Conference Paper

Impact of Financing Cost on Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030

Authors:
  • Chris Werner Energy Consulting
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract

Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.

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... Residential Electricity Price (€/kWh). Based on(Gerlach et al. 2014;Breyer and Gerlach 2013) ...
... Commercial Electricity Price (€/kWh). Based on(Gerlach et al. 2014;Breyer and Gerlach 2013) ...
... Industrial Electricity Price (€/kWh). Based on(Gerlach et al. 2014;Breyer and Gerlach 2013) ...
... A gap of ± 3% tolerance versus actual cumulated capacity was allowed in comparison to the 2014 cumulated installed capacity. The further progress of the curve towards 2050 was provided by the maximum PV capacity described in both the 'LOW and HIGH scenarios' for each country in combination with results on Residential Grid-Parity, Industrial Grid-Parity and Fuel-Parity from previous publications [15]. Without subsidy scheme, any type of parity, but Grid-Parity especially, provides the economic basis for the PV market. ...
... Furthermore, PV development in these countries has been very stable in recent years and thus very predictable, showing constant growth rates of about 30% and 40% respectively [5]. With high solar irradiations and relatively high conventional grid power prices solar power is today an attractive cost option ranging from the residential to the utility scale segments [15]. This leads to PV installations expected to take off in near future to reach 3,900 MWp of cumulative installed solar capacity by end of 2020, while 461 MWp have been installed till the end of 2015. ...
... By combining the unique results of this methodology with data on historical data and future forecasts on PV system costs, an estimation of expected PV investments is possible. System costs are expected to decrease down to a global average of 1,200 USD/kWp by 2020, 714 USD/kWp by 2030 and 580 USD/kWp by 2040 [15]. In the example of Russia given in Figure 14, 101 billion USD are expected to be invested into PV until 2040 enabling the installation of 154,000 MWp of PV in that period. ...
Conference Paper
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The paper addresses the key question of assessing potential future PV development in every country. Especially after the phase out or in the absence of any financial policy support, subsidies or political barriers influencing PV development, a sustainable and thus highly predictable PV development is assumed. The method proposed in this paper is of major interest to anticipate the potential development of PV in emerging markets where, the absence of any significant financial support scheme has usually prevented the uptake of policy driven (and non-competitive based) PV market. Therefore, in most of these markets, PV has been installed solely due to its intrinsic competitiveness in comparison to other power generation technologies. The method thus assumes that PV is transitioning towards a post-subsidy era and that the long-term PV development in any given country will be driven by its true competitiveness only. The paper presents an overview of PV development scenarios in 21 countries of which 4 highly contrasted examples are analysed in more details and will be a basis for evaluating a closer analysis of all other PV markets future developments.
... There is lot of interest in solar photovoltaic (PV) Producer and Consumers (Prosumers) all over the world, as the cost for PV systems are steadily decreasing and by the end of 2020 most residential electricity market segments will have reached grid-parity for solar PV [1] [2]. By optimizing the self-consumption ratio (SCR), this advantage can be exploited more. ...
... Numbers for financial values of system components and grid prices are based on the LUT Energy System model and available (cf. [1], [2] and [10], Table A7). For the BEVs no storage costs are considered as it is assumed that the batteries are paid with the car anyway. ...
Conference Paper
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PV prosumers may be one of the most important market segments in the energy transition. By using one's own energy on the spot of production, PV prosumers have a significant possibility of supplying their own demands with cheap and pollution-free energy. This becomes most profitable by maximising self-consumption while avoiding large amounts of excess electricity being fed into the grid. Storage technologies, heat pumps and battery electric vehicles help to contribute to the highest possible self-consumption ratio for residential PV prosumer systems, which can reach grid-parity within the next decade in most regions of the world. The study provides a detailed overview of 8 regions on all continents and traces the benefits of PV prosumer systems for the world structured in 145 regions. A most noticeable threshold for the economical maximum battery capacity per installed PV capacity has been found, even independently of the inclusion of battery electric vehicles. Very high self-consumption ratios, demand cover ratios and heat cover ratios can be observed.
... There is growing interest in solar photovoltaics (PV) all over the world, as costs for PV systems are steadily declining and by the end of 2020 are expected to achieve grid-parity in the remaining residential electricity markets (Gerlach et al., 2014;Breyer and Gerlach, 2013). Today, solar PV has become a major actor in the electricity sectors of several countries. ...
... Standard capex and opex costs are considered for all technologies across the different regions of the world, as costs of these technologies are assumed to converge towards a global standard from a long-term perspective. Moreover, the retail electricity tariffs (grid electricity prices) are from various sources that are collated in Gerlach et al., (2014) and in Breyer and Gerlach, (2013). The further regional categorisation of the retail electricity tariffs is based on averages across individual regions according to the electricity consumption of the respective regions. ...
Article
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Globally, PV prosumers account for a significant share of the total installed solar PV capacity, which is a growing trend with ever-increasing retail electricity prices. Further propelled by performance improvements of solar PV and innovations that allow for greater consumer choice, with additional benefits such as cost reductions and availability of incentives. PV prosumers may be one of the most important enablers of the energy transition. PV prosumers are set to gain the most by maximising self-consumption, while avoiding large amounts of excess electricity being fed into the grid. Additionally, electricity and heat storage technologies, heat pumps and battery electric vehicles are complementary to achieve the highest possible self-consumption shares for residential PV prosumer systems, which can reach grid-parity within this decade in most regions of the world. This research finds the cost optimal mix of the various complementary technologies such as batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps and thermal heat storage for PV prosumers across the world by exploring 4 different scenarios. Furthermore, the research presents the threshold for economical maximum battery capacity per installed PV capacity, along with self-consumption ratios, demand cover ratios and heat cover ratios for 145 different regions across the world. This is a first of its kind study to conduct a global analysis of PV prosumers with a range of options to meet their complete energy demand from a future perspective, up to 2050. Maximising self-consumption from solar PV generation to meet all energy needs will be the most economical option in the future, for households across most regions of the world.
... The technical assumptions for energy to power ratios of storage technologies, efficiency numbers for generation and storage technologies and power losses in HVDC transmission lines [55] and converters are presented in Tables B, C and D of S1 File. Price of electricity for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries is taken from Gerlach et al. [56] and only applied for deriving beneficial self-consumption of PV prosumers. The electricity prices for Nepal and Bhutan are assumed to be similar to India. ...
... Efficiency assumptions for HVDC transmission[55]. Table E: Regional grid electricity costs[56].Table F: Average full load hours and LCOE for PV single-axis tracking, PV optimally tilted, CSP and wind power plants in SAARC sub-regions. Table G: Regional biomass potentials and geothermal energy potentials. ...
Article
The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable , universally accessible, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy system is simulated for SAARC for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand, and showed the system cost decreased by 5% and total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. One of the limitations of this study is the cost of land for installation of renewables which is not included in the LCOE calculations, but regarded as a minor contribution.
... This model aims at minimising the cost of consumed electricity for these potential prosumers. Electricity prices for modelling residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries, which was estimated using the methodology in Breyer and Gerlach [47], are taken from Gerlach et al. [48]. Future prices were estimated based on the assumptions given in Refs. ...
... Future prices were estimated based on the assumptions given in Refs. [47,48], which indicate that electricity prices rise by 5% per annum for prices <0.15 V/kWh, by 3% per annum for prices 0.15e0.30 V/kWh and by 1% per annum for prices >0.30 ...
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A high temporal and spatial resolution energy transition study was performed using a linear optimization based energy system transition model. The study uses Israel's electricity sector dataset, which has important characteristics typical for several Sun Belt countries. It has 7 scenarios aimed at assessing the impacts of various policy factors, such as carbon cost and coupling to the water sector. Under the present renewable electricity technology cost projections, a carbon cost only speeds up the transitions into renewable electricity. However, a No Carbon Cost scenario also achieves comparable results by 2050 (with only 2% fossil). The levelized cost of electricity in 2050 was shown to be less than that of 2015 in all scenarios except under the Current Policy. The Current Policy scenario will significantly increase the cost of electricity in the post-2020 period even when a carbon cost is ignored. The observed emission reduction comes after 2030 but there are still significant emissions by 2050. This shows that Israel's present energy policy carries multiple risks to the nation. Alternatively, Sun Belt countries, such as Israel, can speed the transition of the electricity sector without the need to implement carbon cost, only by promoting solar photovoltaics and supporting batteries.
... Minimising the cost of consumed energy is the main aim of the target function for the prosumers. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from Gerlach et al. [31]. The electricity prices for 2030 are calculated according to the assumptions from Gerlach et al. [31] that grid electricity prices rise by 5% per annum for <0.15 €/kWh, by 3% per annum for 0.15-0.30 ...
... Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from Gerlach et al. [31]. The electricity prices for 2030 are calculated according to the assumptions from Gerlach et al. [31] that grid electricity prices rise by 5% per annum for <0.15 €/kWh, by 3% per annum for 0.15-0.30 €/kWh and by 1% per annum for >0.30 €/kWh. ...
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The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
... The numbers are related to energy to power ratios for storage technologies, efficiency for generation and storage technologies, and power losses in HVDC power lines [41] and converters. Electricity prices for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from Gerlach et al. [42]. The electricity prices for Mongolia and North Korea are assumed to be similar to China. ...
... The prices for South Korea are assumed to be similar to Japan. The electricity prices for 2030 are calculated according to the assumption from Gerlach et al. [42] that grid electricity prices rise by 5% per annum for <€0.15/kWh, by 3% per annum for €0.15-0.30/kWh, and by 1% per annum for >€0.30/kWh. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement points out that countries need to shift away from the existing fossil-fuel-based energy system to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. A cost-optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for East Asia for the year 2030, covering demand by power, desalination, and industrial gas sectors on an hourly basis for an entire year. East Asia was divided into 20 sub-regions and four different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage grid connection, and additional demand sectors: power, desalination, industrial gas, and a renewable-energy-based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) trading between regions. The integrated RE-SNG scenario gives the lowest cost of electricity (€52/MWh) and the lowest total annual cost of the system. Results contradict the notion that long-distance power lines could be beneficial to utilize the abundant solar and wind resources in Australia for East Asia. However, Australia could become a liquefaction hub for exporting RE-SNG to Asia and a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in East Asia with the cost assumptions used. This may also be more cost-competitive than nuclear and fossil fuel carbon capture and storage alternatives.
... Minimising the cost of consumed energy is the main aim of the target function for the prosumers. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from Gerlach et al. [31]. The electricity prices for 2030 are calculated according to the assumptions from Gerlach et al. [31] that grid electricity prices rise by 5% per annum for <0.15 €/kWh, by 3% per annum for 0.15-0.30 ...
... Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from Gerlach et al. [31]. The electricity prices for 2030 are calculated according to the assumptions from Gerlach et al. [31] that grid electricity prices rise by 5% per annum for <0.15 €/kWh, by 3% per annum for 0.15-0.30 €/kWh and by 1% per annum for >0.30 €/kWh. ...
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
... Calculated solid biomass, biogas and solid wasted potentials and costs are presented in the Appendix A (Tables 5 and 6, respectively). Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for the year 2030 are based on Gerlach et al. [23]. ...
... Efficiencies and energy to power ratio of storage technologies.Technology Efficiency [%] Energy/Power Ratio [h] Self-Discharge [%/h]Table 3. Efficiency assumptions for energy system components for the 2020 and 2030 reference years.Table 4. Efficiency assumptions for HVDC transmission[23]. ...
Conference Paper
The existing fossil fuel based power sector has to be transformed towards carbon neutrality in close future to limit global warming to 2ºC. The 100% renewable energy (RE) based system will be discussed in the paper. Such a system can be built using already existing energy generation, storage and transmission technologies. A regional integration of Europe, Eurasia and MENA energy systems will facilitate access to lower cost energy sources in neighboring regions, provide additional flexibility in the system and decrease the need in energy storage and increase the system stability because of more distributed generation. Additional demand from synthetic gas generation will additionally decrease the energy storage demand, additional flexibility enables the system to use lower cost energy sources and the primary energy generation cost decreases. Finally, such an integration can provide a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with total LCOE of about 50 €/MWh for the year 2030 cost assumptions. Even for a much higher energy demand in the system the total LCOE will be around 42 €/MWh – lower than coal-CCS or new nuclear options.
... Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set to 7% for all scenarios, but for residential PV prosumers WACC is set to 4%. The electricity prices were taken from Gerlach et al., [24] for residential, commercial and industrial consumers and calculated according to the assumptions from Werner et al. [25] for the year 2030. ...
Conference Paper
Energy is a key driver for social and economic change. Many countries trying to develop economically and socially and many developed countries trying to maintain their economic growth will create a huge demand for energy in the future. The growth in energy production will put our climate at risk, without change in the existing fossil fuel based energy system. In this paper, 100% renewable energy based system is discussed for East Asia, integrating the two large regions of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. Regional integration of the two regions does not provide significant benefit to the energy system in terms of cost reduction. However, reduction of 0.4-0.7% in terms of total annual cost of the system can be achieved for East Asia, mainly realised in optimising the bordering regions of South China and Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The idea of Australia being an electricity source for Asia, does not pay off due to the long distances and local storage of the generated electricity in the regions is more cost competitive. However, such an integration provides a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with the cost of electricity between 53-66 €/MWh for the year 2030 with the assumptions used in this study. The described energy system will be very cost competitive to the widely discussed nuclear and fossil carbon-capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
... For European countries a 100 €/ton gate fee for the waste incineration is assumed, for Eurasia a 50 €/ton gate fee. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for the year 2030 are based on Gerlach et al. [25]. ...
Conference Paper
Growing understanding of the viability of the energy system transformation towards carbon neutrality emerges the concerns about the possibility to cover the European energy demand only with renewable energy sources. Huge and growing electricity demand, high population density and limited societal allowance of wind energy in some regions of Europe makes this transformation more challenging. Some of the European energy demand could be covered with wind generated electricity imported from other regions, such as Northwest Russia, a region with good wind conditions and much smaller population density. However, results of modelling show that local wind resources are sufficient to cover the local electricity demand. Electricity cost in Northwest Russia is low, but due to high transmission costs, imported electricity is in most cases more expensive than local wind generation. Finally, there is no need for such imports. Only in case of lower societal allowance of onshore wind, or much higher electricity demand for heating, transportation and non-energetic industrial demand sectors there may be need for Western and Central Europe in wind energy supply from Northwest Russia.
... Simulation scenarios assume that up to 20% of commercial, residential and industrial consumers can install their own power generation capacities based on PV generation and Li-Ion batteries to reach minimal cost of annual power consumption. Electricity prices for residential (250 €/MWh), commercial (220 €/MWh) and industrial (190 €/MWh) consumers for the year 2030 are taken from [16]. As the electricity price is on a country basis, it is assumed that the sub-regions' electricity prices have the same value. ...
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In this study, a 100% renewable energy (RE) system for Brazil in 2030 was simulated using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, mix of capacities, operation modes and least cost energy supply were calculated and the role of storage technologies was analysed. The RE generated was not only able to fulfil the electricity demand of the power sector but also able to cover the 25% increase in total electricity demand due to water desalination and synthesis of natural gas for industrial use. The results for the power sector show that the total installed capacity is formed of 165 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV), 85 GW of hydro dams, 12 GW of hydro run-of-river, 8 GW of biogas, 12 GW of biomass and 8 GW of wind power. For solar PV and wind electricity storage, 243 GWhel of battery capacity is needed. According to the simulations the existing hydro dams will function similarly to batteries, being an essential electricity storage. 1 GWh of pumped hydro storage, 23 GWh of adiabatic compressed air storage and 1 GWh of heat storage are used as well. The small storage capacities can be explained by a high availability of RE sources with low seasonal variability and an existing electricity sector mainly based on hydro dams. Therefore, only 0.05 GW of PtG technologies are needed for seasonal storage in the electricity sector. When water desalination and industrial gas sectors’ electricity demand are integrated to the power sector, a reduction of 11% in both total cost and electric energy generation was achieved. The total system levelized cost of electricity decreased from 61 €/MWh to 53 €/MWh for the sector integration.
... Costs for biomass are calculated using data from IEA [26] and IPCC [27]. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for the year 2030 are based on Gerlach et al. [28]. ...
Conference Paper
Need to transform the energy system towards 100% renewable generation is well understood and such a transformation has already started. However, this transformation will be full of challenges and there will be no standard solution for energy supply, every regional energy system will be specific, because of local specific climatic and geographical conditions and consumption patterns. Based on the two major energy sources all regions can be divided into two categories: PV and Wind energy based regions. Moreover, local conditions will not only influence the optimal generation mix, but also optimal storage capacities choice. In this work we observe a strong coupling between PV and short-term storage utilisation in all major regions in the world: in the PV generation based energy systems short-term storage utilisation is much higher than in wind-based systems. Finally, PV-based energy systems demand a significant capacity for short-term storage, the more the more PV generation takes place locally.
... A full list of financial and technical assumptions can be found at [14]. Electricity prices for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors were derived by the same method as [17] and extended to 2050. For all scenarios, weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7%. ...
Presentation
Full-text available
Presentation on the occasion of the Sustainable Energy Forum and Exhibition (SEF-2016), Kiev, October 11, 2016.
... Electricity prices (2015) for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from various state tariff annual reports. The electricity prices till 2050 were calculated according to the assumptions from Gerlach et al. [20]. The electricity prices for all the sub-regions in India are provided in the Supplementary Material ( Table 3). ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The initiatives taken by India to tap its renewable energy (RE) potential have been extraordinary in recent years. However, large scale deployment of renewables requires various storage solutions to balance intermittency. In this work, a 100% RE transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies used in the model that provide flexibility to the system and balance the demand are batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and power-togas technology. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. The model optimizes the least cost mix of RE power plants and storage technologies installed to achieve a fully RE based power system by 2050 considering the base year's (2015) installed power plant capacities, their lifetimes and total electricity demand. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 57 €/MWhe to 42 €/MWhe in 2050 in a country-wide scenario. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The combination of solar PV and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2 – 4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
... A full list of financial and technical assumptions can be found at [14]. Electricity prices for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors were derived by the same method as [17] and extended to 2050. For all scenarios, weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7%. ...
Conference Paper
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A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Modelling of the power system proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities as well as their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand in order to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 94 €/MWhe to 54 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies. Several solutions are identified which can enable the transition towards the long-term sustainability of the Ukraine energy system.
... Prices of electricity for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are applied in order to derive benefits due to the self-consumption of solar energy. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial prosumers for Australia, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are taken from Gerlach et al. [57]. The electricity price in Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste are assumed to be similar to Indonesia. ...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, a cost optimal 100% renewable energy based system is obtained for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim region for the year 2030 on an hourly resolution for the whole year. For the optimization, the region was divided into 15 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelized cost of electricity showed a decrease from 66.7 €/MWh in a decentralized scenario to 63.5 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An integrated scenario was simulated to show the benefit of integrating additional demand of industrial gas and desalinated water which provided the system the required flexibility and increased the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. This was reflected in the decrease of system cost by 9.5% and the total electricity generation by 5.1%. According to the results, grid integration on a larger scale decreases the total system cost and levelized cost of electricity by reducing the need for storage technologies due to seasonal variations in weather and demand profiles. The intermittency of renewable technologies can be effectively stabilized to satisfy hourly demand at a low cost level. A 100% renewable energy based system could be a reality economically and technically in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than the nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
... The weighted average of the electricity tariff is taken into account for residential consumers, and for the two other consumers the electricity tariff of intermediate load is used. According to Gerlach et al. (2014), the current electricity prices are extrapolated in order to calculate electricity prices for the year 2030. The prices are assumed to increase in the same manner as in the last years by 5, 3 and 1% per year for electricity price levels of 0-150 €/ MWh, 150-300 €/MWh and more than 300 €/MWh, respectively. ...
Article
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a countrywide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the countrywide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.
... The technical assumptions of power to energy ratios for storage technologies, efficiency numbers for generation and storage technologies, and power losses in HVDC power lines and converters are provided in the Supplementary material (Tables II, III, and IV, respectively). The electricity prices for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers in most of the Sub-Saharan Africa countries for the year 2030 are obtained from Gerlach et al. [36] and aggregated based on population weighted estimates as presented in the Supplementary material (Table V). Prosumers will use PV to supply a portion of their electricity needs. ...
Conference Paper
This paper determines a least cost electricity solution for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The power system discussed in this study is hourly resolved and based on 100% Renewable Energy (RE) technologies. Sub-Saharan Africa was subdivided into 16 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered according to the setup in high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid. One integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas production were also analysed. This study uncovers that RE is sufficient to cover 866.4 TWh estimated electricity demand for 2030 and additional electricity needed to fulfil 319 million m 3 of water desalination and 268 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar PV and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) decreases from 57.8 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 54.7 €/MWh for a more centralized grid scenario. For the integrated scenario, including water desalination and synthetic natural gas demand, the levelised cost of gas and the levelised cost of water are 113.7 €/MWhLHV and 1.39 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 6% in total cost and 19% in electricity generation was realized as a result of integrating desalination and power-togas sectors into the system.
... From the perspective of consumers and prosumers, module prices have been higher in Finland than in other countries due to sales channel inefficiencies and very low market volumes in Finland, but module prices are falling continuously and will be competitive on their own in the future in a wider range of market segments [18,21,48,49]. Installation costs have been relatively high in Finland due to expensive labour and comparably less experienced installers in Finland. ...
Article
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE) in Finland, not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar photovoltaics (PV) can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-toGas technology. In an EnergyPLAN simulation of the Finnish energy system for 2050, approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without confidence in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin. The results of this study provides insights into how higher capacities of solar PV can be effectively promoted and managed at high latitudes, both north and south.
... The electricity price for a country is assumed to be applicable for all the regions within the same country. The current electricity prices are extrapolated to the year 2030 according to Gerlach et al. [53]. The regional grid electricity costs are provided in the Supplementary Materials (Table S5). ...
Article
In this study power generation and demand are matched through a least-cost mix of renewable energy (RE) resources and storage technologies for North America by 2030. The study is performed using an hourly resolved model based on a linear optimization algorithm. The geographical, technical and economic potentials of different forms of RE resources enable the option of building a super grid between different North American regions. North America (including the U.S., Canada and Mexico in this paper), is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. Four scenarios have been evaluated: region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and an integrated scenario. The levelised cost of electricity is found to be quite attractive in such a system, with the range from 63 €/MWh el in a decentralized case and 42 €/MWh el in a more centralized and integrated scenario. Electrical grid interconnections significantly reduce the storage requirement and overall cost of the energy system. Among all RE resources, wind and solar PV are found to be the least-cost options and hence the main contributors to fossil fuel substitution. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option at a modest cost. However, such a tremendous transition will not be possible in a short time if policy-makers, energy investors and other relevant organizations do not support the proposed system.
... Electricity prices (2015) for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from various state tariff annual reports. The electricity prices till 2050 were calculated according to the assumptions from Gerlach et al. [20]. The electricity prices for all the sub-regions in India are provided in the Supplementary Material (Table 3). ...
Article
The initiatives taken by India to tap its renewable energy (RE) potential have been extraordinary in recent years. However, large scale deployment of renewables requires various storage solutions to balance intermittency. In this work, a 100% RE transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies used in the model that provide flexibility to the system and balance the demand are batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and power-togas technology. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. The model optimizes the least cost mix of RE power plants and storage technologies installed to achieve a fully RE based power system by 2050 considering the base year's (2015) installed power plant capacities, their lifetimes and total electricity demand. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 58 €/MWhe to 52 €/MWhe in 2050 in a country-wide scenario. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050 the cost would be 42 €/MWhe, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The combination of solar PV and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2 – 4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
... However, for the sub-regions electricity prices are the weighted average of a subregion. Then, electricity prices are extrapolated in order to calculate electricity prices for the year 2030 using the approach of Gerlach et al. [60]. The excess electricity generation, which cannot be self-consumed by the solar PV prosumers, is assumed to be fed into the grid for a transfer selling price of 2 €cents/kWh. ...
Conference Paper
Renewable energy (RE) has been already viewed as a minor contributor in the final energy mix of North America due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent dramatic cost reductions and new initiatives using RE, particularly solar PV and wind energy, as a main energy source for the future energy mix of the world pave the way for enabling this source of energy to become cost competitive and beneficial in comparison to fossil fuels. Other alternatives such as nuclear energy and coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) cannot play an important role in the future of energy system, mainly due to safety and economic constraints for these technologies. Phasing out nuclear and fossil fuels is still under discussion, however the 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions agreed at COP21 in Paris clearly guides the pathway towards sustainability. Consequently, RE would be the only trustable energy source towards a clean and sustainable world. In this study, an hourly resolved model has been developed based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constraints with a bright perspective of RE power generation and demand for North America. The geographical, technical and economic potential of different types of RE resources in North America, including wind energy, solar PV, hydro, geothermal and biomass energy sources enable the option to build a Super Grid connection between different North American regions' energy resources to achieve synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The North American region, including the US, Canada and Mexico in this paper, is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. These sub-regions are interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for North America in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Four scenarios have been evaluated according to different HVDC transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 53 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 42 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by around 6.6% in the energy system compared to the non-integrated sectors due to higher system efficiency enabled by more flexibility. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
... Therefore, Turkey is one of the first grid-parity market segments with Germany, Japan, Mexico and the United Kingdom. Turkey reached residential grid-parity in 2016, commercial grid-parity in 2015 and industrial grid-parity in 2014 (Gerlach et al., 2014). ...
Article
an hourly resolved model. Turkey is structured into seven geographical regions and all assumptions and data are collected and applied separately for the regions. The energy transition is simulated for two scenarios: a power sector scenario and power sector plus desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand (integrated) scenario. Turkey has an enormous solar energy potential, which leads to an installed solar PV capacity of 287 GW (71% of total installed capacity) in the power scenario and 387 GW (73% of total installed capacity) in the integrated scenario in 2050. Solar PV and other installed RE systems are balanced by storage systems to increase the flexibility of the system. Levelised cost of electricity increased slightly in the power scenario, from a fossil fuel based system with 63 €/MWhel in 2015 to a fully RE-based system with 65.4 €/MWhel in 2050. The capacity mix in the power scenario entirely built for the assumptions of the year 2050 led to a cost of 51 €/MWhel, which can also be expected in the periods beyond 2050. In the integrated scenario, however, the costs decreased from 60.3 €/MWhel to 57.3 €/MWhel, mainly due to the benefit of sector coupling. A 100% RE system reduces energy import dependency and carbon emissions, while reducing the cost of energy supply.
... For the residential prosumers and individual heating, the WACC was set to 4%. Electricity prices for three different prosumer categories were calculated from [74] for 2015 and cost development until 2050 was projected according to the methods described in [75]. Costs for power, heat, transport and desalination are provided in Tables S25-S28, Supporting Information and Figures S28-S38, Supporting Information). ...
Article
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Pakistan is currently undertaking a substantial expansion of electricity generation capacity to provide electricity for all its end-users and to satisfy a fast-growing economy. Adoption of low-cost, abundant and clean renewable energy will not only fulfil its growing electricity , heat, transportation and desalinated water demand but also help achieve the goals set under the Paris Agreement. A technology-rich energy system model applied in hourly resolution has been used for investigating the transition in 5-year periods until 2050. This study demonstrates that a 100% renewable energy system across the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors is not only technically feasible but also economically viable. Solar pho-tovoltaics emerges as a key technology to generate electricity and contribute a share of 92% to the total primary energy demand across all sectors by 2050. The levelised cost of energy for a 100% renewable energy system is calculated as 56.1 €/MWh in 2050, lower than 70 €/MWh for the current fossil fuel-based system. A key feature of Pakistan's future energy system is the huge increase in demand across all energy sectors, particularly for desalinated water, which is almost 19% of the final energy demand. This share of energy for desalination is among the highest in the world. Direct and indirect electrification across all demand sectors increases the efficiency of the future energy system. Moreover, GHG emissions from all the sectors will drop to zero by 2050 in a fully sustainable energy scenario.
... Financial assumptions are made in five-year time steps for all energy system components, a full list of which can be found in the Supplementary Materials. Using the same method as [14], electricity prices were calculated and extended to 2050 for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7% for all scenarios. ...
Article
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A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... The residential, commercial and industrial consumers electricity prices were estimated till 2050 based on methods described in Refs. [51,52]. Electricity prices are provided in the Supplementary Material (Table S5). ...
Article
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This article explores the transition to renewable energy for all purposes in developing countries. Ethiopia is chosen as a case study and is an exemplary of developing countries with comparable climatic and socioeconomic conditions. The techno-economic analysis of the transition is performed with the LUT Energy System Transition model, while the socio-economic aspects are examined in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction, improved energy services and job creation. Six scenarios were developed, which examine various policy constraints, such as greenhouse gas emission cost. The Best Policy Scenarios cost less than the Current Policy Scenarios and generate more job. The results of this research show that it is least costing, least greenhouse gas emitting and most job-rich to gradually transition Ethiopia’s energy system into one that is dominated by solar PV, complemented by wind energy and hydropower. The modelling outcome reveals that it is not only technically and economically possible to defossilise the Ethiopian energy system, but it is the least cost option with greatest societal welfare. This is a first of its kind study for the Ethiopian energy system from a long-term perspective.
... On the other hand, the consumer demand for environmentally friendly products simultaneously rises [5] motivating manufacturing companies to strive for sustainable production. Additionally, the progressive development of decentralized, renewable generation technologies is leading to grid parity [6]. Governmental subsidies further support investments in renewable energy technologies and decentralized energy generation coupled with self-consumption. ...
Article
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The expansion of renewable energies and the concomitant compensatory measures, such as the expansion of the electricity grid, the installation of energy storage facilities, or the flexibilization of demand, lead to a more elaborated energy supply system. Furthermore, the technological development of small power plants has further progressed, and many novel technologies have achieved grid parity. For manufacturing companies, the integration of renewable generation plants at their own site therefore represents a promising strategy for being both technically independent of the electricity grid and autonomous of price policy decisions and volatile market prices. This paper outlines the existing decentralized, renewable power generation technologies, their energetic modeling, and a hybrid optimization methodology for their dimensioning that uses mixed integer linear programming (MILP) and linear programming (LP) problem formulation. Finally, the introduced dimensioning method is applied to an exemplary manufacturing company that is assumed to be in the central part of Germany and located in the metalworking sector. The company has an electricity demand of approximately 20,000 MWh/a. The optimization results in a maximum expansion of PV and the use of CHP to cover the base load leading to a promising energy cost reduction of almost 20%.
... The fuel prices for the fossil and nuclear fuels and GHG emission costs are given in the SM Table S10. The electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial categories for 2015 are assumed from Gerlach et al. [103] and price projection until 2050 were calculated according to the methodology described in Breyer and Gerlach [104]. ...
Article
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Transition towards sustainable energy systems is of utmost importance to avert global consequences of climate change. Within the framework of the Paris Agreement and Marrakech Communique, this study analyses an energy transition pathway utilising renewable resources for the Philippines. The transition study is performed from 2015 to 2050 on a high temporal and spatial resolution data, using a linear optimisation tool. From the results of this study, technically, a 100% fossil free energy system in 2050 is possible, with a cost structure comparable to an energy system in 2015, while having zero greenhouse gas emissions. Solar PV as a generation and batteries a as storage technology form the backbone of the energy system during the transition. Direct and indirect electrification across all sectors would result in an efficiency gain of more than 50% in 2050, while keeping the total annual investment within 20-55 b€. Heat pumps, electrical heating, and solar thermal technologies would supply heat, whereas, direct electricity and synthetic fuels would fuel the energy needs of the transport sector. The results indicate that, indigenous renewable resources in the Philippines could power the demand from all energy sectors, thereby, bringing various socioeconomic benefits.
... [51]. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers were derived for every region according to Gerlach et al. [52], and extended to 2050 according to Breyer et al. [53]. Excess electricity generated by prosumers is fed into the national grid and is assumed to be sold for a transfer price of 0.02 €/kWh. ...
Article
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Climate change threats and the necessity to achieve global Sustainable Development Goals demand unprecedented economic and social shifts around the world, including a fundamental transformation of the global energy system. An energy transition is underway in most regions, predominantly in the power sector. This research highlights the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% renewable energy systems including the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors. It presents a technology-rich, multi-sectoral, multi-regional and cost-optimal global energy transition pathway for 145 regional energy systems sectionalised into nine major regions of the world. This 1.5°C target compatible scenario with rapid direct and indirect electrification via Power-to-X processes and massive defossilisation indicates substantial benefits: 50% energy savings, universal access to fresh water and low-cost energy supply. It also provides an energy transition pathway that could lead from the current fossil-based system to an affordable, efficient, sustainable and secure energy future for the world.
... For all scenarios, weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set to 7%, but for residential PV prosumers WACC is set to 4% due to lower expectation of financial returns. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers were derived according to Gerlach et al. [66], and extended to 2050 according to Breyer et al. [67], and can be found in the Appendix A (Table A3). Excess electricity generated by prosumers is fed into the national grid and is assumed to be sold for a transfer price of 0.02 €/kWh. ...
Article
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Transition towards long-term sustainable energy systems is one of the biggest challenges faced by the global society. By 2050, not only greenhouse gas emissions have to be eliminated in all energy sectors: power, heat, transport and industry but also these sectors should be closely coupled allowing maximum synergy effects and efficiency. A tool allowing modelling of complex energy system transition for power, heat, transport and industry sectors, responsible for over 75% of the CO2eq emissions, in full hourly resolution, is presented in this research and tested for the case of Kazakhstan. The results show that transition towards a 100% sustainable and renewable energy based system by 2050 is possible even for the case of severe climate conditions and an energy intensive industry, observed in Kazakhstan. The power sector becomes backbone of the entire energy system, due to more intense electrification induced sector coupling. The results show that electrification and integration of sectors enables additional flexibility, leading to more efficient systems and lower energy supply cost, even though integration effect varies from sector to sector. The levelised cost of electricity can be reduced from 62 €/MWh in 2015 to 46 €/MWh in 2050 in a fully integrated system, while the cost of heat stays on a comparable level within the range of 30–35 €/MWh, leading to an energy system cost on a level of 40–45 €/MWh. Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply shrinks CO2eq emissions from these sectors to zero in 2050 with 90% of the reduction achieved by 2040.
... A complete list of financial and technical assumptions can be found in the Supplementary Materials. For the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, consumer electricity prices were calculated using the same method as (Gerlach, Breyer, & Werner, 2014) and extended to 2050. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7%. ...
Article
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A cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100 % renewable energy was simulated for Finland. This transition was consistent with EU and international targets to achieve sstainability, while maintaining national competitiveness. Finland was divided into 7 regions that account for resource distribution and demand differences at high spatial and hourly time resolutions. Results indicate that levelised cost of electricity can decrease from 61 €/MWh in 2015 to 53 €/MWh in 2050 and that levelised cost of heat can decrease from 29 €/MWh to 20 €/MWh based on the assumptions used in this study. Transport sector costs decrease for most vehicle classes through electrification but increase marginally for classes that use bioenergy-based or sustainable synthetic fuels. Costs decrease through the adoption of flexible generation by several renewable energy technologies, intra-regional interconnections, and the use of low-cost energy storage solutions. Results show less need for combined heat and power plants as the electrification increases through sector integration. Individuals and groups can become prosumers of energy, motivated by a desire to contribute to climate action and making choices for lower cost, sustainable energy. Collectively, society can increase a sense of agency through lower exposure to risks. A 100 % renewable energy system can be a resilient, low cost and low risk option for the future.
... Furthermore, the German energy market in general bears a larger cost burden as compared to other countries within the European Union. In contrast, the electricity generation costs of decentralized technologies drop resulting in higher market shares of grid parity offering [11]. Further reasons for the company's transition to renewable energy are arising concerning the current discussion about CO2 taxation. ...
Article
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Electricity price changes and regulatory operation fees may be non-transparent for manufacturing companies. Furthermore, due to the increasing amounts of renewable energies, grid stability and high grid quality will be less reliable in the future. Taking this into account, self-sufficiency of power supply becomes cost-efficient when being well-adapted to their specific requirements. Therefore, a concept for integration of renewable, decentral energy supply into modern production systems is described. Based on load profiles and further properties of the production system adaptable generation technologies are evaluated. Finally, demand response strategies for energy converters, distributors and storages are applied to minimize the residual power.
... For all scenarios, weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set to 7%, but for residential PV prosumers WACC is set to 4% due to lower financial return requirements. Electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial consumers were derived according to [51], and extended to 2050, and can be found in the Appendix A (Table A3). Excess electricity generated by prosumers is fed into the national grid and is assumed to be sold for a transfer price of 0.02 €/kWh. ...
Article
Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply is a challenging aim for many regions in the world. Even in regions with excellent availability of wind and solar resources, such factors as limited availability of flexible renewable energy resources, low flexibility of demand, and high seasonality of energy supply and demand can impede the transition. All these factors can be found for the case of Kazakhstan, a mostly steppe country with harsh continental climate conditions and an energy intensive economy dominated by fossil fuels. Results of the simulation using the LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool show that even under these conditions, the power and heat supply system of Kazakhstan can transition towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. A renewable-based electricity only system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, with levelised cost of electricity of 54 €/MWh in 2050. The heat system transition requires installation of substantial storage capacities to compensate for seasonal heat demand variations. Electrical heating will become the main source of heat for both district and individual heating sectors with heat cost of about 45 €/MWh and electricity cost of around 56 €/MWh for integrated sectors in 2050. According to these results, transition towards a 100% renewable power and heat supply system is technically feasible and economically viable even in countries with harsh climatic conditions.
... A full list of financial and technical assumptions can be found in the Supplementary Material. For the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, electricity prices were calculated using the same method as [22] and extended to 2050. For all scenarios, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7%. ...
Article
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The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model that defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from inter-regional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, inter-regional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... (31)). PV prosumer optimization is done prior to the residual energy system optimization; the input and the methodology follow (Breyer and Gerlach, 2013;Gerlach et al., 2014). A power balance must be met for every sub-region at every hour (Eq. ...
Article
The two main options on the market for utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) installations are fixed-tilted and single-axis tracking systems with a horizontal north-south-orientated axis. However, only a few global energy system studies consider the latter. The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of single-axis tracking PV on energy scenarios. For this purpose, two scenarios with and without the single-axis tracking option are studied for 100% renewable energy (RE) systems in 2030. To find the optimum energy mix for both scenarios, the total annual cost computed by the LUT Energy System model is minimized. The satellite-based input global data have a temporal resolution of one hour and a spatial resolution of 0.45° × 0.45°. Furthermore, a model to estimate the annual yield of single-axis tracking PV is proposed and validated by using the PVsyst software. The simulation results are found to be within a 4% margin to the respective simulation results of PVsyst. Both scenarios demonstrate that a 100% RE system is possible at a low cost, where PV and wind power are the dominating generation technologies. Nevertheless, the results also show a significant effect of single-axis tracking PV. The global generation share of PV increases from 47% to 59%, and 20% of the total electricity is generated by single-axis tracking PV, while the share of wind energy decreases from 31% to 21%. Additionally, curtailment, power transmission requirements, storage demand, and the total cost decrease. The global average levelized cost of electricity decreases by 6% from 54.8 to 51.4 €/MWh. The findings indicate that energy system modeling should include single-axis tracking.
... A full list of financial and technical assumptions can be found at [14]. Electricity prices for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors were derived by the same method as [17] and extended to 2050. For all scenarios, weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7%. ...
Article
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A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 82 €/MWhe to 60 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050, the cost would be 54 €/MWhe, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies.
... SSA end-user grid electricity costs for year 2030. Assumptions for most of the countries were taken fromGerlach et al. (2014), as for the missing countries, the cost are population weighted based on close boundary proximity. ...
... The technical assumptions regarding energy-to-power ratios for storage technologies, efficiency numbers for generation, and power losses in HDVC power lines and converters are presented for the years 2030 and 2040 in the Supplementary Material (Tables S4-S6). Electricity prices for commercial, residential and industrial consumers for all countries in the region for the years 2030 and 2040 are derived according to Gerlach et al. [69]. Prices are presented in the Supplementary Material (Table S7). ...
Article
The idea of damming the Congo River has persisted for decades. The Grand Inga project, of up to 42 GW power generation capacity, can only be justified as part of a regional energy master plan for Africa, to bridge the energy gap on the continent. Proponents of very large dams have often exaggerated potential multiple benefits of a mega dam, marginalise environmental concerns and neglect the true risk of such projects, in particular for the fragile economies of developing countries. Studies have reported the financial risks, cost overruns and schedule spills associated with very large dams. In addition, most of the dams in the region are poorly managed. Therefore, the type and scale of Grand Inga is not the solution for millions of not yet electrified people in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this research, scenarios are defined based on announced costs and expected costs. Cost escalations in the range from 5% to 100% for the Inga project in 2030 and 2040 are considered, as average cost overruns are typically at about 70% or higher for similar mega-dams. It was found that when the cost overrun for the Grand Inga project exceeds 35% and −5% for 2030 and 2040 assumptions, respectively, the project becomes economically non-beneficial. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa can mainly be powered by solar photovoltaics to cover the electricity demand and complemented by wind energy, supported by batteries. Hydropower and biomass-based electricity can serve as complementary resources. The grid frequency stability of the power system is analysed and discussed in the paper. Benefits of the Inga hydropower project have to be increasingly questioned, in particular due to the fast cost decline of solar photovoltaics and batteries.
... A full list of financial and technical assumptions can be found in the Supplementary Material. For the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, electricity prices were calculated using the same method as [22] and extended to 2050. For all scenarios, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7%. ...
Conference Paper
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model which defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from interregional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, interregional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... Financial assumptions are made in five-year time steps for all energy system components, a full list of which can be found in the Supplementary Materials. Using the same method as [14], electricity prices were calculated and extended to 2050 for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set at 7% for all scenarios. ...
Conference Paper
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... The authors assume that a 7% real WACC is possible by the year 2050 in Pakistan. The electricity prices for 2015 for the three prosumer categories are assumed from Gerlach et al. [52] and future prices till 2050 were calculated according to the methodology described in Breyer and Gerlach [53]. The electricity prices for Pakistan are provided in the Supplementary Material (Table 1). ...
Article
The main aim of this study is to present an energy transition roadmap for Pakistan in which the total energy demand by 2050 is met by electricity generated via renewable sources, in particular, solar photovoltaic. Efforts have been made to assess the energy and cost required for the transition towards a sustainable energy supply covering the demand for power, desalination and industrial gas sectors. Hourly resolved model was used and optimization was carried out for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) on the basis of assumed costs and technological status till 2050 for all energy technologies involved. Solar PV dominates the installed technologies and contributes 92.7% and 96.6% in power and integrated scenarios. Seawater desalination sector dominates the integrated scenario and clean water demand is found to be 2.8·10¹¹ by 2050. The levelised cost of electricity declines from 106.6 €/MWh in 2015 to 46.2 €/MWh in 2050 in power scenario. In country-wide scenario, gas storage rules from 2040 to 2050 in terms of total storage capacities while battery storage is prominent in terms of storage output. The results indicates the 100% renewable system as cost competitive and least cost option for Pakistan's future energy transition.
... Electricity prices (2015) for residential, commercial and industrial consumers for all the countries are taken from various state tariff annual reports. The electricity prices till 2050 were calculated according to the assumptions from Gerlach et al. [26] and Breyer and Gerlach [27]. The electricity prices for all the sub-regions in India are provided in the Supplementary Material (Table 3). ...
Article
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE) transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage and power-to-gas technology are used in the modelling to provide flexibility to the system and balance demand. The optimisation for each time period (transition is modeled in 5 year steps) is carried out on an assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Results indicate that a 100% renewable based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 58 €/MWhe to 52 €/MWhe in 2050 in the power scenario. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The synchronised discharging of batteries in the night time and charging of power-to-gas in the early summer and summer months reduces curtailment on the following day, and thus is a part of a least cost solution. The combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2–4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. During the monsoon period, complementarity of storage technologies and the transmission grid help to achieve uninterrupted power supply. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and a least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
Article
Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-togas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination and 640 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the leve-lized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWh LHV and 0.91 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
Technical Report
Full-text available
Technical Report "Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector", published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017 A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is feasible at every hour throughout the year and more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will. Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050 . The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015. Solar PV and battery storage drive most of the 100% renewable electricity supply due to a significant decline in costs during the transition. Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally. Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. Solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050. Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly short-term (diurnal) storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage. 100% renewables bring GHG emissions in the electricity sector down to zero, drastically reduce total losses in power generation and create 36 million jobs by 2050. Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines. The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system. Operation and maintenance jobs increase from 20% of the total direct energy jobs in 2015 to 48% of the total jobs in 2050 that implies more stable employment chances and economic growth globally. The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.
Article
Full-text available
Sub-Saharan Africa is a region with a large population living without electricity. This study investigates the grid balancing role of bioenergy in a sub-Saharan Africa’s fully renewable power sector to address the energy poverty challenge in the region, using Ghana as a case country. Two methods are employed: the bioenergy estimation method, for deriving Ghana’s technical bioenergy potential, and the LUT model, for the power sector transition modelling. The Ghanaian bioenergy potential of 48.3 TWh is applied on the power sector using the LUT model to develop six alternative scenarios, emphasising on the role of bioenergy, greenhouse gas emissions costs, and climate change mitigation policies. The results of the Best Policy Scenario reveal that with an electrical efficiency of 37.2%, 18 TWh of electricity, which is 16.9% of Ghana’s electricity demand by 2050, could be produced from bioenergy for grid balancing. Also, the levelised cost of electricity declines from 48.7 €/MW in 2015 to 36.9 – 46.6 €/MWh in 2050. Whereas the cost of electricity increases to 76.4 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario without greenhouse gas emissions costs. The results show the viability of a relatively cheap and bioenergy balanced sustainable renewable power system for the sub-Saharan African region.
Article
The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
Thesis
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There are undeniable signs from all over the world demonstrating that climate change is already upon us. Numerous scientific studies have warned of dire consequences should humankind fail to keep average global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5°C. Drastic measures to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from all economic activities across the world are essential. Major emphasis has been on the energy sector, which contributes the bulk of GHG emissions. Inevitably, energy scenarios describing future transition pathways towards low, and zero emissions energy systems are commonly proposed as mitigation strategies. However, there is growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood and analysed not only from technical and economical perspectives but also from a social perspective. This research explores the broader ramifications of a global energy transition from various dimensions: costs and externalities of energy production, democratisation of future energy systems and the role of prosumers, employment creation during energy transitions at the global, regional and national levels and the effects of air pollution during energy transitions across the world. This research builds on fundamental techno-economic principles of energy systems and relies firmly on a cost driven rationale for determining cost optimal energy system transition pathways. Techno-economic analyses of energy transitions around the world are executed with the LUT Energy System Transition Model, while the corresponding socioeconomic aspects are expressed in terms of levelised cost of electricity, cost effective development of prosumers, job creation, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions along with air pollution. Findings during the course of this original research involved novel assessments of the levelised cost of electricity encompassing externalities across G20 countries, cost optimal prosumer modelling across the world, estimates of job creation potential of various renewables, storage and power-to-X technologies including the production of green hydrogen and e-fuels during global, regional and national energy transitions. The novel research methods and insights are published in several articles and presented in this thesis, which highlight robust socioeconomic benefits of transitioning the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system towards renewables complemented by storage and flexible power-to-X solutions, resulting in near zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These research findings and insights have significant relevance to stakeholders across the energy landscape and present a compelling case for the rapid transformation of energy systems across the world. However, the research does have limitations and is based on energy transition pathways that are inherent with uncertainties and some socioeconomic challenges. Nonetheless, actions to enhance and accelerate the ongoing energy transition across the world must be prioritised, if not for technical feasibility or economic viability, but for the social wellbeing of human society and future generations.
Conference Paper
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Research and Development (R&D) is a major driving force for constant cost reduction in photovoltaics (PV) and consequently an enabler for a fast diffusion of PV. To prove this, long-term PV market diffusion phases and updated learning curve data is presented. Energy R&D of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is discussed in respect to renewable energy sources (RES) in general and PV in particular. For estimating current and global historic cumulated PV R&D investments a bottom-up analysis of more than 100 PV companies and a top-down analysis based on international PV patents is presented. Current annual public and corporate PV R&D investments are estimated to be about 500 m€ and 3,000 – 6,000 m€, respectively. Global historic cumulated public and corporate PV R&D investment is estimated to be about 9 and 35 – 41 bn€, respectively. Annual growth rates of R&D investments of public listed companies focussed on PV are about 40%. This has and will generate ongoing evolutionary and fast market diffusion. Considering this, PV R&D investments seem to be a very inexpensive pathway for energy security compared to nuclear energy R&D and major public funded technological or energy related military projects.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Photovoltaic (PV) is one of the fastest growing electricity generation technologies in the world. Average annual growth rates of global PV-installations have reached around 45% for the last 15 years, which triggered a fast and ongoing reduction of production cost in PV industry. The presented work aims at consolidating historical price and cost information, deriving refined learning curves for PV modules and systems, and analysing the main factors of learning. For c-Si modules a valid learning rate of 17% is found based on a meta-analysis of various studies. In early years, even a learning rate of 30% is observed. As an example for thin-film PV, CdTe module cost reduce by 16% as the cumulated production output doubles. Interestingly, efficiency improvements contribute only in second order to the overall cost reduction for both technologies, emphasising the relevance of production excellence and economies of scale. On PV system level, a cost reduction of 14% per doubling of cumulated installed capacity is derived. Finally, a sensitivity analysis reveals that learning rate variations are only of minor influence on the overall global PV market potential.
Article
Full-text available
This manual is a guide for analyzing the economics of energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE) technologies and projects. It is intended: (1) to help analysts determine the appropriate approach or type of analysis and the appropriate level of detail, and (2) to assist EE analysts in completing consistent analyses using standard assumptions and bases, when appropriate. Included are analytical techniques that are commonly required for the economic analysis of EE technologies and projects. The manual consists of six sections: Introduction, Fundamentals, Selection Criteria Guide, Economic Measures, Special Considerations for Conservation and Renewable Energy Systems, and References. A glossary and eight appendices are also included. Each section has a brief introductory statement, a presentation of necessary formulae, a discussion, and when appropriate, examples and descriptions of data and data availability. The objective of an economic analysis is to provide the information needed to make a judgment or a decision. The most complete analysis of an investment in a technology or a project requires the analysis of each year of the life of the investment, taking into account relevant direct costs, indirect and overhead costs, taxes, and returns on investment, plus any externalities, such as environmental impacts, that are relevant to the decision to be made. However, it is important to consider the purpose and scope of a particular analysis at the outset because this will prescribe the course to follow. The perspective of the analysis is important, often dictating the approach to be used. Also, the ultimate use of the results of an analysis will influence the level of detail undertaken. The decision-making criteria of the potential investor must also be considered.
Article
The photo-voltaic (PV) power industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and associated with that growth has been a decline in costs. There are indications that PV has already reached cost-parity with power off the grid in some markets and projections that it will attain such grid parity in many more markets over the coming decade. Analysts have suggested that the growth in PV has come at an unnecessarily high price, with unnecessarily high subsidies. However, the factors influencing the cost of PV, and the subsidies required to sustain its construction, include more than just the strength of the sun. While differences in costs of such factors as initial capital spending, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning are hard to ascertain, it is possible to account for the cost of capital, on a country-by-country basis. In this paper, we therefore map the cost of solar PV globally, accounting for both the quality of the solar resource and the cost of capital in order to differentiate levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) from PV. Our results suggest that northern countries may not be an unwise location to subsidize PV construction, and further suggest that efforts to expand PV installation in developing countries may benefit greatly from policies designed to make low cost finance more widely available.
Conference Paper
The installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) is rising steadily. Most PV is installed in highly electrified countries as on-grid systems. Further, there are reams of small off-grid systems in rural areas of developing countries. Due to this, reliable installation rates for PV are available only for a small number of countries. For the end of 2013 EPIA reports 138,858 MWp of installed PV capacity, using data for 45 countries, whereas 2,098 MWp are not allocatable to specific countries. IEA-PVPS gives a number of 136,200 MWp installed by providing detailed data for 32 countries, 24 of which coming from official sources in IEA PVPS member countries. This paper gives an overview of installed PV for all countries in the world, being predicated based on the examination of publically accessible data. Furthermore, an analysis of the development of cumulative PV capacities in recent years is given. Resulting from this evaluation, PV installations are localized in 191 countries, representing 137,500 MWp.
Conference Paper
The benefits of hybridising two solar technologies are not clear at first sight. Combining the low cost electricity generation by photovoltaics (PV) with the cheap thermal energy storage option available to concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) plants is what makes this package interesting. In this work we simulate hybrid power plants over the course of one year using historical hourly weather data on the input side and synthetic load data on a national level on the output side. In addition to examining pure PV-CSP plants we also consider adding wind power and direct battery storage to the mix. The economics of such combinations are determined and compared. The results show that PV-CSP hybrids are a viable option to provide an output profile following national electricity demand. We also show that when allowing a wide range of power generation and storage technologies, at any given location many different combinations lead to levelised electricity costs not too far above the minimal possible costs for any renewable power source.
Conference Paper
The electricity demand in the Middle East North African (MENA) region is increasing quickly and is highly dependent on diminishing fossil fuel resources. The economics of photovoltaic (PV) power plants are very promising and have already started their full competitiveness to fossil fuel fired power plants. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of fossil fuel fired power plants can be reduced by hybridization with PV power plants. Even lower costs are achieved by including both PV and wind power plants. In the long-term, expanding a hybrid PV-Wind-Fossil power system by the renewable power methane storage technology might create a 100% renewable based power system. This long-term option might be of high relevance for the post fossil fuel age in the MENA region.
Conference Paper
Renewable based hybrid mini-grids have been proven to be a sustainable and cost-effective solution to electrify remote regions. Many case studies have been conducted globally for rural electrification and small islands. Even though single islands are understood quite well the big picture of the global island land-scape is missing. To target the existing potential for PV and wind power on small islands it is essential to understand the different conditions in different regions worldwide. Main influence on the potential has the local load profile, the diesel price for power generation, and solar and wind resources. This work uses these data as a base for simulating the techno-economic optimized renewable energy potential on each small island (1,000 to 100,000 inhabitants) worldwide to assess the local market potential for hybrid mini-grids. The assessment should help companies and organizations to identify the most attractive island region for their hybrid mini-grid solutions.
Book
Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV- Fossil power plants. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind- Renewable Power Methane combined cycle gas turbine power system. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for all member states of the European Union and the United States of America, respectively. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. In the EU and the US, first grid-parity events will occur in late 2009 or early 2010 in Italy and Hawaii, respectively. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the EU and the US, reaching an addressable market of about 90% and 65% of total electricity market, respectively. In parallel to grid-parity events, next milestones for PV industry will be diesel-parity and natural gas-parity. Reaching grid-parity will require new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits. PV technology is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Conference Paper
Annual available solar resource is dependent on global horizontal irradiation (GHI) and PV systems. Relevant tracking and non-tracking PV systems are presented based on Hay-Davis-Klucher-Reindl (HDKR) approach. Results of the analysis are shown for all PV systems and all regions in the world. Solar resources are weighted by global population distribution, regarded per country, continent and region and compared to area weighted, maximum and minimum irradiation per geographic entity. Global electricity weighted irradiation for fixed optimally tilted PV systems is about 1,690 kWh/m²/y, significantly less than global population and area weighted irradiation of about 1,850 and 1,780 kWh/m²/y, respectively.
Conference Paper
Tilt angles show decisive impact on fixed tilted PV power plant design. A comprehensive irradiation and cost optimizing model is presented based on Hay-Davis-Klucher-Reindl (HDKR) approach coupled with levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Results of the analysis are shown for all regions in the world. Trade-off between irradiation and cost optimization is found. Rule of thumb, that tilt angle should be respective latitude can be confirmed for most regions in the world, except those higher than 45°N or lower 45°S or of very special local climatic conditions. Nevertheless, overall impact of tilt angle on maximizing irradiation should not be overestimated.
Conference Paper
People in rural regions of various developing countries suffer on having no access to modern forms of energy, in particular electricity. This work is focussed on regions inhabited by these people and presents insights on the short financial amortization periods of solar home systems and photovoltaic pico systems. With amortization periods of about 6 to 18 months, pico systems represent a capitalized value of about 10 to 45 times the original capital expenditures at the point of full financial amortization. For a significantly higher electricity demand hybrid PV mini-grids might be an excellent solution for rural electrification. However the economics are still a challenge. Based on excellent economics of small PV applications the total global residential small PV market potential is estimated to about 8 GWp and 80 bn€. The total PV-based off-grid market potential for the not yet electrified people might be estimated to about 70 GW and roughly 750 bn€.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the LCOE analysis are shown for 223 countries/ islands and a total of 446 market segments all over the world. Grid-parity events have been calculated for 189 residential and 179 industrial market segments. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalise these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 95% of total global electricity market till 2025. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackles its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Conference Paper
Mehrere fundamentale Faktoren beschränken die Stabilität der weltweiten Elektrizitätsversorgung. Diese sind insbesondere die stetig zunehmende Nachfrage, sich erschöpfende fossile und nukleare Energieressourcen, Emissionen von sehr schädlichen Treibhausgasen, erhebliche Energieungerechtigkeit und ein global unausgeglichener ökologischer Fußabdruck. Photovoltaik (PV) Systeme werden hinsichtlich mehrerer Aspekte - speziell wirtschaftliche und technische - auf ihren ergänzenden und ersetzenden Energiebeitrag zum limitierten konventionellen Energiesystem untersucht. Um den optimalen Systemansatz für PV Kraftwerke abzuleiten werden mehrere solare Ressourcen, die an die jeweiligen PV Systeme angepasst sind, verglichen. Infolge der ökonomischen Bewertung der solaren Ressourcen werden zwei besonders wettbewerbsfähige PV Systeme identifiziert. Das Konzept der Erfahrungskurven wird als wesentliche Methode für wirtschaftliche Projektionen in den 2010er Jahren genutzt. Die Haupttreiber für Kostensenkungen bei PV Systemen sind die Lernrate der Technologie und die Wachstumsrate der Produktion. Für diese werden die relevanten Aspekte diskutiert: Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklung, technisches PV Marktpotenzial, zahlreiche PV Technologien und die energetische Nachhaltigkeit der PV. Die drei wesentlichen Marktsegmente der PV sind PV Lösungen für netzferne Gebiete, dezentralisierte kleinere netzgekoppelte PV Systeme (einige kWp) und große PV Kraftwerke (Vielfaches von 10 MWp). Das weltweite ökonomische Marktpotenzial für alle wesentlichen PV Marktsegmente wird hauptsächlich durch die Anwendung der ‘grid-parity‘ und ‘fuel-parity‘ Konzepte abgeleitet. Das Hybridisierungspotenzial von PV Kraftwerken in Bezug auf alle relevanten Kraftwerksarten wird auf seine technische, wirtschaftliche und geografische Machbarkeit hin untersucht. Die wesentlichen Erfolgsfaktoren für hybride PV Kraftwerke werden diskutiert und umfassend für Öl, Gas und Kohle gefeuerte Kraftwerke, Windkraft, solarthermische Kraftwerke (STEG) und Wasserkraftwerke analysiert. Für die 2010er Jahre werden detaillierte weltweite Nachfragekurven für hybride PV-Fossile Kraftwerke unter Einbezug aller fossilen Kraftwerke, Länderdaten und Brennstoffarten ermittelt. Die fundamentalen technischen und ökonomischen Potenziale von hybriden PV-STEG, hybriden PV-Wind und hybriden PV-Wasserkraftwerken werden betrachtet. Die weltweite Ressourcenverfügbarkeit für PV und Windkraft ist exzellent, weswegen es von größter Bedeutung ist, ob sich PV und Windkraft durch eine kompetitive oder komplementäre Beziehung zueinander auszeichnen. Die Komplementarität von hybriden PV-Windkraftwerken wird bestätigt. Es ergibt sich daher keine Reduktion des globalen ökonomischen PV Marktpotenzials und Systeme auf der Basis von hybriden PV-Windkraftwerken sind sehr wahrscheinlich. Das zentrale Ziel lautet erneuerbare Kraftwerkstechnologien in das globale Elektrizitätssystem zu integrieren und dabei eine Durchdringung von 100% zu erreichen. Neben Ausgleichskapazitäten werden hierfür Speicher benötigt, insbesondere für die saisonale Elektrizitätsspeicherung. Erneuerbares Methan (RPM) bietet sich hierfür an. Eine umfassende weltweite Analyse untersucht Elektrizitätssysteme auf der Basis von hybriden PV-Wind-RPM-Gaskraftwerken. Ein solches Elektrizitätssystem könnte unter Einbezug des Wärme- und Transportsektors und sogar der Chemieindustrie wettbewerbsfähig sein und nahezu alle heutigen Beschränkungen überwinden. Hybride PV Kraftwerke stellen eine äußerst attraktive Option zur Elektrizitätsversorgung dar. Die Photovoltaik wird gemeinsam mit der Windkraft die Solar- und Windenergie als hauptsächliche und finale Energiequellen für die Menschheit etablieren.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
This paper discusses the driving forces behind the continued strength of crystalline silicon technology. The history of silicon technology development is reviewed, and projections made as where to silicon technology is likely to go in the following 10 years. Next the barriers that have inhibited the emergence of competing technologies are discussed, along with the steps that need to be taken to surmount those barriers. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for all member states of the European Union and the United States of America, respectively. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. In the EU and the US, first grid-parity events will occur in late 2009 or early 2010 in Italy and Hawaii, respectively. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the EU and the US, reaching an addressable market of about 90% and 65% of total electricity market, respectively. In parallel to grid-parity events, next milestones for PV industry will be diesel-parity and natural gas-parity. Reaching grid-parity will require new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits. PV technology is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
The huge solar resources in the MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa), significant improvements in concentrating solar power (CSP) technology and in power transmission technologies, and the urgent need to remove carbon emissions from the European (EU) energy system lead to an increased interest in an EU-MENA electricity grid interconnection. As contribution to the current discussions about DESERTEC, MedGrid and other initiatives this article describes the approach and results of an analysis of possible solar electricity import corridors from MENA to Europe including Turkey. The study is based on solar energy potentials of the MENA countries identified by remote sensing, reviewed performance and cost data of generation and transmission technologies, and geographic data and information systems (GIS) for the spatial analysis. CSP plants combined with high temperature heat storage and high voltage direct current (HVDC) overhead lines and sea cables represent the key technologies for implementing this promising option for renewable energy import/export. The total technical solar power generation potential from remote sensing analysis in the seven MENA countries considered was calculated to about 538,000TWh/yr. This huge potential implies that less than 0.2% of the land suitable for CSP plants would be enough to supply 15% of the electricity demand expected in Europe in the year 2050. A GIS analysis of potential future HVDC corridors led to the description and characterization of 33 possible import routes to main European centers of demand.
Article
The allure of an environmentally benign, abundant, and cost-effective energy source has led an increasing number of industrialized countries to back public financing of renewable energies. Germany’s experience with renewable energy promotion is often cited as a model to be replicated elsewhere, being based on a combination of far-reaching energy and environmental laws that stretch back nearly two decades. This paper critically reviews the centerpiece of this effort, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), focusing on its costs and the associated implications for job creation and climate protection. We argue that German renewable energy policy, and in particular the adopted feed-in tariff scheme, has failed to harness the market incentives needed to ensure a viable and cost-effective introduction of renewable energies into the country’s energy portfolio. To the contrary, the government’s support mechanisms have in many respects subverted these incentives, resulting in massive expenditures that show little long-term promise for stimulating the economy, protecting the environment, or increasing energy security.
Article
The objective of this paper is to suggest a methodology that will help us to determine if the present rate and direction of technological change is compatible with the development of a sustainable society. We combine two perspectives on technology assessment. The first focuses on current techno-economic trends and the second on long-term resource and environmental constraints to the diffusion of a new technology. We apply our approach to the case of solar cells. Based on an analysis of technology, actor and market dynamics we suggest that thin-film solar cells are about to dominate the industry. Within the thin-film family, there is competition between alternative designs. The diffusion of three of these will, however, be limited by resource, and perhaps emission, constraints. One design (a-Si) fares much better in terms of these constraints but is less efficient. Three policy issues are identified. First, the diffusion of solar cells is not yet self-sustained and further policy intervention is required. Second, the problems of the current thin-film designs suggest that there is a need for policies both to sustain variety and to balance that requirement with the short-term requirement of cost reduction. Third, policy must ensure that a diffusion of solar cells containing scarce metals does not lead to an erosion of environmental constraints.
Article
The combination of substantial public funding of nascent energy technologies and recent increases in the costs of those that have been most heavily supported has raised questions about whether policy makers should sustain, alter, enhance, or terminate such programs. This paper uses experience curves for photovoltaics (PV) and wind to (1) estimate ranges of costs for these public programs and (2) introduce new ways of evaluating recent cost dynamics. For both technology cases, the estimated costs of the subsidies required to reach targets are sensitive to the choice of time period on which cost projections are based. The variation in the discounted social cost of subsidies exceeds an order of magnitude. Vigilance is required to avoid the very expensive outcomes contained within these distributions of social costs. Two measures of the significance of recent deviations are introduced. Both indicate that wind costs are within the expected range of prior forecasts but that PV costs are not. The magnitude of the public funds involved in these programs heightens the need for better analytical tools with which to monitor and evaluate cost dynamics.
Article
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
Q-Cells presentation, PHTON's 1 st TECAF Conference
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The Solar Industry within the SET-Plan, 5 th EU PV Industry Forum
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From Space to Earth -The Story of Solar Electricity, aatec publications
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Photovoltaic industry substantially revises its target to supply 12% of European electricity demand by 2020
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Wirtschaftlichkeit von Photovoltaik in nicht subventionierten Märkten, Diploma thesis
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Value of Solar PV Electricity in MENA Region, Casablanca Forum: Large-Scale Solar Power in MENA: Vision and Reality
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Grid Parity of PV Power in India, Indo-German Energy Symposium
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Kar M., 2010. Grid Parity of PV Power in India, Indo-German Energy Symposium, New Delhi, April 28
Power for the World -The Emergence of Electricity from the Sun
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Ikki O. and Kaizuka I., 2010. PV in Japan -Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow, in: W. Palz (ed.), Power for the World -The Emergence of Electricity from the Sun, Pan Stanford Publishing, Singapore
Will This Work? Is It Realistic? -Thoughts and Acts of a Political Practitioner with a Solar Vision
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Fell H.-J., 2010. Will This Work? Is It Realistic? -Thoughts and Acts of a Political Practitioner with a Solar Vision, in: W. Palz (ed.), Power for the World -The Emergence of Electricity from the Sun, Pan Stanford Publishing, Singapore
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 -Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
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Das Wachstumspotenzial der Photovoltaik und der Windkraft -divergierende Wahrnehmungen zentraler Akteure
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General assessment of the reliability of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules
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Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve
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Elektrizität: Schlüssel zu einem nachhaltigen und klimaverträglichen Energiesystem
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Value of PV for Large Scale Solar Power Plants in MENA, First Solar, Hannover Messe, SOLAR XXL -Solar solutions to power the Middle
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Equity Research, Sun keeps shining; initiating on the solar sector with a positive view
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