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TESTING THE "PRESTO" EARLY WARNING ALGORITHM IN NORTH-EASTERN ITALY, AUSTRIA AND SLOVENIA: UPDATE ANALYSIS (presentation)

Authors:
  • Retired from ZAMG
TESTING
TESTING THE "PRESTO" EARLY WARNING
THE "PRESTO" EARLY WARNING
ALGORITHM WITH OGS, ARSO AND ZAMG
ALGORITHM WITH OGS, ARSO AND ZAMG
SEISMIC DATA:
SEISMIC DATA:
UPDATE ANALYSIS
UPDATE ANALYSIS
Luca Elia1, Andrej Gosar2, Wolfgang Lenhardt3, Marco Mucciarelli4,
Damiano Pesaresi
4,
Matteo Picozzi1, Mladen Živčić2, and Aldo Zollo1
1
14
4
3
3
2
2
SECOND EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND SEISMOLOGY
ISTANBUL | Turkey | Aug. 25-29, 2014
Earthquake Early Warning
Earthquake Early Warning
Earthquake Early Warning
Objective: To estimate in a fast and reliable way
the earthquake’s damage potential
Objective: To estimate in a fast and reliable way
the earthquake’s damage potential
An integrated software
An integrated software
platform for real data
platform for real data
processing and
processing and
seismic alert notification
seismic alert notification
Automatic procedures for the
probabilistic and evolutionary
estimation of source parameters
and prediction of
ground motion shaking.
Automatic
Automatic
Picking
Picking
RT
RT
Earthquake
Earthquake
Location
Location
RT
RT
Magnitude
Magnitude
Estimation
Estimation
PGx
PGx
Prediction
Prediction
at Targets
at Targets
Satriano & Elia (2010). PRESTo, the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts, capabilities and future perspectives. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng
PLUS
PLUS
4
Historical seismicity
Historical seismicity
Historical seismicity
from Bragato et al., 2011
EGU 2014 5
Epicenter
Epicenter
Vulnerable
Site
Vulnerable
Site
Station
Alert Level
Station
Alert Level
Magnitude
Magnitude
Depth
Depth
Accelerograms
Accelerograms P- and S-waves Windows
P- and S-waves Windows
PRESTo
PRESTo
PLUS
PLUS
Playback of the 1976 Friuli (Italy) Mw 6.5 Eqk
S-Waves
S-Waves
6
PRESTo
PRESTo
PLUS
PLUS
Playback of the 1976 Friuli (Italy) Mw 6.5 Eqk
Would the EEW have been useful?
Would the EEW have been useful?
Would the EEW have been useful?
7
Given the 1976 network configuration, the Blind Zone (BZ) is about 40 km
Municipalities in the area within the VI and VII macroseismic isolines could have been
alerted
Region Blind Zone (km) EW Zone (km) Lead-Time (s) N. Mun. BZ N. Mun. SZ
Friuli 28.3 9.6 - 39.6 3 - 13 60 87-176
Would today a EEWS be useful?
Would today a EEWS be useful?
Would today a EEWS be useful?
27 Municipalities within the EW Zone might
benefit of a lead-time > 10 s
DM: PGV Int. Class VII from Faccioli & Cauzzi (2006)
O Municipalities
Stations
Example of Actions that might be taken
with 10 seconds warning (by Goltz 2002)
1976 Friuli EQ. Mw 6.5 scenario + CE3RN stations
CE3RN
*
stations in PRESTo
(
*
Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network)
CE3RN
CE3RN
*
*
stations in
stations in PRESTo
PRESTo
(
(
*
*
Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network)
Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network)
9
In real-time since the begin of 2014
Since the end of May, 8 success and 2 false
events have been detected
In real
In real-
-time since the begin of 2014
time since the begin of 2014
Since the end of May, 8 success and 2 false
Since the end of May, 8 success and 2 false
events have been detected
events have been detected
20 Stations
20 Stations
10
PRESTo
PRESTo
ML: 4.5
Date: 2014-04-22 08:58:40.28 UTC
Place: North-Eastern Italy
Using 8 stations of OGS,ARSO,ZAMG
The first information on location and
magnitude of the earthquake was
available at this time:
2014-04-22 08:58:57.21 UTC
i.e. about 9.7 seconds after the first
P arrival detected at station ACOM
at this time:
2014-04-22 08:58:47.48 UTC
EXAMPLE OF WRONG EVENT DETECTION
EXAMPLE OF WRONG EVENT DETECTION
ORIGINAL BINDING PARAMETERS: 5 stations IN 6 sec
ORIGINAL BINDING PARAMETERS: 5 stations IN 6 sec
THE EVENT WAS DECLARED ON THE CLUSTER OF
THE EVENT WAS DECLARED ON THE CLUSTER OF
STATIONS IN THE FRIULI AREA AND NOT ON THE
STATIONS IN THE FRIULI AREA AND NOT ON THE
SLOVENIAN ONES
SLOVENIAN ONES
(NEW BINDING PARAMETERS ARE UNDER TEST
(NEW BINDING PARAMETERS ARE UNDER TEST
)
)
True Location
11
EXAMPLE OF GOOD DETECTION
EXAMPLE OF GOOD DETECTION
10 seconds after the first P arrival detection
10 seconds after the first P arrival detection
12
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
OGS, ARSO, and ZMAG started a cooperation with the
OGS, ARSO, and ZMAG started a cooperation with the
RISSCLab
RISSCLab-
-UNINA to explore the feasibility of EEWS in North
UNINA to explore the feasibility of EEWS in North-
-
East Italy, Slovenia and Austria region
East Italy, Slovenia and Austria region
The playback of the 1976 Friuli earthquake (Mw 6.5) highlights
The playback of the 1976 Friuli earthquake (Mw 6.5) highlights
that an EEWS might be relevant for providing real
that an EEWS might be relevant for providing real-
-time alerts
time alerts
to a large number of municipalities
to a large number of municipalities
The first months experience confirmed that a proper tuning of
The first months experience confirmed that a proper tuning of
the
the PRESTo
PRESTo parameters (e.g. binding parameters, Pd
parameters (e.g. binding parameters, Pd-
-M
M
relationship) and a constant check of the network operative
relationship) and a constant check of the network operative
conditions (e.g. time for data telemetry, stations performance)
conditions (e.g. time for data telemetry, stations performance)
are the key elements for optimizing the EEW system
are the key elements for optimizing the EEW system
performance
performance
Thanks for your attention
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