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A study on the vulnerability of developing & Island states: a composite index
... De acuerdo a sus características, la vulnerabilidad también puede clasificarse como coyuntural o estructural (Atkins, Mazzi y Ramlogan, 1998;Guillaumont, 1999;2013;2016;Briguglio, 2004;Briguglio, Cordina, Farrugia y Vella, 2006;. En la vulnerabilidad coyuntural, los shocks son temporales (corto plazo) y podrían solucionarse (o exacerbarse) con medidas de intervención, que generalmente son aplicadas por los gobiernos. ...
... La vulnerabilidad económica se define como el grado de exposición o riesgo al que se encuentra sometido un individuo, su familia, o el país en su conjunto, ante la probabilidad de ocurrencia de shocks exógenos (Atkins et al., 1998;Guillaumont, 1999;2013;2016;Cordina, 2004;Briguglio, Cordina, Farrugia y Vella, 2008;). Para Guillaumont (1999;2013;2016), la vulnerabilidad económica depende, fundamentalmente, de tres tipos de componentes: el tamaño y la probabilidad de los shocks, la exposición a los shocks, y la capacidad para resistir y recuperarse de los daños ocasionados como fruto de los eventos adversos. ...
... En el plano conceptual, desde este enfoque, no solamente son importantes los shocks de carácter económico (comercial y financiero 3 ), sino también los de tipo natural; recalcando el carácter multidimensional y multifacético de la vulnerabilidad (Atkins et al., 1998;Guillaumont, 1999;2013;Briguglio, 2003). Empero, Guillaumont (2010) aclara que existe una diferencia entre los choques naturales y los económicos: mientras los primeros pueden ser de una sola vez, en el caso de los shocks económicos pueden repetirse. ...
El objetivo de este estudio es hacer una revisión del significado y los alcances que tiene el concepto de vulnerabilidad macroeconómica (VM), enfatizando en la situación a la cual se enfrentan las economías en desarrollo. Para este propósito, se realizó una revisión bibliográfica de las publicaciones más relevantes acerca de este tema. Como resultado de este estudio, se identificaron tres enfoques que abordan el estudio de la VM: a) el estructural; b) el que asocia la VM con la ocurrencia de episodios de crisis; y c) aquel que plantea que la VM está relacionada con la inestabilidad macroeconómica real. Más allá de los contrastes que se encontraron entre las diferentes posturas teóricas, se concluye que la VM es un fenómeno muy arraigado en las economías latinoamericanas, cuyas consecuencias se han agravado como resultado de la profundización de la integración comercial y financiera que se ha dado en las últimas décadas.
... There have been a number of attempts to create vulnerability indices. For example, Briguglio (1992), Chander (1996, Wells (1996) and Atkins et al. (1998) have attempted to construct economic vulnerability indices; Pantin (1997), Atkins et al. (1998) and the South Pacific Geosciences Commission (SOPAC) (an inter-governmental organization dedicated to providing services to promote sustainable development among its 17 member states and three associate member states), in conjunction with partners (such as the UNEP, institutions and experts from Ireland, Italy, New Zealand and Norway), various SIDS institutions and the Alliance of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS) (2003), have attempted to construct an environmental index; ECLAC (2003) and St. Bernard (2004) have made attempts to construct a social vulnerability index. For further details on vulnerability indices, see Kaly et al. (2003). ...
... There have been a number of attempts to create vulnerability indices. For example, Briguglio (1992), Chander (1996, Wells (1996) and Atkins et al. (1998) have attempted to construct economic vulnerability indices; Pantin (1997), Atkins et al. (1998) and the South Pacific Geosciences Commission (SOPAC) (an inter-governmental organization dedicated to providing services to promote sustainable development among its 17 member states and three associate member states), in conjunction with partners (such as the UNEP, institutions and experts from Ireland, Italy, New Zealand and Norway), various SIDS institutions and the Alliance of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS) (2003), have attempted to construct an environmental index; ECLAC (2003) and St. Bernard (2004) have made attempts to construct a social vulnerability index. For further details on vulnerability indices, see Kaly et al. (2003). ...
... 2. An alternative method is that proposed by Atkins et al. (1998) and Wells (1997). This method entails using (weighted least squares) regression analysis. ...
Catastrophic events resulting from natural and anthropogenic causes have exacted an enormous toll on small island developing states (SIDS) for many centuries. Several studies have provided useful insights into the identification of vulnerabilities as a means of reducing exposure and preparing for incidents, as well as to help manage the impact of these unavoidable disastrous events. However, the vulnerability hypothesis has largely concentrated on the exposure of countries to hazards that are caused by economic, social, and environmental conditions. In this article, we extend the analysis to incorporate, the deployment of information and communication technologies (ICT) in SIDS, the vulnerabilities associated with these ICT, and the impact they could have and, indeed, are having on other types of vulnerabilities. Firstly, we use Briguglio's (199710.
Briguglio , L. Alternative Economic Vulnerability Indices for Developing Countries. report prepared for the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). December17–19. View all references) normalization procedure to construct vulnerability indices for the three main tenets of vulnerability faced by SIDS; secondly, we formulate an ICT-specific vulnerability index (VI) through the identification of underlying factors that make up the sub-components of this intermediate composite index. Thirdly, elucidating the methodology of Krajnc and Glavič (200532.
Krajnc , D. and
Glavič , P. 2005. How to compare companies on relevant dimensions of sustainability. Ecological Economics, 55: 551–563. [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®]View all references), we propose to merge the measurements of the two intermediate composite indices (the Societal VI and the ICT-specific VI) to produce a mega-composite ICT resilience index. Finally, in this conceptual article, we assess how the factors that contribute to ICT vulnerability could possibly be used to prescribe an ameliorative resilience regime that may assist in bolstering disaster preparedness in SIDS and, simultaneously, increase their ability to compete globally.
... Taking the number of people affected, if it is known, seems to be a better approach, but people may be more or less severely affected. Indicators of the average proportion of the population affected by these events can be used, specific to the way in which the population is affected (killed, displaced) (Atkins, Mazzi, and Ramlogan 1998). 17 The percentage of population displaced due to natural disasters (homeless index) has been retained as a component of EVI only since 2003, when comparable data became available. ...
... 19. The exports-to-GDP ratio has, however, been used in several attempts to measure economic vulnerability (for instance, Atkins, Mazzi, and Ramlogan 1998;Briguglio 1995;Crowards 1999;Easter 1998). ...
... 23. Another example of an econometric weighting is given by the Commonwealth Secretariat index of vulnerability (Atkins, Mazzi, and Ramlogan 1998;Easter 1998). This index is an estimated value of instability of the rate of growth, with three explanatory variables empirically chosen from among many (more than fifty), which reflect policy factors as well as structural factors. ...
Cet article est la présentation réalisée lors de la Conférence Annuelle de la Banque sur l'Économie du Développement (ABCDE).
... The components of the EVI have been retained so that they reflect the main channels through which structural vulnerability affects growth potential. 13 There are in the literature several previous attempts to propose a composite indicator of economic vulnerability, in particular Briguglio (1995) ,Atkins et al (1998), Crowards (1999 the impact of the exchange rate regime on output volatility, beside that of exogenous factors such as the instability of the terms of trade. ...
... Moreover specific problems arise to aggregate vulnerability indicators, which must be addressed in any case. 18 Another example of an econometric weighting is given by the Commonwealth Secretariat index of vulnerability (Atkins and Mazzi 1998, Easter 1999). It is an estimated value of instability of the rate of growth, with three explanatory variables empirically chosen among a lot (more than fifty), which reflect policy factors as well as structural factors. ...
As an answer to a need expressed by the UN General Assembly an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) has been defined by the Committee for Development Policy. The present paper, which refers to this index, first examines how a structural economic vulnerability index can be designed, in particular for low income countries: it recalls the conceptual and empirical grounds of such an index, considers the structure of the present EVI, its sensitivity to methodological choices about averaging, as well as related possible improvements, and briefly compares levels and trends of EVI in various groups of countries, using a new data base of a "retrospective EVI". In a second part the paper examines how EVI can be used for international development policy, underlining two main purposes. The first one, for which EVI has been initially designed at the UN, is the identification of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), allowed to receive some preferential treatment in aid and trade matters: EVI is, with income per capita and human capital, one of the three complementary criteria a country needs to meet to be included into the list of LDCs and consequently cannot be considered alone to avoid a graduation from the list. A second use would be to retain EVI as a criterion for aid allocation between developing countries, besides other and traditional criteria: we argue that such an inclusion is legitimate both for effectiveness and equity reasons. These two purposes are presented as complementary.
... Indeed, vulnerability results from exposure to shocks that do not depend on the economy, whereas resilience is explained in terms of the capacity to withstand a shock. The work of , inspired by the empirical reviews of Atkins et al., (1998), has integrated into the consideration of economic resilience variants such as 161 161 macroeconomic stability, market efficiency and governance of sub-Saharan African countries. ...
This paper analyzes the effects of procyclical regulatory capital adjustments on the ability of CEMAC economies to recover from the COVID-19. To achieve the objective, it uses quarterly data from 2005 to 2020 and Generalized Least Squares estimators as a technique. The results obtained show that the severity of the COVID-19 significantly impacted the economies of the sub-region and their ability to be resilient. Further, the results are robust regardless of the economic resilience indicator considered. Pro-cyclical capital adjustments in the pandemic context have a positive impact on resilience, thereby reducing exposure to economic vulnerabilities. It is advisable to promote countercyclical adjustments of regulatory capital to improve economic resilience. This is regardless the fact that under COVID-19, economic contractions may induce banks to adopt more pro-cyclical behavior in order to reduce the vulnerability of economies.
... Another approach was based on the use of regression and was earlier proposed by Wells (1997) and used by Atkins et al. (1998Atkins et al. ( , 2000. They took GDP volatility as a proxy for vulnerability. ...
The objectives of this study are to measure and analyse the resilience of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) economies between 2006 and 2015. Our methodology is that of the B2A algorithm and the graph theory. This study highlights two main results: firstly, results from 22 SSA countries show that very few show characteristics of a stable resilience, while most of these countries are still in a condition of uncontrolled vulnerability (or very fragile). Secondly, the South African economies show the highest resilience, though unstable, Central Africa and East Africa economies show a situation of controlled vulnerability, while the West African economies are the most fragile, though heterogeneous. Looking at country specificities, Cameroon, South Africa and Botswana are the only three countries in the sub-region to have maintained a stable situation of resilience. The policy implications of this study engage the SSA countries on the need to further enhance their macroeconomic policies especially policies that improve the contingent dimensions of resilience. These include improvement in political governance, fiscal sustainability and external balances. Policies which are growth driven are encouraged; this will lead to job creation, human development and, as a result, reduction in the social vulnerability. Moreover, natural resource exports revenues should be invested into other economic sectors to support long-term diversification and consequently resilience.
... The major adaptive response will be the breeding of heat and drought resistant crop varieties by utilizing genetic resources that may be better adapted to new climatic and atmospheric conditions. Atkins et al. (1998) in a study on the calculated methodology for measurement of vulnerability and how to construct a suitable composite vulnerability index for developing countries suggested that small states are more prone to vulnerability when compared to large states. On the other hand, Handmer et al. (1999) examined the coping mechanisms to environmental shock or hazard brought about by biophysical vulnerability. ...
Little scientific evidence exists in the context of climate variability and food crop production in Ndu. This study seeks to assess the impact of rainfall variability on food crop vulnerability in Ndu Sub-Division. The primary data were gotten through field surveys. A total of 200 farmers were sampled and questionnaires were administered to them. Descriptive and inferential statistical techniques were employed to analyze the data. Results were presented in tables and climographs. Formulated hypotheses were tested using the least square regression model to establish the extent of exposure and sensitivity of rainfall variability on food crop production. The Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient was used to describe the trends of variations in rainfall. Statistically, rainfall accounted for 19.5% of variability in maize production while 50.87% accounted for variability in beans production. Furthermore, 30.1% accounted for variations in potatoes production. From these statistics it was then concluded that rainfall variability minimally affects maize and beans but had a significant effect on maize production in Ndu. The research study also revealed that rainfall shows a decreasing trend. The study recommended, amongst others the need for farmers to adopt more sustainable agricultural practices and the increased use of more resistant crop species that can withstand exposure and sensitivity to rainfall variability. The study concluded that a bottom-up approach should be employed in order to improve on the adaptive capacities of the agricultural sector in Ndu.
... If there is an absence of institutional capacity in terms of knowledge about the event and ability to deal with it, then such high vulnerability is likely to result in biophysical risk turning into an impact on the human population. Atkins et al. (1998) studied the methodology for measurement of vulnerability and construction of a suitable composite vulnerability index for developing countries and island states. The composite vulnerability indices were presented for a sample of 110 developing countries for which appropriate data was available. ...
... A research work was carried out by Atkins et al. (1998) calculated the methodology for measurement of vulnerability and to construction of a suitable composite vulnerability index for developing countries and island states. The composite vulnerability indices were presented for a sample of 110 developing countries for which appropriate data were available. ...
Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on climate and weather conditions. Climate change is a main challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for millions of people in India. Among India's population of more than one billion people, about 68% are directly or indirectly involved in the agricultural sector. This sector is particularly vulnerable to present-day climate variability. In this paper an attempt is made to map and analyze the vulnerability to climate change in different districts of four south Indian states: Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. We have taken five sources of vulnerability indicators: socio-demographic, climatic, agricultural, occupational and common property resources vulnerabilities to compute the composite vulnerability index. The composite vulnerability index suggests that, Adilabad, Chamarajanagar, Thiruvarur and Kasaragod are the most vulnerable districts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala respectively, whereas Hyderabad, Belgaum, Thoothukkudi, Kottayam are the least vulnerable districts.
... If there is an absence of institutional capacity in terms of knowledge about the event and ability to deal with it, then such high vulnerability is likely to result in biophysical risk turning into an impact on the human population. Atkins et al. (1998) studied the methodology for measurement of vulnerability and construction of a suitable composite vulnerability index for developing countries and island states. The composite vulnerability indices were presented for a sample of 110 developing countries for which appropriate data was available. ...
... Small states are deemed to be more economically vulnerable due to certain inherent characteristics which include: remoteness from larger markets and insularity which translate into higher transportation costs, increasing the cost of production and making local produce less competitive; a small internal market resulting in a lesser probability for exploiting economies of scale; both the private and public sectors suffer from indivisibilities resulting in higher per unit costs; due to lack of internal resources there is a higher dependence on imports and exports meaning that the smaller the economy the more likely it is to be open; a heavier dependence on foreign financing (whether foreign direct investment or external capital) coupled with the fact that this comes at greater difficulty as small states are considered as carrying a higher risk; for countries in temperate regions there are additional natural disasters of earthquakes and cyclones; man-made problems related with rising water levels; and political considerations of security, defence, clout, powerlessness and insignificance in the international sphere. All these disadvantages have propagated a mass of literature surrounded around the concept of vulnerability, resulting in various authors and institutions devising and developing a "Vulnerability Index" (Briguglio 1995, Atkins et al. 1998, Commonwealth Secretariat 1998, United Nations 2000, Briguglio and Galea 2003. ...
It is often taken for granted that living on a small island -geographically cut off from continental economic life -has to be a disadvantage. The two main reasons are small size and islandness. It is claimed that this disadvantage is due to diseconomies of scale, higher per unit transportation costs, increased volatility because of the openness of the economy, indivisibilities in both the public and private sector and limited local resources. Yet various empirical studies have shown that islandness as a variable does not appear to affect the growth and development of some small islands. Other studies maintain that in terms of GDP per capita, six out of the ten richest countries have populations below l million, while three more have less than 7 million people. Therefore, both size and islandness are not seen as affecting economic growth. Can we locate a paradox in these two opposing views? The paper tries to show that this apparent success is only because these small islands have managed to sidestep this "natural" disadvantage of size and insularity, by orientating their development strategies on economic activity that is not eroded by transportation costs, therefore focusing more on invisibles, rather than visible goods. Moreover, some countries have skimmed over the industrialization phase and concentrated more on the services sector. Some countries have also been aided by trade preferences and the non-regulation of certain international activity, especially in the financial sector.
... Another way to weight the components would be to estimate their impact on poverty change, but comparable statistics of poverty reduction are not available on a very large sample of countries. Another example of an econometric weighting can be given by the Commonwealth Secretariat index of vulnerability (several versions have been presented including Atkins and Mazzi 1998, Easter 1999). It is an estimated value of instability of the rate of growth, with three explanatory variables empirically chosen among a lot (more than fifty), which reflect policy factors as well as structural factors. ...
This paper examines the relevance of the concept of economic vulnerability for low income countries, a topic of recent concern in several international bodies. It first proposes some conceptual clarifications and a method to build an internationally comparable indicator. Three factors of vulnerability are identified: shocks, exposure and resilience or capacity to react (the first two ones being more structural, the third one more related to policy). To measure the two main kinds of shocks (natural and external), proposed proxies are respectively the instability of agricultural production and the instability of the purchasing power of exports, while the (smallness of) the population size can be used as a proxy for (structural) exposure. To aggregate the various possible indicators of shocks and exposure in a composite index of structural economic vulnerability, weights can be drawn from their estimated impact on growth. Then selected issues related to the impact of vulnerability on growth are considered: "primary" instabilities (natural events, terms of trade, political troubles) are found to slow growth, more by their effect on the total factor productivity growth than on the rate of investment, to do so through "intermediate" instabilities (of the rate of investment and of the real exchange rate), and in agricultural economies through their impact at the farmer level. Besides its negative effects on growth, vulnerability is assumed to increase aid effectiveness: the more the recipient country is vulnerable the more aid contributes to growth. Implications are drawn for aid allocation and aid design.
Floods and drought have always been connected with extensive destruction and loss since the evolution of human culture. The intensity of these types of disasters is increasing day by day due to the massive increase in human development activities, which is also a significant factor behind climate change. Mainly, the coastal groups are always at risk of diverse lengthy-time period coastal risks like sea-degree upward thrust, changes in shoreline, and quick-term dangers like tsunami, cyclone and typhoon surge. If we are talking about the only flood, then, Flood vulnerability is very diverse, and multidimensional elements gain a vital significance nowadays. The different factors related to flood vulnerability are time and space related, so flood vulnerability assessment required in-depth knowledge of the study area. The present take a look at tried to make an try to present a hallmark based totally flood vulnerability evaluation for the Krishna river basin, liable to various natural risks, in particular cyclone and associated typhoon surges. In the present study, an integrated approach towards flood vulnerability assessment has been proposed, considering the physical, hydrological, environmental, and economic aspects of different regions of Andhra Pradesh. The findings of the study can be used to minimize the vulnerability and disaster risk for better sustainable development.
Este artículo busca determinar la posición cíclica de la política fiscal en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2015. Para este propósito, se utilizan tres variables: el gasto del gobierno, el déficit fiscal ajustado cíclicamente y la deuda pública. Como resultado de este ejercicio, se concluye que la política fiscal en Colombia mostró una posición procíclica y asimétrica, lo que quiere decir que esta herramienta de política económica actuó como un mecanismo desestabilizador de la demanda agregada y contribuyó así a amplificar los efectos generados por los ciclos externos. Por componentes del gasto, la variable con un sesgo mucho más marcado por el ciclo económico fue la inversión pública.
El objetivo de este estudio es cuantificar la vulnerabilidad externa de la economía colombiana para el lapso 1990-2015. Para alcanzar este propósito, se calcularon dos indicadores, tomando como referencia la propuesta de Abeles y Valdecantos (2016). A partir de los resultados encontrados, se evidenció que, durante el transcurso del periodo estudiado, la economía colombiana, durante el transcurso del periodo estudiado, incrementó tanto su vulnerabilidad real como la financiera. Frente a este hallazgo, se argumentó que la mayor vulnerabilidad externa de este país se explica por dos razones: a) la incapacidad de esta economía para modificar su modelo de inserción comercial basado en la explotación de los recursos naturales y b) el incremento de la dependencia del financiamiento externo.
In this study, vulnerability assessment of Manipur to flood was done using Iyengar and Sudarshan’s method (unequal weight method). For normalization of indicators, UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP 2006) was used. Further, regularized incomplete beta function calculator which was available online was used to classify the districts of Manipur based on the composite vulnerability index. The study showed that Churachandpur and Senapati have the highest VIs and lie in the zone of very high vulnerability followed by Thoubal which lie in the high vulnerability zone. This may be because these districts are low on adaptive capacity indicators with moderate on exposure indicators. Bishnupur, Imphal-west, and Ukhrul are least vulnerable to flood followed by Chandel, Imphal-east, and Tamenglong in the vulnerability.
Uttarakhand, a Himalayan state in India, has more than 80% of its area in the hilly regions. Owing to its hilly nature, the state is suffering from different natural calamities such as flash floods and landslides. For mitigating the impact of these natural calamities, the evaluation of the vulnerability of the state is necessary. As such, the primary objective of this study is to prepare a districtwise integrated flood vulnerability map of the state considering social, economic, and environmental factors along with the hydrological factors. The integrated flood vulnerability was estimated and mapped to classify the priority regions of the state for the identification of hot spots in terms of flooding and other disasters. The model incorporated all the factors under different heads such as exposure, susceptibility, and resilience. Moreover, climate change will alter the hydrological factor associated with the vulnerability index. As such, the impact of climate change on integrated flood vulnerability under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios is also evaluated. The evaluation of the results shows that a significant part of the state, around 60%, can be categorized as high vulnerable under the RCP8.5 scenario. The study shows that 20% of the area of the state will be under the shallow and low-risk zone. The district-level flood vulnerability maps prepared under the study should be useful for decision-makers in the planning and implementation of the different disaster mitigation plans of the state.
A specialist in non-traditional security issues in China and Southeast Asia outlines a new approach to investigating the emerging issue of water security in East Asia. The author develops a composite vulnerability index linking water availability with economic and social conditions, and applies the index to assess the effects of water supply constraints on 26 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The paper demonstrates that the index provides useful insights for further analyses, although additional work is needed before it can be considered fully reliable for forecasting purposes.
This paper relies on the ‘institutional debt rule’ implemented in Franc Zone countries to assess whether the structural vulnerability of these countries matter for their probability to enter into excessive indebtedness. This structural vulnerability is measured by retrospective ‘Economic Vulnerability Index’ (EVI) recently computed jointly by the United Nations and Guillaumont and Cariolle (2011). We observe evidence that the impact of ‘EVI’ is non-linear with respect to the probability of these countries to engage into excessive indebtedness and that, this effect appears to be the same for the two monetary areas belonging to the CFA Franc Zone countries: a rise of EVI induces a higher probability of excessive debt and for higher EVI, this probability declines. Consequently, international community and more particularly international development institutions such as the Bretton Woods should take into account such vulnerability in their assessment of the adequate development policies and recommendations to these countries.
Human Vulnerability may be defined as an internal risk factor associated with any human subject or system that is exposed
to a hazard and corresponds to its intrinsic societal predisposition to be affected, or to be susceptible to damage, loss and
effect. In general, the term of ‘‘vulnerability’’ is currently being used to refer to a latent danger embedded in human
society. In this connection, the present paper pays attention to Block wise assessment of social contexts of human
vulnerability in Paschim Medinipur Distrct, W.B in the light of regional space economy relations. The study is based on
block wise secondary data drawn from the District Human Development Report: Paschim Medinipur (2011).It has been
attempted to follow the methodology used in UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP, 2006) to normalize the
selected parameters. Before doing this, the functional relationship between the indicators and human vulnerability have
been identified. Eventually, we consider more than two components; therefore, component wise rankings can be used to
test the unanimity among the components in ranking blocks. This can be accomplished by applying Kendall’s coefficient of
concordance (0.37) and chi-square statistic (80.09), which is not significant and implying that the rankings have no
concordance. Result shows that Jamboni block is more vulnerable (0.81) and followed by Nayagram (0.65), Binpur-I
(0.64) and so on. On the other hand, Daspur-II (0.05) is least vulnerable followed Daspur-I (0.19) and Ghatal (0.30).
In spite of the wide diversity in the economic performance of small island developing states (SIDS), the apparent prosperity of several SIDS has entailed a global misrepresentation of the economic situation of these countries. While their vulnerability to natural disasters is not denied, the general risk of economic marginalization that many SIDS face in the context of globalization may not have received sufficient attention. The paper attempts to highlight what matters most in the consideration of the economic vulnerability of SIDS and in the debate to prevent their marginalization. It examines the main types of external shocks to which SIDS are vulnerable, and discusses the economic handicaps that are fundamental causes of this vulnerability. Economic specialization (with the predominance of international trade in services) is then a central notion in the analysis of island vulnerability: a better specialization, which may involve diversification and always implies greater international competitiveness, can reduce the exposure or vulnerability of SIDS to external shocks, and induce greater economic stability in these countries. Hence the importance of developing policies to circumvent the specific handicaps of islands and facilitate the realization of new trading opportunities through an emulative use of globalization forces.
Résumé: Alors qu'après une longue période de stagnation la croissance semble être revenue en Afrique, la question se pose de savoir si la nouvelle croissance africaine est durable. Cet article examine dans quelle mesure la croissance africaine est vulnérable aux chocs exogènes et quelles en sont les implications pour le financement internatìonal du développement. It montre en premier lieu la persistance de la vulnérabilité des économies africaines au regard de l'indice de vulnérabilitééconomique des Nations unies (EVI), utilisant une première série rétrospective de cet indice. En second lieu, s'appuyant sur divers travaux récents, il souligne l'importance de la vulnérabilité structurelle pour la croissance et le développement, particullèrement en Afrique. Enfin il examine le rôle du financement international pour réspondre à la vulnérabilité des économies africaines, suggérant de faire de la vulnérabilité structurelle un des critères d'allocation de l'aide de d'adapter les modailités de l'aide pour lui faire jouer de façon efficace un rôle d'assurance.
Abstract: While after a long stagnation growth seems to have come back in Africa, the issue remains to know whether the new African growth is sustainable. This paper examines to what extent African growth is vulnerable to exogeneous shocks and what are the implications for international developement finance. First it evidences the persistent vulnerability of African economies with regard to the U.N. Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), using a first retrospective series of that index. Second, relying on several recent works, it unerlines that structural vulnerability matters, in particular in Africa. Finally it considers how international development finance can be used to face the vulnerability of African economies, suggesting to use structural vulnerability as one of the aid allocation criteria and to adopt modalities of aid so that it can effectively serve as an insurance.
The attractiveness of a region for touristic activities depends strongly on the local weather and climate. This paper analyses
the vulnerability of the beach tourism sector towards climate change by means of an index approach on a country level. A vulnerability
framework for the tourism sector is developed and on its basis, indicators are defined for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity. A transparent index approach, including a robustness analysis with multiple transformation methods and weighting
sets, yields an assessment of the overall relative vulnerability of the beach tourism sector in 51 countries. Aggregate results
on an annual level are presented as a starting point for a more detailed comparison of countries based on the individual indicators.
The important limitations regarding the availability of accurate indicators as well as the concept of vulnerability itself
are discussed. Despite these limitations, the present study contributes to integrating the numerous direct as well as indirect
effects climate change may have on beach tourism.
In response to a need expressed by the UN General Assembly, an Economic Vulnerability index (EVI) has been defined by the Committee for Development Policy. The present paper, which refers to this index, first examines how a structural EVI can be designed for low-income countries in particular. It recapitulates the conceptual and empirical grounds of the index, considers the structure of the present EVI, its sensitivity to methodological choices with respect to averaging, as well as possible improvements in this regard, and briefly compares the levels and trends of EVI in various country groups, using a new database from a “retrospective EVI”. The paper examines how the EVI can be used for international development policy, underlining two main purposes. The first—the purpose for which the EVI was initially designed—is the identification of the least-developed countries (LDCs) that are eligible to receive some preferential treatment in aid and trade matters. The EVI, in addition to income per capita and human capital, is one of three complementary criteria a country needs to meet in order to be designated as an LDC, and consequently it cannot be the sole criterion for countries wishing to avoid graduating from the LDC list. Second, the EVI can be used, in addition to other traditional measures, as a criterion for aid allocation between developing countries. It is argued that such an inclusion is legitimate for reasons of both effectiveness and equity. The two purposes are presented as complementary.
This paper is concerned with the relationship between economic growth in small states and their vulnerability. A critical argument in much of the literature on small states, particularly small island states, is that their growth performance is greatly constrained by their vulnerability to exogenous shocks because of their size. These shocks include economic, political and environmental factors, which together dampen the long-run growth rate of these economies. The paper makes use of a global small state data set and appropriate quantitative techniques to test the relationship between growth and vulnerability using the results of Briguglio's Vulnerability Index. The results highlight some of the conceptual shortcomings in the analytical literature on small states, particularly islands, as well as suggesting that the Vulnerability Index is mis-specified. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Macro vulnerability of the small island developing states (SIDS) as well as of least developed countries (LDCs) has been an increasing concern for the international community. This concern has led to the creation of the economic vulnerability index (EVI) in order to assess comparatively the degree of structural economic vulnerability of countries. Structural vulnerability results mainly from natural or external shocks faced by countries, and their exposure to these shocks. General vulnerability, on the other hand, depends on the resilience of the country which is determined mainly by policy. We first explain how vulnerability affects growth and development, particularly in small developing countries, by considering the consequences of the size of shocks, the exposure to shocks and the consequences of resilience. The channels of transmission are also explored in an attempt to explain how instability slows down poverty reduction not only directly but also through lower growth. We also examine how the EVI, as a synthetic measure of structural vulnerability, has been designed and how it can be used to compare ...
Macro vulnerability of poor countries is analyzed as the risk that their development be hampered by the shocks they face, natural or external. Structural vulnerability mainly results from the size of the shocks and the exposure to the shocks, while general vulnerability also depends on resilience, mainly determined by policy.
We first explain how, through instability, vulnerability affects growth and development, arguing four main points. The ex post effects are at least as important as the ex ante or risk effects. Instability affects productivity growth more than the level of investment. Primary or exogeneous instabilities lower growth through intermediate and policy related instabilities. Instability increases the level of poverty (and child mortality), beyond its effects through the rate of growth.
Second we examine how a synthetic measure of structural vulnerability can be obtained in an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), as that developed at the UN. The components of such an index should reflect both the size of the natural and external shocks and the exposure to these shocks. They should be aggregated so that the interaction between shocks and exposure could be taken into account.
The last part considers the implications of the macro vulnerability of poor countries for aid policy. It relies on the view that aid dampens consequences of vulnerability (i.e. vulnerability increases aid effectiveness) and that the aid volatility issue must be reexamined with this regard. Three aid responses are considered. Vulnerability (EVI) can be used as a criterion for aid allocation. Aid can be designed as an insurance, if it can be disbursed quickly and effectively. Finally, aid uses can be partially targetted to the long-term reduction of vulnerability.
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