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Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation: Current practices, barriers and options in Solomon Islands
Abstract
Adaptive strategies are important for reducing the vulnerability of atoll communities to climate change and sea level rise in both the short and long term. This paper seeks to contribute to the emerging discourse on migration as a form of adaptation to climate change based on empirical studies in the two atoll communities, Reef Islands and Ontong Java, which are located in the periphery of Solomon Islands. The paper will outline current migration patterns in the two island groups and discuss how some of this migration may contribute to adaptation to climate change and other stresses. It shows that migration currently improves access to financial and social capital, reduces pressure on natural resources and makes island communities less vulnerable to extreme weather events and other shocks — all factors that contribute positively to adaptive capacity. It also shows that there are major barriers to migration that reduce the efficacy of positive outcomes to both migrants and their home communities, including high transport costs and problems in gaining access to housing, employment and government services in urban destination areas. If it is accepted that voluntary migration may play a positive role in adaptation to climate change in exposed atoll communities, addressing some of the barriers to migration seems logical. This may be done by efforts to stimulate migrant income opportunities, by improving migrant living conditions and by improving the transport services to the islands.
... The Solomon Islands provide a unique environment to investigate the role of relational values in a context where climate change poses a threat to local livelihoods and atoll ecosystems (Storlazzi et al. 2018;Seneviratne et al. 2021). While the country consists of six major and over 900 smaller islands, the educational opportunities and economic activity in the capital Honiara attract people from the surrounding islands, including the two major atoll formations Ontong Java and Reef Islands (Birk and Rasmussen 2014). As of now, much of the migration to Honiara is induced by reasons other than immediate climate risk, however, smaller lowlying atolls are threatened to become uninhabitable in the future due to a rising sea level (Storlazzi et al. 2018), thereby steadily increasing the necessity of migration as an adaptive response (Black et al. 2011;Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Adger et al. 2020). ...
... While the country consists of six major and over 900 smaller islands, the educational opportunities and economic activity in the capital Honiara attract people from the surrounding islands, including the two major atoll formations Ontong Java and Reef Islands (Birk and Rasmussen 2014). As of now, much of the migration to Honiara is induced by reasons other than immediate climate risk, however, smaller lowlying atolls are threatened to become uninhabitable in the future due to a rising sea level (Storlazzi et al. 2018), thereby steadily increasing the necessity of migration as an adaptive response (Black et al. 2011;Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Adger et al. 2020). Sealevel rise hazards in combination with extended periods of drought have severe consequences on water availability and sanitation in the Solomon Islands (Seneviratne et al. 2021). ...
... This differentiation within our study sample brings about an additional interesting layer of heterogeneity with respect to the relational ties to atoll islands, which in turn affects the relational values associated with these places. In Honiara, people who have relocated from the two atoll formations tend to live together in informal settlements separated from other communities (Christensen and Gough 2012;Birk and Rasmussen 2014). People living in one of the atoll settlements -either being born and raised there or having moved there -still have strong emotional and relational ties to their atoll (Christensen and Gough 2012;McMichael et al. 2021). ...
Relational values emphasize the desirable characteristics of nature–society relationships. Unlike instrumental values, relational values have not yet been subjected to monetary quantification, although they may be relevant to environmental policymaking or climate change adaptation decisions which often rely on cost–benefit approximations. This paper explores the quantification of relational values within a contingent valuation scenario both in monetary (one-time donation) and non-monetary terms (Likert-scale, ranking) as well as using a measure that elicits the desired allocation of government budget for adaptation. We conduct two surveys within the context of adaptation projects, aiming to protect the traditional lifestyles of atoll islanders on the Solomon Islands and coastal communities in Bangladesh. In these surveys, we employ two valuation scenarios – one with explicit mention of relational value losses, and one without. Information on relational losses led to no increases in monetary or non-monetary valuation but to a slightly higher allocation of government budget in Bangladesh. We further assess and discuss the validity of our measures, also accounting for respondents’ financial situation. Our findings suggest that emphasizing relational losses could significantly increase disaster management funding in Bangladesh, with a potential 55% budget increase based on our treatment effect. We further discuss the difficulties in quantifying relational values in a context with limited ability to pay and the importance of considering deliberative approaches for ensuring that all dimensions of human-nature relationships are adequately considered in adaptation policy decision-making.
... Host areas, for example, are the hardest hit by the impact of displaced persons. These communities bear the responsibility for providing adequate resources and services to the newcomers and often struggle with social, economic, and political tensions resulting from migration (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014). Therefore, rural communities must be equipped with the necessary tools and resources to effectively manage and adapt to these changes (Kothari, 2014;Islam, 2022). ...
... This knowledge, passed down through generations can provide critical insights and understanding of the changes occurring in the ecosystem (Allgood & McNamara, 2017). Recent studies have highlighted why integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific knowledge allows for a holistic and comprehensive understanding of the climate change challenges faced by communities (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014;Kothari, 2014). However, despite the significance of understanding and addressing the impacts of climate change on migration in local communities, there is a notable lack of literature and research in this area (Wilkinson et al., 2016;Baldwin & Fornalé, 2017). ...
... A review of the literature revealed that global solutions can be integrated with local solutions by considering the specific needs, contexts, and cultures of local communities (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014). Scholars of this view argue that a bottom-up approach engages local stakeholders and ensures their active participation in decision-making processes ( Ferris, 2020). ...
The Global Compact on Migration recognised climate change as a critical factor in migration and displacement and called on the global community to address the issue. However, recent reports suggest that global efforts to address the impacts of climate change on migration have not been able to address climate change-induced migration substantially. Global actions have often resulted in suboptimal outcomes. This study, therefore, sought to explore how local challenges can be leveraged in addressing global issues. A systematic literature review was conducted to analyse the potential of local solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change on migration. Information was obtained from full-text peer-reviewed journals published between 2010 to 2023 from the Scopus database. Atlas ti.23 was used to create codes and themes and then construct flowcharts that effectively demonstrate the importance of addressing issues at the local level when dealing with global challenges. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge on how local approaches can mitigate the impact of climate on migration.
... Despite this attention to agency in the broader migration literature, reviews of environmental migration research note limited scrutiny in environmental migrations (Obokata et al., 2014;Hunter et al., 2015). Environmental migration research considers agency in describing political and economic structures and inequalities that limit migration options and abilities (Alscher, 2011;Wrathall et al., 2014), including in the Pacific (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014), but agency is rarely a focus. However, growing attention in environmental migration research to the social, cultural, economic, and political factors that set contexts of environmental adaptation supports evaluation of migration agency related to these factors (Obokata et al., 2014;De Sherbinin et al., 2022). ...
... Concurrently, however, high transportation costs may block moves. Difficult and costly moves and long migration distances constrain migration capacities (Henry et al., 2003;Gray, 2010;Massey et al., 2010;Nawrotzki et al., 2013;Birk and Rasmussen, 2014), and worsening conditions that affect livelihoods necessary to support challenging moves may lead to less long-distance migration, particularly for older and lower-income residents (Findley, 1994;Warner and Laczko, 2008;Alscher, 2011;Findlay, 2011;Roland and Curtis, 2020). These circumstances reflect the environmental capital thesis, where declining environmental conditions block out-migration by limiting access to resources needed to support migration (Gray, 2009;van der Geest, 2011, p. 128-129;Hunter et al., 2015). ...
... Interviews with migrants living on Majuro and members of government and civil society reveal how social, economic, cultural, and environmental factors shape migration contexts and agency. Building on studies that consider effects of political and economic structures and inequalities on moving abilities (Alscher, 2011;Wrathall et al., 2014) and weigh the influence of geographic isolation-related factors on adaptive capacities (Kelman, 2007;Nawrotzki et al., 2013;Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Kim and Bui, 2019;Roland and Curtis, 2020), this study reports on participants' perceived barriers to migration agency. While findings are specific to the RMI, findings contribute to limited agency-focused environmental migration research and may have relevance for other geographically isolated contexts (Obokata et al., 2014;Hunter et al., 2015). ...
Migration as adaptation implies agency, yet environmental and non-environmental factors and their interactions may limit the availability of adaptation options, including migration. This study investigates migration agency in the Marshall Islands, particularly the role of geographic isolation and climate change. Interviews with internal migrants living in Majuro and members of government and civil society reveal how social, economic, cultural, and environmental factors shape migration contexts. Results suggest that geographic isolation-related factors may increase likelihoods of simultaneously more compelled and more constrained moves, particularly as climate change impacts increase. Climate change-related impacts on resource-dependent livelihoods may compel migration in search of new economic opportunities. However, worsening environmental conditions may also exacerbate cost-related migration constraints by reducing the resources available to support migration.
... A multitude of hydroclimatic impacts trigger migration. The papers in our meta-review show drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat, and general climate impacts of changes in the amount or timing of seasonal precipitation, along with increased warming to be the most prevalent drivers (Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Mashizha 2019;Rodriguez-Solorzano 2014;Yang et al. 2015). In the Central Dry Zone (CDZ) of Myanmar, for instance, climatic variability has been ongoing for several decades, leading to a trend in youth migration (Zin et al. 2019). ...
... The absolute majority of the case studies show that migration is autonomously initiated by households (59) or by households in conjunction with other actors (6). Of the households that initiated migration, the majority saw men leaving their hometown, given their primary role of decision-maker and provider (Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Gioli et al. 2014;Sapkota et al. 2016). In some instances, women were left behind to take care of agricultural work and the household (Gioli et al. 2014), while in others, women (and in some cases youth) were part of the labor migration either to cities (Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Su et al. 2017;Zin et al. 2019) or to agricultural fields close to home (Singh et al. 2019). ...
... Of the households that initiated migration, the majority saw men leaving their hometown, given their primary role of decision-maker and provider (Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Gioli et al. 2014;Sapkota et al. 2016). In some instances, women were left behind to take care of agricultural work and the household (Gioli et al. 2014), while in others, women (and in some cases youth) were part of the labor migration either to cities (Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Su et al. 2017;Zin et al. 2019) or to agricultural fields close to home (Singh et al. 2019). In terms of household asset sizes, smallholder farmers were more likely to pursue livelihood diversification strategies including off-farm labor and migration (Abass et al. 2018;Aniah et al. 2019;Radel et al. 2018;Waldman et al. 2019). ...
Due to its potential geo-political and environmental implications, climate migration is an increasing concern to the international community. However, while there is considerable attention devoted to migration in response to sea-level rise, there is a limited understanding of human mobility due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. Hence, the aim of this paper is to examine the existing evidence on migration as an adaptation strategy due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. A meta-review of papers published between 2014 and 2019 yielded 67 publications, the majority of which focus on a handful of countries in the Global South. Droughts, floods, extreme heat, and changes in seasonal precipitation patterns were singled out as the most common hazards triggering migration. Importantly, most of the papers discuss mobility as part of a portfolio of responses. Motivations to migrate at the household level range from survival to searching for better economic opportunities. The outcomes of migration are mixed — spanning from higher incomes to difficulties in finding employment after moving and struggles with a higher cost of living. While remittances can be beneficial, migration does not always have a positive outcome for those who are left behind. Furthermore, this meta-review shows that migration, even when desired, is not an option for some of the most vulnerable households. These multifaceted results suggest that, while climate mobility is certainly happening due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes, studies reviewing it are limited and substantial gaps remain in terms of geographical coverage, implementation assessments, and outcomes evaluation. We argue that these gaps need to be filled to inform climate and migration policies that increasingly need to be intertwined rather than shaped in isolation from each other.
... Most studies (28) focused on everyday forms of resistance: individuals did not comply with adaptation initiatives, but their resistance was subtle, lacked coordination, and avoided public attention (Fig. 4). Typical examples were not cooperating with adaptation projects (Buggy and McNamara, 2016), foot-dragging during community projects to deliver fewer results (Gebreyes, 2018), ridiculing those who engage in adaptation initiatives (Nielsen and Reenberg, 2010), and staying in areas declared as 'risk zones' (Arnall, 2019;Birk and Rasmussen, 2014). To everyday resistance, we count collective acts performed anonymously without central coordination, such as online activism. ...
... This happened for coastal residents in Sweden who successfully overturned a flood-inducing development plan (Brink and Wamsler, 2018). Without longitudinal studies, it is hard to assess how small resistance gains, for instance keeping a house in a high-risk area (Addo and Danso, 2017;Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Douglas, 2018;Henrique and Tschakert, 2019) or continuing with less 'climate-proof' farming practices (Nielsen and Reenberg, 2010;Phiri et al., 2019;Wernersson, 2018) shape future adaptation pathways. While such efforts can be seen as simply maladaptive and devoid of political implications (see e.g. ...
... While people who negotiate expropriation terms or wish to stay in risk zones are often portrayed as irrational and backward, these studies illustrate the negative effects of relocation on livelihoods and social safety netsand thus on vulnerability (Sou, 2017;Wamsler, 2014). Whether relocation is forced, manipulated, or a voluntary economic or adaptation strategy, relocatees often face new and unfamiliar climate hazards in the new place, such as the Mozambican farmers resettled from the floodplains to the drought-ridden mountains (Arnall, 2019), or the islanders who migrated from the Solomon Islands to sea-side urban squatter settlements with high unemployment and insecure tenure (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014). ...
Climate adaptation is not a neutral or apolitical process, but one that ignites social resistance. Government responses to risks of floods, droughts, or hurricanes-even those using a language of participation-might follow historical development pathways, strive to maintain the status quo, and directly or indirectly serve elite interests. Little attention has been paid to how people defy or resist top-down adaptation processes, overtly or covertly, in particular cultural, historical, and legal contexts. Drawing on sociological thought on popular resistance, this paper systematises research on people's resistance to climate adaptation by scrutinising the sites, repertoires, and consequences of such resistance. We identified overt and covert resistance in 56 scientific adaptation articles, which concentrated on 5 'sites' of resistance: Rural livelihoods, Urban informal settlements, Islands, First Nations , and Institutional landscapes. The findings imply that resistance to adaptation occurs globally, and not least in the context of relocation processes and participatory adaptation. We show how a resistance lens can help understand contemporary political behaviours, shed light on dynamic and compound vulnerability, and'unlock' more context-sensitive and even transformative adaptation. Meanwhile, resistance and popular movements are not only progressive, and there might be conceptual barriers to moving from resistance to transformation or reconciling resistance with actions by or with the state. The new frontier in research on the political economy of vulnerability is describing how these powerful institutions and interests adapt, showing the ways they are appropriating the cause of the vulnerable, depoliticising the adaptation agenda, and promoting innovations in finance and markets as solutions to climate risks. (Barnett, 2020, p. 1179).
... For example, livelihood impacts of climate-driven stressors (including shoreline/riverbank erosion, flooding and erratic rainfall) in three Mahishkhocha island chars (river-mouth sand islands of Bangladesh) have been amplified by inadequate/misguided policy (Saha, 2017).The subordination of IKLK in favour of external adaptation strategies has accelerated livelihood decline in many island contexts (Wilson and Forsyth, 2018). Although economic and financial development has the potential to reduce environmental (and livelihood) degradation in SIDS (Seetanah et al., 2019), it is also clear that uneven development can steepen core-periphery disparities, especially in archipelagic contexts, resulting in deteriorating rural/peripheral livelihoods at the expense of improving urban ones (Wilson, 2013;Sofer, 2015) and increased ruralurban migration (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Connell, 2015). ...
... Studies do not provide sufficiently robust evidence to attribute the various forms of migration to anthropogenic climate change directly on small islands or to accurately estimate the current number of climaterelated migrants (see Chapter 7). Climate events and conditions strongly interact with other environmental stressors and economic, social, political and cultural reasons for migrating (robust evidence, high agreement) (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Campbell and Warrick, 2014;Laczko and Piguet, 2014;Marino and Lazrus, 2015;Connell, 2016;Weber, 2016b;Stojanov et al., 2017;Cashman and Yawson, 2019). ...
... Despite difficulties with attribution, the literature establishes that climate variability and extreme events and broad environmental pressures have contributed to some degree to human mobility on small islands over time (medium evidence, high agreement) (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Campbell, 2014a;Campbell and Warrick, 2014;Donner, 2015;Kelman, 2015a;Connell, 2016;Stojanov et al., 2017;Barnett and McMichael, 2018;Martin et al., 2018) and these studies can provide analogues from which to inform climate-migration responses (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Kelman, 2015a;Connell, 2016). ...
... Autonomous and planned relocation in small island developing states and semi-arid regions Migration is improving access to financial and social capital and reducing risk exposure in some locations (e.g., in the Solomon Islands; Birk and Rasmussen, 2014). The ad hoc nature of migration and displacement can be overcome by integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into national sustainable development plans (Thomas and Benjamin, 2018). ...
... Microeconomic viability Rumore et al., 2016;Muttarak, 2017 Toloo et al., 2013;Burton et al., 2014;Hoy et al., 2014;Paterson et al., 2014;Confalonieri et al., 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Ebi and del Barrio, 2017;Paavola, 2017Shiferaw et al., 2014Devereux et al., 2015 Birk andRasmussen, 2014;Betzold, 2015;Ionesco et al., 2016;Musah-Surugu et al., 2018 Macroeconomic viability Hoffmann and Muttarak, 2017;Muttarak, 2017 Ebi et al., 2004;Hess et al., 2012;Hosking and Campbell-Lendrum, 2012;Toloo et al., 2013;Hoy et al., 2014;WHO, 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Nitschke et al., 2017;Paavola, 2017;Ebi and del Barrio, 2017;Gilfillan et al., 2017Grecequet et al., 2017Hino et al., 2017 Socio-economic vulnerability reduction potential Frankenberg et al., 2013;K.C., 2013;Striessnig et al., 2013;van der Land and Hummel, 2013;Muttarak and Lutz, 2014;Rumore et al., 2016;Hoffmann and Muttarak, 2017;Lutz and Muttarak, 2017Ebi et al., 2004Hess et al., 2012;Hosking and Campbell-Lendrum, 2012;Panic and Ford, 2013;Toloo et al., 2013;Boeckmann and Rohn, 2014;WHO, 2015;Confalonieri et al., 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Gilfillan et al., 2017;Nitschke et al., 2017;Paavola, 2017;Sen et al., 2017;Ebi and del Barrio, 2017;Hess, 2017 Davies et al., 2013;Weldegebriel and Prowse, 2013;Berhane et al., 2014;Eakin et al., 2014;Leichenko and Silva, 2014;Devereux, 2016;Lemos et al., 2016;Godfrey-Wood and Flower, 2017;Schwan andYu, 2017 Birk andRasmussen, 2014;Adger et al., 2015;Betzold, 2015;Grecequet et al., 2017;Melde et al., 2017;World Bank, 2017 Employment and productivity enhancement potencial van der Land and Hummel, 2013; Muttarak and Lutz, 2014;Muttarak, 2017 Bowen et al., 2013;Toloo et al., 2013;Burton et al., 2014;Hoy et al., 2014;Gilfillan et al., 2017;Nitschke et al., 2017Davies et al., 2013Berhane et al., 2014;Shiferaw et al., 2014 NA Technological Technical resource availability Chaudhury et al., 2013;Baird et al., 2014;Rumore et al., 2016Hess et al., 2012Panic and Ford, 2013;Toloo et al., 2013;Hoy et al., 2014;Paterson et al., 2014;WHO, 2015;Confalonieri et al., 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Ebi et al., 2016;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Nitschke et al., 2017;Paavola, 2017;Sheehan et al., 2017; ...
... Microeconomic viability Rumore et al., 2016;Muttarak, 2017 Toloo et al., 2013;Burton et al., 2014;Hoy et al., 2014;Paterson et al., 2014;Confalonieri et al., 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Ebi and del Barrio, 2017;Paavola, 2017Shiferaw et al., 2014Devereux et al., 2015 Birk andRasmussen, 2014;Betzold, 2015;Ionesco et al., 2016;Musah-Surugu et al., 2018 Macroeconomic viability Hoffmann and Muttarak, 2017;Muttarak, 2017 Ebi et al., 2004;Hess et al., 2012;Hosking and Campbell-Lendrum, 2012;Toloo et al., 2013;Hoy et al., 2014;WHO, 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Nitschke et al., 2017;Paavola, 2017;Ebi and del Barrio, 2017;Gilfillan et al., 2017Grecequet et al., 2017Hino et al., 2017 Socio-economic vulnerability reduction potential Frankenberg et al., 2013;K.C., 2013;Striessnig et al., 2013;van der Land and Hummel, 2013;Muttarak and Lutz, 2014;Rumore et al., 2016;Hoffmann and Muttarak, 2017;Lutz and Muttarak, 2017Ebi et al., 2004Hess et al., 2012;Hosking and Campbell-Lendrum, 2012;Panic and Ford, 2013;Toloo et al., 2013;Boeckmann and Rohn, 2014;WHO, 2015;Confalonieri et al., 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Gilfillan et al., 2017;Nitschke et al., 2017;Paavola, 2017;Sen et al., 2017;Ebi and del Barrio, 2017;Hess, 2017 Davies et al., 2013;Weldegebriel and Prowse, 2013;Berhane et al., 2014;Eakin et al., 2014;Leichenko and Silva, 2014;Devereux, 2016;Lemos et al., 2016;Godfrey-Wood and Flower, 2017;Schwan andYu, 2017 Birk andRasmussen, 2014;Adger et al., 2015;Betzold, 2015;Grecequet et al., 2017;Melde et al., 2017;World Bank, 2017 Employment and productivity enhancement potencial van der Land and Hummel, 2013; Muttarak and Lutz, 2014;Muttarak, 2017 Bowen et al., 2013;Toloo et al., 2013;Burton et al., 2014;Hoy et al., 2014;Gilfillan et al., 2017;Nitschke et al., 2017Davies et al., 2013Berhane et al., 2014;Shiferaw et al., 2014 NA Technological Technical resource availability Chaudhury et al., 2013;Baird et al., 2014;Rumore et al., 2016Hess et al., 2012Panic and Ford, 2013;Toloo et al., 2013;Hoy et al., 2014;Paterson et al., 2014;WHO, 2015;Confalonieri et al., 2015;Araos et al., 2016a;Ebi et al., 2016;Hess and Ebi, 2016;Nitschke et al., 2017;Paavola, 2017;Sheehan et al., 2017; ...
... Resistance is not a concept used in most of the academic literature on climate adaptation. Rather, as outlined in the rest of this Introduction, the field has been overwhelmingly concerned with overcoming barriers to implementation, without recognising thator exploring whypeople oppose or refuse adaptation initiatives (Armah, Ung, Boamah, Luginaah, & Campbell, 2017;Barnett et al., 2015;Berrang-Ford et al., 2021;Birk & Rasmussen, 2014;Eisenack et al., 2014). ...
... While some see informal settlements as encroachments that are permanently vulnerable to state eviction and climate change, in many cases, residents have been able to effectively secure their land in the long term, and gain rights such as compensation (upon eviction or disaster impacts) or even formal tenure (Tassadiq, 2018). Thus, for vulnerable groups, resistance is an alternative form of action that can influence the (Addo & Danso, 2017;Birk & Rasmussen, 2014). -Attachment to practices that are seen as an important part of their identity beyond rational cost-benefit analyses (Laborde et al., 2016). ...
Despite that climate hazards are increasingly felt across the globe, there is widespread and often subtle resistance to climate adaptation interventions. However, adaptation research and practice have largely focused on overcoming barriers to implementation. By presuming adaptation programs are welcome, they miss that many people oppose or refuse to participate in them, and the politics hidden behind such resistance. We review the emerging academic literature on resistance to climate adaptation and uncover how diverse forms of adaptation resistance generate deep insights into overlooked local needs and aspirations. While it could be expected that 'loud' forms of resistance, such as protests, prompted some adaptation initiatives to accommodate local needs, it was surprising to see the effects of 'quiet' resistance. Quiet adaptation resistance in the forms of false compliance, foot-dragging, and gossip helped affected communities to stay in their territories, maintain certain farming practices, contest exclusionary urban policies, or simply assert their agency and freedom. These results reflect that adaptation has adopted a narrow approach to development that omits the multiple and underlying causes of vulnerability-many of which are evident to those affected. We argue that even when such acts do not directly improve material conditions, they represent an alternative political engagement to reimagine adaptation considering the needs of marginalised groups beyond the participatory and community development approach. This article provides concrete examples of how quiet resistance to adaptation speaks that can help development practitioners and policy makers to better understand the limitations of adaptation initiatives and their implications for effective local security in the face of climate change. Political accountability to adaptation-targeted populations could improve adaptation investments, making them more relevant, socially sustainable, and responsive to local needs.
... These insights all point to the importance of involving the community and government as key equal stakeholders when designing climate adaptation actions. This article explores this topic in the context of SIDS, with a particular focus on atolls, which are at the frontier of climate change impacts (Amores et al. 2022;Cauchi et al. 2021;Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Islam et al. 2022;White et al. 2007). ...
... The focus is on atolls that are at the frontier of climate change impacts, especially in relation to sea level inundation which will lead to significant loss of land, and importantly, due to storm surges and shallow groundwater lenses, urgent threats to water supplies (Amores et al. 2022;Cauchi et al. 2021;Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Islam et al. 2022;White et al. 2007). ...
As the impacts of climate change increase, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in particular shall face increasingly significant adaptation challenges. Past climate adaptation efforts within SIDS have had limited success. As such, the purpose of this systematic literature review has been to identify areas of importance for facilitating climate adaptation, particularly within Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and more specifically, to assess the extent to which participatory justice within decision-making processes is recognised as an important component of climate adaptation through the lens of water management. This review process utilised the SPIDER tool to guide the literature search across SCOPUS, Web of Science and EBSCO host databases, generating 495 publications that were reduced to a total of 70 sources guided by PRISMA, informing the review's results and discussion. Thematic analysis of the selected studies was applied, utilising the Values-Rules-Knowledge framework. Through this analysis, five principles were created and comprise the major conclusions of this review: (1) ensuring community engagement, (2) expanding available options through local experimentation, (3) ensuring that monitoring and evaluation of adaptation initiatives are taken seriously, (4) adopting decision-making mechanisms that are systems-oriented and inclusive, and (5) investing only if there is a long-term commitment to protecting SIDS. It is hoped that these principles can serve as a comprehensive guide for funding agencies, applied projects and research aiding climate adaptation within SIDS.
... It has also been found that the effect of crop failure tends to reduce household mobility, and indirect exposure increases it in women. Birk and Rasmussen (2014) argue that women are more likely to use their family networks and other social capital coping strategies to mitigate their exit from poverty to reduce climate vulnerability. The main differences in the decision to migrate between these groups are due to a lack of property rights and domestic and reproductive roles that impose time constraints on women's participation in non-agricultural employment. ...
... Our spatially explicit model reveals that high migration potential is consistent with areas with a more significant presence of crop and fish farming activities and where agricultural activity is a critical economic activity for household sustenance in the municipality (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014;Black et al., 2011). The use of multi-criteria analysis in assessing climate change mitigation policies has shown that it is a tool that can potentially support community participation and transparency in climate change adaptation policy (Konidari & Mavrakis, 2007;Malczewski & Rinner, 2015). ...
Climate change impacts on populations have increased the number of affected people and climate migrants worldwide. Although the nexus between climate change and migration is not monolithic, analyses of individual-level factors at the local scale that reveal the specific drivers of migration are lacking. Here, we show that people are motivated by individual calculations, prioritizing economic and social factors when deciding to migrate. We use data from 53 structured interviews to decompose the assessment of the decision-making process of people deciding to migrate from a region highly vulnerable to climate change, assessing the internal and external migratory potential. The assessment of migration potential evidenced that potential migrants react and make decisions based on perceptions and preferences among economic, social, environmental, and cultural factors when migrating and value these factors differently. Our spatial multi-criteria model reports disaggregation in that people prioritize economic factors, such as unemployment, job opportunities, and lack of income, over other migration-related factors, while environmental factors are generally considered underlying. Our results demonstrate that migration is not monolithic but a mixture and amalgam of multiple interacting factors, which causes people to migrate or stay in one place despite vulnerability and climate change impacts.
... While human migration and relocation are expected to be a growing challenge for LLIC (medium evidence, high agreement) (Adger et al., 2014;Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Milan and Ruano, 2014;Thomas, 2015;Sections 3.5.3.5, 4.4.2.4, 6.3.4, ...
... Noteworthy, environmentally-induced relocation is not necessarily new, for example, in the Pacific (Nunn, 2014;Boege, 2016). The Gilbertese people from Kiribati moved to the Solomon Islands during the 1950s-1960s, as a result of long periodic droughts and subsequent environmental degradation (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Albert et al., 2016;Tabe, 2016;Weber, 2016). In the Solomon Islands, the relocation of the Taro Township (Choiseul Province) as a result of rising sea level and coastal erosion is already underway (Haines and McGuire, 2014;Haines, 2016). ...
... While human migration and relocation are expected to be a growing challenge for LLIC (medium evidence, high agreement) (Adger et al., 2014;Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Milan and Ruano, 2014;Thomas, 2015;Sections 3.5.3.5, 4.4.2.4, 6.3.4, ...
... Noteworthy, environmentally-induced relocation is not necessarily new, for example, in the Pacific (Nunn, 2014;Boege, 2016). The Gilbertese people from Kiribati moved to the Solomon Islands during the 1950s-1960s, as a result of long periodic droughts and subsequent environmental degradation (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014;Albert et al., 2016;Tabe, 2016;Weber, 2016). In the Solomon Islands, the relocation of the Taro Township (Choiseul Province) as a result of rising sea level and coastal erosion is already underway (Haines and McGuire, 2014;Haines, 2016). ...
Ocean and cryosphere changes already impact Low-Lying Islands and Coasts (LLIC), including Small Island Developing States, with cascading and compounding risks. Disproportionately higher risks are expected in the course of the 21st century. Reinforcing the
findings of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, vulnerable human communities, especially those in coral reef environments and polar regions, may exceed adaptation limits well before the end of this century and even in a low greenhouse gas
emission pathway (high confidence1). Depending on the effectiveness of 21st century mitigation and adaptation pathways under all emission scenarios, most of the low-lying regions around the world may face adaptation limits beyond 2100, due to the long-term
commitment of sea level rise (medium confidence).
... This is linked to the term 'climate refugees', which, however, lacks legal recognition (Yamamoto and Esteban 2014). Islanders have always migrated, not only because of climate change but because of intrinsic island conditions (Birk and Rasmussen 2014). Migration of part of the population, in that case, is not a way of adaptation but part of island life. ...
... Similarly, there is a discrepancy between scientific assessments of climate change and local perceptions of risk that would encourage individual migration or relocation decisions (Lata and Nunn 2012). In fact, out-migration due to climate change is not necessarily the number one issue for people, in contrast to the general narrative of sinking islands (Mortreux and Barnett 2009;Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Stojanov et al. 2016). Emerging evidence suggests that people are reluctant to move from islands which sustain their material cultures, lifestyles and identities (Mortreux and Barnett 2009). ...
Small islands are considered especially vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic hazards. They are stylised flagships of climate change whose multifarious impacts are thought to show straight and immediate effects. This chapter examines the impacts of climate change and environmental pressures and the direct consequences that results for small island communities, including demographic and social change. Adaptation in this context is not merely a question of technological solutions but also a social challenge, as it is framed by various socio-political and economic settings, coping capacities and national-international relations. Resilience and the challenges of sustainable development are discussed and exemplary approaches presented for the sustainable management of future developments.
... However, local and traditional knowledge is often neglected in policy and research with policy makers often turning to science to answer questions of how communities should respond to environmental change and how relocation efforts should be undertaken. Moreover, government-mandated relocations have often eroded the efficacy of traditional practices, as they have shown to undermine traditional structures and community coherence and reduce the viability of some traditional livelihoods (McNeeley 2012;Edwards 2013;Maldonado et al. 2013;Birk and Rasmussen 2014). This is reportedly largely due to government-led initiatives removing options and reducing choices for local communities, thereby undermining their adaptive capacity at the local scale (Nakashima et al. 2012). ...
... Other communities in the Solomon Islands such as Sikiana, Ontong Java, Walande and Fanalei without access to highelevation land through hereditary rights have faced significant challenges with relocation despite government efforts to find suitable land (Rasmussen et al. 2009;Birk and Rasmussen 2014;Monson and Foukona 2014). Marriage has long been a powerful tool for Pacific Island societies to strengthen links to essential resources (Bennett 1987). ...
Whilst future air temperature thresholds have become the centrepiece of international climate negotiations, even the most ambitious target of 1.5 °C will result in significant sea-level rise and associated impacts on human populations globally. Of additional concern in Arctic regions is declining sea ice and warming permafrost which can increasingly expose coastal areas to erosion particularly through exposure to wave action due to storm activity. Regional variability over the past two decades provides insight into the coastal and human responses to anticipated future rates of sea-level rise under 1.5 °C scenarios. Exceeding 1.5 °C will generate sea-level rise scenarios beyond that currently experienced and substantially increase the proportion of the global population impacted. Despite these dire challenges, there has been limited analysis of how, where and why communities will relocate inland in response. Here, we present case studies of local responses to coastal erosion driven by sea-level rise and warming in remote indigenous communities of the Solomon Islands and Alaska, USA, respectively. In both the Solomon Islands and the USA, there is no national government agency that has the organisational and technical capacity and resources to facilitate a community-wide relocation. In the Solomon Islands, communities have been able to draw on flexible land tenure regimes to rapidly adapt to coastal erosion through relocations. These relocations have led to ad hoc fragmentation of communities into smaller hamlets. Government-supported relocation initiatives in both countries have been less successful in the short term due to limitations of land tenure, lacking relocation governance framework, financial support and complex planning processes. These experiences from the Solomon Islands and USA demonstrate the urgent need to create a relocation governance framework that protects people’s human rights.
... (de Sherbinin, 2020; Siegried, 2023). Others have likewise identified internal migration to urban 144 centres as an established adaptation practice for atoll nations to diversify income and reduce 145 resource pressures (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014;Farbotko & Campbell, 2022). 146 ...
Pacific islands and atolls face heightened climate risk due to low elevations and limited resources. The question of (unin)habitability in these locations is often simplified to characteristics of hazard exposure, reinforcing assumptions of inevitable mass migration. Here we use a multi-dimensional conceptualisation of habitability, built from local knowledge, to simulate habitability trends in the Pacific Island nation of Kiribati over the coming century. We find that water insecurity will be a driving factor in habitability loss, intensifying under extreme climate scenarios, while population pressures will further constrain resources. We show that regional disparities will lead to high internal migration rates, with movement to national urban centres preferred over movement abroad. Our work answers calls for a holistic and locally grounded understanding of habitability. By identifying how drivers of habitability change over time, we offer insights for targeted and timely climate adaptation.
... Migration-as-adaptation as a concept grew out of awareness that migration could be a choice, intentionally or unintentionally in reaction to environmental change, that could allow a household to diversify incomes, livelihoods, and locations (Black et al. 2011;McLeman and Hunter 2010). In turn, migration could potentially enhance adaptive capacity or resilience to climate change effects through financial or social remittances (Sakdapolrak et al. 2016;Porst and Sakdapolrak 2018;Birk and Rasmussen 2014). However, researchers also caution against misplacing a responsibility to adapt through migration only on the individuals affected by climate change (Bettini, Nash, and Gioli 2016), that migration-as-adaptation can have limits or even reduce adaptive capacities (Vinke et al. 2020;Sakdapolrak, Borderon, and Sterly 2023), and that local contexts and people's own perceptions should be considered when linking migration, environmental change, and adaptation (Van Praag et al. 2021). ...
... Behavioral changes: Communities often adapt by altering their daily practices in response to climate variability. This includes preparing for extreme weather events by preserving food, securing homes, and modifying agricultural practices (e.g., switching to different crops or fish species) to cope with changing environmental conditions [43,44]. ...
Climate change presents significant challenges for Cabo Verde, especially impacting its agriculture sector, which is vital for the country’s economy. With an arid climate and limited land, Cabo Verde faces issues, such as soil degradation, drought, and a heavy reliance on food imports. These challenges are compounded by socio-economic factors, including widespread poverty and inequality, which exacerbate vulnerability and limit effective disaster risk management. Efforts to adapt to climate change include implementing soil and water conservation measures, such as terraces and drip irrigation, and diversifying income sources through remittances. A critical aspect of building resilience is integrating climate considerations into all public policy agendas. This involves leveraging traditional knowledge, promoting climate-smart technologies, and emphasizing gender equality to ensure that women, who play a crucial role in agriculture, are recognized as agents of transformation rather than just victims of climate change. Strengthening internal capacities and fostering international cooperation are essential for Cabo Verde to effectively address climate challenges. By adopting an integrated approach that combines technological innovation, community engagement, and strategic policy development, the country can turn climate challenges into opportunities and prosperity for sustainable growth and development.
... Migration-as-adaptation as a concept grew out of awareness that migration could be a choice, intentionally or unintentionally in reaction to environmental change, that could allow a household to diversify incomes, livelihoods, and locations (Black et al. 2011;McLeman and Hunter 2010). In turn, migration could potentially enhance adaptive capacity or resilience to climate change effects through financial or social remittances (Sakdapolrak et al. 2016;Porst and Sakdapolrak 2018;Birk and Rasmussen 2014). However, researchers also caution against misplacing a responsibility to adapt through migration only on the individuals affected by climate change (Bettini, Nash, and Gioli 2016), that migration-as-adaptation can have limits or even reduce adaptive capacities (Vinke et al. 2020;Sakdapolrak, Borderon, and Sterly 2023), and that local contexts and people's own perceptions should be considered when linking migration, environmental change, and adaptation (Van Praag et al. 2021). ...
How are im/mobilities articulated, imagined and practiced in relation to multiple futures? A critical examination of im/mobilities raises questions as to how power relations and crisis-driven futures enable, inhibit or prevent mobility, what meanings are culturally constructed around im/mobilities and how they are experienced. The contributors to this volume look at entangled future mobilities and immobilities using humanities and social science approaches in diverse examples: Afrofuturist poetry, de-extinction projects, dystopian novels, a Uruguayan planned relocation program, lives of rural Zambian women, climate adaptation in Morocco and Austrian financial literacy policy.
... And perceptions of future impacts of climate change, notably coastal threats associated with future sea level rise, have also been shown to influence migration intentions Oakes et al., 2016;Stojanov et al., 2017). Other studies, however, report that perceived climate-related changes and impacts (Etzold et al., 2014;Goldbach, 2017;Shi et al., 2019) and future sea level changes (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014;Kelman et al., 2017) do not significantly affect migration decisions, or that perceived environmental risks (e.g., changes in drought or flooding severity) negatively affect migration intentions (Adger et al., 2021;Koubi, Stoll, & Spilker, 2016). Context-specific and socio-economic factors affect the extent to which perceptions of climate change influence migration: perceptions of climate impacts and associated migration responses may be more likely among those whose livelihoods are dependent on temperature and rainfall Warner & Afifi, 2014), those with more limited access to water resources and technologies (Parsons & Chann, 2019), and those with access to meteorological and climate-related information (Jha et al., 2018). ...
This article presents a new interpretive framework for understanding the implications of climate change for migration, and reviews and reflects on existing evidence and research gaps in light of this framework. Most existing climate‐migration research is heavily environment‐centric, even when acknowledging the importance of contextual or intervening factors. In contrast, the framework proposed here considers five different pathways through which climate change is affecting, or might affect, migration: short‐term shocks, long‐term climatic and related changes, environmental “pull” factors, climate adaptation and mitigation measures, and perceptions and narratives. In reviewing the existing evidence relating to each of these pathways, the paper finds among other things that short‐term shocks may simultaneously increase and reduce migration; that the evidence on long‐term trends provides a weak basis for understanding future dynamics; and that more attention needs to be paid to the other three pathways, by researchers and policymakers alike. Overall, the proposed framework and associated evidence review suggest a different and broader understanding of the migration implications of climate change from that outlined in the IPCC's most recent assessment, or in many existing reviews.
This article is categorized under: Climate and Development Knowledge and Action in Development
... The ancestry of the community is Polynesian, an ethnic minority within the predominately Melanesian Solomon Islands, and Ontong Javans are politically marginalized, although the traditional chief system of decision making is intact. Ontong Javans have been steadily leaving the atoll for the informal settlement of Lord Howe in Honiara (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014). Some of the diaspora are politically active, creating a parallel, informal governance system and lobbying the national government to aid the relocation of their people. ...
The Pacific region is experiencing accelerating global change with complex interactions amongst multiple drivers, yet the onus for urgent adaptation falls largely on communities. Proponents of adaptation must therefore ensure that communities are empowered and enabled to design and implement their own adaptation plans after project cycles have concluded, and that this capacity is scaled beyond the original focus. To address this challenge, we tested a new approach in the Solomon Islands for the iterative development, implementation and evaluation of community-led adaptation. Our theory of change was that by co-designing a decision-making process with a network of community facilitators, livelihood adaptation planning could be mainstreamed and scaled out across rural communities. We implemented a planning process based on systems thinking, social learning and co-production, which we assessed using a novel participatory monitoring, evaluation and learning framework. The process involved six steps: (1) identifying drivers of change; (2) developing shared visions for livelihoods; (3) scoping possible futures for livelihoods; (4) identifying existing community adaptive capacity; (5) determining priority 'no-regrets' strategies to achieve the community vision and (6) mapping adaptation pathways of implementation decisions. Community facilitators co-designed the process, and then ran it in their communities to develop place-based adaptation pathways suited to the local decision-making context, and scaling the process out to neighbouring villages through peer-to-peer learning. Results from a monitoring, evaluation and learning assessment showed the process had generated shifts in thinking among communities towards anticipatory adaptation and the development and implementation of livelihood adaptation pathways. The process had also empowered people to have ownership, responsibility and agency for their futures without major ongoing support from outside agencies. ARTICLE HISTORY
... Some scholars have suggested that island economies on a sustainable path to recovery should pivot on the local people as the core [26][27][28]. Among the many influencing factors associated with island resilience, the contribution of migration to island resilience has been confirmed [29,30]. However, the relationship between population mobility on a smaller timescale and island resilience remains to be tested, which is the main research focus and innovation point of this paper. ...
Islands may be more resilient than we realize when responding to shocks. As COVID-19 lessens international tourism to islands, it is valuable to explore whether island recovery can be accredited to the interactive behaviors within the island. Therefore, this research takes 18 administrative regions within Hainan Island as the research object, uses population migration big data to show the intra-island interaction network, and focuses on the impact of population mobility on economic resilience under the pandemic shock. Overall, population mobility contributes to the recovery of economic resilience under the pandemic shock, but this effect is regionally heterogeneous between the economic circle and the ecological conservation area. During the study period, there is a local spatial autocorrelation between economic resilience and population mobility, showing sporadic scattered distributions of the H-H, H-L and L-L cluster. The research findings offer practical strategies to improve island resilience.
... The results show that farmers' livelihood capital significantly increased by 15.67% after relocation; further, farmers reduced their dependence and pressure on natural capital, making them less vulnerable to the negative impact of climate change. Moreover, it can broaden income sources and increase opportunities to obtain social and financial capital (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014). However, many government departments are often more concerned about economic development and infrastructure construction, ignoring that farmers need the coordinated development of various types of capital in the context of climate change. ...
Purpose
This study aims to construct an evaluation system for farmers’ livelihood capital in minority areas and evaluate the impact of relocation in response to climate change on farmers’ livelihood capital.
Design/methodology/approach
According to the characteristics of Yunnan minority areas, the livelihood capital of farmers in minority areas is divided into natural, physical, financial, social, human and cultural capital. The improved livelihood capital evaluation system measures farmers’ livelihood capital from 2015 to 2021. The net impact of relocation on farmers’ livelihood capital was separated using propensity score matching and the difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method.
Findings
The shortage of livelihood capital makes it difficult for farmers to resist climate change, and the negative impacts of climate change further aggravate their livelihood vulnerability and reduce their livelihood capital. Relocation has dramatically increased the livelihood capital of farmers living in areas with poor natural conditions by 15.67% and has enhanced their ability to cope with climate change and realise sustainable livelihoods.
Originality/value
An improved livelihood capital evaluation system is constructed to realise the future localisation and development of livelihood capital research. The PSM-DID method was used to overcome endogeneity problems and sample selection bias of the policy evaluation methods. This study provides new ideas for academic research and policy formulation by integrating climate change, poverty governance and sustainable livelihoods.
... There is also evidence that initial migration-particularly if it is fragmentary or circular-can have a dampening effect on subsequent mobility from the place of origin. The resulting flow of remittances can serve to bolster household adaptive capacity, and thereby, reduce subsequent migration in response to future sea-level rise impacts (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014). Therefore, even when longer term forecasts suggest that a location may become uninhabitable, the resilience afforded by adapting in situ can slow subsequent large-scale mobility as populations are able make the decision to relocate "…at a time and to a location of their own choosing " (Jamero et al., 2017, p. 6). ...
There is a growing consensus that sea-level rise will have a significant influence on future patterns of population mobility. Populations across the globe are already experiencing the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly in small island developing states (SIDS) and low-lying coastal regions. Despite an expanding body of research on the climate-migration nexus, there is a lack of consensus about the quality, magnitude, and even direction of the impacts of sea-level rise on migration. Through a comprehensive review of the existing literature, this chapter offers a critique of existing approaches to research and conceptual models of the impact of sea-level rise on migration. In doing so, it identifies future research directions, including suggested future modeling techniques, and significance for policy. The review focuses on two key issues that are under-represented in studies to date: first, the significant impact of sea-level rise prior to inundation and the effect they will have on drivers of mobility; second, the lack of consideration around the relationship between these impacts and complex and dynamic pre-existing patterns of mobility. A significant proportion of research into sea-level rise and population mobility has focused on the impact of inundation. Exposed populations, however, will begin to experience environmental degradation as a result of sea-level rise well in advance of this, through increased storm surge, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion into agricultural soils and freshwater. Crucially, these effects are cumulative, leading to an intensification of environmental degradation. They exert heightened stress on livelihoods, particularly those related to agriculture, and ultimately threaten the safety of people. Prior studies often conceptualize mobility decision-making as a binary choice between whether to “migrate” or to “stay.” Migration, however, represents a dynamic, non-equilibrium system, where mobility decision-making evolves in response to shifting influences and drivers. Understanding the potential influence of sea-level rise, therefore, requires an analysis of how the differing, but interrelated, impacts of sea-level rise influences the pre-existing drivers of population mobility. This literature review focuses on examining how the additional stressors resulting from sea-level rise may exacerbate and intensify migration flows. It also draws on previous empirical studies to suggest conditions under which the cumulative effects are such that pre-existing patterns of mobility break down. These “threshold” conditions raise the potential for large-scale population displacement and abandonment of settlements well in advance of the timescales suggested by projections of inundation. Identifying these conditions has important implications in developing policy interventions to support vulnerable populations in meeting the threats associated with sea-level rise.
... Studies that highlight the benefits of climate mobilities for development often draw attention to the role migration can play in improving individuals' economic capital and in spreading the livelihood risks of their households in the place of origin. Examples of the benefits mobilities can offer include many more job opportunities in urban areas (Nawrotzki et al., 2015;Walter, 2015;Jessoe et al., 2018;Surie and Sharma, 2019), increased net income of migrants (Henderson et al., 2016), improved adaptive capacity of migrants to climate change (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014) and increased economic capitals of migrants' households in the place of origin by sending remittances (Greiner and Sakdapolrak, 2013;Titel, 2013). For instance, focusing on Bengaluru, India, Surie and Sharma (2019) show how the platform economyi.e., becoming a driver for Uber or Olain cities offers different coping strategies than just working in the informal economy for male workers whose migration decision was influenced by excessive rainfall and drought or extreme temperatures. ...
The relationship of climate change with human migration and mobility has been of interest to researchers and policymakers for >25 years but the past decade has seen a marked growth of attention on climate migration into cities. This paper offers a systematic review of publications across disciplines from 2011 to 2020 on the relationship. An initial 1037 publications on climate change, migration and urban development have been considered and it is shown that their appearance is closely related to the publication of influential policy documents on climate migration. A subset of 173 publications is reviewed in greater depth and urban informality, labour migration and policy intervention are identified as key topics that have been studied. This literature is disproportionally focused on South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa as well as large cities. Much attention continues to be directed towards the importance of climate change in the causes for migration although multiple conceptual and methodological difficulties are identified. Based on the findings, a research agenda for future research on climate mobilities are identified: the importance of scientific definitions of migrants and mobilities, sophisticated conceptualisations of the causalities that structure climate mobilities, and a better understanding of how those mobilities reconfigure urban informalities.
... It must also be recognized that despite its negative impacts, migration also has benefits such as improved access to financial and social capital, reduced pressure on natural resources, and reduced vulnerability of island communities to extreme weather events and other hazards. Hence, migration has been viewed as a form of climate change adaptation for atoll islands (Birk and Rasmussen 2014). ...
This report is the outcome of the UNEP-UN DESA foresight process on emerging issues for small island developing states (SIDS). It identifies 20 environmental and 15 socioeconomic emerging issues that should be addressed to ensure the sustainable development of the SIDS. The report recognized that many of the social and economic issues identified have strong environmental components and vice versa. Therefore, the report recommends that all issues should be viewed and addressed in a holistic and integrative manner.
... In another strand of literature, scholars have started to examine the link between migration and adaptation. First, migration is a means to reduce the demographic pressure on the environment(Birk and Rasmussen (2014)). Second, the consensus is that migration can enhance investments in adaptation, especially in protective infrastructures. ...
Sustainable development in Caribbean Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) is difficult to obtain because of their economic and social vulnerabilities. This thesis examines the sustainable resource allocation and economic growth of Caribbean SIDS using theoretical and numerical methods, and focusing on interactions between demographic and environmental dimensions. Due to their regional importance, I examine the effects of migration and remittances while taking into account local pollution and climate change.First, I describe the impacts of remittances on savings, fertility and education, with a special focus on intergenerational strategies. I show that potential positive effects from migration or remittances depend strongly on its positive effect on human capital accumulation, i.e. whether it is larger or not than the population growth.Because human capital accumulation also depends on the environment, in the second chapter I study the potential interactions between migration gains and environmental quality. If pollution exposure during childhood harms the human capital process, first there are new conditions for gains from migration which can decrease the demographic pressure on natural assets, second an environmental policy is beneficial.Finally, Caribbean SIDS cannot reduce the extent of climate change, leaving them no choice but to adapt to its effects, however this is costly and difficult to implement. The third chapter of this thesis addresses the use of migration, which leads to remittances that can fund adaptation measures. Therefore, I test whether there is a complementarity or a substitutability between the two strategies and show that it depend on the fundamentals of the economy.
... As articulated by Campbell (2014, p.4), climate change adaptation generally refers to "measures that enable communities to cope with, and where possible benefit from, the effects of global warming". Based on this definition, voluntary labour migration can serve as a positive adaptive response for Pacific communities vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Bardsley & Hugo, 2010;Barnett & Chamberlain, 2010;Barnett & Webber, 2010;ADB, 2012;Koser, 2012;Edwards, 2013;Birk & Rasmussen, 2014;Campbell, 2014;Campbell & Bedford, 2014;Hugo, 2014;IOM, 2014;World Bank, 2014;. More specifically, voluntary migration is identified as a way for communities to cope with environmental change through alleviating pressure on existing resources and diversifying income, thus allowing those who remain to better adapt to the effects of climate change. ...
There is growing consensus that voluntary labour migration can promote economic development in migrant sending and receiving countries and can be a positive adaptive response to the effects of climate change. However, for voluntary migration to be a positive form of adaptation, policy commitment and collaboration between migrant sending and receiving countries will be required. In the Pacific, Australia has capacity to collaborate with Pacific Island governments to facilitate voluntary migration; however, Australia has been reluctant to expand migration access to the Pacific. This article makes the case for promoting migration opportunities between Australia and the Pacific as part of the adaptive strategy efforts.
... 87 In such cases of slow-onset but chronic climate hazards, migration (i.e., permanent relocation) may be required. While migration has been recognized as an important adaptive strategy by some [88][89][90][91] , others are more critical as to whether migration constitutes successful adaptation, describing migration as a failure to adapt. 92,93 For example, migration may have negative impacts, such as the losses in cultural heritage and severing important people-place relationships 94 , which may have differential impacts on men and women within the same household. ...
As global temperatures increase, so do the frequency and severity of various natural hazards. Worldwide, climate change can influence incidences of natural hazards such as wildfires, flooding, heatwaves, droughts, vector-borne diseases, and mudslides. Such events can be deadly, traumatizing, and cause significant economic damages. Climate change adaptation, defined as the process of adjustment to reduce or avoid the negative impacts of climate change, is therefore of critical importance.
So far, the scientific literature on adaptation to climate change and climate change adaptation policies have overwhelmingly focused on the role of governments. However, the efforts of governments alone will not be sufficient to reduce or avoid the negative impacts of climate change. Climate change adaptation will need to take place at all scales, including the private sector and civil society. Private individuals and households will also need to take measures to reduce the risks of the negative impacts of climate change.8 In this background paper, we will focus specifically on the role of individuals and households in the process of climate change adaptation.
... It can potentially contribute to poverty alleviation, by diversifying income sources of at the household's levels, provided that conditions for migrants are improved. Migration improves access to financial and social capital, reduces pressure on natural resources and makes communities less vulnerable to extreme weather events and other shocks (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014). Nonetheless, so far, migration is receiving limited attention in adaptation policy and planning. ...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between gender and social capital in adapting to climate variability in the arid and semi-arid regions in Turkana in Kenya.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper undertook literature review of secondary data sources, conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs). The statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) was used to analyze data for the quantitative part of the paper.
Findings
Vulnerability is influenced by age, gender, education and disability. Elderly women are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate variability and change because they are the poorest in the community, followed by elderly men, the disabled, female-headed households, married women, men and, finally, the youth. Less than 30 per cent of women and men in both Katilu and Loima are able to read and write. The cross-tabulation results show that there is a statistical significant relationship between gender, age and education level and climate change vulnerability. This implies that gender, age and education level have a significant effect on climate change vulnerability.
Research limitations/implications
The research coverage was limited to only two regions in Turkana because of time and economic constraints.
Practical implications
The lack of attention to gender in the climate change literature has time and again resulted in an oversimplification of women’s and men's experience of climate risks. Improved development assistance, investments and enhanced targeting of the truly vulnerable within pastoral societies demand an acceptance of underdevelopment in arid and semi-arid regions in Kenya because of historical imbalances in investment; the recognition that vulnerability of pastoralists is neither uniform nor universal and the need to consider differences like age, gender and education. Policy-makers should understand that pastoralists in the past have used indigenous knowledge to cope with and adapt to climate change. The current-recurrent and intensity droughts require investment in modern technology, equipping pastoralists with relevant information and skills to make them resilient to climate change and implementing existing and relevant policies for northern Kenya.
Social implications
This paper draws from several other efforts to show the critical relationships between gender, social capital and climate change. They are tracking adaptation and measuring development framework; ending drought emergencies common programme framework; and feminist evaluation approach.
Originality/value
This paper is important in identifying the link between gender, social capital and adaptation to climate change.
... In general, most documented adaptation strategies in SIDS appear autonomous and reactive, often focus on changes in behavior and in infrastructure, and are targeted toward everyday climate-related challenges (climate variability) rather than long-term climate change, even though the latter may be (often wrongly) named as the justification for a particular intervention. Many strategies indicate high adaptive capacity-at least with regard to current climate variability-and highlight the importance of sharing and spreading risk, notably through social networks and through livelihood and income diversification (Be´ne´et al., 2016;Birk & Rasmussen, 2014;Campbell et al., 2011;da Costa et al., 2013). Nonetheless, there is also evidence of coping strategies that reduce adaptive capacity, for example, when savings are used or assets sold to restore livelihoods after a tropical storm (Be´ne´et al., 2016;da Costa et al., 2013;Lashley & Warner, 2015). ...
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) share a common vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation to climate change and variability is urgently needed yet, while some is already occurring in SIDS, research on the nature and efficacy of adaptation across SIDS is fragmentary. In this article, we systematically review academic literature to identify where adaptation in SIDS is documented; what type of adaptation strategies are taken, and in response to which climate change impacts; and the extent to which this adaptation has been judged as successful. Our analysis indicates that much adaptation research is concentrated on the Pacific, on independent island states, and on core areas within SIDS. Research documents a wide array of adaptation strategies across SIDS, notably structural or physical and behavioral changes. Yet, evaluation of concrete adaptation interventions is lacking; it thus remains unclear to what extent documented adaptation effectively and sustainably reduces SIDS’ vulnerability and increases their resilience.
... In the face of changes to weather patterns, sea levels, and human migration patterns in island communities, sustainable resource management initiatives seek interdisciplinary approaches to problems (Locke 2009, Birk and Rasmussen 2014, McMillen et al. 2014, Nunn et al. 2014. While various models have been used to inform conceptions of future environmental change, it is more difficult to predict how the complex feedback between human well-being and ecological health will manifest and impact livelihoods and biocultural resilience (Heikkinen et al. 2006, Uk 2007, O'Neill et al. 2014, Verburg et al. 2016. ...
Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment‐only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives.
We evaluate the impact of climate shocks on the well-being of farmer households in a Small Island Developing State in the Pacific, the Solomon Islands. We find that both subjective (self-assessed exposure to climate shocks) and objective (number of past dry spells) indicators of environmental stress significantly reduce the quality of life among households. Household well-being is more severely affected for farmers living in poor dwellings (e.g., those with thatched roofs signaling shelters less resistant to environmental shocks), with below median income or durable assets, living in isolated areas and not being members of agricultural associations. Furthermore, households affected by climate shocks experience a significantly higher proportion of nutritional problems. These findings support the hypothesis of a strong correlation between climate shocks, household well-being and nutritional status, advocating for the relevance of global climate adaptation policies such as loss and damage funds, as well as prevention strategies.
People living on low-lying coral atolls are highly exposed to climate change and there is much discussion that climate change is and will increasingly force their migration. This article presents findings from a systematic literature review on climate-change migration in atolls. We found an implicit (if not explicit) assumption in the literature that migration driven by climate change is already happening, yet the literature shows no empirical evidence of this to date. The prevailing assumption that outmigration is the only option has meant there is little consideration of local adaptation options in the literature, with little attention to how people living in these places may want to adapt, nor scrutiny of the enabling policies and institutions necessary for them to secure their futures.
Les manifestations de la vulnérabilité environnementale liée au changement climatique revêtent un caractère multiforme dans la ville de Ziguinchor. Parmi les plus évidentes soulignées par les populations, nous pouvons faire montre des inondations, de l’augmentation de la température de l’air, de la salinisation des terres et de la baisse de la pluviométrie. À Ziguinchor, une prise de conscience empirique des phénomènes naturels associés au changement climatique semble être une réalité. Pour évaluer l’impact de cette prise de conscience, un indice empirique de vulnérabilité environnementale a été construit à partir des réponses individuelles recueillies lors d’une enquête quantitative auprès de 260 chef-fe-s de ménage, répartis dans les 26 quartiers de la ville de Ziguinchor, à raison de 10 ménages par quartier. Les réponses individuelles et empiriques des chef-fe-s de ménage étaient relatives aux manifestations du changement climatique évoquées plus haut. Grâce à une analyse multi-échelles, une distribution plus hétérogène des effectifs des quartiers et des ethnies a été constatée selon les classes de l’indice empirique de vulnérabilité environnementale. Le changement d’échelle a aussi influé sur la significativité des différences relatives aux représentations ou réponses individuelles (chef-fe-s de ménage) des manifestations du changement climatique. Par ailleurs, si une prise de conscience empirique des manifestations du changement climatique semble s’avérer, l’analyse des réponses individuelles a en revanche révélé que 50 % des chef-fe-s de ménage ignorent les stratégies à mettre en œuvre pour atténuer les manifestations du changement climatique.
Flooding events are set to worsen in rapidly urbanising Pacific Islands. ⁽¹⁾ Most Pacific Island cities and towns are in low-lying areas vulnerable to more severe tropical cyclones and rising sea levels. Approaches to disaster response and recovery need to improve. This article uses four principles drawn from area-based approaches (ABAs) – people-centred responses, adaptive processes, multi-sector collaboration and reflective practice – to review urban disaster recovery efforts in Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Information was gathered through key informant interviews and a literature review. The research found positive examples of collaboration, locally tailored social protection mechanisms and community leadership. It also found challenges, including bypassed community structures and traditional adaptation techniques, duplication of efforts and weak coordination. The article concludes with a call to localise ABA approaches further, to strengthen people-centred disaster recovery and locally owned resilience.
Kiribati is the largest coral atoll state threatened by climate change. Marine livelihoods and fresh water supplies will be first threatened, increasing vulnerability, since mitigation possibilities are scarce. In recent years economic development has been limited, aid dependency considerable, and population growth rapid, resulting in significant development challenges. Unsustainable urbanisation accounts for half the national population; the more remote atolls are losing population. Even in pre-contact times atoll residents had a range of livelihood strategies, including migration, in response to hazards and scarce local opportunities. Over the past century i-Kiribati have migrated in search of employment, to the phosphate mines of Nauru, and on merchant shipping lines, and national agencies have increasingly trained i-Kiribati for overseas employment. Within Kiribati, settlement schemes, in response to poverty and food insecurity, from the Phoenix to the Line Islands, have settled relatively few. Growing population pressure on resources led to the notion of ‘migration with dignity’: planned movement into better paid employment overseas with a consequent greater flow of remittances. I-Kiribati have grasped diverse employment opportunities overseas, including agricultural labour, employment on cruise ships or employment in the Australian tourism industry. While recent policy has favoured rural development on outer atolls, international migration in search of superior livelihoods and better economic well-being is unlikely to diminish. Meeting everyday needs remains more crucial that contemplating worsening environmental pressures. International migration has become more permanent, favouring New Zealand, while climate change is likely to increase the demand for migration and resettlement.
Les manifestations de la vulnérabilité environnementale liée au changement climatique revêtent un caractère multiforme dans la ville de Ziguinchor. Parmi les plus évidentes soulignées par les populations, nous pouvons faire montre des inondations, de l’augmentation de la température de l’air, de la salinisation des terres et de la baisse de la pluviométrie. À Ziguinchor, une prise de conscience empirique des phénomènes naturels associés au changement climatique semble être une réalité. Pour évaluer l’impact de cette prise de conscience, un indice empirique de vulnérabilité environnementale a été construit à partir des réponses individuelles recueillies lors d’une enquête quantitative auprès de 260 chef-fe-s de ménage, répartis dans les 26 quartiers de la ville de Ziguinchor, à raison de 10 ménages par quartier. Les réponses individuelles et empiriques des chef-fe-s de ménage étaient relatives aux manifestations du changement climatique évoquées plus haut. Grâce à une analyse multi-échelles, une distribution plus hétérogène des effectifs des quartiers et des ethnies a été constatée selon les classes de l’indice empirique de vulnérabilité environnementale. Le changement d’échelle a aussi influé sur la significativité des différences relatives aux représentations ou réponses individuelles (chef-fe-s de ménage) des manifestations du changement climatique. Par ailleurs, si une prise de conscience empirique des manifestations du changement climatique semble s’avérer, l’analyse des réponses individuelles a en revanche révélé que 50 % des chef-fe-s de ménage ignorent les stratégies à mettre en œuvre pour atténuer les manifestations du changement climatique.
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2014 was the most comprehensive to date. Yet it left several gaps with regards to the impacts, implications and responses to climate change in small island developing states (SIDS). SIDS are recognized as a special grouping of developing countries. Located in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Caribbean, and Pacific regions, they comprise 58 countries that are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. With adaptation to climate change viewed as a viable and necessary complement to mitigation, academic interest in adaptation in these complex geographies is increasing. Despite this, not enough is known about the body of knowledge relating to adaptation in SIDS. This article systematically reviews 208 articles, books, book chapters, conference papers, and notes, and synthesizes the nature and extent of the research evidence before and after AR5 (i.e., from 1990 to 2014, and from 2015 to 2018). It specifically explores shifts in (a) when, where and by what means knowledge is being produced (e.g., subject areas, methodologies), and the ways in which adaptation is being framed (i.e., conceptually, operationally), (b) the narratives, consensuses, and tensions across the key emerging themes in the literature, and (c) the knowledge gaps that exist. It also outlines a future research agenda, which is an important consideration not only for multi‐scale actors working to help solve the global climate challenge, but also for the scholars preparing the Small Islands Chapter of the Sixth Assessment Report due in 2021.
This article is categorized under:
Climate and Development > Sustainability and Human Well‐Being
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies
Abstract
Shifts in sources of knowledge on climate change adaptation in SIDS with the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report's Small Islands Chapter.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which poses a challenge to their economic and social development. This vulnerability is expressed in several ways, from exposure to sea level rises, to salt intrusion, and extensive droughts in some areas. Despite this rather negative trend, there are examples of initiatives where the vulnerability of SIDS can be reduced, and their resilience may be increased. Based on the paucity of the literature on concrete examples of successful climate change adaptation initiatives on SIDS, this paper presents an overview of pertinent challenges faced, and introduces two case studies from the Solomon Islands, which illustrate how much can be achieved by systematically pursuing adaptation strategies. The lessons learned from these case studies are outlined and some useful insights are provided, which may help SIDS to better foster the development opportunities with climate change adaptation offers to them.
In island contexts, geographic characteristics such as remoteness and boundedness can substantially impact the capacity for connection, and how people experience the state of being connected, i.e. connectivity. Varying degrees of connectivity may, in turn, affect how island communities prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change, including extreme weather risks. Tropical cyclone warnings are a pertinent example; vital information must reach citizens in isolated peripheral locations, where both telecommunications infrastructure and cultural contexts may differ from the island core, leading to differences in how people access information. Drawing primarily on the case of Tonga, which was affected by Cyclone Gita in 2018, this paper explores these core-periphery patterns relating to how information channels are engaged with when facing extreme weather risks. Census data and cyclone impact data are used to assess spatial patterns in the extent of material and non-material connectivities based on communications, economic and linguistic variables, and to explore the impact of connectivity on the processes of risk reduction and natural hazard response, through dissemination of hazard information. Low-value clusters, i.e. coldspots, in receipt of warnings via ‘modern’ information channels (internet and SMS) are identified on ‘Eua, while hotspots are identified in western Tongatapu. These hotspots and coldspots do not appear to be linked to the accessibility of internet and mobile phones, but do overlap with hotspots and coldspots in linguistic and economic variables, illustrating the potential for non-material differences in socio-cultural context to influence how information channels are engaged with. The implications of these results, including challenges and opportunities for disaster risk dissemination in island peripheries, are also discussed.
An increasing number of people have to abandon their homes and livelihoods due to the adverse impacts of climate change. Human mobility has always been part of people’s lives, however, some movements, especially planned relocation in the context of climate change, have become involuntary. Non-economic losses occur and the question is whether the relocation of entire communities is still and adaptation response or falls under the realm of loss and damage (L&D) from climate change. This chapter explores the intersection between migration as an adaptation response and L&D with a focus on small island developing states. It analyses when human mobility can no longer be described as adaptation as non-economic losses become too high. It shows that existing frameworks are inadequate to assess community relocation in the context of L&D and non-economic losses. The chapter concludes that there is a spectrum leading from human mobility as an adaptation response to forced migration as L&D. It develops a new framework to assess planned relocation projects and provides concrete recommendations to reduce non-economic losses.
This book examines questions about the changing nature of security and insecurity in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Previous discussions of security in the Pacific region have been largely determined by the geopolitical interests of the Global North. This volume instead attempts to centre PICs’ security interests by focussing on the role of organisational culture, power dynamics and gender in (in)security processes and outcomes.
Mapping Security in the Pacific underscores the multidimensional nature of security, its relationship to local, international, organisational and cultural dynamics, the resistances engendered through various forms of insecurities, and innovative efforts to negotiate gender, context and organisational culture in reducing insecurity and enhancing justice. Covering the Pacific region widely, the volume brings forth context-specific analyses at micro-, meso- and macro-levels, allowing us to examine the interconnections between security, crime and justice, and point to the issues raised for crime and justice studies by environmental insecurity. In doing so, it opens up opportunities to rethink scholarly and policy frames related to security/insecurity about the Pacific.
Written in a clear and direct style, this book will appeal to students and scholars in criminology, sociology, cultural studies, social theory and those interested in learning about the Pacific region and different aspects of security.
The Micronesian atoll of Eauripik is one of the smallest and most remote populated islands in the Pacific. Its population live at a high density and combine subsistence production of tree and root crops with various forms of fishing from reefs, lagoon and ocean. Despite remoteness, significant changes have occurred in the management of food resources, alongside the introduction of imported foods and outboard motors and increased migration to urban centres amidst greater population mobility. The migration of men can result in local fish deficits and food shortages, where households have inadequate capital to purchase imported foods, but also results in the sending back of both imported foods such as rice, flour, tinned meat and instant noodles and new varieties of ‘traditional’ foods. Local foods, notably clams, are sent to migrants. Imported foods have tended to be consumed by immediate recipients while locally produced foods were shared more widely. The use of freezers to store fish has resulted in fishing being more individualised rather than undertaken cooperatively. Shortages of food may result from various factors, including hazard events and shortages of labour following illness, and have ensured that conservation practices, notably the management of coconuts, are retained. However, resorting to imported foods has weakened the significance of these strategies, and undermined the practice of sharing, emphasising the importance of understanding the social effects of ‘modernising’ projects for community food security.
Food security in Micronesia has worsened in the past half-century. Agriculture, fishing and local food production have all declined, even in the most remote islands, especially in peri-urban environments. Diets have incorporated more processed and imported foods, because of prestige, accessibility, cost and convenience, at financial, social, environmental and nutritional cost to countries and households. NCDs (non-communicable diseases) have grown rapidly throughout Micronesia. Household expenditure is dominated by imported foods, especially rice. Food security requires more adequate market access, but national resource bases are limited, and government intervention and policy formation are both weak and exhibit urban bias in unusually fragmented states. Households have negotiated multiple livelihoods across international boundaries with national and household incomes boosted by remittances which may become a distinctive key to achieving improved health and nutritional status.
Adaptability theory is an important tool to analyze the degree, mechanism and process of interaction between human and environment, which provides a new perspective for the research of sustainability assessment. Based on the entropy weight-TOPSIS method and the panel Tobit model from the perspective of adaptability, spatio-temporal difference and influencing factors of environmental adaptability assessment of human-sea economic system in Liaoning coastal area was measured by using the city panel data from 2000 to 2014. The results indicate that: 1) The environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system in Liaoning coastal area rose slowly from 2000 to 2014, the developing trend of each city was linearly related, and Dalian was in a leading position. 2) The different adaptability elements and adaptability subsystem show polarization phenomenon and completely different regional evolution characteristics. The adaptability of human-sea environment system and human-sea economic system rose slowly and had the characteristics of linear relationship, and the adaptability of human-sea environment system is the main reason for the difference of environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system. 3) Science and technology, environmental management, marine economic development level, port construction are the driving factors of the healthy development of environmental adaptability of urban human-sea economic system.
El Nino events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Nino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies(1-5) show that the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has become more common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Nino, termed the central Pacific El Nino (CP-El Nino; also termed the dateline El Nino(2), El Nino Modoki(3) or warm pool El Nino(5)), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Nino (EP-El Nino) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. Here we show changes in the ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-El Nino under projected global warming scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model data set(6). Using calculations based on historical El Nino indices, we find that projections of anthropogenic climate change are associated with an increased frequency of the CP-El Nino compared to the EP-El Nino. When restricted to the six climate models with the best representation of the twentieth-century ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-El Nino, the occurrence ratio of CP-El Nino/EP-El Nino is projected to increase as much as five times under global warming. The change is related to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific.
This paper describes recent geomorphic change on reef islands of Ontong Java atoll, Solomon Islands and discusses the nature of the 'steady state' equilibrium that has been proposed for cays and motus. The effects of a hurricane in 1967 are analysed through detailed field mapping in 1971, 1972 and 1986, and with reference to evidence from earlier charts and air photographs. It is concluded that the hurricane represents a high-magnitude low-frequency event necessary for the long-term replenishment of sediment on shorelines, but that in the short term such storms will seem to have mainly destructive effects. Since 1967 rubble ramparts thrown up by the hurricane have been largely reworked into stable landforms, mainly through the agency of more frequent, lower-magnitude storms. In parts of the atoll where coarse sediment was not deposited in 1967 there is a widespread retreat of seaward beaches. Such coastal erosion does not necessarily imply that islands have been destabilized by vegetation removal, climatic change or a rising sea level. It is only by considering the long-term sediment budget and the relaxation time of landforms in relation to major hurricanes that decisions can be reached about whether particular reef islands are in equilibrium with process.
Increasing attention has been given to the issue of adaptation as a response to climate change, especially for Pacific Island countries (PICs) which have been identified as among those most likely to be effected. One set of adaptive responses that has received a considerable amount of media and political attention is relocation of communities from sites that might be rendered uninhabitable. There has been much postulation about the likely need for, or problems associated with, relocation. However, there has been very little research into the types of relocation that might be required, and the social, cultural, political, economic and environmental implications of such an adaptive option. Relocation, although a last resort, may become more common with many communities residing close to the high water mark on the coast, on atolls, in wetland areas and on river flood plains. While most attention has been focused on international relocation (particularly of atoll populations) other forms of relocation are likely to be at least as significant including moves within countries (island to island) and within single islands including "proximate" relocation such as moving inland from a coastal village site. All forms of relocation have happened and/or continue to occur in Pacific Island countries for a variety of reasons including phosphate mining, nuclear testing and tropical cyclone events, particularly following storm surge devastation. The movements have often been associated with social, cultural, political, economic and environmental issues such as tensions over land, community dislocation, inadequate resources and unsuitable sites. The paper reports on field research in Fiji and analysis of literature sources to establish a comprehensive list of relocated communities in the region, procedures under which relocation occurred and implications of relocation for the communities concerned.
The impacts of climate change are likely to affect population distribution and mobility. While alarmist predictions of massive flows of refugees are not supported by past experiences of responses to droughts and extreme weather events, predictions for future migration flows are tentative at best. What we do know is that mobility and migration are key responses to environmental and non-environmental transformations and pressures. They should therefore be a central element of strategies of adaptation to climate change. This requires a radical change in policy makers’ perceptions of migration as a problem and a better understanding of the role of local and national institutions in supporting and accommodating mobility.
El Niño events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on sub-decadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Niños in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies show that the canonical El Niño has become less frequent and that a different El Niño "flavor" has become more common during the late twentieth century in which warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific is flanked on the east and west by cooler SST. This flavor, termed the central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño; also termed the dateline El Niño or El Niño Modoki or Warm pool El Nino), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. Here we show changes in the ratio of CP-El Niño to EP-El Niño under projected global warming scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model dataset.Using calculations based on historical El Niño indices, we find that projections of anthropogenic climate change are associated with an increased frequency of the CP-El Niño compared to the EP-El Niño. When restricted to the six climate models with the best representation of the twentieth century ratio of CP-El Niño to EP-El Niño, the occurrence ratio of CP-El Niño/EP-El Niño is projected to increase as much as five times under global warming. The change is related to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Island nations face similar challenges from climate change to those faced by
other developing nations, yet these are exacerbated by the comparative smallness, remoteness, and
archipelagic character of many of the islands. Proposed solutions to the effects of climate change in
the Pacific Islands have often been uncritically imposed from elsewhere and have often proved
unsuited to both their environmental and cultural contexts. Effective solutions to challenges of climate
change in the Pacific Islands should acknowledge their unique environmental characteristics,
particularly their high insularity (coastal length to land area) ratios, their topographic and geological
diversity, and the raw materials available to support adaptation. It is important for policy makers to
understand the cultural influences that have helped shape current environmental decision making,
and the ways in which adaptations to climate change can be sustained. The efficacy of donor preferences
for aid funding of policy development (top-down) rather than empowering community-level
decision-makers (bottom-up) is questionable. Pacific Island governments are focused on economic
growth, with little tangible investment in non-profit environmental sustainability. In the future they
should take on ownership of the climate-change adaptation process to a greater degree than they do
at present, with external assistance brought in only for special cases and for the trialling of novel solutions,
rather than for routine adaptation. Globally, there should be less emphasis on sea-level rise as
the principal challenge posed by climate change to Pacific Island nations and a better appreciation of
the other challenges, particularly inundation and salinization of economically critical lowland, as well
as coral-reef degradation.
Island communities stand to be among the first and most adversely affected by the impacts of global climate change. Rising sea levels, changing precipitation and storm patterns, and increasing air and sea-surface temperatures stress already limited island resources while climate change policies circumscribe local decision making. Anthropologists make important contributions to understanding island-based knowledge, global causes of vulnerability, local perceptions of risk, and islander agency channeled into adaptive capacity and resilience. A conceptual framework that recognizes both the complexity of the causes of island vulnerability and the constraints and opportunities available to islanders offers an analytical approach to understanding islander responses to climate change, including migration. The framework is used to show that island communities are not merely isolated, small, and impoverished but that they are often deeply globally connected in ways that reject such simple descriptions and will be ...
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.
Holocene sea-level changes affected people living in the Pacific Islands and their ancestors along the western Pacific Rim. Sea-level changes, particularly those that were rapid, may have led to profound and enduring societal/lifestyle changes. Examples are given of (1) how a rapid sea-level rise (CRE-3) about 7600 BP could ultimately have led to the earliest significant cross-ocean movements of people from the western Pacific Rim into the islands; (2) how mid to late Holocene sea-level changes gradually created coastal environments on Pacific Islands that were highly attractive to human settlers; (3) a hypothesis that rapid sea-level fall during the ‘AD 1300 Event' brought about widespread disruption to trajectories of cultural evolution throughout the Pacific Islands; and (4) the effects of recent and likely future sea-level rise on Pacific Island peoples.
Paleosea-level data for the Pacific Islands suggest that sea level in the region fell, possibly in two stages, between 680 and 475 cal yr B.P. (A.D. 1270–1475). This was associated with a ∼1.5°C fall in temperature (determined from oxygen-isotope analysis) and an observed increase in El Niño frequency. For a long time, it has been clear that these changes—characterized as the “A.D. 1300 event”—brought about environmental and cultural changes on Pacific Islands. These are documented here systematically for the first time. Temperature fall, sea-level fall, and possibly short-lived precipitation increase are the principal effects of the A.D. 1300 event. Temperature fall stressed ecosystems, but its effects are difficult to separate from those of the others. Sea-level fall saw dramatic falls of nearshore coral-reef productivity and the formation of (habitable) reef islands (motu). Precipitation rise increased upland erosion and lowland sedimentation. The human outcomes of these environmental changes are organized in three groups: conflict, settlement-pattern changes, and the end of long-distance voyaging. Conflict increased during/after the A.D. 1300 event because of an abrupt fall in the food resource base. This also caused large coastal settlements on many islands to be abandoned in favor of caves and/or smaller fortified hilltop settlements. Successful long-distance voyages ceased during/after the A.D. 1300 event, as did interisland exchange within many archipelagoes. The regional (rather than local) extent of the A.D. 1300 event is demonstrated. Questions remain as to its synchronicity and duration. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
The rise and fall of the bêche-de-mer trade in Solomon Islands is an example of how small, remote island communities are influenced by drivers of change on both the national and international scales. This susceptibility leads to local economic collapses and changed livelihoods. This article focuses on small-island livelihoods, socio-economic responses to fluctuating markets and the instability caused by internal and external forces of change. Quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews and participant observation have been used to explore the development trajectories of Ontong Java, a Polynesian outlier in Solomon Islands, in the context of the bêche-de-mer trade over the past forty years. The main findings can be captured in four distinct periods that demonstrate the transformation of this atoll community from subsistence-oriented strategies to specialization in marine resource extraction to economic collapse and return to subsistence. It is concluded that this atoll population has shown a remarkable ability to adjust and cope with processes of globalization.
This paper reviews the concept of adaptive capacity and various approaches to assessing it, particularly with respect to climate variability and change. I find that adaptive capacity is a relatively under-researched topic within the sustainability science and global change communities, particularly since it is uniquely positioned to improve linkages between vulnerability and resilience research. I identify opportunities for advancing the measurement and characterization of adaptive capacity by combining insights from both vulnerability and resilience frameworks, and I suggest several assessment approaches for possible future development that draw from both frameworks and focus on analyzing the governance, institutions, and management that have helped foster adaptive capacity in light of recent climatic events.Research highlights► Adaptive capacity is a central, but often overlooked concept within both vulnerability and resilience frameworks. ► Assessments of adaptive capacity that draw from the benefits of both vulnerability and resilience research can serve to advance theory and application within the field of sustainability science. ► Assessments can be improved by examining governance, institutions, and management preparations for and responses to recent climatic events. ► Additional novel approaches need to be considered for measuring and characterizing adaptive capacity.
Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.
Previous research has postulated that climate change will lead to mass migration. However, the linkages postulated between
the two have not been explicitly demonstrated but have rather been derived from ‘common sense’. In this paper, the connection
between climate change and migration via two mechanisms, sea level rise and floods, is investigated and depicted in conceptual
models. In both cases, a connection can be traced and the linkages are made explicit. However, the study also clearly shows
that the connection is by no means deterministic but depends on numerous factors relating to the vulnerability of the people
and the region in question.
This paper explores the value of using community risk assessments (CRAs) for climate change adaptation. CRA refers to participatory methods to assess hazards, vulnerabilities and capacities in support of community-based disaster risk reduction, used by many NGOs, community-based organizations, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent. We review the evolution of climate change adaptation and community-based disaster risk reduction, and highlight the challenges of integrating global climate change into a bottom-up and place-based approach. Our analysis of CRAs carried out by various national Red Cross societies shows that CRAs can help address those challenges by fostering community engagement in climate risk reduction, particularly given that many strategies to deal with current climate risks also help to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Climate change can also be explicitly incorporated in CRAs by making better use of CRA tools to assess trends, and by addressing the notion of changing risks. However, a key challenge is to keep CRAs simple enough for wide application. This demands special attention in the modification of CRA tools; in the background materials and trainings for CRA facilitators; and in the guidance for interpretation of CRA outcomes. A second challenge is the application of a limited set of CRA results to guide risk reduction in other communities and to inform national and international adaptation policy. This requires specific attention for sampling and care in scaling up qualitative findings. Finally, stronger linkages are needed between organizations facilitating CRAs and suppliers of climate information, particularly addressing the translation of climate information to the community level.
We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability areusedtoidentifykeyvulnerabilityindicators.Wefindthat11keyindicatorsexhibitastrongrelationshipwithdecadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgementdata,collectedthroughafocusgroupexercise.Thedataareusedtoprovidearobustassessmentofvulnerabilityto climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity—one element of vulnerability—is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.
Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financial burdens associated with adaptation programs. How to "mainstream" adaptation into development programs is another topic for debate, as is the question of whether market-based approaches offer the right tools for both development and adaptation. Sociological insights on topics such as the political economy of development, disaster risk reduction, human migration in the face of environmental change, institutions, social movements, and public participation in environmental governance are applicable to the study of adaptation.
History tells us that humans are perfectly capable of adapting to a changing environment. The past ice ages are proof of the great adaptive capacity of our kind. Anthropogenic climate change will happen – and, if unabated – with catastrophic consequences. More extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and a hotter and drier climate are some of the predicted outcomes seriously affecting people’s choice of where to live on an increasingly crowded planet. Climate–induced migration is not new, as already in the past people moved when faced by environmental change; but today, population densities have increased dramatically, and arable land has become more limited. Large cross–border streams of ‘climate migrants’ or ‘environmental refugees’ caused by tropical cyclones, associated flooding and landslides, droughts, and sea–level rise could trigger resource competition with violent outcomes in the receiving country or region. But can these claims be substantiated? This chapter examines different types of natural hazards relevant for climate–induced migration, and argues that without an analysis identifying the people most vulnerable to natural hazards (for example, where they live and how they are affected), it is difficult to access the conflict potential of climate-induced migration.
This chapter presents an empirical study examining the relationship between environmental stress and rural–urban migration in northern Ethiopia. It begins with an exploration of the evolution of the debate on environmental refugees, arguing that, more than anything else, this debate has constituted a battle for discursive legitimacy. From this perspective the chapter uses case studies from northern Ethiopia to show that mobility forms an important social response to environmental stress, but notes that it does so because of the socio-political and economic context in which such stress occurs, rather than in spite of it. To this end case studies from northern Ethiopia will be used to challenge the conception of migration as a failure to adapt and/or as a strategy inevitably pursued at the end point of vulnerability. In so doing the chapter will argue that migration represents a strategic livelihood option, only enacted when the contexts (social, economic, and political) structuring other livelihood options mean that it makes sense to do so. Here the chapter will argue for the politicization and historical location of mobility decisions taken in a context of environmental stress. Specifically the chapter argues that it is micro-scale, socio-political, and economic contexts which determine whether migration is enacted in response to the imperatives generated by macro-scale processes of environmental stress. The chapter closes with a reflection on the implications of these findings for policy.
Small Island Developing States are often depicted as being among the most vulnerable of all places to the effects of climate change, and they are a cause c?l?bre of many involved in climate science, politics and the media. Yet while small island developing states are much talked about, the production of both scientific knowledge and policies to protect the rights of these nations and their people has been remarkably slow. This book is the first to apply a critical approach to climate change science and policy processes in the South Pacific region. It shows how groups within politically and scientifically powerful countries appropriate the issue of island vulnerability in ways that do not do justice to the lives of island people. It argues that the ways in which islands and their inhabitants are represented in climate science and politics seldom leads to meaningful responses to assist them to adapt to climate change. Throughout, the authors focus on the hitherto largely ignored social impacts of climate change, and demonstrate that adaptation and mitigation policies cannot be effective without understanding the social systems and values of island societies.
The implications of environmental change for migration are little
understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of
in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a
rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames
migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural
resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by
communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective
adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to
undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This
paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will
influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to
migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in
Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be
guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced
effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are
maximised.
Past and current impacts of climate change on three small islands, Ontong Java, Bellona and Tikopia, in the Solomon Islands are studied on the basis of a survey of production systems, household questionnaires and key informant and group interviews. Perceptions of the local population are compared to regional observations on climate variability and change. The adaptive measures taken in the past are identified. It is concluded that the capacity to cope with and adapt to climate variability and extreme weather events is well developed, and the social resilience of island communities appears to be high. It is further shown that the differences between islands are large with regard to the types of climate change observed, the exposure of the islands to the changes and the perceptions of the severity. The differences are due to location, bio-physical and terrain conditions and socio-economic factors, including the level of integration into a greater economic and demographic context, the importance of different productive activities and the social organization.
The combination of rising sea level and increased storminess that is expected to accompany changes in global climate due to the greenhouse effect may well have severe impacts on low-lying coral islands in tropical oceans. This paper deals principally with the atoll island states of Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu which comprise only coral-rubble islands with land rarely rising more than 3m above present sea level. Their combined populations are about 300 000, and since colonial times, island economies have not achieved self-sufficiency. Presently they are substantially dependent on foreign aid and remittances from islanders who work overseas. The situation is worsening as natural resources decline, populations grow, aspirations for better living standards increase and the terms of trade worsen. Atoll island ecology and the ability to sustain human habitation depend in large part on fresh ground water reserves which are related to island size. Ground water degradation due to greenhouse-induced coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying ground will further reduce agricultural productivity and other island resources. The economic and social viability of atoll island states in the future is therefore doubtful; their people may become the first environmental refugees of the greenhouse era. -Authors
Migration is one of the variety of ways by which human populations adapt to environmental changes. The study of migration in the context of anthropogenic climate change is often approached using the concept of vulnerability and its key functional elements: exposure, system sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This article explores the interaction of climate change and vulnerability through review of case studies of dry-season migration in the West African Sahel, hurricane-related population displacements in the Caribbean basin, winter migration of ‘snowbirds’ to the US Sun-belt, and 1930s drought migration on the North American Great Plains. These examples are then used as analogues for identifying general causal, temporal, and spatial dimensions of climate migration, along with potential considerations for policy-making and future research needs. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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This article approaches the problem of environment and migration through a consideration of convergent themes regarding nature and society in ecological theory and in social scientific disaster research. The paper argues that the articulation between ecological and social theory provides grounding concepts for both framing the issue and research on the problem of actual and potential mass displacement of human populations by environmental change, specifically global climate change. This article asserts that effective policy responses to environmental displacement and migration cannot be developed without an in-depth understanding of the phenomena of climate change, human-environment relations, and migration and the linkages among them. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are almost certain. What these outcomes mean for different populations, however, is far less certain. Climate change is both a narrative and material phenomenon. In so being, understanding climate change requires broad conceptualisations that incorporate multiple voices and recognise the agency of vulnerable populations. In climate change discourse, climate mobility is often characterised as the production of ‘refugees’, with a tendency to discount long histories of ordinary mobility among affected populations. The case of Tuvalu in the Pacific juxtaposes migration as everyday practice with climate refugee narratives. This climate-exposed population is being problematically positioned to speak for an entire planet under threat. Tuvaluans are being used as the immediate evidence of displacement that the climate change crisis narrative seems to require. Those identified as imminent climate refugees are being held up like ventriloquists to present a particular (western) ‘crisis of nature’. Yet Tuvaluan conceptions of climate challenges and mobility practices show that more inclusive sets of concepts and tools are needed to equitably and effectively approach and characterise population mobility.
Abstract Tuvalu, a place whose image in the ‘West’ is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change-related sea-level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as .tragic victims. of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low-lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change.
Mobility, motivated by various factors, has long been a part of many cultures. A case study of Vietnam's migration trends highlights the social and environmental impacts of these demographic changes.
The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.
Sea level rise is perhaps the most damaging repercussion of global warming, as 150 million people live less than one meter above current high tides .Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in coastal sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12 -20 years.
This paper traces the history of human-environment interactions in the Pacific Islands during the last millennium, focusing on three main periods: the Little Climatic Optimum, the Little Ice Age, and, in greatest detail, the transition around A.D. 1300 between the two.
The Little Climatic Optimum (approximately A.D. 750-1300) was marked by warm, rising temperatures, rising sea level and probably increasing aridity. The latter condition was linked to development of water-conservatory strategies (agricultural terracing being the most common) requiring cooperation between human groups which facilitated formation of large nucleated settlements and increased sociopolitical complexity.
The transition period (approximately A.D. 1270-1475) involved rapid temperature and sea-level fall, perhaps a short-lived precipitation increase. Temperature fall stressed crops and reef organisms, sea-level fall lowered water tables and exposed reef surfaces reducing their potential as food resources for coastal dwellers. Increased precipitation washed away exposed infrastructure. Consequently food resource bases on many islands diminished abruptly across the transition.
The Little Ice Age (approximately A.D. 1300-1800) was marked by cooler temperatures and lower sea levels. The lingering effects of the earlier transition largely determined human lifestyles during this period. Conflict resulted from resource depletion. Unprotected coastal settlements were abandoned in favour of fortified inland, often upland, settlements. Climate change is suggested to have been a important determinant of human cultural change during the last millennium in the Pacific Islands.
Greenhouse-induced sea-level rise (SLR) threatens coral atolls and particularly the few atoll states, such as Tuvalu. This central Pacific island microstate has minimal economic development options, and has increasingly perceived emigration and remittances as a development strategy, despite restricted opportunities. Internal migration, in search of wage employment, has brought almost half the national population to Funafuti atoll, with negative local environmental consequences. Short-term scientific data show no evidence of SLR in Tuvalu, but the Government of Tuvalu has argued that there is visual evidence of SLR, through such consequences as increased erosion, flooding and salinity. Global media have increasingly emphasised a doomsday scenario, with Tuvalu as synecdoche and symbol of all threatened island environments. Environmental problems of diverse origin have been entirely attributed to distant processes causing SLR, in terms of ‘garbage can anarchy’ or a ‘conspiracy narrative’, and thus to distant causes. The Tuvalu Government has consequently sought compensation from, and migration opportunities in, distant states. The construction of apparently imminent hazard has potential domestic political and economic advantages, but environmental costs.
Modern atoll reefs began to grow after rising postglacial eustatic sea level overtopped degraded carbonate platforms that had been exposed as subaerial limestone plateaus during synglacial drawdowns in sea level. Stable atoll islets atop emer-gent paleoreef flats did not begin to develop until after the mid-Holocene hydro-isostatic sea level highstand in the tropi-cal Pacific Ocean. Atolls have been occupied since stable islets formed during the last two millennia. Rising global sea level will impact atoll environments adversely for continued habita-tion once ambient high-tide level rises above the mid-Holocene low-tide level. That crossover will submerge the resistant pa-leoreef flats that underpin stable atoll islets and subject their unconsolidated sediment cover to incessant wave attack before ambient sea level actually overtops the islets.
This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.
Many of the debates surrounding the environmental, social, and economic implications of climate change are now well known. However, there is increasing concern over the extent to which those suffering displacement or forced migration as a result of climate change are protected. This article seeks to highlight the plight of such individuals and suggests how the current protection gap might be remedied. Present legal structures, such as the Refugee Convention and the framework for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), prove largely inadequate having been constructed for different purposes and being limited in their application. The alternative proposed in this article is a regionally oriented regime operating under the auspices of the UN Climate Change Framework. While both the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol currently call for regional cooperation in respect of adaptation activities, it is argued there should be an explicit recognition of so-called climate change refugees in the post-Kyoto agreement that allows for, and facilitates, the development of regional programs to address the problem. Employing such a strategy would remedy the current protection gap that exists within the international legal system, while allowing states to respond and engage with climate change displacement in the most regionally appropriate manner.
This review of the literature concludes that development studies have paid insufficient attention to labour migration, and makes a plea to integrate analyses of migration within those of agricultural and rural development. It emphasises that population mobility is much more common than is often assumed, and that this has been so throughout human history. In fact, available material suggests that it is as likely that population mobility has decreased as that it has increased. A review of empirical studies shows that it may not be possible to generalise about the characteristics of migrants, or about the effects of migration on broader development, inequality or poverty. The review concludes that, given the importance of migration for the rural livelihoods of many people, policies should be supportive of population mobility, and possibilities should be explored to enhance the positive effects of migration.
We use a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000years of global temperatures and sea
level. We estimate likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization
of past and future sea level scenarios. The model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated
against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry. Future sea level is projected from intergovernmental
panel on climate change (IPCC) temperature scenarios and past sea level from established multi-proxy reconstructions assuming
that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000years minimum sea level (−19 to −26cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21cm) around 1150 ad. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3m for the A1B scenario, with low probability of the rise being within
IPCC confidence limits.
This paper shows the extent to which people in Funafuti – the main island of Tuvalu – are intending to migrate in response to climate change. It presents evidence collected from Funafuti to challenge the widely held assumption that climate change is, will, or should result in large-scale migration from Tuvalu. It shows that for most people climate change is not a reason for concern, let alone a reason to migrate, and that would-be migrants do not cite climate change as a reason to leave. People in Funafuti wish to remain living in Funafuti for reasons of lifestyle, culture and identity. Concerns about the impacts of climate change are not currently a significant driver of migration from Funafuti, and do not appear to be a significant influence on those who intend to migrate in the future.
Claims have been made that global environmental change could drive anywhere from 50 to almost 700 million people to migrate by 2050. These claims belie the complexity of the multi-causal relationship between coupled social–ecological systems and human mobility, yet they have fueled the debate about “environmentally induced migration”. Empirical evidence, notably from a 23 case study scoping study supported by the European Commission, confirms that currently environmental factors are one of many variables driving migration. Fieldwork reveals a multifaceted landscape of patterns and contexts for migration linked to rapid- and slow-onset environmental change today. Migration and displacement are part of a spectrum of possible responses to environmental change. Some forms of environmentally induced migration may be adaptive, while other forms of forced migration and displacement may indicate a failure of the social–ecological system to adapt. This diversity of migration potentials linked to environmental change presents challenges to institutions and policies not designed to cope with the impacts of complex causality, surprises and uncertainty about social–ecological thresholds, and the possibility of environmental and migration patterns recombining into a new patterns. The paper highlights fieldwork on rapid- and slow-onset environmentally induced migration in Mozambique, Vietnam, and Egypt. Current governance frameworks for human mobility are partially equipped to manage new forms of human mobility, but that new complementary modes of governance will be necessary. The paper concludes with challenges for governance of environmentally induced migration under increasing complexity, as well as opportunities to enhance resilience of both migrants and those who remain behind.
Small island literature is vast in focus and aim, and is rooted in many different disciplines. The challenge is to find common grounds for researching small islands conceptually and theoretically. The aim of this article is to comment on how to research small islands, including a discussion on contemporary theories of nissology and conceptual analytical frameworks for island research. Through a review of selected case-study-based island literature on changing livelihoods coming out of the South Pacific, we wish to illustrate and discuss advantages of finding common grounds for small island studies. The focus is on two dimensions of island livelihood, migration and natural resource management, both of which are significant contributors in making island livelihoods and shaping Pacific seascapes. We argue that there is still a substantial lack of studies targeting small island dynamics that are empirical and interdisciplinary in focus and link socio-economic and ecological processes of small island societies at temporal and analytical scales.