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Systèmes Experts de Trading en Ligne - Trading Expert Systems On Line TExSOL ®
Abstract
GB: This document in French describes the trading expert system developed by Patrice Poyet and Guillaume Besse to manage long / short portfolios including techniques for stock selection, risk management and global portfolio monitoring.
FR: L'objet de ce document est de permettre aux utilisateurs de notre système expert boursier en ligne TexSOL®, de disposer des notions de base qui leur garantiront de faire le meilleur usage des exceptionnelles fonctionnalités offertes par le système. Compte tenu du caractère très hétérogène de la population des utilisateurs d'un tel logiciel, nous avons décomposé cet ouvrage en deux parties: la première est une introduction à tous les concepts boursiers ou liés aux marchés, utiles car exploités d'une manière ou d'une autre par TExSOL®, la deuxième est une présentation ciblée sur les fonctionnalités réellement implémentées à ce jour par le logiciel, c'est à dire les différentes stratégies offertes, les mécanismes auxquels elles recourent, les portefeuilles correspondants et courbes de gestion des risques, et de la couverture à mettre en œuvre pour tenir ces positions. En matière de systèmes experts, il n'a pas été jugé utile de rentrer dans le détail de leur conception ou de leur implémentation informatique, les auteurs de ces systèmes ayant une expérience de plus d'une quinzaine d'année en la matière, ils renvoient à la liste des références bibliographiques correspondante pour les lecteurs intéressés par cet aspect. Pour ce qui concerne les notions liées aux marchés et à la finance en général, nous vous proposons un glossaire assez complet, et nous avons souvent indiqué les termes anglais correspondants, pour lever toute ambiguïté et vous faciliter vos lectures ultérieures.
COSMOS stands for Capital Oriented Systematic Management of Speculation. The key objective is to operate speculative hedge funds based on systematic trading and automated account management by expert systems while favouring protection and growth of capital. All words have their importance. Speculation means that the approach does not deal with any notion of absolute or relative value of the securities or of the sectors or markets addressed (i.e. fundamental analysis) and that tight risk control mechanisms are enforced to ensure that the accounts be managed according to the rules enacted, the policies described to and agreed by the stakeholders. Methods used to trade have been completely formalised and not a single decision is made by the system which would not correspond to a clear trading rule, checked and back-tested on many markets over decades. The notion of trading rule is very generic at that stage of this introduction and covers mechanisms enabling to identify markets, sectors or securities’ trends, to determine long / short entry signals, to handle positions sizing and management including stop policies, to care for account and money management within agreed boundaries or safety limits (e.g. draw down, etc.).
John P. Hussman owns a Master's Degree from Northwestern University (1985), and a PhD from the Leland Stanford Junior University (1992) and runs a series of investment funds, the flagship of them being the HSGFX, and offers an instructive weekly market comment on his web site hussmanfunds. In March 2012, John P. Hussman was looking to recruit an Advisor Relations Manager and issued a financial QUIZZ comprising twelve questions for any applicant. I had been reading his weekly market comments for many years and appreciated the logic and steadfastness of the opinions and analysis exposed in his papers and even though I had no intention to postulate as my life is across an ocean, I thought intellectually stimulating to embark on answering to my best the QUIZZ.
For more than twenty years African states have devoted themselves to the improvement of water supply to the rural population. The problem of water prospecting became crucial and in 1989 the most optimistic statistic show that drinking water is still not available to more than 80% of the rural population in developing countries.
The various estimations carried out within the scope of the International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade (1981-1990) show that the water demand in countries of Western and Central Africa is considerable. As far as the village water supply is concerned, extrapolating the 1976 estimations leads to 100.000 water points to be carried out by 1990.
To meet the water demand in developing countries, thousands of water points remain to be created within the scope of programs for village water supply.
Since 1973, we devoted ourselves to extending the water resources of developing countries and we reflected upon the mechanism governing the hydrodynamic characteristics of aquifers. Since 1985, we have modeled this approach thanks to computer tools based on the expert system technology. We have developed an expert system dedicated to optimize the location of drilling sites.
This paper is an overview of hydrogeological studies in the field of village water supply programs. Its primary interest lies in the way it identifies decisive hydrogeological parameters and its use of artificial intelligence techniques in this domain.
We first present the main features of African hydrogeology then we summarize the methods usually used by experts for well-location studies. We explain our methodology to identify decisive hydrogeological parameters and present original data showing connections between data collected during the location studies and hydrodynamical parameters registered during the drilling.
Through an expert system approach we explain the possibility of modeling the process used by hydrogeologist to successfully carry out drilling sites studies. We then detail the expert system HYDROLAB© architecture, the rules of the software, its principal functions, its model of control and its system for recognizing solutions.
Earlier studies led the authors to presuppose the existence of a significant influence of the weathered zone and its state of saturation on the hydrodynamic characteristics of the crystalline aquifer. After the analysis of 1.012 drillings carried out in the central African Basement Complex, they bring out arguments outlining this relation. The role of the saprolite reservoir has been quantified in order to determine the statistical hydro-geological characteristics of the drillings in the crystalline basement.
Through an expert system approach we explain the possibility of modeling the process used by a hydrogeologist to successfully
carry out well-location studies. We then detail the expert system «HYDROLAB» (1) architecture, the rules of the software,
its principal functions, its model of control and its system for recognizing solutions.
Work undertaken by the authors for the last ten years in 15 African countries has enabled the modelling of a water points implementation strategy. It has also permitted the quantification of determining criteria within the village water supply frame. Through an expert system approach they explain the possibility of modelling the process used by a hydrogeologist to successfully carry out well‐location studies. This article describes the expert system Hydrolab, which is devoted both to computer‐aided decision making and to computer‐assisted learning support.
