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Economic crisis and federal dynamics

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1
ECONOMIC CRISIS AND FEDERAL DYNAMICS
DIETMAR BRAUN AND PHILIPP TREIN
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1 Introduction+
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A-#%$%-"' @%$8-&$' 1' A&#8' ;-0' ;&0$8+0' <+"$01.%[1$%-"' Ne&+"$+#2' J&0[+.2' 1"(' Jh09h$$+0'
=>>gRE''
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4+0G' B&<8' <-"#$01%"+(' :G' VW' A-@+0#2' @8%.+' UQ' %"' $8+' 3WO' <1"' 1<$' @%$8-&$' B1F-0'
<-"#$01%"$#' :G' VWE' W@%$[+0.1"(' 81#' -".G' 0+<+"$.G2' %"' =>>g2'0+4%#+(' (%#$0%:&$%-"' -;'
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1;;1%0#' Ne-H' =>>?RE' 78%#' <0+1$+#' 1' ;.&<$&1$%"9' +/&%.%:0%&B' (+A+"(%"9' -"' UQ' %"%$%1$%4+#'
1"(' VW' <-BA.%1"<+E' !"' W@%$[+0.1"(2' :G' <-"$01#$2' .%K+' %"' U1"1(12' $8+' UQ' B1G' "-$' :+'
#&;;%<%+"$.G'#$0-"9'$-'1<$'1.-"+'1"(' B%98$' (+A+"(' -"'VW'1<$%-"2'@8%<8'"++(#'4-.&"$10G'
<--A+01$%-"E'W8%;$%"9':1.1"<+#'10+'"-$'$-':+'+HA+<$+('%"'$8%#'<1#+E''
78+'$@-'.1#$'0+B1%"%"9';+(+01$%-"#2'Q+0B1"G'1"('O&#$01.%12'814+2'.%K+'$8+'3WO2'1'#$0-"9'
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B1$$+0#' %#' @+..' K"-@"E' !$#' B1%"' %"#$0&B+"$' %#2' .%K+' %"' $8+' 3WO2' $8+' &#+' -;' <-"(%$%-"1.'
901"$#E'J+';%"('$8+0+;-0+'1'#%B%.10'<-"#$+..1$%-"'-;'1';+(+01.'91B+'$81$'%#':1#+('-"';%#<1.'
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B1F-0'#8%;$#'%"'$8+':1.1"<+'-;'A-@+0#E''
78+#+'10+2' -;'<-&0#+2'-".G' <-"F+<$&0+#'1"(' %$'"++(#' $-' :+'#++"' %;'#&<8' +HA+<$1$%-"#' 10+'
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814+'(%;;+0+"$'+;;+<$#'-"'#$1:%.%$G'1"('%"#$1:%.%$G'-;';+(+01.'1001"9+B+"$#E''
5
3 Fiscal+policies+and+federal+relations+
78+' 0+<+"$' +<-"-B%<' 0+<+##%-"' <-";0-"$+(' B-#$' #$1$+#' @%$8' (+<0+1#%"9' +<-"-B%<'
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"++(+('$-'B1%"$1%"'#+04%<+#'1"('#-<%1.'@19+#'@8%.+'(+<%(%"9'&A-"'1((%$%-"1.'#A+"(%"9'
-0'901"$%"9' -;' $1H'<0+(%$#' %"' -0(+0'$-' 0+4%4+'+<-"-B%<'1<$%4%$%+#E' e-0';+(+01.'#$1$+#' $8%#'
<1&#+('A10$%<&.10'A0-:.+B#E'
!"';+(+01.'#$1$+#'9-4+0"B+"$#'1$'(%;;+0+"$'.+4+.#'(+<%(+'-"'#A+"(%"9'1"('T'%"'B-#$'<1#+#'
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"-$'$8+'A-@+0'$-'+";-0<+'#&<8'#A+"(%"9':G'VW2'%$'(+A+"(#'+%$8+0'-"'$8+'^9--('@%.._'-;'VW'
$-'<-BA.G'-0'B&#$'-;;+0'901"$#'VW'<1"'&#+';-0'#A+"(%"9E'!"'$8+'.1$$+0'<1#+2'1'A0-:.+B'-;'
^B-01.'81[10(_' 10%#+#S' VW'B1G' $1K+' $8+'B-"+G' :&$' (-'"-$' #A+"('-0'#A+"(' %$';-0'-$8+0'
A&0A-#+#'$81"'%"$+"(+(E']".G'%;'$8+'UQ'81#'#%9"%;%<1"$'+HA+"(%$&0+'1&$8-0%$G'1"('%;'%$'<1"'
#A+"('B-0+'B-"+G'%"'1'(%#<0+$%-"10G'@1G'(&0%"9'$8+'<0%#%#2'#&<8'<--0(%"1$%-"'A0-:.+B#'
<1"' :+' 14-%(+(E' V-0+-4+02' ;%#<1.' 0+(%#$0%:&$%-"' 1001"9+B+"$#' -;$+"' <-"#$01%"' <0%#%#'
B1"19+B+"$E'!"'$1HL#810%"9' #G#$+B#2'UQ'B1G'"++(' $-'$01"#;+0'B-#$' -;' %$#'0+#-&0<+#'$-'
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(&0%"9' $8+' <0%#%#E' O..' %"' 1..2' $8+' ^;%#<1.' 0+9%B+_T' $8+' -4+01..' (%#$0%:&$%-"' -;' 1&$8-0%$G' %"'
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+HA+"(%$&0+#E'
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$1H'<0+(%$#'$-'#$%B&.1$+'+<-"-BG'B1G':+'B1(+'%"+;;+<$%4+'(&+'$-'-AA-#%"9'$1H'A-.%<%+#'-;'
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j+"<+2' ;+(+01$%-"#' 10+' <-";0-"$+(' @%$8' <--0(%"1$%-"' A0-:.+B#' @8+"' %BA.+B+"$%"9'
M+G"+#%1"' (+B1"(' B1"19+B+"$' #$01$+9%+#E' 78+G' <1"' +"$1%.' (%;;%<&.$%+#' $-' #-.4+' $8+'
+<-"-B%<'<0%#%#E'7-' @81$'+H$+"$'#&<8' A0-:.+B#'-<<&0'(+A+"(#' -"'$8+'A10$%<&.10' ^;%#<1.'
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6
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814+'"-'.1#$%"9'+;;+<$#E''
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4 Crisis+reactions+
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4.1 Temporary,reduction,of,discretion,
O<<-0(%"9' $-' -&0' ;%"(%"9#' tax+ relief+ measures,+ @8%<8' @+0+' &#+(' %"' <-&"$0%+#' @%$8' $1HL
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8
81(' ^4-%<+_' %"' ;+(+01.' (+<%#%-"LB1K%"92' 1#' ;-0' +H1BA.+' %"' WA1%"' 1"(' Q+0B1"G2'
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@8+"' %"#%#$%"9' -"' #A+"(%"9' %"' 1.$+0"1$%4+' +"+09%+#E' e-0'VW' $8+' <-"#$01%"$#' (&+' $-'
#A+"(%"9'0&.+#'10+'<-BA+"#1$+(':G'$8+'%";.&H'-;'1((%$%-"1.'B-"+G'$8+G'&#&1..G'"++('$-'
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9
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J%$8' $8+#+' (+<%#%-"#2' $8+' UQ' 1%B+(' 1$' 901(&1..G' 0+(&<%"9' $8+' $1H' #810+#'-;'VWE' 78+'
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9+"+01.'1<<+A$1"<+'-;'$8+#+'901"$#':G'VW'@1#'@+1KE']".G'1:-&$'-"+'$8%0('-;'$8+'B-"+G'
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]".G' %"' $8+' ;+(+01$%-"#' ;-0B%"9' $8+' .1#$' 90-&A2' <-"(%$%-"1.' 901"$#' @+0+' <-"$+#$+(' $-'
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4.2 Acts,of,defiance,
78+'#+<-"('<81..+"9+';-0'$8+'#$1:%.%$G'-;'$8+';+(+01.':1.1"<+'-;'A-@+0'0+#&.$';0-B'1<$#'
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10
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'
4.3 Authority,migration,
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:1.1"<%"9' $8+' :&(9+$' A.1G+(' 1' A10$%<&.10.G' %BA-0$1"$' 0-.+E' O..' ;-&0' <-&"$0%+#' 10+'
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11
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12
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'
5 Fiscal+ policies+ in+ economic+ crisis+ and+ the+ stability+ of+ federal+ balance+ of+
power+
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13
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<-&"$0%+#'@%$8'1"'oscillating+equilibrium+of+powerE'
!"'India2'$8+'+<-"-B%<'<0%#%#'@1#'"-$'$8+'<1&#+'-;'#$01$+9%+#'-;'UQ'$-'0+L#8%;$'$8+';%#<1.'
:1.1"<+'%"'%$#';14-0E'O'"&B:+0'-;'<+"$01.%[%"9'B+1#&0+#'@+0+'$1K+"':+;-0+'$8+'<0%#%#2'
1B-"9'$8+B'1"'1&$8-0%$G'#8%;$'%"'A&:.%<':-00-@%"9E'Y&0%"9'$8+'<0%#%#'$8+'UQ'+B+09+('
1#'$8+'(-B%"1$%"9'19+"<G'$81$'<1"'1$'.%:+0$G'(+$+0B%"+'$8+'<1A1<%$G'-;'VW'$-'1<$'N:G'
14
+1#%"9'(+:$'.%B%$#'1"(':G'&#%"9'<-"(%$%-"1.'901"$#RE'78%#2'-;'<-&0#+2'<-"$0%:&$+#'1.#-'
$-'$8+' %B19+' -;' .+1(+0#8%A' -;'$8+' UQ' 1"(' B1G' %"';&$&0+' 8+.A'$-' 0+;-0B' $8+' ;+(+01.'
-0(+0E' Y+<+"$01.%[1$%-"' 1"(' <+"$01.%[1$%-"' 10+' #$%..' %"' 1"' &"#$1:.+' +/&%.%:0%&B'%"'
!"(%1E''
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$-'$0+#A1##'$8+'1&$8-0%$G'-;'VWE'W+0%-&#';%#<1.'%B:1.1"<+#'.+('$-'1&$8-0%$G'B%901$%-"'
%"'(+A$'A-.%<GE']"'$8+'-$8+0'81"(2'+;;-0$'$-'<-"$%"&+'@%$8'(+<+"$01.%[1$%-"'1%B+('1$'
$01"#;+00%"9'B-0+'$1H'0+#-&0<+#'$-'VWE'Y+<+"$01.%[1$%-"'1"('<+"$01.%[1$%-"'10+':-$8'
#$%..'4%0&.+"$';-0<+#'%"';%#<1.'0+.1$%-"#E'j-@+4+02'$8+'@+1K+"%"9'-;'0+9%-"1.'A10$%+#'%"'
$8+' ;+(+01.' A10.%1B+"$' <-&.(' 4+0G' @+..' #%9"%;G' $81$' $8+' B-4+#' $-' 9%4+' UQ' B-0+'
<1A1<%$%+#' $-' 1<$' <-&.(' 9-' B&<8' ;&0$8+0E' !"' WA1%"' $8+0+;-0+' -"+' <1"' +HA+<$' B-0+'
<+"$01.%[1$%-"'1"('1'@+1K+"%"9'-;'$8+'(+<+"$01.%[1$%-"'A0-<+##E''
!"' Argentina2' "-' 0+;-0B#' #&<<++(+(' :&$' $8+' UQ' (+B-"#$01$+(' %$#' (-B%"1"$' 0-.+' %"'
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<-"(%$%-"%"9'+H$01' $01"#;+0#'-;' $1H+#E'78%#' #8-&.('9%4+' 1'#GB:-.%<' :--#$'$-' UQ'$81$'
$8+'"+@'M%0<8"+0'9-4+0"B+"$'<-&.('&#+'$-'#$0+"9$8+"'%$#'A-#%$%-"'4%#LiL4%#'VWE'
!"'$8+'stable+federal+countries'@+'(-'"-$';%"('0+.+41"$'1$$+BA$#'$-'#8%;$'$8+'#$1$&#'/&-E'
Z&$'+4+"'8+0+'$8+'<0%#%#'.+;$'%$#'B10K#E''
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+H%#$%"9' ;+(+01.' #$0&<$&0+#E' 78+0+' @1#' 1' 9+"+01.' <--A+01$%4+' 1$$%$&(+' 1$' $8+'
;+(+01.'1"('$8+'<1"$-"1.'.+4+.E'78+'+<-"-B%<' <0%#%#' 0+B1%"+(' $--'@+1K'$-'0+1..G'
$+#$'$8+'0+#%.%+"<+'-;'$8+';%#<1.';+(+01.'-0(+0'%"'W@%$[+0.1"(E'78%#'B%98$'<81"9+'%"'
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Germany'81#' 0+B1%"+('&"<-"$+#$+(E' !$'@1#' $8+0+;-0+' r:&#%"+##'1#' &#&1.r'@8+"'
$8+' UQ' $--K' $8+' .+1(' $-' ;%98$' 191%"#$' $8+' +<-"-B%<' <0%#%#E' 78+' A-.%<%+#' B1%".G'
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-0(+0E'
Y+4+.-AB+"$#'814+' :++"'#%B%.10' %"'Australia2' @8+0+'$8+' UQ'<-";%0B+(' %$#';%#<1.'
(-B%"1"<+' :G' $1K%"9' $8+' .+1(' %"' <-B:1$%"9' $8+' +<-"-B%<' <0%#%#E' Y%#<&##%-"#'
%"(&<+(':G'$8+' <0%#%#' <-"<+0"'&"#-.4+('A0-:.+B#' -;'0+('$1A+' %"';%#<1.'0+.1$%-"#E'
W&<8' (%#<&##%-"#' ;.10+' &A' ;0-B' $%B+' $-' $%B+' 1"(' $8+' +<-"-B%<' <0%#%#' 914+'
109&B+"$#'$-' UQ'$-' /&+#$%-"' $8+'+;;%<%+"<G' -;'$8+' ;%#<1.'-0(+0' @%$8-&$' 8-@+4+0'
.1&"<8%"9' 1"G' <-"<0+$+' 0+;-0B' A0-A-#1.#' &"$%.' "-@E' W$1:%.%$G' @1#' $8+0+;-0+'
B1%"$1%"+(E''
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<0%#%#E'78+'+B+09%"9'<-BA.1%"$#'1:-&$'$8+'<-"(%$%-"1.'901"$#'@+0+'"-$8%"9'"+@E'
Z&$'(%#<&##%-"#'B1G'4+0G'@+..'#$10$'%"'$8+'"+10';&$&0+':+<1&#+'-;'$8+'0+.&<$1"<+'
15
-;' VW' $-' 1<<+A$' $8+#+' 901"$#' -0'$8+' <-"#$01%"$#' $-' :1.1"<+' $8+%0' :&(9+$E' VW'
$8+B#+.4+#'10+'-;$+"'1$'$8+':0%"K'-;';%"1"<%1.'(%#1#$+0'@%$8';.10%"9'(+:$'01$+#2':&$'
$8+G' <1""-$' 0+.G' -"':1%.' -&$' :G' $8+' UQ' -0'-"'1"' +;;%<%+"$' ;%"1"<%1.' +/&1.%[1$%-"'
#G#$+B' $81$' <-&.(' 8+.A' $-' #$1:%.%[+' $8+%0';%"1"<%1.' #%$&1$%-"E' 78+#+' #$0&<$&01.'
@+1K"+##+#' %"' $8+' +H%#$%"9' ;%#<1.' 0+9%B+2' @8%<8' 8%"(+0+('#-.&$%-"#' $-' :-$8' $8+'
+<-"-B%<'1"('$8+';%"1"<%1.'<0%#%#2'B1G';-0<+':-$8'#%(+#'$-'+"$+0'%"$-'"+9-$%1$%-"#'
1:-&$'1'<81"9+'%"'$8%#'0+9%B+E'+
6 Conclusion+
7-'#&B'&A2'@+';%"('B-0+'<-"$%"&%$G'$81"'<81"9+'(&0%"9'$8+'+<-"-B%<'<0%#%#'-;'=>>I'
1"(' =>>DE' WA+<$1<&.10' $&0"10-&"(#' L' ;0-B' (+<+"$01.%[+(' $-' <+"$01.%[+(' :1.1"<+#' -;'
A-@+0'T' -0' +4+"'1' <.+10' $0+"('$-@10(#'#$0+"9$8+"%"9' <+"$01.'1&$8-0%$G'814+' "-$'$1K+"'
A.1<+E' !"' A0%"<%A.+2' 1"' +<-"-B%<' <0%#%#' <1"' 814+' .-"9L.1#$%"9' <+"$01.%[%"9' +;;+<$#' -"'
;+(+01.' #$0&<$&0+#' 1#' $8+' Q0+1$' Y+A0+##%-"' (+B-"#$01$+(E' 78+' #$0&99.+' ;-0' ;%#<1.'
1&$8-0%$G'%#'<+0$1%".G'1'B1F-0':1$$.+;%+.('%"';+(+01$%-"#2'1#'(%#<0+$%-"'1:-&$'0+4+"&+#'1"('
+HA+"(%$&0+#' (+$+0B%"+#' $8+' <1A1<%$G' -;' 1..' $+00%$-0%1.' 1<$-0#' $-' 1<$E' 781$' @+' (%(' "-$'
-:#+04+'-A+"' #$0&99.+#' (&0%"9' $8+' A+0%-(' %"4+#$%91$+(' 8+0+' <1"' :+' +HA.1%"+(' :G'$8+'
0+.1$%4+.G' .%B%$+(' +;;+<$#' $8+' <0%#%#' 81(' -"' #-<%1.' 1"(' +<-"-B%<' @+.;10+E' 78+' B+1#&0+#'
$1K+"' @+0+' -;$+"' #&;;%<%+"$' $-' -4+0<-B+' $8+' (+B1"(' <0%#%#' 1"(' 0+#&.$+(' %"' /&%<K'
0+<-4+0GE' 78%#' (-+#' "-$' B+1"' $81$' +<-"-B%<' <0%#+#' @-&.(' 814+' "-' B1F-0' %BA1<$#' -"'
;+(+01.%#BE'J+' (++B'%$'"+<+##10G'$-' (%#$%"9&%#8'^#$0-"9'<0%#%#_'1"(' ^@+1K'<0%#%#_2'@%$8'
$8+'.1$$+0':+%"9'<8101<$+0%[+(' :G'1'.-"9+0' .1#$%"9'(+$+0%-01$%-"'-;' +<-"-B%<'<-"(%$%-"#'
.+1(%"9'$-'(&01:.+'"+91$%4+' +;;+<$#' -"'+<-"-B%<'1"('#-<%1.'@+.;10+E' 78+' 91B+':+$@++"'
;+(+01.'1<$-0#'(%;;+0#'1<<-0(%"9'$-'$8+'$GA+'-;'<0%#%#S+
78+'@+1K'<0%#%#'@+'814+'(+#<0%:+('%"'$8%#'10$%<.+'1;;+<$+('$8+'^<1A1<%$G'$-'1<$_'-;'$8+'UQ'
1#' $8+' B1%"' 0+#A-"#%:.+' 19+"<GE' !"' ;+(+01$%-"#2' $8%#' <1A1<%$G' (+A+"(#' $-' (%;;+0+"$'
(+90++#' 1"(' @1G#' -"' $8+' <--A+01$%-"' -;' VWE' 78+' 91B+' $81$' %#' A.1G+(' 8+0+' %#' 1'
^<--0(%"1$%-"'91B+_' @%$8' 1'.-@' (+90++'-;' <-";.%<$E' e+(+01.' <-&"$0%+#' (%;;+0'%"' $8+' @1G'
$8+G'(+1.'@%$8'$8+'<0%#%#'1"('%"'$8+'@1G'$8%#'1;;+<$#';+(+01.'0+.1$%-"#E'k+$'1#'1'0&.+'$8+0+'
10+'T'1#'@+'814+' (+#<0%:+(' T'B%"-0'1(F&#$B+"$#2'#GB:-.%<'#$0+"9$8+"%"9'-;'UQ2' #+10<8'
;-0'$1<$%<1.' 1(41"$19+#' 1"('#K%0B%#8+#E'Z&$' 1..'$8%#'81#'"-$2' 1$'.+1#$'"-$' 1#'G+$2'.+('$-' 1'
#8%;$'%"'$8+':1.1"<+'-;'A-@+0E'78%#'A0+#&B1:.G'@%..':+'(%;;+0+"$'%"'1'#$0-"9'<0%#%#E'3"(+0'
$8+#+' <-"(%$%-"#'"-$' -".G' $8+' ;%"1"<%1.' A-$+"$%1.' -;' VW' :&$' 1.#-' -;' $8+' UQ' B1G' :+' %"'
(1"9+0E'!"'$%B+#'-;'#+0%-&#';%"1"<%1.'A0+##&0+'1"('1'#+4+0+'(+$+0%-01$%-"'-;'$8+'+<-"-B%<'
(+4+.-AB+"$2'$8+'%"$+09-4+0"B+"$1.'91B+'B1G'<81"9+E']"+'<1"'+HA+<$'-"'$8+'-"+'81"('
1$$+BA$#' $-' 0+L(%#$0%:&$+' ;%"1"<%1.' 1&$8-0%$G' %"' ;14-0' -;' $8+' UQ' %"' -0(+0' $-' 91%"' B-0+'
.+4+019+' $-' #-.4+' $8+' <0%#%#' 1"(' -"' $8+' -$8+0' 81"(' B-0+' 1$$+BA$#' $-' 0+9&.1$+' $8+'
:+814%-0'-;'VW'%"'-0(+0'$-'14-%('-AA-0$&"%#B'(&0%"9'$8+'<0%#%#E'78+0+'10+'%"(%<1$%-"#';-0'
#&<8'1'(+4+.-AB+"$'%"'$8+';+(+01.'<-&"$0%+#' -;' $8+' *&0-Lp-"+'@8+0+'(+:$'0+9&.1$%-"'-;'
VW' :+<1B+' $8+' B1%"' B+1#&0+' $-' <-A+' @%$8' $8+' %BB%"+"$' +<-"-B%<' %"#$1:%.%$GE' d+L
(%#$0%:&$%-"' 1"(' 0+9&.1$%-"' %9"%$+'%"$+"#+' <-";.%<$#' 1"(' $8+0+;-0+' <1&#+'<-";0-"$1$%-"#'
1:-&$'1&$8-0%$G'%"'$8+';+(+01$%-"E''
16
78+'<-"#+/&+"<+#'A0-:1:.G'410G':+$@++"'$8+'(%;;+0+"$'$GA+#' -;' ;+(+01.' #$1$+#'@+'814+'
(%#<&##+(E' Z&$' %$' %#' .%K+.G' $81$' 1' #+0%-&#' <0%#%#' @%..' .+1(' $-' #%9"%;%<1"$'<81"9+#' %"' $8+'
:1.1"<+' -;' A-@+0#E' WGB:-.%<' :--#$' -;' $8+' UQ' B1G' :+' &#+(' $-' <.1%B' 0+;-0B#' %"' ;%#<1.'
0+.1$%-"#P' $+BA-010G' 0+(&<$%-"' -;' (%#<0+$%-"' B1G' $&0"' %"$-'^1&$8-0%$G' B%901$%-"' :G'
#$+1.$8_P' 1<$#' -;' (+;%1"<+' ;0-B' $8+' A10$' -;' UQ' B1G' :+<-B+' 1' 0+9&.10' #$01$+9GP'1"('
(%#A&$+#' 1:-&$' <-BA+$+"<+#' B1G' :+' <-"$%"&1..G' -"' $8+' A-.%$%<1.' 19+"(1E' 78+' -"L9-%"9'
%"$+0"1$%-"1.';%"1"<%1.'<0%#%#'B1G'A0-4%(+'1"'-<<1#%-"'$-'$+#$'@8+$8+0'$8+#+'<-"F+<$&0+#'
A0-4+'$-':+'@0-"9'-0'0%98$E'
'
d*e*d*cU*W'
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