Marine Fuel Trends 2030

Abstract

The marine industry is undergoing a transformation. As well as managing today’s rising operational costs and achieving cost effective environmental compliance, ship operators are faced with tomorrow’s “big decisions”. Decisions about fuels, technology and whether it is possible to “future-proof” their fleet and assets.
In shipping today, the alternative fuels debate has been dominated by the potential of LNG. But will there be other, potentially viable, options? The answers are not immediately evident. There is a whole new layer of complexity in the decision making process for ship owners, a whole new set of signals to watch for but there are also likely to be new opportunities.
This presentation shall explore the driving forces and conditions influencing the future marine fuel mix. Based on different trade scenarios the session shall discuss how certain transitions will be facilitated and accelerated, what might be the impact of wider societal and economical drivers and how our choices might affect emissions from shipping.

Full text

Working together
for a safer world
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
The 8th World Ocean Forum 2014
Dr. Spyros E. Hirdaris
Lloyd’s Register Asia, Technology Group, South Korea
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
In 2013 we said shipping would double by 2030
Global
Commons
Competing
Nations
Status
Quo
What type of ships?
How many?
Which routes?

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
What about fuels and technology for deep sea shipping?
Wind
Sail
Coal
Steam
engine
Fuel oil
Diesel
engine ? Fuel?
Technology?
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
We have developed a new piece of research
Global
Commons
Competing
Nations
Status
Quo
Which fuel?
Which technology?
CO2 emissions?

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
We take our previous research forward
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
3 scenarios for deep sea shipping
Status Quo Business as usual
Short term regulatory solutions
Economic growth at the current rate
Global
Commons
International cooperation and trade agreements
Emphasis on environment and climate change
Expansion in globalisation
Competing
Nations
Local production and consumption
Regulatory fragmentation
Brake in globalisation

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Main assumption: maximum profit and regulatory compliance
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Deep sea shipping trade will grow in all scenarios
Containerships
Bulk carriers/general cargo ships
Tankers (crude/products/chemical)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
We considered many different options
Marine
residual (HFO)
Straight
vegetable oil
(bio-HFO)
Low sulphur
fuel oil
(LSHFO)
Straight
vegetable oil
(bio-LSHFO)
Marine
distillate
(MDO/MGO)
Biodiesel
(1st/2nd gen)
Liquefied
natural gas
(LNG)
Biogas
(bio-LNG) Hydrogen
Bio-hydrogen Methanol
(MeOH) Bio-methanol
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Technologies to match the fuels
Capital cost
(UPC)
Through-life
cost (TCL)
Specific fuel
consumption
(SFC)
Deadweight
loss
Technology performance
parameters

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Efficiency technology affects the fuel mix
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Not all fuels/technology are equally competitive

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Only 2 fuels for deep sea shipping in the mix today
Baseline
0 50 100
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
We will need twice as much fuel by 2030
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1.00
2.00
1.50
In Global
Commons,
efficiency
improvements
and speed
reductions will
mean less fuel is
needed

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Up to 11% LNG share for deep sea shipping
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
25
50
75
100
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
24% LNG compared to 2010 overall fuel demand
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0.20
0.40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Different scenarios for CO2 emissions
2
03
0
Global commons: carbon policy
reverses the trend from 2025
Competing nations: lowest
overall but increasing trend
Status Quo: worst case for
CO2 emissions
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1.00
2.00
1.50
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
It will be an interesting transition
Change cannot
happen overnight
HFO will have a high
but declining share in
2030
LNG will reach up to
11% of the Deep Sea
fuel mix by 2030
There will be no “one
size fits all” fuel and
technology
Society’s response to
climate change will
be a driver
In a carbon-focused
scenario, Hydrogen
can emerge

Lloyd’s Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyd’s Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates.
Copyright © Lloyd’s Register EMEA. 2014. A member of the Lloyd’s Register group.
Working together
for a safer world
www.lr.org/gmft2030
Dr. Spyros Hirdaris
Lead Specialist
Technology Group, Busan
T +82 (0)51 640 5063 E spyros.hirdaris @lr.org
Lloyd's Register Asia
10th Floor, CJ Korea Express Bldg.
119, Daegyo-ro, Jung-gu (2, 6-ga, Jungang-dong)
Busan 600-700, Republic of Korea