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Personal space, evasive movement and pedestrian level of service

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Abstract

SUMMARY This study proposed a behavioral theory-based approach to better assess pedestrian levels of service for sidewalks, using the concepts of personal space and pedestrian evasive movements. Data from pedestrian interviews and video recordings at 28 commercial, residential, and leisure locations were used to analyze the effects of pedestrian movements on pedestrian perceived levels of service. With these results, a new measure of pedestrian level of service was developed. With the use of a separate validation sample, the revised levels of service obtained were found to be more consistent with the pedestrian perceived levels than the levels prescribed by the Korean Highway Capacity Manual. Hence, this research recommended the use of the revised measures for pedestrian level of service in the design and evaluation of pedestrian facilities. We also found that pedestrian evasive movements on sidewalks could better explain pedestrians' perception of the levels of service for a given facility. Moreover, pedestrian evasive movements were found to be sensitive to the width of the sidewalk and pedestrian volume. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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... Previously, studies regarding Pedestrian Interactive Behaviours (PIBs) including overtaking behaviour [1][2][3][4][5], evasive behaviour [6][7][8] and weaving behaviour [9][10] have been conducted on walkways. Previous studies mainly focused on two aspects of PIBs: (1) distances necessary for taking behaviours to occur (micro level); (2) occurrence frequencies at a specific density (macro level). ...
... On the former subject, many studies have investigated the longitudinal distance between pedestrians before a behaviour occurs and the horizontal distance between pedestrians after the behaviour has occurred. Controlled experiments [1-3, 8-10, 11] and field observations [4,7] were most often conducted to investigate these distances. For example, Wu et al. reported that the average longitudinal distance before overtaking behaviour occurs is 2.4 m and the horizontal distance after overtaking behaviour has occurred is about 0.75 m at low density [4]. ...
... For example, Wu et al. reported that the average longitudinal distance before overtaking behaviour occurs is 2.4 m and the horizontal distance after overtaking behaviour has occurred is about 0.75 m at low density [4]. Kim et al. found that the average longitudinal distance before evasive behaviour occurs is 0.65 m, while the average horizontal distance after evasive behaviour has occurred is 0.49 m [7]. Ma et al. found that pedestrians keep a distance of about 0.4 m to the wall, and the average relaxation distance between pedestrians is about 1.08 m [11]. ...
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The objective of this study is to analyse characteristics of Pedestrian Interactive Behaviours (PIBs) in order to propose a revised pedestrian walkway Level of Service (LOS) in China. Field data on overtaking and evasive behaviours were collected at a metro station walkway in Shanghai, China to calculate macro and micro indicators. Occurrence intensities of these two PIBs initially increased with moderate density and later decreased with high density that reduced available space. PIBs were also analysed in terms of sideways behaviours to account for the varying difficulties of PIBs at different densities. It was found that available space for PIBs was the main factor contributing to the intensity features. Moreover, the different space demands of the two PIBs resulted in different features between them. Finally, a revised pedestrian walkway LOS was proposed based on the macro and micro characteristics of PIBs in China.
... This evasive movement is often considered as an essential factor for determining the Level of Service (LOS) for a certain pedestrian flow. Kim et al. (2014) have defined five different evasive movements in pedestrian flow, and established criteria of determining the LOS regarding the number of evasive movements occurred. ...
... Then, the number of collisions per pedestrian during the simulation has been regarded as the traffic characteristic 'Collision'. Kim et al. (2014) have found that the lateral distance of personal space is 0.49m, while the longitudinal distance is 0.65m in Korea. The Korean Highway Capacity Manual (2013) also defines the personal space of pedestrian to be 0.2m 2 . ...
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For the development of a sustainable transportation system, a modal shift from automobiles to walking or transit is encouraged. In order to design a more convenient and comfortable walking environment, a sound modeling of pedestrian flow is necessary. Most of the previously developed pedestrian flow models well described the macroscopic features of unidirectional pedestrian flow. However, in pedestrian counter-flow, interactions among conflicting pedestrians are so complicated and existing flow models fall short in explaining some features of pedestrian behaviors. A spontaneous lane formation, which helps to reduce conflicts and increase travel speeds, is a commonly observed feature of a crowded pedestrian flow. This paper develops a social-force based pedestrian model, which can explain the lane formation phenomenon. From the simulation results, it turns out that the ‘following effect’ and ‘evasive effect’ mainly contribute to the lane formation. Higher capacity and travel speed are obtained when pedestrians are more congregated.
... Currently, performance measures for evaluating the level of service provided to pedestrians include pedestrian space, flow rate, density, and travel time [2,19]. Additionally, significant effort has been made in many countries to develop a novel method for evaluating pedestrian environments [20][21][22][23]. In this study, feature vectors were extracted based on the index for evaluating pedestrian environments related to utilization efficiency, mobility, and comfortability. ...
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Stations are being converted into various living spaces that can be used for public transportation, work, commerce, and leisure. To satisfy the various requirements and expectations for functional extension, it is necessary to investigate and understand the phenomena caused by users. A methodology to cluster the characteristics of pedestrian space of a railway station through the pedestrian trajectory data collected from an actual operating station is proposed in this paper. Then the spatial usability of the movement and stay of pedestrians were defined through the results of the clustering. The procedure to cluster the indoor space characteristics of an urban railway station in this study consists of four steps: data collection, feature vector extraction, K-means clustering, and cluster characteristics analysis. A case study was conducted for the Samseong station. The results of the proposed spatial clustering analysis showed that there are several types of spaces depending on the space occupancy characteristics of pedestrians. The proposed methodology could be applied to indoor space diagnosis from the perspective of station monitoring and management. In addition, the station operator could respond flexibly to unexpected events by monitoring the indoor spaces according to whether the flow is normal or suggestive of an emergency.
... When pedestrians walk in the crowd, they keep a certain distance from others during the movement and maintain such personal space. This is because pedestrians may feel uncomfortable when a stranger invades their personal space (Kim et al. 2014). In this part, the Voronoi Diagram is used to define the personal space during the movement procedure (Xiao et al. 2016). ...
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Investigating the pedestrian dynamics can help researchers and managers design pedestrian facilities more reasonably and develop crowd management plans scientifically. Researches show that most pedestrians in the crowd are a social group that has an impact on pedestrian movement characteristics in normal and emergency situations. In this study, a series of unidirectional-flow experiments are carried out to investigate the influence of a two-people social group with a strong relationship on pedestrian flow via changing corridor structures and components of the crowd. It is found that there are significant statistical differences between social groups and individuals at the micro-level, such as personal space. However, such differences are not reflected in the macro level, the presence of the social group has no significant impact on pedestrian dynamics, such as fundamental diagram and movement time. In addition, social groups adjust their relative positions and distance to alleviate the influence of high density.
... Further, researchers have evaluated pedestrian LOS with respect to pedestrian space as well as evasive movement. The results indicated that evasive movements of a pedestrian could better explain the pedestrian-perceived LOS (41). Researchers have also presented a comprehensive review of the LOS of various nonmotorized modes (42,43) and the LOS based on microscopic simulation (44). ...
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Analyses of pedestrian-related issues have been gaining much attention from researchers in recent years, particularly studies of pedestrian safety and pedestrian level of service (LOS) in developing countries. The focus for evaluating pedestrian LOS has shifted from quantitative methods to qualitative methods and factors to be considered have been changing. Crosswalks (namely, signalized, unsignalized, and midblock) are complex locations because of the interaction of pedestrians with the vehicle flow. Pedestrian LOS at crosswalks is quite different from that on sidewalks. A measure of effectiveness (MOE) is usually adopted for evaluation of pedestrian facilities, and the MOE changes with the type of facility. Pedestrian delay and space at the corner are considered as MOEs for signalized intersections. The MOE might depend on pedestrian safety, delay, available vehicle gaps (crossing difficulty), and behavior of pedestrians as well as that of vehicle drivers at unprotected midblock crosswalks. This study sought to identify the importance of pedestrian LOS in the context of developing countries, particularly at unprotected midblock crosswalks. To achieve this objective, a review of the literature was carried out on the pedestrian LOS at various facilities such as the sidewalk, intersection, and midblock crosswalk. The review highlighted the need for further pedestrian LOS studies at various facilities under mixed traffic.
... Others use a scoring system to calculate the different PPSI on a sidewalk (6,7,(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20). Others still, propose a linear relation between the PPSI and the explanatory variables generating an equation to calculate the PPSI through OLS models (1,4,5,(21)(22)(23)(24)(25)(26). In some cases, a stepwise regression is used to select the independent variables (27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34). ...
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A variety of different pedestrian performance or service indicators (PPSI), such as the pedestrian level of service (PLOS), or quality of service (QoS), have been developed to evaluate pedestrian infrastructure. Although modeling approaches vary (e.g., ordinal least squares, scoring system), the great majority use on-site measurable attributes, such as sidewalk width or adjacent traffic, to estimate the PPSI. However, most of these models have been developed without jointly considering objective and subjective variables and their interactions. This study had two objectives: (i) to develop a model that simultaneously uses objective and subjective variables to estimate the pedestrian perception of sidewalks’ QoS in Bogota, Colombia, and (ii) to identify the interactions between objective variables and pedestrian perceptions of sidewalk attributes. To do so, data was gathered from 1056 users of 30 sidewalks in the city and an Ordered Probit Multiple Indicator and Multiple Cause model was estimated and validated using match score, error distribution, and chi squared test. Using the model, it was possible to correctly forecast the perceived QoS in 26 of the 30 sidewalks, considering the interaction between users’ characteristics and on-site sidewalk measured attributes with four latent variables ( sidewalk characteristics, surrounding, discomfort, and externalities) based on pedestrian perceptions. We also proposed guidelines that provide decision makers with the tools to identify which sidewalk attributes actually influence pedestrian perception of QoS.
... As for the analysis of PIBs, many researchers have conducted studies on level walkways [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]; studies about PIBs on stairways were relatively inadequate. Pauls [15] pointed that the lateral oscillation of pedestrians walking on stairways would increase when their speed become slower. ...
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Stairways serve as important walking facilities for pedestrians, especially in metro stations, but researches of pedestrian traffic on stairways are not sufficient. This paper investigates pedestrian interactive behaviors (PIBs) under the different level of services (LOS) on stairways, including overtaking behavior and evasive behavior on stairways. Macro and micro indicators are proposed and calculated based on field observation collected from two stairway flights in a certain metro station in Shanghai, China. Results of macro indicators reveal that the characteristics of overtaking behavior and evasive behavior have both similarities and differences. As for similarities, neither of these two types of behaviors would occur under extremely low or high densities, representing LOS A or LOS F. Under other ranges of density, occurrence intensities of pedestrian interactive behaviors on stairways are different. Overtaking behavior intensity shows a rapid increase trend with the density from low to medium, while evasive behavior intensity keeps a certain value. Results of micro indictors show that the available space for overtaking behavior and evasive behavior is the main factor contributing to the above similarities and differences. Characteristics of PIBs under the different LOS present in highway capacity manual are discussed based on field observations. Findings of this research are helpful to understand the knowledge of PIBs on stairways for a better stairway traffic design and level of service evaluation.
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This paper presents the results of a study conducted to examine the characteristics of human-centered design and pedestrians' perceptions of street design features. The main emphasis was to determine the existence of empirical evidence that human-centered design increases pedestrian satisfaction levels and enhances community walkability. The following approach was applied in the study: (i) the existing research concerning walkable community and pedestrian facility designs was reviewed; (ii) survey data from pedestrian interviews regarding urban streets as well as the detailed geometric features of the interview sites were gathered; (iii) statistical analysis to determine whether pedestrians actually feel more satisfied when they walk in areas with human-centered design was conducted based on actual pedestrian interview scores for various street design features; and (iv) major design features to increase pedestrian satisfaction levels were identified. The study results show that pedestrians perceived planting strips as the most important design element that would increase the satisfaction scores whereas they perceived the presence of driveways and the number of vehicle lanes as design elements that that would diminish the scores. Overall, the valuable findings of this research provide evidence of the various effects of the application of human-centered design and improve our understanding of walkable communities. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Thesis
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This thesis is concerned with the user experience of crowds, incorporating issues of comfort, satisfaction, safety and performance within a given crowd situation. Factors that influence the organisation and monitoring of crowd events will be considered. A comprehensive review of the literature revealed that crowd safety, pedestrian flow modeling, public order policing and hooliganism prevention, has received the greatest attention with previous research on crowds. Whereas crowd performance, comfort and satisfaction has received less attention, particularly within spectator events (sporting and music for example). Original research undertaken for this doctoral thesis involved a series of studies: user focus groups, stakeholder interviews, and observational research within event security and organisation. Following on from these investigations, the findings have been integrated with a tool to assist crowd organisers and deliverers during the planning of crowd events, and accompanying user feedback interviews following use of the tool. The overarching aim of the research within this thesis was to explore the complex issues that contribute to the user experience of being in a crowd, and how this might be improved. The crowd user focus groups revealed differences in factors affecting crowd satisfaction, varying according to age and user expectations. Greater differences existed between crowd users, than across crowd situations, highlighting the importance of identifying expected crowd members when planning individual events. Additionally, venue design, organisation, safety and security concerns were found to highly affect crowd satisfaction, irrespective of group differences or crowd situations, showing the importance of these issues when considering crowd satisfaction for all crowd events, for any crowd members. Stakeholder interviews examining crowds from another perspective suggested that overall safety was a high priority due to legal obligations, in order to protect venue reputation. Whereas, comfort and satisfaction received less attention within the organisation of crowd events due to budget considerations, and a lack of concern as to the importance of such issues. Moreover, communication and management systems were sometimes inadequate to ensure compliance with internal procedures. In addition a lack of usable guidance was seen to be available to those responsible for organising crowd situations. Eleven themes were summarised from the data, placed in order of frequency of references to the issues: health and safety, public order, communication, physical environment, public relations, crowd movement, event capacity, facilities, satisfaction, comfort, and crowd characteristics. Results were in line with the weighting of the issues within the literature, with health and safety receiving the most attention, and comfort and satisfaction less attention. These results were used to form the basis of observational checklists for event observations across various crowd situations. Event observations took two forms: observing the role of public and private security, and observing crowd events from the user perspective. Observations within public and private security identified seven general themes: communication, anticipating crowd reaction, information, storage, training, role confusion, financial considerations and professionalism. Findings questioned the clarity of the differing roles of public and private security, and understanding of these differences. Also the increasing use of private over public security within crowd event security, and the differing levels of training and experience within public and private security were identified. Event observations identified fifteen common themes drawn from the data analysis: communication, public order, comfort, facilities, queuing systems, transportation, crowd movement, design, satisfaction, health and safety, public relations, event capacity, time constraints, encumbrances, and cultural differences. Key issues included the layout of the event venue together with the movement and monitoring of crowd users, as well as the availability of facilities in order to reduce competition between crowd users, together with possible links to maintaining public order and reducing anti-social behaviour during crowd events. Findings from the focus groups, interviews, and observations were then combined (to enhance the robustness of the findings), and developed into the Crowd Satisfaction Assessment Tool (CSAT) prototype, a practical tool for event organisers to use during the planning of crowd events. In order to assess proof of concept of the CSAT, potential users (event organisers) were recruited to use the CSAT during the planning of an event they were involved in organising. Semi-structured feedback interviews were then undertaken, to gain insight into the content, usefulness, and usability of the CSAT. Separately human factors researchers were recruited to review the CSAT, providing feedback on the layout and usability of the tool. Feedback interviews suggested the CSAT was a useful concept, aiding communication, and providing organisers with a systematic and methodical structure for planning ahead, prioritising ideas, and highlighting areas of concern. The CSAT was described as being clear and easy to follow, with clear aims, and clear instructions for completion, and was felt to aid communication between the various stakeholders involved in the organisation and management of an event, allowing information to be recorded, stored and shared between stakeholders, with the aim of preventing the loss of crucial information. The thesis concludes with a summary model of the factors that influence crowd satisfaction within crowd events of various descriptions. Key elements of this are the anticipation, facilities, and planning considered before an event, influences and monitoring during an event and reflection after an event. The relevance and impact of this research is to assist the planning of crowd events, with the overall aim of improving participant satisfaction during crowd events. From a business perspective the issue is important with competition between events, the desire to encourage return to events, and to increase profit for organisers. From an ergonomics perspective, there is the imperative of improving the performance of crowd organisers and the experience of crowd users.
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A number of methods have been proposed for assessing quality of operations of pedestrian facilities on the basis of pedestrian Level of Service (LOS). Some of these methods utilize principles of vehicular traffic to evaluate pedestrian traffic operations. Other methodologies are more concerned with the facility design and walking environment than the actual pedestrian flows. In order to draw a complete picture of level of service methodologies for the pedestrian facilities it is necessary to review, compare and contrast various methods in the literature that assess quality of service for pedestrian facilities. This paper compares some of the more common and widely accepted methods for determining pedestrian LOS at sidewalks. These include the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 method, the Australian method, the Trip Quality Method, the Landis model, and the Conjoint Analysis approach. After describing the methods and their associated measured criteria, a total of 13 sidewalks are evaluated at two study sites. The study sites are located in the downtown Birmingham, Alabama area and represent pedestrian operations at urban sidewalks. The comparison provides useful information on the consistency of outcomes from the various methodologies, and identifies needs for modifications and improvements. This is particularly useful in determining possible improvements to the existing HCM 2000 methodology in the upcoming version of the Highway Capacity Manual.
Article
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This paper documents a study sponsored by the Florida Department of Transportation to develop a level-of-service (LOS) model that represents pedestrians' perceptions of how well urban arterials with sidewalks (a combination of roadway segments and intersections) meet their needs. The model incorporates traffic volumes on the adjacent roadway and exposure (i.e., crossing widths) at conflict points with intersections and driveways. Data were obtained from Walk for Science, an innovative field data collection event, and consist of participants' perceptions of how well urban arterials with sidewalks meet their needs as pedestrians. The pedestrian LOS model for roadway facilities described here is based on Pearson correlation analyses and stepwise regression modeling of about 500 combined real-time perceptions (observations) from pedestrians walking a course along streets in a typical D.S. metropolitan urban area. Study participants represented a cross section of age, gender, walking experience, and residency. Although further hypothesis testing may be conducted in a future study, the resulting general model for the pedestrian LOS of urban arterials with sidewalks has a high correlation coefficient (R2 = .70) with the average observations and is transferable to a significant number of metropolitan areas in the United States. The study reveals that traffic volumes on the adjacent roadway and the density of conflict points along the facility are the primary factors in the LOS model for pedestrians traveling along urban arterials with sidewalks.
Article
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This paper documents a study performed to develop a level-of-service (LOS) model that accurately represents pedestrians' perceptions of crossings at signalized intersections. This model incorporates perceived safety and comfort (i.e., perceived exposure and conflicts) and operations (i.e., delay and signalization). Data for the model were obtained from an innovative Walk for Science field data collection event and video simulations. The data consist of (a) participants' perceptions of safety, comfort, and operations as they walk through selected signalized intersections and (b) the design and operational characteristics of these intersections. The resulting model provides a measure of the pedestrian's perspective on how well an intersection's geometric and operational characteristics meets his or her needs. The pedestrian LOS model for intersections described in this paper is based on Pearson correlation analyses and stepwise regression modeling of approximately 800 combined real-time perceptions (observations) from pedestrians walking a course through signalized intersections in a typical U.S. metropolitan area. The resulting general model for the pedestrian LOS at intersections is highly reliable, has a high correlation coefficient (R 2 = .73) with the average observations, and is transferable to the majority of metropolitan areas in the United States. Primary factors in the pedestrian LOS model for intersections include right-turn-on-red volumes for the street being crossed, permissive left turns from the street parallel to the crosswalk, motor vehicle volume on the street being crossed, midblock 85th percentile speed of the vehicles on the street being crossed, number of lanes being crossed, pedestrian's delay, and presence or absence of right-turn channelization islands.
Article
In an effort to reduce the road fatalities, the Land Transport Safety Authority (LTSA) of New Zealand initiated a hard-hitting anti-drink driving advertising campaigns in October 1995 that attracted considerable public debate. Leading critics were Macpherson and Lewis (1996, 1998) who found little or no evidence to suggest that the campaign changed drink-driving behaviour in New Zealand. Based on their results, Rotfeld (1999) concluded that the advertising campaign was misplaced. Using the same data, however, this study finds a significant reduction in drink-driving behaviour that may be attributed to the advertising campaign.
Article
The study described was conducted to measure walking distances to and waiting times at bus stops during summer and winter conditions, and to develop refined measures for urban planning purposes including the primary catchment area of a bus stop, detour factors, and to determine the effect of inclement weather on bus passenger walking and waiting times.
Article
The findings of a study of pedestrian flow characteristics in Hong Kong are described. The objective was to collect walking distance, speed, flow, and density data on indoor and outdoor walkways, signalized crosswalks, light rail transit crosswalks, and stairways. The data collected were used to develop speed-flow-density relationships for each type of pedestrian link. In addition, pedestrian characteristics from various international cities are compared. The data collected and the relationships established could be used as the basis for the development of pedestrian design standards and simulation models for Hong Kong.
Article
Preface Introduction Transportation is integral to developed societies. It is responsible for personal mobility which includes access to services, goods, and leisure. It is also a key element in the delivery of consumer goods. Regional, state, national, and the world economy rely upon the efficient and safe functioning of transportation facilities. In addition to the sweeping influence transportation has on economic and social aspects of modern society, transportation issues pose challenges to professionals across a wide range of disciplines including transportation engineers, urban and regional planners, economists, logisticians, systems and safety engineers, social scientists, law enforcement and security professionals, and consumer theorists. Where to place and expand transportation infrastructure, how to safely and efficiently operate and maintain infrastructure, and how to spend valuable resources to improve mobility, access to goods, services and healthcare, are among the decisions made routinely by transportation-related professionals. Many transportation-related problems and challenges involve stochastic processes that are influenced by observed and unobserved factors in unknown ways. The stochastic nature of these problems is largely a result of the role that people play in transportation. Transportation-system users are routinely faced with decisions in contexts such as what transportation mode to use, which vehicle to purchase, whether or not to participate in a vanpool or telecommute, where to relocate a business, whether or not to support a proposed light-rail project and whether to utilize traveler information before or during a trip. These decisions involve various degrees of uncertainty. Transportation-system managers and governmental agencies face similar stochastic problems in determining how to measure and compare system measures of performance, where to invest in safety improvements, how to efficiently operate transportation systems and how to estimate transportation demand. As a result of the complexity, diversity, and stochastic nature of transportation problems, the methodological toolbox required of the transportation analyst must be broad. Approach The third edition of Statistical and Econometric Methods offers an expansion over the first and second editions in response to the recent methodological advancements in the fields of econometrics and statistics, to address reader and reviewer comments on the first and second editions, and to provide an increasing range of examples and corresponding data sets. This book describes and illustrates some of the statistical and econometric tools commonly used in transportation data analysis. Every book must strike an appropriate balance between depth and breadth of theory and applications, given the intended audience. This book targets two general audiences. First, it can serve as a textbook for advanced undergraduate, Masters, and Ph.D. students in transportation-related disciplines including engineering, economics, urban and regional planning, and sociology. There is sufficient material to cover two 3-unit semester courses in statistical and econometric methods. Alternatively, a one semester course could consist of a subset of topics covered in this book. The publisher’s web-site contains the numerous datasets used to develop the examples in this book so that readers can use them to reinforce the modeling techniques discussed throughout the text. The book also serves as a technical reference for researchers and practitioners wishing to examine and understand a broad range of statistical and econometric tools required to study transportation problems. It provides a wide breadth of examples and case studies, covering applications in various aspects of transportation planning, engineering, safety, and economics. Sufficient analytical rigor is provided in each chapter so that fundamental concepts and principles are clear and numerous references are provided for those seeking additional technical details and applications. Data-Driven Methods vs. Statistical and Econometric Methods In the analysis of transportation data, four general methodological approaches have become widely applied: data-driven methods, traditional statistical methods, heterogeneity models, and causal inference models (the latter three of which fall into the category of statistical and econometric methods and are covered in this text). Each of these methods have an implicit trade-off between practical prediction accuracy and their ability to uncover underlying causality. Data-driven methods include a wide range of techniques including those relating to data mining, artificial intelligence, machine learning, neural networks, support vector machines, and others. Such methods have the potential to handle extremely large amounts of data and provide a high level of prediction accuracy. On the down side, such methods may not necessarily provide insights into underlying causality (truly understanding the effects of specific factors on accident likelihoods and their resulting injury probabilities). Traditional statistical methods provide reasonable predictive capability and some insight into causality, but they are eclipsed in both prediction and providing causal insights by other approaches Heterogeneity models extend traditional statistical and econometric methods to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity (unobserved factors that may be influencing the process of interest). Causal-inference models use statistical and econometric methods to focus on underlying causality, often sacrificing predictive capability to do so. Even though data-driven methods are often a viable alternative to the analysis of transportation data if one is interested solely in prediction and not interested in uncovering causal effects, because the focus of this book is uncovering issues of causality using statistical and econometric methods, data-driven methods are not covered. Chapter topics and organization Part I of the book provides statistical fundamentals (Chapters 1 and 2). This portion of the book is useful for refreshing fundamentals and sufficiently preparing students for the following sections. This portion of the book is targeted for students who have taken a basic statistics course but have since forgotten many of the fundamentals and need a review. Part II of the book presents continuous dependent variable models. The chapter on linear regression (Chapter 3) devotes additional pages to introduce common modeling practice—examining residuals, creating indicator variables, and building statistical models—and thus serves as a logical starting chapter for readers new to statistical modeling. The subsection on Tobit and censored regressions is new to the second edition. Chapter 4 discusses the impacts of failing to meet linear regression assumptions and presents corresponding solutions. Chapter 5 deals with simultaneous equation models and presents modeling methods appropriate when studying two or more interrelated dependent variables. Chapter 6 presents methods for analyzing panel data—data obtained from repeated observations on sampling units over time, such as household surveys conducted several times to a sample of households. When data are collected continuously over time, such as hourly, daily, weekly, or yearly, time series methods and models are often needed and are discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. New to the 2nd edition is explicit treatment of frequency domain time series analysis including Fourier and Wavelets analysis methods. Latent variable models, discussed in Chapter 9, are used when the dependent variable is not directly observable and is approximated with one or more surrogate variables. The final chapter in this section, Chapter 10, presents duration models, which are used to model time-until-event data as survival, hazard, and decay processes. Part III in the book presents count and discrete dependent variable models. Count models (Chapter 11) arise when the data of interest are non-negative integers. Examples of such data include vehicles in a queue and the number of vehicle crashes per unit time. Zero inflation—a phenomenon observed frequently with count data—is discussed in detail and a new example and corresponding data set have been added in this 2nd edition. Logistic Regression is commonly used to model probabilities of binary outcomes, is presented in Chapter 12, and is unique to the 2nd edition. Discrete outcome models are extremely useful in many study applications, and are described in detail in Chapter 13. A unique feature of the book is that discrete outcome models are first considered statistically, and then later related to economic theories of consumer choice. Ordered probability models (a new chapter for the second edition) are presented in Chapter 14. Discrete-continuous models are presented in Chapter 15 and demonstrate that interrelated discrete and continuous data need to be modeled as a system rather than individually, such as the choice of which vehicle to drive and how far it will be driven. Finally, Part IV of the book contains massively expanded chapter on random parameters models (Chapter 16), a new chapter on latent class models (Chapter 17), a new chapter on bivariate and multivariate dependent variable models (Chapter 18) and an expanded chapter on Bayesian statistical modeling (Chapter 19). Models that deal with unobserved heterogeneity (random parameters models and latent class models) have become the standard statistical approach in many transportation sub-disciplines and Chapters 16 and 17 provide an important introduction to these methods. Bivariate and multivariate dependent variable models are encountered in many transportation data analyses. Although the inter-relation among dependent variables has often been ignored in transportation research, the methodologies presented in Chapter 18 show how such inter-dependencies can be accurately modeled. The chapter on Bayesian statistical models (Chapter 19) arises as a result of the increasing prevalence of Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods (an analytically convenient method for estimating complex Bayes’ models). This chapter presents the basic theory of Bayesian models, of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods of sampling, and presents two separate examples of Bayes’ models. The appendices are complementary to the remainder of the book. Appendix A presents fundamental concepts in statistics which support analytical methods discussed. Appendix B provides tables of probability distributions used in the book, while Appendix C describes typical uses of data transformations common to many statistical methods. While the book covers a wide variety of analytical tools for improving the quality of research, it does not attempt to teach all elements of the research process. Specifically, the development and selection of research hypotheses, alternative experimental design methodologies, the virtues and drawbacks of experimental versus observational studies, and issues involved with the collection of data are not discussed. These issues are critical elements in the conduct of research, and can drastically impact the overall results and quality of the research endeavor. It is considered a prerequisite that readers of this book are educated and informed on these critical research elements in order to appropriately apply the analytical tools presented herein. Simon P. Washnington Mathew G. Karlaftis Fred L. Mannering Panigiotis Ch. Anastasopoulos
Article
This paper investigates the bi-directional flow characteristics at signalized crosswalk facilities in Hong Kong. Pedestrian flow measurements were conducted at selected signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong urban area with and without the Light Rail Transit (LRT) railway tracks in the median of the carriageway. The pedestrian speed-flow functions for these crosswalk facilities were calibrated. The relationships between the walking speed at capacity and directional distribution of pedestrian flow (or flow ratio) are determined. The effects of different flow ratio on the effective capacity are also investigated. The bi-directional pedestrian flow effects on signalized crosswalk facilities with LRT tracks are found more significant than those without LRT tracks. The result could be used as a basis to improve the assessment of the crosswalk's capacity and to determine the design walking speeds under different flow ratios at signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong and in other Asian cities with similar environments.
Article
This article estimated a multinomial logit model to identify the factors determining the severity of pedestrian–vehicle crashes in South Korea. Our results showed that relative to minor crashes, fatal and serious crashes were associated with collisions involving heavy vehicles; drivers who were drunk, male or under the age of 65; pedestrians who were over the age of 65 or female; and pedestrians who were hit in the middle of the road, on high speed roads, in inclement weather conditions, at night, on road links, in tunnels, on bridges, or on wider roads.
Article
This paper presents a sidewalk pavement width design method for making more pedestrian friendly and walk-inspiring sidewalk pavements in the urban area. Instead of using the current sidewalk pavement width design standard that usually leads to having minimum values, this research investigated pedestrians’ preferences on the levels of service, surveyed actual foot path trajectories in the sidewalk pavements, and observed pedestrian movement characteristics in the streets. Further, these investigation results were summarized to propose a new urban sidewalk pavement width determination procedure. The proposed procedure was applied in a case study site in Seoul, and its application resulted in a much higher pedestrian level of service. It is anticipated that the proposed method should be of service in both planning and retrofitting urban streets to make more pedestrian sensitive street designs.
Article
This paper attempts to develop a level of service (LOS) model for signalized intersection crosswalks for pedestrians in China by using the pedestrians' perceptions of comfort and safety. First, three potential factors influencing pedestrian LOS at crosswalks are summarized: traffic conflicts, crossing facilities, and delay. Second, collected data for the model include (a) information on 653 participants' real-time sense of comfort and safety when crossing 10 selected intersections and (b) the design and operational characteristics of the selected intersections. The selected crosswalks are typical of those prevalent in urban areas of China, and the participants in the survey covered a broad cross section of the Chinese population of pedestrians. With the survey data, a Pearson correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis were carried out to develop a reliable pedestrian LOS model for signalized intersections, suitable for use in the vast majority of Chinese urban areas. The study revealed that the factors significantly influencing pedestrian LOS at signalized intersections included rightturning vehicle and bicycle volume from the street parallel to the crosswalk during pedestrian green time, permissive left-turning vehicles and bicycles approaching from the street parallel to the crosswalk, through bicycle volume on the street parallel to the crosswalk, and pedestrians' delay.
Article
The Danish Road Directorate sponsored a study to develop methods for objectively quantifying pedestrian and bicyclist stated satisfaction with road sections between intersections. The results provide a measure of how well urban and rural roads accommodate pedestrian and bicycle travel. To determine how existing traffic operations, geometric conditions, and other variables affect pedestrians’ and bicyclists’ satisfaction, 407 randomly selected Danes were shown video clips from 56 roadway segments filmed by a pedestrian walking and a bicyclist riding along the road. Respondents rated the roadway segments on a six-point scale ranging from very dissatisfied to very satisfied. This resulted in 7,724 pedestrian ratings and 7,596 bicyclist ratings. Roadway segments and video clips were described by 150 variables. Pedestrian and bicyclist satisfaction models were developed by cumulative logit regression of the ratings and the variables. The models included variables that related significantly (p ≤ .05) to the satisfaction ratings. Variables that significantly influenced the level of satisfaction were motorized traffic volume and speed; urban land uses; rural landscapes; the types and widths of pedestrian and bicycle facilities; the numbers and widths of the drive lanes; the volumes of pedestrians, bicyclists, and parked cars; and the presence of median, trees, and bus stops. The models returned the percentage splits of the six levels of satisfaction. These splits were then transformed into a level of service. The models provide traffic planners and others the ability to rate roadways according to pedestrians’ and bicyclists’ satisfaction and may be used in the process of evaluating existing roads, designing new roads, or redesigning existing roads.
Article
The Florida Department of Transportation is in the process of developing a statistically estimated model of pedestrian quality of service for midblock street crossings as part of its Multimodal Quality of Service Program. This model is to be used in evaluating the level of service of street segments for pedestrian street crossing. The actual development of the model, including methodological issues explored, data collection, and model calibration and validation, is reported separately. A process was used to select potential determinants of perceived pedestrian quality of service for midblock street crossings. This process is structured and involves two steps. The first step involves the selection of a set of potential determinants through a theoretical analysis of pedestrian behavior for street crossing. The theoretical consideration ensures that these potential determinants have a sound behavioral foundation. The second step involves narrowing down this theoretical set through a practical analysis of planning needs and data requirements by an advisory committee. This practical consideration ensures that the final set of potential determinants and the model both are practically relevant.
Article
A level-of-service methodology for pedestrians crossing streets at midblock locations was developed. The methodology can provide a measure of effectiveness that indicates pedestrians' perceived quality of service in crossing roads at midblock locations. An objective was to determine what variables are correlated with pedestrians' perceived quality of service for midblock crossings. A statistical calibration and validation process involved the collection of actual site characteristics and stated levels of quality of service by a sample of persons at a selection of midblock crossing locations. The variables included those that are most important to the Florida Department of Transportation and local governments for the purpose of improving pedestrian mobility, safety, and livability. Results showed that the levels of crossing difficulty tend to increase with the width of painted medians, signal spacing, and turning movements. They also showed that both the presence of pedestrian signals and cycle length are statistically significant, although they were hypothesized to be indeterminate. Finally, the results further indicated that people tend to find that the presence of pedestrian signals lowers their level of crossing difficulty.
Article
The aim of this study was to examine pedestrian behavior and suggest guidelines for analyzing pedestrian traffic flow in narrow urban streets with mixed traffic. For the analysis of pedestrian behavior, 15 streets around an urban railway station in Tokyo were surveyed, and several parameters were obtained, such as pedestrian paths around stationary obstacles; share of pedestrians using the sidewalk as a factor of street environment and traffic conditions: and influence distance of and for bicycles and cars. With respect to planning guidelines, the authors have simultaneously defined a new index of time-space occupancy (Qt-si) of traffic modes in mixed-traffic conditions that considers the occupancy of time and space in the time-space diagram. Also, a new concept for level-of-service standards has been suggested for mixed-traffic conditions that employs the concept of time-space occupancy of each mode and hindrance/conflict between modes.
Article
A quantifiable basis for developing design guidelines for pedestrian access to light-rail transit (LRT) stations is provided for planners based on observations in Calgary, Canada. Calgary's LRT system, which began operations in 1981, has been operating for long enough for walk- ing patterns to and from its stations to become established. Interviews were conducted with 1,800 peak-hour LRT users about the origins and destinations of their LRT trips. Those who walked to or from a station were asked to point out on a map their approximate origins or destina- tions. The distances were then measured off the maps. Walking distance guidelines were developed for central business district (CBD), transfer and local stations. Catchment area maps were produced, and the rela- tionship between reported walking time and measured walking distance was calculated. Also compared are the walking distances at LRT sta- tions and the walking distances at bus stops. The research strongly indi- cates that people walk farther to reach an LRT station than a bus stop. Using bus walking standards would result in an underestimate of LRT walking distances by about half. For the city of Calgary the average walking distance to suburban stations is 649 m with a 75th-percentile distance of 840 m. At CBD stations the average walking distance is 326 m and the 75th-percentile distance is 419 m.
Article
Sidewalk is an important part of urban walking traffic system, the service quality affects the route townsmen choose when they go out. Differently from the traditional research, which takes traffic flow operation as the assessing standard for the level of service for vehicles, taking pedestrian comfort and safety into consideration, this paper has studied the methods of assessing pedestrian level of service by analyzing the relationship between the pedestrians' subjective perceptions and the quality of the road physical facilities as well as the traffic flow operation. On the basis of a mass of data and using statistical software SPSS, this paper established the primary factors which influenced the pedestrian level of service for sidewalk and then developed the step-wise regression model along with the pedestrian level of service categories on the basis of the main factors.
Article
This paper proposes, for the first time, a new set of level-of-service (LOS) standards for signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong commercial/ shopping areas which explicitly take the bi-directional pedestrian flow effects into account. An interview survey technique which utilized pedestrian stated preference was used to determine the respective congestion boundaries for each service level. This paper defines explicitly the LOS boundaries for different levels of bi-directional flow regarding area occupancy, pedestrian flow, and walking speed. The boundaries range from strong effect (0.1-0.5 flow ratios) on the minor flow direction to a mild effect (0.5-1.0 flow ratios) on the major flow direction. These results are complementary to and are in keeping with those LOS standards for walkways reported in previous studies which did not account for the effects of bi-directional flow. The determined perceived pedestrian LOS under bi-directional flow is expected to be directly applicable to Hong Kong or other Asian cities with similar pedestrian physical characteristics and land use. Journal of Transportation Engineering
Article
Safe pedestrian movement is essential in all cities, but particularly in such densely populated cities as Hong Kong. This paper aims to investigate the levels of service (LOS) for stairways in Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations. Space requirements and several qualitative factors were gleaned from the observation of pedestrian preferences and behavior. A pilot study was carried out before the pedestrian preference interview survey was conducted in a Hong Kong MTR station. On the basis of the survey results, six LOS design standards for stairways in Hong Kong MTR stations are proposed. The survey results are also compared with previous research findings. Lighting/clear visibility on the Hong Kong MTR station stairways is found to be major factor of concern, with interest in the environment being of low priority. The proposed LOS standards can be used as a basis for the design and development of pedestrian stairways, both in Hong Kong MTR stations and in stations of other Asian cities with similar environments.
Article
This study analyzed properties and characteristics of pedestrian flow on sidewalks. Data were collected in the central business district of Haifa, Israel, with the aid of a videotape recorder and a digital clock. Walking speeds for men were found to be significantly greater than speeds for women; all speeds were found to be inversely related to densities. One- and three-regime linear speed-density regression models were calibrated and evaluated, and reasoning is given to support the adoption of the three regime model for speed predictions. Level of service definitions are proposed based on these analyses, and suggestions for their use in planning and design of pedestrian walkways are made.
Article
The objective of this study was to understand and quantify better the influence of the overall level of service (LOS) of the urban walking environment on pedestrian route choice behavior. A methodology for estimating the overall LOS of pedestrian walkways and crosswalks was developed on the basis of the concept of total utility value, which comes from a stated preference survey. Each sidewalk and crosswalk link was assigned an overall LOS according to its operational and geometric characteristics determined from field measurements. For analysis of pedestrian behavior, this study used data from a revealed preference survey on individual route choice behavior. A geographic information system network database was used to store the characteristics of the routes that pedestrians used. Network analysis with the ArcGIS program was used to analyze the routes, which included determination of the shortest-path routes and the optimized-LOS-path routes between origin-destination pairs. A comparative analysis of the actual routes and the estimated alternative routes was performed. On the basis of the results, a multinomial logit model was developed to express the route choice behaviors of pedestrians quantitatively. The model results indicate that pedestrians choose routes not only for distance but also for the overall LOS of sidewalks and crosswalks. On longer travel paths, pedestrians divert from the shortest-path route and are found to use sidewalks and crosswalks with high LOS. On shorter routes, pedestrians tend not to avoid sidewalks or crosswalks with low LOS. This analysis suggests that efforts to accommodate pedestrians in urban areas should focus on improving the walking environment of the road network.
Article
Short term manual counts are used in many pedestrian studies to overcome time, cost, and equipment constraints. Depending on the count period, several techniques are available for expanding short-term counts with the objective of estimating pedestrian volume over extended periods of time. When flow is highly variable and only a few short-term counts can be conducted, the expanded values can contain large margins of error. This paper presents the findings of two studies on the development and verification of models for expanding short-term (five-, 10-, 15-minute) counts. Using data from the Central Business Districts of Calgary and Montreal, it is shown that such models can explain up to 90% of the variation in expected volumes. The paper also presents a methodology based on Bayesian theory for minimizing errors resulting from short-term counts with large variances. The methodology, which takes into consideration the variance as well as the number of short-term counts, also enables planners to update the short-term counts on the basis of subsequent surveys.
Article
This note investigates the important attributes relating to the crowding effects at the Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations in Hong Kong. Data was collected at two sets of three MTR stations to study the responses of the passengers due to the discomfort at crowded vehicles and platforms. Stated preference surveys were used to study the effects of passenger discomfort measures.
Article
A method is needed to objectively quantify pedestrians' perception of safety and comfort in the roadside environment. This quantification, or mathematical relationship, would provide a measure of how well roadways accommodate pedestrian travel. Essentially, it would provide a measure of pedestrian level of service (LOS) within a roadway environment. Such a measure of walking conditions would greatly aid in roadway cross-sectional design and would help evaluate and prioritize the needs of existing roadways for sidewalk retrofit construction. Furthermore, the measure can be used to evaluate traffic-calming strategies and streetscape designs for their effectiveness in improving the pedestrian environment. Such a measure would make it possible to merge pedestrian facility programming into the mainstream of transportation planning, design, and construction. To meet the need for such a method, as well as to fulfill a state mandate to establish levels of service standards for all transportation modes, the Florida Department of Transportation sponsored the development of the Pedestrian LOS Model. The model was developed through a stepwise multivariable regression analysis of 1,250 observations from an event that placed 75 people on a roadway walking course in the Pensacola, Florida, metropolitan area. The Pedestrian LOS Model incorporates the statistically significant roadway and traffic variables that describe pedestrians' perception of safety or comfort in the roadway environment between intersections. It is similar in approach to methods used to assess automobile operators' level of service established in the Highway Capacity Manual.
Article
A major shift in the way we design neighborhoods is taking place across America and street design is re-emerging as a major element of neighborhood street engineering, town planning and real estate development. These guidelines identify ways to design new neighborhoods that will be more interactive, walkable, enjoyable and livable.
Article
In recent years, simulation has become an essential tool for planning, designing, and managing terminal operations. Simulation modeling of various aspects related to the dynamic nature of the pedestrian/passenger behavior within a transport terminal can effectively assist in the analysis, evaluation, emergency response planning, and decision support phases of the terminal's operation. In this paper, the development of an object-oriented environment that enables both the graphical description and simulation of pedestrian traffic flows at the microscopic level is discussed. The simulation environment provides generation capabilities so that a terminal station model is directly formed on the basis of preconstructed component models. Essential experimentation capabilities, including graphical representation, are provided for pedestrian-oriented and system-oriented measures of interest with explicit emphasis on the level of service. A case study for a 4–level station in the new Athens subway system is also used to demonstrate the potential and functionality of the simulation environment.
Article
This paper presents the safety effects of highway terrain types in a crash model developed for South Korean rural national roads. This research was necessary because despite terrain type being one of the major factors determining the design speed of highways, their specific safety effects on actual crash occurrences and severity have not been fully investigated. It is the author’s view that when the design speed is changed, the terrain types will have some safety effects. To check this view, a statistical analysis was performed with an ordinal logistic regression model in order to relate several independent variables of highway geometric elements such as terrain type, tangent length, curve length, radius of curvature and vertical grade to actual crash occurrences. Through this investigation, terrain type was found to be a significant independent variable that explains crash occurrences for rural arterial roads in South Korea. Next, an attempt was made to develop crash cost estimation models for each terrain type. This was necessary because practicing engineers should be able to estimate the impacts of using different highway geometric designs on accrued crash costs. The models developed indicate that highway radius of curvature and median designs influence crash costs noticeably in flat areas, whereas vertical grade and shoulder width do so in mountainous areas. These findings seem to capture more detailed crash trends using different highway geometric designs and they should be helpful in designing safer highways. Keywordshighway terrain types–crash model–rural roads
Article
Safe and comfortable walking is essential for pedestrian movement in modern urban transportation systems. Since pedestrian traffic cannot be restricted in some specified streets, some measures for pedestrians have to be taken everywhere in urban areas. This research describes a way to evaluate ordinary sidewalks, and two different methods are proposed. One is an evaluation based on pedestrian behaviour and the other is an evaluation based on pedestrian opinion. Using the indices of pedestrian density and sidewalk width, we can estimate the level of service of sidewalk usage. But generally speaking, since it is not often that a sidewalk is insufficient to deal with pedestrian flow, another approach is necessary for its evaluation, that is, pedestrian awareness of sidewalks must be taken into account. The former method is recommended for all sidewalks, especially with comparatively heavy pedestrian traffic, and the latter method is recommended for ones with light pedestrian traffic.
Article
This thesis describes the developement of a new type of simulation tool for the assessment of designs of public transport facilities (stations, airports) and other public spaces with intensive pedestrian flows. Since the available space for such facilities is increasingly under pressure, the space efficiency and walking comfort is becoming more and more important. The developed simulation tool provides designers and decision-makers with all kinds of quantitative information about the expected quality of pedestrian (traffic) flows such as travel times, waiting times, queue building, preferred routes, visits to shops and counters, etc. This information is very useful in comparing multiple designs as well as to optimise a specific design. The simulation model also is meant to improve schedules of public transport services at interchange nodes by minimising passenger transfer times. To that end, special attention is paid to the modelling of boarding and alighting processes. New insights about walking have been gained by performing unique large-scale laboratory experiments in which large groups of subjects were assigned various walking tasks, such as high volume crossing flows and walking through bottlenecks until flow breaks down. Specific walking and route choice models are developed using observations of passengers on platforms (such as in Delft) and route choice through the station (such as in Delft and Breda). The tool has proven its value in the analysis of new designs of the future Rotterdam Central Station and performance tests of the new Breskens-Vlissingen ferry terminals.
Article
This paper presents a new pedestrian simulation (PS) model for signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong. This PS model is capable of estimating the variations of walking speed particularly on the effects of bi-directional pedestrian flows so as to determine the minimum required duration of pedestrian crossing time. Video records taken from the observational surveys at the selected crosswalk in urban area were used to extract the required data for model calibration. It was found that the design walking speed for signalized crosswalks should be varied by the effects of the bi-directional pedestrian flows. It was also interesting to note that the negative impact of the bi-directional flow effects (ranging from uni-directional to bi-directional pedestrian flows) on the chance of pedestrian crossing the crosswalk is increasing from free-flow to at-capacity flow conditions. The new PS model is also validated using an independent data set so as to examine the reliability of the simulation results. The validation results show that the new PS model can provide an accurate evaluation on the changes of walking speed and its standard deviation under different scenarios with particular emphasis on the effects of the bi-directional pedestrian flows. The advancement of this PS model can be applied to assess the effects of each improvement measure and to evaluate the benefits of each scenario in practice.
Article
Since their implementation, the drink driving enforcement and publicity campaigns in the Australian State of Victoria have been extensively evaluated and the mixed results obtained have generated much public debate. Using the same data from previous studies, this paper re-evaluated the effectiveness of the campaigns and tested several model assumptions and specifications. In general, the results obtained were robust and showed that the campaigns were effective in reducing serious crashes during high alcohol hours.
Pedestrian level of service for sidewalks in China
  • Y Bian
  • W Wang
  • J Lu
  • Ma J Tan
Bian Y, Wang W, Lu J, Ma J and Tan D. Pedestrian level of service for sidewalks in China. 86 th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 2007.
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