore, it can be said that rice
production for total period was interaction of both yield effect and area effect,
which explained for one-third of contribution but more contribution was of yield
effect (52.77 %), followed area effect (19.09 %). In rice export, growth rate from
1965-2004 was very high at 25.39 and 26.09 per cent per annum for export
quantity, and value, respectively. These were positive and significant at 1 per cent
level of probability. With the interesting findings, it can be said that for the
increase in rice production in Vietnam, the most concern is to increase rice yield
by the application of high yielding and quality varieties with suitable rice
production technologies. Because it is difficult to increase in area due to the
limitation of this factor and the area has even declined in the certain periods.
INTRODUCTION
There has been special event of rice
production in the world in 2004, which was
the declaration of 2004 as the International
Year of Rice. This event reflects the
importance of rice in global concerns
regarding food security, poverty alleviation,
preserving cultural heritage and sustainable
development. This is the first time in which an
international year has been focused on one
crop. The theme of "Rice is life" is a sign of
the importance of rice as a primary food and
income source especially in many developing
countries. Focusing on rice internationally
provides an opportunity for the global
community to work toward achieving the
internationally agreed Millennium
Development Goals, which call for the
reduction of poverty and hunger
(http://www.globaled/go, 2005).
Vietnam is one of the most important rice
producers in the world. It has been
contributing significant role in the
international food security. Rice production in
Vietnam plays a crucial role in the
Vietnamese rural economy, with nearly 80 per
cent of Vietnamese farmers cultivating rice.
Geography of Vietnam is diverse, there are
high mountain in North and Central, the Vast
highland in South Central known as Central
Plateau and two big plains i.e. Red River
Delta in the North and Mekong River Delta in
the South. Vietnamese people cultivated rice
since early of their civilization. Rice
cultivation started with the Hoa Binh Culture
and has been developing along the history of
the country, in different geographical regions
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
from North to South. The Mekong Delta (Cuu
Long) has an area of 4 million ha with 16.2
million tons of rice production or half of the
total rice production in Vietnam (Bui 2000).
With high production, Mekong Delta has
contributed about 90 per cent in the total rice
export quantity of the country in recent years
(Le 2003). The economic contributions to
GDP of agriculture, fishery and forestry are
26 per cent, of industry 32.7 per cent and of
services 41.3 per cent, respectively. In 2003,
rice provided approximately 50 per cent of the
agricultural GDP (exclusive of forestry and
fisheries) (Dang and Nguyen 2004). In
agriculture, plant cultivation produces 81.2
per cent, livestock 16.3 per cent and services
only 2.5 per cent. About 30 million tons of
rice is produced on 7.3 million ha every year,
which leads Vietnam from an importer to
second largest rice exporter. Food security,
export orientation and rural development are
assigned the highest priorities in agriculture
policies of Vietnam (UNEP 2004).
It is necessary to know the trend in rice
production and export of the country to learn
about reasons why rice production and export
of the country is increased or decreased at
specific period and to plan our strategy and
policies accordingly to promote rice
production and export. With this meaning, a
study on rice production trend and export in
Vietnam from 1965 to 2004 was conducted.
METHODS
Trend analysis - Growth rate analysis
The statistical tools were used for the analysis
of the secondary data about growth rate of
area, production, yield and quantitative export
of rice from 1965 to 2004 (40 years) at the
national level. This period was divided into 4
sub-periods and each period had 10 years: i)
Under-War period (1965-74); (ii) Post-War
period (1975-84); (iii) Renovation (Doi moi)
period (1985-94); and (iv) Post-Renovation
period (1995-04) and the total period (1965-
04).
To compute the compound growth rate from
these data, the following model was adopted:
Y
t
= ab
t
(1)
Y
t
= Area / production / yield / quantitative
export of rice for the year ‘t’
t = Time variable (1, 2,…..n) for each period /
year
a = Intercept
b = Regression co-efficient
The percentage of compound growth rates (r)
were computed using the relationship:
r = (b-1) x 100 (2)
Instability analysis
Several measures of variability such as range,
standard deviation, variance, and coefficient
of variation were used for measuring stability
and instability in production, area, yield and
export of rice. The time series data on these
parameters decomposed firstly by fitting
linear regression function According to Mehra
(1981), which has been applied by Kumar
(2000) and Siddayya, (2002). The instability
was measured by estimating the coefficient of
variation of production, area as well as yield,
quantity of rice export. The coefficients of
variation of these parameters were calculated
as under:
Analysis on the contribution of area and
yield in total production
Decomposition analysis was carried out to
measure the contribution of area and yield in
total production. The theory and methodology
of decomposition analysis is given as follows:
The observed increase in production of a crop
could be decomposed into different
components, i.e. (i) change in area, (ii) change
in yield and (iii) the interaction between area
and yield. Further, in order to measure the
contribution of area, yield and their
interaction effects in the change in production
of rice during the period from 1965 to 2004,
the following additive scheme of
decomposition given by Minhas and
Vaidyanathan (1965) which has been applied
by Siddayya (2002), was used:
Change in production = Area effect + yield
effect + Interaction effect between area and
yield
∆P =A’ ∆Y + Y’∆A + A ∆Y
Where,
Standard deviation (σ)
CV (%) = --------------------------------- x 100
Mean (
x
)
112
Trend in rice production and export in vietnam
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
111
∆P = Different in production from the base
year to last year (periods)
∆Y = Difference in yield from the base year to
last year (periods)
∆A = Difference in area from the base year to
last year (periods)
A’ = Area in the base year (of each period)
Y’ = Yield of rice crop during base year (of
each period)
Thus, there are three sources of changes in
production (∆P). Y’ ∆A is called as ‘area
effect’, A’∆Y is called ‘yield effect’ ∆A ∆Y is
an ‘interaction effect’, which arises from the
simultaneous occurrence of changes in yield
and area.
Time series analysis – straight-line trend
This technique was used in the drawing the
trend in rice production and export including
trend in area, yield, production and export
quantity over 40 year (1965 – 2005).
The straight-line trend is represented by the
equation:
Y
t
= a + b t
Where,
Y
t
is used to designate the trend values to
distinguish them from the actual Y value,
a is the Y intercept or the computed trend
figure of the Y variable when X=0,
b represents the slop of the trend line or
amount of change in Y variable that is
associated with a change of one unit in X
variable.
X variable in time series analysis represents
time.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
TREND OF RICE AREA, YIELD AND
PRODUCTION IN VIETNAM
Table 1: Trend in rice area, production and yield from 1965 to 2004 (5 year average)
Periods Area
(000 ha)
Yield
(tons/ha)
Production
(000 tons)
1965-69 4,825.4 1.83 8,840.6
1970-74 4,891.6 2.19 10,703.2
1975-79 5,314.0 2.03 10,774.2
1980-84 5,650.2 2.43 13,740.2
1985-89 5,735.2 2.89 16,595.4
1990-94 6,395.8 3.33 21,360.4
1995-99 7,177.4 3.88 27,885.0
2000-04 7,502.4 4.51 33,820.8
Based on FAOSTAT data, last accessed August 2005.
Five-year averages of area, yield and
production in Vietnam are presented in the
Table1. Fig. 1 also illustrated the trends in
area, yield and production in five-year
average. The trend in rice production in 40
years from 1965 to 2004 has been divided into
8 sub-periods starting from 1965-69 to 2000-
04. The results from Table 1 and Fig. 1 have
showed the considerable change in the area,
yield and production in Vietnam after 40
years. The change mainly after 1975 was due
to the unification of the whole country after
war with USA and after following renovation
in the government’s policies.
The five year average of area of rice
production in Vietnam before 1975 did not
change much, but after 1975 to 1989 the rice
area had increased and reached up to more
than 5 million 7 hundred thousands hectares.
It continued to increase year after year and the
number of rice area in the sub-period 1990-
1994 was 6,395.8 million hectares. In the last
two sub-periods 1995-99 and 2000-04, the
rice areas had reached to 7,177.4 and 7,502.4
million hectares for each sub-period
respectively.
The five-year average of rice yield in Vietnam
increased rapidly after 1975. Before 1975, rice
yield was only 1.83 tons per hectare. But
thank to the independence and sharp changes
in the government policies to help the farmers
to invest more in rice production, the rice
113
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
yield increased year after year (Table 1). Rice
yield was more than 2 tons per hectare in the
years 1979 to 1984 and it reached to around 3
tones per hectare and more in the years after
that up to 1990-94. The yield continuously
increased and reached nearly 4 tons and 4.51
tons per hectares for sub-periods 1995-99 and
2000-04, respectively.
For rice production, data from Table 1 and
Fig. 1 revealed the increase considerably after
each sub-period. Before the war (1974), rice
production in Vietnam was only 8,840.6
thousand tons. For some years after that, the
change in rice production was not much. The
reason might be due to inappropriate rice
production management by government. But
after 1980s, rice production in Vietnam had
been increasing more and more following
each sub-period and it reached to 21,360.4
thousand tons in 1990-94; 27,885 thousand
tons in 1995-99 and 33,820.8 thousand tons in
2000-04.
Based on FAOSTAT data, last accessed August 2005.
Fig. 1: Trend in rice area, production and yield in Vietnam from 1965 to 2004
In general, the remarkable increase in rice
area, yield and production in the years 1980s,
1990s and later were the result of Doi moi
(renovation) policies, especially, in the land
and production relations policies of
Vietnamese government complying with new
directions of the Politburo of the Party Central
Committee such as instructions 100 (1979),
the resolutions number 10 (1987) and number
5 (1992). Dang (2001) reported that it was
huge dynamics of Doi Moi policy, in the
1990s that marked the significant period of
Vietnam’s agriculture. There had been the
large shift from the subsistent, self-sufficient
agriculture to commercial agriculture.
GROWTH RATE IN AREA, YIELD AND
PRODUCTION OF PADDY RICE FROM
1965 TO 2004
Table 2 indicates the compound growth rates
(CGRs) of area, yield and production of rice
in Vietnam from 1965 to 2004. As mentioned
in the previous section, four sub-periods of
Vietnam were i) Under-War period (1965-74);
(ii) Post-War period (1975-84); (iii)
Renovation (Doi moi) period (1985-94); and
(iv) Post-Renovation period (1995-04) and the
total period (1965-04) taken into
consideration.
1.83 2.19 2.03 2.43 2.89 3.33 3.88 4.51
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1965-69 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04
Area (000 ha)
Yield (tonnes/ha)
Production (000 tonnes)
114
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
The results from the table revealed that in the
period (i) under-war period (1965-74), rice
area in Vietnam had shown a negative and
insignificant growth rate of 0.58 per cent per
annum. The growth rates of both yield and
production were the lowest at 2.46 and 3.06
per annum and these were the positive
significant growth at 5 and 1 per cent levels
respectively. It is clear from the lowest growth
rate in this period that this was due to the war
against the invasion of America.
The period (ii) Post-War period (1975-84)
was signified by the new agricultural
development of the country after unification
of whole country. In this period, the growth
rates in area, yield and production were 1.31;
3.30 and 4.65 per cent per annum and these
were positive and significant at 1; 5 and 1 per
cent levels, respectively.
The period (iii) Renovation or Doi moi (1985-
94) indicated the highest growth in both
production and area and very high in rice
yield. It is also clear that these high growth
rates were due to the sharp and creative
policies of the leading party and the
government in the economic development in
general and agricultural development in
particular. From this economic reform, rice
production had resulted in high CGRs in
terms of area; yield and production i.e. 2.02;
3.04 and 5.13 per cent per annum,
respectively and these growths were positive
and significant at 1 per cent levels.
The period (iv) Post-Renovation (1995-04)
demonstrated that the country had
continuously made innovation in the economy
and agriculture. Despite of this sub-period
where in country suffered much more from
natural calamities, the rice production had
increased with the CGRs at 0.95; 3.03 and
4.01 per cent per annum for area, yield and
production, respectively. These were found
positive growth at 5 per cent for area and 1
per cent levels of significant for both yield
and production.
For the overall period (1965-04), the CGRs of
rice area, yield and production of Vietnam
were positive and significant growth at the
rate of 1.34; 2.60 and 3.97 per cent per
annum, respectively and these were positive
and significant growth at 1 per cent level of
probability.
Table 2: Compound growth rates in area, yield and production of paddy rice (%)
Periods Area Yield Production
(i) 1965-1974 0.58
NS
2.46
*
3.06
**
(ii) 1975-1984 1.31
**
3.30
*
4.65
**
(iii) 1985-1994 2.02
**
3.04
**
5.13
**
(iv) 1995-2004 0.95
*
3.03
**
4.01
**
(T) 1965-2004 1.34
**
2.60
**
3.97
**
**;
*
= Statistically significant at 1and 5 per cent level of probability;
NS
= Not significant.
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS IN AREA,
YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF PADDY
RICE
It is very necessary to analyze instability of
Vietnamese rice production in terms of area,
yield and production. Results from the Table 3
indicate the instability of these terms in the
four sub-periods and the entire period (1965-
04) based on the coefficient of variations
(CVs) of rice area, yield and production.
Results in Table 3 shows that in case of rice
area, the coefficient of variations was more
stable at (i) sub-period (CV = 2.94 %) as
compared to other sub-periods. The most
unstable was observed in the (iii) sub-period
(1985-94, CV = 6.38 %), followed by (ii) sub-
period (1975-84, CV = 4.62 %) and (iv) sub-
period (1995-04, CV = 3.99 %). The reason
for high instability in these sub-periods might
be due to the high growth rates in rice area in
these sub-periods.
Trend in rice production and export in Vietnam
115
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
Table 3: Coefficient of variation in area, yield, and production of paddy (%)
Periods Area Yield Production
(i) 1965-1974 2.94 9.87 10.83
(ii) 1975-1984 4.62 13.64 16.17
(iii) 1985-1994 6.38 9.58 15.74
(iv) 1995-2004 3.99 9.13 11.89
(T) 1965-2004 16.28 31.81 48.13
Based on FAOSTAT data, last accessed August 2005.
In case of rice yield, it was seen from Table 3
that more stability (i.e. low CVs) was found at
two sub-periods (i) and (iv) (CV = 9.87 &
9.13 %, respectively). The reason for this
might be the almost same in the growth rates
of rice yield at these two sub-periods. The
most instability was found at sub-period (ii)
(1975-84, CV = 13.64 %), followed by sub-
period (iii) (1985-94, CV = 9.58 %). This is
due to the agricultural reform policies in these
two sub-periods that resulted rapid growth
rate and led to more instabilities.
In case of rice production, it was observed
that most stable growth was in the (i) period
(CV = 10.38 %). For other three sub-periods
(ii) 1975-84; (iii) 1985-94 and (iv) 1995-04, it
was found that most unstable was (ii) sub-
period, followed by (iii) and (iv) sub-period,
with the coefficient of variations equal to
16.17; 15.74 and 11.89 per cent, respectively.
For the entire period (1965-04), instability
analysis showed that all area, yield, and
production were shown high instability as
compared to each sub-period, in which high
instability was found in rice production (CV=
48.13 %); followed by rice yield (CV= 31.81
%) and rice area (CV= 16.28 %). Production
was more unstable than yield and yield was
more unstable than area. This means that there
was the quantitative increase considerably in
term of production followed by yield and area
of the entire period as well as compared to
each period.
CONTRIBUTION OF AREA AND YIELD
IN PADDY PRODUCTION
The change in rice production over time takes
place either due to change in area or its yield
or a combination of these factors. The
contribution of each of these factors towards
change in the production of rice in Vietnam
was decomposed in terms of area effect; yield
effect and interaction effect during last 40
years (1965-2004) and the results are
presented in the Table 4. The decomposition
of area effect, yield effect and interaction
effect in rice production were analyzed for
each period.
In (i) sub-period (1965-74) under-war period,
rice production in Vietnam was mainly
contributed by yield effect which explained of
63.22 per cent change, followed by area effect
of 33.04 per cent and the interaction effects of
this periods was very small at only 3.75 per
cent.
In the (ii) and (iii) period (1975-84 & 1985-
94), the increase in rice production was almost
in same percentage by area effect (33.40 %
and 31.96 %, respectively). The contribution
of yield effect somewhat reduced at these two
sub-periods (56.99 % and 58.95 %,
respectively) and the interaction effect had
increased to 9.61 and 9.08 per cent as
compared to first sub-period. It means that
these two sub-periods were relatively
synchronically for all factors of area, yield
and production as compared to other sub-
periods.
In the (iv) period (1995-04), rice production
was mainly contributed by yield effect, which
explained for more than two-third of
contribution by yield effect (71.16 %). The
contribution of area effect was reduced at this
sub-period as compared to three previous sub-
periods (22.17 %) and the interaction effect
was 6.67 per cent.
116
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
Table 4: Contribution of area and yield in production of paddy from 1965 to 2004
Periods Area effect
Y’ ∆A
Yield effect
A’ ∆Y
Interaction effect
∆A ∆Y
(i) 1965-1974 554840 (33.04) 1061720 (63.22) 62920 (3.75)
(ii) 1975-1984 1736280 (33.40) 2962160 (56.99) 499590 (9.61)
(iii) 1985-1994 2449180 (31.96) 4517220 (58.95) 695990 (9.08)
(iv) 1995-2004 2339460 (22.17) 7510260 (71.16) 703740 (6.67)
(T) 1965-2004 4993560 (19.09) 13802360 (52.77) 7361640 (28.14)
- Figures in parentheses indicate the percentage changes of area, yield and interaction effect on
production.
- Area (000 ha), Yield (tons/ha) and Production (000 tons)
For the entire period (1965-04), contribution
in rice production was reduced to both area
effect and yield effect as compared to each
sub-period, and the interaction effect had
increased to 28.18 per cent. Therefore, it can
be said that rice production for total period
was interaction of both yield effect and area
effect, which explained for one-third of
contribution but more contribution, was of
yield effect (52.77 %), followed by area effect
(19.09 %).
With the interesting findings, it can be said
that for the increase in rice production in
Vietnam, the most concern is to increase rice
yield by the application of high yielding and
quality varieties along with suitable rice
production technologies. Because it is difficult
to increase in area due to the limitation of this
factor and the area has even declined in the
certain periods.
TREND IN RICE EXPORT IN VIETNAM
Data in the Table 5, Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 (Fig. 3
for the export per year from 1985-04) present
the milled rice export and its export value in
5-year average. It was seen from the Table 5
that in the first three sub-periods (1965 to
1979), milled rice export from Vietnam was
around 10 thousand tons and below. In the
sub-periods of 1980-84 and 1985-89, milled
rice export increased up to 46.26 and 364.60
thousand tones, respectively. This rapid
increase in rice export was attributed to the
Doi moi policies in agriculture that resulted
into more rice surplus for export from this
time and maintained the momentum for the
later sub-periods also.
Thank to the Doi moi policies that after the
1980s, 1990s, rice production in Vietnam has
been increasing rapidly and the export has
also increased considerably. The milled rice
export in the last three sub-periods (1990-94;
1995-99 & 2000-04) had reached to more than
1; 3 and nearly 4 million tons, respectively.
Table 5: Trend in rice export in Vietnam from 1965 to 2004 (5-year average)
Periods Milled rice (000 tons) Export value (million USD)
1965-69 8.28 1.23
1970-74 6.30 1.08
1975-79 10.72 3.24
1980-84 46.26 13.78
1985-89 364.60 74.19
1990-94 1661.56 348.97
1995-99 3360.82 860.15
2000-04 3664.48 703.68
Based on FAOSTAT data, last accessed August 2005.
In case of export values, there was also the
increase after each period following the export
quantity until the last three sub-periods (1990-
94; 1995-99 & 2000-04), which were 348.97;
860.15 and 703.68 million USD respectively.
Trend in rice production and export in Vietnam
117
Omonrice 14 111-123 (2006)
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
Source: FAOSTAT data, last accessed August 2005.
Fig. 2: Trend in five-year average of rice export and export value from 1965-2004
In general, the success in rice export in
Vietnam resulted from the innovation in the
economy and agriculture. Dang (2001) stated
that in ten years period (1989-99), agricultural
production growth had increased continuously
and reached to the growth rate of 4.3 per cent
per annum. This development was relatively
comprehensive and sustainable. Rice yield
increased by 33 per cent. National food
security was ensured. From an importing
country, which every year imported from
600,000 to 1 million tons of rice but until the
year 1989-90, Vietnam had started export 1.4
million tons of rice, and rice export
continuously increased and reached at the
highest of 4.5 million tons in 1999. In the year
2000, the total food grains reached to 35.64
million tons.
Source: FAOSTAT data, last accessed August 2005.
Fig. 3: Trend in total rice export and export value from 1985 to 2004
1.23 1.08 3.24 13.78 74.19
348.97
860.15
703.68
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1965-69 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04
Milled rice (000
tonnes)
Export value (million
USD)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2004
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Milled rice (000T)
Value (mil. USD)
118
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
GROWTH RATE IN RICE EXPORT FROM VIETNAM
Table 6: Growth rates in rice export from 1965 to 2004 (%)
Periods Milled rice Value
(i) 1965-1974 -8.38
NS
-0.57
NS
(ii) 1975-1984 26.31
*
27.24
*
(iii) 1985-1994 53.66
**
55.02
**
(iv) 1995-2004 4.56
NS
-0.32
NS
(T) 1965-2004 25.39
**
26.09
**
** = Statistically significant at 1 per cent level of probability.
The results of the growth rate of rice export
analysis for both quantity and value have been
presented in the Tables 6. It is also divided
into 4 sub-periods and entire period as the rice
production.
In the (i) period (1965-74) Under-War period,
it was found that growth in both export
quantity and value was negative and non
significant (-8.38 and -0.57, respectively).
For the period (ii) Post-War period (1975-84),
the government started their new policies, and
it resulted into relatively high growth rate for
both export quantity and value (26.31 % and
27.24 % per annum, respectively) and these
were positive and significant growth at 5 per
cent of probability.
The period (iii) renovation period (1985-94)
witnessed rapid increase in rice export in the
country, which was gained from the results of
renovation in economic and agricultural
development. This sub-period recorded the
highest growth rate so far in both export
quantity and value with 63.66 and 55.02 per
cent per annum, respectively. These were the
positive and significant growth at 1 per cent
level.
In the last period (iv) post-renovation period
(1995-04), the growth was stable in rice
export of the country (around 3 – 4 million
tons for almost ten years of this sub-period).
The export growth rate was low at 4.56 per
cent per annum, a non significant growth. For
export value, the growth rate was negative (-
0.32 % per annum) and also non significant.
The reason for this negative growth in export
value might be due to the decrease in rice
export price during this sub-period.
For entire period (1965-04), the growth rate
was very high at 25.39 and 26.09 per cent per
annum for export quantity and export value
respectively, and these were positive and
significant at 1 per cent level of probability.
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS OF RICE
EXPORT IN VIETNAM
The study also attempted to analyze the
instability of rice export in terms of both
quantity and value. The results of these
analyses are presented in the Table 7.
It can be seen from the Table 7 that the
quantity of milled rice export and its values
were mostly stable in the (iv) period (1995-
04) (CV = 19.31 and 20.74 %, respectively).
Table 7: Coefficient of variation of rice export from 1965 to 2004 (%)
Periods Milled rice Value
(i) 1965-1974 97.04 95.08
(ii) 1975-1984 111.10 108.52
(iii) 1985-1994 81.83 82.30
(iv) 1995-2004 19.31 20.74
(T) 1965-2004 134.67 136.30
Source: FAOSTAT data, last accessed August 2005.
The most instable period was found in the
sub-period (ii) (1975-1984) with coefficient of
variations equal to 111.10 and 108.52 per cent
for export quantity and value. For the overall
Trend in rice production and export in Vietnam
119
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
period, the situation was highly unstable in
term of export quantity and value (134.67 &
136.30 % respectively). The reasons for this
unstable and stable growth of each sub-period
can be found out from the above explanations.
Fig. 4a, 4b, 4c and 4d depict the trend in rice
area, yield and production of India from 1965
to 2004, which was drawn based on the
technique of Time series analysis – straight
line trend (Y
t
= a + bt ).
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
20051995198519751965
7500
6500
5500
4500
Area (000 ha)
(Years)
Yt = 4301308 + 79765.5*t
MSD:
MAD:
MAPE:
6.29E+10
192682
3
Trend Analysis for Vietnam's Rice Area
Linear Trend Model
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
20051995198519751965
5
4
3
2
1
Yield (T/ha)
(Years)
Yt = 1.34915 + 7.50E-02*t
MSD:
MAD:
MAPE:
0.07230
0.21550
8.76841
Trend Analysis for Vietnam's Rice Yield
Linear Trend Model
120
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
Fig. 4a, 4b, 4c and 4d
Note: MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error (%), MAD = Mean Absolute Deviation and MSD = Mean
Squared Deviation
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
20051995198519751965
3500
2500
1500
500
Production (000 T)
(Years)
Yt = 355.482 + 70.2934*t
MSD:
MAD:
MAPE:
70388.4
236.7
16.3
Trend Analysis for Vietnam's Rice Production
Linear Trend Model
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
20051995198519751965
4000
2000
0
Export (000 T)
(Years)
Yt = -1193135 + 113830*t
MSD:
MAD:
MAPE:
5.73E+11
636972
4477
Trend Analysis for Vietnam's Rice Export
Linear Trend Model
Trend in rice production and export in Vietnam
121
Omonrice 14 111-123 (2006)
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
CONCLUSION
Rice production in
Vietnam had increased
rapidly in rice area, yield and production in
the years 1980s, 1990s and after that were the
result of Doi Moi (renovation) policies,
especially in the land and production relations
renovation policies of Vietnamese
government complying with new directions of
the Politburo of the Party Central Committee
such as instructions 100 (1979), the
resolutions number 10 (1987) and number 5
(1992). Dang (2001) reported that thank to the
huge dynamics of Doi Moi (Reform,
Innovation) policy, in the 1990s that was
marked the significant period of Vietnam’s
agriculture. There was the large-scale shift
from the subsistent, self-sufficient agriculture
to commercial agriculture
The CGRs for the overall period (1965-04), of
rice area, yield and production in Vietnam
were positive and significant growth at the
rate of 1.34; 2.60 and 3.97 per cent per
annum, respectively. These were all positive
and significant growth at 1 per cent level of
probability. The instability analysis for overall
period (1965-04), showed that overall area,
yield, and production were high instability as
compared to each sub-period in which most
high instability was found in rice production
(CV= 48.13 %); followed rice yield (CV=
31.81 %) and rice area (CV= 16.28 %).
Production was more unstable than yield and
yield was more unstable than area. These
meant that there was the quantitative increase
considerably in term of production following
yield and area of the entire period as well as
compared to each period.
The contribution in rice production was
reduced by both area effect and yield effect in
overall period as compared to each sub-
period. The interaction effect had increased
(28.18 %). Therefore, it can be said that the
rice production for total period was the
interaction of both yield effect and area effect
which explained for one-third of contribution
but more contribution was of yield effect
(52.77 %), followed area effect (19.09 %).
In rice export, the growth rate from 1965-04
was very high at 25.39 and 26.09 per cent per
annum for export quantity, value,
respectively. These were positive and
significant at 1 per cent level of probability.
The most instability was found in the both
sub-period (ii) (1975-1984) with CV equal to
111.10 and 108.52 per cent for export quantity
and value. And the overall period was highest
unstable in term of export quantity and value
(134.67 and 136.30 %, respectively).
With the interesting findings, it can be said
that for the increase in rice production in
Vietnam, the most concern is to increase rice
yield by the application of high yielding and
quality varieties along with suitable rice
production technologies. Because it is difficult
to increase in area due to the limitation of this
factor and the area has even declined in the
certain periods.
REFERENCES
Bui Ba Bong. 2000. Genetic Improvement of
Rice Varieties for the Mekong Delta of
Vietnam: Current Status and future
Approaches. Proceedings of the
Conference on Rice Research and
Development in Vietnam for the 21
st
Century – Aspects of Vietnam – India
Cooperation. CLRRI: 123, 130.
Dang Kim Son. 2001. “Industrialization from
Agriculture, Theory, Practice and
Prospect of Application in Vietnam”.
(Vietnamese). Publisher of Agriculture –
Hanoi, Vietnam: 176-177, 179-180.
Dang Kim Son, Nguyen Ngoc Que. 2004.
Vietnam’s Reform Policy and Rice
Production - Rice’s Vital Role in
Vietnam’s Agriculture. Paper presented in
the Mekong Rice Conference, Ho Chi
Minh City, Vietnam 15 – 17 October,
2004.
http://www.globaled/go. 2004. International
World Rice Day. (Last accessed July
2005).
Kumar A. 2000. Performance of India’s Rice
Export – An Economic Analysis. M.Sc.
Thesis. Department of Agriculture
Marketing and Cooperation. University of
Agricultural Science, Bangalore, India:
35-41, 54-56.
120
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
Nguyen Cong Thanh et al.
OMONRICE 14 (2006)
110
Le cao Thanh. 2003. The solutions in
promotion of Transfer of Technology for
Rice Production in the Cuulong River
Delta, Period of 2003 – 2010. Ph.D. thesis
of Economics. University of Economics
of Ho Chi Minh City, Ministry of
Education and Training. (Vietnamese):
105-109.
Siddayya. 2002. Accelerating Growth of
Pigeon pea Production in Karnataka:
Constraints and Policy Perspective. A
M.Sc. Thesis submitted to the Division of
Agricultural Economics. IARI, New Delhi
110012: 23-27.
UNEP-GEF (United Nations Environment
Programme). 2004. Project on
Development of National Bio-safety
Frameworks Global Environment Facility
15, Geneva, Switzerland. Vietnam’s
National Progress Report Submitted to the
Third Series of Sub-regional Workshops
(2003/2004).
Phân tích chiều hướng phát triển của sản xuất và xuất khẩu lúa gạo ở Việt Nam
Người ta muốn biết chiều hướng phát triển của sản xuất và xuất khẩu lúa gạo của một nước để
tìm hiểu lý do tại sao sản xuất và xuất khẩu lúa gạo tăng hoặc giảm tại một thời kỳ cụ thể. Với ý
nghĩa này, chúng tôi đã tiến hành nghiên cứu về chiều hướng phát triển của sản xuất và xuất
khẩu lúa gạo của Việt Nam trong 40 năm qua (từ 1965 đến 2004). Kết quả chủ yếu của nghiên
cứu là: tỷ lệ tăng trưởng phối hợp (CGRs) của cả thời kỳ (1965-04), diện tích 1,34% năm, năng
suất 2,60%, và sản lượng lúa ở Việt Nam 3,97%. Sự gia tăng này đều có ý nghĩa thống kê ở
mức 1%. Phân tích tính chất không ổn định cho cả thời kỳ (1965-04), cho thấy: diện tích, năng
suất và sản lượng đều có tính không ổn định cao khi so sánh với mỗi thời kỳ; trong đó tính
không ổn định cao nhất tìm thấy ở sản lượng lúa (CV= 48.13%); năng suất (CV= 31.81%), diện
tích lúa (CV= 16.28%). Sự đóng góp vào sản lượng lúa giảm bởi cả hai tác động: diện tích gieo
trồng và năng suất trong cả thời kỳ, khi so sánh với mỗi thời kỳ nhỏ và sự tác động tương quan
đã gia tăng 28,18%. Sản lượng lúa cho cả thời kỳ là sự phối hợp tác động tương quan của cả hai
yếu tố: năng suất và diện tích; chúng đóng góp 1/3 vào sản lượng. Trong đó riêng năng suất tác
động (52.77%), theo sau diện tích tác động (19.09 %). Đối với xuất khẩu, tỷ lệ tăng trưởng từ
năm 1965-04 rất cao, với 25.39% về số lượng và 26.09% về giá trị. Sự tăng trưởng này là tăng
trưởng dương và có ý nghĩa thống kê ở mức 1%. Muốn gia tăng sản lượng lúa ở Việt Nam,
chúng ta cần phải gia tăng năng suất lúa bằng việc áp dụng những giống năng suất và chất lượng
cao, cùng với kỹ thuật sản xuất tiến bộ. Bởi vì chúng ta sẽ rất khó gia tăng diện tích do sự giới
hạn của yếu tố này và thậm chí diện tích còn bị giảm sút trong vài thời kỳ nhất định.
Trend in rice production and export in Vietnam
123
