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Echinococcosis: Costs, losses and social consequences of a neglected zoonosis

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The socio-economic impact of echinococcosis, with special reference to cystic echinococcosis (CE) caused by Echinococcus granulosus, is reviewed. The following items are discussed: socio-economic consequences in humans; economic consequences in livestock; costs and benefits of control programmes; economic evaluation of control programmes; social reasons favouring the life cycle of CE; social, political and economic situations hindering the control of echinococcosis. Many consequences are difficult to evaluate from an economic point of view. However, many evaluations have shown that CE is an important (often neglected) public health and economic problem, especially in endemic areas, and that the socio-economic evaluation of its consequences and of control actions proves indispensable to best use available resources and possibly tailor control strategies.
ABSTRACT
Echinococcosis: costs, losses and social consequences
of a neglected zoonosis
G. Battelli
#Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009
Abstract The socio-economic impact of echinococcosis, with special reference to cystic
echinococcosis (CE) caused by Echinococcus granulosus, is reviewed. The following items
are discussed: socio-economic consequences in humans; economic consequences in livestock;
costs and benefits of control programmes; economic evaluation of control programmes; social
reasons favouring the life cycle of CE; social, political and economic situations hindering the
control of echinococcosis. Many consequences are difficult to evaluate from an economic
point of view. However, many evaluations have shown that CE is an important (often
neglected) public health and economic problem, especially in endemic areas, and that the
socio-economic evaluation of its consequences and of control actions proves indispensable to
best use available resources and possibly tailor control strategies.
Keywords Echinococcosis .Echinococcus granulosus .Socio-economic impact
Abbreviations
AE alveolar echinococcosis
CE cystic echinococcosis
DALY disability adjusted life year
PAIR puncture-aspiration-injection-reaspiration technique.
Introduction
Echinococcosis, with special reference to cystic echinococcosis (CE) caused by
Echinococcus granulosus, is a significant public health and economic problem in many
parts of the world, especially in the Mediterranean Region, Latin America, Africa south of
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DOI 10.1007/s11259-009-9247-y
G. Battelli
Dipartimento di Sanità Pubblica Veterinaria e Patologia Animale,
Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
G. Battelli (*)
Dipartimento di Sanità Pubblica Veterinaria e Patologia Animale,
via Tolara di sopra 50, 40064 Ozzano Emilia (Bologna), Italy
e-mail: giorgio.battelli@unibo.it
the Sahara, and in other areas where the parasite is endemic. CE is emerging or re-emerging
in some countries of eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria, and in Asia, such as in Kazakhstan
and the Peoples Republic of China. Socio-economic consequences of CE are related to
both human and livestock infections and to the costs of control programmes. In spite of its
socio-economic significance, CE is a scarcely considered (neglected) zoonosis, owing to
several reasons, for instance: occurrence (generally endemic) and risk of infection in poor
areas and populations; little interest shown by the media, decision makers and health
services; lack of information and official reports. The data presented, unless otherwise
stated, have been taken from Battelli et al. 2002, and Battelli 2004.
Socio-economic consequences in humans
In humans, CE may have various consequences, including direct monetary costs (diagnosis,
hospitalisation, surgical or percutaneous treatments, therapy, post-treatment care, travel for
both patient and family members) as well as indirect costs (mortality, suffering and social
consequences of disability, loss of working days or production, abandonment of farming
or agricultural activities by affected or at-risk persons). It should be noted that some of the
above-mentioned consequences are difficult to evaluate from an economic point of view
and others can be mainly or exclusively evaluated in social terms. The disease may
negatively affect the qualityof life. For example, some studies conducted in the United
Kingdom (Torgerson and Dowling 2001) and Jordan (Torgerson et al. 2001) suggested that
patients surgically treated for CE had a significant decrease in their quality of life, and that
patients presenting for treatment of CE had twice the unemployment rate of the general
population in Kyrgyzstan (Torgerson et al. 2003).
Disability adjusted life years(DALYs) are the preferred measure of the World Health
Organisation for quantifying the burden of a disease on a population. In the simplest terms,
a single DALY lost can be thought of as a healthy year of life lost. The parameters for the
computation of DALYs include the degree of disability, the age at time of diagnosis, and the
time lost for disability or premature mortality. In a highly endemic County of the Tibetan
plateu in the Peoples Republic of China, it was demonstrated that the impact of the DALYs
lost due to both CE and alveolar echinococcosis (AE), in terms of medical treatment costs, lost
income, and physical and social suffering, is likely to be substantial (Budke et al. 2004).
Averages of 0.81 and 5.8 DALYs lost per person were estimated, due to echinococcosis
over the entire population and due to CE in affected individuals, respectively. These
estimates suggest that in these areas echinococcosis can be considered very important.
Recently, a preliminary global evaluation of the socio-economic impact of CE was
performed based on data from the literature and the World Organisation for Animal
Health databases (Budke et al. 2006). When underreporting is accounted for, the human
burden of the disease was estimated at nearly 1 million DALYs (or US$ 764 million).
This value indicates that CE produces disability on a similar scale to some important
tropical diseases, such as Dengue, Chagas disease and African trypanosomiasis.
Among the costs associated with the identification and treatment of CE in humans, those
related to the duration of hospitalisation and convalescence represent the most important
components. Where efficient services and modern techniques and interventions have been
applied, the hospitalisation period has decreased by about 50% within a few years. Such an
implementation also leads to a better control of the convalescent period and to a decrease in
the working days lost. In Italy, at the main hospital of Bologna, an evaluation of
hospitalisation costs was carried out using an analytical method of assessment. The 1995
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mean specific cost of a surgical case (hepatic infection) was about US$ 14,000. The mean
number of days spent in hospital was 28 (73.4% of total costs). The average costs (US$) of
a surgical case were about 13,600 in Wales (UK) (2000), 1,480 in Tunisia (2000), and 700
in Jordan (2002) (Budke et al. 2006). In Argentina, in the Rio Negro Province, the 1997
mean cost per CE infected patient in two hospitals amounted to approximately US$ 4,500;
the latter costs were about 31% lower than in 1980, mainly due to the introduction of
chemotherapy with albendazole and of the Puncture-Aspiration-Injection-Reaspiration
technique (PAIR). In Italy, a first attempt of comparing the costs of PAIR and of
conservative surgery for uncomplicated echinococcal cysts have been recently made
(Brunetti et al. 2007). The 2006 mean specific cost of a PAIR treatment for a 3 day hospital
stay and 1 year follow-up was EUR 2,072 and that of conservative surgery for a 4 day
hospital stay and 1 year follow-up was EUR 3,267.
Economic consequences in livestock
In livestock, the following consequences of CE must be considered: reduced yield and
quality of meat, milk and wool; decreased hide value; reduced birth rate and fecundity;
delayed performance and growth; condemnation of organs, especially liver and lungs; costs
for destruction of infected viscera and dead animals. There are also other possible indirect
detrimental consequences, such as bans on export of animals and their products if these are
required to be free of CE. In livestock, the importance of the above-mentioned economic
consequences will depend, to a large extent, on the typology and general health status of the
animals and on the characteristics of the farming or livestock industry. Quantification,
standardised evaluation of such losses and exclusion of biassing factors in animal
production are very difficult; therefore the available data should be interpreted with caution.
Losses in sheep with CE have been reported to approximate 710% of milk yield, 520% of
meat or total carcass weight, and 1040% of wool production. In Sardinia, with a population of
three million dairy sheep, the loss in milk production was estimated to about US$ 13.7 million
in 1982. This evaluation was based on a presumed decrease in milk production of 7% in
infected sheep and on an 80% prevalence of CE in the sheep population. The quantification of
losses caused by infected viscera is influenced by both the legislative rules of each country (e.g.
compulsory condemnation and destruction) and the number of animals slaughtered under
veterinary supervision. Depending on the utilisation of viscera and on the total or partial
condemnation of infected organs, the order of magnitude of losses can vary. For instance, in
South America, it was estimated that the viscera of 2 million cattle and 3.5 million sheep are
condemned every year, and that the cost of such condemnation (1999) amounts to US$ 6.3
million in Argentina and US$ 2.5 million in Chile. In Italy, in 1980, an estimate of 10% was
proposed for the reduction in commercial value per sheep infected with CE; this percentage
included the value of the condemned viscera. An annual worldwide livestock production loss
for CE has recently been estimated asbeing at least equal to US$ 142 million and possibly up to
US$ 2,2 billion (Budke et al. 2006).
Costs and benefits of control programmes
The awareness of the socio-economic impact of the disease has stimulated the
implementation of control campaigns against CE in certain areas or countries. The main
costs for control programmes are the following: education; dog control; dog treatment; detection
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and destruction of infected viscera; diagnosis (e.g. mass screening) and therapy in humans;
epidemiological surveillance and monitoring; and administration and evaluation of the
programme. It should be noted that some of the expenses sustained for echinococcosis control
may simultaneously be beneficial to control programmes against other diseases or animal-
correlated problems (e.g.rabies, tapeworm infections, dog straying, foodhygiene). If the control
includes vaccination, costs of vaccine and stock vaccination must also be considered. The
benefits of control programmes may be financial and non-financial (the latter category is
difficult to evaluate). The most relevant financial benefits are the following: increase in farm
animal production; increase in the quantity and quality of organs suitable for consumption by
humans and carnivorous animals; decreased medical costs. The non-financial benefits (in some
cases these may be evaluated from an economic point of view) include the following: increase in
the average number of healthy years of life; improvement of the physical, psychological and
social status of the population, mainly of the poor; improvement of veterinary and public health
services, hygiene and primary health care; reduction in other health or zoo-economic problems
such as rabies, food-borne infections, diseases by cestode larvae in farm animals, etc.
Economic evaluation of control programmes
For many years, some methods have been applied to the evaluation of control programmes.
Among the economic procedures, mention should be made of cost-effectiveness analysis
and cost-benefit analysis.
Until now, few examples are available of economic analyses of CE control programmes.
With regard to the Mediterranean Region, a prospective analysis was performed of a ten-year
project involving Sardinia. Assuming a reduction in the disease prevalence in sheep from 80
down to 10%, in 1982 the net present value of the gained milk production was evaluated at US$
18.3 million. With a reduction in human cases per year from 235 downto 15, a gain of 669 years
of human life was reckoned. The total cost of the programme was estimated equal to US$ 8.8
million and the internal rate of return at 53.6%. In the Community of La Rioja, Spain, a
programme of prevention and control of CE was initiated in 1987. In 2000, this programme led
to a reduction of 97.2% in the CE occurrence in dogs, of 74.4% in sheep, and of 78.9% in
humans. These reductions were estimated to yield an increasing cumulative cost/benefit balance
that was already positive on year 8 of the programme, and that reached 1.96 in 2000.
Recently, the use of mathematical models has been introduced to compare different
intervention strategies aiming at controlling echinococcosis (Torgerson 2001). Cost per DALY
averted has been estimated for a higly endemic County in Peoples Republic of China (Budke
et al. 2005). In this study, a control programme, based on dog treatment and sheep and goat
vaccination, was projected to prevent 6595% and 950% of annual losses due to CE and AE,
respectively. Cost per DALY averted, for both CE and AE combined, was evaluated to be as
little as US$ 89. This cost would be less than 25 US$ for the human health sector if cost sharing
was implemented between the public health and agricultural sectors based on the proportional
benefit from control. It should be noted that in 1993 the World Bank proposed the cut-off for a
higly cost-effective programme for low income countries as equal to US$ 150/DALY averted.
Social reasons favouring the life cycle of CE
Many social reasons favour the life cycle of E.granulosus and the persistence of CE in
many parts of the world. The following are of particular significance: many rural families
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have small lots of lands and/or live in close proximity with their flocks and dogs (this is
especially true for pastoralists, nomadic people and their families); the practice of gathering
together groups of animals belonging to different owners and leading them to common
pastures is an occasion for the circulation of infections, including CE; home slaughter is
largely practised, and dogs are fed on offals; uncontrolled trade and exchange of animals
and of animal products are frequent; numerous small abattoirs exist which are insufficiently
equipped or lack facilities and are built in the vicinity of human settlements; professional
training of farm and animal industry workers, health education of the public, and
information by mass-media are often inadequate or neglected; stray (often numerous) and
feral dogs (including wolves) may feed on dead animals and garbage, and hunt intermediate
hosts; in some areas, also in the urban environment, where dogs and farm animals often live
together with man, the circulation of zoonotic infection, including CE, is favoured.
Moreover, the high cost and difficulties of slaughtering single animals consequent to
legislative rules may create situations of uncontrolled slaughtering.
Social, political and economic situations hindering the control of echinococcosis
The control of echinococcosis is directly linked to social, political and economic situations,
and sometimes to religious practices, in the affected areas. A situation of social and political
instability and poverty favours the spread of the disease owing to uncontrolled animal
slaughtering and viscera disposal, uncontrolled animal trade, presence of roaming dogs,
absence or scarcity of veterinary services. Lack of knowledge and of health education and
information of the people are barriers facing the effectiveness of control programmes and
interventions. For instance, control of CE is less effective without the support of
dog-owners, and this support can only be obtained if the people have a clear understanding
of the life cycle of E. granulosus and of risk factors for human infections (Heath et al.
2006). Another important point to be underlined is that the factors facilitating the
occurrence of CE may become much more crucial in the event of emergencies (e.g.
earthquakes, floods, famine, wars and institutional upsets). Moreover, CE is re-emerging in
some countries where drastic changes in the typology of animal husbandry (from intensive
to familiar management) have occurred as a consequence of policy changes, as observed,
for example, in the former Soviet Republics in Central Asia and Bulgaria.
Where the public administration lacks funds for social services, resources become
unavailable for the control of CE and related activities: other priorities may be promoted
which demand shorter action times. Besides the problem of funding, other hindrances exist
which must be overcome. Indeed, many countries, especially in the Mediterranean region
and in Latin America, are developing long-term control programmes. However, sometimes
public administrators are reluctant to invest resources in programmes lasting longer than
their mandates. Another factor which affects the effectiveness of control plans is the
presence of geo-political borders which make it difficult to prevent the infection from
entering from outside territories.
Final considerations
When evaluating the social and economic impact of echinococcosis and of its control
programmes, many parameters should be considered, the majority of which are difficult to
quantify in economic terms. Due to the uncertainity of many costs, recent studies have
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evaluated the economic effects of echinococcosis using analytical techniques (such as
Monte-Carlo analysis) that can give a range of cost estimates (Torgerson 2003). The
evaluation of the economic weightof the disease varies in different countries. For
example, it may be much higher in a developing country than in an industrialized one. The
validity of the estimates strongly depends on an efficient information system (not only
sanitary) capable of providing reliable and real data. For instance, in many endemic areas,
due to the poor level of reporting, evaluating the number of human and animal infections is
the first difficulty encountered. Despite extant restraints and because of finite resources,
estimates of the financial burden and social consequences of the disease prove
indispensable to best use available resources and possibly tailor control strategies.
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Introduction: The exploration of genetic diversity among Echinococcus granulosus strains in Pakistani livestock is pivotal for understanding the intricate dynamics of cystic echinococcosis. This section provides an overview of the significance of the study, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of the parasite's genetic landscape. The introduction highlights the potential implications for disease transmission and zoonotic spillover, setting the stage for the detailed exploration of genetic markers and their association with livestock environments. Methodology: The utilization of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) to identify genetic markers is detailed, along with the statistical analyses conducted, including the Chi-Square test and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The methodology provides a transparent and replicable framework for the identification of genetic diversity, tracking prevalence, and assessing the association with specific livestock environments. Results: Our results showcasing the identified genetic markers, prevalence patterns, and their association with diverse farming and slaughterhouse settings. The statistically significant differences uncovered through ANOVA and the Chi-Square test offer a comprehensive understanding of the environmental factors influencing Echinococcus granulosus transmission. The results highlight the multifaceted nature of the genetic diversity and prevalence patterns observed in Pakistani livestock. Conclusion: The conclusion synthesizes the key findings, emphasizing their implications for public health in Pakistan. The discussion encompasses the predictive role of genetic markers, the imperative assessment of zoonotic spillover risk, and the foundation they provide for tailored interventions. The proactive nature of public health strategies, grounded in genetic knowledge, is underscored. The conclusion positions the research within the broader context of cystic echinococcosis management, contributing to informed policies and interventions for effective control.
... www.nature.com/scientificreports/ public health and economic consequences 1,2 . The parasite life cycle involves domestic dogs (and wild canids) as definitive hosts, in which adult tapeworms are harbored in the small intestine. ...
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There is a significant focus on the role of the host microbiome in different outcomes of human parasitic diseases, including cystic echinococcosis (CE). This study was conducted to identify the intestinal microbiome of patients with CE at different stages of hydatid cyst compared to healthy individuals. Stool samples from CE patients as well as healthy individuals were collected. The samples were divided into three groups representing various stages of hepatic hydatid cyst: active (CE1 and CE2), transitional (CE3), and inactive (CE4 and CE5). One family member from each group was selected to serve as a control. The gut microbiome of patients with different stages of hydatid cysts was investigated using metagenomic next-generation amplicon sequencing of the V3–V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. In this study, we identified 4862 Operational Taxonomic Units from three stages of hydatid cysts in CE patients and healthy individuals with a combined frequency of 2,955,291. The most abundant genera observed in all the subjects were Blautia, Agathobacter, Faecalibacterium, Bacteroides, Bifidobacterium, and Prevotella. The highest microbial frequency was related to inactive forms of CE, and the lowest frequency was observed in the group with active forms. However, the lowest OTU diversity was found in patients with inactive cysts compared with those with active and transitional cyst stages. The genus Agatobacter had the highest OTU frequency. Pseudomonas, Gemella, and Ligilactobacillus showed significant differences among the patients with different stages of hydatid cysts. Additionally, Anaerostipes and Candidatus showed significantly different reads in CE patients compared to healthy individuals. Our findings indicate that several bacterial genera can play a role in the fate of hydatid cysts in patients at different stages of the disease.
... The prevailing strains identified in both humans and livestock consist of the common sheep strain (G1), the buffalo strain (G3), and Echinococcus canadensis (G6/7) [10][11][12][13][14]. Remarkably, cases of Echinococcus multilocularis have been documented in humans from Pakistan [15]. Cystic echinococcosis (CE) imposes notable economic burdens on the livestock industry, entailing costs for treating afflicted animals, declines in milk or meat production, and the consequential effects on morbidity and mortality [13,16]. Projected economic losses linked to CE in diverse nations consist of US$ 212.35 million in India, US$ 232.3 million in Iran, US$ 7.708 million in Turkey [17][18][19], and roughly 26.5 million Rupees in Pakistan [20]. ...
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Echinococcosis is a serious and potentially fatal parasitic zoonosis, which can be divided into two subtypes in humans including cystic echinococcosis (CE) and alveolar echinococcosis (AE). It poses a great...
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Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is an important zoonosis in Italy and in the whole Mediterranean Region, as confirmed by the work by Ettore Biocca, whose contributions to the subject are reported in a summarised annex to the bibliography. The contribution to the understanding and control of CE are presented, with special emphasis on the socio-economic impact, on factors affecting the maintenance of CE in the Mediterranean Region, on the epidemiological situation and control measures, on the present status of epidemiological surveillance, on the control problems in normal and emergency situations, on health education and training. Also, the justifications of combined control programmes are discussed, which may be applied only in situations of peace and well-being.
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The economic costs of cystic echinococcosis (CE) in Wales, which is part of one of the most highly developed, industrialized countries in the World, were evaluated. In this region, the disease in both sheep and humans causes financial losses. The sheep-related costs in the most highly endemic area, of southern and mid Wales, were estimated from recently published prevalences of the disease in local sheep. No relevant and recent data were available on the sheep in the rest of Wales but these animals were assumed to have lower prevalences, in line with historical data, and were ignored in the economic analysis. The costs of the disease in humans were based on published incidences of human cases treated surgically and the costs of surgery as estimated from hospital records and by costing out the procedures each patient received whilst undergoing treatment. The quality of life of patients treated for CE was also determined and compared with that of healthy, case-matched controls, using a standard health-survey questionnaire (SF-36). The results indicated that the treated patients suffered some long-term morbidity, caused by the disease itself, its treatment or both. Although accurate monetary values were not calculated for this decreased quality of life, the results indicate that the economic effects of human CE are greater than simply the cost of treatment. Assuming that the long-term morbidity demonstrated does have an economic effect, each year CE in Wales is probably costing the U.K. economy more than U.S.1million,andperhapsasmuchasU.S.1 million, and perhaps as much as U.S.7.9 million.
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The economic costs of cystic echinococcosis (CE) in Jordan, a developing country of lower-middle income, were investigated. Initial cost-estimates for livestock were based on the published prevalences of Echinococcus granulosus infection in sheep and goats and the values of livestock-related products together with likely production losses. Likewise, the annual numbers of human cases of CE were estimated using published surgical incidences in man. The costs of surgery were estimated from hospital records and by costing out the procedures each patient received whilst undergoing treatment. After comparing the quality of life of patients treated for CE with that of case-matched controls, it appeared that the treated patients had some long-term morbidity caused either by the disease or the resulting treatment. A simple spreadsheet model was built up, to sum the individual cost items. Each cost item and each of the data related to prevalence and incidence was assigned a mathematical distribution and varied randomly, using Monte-Carlo techniques, throughout its range, over 10 000 simulations. The results of the study indicate that the most likely range of annual economic losses attributable to CE in Jordan (encompassing 95% confidence limits) is from U.S.26022156533661,withamedianofU.S.2 602 215–6533 661, with a median of U.S.3 874 070.
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The economic costs of cystic echinococcosis (CE) in Wales, which is part of one of the most highly developed, industrialized countries in the World, were evaluated. In this region, the disease in both sheep and humans causes financial losses. The sheep-related costs in the most highly endemic area, of southern and mid Wales, were estimated from recently published prevalences of the disease in local sheep. No relevant and recent data were available on the sheep in the rest of Wales but these animals were assumed to have lower prevalences, in line with historical data, and were ignored in the economic analysis. The costs of the disease in humans were based on published incidences of human cases treated surgically and the costs of surgery as estimated from hospital records and by costing out the procedures each patient received whilst undergoing treatment. The quality of life of patients treated for CE was also determined and compared with that of healthy, case-matched controls, using a standard health-survey questionnaire (SF-36). The results indicated that the treated patients suffered some long-term morbidity, caused by the disease itself, its treatment or both. Although accurate monetary values were not calculated for this decreased quality of life, the results indicate that the economic effects of human CE are greater than simply the cost of treatment. Assuming that the long-term morbidity demonstrated does have an economic effect, each year CE in Wales is probably costing the U.K. economy more than U.S.1million,andperhapsasmuchasU.S.1 million, and perhaps as much as U.S.7.9 million.
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The economic costs of cystic echinococcosis (CE) in Jordan, a developing country of lower-middle income, were investigated. Initial cost-estimates for livestock were based on the published prevalences of Echinococcus granulosus infection in sheep and goats and the values of livestock-related products together with likely production losses. Likewise, the annual numbers of human cases of CE were estimated using published surgical incidences in man. The costs of surgery were estimated from hospital records and by costing out the procedures each patient received whilst undergoing treatment. After comparing the quality of life of patients treated for CE with that of case-matched controls, it appeared that the treated patients had some long-term morbidity caused either by the disease or the resulting treatment. A simple spreadsheet model was built up, to sum the individual cost items. Each cost item and each of the data related to prevalence and incidence was assigned a mathematical distribution and varied randomly, using Monte-Carlo techniques, throughout its range, over 10 000 simulations. The results of the study indicate that the most likely range of annual economic losses attributable to CE in Jordan (encompassing 95% confidence limits) is from U.S.26022156533661,withamedianofU.S.2 602 215-6533 661, with a median of U.S.3 874 070.
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Human cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by Echinococcus granulosus, is an emerging disease in central Asia. This study examined official data on the incidence of CE between 1991 and 2000 and studied routine hospital records in the main surgical hospitals in Bishkek, Kyrgystan, between 1990 and 2000. In addition, a cross-sectional ultrasound study of a rural population was undertaken in northern Kyrgystan. The results of this study have indicated that the annual incidence of CE over the whole of Kyrgystan has increased from 5.4 cases per 100,000 in 1991 to 18 cases per 100,000 in 2000. Likewise, hospital admissions in Bishkek, due to CE, have increased from an estimated 21 cases in 1990 to approximately 127 and 124 in 1998 and 1999, respectively. Similarly, paediatric cases have increased from 2 in 1990 to 82 in 2000. There was no obvious association with occupation of affected adults although a disproportionate number of hospital cases were registered as unemployed compared to the general population. Whilst there was no gender difference in hospital admissions amongst children, men were more likely to undergo hospital treatment than women. Fifty percent of cysts were recorded as hepatic cysts with forty seven percent recorded as pulmonary cysts. Analysis of the data suggests that the likelihood of an affected patient having a hepatic cyst decreased with age. The results of the cross-sectional study indicated that 20 of 1486 subjects (1.35%) examined by ultrasound had an abdominal hydatid cyst. By extrapolating the ratio of pulmonary to hepatic cysts recorded in the hospital population and adjusting for age it is possible that as much as 3.4% of the rural population may have sub-clinical CE. Analysis of the possible risk factors in the cross-sectional study revealed that subjects who had CE were less likely to use well water as their water supply than non-infected subjects.
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In many parts of the world Echinococcus granulosus is a widespread infection in sheep and dogs with a consequential spill over into the human population. In the past, mathematical models have been derived to define the transmission dynamics of this parasite, principally in the sheep-dog life cycle. These models have characterized the cycles of infection as lacking in density dependent constraints in both the definitive or intermediate hosts. This suggested that there was little, if any, induced host immunity by the parasite in either host in natural infections. However, recent evidence from both Tunisia and Kazakhstan, where young dogs are the most heavily parasitised, suggests the possibility of significant definitive host immunity. This may have an effect on the control effort needed to destabilize the parasite. A preliminary computer simulation model (based on an Excel spreadsheet) to attempt to predict the results of a control programme has been written. This demonstrates that there could be significantly different results if there is indeed protective immunity in the dog than in the absence of immunity. In the former the parasite needs a greater control effort to push the parasite towards extinction than in the latter. The computer simulation is based on a mathematical model of the parasite's life cycle and is flexible so that different values of parameters can be used in different situations where the transmission of the parasite may be at different levels. Because of the flexibility of the computer simulation it is anticipated that this programme can be applied in most situations, although initial parameters for a particular location or strain of the parasite will have to be first predetermined with base line field surveys and possibly experimental infections. The programme also has an additional flexibility to enable simulations if some parameters cannot be accurately estimated through Monte-Carlo techniques. In the latter situation, worst and best case scenarios can be estimated and likely frequency distributions of the unknown parameters can be included in the model.
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Cystic echinococcosis (CE) has a number of important economic effects. The most tangible of these is the cost of expensive medical treatment for human cases. Each confirmed case of CE can cost the health services or individual several thousand dollars. In addition to these costs, the additional cost of loss of edible offal from agricultural animals is well known. This may result in the entire loss of an infected organ or at least the trimming and downgrading of that organ, depending on local legislature. However, these losses may only be a relatively small percentage of the economic losses attributed to CE. Recent evidence suggests, through quality of life surveys, that patients treated for CE never fully recover and have a significant and permanent decreased quality of life. This has yet to be translated into monetary terms, but it almost certainly will result in the loss of income, possibly through a lower paid job, and/or the additional expense of increased ill health. Furthermore, in most reports, between 1 and 2% of CE cases are fatal. The death of these individuals results in the loss of the potential lifetime's economic output of these individuals. With alveolar echinococcosis the mortality rate is much higher and such consequences more severe. There is also a considerable amount of Soviet literature, and small amounts published elsewhere which suggests that CE also significantly affects animal productivity. Thus, infected sheep tend to give birth to fewer lambs, have lower levels of food conversion, produce less milk and have poorer quality fleeces then non-infected sheep. The total cost of the disease is the sum of the various costs to the health services, costs of morbidity and losses in animal productivity. Due to the uncertainty of many of these costs, it is appropriate to model these losses using techniques that can give a range of cost estimates. By using analytical techniques such as Monte-Carlo analysis, on parameters that are difficult to determine accurately, all such variables can be randomly varied simultaneously along likely frequency distributions. The results of this give a useful sensitivity analysis of economic costs. In addition, the purchasing power of money in the local economy must also be taken into account. One US buysmuchmoreinadevelopingcountrythaninanindustrializedeconomy.Consequently,eachlost buys much more in a developing country than in an industrialized economy. Consequently, each lost will be more acutely felt in poor countries. Estimates of the financial burden of disease are beneficial in deciding priorities for control. They are also potentially useful tools to lobby donors or non-governmental organizations to fund control programs in poor countries.