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# Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach

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... Most decisions are made in the face of uncertainty. Probability enters into the process by playing the role of a substitute for certainty-a substitute for complete knowledge [4]. ...
... In probabilistic modeling, risk means uncertainty for which the probability distribution is known. Therefore risk assessment means a study to determine the outcomes of decisions along with their probabilities [4]. ...
... However, in many decision problems, the decision maker might wish to consider a combination of some actions. For example, in the investment problem, the investor might wish to distribute the assets among a mixture of the choices in such a way to optimize the portfolio's return [2][3][4]. ...
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make brief excerpts for a published review. Permission is also granted to make limited numbers of copies of items in this monograph for personal, internal, classroom or other instructional use, on condition that the foregoing copyright notice is used so as to give reasonable notice of the Society's copyright. This consent for free limited copying without prior consent of the Society does not extend to making copies for general distribution, for advertising or promotional purposes, for inclusion in new collective works or for resale. Abstract Decision making is certainly the most important task of a manager and it is often a very difficult one. The domain of decision analysis models falls between two extreme cases. This depends upon the degree of knowledge we have about the outcome of our actions. One "pole" on this scale is deterministic. The opposite "pole" is pure uncertainty. Between these two extremes are problems under risk. The main idea here is that for any given problem, the degree of certainty varies among managers depending upon how much knowledge each one has about the same problem. This reflects the recommendation of a different solution by each person. Probability is an instrument used to measure the likelihood of occurrence for an event. When probability is used to express uncertainty, the deterministic side has a probability of one (or zero), while the other end has a flat (all equally probable) probability. This paper offers a decision making procedure for solving complex problems step by step. It presents the decision analysis process for both public and private decision making, using different decision criteria, different types of information and information of varying quality. It describes the elements in the analysis of decision alternatives and choices, as well as the goals and objectives that guide decision making. The key issues related to a decision-maker's preferences regarding alternatives, criteria for choice and choice modes, together with the risk assessment tools, are also presented.
... In this paper, a novel method to determine an optimal video adaptation scheme, given the properties of an end terminal on which the video to be displayed, is proposed. Utility Theory [6] is utilized to construct models, which are fitted to results of subjective evaluation tests, formulating the "satisfaction" a user gets from watching a certain video clip. The optimal video adaptation is achieved by maximizing a 'utility function' to determine the representation of the video that results in the highest user satisfaction. ...
... 3. UTILITY THEORY The fundamental motive of utility theory is, to represent the satisfaction or expected utility of a resource, as a function of the amount of that resource [6]. There are two methods to obtain the utility function of a resource in utility theory. ...
... Both of these methods rely on subjective utilities provided by individual(s) representing the community for which the utilities need to be determined. While one of the approaches requires eliciting the utility values directly from the individual, by presenting the best and worst possible results and asking the individual to determine the relative satisfaction of all the remaining points of the utility function, the other approach assigns a specific shape (usually an exponential) to the utility function, such as [6] ...
Article
This thesis proposes a novel system to determine the best representation of a video in the sense that, a user watching the video reaches the highest level of satisfaction possible, given the resource capabilities of the viewing device. Utility theory is used to obtain a utility function representing the user satisfaction as a function of video coding parameters, and the viewing device capabilities. The utility function is formulated as the weighted sum of three individual components. These components are chosen such that, the satisfaction on any one of the components is independent of the satisfaction on every other component. The advantage of such decomposition is the ability to express individual components as simple mathematical relations, modeling user satisfaction. Afterwards, the unknown parameters of these models are determined by results of subjective tests, performed by a multitude of users. Finally, simulated annealing is utilized to find the global optimum of this utility function representing the user satisfaction. Simulation results based on subjective viewing tests on a resource limited mobile device indicate a consistent user satisfaction by the determined optimal encoding parameters of the video.
... One of the main issues regards how to relate institutional data with those produced by open-source's users. This stage is critical for the decision-making process since far more information can be made explicit and available to public debate, increasing, as well, the evaluation transparency (Golub 1997; van der Sluijs 2002). Always more frequently, traditional and new dataset are being used in the SDSS, trying to overcome the lack of geographic data. ...
... In this context, many authors report the lack of coordination and adoption of advanced technologies to share information (Li et al. 2013). On the other hand, the landscape knowledge in a decisional context lacking in geographical data is a critical phase of the spatial decision-making processes since it is necessary to guarantee openness and sharing also in the evaluation processes (Golub 1997; van der Sluijs 2002). It is possible to consider the geographical dataset as a segment of a knowledge-based system that aids the DM for sharing strategies of development and transformation/conservation of the landscape characters. ...
Conference Paper
The paper recommends a methodology for data gathering and processing through the spatial analysis techniques and the combinatorial multi-criteria procedure of Weighted Linear Combination (WLC). The purpose concerns the spatial problem structuring in a complex decisional context lacking in the geographical dataset. The processing of data and information provided by VGIs and Open Systems is crucial for the enrichment of spatial datasets in these circumstances, but it is advisable to make attention about the data reliability and the known problems of the geographic dataset, i.e. Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). The method was tested with the case study of 27 Municipalities around the Partenio Regional Park, in the South of Italy. Within the SDSS, the multidimensional landscape’s indicators were combined with data gathering on the field, in order to build an evolving informative system. A multidimensional approach, focused on the recognition of environmental, social, economic and cultural resources, was chosen providing some strategies of enhancement for the overviewed landscape of the Park. The evaluation of the policy and actions for the examined regions generated scenario-maps through multi-criteria procedures and GIS tools.
... The complexity of such decision-making calls for the use of models. Models are abstractions of the problem and its interaction under consideration [9, 15]. Models can also be actual model instances of the abstraction schema [18]. ...
... A modelling process occurs when the decision maker defines and develops an abstraction of the real world problem in the form of a model so that s/he can decide and solve a problem under consideration [3]. Not only does the model act as a model schema [9, 15], but it is also a mathematical model [9, 20] that acts as an executable computer program module [18]. Often this modelling process is iterative and cyclical, and requires continuous adjustment and refinement. ...
Conference Paper
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Decision making processes and systems to support the same have focused for the most part on narrow disciplines, paradigms, perspectives, and pre-determined processes. Apart from these most decision processes and systems are designed to solve simple problems and are therefore unable to support complex problems that consist of interrelated decisions that span multiple domains, paradigms, and/or perspectives. To address these problems we propose conceptual decision-making and modelling processes. A flexible object-oriented decision system framework and architecture was developed and implemented to support the proposed processes. Some of the key concepts that we have been able to explore and implement are generic modelling ideas, such as data-model, model-solver, model-model, solver-visualisation, and data-visualisation independences. Specifically we have been able to explore the integration of models of different types, levels of complexity, depths of integration (aggregation, pipelining, and splicing) and orientations (satisficing as well as optimising).
... In other words, video frames with very low distortion might be displayed in a non-smooth manner in time or a motion smooth video can independently have a very low spatial resolution. When the above decomposition is performed, the sub-objectives can be easily modeled as simpler functions of the video coding parameters by using the parametric approach of the Utility Theory [5]. In [10], a novel method to determine an optimal video adaptation scheme, given the properties of an end-terminal, on which the video is to be displayed, is proposed. ...
... In [10], a novel method to determine an optimal video adaptation scheme, given the properties of an end-terminal, on which the video is to be displayed, is proposed. Utility Theory [5] is utilized to model a strictly subjective quantity, satisfaction, a user will get from watching a certain video clip. The satisfaction is formulated as comprising 3 independent utilities, each depending on certain video coding parameters. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The satisfaction a user gets from watching a video in a resource limited device, can be formulated by utility theory. The resulting video adaptation is optimal in the sense that the adapted video maximizes the user satisfaction, which is modeled through subjective tests comprising of 3 independent utility components : crispness, motion smoothness and content visibility. These components are maximized in terms of coding parameters by obtaining a Pareto optimal set. In this manuscript, inclusion of transmission channel capacity into the subjective utility model of user satisfaction is addressed. It is proposed that using the maximum channel capacity as a restriction metric, certain members of the Pareto optimal solution set can be eliminated such that the remaining members are suitable for transmission through the given channel. Once the reduced solution set is obtained, an additional figure of merit can be used to pick a single solution from this set, depending on the application scenario
... Een extra complicatie in het kader van economische processen is dat kansen vaak endogeen en niet exogeen bepaald zijn. Met een exogeen kansproces bedoel ik hier een kansproces dat zich niet laat sturen door menselijk handelen (zie ook Golub 1997 ). Wanneer we afzien van de mogelijke menselijke invloed via het El Niñoeffect , zou een voorbeeld kunnen zijn het optreden van orkaanschade in Miami Beach, Florida. ...
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... Examples of risk taking are willingness to try new or unproven tutoring methods such as on-line assessment, video conferencing, and peer tutoring. Modelling a person's preference by assessing their utility function is a subjective procedure much like assessing subjective probabilities [16]. A utility function can be specified in terms of a graph or in a mathematical expression. ...
Article
This paper examines the nature of decision-theory approach and its application to education. In particular, a case study on selection of tutoring policy for maximising students' learning at Singapore Polytechnic is discussed. On the one hand, students' ability, availability of resources, and lecturers' preparation time are uncertainties. On the other hand, decision is influenced by individual preference for tutorial formats such as student-centred, chalk-and-talk, or computer-based tutoring. Moreover, the course of action is dependent on trade-off in values. Using decision analysis, uncertainties, preferences, alternatives and values are modelled and a defensible claim on maximising student learning can be made.
... The methodological process elaborated allows to highlight how the evaluation, conceived in integrated terms, can be a support to the construction of the choices, enhancing the vocations of each area and, above all, locating actions where previously it minimizes the territorial and environmental impacts and reduce conflicts. Recognize the operational validity and improve the transparency of the evaluation process allow to explain the potential of the interaction between planning, design and evaluation, and to explore the field of integrated assessments tools [46] [47] [48] [49]. Through evaluative paths structured according to integrated approaches it is possible to build a pro-active dialogue between decision-makers, planners and evaluators, helping to outline participated and shared solutions. ...
Conference Paper
The objective of this study is to present the methodological process for the elaboration of a Spatial Multicriteria Assessment Decision Support System (SMCA-DSS) oriented to the definition of a Water Opportunity Map for a Naples Eastern Area, in Italy. The proposed approach extends the formalization of multicriteria methods and social network analysis in Geographical Information Systems (GIS), including spatial structure and temporal dynamics. The combined application can be useful in spatial decision making process for urban planning, supporting and modelling operations for urban land-use change. Analysing the opportunities for the storm-water management, the paper explores possible shared scenarios of transformations identifying the main effects on the local context. Sharable link: https://rdcu.be/c7Vqh. Cite as: Cerreta, M., De Rosa, F., Di Palma, M., Inglese, P., Poli, G. (2013). A Spatial Multicriteria Assessment Decision Support System (SMCA-DSS) for East Naples: Towards a Water Opportunity Map. In: , et al. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2013. ICCSA 2013. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 7974. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39649-6_41
... The sustainability footprint approach suggests a way in which a range of indicators can be presented for a particular project or operation. Other tools, such as multiattribute decision analysis (Golub, 1997; Hertwich and Hammitt, 2001), are helpful in providing a structured approach to the choices to be made, and in exposing the trade-offs between different desirable and undesirable outcomes. Thus it cannot be assumed that a straight switch from fossil fuel to renewable energy will automatically improve sustainability. ...
Article
World energy demand is expected to increase to several times its current level over the next 50 years. Much of this energy will come from fossil fuel, a finite resource, which moreover generates carbon dioxide, a cause of global warming. The incentive to develop other, renewable forms of energy is therefore strong, but how can we be sure that our expectations for the future form a rational basis for determining energy policy? The scenario planning technique does not attempt to predict the future, but offers a variety of visions against which current actions and policies can be tested. To guide the move towards a more sustainable future it is also important to be able to monitor our progress. The use of sustainability metrics, tailored to a particular purpose, and relating to resource efficiency, environmental protection, economic benefits and social development, is a way of quantifying this progress. The set of indicators illustrates the ‘sustainability footprint’ of an enterprise.
... That is, it provides a systematic quantitative approach to making better decisions, rather than a description of how unaided decisions are made. Recent decision analysis textbooks include Bell and Schleifer (1995), Clemen (1996), Golub (1997), Marshall and Oliver (1995), McNamee and Celona (1990), and Skinner (1999). Kirkwood (1992Kirkwood ( , 1999 provides a brief introduction to decision analysis methods, while Hammond et al. (1999) provide a relatively non-quantitative introduction to systematic decision analysis procedures. ...
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This article provides a guide to source material for practitioners interested in applying decision analysis methods. Specifically, applications of decision analysis are surveyed that were published from 1990 through 1999 in major English language operations research journals and other closely related journals. In addition, references are presented for recently developed useful decision analysis methods that are not yet included in many introductory textbooks. As used in this article, decision analysis refers to a set of quantitative methods for analyzing decisions that use expected utility as the criterion for identifying the preferred alternative. The paper classifies the applications into six main areas (with sub-areas in parentheses): energy (bidding and pricing, environmental risk, product and project selection, strategy, technology choice, and miscellaneous), manufacturing and services (finance, product planning, R&D project selection, strategy, and miscellaneous), medical, military, public policy, and general. A list is also included of application articles that present significant details about methodological and implementation issues, which are classified into the areas of strategy and/or objectives generation, problem structuring/formulation, probability assessment, utility/value assessment, sensitivity analysis, co mmunication/facilitation, group issues, and implementation. Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature
... According to the above perspective, it stands out that " integrated evaluations " can be a key tool to support the decision-making process, especially when uncertainty, complexity and values of different social groups are many, different and conflicting (van der Sluijs, 2002). Integrated evaluations not only consider the inputs of data expressing the impacts of different solutions, but are also " open " to a wide public participation, so that they can offer more information for the evaluation itself and, in addition, can make the decisionmaking processes and the results more acceptable (Golub, 1997; Munda, 2008). Participation becomes essential not only to examine and evaluate choices on social, ethic, political, economic, environmental levels, but also to legitimate choices and make them acceptable for the community itself. ...
... The vigor and continued development of decision analysis is demonstrated by the substantial number of textbooks and other references on decision analysis applications that were published during [1990][1991][1992][1993][1994][1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001]. Decision analysis textbooks include Bell and Schleifer (1995), Clemen (1996), Golub (1997), Goodwin and Wright (1998), Marshall and Oliver (1995), Celona (1990, 2001), and Skinner (1999). Kirkwood (1992Kirkwood ( , 1999 provides brief introductions to decision analysis methods, while Hammond et al. (1999) provide a relatively non-quantitative introduction to systematic decision analysis procedures. ...
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This chapter identifies, and provides perspective on, trends and developments in decision analysis applications, based primarily on an exhaustive survey of decision analysis applications published in the period 1990-2001 in major English-language operations research and closely related journals. It serves as a guide to those interested in recent applications in specific areas or in applications that illustrate the use of particular methods. We compare the characteristics of the applications articles surveyed here with those of applications articles appearing in a similar set of journals between 1970 and 1989 and conclude that the overall rate of publication of decision analysis applications has increased. In addition, we find that both the mix of application areas and the specific aspects of decision analysis that are emphasized in applications publications have shifted somewhat. We also identify and discuss noteworthy trends in, and developments affecting, published applications, including those in computer software and software- related tools, decision conferencing, stochastic trees, value-focused thinking, normative systems, organizational processes, and real options. We highlight several award-winning decision analysis applications and discuss formation of a new practitioner-oriented professional group. Finally, we present some concerns and thoughts on future needs for advancing decision analysis practice.
... Moreover managerial decision-making should not be so dependent on one person. Theory of decision-making has taken, as its subject matters how individuals and groups make decisions [2], [4], [5]. The goal for much of this work has been the production of a model of decision making -a model general enough to describe individual cases of decision making while drawing out important generalities across different individuals and situations. ...
Article
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Manager who is adjusted to think about decision process in the terms of intuitive process, rational model, and model of bounded rationality is usually confused with many technical details describing something he does not understand. To take more advantage of decision support tools managers need IT professionals to speak with the same language. This article represents an attempt how to use managerial language in order to describe decision support tools.
... The aim of any decision procedure is to place more emphasis on those candidates that will enhance the decision maker's total satisfaction with the recommended results [3]. This overarching objective will tie together the conflicting objectives typical of the pattern decision problem. ...
Conference Paper
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Object-oriented software patterns account for knowledge regarding a solution to a programming problem in a context. Software patterns are increasingly popular and consequently their numbers are growing. Under these circumstances, it is a challenge for the pattern user to decide on which patterns to incorporate into their design. In this paper, we describe a pattern decision analysis approach that provides pragmatic support to making this design decision.
Chapter
The paper intends to point out the case study of the UNESCO site “Pompeii, Herculaneum and Oplontis” and its buffer zone, listed in the World Heritage List since 1997 for its exceptional cultural, artistic, and scientific value. In 2014 the Italian Ministry of Cultural Assets prepared a new version of the site management plan to ensure a more effective protection of the values recognised therein. The update also suggested to extend the buffer zone to a vast, complex, and densely populated area, one of the widest in Italy. A strategic development plan was drafted for this area, whose objectives are in apparent contradiction with those outlined in the site’s management plan. We thus propose an integrated assessment model characterised by an incremental approach to plan choices, which can balance the conflicts between conservation and development issues.KeywordsStrategic planWorld Heritage SiteIntegrated assessment
Chapter
This chapter advocates the utilization of integrated leadership, as well as attempts to enhance integrated leadership by crafting business decision-making theories in the recruitment and management of nonprofits’ volunteers, especially the Baby Boomers. The researcher contextualizes that enhanced integrated leadership style will stand the buffet of the next decade.
Article
Choosing an appropriate bachelor program and university is a common scenario. In Malaysia, one major group of bachelor program prospect students is Sijil Tinggi Persekolahan Malaysia (STPM, Malaysian High School Certificate) leavers. The prospect students made the selection based on several factors, including the requirement by the university, personal preferences, and influences by parents, teachers, and peers. The decision made is normally unstructured and bias due to the personal preferences and the influencers. This research aims to study “Technique for Order Preference for Similarity to an Ideal Solution” (TOPSIS) from the multiple attribute decision making (MADM) method family in assisting the STPM leavers in choosing the program and university. Decision criteria are obtained from a group of STPM students (domain experts). The actual requirement from twenty Malaysian public universities and STPM results are used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. The illustrative experiments and results of the study have successfully shown the ranked alternatives.
This article discusses the use of design thinking in an undergraduate decision-making course. The spaces of design are linked to the dimensions of liberal learning in a way that allows students to engage in the design of an organization that supports a new product created in a collaborative team. The article provides an overview of how the innovation project requires students to manage competing ideas, engage in multiple thinking styles, and use visualization tools. Reflections of the instructor and students about their learning from the experience are included. The results of a course survey and content analysis provide evidence of the effectiveness of the course.
Conference Paper
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This paper is about developing a methodological framework for a multidimensional spatial decision-making process oriented to the identification of a territorial transformation strategy reflecting shared values. Through the empirical investigation in an operative case study, the Avellino-Rocchetta S. Antonio railway line, in the South of Italy, an integrated evaluative approach implemented in a SDSS can make us go beyond space and hierarchical limits. Taking into account the different multidimensional components of decision-making process, making clear the weights and recognizing the different priorities, fit and situated strategies have been identified, according to an interactive and dynamic dialogue among expertise and local communities.
Article
This is a case study in the development of a statutory policy concerning victims' rights in the death penalty phase of capital trials in New Jersey. It employs the case method in the analysis of criminal justice policy development. It initially examines the historic roots of policy development as a field of study and then examines the factors leading to a new policy on victim impact testimony. It focuses on the key positions taken by the major stakeholders in the policy debate in the state legislature as well as the subsequent court challenge. Legislative testimony and legal briefs are examined. The study concludes that policy development is a rational process reflecting a careful balancing of political and legal interests.
Article
Understanding how environmental policy decisions were reached in the past might help predict policy development in the future. This paper evaluates how well two existing frameworks for decision analysis fit acid rain policy development of the UK Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) in the 1980s. Decision tree analysis assumes a rational approach to decision-making and overlooks the dynamic nature of the decision making process. Trudgill's model identifies barriers to policy development, but it is not possible to identify which are most important. Both concentrate on the role of scientific uncertainty in the acid rain debate. An alternative approach is presented which identifies all possible influencing factors and assesses their relative influence. Whilst confirming the importance of the resolution of scientific uncertainty in this case study, it identifies a number of alternative pressure sources, including independent scientific review, rises in SO2 emissions, European environmental legislation, and influences within the Government. In all three models, ascribing predictive values to all possible options is a major problem. All models are limited in their ability to describe complex and dynamic environmental problems, and hence have limited predictive powers. Decision tree analysis and Trudgill's barriers model identify how scientific uncertainty is dealt with within organisations, whilst the influencing factors approach puts decisions in a broader, political framework.
Article
This study focuses on examining the structure of decision support systems (DSS) research, with a particular emphasis on assessing the contributions of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) to the development of each of the DSS subspecialty areas. This study traces how concepts and findings by researchers in the MCDM area have been picked up by DSS researchers to be applied, extended and refined in the development of DSS research subspecialties. In doing so, factor analysis is applied to an author cocitation frequency matrix derived from a large database file of comprehensive DSS literature. This study concludes that researchers in the MCDM area have made crucial contributions to the development of DSS research subspecialties. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
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Transportation strategies encompass a portfolio of projects in which choices must be made between competing alternatives. An appropriate portfolio of projects is essential for the success and growth of transportation agencies. The introduction and implementation of emerging technologies such as intelligent transportation systems (ITS) increase the need for more effective decision-making approaches and project selection in the coming years. Transportation projects, particularly, have a broad impact on the public and are multicriteria in nature. The projects also involve several elements of risk, such as project success, public acceptance, or public image. Traditional methods of project evaluation such as benefit–cost analysis focus mainly on the financial rewards of projects and do not sufficiently consider multicriteria and risk evaluations in an integrated framework. Development of an objective and systematic methodology that could address the multicriteria nature of the projects and also deal with their risks and rewards is necessary for both private and public agencies. This need is important particularly when new technologies are implemented, information on project impacts is insufficient, and resources are constrained. An integrated project portfolio selection model is introduced based on the well-established methodologies used for multicriteria evaluation and proven concepts used for portfolio selection in the finance discipline. The new methodology significantly facilitates decision making by integrating both the risk and the value of projects. A case study for selecting ITS projects in a public agency is demonstrated. Guidance is provided in nontechnical language for interpreting the outputs of the methodology.
Article
Although the traditional drug development paradigm under which clinical testing proceeds in clearly defined, sequential phases has been a viable model for many years, it is becoming increasingly less sustainable given the challenges of today's environment and expectations for the future. Regulatory agencies as well as pharmaceutical developers are taking steps to support modernizing and increasing the efficiency of drug development. In the arena of clinical trial methodologies, adaptive designs have received much recent attention, holding considerable promise as a means of improving efficiency. In parallel, structured decision analysis as a discipline has the potential for more widespread application in clinical development than is currently witnessed. In this article, we highlight the natural connection that exists between the principles underlying both adaptive design and decision analysis. The latter may be seen as an enabling tool for the former and warrants consideration for more deliberate application at broader levels of drug development.
Article
This paper provides a framework for the evaluation of existing and planned tourist facilities. We review a number of appraisals made by or for the Province of New Brunswick and show how they fit into our general framework. We then outline a method that allows us to measure the robustness of the evaluations.RésuméLe présent article propose un cadre pour l'évaluation d'installations touristiques existantes et planifiées. On y étudie plusieurs méthodesd'évaluation conçues par la province de Nouveau-Brunswick, ou à son intention. On démontre comment elles s'insèrent dans notre cadre d'évaluation. On esquisse enfin une méthode permettant de mesurer la robustesse des évaluations.
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This paper presents a decision support model COSIMA that examines socio-economic feasibility risks involved in the implementation of transport infrastructure projects. Conventionally, cost-benefit analysis is used to examine transport infrastructure projects by taking a relatively scarce number of project effects into account as travel time, vehicle operating costs, accidents and construction costs. Current days' decision-makers, however, demand that a larger set of effects, comprising for example strategic development and landscape issues, is considered. The COSIMA approach set out in the paper deals with this decision problem where "hard" and "soft" criteria mix together. The methodology takes explicit account of the varying information available by segregating criteria and by making use of scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.
Technical Report
This report on making better use of information to drive improvement in local public services was commissioned from the School of Public Policy at the University of Birmingham, by the Audit Commission. It explores how decision makers use information when making decisions. These decision makers can be politicians, top managers, operational managers, planners etc. The focus of this report is not on the use of performance indicators sensu stricto, but on the use of information more generally. Rather than studying how existing information is used or not used in decision making, this report is looking at how decision makers go about searching, analysing, summarising, processing and interpreting information when they need to make a decision.The report consists of three main chapters:Chapter 2: A summary of key government policy initiatives in the UK to stimulate the use of information in decision makingChapter 3: A review of the relevant research literature. This is the main section of the report. In it, we review the role of information in decision making theories, the organisational and structural context of information use, and psychological factors in the use of information in decision makingChapter 4: A presentation of a number of international perspectives on the use of information in public sector decision making Limitations of this study:This study is a literature review, and is limited to the use of information in a public sector context. It has therefore not reviewed how private sector managers use information when making decisions. This has been the object of another study currently undertaken for the Audit Commission. Neither does this study deal with the technical aspects of Management Information Systems.
Conference Paper
Business intelligence (BI) is increasingly becoming a decision-making tool of great importance to organizations. However, BI-mediated information delivery is driven more by data models than by ldquomanagementrdquo decision models. The purpose of this exploratory study is to explore the possibility of modeling management decisions as a first step towards the development of decision-centric BI tools. The methodology is interpretive qualitative research comprising interviews with six senior managers and executives. Findings suggest that decisions featuring less uncertainty with measurable outcomes are more amenable to the use of decision models as a precursor to a decision-centric BI-mediated information delivery.
Article
Power management is an important part of the emerging standard of IEEE 802.16e (mobile WiMAX). The sleep-mode operation in power management helps to increase the life of a station by saving energy consumed, but at the same time it increases the response delay of awakening medium access control (MAC) service data units (SDUs). Its performance metrics, energy consumption and the average response delay of awakening MAC SDUs, are affected by correlations among the initial sleep window (Tmin), the final sleep window (Tmax), and the average interarrival time of awakening MAC SDUs (TI) during sleep-mode operation. There is a trade-off relationship between the performance metrics, so it is imperative to determine the most effective size for the two windows, Tmin and Tmax, in order to reduce energy consumption and still maintain a reasonable response delay time. To reach a fuller understanding of this problem, this paper first models sleep-mode operation in an IEEE 802.16e system and analyzes the effects of the size of the windows on the performance. Based on this analysis, the authors then present a decision making process for leveraging the two performance metrics by manipulating the size of the windows. The decision making process aims to provide some guidelines for determining the most advantageous size of each window to achieve the targeting performance goals.
Article
Decision problems often consist of numerous smaller decisions that are aggregated and interrelated while spanning multiple domains, paradigms, and/or perspectives. Therefore, the decision making process should be structured in such a flexible and iterative manner that enables a range of structured to unstructured decisions to be considered, built and solved in an appropriate manner. We propose and implement a framework and architecture that uses the three pillars of flexibility in decision making (sequential, parallel, convergence, and interwoven), versatility (of paradigm and/or domain), and independence of components (value, dimension, and purpose) to support the decision making process and the entire modelling lifecycle.
Article
Our original article (Chinyio et al., 1998a) 'A needs based methodology for classifying construction clients and selecting contractors', Construction Management and Economics, 16 (1), 91-98 discussed the empirical classification of construction clients and illustrated a new methodology for selecting contractors. The techniques we adopted have not been applied in a construction scenario before and thus their implementation may face teething difficulties as differences between construction and the disciplines from which the techniques were adopted are ironed out. Due to brevity we did not highlight some of the potential problems their implementation would encounter, as we could not explain everything on the subject matters in one article. Skitmore and Mills (1999) in a comment, Construction Management and Economics, 17 (1), 5-7, highlighted some anticipated difficulties and posed some insightful questions concerning the applicability of our concepts. From an optimistic perspective we have addressed most of the sundry issues raised by Skitmore and Mills wherein 'Decision Analysis' was reviewed as a basis for responding to the comments.
Article
Contemporary approaches to natural resources and environmental decision-making typically draw on a "systems" perspective to assess and improve management strategies. This paper describes the early genesis of the systems analysis approach. It concentrates on a period between the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. During the early part of this period, George Marsh's Man and Nature and related works laid out an approach to problem-solving that recognized the relationship among physically disperse elements in the environment, the need to balance benefits against costs, the potential for using quantitative modeling to understand management options, and the importance of integrating human and natural components into solutions. In the early 20th century, the Miami Conservancy District project brought this approach to fruition with its use of complex simulation and optimization modeling, detailed cost-benefit analysis, and its linking of economics, engineering, science, and law into a far-reaching solution to a complex water resources problem. The objective of this paper is to describe the early development and application of this conceptual approach to problem-solving. An examination of the origins of natural resources systems analysis can broaden one's perspective of the contemporary field to understand its roots as a philosophy for environmental problem-solving.
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Decision analysis consists of a set of tools supporting and handling structured evaluation. Such methodology is widely used for the economic evaluation of health care planning and programmes. This article outlines some characteristics regarding complex decision-making and shows the fundamental issues and stages considered when making decisions in an uncertain scenario (problem definition, choosing an appropriate time-frame, structuring the problem, developing a model for analysing it, selecting the best alternative and analysing sensitivity). Some criticism of this decision-making method is then made.
Conference Paper
The subjective user satisfaction related to viewing a video on a resource constrained mobile device is modeled by using a utility function. The resulting models account for different video content characteristics and varying hardware capabilities of the viewing device. The user satisfaction is divided into two independent components, namely the temporal and the spatial satisfaction. Subjective video evaluation experiments are performed to obtain the models for each component. These components are combined by using a weighted sum. The frame-rate and the bit-rate that maximizes the total utility is then obtained by the optimization algorithms. It is further demonstrated that the utility curves obtained through subjective tests for a limited number of devices can be interpolated to generate utility curves for other devices with different hardware capabilities.
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The complexity and long development time inherent in building decision support systems has thus far prevented their wide use. A new class of tools, DSS generators, seeks to cut the lead time between development and deployment. DSS generators provide tools that make it easier and faster to develop models, data, and user interfaces that are customized to the application's requirements. Using a DSS generator reduces DSS development to a decision analysis task-which requires expertise in decision analysis and mathematical modeling-rather than a programming task. DSS generators are crucial to the success of DSSs in practice. We describe the state of the art in DSS generator software, specifically in the realm of decision analysis methods. Decision analysis techniques account for the uncertain, dynamic, and multicriteria aspects of decisions. Essentially, they aid the evaluation of alternatives in the face of trade-offs. Well known decision analysis methods include decision trees and influence diagrams. We briefly describe the features of 11 commercially available DSS generators that specialize in decision analysis. Although not a comprehensive, complete analysis of these tools, the article clarifies the idea of DSS generators as DSS development environments and presents an overview of the progress in this area
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