Article

Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict

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Abstract

The contemporary dynamics of proxy warfare will make it a significant feature of the character of conflict in the future. Andrew Mumford identifies four major changes in the nature of modern warfare and argues that they point to a potential increase in the engagement of proxy strategies by states: the decreased public and political appetite in the West for large-scale counter-insurgency ‘quagmires’ against a backdrop of a global recession; the rise in prominence and importance of Private Military Companies (PMCs) to contemporary war-fighting; the increasing use of cyberspace as a platform from which to indirectly wage war; and the ascent of China as a superpower.

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... Devletler, kendi askeri güçlerini doğrudan kullanmak yerine, yerel milis gruplar veya diğer devlet dışı aktörler aracılığıyla çatışmalara müdahale etmektedir. Bu durum, vekil güçlerin eylemlerinden sorumlu tutulması gereken devletlerin kim olduğu konusunda belirsizlik yaratmaktadır (Mumford, 2013). ...
... Devletler, kendi askeri güçlerini kullanmak yerine, vekil güçler aracılığıyla çatışmalara müdahale etmektedir. Bu durum, vekil güçlerin eylemlerinden hangi devletin sorumlu tutulacağı konusunda belirsizliklere yol açmakta ve uluslararası hukukun bu tür dolaylı savaş yöntemlerine yanıt verme kapasitesini zayıflatmaktadır (Mumford, 2013). ...
... Devletler, kendi askeri güçlerini doğrudan kullanmak yerine, yerel milis grupları veya diğer devlet dışı aktörleri destekleyerek müdahalelerde bulunmaktadır. Bu durum, hedef ülkelerin egemenlik haklarının ihlal edilmesine ve iç işlerine doğrudan müdahale edilmesine yol açmaktadır (Mumford, 2013). Vekil güçlerin kullanımı, uluslararası hukukta sorumluluğun belirlenmesi konusunda da belirsizlikler yaratmaktadır (Mumford, 2013). ...
Research Proposal
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ÖZET: Bu çalışma, bölgesel güçlerin asimetrik savaş taktikleri ve hibrit savaş stratejilerinin uluslararası güvenlik üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Araştırmanın amacı, bu stratejilerin günümüzde nasıl uygulandığını ve uluslararası ilişkilerde nasıl bir değişim yarattığını analiz etmektir. Çalışma, mevcut literatürden farklı olarak, hibrit savaş stratejilerinin özellikle bölgesel güçler tarafından kullanılması üzerinde durmaktadır. Kısıtlar arasında, sınırlı veri erişimi ve konunun dinamik doğası yer almaktadır. Bulgular, bu stratejilerin uluslararası güvenlikteki belirsizlikleri artırdığını ve geleneksel askeri yöntemlerin ötesine geçen etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. ABSTRACT: This study examines the asymmetric warfare tactics and hybrid warfare strategies of regional powers and their impact on international security. The aim of the research is to analyze how these strategies are applied in contemporary settings and how they create changes in international relations. Unlike existing literature, this study focuses on the use of hybrid warfare strategies specifically by regional powers. Constraints include limited data access and the dynamic nature of the topic. Findings indicate that these strategies increase uncertainties in international security and create effects that go beyond traditional military methods. https://ulesam.org/2843.html
... Direkt olarak çatışmaktan kaçınan fakat çatışma bölgesinde ulusal hedefleri olan iki ülkenin direkt olarak çatışmaya girmek yerine yerel, üçüncül aktörleri kullanması olarak da tanımlanabilecek bu savaşların tanımlamasına yönelik çeşitli eleştiriler de yapılmıştır (Mumford, 2013). Deutsch'un yaklaşımını fazlasıyla devlet merkezli bulan Andrew Mumford'un tabiriyle vekâlet savaşları; spesifik amaçların güdüldüğü alanlarda (mesela bir otoriter rejimin devrilmesi) herhangi bir risk ya da sorumluluk almadan, makul finansal harcamayla gerçe kleşt irilm ekted ir. ...
... Düşük risk, düşük finansal yük, devlet dışı aktörlerin katılımı (son dönemde özel güvenlik şirketleri) sayesinde, vekillerin kullanımı halen devam etmektedir. Tanımlamanın da teferruatlarını sunduğu üzere, vekiller genel anlamda kinetik (askeri) unsurlardan müteşekkil aktörlerdir (Mumford, 2013). ...
Article
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Z Bu çalışmada insanlık tarihine eşdeğer ömrü ile dönüşen modern savaşlar ve aktörleri incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Tarihsel süreç içerisinde öne çıkan ana görüşler, stratejiler ve bilhassa Vestfalya Barışı sonrası savaş ve savaş düşüncesinde yaşanan temel dönüşüm ele alınarak, günümüz savaşlarının güncel nihai formu ve aktörlerine ışık tutulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bunlara ek olarak literatürde tarihsel olarak ön plana çıkan görüşler incelenmiş, devlet dışı aktörlerin sahneye belirgin bir şekilde çıktığı çağımızda aktör sınıflandırması yapılarak karmaşık kavramlar teknik özellikleri ve devlet ile olan bağları etrafında ele alınmaya çalışılmıştır. Şiddetin devlet tekelinden çıktığı modern çatışmalarda kullanılan aktörler, temel özellikleri ve günümüz aktörlerinin sebep olabileceği muhtemel durum-lar ele alınmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda 2016'da Andreas Krieg tarafından çağımızın savaşları olarak nitelendirilen "Niyabet Savaşları" ve sebep olabilecekleri olası sonuçlar, bu savaşın aktörle-rinin muhtemel sınıflandırılması ele alınmıştır. Güncel çatışma sahalarından bazı örnekler ile bu husus izah edilmeye çalışılmış, niyabet savaşlarının ana aktörü olan naiflerin özellikleri ve onların bir aşama sonrası olarak addedilen "Açgözlü Naipler" ele alınmıştır. Bir ABD vekili olarak ortaya çıkan Halife Hafter'in Libya iç savaşı esnasında naipleşmesi ve sonrasında ABD'nin rakibi Rusya gibi ülkelerle iş birliği yapması, niyabet savaşlarının kontrolü oldukça zor bir savaş formu olarak belirdiğini göstermektedir. Anahtar Kavramlar: Yeni savaşlar, vekâlet savaşları, niyabet savaşları, hibrit savaşlar, savaş çalışmaları ABSTRACT This study has tried to examine modern wars and their actors that have been transformed with a lifetime equivalent to the history of humanity. It has been tested to shed light on the current final form and actors of today's wars by considering the main views, strategies, and especially the basic transformation in the thought of war and the war after the Peace of Westphalia. In addition to these, historically prominent theories in the literature have been examined, and in our age, when non-state actors appear on the scene, actor classification has been made, and complex concepts have been tried to be discussed around their technical characteristics and ties with the state. An attempt has been made to analyse the actors employed in contemporary conflicts where violence is not monopolised by the state, their fundamental characteristics, and the potential situations they can instigate using Andreas Krieg's concept of "Surrogate Warfare." Besides that, the concept of "Rapacious Surrogates" is conceptualized and explained. Khalifa Haftar, a Libyan warlord, initially emerged as a proxy for the United States but later assumed the role of a surrogate during the Libyan civil war. The collaboration between Haftar and adversaries of the United States, such as Russia, highlights the complexities associated with managing these actors and engaging in surrogate warfare.
... In his turn, Rauta also emphasizes the importance of "a strategic understanding of why proxy wars are waged" (Rauta 2020, 5). Building also on Mumford's (2013) proposal, Rauta has moved on to conceptualize proxy wars as "strategic bargains waged on more complex grounds than risk avoidance, cost efficiency and deniability" (Rauta 2020, 3). ...
Chapter
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By examining the public discourse on the proxy wars, the scholarly discussions and some of the newly proposed perspectives on reconceptualizing proxy warfare, and how Iran sees the matter, this chapter seeks to address the following two sets of questions. First, how best one may understand the relations between the Iranian state including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force, on the one hand, and the Palestinian militants, on the other, and particularly whether the relations may best be captured by the oft-applied “proxy warfare” perspective or not. Second, relatedly, why Iran supports the Palestinian militants, and particularly, how Iran understands what it is doing. This chapter draws three general conclusions. First, it is untenable to think that Iran is engaging in “proxy wars” in the classical sense of the term, that is, for cutting human, transactional, material, and political costs and benefiting from operational ambiguity and deniability. Second, from the point of view of the Iranian state, those “resistance” groups are not clients or surrogates. Rather, they are primarily treated as “allies.” Third, the Iranian support to the “resistance” groups may continue as long as Iran benefits strategically from the effects and consequences of the activities that those groups engage in with the support of the Iranian state.
... For instance, anecdotal evidence suggests that many Moroccans perceive the Polisario Front as an Algerian puppet. 6 While this dissertation acknowledges the merits and limitations of the "proxy" lens in analysing armed group-state interactions, it cautions against an overreliance on what can be termed proxyism (see Mumford 2013;Wither 2020). This refers to the exclusive use of this lens, neglecting other complementary analytical perspectives, and consequently downplaying the capacity for independent action of armed groups. ...
Thesis
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How armed groups legitimise themselves on the international stage is a critical question given the considerable influence they wield in global politics. Yet, it has seldom been systematically investigated. By addressing this question, this thesis fills a gap on the empirical understanding and theorisation of the rebels’ international legitimacy politics. This lacuna persists at the intersection of International Relations (IR), legitimacy theory, and conflict research. The study challenges the marginalisation of armed groups in legitimacy research in IR and exposes the limitations of classical legitimacy theory in contexts of political disorder where armed groups are the agents seeking legitimacy. The study also critiques traditional IR and conflict research perspectives in which rebels’ foreign politics is often viewed from a state-centric lens or compartmentalised. While emerging debates in conflict research have paid attention to rebel legitimacy beyond the domestic terrain, these debates have fallen short of advancing a holistic understanding of the matter. The thesis, by contrast, eschews the outside-in analysis of armed groups as it develops a heuristic framework—integrating armed action, identity projection, and communication strategies—to unravel the intricacies of their legitimacy. Through a comparative case study of the key conflict players, the Syrian Kurdish People’s Defence Units (YPG) and the Afghan Taliban, utilising in-depth interviews and textual analysis of primary sources, this thesis yields four key insights. First, moving beyond the classical dyadic (two-actor) conceptualisation of legitimacy relations, rebel legitimacy is best understood as a triadic (three-actor) dynamic. Second, regional support serves as a stepping stone for international recognition. Third, although violence is a double-edged sword, it remains armed groups’ primary repertoire for contesting legitimacy. Fourth, rebels with values and identities deviating from Western norms face additional hurdles in their quest for international integration. Finally, the thesis’ emphasis on armed groups as agents co-shaping international relations, reveals two promising future research avenues. One of them is how armed groups influence inter-state relations. The other is how rebels act simultaneously as disruptors and reproducers of established power and normative configurations in international order. Exploring these avenues holds the potential for opening up new ways for understanding international relations and interrogating mainstream IR theorisation.
... Proxy warfare has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and the displacement of millions of people both domestically and abroad. The Syrian war might be described as anarchic surrogate warfare (Mumford 2013) because of the growing yet widespread broad network engagement, seeking maximalist self-interests and coercive goals. Probably this most ungentlemanly warfare ever committed by the Western world against powerless nations around the world is just a rebranded form of special task force inherited from past nations such as the Greeks (Spartans), Persians (Nizaris), Chinese emperors (Sun Tzu's art of war), and Japan (ninjas) (Kok Wey 2019)the ugliest form of security and foreign policy practice. ...
Article
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The Western International Relations (WIRs) studies have been lauded for centuries owing to idealism innovation with all sorts of 'ism' (realism, liberalism, structuralism, internationalism, modernism, and imperialism) by various schools of thought with massive volumes of political studies aimed at re-creating the global order. But, regretfully, these WIRs have severely disregarded the International Relations (IRs) legacy of Al-Andalus with 800 years of the political establishment in Spain. Al-Andalus was the reason for the American continent by Columbus right after it fell. Besides, it had inspired European Renaissance, and imperialism dreams revived political ideologies among the mixed heritage known as Graeco-Romanesque, Judeo-Arab (Shamsie 2016), but today, nothing except purely theological locus. This study attempt to analyse the International Relations IRs from industry weltanschauung based on the powerless nation case study. The analytical areal divided into sixth sub-topics: The critique over western IRs philosophy: The Integrative International Relations as holistic match: The Malaysia-China-US trade and bilateral relations: The South China Sea Economy and Biodiversity Worth: ASEAN as a Peacekeeper Guardian for the South China Sea (SCS) and South East Asia (SEA). The last section is about Malaysia's comprehensive bilateral and multilateral IRs. This study expects to provide new insight into IRs formulation for the benefit: political policymakers, strengthening WIRs and IRs academic world, thus equally beneficial to postgraduate students. Analytical review based on 120 selected articles written by field experts, security journalists, army people, international relations scholars (both from the Muslim and Western world), secret service representatives, newspaper testimony, and international organisations. Keywords: Malaysia, International Integrative Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral and Multilateral Relations, South East Asia, Middle-East, South China Sea, ASEAN, Jihad, New World Order
... A szponzorállam proxykra gyakorolt befolyásában fontos szerepet játszanak a proxyk rendelkezésére bocsátott anyagi források. A proxy típusú konfliktusok jellemzően olyan országokban alakulnak ki, ahol a szponzorállamok a már meglévő belső feszültségeket ki tudják használni (Leeds, 2003;Mumford, 2013). ...
Article
A tanulmány célja a líbiai konfliktussal kapcsolatos olasz diskurzus biztonságiasítának vizsgálata politikatudományi szempontból. A diskurzuselemzés során Nvivo-szoftverrel vizsgáltam az olasz miniszterelnökök, külügy-, belügy- és védelmi miniszterek Líbiával kapcsolatos kommunikációját 2011 és 2021 között. A kutatás fókuszában a biztonságiasítás jelensége állt, amely csak szektorálisan jellemezte az olaszországi politikai kommunikációt. Az eredmények rávilágítanak az olasz politika reakcióira és prioritásaira 2011–2021 között, és hozzájárulnak a biztonságpolitikai diskurzus és a politikai döntéshozatal mélyebb megértéséhez a líbiai konfliktus kontextusában.
... 1) There is a party that becomes a proxy (State / Non-State Actor) 2) There is a strategic goal 3) The existence of an indirect involvement (indirect involvement) (Mumford, 2013) Some of the elements above can of course be used as a measure to classify a war/conflict as a Proxy War. ...
Article
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Along with the development of science and technology, there has also been a shift in the form of war which we know is synonymous with military force, firearms and artillery explosions. Marked by the emergence of Proxy War as a new style in the world of war. The absence of direct involvement and the existence of competition between the great powers between the parties is one of the characteristics of the Proxy War itself but the Proxy War itself still has an impact that is as dangerous as a normal war, because Proxies can be formed from within/outside the country which makes it be difficult to detect. This paper aims to find out how Proxy War exists in historical developments and to see and understand Proxy War in the present which is very closely related to cyber warfare. The method used was a normative legal research method whose research focuses on the relationship between norms and predicts their development in the future. The findings showed that proxy war as a new style of warfare creates its own worries. Because the close link between Proxy War and Cyber War can cause national instability in a country. If propaganda that occurs in cyberspace is spread widely and systematically, this has the potential to cause riots within a country.
... The term "cold war" refers to a period when the two superpowers supported opposing factions in significant regional conflicts known as "proxy wars," rather than engaging in extensive direct combat. For example, during the 1990s, the United States of America and Western countries pretended to assist Zimbabwe financially and infrastructurally to hoodwink the nation into supporting them against Russia (Mumford, 2013). Zimbabwe was advised to adopt the Economic Structural Adjustment Programme (ESAP), which dented relations between the state and the citizenry. ...
Article
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Libraries strive to promote societal harmony and conversations, as stated in S.D.G. number 16 on Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions. The Library has traditionally been a communal hub for knowledge generation, recreation, exchange, and social conversations. The role of libraries extends beyond the distribution of justice-related knowledge, as they also function as safe spaces, meeting places, and centres for societal discourse on peace and conflict resolution. This paper aims to identify ways the Libraries could help resolve political, social, and economic conflict in Zimbabwean communities. The study is a desktop study, which is based on the materials published by other researchers on related topics. Lack of Information is a common cause of conflicts like those that are political, social, and economic. The study concluded that Zimbabwean libraries are not doing enough to support peacemaking and conflict resolution. The libraries lack the resources and programs that promote peace and mutual understanding among community members. Zimbabwean libraries can be reconfigured to take the lead in supporting efforts for fostering peace. Keywords: Libraries, peacebuilding, conflict resolution, Zimbabwe
... They, on the other hand, can acquire by the proxy relationship authentic local knowledge (e.g. cultural and linguistic knowledge), and locally potent associates, with the help of whom they can influence the conflict and reach their long-term goals at the same time (Mumford, 2013b In a proxy war the supporter does not participate with their army and secret agents, but trades weapons, provides financial sources, and gives advice, including information, so they save their most developed weapons and the lives of their soldiers. They show their interest in the outcome of the conflict by the fact of the intervention; however, the indirect nature of the intervention means that the conflict does not link to their essential interests (e.g. to the security of their territory and their political life). ...
Article
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Since the Second World War, proxy war has become one of the most widespread forms of war. One recent example, the war of Ukraine and its supporters against Russia, is being fought close to Europe. Although the theoretical features of proxy war in general have been researched in recent decades, the character of proxy war has changed since that time, which makes it necessary to study these features again. This article examines the concept of proxy war, and the ethical and particularly the justice-related implications of that concept, with the help of military philosophical and military ethical enquiry, and finds that the new style proxy relationship contains the satisfaction of the interests of the supporter and the supported at the same time, which, however, can hamper the consolidation of the conflict and reaching a lasting peace.
... Proxy conflict is sought by powerful states, because this way they can pursue their strategic goals and at the same time avoid direct engagement, involvement in a costly, bloody and uncertain conflict. From these considerations, we can state that the proxy war is a hybrid war, which uses conventional and non-conventional means, in physical, informational and virtual dimensions, to achieve with minimal efforts and with reduced exposure some objectives of strategic importance, proxy wars being the "product of a relationship between a benefactor, who is a state or non-state actor external to the dynamic of an existing conflict, and the chosen proxies who are the conduit for the benefactor's weapons, training and funding" [4]. The emergence, evolution and completion of proxy war can be influenced by complex factors such as geopolitical, economic, political, ideological, cultural and last but not least military interests [5]. ...
Article
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Proxy wars are a form of confrontation whose origins are lost in the mists of history. In the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century, this type of war experienced a sharp development due to the changes that took place on the international scene. Due to the fact that the great powers avoided direct confrontation during the Cold War, for fear that this confrontation would degenerate into a new conventional or even nuclear world war, they chose to use proxy warfare as a pressure relief valve, a way to put the opponent in difficulty, to gain influence or even economic, political or other benefits. Proxy wars can take place both between states and between groups within a state, or between a terrorist group, paramilitary organisation, etc. and a state, and the common element is given by the fact that one or both of the parties benefit from external support, especially in the form of armaments, ammunitions, intelligence, expertise, advice from a sponsor of which it becomes an agent. In exchange for the sponsor's support, the agent offers him a series of advantages, influence, etc. The sponsor obtains strategic advantages without direct involvement, without exposing himself and without settling national and international image costs, while the agent is actively involved in combat operations, it is he who must ensure the achievement of objectives to satisfy both his own expectations and those of the sponsor.
... Ancaman dari luar negeri dan dalam negeri kini menjadi kabur melalui adanya konsep proxy war (perang proksi) yang secara faktual telah menggantikan era perang terbuka dalam upaya penyelesaian konflik dan persaingan antar negara. Perang proksi ini secara umum dapat diartikan sebagai konflik di antara negara yang melibatkan pihak ketiga secara tidak langsung dalam rangka mempengaruhi hasil akhir yang secara strategis (strategic outcome) mendukung faksi pilihannya (Mumford, 2013). ...
Article
Korupsi sebagai metode perang proksi adalah upaya mempengaruhi kebijakan dalam negeri melalui pendekatan secara legal atau ilegal kepada badan hukum atau perorangan yang memegang otoritas publik atau terkait dengan kepentingan publik. Kepolisian (Polri) sebagai salah satu instansi yang berwenang melakukan pemberantasan korupsi dituntut untuk mengoptimalkan pemberantasan korupsi di Indonesia melalui fungsinya di bidang pencegahan dan penindakan atau penegakan hukum. Sehingga perlu suatu reformulasi dalam pemberantasan korupsi di Indonesia, khususnya dalam perspektif Kepolisian menghadapi korupsi sebagai ancaman perang proksi. Urgensi dari tulisan ini adalah untuk memberikan masukan tentang perlunya reformulasi pemberantasan korupsi di Indonesia khususnya yang dilaksanakan oleh Polri melalui fungsinya di bidang pencegahan dan penindakan atau penegakan hukum melalui penguatan organisasi Lembaga Anti Korupsi Polri dalam sebuah struktur yang tersentralisasi. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penulisan ini adalah yuridis normatif, dengan spesifikasi penelitian adalah deskriptif analitis serta dengan menggunakan teknik pengumpulan data melalui penelitian kepustakaan berupa penelaahan bahan kepustakaan dalam bentuk dokumen maupun peraturan perundang – undangan yang berlaku.Dari pembahasan yang dilakukan dapat ditarik kesimpulan tentang perlunya reformulasi pemberantasan korupsi dalam menghadapi ancaman perang proksi di Indonesia melalui penyempurnaan desain struktur organisasi anti korupsi Polri dalam suatu regulasi internal (Peraturan Polri) dan harus ditegakkan secara konsisten.
... While the presence of physical weaponry or combatants often makes the origin of kinetic attacks easier and faster to identify, there are also cases of physical operations where attribution is not certain-such as when actors deny involvement in 'grey zone conflict' or use proxies-this situation is relatively rare compared to the cyber domain (Cormac and Aldrich 2018;Johnson 2020;Mumford 2013). In addition, the physical evidence involved in kinetic operations usually makes attribution possible (Cormac and Aldrich 2018), even in 'tough' cases (consider, for example, Russia's "little green men" in the 2014 Ukraine crisis). ...
Article
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This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been advanced. First, “means-based” theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less likely to escalate than kinetic attacks. Second, “effects-based” theory argues an attack’s material consequences determine the likelihood of retaliation. We advance a third perspective, arguing that the covertness of an attack has the largest effect on its propensity towards escalation. We identify two characteristics of covertness that affect support for retaliation: the certainty of attribution and its timing. We use a survey experiment to assess public support for retaliation, while varying the means, effects, timing, and attribution certainty of attacks. We find no evidence for the effects-based approach, instead finding high levels of support for retaliation regardless of an attack’s scale. We find that the most significant contributor to support for retaliation is an attack’s covertness.
... Even when it is imperative but the majority of the people disapproved of it, the government is bound by that decision therefore making proxy engagement a window for such government. According to Mumford (2013), Government of some nations, particularly liberal democracies may chose to engage in proxy warfare despite military superiority, when majority of their citizens are opposed to entering a conventional war. He stated further that the US adopted this strategy in Vietnam as a result of the so called Vietnam syndrome of extreme war weariness among the American population. ...
Article
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The end of the Second World War brought about the emergence of two super powers, the United States and the Soviet Union that assumed major key players in global Politics. The two superpowers adopted expansionist policies in their attempt to build alliances so as to implement and protect their diverse ideological interests. In the process, proxy wars ensued in different part of the globe. Adopting secondary source of data and Content Analysis as well as Power Theory, the paper examined the roles of the super powers in proxy wars and the consequences on global peace. The paper discovered that the Super-powers dominated the global political system through proxy wars such as the Vietnam War, Korean War and the Cuba Missile Crisis among others. The paper further noted the consequences of proxy war on global peace to include arms proliferations and the development of nuclear weapons, high human fatalities and destruction of major cities and the rise in global terrorist groups and attacks. The paper made recommendations among others that global ideological rigidity should be softened to accommodate varieties and the United Nations should give more attention to the situation in Korea Peninsula to prevent the repeat of the 1950s.
... As such, instead of the warring parties engaging in a direct war with each other, they support foreign militaries or ANSAs to act as their proxies against the adversary. 6 Given the potential political, economic, and human costs of engaging in direct warfare, global and regional powers often resort to armed non-state proxies as a readily available and low-cost way of power projection. 7 Those non-state actors might have initially arisen for ideological, economic, and political reasons, to combat foreign threats, fight for independence, or simply seek power. ...
Article
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Over the past two decades, there has been a growing tendency among Middle Eastern states to use armed non-state actors (ANSAs) as proxies, making them a constant feature of regional conflicts. Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun brigades are two recent examples of state-sponsored ANSAs, which have played a significant role as Iran’s proxies in the course of the Syrian conflict. This article seeks to answer the question as to what role the Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun brigades have played in Iran’s military strategy in Syria and how effective they have been in securing Tehran’s strategic interests in the war-torn country. The article argues that following the outbreak of the Syrian crisis—as the most critical challenge to Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East over the past decade—and due to Iran’s restraints in sustaining a large-scale direct military presence in Syria, the two Afghan and Pakistani brigades acted as Iran’s ground forces, reducing human and financial costs of a direct military engagement for Tehran. The effective role played by the two brigades was mainly reflected in the four strategic battles of Aleppo, Southern Syria, Palmyra, and Eastern Syria.
... Whether driven by ideological zeal, nationalism, or money, non-state actors have long been a persistent phenomenon in international conflict, including cyber conflict. 1 For instance, in 2001, Chinese hacktivists, encouraged by the state, targeted US government websites in retaliation for the EP-3 incident [24][25][26][27]. Taiwanese networks were also targeted during a period of growing cross-Strait tensions that same year [28]. ...
Article
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Cyber proxies—whether mercenaries, patriotic zealots, pranksters, or simply allies of convenience—are thought to be widespread. By outsourcing to proxies, this logic goes, a host government can plausibly deny its involvement in operations that advance its military and foreign policy aims. This presents central challenge to empirical researchers. If the value of proxies derives from their deniability, this same quality should mean that implausibly deniable types—the types sponsors supposedly wish to avoid—receive disproportionate attention in data and discourse. Accordingly, proxy activity appears to have flagged across several widely used datasets, depending on how the data are parsed. Do proxies still pay? A formal model is used to hypothesize about how new norms of attribution (specifically, the willingness of victims to make accusations on the basis of circumstantial evidence) can encourage capable states to insource more than they outsource. In the model, victims have the power to decide whether denials are plausible. “Usual suspects” who learn that they will take the heat regardless have fewer incentives to rely on proxies. Empirical evidence on insourcing patterns offers backdoor support for this proposition. The findings should decrease our confidence in plausible deniability as a logic for why states outsource to proxies. The paper joins an emerging body of research that has questioned the role of plausible deniability in covert action, including cyber conflict.
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh teknik restrukturisasi kognitif dalam mengurangi prokrastinasi akademik pada mahasiswa. Prokrastinasi akademik merupakan perilaku menunda-nunda penyelesaian tugas yang dapat berdampak negatif terhadap prestasi akademik dan kesehatan mental mahasiswa. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah kuantitatif dengan pendekatan eksperimen, melibatkan pre-test dan post-test untuk mengukur tingkat prokrastinasi sebelum dan setelah intervensi. Sampel penelitian terdiri dari mahasiswa yang memiliki tingkat prokrastinasi tinggi. Hasil uji hipotesis menunjukkan adanya hubungan signifikan antara teknik restrukturisasi kognitif dan penurunan tingkat prokrastinasi akademik (r = 0.502, p = 0.002). Selain itu, analisis regresi menunjukkan bahwa teknik restrukturisasi kognitif memberikan kontribusi sebesar 25,2% dalam pengurangan prokrastinasi. Temuan ini mendukung efektivitas teknik ini dalam membantu mahasiswa mengatasi prokrastinasi akademik, sehingga dapat meningkatkan produktivitas dan kesejahteraan mental mereka. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi penting bagi pengembangan intervensi konseling berbasis kognitif untuk mengurangi prokrastinasi akademik pada mahasiswa. Kata Kunci: Prokrastinasi akademik, restrukturisasi kognitif, teknik konseling, mahasiswa, pengurangan prokrastinasi.
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This chapter further extends the theoretical framework established in the prior chapters of this book to develop a set of hypotheses relating to the political economy of international relations. This chapter predicts that in both democratic and nondemocratic states, the number of competing economic elites is related to the conduct of foreign policy, specifically the degree to which foreign policy actions and objectives are oriented around the provision of private or public goods. In states where the number of economic elites is smaller, leaders are more likely to be incentivized to pursue private goods in foreign policy engagements, for example by securing market access for particular firms. In states where the number of economic elites is greater, leaders are more likely to be incentivized to pursue public goods in foreign policy engagements, for example by supporting broad trade agreements focused on market access. These propositions are explored using a qualitative case analysis comparing US and Chinese foreign policy objectives.
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There are two dominant perspectives in the literature regarding the concept of proxy war, which was forgotten in the post-Cold War era but is now regaining popularity. The group led by Karl Deutsch defines proxy war as the intervention of other states in a civil war in a country, and the situation where the civil war in question gains an interstate conflict nature. The other group argues that proxy war was a common form of warfare even before 1945. This study problematizes two perspectives. Accordingly, a new conceptual framework of proxy wars is constructed, aiming to eliminate the conceptual ambiguity caused by these two perspectives.
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The aim of this article is to examine and evaluate Iran's indirect military intervention through the utilization of local non-state actors in the conflict zones of the Middle East. Particular attention was paid to the gray zone confrontation between Iran and the U.S.-led alliance after the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011. What are the characteristics of Iran's proxy warfare (PW) dynamics, and to what extent has this strategy been effective in attaining its objectives? In this regard, PW theory has been chosen as the main theoretical framework, with its most recent advances in the literature. The paper argues that Iran's adoption of PW strategy ultimately aims a) to reduce perceived threats originating from the U.S.-led alliance, b) deter potential military interventions on its soil, and c) render the U.S. presence in the Middle East burdensome with the ultimate aim of its withdrawal from the region over the long term. Moreover, it contends that although it comes at a cost and poses significant risks for Tehran, this strategy demonstrated effectiveness within the context of Iran's prioritized principles. A primary contributing factor to Iran's effective implementation of this strategy lies in its partnership style with its clients. Indeed, besides their strategic objectives, the main factor ensuring the resilience of the proxy alliance is the ideological affinity between the Iranian regime and the client forces.
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العدالة الجنائية الدولية تواجه عددًا متزايدًا من التحديات، بما في ذلك العدد الكبير من النزاعات المسلحة غير الدولية، التي تندلع لأهداف خارجية متعددة. سيحاول البحث الإجابة عن الأسئلة الإشكالية المركزية التالية: لماذا تُنسب المسؤولية الجنائية الفردية إلى الأفراد الذين يقودون النزاعات المسلحة ويرتكبون داخلها انتهاكات جسيمة، في حين لا تُنسب نفس المسؤولية إلى من يدعم الجماعات المسلحة وكذلك من يحفز على إذكاء النزاعات المسلحة غير الدولية من خلال الأدوات الخارجية، بمعنى آخر عن طريق الحروب بالوكالة؟ هل يواجه القانون الدولي العام والقانون الجنائي الدولي، بشكل خاص، حالة من الانفصال والتجزئة فيما يتعلق بتحديد مسؤولية الدول التي تدعم الجماعات المسلحة؟ بمعنى آخر، هل يتم تحميل المسؤولية عن التدخل بعيدًا عن النتيجة الطبيعية (التبعية) لتتحمل الدول نفسها مسؤولية جنائية فردية؟ هل يمكن القول إن هذا التجزؤ يقوض العدالة الجنائية التي يُفترض أن تحكم جميع الحالات التي يمكن أن تتسبب في انتهاكات جسيمة للقانون الإنساني الدولي؟ هذه الأسئلة وغيرها سيتم تناولها ودراستها للوصول إلى تحديد العقبات التي تواجه العدالة الجنائية الدولية في المسؤولية المباشرة وغير المباشرة للدول والأفراد.
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Modern weapons of mass destruction make direct military confrontation pointless. At the same time, geopolitical rivalry not only does not cease, but acquires new forms. In the current information and digital reality, one of the main tools of rivalry is information and psychological operations. The article considers the evolution of the concept of «hybrid warfare», analyzes the role and place of its information component, identifies the main techniques of information confrontation.
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This article analyses the feasibility and possible utilization of proxy forces in the counter-insurgency operations. It discusses the characteristics, sponsorship and likely pattern of their employment. A detail analysis of benefits and risks of the employment of proxy forces also have been conducted. Data was collected and examined from a comprehensive variety of secondary source documents. A descriptive, qualitative research methodology has been adopted. A good number of pertinent books and publications have been consulted and relevant case studies are analyzed. An effort has been taken to ascertain the possible areas for further study. According to the present trend, the utilization of proxy forces might become the norm in the upcoming days. Although the control and management of these unique forces are challenging, being a substitute of regular force, those are adept of fetching success in counter-insurgency operations. Highlights  Basic idea of proxy force in general.  Ideology and benefits of the sponsors and proxy forces.  Risks and benefits of utilizing the proxy force in counter-insurgency operations. Suggested control and management mechanism of proxy forces.
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This chapter focuses on the Cold War, which set conditions for how proxies are used today. In radically bipolar orders, like the Cold War, the need for the two great powers to avoid direct confrontation increases. Where those powers are nuclear-armed, that urgency increases. Under these conditions, proxy wars become essential for seeking advantage, forcing lesser powers to choose sides. Proxies thus allowed the United States and the Soviet Union to compete globally, often failing to learn the lessons of previous proxy conflicts. The United States, for example, began its involvement in Vietnam as a proxy war but was eventually dragged into a larger, direct conflict, which it eventually abandoned rather than win. The Soviets repeated that mistake a decade later in Afghanistan. In Africa and Latin America, the two superpowers sometimes intentionally and sometimes unintentionally provoked or escalated wars that may not have otherwise happened. The history of the Cold War is filled with many instances where actors were aware of the moral concerns of proxy war but were pressured by the dynamics of the relationship to ignore them.
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Moral hazards arise when sponsors and proxies can redistribute risk in ways that enable potentially harmful outcomes. This redistribution risks creating self-defeating incentives because one will not experience the full range of harms those risks entail. These incentives are self-defeating in at least two ways: (1) encouraging more risk-taking inappropriately expands the scope of the conflict and (2) taking those risks results in greater suffering or violations of moral norms. These hazards arise because sponsor and proxy interests, will, and capabilities often vary. These variations can lead to divergent interests and overly optimistic estimates about the actual cost of war that can drag both parties into a conflict they might otherwise have avoided. Even if one cannot prevent the conflict, introducing a proxy relationship can motivate others to join the fight, thus escalating it. Moreover, once the fighting has started, the proxy’s failure to abide by jus in bello norms can implicate the sponsor in war crimes and other atrocities. Finally, these moral hazards can impact well after the conflict is over as military equipment no longer needed for the fight diffuses into other militant and criminal hands, making conflict more likely or more brutal elsewhere.
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The term “hybrid” can trigger a new conceptualization of dominance and victory. Hybrid threats are innovative, adaptable, and complex, aiming to surprise the target and gain the initiative. They take place at multiple levels, from tactical, to operational and strategic, and at the same time, horizontally by employing various tools, as well as vertically with the fluctuation of intensity depending on the situation. In parallel, they are structured in such a way as to effectively target the opponent’s weaknesses (Śliwa et al., Estonian J. Military Stud. Sõjateadlane 7:86–108, 2018). One could imagine hybridity with the meteorological phenomenon of a rainbow, where, by reflection, refraction, and dispersion of light in water droplets, a spectrum of light appears in the sky. Additionally, a rainbow is not located at a specific location from the observer, but comes from an optical illusion caused by water droplets viewed from a certain angle relative to a light source. Even if an observer sees another observer who seems “under” or “at the end” of a rainbow, the second observer will see a different rainbow—farther off—at the same angle as seen by the first observer (https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/rainbow/#:~:text=When%20sunlight%20hits%20a%20rain,is%20separated%2C%20producing%20a%20rainbow (last access 26.01.2023)). In the international relations and military studies field, the light rays can be the available instruments of power an international actor has available, so by the way they are used against an opponent, a spectrum of these appears on the surface. When someone tries to detect and define the threat, it is placed in the “gray zone” between war and peace, forcing him to wonder, what might be the appropriate response (Julio, Hybrid warfare: NATO’s new strategic challenge? 166 DSC 15 E bis, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, p 3, 2015).What are the lenses through which each actor sees the environment around him and how does he understand a possible threat, a potential threat or an immediate danger to his national interest? In the above context, the hybrid threats concept attempts to synthesize a complex and evolving phenomenon, where state and nonstate actors use diverse means and tools to influence different forms of decision-making, undermine citizens’ trust in democratic processes and institutions, exacerbate political polarization, and spread confusion about geopolitical events with the ultimate goal of destabilizing the victim while reinforcing the political vision and values of the offender (García et al., Strategic communications as a key factor in countering hybrid threats. European Parliamentary Research Service, Brussels, 2021). In this vein, this paper consists of an interdisciplinary approach to the communication management of hybrid threats and crises, and through the interdisciplinary study of the disciplines of International Relations and Communication, aims to analyze the concept of hybrid threats, and to present the role that strategic communication plays as a means to counter them. According to the authors’ perspective, strategic communication is defined as a systematic series of sustained and coherent activities, conducted across strategic, operational and tactical levels, that enables understanding of target audiences, identifies effective conduits, and develops and promotes ideas and opinions through those conduits to promote and sustain particular types of behavior (Tatham, ARAG Special Ser. Defence Acad. U. K., 18:3, 2008). Its main goal is to provide narratives to the targeted audiences through appropriate channels in a timely way in order to prevent, detect, and reduce or eliminate the consequences of hybrid threats (García et al., Strategic communications as a key factor in countering hybrid threats. European Parliamentary Research Service, Brussels, 2021). Within this context, this paper will present how the strategic communications, as a component of national strategy can help the crisis managers or the decision makers of a government to counter hybrid threats and respond to current and future national security challenges.
Article
Proxy warfare, in which one party uses a third party to achieve its own goals, are known for centuries, however, the conceptualization studies of proxy warfare are relatively new. Thereby, in this paper, we assess proxy warfare in terms of agency theory. According to agency theory, the owner of the company delegates their authority to another person (agent) to make decisions on their behalf. If there is information asymmetry between the parties or differentiation in the goals of the principal and the agent or they have different risk-sharing perceptions, agency problem exists. This study discloses that identical problems are common in proxy warfare. That is, if the principal and proxy have unmatching goals or desires accompanying information asymmetry and different risk perceptions, the principal may lose control of the proxy or the principal may exploit the proxy, likewise, the proxy may prefer a different way of action which is not compatible with the goals of the principal. However, this study shows that the remedies for agency theory’s “moral hazard” and “adverse selection” problems might be used in proxy warfare problems by establishing outcome-based contracts and a strong knowledge structure between the parties of proxy warfare.
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Uluslararası İlişkilerde ve teknolojide meydana gelen değişim, savaş kavramının niteliğinde kapsamlı değişiklikler meydana getirmiştir. Bunda tarihteki önemli kırılma noktaları, bilimsel gelişmelere bağlı olarak yeni tekniklerin keşfi ve sistemik düzeydeki dönüşümler etkili olmuş, böylelikle savaşın biçimi, stratejisi ve araçları dönüşüme uğramıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 19.yy’ın ikinci yarısında Avrupa’da yükselişe geçen Prusya’nın, Alman Birliği’ni kurma yolunda yaptığı savaşlar ve 20.yy’ın başında tüm dünyayı etkileyen I. Dünya Savaşı’nı, Sanayi Devrimi’nin yarattığı teknolojik dönüşüm çerçevesinde inceleyerek, bu dönüşümün harbin tabiatı üzerinde nasıl bir değişim meydana getirdiğini analiz etmektir. Bu maksatla çalışmada Prusya’nın, Danimarka, Avusturya ve Fransa ile 1861-1870 yılları arasında Alman Birliği’nin kurulması adına yaptığı savaşlar ile I. Dünya Savaşı’nın, savaşların doğasının değişimine olan etkileri incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada Prusya’nın Alman Birliği’ne giden yolda yaptığı savaşlar ve müteakip süreçte I. Dünya Savaşı’nın Sanayi Devrimi’nin bir çıktısı olduğu, bu bağlamda da endüstriyel harbin örneklerini yansıttığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Bununla birlikte çalışmada, Alman Birliği Savaşları’nın, taktik ve stratejik açıdan I. Dünya Savaşı’nı etkilediği; I. Dünya Savaşı’nda edinilen tecrübelerin ve çıkarılan derslerin ise II. Dünya Savaşı’nın karakteristiğini belirlediği değerlendirilmesinde bulunulmuştur.
Article
Bu çalışmada Rusya’nın 2022 yılında ikinci safhasına başladığı Ukrayna müdahalesi hibrit savaş perspektifinden incelenmiştir. Savaşın politika, askeri kuvvetler ve toplum çerçevesinde şekillenen, sabit ilkelerden müteşekkil doğasının diğer tarafında toplumsal gelişmelere bağlı olarak sürekli değişim halinde olan karakteri bulunur. Savaşın rahminde gelişen askeri stratejide olgunun bu iki boyutundan etkilenmektedir. Bir diğer ifade ile askeri stratejinin doğası geçmiş tecrübeler ışığında şekillenen değişmez ilke ve prensipleri, karakteri ise cari stratejik çevreyi tanımlar. Bu kapsamda Hibrit Savaş, Soğuk Savaş sonrası değişen stratejik çevreyi vurgulamak üzere literatürde yer bulan kavramlardan birisidir. Literatürde hibrit savaş kavramı öncelikle devlet dışı aktörlerin stratejik yaklaşımları üzerinden kullanılmaya başlanmıştır. Rusya’nın 2014 yılında Ukrayna gerçekleştirdiği müdahalenin ardından devletlerin stratejik yaklaşımlarını kapsayacak biçimde genişlemiştir. Rus perspektifine göre ise hibrit savaş batının kendisini çevreleme ve etki alanını kısıtlamak üzere uyguladığı temel stratejidir. Nitekim bu çabaya karşı koymak ve değişen stratejik çevreye uyum sağlamak üzere, Gerasimov Doktrini çerçevesinde yeni bir stratejik yaklaşım ortaya konmuştur. Hibrit savaş kavramının ortaya koyduğu analitik çerçevenin geçerliliği Ukrayna müdahalesinin 2022 yılındaki safhasının ardından tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. Bu aşamada Rus ordusunun icra ettiği operasyonlarda konvansiyonel karakter ön plana çıkmıştır. Diğer taraftan Rusya’nın sahada kullandığı yöntemler ve araçlar incelendiğinde çatışmaların hızlandığı süreç öncesinden başlayarak konvansiyonel asimetrik unsurlar ve bilgi boyutundaki hibridizasyonunun stratejik ortamı şekillendirdiği görülmektedir. Özcesi, hibrit savaşın analitik çerçevesinin değişen stratejik çevreyi anlamlandırmak üzere halen geçerliliğini koruduğu değerlendirilmektedir.
Chapter
This book seeks to critically review and evaluate the changes and consistencies in how warfare is interpreted and represented by academics, mass media outlets and political actors in the 21st century. The authors suggest that it is essential to understand the evolution and transformation of contemporary warfare's conceptualisation and practice in order to make sense of the current global geopolitical transformations that are in process, from a unipolar to multipolar global order. They therefore examine the various key actors in international relations from conceptual, theoretical and empirical perspectives through thematic chapters that demonstrate the increasingly central role played by intangible factors in the representation and management of contemporary armed conflict. The book stresses the need to reflect and rethink the potentially highly problematic trajectory of the global community within the framework of 21st century warfare's political and informational influence and effects.
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Sosyal bilimlerin farklı disiplinleri uluslararası ilişkilerin doğasındaki köklü değişimleri güçlü bir şekilde savunurken, güç mücadelesinin geleneksel olmayan aktörleri de bu çağdaş dönüşümü değerlendirmeye odaklı çalışmalarda yerlerini almaktadırlar. Buna paralel olarak, İran'ın uluslararası ortamın dönüşümüne uyum sağlamak, etki alanını genişletmek ve bölgesel stratejik hedeflerine ulaşmak için istihbarat toplulukları aracılığıyla geleneksel olmayan/vekil aktör ağları oluşturmaya yönelik eylemleri bu çalışmanın temel argümanını oluşturmaktadır. Çalışma, İran Devrim Muhafızları'nın bir kolu olan Kudüs Gücü'nün İran'ın vekil ağının inşası ve sürdürülmesindeki rolünü incelemektedir. Bu bağlamda, Kudüs Gücü'nün istihbarat toplama, gerilla savaşı ve örtülü operasyonlardaki kabiliyetlerini vekil aktörlere finansal kaynak, askeri eğitim ve rehberlik sağlamak için işlevselleştirdiği sonucuna varılmaktadır.
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Traditional explanations for why states ask others to fight on their behalf tend to focus on why the state does not wish to fight. States employ proxies, under these explanations, when they feel constrained from acting more directly, for example fearing escalation of the conflict, or possible domestic backlash. In the immediate post-9/11 era, the US seemed to have very few constraints in attacking Al Qaeda directly: they were responding to a terrorist attack, there was no risk of escalation, and international and domestic support for action was high. Yet in December 2001, possessing convincing intelligence that Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leadership had fled to their stronghold at Tora Bora, the US entrusted key aspects of their attack to a loose coalition of Afghan militias hurriedly assembled in the previous weeks. While many Al Qaeda fighters died in the fight, bin Laden escaped, in large part due to incompetence or collusion by the proxies the US had employed. This dissertation considers why the US chose this course of action, when the usual drivers of proxy warfare suggested by theory were not obviously applicable. By reconstructing the events of the battle and its planning and considering the strategic context of the battle within the wider war in Afghanistan, constraints are identified and their relative impacts considered. The evidence suggests that time was the key constraint perceived by US planners. The twin pressures of the urgency of the mission and the time it would take to put American boots on the ground drove them to use proxies in Tora Bora. This finding offers support for models of proxy war that consider it to be a component of modern hybrid warfare. It is also an important result for policymakers and military commanders making war planning decisions under time pressure.
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This chapter addresses the causes and reasons for continuation of Yemeni civil war. In 2011, Yemenis mobilized to demand the departure of President Abdullah Saleh and the establishment of a better society. After thirty years in power, Saleh signed his resignation and began a political transition that was initially promising. This chapter argues that the absence of real change and the complexity of Yemeni society undermined the process, leading to civil conflict. In addition, the turbulent Yemeni reality was intertwined with dark regional geopolitics, marked by sectarianism and competition between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and United Arab Emirates. This chapter suggests that the war eventually turned into a brutal fight, which has been qualified as The century’s worst humanitarian crisis.
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This chapter provides a critical overview on the patterns of health and socioeconomic policy responses in the Arab Mashreq and the GCC countries, from a social justice perspective. The social stratification and inheriting inequality in the Arab Mashreq affected the policy response, by favoring the economic support to big businesses, and depriving the poor from accessing quality health care, which shaped a class-based recovery. However, this disparity in the GCC policy responses in the health sector did not exist, since high-quality health care was provided to all. Moreover, the economic support was comprehensive and did not exclude small and medium-sized enterprises. However, the labor policy response undermined the social justice in the GCC pandemic response. Austerity measures were significantly directed toward the expatriate workers by reducing their numbers or cutting salaries and benefits. The chapter provides contextual analysis to draw a full picture of the structural factors that represent pressing determinants shaping different typologies of policy response in both regions.
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This chapter investigates the economic changes of the GCC countries within the framework of the nature of economic diversification by analyzing innova- tion performance indices, economic freedom indices, and doing business indicators. This paper shows that the GCC states’ economic strategies are still limited in their ability to affect economic performance so that their economies are still heavily depen- dent on natural resources. Thus, this study stresses the need for GCC countries to develop technology- and innovation-based private sectors aside from hydrocarbons in accordance with the endogenous growth theory. This research recommends that each GCC state should support investments in the private sector, which can contribute to the development of innovation and technology.
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Since 1979, few rivalries have affected Middle Eastern politics as much as the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, too often the rivalry has been framed purely in terms of 'proxy wars', sectarian difference or the associated conflicts that have broken out in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen. In this book, Simon Mabon presents a more nuanced assessment of the rivalry, outlining its history and demonstrating its impact across the Middle East. Highlighting the significance of local groups, Mabon shows how regional politics have shaped and been shaped by the rivalry. The book draws from social theory and the work of Pierre Bourdieu to challenge problematic assumptions about 'proxy wars', the role of religion, and sectarianism. Exploring the changing political landscape of the Middle East as a whole and the implications for regional and international security, Mabon paints a complex picture of this frequently discussed but oft-misunderstood rivalry.
Article
During the Syrian War, the US and other Western countries trained, equipped and paid Syrian rebels to fight the government and, later, root out the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). When states use armed groups to attain foreign policy objectives, control is a key concern. The US sought to enforce such control over providers and recipients of lethal military assistance in the period from 2013–18. We investigate the parallel CIA and Department of Defence assistance programmes . We challenge theoretical assumptions related to the application of the principal-agent model to explain the dynamics of foreign assistance to rebels. We argue that, in the US strategy to control rebels, co-ordinating the providers and dividing the recipients of security assistance were essential conditions. Meanwhile, the delays in recruitment, the limitations on the number of soldiers trained, the short supply of weapons and the strict regulation of the actions carried out by the rebels all reduced the efficacy of the assistance. This way of instrumentalising security assistance helped the US and its Western allies to crush ISIL while avoiding a collapse in Damascus. However, this happened at the expense of rebel cohesion, autonomy, and legitimacy.
Thesis
En présence d'un intérêt conflictuel relatif à l'appropriation d'une ressource (territoire, pétrole, etc.) ou de luttes hégémoniques, la résolution des différends interétatiques peut passer par la médiation des organisations internationales qui peuvent jouer le rôle d'arbitre et de plateforme de négociation.En cas d'inefficacité ou d'échec de ces modes pacifiques de règlement des différends, et plutôt que d'engager une confrontation armée directe particulièrement coûteuse et contraignante juridiquement, les pays en conflit peuvent chercher à user de stratégies alternatives telles que les financements des insurrections pour déstabiliser leurs rivaux.Ainsi, les conflits armés se caractérisent par une certaine dynamique dans la mesure où ils prennent des formes variées et incluent une multitude d'acteurs étatiques et non-étatiques au niveau interne, régional et international.Les zones de conflits sont dans ce cas étendues et les possibilités de ciblage des civils plus élevées.L'intérêt de ce travail doctoral qui réunit – dans une perspective théorique et appliquée – l’économie des conflits et le droit international, est d'offrir une analyse variée de l'étude des conflits armés à partir de 4 essais.Le premier chapitre de notre thèse a pour objectif de poser les fondements d'une approche interdisciplinaire dans l'étude des conflits armés.Sur cette base, nous apportons un éclairage quant au rôle des différents instruments juridiques nationaux et internationaux dans l'apparition ou la résolution des conflits armés.Le second chapitre, en s'appuyant sur le cas des « Guerres de la morue », vise à analyser les relations d'influences réciproques existantes entre le droit et le conflit observé sous le prisme de l'économie.Dans un troisième chapitre, nous nous intéressons au phénomène de rivalités interétatiques en tenant compte des réseaux de rivalités indirects.Enfin, dans un dernier chapitre nous cherchons à évaluer l'effet des cadres idéologiques des groupes armés sur la probabilité de ciblage des civils.
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Έχω πολλούς άλλους λόγους να ελπίζω ότι θα νικήσομε, υπό τον όρο όμως να μην επιδιώξομε, ταυτόχρονα με την διεξαγωγή του πολέμου, να επεκτείνομε την κυριαρχία μας και να μην εκτεθούμε σε κινδύνους περιττούς. Περισσότερο φοβούμαι τα δικά μας σφάλματα παρά τα σχέδια του εχθρού. Π Ε Ρ Ι Κ Λ Ή Σ Ή διδασκαλία της πολεμικής τέχνης στοχεύει στο να αποκτήσουν οι σπουδαστές της, ή γενικότερα ο κάθε ενδιαφερόμενος, μόρφωση πολεμικής τέχνης. Με άλλα λόγια, διανόηση, δημιουργική κριτική και καινοτόμο νόηση, η οποία θα επιτρέψει στη φαντασία τους να επινοήσει τους χιλιάδες συνδυασμούς του άμεσου και του έμμεσου ελιγμού, που κερδίζουν τους πολέμους. Ο ελιγμός είναι, γενικά, η εμφάνιση μίας δύναμης σε τόπο και χρόνο για τη δημιουργία ενός σοβαρού και ωφέλιμου γεγονότος. Σε όλα τα επίπεδα-το στρατηγικό, το επιχειρησιακό, και το τακτικό-ο πόλεμος διεξάγεται με άμεσο και έμμεσο ελιγμό των παραγόντων ισχύος του κράτους, της διπλωματίας, των πληροφοριών, των ενόπλων δυνάμεων και της οικονομίας του. Στον πόλεμο, ο άμεσος ελιγμός χρησιμοποιείται για να εμπλακεί ο εχθρός στη μάχη και ο έμμεσος για να δώσει τη νίκη. Οι άμεσοι και οι έμμεσοι ελιγμοί εναλλάσσονται και αλληλοτροφοδοτούνται σε έναν συνεχή και ατελείωτο κύκλο. Στο ανωτέρω πλαίσιο, το βιβλίο αυτό θα παρουσιάσει την πολεμική τέχνη, όπως εξελίχθηκε από τα αρχαία χρόνια μέχρι σήμερα, με στόχο να δώσει στους αναγνώστες του τη δυνατότητα να εξαγάγουν νόημα από το χάος του παρόντος με τη γνώση και τη σοφία του παρελθόντος. Να συνεγείρει τη φαντασία τους και να τους δώσει τη βάση για τη μελλοντική εξέλιξή της πολεμικής τέχνης από τους ίδιους. Η παρουσίαση θα ξεκινήσει από την αρχαία Ελλάδα, καθόσον οι μάχες του Μαραθώνα και των Λεύκτρων αποτέλεσαν τις βάσεις πάνω στις οποίες στυλώθηκε η μετέπειτα ανάπτυξη της πολεμικής τέχνης. Κατόπιν, θα παρουσιαστούν σημαντικές μάχες και επιχειρήσεις, τις οποίες διεξήγαγαν μεγάλοι στρατηλάτες από την αρχαιότητα έως και σήμερα. Στο τέλος, θα αναφερθούν σπερματικά οι τάσεις για τον μελλοντικό πόλεμο με βάση τους πολέμους που έχουν διεξαχθεί τον 21ο αιώνα, με τελευταίο τον 2o Πόλεμο του Ναγκόρνο-Καραμπάχ (27 Σεπτεμβρίου-9 Νοεμβρίου 2020).
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Continuing from Chap. 4 with the theme of death, Chap. 5 asks about the circumstances in which tens of thousands of migrants crossing the Mediterranean have been left by EU states to drown, being rescued at sea by civilians, and then are returned to Libya or Turkey. Especially since 2015, a plethora of studies has emerged on this question of ‘push-back’ by the EU. This chapter shows how selective visa regimes punish those most in need of protection, as EU member states decide who will survive and who must risk death by drowning. EU member states do not even bother to identify the border-dead; that too is done by NGOs instead of governments. Why do EU member states go to such lengths (and spend so much money) in order to avoid moral, legal and historical, post-colonial responsibilities for those fleeing danger and disaster to the islands and shores of Europe? This chapter includes testimonies of the life and near-death experiences of refugees and migrants crossing the Mediterranean.
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Analyses of the Libyan conflict from the 2011 revolt onward have tended to define it as a ‘proxy war’, especially because of the relevant role played by foreign actors and their intermingling with various local factions. However, this definition does not stand up to closer examination and definitely does not fit with the specifics of the Libyan case. Through a combined analysis of the three theoretical concepts of ‘areas of limited statehood’ (ALS), ‘rentier state’ and ‘proxy war’, after an examination of the role played by militias, economic institutions and external actors in the conflict, it is argued that the classic concept of proxy war does not fully apply to the war in Libya.
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In this paper, we develop a new dataset on indirect state rivalry relations based on different matrix calculations for 154 countries, over the period 1970-2015, and demonstrate their importance in explaining civil wars. After controlling for spatial distances between rival countries, we demonstrate that 1) the presence of direct and indirect rivals exerts a positive and significant effect on the risk of civil war; 2) decreasing levels of military capacity of one state relative to its rivals (direct and indirect) also influence the probability of internal conflict. Finally, we confirm the significance of our indicators by using on the one hand the random forest algorithm, a machine learning method using decision trees and on the other hand, the Kaplan-Meier estimate for the duration of the civil wars.
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The methods and tools used by the European Union to counter hybrid threats are identified: from the fight against terrorism to measures aimed at combating economic competitors and political opponents (mainly, to squeeze Russia and China out of European markets). It is concluded that it is not by chance that neither EU institutions nor the research community have worked out a comprehensive definition of operations to combat hybrid threats. A broad understanding of hybrid threats as practically any (depending on the political situation) actions of the opponent serves to justify the application of any counteraction tool. In the fight against global threats such as terrorism, cybercrime, and the spread of false medical data, the EU takes a systemic approach, which makes it possible to assess the level and degree of the convergence of threats to critical infrastructure and the infosphere, as well as the possibilities of counteraction. At the same time, attempts to use economic, legislative, political, and informational tools to achieve one-sided economic, political, and military advantages do not reduce the degree of tension in the EU’s relations with Russia, China, and some other countries, only increasing the number and strength of hybrid threats. This reduces the EU’s ability to achieve strategic autonomy.
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Penelitian dengan judul “Perubahan Sosial Budaya Kerajaan Arab Saudi Sebagai Pengaruh Proxy War Dalam Konflik Suriah Tahun 2011-2018” merupakan penelitian yang menganalisis pergeseran kehidupan sosial dan budaya Masyarakat Arab Saudi yang terlibat sebagai aktor Negara dalam Proxy War yang diakibatkan oleh konflik Suriah. Tahun 2011, terjadi revolusi demokrasi di kawasan Timur Tengah yang dikenal sebagai Arab Spring. Hal tersebut menginisiasi Bashar al-Assad sebagai pemimpin di Suriah pada tahun tersebut untuk melakukan revolusi yang berujung konflik internal akibat sikap otoriternya. Dalam penelitian ini, penulis menggunakan metode deskriptif-analisis data kualitatif. Dengan data yang didapatkan melalui studi pustaka terhadap buku, laporan, jurnal, skripsi, serta literatur lainnya melalui media elektronik. Dalam proses interpretasi sebagai pengolahan data, penulis menggunakan teori perubahan sosial dan budaya yang dikemukakan oleh Auguste Comte (1798-1857). Adapun hasil yang didapatkan oleh penulis yaitu: 1) Proxy War dalam konflik Suriah terjadi akibat konflik Arab Saudi dan Iran. 2) Konflik yang dialami Arab Saudi membuat pergeseran budaya dengan munculnya kelompok okuvasional yang menghilangkan nilai kekerabatan sebagai budaya Arab Saudi. 3) Arab Saudi menjadi kawasan yang stabil dikarenakan memilki hubungan bilateral yang baik dalam Dunia Internasional.Kata Kunci: Kerajaan Arab Saudi, Perubahan Sosial Budaya, Proxy War, Konflik.
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It was Robert Nozick who, distinguishing the classical liberal ‘night-watchman State’ which protected citizens against violence and enforced contracts on their behalf, conjured instead the ‘ultra-minimal State’ 1 in which the task of the State is confined to the monopolization of violence rather than the actual provision of security (unless paid for by citizens by choice). On the face of it, it seems that Western governments are increasingly keen to move towards this model of the ultra-minimal State and to allow even the provision of force to be assumed by private enterprise on a contractual model in which the rich or the desperate may choose to avail themselves of fortifications at the going rate while the rest take their chances in life. The ultra-minimal State is left with a residual steering 2 policy role in which the parameters of contractual engagement for protection can be set. In short, it appears that nothing is sacrosanct in the onward march of the principles of neo-liberalism. Even the ultimate bastions of establishment—Her Majesty's armed forces—are not immune from processes of commodification and marketization that have previously been applied to core functions such as policing 3 and imprisonment. 4
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International Security 26.3 (2002) 186-220 A failing government trying to prevent the imminent capture of its capital, a regional power planning for war, a ragtag militia looking to reverse its battlefield losses, a peacekeeping force seeking deployment support, a weak ally attempting to escape its patron's dictates, a multinational corporation hoping to end constant rebel attacks against its facilities, a drug cartel pursuing high-technology military capabilities, a humanitarian aid group requiring protection within conflict zones, and the world's sole remaining superpower searching for ways to limit its military costs and risks. When thinking in conventional terms, security studies experts would be hard-pressed to find anything that these actors may have in common. They differ in size, relative power, location in the international system, level of wealth, number and type of adversaries, organizational makeup, ideology, legitimacy, objectives, and so on. There is, however, one unifying link: When faced with such diverse security needs, these actors all sought external military support. Most important is where that support came from: not from a state or even an international organization but rather the global marketplace. It is here that a unique business form has arisen that I term the "privatized military firm" (PMF). PMFs are profit-driven organizations that trade in professional services intricately linked to warfare. They are corporate bodies that specialize in the provision of military skills -- including tactical combat operations, strategic planning, intelligence gathering and analysis, operational support, troop training, and military technical assistance. With the rise of the privatized military industry, actors in the global system can access capabilities that extend across the entire military spectrum -- from a team of commandos to a wing of fighter jets -- simply by becoming a business client. PMFs represent the newest addition to the modern battlefield, and their role in contemporary warfare is becoming increasingly significant. Not since the eighteenth century has there been such reliance on private soldiers to accomplish tasks directly affecting the tactical and strategic success of military engagement. With the continued growth and increasing activity of the privatized military industry, the start of the twenty-first century is witnessing the gradual breakdown of the Weberian monopoly over the forms of violence. PMFs may well portend the new business face of war. This is not to say, however, that the state itself is disappearing. The story is far more complex than that. The power of PMFs has been utilized as much in support of state interests as against them. As Kevin O'Brien writes, "By privatizing security and the use of violence, removing it from the domain of the state and giving it to private interest, the state in these instances is both being strengthened and disassembled." With the growth of the privatized military industry, the state's role in the security sphere has become deprivileged, just as it has in other international arenas such as trade and finance. The aim of this article is to introduce the privatized military industry. It seeks to establish a theoretical structure in which to study the industry and explore its impact on the overall risks and dynamics of warfare. The first section discusses the emergence and global spread of PMFs, their distinguishing features, and the reasons behind the industry's rise. The second section examines the organization and operation of this new player at the industry level of analysis (as opposed to the more common focus in the literature on individual firms). This allows the classification of the industry's key characteristics and variation. The third section offers a series of propositions that suggest potential consequences of PMF activity for international security. It also demonstrates how critical issue areas, such as alliance patterns and civil-military relations, must be reexamined in light of the possibilities and complications that this nascent industry presents. The activity and significance of the privatized military industry have grown tremendously in recent years, yet its full scope and long-term impact remain underrealized. This section explains the emergence of this phenomenon. It begins by exploring how widespread and important the PMF business has become. It then briefly examines the history of past profit-motivated actors...
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The Working Group on Mercenaries, one of the special procedures of the UN Human Rights Council, has been entrusted to monitor the impact of the activities of private military and security companies (PMSCs) on the enjoyment of human rights and to prepare draft international basic principles that encourage respect for human rights on the part of those companies. The number of private security and military companies which operate domestically and internationally is increasing due largely to the outsourcing of governmental functions. They have been operating without proper supervision and accountability in countries with ongoing conflicts, such as Afghanistan, Colombia and Iraq. They recruit former policemen and soldiers from developing countries as ‘security guards’, but in fact they are ‘militarily armed private soldiers’, or mercenaries. Employees of PMSCs have committed serious human rights violations, but have also been subject to abuse by their employers. Member states of the United Nations should identify those military and security functions that cannot be privatised, contracted out or ‘outsourced’ and should remain a prerogative of the state. New international regulations, most likely in the form of a new UN Convention with an accompanying Model Law, are needed in order to bring PMSCs fully out of the legal ‘grey zone’ in which they have been operating.