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Tradeoff between optimum altitude and contrail layer to ensure maximum ecological en-route performance using the enhanced trajectory prediction model (ETPM)
Abstract
The Enhanced Trajectory Prediction Model (ETPM) is a logical extension of our analytic performance calculation framework "Enhanced Jet Performance Model" (EJPM), [1]. The ETPM is now capable to predict 4D trajectories of commercial or military jet aircraft with significantly increased model accuracy compared to existing performance tools such as BADA [4]. The EJPM so allows track optimization with regard to individual target functions as set out at ICAO and subsequently as SESAR Key Performance Areas (KPA's). The presented extended model ETPM features an automated "green" en-route flight profile optimization while trading off between optimum altitude (towards maximum specific range) and minimum contrail induction (using the Schmidt Appleman criterion). This leads to maximum ecological en-route performance as radiation forces and CO2 emissions are minimized while flying under long range cruise conditions. This paper introduces both, the ETPM concept and the contrail generation model, the application and data trial for an automated 4D cruise phase optimization for given ecological objective function. It can be shown that useful compromises between environmental protection and most economic flight operations can be reached. This is based on the findings, that contrail sensitive air density layers are relatively thin.
... This model had been applied to automated four-dimensional descent path optimization considering the target function of minimum fuel and the constraints by existing standard arrival routes [10]. Furthermore, Kaiser et al. [11] did an application of the ETPM to calculate optimized trajectories with respect to minimum fuel flow on the condition of stringent avoidance of condensation trail formation. ...
... The time t while the wake vortices descent during the dissipation regime depends on stratification (N) and turbulence (ε). The impact of stratification is considered by 11) where N n [a.u.] denotes the normalized Brunt-Väisälä frequency N n = N t n and t n [s] ...
... 11 shows the influence of the vertical wind velocity v z on the development of the particle radius r p and on the contrail life time (x-axis). For v z > 0.01 m s −1 , the contrail lives unrealistically long. ...
Persistent condensation trails are clouds, induced by the exhaust of an aircraft engine in a cold and ice-supersaturated environment. These artificial ice clouds can both cool and heat the atmosphere by scattering solar radiation and absorbing terrestrial radiation, respectively.
The influence of condensation trails on the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and therewith the answer to the question of the dominating process had been mostly approximated on a global scale by treating the condensation trail as plane parallel layer with constant optical properties. Individual condensation trails and the influence of the solar angle had been analyzed, always using a course spatial grid and never under consideration of the aircraft performance, generating the condensation trail. For a trajectory optimization, highly precise results of the impact of condensation trails on the radiation budget and the influence of the aircraft performance on this impact is needed, so that future air traffic may consider the main factors of flight performance on the environmental impact of condensation trails. That’s why, a model is developed in this thesis to continuously estimate the scattering and absorption properties and their dependence on the aircraft performance.
... A high spatial resolution is crucial for a positive identification and has led to the selection of hyperspectral imagery data for this case study. The current literature [10][11][12][13][14] shows significant spatial and spectral resolution constraints in machine learning for AIC identification, thereby leading to a low confidence. Specific domain skill gaps discovered by a literature review include physical tropospheric patterns, hyperspectral remote sensing, and airline threaded flight tracks as gaps. ...
... The spectral resolution of the AVIRIS image used in this study is 224 bands, whereas the typical satellite spectral resolution is around 16 bands. These limitations in resolution lead to a low confidence of AIC detection from satellite imagery and high rates of false positives and false negatives [10][11][12][13][14]. These limitations in spectral and spatial resolutions serve as deciding factors in the use of hyperspectral data for the methodology proposed in this paper. ...
Aircraft-Induced Clouds (AICs), colloquially called contrails, form from the emission of soot from jet engines during cruise flight in favorable atmospheric conditions. AICs absorb, scatter, and reflect shortwave and longwave radiation. This radiative transfer has a cooling effect during the day; however, the night experiences an overwhelming warming effect, which leads to an overall warming effect on Earth, contributing to anthropogenically propelled climate change. Reducing AICs significantly mitigates aviation’s contribution to climate change by reducing the disruption in Earth’s radiation budget. Researchers have proposed AIC Abatement Programs (AAPs) to increase cruise flight levels without additional fuel burn. In order to effectively implement AAPs, it is crucial to be able to accurately identify AICs from publicly available aerial and satellite imagery. This study aims at the identification of AICs from hyperspectral imagery to help the effective implementation of an AAP and to mitigate climate change. This paper describes a method for the hyperspectral analysis of aerial images in order to accurately identify AICs through a case study based in West Virginia. The results show that both the Adaptive Coherence Estimator and the Matched Filter algorithms based on unique in-scene spectra were successful in the isolation of the AICs from other cloud types and the background. It is found that AICs can be identified with 84% confidence in this case study. The method, a case study, and future works are provided.
... Prior research has shown that contrail formation can be mitigated by modifying flight altitude [5]; generating in exchange a tradeoff between contrail formation and fuel burn and its CO2 emissions. Strategies to manage persistent contrail formations include economic options such as carbon trading or carbon cap schemes. ...
... Kaiser et. al. [5] present an Enhanced Trajectory Prediction Model (ETPM) which takes into account the combined effect of RF produced by CO2 and Contrails. They model a flight from Amsterdam Schiphol (EHAM) to Salzburg (LOWS) on Jan 19 th 2012 and run alternative flight paths through the model using weather conditions that produce contrails in 3 of the 5 stations along the route. ...
... It should be noted, however, that previous airport research has primarily focused on technical areas such as planning, design, construction, and legal and environmental issues (Inamete, 1993). Research in aviation and airport operations has confidently addressed economic and ecological efficiency and the estimation of Air Traffic Management system resilience and its impact on airport operational performance (Rosenow, 2018;Schumann et al., 2011;Kaiser et al., 2012). Measurement of operational and sustainable logistics performance in international airports is crucial given their role in improving the country's economy and local government (Graham, 2023). ...
Research on measuring airport operational performance has predominantly focused on technical aspects. However, there is still a need for studies to be conducted on measuring sustainable logistics and operational performance at international airports. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive measurement system for the Airport Operations Division in Indonesia that incorporates both operational and sustainable logistics performance. This will be achieved by integrating the company's vision, mission, and strategy into various performance measures using the Balanced Scorecard concept. The research methodology employed quantitative research methods, including primary data collection through observation and questionnaires. These questionnaires were developed using a pairwise comparison matrix derived from the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Data was collected from five international airports in Indonesia. The findings of the study demonstrate that the application of the Balanced Scorecard, coupled with the Objective Matrix method for setting performance targets and enriched with the AHP approach, enables the identification of priorities and assessment of performance. The research emphasizes the significance of considering non-financial aspects when measuring airport performance. This is crucial for supporting strategic decision-making and promoting sustainable performance improvement.
... Penelitian bandar udara terutama terkonsentrasi pada bidang teknis seperti perencanaan, desain, konstruksi, dan masalah hukum dan lingkungan [8]. Penelitian terkini lainnya di bidang operasional penerbangan dan bandar udara membahas isu ekonomi, efisiensi ekologi, dan operasional bandara [9] serta estimasi ketahanan sistem Manajemen Lalu Lintas Udara serta dampaknya pada variasi kinerja operasional bandara [10] [11]. Pengukuran kinerja bukanlah suatu hal yang mudah karena bandar udara adalah lingkungan bisnis besar yang kompleks dan terdiri dari berbagai proses yang didistribusikan perusahaan yang berbeda, yang semakin diperumit oleh peraturan regulator [12]. ...
Bandar udara sebagai pelayanan publik harus memiliki kinerja yang baik untuk memenuhi standar operasional agar pengguna merasa puas. Bandar udara Kertajati baru beroperasi sehingga peningkatan mutu operasional bandar udara menjadi perhatian utama untuk menunjang kinerja yang dapat memenuhi standar pelayanan operasional. Dalam rangka evaluasi kinerja, maka diperlukan pengukuran kinerja operasional untuk Divisi Pelayanan Operasi Bandar Udara Kertajati. Namun, belum tersedianya alat pengukuran kinerja yang baik akan mengakibatkan hasil pengukuran kinerja operasional tidak dapat memberikan hasil yang baik pula. Untuk itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menetapkan pedoman pengukuran, pembuatan hierarki, dan rancangan kinerja operasional di Bandara Internasional Kertajati menggunakan Balanced Scorecard, AHP, dan metode OMAX. Metodologi penelitian mencakup penetapan ukuran kinerja berbasis Balanced Scorecard, penyusunan hierarki menggunakan AHP, dan perancangan pengukuran kinerja dengan metode OMAX di bandara internasional. Penelitian ini menetapkan ukuran kinerja operasional Bandara Kertajati dengan prioritas tertinggi pada perspektif pelanggan (55,40%), diikuti finansial (19,40%), internal (18,20%), dan pertumbuhan pembelajaran (6,90%). Temuan ini memberikan kerangka evaluasi kinerja yang terukur dan sistematis. Hasilnya menjadi dasar strategis untuk meningkatkan kualitas pelayanan bandara. Dari sudut pandang praktis, penerapan BSC membantu pengelolaan bandara di Indonesia merumuskan strategi yang komprehensif, menetapkan sasaran yang jelas, dan menyesuaikan layanan serta operasional dengan kebutuhan pelanggan dalam menghadapi tantangan global.
... Therewith, the degree of freedom increases significantly in flight performance calculations when considering speed brakes. Probably for this reason, the impact of speed brakes is often not in the focus [3,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] of the relevant models, or is approximated by a constant factor of ∆c D = 0.02 and ∆c L = 0.00 [14]. ...
The increasing influence of current research in air traffic management on daily flight operations leads to a stronger consideration of individually optimized aircraft trajectories. However, in the dichotomy between ecological, economic, and safety-based optimization goals, four-dimensionally optimized trajectories are subject to severe constraints in terms of position and speed. To fully assess the performance envelope of these trajectories, precise modelling of the influence of secondary control surfaces on flight performance is necessary. In particular, the use of speed brakes can significantly influence the descent and speed profile and allows the implementation of different cost indices. In this study, we present a modelling approach of the influence of extended speed brakes on flight performance and apply this method in a simulation environment for trajectory modelling of twelve different aircraft types. In doing so, we can determine an almost linear influence of the additional fuel requirement from the effective area of the speed brakes. The results can be implemented in any flight performance model and enable more precise modelling of future aircraft trajectories. Specifically, optimization targets regarding the required time of arrival, or the cost index and the consideration of the dynamic impact of atmospheric conditions in the trajectory optimization, only becomes possible through the calculation of the influence of the speed brake on lift and drag.
... Current research in the field of aviation and airport operations addresses a broad range of contributions to improve the economic, operational and ecological efficiency of the air transportation system Standfuss et al., 2018;Niklaß et al., 2017;Santos et al., 2017;Ingrid Gerdes et al., 2016;Kaiser et al., 2012;Carlier et al., 2007;Gerdes et al., 2020;. In particular, challenges arise from the climate change and the expected increase of severe weather events are analysed with a focus on resilience and vulnerability of the transportation system conditions (Zhou and Chen, 2020;Markolf et al., 2019;Taszarek et al., 2020;Burbidge, 2016;Stamos et al., 2015). ...
Efficient airport operations depend on appropriate actions and reactions to current constraints. Local weather events and their impact on airport performance may have network-wide effects. The classification of expected weather impacts enables efficient consideration in airport operations on a tactical level. We classify airport performance with recurrent and convolutional neural networks considering weather data. We are using London–Gatwick Airport to apply our developed approach. The weather data is derived from local meteorological reports and airport performance is derived from both flight plan data and reported delays. We show that the application of machine learning approaches is an appropriate method to quantify the correlation between decreased airport performance and the severity of local weather events. The developed models could achieve prediction accuracy higher than 90% for departure movements. We see our approach as one key element for a deeper understanding of interdependencies between local and network operations in the air transportation system.
... Current research in the field of flight and airport operations addresses economic, operational and ecological efficiency (Rosenow et al. 2018;Standfuß et al. 2018;Niklaß et al. 2017;Santos et al. 2017;Gerdes et al. 2016;Kaiser et al. 2012;Carlier et al. 2007). The propagation of delay in the network is paramount when assessing the impact of congestion (Campanelli et al. 2016;Ivanov et al. 2017). ...
Classification of weather impacts on airport operations will allow efficient consideration of local weather events in network-wide analysis. We use machine learning approaches in our contribution to correlate weather data from meteorological reports and airport performance data, which contains flight plan data with scheduled, actual movements and delays. In particular, we applied unsupervised learning to cluster performance impacts at the airport and classify the respective weather data with recurrent and convolutional neural networks. Thus, our machine learning approach allows for both an appropriate matching of decreased airport performance during the occurrence of local weather events as well as a delay estimation based on weather forecast and flight plans. This paper serves to illustrate the potential of classifications with machine learning methods and is the basis for further investigations on this topic. We update current expert-based weather classifications and provide a better understanding of local and network-wide interdependencies in air transportation.
... Left: TOMATO simulated historical data of 8,800 real flights, right: TOMATO optimised these trajectories considering the requested city pairs, aircraft types and departure times. Colours of dark blue, light blue, green, yellow, orange, red and black indicate 0,10,20,30,40,50 and 60 aircraft/h and artificial airspace, respectively. ...
Multicriteria trajectory optimisation is expected to increase aviation safety, efficiency and environmental compatibility, although neither the theoretical calculation of such optimised trajectories nor their implementation into today’s already safe and efficient air traffic flow management reaches a satisfying level of fidelity. The calibration of the underlying objective functions leading to the virtually best available solution is complicated and hard to identify, since the participating stakeholders are very competitive. Furthermore, operational uncertainties hamper the robust identification of an optimised trajectory. These uncertainties may arise from severe weather conditions or operational changes in the airport management. In this study, the impact of multicriteria optimised free route trajectories on the air traffic flow management is analysed and compared with a validated reference scenario which consists of real flown trajectories during a peak hour of Europe’s complete air traffic in the upper airspace. Therefore, the TOolchain for Multicriteria Aircraft Trajectory Optimisation (TOMATO) is used for both the multicriteria optimisation of txrajectories and the calculation of the reference scenario. First, this paper gives evidence for the validity of the simulation environment TOMATO, by comparison of the integrated reference results with those of the commercial fast-time air traffic optimiser (AirTOp). Second, TOMATO is used for the multicriteria trajectory optimisation, the assessment of the trajectories and the calculation of their integrated impact on the air traffic flow management, which in turn is compared with the reference scenario. Thereby, significant differences between the reference scenario and the optimised scenario can be identified, especially considering the taskload due to frequent altitude changes and rescinded constraints given by waypoints in the reference scenario. The latter and the strong impact of wind direction and wind speed cause wide differences in the patterns of the lateral trajectories in the airspace with significant influence on the airspace capacity and controller’s taskload. With this study, the possibility of a successful 4D free route implementation into Europe’s upper airspace is proven even over central Europe during peak hours, when capacity constraints are already reaching their limits.
... Current research in the field of flight and airport operations addresses economic, operational and ecological efficiency [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. As presented above, the propagation of delay in the network is paramount when assessing the impact of congestion [23,24]. ...
Weather events have a significant impact on airport performance and cause delayed operations if the airport capacity is constrained. We provide quantification of the individual airport performance with regards to an aggregated weather-performance metric. Specific weather phenomena are categorized by the air traffic management airport performance weather algorithm, which aims to quantify weather conditions at airports based on aviation routine meteorological reports. Our results are computed from a data set of 20.5 million European flights of 2013 and local weather data. A methodology is presented to evaluate the impact of weather events on the airport performance and to select the appropriate threshold for significant weather conditions. To provide an efficient method to capture the impact of weather, we modelled departing and arrival delays with probability distributions, which depend on airport size and meteorological impacts. These derived airport performance scores could be used in comprehensive air traffic network simulations to evaluate the network impact caused by weather induced local performance deterioration.
... If the aircraft is departing from one airport, changes with regards to arrival time at the next are comparatively small [4]. Current research in the field of flight operations addresses economic, operational and ecological efficiency [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. To evaluate these operational deviations in the economic context, reference values are provided for the cost of delay to European airlines [12]. ...
In this paper we address the prediction of aircraft boarding using a machine learning approach. Reliable process predictions of aircraft turnaround are an important element to further increase the punctuality of airline operations. In this context, aircraft turnaround is mainly controlled by operational experts, but the critical aircraft boarding is driven by the passengers’ experience and willingness or ability to follow the proposed procedures. Thus, we used a developed complexity metric to evaluate the actual boarding progress and a machine learning approach to predict the final boarding time during running operations. A validated passenger boarding model is used to provide reliable aircraft status data, since no operational data are available today. These data are aggregated to a time-based complexity value and used as input for our recurrent neural network approach for predicting the boarding progress. In particular we use a Long Short-Term Memory model to learn the dynamical passenger behavior over time with regards to the given complexity metric.
... If the aircraft is departing from one airport, changes with regards to arrival time at the next are comparatively small [4]. This is why current research in the field of flight operations addresses economic, operational and ecological efficiency [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. To evaluate these operational deviations in the economic context, reference values are provided for the cost of delay to European airlines [12]. ...
... radiative forcing, RF). 7 The avoidance of contrail formation induces large detours around or underneath ice supersaturated regions in the atmosphere, [6][7][8][9] which in turn cause more fuel burn and emissions and an additionally impact on efficiency and environmental compatibility itself. 10 Even an impact on safety regarding separation requirements is conceivable. ...
Today, the European airspace is already faced with airspace capacity constraints, especially during business driven peak periods of the day in central European air traffic control sectors. This capacity bottleneck will cause a challenging number of severe difficulties in future flight planning and airport ground handling. Additionally, the growing public awareness and the increasing scientific knowledge of the aviation environmental impact urges air traffic stakeholders to reduce the aviation induced global warming to an acceptable level. These efforts should include both the prevention of unnecessary fuel burn due to detours and the avoidance of passing ice-supersaturated regions during cruise to prevent contrail formation. Therewith, conflicting goals have to be considered in trajectory optimization. The induced contrails influence the radiation budget of the Earth atmosphere, which depend on the dynamic size and location of the ice-supersaturated regions. However, contrail avoidance can lead to unsolvable high requirements on airspace capacity in dry and warm air spaces, where contrails are not induced.
Furthermore, contrail avoidance procedures can lead to large detours, which in turn cause more fuel burn and an increased impact on the environment due to the emission of additional radiative active substances. In this paper, the Air Traffic Control Fast Time Simulator and Air Traffic Optimizer AirTOp is used to simulate one day of Europeans air traffic and to reduce the radiative forcing of contrails by minimizing the number of flight hours through dynamic ice-supersaturated regions. Rerouting the affected flights does this, so that separation requirements are still fulfilled and each aircraft still reaches its destination. In this paper the following measures are assessed without and with contrail involved rerouting: the decrease of airspace capacity, the additional distance flown, the additional fuel burn and the contrail induced environmental impact. We found, that rerouting on this special day would have caused higher additional fuel and time costs, than saved reduced contrail costs.
... It relies on a six degree-of-freedom aircraft model. It is specifically capable of providing trajectory data for cruise [12] and (CDO)descent [13] and climb with a position/fuel consumption error around 1% for deriving flight intent or target information on where the aircraft should fly to achieve its target state (e.g. minimum fuel/emissions). ...
Aircraft fuel burn reduction is often regarded as one of the benefits of new air transportation operational paradigms around the world. As phases of NextGen, SESAR and Australian AATMP come to maturity, the questions are pivoting from what benefits will be to what have we achieved. This pivot puts pressure on aircraft fuel modeling techniques being able to distinguish between the contribution of ATM and non-ATM factors. In addition, there are many fuel estimators used around the world, and their range of fidelity varies widely; in fact, fuel savings as result of ATM improvements are frequently of the same magnitude of the error produced by the models used for their estimation. This paper summarizes an initial collaboration between researchers from several globally recognized institutions to address the question of fidelity of fuel estimation that may be required for different types of benefit assessments of Air Traffic Management improvements. Interviews were conducted initially to categorize common elements that typical ATM studies share. An international team of fuel modelers was assembled and participated by running their models on a common set of inputs. The outputs generated by these models, were categorized using metrics on empirical trajectories and other operational data, including predicted fuel burn. This provided a foundation for studying impacts of different fuel estimation approaches and assumptions, and how they relate to the analysis of fuel efficiency.
... The EJPM relies on a six degree-offreedom aircraft model with smart simplifications to improve speed and stability of computation. It is specifically capable of providing trajectory data for cruise [2] and (CDO)-descent [3] with a position / fuel consumption error around 1% for deriving flight intent or target information on where the aircraft should fly to achieve its target function (e. g. minimum fuel). ...
In this paper the existing continuous descent operations (CDO) procedures at three relevant German airports are analyzed with respect to both the achievable (maximum specific range) and the effectively achieved fuel savings, when compared to conventionally flown arrivals. To do so, we applied our highly precise flight performance model Enhanced Jet Performance Model (EJPM) to several thousand flown trajectories before and after CDO implementation, the data of which were provided to us as radar track data. A technique was developed to estimate the individual aircraft gross mass for calculating the optimum rate of descent starting from the computed flight-specific top of descent (ToD). Furthermore, we considered 3D weather and wind data to determine the CDO trajectory. When locating the trajectories within typical ICAO CDO procedure corridors, we found that the current generic design criteria do not allow using the full fuel-saving potential of CDO. Often because of poor CDO execution from the ground and flight deck, only selected aircraft types managed to maintain the defined boundaries. To gain insight on how much detailed procedure guidance is required, a comprehensive weather and aircraft mass sensitivity analysis is also presented. We found analytic models to improve CDO procedures based on local traffic and meteorological conditions, which should supplement current guidance material.
... Some missing dependencies like compressibility effects in the calculation of the drag coefficient had been considered by [19] resulting in a more precise modeling of the aircraft performance, the Enhanced Jet Performance Model (EJPM). This model had been used and applied for several problems, for example for estimations of the energy share of kinetic and potential energy during continuous descent operations [20], for considerations of flight profiles without contrail formation [21], for the influence of aircraft performance properties on the contrail life cycle [22], for automated trajectories [23,24], and for synchronization of automated arrivals [25]. The target functions for optimization and most of the aerodynamic equations of the EJPM are used in the current trajectory optimization. ...
Today’s airline industry is facing a highly competitive market, so network and trajectory optimization is driven by fuel and time costs, constrained by air traffic management capacity. The resulting climate effects on global warming and on environmental health are reflected in the emission trading system (ETS) certificates. However, the climate impact of air traffic depends on the locality of the emissions. Hence, even the airline network structure affects the air traffic climate impact. This paper presents an approach of the back coupling of network and trajectory optimization, aiming to minimize both climate effects and costs. First, an optimized air traffic network with respect to minimum fuel consumption and minimum climate costs due to latitude-dependent effects of nitric oxides is com- pared with a fuel burn optimized network. Second, a lateral trajectory optimization gives the horizontally shortest flight path with respect to minimum costs due to the latitude- dependent effects of nitric oxides. In a third step, vertical trajectory optimization is applied within the optimized routing structure. The calculated amount of emissions is transferred into carbon dioxide equivalent emissions using the global warming potential. Finally, the emissions are expressed in costs considering the effect of the emissions on global warming with the help of the ETS. These costs are used to evaluate both networks, with and without nitric oxide consideration.
... Some missing dependencies as compressibility effects in the calculation of the drag coefficient had been considered by Kaiser [9] resulting in a more precise modeling of the aircraft performance, the Enhanced Jet Performance Model (EJPM). This model had been used and applied for several problems, for example for estimations of the energy share of kinetic and potential energy during continuous descent operations [10], for considerations of flight profiles without contrail formation [11], for the influence of aircraft performance properties on the contrail life cycle [12], for automated trajectories [10] [13] and for synchronization of automated arrivals [14]. The target functions for optimization and some of the aerodynamic equations of the EJPM are used in COALA. ...
Along the ambitious SESAR objectives, new aircraft performance models are necessary to calculate and optimize free route aircraft specific trajectories considering real weather conditions. Here, an aircraft performance model is presented, which meets these requirements. To consider constant changes in speed and acceleration, the dynamic equation of this unsteady system is solved analytically. Free variables are controlled by an aircraft specific proportional plus integral plus derivative controller. Therewith, the model is based solely on physical functions (except for the drag polar, which is approximated by BADA) and calculates only physically possible trajectories. Several aircraft and engine types are included, the aircraft specific behavior can be modeled in detail and emissions can be quantified. Trajectory optimization is demonstrated by a variation of the cruising altitude and the target speed. Both are effective variables. We found, that the developed optimization target function cannot be generalized for all aircraft types, especially not under real weather conditions. Individual aircraft specific target functions mainly depend on the drag polar, the maximum Mach number and the operating empty weight.
... Some missing dependencies like compressibility effects in the calculation of the drag coefficient had been considered by [20] resulting in a more precise modeling of the aircraft performance, the Enhanced Jet Performance Model (EJPM). This model had been used and applied for several problems, for example for estimations of the energy share of kinetic and potential energy during continuous descent operations [21], for considerations of flight profiles without contrail formation [22], for the influence of aircraft performance properties on the contrail life cycle [3], for automated trajectories [23], [24] and for synchronization of automated arrivals [25]. The target functions for optimization and most of the aerodynamic equations of the EJPM are used in the current trajectory optimization. ...
... [3] With forecast growth in air traffic there is potential for presence of contrails to increase. Kaiser [4] finds that in 2000 the global radiative forcing caused by persistent contrails was of 6.26 10 -9 W/(m 2 hr contrail) compared to 3.785 10 -11 W/(m 2 t CO2 ) caused by CO 2 . An optimized flight trajectory from Amsterdam Schiphol (EHAM) to Salzburg (LOWS) taking fuel burn and weather into account to minimize contrails, raised the fuel burn from 1.97 t to 2.00 t, but decreased the total RF [W m -2 ] from 3.16 10 -9 to 2.37 10 -10 . ...
Multi-criteria trajectory optimization is expected to increase aviation safety, efficiency and environmental compatibility, although both the theoretical calculation of optimized trajectories and their implementation into a safe and efficient Air Traffic Flow Management are not to the extent to which they may be applicable right now. The final domain of objective functions, from which the best available values shall be selected, is rarely quantifiable due to the competitive stakeholders. Furthermore, operational uncertainties complicate the definition of an optimized trajectory. These uncertainties may arise from external dynamic influences, Air Traffic flow Management interactions, severe weather conditions or operational changes in the airport management. In this study, the impact of multi-criteria optimized free route trajectories on the Air Traffic flow Management system is analyzed in detail and compared with a validated reference scenario, which consist of real flown trajectories. This kind of methodology requires trajectory optimization and a fast-time simulation tool. Therefore, the TOolchain for Multicriteria Aircraft Trajectory Optimization TOMATO which main task is the multi-criteria optimization of trajectories is compared with the fast time Air Traffic Optimizer AirTOp tool, which was also used for the simulation of the reference scenario and for the assessment of the impact on the Air Traffic Flow Management. Significant differences between the reference scenario and the optimized scenarios can be identified, especially considering the task load due to frequent altitude changes and rescinded constraints given by way points in the reference scenario. The latter and the strong impact of wind direction and wind speed cause interesting differences in the patterns of the lateral trajectories in the air space with significant influence on the air space capacity and controllers task load.
This paper describes the major results of the UTOPIA project. UTOPIA is part of the SESAR Work Package E program, which is addressing long-term and innovative research for the Single European Sky. One of the greatest challenges that the future ATM system will need to face in the next decades is the integration of new airspace users and the continuous increase in delegating capacity and safety critical traffic management functions to automated systems. The accommodation of these new airspace users, which will have to coexist with conventional users, a widely reorganized airspace and the increased level of automation will necessarily need a paradigm shift with regard to the trajectory management functions. The objective of the UTOPIA project was to provide a better understanding of essential trajectory management functions to efficiently manage heterogeneous traffic considering the increasing presence of autonomous ATM systems. In particular, UTOPIA focused on data models, synchronization requirements and algorithms needed to ensure the safe management of merging traffic in an extended terminal maneuvering area, executed by an autonomous arrival management function acting as separator. The converging flows of traffic that was studied comprise heterogeneous airborne systems, in particular, advanced and legacy flight management systems, representing airspace users with different synchronization capabilities.
The climate impact of aviation induced condensation trails (contrails) and cirrus clouds on the earth radiation budget is of high scientific interest since climate change has become ecologically and economically important also for the traffic sector. To quantify contrail radiation properties, the modelling
of its life cycle and microphysical characteristics is crucial but complex. We present a physical model for contrail evolution of fuel consumption optimized realistic flight profiles depending
on atmospheric properties. This model indicates even under idealized atmospheric conditions small mean ice particle radii (around 10 μm at the end of the life time) and a small number
of ice particles (3 · 1014 particles within a 233 m long contrail section) which result in a measurable climate impact.
Foreword— This paper describes a project that is part of SESAR Workpackage E, which is addressing long-term and innovative research. The project was started early 2011 so this description is limited to an outline of the project objectives augmented by some early findings. Abstract-One of the greatest challenges that the future ATM system will need to face in the next decades is the integration of new airspace users and the continuous increase in delegating capacity and safety critical traffic management functions to automated systems. The accommodation of these new airspace users, which will have to coexist with conventional users, a widely reorganized airspace and the increased level of automation will necessarily need a paradigm shift with regard to the trajectory management functions already foreseen in the SESAR master plan for 2020. The objective of the UTOPIA project is to provide a better understanding of which trajectory management functions will be needed to deal with heterogeneous traffic when those functions are executed by autonomous ATM systems (and humans involved in the decision and execution of the air traffic management actions). In particular, the study executed in this project will focus on the data models, synchronization requirements and algorithms needed to ensure the safe management of merging traffic in an extended TMA, executed by an autonomous arrival management function acting as separator. The converging flows of traffic that will be studied comprise heterogeneous airborne systems, in particular, unmanned air-vehicles and advanced and legacy flight management systems, representing airspace users with different synchronization capabilities.
During 2007, 19% of all European flights were more than 15 min late. One contributor to this delay is the insufficient ground operation performance inducing excessive process durations. Whenever these processes are part of the critical Turnaround (TA) path, such as de-boarding, fuelling, cleaning, catering and boarding, the effects immediately propagate an accumulating delay through the ATM network. Recent studies have investigated into the effects of technical aircraft deficiencies onto TA reliability, and could show that significant potential is given for improvement. Field analyses at German airlines showed that pre-set quality standards for punctuality can actually not be met. This paper extends that analysis by considering the individual inbound delay measured at the gate, revealing the correlation between TA process duration and stability versus a given delay with an analytical model. The concept of dynamically scheduling buffer times to compensate for potential delays into the ground time of aircraft turnaround operations is introduced into our model. It can be shown that dynamic buffering may overcome deficiencies of the currently applied buffer strategies for ground processes. The paper closes with a strategy on how to scale gate time to cope with demanding punctuality requirements from the customer's side. With regards to Airport CDM concepts, the dependencies found may be used in decision support tools to trigger ground handling resource (personnel and tools) planner and motivate for strategies specifically for Ground Handling Companies. I. MOTIVATION – NEED FOR INVESTIGATION The Aircraft Turnaround has been identified to be crucial for airline schedule adherence, for high customer satisfaction, and economic productivity. Productivity is further measured not only by the airline but also by the airport operator, the ground handling companies and the air navigation service provider since all of them have to handle carefully scarce stuff and tool resources. Consequently, the aircraft turnaround is complex in terms of participating parties (s. a.) and of given technical, legal and operational dependencies between individual activities or processes comprising the turnaround: Consequently grid locks are costly here. A number of ground operations have to be processed, in sequence, to service the aircraft. These comprise
Comparing individual components of a total climate impact is traditionally done in
terms of radiative forcing. However, the climate impact of transport systems includes contributions that are likely to imply climate sensitivity parameters distinctly different from the “reference value”
for a homogeneous CO2 perturbation. We propose to introduce efficacy factors for each component into the assessment. The way of proceeding is illustrated using aviation as an example, and prospects for evaluating the other transport system in the EU project QUANTIFY are given.
Full-text of this article is not available in this e-prints service. This article was originally published [following peer-review] in Meteorologische Zeitschrift, published by and copyright Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung. New estimates of the various contributions to the radiative forcing (RF) from aviation are presented, mainly based on results from the TRADEOFF project that update those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). The new estimate of the total RF from aviation for 2000 is approximately the same as that of the IPCC’s estimate for 1992. This is mainly a consequence of the strongly reduced RF from contrails, which compensates the increase due to increased traffic from 1992 to 2000. The RF from other aviation induced cirrus clouds might be as large as the present estimate of the total RF (without cirrus). However, our present knowledge on these aircraft-induced cirrus clouds is too poor to provide a reliable estimate of the associated RF.
High-performance trajectory prediction is at the core of strategic airspace capacity and safety enhancement. Current state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models are based on a three-dimensional point-mass model, using often predefined settings from existing databases rather than real-time information available onboard the aircraft to determine aircraft dynamics. As a result trajectory prediction performance is limited by the accuracy of these settings. This paper addresses this limitation and proposes a high-performance four-dimensional trajectory prediction model for civil aircraft. The model includes a new flight-control system and an enhanced flight-script. The latter incorporates new taxonomy and content enabling better definition of aircraft intent. The performance of the trajectory prediction model is assessed using data acquired during a real flight trial, and shown to be significantly better than the current models. It has the potential to meet the required navigation performance for departure, en-route and non-precision-approach phases of flight.
Aviation makes a significant contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing. The impacts arise from emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and nitrogen oxides, and from changes in cloudiness in the upper troposphere. An important but poorly understood component of this forcing is caused by ‘contrail cirrus’—a type of cloud that consist of young line-shaped contrails and the older irregularly shaped contrails that arise from them. Here we use a global climate model that captures the whole life cycle of these man-made clouds to simulate their global coverage, as well as the changes in natural cloudiness that they induce. We show that the radiative forcing associated with contrail cirrus as a whole is about nine times larger than that from line-shaped contrails alone. We also find that contrail cirrus cause a significant decrease in natural cloudiness, which partly offsets their warming effect. Nevertheless, net radiative forcing due to contrail cirrus remains the largest single radiative-forcing component associated with aviation. Our findings regarding global radiative forcing by contrail cirrus will allow their effects to be included in studies assessing the impacts of aviation on climate and appropriate mitigation options.
The formation of contrails (condensation trails) from aircraft exhaust has been investigated since 1919. Related studies are reviewed. The thermodynamical foundation of the Appleman threshold criterion for contrail formation has been first described by SCHMIDT in 1940. The Schmidt/Appleman criterion is reexamined, including the effects of the conversion of part of the combustion heat into kinetic energy of the motions in the wake of the aircraft causing higher threshold temperatures for contrail formation than without this conversion. The criterion is also derived including the kinetic energy of the jet plumes but this effect changes the threshold temperature only a little. The analysis is applied for a measured test case with the so-called ATTAS aircraft and for typical modern wide-body aircraft of type B747. If the aircraft would burn liquid hydrogen (liquid methane) instead of kerosene fuel, contrails would appear at typically 10 K (4.5 K) higher ambient temperatures and would be geometrically thicker and longer. However, this does not necessarily mean that such alternative fuels have a stronger impact on climate because such fuels will cause less and larger particles with smaller optical thickness and faster sedimentation.
Key performance indicators (KPI) for trajectory prediction accuracy were developed by applying factor analysis to a wider set of accuracy metrics obtained from a literature search. A Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted under operationally-representative conditions to provide a data set for the analysis. It is shown that the derived KPI can be linearly combined to estimate the larger set of metrics. These estimates provide good rank correlation with the actual metrics computed. KPIs can describe both the accuracy of trajectory prediction in addition to the quality of the input data supplied to a trajectory predictor. Various applications of these KPI are discussed including the specification of requirements on prediction performance. While certain KPI are described in this study, various values could have been selected. It is argued that TP KPIs should be made consistent with measurements used to express vertical and longitudinal RNP as those get defined
In dieser Arbeit werden anhand von drei Datensätzen (MLS, MOZAIC, korrigierten Radiosonden) sogenannte eisübersättigte Regionen (Ice SuperSaturated Regions, ISSRs) beschrieben, wolkenfreie Regionen in der oberen Troposphäre bzw. unteren Stratosphäre, in denen die relative Feuchte über Eis die Sättigung überschreitet. ISSRs sind Gebiete, in denen Zirren entstehen können. Zunächst werden die Häufigkeitsverteilungen der relativen Feuchte im Tropopausenbereich untersucht. Diese folgen im Allgemeinen exponentiellen Verteilungen, mit unterschiedlichen Signaturen in Troposphäre und Stratosphäre. Durch eine Anpassung der Verteilungen mit einem exponentiellen Modell können Signaturen von Wolken in den Daten erkannt und getrennt ausgewertet werden. Anhand von MLS und MOZAIC Daten werden globale Häufigkeitsverteilungen von ISSRs aufgestellt, diese werden zusätzlich mit Verteilungen von Zirren und subvisible cirrus (SVC, aus SAGE II Daten) verglichen. Dabei wird eine qualitative Übereinstimmung der Verteilungen von ISSRs f¨ur MLS und MOZAIC Daten festgestellt. Außerdem kann eine hohe Korrelation der Verteilungen von ISSRs und SVC nachgewiesen werden. Anhand von Radiosonden können zum ersten Mal Vertikalprofile von eisübersättigten Schichten untersucht werden, dabei werden Häufigkeitsverteilungen erstellt und einige Eigenschaften wie Temperatur und vertikale Ausdehnungen bestimmt. Mit Hilfe dieser drei Datensätze werden die Eigenschaften von ISSRs im Gegensatz zu der sie umgebenden untersättigten Luft untersucht. ISSRs sind im allgemeinen kälter und/oder feuchter als untersättigte Luftmassen. Daraus kann auf mögliche Entstehungsformen der ISSRs in den verschiedenen geographischen und dynamischen Regionen geschlossen werden. Außerden werden zus¨atzlich mittlere Übersättigung und Pfadlängen der ISSRs untersucht. Anhand von zwei ausgewählten Fällen wird die sehr unterschiedliche Entstehung und Entwicklung von ISSRs mit Hilfe des Lagrange' schen Modells LAGRANTO, operationellen ECMWF Analysen und METEOSAT Bildern dargestellt.
State Parameter tn+1 1. n+1 Pos r[x;y] [° WGS84] 2. n+1 PA r
- Thrust
- Ft
n Thrust (FT,sel) [N]
State Parameter tn+1
1. n+1 Pos r[x;y] [° WGS84]
2. n+1 PA r[h] [ft]
3. n+1 Heading (HDG) [°N]
4. n+1 FPA (sel [°]
5. n+1 BA (sel) [°]
6. n+1 CAS (VCAS) [kts]
7. n+1 Mass (mtotal) [kg]
8. n+1 Thrust (FT,sel) [N]
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