The Meat of the Global Food Crisis

Abstract

The global food crisis has been widely described in terms of the volatility of grain and oilseed markets and the associated worsening conditions of food security facing many poor people. Various explanations have been given for this volatility, including increasingly meat-centered diets and rising demand for animal feed, especially in China. This is a very partial reading, as the food crisis runs much deeper than recent market turbulence; when it is understood in terms of the biophysical contradictions of the industrial grainoilseedlivestock complex and how they are now accelerating, meat moves to the center of the story. Industrial livestock production is the driving force behind rising meat consumption on a world scale, and the process of cycling great volumes of industrial grains and oilseeds through soaring populations of concentrated animals serves to magnify the land and resource budgets, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with agriculture. These dynamics not only reflect disparities but are exacerbating them, foremost through climate change. Thus, this paper suggests that rising meat consumption and industrial livestock production should be understood together to comprise a powerful long-term vector of global inequality.

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The meat of the global food crisis
Tony Weis
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The meat of the global food crisis
Tony Weis
The global food crisis has been widely described in terms of the volatility of grain
and oilseed markets and the associated worsening conditions of food security
facing many poor people. Various explanations have been given for this volatility,
including increasingly meat-centered diets and rising demand for animal feed,
especially in China. This is a very partial reading, as the food crisis runs much
deeper than recent market turbulence; when it is understood in terms of the
biophysical contradictions of the industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex and
how they are now accelerating, meat moves to the center of the story. Industrial
livestock production is the driving force behind rising meat consumption on a
world scale, and the process of cycling great volumes of industrial grains and
oilseeds through soaring populations of concentrated animals serves to magnify
the land and resource budgets, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions associated
with agriculture. These dynamics not only reflect disparities but are exacerbating
them, foremost through climate change. Thus, this paper suggests that rising meat
consumption and industrial livestock production should be understood together
to comprise a powerful long-term vector of global inequality.
Keywords: industrial livestock; food crisis; global inequality
Meat and dietary change in the ‘food crisis’
From 2006 to 2008, world market prices of grains, oilseeds, and cooking oils spiked
on a scale not seen since the early 1970s. This led to sharp increases in levels of food
insecurity, malnutrition, and poverty, particularly in South Asia and Africa, and to
food-centred riots in many countries. According to FAO (2009a) estimates, the
population of undernourished people jumped above one billion following decades-
long stability between 800 and 900 million people,
1
a further blow to the vanishing
Millennium Development Goal that this number would be cut to 400 million by
2015. As food prices stabilized in 2009, some commentators suggested that the crisis
had passed, before renewed volatility and even higher price spikes hit again, and
reached new highs in 2012. The combination of recurring food price volatility and its
uneven social fallout is widely marked by talk of a new ‘global food crisis’.
I would like to thank Philippe le Billon, Jamey Essex, and Melanie Sommerville for helpful
feedback following the special session on the food crisis they organized at the Annual Meeting
of the American Association of Geographers in Seattle in April 2011. I am also grateful for the
comments given by anonymous reviewers at the JPS.
1
Given the rising total population, this did represent a steady decline relative to the total
global population since the early 1970s, from 26 to 13 percent.
The Journal of Peasant Studies, 2013
Vol. 40, No. 1, 65–85, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2012.752357
Ó2013 Taylor & Francis
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Fast-rising meat consumption in industrializing countries, especially in China
and parts of Asia, has been regularly cited as a cause of world food price volatility,
sometimes coded simply as affluence-related ‘dietary change’, with industrial
livestock production pulling heavily on grain and oilseed supplies for feed (Jarosz
2009).
2
However, some assessments have downplayed the impact that this demand
has had on world food prices (UN 2009), and in general most attempts to place meat
in the food crisis have been very partial, while the surging usage of grains and
oilseeds in industrial agrofuel production has featured more prominently in
explanations of food price volatility and generated more moral outrage.
3
One stark
reflection of this can be seen in the recurrent criticism heaped upon the Renewable
Fuel Standard (RFS) in the US, which mandates that one-tenth of the gasoline pool
of fuel companies must come from ethanol, thereby directing roughly two-fifths of
US maize to agro-fuel production (with a spillover effect on the area planted in other
crops). This criticism reached a fever pitch in 2012 as prices of important
commodities shot up amidst the severe drought and crop damage across much of
the US, and led some House representatives, senators, and state governors to call for
a two-year moratorium on the RFS, alongside a coalition of leading organizations in
the industrial livestock sector (Blas and Meyer 2012).
4
On a wider scale, the director-
general of the FAO connected fears about US production shortfalls to risks of world
food and feed price volatility and made an appeal to either lower or suspend the
RFS, pointing to the role that agro-fuels had in the 2007–2008 price spikes
(Graziano da Silva 2012).
Although we must be concerned about the causes and impacts of short-term
market turbulence, it is important not to exaggerate the stability that preceded it.
World food security has increasingly come to pivot on the cheap surpluses of the
industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex, which rests upon a precarious biophy-
sical foundation and an illusion of efficiency (Friedmann 1993, 2005, Weis 2007).
This foundation, and the illusion that surrounds it, are becoming less stable with
converging problems of soil erosion, diminishing freshwater availability, the decline
of key non-renewable resources, and climate change, at the same time as this system
is an important factor causing climate change. As these biophysical contradictions
2
Other explanations include the fast-rising production of agrofuels from industrial grains and
oilseeds, and their role drawing down global reserves and influencing the area planted in
different grains; changing stock-to-use ratios and the lack of transparent management of grain
reserves; fluctuating oil and agro-input prices; the increasing presence of speculative capital in
agricultural futures and investment; drought-affected production shocks to some key surplus
exporters; export restraints levied by some countries; and renewed Malthusian fears (some
examples include Nellemann et al. 2008, Bello 2009, Brown 2009, 2011, FAO 2009a, Headey
and Fan 2010). Champions of corporate–industrial agriculture and neoliberalism have tended
to blame food price volatility on incomplete liberalization and state interference in markets,
with key objects of criticism being agrofuel subsidies, export restraints, and restrictive
intellectual property rights (Paarlberg 2010).
3
For instance, Bello (2009, 105) cites a number of different estimates of the degree to which
this demand was responsible for world food price spikes between 2006–2008, ranging from 20–
75 percent, as given by the IMF, World Bank, OECD, and Oxfam.
4
With this, the RFS can be seen to have become an increasingly significant lightning rod
amidst the competing factions (divided by region and segments of agricultural capital) which
ultimately give shape to US farm policy, as Winders (2009) has shown so well. In essence,
farmers in the US ‘Corn Belt’ want to maintain the higher prices that the RFS mandate helps
stoke, while major livestock producing regions worry about its impact on the rising cost of
feed (Blas and Meyer 2012).
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accelerate, once-cheap industrial foods are bound to become more expensive, with
human impacts poised to play out in highly unequal ways (Weis 2010a).
This paper argues that uneven and rising meat consumption on a world scale –
and its driving force, industrial livestock production – must be seen as a central,
inescapable part of this deeper food crisis, which extends far beyond rising demand
in Asia. Industrial livestock production exerts a large and growing ‘ecological
hoofprint’, a concept which calls attention to the multidimensional resource budget
and environmental burden associated with cycling massive volumes of industrial
grains and oilseeds through rising populations of concentrated animals (Weis
2010b). It also helps to show how the nature and trajectory of industrial livestock
production is a powerful vector of global inequality tied to both entrenched and
shifting disparities in resource consumption, pollution, and emissions which are
actively undermining long-term prospects for development, principally through
climate change. The impacts and inequalities associated with food import
dependence and price volatility in world markets are ever more accentuated as the
biophysical basis of world agriculture is destabilized.
Yet the race towards greater meat consumption continues to be widely taken for
granted, and uncritical projections that meat consumption will continue rising
significantly are embedded in claims that world food demand will double by 2050
and in claims that enhanced yield (especially in poor, ‘under-yielding’ countries) is
therefore needed to solve present and future food problems (Tilman et al. 2011).
Such depictions of an asymmetrically under-yielding planet with a ‘yield gap’
(Neumann et al. 2010) must be replaced, I argue, with the recognition that enormous
volumes of grains and oilseeds are being inefficiently cycled through concentrated
livestock to serve an asymmetrically ‘meaty’ planet, a process that both reflects and
exacerbates global inequality. From this perspective, the need to challenge and
reverse the race towards greater meat consumption emerges as an essential aspect of
struggles for a more equitable and sustainable world, starting with the prospect of
mitigating the magnitude of climate change impacts.
The uneven geography of meat: an overview
Rising meat production and consumption has long been one of the most powerful
trends in world agriculture. This is reflected in the ‘meatification’ of diets, a term
which encapsulates the dramatic shift of animal flesh and derivatives from the
periphery of human food consumption patterns, where it was for most of the history
of agriculture, to the centre (Weis 2007). The average person on earth consumed
42 kg of meat in 2009, almost double the per capita world average in 1961 (23 kg),
along with twice the eggs (from 5 to 10 kg). This transformation must also be set
against the fact that human population leapt from three to seven billion over this
time, which translates into a four-fold increase in world meat and egg production in
a mere half-century. Amidst rising volumes, the relative share of total meat
production that is internationally traded has also crept steadily upwards over the
past century, from 5 to 13 percent.
5
5
The production and trade statistics in this paper have been summarized from FAO Statistics
database (FAOSTAT 2012). National statistics for meat consumption were derived by adding
production and imports together and subtracting exports. At the time of writing, trade
statistics were available up to 2009, and production statistics up to 2010.
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Although rising meat consumption has been a broad global trend, it is marked by
extreme disparities. At the apex of the global animal ‘protein ladder’ are the
temperate heartlands of the industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex, led by the
US (120 kg per capita in 2009), Australia and New Zealand (118 kg), Argentina
(113 kg), Canada (102 kg), and Western Europe (85 kg).
6
Taken together, these
countries are home to only 12 percent of the world population and yet accounted for
34 percent of world meat production by volume in 2009, along with 30 percent of
total meat consumption and 68 percent of world exports. At the other end of the
meat consumption spectrum are Southeast Asia (27 kg per capita in 2009), Africa
(18 kg), and South Asia (7 kg), which are home to almost half of humanity but
under one-sixth of world meat consumption and production in 2009, keeping in
mind that low national per capita averages conceal class disparities in consumption.
In between these poles is where the greatest change has occurred over the past
half-century, especially in China and Brazil. From 1961 to 2009, per capita meat
consumption rose from 4 kg to 59 kg in China and from 28 to 73 kg in Brazil, with
total meat production increasing 31-fold in China and 11-fold in Brazil. In 1961,
China and Brazil represented 24 percent of humanity and accounted for less than
seven percent of world meat production by volume, but by 2009, with a similar share
of humanity, they produced 33 percent of all meat in the world. Brazil has recently
emerged as the second largest meat exporting country, and the largest exporter of
beef, with its meat exports quadrupling by volume from 2000 to 2009 alone (during
which time its share of the world meat exports rose from 6 to 16 percent). Figure 1
portrays per capita trends and Figure 2 highlights changes in total production over
the past 50 years.
This shifting geography of meat is entwined with rising flows of feed grains and
oilseeds. Whereas small livestock populations historically grazed on fallowed land
and small pastures, scavenged around farm households, and sometimes fed on
locally produced forage stored over winters, fast-rising populations of industrially-
reared livestock are being raised on feed that has frequently moved across large
distances, both within countries and even across borders. On a world scale, the large
majority of coarse grains, soybeans, and rapeseed/canola are fed to livestock. In
2009, almost 446 million ha of these crops were harvested, covering roughly one-
third of the world’s total harvested land area and representing a 30 percent increase
over the past half-century, in step with the growth in the world’s total harvested area.
This means that livestock effectively occupy a significant share of the 10 percent of
the earth’s land area that is in cultivation, in addition to the roughly 25 percent of the
earth’s land area that is in pasture, some of which would be suitable for permanent
crops and some of which can only bear very low stocking densities, as throughout
most of the tropics, and should never have been converted to pastures (Steinfeld
et al. 2006).
On a world scale, the areal expansion of feed crops has been primarily
concentrated on maize and soybeans. From 1961 to 2009, the area devoted to maize
increased by 50 percent and the area devoted to soybeans more than quadrupled,
while the area devoted to most other feed crops was relatively stagnant. This has
been augmented by large yield gains, which are in turn tied to tremendous input
6
This includes FAO groupings of North, South, and West Europe, but not Eastern Europe,
where the demise of the Soviet bloc led to a dramatic fall in consumption in the 1990s before
beginning to rise again after 2000.
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useage, with the net result being that world maize production more than quadrupled
and soybean production grew more than eight-fold in a half century. Maize and
soybeans are the two predominant feed crops that are traded internationally. Since
1961, the volume of maize exports grew seven-fold and world soybean exports grew
eight-fold; more than one-third of all soybean production is now exported. The US
was the dominant exporter of both maize and soybeans for many decades, with
soybeans principally flowing to Western Europe. However, this began changing in
the late 1990s as Brazil and Argentina rushed to expand soybean production and
exports, and China’s demand for imported feed began climbing with its fast-rising
meat production (see Figure 2). From 1990 to 2009, Brazil’s soybean exports leapt
from 4 to 29 million tonnes, while China’s soybean imports spiked from 2 to 45
million tonnes, comprising more than half the world total in 2009.
Another important dimension of the uneven geography of meat relates to animal
populations and living conditions. The meatification of diets – which reflects the
degree to which production has outpaced human population growth – has
overwhelmingly centered on pigs and poultry. In 1961, cattle accounted for almost
two-fifths of world meat production by volume, followed by pig (35 percent), poultry
(13 percent), and sheep and goats (8 percent). In the subsequent half century, the
human population grew by 120 percent while the annual volume of pig meat
produced more than quadrupled and the volume of poultry meat grew more than 10-
fold. The net result was a dramatic change in the relative volumes by 2010, with pig
Figure 1. Meat consumption per capita, selected examples, 1961–2009.
Source: FAOSTATS.
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(37 percent) and poultry (34 percent, predominantly chicken) now clearly at the
forefront of world meat production, followed by cattle (21 percent) and sheep and
goats (5 percent). Poultry is also the leading force behind rising world meat exports,
jumping from 20 percent to 38 percent of world meat exports between 1990 and 2009.
In Livestock’s long shadow, it was estimated that more than half of all pig meat
and 70 percent of all poultry meat in the world were produced in intensive
production systems, accompanied by growth in semi-intensive forms of production
at intermediate scales (Steinfeld et al. 2006). Broad global patterns of intensive
poultry and pig production evident in 2005 are seen in Figure 3. From 2005 to 2010
world pig meat production increased by a further 10 percent while world poultry
production shot up by 21 percent. Because birds are much smaller than other major
livestock, grow to slaughter-weight the quickest, and are the most intensively farmed
of any animal, it means that these volume increases translate into a staggering
number of animal lives, an increasingly large majority of which are spent in
conditions of extreme confinement and suffering. Chickens accounted for almost 53
billion of the more than 60 billion animals slaughtered in 2009, in comparison to 1.3
billion pigs and 300 million cattle. Continued growth in per capita meat
consumption is projected in the coming decades, with the fastest growth expected
in China and other rapidly industrializing countries, and the burgeoning upper and
middle classes within them. The FAO estimates that world meat production will rise
Figure 2. World meat production by volume, 1961–2009.
Source: FAOSTATS.
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to 52 kg per person by 2050, which in a world of 9.3 billion people would mean over
480 million tonnes – versus 293 million tonnes in 2010 (42.5 kg per capita). Industrial
livestock production is expected to account for virtually all of this future global
growth, and because poultry is projected to remain at the forefront, the annual
population of slaughtered animals could approach 120 billion (Nierenberg 2005,
Steinfield et al. 2006, D’Silva and Webster 2010, FAO 2011a, b, Robinson et al.
2011). Continuation on this trajectory is bound to intensify the demand for
industrial grains and oilseeds as feed.
Dependence on cheap food imports
As noted, the world’s poorest countries tend to have the lowest levels of per capita
meat consumption in the world. They also have by far the highest shares of their
Figure 3. Global distribution of intensive poultry (top) and pig (below) production systems,
2005.
Source: Robinson et al. (2011, 55–56).
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population engaged in farming. For instance, roughly half of the total population in
South Asia and Africa was agricultural in 2010, a share which rises to close to two-
thirds in the world’s Least Developed Countries. Africa, South Asia, and Southeast
Asia also dominate IFPRI’s ‘hot spots’ of world hunger, and the FAO’s
categorization of Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs). Over the course
of decades, food security in these regions has increasingly come to hinge on the
importation of cheap grains, principally wheat and secondarily maize and rice. For
the LIFDC’s as a whole, wheat has long comprised over two-thirds of total cereal
imports.
7
Although countries of the Global South imported very little food at the point of
independence, the subsequent rise in food import dependence must nevertheless be
seen partly in light of the landed inequalities and economic rut carved by colonialism
(Weis 2007). Central to this was the fact that a narrow range of tropical agro-exports
(e.g. sugar, cotton, coffee, tea, cocoa, palm oil) tended to dominate significant areas
of the best arable land, which became increasingly problematic in the face of
declining terms of trade that owed to both structural overproduction and increasing
substitution by temperate crops (Robbins 2003). The other major dimension of rising
food import dependence stemmed from the mounting surpluses of increasingly
industrialized, input-intensive agricultural production in temperate countries, most
significantly the US, where the need to find export outlets translated into extensive
programs of food aid and subsidized trade (Berlan 1991, Friedmann 1993, Winders
2009). This cheap food was celebrated by development planners and welcomed by
recipient governments as a means to help foster urbanization and industrialization (a
key part of a general development policy ‘bias’ to urban areas), and served to
commoditize food security, reconfigure diets, and place new pressures on small
farming livelihoods (Friedmann 1990).
As small farmers faced deflated prices in domestic markets, many were
themselves becoming tied to food imports to some degree. These competitive
pressures were rooted not only in industrialized economies of scale and extensive
state subsidy regimes, but in an assortment of externalized costs that might be
understood as implicit subsidies (Weis 2010a). This general path towards rising food
import dependence was further entrenched by the myriad debt crises that began
unfolding across the South in the 1980s. The burden of debt service together with
structural adjustment prescriptions significantly reduced the role of the state in
agriculture, forcing extensive cuts to government expenditures on research capacity,
extension services, small farm oriented credit, and rural and domestic marketing
infrastructure, while diffusing energy for state-led redistributive land reforms,
promoting agro-export expansion, and liberalizing domestic markets, with liberal-
ization further entrenched after 1995 by the multilateral disciplines of the WTO
(Rosset 2006, Weis 2007, Bello 2009). Part of the ideological justification for this set
of policies was known as the ‘free market approach to food security’, essentially an
assurance that increased exports and liberalization together enhance foreign
7
In 2012, the FAO listed 66 countries as LIFDCs, 39 of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. This
listing is based on a low Gross National Income and an assessment of the average net food
trade, considering trade volumes and an estimation of their caloric content over the preceding
three years. Countries can choose to exclude themselves from this listing. This focus should
not imply that vulnerability to world market price shocks is only present in the world’s
LIFDC’s, only that it is generally greatest there.
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exchange earnings and the ability to access the bounty of global food markets,
bringing lower prices and more stable supplies.
Underlying these assurances was the false assumption that world markets will
perpetually abound with cheap food surpluses, which has continuously ignored the
biophysical contradictions of the industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex and the
long-term resource constraints and climatic burden associated with tying food
security strategies to vast, permanent material flows over great distances. The
vulnerability laden in this for poor countries was partially masked as long as cheap
industrial surpluses flowed, but is becoming more and more evident amidst the
volatility in world food markets.
The instabilities and illusory efficiency of the industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex
The industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex involves a profound reconfiguration
of agriculture’s historic organizing imperatives. Through most of agrarian history,
agroecosystems had to be organized in highly localized ways, based upon functional
diversity, complementarity, and relatively closed-loop material cycles, in order to
manage short-term risks and maintain future soil health. This tended to include
small and varied livestock populations grazing, scavenging and cycling wastes, and
put to work as traction on farms. Mechanization and the pursuit of economies of
scale demolished agriculture’s historic organizing imperatives, and substituted an
entirely different organizational logic: biological simplification and standardization.
In order to enable mechanization, large volumes of the same thing must be planted
and harvested together. As a result, small and varied livestock populations became
not merely a nuisance but a barrier to scale, and the need to push animals off
farmland has gone hand-in-hand with the revolutionary intensification of livestock
production.
The expansion and industrialization of grain and oilseed production and the
expansion and industrialization of livestock production have been mutually
reinforcing: rising crop productivity enabled livestock populations to grow far
beyond former densities on smaller, more biodiverse farms, while rising livestock
populations enabled crop production to grow to an extent that would otherwise have
deflated prices and undercut incentives. In other words, increasing livestock
populations were not only about increasing value-added opportunities in animal
flesh, milk, and eggs, but were also about transforming structural grain and oilseed
surpluses from a deflationary millstone into a steadily growing source of low margin
earnings for large-scale farmers, processors, and traders (Berlan 1991, Winders and
Nibert 2004).
8
The productive environments of the industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex
are characterized by a structural dualism – expansive monoculture fields dotted by
spaces of concentrated livestock – that is shaped by a unitary logic. Throughout the
8
Although the explosive growth of industrial livestock has helped to lessen the problem of
surplus grain absorption for large-scale producers, it has never fully resolved it, and surplus
management has been a major factor in enduring subsidy regimes in the US and EU.
Industrial agrofuels conceivably have an almost limitless absorption capacity, given the
enormity of grains and oilseeds that are needed to produce a volume of ethanol or biodiesel
that could substitute for oil on any significant scale. However, given the low energy return on
energy investment (EROI), any large-scale substitution is filled with momentous
contradictions (Giampietro and Mayumi 2009, Houtart 2010).
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temperate heartlands of this system, production is focused on a small number of
grains (mainly maize, wheat, and a few secondary coarse grains), oilseeds (mainly
soybeans and rapeseed/canola), and animals (pigs, poultry, and cattle). Crops and
animals are disarticulated between fields, factory farms, and feedlots, with
complementarity and biological cycles broken, and then re-articulated through
continuous flows of feed and, as emphasized below, many other resources. These
dynamics of scale, simplification, and standardization have long been assumed to
promote efficiency, with the decisive evidence being the cheapness of industrial
foods. But this cheapness has been a great illusion, which is now beginning to crack.
Part of the illusion of cheap industrial food stems from the impact of agricultural
subsidy regimes in industrialized countries (Rosset 2006, Weis 2007). However, an
even more fundamental illusion stems from how the pursuit of economies of scale
and the need for simplified and standardized environments systematically undermine
the biological and physical foundations of agriculture, depend on the unsustainable
use of non-renewable resources, particularly fossil energy, and generate large
pollution loads and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Weis 2010a).
The organizational imperatives of industrial agriculture create or exacerbate
many biophysical problems. Soil degradation is an age-old challenge, but it is greatly
accelerated by industrialization and the disarticulation of animals from land,
compaction by large machinery, diminished soil organisms, and reduced vegetative
ground-cover in monocultures. Monocultures simultaneously widen the classifica-
tion of undesirable species as pests while increasing the conditions for them to spread
in large homogenous fields with impoverished soils and decimated predator
populations. The replacement of labour and animal traction with machines and
the movement of inputs and outputs over greater distances drastically increases the
energy needed for agriculture. Enhanced seeds and soils with less biota, ground-
cover, and moisture retention also heighten irrigation demands, and are thus
implicated in great freshwater diversions and the pumping of underground supplies.
The general systemic response to the range of biological and physical problems has
been to overpower them with a series of external inputs, or what might be seen as
biophysical overrides, which are indispensable to economies of scale in agriculture.
The problem of soil degradation is primarily overridden with inorganic fertilizers,
mainly to replace depleted nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium. The problems
posed by weeds, insects, fungi, and plant disease are overridden by a treadmill of
chemical pesticides, which engenders and must adjust to new threats over time as
natural controls are eliminated, soil health declines, and resistance develops.
Increased water demands have been met by engineering projects on a range of scales
and the pumping of underground aquifers, frequently above rates of recharge. This
array of biophysical overrides must then be understood in the context of their
resource budgets, pollution burdens, and intractable dependence upon fossil energy
(McIntyre et al. 2009, Weis 2010a).
Fossil energy is the lifeblood of large machinery, the long-distance movement of
inputs to farms and outputs from them, and, less visibly, the production of essential
overrides, including fertilizers and pesticides. In powering mechanization, fertilizer
production, and long-distance material flows, fossil energy is systematically linked to
both the degradation of soils and the manufacture of a few key nutrients which are
injected back into agricultural production. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are pre-
dominantly manufactured through the Haber–Bosch process for combining atmo-
spheric nitrogen and hydrogen, with natural gas the main feedstocks. The energy
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budget of phosphorous and potassium fertilizer production extends from fossil fuel-
powered mining machinery to the electricity in large processing plants. The bulkiness
of fertilizers also means that a great amount of energy is needed to move them from
factories and mines to farms. Pesticides are commonly derived from petrochemicals,
and like fertilizers contain an under-accounted energy budget from manufacturing to
transport to application. Moving water against gravity is another commonly
discounted energy demand, from the macro-scale mining of underground aquifers to
generators pumping micro-scale systems. This wide-ranging fossil energy budget
generates a large volume of carbon dioxide emissions, and synthetic nitrogen
fertilizer is an important source of another GHG, nitrous oxide. Further, the
atmospheric impact of industrial monocultures also relates to how the reduced
biomass in plants and in soils (relative to both natural ecosystems and more
biodiverse farms) diminishes the capacity for carbon sequestration over a given area
of land. In addition to climate change, this system is implicated in a range of other
environmental problems, with some of the most damaging being: the runoff of excess
nutrients from industrial fertilizers, which causes widespread eutrophication and
damage to freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the persistent toxins that stem from
the pesticide treadmill, which pose complex and diffuse risks for ecosystems, animal
life, and human health; and the land degradation caused by prolonged irrigation and
waterlogging, nutrient leaching, and salinization (Kimbrell 2002, Nellemann et al.
2008, Shiva 2008, Schindler and Vallentyne 2008, McIntyre et al. 2009).
In short, the cheapness of industrial grains and oilseeds has rested not on the
triumph of efficiency, but on a host of hidden and externalized costs, or implicit
subsidies, which should be added to the price-distorting effect of explicit government
subsidies (Weis 2010a).
The ecological hoofprint and the magnifying effect of industrial livestock
The ecological hoofprint is a framework for conceptualizing the resource budget and
multi-dimensional environmental burden of industrial livestock, in particular how its
growth is implicated in an expansion of the land area, input and energy
consumption, GHG emissions, and pollution load of industrial monocultures.
Through this, and in light of the scale, growth, and marked inequalities in meat
consumption examined earlier, the ecological hoofprint also draws attention to how
this trajectory constitutes a major vector of global inequality.
As a result of the nutrients burned in animal’s metabolic processes, the cycling of
grains and oilseeds through livestock to produce flesh, eggs, and milk is an inherently
inefficient way to produce food. In Diet for a small planet, Lappe
´(1991/1971) first
called attention to the essential regressivity and environmental implications of this
feed conversion inefficiency, describing grain-fed livestock as ‘reverse protein
factories’ due to the protein consumed and turned into various wastes, a point
which holds more generally for useable nutrition. Different animals have different
conversion ratios, contingent on breeds, feed regimes, conditions of confinement,
and antibiotic and hormonal cocktails, but in general poultry are the most efficient –
or, more accurately, least inefficient – followed by pigs, with cattle the worst.
As discussed, these metabolic losses have an economic logic, as the value-added
opportunities in livestock production greatly expand the size of the market for grain
and oilseed surpluses, though still at exceptionally small margins made viable largely
by farmers growing in scale and shrinking in numbers, alongside subsidy regimes
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skewed to large-scale producers. But while the destruction of large volumes of
useable nutrition in grains and oilseeds can be profitable, industrial livestock
production is similarly disciplined by intense competition and thin margins, which
has produced two basic pressures: to enhance conversion ratios and to increase the
scale of production, while feed-to-flesh conversion ratios are also reflected in the
major shift in global meat production towards pigs and especially poultry described
earlier. These pressures weave together in ever-larger sites of production and rising
animal densities and confinement, which at once reduces the feed ‘lost’ to metabolic
processes (as immobilized animals in controlled environments burn less energy) and
makes it easier for capital to replace labour. Rising livestock densities have gone
together with large increases in the yield and the ‘turnover time’ of individual
animals, radically shortening animal lifespans from those on traditional mixed farms
(Mason and Singer 1990, Boyd and Watts 1997, Boyd 2001, D’Silva and Webster
2010). As the leading site of industrial livestock production and home to many of the
key corporations leading its innovation, the US illustrates how fewer sites with larger
animal numbers have come to dominate overall production. In 2007, 89 percent of
all meat chicken sales in the US came from just over 11,300 farms that each sold an
average of almost 700,000 birds per year, and 87 percent of all pigs sold came from
less than 8000 farms that sold an average of over 22,600 animals per year, while the
total number of farmers raising pigs fell almost six-fold from 1978 to 2007 (USDA
NASS 2008).
However, as with industrial monocultures, economies of scale are extremely
problematic, as the industrialization of livestock involves another array of
biophysical instabilities and overrides. Animals do not easily accommodate the
process of mechanization and the attendant crowding, confinement, sensory
deprivation, stench, and constant noise, which heighten animal stress, behavioural
pathologies, and disease risks (e.g. swine and avian flu, listeriosis, and E. coli). Much
as with monocultures, the response to systemic problems has been to overpower
them. The health and stress problems arising from unnatural densities are mainly
overridden through a combination of proliferating pharmaceuticals, chemical
disinfectants, and routine physical mutilations. The development of these overrides
has been concurrent with constant capitalist innovation geared at pushing
biophysical boundaries and improving feed conversion ratios through genetic
‘enhancement’, engineered environments, sub-therapeutic levels of antibiotics, and in
some cases hormones – as well as through externalized environmental costs and
animal suffering. For instance, poultry bodies engineered to add flesh quickly
literally outgrow their skeletal development, leaving many birds in chronic pain and
unable to perform elemental acts, an extreme reflection of which is the fact that
industrial turkey breeds cannot physically reproduce. The suffering and violence
inflicted upon animals in systems of industrial production involves important
questions about humanity’s relationship and responsibilities to other species, and the
brutal treatment of animals translates into wretched work process (Mason and
Singer 1990, Boyd and Watts 1997, Boyd 2001).
Yet while innovations have enabled animal bodies to grow much faster, produce
more milk and eggs, and yield more with less feed than in the past, there are
inevitable biological limits to how far this can go. Four decades after it was first
published, Lappe
´’s (1991) essential point remains: a given volume of useable
nutrition can be produced on a much smaller land and resource budget when derived
directly from grains, oilseeds, or other plant-based sources than when crops are
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cycled through livestock, as large shares of edible nutrition are lost in animals’
metabolic process. These nutritional losses due to the inherent inefficiency of cycling
feed through animals to produce food are very well-established, as is the fact that
they serve to magnify the ecological footprint of industrial monocultures, forcing
more land area to be devoted to their production, and with it more fertilizers,
chemicals, freshwater consumption and diversions, and fuel, and in turn generate
more GHG emissions and pollution loads while diminishing carbon sequestration
capacity (Goodland 1997, White 2000, Gilland 2002, Leitzmann 2003, Pimentel and
Pimentel 2003, York and Gossard 2004).
Added to this are the resource budgets and pollution burdens associated with
industrial livestock operations and processing. The expansion of factory farms
increases the energy needed for temperature control, venting, lighting, and waste
management, while the growing scale and centralization of slaughter and packing
plants increases the energy needed for processing and transport, as many more
animals are moving across greater distances. This expands further if the energy
needed in post-production storage and preparation is considered, as flesh, eggs, and
milk tend to have much greater refrigeration and cooking demands than do most
other foodstuffs, particularly grains and oilseeds.
Factory farms, feedlots, and processing plants are also heavy consumers and
polluters of water. Whereas small livestock populations historically drew water on or
near farms and through plants, industrial livestock production expands the pull on
water for animal intake and for cleaning factory farms and slaughterhouses, as well
as through the ‘virtual water’ embedded in feed (i.e. used in the production of grains
and oilseeds) which is again magnified by conversion inefficiencies. In contrast to the
functional role of small livestock populations within integrated farming systems,
recycling nutrients on fallowed land and small pastures, massive concentrations of
animals generate faecal waste on a scale far greater than can be absorbed in nearby
landscapes, compounded by the fact that it is laden with residues from antibiotics,
hormones, and agro-chemicals from feed. Some of this faecal waste is turned into
fertilizer and some is contained in reeking lagoons, but inevitably some escapes into
the ground and into freshwater ecosystems, contributing to eutrophication problems
and downstream health problems (Steinfeld et al. 2006, Pew Commission 2008,
Schindler and Vallentyne 2008).
9
When the resource budgets from confinement to slaughter are added to the
resource budgets and conversion inefficiencies associated with cycling industrial
grains and oilseeds through animals, it is estimated that eight times more fossil
energy and 100 times more water goes into a unit of edible protein contained in
factory-farmed meat in the US than goes into a unit of edible protein in industrial
grain (WorldWatch 2004, Nierenberg 2005). The burden of this energy budget is
extended by the role of livestock in the continuing conversion of biodiverse
ecosystems for more pasture and feed crops, which releases carbon dioxide in the
short-term and reduces the capacity for carbon sequestration over the long-term.
This dynamic is most destructive across Amazonia, where cattle ranching remains a
major force in deforestation, and has recently been augmented by industrial soybean
9
The severe environmental, health, and aesthetic impacts, such as wreaking ‘smell-scapes’, has
led to community resistance to large industrial livestock operations in some instances. This is
widely recognized as one reason why some industrial livestock production in the US has
gravitated towards poorer regions in pockets of the South and Midwest.
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production that is mainly used for feed (Hecht 2005, Barreto et al. 2007). The world’s
ruminant population is also a large source of methane, another important GHG.
When these impacts are taken together, the global expansion of livestock production
is recognized as one of primary causes of climate change, responsible for almost one-
fifth of global anthropogenic emissions by the most commonly cited estimate
(Steinfield et al. 2006, IPCC 2007, McMichael et al. 2007, McIntyre et al. 2009).
Accelerating instabilities: risks and regressivity
The chronic biophysical contradictions described in the preceding sections are now
accelerating due to an array of factors including: soil erosion; pest resistance to
chemical treadmills; the over-pumping of underground aquifers; the approaching
limits to the world’s supply of easy oil (or peak oil) and other key resources; and
climate change (Pimentel 2006, IPCC 2007, Nellemann et al. 2008, Moore 2010, Weis
2010a, FAO 2011c). Peak oil and climate change are at the forefront of these
instabilities. The limits to conventional oil supplies and the increasing dependence
upon more expensive extraction sites mean that while oil prices might remain volatile
in the short-term, they are bound to increase in the longer term. This pressure is
pulling industrial grain and oilseed production in two basic and opposing ways.
First, rising oil prices inevitably translate into rising costs through the running of
machinery and factory farms, the production of key biophysical overrides which
underpin high-yielding crops and animals (further exacerbated by the declining
supply of the world’s phosphate rock reserves
10
), and the movements of inputs and
outputs across long distances, together breaking down some of the powerful, implicit
subsidies that have long underpinned cheap food. Yet even as biophysical
instabilities worsen, industrial grain and oilseed production are being emboldened
by the agrofuel boom, which is driven by the intense push for new sources of liquid
energy, powerful corporate interests, and state subsidies. Given the large surplus
absorption capacity of agrofuels (relating to the low EROI noted earlier), they are
bound to place pressure on world grain and oilseed markets, while the vast land area
demanded threatens to exacerbate climate change through emissions associated with
land clearance and through diminished sequestration capacity (Righelato and
Spracklen 2007, Giampietro and Mayumi 2009, Houtart 2010).
In addition to being a major factor in climate change, the industrial grain–
oilseed–livestock complex also faces considerable risks from it. Models of yield
responses to climate change are extremely complex, as they involve a host of
variables and interactions, and a scale of change beyond what has ever been
experienced during the 10,000 year history of agriculture. At lower levels of change,
below what is conventionally defined as the ‘safe’ target for global average
temperature increase (28C above pre-industrial levels), there is a possibility that
warmer temperatures might extend growing seasons in the world’s temperate
regions, especially on the cooler margins, and thereby enhance agricultural
10
Phosphate rock is the main source of phosphorous used in industrial fertilizers, and reserves
are declining and could be gone within the next 50 to 100 years. As high quality reserves
decline, extraction and processing becomes more expensive and shipping distances are
growing, increasing energy demands, costs, and environmental impacts. Although there are
considerable uncertainties about the absolute supply limits (and hence precise timelines),
concern has been sometimes dubbed ‘peak phosphorous’ (Cordell et al. 2009, Cordell and
White 2011).
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productivity and expand the arable land area. But there is also a possibility that such
potential gains could be cancelled out, or worse, by new dynamics, including
projections that climate change is likely to: enhance conditions for the movement
and reproduction of pests, pathogens, and invasive species; reduce freshwater
availability due to changing precipitation patterns reduced river runoff; increase
evaporation and reduce soil moisture; and heighten risks of heat waves and
droughts amidst declining water availability, especially in drier mid-latitude areas
(Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007, Nellemann et al. 2008, McIntyre et al. 2009, Hertel
et al. 2010, FAO 2011c).
11
There are growing fears that yields may be far more
sensitive to temperature increases than previous thought, and recent droughts in
some of the world’s grain and livestock heartlands (e.g. Australia, Argentina, the
Indian Punjab, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, and the US) give serious cause for concern
about the risks of elevated heat and aridity in the world’s great surplus-producing
regions.
However, many of the world’s poorest countries with the smallest atmospheric
footprints are projected to face the most adverse impacts even at at lower levels of
climate change, well within ostensibly ‘safe’ global targets. These threats stem from
the prospect of hotter average temperatures, more severe weather events (e.g. heat
waves, droughts, and tropical storms), more variable rains, long-term declines in the
annual discharge from shrinking mid-latitude glaciers, and coastal vulnerability to
rising sea-levels. In a submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, the FAO (2011d) warned that slow-onset climate changes threaten
to have ‘potentially catastrophic’ impacts on agriculture across the Global South,
especially from the middle of the twenty-first century onwards (FAO 2011d). The
danger to agriculture from elevated heat and aridity is especially worrisome in the
semi-arid tropics, which are home to more than one-fifth of humanity and already
possess very high levels of poverty, hunger, and malnourishment, as well as high
levels of agriculture-based livelihoods (see Cline 2007, Schmidhuber and Tubiello
2007, IPCC 2007, Nellemann et al. 2008, McIntyre et al. 2009, FAO 2011c).
The earth is already locked into a significant amount of warming, due to the
persistence of GHGs in the atmosphere, the thermal lag of the oceans, and various
positive feedbacks like declining ice and albedo already in train, and there are
growing fears that the 28C increase in average temperatures above pre-industrial
averages will be breached before 2050 in the absence of immediate, drastic GHG
emission reductions, as there is almost no hope that agriculture could widely prosper
if average temperatures move beyond this level. These fears are given strength by
mounting empirical evidence that many important changes (e.g. sharp declines in
Arctic Sea Ice, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, and mid-latitude
glaciers) are surpassing upper-end projections from recent climate models, which in
turn involve strong positive feedbacks and the danger that non-linear changes will be
initiated and the process of change could take on an irreversible momentum
(Flannery 2009, Rogelj et al. 2011, Joshi et al. 2011).
In light of the magnitude and scientific understanding of the risks associated with
continuing increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations, it is clear that the
precautionary principle should be motivating multilateral and national efforts to
11
This also says nothing of the disastrous climatic repercussions that would ensue from more
deforestation to expand the land area in cultivation or pasture, namely the huge carbon
emissions and lost sequestration capacity.
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mitigate the scale of change (Ackerman 2009). The mitigation imperative is marked
by grossly unequal per capita atmospheric footprints, as the world’s wealthiest
industrialized countries possess roughly 15 percent of the world’s population and
account for nearly half of the world’s CO
2
emissions, unevenness which grows
further when historic emissions are considered (UNDP 2007). The urgent mitigation
challenge is further complicated by surging GHG emissions of industrializing
countries like China (which recently overtook the US as the world’s largest total
emitter), Brazil, and India. Tensions between countries with high per capita
emissions and lower but growing per capita emissions have come to dominate
multilateral negotiations on climate change, culminating in feeble commitments to
GHG emission reduction targets (along with equivocal promises for adaptation
financing), a failure which amounts to a ‘prescription for a widening gap between the
world’s haves and have-nots’ (UNDP 2007, 167).
Conclusions
In 2007, amidst rising food prices, the former UN Special Rapporteur on the Right
to Food described the agrofuel boom as a ‘crime against humanity’. That year,
roughly 100 million tons of grain (mostly maize) were converted to ethanol, and
modest amounts of soybeans and rapeseed were converted to biodiesel (Foer 2009).
The same year, almost 10 times as much coarse grain, soy, and rapeseed were used as
feed, the products of which were consumed disproportionately in wealthy countries
and by wealthier people within industrializing countries. Although this disparity
between feed and fuel is closing fast, and it would be hard to overstate the economic,
social, and environmental implications of the agrofuel boom on a world scale, at
the same time it should not overshadow the need to also challenge the older,
similarly regressive, and still bigger flows of grains and oilseeds through industrial
livestock.
This is especially concerning since the meatification of diets is projected to
continue rising unevenly, and since uncritical assumptions about affluence-related
dietary aspirations underpin calls for the doubling of world food production.
Meatification is thus a key part of the serious misrepresentation that occurs when
champions of high-input agriculture portray hunger and future food security as
matters of enhanced yield, and by extension matters of more input-intensive
approaches and/or continuing genetic modification of seeds and animals. Rather
than ratcheting up insufficient yields and production, a much more compelling
priority is to urgently ratchet down meat consumption and confront the social and
ecological disaster that is industrial livestock production.
As has been emphasized, the great surpluses of cheap food from the industrial
grain–oilseed–livestock complex involve an illusion of efficiency, which is defined in
terms of high yields and high productivity per farmer. This system has contributed to
dramatic dietary changes around the world, generating the unequal meatification of
diets that is skewed heavily by affluence, the flipside of which is deep grain import
dependence in many poor countries. However, this cheap bounty is also highly
unstable, which becomes clear as we appreciate the biophysical problems posed by
mechanization and standardization, how these problems get overridden, and how
this involves tremendous amounts of land, water, fertilizer, chemicals, fossil energy,
toxic runoff, nutrient loading, and GHG emissions – all of which are greatly
magnified by the loss of useable nutrition in cycling ever more feed through
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concentrated livestock and, by the operations of the industrial sites themselves. As
the illusion of efficiency begins to crack, the long-term vulnerability associated with
tying food security to flows of cheap food over great distances is increasingly coming
into focus.
In the short- to medium-term, as the costs of production in the industrial grain–
oilseed–livestock complex rise and agrofuel demand grows, the pressure on food
prices in world markets could well serve to further empower surplus grain–oilseed–
livestock exporters, not only economically but geopolitically, given how import
dependence has been constructed over the past half-century. At the same time, the
prospect of rising food prices is most daunting for many of the world’s poorest
countries, especially the LIFDCs, where food (principally grain) imports are an
important part of both food security and balance of payment challenges, and which
must be faced alongside the great adaptation challenge posed by climate change. In
the longer-term, as a major factor contributing to climate change, the course of
industrial livestock production poses a threat to the very foundations of world
agriculture.
The sizable role of unequal meat consumption in per capita GHG emission
disparities ties it to the fraught geopolitics of climate change, in which the world’s
wealthiest countries and most powerful corporations have been unwilling to
confront historic and enduring consumption inequalities and fast-industrializing
countries largely refuse confront consumption trajectories, while the world’s poorest
people face the most immediate and acute threats. Given the repeated failures of
multilateral negotiations and most national governments to establish aggressive,
binding GHG emission reduction targets, much of the hope for mitigation now
resides in the prospect of the climate justice movement gaining enough strength to
push policy changes at multiple scales (Tokar 2010, Bond 2010). Reversing the
meatification of diets and challenging the industrial grain–oilseed–livestock complex
deserves a central place in this movement.
To approach climate change mitigation with the urgency it demands would shake
this system of agriculture to its core. The mitigation imperative demands a radical
reframing of how efficiency is understood, away from yield and output per worker
and towards a much more comprehensive conceptualization where efficiency
involves minimizing external inputs, fossil energy, toxic contaminants, and GHG
emissions, and enhancing species richness, nutrient cycles, soil formation, carbon
sequestration, and net productivity per land area – that is, as the aggregated output
of multiple crops, and not only that of a single high-yielding one. Accordingly, low-
input, biodiverse, and more labour intensive small farms nested within more
localized food economies would emerge as being far superior to industrial
monocultures tied to global flows of inputs and outputs. Indeed, there is is much
empirical evidence to support the contention that such farms can indeed ‘feed the
world’ while, in the terms of Vı
´a Campesina, helping ‘cool the planet’ by reducing
emissions and enhancing sequestration capacity (Badgely et al. 2007, Snapp et al.
2010, Altieri and Toledo 2011, Martinez-Alier 2011). From this perspective, the de-
industrialization of livestock production and the de-coupling of huge flows of grains
and oilseeds from livestock production can be seen as a fundamental basis for
rebuilding more equitable and sustainable agricultural systems, opening space on
high-quality arable land yet still shrinking the overall land given to agriculture.
Ultimately, this priority also means problematizing dietary aspirations. While the
meatification of diets has long been held as a goal and measure of development and a
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marker of class ascension, it should instead be understood as a vector of global
inequality, environmental degradation, and climate injustice.
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Tony Weis is an associate professor of geography at the University of Western Ontario, in
London, Canada, whose research on global agro-food systems is broadly located in the field of
political ecology. He is the author of The global food economy: The battle for the future of
farming (Zed, 2007), and is currently at work on The ecological hoofprint: The inequality,
burden, and violence of industrial livestock and (with Harriet Friedmann) A political ecology of
the global food system: Precipice and possibilities. He can be reached at: aweis@uwo.ca
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