The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries: L’influence des politiques familiales sur les tendances de la fécondité des pays développés
We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982–2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children’s early years is likely to facilitate parents’ choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage.
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... In addition, higher employment protection has been shown to make it easier for women to combine work and family responsibilities (Bratti et al., 2005) and to increase life satisfaction (Ochsen & Welsch, 2012), with plausible positive effects on fertility (Mencarini et al., 2018;Vignoli et al., 2020aVignoli et al., , 2020bVignoli et al., , 2020c. Nevertheless, many studies analysing the relationship between EPL and fertility found a rigid EPL to be associated with lower fertility rates (Adsera, 2004(Adsera, , 2005(Adsera, , 2011Bellani, 2020;Rovny, 2011) or not to have any significant effect (Karabchuk, 2020;Luci-Greulich & Thévenon, 2013;Vignoli et al., 2020aVignoli et al., , 2020bVignoli et al., , 2020c. Importantly, most of these studies only consider EPL as a confounding factor within models designed to test other research hypotheses. ...
... Overall, EPL seems to exert, on average, a small-to-moderate impact on fertility rates in Europe. Moreover, in line with existing research, our estimated coefficients for the control variables confirm that increases in paid maternity leave, public spending on family benefits, and women employment, positively affect fertility rates, while rising unemployment leads to lower fertility rates (Adsera, 2011;Comolli, 2017;Luci-Greulich & Thévenon, 2013;Matysiak et al., 2021;Rovny, 2011). ...
Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation—the norms and procedures regulating labour markets’ hiring and firing processes—and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment—that is, labour market dualism—negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a “rigid” employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.
... In Table 2 we show the results of the association estimation between fertility and immigration policies in 1996 and average population dynamics score, defined in the previous section, in the following decades. The regressions are reported with and without controls for covariates traditionally used in the literature (Alvarez-Diaz et al., 2018;Luci-Greulich & Thévenon, 2013), such as mean population age, urbanisation, and GDP per capita. Columns 1 and 2 report a statistical association between fertility policies in 1996 and subsequent average population dynamics in Europe. ...
While previous research has focused on the relationship between population dynamics and policies in Europe, there has been scarce attention on dynamics at the NUTS-3 level. By looking at the population measures at subnational regions in Europe we seek to identify average population dynamics since year 2000. We group subnational regions by countries in terms of average population dynamics and assess the connection between population policies in 1996 and average population dynamics in 2000–2017 using data from World Population Policy database, the UN Population Division, the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and Eurostat. We find that urban areas and Western and Northern Europe exhibit population growth whilst rural areas and Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe have more depopulating regions. Our analyses also suggest a negative association between fertility policies and population growth.
... The relevance of this literature for vertical inequality lies, of course, in the profound consequences of having children for employment, division of labor within households, and the way equivalent income per household member is calculated. Both work-family reconciliation policies (paid leave, childcare) and financial support policies to families with children (child benefits) were found associated with higher fertility in a panel study covering 18 OECD countries from 1982to 2007(Luci-Greulich & Thévenon, 2013similar conclusion in: Chapter 9 by Adema, Clarke, and Thévenon;Diprete, Mogan, Engelhardt, and Pacalova, 2003;Rovny, 2011). However, such associations were generally small and not differentiated by for instance education and income, which would be required for the study of vertical inequality. ...
This chapter develops a research agenda for examining family policy outcomes with respect to vertical economic inequality between households, arguing that family policies have wrongly been neglected as a determinant of vertical economic inequality. Three questions are central to this research agenda: who uses family policy, to what income effect, and with whom do people live? Family policies have been linked to women’s employment and earnings, and to lower vertical income inequality. Yet, the literature also makes abundantly clear that family policies come with trade-offs along the lines of gender and class, as well as Matthew effects. These mechanisms need to be better understood to integrate family policy in analyses of—and recommendation against—high and rising inequality. The challenge ahead is to understand what (combination of) family policies may be inclusive to a wide range of families across the full width of the income distribution.
... In response to concerns about low fertility, governments in some countries have implemented a range of pronatalist policies and programs, most of which have been only modestly successful at best (Luci-Greulich & Thévenon, 2013). Sociological and demographic research suggests that gendered social institutions and social norms, and the role incompatibility generated by these systems, are a central determinant of childbearing (Billingsley & Ferrarini, 2014;Goldscheider, Bernhardt, & Lappegård, 2015;McDonald, 2000). ...
Objective:
This article reviews research from the past decade on patterns, trends, and differentials in the pathway to parenthood.
Background:
Whether, and under what circumstances, people become parents has implications for individual identity, family relationships, the well-being of adults and children, and population growth and age structure. Understanding the factors that influence pathways to parenthood is central to the study of families and can inform policies aimed at changing childbearing behaviors.
Method:
This review summarizes recent trends in fertility as well as research on the predictors and correlates of childbearing, with a focus on the United States and on research most relevant to family scholars. We document fertility differentials and prevailing explanations for variation across sub-groups and discuss alternative pathways to parenthood, such as adoption. The article suggests avenues for future research, outlines emerging theoretical developments, and concludes with a discussion of fertility policy.
Results:
U.S. fertility has declined in recent years; whether fertility rates will increase is unclear. Elements of the broader social context such as the Great Recession and increasing economic inequality have impacted pathways to parenthood, and there is growing divergence in behaviors across social class. Scholars of childbearing have developed theories to better understand how childbearing is shaped by life course processes and social context.
Conclusion:
Future research on the pathways to parenthood should continue to study group differentials, refine measurement and theories, and better integrate men and couples. Childbearing research is relevant for social policy, but ideological factors impact the application of research to policy.
Одним из факторов, определяющих демографические установки населения, является демографическая политика. Показатели рождаемости между субъектами Российской Федерации существенно различаются. Нами рассматриваются регионы с наибольшими показателями суммарного коэффициента рождаемости. Гипотеза исследования предполагает наличие иных факторов, влияющих на высокие показатели рождаемости в регионах с высокой рождаемостью – специфических региональных мер поддержки семей с детьми, деятельности некоммерческих организаций и особенностей доминирующей культуры. В ходе исследования было выявлено, что на региональном уровне реализуются меры поддержки семей, но существует значительная дифференциация по объемам поддержки между рассматриваемыми регионами. Региональные меры поддержки семей с детьми в большей степени представлены в наиболее экономически устойчивых регионах, в которых наблюдаются более благоприятная динамика рождаемости. По ряду критериев некоммерческий сектор в исследуемых регионах оказывает влияние на рождаемость, но в то же время его структура в регионах существенно различается. Определены социокультурные факторы, которые могут влиять на репродуктивные установки: религиозные, этнические традиции коренного населения, формы семейно-родовой взаимопомощи. Полученные результаты являются дискуссионными и требуют дальнейших исследований по данной тематике.
One of the factors determining demographic attitudes is demographic policy. Birth rates vary significantly between regions of the Russian Federation. The article considers the regions with the highest total fertility rate. The hypothesis of the study suggests the presence of other factors affecting the birth rate in regions with high birth rates – specific regional support for families with children, non-profit organizations activities and the dominant culture peculiarities. The results of the study showed that the regions are implementing measures to support families, but they are more represented in the most economically stable regions, that have more favorable fertility dynamics. According to a number of criteria, the non-profit sector in the studied regions has favorable indicators, but at the same time, its structure in the regions differs significantly. Sociocultural factors that can influence reproductive attitudes have been identified: religious, indigenous population’ ethnic traditions, family and tribal mutual assistance. The obtained results are debatable and require further research on this topic.
This study investigates how to define and measure inclusivity in Italy's early childhood education and care (ECEC) services, bringing to light the gap between legislative principles and local/regional applications. The Italian legislative decree n. 65/2017 prescribes inclusivity in ECEC, defined as being open to all children and indicating it as a top priority. To delve into this concept, we propose a two-step model. First, a latent trait model estimates an inclusivity index as a latent variable. Then, a mixed quantile model examines the distribution of this novel latent inclusivity index across Italian regions. Our findings reveal a substantial variation in inclusivity across Italy. In addition, a proper indicator based on the latent inclusivity index defined in the first step is provided at the NUTS-3 level using the empirical best predictor approach. From our analysis, public facilities demonstrate a higher level of inclusivity compared to their private counterparts. Despite these challenges, we are compelled to identify positive scenarios that can serve as models for regions facing more critical situations. Besides its methodological advancement, this paper provides policymakers and stakeholders with an evident call to action, offering valuable insights into the inclusivity landscape of Italian ECEC services. It underscores the urgent need to standardize the accessibility characteristics of ECEC services throughout Italy to ensure equitable access for all children.
The primary goal of the evaluation is to ensure the product's quality by locating and managing "out of trend" (OOT) areas, utilising various techniques in the pharmaceutical sector. Regression control charts, time points, and slope control charts can all be used to identify or detect OOT. At the time of handling, OOT is divided into three categories: analytical alert, process control alert, and compliance alert. The electrical OOT Tracking Software from Ample Logic, created using low-code technology, is used to manage OOT. Identification of OOT stability results is an increasingly important topic in the pharmaceutical industry. In a perfect world, finding or detecting an OOT would be easy. However, an oversimplified system might not be sensitive enough to detect a genuine OOT. It should be chosen based on how the approach would impact the parameter being evaluated. This article outlines several tactics, such as how to recognise an unexpected single result or unusual variance. When numerous tests and time points call for OOT constraints, OOT detection can be a difficult problem. Additionally, it includes components and software that help manage OOT discoveries.
In this paper we study how population aging impacts the age distribution of the voting electorate and voters' choices over childcare subsidies. We build a computable general equilibrium framework populated by heterogeneous agents who, over the course of their life-cycle, make endogenous and age-dependent fertility choices. The model is calibrated to match economic and population outcomes of the Italian economy. Child support favors young and fertile cohorts but can also impact all population subgroups through changes in prices, income taxation and population growth. A probabilistic voting model is used to measure voting outcomes over a range of childcare subsidy levels and tax policies. Our findings show that childcare subsidies have a positive impact on the total fertility rate and are welfare improving when financed with both capital and labor income taxation and in combination with lower pension contribution rates. A 10 percent increase in the level of subsidies can increase the population growth rate by an average of 0.47-0.70 percentage points. We find that voting choices of different population subgroups, while depending on the tax used to finance new expenditure, lead to lower levels of childcare subsidies, lower fertility rates and to a demographic 'trap'.
Multiplicative interaction models are common in the quantitative political science literature. This is so for good reason.
Institutional arguments frequently imply that the relationship between political inputs and outcomes varies depending on the
institutional context. Models of strategic interaction typically produce conditional hypotheses as well. Although conditional
hypotheses are ubiquitous in political science and multiplicative interaction models have been found to capture their intuition
quite well, a survey of the top three political science journals from 1998 to 2002 suggests that the execution of these models
is often flawed and inferential errors are common. We believe that considerable progress in our understanding of the political
world can occur if scholars follow the simple checklist of dos and don'ts for using multiplicative interaction models presented
in this article. Only 10% of the articles in our survey followed the checklist.
We examine how far fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy settings on fertility, using data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982 to 2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence, suggesting that the addition of these supports for working parents in a continuum during the early childhood is likely to facilitate parents' choice to have children. Policy levers do not have similar weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the coverage of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Our findings are robust once controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time lagged fertility reactions and for different national contexts, such as economic development, female employment rates, labour market insecurity and childbearing norms.
Cross-country differences in both the age at first birth and fertility are substantial in Europe. This paper uses distinct fluctuations in unemployment rates across European countries during the 1980s and the 1990s combined with broad differences in their labor market arrangements to analyze the associations between fertility timing and the changing economic environment with close to 50,000 women from thirteen European countries. First, it employs time varying measures of aggregate market conditions in each woman s country as covariates and second, it adds micro-measures of each woman s labor market history to the models. High and persistent unemployment in a country is associated with delays in childbearing (and second births). The association is robust to diverse measures of unemployment and to controls for family-friendly policies. Besides moderate unemployment, a large public employment sector (which provides security and benefits) is coupled with faster transitions to all births. Women with temporary contracts, mostly in Southern Europe, are the least likely to give birth to a second child.
This paper describes recent fertility trends in European and/or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD] countries and surveys the effects of family-friendly policies on fertility. Although these policies do seem to have an impact on fertility, their magnitude is limited. Financial benefits, whether conditional on employment status or not, have an undeniable impact on the timing of births, but their impact on the cohort overall fertility is less certain. Conversely, policies that facilitate the work-family balance seem to have a strong influence on the decision to have children or not. However, they do not always help reduce differences in behaviour between social classes. The impact of familyfriendly policies is probably underestimated because of the difficulty of assessing their coherence and long-term effects. Moreover, policies do not always have proven effect because their impact is often temporary in the absence of a complete set of support that accompany families all along the childhood. The effectiveness of policies also depends on their permanency and the stability of economic environment. Stable policies can mitigate the impact of economic recession on fertility as well.
Multiplicative interaction models are common in the quantitative political science literature. This is so for good reason. Institutional arguments frequently imply that the relationship between political inputs and outcomes varies depending on the institutional context. Models of strategic interaction typically produce conditional hypotheses as well. Although con-ditional hypotheses are ubiquitous in political science and multiplicative interaction models have been found to capture their intuition quite well, a survey of the top three political science journals from 1998 to 2002 suggests that the execution of these models is often flawed and inferential errors are common. We believe that considerable progress in our understanding of the political world can occur if scholars follow the simple checklist of dos and don'ts for using multiplicative interaction models presented in this article. Only 10% of the articles in our survey followed the checklist., and two anonymous reviewers for their extremely useful comments on this paper. We also thank the research assistants at Political Analysis—Jeronimo Cortina, Tse-hsin Chen, and Seung Jin Jang—for kindly double-checking the results from our literature survey. Finally, we are grateful to those authors who have provided us with their data. To accompany this paper, we have constructed a Web page at http:// homepages.nyu.edu/;mrg217/interaction.html that is devoted to multiplicative interaction models. On this page, you will find (i) the data and computer code necessary to replicate the analyses conducted here, (ii) information relating to marginal effects and standard errors in interaction models, (iii) STATA code for producing figures illustrating marginal effects and confidence intervals for a variety of continuous and limited dependent variable models, and (iv) detailed results from our literature survey. STATA 8 was the statistical package used in this study.
This chapter describes the intellectual development and the empirical implications of the literature on the economics of fertility as it applies to fertility behavior in developed economies. The chapter reviews the literature on dynamic models of fertility behavior over the parents' life cycle, and outlines the ways in which these models extend the static models and the implications that they provide for dimensions of fertility behavior. The chapter also discusses various solutions to the fundamental identification problems that arise in assessing the impact of prices and income on both lifetime and lifecycle fertility behavior. The theory and econometric methods are better developed than the empirical literature. The challenge is to find plausibly exogenous variation in proxies for the price and income concepts appearing in the theories. The chapter provides a taxonomy of possible identifying information and gives hope that additional progress can be made in advancing the empirical understanding of fertility behavior.
quality of life of families, either financially or by allowing parents to combine more easily employment and family responsibilities. But while such policies have been welcomed by the electorate, we know very little about their actual effect. Few studies have evaluated the impact of these policies on the quality of life of families, and even fewer have evaluated their impact on the demographic
During the last two decades fertility rates have decreased and have become positively correlated with female participation rates across OECD countries. I use a panel of 23 OECD nations to study how different labor market arrangements shaped these trends. High unemployment and unstable contracts, common in Southern Europe, depress fertility, particularly of younger women. To increase lifetime income though early skill-acquisition and minimize unemployment risk, young women postpone (or abandon) childbearing. Further, both a large share of public employment, by providing employment stability, and generous maternity benefits linked to previous employment, such as those in Scandinavia, boost fertility of the 25–29 and 30–34 year old women.