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Conflict and Crisis Induced Displacement
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Print Publication Date: Jun 2014
Subject: Political Science, International Relations, Comparative Politics
Online Publication Date: Aug 2014 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199652433.013.0005
Conflict and Crisis Induced Displacement
Sarah Kenyon Lischer
The Oxford Handbook of Refugee and Forced Migration Studies
Edited by Elena Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, Gil Loescher, Katy Long, and Nando Sigona
Abstract and Keywords
This chapter focuses on mass flight and displacement caused by political violence occur
ring in the country of origin—that is, conflict and political or economic crisis. It questions
the validity of quantitative and qualitative methods used to explore causality in such com
plex contexts of mass flux and argues in favour of mixed-methods, multidisciplinary re
search. After providing an overview of theories of conflict-induced displacement, it con
siders the different methodological approaches and research methods used by scholars to
study the causes of conflict-induced displacement and forced migration. It then discusses
practical approaches to crisis- and conflict-induced displacement.
Keywords: mass flight, displacement, political violence, conflict, crisis, mixed-methods, multidisciplinary research,
research methods, forced migration
Introduction
When faced with political violence, or threats of violence, a person has the choice to fight,
to attempt escape, or to give up and likely suffer terrible consequences. Considering that
in most situations of conflict and crisis the person being threatened is unarmed and usu
ally in one or more categories of vulnerability or particular risk (female, child, elderly,
sick), a common response is the attempt to escape. However, the seemingly simple equa
tion of conflict and escape is, like all political phenomena, complex and constantly shift
ing. Addressing the topic of conflict and crisis induced displacement requires an examina
tion of three dimensions: theoretical, methodological, and practical. Deriving from an
analysis of the literature on conflict and crisis induced displacement, this chapter briefly
examines each of these three dimensions, and stresses the need for increased integration
among the different theoretical and methodological approaches. In light of the breadth of
the topic, it is necessary to begin by specifying how the concepts of conflict and crisis are
used in this context. Subsequently, there is a discussion of theories and methods, includ
ing an assessment of their contributions to the field and a discussion of the practical re
Conflict and Crisis Induced Displacement
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quirement for developing and testing explanations. The conclusion in turn addresses cur
rent gaps and areas for future research.
In this chapter, the terms ‘conflict’ and ‘crisis’ refer to political violence occurring in the
country of origin.1 The term crisis often indicates the necessity for decision making in the
face of impending danger. A crisis can affect an individual or family when weighing the
risks of staying or fleeing. In politics, the term crisis describes an unsustainable situation
which will rapidly degenerate without countervailing action. Using the terms crisis and
conflict in this broad conceptualization takes into account the many types of political vio
lence that cause displacement, as well as the varying levels of intensity in violence. These
can range from violent political oppression to full-scale civil war.2 Such (p. 318) violence
causes displacement when people flee their homes in response to the conflict. They may
flee across international borders or remain within the borders of their own state as inter
nally displaced people (IDPs). In addition to the broad definition of conflict, this chapter
adopts a broad definition of displaced people since the legal definitions provided in the
1951 Geneva Convention, its 1967 Protocol, and the OAU Convention exclude many of the
displaced, particularly those who do not cross state borders or those who are denied offi
cial refugee status. The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement are perhaps most
useful for states which are amenable to helping IDPs, but the Principles arguably have lit
tle influence with states hostile to the IDPs.
Theories of conflict and crisis induced displacement can be disaggregated into numerous
avenues of research. Some of the most important questions, as demonstrated by the level
of scholarly attention and practical importance, focus on the types of conflict and crises
which induce forced migration. Related analyses seek to understand the location and tim
ing of displacement, and the determinants of individual and family decision-making
processes. Researchers aim to establish how the affected people interpret their own situ
ations, as well as the larger political and historical context of the displacement. Finally,
two overarching questions are how regional and international factors affect conflict in
duced displacement and how displacement, in turn, affects political processes.
The increasing recognition of the political and security implications of displacement has
broadened the theoretical lens through which scholars view the issue (also see Hammer
stad, this volume). An international relations analysis, for example, focuses more on the
relationship between traditional security threats and forced migration (Zolberg, Suhrke,
and Aguayo 1989; Loescher 1992; Terry 2002; Stedman and Tanner 2003; Lischer 2005;
Loescher and Milner 2005; Muggah 2006; Greenhill 2008). This has had a mixed effect:
the issue of displacement receives more attention outside the humanitarian realm, but
that attention may lead policymakers to securitize the response to the crisis in a way that
undermines refugee protection. One response to this trend is an increasing emphasis on
‘human security’ (Newman and Van Selm 2003). The Human Security Report Project ex
plains that the ‘term human security is now widely used to describe the complex of inter
related threats associated with international war, civil war, genocide, and the displace
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ment of populations. Human security means, at minimum, freedom from violence, and
from the fear of violence’ (Human Security Report 2008).
The methodologies employed are as rich and diverse as the theoretical. Scholars have ex
amined the causal factors of displacement using methods such as intensive field research,
comparative case studies, and large-n statistical studies. The different methods adapt
themselves to different levels of analysis ranging from macro-historical and global trends
to micro-level analysis of why individuals decide to flee. The following sections examine
both the theoretical and methodological approaches used in analyses of conflict induced
displacement.
(p. 319) Theories of Conflict Induced Displacement
The initial motivating question for most scholars of migration is ‘why do people
flee?’ (Thorburn 1996; Weiner 1996; Schmeidl 1997; Davenport, Moore, and Poe 2003;
Neumayer 2005; Melander and Öberg 2006; Adhikari 2013). Within the parameters of
this chapter, the guiding question is ‘given the presence (or threat of) political violence,
why do people flee?’ The significance of this research question is demonstrated by the ex
tensive political, security, and humanitarian impacts of displacement. In addition, the im
portance of this inquiry often derives from the normative desire to reduce violence in gen
eral or to reduce the suffering caused by displacement crises. Overall, the importance of
conflict induced displacement within academia is evidenced by the growth of the sub-field
of refugee and forced migration studies and the integration of displacement issues in
many social sciences and humanities disciplines. From the perspective of critical theory,
Hyndman reminds us that the issue of forced migration has broad and interdisciplinary
importance, far beyond the field of Refugee Studies. She observes that ‘Combined with
the increased mobility of space-time compression, questions of travel, identity formation,
and displacement represent a major tour de force in the social sciences and
humanities’ (Hyndman 2000: 36).
Theories of conflict induced displacement focus on both root causes and proximate caus
es. Analysing root causes of displacement, such as persistent oppression and inequality,
provides background data and predictive possibilities.3 However, such conditions general
ly combine with a proximate cause, such as ethnic cleansing, riots, and war, before forced
displacement occurs. Indeed, many states are characterized by conditions and processes
that are described as root causes of displacement, such as political oppression, inequality,
or historical enmity; furthermore, such conditions can persist for years without any signif
icant forced displacement taking place.
With the above in mind, this chapter examines political violence as a proximate cause of
forced displacement. One common finding in the literature in this regard is that, while
there are many types of political violence, it is a few types of violence which cause most
large-scale forced displacement around the world. As discussed herein, these are geno
cide, politicide,4 and civil war. Schmeidl’s regression analysis confirms the widely held hy
pothesis that political violence is the most significant cause of refugee movements: ‘The
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relative strength and consistency of genocides/politicides in predicting change in refugee
stock supports Fein’s (1993) and Jonassohn’s (1993) claims that the majority of all refugee
migrations are caused by genocides’ (Schmeidl 1997: 302). Much of the research on con
flict induced displacement thus focuses on the characteristics of the conflict in the coun
try of origin and the conditions under which they lead to forced migration, with hypothe
ses subsequently seeking to explain a wide range of phenomena, from broad determi
nants of refugee flows in general to individuals’ decisions within specific conflicts.
(p. 320) In research that investigates broad patterns, as well as specific phenomena, Hyn
dman offers a theoretical approach which provides a macro-level analysis of global pat
terns of power and resource allocation, making the claim that ‘the politics of mobility is a
useful tool for analyzing migration, specifically because it recognizes the variable move
ment of refugees and other disenfranchised groups’ (Hyndman 2000: 32). Such a transna
tional geopolitics of mobility compares the movement of people and resources, particular
ly money, across borders. This analysis gains strength from its firm empirical grounding
in the Horn of Africa. In the case of the Kenya/Somalia border, Hyndman finds that ‘hu
manitarian capital crosses borders much more easily than refugees can traverse the same
frontiers’ (Hyndman 2000: 59).
Similar reliance on comparative frameworks of analysis has led to a greater level of detail
and variation in research on conflict and migration. Drawing from the literature on civil
war, researchers have identified the need to disaggregate concepts such as conflict and
violence (Kalyvas 2006). The reasoning is that the type of political violence that spurred
flight will help determine the nature of the displacement crisis and the potential solutions
to both the original conflict and the resulting forced migration. In examining the causes
of displacement through the lens of Kalyvas’s model, Lischer focuses on civil conflict and
international conflict. She divides the former into four categories: civil war, genocide,
failed state, and persecution; the category of international conflict in turn includes border
wars, third party intervention, and invasion. The benefit of disaggregation is that it ‘al
lows the researcher to examine how conflict affects displacement and also how aspects of
the displacement crisis may in turn affect the conflict’ (Lischer 2007: 145).
Such disaggregated analyses demonstrate that forced displacement often functions as a
central strategy in civil wars and, as such, can be considered in the political as well as hu
manitarian realm. An example of the central strategic role of forced migration is the con
flict in Darfur which rapidly prompted a massive refugee and IDP crisis: Kofi Annan la
belled Darfur as the ‘world’s worst humanitarian crisis’ of the time (Reuters, 29 Decem
ber 2005). The statistics in Darfur may have given the impression that massive displace
ment and destruction were the tragic by-product of war. In reality, however, forced migra
tion was a strategic tool used by the Sudanese government to permanently alter landown
ership and population patterns in Darfur: ‘the massive displacement is not merely a con
sequence of the attacks, but rather a central war aim of the attackers, who are clearing
entire areas of their original inhabitants’ (Tubiana 2007: 69). The terrifying abuses that
accompanied this displacement, such as mass rapes and widespread torture, ensured the
future reluctance of internally and internationally displaced persons to return home. Con
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sidering the political motives underpinning displacement, the almost exclusively humani
tarian response unsurprisingly did not lead to a solution.
In light of such experiences of abuse and the strategic political motivations underpinning
conflict induced displacement, scholars are also increasingly asking why people stay. In
deed, insight into why people flee is gained by asking why they do not flee. This requires
the researcher to analyse the causes of displacement by comparing different populations
and not just the displaced groups. Steele, for instance, argues that (p. 321) the question of
why people leave is not universally applicable, indicating that, based on her fieldwork in
Colombia, ‘many people stay in spite of violence’ (2009: 420), while Melander and Öberg
focus on the population which stays behind, noting that over time, that group becomes
‘increasingly unwilling or unable to relocate’ (2006: 129). Thus, it becomes important to
identify and analyse the conditions that influence decisions to stay in order to advance
our understanding of why other people decide to leave.
In addition to domestic factors, a greater understanding of the complex relationship be
tween refugee crises and regional politics has emerged over time, starting with the semi
nal work by Zolberg, Suhrke, and Aguayo, Escape from Violence, published in 1989. In ef
fect, although much literature focused on the ways in which refugees affected politics in
the host state, the ways in which host state politics caused refugee flows remained under-
theorized until the 1990s. Weiner, in his seminal article ‘Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighbor
hoods’ (1996), identifies the causal relationship between regional conflicts and refugee
crises. First, he categorizes types of conflicts which produce refugees: inter-state wars,
anti-colonial wars, ethnic conflicts, non-ethnic conflicts, and flights from authoritarian
and revolutionary regimes. From his analysis of global refugee trends between 1969 and
1992, he finds that regional effects play an important role in forced migration, arguing,
effectively, that refugees come from ‘bad neighborhoods’ (Weiner 1996: 9). He elaborates
on the empirical observation that civil wars tend to occur in regional clusters as follows:
Conflicts within countries often spill across borders, sometimes because the con
flicts themselves are rooted in the division of ethnic communities by international
boundaries, sometimes because the weaker party in a conflict successfully finds
allies in a neighboring country, and sometimes because the refugees themselves
become the source of conflict within or between countries.
(Weiner 1996: 28)
In addition to his finding vis-à-vis the creation of refugee flows, Weiner notes that
refugees can also be causes of conflict. He gives the example that ‘The flow of some ten
million refugees from East Pakistan was not the result of the war between India and Pak
istan in 1972, but took place during the civil war in 1971. The refugee flow was one of the
causes of the war, not its consequence’ (Weiner 1996: 19).
The empirical observation regarding the clustering of civil wars is further examined by
Saleyhan and Gleditch, who focus more on the effects rather than the causes of displace
ment. Their research is guided by the question: ‘what are the exact causal mechanisms
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behind the international diffusion of civil war’ (2006: 2)? From this general question, they
narrow the focus on refugees, hypothesizing that ‘the presence of refugees from neigh
boring countries increases the probability that a country will experience civil war’ (2006:
15, emphasis in the original). Their statistical study finds that states hosting refugees are
more likely to experience civil war than those without. Saleyhan and Gleditch are inter
ested in a similar question to Weiner, although they do not attempt to replicate that re
search. Instead, their quantitative work sheds further light on the earlier findings. The
following section will explore such different methodological approaches in greater detail.
(p. 322) Methodological Diversity
Scholars have used a welcome diversity of methodological approaches and research
methods to study the causes of conflict induced displacement, in part due to the interdis
ciplinary nature of the field of refugee and forced migration studies. Indeed, researchers
from different disciplines, such as anthropology, sociology, and political science, bring
their own disciplinary practices to bear on similar questions. Scholars engage in both the
ory building and empirical research that test existing hypotheses. Within qualitative ap
proaches, there are numerous ways to study the causes of conflict induced displacement.
These include anthropological thick description, controlled case studies, elite interview
ing, and others (George and Bennett 2005). In turn, the most common quantitative
method is large-n statistical analysis, with quantitative scholars often relying on existing
datasets or developing their own; more recently, some work has moved into computer
modelling and other technical tools (Edwards 2008). The following section provides some
examples of these methods and analyses the general advantages and disadvantages of
each.
Qualitative
A traditional anthropological method is ethnographic in nature and may include long-term
participant observation and the collection of detailed oral histories and life stories; by
telling their own stories to the researcher, refugees themselves and the ethnographer her
or himself are able to develop a narrative analysis to interpret the reasons for their dis
placement. Eastmond (2007) finds that narratives can help researchers uncover the caus
es of displacement by listening to the voices of the displaced:
With the more interpretive approach, narratives have become interesting also for
what they can tell us about how people themselves, as ‘experiencing subjects,’
make sense of violence and turbulent change. From personal accounts we may al
so glean the diversity behind over-generalized notions of ‘the refugee experience’.
However, Eastmond continues with the caveat that ‘narratives are vital in the research
process, but also offer considerable challenges as a methodology’ (2007: 249). In particu
lar, scholars undertaking such intensive anthropological work are confronted with the dif
ficulty of interpreting the stories they collect: ‘Representing stories in ways that do narra
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tors justice is not only a general problem of researchers’ authority, but one which needs
particular attention in relation to vulnerable categories of people’ (Eastmond 2007: 261).
In the field of political science a common qualitative approach is controlled case studies
and elite interviewing.This may be less intrusive and time consuming than the above-
mentioned narrative analysis and lends itself to comparative research questions, (p. 323)
with qualitative research designs developed to compare a wide variety of variables includ
ing types of violence, ethnic affiliation, host state characteristics, and historical context.
The ideal design is able to control for many explanatory variables while observing varia
tion in the factors of interest (George and Bennett 2005).
On the one hand, qualitative and micro-level research offers rich and deep data, allowing
accurate analysis of the cases being studied. On the other hand, however, there are limits
on the generalizability of such data. Indeed, qualitative scholars face a high barrier (al
though not an impossible one) to demonstrating generalizability, as the standards of evi
dence must be rigorous, particularly since much of the research is not perfectly replica
ble. Citing research which finds a consistent and direct relationship between violence and
displacement, Steele calls for ‘a more rigorous conceptualization of risk perception and
threat’ as a way to ‘illuminate existing findings and direct attention to areas for further
research’ (2009: 421). Case studies which are well selected for the purposes of controlled
comparison will offer the greatest potential for generalizability and theory building and
testing (see King, Keohane, and Verba 1994).
Quantitative
A strength of quantitative work is its ability to provide a stronger base to claim the gener
alizability of existing hypotheses, most notably that political violence is a major cause of
forced displacement. As Moore and Shellman comment, most of the existing work ‘as
sumes that the connection between state behavior and forced migration is obvious, yet
explicit causal arguments are rare’ (2004: 727). Sociologist Schmeidl developed a bench
mark study of the causes of forced migration using quantitative methods, considering the
existing causal explanations of refugee flows which include a variety of causal factors
such as human rights abuses, political oppression, economic factors, and civil wars. Qual
itative methods provided in-depth data for a variety of cases while quantitative methods
allowed a more generalizable analysis of these explanations. The result is broader knowl
edge of which causes—civil wars with international intervention and generalized violence
—have the most predictive power for large-scale forced migration (Schmeidl 1997). While
Schmeidl recognizes potential pitfalls in large-n statistical analysis, warning that ‘quanti
tative analysis can be only as good as its indicators’ (Schmeidl 1997: 305), this mixed-
methods research demonstrates a rigorous and theoretically rich use of regression analy
sis and highlights its value in building on existing research and testing hypotheses.
Later work has also examined hypotheses which have taken on the status of conventional
wisdom and yet remain under-examined. An example of such quantitative research is that
of Davenport, Moore, and Poe, who test the hypothesis that people flee due to perceived
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threats to their physical security, most often manifested during civil war, genocide, and vi
olent rebellions. As they state: ‘This is our basic argument: all other things constant, peo
ple leave their homes when they feel that their physical security is
threatened’ (Davenport et. al. 2003: 31). They further specify that countries which are
(p. 324) experiencing civil war or ‘organized violent rebellions’ are more likely to produce
refugees (Davenport, Moore, and Poe 2003: 34). Their findings in support of those hy
potheses are based on a statistical analysis of 129 countries over the years 1964–89.
Importantly, statistical research and dataset analysis does not necessitate a macro-level
perspective. For instance, Moore and Shellman examine individual decision making and
hypothesize that ‘one will leave one’s home when the probability of being a victim of per
secution becomes sufficiently high that the expected utility of leaving exceeds the expect
ed utility of staying’ (2004: 727–8). Within a rationalist framework and based on a global
sample covering the years 1952–95, they find that ‘the violent behavior of governments
and dissidents (and their interaction) are the primary determinants of forced migration
flows’ (2004: 742). In their conclusion, however, the authors caution that ‘these results—
like those of all large-N statistical analyses—are average effects: they tell us precious lit
tle about the specific impact of covariates in any given forced migration event’ (2004:
742). They subsequently recommend analysis of time series case studies to provide more
specific information. As a way to test these existing theories of behaviour, Adhikari exam
ines individual decision making through quantitative analysis, using a public opinion sur
vey undertaken in Nepal, and provides confirmation of existing hypotheses (2013: 82–9).
In addition to the value of testing existing hypotheses and generating theory, a significant
contribution of quantitative research is the collection and aggregation of data. New
datasets, particularly when in the public domain, enrich the wider literature as subse
quent research uses or further develops the datasets. The paucity of data on many vari
ables of interest hinders scholars, and the compilation of reliable data is therefore essen
tial. Writing from the qualitative perspective, Weiner warns ‘All aggregate statistics on
refugee flows should thus be interpreted with care’ (1996). For example, UNHCR data on
refugee demographics varies widely by country, creating challenges for researchers who
want to use age or gender as variables in a global dataset (UNHCR Global Trends 2011).
Two concerns are often mentioned regarding large-n studies in general. These are the
risk of reductionism and of reliance on poor data. Both of those will weaken or invalidate
findings. This critique is the inverse of the risk of qualitative data in which too much de
tail impedes comparison across cases. The more general the perspective, the harder it is
to capture the wide diversity of displacement crises. In every dataset, variation is sacri
ficed. This can result in incorrectly coded or missed cases. One example is the case of the
Rwandan refugee flows in 1994, commonly coded as a flight due to genocide. As one
large-n study explains:
In instances of genocide and politicide, governments seek to exterminate an entire
people and to force any who remain out of their sovereign territory. Obviously this
leads members of that group to quite rightly fear for their security and to flee.
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Collectively these personal decisions result in acute refugee/displacement situa
tions like that which occurred during the exodus from Rwanda, in 1994, when
nearly a third of the country’s 7.5 million people abandoned their homes.
(Davenport et al. 2003: 33; see also Schmeidl 1997 for similar coding)
(p. 325) The implicit assumption in this coding is that the two million refugees were flee
ing genocide. Yet in actuality, this massive refugee flow in the context of genocide was not
primarily composed of the group identified as the target of the genocide (the Tutsi), but
of group identified as the perpetrator group (the Hutu). This may be an unusual situation,
but considering that the Rwandan outflow was one of the largest and most violent of the
1990s, it is important since its miscoding could skew the findings.
Other methodological considerations pertain to the level of analysis. Micro-level studies
often focus on individual choice, whereas in many situations the decision to flee is a com
munal or family choice. Many of the rationalist frameworks take into account only an
individual’s fear for his or her own safety, rather than the more likely decision factor of
family safety. Threats to one’s children or other vulnerable relations are likely to prompt
flight, even if one is not as concerned about one’s own safety. For example, the threats of
abduction facing children in northern Uganda were calculated to terrorize adults, not
about their own safety, but about that of their children (Gates and Reich 2010). Rational
ist studies could fruitfully use the family or household as the unit of analysis in addition to
or rather than the individual.
Practical Approaches to Crisis and Conflict In
duced Displacement
The study of causes of forced migration is intrinsically related to the search for solutions,
both to migration crises and the larger contexts of violence. However, focusing myopical
ly on either causes or solutions narrows the usefulness of a research agenda, since, in or
der to identify meaningful solutions it is first necessary to learn about the causes of the
crisis. Indeed, understanding the characteristics of conflict can help predict, and hopeful
ly prevent, displacement as policymakers note warning signs. For example, wars in Iraq
and Syria created large outflows of refugees and IDPs which could have been predicted,
and even prevented, had more attention been paid to the causes of conflict induced dis
placement. This effort requires political attention and resources to ensure the validity of
research and the application of findings, rather than merely adopting an apolitical lens
and promoting a palliative humanitarian response.
At a practical level, the validity of the theoretical and methodological approaches used to
understand displacement rests on the quality of the data used to formulate and test expla
nations. Asking good questions about the causes of conflict- and crisis induced displace
ment is the first step. As discussed earlier, major areas of inquiry include individual deci
sion making, macro-level historical trends, and the relationships between cases of dis
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placement crises and their solutions. Answering these questions requires a rigorous
methodological framework, which, in turn, rests on reliable, accurate data. This is true
for large-n data sets, as well as for detailed field interviews.
(p. 326) In many instances, better information on specific social groups, processes, and
dynamics would remedy problems created by research based on faulty or incomplete da
ta. For example, while necessary to understand conflict induced displacement, numerous
information gaps remain vis-à-vis family decision-making processes in contexts of conflict
and crisis induced displacement. Filling these gaps, however, is problematic for numer
ous reasons. At the statistical level, the limitations of available demographic data pertain
ing to the periods before, during, and after displacement impede research on social and
economic trends affecting forced migration. A further challenge is related to the sharp in
crease in and attention to the internally displaced, as research on IDPs and the causes of
their flight is dependent on researchers’ ability to operate in dangerous areas. Indeed,
UNHCR expresses concern that the causes of displacement are increasingly related to in
ternal conflict and, thus, humanitarians work more in actual conflict zones that in the
past; the agency notes that ‘contemporary forms of violence force people to flee their
homes to destinations that are less predictable, less circumscribed, and often themselves
also insecure’ (UNHCR 2012: 12, quote p. 18). Finally, as many NGOs point out, numer
ous conflict zones, such as the civil war in Mali which flared in 2012, receive little atten
tion from policymakers, the public, or researchers. This leads to the question of how
knowledge about those crises can be generalizable to more high-profile situations.
In effect, humanitarian organizations sometimes have a privileged position to observe mi
cro-level phenomena, seeing trends before they reach the attention of scholars and poli
cymakers. However, despite their potential for complementarity, research, humanitarian
action, and public policy do not always fit together, as evidenced by the tension that ex
ists between scholarly endeavours and policy relevance. Indeed, Bakewell warns that a
strict pursuit of policy relevance can constrain research in a way that excludes important
populations and categories of explanations (Bakewell 2008). A different tension afflicts
humanitarians, as they are often hard pressed to concentrate on the causes of the crisis
when they are in an emergency situation, trying desperately to protect the rights of the
displaced, and find a solution to the crisis. These frictions cannot be easily resolved, even
though there is a general consensus about the ultimate desired outcome: the prevention
or resolution of refugee crises within the context of peace and security.
Conclusion
This chapter has explored diverse approaches to understanding the causes of conflict-
and crisis induced displacement, arguing that the existing academic literature on conflict
induced displacement would benefit from increased integration, rather than a continual
reinvention of typologies, datasets, and conceptualizations. Current scholarship often
takes place within narrow boundaries of discipline, geographic focus, and methodological
approach, and yet, ideally, qualitative and quantitative researchers alike (p. 327) would
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learn from the positive contributions of each type of scholarship, recognizing the benefits
of complementarity—one remedy is collaboration between scholars conducting intensive
field research and those collecting data for large-n analysis.
Importantly, conflict and crisis induced displacement cannot be viewed in isolation from
other causes. Resource scarcity, for example, can lead to political violence as different
groups struggle to control the government, and thereby control diverse resources. Ac
knowledging the interaction among various root causes can help explain the crisis. For
example, Newland notes that ‘a number of the ethnic conflicts that have erupted into vio
lence and generated refugees in the developing world can be characterized as resource
wars, in which battle lines reflect ethnic or tribal affiliations’ (Newland 1993: 90). Indeed,
UNHCR recognizes that ‘in contemporary contexts, the distinction between armed con
flict and violence used as a means of securing or reinforcing social or economic power is
often blurred’ (2012: 15). When scholars and policymakers remain narrowly focused on
their area of expertise, they may miss an important factor which could help solve the cri
sis—since displacement crises have so many interwoven causes, a holistic approach is
necessary for creating rigorous, generalizable explanations for forced migration.
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Notes:
(1) . Other types of crises, such as environmental and development issues which can
cause forced migration are addressed in Zetter and Morrissey’s and McDowell’s chapters
respectively (in this volume).
(2) . In this chapter, references to conflict induced displacement include the concept of
crisis.
(3) . Observing global trends, Schmeidl distinguishes among root causes, proximate con
ditions, and intervening factors, giving an overview of each type (Schmeidl 1997: 286). At
the regional level, Thorburn (1996) and Neumayer (2005) focus on root causes analysis in
the context of forced migration in Europe.
(4) . Schmeidl defines politicide as the attempt by a government to eliminate a target
group based on political orientation (1997: 294).
Sarah Kenyon Lischer
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Sarah Kenyon Lischer is Associate Professor of Political Science at the Department of
Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University.
