The Impact of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda: Lessons from a case study in the Rwenzori Mountains
Abstract
Coffee is a major cash crop in Uganda, but research shows that the smallholder farmers who produce 90 of it could have their already vulnerable livelihoods made more vulnerable by climate change. Oxfam's research project interviewed coffee farmers in the Rwenzori Mountains and found that they are aware that the climate is changing and becoming less predictable, and have used various adaptation strategies. But for Arabica coffee, which can only be grown at high altitudes in Uganda, climate change and rising temperatures are likely to further restrict the areas in which it can be grown. This report makes recommendations for adapting coffee production in Uganda to reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and to reduce the risks that smallholder farmers will fall further into poverty.
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- The interaction affected the different insect pest taxa differently; in the case of scale insects and mealybugs, the highest occurrence was on coffee trees with no shading but close to the natural area while the reverse was true for aphids, where the highest incidence was on coffee plants under full shade furthest from the natural area. Because scale insects and mealybugs are more important than aphids in coffee production in this area and in sub-Saharan Africa in general (Hillocks et al. 1999; Damon 2000; Hillocks 2000; Jaramillo et al. 2006; Bigirimana et al. 2012; Jassogne et al. 2013), farms far from natural area and at lower altitude would benefit most by increasing the level of shading on their farms. Incidentally , spiders that were found to be associated with aphids in this study were most common in highly shaded coffee far from the natural area and at low altitude.
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The research was conducted to assess the effect of water management regimes and/or rice genotypes on occurrence of insect pests and diseases of rice in Uganda. The study was conducted in phased field trials under natural conditions during the second rainy season of 2012 and the first rainy season of 2013. The trials were laid out in a Randomised Complete Block Design arranged as a split plot with three replications. Water management regimes (alternate wetting and drying-AWD, continuous flooding-CF and continuous drying-CD) constituted the main-plots and rice genotypes the sub-plots. Results indicated that the stalked-eyed fly (Diopsis spp) and African rice gall midge (Orseolia oryzivora) were the most encountered insect pests and both pests occurred highest in CF fields. Rice blast, brown spot, grain rot, rice yellow mottle virus (RYMV) and sheath rot were the diseases recorded in rice during the study. Rice blast and brown spot were the most prevalent diseases (>10% incidence), and brown spot was most prevalent under the AWD regime whereas RYMV was most prevalent in the CF regime. The level of occurrence of rice blast and RYMV recorded in the different water management regimes was dependent on the rice genotype. Generally, different genotypes had different insect pest/diseases occurrence profiles. The implication of these findings therefore is that for effective integrated pest management, knowledge of the most limiting pest/disease is important in deciding the appropriate water management regime. However, further experimental trials need to be conducted in different agro-ecological zones to verify these findings. Keywords: Alternate wetting and drying; rice genotypes; disease incidence and severity.- Similarly, bananas have ability to withstand dry spells. According to Jassogne et al. (2013) the permanent canopy, root systems, and mulch from the banana plants prevent soil erosion and degradation, thus making the crop more adaptable to climate variations.
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Given the challenges facing African agriculture resulting from climate-induced stresses, building resilience is a priority. Seed systems are important for enhancing such resilience as seed security has direct links to food security, and resilient livelihoods in general. Using data from a case study in West Nile region in Uganda, we studied practices in farmer seed systems and decisions, particularly in response to climate-induced stress. Results helped to generate recommendations for enhancing seed system resilience. We used social-ecological framework and multinomial logit model to analyze seed systems and factors influencing farmers' decisions about seed use respectively. Farmers ranked drought as the most important climate factor affecting crop production. With over 50% of farmer seed sourced on farm, the effect of climate factors on seed system functioning was perceived in relation to diminishing levels in quantity and quality of yield. Decline in yield affected farmer seed saving, increased grain prices due to high demand, affecting seed availability and affordability. The relative importance of seed sources varied during normal and stress periods, and by crop. Farmers tended to shift from farm-saved seed to social networks and local markets during stress periods. Local Seed Businesses emerged as an alternative source of planting material during stress periods. Formal seed enterprises were important in delivering improved seed, especially for maize, though their importance during stress periods diminished. Farmer characteristics and ecological factors played a role in defining the type of seed used, though their significance varied by crop. We recommend an approach that integrates farmer seed systems with the formal system in general, but specifically focusing on strengthening social networks, promoting farmer seed enterprises and crop adaptation practices at farm scale.- Independently of climate change, migration plays a key role in the ability of poor households to escape poverty by capturing opportunities for better jobs, higher pay, and improved access to services and education. Climate change may trigger more migration – for instance, if opportunities disappear because of climate impacts (for the example of coffee in Uganda, see Jassogne et al. 2013) – but may also impair migration, for example through increased conflict and exclusion (for an extended review, see Adger et al. 2014). Given the importance of mobility as an instrument for poverty reduction, it is critical that social protection does not lock people into places or occupations from which it will become harder for them to escape poverty.
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The international community aims to eradicate extreme poverty, and to do so in a sustainable manner. This chapter suggests that climate change poses a major obstacle to this challenge. Climate-related shocks and stresses – from natural disasters, to agricultural impacts and health shocks – already prevent households from escaping poverty. Poor people are disproportionally vulnerable to these shocks, because they are more exposed and lose more when affected. Climate change will worsen the situation, making it more difficult to eradicate poverty in a sustainable manner. Many policy options are available to help reduce poor people’s risk and vulnerability, including building climate-smart infrastructure, providing universal health coverage, implementing social safety nets that can be scaled-up and rapidly targeted towards people affected by a shock, and facilitating migration. With regards to natural hazards, agricultural impacts and health shocks, climate change makes existing priorities more urgent. If addressed correctly, this urgency can turn into an opportunity to reduce both current poverty and future climate vulnerability, before most of the impacts of climate change materialise. © 2015, Centre for Economic Policy Research. All rights reserved.- This is largely due to the fact that smallholder production systems in East Africa are data poor. To date, the anticipated impact of climate change on coffee production is predominantly based on studies that look at existing climate-coffee production gradients (e.g., Gay et al., 2006; Jaramillo et al., 2011; Jassogne et al., 2013), which then form the basis of suitability change maps based on downscaled Global Environmental Change (GEC) model Meinshausen et al., 2011). tions (e.g., Mwandosya et al., 1998; Davis et al., 2012; Läderach et al., 2012).
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Coffee is the world’s most valuable tropical export crop. Recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on Coffea arabica (C. arabica) production. However, quantitative production figures are necessary to provide coffee stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action. Using data from the northern Tanzanian highlands, we demonstrate for the first time that increasing night time (Tmin) temperature is the most significant climatic variable responsible for diminishing C. arabica yields between 1961 and 2012. Projecting this forward, every 1 °C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 kg ha−1 (P = 1.80e-10). According to our ARIMA model, average coffee production will drop to 145 ± 41 kg ha−1 (P = 8.45e-09) by 2060. Consequently, without adequate adaptation strategies and/or substantial external inputs, coffee production will be severely reduced in the Tanzanian highlands in the near future. Attention should also be drawn to the arabica growing regions of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia and Kenya, as substantiated time series evidence shows these areas have followed strikingly similar minimum temperature trends. This is the first study on coffee, globally, providing essential time series evidence that climate change has already had a negative impact on C. arabica yields.- Given that the major climate challenge noted in highland areas of West Nile was droughts, bananas play an important role in ensuring food security since they have ability to withstand dry spells. According to Jassogne et al. (2013) the permanent canopy, root systems, and mulch from the banana plants prevent soil erosion and degradation in Uganda's hilly landscape, thus making the crop more adaptable to current climate variations in these areas. In addition, banana coffee systems have been proved to generate more income for smallholder farmers, and can help them cope with the effects of climate change, which is the major farming system in highland areas of West Nile.
- [Show description] [Show abstract] [Hide description] [Hide abstract] DESCRIPTION: Global circulation models all forecast that climate change will increase mean temperatures and change precipitation regimes. Change in bioclimatic conditions will impact the productivity of high-value agricultural crops. As a result of this change, traditional cash crop-growing regions may disappear and new regions may become available. This is a slow process but impact will be severe. With proper site-specific crop management, agricultural production may even benefit in the future. One form of site-specific crop management is to grow crops in the best suitable locations established through cost-effective, quick and scientific methods. Such methods are suitable for developing countries like Nepal where climate change is projected to have major impacts on the farming system. In order to make sources of cash crops sustainable, farmers, farming communities, and cooperatives in the supply chain of these crops in Nepal need to know where these cash crops will grow in the future and how the suitability of current growing areas will change over time. Farmers and their associated supply chains need to develop appropriate site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies for both the short and the long term to guarantee a continuation of these various cash crops and to provide support to maintain the improved livelihoods of farmers who already invested in these commodities. This study developed a production suitability map for two major cash crops in Nepal, banana and coffee, using advanced spatial modelling combined with with extensive fieldwork and ground truthing. A spatial model of the agro-ecological suitability of banana and coffee production zones in Nepal was developed using ground data on crop plantations and farmer surveys conducted in two districts for each crop. The future changes in distribution of the climatically suitable zones for these cash crops were projected using an ensemble of climate projections derived from the results of 19 Earth System Models provided by the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition to spatial modelling, conditions of crop plantations at two districts were closely observed for each crop, including through farmer surveys and soil analysis. Soil fertility problems and nutrient deficiency in plants were identified as important components of suitability for plantations and for identifying site-specific management approaches. Two master students conducted the research on soil at plantation sites for each of the two crops representing climatically high and low suitability zones. The spatial analysis data is available online from the Asian Highlands Knowledge Platform (http:// landscapeportal.org/layers/ and http://asianhighlands.org/) to provide online access and interactive mapping of the suitable production zones and to support policy dialogue and sub-sector planning. Detailed suitable production zones for banana and coffee plantations, the impact of climate change as identified by changes in climatically suitable zone, and suitable locations for mixed cropping or intercropping of two crops are identified. It is our hope that this will help both land use planners and managers of commercial plantations to better meet the challenges of climate change in Nepal and the Asian Highlands.ABSTRACT: Global circulation models all forecast that climate change will increase mean temperatures and change precipitation regimes. Change in bioclimatic conditions will impact the productivity of high-value agricultural crops. As a result of this change, traditional cash crop-growing regions may disappear and new regions may become available. This is a slow process but impact will be severe. With proper site-specific crop management, agricultural production may even benefit in the future. One form of site-specific crop management is to grow crops in the best suitable locations established through cost-effective, quick and scientific methods. Such methods are suitable for developing countries like Nepal where climate change is projected to have major impacts on the farming system. In order to make sources of cash crops sustainable, farmers, farming communities, and cooperatives in the supply chain of these crops in Nepal need to know where these cash crops will grow in the future and how the suitability of current growing areas will change over time. Farmers and their associated supply chains need to develop appropriate site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies for both the short and the long term to guarantee a continuation of these various cash crops and to provide support to maintain the improved livelihoods of farmers who already invested in these commodities. This study developed a production suitability map for two major cash crops in Nepal, banana and coffee, using advanced spatial modelling combined with with extensive fieldwork and ground truthing. A spatial model of the agro-ecological suitability of banana and coffee production zones in Nepal was developed using ground data on crop plantations and farmer surveys conducted in two districts for each crop. The future changes in distribution of the climatically suitable zones for these cash crops were projected using an ensemble of climate projections derived from the results of 19 Earth System Models provided by the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition to spatial modelling, conditions of crop plantations at two districts were closely observed for each crop, including through farmer surveys and soil analysis. Soil fertility problems and nutrient deficiency in plants were identified as important components of suitability for plantations and for identifying site-specific management approaches. Two master students conducted the research on soil at plantation sites for each of the two crops representing climatically high and low suitability zones. The spatial analysis data is available online from the Asian Highlands Knowledge Platform (http:// landscapeportal.org/layers/ and http://asianhighlands.org/) to provide online access and interactive mapping of the suitable production zones and to support policy dialogue and sub-sector planning. Detailed suitable production zones for banana and coffee plantations, the impact of climate change as identified by changes in climatically suitable zone, and suitable locations for mixed cropping or intercropping of two crops are identified. It is our hope that this will help both land use planners and managers of commercial plantations to better meet the challenges of climate change in Nepal and the Asian Highlands.
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