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Sino–Russian Relations at the Start of the New Millennium in Central Asia and Beyond

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Abstract

Sino–Russian relations have swayed considerably in the second millennium. During the Yeltsin era, China–Russia relations were still strong, but this changed abruptly after Putin's accession to the presidency in 2000 and his initial pro-Western adventures. This was, in no small part, due to Russia's involvement in the war on terror, together with Russia's complicity in a US military presence in Central Asia which did not go down well in Beijing. Putin's domestic constituency found his swing into Washington's fold equally awkward, which created no small amount of criticism in Russia. Convinced that things could not get much worse, Putin's acceptance of NATO's expansion into the Baltics, his approval of US withdrawal from the ABM-treaty, and his quiet consent for an American military presence in Georgia raised additional fears in the Duma, within Russian public opinion, and to some extent among the Chinese. This was perceived as a direct surrender to American superiority and aggression, and it would not last for long.

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... But additional causes of increasing China-Russia cooperation have also been put forward. These include shared illiberal regime types and common preferences regarding norms of sovereignty and human rights (Menon 2009;Rozman 2014;Lukin 2015;Cox 2016;Charap et al. 2017), compatible political models and national identities (Kerr 2005;Ferdinand 2007;Kuchins 2007;Rozman 2014;Trenin 2012;Wishnick 2017), mutual concerns about ethnic separatism (Kerr 2005;Lo 2008;Weitz 2012;Odgaard 2017), prospective gains from economic cooperation (Kerr 2005;Wilson 2004;Swanström 2014;Lukin 2015;Trenin 2012;Gabuev 2016;Charap et al. 2017), and personal affinity among national leaders (Ferdinand 2007;Lo 2008;Gabuev 2016). ...
... Others, including [some] people who are [otherwise] brilliant and sophisticated, are sleepwalkers: they unconsciously use metaphors as models." economic complementarity (Swanström 2014), and national identity (Rozman 2014;Wishnick 2017) to the exclusion of any alternative hypotheses. Yet much of the evidence cited in such works-e.g., China's and Russia's common dissatisfaction with the status quo order, joint membership in the SCO and the BRICS, concerns over NATO expansion, "non-zero sum" characterization of their strategic partnership, opposition to American hegemony, and increasing bilateral trade and investmentis observationally equivalent; that is, it supports multiple alternative hypotheses. ...
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... Sino-Russian relations, however, improved more than Sino-US relations in the post-Cold War period. 30 One of the important reasons for this was the common security concerns of both countries vis-à-vis US hegemony in the international order in the post-Cold War era. Rising economic and regional security concerns also urged both countries to establish the Shanghai Five, a regional cooperation organization, in 1996. ...
... First, it can help understand the state of contemporary China-Russia relations that the existing literature has so far failed to reach a consensus on, as captured by titles such as "Rapprochement or Rivalry?" (Garnett 2000) or "Rivalry or Partnership?" (Bedeski and Swanström 2012) and can be seen in the related studies, which are divided into those that are doubtful about the durability of the China-Russia partnership (Lo 2009;Menon 2009;Brenton 2013;Swanström 2014;Wilson 2016) and those that believe that it has strong foundations or at least that the existing bilateral hurdles are not insurmountable (Wilkins 2008;Ambrosio 2017;Kaczmarski 2017;Odgaard 2017;Wishnick 2017). Second, understanding China's and Russia's reactions can help envisage the limits the two countries' further geopolitical resurgence is likely to face. ...
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It has been widely noted that China and Russia have grown progressively closer over the last two decades. Although the scholarly literature has offered detailed descriptions and various ad hoc explanations of this trend, the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship has been the subject of very little scrutiny using rigorous theory, which has obstructed hypothesis formation and evaluation. Moreover, the cooperative post-Cold War trend in the bilateral relationship seems puzzling for baseline versions of each of the major paradigms of international relations theory: realism, constructivism and liberalism. This introductory chapter reviews the centrality of theory for explanation and critiques prevailing atheoretical approaches to China-Russia scholarship. It then contrasts this past work with the subsequent chapters in the present volume, which develop and apply nuanced theoretical arguments to derive testable hypotheses for the cooperative trend in China–Russia relations. In contrast to existing scholarship, these chapters offer generalizable insights that both improve our understanding of a crucially important contemporary case, while also advancing IR theory in substantial ways.
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In the previous chapters I discussed threat narratives that were both targeted by customized political acts and widely accepted by the public as such. What happens when one of the success criteria is not there? If a threat is not existential, does it constitute a successful securitization? If the public is no longer debating it, does it mean that securitization failed? This chapter discusses the cases that cannot be deemed as successful securitizations based on the two aforementioned success criteria: either there is no customized political act or it is not accepted as a threat by the audience.
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