No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.
Abstract
Cognitive psychology has identified and studied extensively a number of cognitive anomalies that may be important for the assessment of the economic status of individuals and households. In particular the use of brackets to elicit information about income and assets in surveys of households can interact with acquiescence bias and anchoring to cause bias in the estimates of the distributions of income and assets. This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Asset and Health Dynamics Study to find that, as predicted by psychology, bracketing can produce bias in population estimates of assets.
... Another problem that leads to incorrect answers in an unfolding bracket design is acquiescence or "yea-saying" This is the problem that people have a tendency to answer yes rather than no. See Schuman and Presser (1981) or Hurd (1999). It implies that answers may depend on the wording of the question. ...
... A direct test of yea-saying is preformed by Hurd (1999). He uses experimental data from the 1996 wave of the Health and Retirement Study, a representative sample of the US population aged 54-64 with their spouses. ...
... In the approach discussed above, we have taken the answers literally and have used a According to Hurd (1999), acquiescence bias and anchoring become more important if respondents are more uncertain about the actual amounts. Hurd (1999) analyzes experimental data on asset holdings, and finds that the answers of the financial respondent -the person in the household who is more knowledgeable in financial matters and answers most of the financial questions -are hardly subject to acquiescence bias, while for others, acquiescence bias is quite prominent. ...
... A second source of incorrect answers in an unfolding bracket design is acquiescence or "yea-saying," the phenomenon that people have a tendency to answer yes rather than no (Schuman and Presser 1996;Hurd 1999). For example, the number of yes answers to the question "Was it $2,000 or more?" will be higher than the number of no answers to the question "Was it less than $2,000?" ...
... A direct test of yea-saying on an economic issue was performed by Hurd (1999). He used experimental data from the 1996 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a representative sample of the U.S. population aged 54-64 and their spouses. ...
... According to Hurd (1999), acquiescence and anchoring become more important if respondents are more uncertain about the actual amounts. Hurd (1999) analyzed experimental data on asset holdings and found that the answers of the financial respondentthe person in the household who is more knowledgeable in financial matters and answers most of the financial questions-are hardly subject to acquiescence bias, whereas for others, acquiescence bias is quite prominent. ...
We analyze experimental survey data, with a random split into respondents who get an open-ended question on the amount of total family consumption (with follow-up unfolding brackets of the form "Is consumption $X or more?" for those who answer "don't know" or "refuse") and respondents who are immediately directed to unfolding brackets. In both cases, the entry point of the unfolding bracket sequence is randomized. Allowing for any type of selection into answering the open-ended or bracket questions, a nonparametric test is developed for errors in the answers to the first bracket question that are different from the usual reporting errors that will also affect open-ended answers. Two types of errors are considered explicitly: anchoring and yea-saying. Data are collected in the 1995 wave of the Assets and Health Dynamics survey, which is representative of the population in the United States that is 70 years and older. We reject the joint hypothesis of no anchoring and no yea-saying. Once yea-saying is taken into account, we find no evidence of anchoring at the entry point.
... Those who are unwilling to respond to questions eliciting point responses are asked whether the quantity of interest lies above or below a sequence of specified thresholds. See Juster and Suzman (1995) and Hurd (1999). ...
... Various researchers have reported that anchoring is less pronounced when persons report themselves to be, or are conjectured to be, more knowledgeable about variable B. Wilson et al. (1996) asks subjects to classify themselves as less or more knowledgeable about variable B, and they find less anchoring among those who classify themselves as more knowledgeable. Hurd (1999) reports that HRS respondents answering unfolding bracket questions exhibit less anchoring when, in Hurd's judgement, they are more knowledgeable about variable B. ...
... To reduce nonresponse, the WLS asked a series of bracketing questions: (4) Is it worth more or less than $X dollars or about $X dollars? The WLS also varied the entry point into the series of bracketing questions (the value of X varied randomly) to control for anchoring biases (Hurd 1999). Bracketing substantially increases response rates (Chand and Gan 2003;Hauser and Willis 2005;Hurd 1999;Hurd and Rodgers 1998). ...
... The WLS also varied the entry point into the series of bracketing questions (the value of X varied randomly) to control for anchoring biases (Hurd 1999). Bracketing substantially increases response rates (Chand and Gan 2003;Hauser and Willis 2005;Hurd 1999;Hurd and Rodgers 1998). This is important because, consistent with data collection on wealth in many other datasets, there are considerable missing data on each of the assets and liabilities that make up net worth. ...
To assess and explain the United States' gender wealth gap, we use the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to examine wealth accumulated by a single cohort over 50 years by gender, by marital status, and limited to the respondents who are their family's best financial reporters. We find large gender wealth gaps between currently married men and women, and between never-married men and women. The never-married accumulate less wealth than the currently married, and there is a marital disruption cost to wealth accumulation. The status-attainment model shows the most power in explaining gender wealth gaps between these groups explaining about one-third to one-half of the gap, followed by the human-capital explanation. In other words, a lifetime of lower earnings for women translates into greatly reduced wealth accumulation. After controlling for the full model, we find that a gender wealth gap remains between married men and women that we speculate may be related to gender differences in investment strategies and selection effects.
... We cannot exclude the possibility of having occurred some interviewer biases, such as question-order bias (Bradburn & Mason, 1964) or wording bias (Drayton, 1954). Likewise, also respondents might have fallen prey to social desirability bias (Zerbe & Paulhus, 1987), to the Hawthorne effect (Diaper, 1990;Landsberger, 1958), or to acquiescence bias (Hurd & Kapteyn, 2000). Being aware of these biases, significant effort was put into the design of a comprehensive semi-structured interview guide followed by thorough validation by a second researcher. ...
Complex multi-actor decision contexts often benefit from facilitated modelling (FM) approaches, wherein the operational researcher (OR) acts as both analyst and facilitator, guiding the client through the entire OR intervention. Conducting an FM intervention is complex, involving managing participants’ interactions and group dynamics, structuring process tasks, and mastering the use of several artefacts (e.g. notes, model, technology), either in-person or in virtual environments. Literature on facilitation in OR is quite limited, focusing mainly on specific contexts and case studies, and lacking generalisable insights for FM practice. This paper aims to advance the understanding of Decision Conferencing (DCing)—an FM approach that makes use of decision analysis concepts, methods, and tools—through an analysis of reflexive accounts from OR practitioners to identify practices, trends, challenges, and opportunities in both traditional (in-person) and virtual settings. We conducted semi-structured interviews with nineteen OR practitioners (from academia and industry) with experience in DCing facilitation, which were consented, recorded, transcribed, coded, and analysed using reflective thematic analysis. Our findings contribute to the existing FM literature by providing first-hand accounts of OR practitioner experiences and offer insights for advancing DCing and FM research, practice, and training.
... Whilst I validated findings using regional aggregates from Flash EBs, more precise individual-level questions would enhance the research. Moreover, there is a potential social desirability bias in EB questions, where respondents might affirm familiarity with EU institutions or policies due to agreement bias or to avoid appearing uneducated (Bayerlein and Diermeier, 2022;Hurd and Kapteyn, 2000). Lastly, future research should also explore the role of regionalist parties in shaping regional support for European integration, considering their nuanced stance: whilst generally more supportive of economic integration, these parties tend to be less enthusiastic about political integration (Massetti and Schakel, 2021). ...
A vital element of the European Union (EU) political system is the idea of further European integration. Whilst most existing works investigate the effects of the Cohesion Policy (CP), only a handful of studies consider the effects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on citizens' support for European integration. In this contribution, I argue that these two largest EU redistribution policies neutralise each other in their effects on the citizens' support for European integration: the CP improves public support due to its positively perceived redistributive nature and positive externalities, whilst the CAP decreases public support due to due to a limited target audience, somewhat elitarian distribution of resources and bureaucratic complexities. Using regional‐level CP and CAP data for 2017 and Eurobarometer surveys for 2018 and 2019, the empirical findings of multilevel regressions show that the CAP counteracts the positive effects of the CP on citizens' support for further European integration. The findings are robust to including a wide range of control variables, sample size change and alternative specifications of key independent variables. These findings also hint that policy evaluations should not disregard the differences between various policy instruments.
... Such processes include instability of property attributes, inconsistency of information, heterogeneity in access to information (Chmielewska et al., 2020;Levitt et al., 2008), deficiencies in the cognitive abilities of real estate market entities (Burnside et al., 2016;Radzewicz and Wisniewski, 2011); the uncertainty of system structures (Ho et al., 2005;Su et al., 2016), entities' emotional approach to transactions. Other factors causing uncertainty in the real estate market include cognitive biases, such as the redundant information effect and the attachment effect, which are a consequence of different types of heuristics and can negatively affect decision-making processes (Czechowska, 2014;Brzezicka et al., 2019;Brzezicka and Wiśniewski, 2013;Hurd, 1999). According to Renigier- Biłozor et al. (2018), uncertainty in the real estate market and its complexity are influenced by: the diversity and imprecision of property attributes, the multidimensional range of data, the sensitivity of property to environmental and economic changes and fashions, and the heterogeneity due to the nature and type of individual properties, as well as the oversimplification of reality to match commonly used analytical methods. ...
... For self-administered questionnaires, nurses were at risk for acquiescence biases (the tendency of nurses to agree with the researchers' purpose). 60 There are no identified techniques in the studies for eliminating these risks. ...
Repositioning immobilized individuals offloads pressure over the tissues and facilitates blood supply, preventing pressure injury. However, there is a gap in clarifying the practice of repositioning or standardizing the repositioning practice measurements. This scoping review aimed to clarify modes of assessing repositioning. PRISMA-ScR was used as a guideline to report the study, and The Joanna Briggs Institute Manual of Evidence Synthesis was used to conduct the scoping review. Manuscripts published between 2009 and 2021 were identified in the following databases: Cochrane Wounds Group Specialized Register, Ovid MEDLINE, EBSCO CINAHL, Clinical Key database, and Ovid MEDLINE (in-process & non-indexed citations, Jan 2009-Jan 2021), in addition to the reference sections of the potentially relevant studies. This review included English-language, interventional and non-interventional studies, department and healthcare facility reports with full-text content. This review excluded economic reviews, qualitative studies, systematic reviews, and studies that did not focus on the procedure being performed by nurses. The STROBE checklist and Downs and Black’s quality assessment process were applied to check the quality of the reported article. Twenty-four studies were analyzed, four randomized, five non-randomized, and 15 had cross-sectional designs. The most common mode for measuring repositioning compliance was a chart review, used in 11 studies, followed by digital observation used in five studies; four used observation, and four used self-administered questionnaires. No measurement tool could address all issues with the accuracy and dependability of measurements. The review considers the need for a new standardized repositioning measurement instrument.
... 43 Skip logic is a commonly accepted survey practice 42 designed to minimize the risk of respondent burden and survey fatigue, which can also lead to biased results. 42,43 Other potential sources of bias for consideration in this study include acquiescence bias (the tendency of respondents to agree rather than disagree with statements; ie, potentially accept donor offers), 44 and social desirability bias (the tendency to overreport desirable attributes; that is, potentially answer in a manner the respondent believes will make their transplant center be viewed in a positive lens) which can be conscious or not. 45 However, the survey was anonymous which minimizes the risk of social desirability bias, 46 and while information regarding transplant center was collected, respondents were informed responses would not be tied back to their center. ...
Background:
Significant variability in organ acceptance thresholds have been demonstrated across the United States, but data regarding the rate and rationale for kidney donor organ decline in Canada are lacking.
Objective:
To examine decision making regarding deceased kidney donor acceptance and non-acceptance in a population of Canadian transplant professionals.
Design:
A survey study of theoretical deceased donor kidney cases of increasing complexity.
Setting:
Canadian transplant nephrologists, urologists, and surgeons making donor call decisions responding to an electronic survey between July 22 and October 4, 2022.
Participants:
Invitations to participate were distributed to 179 Canadian transplant nephrologists, surgeons, and urologists through e-mail. Participants were identified by contacting each transplant program and requesting a list of physicians who take donor call.
Measurements:
Survey respondents were asked whether they would accept or decline a given donor, assuming there was a suitable recipient. They were also asked to cite reasons for donor non-acceptance.
Methods:
Donor scenario-specific acceptance rates (total acceptance divided by total number of respondents for a given scenario and overall) and reasons for decline were determined and presented as a percentage of the total cases declined.
Results:
In all, 72 respondents from 7 provinces completed at least one question of the survey, with considerable variability between acceptance rates for centers; the most conservative center declined 60.9% of donor cases, whereas the most aggressive center declined only 28.1%, P-value < .001. There was an increased risk of non-acceptance with advancing age, donation after cardiac death, acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease, and comorbidities.
Limitations:
As with any survey, there is the potential for participation bias. In addition, this study examines donor characteristics in isolation, however, asks respondent to assume there is a suitable candidate available. In reality, whenever donor quality is considered, it should be considered in the context of the intended recipient.
Conclusion:
In a survey of increasingly medically complex deceased kidney donor cases, there was significant variability in donor decline among Canadian transplant specialists. Given relatively high rates of donor decline and apparent heterogeneity in acceptance decisions, Canadian transplant specialists may benefit from additional education regarding the benefits achieved from even medically complex kidney donors for appropriate candidates relative to remaining on dialysis on the transplant waitlist.
... 1113). Три пункта содержат речевые обороты, способные привести к искажениям на основе допущений [45]. Например, в пункте «В наши дни небезопасно отпускать детей на улицу одних» выражение «в наши дни» может подтолкнуть участника к заключению, что преступность является или стала серьезной проблемой в последние годы. ...
Objective : to develop a new justified scale of fear of crime, based on the theory of constructed emotion, qualitative interviews and factor analysis.
Methods : dialectical approach to cognition of social phenomena, using the general scientific and specific scientific methods of cognition, based on it.
Results : Fear of crime researchers have long debated how to best define and measure fear of crime. There is disagreement about the definition of fear of crime, which has led to inconsistent measurement. Our goal was to develop a new fear of crime scale using a theory of emotion and rigorous methodology. Scale development involved five major stages: in-depth interviews to understand how people describe their fear of crime, qualitative analysis to develop questionnaire items, pretesting, factor analyses, and psychometric validation. Qualitative interviews ( N = 29) revealed that people use words like “fear”, “worry”, and “concern” interchangeably. After qualitative analysis led to an initial item pool, factor analyses yielded a 10-item, onefactor scale. Quantitative analyses ( N = 665) revealed standardized factor loadings between 0.715 and 0.888, an internal consistency of a = 0.945, and convergent and divergent validity. Our new measure will allow greater precision when researching fear of crime.
Scientific novelty : this study introduced the theory of constructed emotion to the study of fear of crime. The wide range of interviewees’ descriptions of their fear of crime is consistent with the theory of constructed emotion. Many interviewees conflated fear, worry, concern, and other emotion words, which illustrates the concept of emotional granularity. When someone uses words like “fear” and “concern” interchangeably, it suggests that that person’s experience of those emotions is the same in that context. The theory of constructed emotion posits that emotions are subjective and depend on the present context, someone’s previous experiences, and their understanding and use of emotion words. According to qualitative interviews, fear of crime encompasses many feelings including concern, unpleasant affect, worry, anxiety, paranoia, and panic. These findings will allow future research to further build theory on fear of crime.
Practical significance : the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific, pedagogical and law enforcement activities when considering the issues related to the levels of fear of crime.
The article was first published in English language by Criminology, Criminal Justice, Law & Society and The Western Society of Criminology Hosting by Scholastica . For more information please contact: CCJLS@WesternCriminology.org.
For original publication: Etopio, Au. L., Berthelot, E. R. (2022). Defining and Measuring Fear of Crime: A New Validated Scale Created from Emotion Theory, Qualitative Interviews, and Factor Analyses. Criminology, Criminal Justice, Law & Society, 23 (1), 46–67.
Publication URL: https://ccjls.scholasticahq.com/article/34104-defining-and-measuring-fear-of-crime-a-new-validated-scale-created from-emotion-theory-qualitative-interviews-and-factor-analyses
... 1113). Three items have leading language that could encourage an acquiescence bias (Hurd, 1999). For example, the inclusion of the word "nowadays" in the item "Nowadays it is too unsafe to let children be unsupervised on the streets" may lead participants to believe that crime is a serious problem or has increased in recent years. ...
... 1113). Three items have leading language that could encourage an acquiescence bias (Hurd, 1999). For example, the inclusion of the word "nowadays" in the item "Nowadays it is too unsafe to let children be unsupervised on the streets" may lead participants to believe that crime is a serious problem or has increased in recent years. ...
Fear of crime researchers have long debated how to best define and measure fear of crime. There is disagreement about the definition of fear of crime, which has led to inconsistent measurement. Our goal was to develop a new fear of crime scale using a theory of emotion and rigorous methodology. Scale development involved five major stages: in-depth interviews to understand how people describe their fear of crime, qualitative analysis to develop questionnaire items, pretesting, factor analyses, and psychometric validation. Qualitative interviews (N = 29) revealed that people use words like "fear," "worry," and "concern" interchangeably. After qualitative analysis led to an initial item pool, factor analyses yielded a 10-item, one-factor scale. Quantitative analyses (N = 665) revealed standardized factor loadings between .715 and .888, an internal consistency of α = .945, and convergent and divergent validity. Our new measure will allow greater precision when researching fear of crime.
... 2020), braki w zdolnościach poznawczych podmiotów rynku nieruchomości (Burnside i in., 2015; Radzewicz i Wiśniewski, 2011); niepewność struktur systemowych (Hu i in., 2005; Su i in., 2016), emocjonalne podejście podmiotów do transakcji. Do innych czynników powodujących niepewność na rynku nieruchomości należą błędy poznawcze, takie jak efekt zbędnych informacji i efekt przywiązania, które są konsekwencją różnego rodzaju heurystyk i mogą niekorzystnie wpływać na procesy decyzyjne (Czechowska, 2014;Brzezicka , 2016;Brzezicka i Wiśniewski, 2014;Hurd, 1999). Według Renigier-Biłozor i in. ...
... The majority of studies on the accuracy of homeowners' valuations has been based upon comparison between self-reported dwelling valuations and transaction sale prices, i.e., actual prices of the same dwellings if sold during the two years after the survey, or in the year before the survey (Goodman and Ittner 1992;Kiel and Zabel 1999;Benitez-Silva et al. 2009), or with market value estimated using a market-based housing price index (Chan et al. 2016;Davis and Quintin 2017), or a standard hedonic model (Kuzmenko and Timmins 2011). The main criticism of using homeowners' subjective valuations in surveys is that this approach is prone to problems related to the cognitive complexity of the asset-valuation process (Hurd 1999), and to biases related to survey and item non-response (e.g., Groves et al. 2002). Referring to the specific item of subjective dwelling valuation, Kain and Quigley (1972) found that homeowners who answered an item relating to property value (60% of their sample) were typically those with higher levels of schooling and income, younger age, and less longevity as homeowners. ...
Housing policy, as well as academic research, are increasingly concerned with the role of bias in subjective dwelling valuations as a proximate measure of households’ house price expectations and their relationship with housing demand. This paper contributes to this area of study by exploring the possibility of simultaneous relationships between households’ price expectations and incentive to maximise the size of housing services demanded also accounting for the supply side factors and regional perspective. The empirical estimation takes the form of a system of a two simultaneous equations model applying two stage least squares estimation technique. Cross sectional estimations utilise data extracted from the Israeli Longitudinal Panel Survey (LPS) data. Applying the best available proxy for households’ price expectations, calculated as the ratio between subjective dwelling valuations (LPS) and the estimated market value of the same properties, research has identified the interrelated factors that simultaneously influence householders’ price expectations and housing demand. Results offer conceptual and empirical advantages, highlighting the imperfect nature of the housing market, as reflected by the inseparability of bias in subjective valuations and housing decisions.
... Such processes include, among others: instability of property attributes, lack of information coherence, heterogeneity in information access (Levitt and Syverson 2008), deficiencies in cognitive abilities of real estate market entities (Burnside et al. 2015) uncertainty of system structures (Ho et al. 2005;Su et al. 2016), emotional approach of entities to transactions. Other factors that cause uncertainty in the real estate market include cognitive biases, such as the effect of unnecessary information and the effect of attachment, which are the consequences of various types of heuristics and may adversely affect decision-making processes (Czechowska 2014;Brzezicka 2016;Brzezicka and Wiśniewski 2014;Hurd 1999). The following determinants can be a source of uncertainty in market evaluations Dawidowicz et al. 2013): ...
Every real estate investment decision making, because of the high capital-intensive character of properties, requires careful analysis of information. Availability of the information, market specificity and unpredictable or sudden changes on it cause that all real estate investments are subject to considerable risk and uncertainty. This specificity causes that, one can never be sure, that the collected set of information is complete though reliable for decision inference. The process of property market information collection, from numerical point of view is infinite since the information can be continuously supplemented or clarified. That is the reason for alternative to commonly (classically) used methods search that are effective in the selection of closest solutions optimal for multidimensional real functions, taking into account the global maximum.
The paper attempts to decrease the impact of the factors that cause uncertainty on the quality of real estate investment decisions through the tools based on the simulation of the process of natural selection and biological evolution application proposal. The aim of the study is to analyse the potential of the methodology based on genetic algorithms (GA) as part of the automated valuation models component in the uncertainty conditions and support investment decisions on the real estate market. The developed hybrid model (based on genetic algorithm and Hellwig’s method compound) allows to select properties adequate to the adopted assumptions, i.e. individuals best suited to the environment. The tool can be used by real estate investment advisors and potential investors.
... We offer two potential reasons for this divergent result. First, it is plausible that explicitly soliciting different forms of bridge employment intentions according to time commitment (part-time vs. full-time) and employer (same vs. different organization) in Study 2 created a survey anchoring effect (Hurd, 1999) that prompted the participants to report more fine-grained differentiations in their bridge employment intentions compared to Study 1 wherein only one type of bridge employment intention was probed. Indeed, mean levels for part-time bridge employment in the same organization are much higher in Study 1a and 1b compared to those in Study 2. Second, the results highlight the complex nature of bridge employment intentions given the various forms it can take. ...
Organizations benefit from older workers’ contributions even past the threshold of retirement, yet little is known about what motivates older workers to pursue bridge employment in their current organizations. Perceived organizational support (POS) typically helps organizations retain employees, yet some older workers may ironically be repelled by POS to the extent that it imposes an undesirable, excessive obligation. In this paper, we develop and test a model of how older workers’ intentions to engage in bridge employment toward their current organization are contingent upon the interaction between two central elements of older workers’ employment relationships: (1) perceived organizational support (POS), and (2) the type of psychological contract they endorse. In Study 1, using data from two samples (Study 1a N = 168; Study 1b time-lagged N = 157), we found that POS increased bridge employment intentions to the current organization among older workers endorsing a relational psychological contract. However, we also found that POS decreased bridge employment intentions to the current organization among older workers endorsing a transactional psychological contract. In Study 2 (N = 348), we unpacked the underlying mechanisms (role expansion and excessive obligation to the organization) that explain the interaction effects. The results indicate that how POS ‘fits’ with older workers’ psychological contracts informs their motivation to engage in bridge employment.
... There are a number of mechanisms through which the validity of self-reported information in surveys can be compromised. Some inaccuracies result from cognitive biases -for example, acquiescence or "yea-saying" (Bachman and O'Malley 1984;Hurd 1999), extreme responding (Cronbach 1946;Hamilton 1968), and question order bias (Sigelman 1981). One solution to problems such as question order bias is to randomize the order of questions (Warner 1965). ...
... O trabalho de Hurd (1999) demonstrou, em pesquisas realizadas com pessoas para verificar o viés da ancoragem na avaliação de casas, que os dados não experimentais em oito categorias de ativos e os dados experimentais sobre os valores de habitação mostraram efeitos da ancoragem. ...
... A large body of research focuses on improving the accuracy of self-reported information collected in household surveys. 2 In the context of IDPs, that respondents feel compelled 1 Although data from the USAID led Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) suggest high level of malnutrition, evidence on mortality across the counties is mixed (FEWS NET 2018). 2 There are a number of mechanisms through which the validity of self-reported information in surveys can be compromised. Some inaccuracies result from cognitive biases-for example, acquiescence or "yea-saying" (Bachman and O'Malley 1984;Hurd 1999), extreme responding 11 Eliciting Accurate Consumption Responses … 195 to misreport is particularly relevant. Indeed, survey respondents in IDP camps may believe that their responses will influence the provision of humanitarian aid and will thus misreport consumption in an attempt to influence its distribution. ...
‘This open access book addresses an urgent issue on which little organized information exists. It reflects experience in Africa but is highly relevant to other fragile states as well.’
—Constantine Michalopoulos, John Hopkins University, USA and former Director of Economic Policy and Co-ordination at the World Bank
Fragile countries face a triple data challenge. Up-to-date information is needed to deal with rapidly changing circumstances and to design adequate responses. Yet, fragile countries are among the most data deprived, while collecting new information in such circumstances is very challenging. This open access book presents innovations in data collection developed with decision makers in fragile countries in mind.
Looking at innovations in Africa from mobile phone surveys monitoring the Ebola crisis, to tracking displaced people in Mali, this collection highlights the challenges in data collection researchers face and how they can be overcome.
... A large body of research focuses on improving the accuracy of self-reported information collected in household surveys. 2 In the context of IDPs, that respondents feel compelled 1 Although data from the USAID led Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) suggest high level of malnutrition, evidence on mortality across the counties is mixed (FEWS NET 2018). 2 There are a number of mechanisms through which the validity of self-reported information in surveys can be compromised. Some inaccuracies result from cognitive biases-for example, acquiescence or "yea-saying" (Bachman and O'Malley 1984;Hurd 1999), extreme responding to misreport is particularly relevant. Indeed, survey respondents in IDP camps may believe that their responses will influence the provision of humanitarian aid and will thus misreport consumption in an attempt to influence its distribution. ...
In a recent Somali household survey among Internally Displaced People (IDPs), approximately 45% of IDP households reported food consumption below subsistence levels. These responses suggest that some respondents might be underreporting their consumption possibly because they may wish to hide their real consumption levels. To investigate whether responses would change if the importance of honesty was made more salient, a methodological experiment was conducted in South Sudan. We incorporated light touch honesty primes and added small checks to confirm zero-levels of consumption. The primes induced higher reporting for IDPs at very low levels of reported consumption, but not for respondents in the rest of the distribution. The treatment pattern is driven by aid reliant IDPs and vanishes when considering the comparison group of non-IDPs.
... There are a number of mechanisms through which the validity of self-reported information in surveys can be compromised. Some inaccuracies result from cognitive biases -for example, acquiescence or "yea-saying" (Bachman and O'Malley 1984;Hurd 1999), extreme responding (Cronbach 1946;Hamilton 1968), and question order bias (Sigelman 1981). One solution to problems such as question order bias is to randomize the order of questions (Warner 1965). ...
Misreporting is a well-known challenge for researchers in social sciences. This issue is especially prevalent if incentives for misreporting exist, for example, to claim certain benefits or hide illegal behavior. Internally displaced persons are a population that is highly dependent on aid receipts and, thus, have strong incentives to underreport consumption levels. To improve reporting for such vulnerable populations, this paper proposes to integrate “honesty primes” into the consumption module of the questionnaire. Honesty primes are unconscious stimuli that induce a certain cognition or
behavior. The study assesses the effectiveness of a bundle of randomly assigned primes within a sample of internally displaced persons in South Sudan. In line with the main
hypothesis, positive and significant effects arise for low consumption quantiles, especially consumption quantities that are more susceptible to manipulation. Hence, honesty primes can act as a cost-effective tool to induce more accurate reporting. Further research is needed to identify more effective primes for the respective population of interest.
... Responses to survey questions can be biased, in particular, if they relate to self-reported probabilities of future events. Examples include the anchoring bias of unfolding bracket questions(Hurd et al., 1998;Hurd, 1999) and problems of focal responses(Gan, Hurd, and McFadden, 2005). ...
Based on a unique data set of driving behavior we test whether private information in driving characteristics has significant effects on contract choice and risk in automobile insurance. We define a driving factor based on overall distance driven, number of car rides, and speeding. Using local weather conditions, we account for the endogeneity of the driving factor. While this driving factor has an effect on risk, there is no significant evidence for selection effects in the level of third‐party liability and first‐party insurance coverage.
... The student data were collected via a survey that was handed out to the students to fill out in the first week of the semester. The data collection in the beginning of semester was to develop a predictive model while minimizing survey-based biases, such as anchoring and/or acquiescence [26], which are commonly found in survey data. The data were collected from the fall 2009 semester to the fall 2016 semester, with the first two semesters in fall 2009 and spring 2010, consisting of 151 students, used to strictly develop the predictive analytics model. ...
The application of predictive analytics in higher education has increasingly gained acceptance and interest over the years. In this study, a predictive model is developed to map students’ non-cognitive skills against their class performance. Our predictive analytics model identified the non-cognitive skills that predicted new students’ class performance based on the dataset collected early in the semester. Based on the predictive analytics results, tailored teaching to improve students’ non-cognitive skills was offered in a required class designed for undergraduate business students. The improvement in the average final semester grade for students in the tailored-taught classes based on our predicted analytics approach was 9%, which was higher than that of the class grade taught without the approach. The study finding also demonstrates a long-term, sustainable positive effect to the students with the predictive analytics approach.
... The work of Hurd (1999) has shown, in studies carried out with people to check the anchoring bias in real estate assessment, that the non-experimental data in eight categories of assets, and the experimental data on real estate values, presented anchoring effects. ...
The objective of this work was to analyze, by means of an experiment, if the type (positive or negative) and the level (simple or complex) of economic-financial information influence the anchoring effect of accountants and managers in a process of managerial decision-making. To do so, an experimental methodology targeting a sample of 86 Accountants, 68 Managers and 118 people with different professional activities (control group) was used. The results showed, in the first test without differentiation of factors (type and level), that about 96% of the participants have the anchoring effect, leaning towards minimum and maximum estimates of sales revenue, operating expenditure and result. In addition, the ANOVA and the Approximate Permutation Test brought significant evidence that the anchoring effect in minimum projections can be influenced by the type of information , not being significant for anchoring in maximum projections and for the level of information on both estimates (minimum and maximum). Finally, the conclusion is that positive information increases the anchoring effect and negative information decreases the anchoring effect in minimum estimates in relation to the low anchor.
... A well-documented example is the "unfolding brackets" technique. While this question design can successfully reduce survey non-response, it introduces anchoring effects that might distort responses significantly (see, Hurd, 1999). Similarly, in questions on subjective expectations about future income, health conditions, or survival probabilities, the format and the wording of questions can influence responses heavily (i.e., ...
Scales are a commonly used method for measuring variables in media and communication research. As researchers use scales designed in previous studies, they may find it necessary to alter the scale to fit the subjects or research conditions. The current study sought to explore the effects of these alterations by comparing scores on two scales when response options were changed. When response options were changed, significant differences occurred in the way subjects scored on the scales. This suggests that such alterations need to be carefully considered when designing a study. Findings from this study are especially beneficial for researchers collecting data for online instruments and organizational advancements.
... Respondents who are willing to provide interval data can do so. Those who are unwilling to respond to questions eliciting point responses are asked whether the quantity of interest lies above or below a sequence of specified thresholds (see Juster and Suzman (1995) orHurd (1999)). Probabilistic elicitation of facts offers another route for improvement of survey research practice. ...
In this article, we consider the collection of novel subjective data on family processes of schooling decisions. In particular, we review recent progress on survey measurement of expectations, information, and locus of decision of American families within the context of secondary schooling, and we discuss possible future developments by providing concrete examples from recent exploratory efforts. We argue that collection of data on adolescents' and parents' perceptions of the available school options and the application-and-admission rules, their subjective expectations about short- and long-term consequences of alternative choices, and their assessments of the locus of decision making within families could greatly enhance economic modeling and contribute to effective econometric analysis of schooling decisions. (JEL C83, D19, D79, D83, D84, I21, I26, J24)
... For example, if respondents believe their behavior is below or above average, they respectively over-or underreport their actual actions, ranging from exercise (Tourangeau et al., 1997) to income levels (Moore et al., 1999). Other examples of social desirability and acquiescence in self-reports on personal and sensitive issues are abound (Hurd 1999;Tourangeau & Yan, 2007, Van Soest & Hurd, 2008, Krumpal, 2012. To lower the incidence of evasive responses, recent work has focused on response-elicitation methods that protect the privacy of the respondent. ...
The conventional randomized response design is unidimensional in the sense that it measures a single dimension of a sensitive attribute, like its prevalence, frequency, magnitude, or duration. This paper introduces a multidimensional design characterized by categorical questions that each measure a different aspect of the same sensitive attribute. The benefits of the multidimensional design are (i) a substantial gain in power and efficiency, and the potential to (i
i) evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the model, and (i
i
i) test hypotheses about evasive response biases in case of a misfit. The method is illustrated for a two-dimensional design measuring both the prevalence and the magnitude of social security fraud.
... Owners' subjective valuations in surveys are prone to problems related to cognitive complexity of the asset-valuation process (Hurd, 1999), and to biases related to survey and item non-response (e.g., Groves et al., 2002). There is much variation in the awareness of respondents who are asked to estimate the value of their dwellings relative to the housing market generally and the price level in the neighborhood of their dwellings specifically. ...
Owners' valuations of dwelling prices are central in construction of price indices, empirical research of housing markets and households' economic behavior. Previous studies show that, on average, owners tend to overestimate the value of their dwellings by 5% relative to market valuation. We analyze the variation of the bias over the distribution of dwelling sale prices, using a unique dataset of more than 22,000 observations from Israel's Household Expenditure Survey, from 1997 to 2008, merged with the national sample of housing sale transactions by census tract. We find that self-reported estimates of dwelling values are, on average, 27% higher than the mean market prices of houses in the corresponding census tracts. Strikingly, the valuations of inexpensive and costly dwellings are biased in different directions: estimates reported by people who occupy dwellings in the lowest eight deciles of the price distribution are upward-biased, whereas those who live in the most expensive dwellings more typically understate the value of their homes. The self-reported valuation bias is systematically associated with owner's traits as well as with dwelling and neighborhood characteristics. The frequency of dwelling sales in the respondent's tract was found to have an effect on the self-reported valuation bias.
... The HRS introduced innovative methods to measure key economic concepts, most notably with the use of unfolding brackets to reduce measurement error on wealth (Juster and Smith, 1997;Hurd, 1999), improvement in measures of income from assets (Hurd, Juster and Smith, 2003) and the introduction of subjective probabilities to capture beliefs about factors such as mortality risk, work expectations, and bequests that enter into forward-looking models of life cycle behavior under uncertainty (Hurd and McGarry, 1995). The HRS also provided for the first time detailed measures of health, health service utilization, family structure and intergenerational transfers along with detailed economic measures to permit comprehensive models of the causes and consequences of retirement behavior. ...
... Examples include the anchoring bias of unfolding bracket questions (Hurd et al., 1998;Hurd, 1999) and problems of focal responses (Gan et al., 2005). These survey response biases could then partially explain the relation between self-reported information and both contract choice and realized risk. ...
We provide novel insights into the effects of private information in automobile insurance. Based on a unique data set of driving behavior we find direct evidence that private information has significant effects on contract choice and risk. The number of car rides (controlling for the distance driven) and the relative distance driven on weekends are significant risk factors. While the number of car rides and average speeding are negatively related to the level of third-party liability coverage, the number of car rides and the relative distance driven at night are positively related to the level of first-party insurance coverage. These results indicate multiple and counteracting effects of private information based on risk preferences and driving behavior.
... Non-market anchoring effects have also received attention in the broader literature on survey design. For example, efforts to reduce non-response to sensitive numeric questions, such as income, have made use of bracketed ranges of incomes, and there is evidence that these bracket values can anchor responses(Hurd 1999). ...
... 4.9. There may also be some sort of acquiescence bias, whereby some respondents give high ratings to all subjective assessments (Hurd, 1999), so that the SWB questions and the creativity questions are highly correlated. More causal research is needed on the relationship between self-reported, peer-assessed and objective levels of creativity and SWB levels. ...
... Questions with unfolding brackets were used to recover non-response on the questions about income, assets and other variables that asked for monetary amounts. This technique has been applied in the U.S. Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) with random entry-point, and the advantages of the strategy to reduce non-response in financial questions has been reported in the literature (Hurd 1998, Hurd 1999. Hurd shows that the point of entry of the bracket questions affects the respondents' answers on income and may bias the distribution of the financial variables, thus a random entry point is recommended. ...
Research supported by NIA grant no. 18016, Mexican Health and Aging Study (B.Soldo, P.I.). We acknowledge assistance from Yyannú Cruz from the University of Maryland in the analysis of the data and construction of tables. Note: A first draft of this report was produced with date of August 8, 2003, to accompany version 1 of the imputed data. The only change made in version 2 is that revisions were made to the total household consumption variable, which changed slightly the imputed values for the total assets variables as well. Abstract The report describes the levels of non-response and the imputation procedure used in the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS/ENASEM) 2001, to assign an exact amount to questions on economic value that had a non-response, o a response using unfolding brackets. A multiple imputation technique, involving the regression sequencing method with a SAS-based software routine (IVEware) provided by the University of Michigan, was used on economic quantity variables such as income, assets, health care expenditures, and monetary help received.
... A potential problem with using survey data is that responses to survey questions can be biased, in particular if they relate to self-reported probabilities of future events. Examples include the anchoring bias of unfolding bracket questions (Hurd et al., 1998;Hurd, 1999) and problems of focal responses (Gan et al., 2005). These survey response biases could then partially explain the relation between self-reported information and both contract choice and realized risk. ...
We provide novel insights into the effects of private information in automobile insurance. Our analysis is based on telematic data of insured cars which includes detailed information about driving behavior that is unobservable to the insurance company. We find that private information about driving behavior has significant and counteracting effects on the choice of third-party liability and first-party insur-ance coverage. Yet, there is no residual correlation between the level of insurance coverage and risk. These results suggest overlapping and offsetting effects of private information based on risk preferences and driving behavior.
... We have identified four kinds of objections that can be addressed to probabilistic questions: (i) Some individuals are sensitive to framing effects. Following Tversky and Kahneman (1974), a large literature has shown that minor changes to the framing of a problem may lead to unanticipated changes in answers, especially if respondents are not well informed (e.g., Hurd, 1999). This is a problem as survey questions are supposed to elicit 'true' values, i.e., values which are independent of the elicitation technique used. ...
To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations regarding risk–return tradeoff. One of the few surveys which has elicited such expectations is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999–2001. Using the data from this survey, Dominitz and Manski find considerable heterogeneity across respondents that cannot be explained by simple models of expectations formation. Adapting a principle of dual reasoning borrowed from Kahneman, this paper classifies respondents according to their sensitivity to some pathologies. We find a substantial amount of unobserved heterogeneity between the least and the most sensitive respondents. We then sketch a model of expectations formation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... The only information available is the number of dependent children who qualify 15 The expression " acquiescence bias " (Hurd, 1999 ) or " status-quo bias " or " friendliness effect " refers to a systematic bias caused by some respondents tending to agree with whatever is presented to them. 16 If the firm with the lowest annuitization rate is excluded (company D with 26 percent), the next lowest annuitization rate is 50 percent. ...
... An additional explanation for the non-normality could also be that students were only poorly motivated to reflect critically on the questions of the questionnaire after having participated in the relatively long experiment of one hour. Furthermore, biases of social desirability (Edwards, 1990) or of acquiescence (Hurd, 1999;Paulhaus, 1991) might also be reasons for the non-normal distributions we found. The subjective impressions of the researchers, who attended the experiments as observers and who organized the correct filling out of the questionnaires, found that for constructs, that are quite easily observable like equal participations, the turn taking was not as balanced as respondents reported and that there was a difference between the respondents' exposed theories (written or oral self-descriptions of one's/an organization's behaviour, values, beliefs) and the ones in use (those more implicit values, beliefs, and assumptions manifested in personal/organizational practice) (Argyris & Schön, 1978). ...
This paper sheds light on the communication process through which experts and decision makers integrate their domain specific knowledge in decision making situations and argues for the benefit of software-supported visualization of contributions. Understanding both decision making and knowledge integration as communicative processes, we present a short review of literature on the concept of knowledge integration. Based on this review, we present a model for knowledge integration and discuss an experimental study which provides a first empirical evaluation of the model. In the proposed model, knowledge integration is reflected by the resolution of four conversational challenges – equal participation, big picture thinking, establishing common ground, and constructive conflict. We argue that the modality of the conversation impacts on the importance of the single elements of knowledge integration. We show that – when supporting conversations with an interactive visualization tool –- conversation partners rely more on the construction of the big picture and of the common ground, and less on conflict and equal participation. Furthermore, the handling of conflict is more constructive than in the nonsupported situation. An experimental study tests and confirms both the model for knowledge integration and the moderation effect of the use of the interactive visual tool.
... In recent years, analysis of the unfolding bracket categories and their relationship to the continuous data category has undergone a substantial change. What has basically taken place is that some researchers have become persuaded that various types of potential biases in the treatment of unfolding bracket cases need to be corrected if the data are to be regarded as unbiased (Hurd, 1999; Soest and Hurd, 2003). The kinds of considerations that these researchers worry about are known as " entry point " or " anchoring " bias, or as " acquiescence " bias. ...
A characteristic feature of survey data on household wealth is the high incidence of missing data—roughly one in three respondents who report owning an asset are unable or unwilling to provide an estimate of the exact amount of their holding. A partial solution to that problem is to devise a series of questions that put the respondent’s holdings into a quantitative range (less than x, more than x, or what?). These quantitative ranges are called unfolding brackets, and they represent a survey innovation that aims to improve the quality of wealth data by substituting range data for completely missing data.
In this paper, we examine the effect of unfolding brackets on the quality of HRS wealth data. Special attention is given to the impact of unfolding bracket entry points on the distribution of asset holdings in HRS 1998. Although there is a small positive relationship between mean asset holdings and entry point, there are many cases where that relationship does not hold. In general, our conclusion is that entry point bias problems are not a major concern in the evaluation of quality in the 1998 HRS wealth data.
... The former phenomenon is known as anchoring bias (even though it is also related to acquiesence bias), the latter is often referred to as bracketing effects. In the context of survey questions on economic quantities, bias in the responses to unfolding brackets questions induced by the cognitive processes governing survey response behavior has received some attention; see Hurd et al. (1998) and Hurd (1999). However, response bias that may arise in range-card questions due to bracketing effects has been neglected so far in the economics literature. ...
In households surveys, quantities of interest are frequently elicited using categorized (range-card) formats rather than open-ended questions. One advantage of this format is that is typically reduces item non-response. Unfortunately, results from research in social psychology suggest that the choice of bracket values in range-card questions is likely to influence responses. As yet, there is not much known about the effects of bracketing bias on the measurement of economic quantities and regression analysis. This paper reports evidence on existence and size of bracketing bias based on data from controlled survey experiments. I also discuss strategies for avoiding bracketing bias in household surveys.
... Apparently, some people are willing to provide vague financial information but not detailed figures, but others are unwilling to provide either sort of information. Hurd (1999) noted another drawback to this approach. He argued that the bracketing questions are subject to acquiescence bias, leading to anchoring effects (with the amount mentioned in the initial bracketing question affecting the final answer). ...
Psychologists have worried about the distortions introduced into standardized personality measures by social desirability bias. Survey researchers have had similar concerns about the accuracy of survey reports about such topics as illicit drug use, abortion, and sexual behavior. The article reviews the research done by survey methodologists on reporting errors in surveys on sensitive topics, noting parallels and differences from the psychological literature on social desirability. The findings from the survey studies suggest that misreporting about sensitive topics is quite common and that it is largely situational. The extent of misreporting depends on whether the respondent has anything embarrassing to report and on design features of the survey. The survey evidence also indicates that misreporting on sensitive topics is a more or less motivated process in which respondents edit the information they report to avoid embarrassing themselves in the presence of an interviewer or to avoid repercussions from third parties.
Objetivo: avaliar se os hábitos alimentares maternos relatados durante a gestação influenciam a ingestão de sacarose das crianças nos primeiros dois anos de vida. Sujeitos e método: participaram da pesquisa 204 díades mãe-filho acompanhadas por um programa de atenção odontológica materno-infantil em uma cidade no sul do Brasil. As variáveis independentes foram obtidas por meio dos prontuários odontológicos disponibilizados pelo programa. Os hábitos alimentares maternos foram coletados durante a gestação e a ingestão diária de sacarose pelas crianças foi baseada em um questionário alimentar de frequência, dicotomizado em < 4 vezes/ dia e ≥ 4 vezes/dia. A análise multivariada foi realizada com modelos de regressão de Poisson, com variância robusta para estimar a razão de prevalência e os intervalos de confiança de 95%. Resultados: a prevalência do consumo de sacarose nos primeiros dois anos de vida, com uma elevada ingestão de sacarose (≥ 4 vezes/dia), foi detectada em 90,69% das crianças. Após o ajuste, o desfecho (alta ingestão de sacarose) foi 10% maior para as crianças cujas mães relataram beber bebida açucarada para satisfazer sua sede durante a gestação [RP = 1,10 (IC95%: 1,02-1,18)]. Conclusões: a maioria das crianças apresentou alta ingestão de sacarose em idade precoce. A triagem de mulheres grávidas para consumo de bebidas açucaradas pode ser uma maneira possível de reconhecer crianças em risco futuro de alta ingestão de sacarose na primeira infância.
A growing body of scholarship on the political and economic subordination of women in the Muslim world has argued that widespread patriarchal attitudes toward women’s roles in public life can be ameliorated by offering progressive reinterpretations of Islamic scriptures. In this article, we explore this hypothesis with a large-scale survey experiment conducted among adult Egyptians in late 2013. In the study, a subset of respondents were exposed to an argument in favor of women’s political equality that was grounded in the Qur’ān, Islam’s holiest text. We found that this group was significantly more willing to express approval of female political leadership than those exposed to a non-religious argument in favor of women’s eligibility for political leadership. A further analysis of conditional treatment effects suggests that the religious justification for female political leadership was more likely to elicit agreement among less educated and less pious respondents, and when delivered by women and targeted at men. Our findings suggest that Islamic discourse, so often used to justify the political exclusion of women, can also be used to help empower them.
Rationality is a complex behavioral theory that can be parsed into statements about preferences, perceptions, and process. This paper looks at the evidence on rationality that is provided by behavioral experiments, and argues that most cognitive anomalies operate through errors in perception that arise from the way information is stored, retrieved, and processed, or through errors in process that lead to formulation of choice problems as cognitive tasks that are inconsistent at least with rationality narrowly defined. The paper discusses how these cognitive anomalies influence economic behavior and measurement, and their implications for economic analysis.
Large-scale data collection has become the kernel of the growth of knowl- edge in the social sciences. Nowhere is this more evident than in research in the demography of aging and the life course, where scientific progress has been stimulated and sustained by complementary longitudinal studies of aging populations. In this chapter, we review the history, organization, and design of two of these public resources, the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Recent innova- tions in each of these studies hold promise for major advances in knowl- edge about the demography, economics, sociology, and epidemiology of ag- ing. The stories of the WLS and HRS highlight important clues about the creation of systems of continuing surveys to inform science and public policy.
Despite a national goal for every building to achieve net-zero energy by 2050 and despite exemplary projects proving the technical
and economic feasibility of much better energy performance, commercial buildings in the USA today use more energy per square
foot than they ever have. Decisions made during planning, design, and construction (delivery) of commercial buildings appear
systematically irrational, not maximizing utility for designers, occupants, or society. In other fields, notably economics,
improved understanding of cognitive biases like “loss aversion” and “anchoring” has helped to explain seemingly irrational
decision making. Related work has examined these cognitive biases for energy decisions made in an occupied building. Less
clear is the role these cognitive biases play in the high-impact, long-term energy decisions made during commercial building
delivery. As an initial step towards addressing this gap in understanding, this paper outlines key energy decisions in commercial
building delivery and shows how cognitive biases may impact these decisions. A suggested approach to study these biases, and
to design policies that address them, is provided. By highlighting these potential cognitive biases, based on an understanding
of the building delivery process, this paper aims to engage those with relevant expertise in the behavioral and social sciences
to help address the decision making that is preventing progress towards improved energy performance in commercial buildings.
KeywordsBuildings–Design–Construction–Cognitive bias–Irrationality
This paper tests for a number of survey effects in the elicitation of expenditure items. In particular we examine the extent to which individuals use features of the expenditure question to construct their answers. We test whether respondents interpret question wording as researchers intend and examine the extent to which prompts, clarifications and seemingly arbitrary features of survey design influence expenditure reports. We find that over one quarter of respondents have difficulty distinguishing between you and your household when making expenditure reports; that respondents report higher pro-rata expenditure when asked to give responses on a weekly as opposed to monthly or annual time scale; that respondents give higher estimates when using a scale with a higher mid-point; and that respondents report higher aggregated expenditure when categories are presented in a disaggregated form. In summary, expenditure reports are constructed using convenient rules of thumb and available information, which will depend on the characteristics of the respondent, the expenditure domain and features of the survey question. It is crucial to further account for these features in ongoing surveys.
The life cycle/permanent income hypothesis (LCPIH) makes two postulates: people behave with rational expectations, and people do not have self-control problems. If either or both of these postulates do not apply, we cannot obtain a testable implication of the LCPIH. We use Japanese panel data that include responses to self-reported and retrospective questions to elicit individual characteristics such as forward-looking behavior, experience of self-control problems, and use of commitment devices to overcome self-control problems. First, we test the rational expectations hypothesis and find that it holds for the whole sample. We then test the LCPIH implication and find that consumption does not change in response to expected income changes, which we restrict to fit the assumptions of the LCPIH. This result indicates that the LCPIH is a convincing model to account for the behavior of rational consumers who have rational expectations and no self-control problems. Our results also imply that responses to self-reported and retrospective questions are not meaningless when eliciting information on household characteristics.
We use a unique dataset on individual retirement decisions in Swiss pension funds to analyze the choice between an annuity and a lump sum at retirement. Our analysis suggests the existence of an "acquiescence bias", meaning that a majority of retirees chooses the standard option offered by the pensions fund or suggested by common practice. Small levels of accumulated pension capital are much more likely to be withdrawn as a lump sum, suggesting a potential moral hazard behavior or a magnitude effect. We hardly find evidence for adverse selection effects in the data. Single men, for example, whose money's worth of an annuity is considerably below the corresponding value of married men, are not more likely to choose the capital option.
To predict choice behavior, the standard practice of economists has been to infer decision processes from data on observed choices. When decision makers act with partial information, economists typically assume that persons form probabilistic expectations for unknown quantities and maximize expected utility. Observed choices may be consistent with many alternative specifications of preferences and expectations, so researchers commonly assume particular sorts of expectations. It would be better to measure expectations in the form called for by modern economic theory; that is, subjective probabilities. Data on expectations can be used to relax or validate assumptions about expectations. Since the early 1990's, economists have increasingly undertaken to elicit from survey respondents probabilistic expectations of significant personal events. This article discusses the history underlying the new literature, describes some of what has been learned thus far, and looks ahead towards making further progress. Copyright The Econometric Society 2004.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.