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Water and Energy Crisis in Central Asia
Abstract
A Cold Winter in Central Asia After a very cold winter in Central Asia in 2007-2008 followed by a dry spring and summer, the water and energy situation in the region is critical and political relations strained. The situation is so serious that it was addressed to at an extraordinary meeting of Central Asian Heads of State held in Bishkek early in October 2008. The extensive use of hydropower in Kyrgyzstan during the winter resulted in a very low level of water in the major Toktogul Reservoir on the Naryn, a principal tributary of the Syr Darya. As a consequence, the downstream countries Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have not received as much water from the Syr Darya for irrigation in the spring and summer as they need. The winter also had severe consequences in energy-poor Tajikistan, with significant losses of lives and livestock. Basic services such as heating and water supply were not available for days even in the capital, Dushanbe. This was the coldest winter in several decades, and demonstrated the need to develop reliable energy supplies. Further significant power shortages are expected in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over the forthcoming winter.
... Firstly, the dissolution of the Soviet Union resulted in decreased or stabilizing irrigation water use, as noted above. Secondly, such water transfers would have now required transboundary negotiations between countries, which is still a difficult political issue today [74]. Finally, it became more widely accepted that water does need to be left for ecosystem services (including intrinsic cultural value) [73]. ...
... It is estimated based on power production for specific technological plant types and cooling systems. Its trend over time is therefore likely explained by changes in demand for thermo-electric power, corresponding to the expansion and contraction of the economy, and increased reliance on hydro-electric power [74]. While consumptive use is small, fossil fuels and thermoelectric power plants are associated with a number of problems with water, soil, and air pollution [61]. ...
... Additionally, it is difficult to attribute evaporation from these dams to a particular sector. The dams are used for multiple purposes, supplying irrigation water, producing hydropower, and regulating floods [24,74]. There is no reason to attribute consumption to one sector over another from a mass conservation point of view, though it has been suggested that consumption could be allocated based on the ecosystem service benefits produced by each sector [77]. ...
The complex relationships within the water-energy-food security nexus tend to be place-specific, increasing the importance of identifying transferable principles to facilitate implementation of a nexus approach. This paper aims to contribute transferable principles by using global model data and concepts to illustrate and analyze the water history of Central Asia. This approach builds on extensive literature about Central Asia and global change as well as recent advances in global water modeling. Decadal water availability and sectorial water consumption time series are presented for the whole 20th century, along with monthly changes in discharge attributable to human influences. Concepts from resilience and socio-ecological system theory are used to interpret the results and identify five principles relevant to managing the transboundary nexus: (1) the subsystems included/excluded from the nexus are case-specific and should be consciously scrutinized; (2) consensus is needed on what boundaries can acceptably be crossed within the nexus; (3) there is a need to understand how reducing trade-offs will modify system dependencies; (4) global stakeholders have both a responsibility and right to contribute to the shaping of the nexus; (5) combining data with global and local perspectives can help to enhance transferability and understanding of shared problems in our globalized world.
... На территории Республики Узбекистан эксплуатируется одна из сложнейших инженерно-ирригационных инфраструктур мира. Водные ресурсы водохранилищ являются стратегическими ресурсами для устойчивого развития Республики в период наблюдаемых маловодий и геополитической обстановкой в сфере трансграничного управления водными ресурсами в Среднеазиатском регионе [6,7,15,20,25,30,39,41,48,98]. ...
... Almost all the hydraulic infrastructures in Uzbekistan, but particularly dams and their associated water reservoirs, are aging (constructed during the 1930-1940 period) [25]. Thus, there is some urgency to perform operations that would improve the safety of such structures in order to avoid devastating emergency situations in the event of technical operational failures or natural phenomena, such as earthquakes. ...
... However, the situation has significantly changed due to the end of the former Soviet Union. During 1990 to 2000, summer releases declined to 45% and winter releases increased to 55% of the annual discharges [25]. ...
Sedimentation processes in man-made water reservoirs reduce their main asset: the volume storage capacity. This raises engineering, environmental and economic issues for the communities around the world and in particular for the areas affected by strong water deficit. Because of Uzbekistan's arid climatic conditions and uneven spatial and temporal water resources distribution, responsive and innovative water availability assessment surveys of all major water reservoirs are required. Bathymetric survey is a traditional method that is carried out for the estimation of reservoir volumes and surface areas for the corresponding reservoir stages in order to assess the water availability. Volume and surface area differences derived from multiple surveys of a reservoir provide storage loss estimates over time due to sedimentation. However, two main factors such as intensive field data measurement and post data-processing often limit the frequency of these surveys. Alternatively, innovative depth measurement technologies coupled with contouring and surface mapping programs provide automated reservoir volume and surface area calculations. This significantly reduces time, work load and financial burdens for reservoir sedimentation projects. This study deals with the use of a geostatistical approach to assess the reservoir sedimentation in the Akdarya reservoir in Uzbekistan. Geostatistical approach includes (semi-) variogram analysis and interpolation (kriging and simulations (turning bands)) techniques predicting values at unsampled locations for generating digital bathymetric surface models of reservoir bottom conditions in order to calculate volume and surface area at given water elevation. Simulation enables to have range of reservoir volumes and surface areas with the same probability in comparison to the kriging and traditional methods. This gives a real estimation of the water resource availability for operators and managers to sustainably manage natural resources and hydraulic infrastructure.
... In the case of Uzbekistan, it has a comparative and competitive advantage on agriculture in comparison to its neighboring countries. Agriculture remained the most dominant sector in the economy until 2001 [28], while the livestock industry was a dominant contributor (40%) to the Uzbek gross agricultural output [29]. The main characteristic of the sector is that most livestock production originates in small so-called dehkan farms. ...
... Almost all farmers in the Aral Sea Basin are grid-connected since agricultural production is widely dependent on electricity consumption, with electric pumping-based surface irrigation being the most energy-intensive process. Electricity supply is highly unreliable and the grid often overloaded [28]. Like other emerging economies, grid connection to sell the generated green energy is at an early development stage. ...
Energy plays an essential role in the modern society and can serve as one of the vital parameters of socio-economic development. Despite developments in technology, over three billion persons living in rural parts of the low- and middle-income countries continue to cover their energy needs for cooking through traditional ways by burning biomass resources. This paper as a case study focuses on the Aral Sea region of Uzbekistan, possessing a well-developed agricultural production with high livestock numbers and intensive crop production. The manure of the livestock farms is not used efficiently and the energy supply of the farms depends primarily on centrally produced gas and electricity. Some areas are not yet connected to the gas grid. Agriculture causes huge environmental damages in its current form. The benefit of biogas production would therefore be fivefold: (1) local energy source, (2) mitigation of environmental impacts, (3) reducing CH4-emissions, (4) producing organic fertilizer as a side product and (5) additional earnings for farmers.
... Table Table Table Table 2 [30], EIA [31], Eurasian Coal Portal [29], Kabutov (2008) [32], USGS (1997) [33] The proved hydrocarbon reserves made Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan the center of geopolitical interests for different countries who want to address their own energy security issues [34][35][36][37][38][39]. Meanwhile, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan heavily rely on their hydropower that accounts for about 90% of the regional potential, and this creates heated political water-food-energy disputes with downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan [40][41]. Attempts to create a regional water management structure in the form of barter for oil and gas for increased water discharge to downstream countries have not been very successful [42]. ...
... Several regions, particularly the southern region, rely on energy sources imported from other regions or from abroad. The environmental impacts of thermal power plants are usually dominated by the fuel production and combustion [41]. Regional fuel mix, hence, environmental burdens, air pollution in particular, vary region-to-region. ...
Expected ratification of Paris agreement by the government of Kazakhstan requires stronger commitments on GHG emissions reduction and low carbon development. The government has already made significant process in developing policies aiming at low carbon development. However, the effectiveness of the policies is questionable as they contradict the development path of Kazakhstan based on energy intense extractive industries with high environmental impact. It is important to understand the incompatibility of current economic system with a green growth strategy of Kazakhstan. This work is designed to evaluate the causes of policy incompatibility by application of a multi-stage system approach research framework. The main objective of the study is to understand the causes of contradictions between national plans on expansion of carbon intense, commodity export-dependent economy and Kazakhstan’s green growth strategy. It is important to fully understand the environmental, energy and economic risks in Kazakhstan, as well as contradictions between energy, environmental and economic development strategies of the country.
At the country level economy, energy and the environment nexus in Kazakhstan is assessed. The relationships between CO2 emissions, energy, and real output are modeled between 1990 and 2012. Furthermore, the mechanisms of the Dutch disease in the period 1993-2013 are tested. Sector level assessment explains the contribution of different industries to CO2 emissions over independence period. The analysis explores the factors affecting emissions of the industry sector. It also helps to define the industry with highest environmental impact. Assessment of power industry is carried out at the industry level. The structure of the industry as well as its environmental impact is analyzed using the LCA methodology. On top of that, the presence of the relationship between coal production and respiratory health is tested. Resource potential and environmental improving effect of wind power technologies in Kazakhstan are assessed. The cost of wind power production is also estimated. Additionally, assessment of candidate sites using multi-criteria approach is performed. Kazakh Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the focus the policy level research. Principles and approaches of Green Growth Strategy and ETS strategy are described. Furthermore, the impact of ETS on industrial energy intensities is analyzed. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique is used to estimate required energy intensity improvement in order to meet ETS emission targets.
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... • One set of sources refers to the transboundary character of water resources in Central Asia (e.g. Libert et al. 2008 ;Dukhovny and de Schutter 2011 , p. 280;Eschment 2011 ;Wegerich et al. 2012 ). After the breakdown of the Soviet Union, the then-Soviet provinces became independent states. ...
... After the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, the former provinces became independent states. Although the existing rules governing water allocation between the Central Asian states were safeguarded by means of the 1992 "Agreement on Cooperation in Joint Management, Use and Protection of Interstate Sources of Water Resources" (Libert et al. 2008 , p. 11), the water situation changed dramatically because the Central Asian states acted independently, following their own interests (Libert et al. 2008 ;Sehring 2009 ). The upstream users did not allocate suffi cient water to the downstream users in the summertime, while the energy provision from downstream to upstream users in the wintertime was no longer guaranteed. ...
Water pricing is seen as an important element in efficient water resource management. By providing information about water resource scarcity, water prices can make explicit the value of water and can set adequate incentives for water users to use water more sustainably. However, designing efficient water resource pricing schemes is dependent on many prerequisites that are hard to fulfil. In this chapter, we contrast the prerequisites of water pricing with real-world contexts in the Fergana Valley. We show that many prerequisites for water pricing are not met in this area, so that water pricing reforms are unable to perform the functions usually associated with water prices. Nevertheless, it is possible to articulate a number of steps toward a reform of the agricultural sector which may at least point the way towards a more sustainable use of water resources.
... It has been postulated that the expected river runoff reductions will be higher in the Amu Darya Basin (10-15 %) than in the Syr Darya Basin (6-10 %; EDB and EC IFAS 2009). The use and expansion of upstream water reservoirs and dams to meet electric power demands during the harsh winters are likely to further increase upstream water storage during summer periods but in turn reduce water supply for downstream irrigation and ecosystems (Libert et al. 2008;Rakhmatullaev et al. 2010a;Eshchanov et al. 2011;Dukhovny and de Schutter 2011;Bekchanov et al. 2015c). For instance, when upstream dams would be developed as planned in Central Asia and used for increased hydropower production benefits, water releases for downstream countries could be reduced by as much as 8 km 3 (about 10 % of the total average annual river flow in the Amu Darya) during the growing season (Jalilov et al. 2011). ...
... Consent exists that the total water amounts in Central Asia, irrespective of being caused by natural or anthropogenic impact or both, will most likely decrease in the near future (Libert et al. 2008;Chub 2010;Eshchanov et al. 2011;Jalilov et al. 2011;Siegfried et al. 2012;Rakhmatullaev and Abdullaev 2014;Sorg et al. 2014). Subsequently, the countries on national level and the populations on local levels in Central Asia will have to be prepared to cope effectively with a predicted, permanent reduction in water supply. ...
Reduced river runoff and expected upstream infrastructural developments are both potential threats to irrigation water availability for the downstream countries in Central Asia. Although it has been recurrently mentioned that a reduction in water supply will hamper irrigation in the downstream countries, the magnitude of associated economic losses, economy-wide repercussions on employment rates, and degradation of irrigated lands has not been quantified as yet. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the economy-wide consequences of a reduced water supply in Uzbekistan—a country that encompasses more than half of the entire irrigated croplands in Central Asia. Modeling findings showed that a 10–20 % reduction in water supply, as expected in the near future, may reduce the areas to be irrigated by 241,000–374,000 hectares and may cause unemployment to a population of 712–868,000, resulting in a loss for the national income of 3.6–4.3 %. A series of technical, financial, and institutional measures, implementable at all levels starting from the farm to the basin scale, are discussed for reducing the expected water risks. The prospects of improving the basin-wide water management governance, increasing water and energy use efficiency, and establishing the necessary legal and institutional frameworks for enhancing the introduction of needed technological and socioeconomic change are argued as options for gaining more regional water security and equity.
... According to the agreement, purchases of energy and therefore water allocations from Toktogul are determined annually [76][77][78]. The implementation of the agreement has been seen as problematic in reference to water delivery to Kazakhstan [79,80] and as generally failed because of the late signing of annual bilateral agreements [78]. Overall, the primary focus of the international attempts to foster water security focused on the infrastructure controlling the main stem of the Syr Darya Basin, the Naryn, only [81]. ...
... Within the mid-stream irrigation district, the Dustlik canal is transboundary and shared between Uzbekistan at the head-end and Kazakhstan at the tail-end [79,80]. Within the Dustlik canal Uzbekistan irrigates 98 thousand ha and Kazakhstan 125 thousand ha. ...
The importance of water security has gained prominence on the international water agenda, but the focus seems to be directed towards water demand. An essential element of water security is the functioning of public organizations responsible for water supply through direct and indirect security approaches. Despite this, there has been a tendency to overlook the water security strategies of these organizations as well as constraints on their operation. This paper discusses the critical role of water supply in achieving sustainable water security and presents two case studies from Central Asia on the management of water supply for irrigated agriculture. The analysis concludes that existing water supply bureaucracies need to be revitalized to effectively address key challenges in water security.
... The entire SREB area is characterized by rainfall shortages and drought, and water resource shortages and poor water quality are prominent problems. Much of the land is situated in semiarid and arid regions, where the natural environment is highly vulnerable in terms of water resources (Libert et al., 2008). The water resources in the region are insufficient for agricultural irrigation, which weakens the local economy (Varis, 2014). ...
Introduction: In vulnerable environments, accurate and complete assessments of green water efficiency (GWE) must consider unexpected outputs.
Methods: This study employed the hyper-efficiency SBM-DEA model and SDM method to investigate the spatial heterogeneity and the determinants of GWE, respectively, in nine Chinese provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), which is characterized by a vulnerable ecological and economic system.
Results: Using data from 2008 to 2019, this study found that the green performance indicator varied in these provinces; GWE showed substantial spatial heterogeneity, with a negative spatial autocorrelation among the provinces with a low-to-high or high-to-low distribution. The southwest provinces had a higher GWE than the northwest, but there was no significant GWE improvement in the whole region. Both governmental engagement and environmental protection were the most influential determinants of GWE, which showed spatial spillover effects, followed by water pollution then economic growth, demonstrating that the GWE in vulnerable ecosystems may be changed by any factor depending on unexpected outputs.
Discussion: This study suggests that reducing the side effects of unexpected outputs in vulnerable environments, because the ecosystem will be redamaged by unexpected contaminants when improving the local GWE.
... Moreover, the distribution of surface water resources in CA is extremely uneven. In the Aral Sea basin, surface water resources of Tajikistan (TJK) and Kyrgyzstan (KGZ) in the upstream region account for 43.4% and 25.1% of the entire region, respectively, but actual water consumption is less than 10% of the total water consumption in the region; surface water resources of Kazakhstan (KAZ), Turkmenistan (TKM), and Uzbekistan (UZB) in the downstream account for approximately 30% of the entire region, but the total demand exceeds 85% of total water consumption [33]. KAZ, TKM, and UZB are rich in oil, natural gas, and coal, whereas KGZ and TJK rely mainly on hydroelectric power for energy. ...
Water, energy, food, and ecology play significant roles in poverty reduction, human well-being, and regional sustainable development. With the increasing demand for energy and food, environmental degradation, and increasing pressure on regional finite water resources, water-energy-food-ecology (WEFE) systems have been facing serious challenges in Central Asia. To address these challenges, it is necessary to understand and manage the WEFE nexus; thus, we explore the relationship between cross-sectoral pressures in this study. Based on the projection pursuit model and the virtual water trade concept, we comprehensively assess the WEFE system pressure and reveal the transmission of pressure. Finally, we develop a coordination mechanism to achieve the sustainable development of WEFE systems. The main results are as follows: (1) During 1992–2014, the comprehensive pressure level of the WEFE system showed a slightly upward trend, but there were significant differences between countries; (2) the pressures of cross-sectors are not only closely related but also transmittable. Unreasonable sectoral structure (crop planting, power generation and food import and export), spatial mismatch of resources and virtual water trade (especially for food trade) are important reasons for the pressure transfer within and across countries. And, (3) the proposed coordination mechanism optimizes the system structure, makes trade-offs and synergies for the interests of the sectors, and is more targeted. The integration of policies and regions is key to ensuring the smooth operation of the mechanism. This research can serve as a reference to achieve the coordinated development of WEFE systems in Central Asia.
... Change in political relations with far neighbors in the Caspian Sea basin, Far East, Balkans [14,40] 3 Strong political, economic, social, demographic, technological integration in Central Asia [3] 3 Nationalism policies of each CA countries weaken after regional integration [41] 4 A single unified network of sharing water and energy resources as it was in the Soviet Union [33] 4 Change in export/import, trade balance, public debt, currency appreciation/depreciation of each CA country [42] 5 ...
This paper focuses on regional integration through the lenses of the Water-Food-Energy (WEF) nexus, a concept putting strong emphasis on cross-sectoral and multi-level interactions as well as on resource interdependencies. There is an extensive amount of published research focusing on the Aral Sea basin. In this paper, the authors build upon these different contributions and provide a meta-analysis of the literature of WEF nexus opportunities in Central Asia (CA) countries. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions regarding how the WEF Nexus can represent an opportunity for reinforced collaboration regarding resources management. To do so, focusing on existing literature, this paper first (1) explores how the nexus can be a relevant instrument for regional integration. Second (2), it provides an overview of water, food, energy conditions and challenges in the Aral Sea basin in particular. Third (3), synthesizing existing research, the authors identify critical variables to be considered as hurdles or leverage points for WEF nexus implementation in the Aral Sea basin. Finally (4), we go back to our initial set of questions and identify some possible avenues for future research.
... The broader narratives on regional water governance vary: Since tensions between upstream and downstream riparians are largely grounded in the conflict between water use for agriculture (downstream countries) and water use for energy production (upstream countries), the water-energy nexus and the attempts for a coordinated governance approach to balance different interests are often the main focus (most prominently with the 1998 Syr Darya agreement that worked effectively only for a few years, see e.g. [42,16]). Some studies look at water cooperation from an economic perspective, often applying the benefit-sharing approach to Central Asia. ...
After the Central Asian republics became independent in 1991, the transformation process challenged water governance arrangements at all levels. Analysis of transboundary water governance has mainly found that cooperation has been prevailing over conflict. Much research is driven by the question how global concepts like IWRM or good water governance are implemented in the context of Central Asia; studies reveal how their inherent ideas of participation and transparency clash with local realities. Only few authors have focussed on national water governance. Their studies show how powerful actors either resist reforms or use them to secure or enhance their positions. A genuine focus on region-specific forms of water governance as well as on national politics is underrepresented in the literature, which is explained with funding policies and the restrictions of the authoritarian political regimes.
... Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, a centrally managed system that reconciled water, energy and food uses to meet the needs of all five republics was implemented (Karther et al., 2015(Karther et al., , 2017. The system, however, was viable only in the context of a centrally planned economy (Libert et al., 2008;Rakhmatullaev, Abdullaev and Kazbekov, 2017). Researchers identified three types of effort undertaken in the beginning of the 2000s within the national agendas of countries in the Aral Sea Basin region focusing: (1) on water; (2) on water and energy; and (3) on water, energy and agriculture (Kubo et al., 2009). ...
... 10 Another critical issue is the increasing natural resource constraints, particularly water, that countries in Central Europe currently face that in the context of increased trade is likely to increase resource use as well as tensions in sharing it (Li, Qian, Howard, & Wu, 2015). To elaborate, much of the overland silk-route would be over semi-arid and arid regions where the environment is vulnerable and water resources are under stress (Immerzeel, van Beek, & Bierkens, 2010;Libert, Orolbaev, & Steklov, 2008). The region is also subject to ecological disasters such as the Aral Sea Crisis due to human-lead contributions. ...
Economic trade theory suggests that the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) can lead to more trade and increases in welfare. However, this can also lead to various challenges. In this paper, we use recent literature in economics to identify three such challenges. The first is that there is increasing evidence of malinvestment in previous Chinese infrastructure investments, rising corporate debt and corruption. If the BRI worsens this phenomena, the consequent financial and economic crisis in China is likely to have serious contagion effects with global ramifications. Second, trade brings about winners and losers within a country and unless there is adequate redistribution of the gains within an economy it can lead to increased inequality, poverty and structural unemployment. Finally, there are negative consequences to the environment that trade expansion may bring about unless effective legal, political and economic institutions are in place addressing the issue.
... This in turn results in an increasing number of conflicts among the riparian states over their common water resources. Although conflicts over water sharing among the countries in Central Asia existed even before the 1990s, their escalation was restricted by the unified coordination and inter-country "water use-energy compensation" schemes, which, however, have gradually ceased Libert et al., 2008). ...
... The socialist legacy of water management controlled by central governments continues to influence the region's water sector. A very strong degree of integration of the water and energy sectors existed in the Middle Asian republics, where water allocation arrangements were mainly based on two complimentary considerations: The central government in Moscow (1) allocated and strictly controlled water provisions to the Middle Asian republics and (2) planned the delivery of energy to the Kyrgyz and Tajik Soviet Republics during the winter (Libert et al. 2008). While water management in the Soviet era was seen as efficient due to clearly regulated interactions between water authorities and water user throughout the region, a strong centralization of the water-apportioning process often failed to take into account recommendations and demands of local administrations. ...
Central Asia contains one of the largest internal drainage basins in the world, and its continental location results in limited availability of both surface and ground- water. Since the twentieth century, water resources of the region have been exploited beyond sustainable levels. From small Mongolian headwater streams to the mighty Aral Sea, surface waters have been partially desiccated. Demands from the agricultural, energy and raw material sectors as well as population growth have not only increased water abstractions, but also left a diverse and strong pollution footprint on rivers, lakes and groundwater bodies. Such changes in water quantity and quality have not only led to a degradation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems, but also they have placed the region’s socioeconomic development at risk. Because of the com- plexity of Central Asia’s water problems, integrated assessment and management approaches are required. Despite some shortcomings in practical implementation, the widespread adoption of the Integrated Water Resources Management and water–food energy nexus approaches may be keys to a more sustainable future. This thematic issue aims to provide documentation of the current state of scientific knowledge, ranging from hydrological research to water quality investigations, and offers an assessment of ecosystems and the services provided by them. Reviews and case studies on different management options conclude the thematic issue by providing insights into field-tested solutions for the region’s water challenges.
... We were particularly interested in cases where sources of path dependency provided strong, moderate, and weak resistance to reallocate over a long period of time to understand how, under conditions with similar pressure, established institutional arrangements can resist reform in various ways. To understand the differences in these established institutional arrangements and their corresponding effects, dynamics in allocation decisions, protocols of meetings where watersharing agreements were reached, historical correspondence, reports on implementation, wider government documents such as laws, decrees, and basin management schemes, as well as broader literature reflecting the nature of riparian relationship in the Ferghana Valley and Central Asia (e.g., Bichsel, 2011;Bucknall et al., 2003;Djanibekov et al., 2016;Dukhovny and de Shutter, 2011;FAO, 2013;Libert et al., 2008;O'Hara, 2000;Sehring, 2009) were iteratively studied using an in-depth qualitative content analysis verified with information from key informants in the province water management departments. ...
The purpose of this article is to analyze how path dependency combined with socio-economic and techno-ecological characteristics can lead to varying degrees of change in riparian water allocation. A longitudinal comparative study of three cases from the Ferghana Valley, each with a distinct degree of path dependency, is presented to understand how riparian parties responded when they faced pressure to reallocate. Therewith we distinguish (a) drivers of pressure pushing toward a change from (b) sources of path dependency resisting a change. Establishing similarity in drivers of pressure across all three cases, we systematically study the varying impact of established institutional arrangements leading to strong, moderate, and weak resistance to a change. The analysis reveals three key sources of path dependency explaining the strength of resistance: (i) vested interests, (ii) infrastructure control, and (iii) network effects that form the so-called “baggage” in riparian relationships. We discuss the interplay among these sources and their corresponding impact on the short- and long-term outcomes. Overall, the study brings forward the importance of dealing with “baggage” in riparian relationships to be able to effectively respond to new challenges and implement reforms in a sustainable way.
... Such a large-scale project would bring profound economic prosperity to the entire region. However, much of the belt area in northwest China and Central Asia is in semi-arid and arid regions, where the natural environment is highly vulnerable and groundwater is a vital resource for various purposes (Li, Qian, Howard, & Wu, 2015;Libert, Orolbaev, & Steklov, 2008). Ensuring the development of the new Silk Road in a sustainable way implies that the management of the groundwater resource should be given considerable attention. ...
As a major challenge in building a new and sustainable Silk Road Economic Belt, threats induced by poor groundwater management have raised stress on the groundwater resources in the Yinchuan Plain, north-west China. In the present article, an overview of groundwater development in the plain, along with the associated negative effects, is provided. A fragmented management framework is found responsible for the poor groundwater management. Efficient and effective groundwater management will require proper attention of the local authorities to the inherent interaction among various water systems. Only with enhanced cooperation, an integrated monitoring network, strengthened scientific support and active public participation can the sustainability of groundwater management of the plain be achieved.
... Xinjiang is the center of the Silk Road economic belt, as an important bridge to connect China and Central Asia, and then to Europe (Abudureyimu and Han 2014). However, with the revival of the Silk Road and increase of population and human activities, it may lead to an increasing environmental pressure (e.g., water resources) in Xinjiang (Libert et al. 2008;Li et al. 2015a). Xinjiang is a typical inland arid area located in the northwest of China with dry climate, scarce rainfall, strong evaporation, and a shortage of water resources. ...
To study the organic pollution situation in groundwater in plain areas in Xinjiang, Shihezi region (SHZ), plain area of Yanqi Basin (YQ) and Ruoqiang-Qiemo area (RQ) were selected as the typical areas. 83 groundwater samples were collected, tested, and analyzed for 39 organic indexes for the first time. Results showed that the local groundwater in SHZ, YQ, and RQ had been slightly affected by organic pollution with the detection rates of 8.7, 33.3, and 33.3 %, respectively. Seven organic pollutants were detected, including chloroform (with the highest detection rate of 21.7 %), 1,2-dichloroethane, 1,2-dichlorobenzene, toluene, benzo(a)pyrene, α-BHC, and γ-BHC. The contents of all the detected organic pollutants were low, which were under the limits of the “Standards for Drinking Water Quality (GB5749-2006)”. Vertical distribution of detection rates was that in SHZ, shallow confined groundwater (12.5 %) > deep confined groundwater (10.0 %) > unconfined groundwater (0.0 %); in YQ, unconfined groundwater (66.7 %) > deep confined groundwater (29.2 %) > shallow confined groundwater (25.0 %); in RQ, shallow confined groundwater (66.7 %) > unconfined groundwater (33.3 %) > deep confined groundwater (16.7 %). The sources and properties of organic pollutants were the main factors that affected groundwater organic pollution in the study areas. The infiltration recharge of surface water mainly affected groundwater organic pollution in SHZ and YQ. Besides, the vadose zone had a certain restriction on the occurrence and migration of groundwater organic pollution components in RQ. Direct discharge of sewage came from human life and production without treatment, and leakage due to crude anti-seepage facilities had led to groundwater organic pollution. The organic wastewater produced in livestock and poultry breeding, chemical fertilizers, and insecticides in agricultural activities were also the main sources of groundwater organic pollution.
... The United Nation's (UN) overarching goal is to secure sustainable water for all, due to the role of water in ensuring people's health, prosperity, resilient communities, equitable societies and protected ecosystems, which in turn are the basis of sustainable development [49]. Nevertheless, this cannot be realized without universal access to water, its sustainable management and effective governance [50]. Water management is also a serious problem in Eastern Asia, where a number of problems, compounding the issue include but not limited to floods, increased salinization and a loss of fresh water reserves due to agriculture along with pollution from sewage and industry have severely damaged the water supply with dangerous effects on the health of local people [51]. ...
Water is an essential element for life, and development would not be possible without its availability. This study identified the main water consumers and their likely impact on water lake level for the case of Issyk-Kul Lake Basin, Kyrgyzstan. Data on precipitation, lake level, irrigation, household and industrial water consumption from 1980 to 2014 were provided by the Department of Water Resources and Irrigation, Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation of the Kyrgyz Republic. The input data was analyzed with OriginPro 8.5 for Statistical Analysis. The results indicated a decreasing irrigation water consumption from 2029.42 to 461.76 million·m3 in 1980 and 2014, respectively. Likewise, households consumed 27.02 million·m3 in 1980 falling to 16.55 million·m3 in 2014, similar to the manufacture’s water consumption. However, it was noted that agriculture is a high water consumer, whose water demand for irrigation rises from April to August, the period during which the precipitation also increases. Nevertheless, manufactures and household water consumption do not have timed limits of use like in agriculture, which in turn affects the lake water level. Therefore, as the rainfall increases by April to August, we suggest to harvest and only use the rainfall water during its abundance period. This would help in restoring the lake’s water level during the time of rainwater uses, and leads to water consumption balance, flood management and lake biodiversity conservation as well.
... Under such hydro-hegemonic circumstances, the Rogun project would be the first major dam 4 finalised in Central Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union with a potential to increase the dependence of the downstream countries on Tajikistan for ensured water flow (Libert et al., 2008). At its full height the storage capacity of the Rogun Dam would be such that the concern of Tajikistan's basin development plan controlling not just the Vakhsh River but also the entire Amu Darya is overstated (Wegerich et al., 2007). ...
Basin riparians are not equally endowed in their resources and capacity to control water within a shared international river basin. Beyond hydrological constraints and geographical positions, other less tangible factors such as discourses and narratives influence interactions among basin riparians for water resources control and river basin development, requiring further analytical refinement of the role of power. The analysis of discursive and ideological dimensions of power, or 'soft' power, in particular, enables insights to strategies and tactics of water control under conditions of power asymmetries between basin states. This paper examines the debate around the controversial large-scale Rogun Dam project on the Vakhsh River in Tajikistan, exploring how the exercise of 'soft' power can, and sometimes cannot, shape transboundary water outcomes over water allocation. By focusing on international diplomacy and narratives, the paper provides insights into the non-coercive ways in which hydraulic development is justified. In particular, it is shown how 'soft' power was utilised by the Tajik decision-makers to legitimise dam development both at the international and domestic levels. The paper illustrates how, in the case of the Rogun Dam, 'soft' power falls short of determining a hydraulic development that changes the status quo of water allocation for Tajikistan.
... However, questions have been raised (Li et al. 2015) whether the project can be completed without causing severe environmental degradation including irreversible damage to Asia's water resources. In China, a key part of the proposed route passes through arid and semiarid regions where water resources are already under severe stress (Libert et al. 2008). Such concerns do not stop at the Chinese border. ...
Central Asia is well known for its history of water mismanagement. The rapid, catastrophic demise of the Aral Sea is testament to the unsustainable water diversion practices introduced by the Soviet Union in the 1960s and the failure of the five sovereign nations, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, that inherited responsibility for Central Asia’s ailing resources, to develop the types of program necessary for the sustainable management of what had become a shared “transboundary” water resource. Although nearly 25 years have passed since the break-up of the Soviet Union, rivalry and deep mistrust between the guardian nations of Central Asia’s water resources remains a serious impediment to achieving the level of cooperation necessary for constructive, water management and decision-making. This is a grave concern given the anticipated impacts of climate change and natural population growth on water in the region. For many Asians, the recently proposed new “Silk Road Economic Belt” is viewed as an immense opportunity to bring wealth and prosperity to some of the poorest regions of China and Central Asia. However, given Central Asia’s appalling record of water management, there is little confidence that the project’s water needs can be adequately met. In effect, the new “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the rapid growth it will bring to the region, represents a serious long-term threat to the sustainable management of Central Asia’s transboundary water resources. The fundamental concern is that the project may place too great a burden on a water management system in Central Asia that is seriously dysfunctional and shows no sign of improvement. Central Asian countries need to recognise that the economic success of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” hinges on their ability to develop programs that can ensure the region’s water resources are managed in a sound and sustainable manner. This will be a difficult challenge and will require cooperation amongst the countries of Central Asia that goes far beyond what currently seems possible. Major reforms are necessary and external pressures from neighbouring Russia and China are likely required to make this happen. It is also essential that the project be supported by sound science and good hydrological data, both of which are seriously lacking in the region. There will be a need to invest in scientific research in the relevant fields. With judicious planning, good science and a commitment amongst the nations of Central Asia to create a shared vision and collaborate towards a common goal, the “New Silk Road” can be developed both beneficially and sustainably.
... Figure 6 shows the average annual surface water inflow into the AALS by its source, decade and month. The release of fresh water from the Chardarya reservoir into the Arnasay lake occurs only sporadic (e.g., no inflow between 1981 and 1990, which coincides with a severe drought in Central Asia during the first half of the 1980s (Bernauer and Siegfried 2012) but 27.4 km 3 between 1991 and 2000) and mostly during the winter and early spring months (on average 0.91 and 0.92 km 3 during February and March, Fig. 6), when more water is released from the upstream reservoirs in the Syr Darya catchment for the generation of hydropower (e.g., the Toktogul dam with an installed capacity of 1200 MW at the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan, Bernauer and Siegfried 2012;Libert et al. 2008), and this released water cannot be used for the agricultural sector. The drainage water collected in the Golodnaya Steppe and discharged into the Arnasay and Tuzkan lakes, on the other hand, has been a much more constant inflow into the lake system. ...
Originally, a shallow saline depression between the Kyzylkum and the Nurata mountain range the Aydarkul–Arnasay Lake System (AALS) was created in 1969 when a catastrophic flood event in the Syr Darya catchment exceeded the capacity of the Chardarya reservoir. Additional water diversions further increased the volume of the lakes to up to 42.2 mln m3 in 2006. After the breakdown of the commercial fishing in the Uzbek part of the Aral Sea in 1983, the AALS became the most important fishery lake in Uzbekistan with an annual catch of more than 4600 tons (in 1988). In recent years, however, the fish catch experienced a sharp decline (down to 728 tons in 2006) due to the increased inflow of drainage water from the large Golodnaya Steppe (Hunger Steppe) irrigation scheme (e.g., 0.1 km3 in 1960, 1.0 km3 in 1970, 2.3 km3 in 1980, 2.9 km3 in 2000 and 3.6 km3 in 2010) and a decrease in freshwater inflow from the Chardarya reservoir (e.g., 4.0 km3 in 1995, 2.3 km3 in 2005 and 1.8 km3 in 2010). The increasing anthropogenic pressure, as well as the impacts of the climate change (+0.6–0.9 °C between 1950 and 2000, decrease in the long-term precipitation and increase in the variability), is threatening this ecological and economic important lake system. This article presents new data about the temporal dynamic of the lake hydrology (size, volume, water balance), the surrounding climate and its development as well as about the water quality of the lakes and the main drainage water collectors, and the development of the fish fauna over the last decades. This study, based on official data (Uzhydromet, Uzryba), online databases (GHCN) and extensive field work (water quality and fish sampling), provides a complete published analysis of the status quo of the AALS. Therefore, it is an important contribution to the establishment of a stable lake ecosystem system and a sustainable fishing industry.
... However, that real challenge will be to ensure that the New Silk Road is built in a sustainable way that gives adequate attention to the environment and the collateral damage that could be caused. For example, much of the route is situated in semi-arid and arid regions where the natural environment is highly vulnerable and water resources are already under stress (Libert et al. 2008). The problem is further compounded by the prospect of climate change and human activity, which together, will place a further strain on the limited natural resources and vulnerable environment (Immerzeel et al. 2010;Li et al. 2014). ...
The building of the Silk Road economic belt is an exciting prospect that may bring immense economic benefits to Eurasian countries. However, intensive human activities to be induced by it may double the water crisis in central Asia, deteriorate the vulnerable environment, and accelerate energy consumption in this area. To build a new and sustainable Silk Road economic belt, advancing scientific research, reinforcing international collaboration and enhancing education are necessary steps. With careful planning, sound research, good data and the support from governments and the people, the Silk Road economic belt can be developed in an environmentally sustainable manner that is a credit to all involved.
... The proved hydrocarbon reserves made Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan the center of geopolitical interests for different countries who want to address their own energy security issues (Blank, 1995;Boonstra, 2011;Cohen, 2006;Dhaka, 2006;Hu and Cheng, 2008;Bahgat, 2006). Meanwhile, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan heavily rely on their hydropower that accounts for about 90% of the regional potential, and this creates heated political water-food-energy disputes with downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (Jalilov et al., 2013;Libert et al., 2008). Attempts to create a regional water management structure in the form of barter for oil and gas for increased water discharge to downstream countries have not been very successful (Olcott, 2000). ...
Ensuring the security of the demand for energy exports and the supply of external energy is among the top priorities for Central Asian republics. This paper utilizes disaggregated Risky Energy Supply (REES) and Risky Energy Exports Demand (REED) indexes to measure the securities of energy supply and energy demand in the region. The results are compared to the indexes in the European Union (EU) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Furthermore, this paper measures individual contribution of each Central Asian country to the regional risk exposure to disruptions of energy export demand and external energy supply. The REES indexes for coal and gas of Central Asian energy-importing countries are lower than in the EU, while the regional oil RESS index for oil is significantly higher than in the EU. The average REED indexes for both crude oil and gas are significantly lower than in OPEC economies.
... For example, the U.S. witnessed a huge decline in economic output during the 1973 oil supply crisis (Akins, 1973). In 2008, a shortage of hydroelectricity supply in Central Asia caused severe damage to the national economy, especially in agriculture sectors, which led to a major food crisis in the same year (Libert et al., 2008). ...
... On the other hand, an upstream user of water, wishing to construct a dam and hold back water for hydropower purposes, may have interests that are in opposition to those of downstream users that wish to utilize these waters for irrigation purposes. This instance of heterogeneous appropriation is the current situation in the Syr Darya basin, where the four central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have been striving to develop a sustainable understanding regarding water and power generation in the region (see Libert et al., 2008). ...
Establishing and maintaining institutions that address functional necessities are critically important for good governance of transboundary waters. Form should always follow function. Institutional architecture is particularly highly dependent on political, social, economic and ecological drivers. These often competing drivers create a plethora of governance challenges. A one-size-fits-all approach to institutional architecture is neither desirable nor possible in the governance of transboundary waters. Drawing on lessons and experiences from the GEF/UNDP Good Practices and Portfolio Learning in Transboundary Freshwater and Marine Legal and Institutional Frameworks Project, this paper identifies various challenges associated with establishing and maintaining effective transboundary waters governance arrangements. This paper also identifies particular institutional architecture concepts that stakeholders and sovereigns should consider when designing governance institutions, which focus on how to balance incentives, reduce uncertainty, increase confidence and reduce costs. Further research and analysis is needed to identify more specific institutional architectures that are likely to lead to collaborative solutions to common problems in transboundary waters management. However, some preliminary observations and conclusions are presented.
... Consequently, the winter release of both Toktogul and Karakul reservoirs in 2009 were much lower than previous years ( figure 3). However, the water release in 2008 from Toktogul and Karakul did not reach Kazakhstan because it was captured by Uzbekistan to meet their own needs (Libert et al 2008). At its maximum in 2008, the water volume of the Toktogul reservoir was almost the same as the lowest level reached in summer time over the preceding ten years (figure 10). ...
Large reservoirs along rivers regulate downstream flows to generate hydropower but may also store water for irrigation and urban sectors. Reservoir management therefore becomes critical, particularly for transboundary basins, where coordination between riparian countries is needed. Reservoir management is even more important in semiarid regions where downstream water users may be totally reliant on upstream reservoir releases. If the water resources are shared between upstream and downstream countries, potentially opposite interests arise as is the case in the Syrdarya river in Central Asia. In this case study, remote sensing data (radar altimetry and optical imagery) are used to highlight the potential of satellite data to monitor water resources: water height, areal extent and storage variations. New results from 20 years of monitoring using satellites over the Syrdarya basin are presented. The accuracy of satellite data is 0.6 km3 using a combination of MODIS data and satellite altimetry, and only 0.2 km3 with Landsat images representing 2–4% of average annual reservoir volume variations in the reservoirs in the Syrdarya basin. With future missions such as Sentinel-3A (S3A), Sentinel-3B (S3B) and surface water and ocean topography (SWOT), significant improvement is expected. The SWOT mission’s main payload (a radar interferometer in Ka band) will furthermore provide 2D maps of water height, reservoirs, lakes, rivers and floodplains, with a temporal resolution of 21 days. At the global scale, the SWOT mission will cover reservoirs with areal extents greater than 250 × 250 m with 20 cm accuracy.
... Post-USSR, both basins have become international basins that involved four to five countries. The "1984 Syr Darya Protocol 413" and "1987 Amu Darya Protocol 566" are now the guidelines of international water sharing, but without any legal authority (Libert et al, 2006). Currently, only two formal water-related agreements exist: a 1996 equal water sharing agreement between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and a 1998 Syr Darya agreement for energy transfer Bernauer, 2007 andSiegfried, 2008). ...
The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projection from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows very large uncertainty in climate-change-related risk in the Himalaya region. Inability to plan increases the challenge of water resources management for large river basins, especially in Central and South Asia. This uncertainty is largely attributable to GCM's poor representation of the snow/glacier-melting mechanism and monsoon precipitation prediction. The river basins of the Himalaya region include (from east to west) the Aral Sea basins (Syr Darya and Amu Darya), the Indus Basin, the Ganges Basin, and the Brahmaputra Basin. The total population in these basins is about 1.8 billion and is projected to increase faster than other world regions. The increasing population and complex political/socioeconomic conditions make this region even more vulnerable to climate change risks. This study provides a comprehensive summary of the climate change risks in this region and covers topics from climatology and hydrology (natural-system perspective) to water resources system and socioeconomic impacts (anthropocentric perspective). It is expected that this comprehensive knowledge platform will provide guidance for future water-resources-related studies in sub-areas as diverse as energy and food security, infrastructure development, flood and drought management, planning for extreme events, and transboundary water sharing.
This study examines the effect of energy resources on the chances for militarized conflict, water related conflict and cooperation events, and cooperative river treaties between pairs of states on shared international river basins. We examine trade-offs that riparian states can make between energy resources such as oil or natural gas and fresh water resources. Integrating upstream and downstream states’ geographical position in a river basin with energy resource information, we examine four related scenarios of states sharing rivers: (1) Joint energy where both upstream and downstream countries have energy resources, (2) Downstream energy where only the downstream state has energy resources, (3) Upstream energy where only an upstream country has energy resources, and (4) No energy. Theoretically, we argue that Downstream energy dyads are most likely to find cooperative solutions to conflicts over shared river resources because downstream states can offer oil and natural gas side payments to upstream states in exchange for greater water supplies. Empirical analyses of dyadic data in shared river basin dyads from 1945 to 2001 provide strong support for the theory. Riparian cooperation through river treaties and diplomacy is best achieved in Downstream energy dyads, where the downstream states have energy resources that can be traded for water resources with upstream states. Militarized conflict and water related conflict events are most likely in Joint energy dyads. Case illustrations from the Aral Sea and Ganges river basins are used to demonstrate the theoretical arguments.
The mandate, structure and functioning of Central Asian institutions of water resources management reflect the historic circumstances of their creation and evolution. Established on the remnants of the Soviet system of water resources management, the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) conserved the priority of irrigation over the energy sector and environment protection. Despite clearly expressed political will by the 2009 IFAS Summit, member states were unable to improve the obsolete legal basis and institutional weaknesses of the Fund. IFAS should undergo a thorough reform to enable Central Asian states to effectively address present and future challenges, like climate change adaptation.
Freshwater is among the major resources of Tajikistan. With the majority of the surface water originating from its territory, the country represents a water tower for the Amu Darya and consequently for the Aral Sea. Per inhabitant, Tajikistan uses much less of the water resources used in other riparian countries and has a significant hydropower potential. To fully develop it, Tajikistan follows a sophisticated strategy that includes the construction of the Rogun dam and that is articulated on several levels: from the citizen level to the national level with a national water sector reform and to the international level with many bilateral, regional, and global initiatives. Tajikistan has become one of the leading countries on water cooperation at the global level and places the United Nations at the center of global water governance. The soft power of Tajikistan on the water agenda can be broken down in several attributes: the international context with a fragmented global water governance; the leadership provided at the highest levels of the state and the stability of power structures; the expertise and capacity built in the country; the support of many countries, international organizations, and international financial institutions; as well as the traditional hospitality of the Tajik people. This all contributes to the so-called Dushanbe Spirit. With its water initiatives and by hosting conferences in Dushanbe, Tajikistan provides a public good to the international community. The latest initiative to date led to the declaration by the UN General Assembly of the International Decade for Action “Water for Sustainable Development” (2018–2028).
Continental waters have a major impact on life on Earth as well as domestic, industrial and agricultural needs, but they also play an important role in climate variability. Nearly 73% of the worldwide demand for water is met by surface reservoirs (rivers, lakes and artificial reservoirs) and 19% is met by underground reservoirs. The rest is provided either through the treatment of wastewater or the desalination of seawater. From a societal point of view, it is highly important to estimate the changes which affect the continental water cycle. Being able to describe it in even greater detail makes it possible to make more accurate climate predictions and to refine the way in which the planet's water supply is controlled. © 2016 ISTE Press Ltd Published by Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
Water is a scarce resource in many regions of the world. In all Central Asian countries, the society depends on the availability of water either for hydro-power generation or irrigation. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the separation into independent countries, water resources management became a critical and political issue. Public information on water resources is now unavailable for many lakes and reservoirs and the data exchange about in- and outflows or actual storage volumes is limited. While the initial purpose of radar altimetry has been to measure sea surface topography and sea level changes, it proved to be a suitable tool for inland water body monitoring and to partially provide data about lake and reservoir level changes. Using this technology, the water levels of the Toktogul, Kairakum and Shardara Reservoirs and Lake Aydarkol have been extracted from 1995 onward. Using external information the derived water levels have been converted into water volume changes. This study shows that since 2011 the available water volume decreased and the water from the Toktogul and Shardara Reservoirs are overused. In 2015 the stored water volume of the Toktogul Reservoir was almost at its lowest possible amount. Merely the Kairakum Reservoir with a smaller storage capacity is replenished every year. Likewise, a decrease of water level and volume of Lake Aydarkol is clearly visible for the past years.
A comprehensive overview of treaty implementation and compliance concerning transboundary environmental governance in Asia is provided in this timely book. Recent United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) membership by Asian states in the Caucasus and Central Asia has shifted focus on environmental governance away from its Euro-centric roots and placed Asia at the forefront of discussion. The focus of this book is centred on the five UNECE treaties: Public Participation, Environmental Impact Assessment, Industrial Accidents, Water and Air Pollution. Twelve related protocols are discussed including Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Civil Liability, Water and Health, and Air Pollutants. © Simon Marsden and Elizabeth Brandon 2015. All rights reserved.
This study was conducted to characterize domestic and diplomatic difficulties of countries planning to commence trading of electricity. Iceland and Tajikistan are examined to highlight particular difficulties. Regarding Iceland, suspicion of public and private aluminum smelting industries and possible hikes of electricity rates constitute a major domestic issue, along with fear of foreign intervention. Tajikistan intends to boost national prestige by construction of the Rogun Dam, slated to be the tallest dam in the world. That plan irritates Uzbekistan, which assumes hegemony in the region. Iceland should assure that electricity trade with foreign countries should not engender hikes of domestic electricity prices. Transparency of information should also be assured for the conduct of the national power company. The Iceland government should avoid "politicizing" the issue: trade should be dealt with genuinely as a business matter. Tajikistan should assign priority to increased national income by selling electricity, not in boosting national prestige by the construction of a huge dam. Findings from this study suggest that governments should (a) clarify to the public what benefits might be secured by electricity trade, (b) not politicize electricity trade with foreign countries, and (c) not victimize any country in the region.
Logframes are fundamental to contemporary development. However, there are ongoing
debates about their efficacy. This paper pinpoints the limitations of the logframe
approach in a water project in Central Asia. Issues surrounding logframes are
identified. These include addressing internal risks; the use of baseline studies for the
accuracy of assumptions; the ability to adapt under an inflexible budget; and linking the
logframe and contract. Findings show that rigid planning may constrain effective
project implementation. Greater flexibility through embedded learning and adaptation,
adjustable budgets and meaningful mainstreaming of risks may equip projects to cope
with uncertainties to achieve sustainability.
Neutral beam injection (NBI) is one of the most effective ways to heat and drive plasma in a tokamak. The mega watt level neutral beam injector on the HL-2A tokamak consists of four high-power ion sources. Each source is supplied by discharge, beam extraction and auxiliary power supplies. Some circuit topologies and control sequences designed for the system are presented in this paper. Some important technologies such as the notching circuit, insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) series-connected switch, high-frequency switching power supply and control system based on a digital signal processor (DSP) have been used. The system can be effectively used for high current ion beam extraction, protection, ion optics and so on. The power system has been safely used in HL-2A high-parameter NBI experiments for three years. The power of NBI can be kept at higher than 0.75 MW for 1 second and the ion beam power extracted from the ion source is higher than 2 MW. The ion temperature of the plasma center is close to 2.0 keV. These results show that the design of this power system is reasonable and reliable, and it can fully meet the system requirements for NBI of the HL-2A tokamak.
The effects of ion diamagnetic drift on the high-order harmonic modes in rotating tokamak plasmas are numerically investigated by using a cylindrical reduced magnetohydrodynamic model. It is found that the ion diamagnetic drift has a stabilizing effect on the high-order tearing modes in the small ion diamagnetic drift regime and can excite the high-order Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability in the large ion diamagnetic drift regime. The effects of ion diamagnetic drift flow on the tearing modes are different from those of the poloidal shear flow. Moreover, the combined effect of the two flows on tearing modes and KH modes depends on their relative direction. The eigenmode structures of the tearing modes and KH modes under the influence of ion diamagnetic drift flow are also presented. Finally, the numerical results are verified reasonably by the scalings on resistivity.
The pedestrians can only avoid collisions passively under the action of forces during simulations using the social force model, which may lead to unnatural behaviors. This paper proposes an optimization-based model for the avoidance of collisions, where the social repulsive force is removed in favor of a search for the quickest path to destination in the pedestrian’s vision field. In this way, the behaviors of pedestrians are governed by changing their desired walking direction and desired speed. By combining the critical factors of pedestrian movement, such as positions of the exit and obstacles and velocities of the neighbors, the choice of desired velocity has been rendered to a discrete optimization problem. Therefore, it is the self-driven force that leads pedestrians to a free path rather than the repulsive force, which means the pedestrians can actively avoid collisions. The new model is verified by comparing with the fundamental diagram and actual data. The simulation results of individual avoidance trajectories and crowd avoidance behaviors demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model.
The realization of a perfect spin or valley filtering effect in two-dimensional graphene-like materials is one of the fundamental objectives in spintronics and valleytronics. For this purpose, we study spin- and valley-dependent transport in a silicene system with spatially alternative strains. It is found that due to the valley-opposite gauge field induced by the strain, the strained silicene with a superlattice structure exhibits an angle-resolved valley and spin filtering effect when the spin–orbit interaction is considered. When the interaction that breaks the time reversal symmetry is introduced, such as the spin or valley dependent staggered magnetization, the system is shown to be a perfect spin and valley half metal in which only one spin and valley species is allowed to transport. Our findings are helpful to design both spintronic and valleytronic devices based on silicene.
We investigated the temperature dependent recovery of the threshold voltage shift observed in both ZnO and indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO) thin film transistors (TFTs) after application of gate bias and light illumination. Two types of recovery were observed for both the ZnO and IGZO TFTs; low temperature recovery (below 110 degrees C) which is attributed to the trapped charge and high temperature recovery (over 110 degrees C) which is related to the annihilation of trap states generated during stresses. From a comparison study of the recovery rate with the analysis of hydrogen diffusion isochronal annealing, a similar behavior was observed for both TFT recovery and hydrogen diffusion. This result suggests that hydrogen plays an important role in the generation and annihilation of trap states in oxide TFTs under gate bias or light illumination stresses. (C) 2013 The Japan Society of Applied Physics
We report controlled 1.1–1.6 μm luminescence in gold-free multi-stacked InAs/InP heterostructure nanowires (NWs). We realized the NWs by using an indium-particle-assisted vapor–liquid–solid synthesis approach. The growth temperature, as low as 320 °C, enables the formation of an atomically abrupt InP/InAs interface by supressing the diffusion and weakening the reservoir effect in the indium droplet. The low growth temperature also enables us to grow multi-stacked InAs/InP NWs in the axial direction without any growth on the NW side face. The high controllability of the growth technology ensures that the luminescence can be tailored by the thickness of InAs segment in InP NWs and cover the 1.3–1.5 μm telecommunication window range. By using the nanoscale-spatial-resolution technology combing cathodoluminescence with scanning electron microscopy, we directly correlated the site of different-thickness InAs segments with its luminescence property in a single NW and demonstrate the InAs-thickness-controlled energy of optical emission in 1.1–1.6 μm.
Recently, possibilities of improving operation speed and force sensitivity in atomic-scale atomic force microscopy (AFM) in liquid using a small cantilever with an electron beam deposited (EBD) tip have been intensively explored. However, the structure and properties of an EBD tip suitable for such an application have not been well-understood and hence its fabrication process has not been established. In this study, we perform atomic-scale AFM measurements with a small cantilever and clarify two major problems: contaminations from a cantilever and tip surface, and insufficient mechanical strength of an EBD tip having a high aspect ratio. To solve these problems, here we propose a fabrication process of an EBD tip, where we attach a 2 μm silica bead at the cantilever end and fabricate a 500-700 nm EBD tip on the bead. The bead height ensures sufficient cantilever-sample distance and enables to suppress long-range interaction between them even with a short EBD tip having high mechanical strength. After the tip fabrication, we coat the whole cantilever and tip surface with Si (30 nm) to prevent the generation of contamination. We perform atomic-scale AFM imaging and hydration force measurements at a mica-water interface using the fabricated tip and demonstrate its applicability to such an atomic-scale application. With a repeated use of the proposed process, we can reuse a small cantilever for atomic-scale measurements for several times. Therefore, the proposed method solves the two major problems and enables the practical use of a small cantilever in atomic-scale studies on various solid-liquid interfacial phenomena.
During the last decade, research and development in microfluidic devices have grown significantly due to their wide variety of applications in physics, chemistry and biology. A specific category of microfluidic devices focuses on the generation of micro-emulsions that can be used, for example, as chemical and biological reactors to synthesize new materials and perform assays. However, the traditional fabrication process of such microfluidic devices involves the use of special instrumentations and clean room facilities. These steps are generally expensive, time consuming and require specific levels of expertise. In this article, an alternative method to fabricate robust microfluidic devices using conventional components and a new commercially available self-setting rubber is presented. Using this method, a cheap, reproducible and easy to manufacture microfluidic device has been developed for generating single and double emulsions in the range of 100s of µm with high throughput. One possible application of this device is demonstrated with the synthesis of highly porous polymer beads from a High Internal Phase Emulsion (HIPE). The fabricated microbeads could find potential application in 3D cell culture due to their high porosity (up to 95%) and pore size (from 5 to 30 µm). The process here presented offers great opportunities for chemists and biologists interested in synthesising new materials while minimizing time, costs and expertise in the development of microfluidic systems.
We describe a number of techniques for the analysis of solid-state nanopore ionic current traces and introduce a new package of Matlab analysis scripts with GUI front ends. We discuss methods for the detection of the local baseline and propose a new detection algorithm that bypasses some of the classical weaknesses of moving-average detection. Our new approach removes detected events and re-creates an ideal event-free baseline subsequently used to recalculate the local baseline. Iterative operation of this algorithm causes both the moving average of the baseline current and its standard deviation to converge to their correct values. We explain different approaches to selecting events and building event populations, and we show the value of keeping track of the changes in parameters, such as the event rate and the pore resistance, throughout the course of the experiment. Finally, we introduce a new technique for separating unfolded events and detecting current spikes present within translocation events. This open source software package is available online at: http://ceesdekkerlab.tudelft.nl/downloads/
The present work shows the inverted InP quantum dot light-emitting diodes (QD-LEDs) with inorganic metal oxide layers. In the inverted structure of ITO/ZnO/InP QDs/CBP/MoO 3 /Al, a sol–gel derived ZnO film was used as an electron transport layer (ETL) and MoO 3 was used as a hole injection layer (HIL). In contrary to high annealing temperature (>200 °C) for conventional ZnO films, low temperature annealing (∼150 °C) was performed for sol–gel derived ZnO film. The performance of the inverted QD-LEDs was efficiently improved by optimization of the annealing time and temperature of ZnO ETL. The current efficiency was significantly improved about 215% by lowering annealing temperature of ZnO ETL.
Geometric phase has found a broad spectrum of applications in both classical and quantum physics. In this work we discuss a geometric phase for mixed quantum states based on traces of spectral weighted holonomies. Our approach applies to general unitary evolutions of both nondegenerate and degenerate mixed states, and it generalizes the standard definition of geometric phase for mixed states, which is based on quantum interferometry. We provide an explicit formula for the geometric phase that can be easily implemented for computations in quantum physics, and we discuss higher order analogs of the geometric phase that might be defined at points where the ordinary geometric phase is undefined.
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