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Keeping promises: VAAs and political representation

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Keeping'promises:'VAAs'and'political'representation!
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Preliminary'draft:'Please'do'not'cite'without'the'authors’'permission'
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1.'Introduction!
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To# what# extent# does# the# post.electoral# legislative# behaviour# of# Members# of# Parliament#
(MPs)# correspond# to#their# pre.electoral# policy# positions# captured# by# Voting# Advice#
Applications#(VAAs)?#
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2.'Theory!
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' '
3.'Comparing'the'Netherlands'and'Switzerland!
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3.1'Switzerland!
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2*!<60!,25$<-3W!-0&$*2-,0/!I3!<60!#I2'0.10$<&2$0/!@-2@0-<&0;!2*!<60!0=0,<2-#=!;3;<014!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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;3;<01! &;! /0,0$<-#=&;0/! #$/! <60! ,#$<2$#=! #$/! =2,#=! @#-<&0;!0$e23!,2$;&/0-#I=0!#5<2$2134!
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Party'
Political'position'
Seats'in'the'
Seats'in'the'
Seats'in'the'
'
'
National'Council'
Council'of'States'
Government'
!
!
!
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@,A+'
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860!0=0,<2-#=!;3;<01!*2-!<60!*&-;<!,6#1I0-!5;0;!<60!@-2@2-<&2$#=!/UM2$/<!=#-T0;<!#'0-#T0!10<62/!&$!
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0=0,<&2$!:#;!e5;<4^W!:6&,6!&;!'0-3!=2:!&$!,21@#-#<&'0!<0-1;!)F#-=i2'W!BCDB74!!
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4.'Data'and'research'design!
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,25$<-&0;! 5$/0-! ;,-5<&$3! &$! <0-1;! 2*! <60&-! '2<&$T! ;3;<01;! #$/! <60! :#3! <60! -0=#<&2$;! I0<:00$! <60!
0Z0,5<&'0! #$/! <60! =0T&;=#<&'0! #-0! ;6#@0/! 0$<#&=! <6#<! &$,2$T-50$,0! &$! <60! ,#;0! 2*! ?:&<(0-=#$/! &;!
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,25$<-3.;@0,&*&,!*#,<2-;4!
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@#-<&,&@#<&2$! &$! <60! HAA! #;! :0==! #;! #I;<0$<&2$! 2-! #I;0$<00&;1! &$! '2<0;! :0-0! <-0#<0/! #;! 1&;;&$T!
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#$;:0-! 1#<,60;! :&<6! <60! ,2--0;@2$/&$T! 30;l$2! '2<0! &$! @#-=&#10$<W! 2<60-:&;0! @2;&<&2$#=!
&$,2$T-50$,0!)C7!&;!#;;510/4![05<-#=!@2;&<&2$;!&$!<60!HAA!2-!#I;<0$<&2$;l#I;0$<00&;1!&$!@#-=&#10$<!
#-0!<-0#<0/!#;!1&;;&$T!/#<#4B!!
1"20,'D4'N"+!#O'=6%&;!P,&6,?'2,+8,,&'JQQ'"&$8,!'"&('0,;#$0"+#<,'2,7"<#%P!'=(,9,&(,&+'<"!#"20,?'
'
Legislative'behaviour'
'
Yes'
No'
a)'smartvote'
'
'
%5==3!#T-00!
D!
C!
S0#J=3!#T-00!
D!
C!
S0#J=3!/&;#T-00!
C!
D!
%5==3!/&;#T-00!
C!
D!
b)'StemWijzer'
Yes'
No'
AT-00!
D!
C!
[0&<60-!
.!
.!
>&;#T-00!
C!
D!
c)'Kieskompas'
Yes'
No'
%5==3!#T-00!
D!
C!
AT-00!
D!
C!
[05<-#=!
.!
.!
>&;#T-00!
C!
D!
%5==3!/&;#T-00!
C!
D!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
B! A=<0-$#<&'0!/0*&$&<&2$;!:&<6!#!6&T60-!$51I0-!2*!2-/&$#=!,#<0T2-&0;!#-0!,2$,0&'#I=04!860!5$/0-=3&$T!-#<&2$#=0!
*2-!<60!I&$#-3!2@<&2$!&;!<6#<!12-0!,#<0T2-&0;!-5$!<60!-&;J!2*!,-0#<&$T!<22!1#$3!G#-<&*&,&#=K!;5I/&'&;&2$;!
:6&,6!&$,-0#;0!;<#<&;<&,#=!$2&;0!:&<625<!6#'&$T!;5I;<#$<&#=!10#$&$T!&$!-0#=&<34!?<#<&;<&,#=!<0;<;!*2-!<60!?:&;;!
,#;0!:&<6!;5,6!#=<0-$#<&'0!;@0,&*&,#<&2$;!:&<6!5@!<2!*&'0!2-/&$#=!,#<0T2-&0;!)2-/0-0/!=2T&<!12/0=;7!6#'0!
=#-T0=3!,2$*&-10/!<60!-0;5=<;!2*!25-!I&$#-3!-0;@2$;0!12/0=4!
/%+,R![2$.@#-<&,&@#<&2$!&$!<60!HAA!)2-!#!$05<-#=!2-!$0&<60-!#$;:0-7!#;!:0==!#;!#I;<0$<&2$!'2<0;!2-!#I;0$<00&;1!
#-0!<-0#<0/!#;!1&;;&$T!'#=50;4!
!
8#I=0;!E!<2! a!;62:!<60!/&;<-&I5<&2$!2*!<60!/0@0$/0$<! '#-&#I=0;W!#;! :0==!#;!<60! $51I0-! 2*!'2<0;!@0-!
@#-<3!&$,=5/0/!&$!<60!/#<#;0<4!
1"20,'H4'>#$+!#2P+#%&'#&'+7,'(,9,&(,&+'<"!#"20,'=9,!6,&+";,$'#&'2!"6R,+$?'
!
90T&;=#<&'0!I06#'&25-!
!
p0;!
[2!
82<#=!
a)'smartvote'
'
'
'
%5==3!#T-00!
DgCD!)Ea4^7!
DdE!)E4`7!
D]d`!)E^4E7!
S0#J=3!#T-00!
E^`!)]4E7!
BBd!)`4]7!
dBC!)DE4D7!
S0#J=3!/&;#T-00!
D`d!)E4D7!
EEg!)g4D7!
`]E!)DC4B7!
%5==3!/&;#T-00!
DDd!)B4`7!
Ddaa!)E`4^7!
DggD!)Eg4`7!
82<#=!
BEag!)`^4g7!
BE]D!)aC4E7!
`gE]!)DCC7!
!
!
!
!
b)'StemWijzer'
'
'
'
AT-00!
dg!)EE4a7!
E`!)Dg4C7!
DCD!)aC4a7!
[0&<60-!
E!)D4a7!
C!)C4C7!
E!)D4a7!
>&;#T-00!
B`!)DB4C7!
gB!)Ed4C7!
^d!)`]4C7!
82<#=!
DCd!)`g4C7!
^`!)aE4C7!
BCC!)DCC7!
!
!
!
!
c)'Kieskompas'
'
'
'
%5==3!#T-00!
`D!)Da4g7!
]!)E4D7!
`^!)D]4]7!
AT-00!
`C!)Da4E7!
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gE!)Bg4^7!
[05<-#=!
g!)B4g7!
D]!)d4^7!
Ba!)^4d7!
>&;#T-00!
D`!)a4`7!
d`!)B`4a7!
g]!)B^4^7!
%5==3!/&;#T-00!
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EE!)DB4d7!
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82<#=!
DCa!)`C4B7!
Dad!)a^4]7!
BdD!)DCC7!
!
1"20,'B4'/P:2,!'%A'N5$'"&('N5'<%+,$'=9,!'9"!+S?'#&'+7,'("+"$,+'=-8#$$'6"$,?'
'
Number'of'
MPs'included'
Number'of'
MP'votes'included'
Average'number'of'
votes'per'MP'
bHF!
E]!
gEd!
D^4`!
%>F!
``!
gC`!
Dd4C!
iF?!
Bg!
`g`!
Dg4d!
?F!
dB!
DUECD!
BD4C!
?HF!
dD!
DUB`E!
BC4E!
X<60-!@#-<&0;!
BB!
E`B!
Da4a!
82<#=!
Ba`!
`U]CC!
D]4^!
!
' '
1"20,'M4'/P:2,!'%A'JQQ'$+"+,:,&+$'"&('&P:2,!'%A'<%+,$'9,!'9"!+S'#&'+7,'("+"$,+'=>P+67'6"$,?'
'
Number'of'VAA'statements'
included'
Number'of'
votes'included'
b>A!
`a!
DDd!
b6-&;<0$O$&0!
``!
DDB!
>dd!
`B!
DCd!
i-20$9&$J;!
`]!
DBE!
F'/A!
`a!
DDa!
F'/>q!
D^!
aC!
FHH!
`]!
DB]!
?iF!
`]!
DBd!
?F!
`a!
DBE!
HH>!
`^!
DB^!
82<#=!
.!
DUDB]!
[2<0R!86&;!0Z,=5/0;!;<#<010$<;!*2-!:6&,6!@#-<&0;!@-2'&/0/!$05<-#=!2-!$0&<60-!#$;:0-;W!*2-!:6&,6!
,2$T-50$,0!,#$$2<!I0!10#;5-0/4!q!r!F'/>!:#;!$2<!&$,=5/0/!&$!T#,$R%:9"$4!
!
4.3'Hypotheses'and'explanatory'variables!
86&;!;0,<&2$!/0'0=2@;! <60!63@2<60;0;!#$/! =&;<;!<60!&$/0@0$/0$<!'#-&#I=0;!2*!<60! -0T-0;;&2$!12/0=;4!
S0!*&-;<!=&;<!<60!;0<!2*!'#-&#I=0;W!:6&,6!:&==!#@@0#-!&$!I2<6!,#;0!;<5/&0;W!I0*2-0!<5-$&$T!<2!<60!,25$<-3.
;@0,&*&,!*#,<2-;4!
!
`4E4D!b2112$!0Z@=#$#<2-3!'#-&#I=0;!
Strength'of'political'preference:!PF;!2-!@#-<&0;!<6#<!-0'0#=!;<-2$T!@-0*0-0$,0;!&$!<60!HAA!;5-'03!#-0!
=0;;!=&J0=3!<2!,6#$T0!<60&-!1&$/!/5-&$T!@#-=&#10$<#-3!/0I#<0;4!L$!<60!?:&;;!,2$<0Z<W!;<-2$T!@-0*0-0$,0!
10#$;!<6#<!#!;<-#&T6<!30;l$2!#$;:0-!);<-2$T=3!#T-00l/&;#T-007!:#;!T&'0$!<2!#$!&<01W!:6&=0!<60!:0#J=3!
#T-00l/&;#T-00!2@<&2$!&;!<#J0$!#;!#$!&$/&,#<2-!*2-!:0#J!@-0*0-0$,0!;<-5,<5-04!A!;&1&=#-!#@@-2#,6!6#;!
I00$!5;0/!*2-!<60!>5<,6!T#,$R%:9"$4!A;!<60!-+,:8#UV,!'5;0;!#!<6-00.@2&$<!#$;:0-!;,#=0W!:0! ,#$$2<!
10#;5-0!<60!;<-0$T<6!2*!<60!@-0*0-0$,0;!*-21!<6#<!HAA4!
Positional'centrality'(or'policy'extremism)'of'a'party:'F#-<&0;!#<!I2<6!0$/;!2$!<60!,2112$!=0*<.-&T6<!
;,#=0! #-0! 12-0! 0Z<-010! &$! <60&-! ;<#$/@2&$<;! ):6&,6! &;! I#;&,#==3! :63! <603! #-0! =2,#<0/! <60-07W! 12-0!
&/02=2T3./-&'0$! #$/! =0;;! :&==&$T! <2! ,21@-21&;0! :&<6! 2<60-;4! L$! ,2$<-#;<W! @#-<&0;! &$! <60! )I-2#/=3!
/0*&$0/7! ,0$<-0! 2*! <60! @2=&<&,#=! ;3;<01! 5;5#==3! 62=/! =0;;! ;<5II2-$! '&0:;! #$/! <65;! #-0! :0=,210!
@#-<$0-;! &$! ,0$<-0.=0*<! 2-! ,0$<-0.-&T6<! ,2#=&<&2$;W! I0! &<! ,2$'0$<&2$#=! @#-=&#10$<#-3! T2'0-$10$<!
,2#=&<&2$;! =&J0! &$! <60! [0<60-=#$/;! 2-! =0T &;=#<&'0! #==&#$,0;! 2$! #! ,#;0.I3.,#;0! I#;&;! =&J0! &$! ?:&<(0-=#$/!
)*2-! <60! ?:&;;! ,#;0! ;00! M5T! #$/! ?,&#-&$&! BCC^Y! "0T60-! D^^^Y! h-&0;&! BCCDY! ?,6:#-(! BCC^74! S0!
63@2<60;&;0!<6#<!<60! 12-0! 0Z<-010!)<60!=0;;!,0$<-#=7! <60!@#-<3!@2;&<&2$!&;W! <60! 6&T60-! &<;! @2;&<&2$#=!
,2$T-50$,04!%2-!<60!>5<,6!,#;0W!:0!5;0!<60!/&;<#$,0!2*!&$/&'&/5#=!@#-<&0;U!@2;&<&2$;!*-21!<60!,0$<-0!
2$!<60!=0*<.-&T6<!;,#=0W!#;!10#;5-0/!I3!<60!b6#@0=!M&==!NZ@0-<!?5-'03!)BCDC74!L$!<60!?:&;;!,#;0W!:0!5;0!
<60!#'0-#T0!@#-<3!;5,,0;;!-#<0;!&$!@#-=&#10$<#-3!'2<0;!<2!10#;5-0!<60!@2;&<&2$#=!,0$<-#=&<3!2*!#!@#-<34!
Government' participation:!X$! <60! 2$0! 6#$/W! &$! ,2$'0$<&2$#=! @#-=&#10$<#-3! ;3;<01;! )=&J0! <60!
[0<60-=#$/;7! &<! &;! 1#&$=3! 5@! <2! <60! T2'0-$10$<! ,2#=&<&2$! <2! *5=*&=! <60&-! @=0/T0;4! 8603! #-0! 5$/0-!
<25T60-!2I;0-'#<&2$!I3!<60!10/&#! :60<60-! <603! -0#==3!/2!<6#$!<60! 2@@2;&<&2$! @#-<&0;!:62;0!6#$/;!
#-0!<&0/!#$/!2*<0$!;<-5TT=0!<2!T0<!<60&-!,2-0!&;;50;!2$!<60!=0T&;=#<&'0!#T0$/#4!X$!<60!2<60-!6#$/W!2$0!
,#$! #=;2! #-T50! <6#<! <60! -0;@2$;&I&=&<3! 2*! T2'0-$10$<! 0$<#&=;! 6&T60-! @2=&<&,#=! *=0Z&I&=&<3! I2<6! :&<6!
-0T#-/! <2!&$&<&#=!,2#=&<&2$!$0T2<&#<&2$;W!:6&,6!#=12;<! &$0'&<#I=3! =0#/;!<2!<60!#I#$/2$&$T!2*!0=0,<&2$!
@=0/T0;W! #$/! :&<6! -0T#-/! <2! ,6#$T&$T! @2=&<&,#=! ,2$/&<&2$;! #*<0-! <60! T2'0-$10$<! 6#;! I00$! *2-10/!
)P#$;0-T6! #$/! 8621;2$! BCCgR! EBC74! X@@2;&<&2$! @#-<&0;W! &$! ,2$<-#;<W! /2! $2<! 6 #'0! <2! )#$/! ,#$$2<7!
@-2'0!<6#<!<60&-!@2=&,&0;!#-0!I0<<0-!*2-!<60!,25$<-3Y!<603!,#$!e5;<!,=#&1!<6#<!<603!:25=/4!L<!<65;!;001;!
0#;&0-!*2-!$2$.T2'0-$10$<#=!@#-<&0;!<6#$!*2-!<60!T2'0-$10$<!<2!;<&,J!#/#1#$<=3!<2!<60&-!@-0.0=0,<&2$!
@2;&<&2$;4! A==! &$! #==W! <60! @-0,&;0! 0**0,<! 2*! @#-<&,&@#<&2$! &$! T2'0-$10$<! 2$! @2;&<&2$#=! ,2$;&;<0$,3! &;!
<602-0<&,#==3! #1I&T525;!#$/! =&J0=3! /0@0$/;! 2$! <60! &1@2-<#$,0! 2*! <60! *2-15=#<&2$! 2*! ,2#=&<&2$!
#T-0010$<;4! L*! T2'0-$10$<! @#-<&0;! #-0! <&0/! ;<-&,<=3! <2! <60! ,2#=&<&2$! #T-0010$<W! :0! :25=/! 0Z@0,<! #!
=2:0-! /0T-00! 2*! ,2$T-50$<!'2<0-;!*2-!<60;0! @#-<&0;! ,21@#-0/!<2!<60!2@@2;&<&2$! ),*4! M&Z! #$/! [25-3!
BCDD74!A=<625T6!?:&<(0-=#$/o;!@2=&<&,#=!;3;<01!:&<6! &<;!I-2#/.I#;0/!*25-!<2!*&'0.@#-<3!,2$;2,&#<&2$#=!
T2'0-$10$<! /20;! $2<! Q5&<0! *2==2:! @#-=&#10$<#-3! ,2$'0$<&2$;W! :0! ;<&==! &$,2-@2-#<0! <6&;! '#-&#I=0! &$!
2-/0-!<2!,#@<5-0!@2;;&I=0!0**0,<;4!
Party' core' issues/Issue' saliency:!860! ;#=&0$,0! #@@-2#,6! @2;<5=#<0;! <6#<! @#-<3! 1#$&*0;<2;! 1#&$=3!
6&T6=&T6<!&;;50;!<6#<!#-0!-0=0'#$<!#$/!&1@2-<#$<!<2!<60!@#-<3!&$!Q50;<&2$!)\5/T0!#$/!M2**0-I0-<!D^^CY!
h=&$T01#$$! 0<! #=4! D^^`7W! :60-0#;! HAA! Q50;<&2$$#&-0;! #-0! ,21@2;0/! 2*! <60! *5==! -#$T0! 2*! @2=&<&,#=!
#-0#;4! S0! #;;510! <6#<! 0=0,<&2$! @=0/T0;! ,2$,0-$&$T! &;;50;W! :6&,6! #-0! @#-<&,5=#-=3! &1@2-<#$<! <2! #$!
PFW!#-0! 12-0! 2*<0$! -0;@0,<0/! <6#$! @-0;51#I=3! &--0=0'#$<! &;;50;4! S0! #-0! 5;&$T! 0Z@0-<! ;5-'03!
0;<&1#<0;!2*!@#-<3!&;;50!;#=&0$,3!*-21!<60!b6#@0=!M&==!NZ@0-<!?5-'03!BCDCE4!NZ@0-<;!&$/&,#<0/!<2!:6#<!
0Z<0$<!#$!&;;50!#-0#!:#;!;#=&0$<! *2-!#!@#-<3!2$!#! ;,#=0!-#$T&$T!*-21!C!<2!DC4! %2-!<60!>5<,6!,#;0W!<60!
-0=0'#$<!b6#@0=!M&==!;,#=0;!6#'0!I00$!1#<,60/!<2!<60!&;;50!,#<0T2-&0;!5;0/!&$!<60!<:2!HAA;4!S0!:0-0!
#I=0! <2! *&$/! #,,0@<#I=0! 1#<,60;! *2-! #==! I5<! <6-00! 2*! <60! HAA! ,#<0T2-&0;! )0/5,#<&2$W! /012,-#<&,!
-0*2-1! #$/! ,5=<5-0! #$/! 10/&#74!L$!<60!?:&;;! ,#;0! ;<5/3! :0! *&-;<!1#<,60/! <60! &;;50! #-0#;! *-21!<60!
b6#@0=!M&==!;5-'03!/&-0,<=3!<2!<60!E`!;0=0,<0/!&<01;!);00!=&;<!2*!&<01;!&$!A@@0$/&Z74!L$!#!;0,2$/!;<0@W!
&;;50;! :0-0! /0*&$0/! ;#=&0$<! &*! <60! #'0-#T0! 0Z@0-<! ;,2-0! &$! <60! b6#@0=! M&==! ;5-'03! )I2<6! 10#$! #$/!
10/&#$7!:#;!#I2'0!g4CW!:6&=0!;,2-0;!I0<:00$!d!#$/!g!:0-0!/0*&$0/!#;!:0#J=3!;#=&0$<Y!#==!2<60-!&;;50;!
:0-0!/0*&$0/!#;!$2$.;#=&0$<4!
Time'span'between'VAA'survey'and'legislative'vote:!F2=&<&,#=!,2$<0Z<;!,#$!#$/!/2!,6#$T0!2'0-!<&104!
F-0.0=0,<&2$! @2;&<&2$;! #-0! ;210<&10;! 2'0-<#J0$! I3! 0'0$<;W! :6&,6!$7%P0(!=0#/! -0;@2$;&I=0! PF;! <2!
,6#$T0!<60&-!1&$/W!I0!&<!*2-!<60!I0$0*&<!2*!<60&-!'2<0-;!2-!*2-!<60!,2112$!T22/4!S6&=0!25-!12/0=;!#-0!
5$#'2&/#I=3! o;<#<&,oW! &404! <603! /2! $2<! <#J0! &$<2! #,,25$<! ,2$<0Z<5#=! ,6#$T0;! <2! <60! ;0=0,<0/! @2=&,3!
&;;50;W!<60!<&10.;@#$!'#-&#I=0!)10#;5-0/!&$!12$<6;7!<-&0;!<2!,#@<5-0!;210!'#-&#<&2$!I3!#;;51&$T!<6#<!
<60!=2$T0-!<60!@0-&2/!I0<:00$!<60!HAA!;<#<010$<!#$/!=0T&;=#<&'0!'2<0W!<60!6&T60-!<60!@-2@0$;&<3!<6#<!
,2$/&<&2$;!,6#$T0W!#$/!:&<6!<601!<60!@2;&<&2$;!<#J0$!5@!I3!PF;4!
!
! !
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
E!S0!#-0!5;&$T!<60!BCDC!0/&<&2$W!I0,#5;0!<6&;!&$,=5/0;!12-0!-0=0'#$<!@2=&,3!/&10$;&2$;4!!
`4E4B!?:&;;.;@0,&*&,!'#-&#I=0;!
A;! #$! #=<0-$#<&'0! <2! <60! @2;&<&2$#=! ,0$<-#=&<3l@2=&,3! 0Z<-01&;1! '#-&#I=0W! :0! 01@=23! ;&1@=0! party'
dummies!&$!2-/0-!<2!0;<&1#<0!<60!0**0,<!2*!&$/&'&/5#=!@#-<&0;!2$!<60!/0@0$/0$<!'#-&#I=04!L$!<60!?:&;;!
,#;0! <60! /5113! '#-&#I=0;! &$,=5/0! <60! %>F! )9&I0-#=;7W! iF?! )i-00$;7W! ?F! )?2,&#=./012,-#<;7W!<60!?HF!
)[#<&2$#=.,2$;0-'#<&'0;7W! #$/! <60! I5$,6! 2*! ;1#==! @#-<&0;4! X5-! -0*0-0$,0! ,#<0T2-3! &;! <60! bHF!
)b6-&;<&#$./012,-#<;74!860!&$,=5;&2$!2*!@#-<3!/511&0;!&1@=&0;!<60!#I#$/2$10$<!2*!<60!@#-<3!-#$/21!
0**0,<;!=0'0=!&$!<60!12/0=!;@0,&*&,#<&2$;4!
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#-0!T2'0-$10$<!I&==;!)6&T6!=#:.1#J&$T!-0=0'#$,07!#$/!E!#-0!@#-=&#10$<#-3!12<&2$;!)=2:!-0=0'#$,07Y!
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,2$,0-$!12<&2$;W!:0!2$=3!&$,=5/0!<6&;!'#-&#I=0!*2-!<60!?:&;;!,#;04!
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<60!1#e2-&<3!2*! <60! @#-<3!T-25@!<#J0;!5@! <60!;#10!;<#$,0!2$!<60! &;;504!L*!#$! PF!*&$/;!25<!#*<0-! <60!
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=&J0=3! /50! <2! @00-.T-25@! @-0;;5-0W! #;! ?:&;;! @#-<3! T-25@! =0#/0-;! /2! $2<! 6#'0! ;<-2$T! *2-1#=!
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District'magnitude:!860!0=0,<2-#=!/&;<-&,<;!#-0!<60! Bd! ?:&;;!,#$<2$;!:62;0! ;&(0!'#-&0;!I0<:00$!2$0!
#$/! E`! ;0#<;W! #,,2-/&$T! <2! @2@5=#<&2$! *&T5-0;4! 860! '2<&$T! ;3;<01! &;! *&-;<.@#;<.<60.@2;<! &$! d! ;&$T=0.
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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10/&51.;&(0/!/&;<-&,<;74!
Incumbency:!860! 0**0,<!2*!&$,51I0$,3!2$!@=0/T0!*5=*&=10$<!&;!<602-0<&,#==3!#1I&T525;R!X$! <60!2$0!
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&$,51I0$<;!1&T6<!I0!12-0!/0<#,60/W!I2<6!*-21! <60&-!@#-<3!#$/! <60&-!'2<0-;4!8603! 6#'0!T#&$0/!;0=*.
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/0=0T#<&2$!#$/!I-2#/0$!@2=&<&,#=!=00:#3!)?65T#-<!0<!#=4!BCCaY!8#'&<;!BCC^74!
Year' of' vote:!860!@0-&2/!2*! 0Z#1&$#<&2$! )BCCE.BCC^7!6#/!I00$!#!@0-&2/! 2*!2$.T2&$T!,6#$T04!?:&;;!
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VAA' source:!A;! <60! #$#=3;&;! *2-! <60!>5<,6! ,#;0! &$,=5/0;! ;<#<010$<;! *-21! <:2! /&**0-0$<! HAA;W! :0!
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Certainty'of'the' match' between' the' VAA' statement'and'the'parliamentary'proposalsR! &<!&;!$0#-=3!
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!
4.4'Research'method!
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!
5.'Explaining'positional'(in[)congruence!
5.1'Empirical'analysis'of'the'Dutch'case!
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6.'Conclusions!
S6&=0!<60!?:&;;!#$/!>5<,6!@2=&<&,#=!;3;<01;!#-0!I2<6!,6#-#,<0-&(0/!#;!,2$;0$;5#=!)9&e@6#-<!D^^^7W!<60!
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,#$/&/#<0.,0$<-0/!0=0,<2-#=!;3;<01!<60!,2$T-50$,0!I0<:00$!@-0.0=0,<2-#=!@2=&,3!@2;&<&2$;!2*!
,#$/&/#<0;!#$/!<60&-!@#-=&#10$<#-3!'2<&$T!I06#'&25-!&;!I0;<!0Z@=#&$0/!I3!=22J&$T!#<!<60!/&;#T-0010$<!
:&<6!<60!@#-<3!T-25@W!@-0*0-0$,0!;<-0$T<6W!T2'0-$10$<!@#-<&,&@#<&2$!#$/!@#-<3!,0$<-#=&<34!862;0!:62!
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L$!<60!>5<,6!,#;0W!:0!,25=/!$2<!2I;0-'0!<60!&$/&'&/5#=.=0'0=!*#,<2-;!<6#<!#**0,<!,2$T-50$,0!&$!
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2@@2;&<&2$!@#-<&0;!#-0!*-00!<2!;<&,J!<2!<60&-!@=0/T0;!)M2=(6#,J0-!BCCB74!A=<625T6!2$0!1&T6<!0Z@0,<!
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!
!
References!
A$/0:0TW!c4!\4!#$/!"4!"4!A4!8621#;;0$!)BCCa74!P2/0;!2*!F2=&<&,#=!c0@-0;0$<#<&2$R!82:#-/!#!$0:!
83@2=2T34!@,;#$0"+#<,'-+P(#,$']P"!+,!0S!EC)`7R!aCg.aB]4!
A$/0:0TW!c4!\4W!z!8621#;;0$W!"4!"4!A4!)BCDD74!F#<6:#3;!<2!@#-<3!5$&<3R!?#$,<&2$;W!=23#=<3W!
6212T0$0&<3!#$/!/&'&;&2$!2*!=#I25-!&$!<60!>5<,6!@#-=&#10$<4!5"!+S'5%0#+#6$W!3X)a7R!daaVdgB!
\=#&;W!A4W!z!\2/0<W!P4!A4!)BCCd74!>20;!F-2@2-<&2$#=!c0@-0;0$<#<&2$!%2;<0-!b=2;0-!b2$T-50$,0!
\0<:00$!b&<&(0$;!#$/!F2=&,3!P#J0-;j!F%:9"!"+#<,'5%0#+#6"0'-+P(#,$W!HK)DC7R!DB`EVDBdB4!!
\2:=0-W!?4!#$/!>4!%#--0=!)D^^E74!90T&;=#<2-!?6&-J&$T!#$/!H2<0-!P2$&<2-&$TR!L1@#,<;!2*!N5-2@0#$!
F#-=&#10$<!N=0,<2-#=!?3;<01;!5@2$!90T&;=#<2-.H2<0-!c0=#<&2$;6&@;4!^%P!&"0'%A'F%::%&'N"!R,+'
-+P(#,$!EB)D7R!`a.d^4!
\5/T0W!L4!#$/!c4!M2**0-I0-<!)D^^C74!P#$/#<0;!#$/!F2=&,3!X5<@5<;R!O4?4!F#-<3!F=#<*2-1;!#$/!%0/0-#=!
NZ@0$/&<5-0;4!Q:,!#6"&'5%0#+#6"0'-6#,&6,'_,<#,8!]`)D7R!DDD.ED4!
b#-03W!"4!#$/!P4!?65T#-<!)D^^a74!L$,0$<&'0;!<2!b5=<&'#<0!#!F0-;2$#=!H2<0R!#!c#$J!X-/0-&$T!2*!N=0,<2-#=!
%2-15=#;Y'`0,6+%!"0'-+P(#,$!D`)`7R!`Dg.E^4!
b2;<0==2W!c4!#$/!8621;2$W!c4!)BCC]74!N=0,<&2$!F=0/T0;!#$/!<60&-!N$#,<10$<!&$!b2#=&<&2$!i2'0-$10$<;R!
A!b21@#-#<&'0!A$#=3;&;!2*!L-0=#$/4!^%P!&"0'%A'`0,6+#%&$Z'5P20#6'a9#&#%&'b'5"!+#,$W!3\)E7R!BE^VBad4!
b2ZW!i4!)D^^g74!N"R#&;'J%+,$'F%P&+4'-+!"+,;#6'F%%!(#&"+#%&'#&'+7,'c%!0()$'`0,6+%!"0'-S$+,:$4!
b#1I-&/T0R!b#1I-&/T0!O$&'0-;&<3!F-0;;4!
>#1T##-/W!N4!)D^^a74!M2:!F#-<&0;!b2$<-2=!b211&<<00!P01I0-;4!L$!>x-&$TW!M4!)0/Y?Z'5"!0#":,&+$'"&('
N"U%!#+S'_P0,'#&'c,$+,!&'`P!%9,4!%-#$J*5-<!#1!P#&$R!b#1@5;l?<4!P#-<&$U;!F-0;;!)EC].B`74!
>x-&$TW!M4!)D^^a74!8&10!#;!#!;,#-,0!-0;25-,0R!i2'0-$10$<!,2$<-2=!2*!<60!#T0$/#4!5"!0#":,&+$'"&('
:"U%!#+S'!P0,'#&'c,$+,!&'`P!%9,4!b#1@5;!H0-=#T!)BBEVB`d74!
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' '
Appendix!
List'of'the'34'smartvote'items'/'legislative'votes'
No.'
Issue'
Issue'area'
(Chapel'Hill'2010'
survey)'
smartvote'
version'
Date'of'legislative'
vote'
D!
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... This kind of spatial voting analysis is not the only way in which parliamentary voting data can be used, however. Fivaz et al (2014), for example, match parliamentary voting behaviour to election pledges in The Netherlands and Switzerland. For her dissertation, Van Vonno (2016) used the data to calculate the strength of party group voting unity over time, verifying the widely held assumption that party unity is 'nearly complete' in the Dutch Second Chamber (Andeweg and Thomassen, 2011, p. 658). ...
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This research note introduces the Dutch Parliamentary Behaviour Dataset, a record of parliamentary (voting) behaviour in the Dutch Tweede Kamer (Second Chamber, House of Representatives) since 1945. The Dutch Parliament was often excluded from past comparative work on legislative (voting) behaviour because behavioural data were not available in an accessible format. By digitizing the parliamentary archives and compiling the data in a structured format, we have created a comparatively rich dataset, that is made publically accessible for other researchers. In this research note, we describe the dataset and data collection process and provide some examples as how the data might be used in the growing quantitative literature on legislative behaviour.
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This article assesses the claim that proportional representation (PR) fosters a closer correspondence between the views of citizens and the positions of the government. The study uses the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data set and compares respondents’ self-placements on a Left-Right scale with placements of cabinet parties’ locations in 31 election studies. The authors argue that PR has two contradictory consequences. On one hand, PR leads to more parties and more choice for voters; but these parties are less centrist, and this increases the overall distance between voters and parties. On the other hand, PR increases the likelihood of coalition governments; this pulls the government toward the center of the policy spectrum and reduces the distance between the government and voters. These two contradictory effects of PR wash out, and the net overall impact of PR on congruence is nil. The data support the authors’ interpretation.
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The book proposes a unifying conception which shows that the differences between 'majoritarian', 'consensus' and other forms of representative democracy are superficial compared to what unites them. The common element is the empowerment of the median voter by making the party (s)he votes for the median party in the legislature. Comparative evidene covering 21 democracies from 1950-1995 is assembled to check out the descriptive credentials of this idea, in contrast to the government mandate which forms the normal description and justification of democracy as providing 'a necessary link between popular preferences and public policy'. Although, spontaneous majorities rarely emerge, median voter - median party correspondences do (72% of all governments, 82% under PR). Policy correspondence, distortion, long term bias, and responsiveness are examined in both static and dynamic terms. They reveal that underneath short-term fluctuations, the long-term equilibrium positions of governments and median voters map each other closely. Many other questions about democracy are also raised and investigated - economic and retrospective voting (' kicking the rascals out'): policy incrementalism, etc. - giving the book an appeal to different groups of specialists in political science. The comparative data on voting, on electoral party and government preferences, and on actual policy outputs are unsurpassed with regards to comprehensiveness over nations and time.
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The study of party unity and its determinants is conceptually confusing, with terms such as 'party discipline' and 'party cohesion' used to denote both dependent and independent variables. Moreover, while the literature recognizes both anticipated sanctions and homogeneity of preferences as pathways to party unity, it ignores possibilities such as party loyalty and the division of labour within parliamentary parties. The article examines these different pathways to party unity on the basis of five waves of interviews with nearly all members of the Lower House of the Dutch parliament. The article finds least evidence for sanctions as a major determinant of party unity, with the possible exception of parties in the governing coalition. Homogeneity, loyalty and division of labour all seem to play an important role. Party unity might seem over determined, but the more likely explanation offered is that it is a case of 'different horses for different courses'.
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Political parties in the United States are usually regarded as too weak and decentralized, too much the prey of office-seeking politicians and special interests, to function effectively as programmatic, policy-effecting agents within the separation of powers. This has been taken as a serious flaw in the U.S. version of representative democracy, prompting cycles of proposed reform; criticisms of the existing set-up as a capitalistic sham; or alternative justifications of the system as pluralist rather than strictly party democracy. Our research challenges these assumptions by demonstrating the existence of strong links between postwar (1948-1985) election platforms and governmental outputs. Platforms' sentences, coded into one of 54 subject categories, are used as indicators of programmatic emphases and are related to corresponding federal expenditure shares. Resulting regression models demonstrate the full applicability of party mandate theory to the United States, and they operationalize its U.S. variants concretely.