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The Utilization of Water Resources for Agriculture in Syria: Analysis of Current Situation and Future Challenges
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Fourth Centenary of the Foundation of the First Academy of Sciences: “Academia Lynceorum” by Federico Cesi and Pope Clemente VIIIErice, Italy, 18 – 26 August 2003By (author): R Ragaini (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA)
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... Land. Most of the agricultural land in Syria is rain-fed, however about 22% of cultivated land has been irrigated since 2000 (Barnes, 2009;Salman & Mualla, 2003). Over the past four decades, the government promoted aggressive irrigation projects leading to an expansion in irrigated land from 625,000 hectares in 1985 to 1.4 million in 2005 (Barnes, 2009;Salman & Mualla, 2003). ...
... Most of the agricultural land in Syria is rain-fed, however about 22% of cultivated land has been irrigated since 2000 (Barnes, 2009;Salman & Mualla, 2003). Over the past four decades, the government promoted aggressive irrigation projects leading to an expansion in irrigated land from 625,000 hectares in 1985 to 1.4 million in 2005 (Barnes, 2009;Salman & Mualla, 2003). A stable growth of irrigated areas was further seen between 2003 and 2007, with annual growth of 2.9% per year reaching 1.54 million hectares of irrigated land in 2006-2007(Saleh et al., 2016. ...
... This allocation of water was achieved through irrigation projects and a multiplication of privately dug, illegal wells. In May 2002, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that 55% of the wells in Syria were dug illegally (Salman & Mualla, 2003). Gleick (2014) reports how these illegal wells meant that 78% of national groundwater withdrawals exceed recharge rate, leading to an increase in water deficits across basins. ...
... Domestic water uses account for just around 9% of total water consumption. Syria's fast population growth, which reached 2.7 percent in 2006 [9], was a significant challenge before the civil war, resulting in a quickly rising demand for urban and industrial water. During our research, we discovered that many areas of Syria's surface and groundwater resources are polluted. ...
... The high levels of pollution resulting from concentrated agricultural and industrial activities pose a threat to drinking water sources. In addition to this, there is a significant amount of pollution that is brought on by industrial waste, which can include nitrate, phosphate, and heavy metals [9]. The discharge of sewage into the Awaj basin has led to the contamination of the spring water there, making it unsafe to drink [11]. ...
... Abo, et al. [15] conducted research on groundwater recharge in the Al Zerba basin. The hydrochemical parameters of an alluvial aquifer in Damascus Oasis were investigated by Abou Zakhem, et al. [9]. This research was carried out by Hamade, S., and Tabet, C. [34]. ...
In regions prone to droughts, such as Syria, water shortages and urbanization increase the need for water to meet domestic, industrial, commercial, and agricultural demands. According to research, the leaching of toxic substances from the treatment of sewage water stations is likely to influence the quality of groundwater. In some locations, the overexploitation of surface water and groundwater resources has outpaced natural recharge rates, resulting in water scarcity and high demand for safe drinking water. Alternately, climate change has a significant impact on Syria's water situation, resulting in protracted drought in several sections of the nation. Water scarcity has been exacerbated by civil unrest and armed conflict in several areas of Syria, particularly in areas controlled by anti-Assad Syrian rebel groups. Previous studies established that groundwater and surface water pollution is a widespread problem across the entirety of Syria. The high levels of pollution resulting from concentrated agricultural and industrial activities pose a threat to drinking water sources. In addition, industrial waste, which might contain nitrate, phosphate, and heavy metals, contributes to a substantial amount of pollution. This project seeks to increase the use of wind and solar energy as a means of powering water treatment plants in Syria, where water is contaminated with heavy metals and other toxins.
... The countries of the Middle East are considered with significant spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and with local surface and groundwater resources. As a Middle East country, Syria turns into increasingly scarce water as the future requirement approaches or exceeds current resources (Varela-Ortega and Sagardoy 2002;Salman and Mualla 2004). Syria (Fig 1) includes very arid, arid, semi-arid, humid, and semi-humid climatic zones (Fig 2 and Fig 3). ...
... Groundwater use in Syria has increased considerably and is overexploited in an unsustainable manner. Almost 60% of all irrigated sites in Syria depend on groundwater (Salman and Mualla 2004). Areas irrigated by groundwater increased by 140% from 1985 to 2002 (Somi, Zein, Dawood, Sayyed-Hassan, 2002). ...
... About 87% of all water is used for irrigation, with almost 60% taken from groundwater resources, which leads to immense and unsustainable exploitation of these resources (Wada, Beek, Bierkens, 2012). The rest is used for household and industrial purposes, which account for 9% and 4%, respectively (Salman and Mualla 2004). Therefore, the highest water consumption can be detected in areas where irrigation is common. ...
As a result of climate change, it is clear to provide instability for conflict zones in the coming years. Moreover, climate change has potential socio-economic consequences in addition to environmental impacts. For example, decreasing water resources and rural land usage forces people to migrate from rural to urban areas due to low productivity in agriculture and animal husbandry, rising food prices, and decreasing wealth levels. In this study, we evaluate climate change impacts on northeast Syria, a wetter climate zone in the country. Within the scope of the study, in addition to addressing the effects of climate change on the scale of drought, we determined to what extent land-use changes and agricultural patterns throughout the region affect water use (mainly groundwater). Revealing the possible relations between the previous regional conflicts and the changes in land use, drought, and water use will be beneficial in terms of evaluating the possible threats in the future. Obviously, the changes in land use, the increase in irrigated agricultural areas, and the intensive groundwater use make the situation worse. Drought has exacerbated these problems. It is undeniable that the effects of climate change are one of the most pressing political and economic challenges in the region. Therefore, it is worthwhile to evaluate the potential future threat of the spread of conflicts that were experienced before. It is undeniable that climate change effects seem to be one of the region's most pressing political and economic challenges. Therefore, the entire Syria and the northeast region require more attention to adapt climate change effects on water resources to peace and security.
... Syria is located in a region where water scarcity is dominant. Water in Syria has mainly used for irrigation, and nearly half of irrigation systems use groundwater as their water resource (Salman and Mualla 2004) (Fig. 2). According to FAO (2018) special report on Syria, the country can be divided into the five Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) based on the level of annual precipitation received, as shown in Fig. 3: ...
... Groundwater use in Syria has increased considerably and is overexploited in an unsustainable manner. Almost 60% of all irrigated sites in Syria depend on groundwater (Salman and Mualla 2004). Areas irrigated by groundwater increased by 140% from 1985 to 2002 (Somi et al., 2002). ...
... About 87% of all water is used for irrigation, with almost 60% taken from groundwater resources, which leads to immense and unsustainable exploitation of these resources (Wada et al., 2012). The rest is used for domestic and industrial purposes, which account for 9% and 3%, respectively (Salman and Mualla 2004). Therefore, the highest water consumption can be detected in areas where irrigation is common. ...
The resources of groundwater and its pollution in Syria are identified, and pathways of contaminants to groundwater are described. Then, suggestions for improvement of groundwater quality in Syria are evaluated. Syria is located in a region where water scarcity is dominant. About 87% of all water in Syria is mainly used for irrigation, with almost 60% of this water taken from groundwater resources. The rest is used for domestic and industrial purposes, which account for 9% and 4%, respectively. Due to over-pumping and the increase in the number of unsustainable wells observed in recent decades, groundwater is quantitatively deteriorating. In general, sources of groundwater contamination fall into two main categories: natural and anthropogenic sources. Important sources of natural groundwater pollution include climate effects. About 43% of groundwater has a high concentration of SO4 and/or NaCl. This is specifically dominant in the eastern region of Syria due to the harsh environment where precipitation is relatively low, and evaporation is high. One of the major sources of anthropogenic groundwater contamination is civil war. Most of the damaged regions are located on permeable rocks, which increases the probability of groundwater contamination due to chemical weapons (CW) used. It is vital to manage and control groundwater resources well. With the increase in water contamination and with the absence of poor water management, access to drinking water will be more of a problem than it is now.
... In connection with ground water, Syria has valuable renewable groundwater resources The number of wells in the basin area has dramatically increased; about one-third of these wells are illegal (Salman and Mualla 2003). Consequently, a severe groundwater overexploitation finishes up by evident negative impacts represented by drying of Al-Khabour River and all springs recharge it (FAO 2005) in addition to unstable change in the soil profile texture which recently caused several collapses in some areas of the basin (Galli et al. 2010). ...
... The Euphrates is the largest river in the country, which runs through Syria for 680 km and has an average flow of 564 m 3 /second. In drought season 1999, the Euphrates Basin accounted for about 50% of total water withdrawal in the country(Salman and Mualla 2003;Frenken 2009). As the population increases, the demand for agricultural products increases and hence the number of water supply projects in the Euphrates. ...
The agricultural sector is characterized by higher exposure to a variety of risks compared to the other economic sectors. Agricultural risks include production, market, credit, technological, institutional and human resource risks. Moreover, the agricultural risk environment is changing with high frequency and severity due to climate change and market liberalization. Insecurity about water and food supply has rapidly increased corresponding to the change in agricultural risk environment, and this requires a continuous improvement of risk management instruments for sustainable economic development. If the changeable risks are excluded from the agricultural and rural development analysis, then policy recommendations would be misleading. Additionally, policy decisions about the suggested improvements and intervention measures might be inappropriate. In such a context, a comprehensive and continuous monitoring of how farmers perceive risks in their own ways is paramount for policy makers to develop appropriate risk management strategies. Moreover, it is useful for the developers of risk management programs to have information about the factors that differentiate farmers’ attitudes and perceptions. Against this background, it is the objective of the thesis to provide empirical insights into various issues of risk management in Syrian agriculture. Syria is an emerging economy in which agriculture still plays an important role and where at the same time climate change as well as changing agricultural policies, for instance market liberalization, put farmers under severe pressure. Based on survey data of 103 wheat-cotton and 105 pistachio farms in Syria, this thesis studies survey data relating to farmers’ risk attitudes and farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management. Furthermore, it analyzes, using multiple regression analysis, whether related socio-economic characteristics and farmers’ subjective beliefs relate to these attitudes and perceptions. Results show that wheat-cotton farmers are more likely risk-averse than pistachio farmers who could better be described as risk-neutral farmers. Rainfall shortage and fuel price increase are the most important risk sources that threaten both wheat-cotton and pistachio cultivation. Moreover, risks of ‘farm business effectiveness decline’ and ‘farm insolvency’ are highly perceived by wheat-cotton farmers compared with pistachio farmers. Despite their risk-averse nature, wheat-cotton farmers are less desired toward the adoption of management tools which would help to mitigate risk. ‘Farming as a secondary occupation’ and ‘faming forsaking’ are acceptable by almost half of interviewed wheat-cotton farmers. On the contrary, pistachio producers seem to be more satisfied with their farm income, thus they do not find the necessity to supplemented it with or replace it by non-farm income. The geographical location, education level and information resources have a considerable exploratory power for wheat-cotton farmers’ risk attitude and perceptions of risk and risk management. Socio-economic variables such off-farm work, farm land, availability of family labour and wells ownership had a considerable relationship with such perceptions. Our findings, also, provide new evidences on the relationships between subjective beliefs and both risk attitudes and perceptions, particularly for wheat-cotton samples. These evidences provide policy makers a wide prospect in order to optimize risk management strategies.
... However, the efficiency of water is quite low (40-60%) for the reason of excess irrigation with the traditional system. Even for the areas which are irrigated by furrows for the cultivation of vegetables and cotton, efficiency is still low because of the insufficiency of land leveling (Salman and Mualla, 2004). ...
Syria is a middle-income developing country with an economy that heavily depends on the food and agricultural sectors. However, with the recent Syria crisis/war, which started in March 2011, Syria’s food and agricultural industries have badly been affected. While the most of the processing factories and agricultural facilities such as industrial zones, food plants, greenhouses, irrigation canals and pumps have been damaged in the conflict areas, this resulted in a huge recession in the food and agricultural productivity of Syria. It is estimated that this will impact the country to meet the future food requirements as well. In this study, the agricultural and food potential of Syria was analysed based on agricultural area, available lands, irrigation, food sectors etc. for the future planning food policies.
ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ
Η κατανομή/διαχείριση των καλλιεργειών ( crops distribution/management) αποτελεί σημαντικό πρόβλημα στον πρωτογενή τομέα, κάτι που οδηγεί στην αύξηση της παραγωγής και συνεπάγεται την αύξηση του κέρδους. Έχουν χρησιμοποιηθεί αρκετοί τρόποι κατανομής, πολλοί από τους οποίους παρουσίασαν σημαντικά αποτελέσματα. Ο γραμμικός προγραμματισμός (linear programming) ή αλλιώς γραμμική βελτιστοποίηση, είναι μέθοδος για την επίτευξη του καλύτερου αποτελέσματος (πχ. μεγιστοποίηση κέρδους) σε ένα μαθηματικό υπόδειγμα, του οποίου οι προϋποθέσεις (περιορισμοί) είναι ένα σύνολο γραμμικών σχέσεων των μεταβλητών του. Στη παρούσα μελέτη γίνεται χρήση του γραμμικού προγραμματισμού για μεγιστοποίηση της απόδοσης των καλλιεργειών σε μία αγροτική περιοχή προς βελτιστοποίηση. Πιο συγκεκριμένα, χρησιμοποιείται το εργαλείο solver του excel που επιλύει γραμμικά προβλήματα, ώστε να πραγματοποιηθεί κατανομή των καλλιεργειών στην περιοχή μελέτης (ΛΑΠ π. Σπερχειού) κάτω από περιβαλλοντικούς περιορισμούς, με σκοπό τη βελτιστοποίηση της παραγωγής.
Πριν αναπτυχθεί η μεθοδολογία και προκύψουν τα αποτελέσματα, γίνεται εκτενής μελέτη για το πως μπορεί να συμβάλλει ο γραμμικός προγραμματισμός στην αγροτική ανάπτυξη. Διεξοδικότερα, αναφέρονται χαρακτηριστικά παραδείγματα που μας οδηγούν στο συμπέρασμα, ότι η επιλογή της συγκεκριμένης μεθοδολογίας είναι άκρως επιτυχής. Η βιβλιογραφία που αναφέρεται στο τέλος, περιέχει σημαντικά άρθρα που αξιοποιήθηκαν, ώστε το αντικείμενο μελέτης να γίνει πιο σαφές και κατανοητό.
Επιπλέον, γίνεται πλήρης περιγραφή της περιοχής μελέτης με προσδιορισμό των καλλιεργειών που απαντώνται, καθώς και αναφορά στους υπόλοιπους τομείς οικονομίας. Τεκμηριώνονται πλήρως οι περιορισμοί που λαμβάνονται υπόψη και τα δεδομένα αξιολογούνται και διασταυρώνονται από αξιόπιστες πηγές (πχ. ΕΛΓΑ, ΟΠΕΚΕΠΕ, Περιφέρεια Στερεάς Ελλάδας, Corine Land Cover 2018 κτλ.).
Τα αποτελέσματα που προκύπτουν από την εφαρμογή του γραμμικού προγραμματισμού στην περιοχή μελέτης – εφαρμόστηκε 23 φορές η μεθοδολογία στη λεκάνη απορροής του π. Σπερχειού, καθώς και σε κάθε μια από τις 22 υπολεκάνες του – δείχνουν ότι οι περιορισμοί είναι αυτοί, που καθορίζουν τα αποτελέσματα της μεθοδολογίας. Είναι προτιμότερο για πιο ορθά αποτελέσματα, το μοντέλο γραμμικού προγραμματισμού (με τη χρήση του εργαλείου solver) να εφαρμόζεται σε μικρές γεωργικές εκτάσεις.
Έτσι, καταλήγουμε σε σημαντικά συμπεράσματα έπειτα από τη σύγκριση των αποτελεσμάτων που προκύπτουν για τη σωστή κατανομή των καλλιεργειών στη συγκεκριμένη περιοχή μελέτης. Αυτό καταλήγει στην αύξηση της παραγωγής κάτω από ορισμένους περιβαλλοντικούς περιορισμούς, τους οποίους θα δούμε εκτενέστερα.
ABSTRACT
In agriculture, the production structure of farms can be highly diversified to reduce risk and uncertainty related to unsealing the products. To determine the optimal structure of crops, different methods which take into account the income and expenditure of crops per acre are used.As a result, the area of each crop is identified, so that, in combining them to derive maximum profit level. In this study, linear programming method is used for optimizing profit, investigating whether, after applying the econometric model, the profit increased or not.
This study investigates the economical activity of Sperchios river basin and to optimize its profit using linear programming method. The research question is whether after applying the econometric model the returns of the economical activity is higher or not.
Excel's solver tool was used to overcome the research question as it solves linear problems. The limitations that have been taken into account have helped to make the crops' distribution environmentally conscious.
Cross-data was used to give the best possible results. The study area has been fully developed with its crops as well as the other sectors of the economy.
A strategic shift has occurred in great power competition. The Pentagon says this strategic shift calls for an emphasis on U.S. grand strategy (linking economics and security) and geopolitics. Unfortunately, the U.S. keeps failing in its great power competition in the Greater Middle East. A militarized U.S. foreign policy marginalizes economics against Russia in Syria, against Iran in Iraq and against China in Afghanistan. Peaceful foreign policy opportunities are squandered. Therefore, the current U.S. administration’s economic nationalism is problematic. A better approach would be to turn enemies into friends by using shared prosperity in intra-state relations to reduce the demand for violence in the Syrian and Afghan civil wars. The French and Germans did much the same thing in inter-state relations after World War II.
What are the major domestic and external factors that have led to the emergence and diffusion of the 2011 Syrian conflict? Domestic factors concern Syria’s political-economic and political-ecological transitions since the 1970s, particularly the prominence of a resource-based, or extractivist, strategy of economic development, neoliberal restructuring, and inadequate environmental policies. This chapter argues that these factors have rendered Syria vulnerable to the destructive effect of external pressures associated with the role of geopolitics, proxy war, and foreign intervention. In terms of this chapter’s methodology, process tracing is used as the main guideline.
Water scarcity in Syria i s becoming an increasingly serious concern for public authorities as future demand of water is surpassing available resources. The agricultural sector in Syria consumes up to 85% of all available hydric resources in the country, hence the need to increase water use efficiency in agriculture is at the center of the nation's water policy discussions. Therefore the criteria, objectives and implementation of water policies demand important changes and a careful assessment. As agriculture is a key sector in the Syrian economy, irrigation expansion has mounted over the last decades to comply with the nation's food security objectives and to satisfy food production needs. At present, water policies in Syria are designed to combine the expansion of irrigation and to attain a sustainable use of water by increasing technical efficiency and by reducing future consumption. One of the pillars of this policy is the adoption of modern irrigation technologies at farm level that is already profiting from considerable government support.. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the irrigation water sector in Syria and its related water policies. The methodology includes two major parts at different levels of aggregation, a national and basin's level and a f arm level analysis. In both cases simulations of different scenarios have been carried out to permit short and long term assessments of different policy alternatives for conserving water resources. Results show that current water policies in Syria may not be sustainable and that sustainability will be reached in the medium term only if irrigation modernization is coupled with a limited and selective expansion of irrigated areas. Water policies in Syria will have to rely progressively on demand management and the introduction of incentives, such as water-crop quotas or tariffs, to attain water conservation objectives.
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