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All content in this area was uploaded by Susumu Shikano on Oct 24, 2014
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years
frequency of dissenting opinions
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
yij i j yij
Pr(yij = 1) = 1
1 + |xi−aj|2b
xii ajj
xi=aj
xiajb
b= 10
b < 1
−10 −5 0 5 10
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
xi
Pr((yij == 1))
a=0; b=1a=−5; b=0.5 a=5; b=5
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Latent Dimension
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Kutscher
Leibholz
Geller
V..Schlabrendorff
Rupp
Seuffert
Geiger
Hirsch
Rottmann
Wand
Rinck
Steinberger
Niebler
Zeidler
Träger
Mahrenholz
Böckenförde
Klein
Graßhof
Kruis
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Latent Dimension
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Franßen
Kirchhof
Winter
Sommer
Limbach
Jentsch
Hassemer
Broß
Osterloh
Di.Fabio
Mellinghoff
Lübbe.Wolff
Gerhardt
Landau
Voßkuhle
Huber
Hermanns
Müller
Kessal.Wulf
−0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
SPD/FDP (1970−1982)
CDU/CSU/FDP (1982−1998)
SPD/Grüne (1998−2005)
CDU/CSU/SPD (2005−2009)
CDU/CSU/FDP (2009−2013)
CDU/CSU/SPD (2013−2014)
mean decision
SPD approval
CDU approval
SPD rejection
CDU rejection
xi=β0+β1ZSP D
i+β2Zpm
i+β3ZP C
i+β4Zla
i+β5ZSP D
iZpm
i+β6ZSP D
iZP C
i+β7ZSP D
iZla
i+i
ZSP D Zpm ZP C
Zla
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intercept
SPD nomination
party membership
political career
lifetime appointment
SPD nom x PM
SPD nom x PC
SPD nom x LA
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−2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
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CDU nom: without party membership
SPD nom: without party membership
CDU nom: with party membership
SPD nom: with party membership
CDU nom: with party membership + political career
SPD nom: with party membership + political career
CDU nom: with party membership + lifetime appointment
SPD nom: with party membership + lifetime appointment
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−1.5 −1 −0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5