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Perceptions of climate variability
and dairy farmer adaptations
in Corangamite Shire,
Victoria, Australia
Iain R. Elgin-Stuczynski
CBRE Agribusiness, Melbourne, Australia, and
Simon Batterbury
Department of Resource Management and Geography,
University of Melbourne, Carlton, Australia
Abstract
Purpose – The article surveys dairy farmers’ lay knowledge of climate change and the adaptation
strategies they have implemented to respond to climatic and economic drivers. Dairy farming is highly
dependent on local weather and climate. The case study is in Western Victoria, Australia, part of a
major dairy farming region that contributes 26 per cent of national milk production and 86 per cent of
the country’s dairy exports. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach – This study utilised a survey and semi-structured interviews
in Corangamite Shire, to document dairy farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and the adaptation
strategies they have implemented, compared to meteorological data collected on climate variability in
the recent past.
Findings – Farmers in this region perceive a change in rainfall and temperature broadly in line with
meteorological records. Those that have experienced a greater degree of climate variability in drier
regions were found to perceive it more accurately. Almost all respondents had already made changes
to their dairy businesses, but in doing so only a small percentage were responding directly to seasonal
variability or to longer term changes (9 and 15 per cent, respectively); the majority said they were
responding to changing economic conditions in the industry.
Originality/value – A primary survey of dairy farming adds to knowledge of how climate
variability is perceived, and how it is adapted to in a region heavily reliant on rainfall for its prime
economic activity.
Keywords Climate variability, Climate adaptation, Corangamite Shire, Victoria, Australia,
Dairy farming, Farmer perceptions
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
In the local authority district known as Corangamite Shire, Victoria, south-east
Australia (Figure 1), the success of dairy farming is intrinsically linked to the economic
and social well-being of the region (WestVic Dairy, 2010). Some 22 per cent of the
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at
www.emeraldinsight.com/1756-8692.htm
The authors would like to thank all the survey respondents for their kind participation and
three reviewers. For assistance with survey distribution; Murray Goulburn Cooperative Co. Ltd,
Warrnambool Cheese and Butter, and West Vic Dairy. For data and advice; Stephen Commadeur
at Australian Agribusiness Group, and Helen Chenoweth and Graeme Anderson at the Victorian
Department of Primary Industries.
International Journal of Climate
Change Strategies and Management
Vol. 6 No. 1, 2014
pp. 85-107
qEmerald Group Publishing Limited
1756-8692
DOI 10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2013-0039
Perceptions
of climate
variability
85
Shire’s population work in dairying, and it contributes to Victoria’s dairy exports that
were valued at AU $1.96 billion in 2010-2011 (Fravel and Ridley, 2012). Corangamite is
a region of 4,404 km
2
with a population of approximately 16,000 (ABS, 2011).
Most dairy farms in Corangamite Shire are not irrigated, and pasture quality relies
on adequate precipitation, which increases from north to south (Figure 2) (DSE, 2008;
Phelps et al., 2012). Projections from the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
suggest that temperatures are expected to rise by approximately 18C by 2030 across
this region, whilst precipitation is expected to decline by 5 per cent (Watterson et al.,
2007). Such expected changes in the climate could have significant negative impacts
upon all agricultural enterprises, in terms of production and profitability (deVoil et al.,
2006; Hayman et al., 2008; Howden and Jones, 2001; Jones and Hennessy, 2000; Luo et al.,
2007; White et al., 2003)[1]. Future adaptations to climate risk must involve managing
fluctuations in rainfall and temperature, and climatic uncertainty that may exceed
historical patterns (Bryant et al., 2000; Bradshaw et al., 2004; Buys et al., 2012;
Mu
¨ller et al., 2011).
This article explores the current relationship between dairying and climate in the
region. We explain how dairy farmers perceive recent (post-2001) variations in the
climate within which they operate. Meteorological observations are compared with
participants’ responses on how they perceive climate is changing. A second aim is to
ask how farmers have adapted their material practices deriving from these perceptions,
where information came from to make these decisions, and their perceived degree of
success.
We conclude with a simplified framework for understanding agricultural
adaptation to climate change in this industry.
Figure 1.
Victorian dairy
farming regions Note: Corangamite Shire is identified within the Western Victoria Dairy region
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2. Climate change and variability in the region
The Australian agricultural sector has always had to adapt and adjust its practices to a
harsh, highly variable and unforgiving climate (Stokes and Howden, 2011). There is
current evidence that anthropogenic climate change is already impacting negatively on
the agricultural sector, and a robust debate about future trends (Hughes, 2003; IPCC, 2007).
In south-west Victoria, Watterson et al. (2007) expect a 1-1.58C temperature increase
by 2070 and a 5-10 per cent decline in annual precipitation. The Forest Fire
Figure 2.
Corangamite Shire and the
study’s three sub-regions
Perceptions
of climate
variability
87
Danger Index (FFDI), a function of weather patterns and vegetation condition,
increased from 1973 to 2007 at both stations in closest proximity to the Corangamite
Shire: Melbourne (VIC) and Mount Gambier (SA). The expected number of FFDI days
of very high and extreme danger is projected to increase under all emission scenarios
produced for the years 2020 and 2050 at the Melbourne site (Hennessy et al., 2005).
The region suffers periodic “agricultural drought”, most recently in the mid-2000s
(BoM, 1967; CSIRO, 2007; Mpelasoka et al., 2008). Burke et al. (2006), using the Palmer
Drought Severity Index, suggests that whilst the incidence of drought did not increase in
relative terms over the 1952-1998 period in south-west Victoria, there is a greater
likelihood of drought incidence over the period 2000-2046, with a sharper increase
thereafter. Projections by Mpelasoka et al. (2008) suggest that under various climate
models and under low emission scenarios the incidence of drought in south-west
Victoria would remain steady or decrease to 2030, whilst under high emission scenarios
it would increase by 0-20 per cent.
It is also expected that climate variability will increase in future (Hennessy et al.,
2008). The Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (RIRDC) expects
that Victoria will face some of the highest increases in seasonal variability in Australia,
expected to present as increased incidence of drought and flood events (Barber, 2009).
Dairy Australia (2007), the national representative body for the dairy industry, list
seven expected impacts that future expected climate change could have in the region.
These are:
(1) higher pasture growth in winter due to warmer temperatures and fewer frosts,
but;
(2) reduced pasture growth overall due to lower annual water availability[2];
(3) earlier harvest and sowing times for summer crops due to earlier warmer
temperatures;
(4) longer growing seasons that will favour perennial and/or drought tolerant
pasture species;
(5) increased water stress due to declining precipitation which may in turn reduce
water for dairy wash-down[3];
(6) increased heat-stress for livestock due to warmer temperatures; and
(7) higher temperature and lower rainfall to increase the competitiveness of C4
pasture species at the expense of C3 species[4].
Combined, these impacts are expected to have a significant impact. Across Victoria;
a 5 per cent contraction in dairy production by 2030 is estimated in the event of no
major adaptation actions being taken (and 10 per cent by 2050) (Gunasekera et al., 2007;
based on models by Cline (2007)).
3. How farmers adapt to climate change and variability
Climate stimuli vary significantly on a regional scale, but, also on a local scale
across individual farms and landscapes (Bryant et al., 1997). Adaptation to local
conditions, therefore, are individually tailored, although our surveys demonstrate some
commonalities. Variation can be explained by the intrinsic heterogeneity in managerial
acumen, entrepreneurial capabilities, family circumstances, decision-making styles,
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personal and community values and the strength of professional networks
(Bryant et al., 2000; Risbey et al., 1999). Some farmers and their workforce are more
aware than others of change, and thus more willing to progress alterations to dairying
practices.
Risbey et al. (1999) propose a “bottom-up” method of investigating agricultural
adaptation to climate variability and change, with a strong focus on farmer perception
of climate variability and individual adaptation and decision-making. Their study is
appealing, and has been taken up by other authors (Smit and Skinner, 2002, Smit and
Wandel, 2006). They interrogate what adaptation decisions farmers have actually
made in response to a changing climate. This is part of a long tradition of research in
geography, anthropology and other disciplines based on fieldwork in farming systems,
and monitoring of farmer behaviour in response to climatic and economic stimuli
(Batterbury and Mortimore, 2013; Mertz et al., 2009; Mortimore, 1989, pp. 4-6; Richards,
2010; Smit et al., 2000).
Risbey et al. (1999) suggest that whilst farmers are aware of macro-scale change,
most on-farm decisions are made in response to micro-level changes like a decline in
on-farm rainfall[5]. Short-term responses, like buying in extra water for livestock,
are termed tactical responses. Longer term changes are strategic; resulting in an
observable change in farm operation beyond a single season (Smit et al., 1996).
WIDCORP (2009), Schwartz et al. (2011) and Kiem et al. (2010) investigated whether
Victorian farmers perceive changes in the climate, and how they have implemented
changes in their businesses. The latter study found farmers possess a great adaptive
ability due to their innate inclination for experimentation, although the farmers deemed
most financially and socially vulnerable were also the least likely to alter their
production systems. Farmers were primarily focussed on economic adaptations to
enable them to “hold on”, and the majority were not adapting their business to a future
shaped by a changing climate, prioritising the short-term (Hogan et al., 2011b). Victoria
has recently experienced drought-to-flood conditions which have compounded
difficulties for the sector (Rickards, 2012) resulting in some strategic adaptations –
altering crop varieties, or looking for more off-farm income sources. Ironically, effective
adaptation to drought, which has included buying farmland in wetter regions as a form
of security, was found to have reduced adaptive capacity to extreme wet periods that
have occurred over the last five years.
A focus on individual adaptation strategies, the focus of our surveys, does not
suggest that collective or co-operative adaptive actions should be overlooked.
In Corangamite, farmers do or course cooperate, for example on stream fencing, even if
most dairy concerns are owner-occupier concerns. Bryant et al. (2000) suggest that
farmers with weak social networks struggle to implement adaptations that require
group co-operation.
4. Research methods and locations
Against this complex range of climatic factors affecting the dairying sector,
we conducted a mixed-methods study in 2012, utilising a mail-out and online survey
to 80 farmers in Corangamite Shire, supplemented with ten semi structured interviews.
Participants were selected based upon the criteria of location, age, and herd size. All were
reliant on dairying for more than 90 per cent of their income. The survey questions, first
piloted and refined, were divided into five themes: demographics, perceptions,
Perceptions
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89
management practices, climate change and the role of government, adapted from
Risbey et al. (1999). Interviews followed the same five themes. The majority of interviews
(80 per cent) were conducted with both heads of households.
We compared the sample with Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on dairy
farming in Corangamite Shire (ABS, 2008) and a recent Dairying for Tomorrow survey
of current dairy farming practices[6]. Three sub-regions of the Shire were defined (SR1,
SR2, SR3), based upon average annual rainfall isohyets (Figure 2). Results were
tabulated using descriptive statistics and adaptation strategies were classified and
compared to the literature.
Northern reaches of the Shire (SR1) are drier than those in the far south-east (SR3),
whilst average temperature is fairly similar across the region. Almost all dairying is
concentrated in the wetter regions to the south of the main transport artery the Princes
Highway, which dissects SR1. Pasture yields vary from approximately 15 t DM/ha/y in
the Otway (SR3), to about 6 t DM/ha/y in the north of SR1. Modelling by research teams
suggests the prevalent ryegrass pasture can sustain temperature increases of up to 28C
warming with adequate productivity (Cullen et al., 2012).
In line with an aging population of dairy farm owners in rural Victoria, over a third
of the survey and interview participants have spent more than 25 years on their
current farm, with over 60 per cent having resided at least a decade (Table I). Almost
75 per cent of survey respondents have been dairy farmers for over 25 years. Despite
the presence of multi-generational dairy households there is significant purchase and
sale of agricultural land in the Shire, reflecting the changing fortunes of the sector and
the intentions of its participants. A farm herd size of between 200 and 499 cows was
the most common (slightly above the national average; Nettle and Lamb, 2010). Very
few participants ran herds larger or smaller than this. Milk is sold to several major
dairy companies, and then packaged and distributed by the dairy.
Climatic data, reported here in summary form, included monthly temperature and
rainfall data, aggregated into annual and seasonal datasets and then graphed as ten
and 30 year moving averages[7].
5. Results and discussion
We first explore the links between farmer perceptions of changing seasonal conditions,
compared to the meteorological record. The second sub-section will establish how
farmers are actually adjusting their businesses to their perceptions of climate
variability and change.
Time on current property (years)
Survey sample
(% by time on farm)
SR1
(%)
SR2
(%)
SR3
(%)
Interview sample
(%)
0-5 4 – 6 – –
5-10 9 25 6 3 –
10-20 13 31 3 17 20
20-40 50 31 52 60 70
40 þ24 13 33 20 10
Total surveys ( þinterviews).
Five more had unknown postcodes
14
(þ4)
31
(þ4)
30
(þ2)
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
Table I.
Time on current property;
distribution of survey
and interview
respondents
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Assessing farmer’s perceptions of climate variability and change
How farmers perceive a change in signal, in this case climate stimuli, plays a significant
role in how they may then adjust their farming to adapt to this change (Risbey et al.,
1999). Some 36 per cent of farmers surveyed perceived a change in rainfall over the past
decade. Conversely 38 per cent stated that they had not noticed a change, with the
remainder undecided on the issue (Figure 3). Across the three sub-regions,
SR2 respondents showed the best detection of changing rainfall patterns (52 per cent
of those surveyed), followed closely by SR1 (43 per cent). Only 30 per cent of SR3
respondents, living in the wettest region, thought that it had become drier over the last
ten years. According to two SR3 farmers:
Interviewer: In your time on this property, 10 years, have you noticed changes in rainfall?
Respondent IC6: I think we’ve seen a cycle, a series of wet years, a series of dry years and now
a series of wet years again. We haven’t seen too many extremes, nothing outside of normal.
Interviewer: Have you noticed any change in rainfall pattern [...] as opposed to natural
variation?
IC4: I don’t consider anything to be out of the ordinary [...] we’re just in a good rainfall area.
This can be compared against those in the drier northern regions who were more
inclined to notice a change:
Interviewer: Have you noticed much change in the rainfall patterns?
IC5: Yes. In the last 10 years we’ve had a heap of failed autumns. Autumn has become a
disaster, it never used to be, you could bank on autumn. Now it is just hot and dry. My first
10 years it was never like that [...]. It just stays dry, Autumn is a nice time of the year,
but you can’t farm off no moisture. We’ve had two good ones in 12 years.
The meteorological record indicates decreasing rainfall, with ten of the 14 rain stations
showing a fall in the 30-year average annual rainfall since 2001 (Figures 4 and 5, which
distinguish between northern drier and southern wetter locations). Of these ten stations
(Figure 6), eight also displayed a rainfall total wholly below the long-term average over
the past decade, with six of these by greater than one standard deviatio n below the mean.
The stations that fall in the northern half of the Shire and in SR1 have displayed a lower
Figure 3.
Rainfall signal detection
and evaluation for whole
survey sample
Less rainfall is
beneficial to me
Rainfall patterns are
moving southwards
In the last 10 years it
has become drier
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly Disagree Disagree Neither Agree nor Disagree
Strongly AgreeAgree
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
5%
8%
16%
33%
29%
49%
22%
36%
11%
31%
17%
18%
5%
3%
3%
Perceptions
of climate
variability
91
degree of variation from the mean over the past decade (Figure 5). All bar one station
show a negative rainfall trend over the past decade, linked particularly to declining
autumn rainfall (the data shows a significant drop in autumn rainfall totals since 1991).
Among the SR2 and SR3 stations a decline in spring and winter rainfall has occurred.
Coupled with the fact that the northern regions have lower net rainfall than the south,
it comes as no surprise that SR1 respondents perceived a drop in rainfall over time
(Figure 7). In SR2, where rainfall declined by less than in SR1 , fewer respondents thought
that rainfall patterns were moving southwards and thus becoming drier. Farmers’
perceptions in SR1 (and SR2) appear to be in accordance with the meteorological data.
Figure 4.
Thirty-year averaged
annual rainfall from
southern Corangamite
Shire (SR3)
recording stations from
period 1991 to 2011
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
mm/yr
Cobden P.O.
Gelibrand River
Nullawarre
Port Campbell
Princetown
Terang
Timboon
Kolora
Camperdown
(Donalds Hill)
Note: y-axis units: millimetres (mm)
Source: BoM (2012)
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Figure 6.
Location of raingauge
station data shown in
Figures 4 and 5
Figure 5.
Thirty-year
averaged annual rainfall
from northern
Corangamite Shire (SR1)
recording stations from
period 1991 to 2011
550
600
650
700
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Berrybank
Lismore
Skipton P.O.
Derrinallum P.O.
Derrinallum Craigmore
Camperdown Ettrick
Darlington (Ware St.)
mm/yr
Note: y-axis units: millimetres (mm)
Source: BoM (2012)
Perceptions
of climate
variability
93
But in SR3, where rainfall is much higher, the majority of farmers were unable to detect
the fall in average rainfall in recent years. Mortimore (1989, p. 50) suggests that under
similar drought conditions in Africa, farmers in relatively more marginal regions have a
greater need to react to changes compared to those in less variable ones, even if the losses
incurred across both regions are proportionally similar.
Turning to temperature, mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in
Corangamite Shire increased between 1891 and 2011, with the difference between
maximum and minimum growing over time (Figures 8 and 9, showing combined
datasets). Over this period maximum temperature has risen by a little over one degree.
Farmer perceptions of these temperature changes were not always accurate
(Figure 10). Approximately 40 per cent of all respondents across the Shire stated that
temperature patterns have not changed in the past decade, whilst 29 per cent correctly
stated that they have increased (Figure 10). Those in the north were more inclined to
state the change than their southern counterparts. Of interest are the 89 per cent of
respondents who believed that were temperatures to increase, this would be negative
for their operations. In fact farmers struggled to perceive if temperature has increased
in all regions:
Figure 7.
Rainfall signal detection
and evaluation for SR1
7%
7%
14%
21%
14%
50%
29%
36%
7%
43%
36%
21%
Less rainfall is
beneficial to me
Rainfall patterns are
moving southwards
In the last 10 years it
has become drier
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
Strongly Disagree Disagree
AgreeNeither Agree nor Disagree
Figure 8.
Mean annual maximum
temperature 1891-2011
from four different points
in Corangamite Shire
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011
Terang Westmere Lismore Mortlake Linear (Total)
Note: y-axis units: °C
Source: BoM (2012)
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Interviewer: Have you noticed any change in temperature patterns?
IC5: Hard to say if it is getting hotter, I don’t know about that.
Interviewer: As far as temperatures go, have you seen at all any changes?
IC1: No, no, it has been cold in July for the last 35 years.
Interviewer: Have you noticed any change in [temperature] patterns?
IC2: I think climate change is taking place basically over 100 years or more, so it is very hard
for me to pick it up from just normal variation in the seasons.
Farmers are finding it difficult to differentiate between change in the signal (increasing
temperature) and noise (temperature variation). This is expected, as temperatures have
risen by only a small amount over the past 25 years.
Some 20 per cent of individuals agreed that fire risk and the incidence of drought had
increased over the past ten years, whilst 31 per cent said that extreme weather events
have become more frequent since 2001 (Figure 11). The most northern region (SR1) had
Figure 9.
Mean annual minimum
temperature 1891-2011
from four different points
in Corangamite Shire
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011
Terang Westmere Terang Mortlake Total Linear (Total)
Note: y-axis units: °C
Source: BoM (2012)
Figure 10.
Temperature signal
detection and evaluation
for whole survey sample
8%
8%
17%
33%
31%
27%
41%
24%
35%
29%
29%
24%
14%
29%
10%
5%
1%
6%
1%
In the last 10 years
it has become warmer
Temperature patterns are
moving southwards
Increasing temperatures
concern me
Increasing temperatures
are positive for me
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly Disagree Disagree Neither Agree nor Disagree
Strongly AgreeAgree
4%
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
Perceptions
of climate
variability
95
the greatest proportion of respondents who detected an increase in the incidence of
extreme weather events, followed by the central SR2 and the southerly SR3.
The drought that affected much of eastern Australia through the early to late 2000s
was particularly hard for farming families. Corangamite Shire was not as badly
affected as some northern regions of Victoria (Figure 12). Eastern Victoria escaped the
worst of the effects of a crippling 2003 drought (ABC, 2002) but in 2007 and 2009 the
dairy farming region recorded a serious deficiency in rainfall affecting livestock and
pasture. The dates of serious droughts in Victoria since 1900 are shown in Table II.
The perception is that drought management strategies have improved significantly
over the past 50 years, reducing farmers’ vulnerability. This was supported by farmer
IC7 in SR1, who had farmed through the droughts of the 1960s until the present:
IC7: I saw the 1970’s [as being] very wet, I haven’t seen anything as wet as that since [...] I don’t
think that there is anything new in droughts, there are fences through all the dried up lakes.
I remember the drought of ’68, I haven’t seen anything as dry as that since. But we can shift
fodder now to here for a cost [...] you couldn’t do that in ’68 [...] we’re better at drought
management now.
Younger farmers were more inclined to perceive a change in temperature and rainfall
patterns in accord with rainfall data, and similar findings have been noticed in other
locations (Diggs, 1991; Leviston et al., 2011; Nyanga et al., 2011). Those with smaller
holdings had more accurate perception of a chan ge in temperature: perhaps because they
need to be more “in-tune” with seasonal shifts to ensure optimal pasture production at
minimal cost (Nyanga et al., 2011). For them, buying in fodder in the event of failed
pastures could negate any profit.
Assessing farmers’ adaptations to climate variability
A major challenge for all research on climate adaptation is differentiating between
adjustments implemented by farmers in response to changing seasonal variability or
climate variability, and adjustments implemented to adapt to other drivers of change.
Of course the latter adjustments may, as a by-product, increase (or possibly reduce) the
resilience of the farm to seasonal variability (Belliveau et al., 2006). This difference is
illustrated by two farmers, IC5 and IC6 – both changed their pasture mix from annual
to perennial species over the past decade. In IC5’s case this was to increase the farm’s
Figure 11.
Extreme weather
signal detection for
whole survey sample
15%
10%
17%
32%
33%
31%
32%
22%
27%
10%
26%
14%
10%
5%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fire risk to my business has
increased in the past decade
The incidence of extreme weather events
has increased in the last 10 years
Droughts since 2002 are more
severe than in prior periods
Strongly Disagree Disagree Neither Agree nor Disagree
Strongly AgreeAgree
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
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resilience to seasonal rainfall variability, whilst for IC6 it was due to the increasing cost
of buying grain and feed supplements[8]:
Researcher: Do you see your new pasture regime as being more resilient to weather variability?
IC5: Yes, definitely, and we are counting that into [why we changed], we haven’t got
everything right [...] but we have learnt a lot on what pastures do best here [...] and the
last 8 months have been the driest on record here [...]
Figure 12.
Incidence of 1 October to
31 March drought in
Victoria, 2001-2012
2012 2011 2010
2009 2008 2007
2006 2005 2004
2003 2002 2001
Notes: Corangamite Shire is illustrated by black outline in south-west; pink: serious
deficiency in rainfall (less than tenth percentile); light red: severe deficiency in rainfall
(less than fifth percentile); solid red: lowest rainfall on record
Source: BoM (2012)
Perceptions
of climate
variability
97
Researcher: With regards to pasture growth and pasture management, have you had to
change what pasture you grow or the type of pastures you grow?
IC6: We try and stay up to date with the pastures [...] they bring out new species all the time.
We try and use them [...] we can grow more grass, and cut back on the grain bill, because the
price has gone up.
Farmers were questioned about which adjustments they have made to their dairy
business over the past decade. In total, 23 options were documented over three
categories. To overcome the difficulty in distinguishing the reasons behind these, all
adjustment scenarios presented in a survey checklist were those that had been
previously suggested by industry peak bodies, the Victorian DPI, other Australian
state bodies, and in the literature[9].
Almost all (94 per cent) of farmers surveyed stated that they had made a physical
adjustment to their business in the past decade. Some 79 per cent implemented new
practices (Figure 13 and Table III), 86 per cent altered an existing practice. The most
common new action taken was the use of seasonal forecasting technology as an aid for what
pastures to sow, and when to sow them (Figure 13). This was particularly visible among
SR2 farmers (Table III). These findings are in line with other surveys conducted in Victoria
by WIDCORP (2008) and Schwartz et al. (2011). There were also notable changes in the
pasture species grown on-farm, and in the adoption of more sustainable water use practices.
Serious rainfall deficiency Severe rainfall deficiency
Lowest rainfall on
record
1997, 1983, 1982, 1964, 1951, 1943, 1934,
1922, 1909, 1901
1985, 1968, 1944, 1942, 1936, 1921,
1920, 1915, 1912
1939, 1926
Note: Serious and severe deficiency are equivalent to less than tenth and fifth percentile rainfall,
respectively
Source: BoM (2012)
Table II.
Years when there was a
1 October to 31 March
drought in Corangamite
Shire from 1900 to 2000,
by category
Figure 13.
New management
practices implemented by
survey sample
(percentage of sample)
48%
43%
33%
17% 14% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Seasonal
forecasting
for what and
when to sow
Changed
pasture
mix
Adopted a
sustainable
water use
policy
Started to
fertilise
pastures
Stopped
fertilising/organic
pasture
management
Other
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
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Changing pasture mix (in terms of species and varieties) was the second most common
adjustment, and was often aided by agricultural extension advice. The decision by
farmers to alter their pasture species mix is an adaptive adjustment to reduced rainfall
and increased temperatures and the northern farmers led this change (Table III).
Figure 14 and Table IV show more detail on the adjustments made by a subset of the
sample who self-identified as altering their existing practices. Improving the efficiency
of water used in the twice-daily “wash-down” of the dairy is important since between
5,000 and 25,000 litres is used per wash, taking one to two hours per day (Dairy Research
and Development Corporation, 2003). Some respondents, not really distinguished by
zone, have installed new reticulating effluent ponds, using the sediment as nutrient rich
irrigation water for pasture. Such a strategy was implemented by farmer IC2 to increase
the fertiliser load on nutrient poor sandy fields and resulted in an increase in pasture
growth:
Interviewer: Would you reticulate [the effluent run-off] through an irrigation system?
IC2: Yeah, we actually have, because we are fairly high on the farm, we have a manure pond
at the highest point of the farm. The back of the farm is more sandy, and needs extra fertiliser,
and we use those areas for irrigation for effluent.
Action SR1 (%) SR2 (%) SR3 (%)
Seasonal forecasting for what and when to sow 42 52 44
Changed pasture species mix 50 43 36
Adopted a sustainable water use policy 33 33 36
Started to fertilise pastures 33 24 8
Stopped fertilising/organic pasture management 17 10 16
Other 25 19 16
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey, Q3.1
Table III.
New management
practices implemented,
by those who
implemented them over
the last ten years,
separated by sub-region
Figure 14.
Changes implemented in
existing management
practices by subset of
survey sample who
changed their
management practices
(percentage of sub-sample)
67%
35% 32% 30% 25% 20% 19% 13% 9% 9%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Improved wash-down
efficiency/recyclewash-
down water
Expanded water
storages
Harvesting pasture
earlier
Increased fertiliser load
Increased in-paddock
shade
Sowing pasture earlier
Sowing drought tolerant
pasture
Reduced fertiliser load
Reduced paddock
rotation cycle
Agro-tourism
Other
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
Perceptions
of climate
variability
99
IC2 constructed an effluent water recycling system on economic grounds:
Interviewer: And has this [effluent water recycling system] been a beneficial change for your
property?
IC2: Definitely. We have a reduce reliance on fertiliser, and buying fertiliser, the growth in
those paddocks has improved substantially, so we don’t have to buy in as much fertiliser and
we do find that some of those paddocks they take off earlier in the autumn, so in a way we
don’t start that far behind.
Interviewer: So this is more of an economic decision?
IC2: Yes.
The northern and drier sub-region was the most likely to expand water storages, in line
with their increased perception of a decline in rainfall over the past decade (Table IV).
The majority (80 per cent) of farmers who did this were aged between 35 and 54. Such
an outcome is expected due to the very high capital outlay required[10]:
Interviewer: Have you had to bolster your water storages?
IC7: We put in a couple of good sized dams for water storage, and we have probably utilised
the ones we had more than previous managers. We have a bigger supply of water now than
we previously had.
The adjustments nominated by participants have adapted farms to expected future
climate scenarios, but it is clear that these decisions are being made as a reactionary
response primarily to fluctuation in economic, not climatic stimuli (Smit et al., 2000)
(Figure 15). For example: reduced profit occurs if milk production declines. Milk
production has itself declined due to poor pasture production. Pasture production is
poor due to seasonal conditions outside the current pastures’ optimal growing
conditions. To increase milk production the farmer alters the pasture species, the
altered pasture species produced more nutritional value under current seasonal
conditions, higher quality pasture raises milk production, and higher milk production
increases profit. The farmer is most likely to state that a change in pasture mix was
implemented, with the reason behind this being because it made good financial sense,
however the underlying reason for this change was in part a variation in climate.
Action SR1 (%) SR2 (%) SR3 (%)
Improved wash-down efficiency/recycle wash-down water 69 67 67
Expanded water storages 46 33 33
Harvesting pasture earlier 31 41 25
Increased fertiliser load 31 41 21
Increased in-paddock shade 15 33 25
Sowing pasture earlier 15 30 8
Sowing drought tolerant pasture 15 30 13
Reduced fertiliser load 0 19 13
Reduced paddock rotation cycle 8 4 13
Agro-tourism 8 7 4
Other 31 19 13
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey, Q3.2
Table IV.
Changes implemented in
existing management
practices by those who
changed management
practices
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100
Inherent farmer scepticism in the region towards environmentalist claims about global
warming and its political ramifications could account for this; however in the drier SR1
there was more recognition of climate variability (Figure 15).
Respondents IC5 in SR1 shifted their pasture management from a monoculture to a
mix of pasture varieties across their farm. This adjustment reduced costs and
improved herd health. However, IC5 also noticed a change in the seasonal variability:
Interviewer: Have you noticed any change in the weather patterns?
IC5: Less reliable, more fluctuation. Hard to say if it is getting hotter, I don’t know about that.But
we’ve had really dry, really hot, really wet, really cold, really windy. It is more all over the place.
Interviewer: Is that something which has become worse in your experience?
IC5: In the last 10 years we have had a lot of failed autumns, autumn is a disaster [...]inmy
first 10 to 15 years it wasn’t like that.
The adjustment was implemented as a response to the economic stimuli of the increasing
cost of fertiliser. But utility per unit of water has increased, thereby adapting to the
expected future climate scenario. Again, a business decision can have adaptive benefits.
The rainfall data for the region certainly confirms a decline in autumn rainfall in SR1.
Smit and Skinner (2002) posit that adaptation is seldom made in response to single
factors, and that the decision to adjust a business is usually iterative and dynamic.
This is supported by this study. The nature of experimentation and iterative response
to climate variability nees to figure more in studies that link perceptions of climate to
climate adaptation (Batterbury and Mortimore, 2013; WIDCORP, 2009). In response to
a survey question on “how was [adjustment X] informed?”, there is evidence of shared
discussion and efforts:
IC1: Just word of mouth and observing the demo dairy and reading magazines that comes out
from [my milk collection co-operative].
IC2: We’re in a discussion group, so we actually are in a group with a whole lot of other
famers and we rotate visiting farms and quite often we have new things that they have tried
out, or recommendations.
IC3: I am in a local discussion group, and that information [was] readily available.
Figure 15.
The degree to which
changing seasonal
variability is noted as a
factor in changing
farming practices, by
those who made a change
to their practices
22%
21%
32%
14%
22%
14%
26%
25%
32%
29%
23%
46%
19%
36%
19%
7%
3%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Survey sample
Sub-region 1
Sub-region 2
Sub-region 3
Strongly Disagree Disagree Neither Agree nor Disagree
Strongly AgreeAgree
Source: 2012 Corangamite Shire Dairy Farmers Survey
Perceptions
of climate
variability
101
The two predominant reasons for why a change was not implemented were; financial
limitations, and a perception that the farm was already in good working order.
Financial restrictions and access to capital have played a major part in curtailing farm
adjustments across Australia (WIDCORP, 2009) and internationally (Iglesias et al.,
2007; Dyszynski, 2010; Maddison, 2006; Nyanga et al., 2011; The World Bank, 2007,
p. 200). The majority of the farmers who did not change their farming approach were in
the 35-44 age bracket, were farm owners, and less likely than the average to perceive
climate change as a threat. Hogan et al. (2011a) categorise similar farmers in Australia
as “comfortable non-adaptors”, farmers who did not see climate change as a threat,
could continue to cope with changes, and were unlikely to seek information about
adjustment options. Farmers who stated that their farm worked fine and that there was
no need to adapt, may be categorised in this way. Nettle and Lamb (2010) reinforce the
fact that Victorian dairy farmers hold varying worldviews in relation to environmental
threats and their stewardship obligations.
The final step in our study was the gathering of retrospective feedback from farmers
who have made an adjustment to their business, to see if the adaptations implemented
have been effective (Risbey et al., 1999). There was a general consensus that change has
increased profits, increased efficiency and was of benefit to their businesses. And yet,
a low proportion of the sample population deemed changing seasonal variability to
be major factor in their decisions. Fortunately following Risbey et al. (1999) it would
be expected that the majority of farmers who adjusted their business over the past
decade will have added the adaptation strategy that they implemented into their future
repertoire. It is to be expected that these strategies will play a part in future (Figure 16).
We are in agreement with anthropologist Richards (2010) who says, following
Durkheim, that:
[...] much of what farmers and farm labourers do (as opposed to what science or regulatory
authority tells them to do) is based on practical contingencies [...] or it relates to unavoidable
social responsibilities to dependants or a wider community group (Richards, 2010, p. 10).
The practical contingencies for dairying households include making a living, and so
this structures perception of, and responses to, climate variability (Figure 16). In drier
regions, the struggle is more acute, and awareness of climate variability is greater.
6. Conclusions
Corangamite Shire dairy farmers’ perceptions of seasonal variability were found to be
broadly in line within the meteorological record. Northern (dry) region farmers were
more able to correctly perceive a change in rainfall signal, and were more inclined to
state that temperatures have changed, in comparison to their southern region (wetter)
counterparts. Farmers struggled to perceive a change in the incidence of extreme
weather events. Younger farmers were more likely to perceive a change in temperature
and rainfall over the last decade. Those with smaller holdings were more inclined to
notice a change in temperature than major landholders. Hypothetically, these farmers
must maximise pasture growth at minimal cost, and should pastures fail their smaller
profit margins and inability to mitigate climate risk can result in a more immediate and
unsustainable loss of income.
The majority of farmers in the survey stated that they have made an adjustment to
their business over the past decade; a lesser percentage had initiated entirely new
IJCCSM
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102
practices like purchasing weather forecasts. Although farmers were aware of changes in
climate variability, the majority stated that economic stimuli were the underlying reason
for the changes that they implemented on-farm. The majority did not make a strategic
decision to adjust to changing climate variability, however the tactical actions they
carried out could be effective against it. Consequently, many of those surveyed have
adapted their businesses to climate variability as a result of their adaptation to economic
stimuli.
In accordance with their perceptions of climate variability and change, economic
stimuli played the dominant role in influencing farmer adaptive behaviour. The major,
conservative adjustment identified was water recycling and re-use in the dairy.
A greater connection still needs to be made between climate variability, climate
change, and the real long-term economics of dairying.
Notes
1. There have also been significant calls for dairying to reduce its carbon emissions and the
issue is significant, but our focus here is on how the dairying community has already
adapted to an uncertain climate.
2. The contradictory nature of these expected impacts reflects their uncertainty in climate
predictions. CSIRO (2007) state that there is a 243 to þ20 per cent uncertainty range in
run-off projection and a ^8 per cent uncertainty range in expected precipitation changes.
3. Not all farmers only use surface run-off. Some have bores or town water to supplement it.
4. C4 grasses have better water use efficiency, especially under warmer conditions, than C3
counterparts. C4 grasses are better adapted to drier conditions, however are not as nutritious
as C3 species, nor can they support similar density of cows/hectare as C3 grasses.
Figure 16.
Agricultural adaptation to
climate change occurring
as a result of adaptation to
economic stimuli
Change in climate stimuli
Production decline
Negative financial impact
Adjust business to secure production
and hence profitability
Adapt business to
change in climate stimuli
Increase business
resilience to future
change in climate stimuli
Positive financial
impact
Conscious
Benefit
Increase production
or efficiency
Unconscious
Benefit
Perceptions
of climate
variability
103
5. Macro-scale changes in this context include change to El Nino or La Nina conditions (as a
result of change in the Southern Oscillation Index) or a drop in milk price (due to
strengthening of the Australian Dollar).
6. The Dairying for Tomorrow survey was conducted on behalf of Dairy Australia in all major
Australian dairy regions, one of which is West Vic Dairy (Phelps et al., 2012).
7. As used by the BoM, see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/cdo/about/about-stats.shtml. Other
environmental data, including a heat stress index, was collected but is not reported in this
article.
8. As all feed for cattle may not be sourced all year-round from on-farm pastures, farmers often
used feed supplements, such as grain, to make up a shortfall in feed and to provide cows with
an incentive to come to the milking shed.
9. Increasing temperature, reduced rainfall (primarily autumn), increasing incidence of days of
high potential heat stress.
10. High capital cost means that farmers want to see a long term return on
investment. At 35, farmers can have 30 years to get the return on investment, but at
65 this is unlikely.
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About the authors
Iain R. Elgin-Stuczynski (BSc Honours, Geography, University of Melbourne) is an Analyst at
CBRE Agribusiness, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Simon Batterbury (PhD, Geography, Clark University, USA) is an Associate Professor of
environmental studies at the University of Melbourne and has worked on agrarian change and
rural development in six countries since 1992. Simon Batterbury is the corresponding author and
can be contacted at: simonpjb@unimelb.edu.au
Perceptions
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