Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. WMO/UNEP
... Studies on the quantification of CH 4 emissions from MPSs may reveal the emission level and opportunity to identify alternative options to reduce emissions from dairying. The Revised 1996 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventories (IPCC Guidelines) were applied for estimation of CH 4 from enteric fermentation [1]. The IPCC Guidelines use different approaches or tiers to estimate CH 4 emissions. ...
... CH 4 emissions from livestock production account for 37% of the total anthropogenic CH 4 [8]. Cattle livestock are responsible for a greater portion of CH 4 emissions than non-cattle livestock [1]. ...
... were greater than the values for Africa (46 kg CH 4 head −1 ·yr −1 ) estimated using the default factor Tier 1 [1]. The IPCC tier 1 methodology uses generic assumptions and factors related to livestock management to estimate CH 4 emissions and rely on default factors published by the IPCC [7]. ...
The paper reports research to quantify enteric methane (CH4) emissions and mitigation opportunities from milk production systems (MPSs) and cattle breeds. Data were collected from a total of 24 dairy producers. A questionnaire survey was used to collect primary inputs and outputs. CH4 emissions were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 approach. The CH4 estimates per mature crossbred cow were significantly greater for the large-scale MPS (72.76) (p < 0.05) than for the (peri-)urban (64.04) and rural MPSs (56.62 kg CH4 head−1·yr−1). No significant differences (p > 0.05) were observed between the rural and (peri-) urban MPSs. The large-scale MPS had lower CH4 emissions per kg of milk than the other two MPSs. This study uses country-specific data and indicates that cattle breed management was more important than MPSs for reducing CH4 emissions.
... Changes in crop yields in response to variations in average temperatures or fluctuations in temperature are examples of direct effects of this. On the other hand, it may have an indirect impact, such as harm from more frequent coastal floods brought on by sea level rise Houghton et al. (2001). The sensitivity of a specific program or development plan to various hazards may differ across different locations, as the climate sensitivity of a plan or program is specific to each study area NPC (2011). ...
... The sensitivity of a specific program or development plan to various hazards may differ across different locations, as the climate sensitivity of a plan or program is specific to each study area NPC (2011). c) Adaptive Capacity: Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, take advantage of opportunities, or respond to consequences Houghton et al. (2001). ...
... The primary components of LVI were derived from the IPCC reports (Houghton et al., 2001) and the subcomponents have been adapted from Hahn et al. (2009). According to the requirements of the study area and geographical considerations, the average of sub-major components was calculated using multiple factors as given in Tables 2 and 3. ...
This study assesses the climate change vulnerability of livelihoods across altitudinal gradients in the Kaski district of Nepal. A sample of sixty-five households from four different communities in municipalities (Annapurna rural municipality and Machhapuchchhre rural municipality) was selected through random sampling and surveyed at various elevations. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach and the Composite Index Method (CIM) were employed to evaluate and determine IPCC-VI. To derive Adaptive capacity, Sensitivity, and Exposure, the components such as Social Demographic Profile (SDP), Social Networking (SN), Livelihood Strategies (LS), Health (H), Water (W), Food (F), Natural Disaster and Climate Variability (ND CV) were used. The trend of the temperature and rainfall were analyzed and it was found that the mean annual maximum temperature is increasing at a rate of 0.036°C per year and the annual rainfall is decreasing at 14.532 mm per year. Among the communities, Melache (2210m), in Annapurna Rural Municipality exhibited the highest vulnerability (IPCC-VI: 0.118), whereas Hudu (1490m) showed a lower vulnerability index (0.025). In Machhapuchchhre Rural Municipality, Dhampus upper region (1660m) displayed moderate vulnerability (IPCC-VI: 0.043), with the Dhampus lower region (1360m) showing the least vulnerability (-0.011). So, all the communities demonstrated intermediate vulnerability levels indicating a need for tailored adaptation strategies across the elevation levels. Effective adaptation efforts could improve community resilience by addressing local climate challenges, ensuring sustainable livelihoods, and reducing future vulnerability risks.
... Climate variability refers to the Spatio-temporal fluctuation of climatic conditions [7]. Climate variability is also defined by [13] as fluctuations in the mean state and other statistical descriptions of severe climatic conditions on all temporal and geographical scales beyond individual weather occurrences. Climate variability, according to [13], is defined as a climatic parameter of an area that deviates from its long-term mean. ...
... Climate variability is also defined by [13] as fluctuations in the mean state and other statistical descriptions of severe climatic conditions on all temporal and geographical scales beyond individual weather occurrences. Climate variability, according to [13], is defined as a climatic parameter of an area that deviates from its long-term mean. The importance of Spatio-temporal scales of meteorological occurrences is also emphasized once more. ...
... The importance of Spatio-temporal scales of meteorological occurrences is also emphasized once more. The [14] definition of climatic variability is similar to that of [13], with a focus on the variability dimensions. ...
Climate is a complex system involving the atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice, oceans, and other water bodies. It is measured by variations in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particles, and other meteorological variables over a 30-year period. Climate change has gained momentum due to anthropogenic disturbances, which may negatively impact human health and the biosphere. The complex relationships between humans, microbes, and the biosphere are causing an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs), causing global warming and other cascade effects. Climate change is a key environmental concern, posing challenges to ecosystems, food security, water resources, and economic stability. Historical climate records and projected patterns across global regions have confirmed this, with Ethiopia experiencing significant increases in annual mean temperature, hot days, and nights. Climate variability refers to the Spatio-temporal fluctuation of climatic conditions, focusing on the variability dimensions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has declared climate change a key environmental concern. Climate in Ethiopia is characterized by significant geographic variance in rainfall and temperature data. The country has three seasons: bega (dry season) from October to January, belg (short rain season) from February to May, and kiremt (long rainy season) from June to September. The country's climate is influenced by the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its varied geography, affecting landforms, natural landscapes, and local people's living situations. Coffee is susceptible to drought, over-wetting, and wind damage because its production and quality are largely dependent on temperature and rainfall levels. In key coffee-growing regions around the world, the yield of coffee is at risk due to climate change and unpredictability. The production of coffee is expected to be severely impacted by high temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns in terms of yield, quality, pests, and illnesses.
... In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out in its report that "one of the most serious consequences of climate change is to affect population mobility (Houghton, 1996). Nicholas Stern put forward a clear message in the "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2007)": Climate change is a severe problem, and the earth's climate is changing rapidly, mainly due to the increase in greenhouse gases caused by human activities (Stern and Stern, 2007;. ...
... Following the hierarchical clustering principle, the similarity of subject words was clustered from large to small. the concept of "climate migration" was first proposed in the report "Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific" released by the Asian Development Bank (Houghton, 1996;Weir et al., 2017). Thus far, the concept of climate migration has not been widely known. ...
Introductlon: Global climate change, which is characterized byclimate warming.hasbecome oneofthe mostprominent risk problemsin socletyat present. Climatemigratlon brings many accompanying problems to the erironment, economy.politics, soclety, and culture. lt ls of great theoretical and practical significance tostudy the internal relatlonship between climate change and population migratlon.Methods: The data were extracted from the Web of trengthen the exchange and cooperation betweenchinese researchers in the held of climate mlgratlon and international sclentitcresearch institutins.
... Relative humidity (RH or Φ) is the ratio of the partial pressure of water vapor (p H20 ) in the mixture to the equilibrium vapor pressure of water (p * H 2 O ) at a given temperature. Relative humidity depends on the temperature and pressure of the system of interest [17][18][19][20][21]. The same amount of water vapor produces a higher relative humidity in cold air than in warm air. ...
... Physical and biological systems have now been discovered in which the mean square displacement of the diffusing substance grows with time in the form < r 2 (t) > ∝ t α , where the value of the exponent divides the processes diffusive in two different regimes: superdiffusion for α > 1 and subdiffusion for α < 1, particular cases of the so-called anomalous diffusion, Figure 12 [17]: the value of the exponent divides the processes diffusive in two different regimes: superdiffusion for α > 1 and subdiffusion for α < 1, particular cases of the so-called anomalous diffusion, Figure 12 [17]: Anomalous diffusion, like normal diffusion, is studied and applied not only in the physical sciences. It is used in various complex systems, such as the internal structure of living cells, the process carried out by various species to search for and find food, etc. ...
Using chaos theory, maximum entropies are calculated for 108 time series, each consisting of 28,463 hourly data of urban meteorology and pollutants. The series were measured with standardized and certified instruments (EPA) in six locations at different heights and in three periods (2010/2013, 2017/2020, and 2019/2022) in a basin geomorphology. Each urban meteorology series corresponds to relative humidity (RH), temperature (T), and wind speed magnitude (WS), and each pollutant series corresponds to 10 µm particulate matter (PM10), 2.5 µm particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon monoxide (CO). These pollutants are in the top three places of presence in the studied geomorphology and in incidence in population diseases. From the calculated entropies, a quotient is constructed between the entropies of each of the first two urban meteorology variables (RH and T) and the sum of maximum entropies of the time series of anthropogenic pollutants, demonstrating the gradual decay in time of the quotient that is dominated by the maximum entropies of the pollutants. The latter leads to a more excited and warm boundary layer, due to thermal transfers, which makes it more unpredictable, increasing its capacity to contain water. It is verified that the diffusion is anomalous with alpha < 1 and that the contamination has a high probability, using a heavy-tailed probability function, of causing extreme events by influencing urban meteorology.
... Climate change, also referred to by the acronym CC, is characterized as any change in climatic conditions that is maintained in the long term and is recognized by most researchers as one of the main ecological challenges our society is facing in the 21st century (Pachauri & Reisinger, 2007;Pachauri el al., 2014). A steady rise in temperature, as the main measurable effect of CC, is projected to persist globally, and significant changes are likely to occur in global hydrological and energy cycles (Pachauri el al., 2014;Noguer et al., 2001), resulting in an intensification of radiation as well as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (Pachauri et al., 2014;Easterling et al., 2000;Bartolini et al., 2008). Europe stands out as a particularly sensitive region to the increase in temperature caused by CC, especially during the warm season, as continued warming is predicted to persist throughout the 21st century on this continent (Giorgi, 2006), where predominant negative impacts are anticipated, including lower harvests, significant variations in agricultural production and a decrease in areas suitable for traditional crops (Olesen & Bindi, 2002). ...
... Also, significant increases in minimum and maximum temperatures are observed during summer and autumn (Cardell et al., 2019), which coincide with the vine growing season, which takes place between April and October in the northern hemisphere. The prevalence of continuous temperature increase is a quantifiable factor of climate change, already generating significant changes in global hydrological and energy cycles (Houghton et al., 2001;Pachauri et al., 2014). These transformations, in turn, have amplified the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts or excessive precipitation (Kostopoulou & Jones, 2005;Zeder & Fischer, 2020). ...
Climate change is one of the most urgent problems of contemporary society and has significant consequences for natural ecosystems and economic sectors, including the wine industry. Through this paper, an assessment of the consequences of climate change on vine is proposed, examining how these climate phenomena have influenced the growth cycles, quality and quantity of grape harvest in different European wine-growing regions. Another purpose of this documentation is to analyze available research and data to identify the contributory role of different factors in climate change. It is also intended to identify and analyze the strategies and solutions adopted by winegrowers to face these climate challenges, including the adaptation of grape varieties, the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices and the use of innovative technologies in viticulture. The results of this review underline the need for a proactive approach and international collaboration to manage climate change in the European wine sector.
... O aquecimento causado por emissões antrópicas, desde o período pré-industrial até o presente, persistirá por séculos e milênios, e continuará a causar mudanças em longo prazo no sistema climático. Os modelos climáticos, então, são usados como uma relevante ferramenta para projeções de futuras mudanças do clima, as quais são apresentadas usando uma ampla gama de cenários de futuras emissões de gases de efeito estufa e aerossóis, sendo um instrumento valioso na tentativa de entender e prever as mudanças climáticas (Ambrizzi et al., 2007;Gordon et al., 2000;Griggs;Noguer, 2002;IPCC, 2018IPCC, , 2021Machado, 2017). Pesquisas com simulação de modelos climáticos apontam que emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) podem provocar alterações nos regimes de ventos, temperaturas, precipitações e nas circulações oceânicas (IPCC, 2018;Machado, 2017;Marengo, 2001;Zennaro et al., 2021). ...
... O aquecimento causado por emissões antrópicas, desde o período pré-industrial até o presente, persistirá por séculos e milênios, e continuará a causar mudanças em longo prazo no sistema climático. Os modelos climáticos, então, são usados como uma relevante ferramenta para projeções de futuras mudanças do clima, as quais são apresentadas usando uma ampla gama de cenários de futuras emissões de gases de efeito estufa e aerossóis, sendo um instrumento valioso na tentativa de entender e prever as mudanças climáticas (Ambrizzi et al., 2007;Gordon et al., 2000;Griggs;Noguer, 2002;IPCC, 2018IPCC, , 2021Machado, 2017). Pesquisas com simulação de modelos climáticos apontam que emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) podem provocar alterações nos regimes de ventos, temperaturas, precipitações e nas circulações oceânicas (IPCC, 2018;Machado, 2017;Marengo, 2001;Zennaro et al., 2021). ...
Nos últimos anos, o aumento das atividades antrópicas tem gerado problemáticas ambientais, sendo o aquecimento global uma das mais proeminentes. Esse fenômeno é, em grande parte, impulsionado pelas emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE). Portanto, o objetivo do presente estudo é analisar as emissões médias de dióxido de carbono (CO ) resultantes da queima de 2 combustíveis fósseis nos municípios brasileiros entre 1999 e 2022, utilizando sensoriamento remoto
e estatística descritiva, de forma a compreender a correlação entre essas emissões e os problemas socioambientais ocorridos durante o período
analisado. Para tanto, os dados de CO foram 2 extraídos da plataforma EDGARv8.0 e interpolados por meio do interpolador Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) através do software ArcGIS 10.8 e, para a análise estatística do banco de dados, utilizou-se o
software BIOSTAT 5.0. Os resultados da análise estatística descritiva revelaram valores mínimos de 2 emissão de CO2 de 0,0183 ton/Km no município de
Jacundá – Pará (PA). Os valores máximos de 2 emissão atingiram 152,4231 ton/Km no município de São Lourenço da Mata – Pernambuco (PE). A análise das emissões médias nos 5.570 municípios brasileiros ao longo da série histórica mostrou
variações significativas, que podem ser correlacionadas com questões socioambientais, como crises econômicas, pandemias e o advento de
tecnologias mais eficientes. Assim, as técnicas empregadas mostraram-se eficazes na análise das emissões médias municipais de CO originadas da 2
queima de combustíveis fósseis, pois permitiram relacionar as emissões com questões socioambientais e têm o potencial de contribuir para a compreensão das mudanças climáticas, bem como para a formulação de políticas públicas.
... Although 14 C is created in the upper atmosphere, it is spread throughout all the environmental compartments (atmosphere, land, and water). The distribution or inventory of 14 C in these compartments is summarized in Table 2, along with the corresponding references [33,34]. The oceans are the world's largest carbon reservoir which contains 38,000 Pg-C (10 15 g C), followed by terrestrial environment and atmosphere which contains about 2200 and 730 Pg-C respectively [34]. ...
... The distribution or inventory of 14 C in these compartments is summarized in Table 2, along with the corresponding references [33,34]. The oceans are the world's largest carbon reservoir which contains 38,000 Pg-C (10 15 g C), followed by terrestrial environment and atmosphere which contains about 2200 and 730 Pg-C respectively [34]. Because the total amount of carbon and 14 C in the atmosphere affects how 14 C is integrated into dose pathways to human and non-human biota, understanding about the global 14 C inventory is essential. ...
Radiocarbon is a radionuclide of considerable interest due to its long half-life and high environmental mobility. Since carbon is the biological backbone of the biosphere, radiocarbon can incorporate very quickly into the natural carbon cycle. Considering the importance of the radionuclide, articles on radiocarbon research belonging to various fields: age dating, soil dynamics, environmental mobility, metrology, nuclear research, and radiological impact were reviewed to provide an overview about the radiocarbon starting from its origin to management to reduce the radiological hazard. The review also highlighted less explored research areas such as: (a) impact of seasonal variation on environmental dynamics of 14C, (b) root uptake of 14C or transfer from contaminated soil to vegetation, (c) data of model parameters for radiological environmental impact assessment, (d) impact of climate change on C dynamics in the environment and (e) development of technologies for 14C management in nuclear waste, which needs to be more explored in future research. Furthermore, the review shows that environmental 14C dynamics, transport modelling, and radiological impact assessment modelling studies are less explored in non-temperate regions and need more attention in future research.
... There is now growing evidence that the Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate due to anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation, urbanization, population growth, industrialization, gas release and greenhouse effect (Monday, 2019). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rapport projects an increase of 1.5 to 5.8 ℃ in global average temperature by 2100 due to greenhouse gas emissions (Houghton et al., 2001). ...
... Even if the richest countries are disproportionately responsible for greenhouse gas emissions than developing countries, the consequences of climate change are more serious in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, developing countries are those that adapt the least, due to limited access to climate information, financial and human resources, as well as past and ongoing armed conflicts (Houghton et al., 2001). It is estimated that more than 30 million people in sub-Saharan Africa will fall into poverty if no substantial climate and development action is taken by 2050 (Schleussner et al., 2016). ...
Climate change is causing serious impacts, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates could increase by 2050 if climate and development measures are not taken. The health consequences are diverse and include transmissible and non-transmissible diseases. The objective of this study is to analyze the strategies implemented in health facilities in the Greater Lomé health region to cope with the impacts of climate change. The survey was carried out in 23 health facilities in 2022. It was a descriptive cross-sectional study which was carried out from July to September 2022. Qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. Non-probability sampling method and purposive choice technique were used. Four techniques made it possible to collect the data, namely documentary analysis, survey, interview and observation. The collected data were processed with Excel software and exported to SPSS for analysis. In total, 112 people were surveyed. According to the results, 52.68% of health facilities did not implement adaptation strategies, 47.32% used adaptive strategies depending on to their means. Strategies exist but at low percentages due to limited technical and financial resources and the insufficiency of innovative policies. These strategies need to be supported in order to make them more effective. The study provides a basis for adopting innovative strategies and encouraging financing for adaptation actions.
... The major factors known to contribute to CC include Volcanic Eruption Forcing, Solar Radiation Forcing and Anthropogenic Forcing (Crowley, 2000). Nevertheless, the recent change in climate has been said to be mostly driven by human activities through an increase in the amount of Greenhouse 38 gases in the atmosphere (Houghton, 1996;Wigley, 2007). The major culprit in the increase of the global temperature, the greenhouse gases, include Carbon-dioxide (CO2), Ozone (O3), Water Vapor (H2O(g)), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N₂O). ...
... The wind system in GoG consists mostly of south-east trade winds, which is season dependent having a monthly average wind speed of about 5 m/s in the boreal summer. This weak but steady wind becomes even weaker during boreal winter, having values of approximately half their summer equivalence (Brink and Robinson, 2005;Houghton, 1996). Studies have shown that in the central and equatorial Atlantic region in which Gulf of Guinea belongs, the effect of wind variation is more noticeable, especially when the ITCZ extends to the equator 50 during the boreal winter. ...
The focus of this study is the assessment of the past wave conditions in the Gulf of Guinea region of the West African coast to get a better understanding of the trends the waves have been following over the past four decades. The third-generation spectral wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3), was used to hindcast the wave climate between 1st January, 1980 – 31st December, 2019, which provided data on significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tm), mean wave direction and mean wind speed (U10). Validation results confirmed that WW3 is an efficient model for simulating wave condition as it agrees well with observation and other datasets like ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation). The trend analyses done showed that the Hs with average values of 1.0836 m, 0.9312 m and 1.1913 m on annual, winter and summer bases increased at rates of 2.6 x 10-3 m, 1.6 x 10-3 m and 3.4 x 10-3 m per year, respectively. For Tm, average values of 5.3897 s, 5.3876 s and 5.3911 s for annual, winter and summer changed at rates of 6.1353 x 10-4 s, -1.7 x 10-3 s and 2.3 x 10-3 s per year, respectively. Mean values of 4.7001 m/s. 4.2344 m/s and 5.0292 m/s were estimated for U10 on annual, winter and summer bases increasing at rates of 3.5 x 10-3 m/s, 4.2 x 10-3 m/s and 3.1 x 10-3 m/s per year, respectively. The wave direction is also observed to be predominantly S-SW mostly originating from the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The statistical projections done for various return period showed that this increase will continue into the future with higher risks to coastal and offshore structures by the end of the century in 2100.
... Although these methodologies are not those considered best practice today, these studies, in general, measured negative impacts on bivalve molluscs [22], cleavage in echinoids (Sphaerechinus granularis [21]; Paracentrrotus lividus [19,20]), morphological development in bivalve molluscs (Saccostrea glomerata [18]) and increased mortality, decreased growth and skeletal malformations in bivalve molluscs (Crassostrea virginica and Mercenaria mercenaria [17]). Most recent studies, using best practise methodologies, however, manipulate pH either by directly aerating seawater with CO 2 , or saturating seawater with CO 2 prior to adding to the culture media [27] at CO 2 levels predicted for the end of the century and beyond [1,[28][29][30]. ...
Predicting the impact of warming and acidifying on oceans on the early development life history stages of invertebrates although difficult, is essential in order to anticipate the severity and consequences of future climate change. This review summarises the current literature and meta-analyses on the early life-history stages of invertebrates including fertilisation, larval development and the implications for dispersal and settlement of populations. Although fertilisation appears robust to near future predictions of ocean acidification, larval development is much more vulnerable and across invertebrate groups, evidence indicates that the impacts may be severe. This is especially for those many marine organisms which start to calcify in their larval and/or juvenile stages. Species-specificity and variability in responses and current gaps in the literature are highlighted, including the need for studies to investigate the total effects of climate change including the synergistic impact of temperature, and the need for long-term multigenerational experiments to determine whether vulnerable invertebrate species have the capacity to adapt to elevations in atmospheric CO2 over the next century.
... Myers et al. 2021; US Global Change Research Program 2017, 1). This consensus includes international organizations like the United Nations, whose members have diverse ideological views and governmental systems(Houghton et al. 2001;Australian Academy of Sciences et al. 2001;Lee et al. 2023). ...
... Several methods calculate one single issue, like IPCC (IPCC was developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It contains the climate change factors of IPCC) (Houghton et al. 2001) and CED (The Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) method was created by PRé Consultants based on data published by ecoinvents for raw materials available in the SimaPro database) (Frischknecht et al. 2007). ...
The life cycle assessment (LCA) is a powerful tool for evaluating environmental impacts and costs. In this study, LCA was applied to steel production, specifically focusing on the electric arc furnace (EAF) and the MIDREX direct reduction of iron ore. The functional unit considered is one tonne of molten steel extracted from the EAF. EAF inputs mainly consist of sponge iron with a 90:10 proportion of sponge iron to scrap. The study employs the ReCiPe (H) 2016 V1.1 method for LCA, and environmental cost calculations utilize the Environmental Prices method. The total environmental costs, normalized midpoint impacts, and normalized endpoint impacts amount to 462.72 euros, 8.11 pt, and 0.13 pt, respectively. The analysis of steel production identifies three principal stages: sponge iron consumption, electricity consumption, and other inputs and outputs associated with steel production. Notably, electricity consumption and sponge iron usage account for approximately 70% and 75% of the impacts on midpoints and endpoints, respectively, as well as 75% of the total environmental costs. Making specific choices—such as using solar power instead of traditional gas-based electricity and scrap instead of sponge iron—can effectively enhance the sustainability of the steel making process. The scenario VI, when compared to other scenarios, results in the following reductions: midpoint impacts, 5.03 pt; endpoint impacts, 0.04 pt; and environmental costs, 167.69 euros. Regarding the ReCiPe method, it was assessed from various perspectives. The egalitarian perspective consistently demonstrated the highest value at the endpoint level, followed by the hierarchist and individualist viewpoints.
... Salmonids require cool temperatures, generally below 20 • C [3]. Thermal refugia as patches of relatively cooler water provide fish an opportunity to behaviorally thermoregulate and maximize energy efficiency [4]. Additionally, climate change is expected to increase air temperature maxima [5]. Consequently, stream temperature models illustrate warmer conditions sensitive to both timing and magnitude of atmospheric temperature [6]. ...
Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.
... The selection of these impact categories is based on the direct influence that the analyzed systems have on them. For instance, energy consumption in the recycling process is associated with the use of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, which significantly contribute to GWP [54]. Similarly, for the same impact category, methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from landfilling are relevant [27,55]. ...
Due to the increasing concern about the negative impact of the modern food system and the need to design foods to improve their healthiness and sustainability, in the current study, a fortified cheesecake was developed by using juice, peels, and pomace from prickly pears, which are fruit by-products rich in active compounds. After proper dehydration and being ground to produce a fine powder, some traditional ingredients were substituted with fruit juice and by-products. The water content loss during dehydration and the energy consumed per g of dehydrated by-product were assessed using a proper mathematical approach. A sensory evaluation was carried out using a panel test, thus verifying that the new dessert made with prickly pears was comparable to the traditional one; both recorded high scores of acceptability (sensory score ranged between 8 and 9). The centesimal composition of the two cheesecakes also demonstrated that the ingredient substitution did not affect the energetic value of the final product (290 vs. 248 kcal/100 g); on the contrary, it promoted an increase in carbohydrates (27.38 vs. 26.26 g/100 g), lipids (16.98 vs. 12.94 g/100 g), and total fibers (5.7 vs. 4.2 g/100 g). To demonstrate that the recycling of by-products from prickly pears could represent an advantage from an environmental point of view, a full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was carried out. In relation to this, three environmental impact categories, such as Global Warming Potential, Acidification and Eutrophication, which are associated with three different biowaste treatment options—such as composting, landfilling, and recycling—were assessed. The results from the LCA highlighted that recycling always emerged as the most sustainable biowaste management option. For all environmental impact categories analyzed, recycling resulted in an overall environmental saving (−7.63 kgCO2eq/kg biowaste; −0.116 kgSO2eq/kg biowaste; and −0.055 kgPO4³⁻eq/kg biowaste). In addition, the comparison between the traditional cheesecake and the fortified one, in terms of impacts per kg of cheesecake, demonstrated that replacing food items with recycled biowaste may result in a general reduction in emissions and resources. Therefore, this case study represents a valid example of zero-waste production, offering a concrete suggestion as to how processed foods can be redesigned to make them healthier from a more sustainable perspective.
... Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the main greenhouse gas associated with soil under grassland agriculture management (Smith et al. 2012). It is a major contributor to anthropogenic warming (Houghton and Ding 2001), with a global warming potential 298 times that of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (IPCC 2007). Global emissions of N 2 O from grazed grassland with manure left on the pasture and application of manure to crops was 20%, with the application of inorganic fertilisers accounting for 13% of global emissions (FAO 2020). ...
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) defines soil health as the continued capacity of soil to function as a vital living ecosystem that sustains plants, animals, and humans, and healthy soil gives us clean air and water. Nitrogen is indispensable to support life on earth, including for food production, but it also causes environmental problems such as global warming and groundwater pollution. This book brings together novel aspects of soil nitrogen research that solve these problems, with a particular focus on soil health in intensive agricultural systems. The two main sections are: 1) Monitoring and understanding of soil nitrogen transformations to maintain soil health, and 2) Soil nitrogen management for soil health. Included topics are regulation of key nitrogen loads and processes such as nitrous oxide emissions, nitrate leaching, ammonia volatilization, denitrification, nitrogen fixation, nitrification, mineralization, their relationships with the soil microbial biomass, and impact of soil management practices for enhanced soil health and sustainability. This book includes selected papers presented at the symposium Nitrogen Cycling and Soil Health at the 2022 World Congress of Soil Science, which took place in Glasgow, U.K.
... Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors that limit the distribution of plant species (Saxe et al., 2001). The global surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.6°C since the late 19th century and is estimated to increase by 1·4-5·8 °C by the end of this century (Houghton et al., 2001). These changes can affect plant growth and reproduction with biodiversity also being potentially influenced by the changes in the extremes of climatic parameters (GBSC, 2007). ...
The development of the male gametophyte plays a crucial role in the life cycle of plants. In this study, the effects of various temperatures and a one-month desiccation period were investigated on the ability of pollen to germinate. Pollen from six subtropical and tropical angiosperm species was collected from the botanical garden in Vienna and germinated in liquid media. The media was optimized to be suitable for all species and a screening method was developed. The obtained data of the germination rates suggested that the temperature plays a significant role during pollen germination. Germinating pollen of some plants coped better with higher temperatures, while other plants did germinate better at lower temperatures. Results also revealed that pollen of Cyrtandra sp. did not germinate at all after a one-month desiccation period, while plants such as Tillandsia argentina and Saurauia subspinosa still displayed good germination percentages. The study reveals that temperature plays a crucial role in the ability of pollen to germinate and that pollen of some species are more resilient towards extreme temperatures and exposure to dry environments. The results also showed that pollen of five species was still viable after dry storage, indicating that pollen may also be stored for breeding purposes without sophisticated methods.
... Global temperature rises have triggered northward shifts in species distributions, impacting plankton populations and causing poleward migrations in oceanic climates [7,8]. Consequently, plankton movement patterns are undergoing noticeable changes [9][10][11][12][13]. Environmental scientists and climate experts are closely monitoring these changes, aiming to slow phytoplankton migration over the next century. ...
In this work, we develop and analyze a novel fractional-order framework to investigate the interactions among oxygen, phytoplankton, and zooplankton under changing climatic conditions. Unlike standard integer-order formulations, our model incorporates a Proportional–Caputo (PC) fractional derivative, allowing the system dynamics to capture non-local influences and memory effects over time. Initially, we rigorously verify that a unique solution exists by suitable fixed-point theorems, demonstrating that the proposed fractional system is both well-defined and robust. We then derive stability criteria to ensure Ulam–Hyers stability (UHS), confirming that small perturbations in initial states lead to bounded variations in long-term behavior. Additionally, we explore extended UHS to assess sensitivity against time-varying parameters. Numerical simulations illustrate the role of fractional-order parameters in shaping oxygen availability and plankton populations, highlighting critical shifts in system trajectories as the order of differentiation approaches unity.
... The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007(IPCC , 2013 pointed out that the increasing trend of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere would cause fluctuations in the amount of temperature and precipitation in most regions of the world, within and between years. Houghton (2012) and Sellers and McGuffie (2012) stressed that many regions of the world have experienced drought and flood events as a result of global warming. Senatore et al. (2011) reported that summer temperatures were expected to increase in southern and central Europe and that it was likely that summer temperatures would increase significantly in the Mediterranean region. ...
This study aimed to shed light on the extent to which the changing climate would affect the fire risk in forests in Turkey. For this purpose, statistical approaches and indices were applied to some climate parameters in 39 provinces with forest presence. A statistically significant increasing trend according to Şen approaches, named ITA and IPTA, was detected in the temperature datasets of almost all provinces between May and October, which was referred to as the “forest fire period” in Turkey. The annual Lang index showed that there was a tendency towards desertification and aridification in the provinces. The monthly Lang index also pointed out semi-arid and arid climates from May to September in almost all provinces. The Ångström index classifying fire risk showed the probability of fire increasing between June and September for many provinces. These findings draw attention to the impact of climate change on possible forest fires in Turkey.
... El cambio en el clima puede afectar las cargas de patógenos en los individuos huéspedes al alterar la inmunocompetencia (Altizer et al. 2006) o las densidades de especies de las comunidades de vectores pueden verse afectadas por los cambios en el clima (Caminade et al. 2012). El Panel sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC) proyecta un aumento en la temperatura promedio global entre 1.4 ° C y 5.8 °C para 2100 con eventos climáticos extremos (Griggs & Noguer, 2002). En este contexto, Brunkard, Cifuentes & Rothenberg (2008) realizó un estudio en Matamoros, México, y llegó a la conclusión de que los factores climáticos desempeñan un papel importante en la transmisión del dengue; los hallazgos demostraron que la incidencia de casos de dengue aumentó en un 1,4%, 2,6% y 19,4% cuando la precipitación (10 mm), temperatura superficial del mar (1 °C), temperatura del mar (efecto El niño 3.4), respectivamente. ...
El presente diagnóstico se realizó en la presa Caballeros del municipio de Victoria, Tamaulipas, México, en el que se muestra la prospectiva del estatus sanitario del agua, la situación real de la presencia de contaminantes tales como metales pesados, parámetros fisicoquímicos y coliformes totales y fecales; esto con la finalidad de determinar un perfil sanitario del recurso hídrico. Así como determinar el impacto que se está generando en la presa y de esta forma establecer las bases para evaluar la factibilidad del uso del recurso para diversas actividades como: uso doméstico, agrícola, pecuario y acuícola. El estudio se realizó durante un periodo de 6 meses, en los cuales se monitorearon 10 sitios a lo largo de la presa; cada mes se recolectaron muestras de agua para su análisis. Las técnicas utilizadas fueron fotometría y espectrofotometría de absorción atómica. Los datos encontrados se contrastaron con los límites permisibles de calidad de agua y las normas oficiales mexicanas, los resultados muestran que la calidad del agua del embalse presenta condiciones favorables para los usos agrícola y ganadero, así mismo existe oportunidad de establecer explotaciones piscícolas, ya que cumple con las características idóneas para este fin.
... ( ) is influenced by various factors, including the ability of a gas to absorb infrared radiation, the chosen time period for assessment (integration period), and the atmospheric lifetime of the gas in the atmosphere as expressed by (Griggs & Noguer, 2002): ...
This dissertation utilizes Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) to accurately measure the Radiative Efficiency (RE) values of both well-studied and novel emerging Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), and monitors the column-averaged abundance of trace GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere.
The basic theory covers the FTIR instrument, its working principle, and analytical methodologies, as well as the theory behind gas quantification analysis using FTIR. For accurate gas quantification, it is essential to obtain detailed information on the absorption lines of gases that interact with infrared radiation. This dissertation investigates the broadening behavior of gas absorption lines under various environmental conditions, including temperature, pressure, and gas composition. To model the gas absorption lines, absorption peaks derived from the Voigt profile are used. Inverse modeling is then applied by comparing the measured absorption peaks with the modeled ones to quantify the gas concentrations. The dissertation is structured into two main sections: one focusing on RE and the other on the accurate measurement of the column-averaged abundance of trace GHGs in the atmosphere.
The first section introduces the methodology for accurately measure the RE values of GHGs using FTIR. It explains the greenhouse effect induced by GHGs and discuss the concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP), a critical metric in climate change research for quantifying the warming effect of different GHGs. GWP is defined relative to the warming effect of 1 kg of CO2 and serves as an essential parameter for calculating the atmospheric GHG inventories. While the GWP of emerging GHGs is yet to be established, RE is a key factor in determining their GWP. This dissertation presents accurate measurement of RE and its associated uncertainties for both the well-studied and emerging GHGs, accounting for key influencing parameters such as temperature, pressure, Optical Path Length (OPL), and GHG concentration. A novel method for evaluating the uncertainty of RE values is introduced and validated through comparison with existing literature data. The RE of the well-studied GHGs measured in this dissertation is 0.085 ± 0.002 W m-2 ppb-1 for CF4, 0.573 ± 0.016 W m-2 ppb-1 for SF6, and 0.195 ± 0.008 W m-2 ppb-1 for NF3 which are in good agreement with previously reported data. While the RE of the novel emerging GHGs is 0.201 ± 0.008 W m-2 ppb-1 for (CF3)2CFCN (commercially known as Novec-4710), 0.328 ± 0.013 W m-2 ppb-1 for CF3OCFCF2 (PMVE), and 0.544 ± 0.022 W m-2 ppb-1 for CF3OCF2CF3 (PFMEE).
In the second section, the method for monitoring the column-averaged abundance of trace GHGs (XGas) using infrared radiation absorption by GHGs is discussed. The approach for precisely measuring the vertical column-averaged abundance of trace GHGs such as XCO2, XH2O, XCH4, and XCO in the atmosphere using FTIR is presented. The mobile FTIR developed by the COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON) was used for this study to gather the measurements. Calibration of the mobile FTIR and continuous measurements across various locations were conducted, and discrepancies in the data were investigated through comparisons with field measurements from different instruments. Geographic variations in GHG concentrations revealed periodic changes. For XCO2, the average concentrations observed in 2023-2024 were 417.68 ppmv in fall 2023, 422.08 ppmv in winter 2023, 426.22 ppmv in spring 2024, and 425.44 ppmv in summer 2024. These results suggest an ongoing trend of rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.
This study offers valuable insights into the accurate quantification and monitoring of GHGs, contributing to the improvement of climate models and the development of more effective environmental policies for climate change mitigation.
Key words: climate change, greenhouse gas, FTIR, radiative efficiency, global measurement network.
... The hydrology in high-terrain environments is largely governed by the cryosphere, where snow and ice temporarily retain water before gradually releasing it as meltwater [3]. However, this delicate balance faces increasing threats due to global warming, which is predicted to alter runoff patterns, shift precipitation distribution, and intensify extreme hydrological events [4][5][6]. Despite the importance of water resources derived from snow and ice, maintaining hydrological stability and accurately quantifying their contributions to streamflow remains challenging. ...
... About this matter, there is a definite differentiation between natural climatic occurrences and those that are caused by the release of greenhouse gases, such as nitrogen oxide, carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and methane, which are a result of human activities and the excessive utilization of fossil fuels in transportation and industry [4]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC [9], coastal communities will experience significant impacts as a result of rising sea levels. Sea levels were generally stable for at least three thousand years. ...
Concerning global warming, sea level rise is one of the most critical problems. Therefore, it is necessary to find reliable projections for estimating coastal flooding to help manage coastlines more effectively, as the future implications of climate change are uncertain. So, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the rise in sea level poses a significant problem in many coastal areas; hence, studying flooding of low-lying lands along coasts has become a crucial issue and a matter of urgency for countries such as Egypt, which is highly vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise (SLR), raising the temperature and reducing precipitation due to climatic changes. According to IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Sea levels will increase by 2100, 78 cm, and up to 100 cm by the end of this century. However, their magnitude remains indefinite. This study establishes limits on the level of uncertainty in sea-level rise variability. The uncertainty is derived from the analysis of future projections using twenty-eight (28) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) on an annual basis. This study focuses specifically on the coastal zones along the Egyptian Red Sea, from Suez to Hurghada. Based on AR5, four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were considered until 2100. It was found that there are ranges of possible rises in sea level concerning some models projecting very few centimeters while others go beyond a meter. Using optimal GCM ensembles significantly reduces the uncertainty about predicted values on SLR. Moreover, these results indicate that under each scenario, RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5, the sea level will increase by 60.5 cm, 71 cm, 77 cm, and 104 cm, respectively.
... Furthermore, EFA exhibits relatively elevated Radiative Efficiency (RE) ( Table 4 ) when compared to its counterparts commonly used in industrial applications and recognized as greenhouse gases. For instance, the RE (expressed in W/(m 2 •ppbv)) of CF 3 OCH 3 is 0.19 according to Bravo et al. (2011) , while CF 3 CH 2 OCF 2 CHF 2 (HFE-347pcf2g) has a RE of 0.25 as reported by Tokuhashi et al. (1999) , and CH 3 CCl 2 F (HCFC-141b) possesses an RE of 0.14 based on Houghton et al. (2001) . This disparity is expected because EFA exhibits longer atmospheric residence times than ETB or BFA (refer to Table 4 ). ...
CFC replacements sinks in situ FTIR SAR Acidification potentials Greenhouse gases a b s t r a c t Kinetics of the gas-phase reactions of •OH radicals with a series of fluoroesters were studied for the first time at 298 ± 3 K and atmospheric pressure. Relative rate coefficients were determined by in situ FTIR spectroscopy in nitrogen and GC-FID in air to monitor the decay of reactants and references. The following coefficient values (in 10 −12 cm 3 /(molecule•sec)) were obtained for ethyl fluoroacetate (EFA), ethyl 4,4,4-trifluorobutyrate (ETB), and butyl flu-oroacetate (BFA), respectively: k 1 (EFA + OH) = 1.15 ± 0.25 by FTIR and 1.34 ± 0.23 by GC-FID; k 2 (ETB + OH) = 1.61 ± 0.36 by FTIR and 2.02 ± 0.30 by GC-FID; k 3 (BFA + OH) = 2.24 ± 0.37 by FTIR. Reactivity trends were developed and correlated with the number of CH 3 and F sub-stituents in the fluoroester, and structure-activity relationships (SARs) calculations were performed. In addition, the tropospheric lifetimes of EFA, ETB, and BFA upon degradation by OH radicals were calculated to be 9, 6, and 5 days, respectively, indicating that these fluori-nated compounds could have a possible regional effect from the emission source. Relatively small photochemical ozone creation potentials of 9, 7, and 19 were estimated for EFA, ETB, and BFA, respectively. The Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for EFA, ETB, and BFA were calculated for different time horizons. For a 20-year time horizon, the GWPs were 1.393, 0.063, and 0.062, respectively. In the case of a 100-year time horizon, the GWPs were 0.379, 0.017, and 0.017, and for a 500-year time horizon, the GWPs were 0.108, 0.005, and 0.005 for EFA, ETB, and BFA.
... The deteriorating environmental circumstances have massively increased concern about climate change and global warming, highlighting the connection between expanding energy use, pollution, and economic growth. Even though global warming is caused by anthropogenic gas emissions, the repercussions vary by country due to socioeconomic and environmental factors, which were found the main cause of global warming climate instability (Houghton, 1996). The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's most recent accord (UNFCCC, 2017) digital Conference in Glasgow 2021, known as Paris Agreement drew unprecedented contribution from world leaders to achieve consensus by 2020-2030 on legally requisite greenhouse gas emission reductions of methane up to 30% and other gases up to 50% to safeguard the environment for both the present and future generations by taking action that might greatly increase the economic sustainability (Michaelowa, 2021). ...
... However, the need for and usage of energy are constantly growing due to fast industrialization and urbanization, which results in the consumption of fossil fuels and the emission of greenhouse gases. Thus, sequestering CO 2 becomes one of the most important procedures to keep the global temperature within acceptable bounds while balancing the global emission budget (Griggs et al., 2002). In this regard, the IPCC suggested that to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions must be down to 45 percent by 2030 from 2010 levels across all sectors (Noguer et al., 2001). ...
The three-tiered carbon capture, transport, and storage process is known as Carbon Capture
and Storage (CCS). The storage of CO2 must be in a potential storage site where it is either
locked away or converted into a valuable product. Geological Carbon Storage (GCS) is a strong
contender for the design of CO2 storage that operates without maintenance or interference.
The GCS is achieved through sequestering CO2 in unmineable coal beds, depleted hydrocarbon
reserves, deep saline aquifers, or mineral carbonation. Basalt is a volcanic rock composed of
silicates of metals such as aluminum, iron, and calcium, which can combine with CO
2 to form
mineral carbonates. Saline aquifers and their salty character reserve CO2 and do not provide
potable water. They could act as one of the most outstanding storage sites since they have a
large potential for CO2 storage and are also widely distributed geographically. Unmineable coal
seams are a very appealing and potentially economical form of CO2 storage. Another possible
CO
2 storage place is depleting oil and natural gas deposits. In this case, CO2 is injected into
depleted hydrocarbon reserves to boost hydrocarbon recovery. The basic geological storage
site requires three major components to work as a CO2 storage site, i.e., the reservoir, the seal,
and the trap. With its vast geological formations, India might become the prime location for
CO
2 storage sites around the globe. In the context of sedimentary basins, India has 3.14 million
km2 of sedimentary deposits with estimated potential ranging from 500-1000 GT. The deep
saline aquifer formations have the highest potential of 300-400 BT, followed by the Deccan
trap basaltic rocks with 200-400 BT, un-mineable coal seams with <“5 BT, and depleted
hydrocarbon reservoirs with 5-10 BT. The following 10-15 years would be crucial for India to
develop technology for deploying large-scale CCS projects. This article illustrates the different
CO
2 storage potentials in the Indian peninsula. This also reviews the different geographical,
geochemical & geological characteristics and technical challenges for evaluating carbon storage
in Indian geological formations.
Keywords: Geological Carbon Storage (GCS), Mineral carbonates, Carbon Capture and Storage
(CCS)
... m 2 , a value comparable to the radiative forcing of N₂O at 0.21[0.18~0.24]W/m 2 , and second only to that of CO₂ at 25 2.16[1.90~2.41]W/m 2 , CH₄ at 0.54[0.43~0.65]W/m 2 , and O₃ at 0.47[0.24~0.71]W/m 2 . Despite significant advances, the estimated has undergone substantial revisions across successive IPCC reports, and its uncertainty has not notably decreased (Houghton, 1996; Houghton, 2001; Solomon, 2007; Stocker, 2014;Forster et al., 2021). Furthermore, significant discrepancies exist between estimates derived from surface temperature changes and those from model simulations Hansen et al., 2023), suggesting that the cooling effect of aerosols may be underestimated, potentially 30 due to the omission of key factors in current models. ...
The IPCC's assessment report shows that the radiative forcing of aerosol-radiation interactions still involves significant uncertainty. The commonly used method for factor uncertainty estimation is the One-at-A-Time (OAT) method which evaluates factor sensitivity by controlling the change in a single variable while keeping others constant. The outcomes from the OAT method require high data quality to ensure accuracy, and the results are only valid near the selected constant. This study proposes a new method called Constrained Parameter (CP) to quantify the uncertainty contribution of factors in a multi-factor system. This method constrains the uncertainty of a single factor and evaluates its sensitivity by analyzing how this change affects output uncertainty. The most significant advantage of the CP method is that it can be applied to any data distribution, and its results can reflect the overall data characteristics. By comparing the results calculated by the CP method and the OAT method, the proportion of factor interactions in the factor uncertainty contributions can be obtained. As an application of the CP method, it is used to perform a detailed analysis of aerosol-radiation interaction factors’ uncertainty contributions. The top 3 most sensitive factors are the complex refractive index of aerosol shell materials, light-absorbing carbon parameters, and Mie theory parameters. Due to their high sensitivity and low observational precision, these factors represent significant sources of uncertainty in aerosol-radiation interactions. These factors need to be prioritized for operational observation programs and model parameter inputs.
... SDG (15) -Life on land: Preventing and combating phenomena associated with droughts and dry spells, such as desertification and land degradation in the BHRP, helps to preserve and sustainably recover the areas most affected by these events. (Cunha, 1997b(Cunha, , 1997aMaia;Nogueira Maia, 2010) (Houghton et al., 1995(Houghton et al., , 2001IPCC, 1992 (Collins et al., 2013;Lecocq et al., 2022;Lee et al., 2021). ...
As previsões espaciais e temporais dos processos que ocorrem no ciclo hidrológico para projetar cenários de secas moderadas, severas e extremas, representam um desafio importante no planejamento, na gestão e no monitoramento dos recursos hídricos. A fim de mitigar os possíveis impactos das secas sobre o ambiente natural, a sociedade civil e a biodiversidade, resultantes das mudanças climáticas e do aquecimento global, os métodos de aprendizado de máquina ou Machine Learning (ML), podem apoiar essa tarefa combinando modelos de análise espacial e temporal de futuros episódios de seca. Esta dissertação investigou a modelagem e a previsão hidrológica de fenômenos hidrometeorológicos tais como secas e estiagens, na Bacia do Rio Paranapanema (BHRP) para o período de 2023-2025. A BHRP é uma região que fornece recursos hidrológicos, energéticos e agrícolas, localizada no sudeste do Brasil, que tem sofrido vários problemas relacionados ao déficit e ao estresse hídrico, bem como secas e estiagens nos últimos 10 anos. Por essas razões, tecnologias geoespaciais, como sensoriamento remoto e Sistemas de Informações Geográficas (SIG), foram aplicadas para gerar séries temporais de precipitação e Evapotranspiração Potencial (ETP) entre 2001 e o início de 2023 para um total de 22 Unidades de Planejamento Hidrológico (UPHs) na BHRP. Posteriormente, uma Rede Neural Autorregressiva (NNAR) foi usada para prever as medias mensais de precipitação e ETP para as UPHs entre 2023 e 2025, encontrando possíveis períodos de déficit hídrico nas regiões central e norte da BHRP para os meses de maio, junho, julho e agosto de 2024 e parte de 2025. Da mesma forma, foi calculado o Índice Padronizado de Precipitação e Evapotranspiração (SPEI) em escalas trimestrais e semestrais, com base na previsão desenvolvida pela rede NNAR nas UPHs, evidenciando possíveis impactos nos setores agrícola, energético e social, como resultado de prováveis períodos prolongados de secas e estiagens na BHRP. Por fim, foi possível concluir um baixo ajuste na precisão da rede NNAR (erros entre 60 e 100 milímetros), na fase de prognóstico, o que não garante a possível ocorrência de secas na BHRP, mas fornece um diagnóstico preliminar das mesmas com vistas a um adequado monitoramento e controle dos recursos hídricos.
... This difference can be attributed in part to changing public perceptions about climate change over time. As early as 2001, the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and resulting from human activity was legitimized by the IPCC assessment reports [19]. A 2003 national study on climate change risk perceptions, however, revealed that while most Americans demonstrate awareness of climate change, 68% considered it only a moderate risk issue more likely to impact areas far from the United States [31]. ...
Although climate change and energy are intricately linked, their explicit connection is not always prominent in public discourse and the media. Disruptive extreme weather events, including hurricanes, focus public attention in new and different ways, offering a unique window of opportunity to analyze how a focusing event influences public discourse. Media coverage of extreme weather events simultaneously shapes and reflects public discourse on climate issues. Here we analyze climate and energy newspaper coverage of Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012) using topic models, mathematical techniques used to discover abstract topics within a set of documents. Our results demonstrate that post-Katrina media coverage does not contain a climate change topic, and the energy topic is limited to discussion of energy prices, markets, and the economy with almost no explicit linkages made between energy and climate change. In contrast, post-Sandy media coverage does contain a prominent climate change topic, a distinct energy topic, as well as integrated representation of climate change and energy, indicating a shift in climate and energy reporting between Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy.
... Rumen fermentation produces a variety of beneficial products, including methane. Cattle alone contribute 15-20% of the global methane production every year (6). Methane is the most abundant hydrogen sink synthesized by methanogens in the rumen. ...
Ruminant animals naturally emit methane gas owing to anaerobic microbial fermentation in the rumen, and these gases are considered major contributors to global warming. Scientists worldwide are attempting to minimize methane emissions from ruminant animals. Some of these attempts include the manipulation of rumen microbes using antibiotics, synthetic chemicals, dietary interventions, probiotics, propionate enhancers, stimulation of acetogens, manipulation of rumination time, vaccination, and genetic selection of animals that produce low methane (CH4). The majority of synthetic additives are harmful to both beneficial rumen microbes and the host or only temporarily affect methanogenesis. Phytogenic feed additives (PFAs) have recently emerged as the best alternatives to antibiotics and synthetic chemicals because of growing public concerns regarding drug resistance and the negative impacts of antibiotics and synthetic chemicals on humans, livestock, and the environment. These additives reduce methane production and improve the volatile fatty acid profile. In this review, we provide an overview of PFA sources and how their bioactive components affect the rumen microbiome to reduce methane emissions. Additionally, we highlight the mechanisms of action of PFAs as a whole, as well as some of their bioactive components. We also review some selected trees, herbs, shrubs, and forages and their roles in reducing methane emissions.
... Проте порівнювати вагові значення кількості викинутих ПГ не зовсім вірно, оскільки СН4 та N2O мають різні потенціали глобального потепління (ПГП). ПГП являє собою показник для оцінки відносного вкладу глобального потепління внаслідок атмосферного викиду 1 кг конкретного ПГ в порівнянні з викидом 1 кг вуглекислого газу (Houghton et al, 2001). Якщо метан поглинає теплове випромінювання більш ніж в 20 разів інтенсивніше ніж СО2, то закис азоту -майже в 300 разів інтенсивніше, що робить його в рази небезпечнішим в питаннях глобального потепління. ...
According to numerous expert assessments by international organizations and specialists, animal husbandry makes a significant negative contribution to global climate change due to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), which are formed at different stages of livestock production as a result of various chemical and biological processes in the body of animals and in livestock waste. The domestic animal husbandry is developing mainly due to the intensification of production in the industry, but traditional farming methods as well as small-scale production in the individual sector also take place. Since the use of various technologies in animal husbandry has different effects on the level of environmental pollution and GHG emissions, the aim of the research was to study the differences in the intensity of GHG gas formation by one animal reared with individual features of animal rearing technologies and business activities. The intensity of gas formation and emission of CH4 and N2O in typical farms for pork production and milk production by one animal reared was determined, analyzed and substantiated. A significant variation in this indicator was found depending on the individual economic and technological features of the studied farms. The average weighted annual intensity of CH4 emission from animal manure in pig farms varied within the range of 0.95–25.71, in cattle farm – 2.74; CH4 from intestinal fermentation of dairy cows – 110.8–148.4; N2O (direct) in pig farms – 0.0–0.106, in cattle farm – 0.229; N2O (indirect) in pig farms – 0.071–0.097, in cattle farm – 0.174. The emission intensity is characterized separately in each age and sex group of animals in the herd structure of farms and the average weighted emission intensity in pork producing farms depending on the season. Based on the research results, it is proposed to use the generalized average annual indicator of greenhouse gas emissions per one average weighted animal reared (kg/head/year) as an indicator of the environmental load of livestock farms on the environment, which will allow planning production volumes with minimal environmental risks in the context of climate change.
... Since the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Houghton et al. 2001), the rising ocean temperatures has emerged as a significant subject of investigation. Global ocean warming has been vigorously examined and correlated with the increasing Ocean Heat Content (OHC) (Levitus et al. 2005;Bindoff et al. 2007;AchutaRao et al. 2006). ...
Ocean warming has emerged as a pivotal research topic in the field of climate science. With increasing global warming the surface as well as the Subsurface Temperature (ST) of the global oceans have exhibited a steady increasing trend over the last few decades. This paper presents a hybrid method to predict the ST of the Arabian Sea by following a decomposition-based Machine Learning (ML) regression. The study considers Sea Level Pressure, humidity, wind speed, Sea Surface Temperature and heat fluxes which impact the ST. The proposed methodology first uses the Akaike Information Criterion to determine the most significant parameters influencing the ST. Next, Empirical Mode Decomposition is applied to each of the selected parameters, forming a dataset of corresponding Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residues. Redundant IMFs and residues are filtered out by Spearman’s correlation function. The newly formed compact dataset then undergoes ML regression. This hybrid methodology has demonstrated improved accuracy in predicting the ST at the depths of 5 m and 25 m.
A tuned version of HadCM3 (HadCM3t) is used to simulate the climate of the mid‐Pliocene warm period (mPWP) and is compared with the original untuned version of HadCM3 (HadCM3u). After the tuning, HadCM3t performs as well as HadCM3u in simulating the preindustrial climate, but aligns better with the reconstructed mPWP sea surface temperature anomalies, primarily due to a better representation of high latitude warming. Regarding the mPWP climate anomaly relative to the preindustrial, compared to HadCM3u, HadCM3t produces stronger mid‐to‐high latitude warming with polar warming 2.2 times the global mean, which is higher than the 2.0 of HadCM3u. The warming of the mPWP is primarily explained by an increase in emissivity and surface albedo. The warming of the polar regions induced by emissivity and surface albedo from HadCM3t is higher by 0.6° C and 0.7° C respectively, than that from HadCM3u, leading to warmer mPWP high latitudes. The increase in shortwave radiation over the Polar Regions is driven mainly by changes in surface albedo, which lead to a temperature rise of +0.7° C, and by changes in cloud cover, which contribute an additional +0.1° C to the temperature increase. Here, the increased cloud‐induced shortwave radiation change is due to decreased cloud fraction and decreased cloud scattering effect; the increased surface albedo‐induced radiative effects result from the increased ice loss due to warm high latitudes. This tuning allows models like HadCM3 to better align with proxy data, offering a more reliable baseline for projecting future scenarios under similar conditions.
Climate change remains a critical challenge confronting the contemporary world. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the global regions where over 70% of households directly rely on agriculture for livelihood and income. In this region, agriculture also contributes more to the Gross Domestic Product of national economies, and it is very susceptible to climate variability. Hence, considering the severity of climate change, understanding its link with agriculture and development is significant to ensuring the region’s rural development and industrialisation prospects. This chapter explores how climate change intersects with SSA’s agricultural development and rural industrialisation. Drawing from secondary sources and sectorial expertise, this chapter explores recent climate variations, identifies the impacts of climate change variations on agriculture, and determines how the effects of climate change on agriculture affect rural industrialisation. This chapter shows that climate change is damaging agroecological resources, thus affecting not only agricultural productivity but also livelihood activities. The negative impact on agriculture also adversely impacts industrialisation pulling factors in the countryside. This chapter recommends empowering rural communities to adapt to and mitigate climate change impacts on agricultural productivity to attract investors to the countryside. This empowerment requires rural development policy interventions at levels of government to acknowledge climate variability as one of the broader challenges of the rural development agenda to be able to invest adequately in dealing with the change.
This chapter concludes the book Agriculture, Autonomous Development and Prospects for Industrialisation in Africa. This is accomplished by offering general historical and theoretical comments about Africa’s agriculture, possibilities for development, and prospects for industrialisation. As this chapter illustrates, this book is located at the intersection of three strands of scholarly literature: literature on agriculture, literature on development, and literature on industrialisation. As a general trend, these three strands of literature do not sufficiently engage with each other, and this book has contributed to addressing this gap using examples across Sub-Saharan Africa. This chapter draws from the chapters that comprise this book. It also benefits from a huge body of literature on agriculture, development, and industrialisation to summarise the book’s key themes. Overall, this chapter shows how agriculture could intersect with industrialisation to bring about development in Africa.
Пижик І., Шпаківська І., Марискевич О., Рожак В., Дичкевич В., Пука Є. ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ФОРМУВАННЯ І ОЦІНКА ЗАПАСІВ ОРГАНІЧНОГО КАРБОНУ В ЛІСОВИХ ЕКОСИСТЕМАХ РЕГІОНАЛЬНОГО ЛАНДШАФТНОГО ПАРКУ “НАДСЯНСЬКИЙ” ЯК СКЛАДОВОЇ ЧАСТИНИ МРБ “СХІДНІ КАРПАТИ” – ЛЬВІВ, 2022 – 144 с.
За ред. О.Г.Марискевич
У монографії оцінено запаси органічного Карбону в основних пулах лісових екосистемах РЛП “Надсянський”: фітомаса, ґрунт, лісова підстилк і грубі деревні залишки. Оцінку проводили на базі Яблунського лісництва Державного підприємства Боринське лісове господарство. Для оцінки запасів органічного Карбону використовували статистичні дані і дані власних польових досліджень. Вперше для даних території оцінено внесок рубок у баланс органічного Карбону, а також оцінено запас органічного накопиченого на діляках зрубів. Проведено оцінку просторової і часової динаміки органічного Карбону.
Ддля біологів, географів, екологів, фахівців з охорони природи і лісового господарства, а також викладачів і студентів вищих навчальних закладів.
Many Reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs) use prescribed concentrations or Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols as inputs for projections. Revisions to these datasets, made in Chapter 7 and Annex III of the Sixth IPCC Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis (AR6, 2021) are vital to ensure the accuracy of climate model forecasts. AR6 provided updates to the formulation of ERF for most GHGs and tropospheric aerosols, relative to values in AR5 (2013). In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how the changes to the ERF datasets impact projections of future warming, using our multiple linear regression energy balance RCM, the Empirical Model of Global Climate (EM-GC). We provide an analysis of the rate of human−induced warming (AAWR) between 1974 and 2014, and Effective Climate Sensitivity (EffCS) from the regression to the observation-based historical climate record with ERF datasets predating the AR6 report (which we term Baseline Framework) and AR6 ERF data (AR6 Framework). Probabilistic projections on future warming that consider the uncertainty in the magnitude of climate feedback and ERF from tropospheric aerosols are provided for four policy-relevant Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We find AAWR within the AR6 Framework to be 0.18 [0.13 to 0.21 °C decade−1, 5−95 % range], a slight increase to the values of 0.16 [0.12 to 0.20 °C decade−1] within the Baseline Framework. The central estimate of EffCS is found to be nearly identical between the two Frameworks, but a narrower range is found for the AR6 Framework at 2.29 [1.54 to 3.11 °C, 5−95 % range] relative to 2.26 [1.45 to 4.37 °C] within the Baseline Framework. We find Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) to be 3.24 [1.92 to 5.15 °C] for the AR6 best estimate of the pattern effect. Our estimates of AAWR, EffCS and ECS are highly consistent with recent studies and observationally constrained CMIP6 model output. Projections of future warming for the AR6 Framework compared to the Baseline Framework show an increase of 0.2 to 0.4 °C in the end-of century median warming for the SSP scenarios studied. This increase corresponds to a significantly lowered possibility of accomplishing the goals of the Paris Agreement (PA). In particular, the SSP2−4.5 scenario, that is widely considered to be consistent with current climate policies, only offers an 8 % chance of accomplishing the PA upper limit of 2.0 °C warming by the end of the century within the AR6 Framework.
This study aims to predict the vulnerability caused by hurricane crises and highlights the importance of effective crisis management in Khash City. Using a storm threshold speed of 15 m/s, the monthly, seasonal, and annual wind patterns of Khash City were analyzed with WRPLOT 8.0.2 software. To predict storm return periods for intervals ranging from 1 to 100 years, the Gumbel method and partial series method were applied based on the latest recorded data (1986-2018). The analytical results revealed that storm return periods were predicted with greater intensity using the partial series method compared to the Gumbel method. For the 100-year return period, the Gumbel method estimated the most severe monthly storms with intensities of 29.1 m/s, while the partial series method predicted stronger storms with intensities of 32.2 m/s, 31.7 m/s, and 30.4 m/s. The results suggest that the partial series method provides a more reliable prediction of hurricanes than the Gumbel distribution. This method's higher upper-limit estimates are particularly valuable for ensuring the safety of structures and for developing strategies to reduce human and financial losses. Consequently, the partial series method is recommended for hurricane prediction and optimal crisis management planning in Khash City.
The purpose of the thesis research is to determine how susceptible the ecosystems in the city of İzmir are to the effects of climate change and provide relevant data to policymakers so that they could develop more efficient climate change adaptation measures. İzmir city is facing challenges in addressing the vulnerabilities triggered by climate change. The biophysical components that contributed to ecosystem vulnerability in the city include the urban heat island effect, urban pluvial floods, and coastal floods. These components were evaluated using a stringent approach that utilized the most recent findings from scientific research and various technological instruments. The analysis results were provided to portray the parts of the city that were most susceptible to the effects of climate change, and the results were further evaluated to better comprehend the processes that contributed to intensifying the consequences of climate change for the vulnerable regions. A thorough investigation and in-depth inspections were carried out using representative tiles from the city, and the results showed that existence of tree and green areas, imperviousness density, Footprint Ratio, Floor Surface Index, and road ratio were the most contributing factors of climate change vulnerability. Following the process of analysis, a systematic of planning and planning parameters were developed that embraced nature-based solutions and a performance-based planning approach for enabling the adaptation of settlements to climate change. The findings contributed significantly to the expanding body of knowledge on how to adapt to the effects of climate change and provided suggestions for efficient measures to mitigate the related risks in İzmir.
Climate change has heightened the need to understand physical climate risks, such as the increasing frequency and severity of heat waves, for informed financial decision-making. This study investigates the financial implications of extreme heat waves on stock returns in Europe and the United States. Accordingly, the study combines meteorological and stock market data by integrating methodologies from both climate science and finance. The authors use meteorological data to ascertain the five strongest heat waves since 1979 in Europe and the United States, respectively, and event study analyses to capture their effects on stock prices across firms with varying levels of environmental performance. The findings reveal a marked increase in the frequency of heat waves in the 21st century, reflecting global warming trends, and that European heat waves generally have a higher intensity and longer duration than those in the United States. This study provides evidence that extreme heat waves reduce stock values in both regions, with portfolio declines of up to 3.1%. However, there are marked transnational differences in investor reactions. Stocks listed in the United States appear more affected by the most recent heat waves compared to those further in the past, whereas the effect on European stock prices is more closely tied to event intensity and duration. For the United States sample only, the analysis reveals a mitigating effect of high corporate environmental performance against heat risk. This study introduces an innovative interdisciplinary methodology, merging meteorological precision with financial analytics to provide deeper insights into climate-related risks.
Oyster mushrooms (Pleurotus ostreatus) are known to metabolize polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in petroleum crude oil, making them candidates for oil spill remediation studies. This work aimed to assess P. ostreatus for its hydrocarbon degradation potential in estuarine conditions. In vitro experiments evaluated nutrient amendments based on P. ostreatus carbon: nitrogen: phosphorous (C: N: P) ratios to optimize mycelium growth, increase degradation efficiencies, and reduce potential nutrient run-off in broader applications. Image analysis was used to track mycelium growth response to various salinities, nutrient amendments, and oil types. Subsequent evaluation of alterations within the saturate, aromatic, resin, and asphaltene (SARA) fractions constituting Louisiana Sweet Crude (LSC) were conducted via SARA analysis. Results indicate that P. ostreatus mycelium tolerates estuarine salinities, with maximum growth between 5-15 ‰. Relative to 0 ‰, growth was reduced at salinities >25 ‰, but positive growth was still observed. Nutrient amendments significantly increased growth over seven days relative to untreated samples (p < 0.0001). The combination of ammonium chloride and potassium phosphate yielded optimal mycelium growth after 7 days. Mycelium and nutrients significantly altered saturate (p = 0.0015) and asphaltene (p = 0.0124) fractions in LSC. This study suggests that mycelium growth is viable under estuarine salinities and can be enhanced with nutrient amendments. Introducing nutrient factors was shown to influence oil degradation. Results also indicate that mycelium can reduce recalcitrant oil fractions. Thus, this study highlights the adaptability of P. ostreatus to estuarine conditions and its response to nutrient amendments, all while offering a promising approach to crude oil bioremediation.
Resumo Este artigo investiga a relação entre desconforto térmico e desempenho acadêmico dos alunos nas avaliações do Sistema de Avaliação da Educação de Pernambuco (SAEPE). O SAEPE, que avalia a qualidade educacional por meio de testes periódicos, é analisado junto com dados climáticos dos municípios pernambucanos. Os resultados indicam que temperaturas acima de 30ºC estão associadas a um desempenho acadêmico inferior, sugerindo que o desconforto térmico prejudica a concentração e a eficiência cognitiva. Algumas exceções ocorrem em municípios quentes com boa infraestrutura escolar. O estudo recomenda melhorar as condições térmicas nas escolas e sugere mais pesquisas sobre o impacto do calor. Utilizou-se uma abordagem qualitativa, conforme Minayo (2009), e a metodologia quantitativa, seguindo Silveira e Gerhardt, para analisar dados brutos. Fontes incluíram dados do SAEPE e informações climáticas do INMET, além de uma revisão bibliográfica para contextualizar a pesquisa. Palavras-chave: Desconforto térmico. Ensino-aprendizagem. Pernambuco. Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between thermal discomfort and students' academic performance in assessments by the Pernambuco Education Assessment System (SAEPE). The SAEPE, which assesses educational quality through periodic tests, is analyzed together with climate data from municipalities in Pernambuco. The results indicate that temperatures above 30ºC are associated with lower academic performance, suggesting that thermal discomfort impairs concentration and cognitive efficiency. Some exceptions occur in hot municipalities with good school infrastructure. The study recommends improving thermal conditions in schools and suggests further research on the impact of heat. A qualitative approach, following Minayo (2009), and a quantitative methodology, following Silveira and Gerhardt, were used to analyze raw data. Sources included data from SAEPE and climate information from INMET, in addition to a literature review to contextualize the research.
Climate change is impacting global rainfall patterns, subsequently affecting food security worldwide. This study aims to analyse long-term rainfall trends at finer spatial resolutions to understand the effects of changing rainfall patterns on agriculture and other socioeconomic activities. Point rain-gauge data presents limitations, such as non-uniform geographic coverage, issues of data continuity and availability, and lack of data in remote regions. These challenges make high-resolution spatial trend analysis using point gauge observations difficult. To overcome these limitations, the study utilizes the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data, which merges remote sensing data (radar and satellite observations) calibrated with rain-gauge datasets. The CHIRPS dataset, available at three temporal scales with a 5-km spatial resolution, is used for trend analysis and drought monitoring. The research evaluates rainfall trends over Haryana and its 77 tehsils (talukas) at seasonal and annual scales from 1981 to 2020. Trend analysis was conducted using the Mann–Kendall Test, Spearman’s coefficient test, and the magnitude of the trends was assessed using Sen’s slope estimate and linear regression. The findings reveal an increasing trend in both annual and monsoonal rainfall across Haryana and its 77 tehsils, except for Naraingarh tehsil in northern Haryana. The western part of Haryana shows a statistically significant increase in annual and monsoon rainfall. Conversely, winter and post-monsoon seasons exhibit a decreasing trend across almost all tehsils, while pre-monsoon rainfall shows a significant rising trend in the southern and southeastern tehsils. The annual and monsoon rainfall patterns have shifted, increasing by 6.26% and 6.68% respectively from the 1981–2010 WMO standard period to 1991–2020. These changing patterns suggest potential impacts on agricultural and economic activity management.
The monograph exhibits Bulgaria’s climatic classification employing De
Martonne and Thornthwaite’s classification indices. The work consists of 9
chapters and a conclusion, with a total volume of 138 pages.
The research of present interest is necessitated by the study of the regional climatic conditions in a spatiotemporal perspective since it is directly
related to nature and human social activity. Ever since ancient times, human
economic activity has been putting natural complexes under pressure, thus
transforming them, or exposing them to the risk of fragmentation and functionality loss. In the modern world, characterized by colossal industrial and
agricultural production, and global transportation and information infrastructure, severe problems arise from the enormous demographic pressure on
the natural environment.
In all IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, the
necessity of regional climate studies is clearly indicated. Hence, the authors’
objective is to develop the Bulgarian climatic classification, employing the
De Martonne and Thornthwaite’s indices.
In the state of the art, numerous classifications covering the Earth globe
or large parts of the planet are discussed. The two main groups are introduced here: 1. Genetic studies (Hetner, Flon, Alisov, etc.) and 2. Effective or
quantitative (Zupan, Köppen, Wiseman, Thornthwaite, De Martonne, etc.).
The Bulgarian contributions are examined in detail – Kirov (1929, 1936),
Kirov and Kyuchukova (1955), Sabev, Stanev, Dimitrov among others.
In the second chapter, the authors focus on the theoretical framework,
since the regional classifications of climates are directly related to the general claims valid for the modern Earth sciences.
Geographic space, an integral part of which is also the climate, is taken
as a space-time unity, perceived as a Planet Earth integrated subsystem.
The authors employ the geophysical concept “Climate System” and its interpretation in the form of: Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Lithosphere, Cryosphere
and Biosphere. The notion of “climate” is critically discussed in terms of the
chronological horizon, system components volume, genetic factors, etc.
The authors follow Lorenz’s proposed concepts of “transitivity, intransitivity and almost-intransitivity” referring to the climate system. They argue
that impermanence is climate’s attribute. The study is in line with the analysis and generalizations made by Lorenz (1993) about the climate system
being “nonlinear, dynamic, deterministic, dissipative, highly sensitive, almost
intransitive, unpredictable”. Global climate is chronological behavior of the
system and represents the global weather evolution.9
Modern climate statistical parameters, globally and regionally alike,
are an integral part of any interglacial phase characteristics after the last
Würm glaciation.
When determining climate, chronological intervals are identified as
long enough, infinite or decreed (30 years according to the World Meteorological Organization / WMO). The smallest temporal interval, for which
the climate is defined, can be determined in observance of some statistical
requirement for the average values to fluctuate within the limits of a specified error. Thus, such a climate, besides being a climate history, will also
be in some sense stationary.
Complex climate indices supplement the valuable information contained in the indicators for the individual elements, since in natural conditions a number of impacts are the result of the combined influence of the
two fundamental genetic cycles – thermal and moisture circulation.
The authors’ main argument is that climate classification in Bulgaria
in empirical regional studies can be represented by indicators obtained
through De Martonne and Thornthwaite’s calculation schemes.
The monograph is based on meteorological data for air temperature
(monthly average and annual values) and precipitation (monthly and annual values). The observation period duration is from 30 to 120 years. The
source information obtained covers 103 stations from Bulgaria, as well as
50 stations from Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece, and Turkey.
The meteorological information density is best for the lowland and hypsometric belt with plains and hills (plain-hilly belt).
The output data processing is based on mathematical statistical methods. To establish the uniformity of the output rows, are applied non-parametric and parametric criteria, and the approximating theoretical distribution functions are determined as well. The central moments method,
offering reliable estimates for phenomena and processes with a normal
or close to normal theoretical distribution, is being employed. In the study,
regression and correlation analysis are widely implemented. Climate indices spatial distribution and visualization is presented in a GIS environment
that adequately represents the territorial distribution of the used climate
indices. The latter allows for parallels with peer research.
The statistical processing results of De Martonne and Thornthwaite
climate indices are pointed out. Calculations cover the reference observation period 1961 – 1990, for over 100 Bulgarian stations and over 50
stations from the surrounding lands.
The classification indices spatial distribution by hypsometric geographical belts are depicted in detail. Both in Northern and Southern Bulgaria, as well as in the surrounding areas at similar altitudes, close values
of the relevant climate type indices are noted. There are deviations that10
are determined by the local relief and the atmospheric fronts trajectories.
A realistic relation between hypsometry and climate indices is sought,
by using altitude profiles for the investigated geographical belts. The assumed linear function and the obtained empirical gradients are controversial in a sense. A significant result of the study are the established differences in the hydrothermal indices values for Northern versus Southern
Bulgaria in the lowland and plain-hilly belt. The probable cause for this is
also indicated, namely differences in the intra-annual precipitation distribution.
De Martonne (IDM) and Thornthwaite (Im) indices are applied to reveal
regularities in the chronological fluctuations of Bulgaria’s climate. Statistical processing includes the central moments method, filtered averages
and linear regression for the periods 1901 – 2016, 1901 – 1990, 1901 –
1930, 1931 – 1960, 1961 – 1990, 1987 – 2016. Credible differences in climate types are found at most stations for the period 1901–1930 compared
to 1961–1990. For the period 1901 – 2016, multidirectional insignificant
trends are obtained; for the period 1987 – 2016, the trend is positive and
well expressed in the selected stations, and moreover, for the Plovdiv region it is statistically significant.
Deviations in the used indices for the periods 1931 – 1960 and 1961 –
1990 are presented by the standard deviation value. Significant fluctuations of the classification indices are found in all stations, meaning that
climate types different from the calculated average value are observed in
single years. Single occurrences of 4 – 5 climate types, i.e., different climates, are usually noted in one station for 30 years. The drought tendency
decades 1961 – 1990 in contrast to 1931 – 1960 is confirmed.
The study’s most essential conclusions can be summarized as follows:
1. The chronological and spatial climate features can be represented
well by the physically based classification systems of De Martonne and
Thornthwaite.
2. In Bulgaria, almost all climate types are established, except for the
Dry climate type (De Martonne) and Arid climate type (Thornthwaite).
3. The Semi-humid, Humid and Extremely humid climate types (De
Marton), and Dry sub-humid, Moist sub-humid and Humid types (Thornthwaite) are territorially dominant in Bulgaria.
4. A drying period of the country’s climate is observed at the end of
the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century, with the start of higher humidification phase.
5. In separate years, in all stations, deviations that change the climate
Soil represents Earth’s largest carbon reservoir, and comprehending the distribution of carbon within it is vital for maintaining this carbon store. Understanding the factors influencing carbon distribution is crucial for forecasting global carbon dynamics and their ecological impacts. Soil microbes actively engage in nearly all biochemical processes within soil. Carbon distribution and transformation occur through various soil components, with microbes playing a pivotal role in these processes. When carbon is readily accessible to microorganisms and their extracellular enzymes, it undergoes rapid oxidation. These microbial activities serve as indicators of carbon sequestration and soil functionality, which ultimately contribute to sustaining soil with high carbon reserves. To gain a comprehensive understanding of carbon sequestration potential, proper carbon mapping and speciation analyses are necessary. Furthermore, investigations into influencing factors such as soil microbes, microaggregates, and land use management are imperative. Anthropogenic activities have been observed to modify carbon distribution by altering storage capacity and impacting the composition and dynamics of soil organic carbon, thus influencing soil organic matter. Soil acts as a significant reservoir of carbon primarily in the form of soil organic carbon (SOC) and holds the potential to store more carbon than the atmosphere. Carbon from primary producers in ecosystems, utilized during plant photosynthesis, is transferred to the soil as soil organic matter (SOM). Microbial communities are instrumental in interconverting different carbon forms. Enhanced understanding of these mechanisms can facilitate improved carbon sequestration in soil, given their indicative role in the process.
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